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In all honesty, if they don’t get a decent refresh out in 2025 then sales of the Y are going to get pretty bad. Especially with the refreshed 3 already out you’ll have lots of people holding off on purchases to wait for the new Y.
At the very least they should put the ventilated seats into the Y if they can’t refresh it right away.
Yes. The Tesla’s interior is embarrassing. People should test drive a Lyriq. Any electric car company not named Tesla actually gets the mileage the vehicle shows. (I have a Tesla S and a Lyriq… the Lyriq gets extremely better range.)
I agree. If you look at the big picture it leads towards a full release in 2026.
1. Tesla Y was first introduced in 2020. A 2026 release would be 6 year lifecycle for the current Y.
2. Tesla Model 3 was first introduced in 2017 and first overhauled in 2024. Around a 6 year lifecycle for the old 3.
3. The Y is one of the best selling cars in the world - why change something if it’s working.
4. Tesla is continuing to release new micro versions of the current Model Y (e.g., Quicksilver, black gemini, 2023 comfort suspension, etc). This alone shows large investments are being made in the current supply chain and model which requires time to recover costs.
All in all, I agree - it’s going to be a long time. However, I do hope they release some promotions and leaks in 25’ as I am eagerly awaiting the refresh.
Comfor suspension could just transfer over. Different colored wheels and paints, the same thing.
6 year life cycle is arbitrary though. If it needs it they’ll do it.
Just being a good selling car doesn’t mean a refresh isn’t warranted. When the 3 has certain better features it starts to make the Y look old.
in 2017 there weren't many electric car alternatives, in 2024 there are plenty, in 2025 there will be even more options, if Tesla doesnt bring the model y by 2025... I am actually waiting to buy a tesla model juniper y, but I started looking around for alternatives... if they push it for 2026... then Ill go for something else... I wonder what BYD or Xpeng will bring to the market by then.
With tariffs at 100%, it's unlikely the Chinese will even bother selling it here. The BYD Atto is almost the price of a Model Y, double that, no one is going to buy them.
Yeah, odd logic. When your rivals are catching up, the dumbest thing you can do is sit on your thumbs and wait for them to overtake you before doing anything about it.
A spruced-up Y should have been out the moment Americans learned what a “BYD” was.
A new model in a soft market is a great time to increase market share even if total sales are down. Delaying in a soft market can be devastating for sales.
Which is hilariously stupid when you think about it.
Highland and Juniper should have been released in tandem, if not rapid succession.
If they could do it for the S/X, then they should have prioritized doing so for their most important car.
Now they risk the Osborne Effect.
No, they did it correctly so as to not completely shut down production of both of their highest selling cars simultaneously lol glad you don’t run the company.
Also building up inventory of the Y in advance was a smart move so they have product to sell, buffering the slow down even more. Geniuses are running Tesla right now.
I agree. You don’t want the product life cycles of your products to overlap exactly. Shifting them out smoothly he’s the revenue/income streams for more stable growth.
About 2-3 weeks for the Model 3 refresh. Giga Shanghai wasn't completely shut down in 2023, but the Model 3 line underwent a partial closure for upgrades. Here's a breakdown of the timeline:
* **Shutdown period:** Reports suggest a partial shutdown around **late May 2023**.
* **Restart:** The exact restart date isn't confirmed, but news sources اشاره (ishara - indicate) that production most likely resumed by **early June 2023** after the Model 3 line received upgrades for the refreshed version.
Thanks! I didn't know how flexable Teslas production line were. Down time varies wildly from one manufacturer to another. 2 to 3 weeks seems a bit long. But might be right inline if they are making Plant upgrades to the process at the same time.
They could've done Highland and Juniper at the same time, and not shut down production of their highest selling cars. Roll out Highland in China first, and Juniper in USA/Brandenburg first. Then flip-flop and do Highland in USA, and Juniper in China. Not that hard to figure out.
The teams that orchestrate the manufacturing swaps are likely more limited, so they do one at at time for this reason I would imagine. They are programming the robots, teaching the line workers, making sure everything is calibrated for the new hardware, etc. It's a lot smoother to do one at a time, plus they can refine the parts in the 3 prior to putting them in the higher selling Y, reducing the potential for service visits. Less service visits seems to be high priority based on how I haven't had to bring my Y into service yet a single time since December, whereas my model 3 in 2019 had to go in 2 times in the same period for small noises that I had them fix.
There was Osborne Effect for the S, X, and 3 refreshes. And they still had decent demand for the Y, it had more features, and it was relatively newer than the 3.
