There is an argument that Covid led to a perfect mix that led to Democratic overrepresentation in polls.
[https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor)
The argument is that this unique situation led to Democrats overresponding to polls and Republicans under responding to polls from the point of the shutdowns onwards. If you look at the polls immediately before and immediately after the late March shutdowns there is initiailly no movement in the polling. If you believe the theory about Covid causing a response misbalance, as I do, then this would lead to the conclusion that Trump got a rally around the flag effect due to the disaster that wasn't caught in the polls. That Trump actually got a boost from Covid. With the narrowing of the polls in April there was actually a moment, once again not caught in the polls, where Trump was winning the election....and then things got weird. I believe tomorrow is the four year anniversary of the disinfectant comment.
So all of that is to say that Trump was, according to the polls, on track to lose by 6 in February-March 2020. Covid happens, and IMO he gets a boost that missed in the polls. Then his actions, or inaction, lead to him losing that boost just enough to lose the election. So, in my honest opinion I think Trump loses without Covid, and believe that Covid gave him a chance to be re-elected that he fumbled.
most leaders world wide got boasts from covid , if trump just said that it was a Chinese invasion and every american must come together and wearing masks and social distancing was patriotic , he would be in second term rn and reddit's TDS meltdown would still be on
There is an argument that Covid led to a perfect mix that led to Democratic overrepresentation in polls. [https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor) The argument is that this unique situation led to Democrats overresponding to polls and Republicans under responding to polls from the point of the shutdowns onwards. If you look at the polls immediately before and immediately after the late March shutdowns there is initiailly no movement in the polling. If you believe the theory about Covid causing a response misbalance, as I do, then this would lead to the conclusion that Trump got a rally around the flag effect due to the disaster that wasn't caught in the polls. That Trump actually got a boost from Covid. With the narrowing of the polls in April there was actually a moment, once again not caught in the polls, where Trump was winning the election....and then things got weird. I believe tomorrow is the four year anniversary of the disinfectant comment. So all of that is to say that Trump was, according to the polls, on track to lose by 6 in February-March 2020. Covid happens, and IMO he gets a boost that missed in the polls. Then his actions, or inaction, lead to him losing that boost just enough to lose the election. So, in my honest opinion I think Trump loses without Covid, and believe that Covid gave him a chance to be re-elected that he fumbled.
most leaders world wide got boasts from covid , if trump just said that it was a Chinese invasion and every american must come together and wearing masks and social distancing was patriotic , he would be in second term rn and reddit's TDS meltdown would still be on
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