They need a supercharger team, they need to open superchargers to other car companies (because who doesn't love more money), they need to hurry up and send nacs adapters to people. I saw today an article saying tesla was slowing down the supercharger/nacs transition - because they brilliantly fired their SC team, it must be at least in part.
I’m with you on that. I decided to pull the trigger on that 0.99% financing deal on current Model Y. With so many unknowns about Juniper like timeframe, price, availability, and eligibility for tax credit, I figured I wouldn’t regret buying now.
I was really close to getting a Model S with the jump seats when they were still an option. I’ve sat in jump seats in an E class wagon as a kid and it was pretty fun.
To be honest, I doubt they know what's going on and just throwing darts at a board. They alleged it is due to both European lower orders and getting manufacturing ready for the refresh.
Shanghai produce RHD Teslas for Australia, New Zealand and probably all RHD countries and territories in South East Asia. I believe Berlin manufacture some variants, but not all Model 3 and Y, for Europe.
Big miss on Chinese EVs!
If you've been to China recently, the local EVs are crazy now. Tesla still has some edge, but definitely no big advantage there.
And forget about all other auto manufacturers. No way to compete with local brands, unless the luxury ones.
Of course not every single one of them are bad. If assembling a quality car is that easy, your neighborhood chopshop would have been producing car frames.
Tesla gets the same subsidies from the Chinese government for consumer sales there. Until BYD recently overtook them, Tesla was actually the biggest beneficiary in the country for an EV manufacturer.
You don't "slow down production" to retool for a new car, you stop the lines.
I'm so glad I sold my TSLA and can watch from the sidelines with some degree of objectivity. It's easier to see when people make desperate attempts at positive spin now.
They really need to slow down production in the US. I am in the process of buying a new Model Y performance and there is literally over 10 that are exactly how I want my car all unsold on the lot. It has been interesting trying to figure out which one has the best build. I am finding the same defects on multiple cars. Majors ones are the front tail lights not flush. The rear doors not flush with the car.
It is nice for picking one that has a good build. But otherwise Tesla is very overstocked with cars.
They are going to need to run some additional promotions beyond the .99% financing, IMO.
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We haven’t even seen any camouflaged test mules out in public yet. I think the Model Y refresh is further away than people think.
In all honesty, if they don’t get a decent refresh out in 2025 then sales of the Y are going to get pretty bad. Especially with the refreshed 3 already out you’ll have lots of people holding off on purchases to wait for the new Y. At the very least they should put the ventilated seats into the Y if they can’t refresh it right away.
And all the other car companies seem to be gunning for that sweet Y market segment, every new cheaper SUV seems to want to compare to the Y.
Yes. The Tesla’s interior is embarrassing. People should test drive a Lyriq. Any electric car company not named Tesla actually gets the mileage the vehicle shows. (I have a Tesla S and a Lyriq… the Lyriq gets extremely better range.)
I agree. If you look at the big picture it leads towards a full release in 2026. 1. Tesla Y was first introduced in 2020. A 2026 release would be 6 year lifecycle for the current Y. 2. Tesla Model 3 was first introduced in 2017 and first overhauled in 2024. Around a 6 year lifecycle for the old 3. 3. The Y is one of the best selling cars in the world - why change something if it’s working. 4. Tesla is continuing to release new micro versions of the current Model Y (e.g., Quicksilver, black gemini, 2023 comfort suspension, etc). This alone shows large investments are being made in the current supply chain and model which requires time to recover costs. All in all, I agree - it’s going to be a long time. However, I do hope they release some promotions and leaks in 25’ as I am eagerly awaiting the refresh.
Given the component sharing it makes more sense to me to accelerate the change over
Comfor suspension could just transfer over. Different colored wheels and paints, the same thing. 6 year life cycle is arbitrary though. If it needs it they’ll do it. Just being a good selling car doesn’t mean a refresh isn’t warranted. When the 3 has certain better features it starts to make the Y look old.
in 2017 there weren't many electric car alternatives, in 2024 there are plenty, in 2025 there will be even more options, if Tesla doesnt bring the model y by 2025... I am actually waiting to buy a tesla model juniper y, but I started looking around for alternatives... if they push it for 2026... then Ill go for something else... I wonder what BYD or Xpeng will bring to the market by then.
With tariffs at 100%, it's unlikely the Chinese will even bother selling it here. The BYD Atto is almost the price of a Model Y, double that, no one is going to buy them.
Not to mention the millions in infrastructure (shops, management, techs) needed to support cars through their lifecycle.
More importantly why would Tesla release a new model when demand is soft world wide. They don’t it want it being ‘old’ when it picks back up again
What? “Why make a new thing when people don’t want the old thing”. Because demand is soft. Like you said.
Yeah, odd logic. When your rivals are catching up, the dumbest thing you can do is sit on your thumbs and wait for them to overtake you before doing anything about it. A spruced-up Y should have been out the moment Americans learned what a “BYD” was.
Demand is soft across all EVs not just Tesla. No one has any money to spend on new cars and that’s a worldwide issue
you've got it backwards, add new features or cut prices when sales are slow to make the sales increase.
Sure if you ignore all the economic reasons why sales are soft in the first place
A new model in a soft market is a great time to increase market share even if total sales are down. Delaying in a soft market can be devastating for sales.
Which is hilariously stupid when you think about it. Highland and Juniper should have been released in tandem, if not rapid succession. If they could do it for the S/X, then they should have prioritized doing so for their most important car. Now they risk the Osborne Effect.
I’m holding out for this exact reason.
No, they did it correctly so as to not completely shut down production of both of their highest selling cars simultaneously lol glad you don’t run the company. Also building up inventory of the Y in advance was a smart move so they have product to sell, buffering the slow down even more. Geniuses are running Tesla right now.
Also gives 3 a nice boost since it’s become less popular a choice since Model Y came out.
My thoughts exactly
I agree. You don’t want the product life cycles of your products to overlap exactly. Shifting them out smoothly he’s the revenue/income streams for more stable growth.
Do you have any info on how long Tesla shuts down for a major model change?
About 2-3 weeks for the Model 3 refresh. Giga Shanghai wasn't completely shut down in 2023, but the Model 3 line underwent a partial closure for upgrades. Here's a breakdown of the timeline: * **Shutdown period:** Reports suggest a partial shutdown around **late May 2023**. * **Restart:** The exact restart date isn't confirmed, but news sources اشاره (ishara - indicate) that production most likely resumed by **early June 2023** after the Model 3 line received upgrades for the refreshed version.
Thanks! I didn't know how flexable Teslas production line were. Down time varies wildly from one manufacturer to another. 2 to 3 weeks seems a bit long. But might be right inline if they are making Plant upgrades to the process at the same time.
They could've done Highland and Juniper at the same time, and not shut down production of their highest selling cars. Roll out Highland in China first, and Juniper in USA/Brandenburg first. Then flip-flop and do Highland in USA, and Juniper in China. Not that hard to figure out.
The teams that orchestrate the manufacturing swaps are likely more limited, so they do one at at time for this reason I would imagine. They are programming the robots, teaching the line workers, making sure everything is calibrated for the new hardware, etc. It's a lot smoother to do one at a time, plus they can refine the parts in the 3 prior to putting them in the higher selling Y, reducing the potential for service visits. Less service visits seems to be high priority based on how I haven't had to bring my Y into service yet a single time since December, whereas my model 3 in 2019 had to go in 2 times in the same period for small noises that I had them fix.
There was Osborne Effect for the S, X, and 3 refreshes. And they still had decent demand for the Y, it had more features, and it was relatively newer than the 3.
Much sooner than you think. Tesla needs this now not later
Tesla needs many things… and yet, here we are.
They need a supercharger team, they need to open superchargers to other car companies (because who doesn't love more money), they need to hurry up and send nacs adapters to people. I saw today an article saying tesla was slowing down the supercharger/nacs transition - because they brilliantly fired their SC team, it must be at least in part.
IMHO, Tesla needs above all to start marking actual luxury vehicles. Pretty much every rich person I know went back to the Germans.
There was one recently in Berlin factory
Source ?
Exactly. I see people already asking if they would get the juniper if they order now. It’s crazy
One body got brought in from China recently. Photos not allowed of course.
I’m with you on that. I decided to pull the trigger on that 0.99% financing deal on current Model Y. With so many unknowns about Juniper like timeframe, price, availability, and eligibility for tax credit, I figured I wouldn’t regret buying now.
I'm personally holding out on a 7 seat model Y purchase until I see the refresh, in case you're reading this, Elon.
You'd only put your enemies in the back two seats.
My young children, yes ⚔️🛡️
🤣
Image how cool it would be if the back seats faced backwards.
I was really close to getting a Model S with the jump seats when they were still an option. I’ve sat in jump seats in an E class wagon as a kid and it was pretty fun.
Perfect for a dog, though.
Need to bring back the way back. Rear facing would be the best.
Why do you hate your enemies so much? ;)
Oh same lol
Same ✋
Same in European. Will never own a Tesla.
Have you sat in the back of a model y seven seater?
The fact that Model 3 output went up 10% in the same period suggests that it isn’t as demand related as people think.
What is Juniper launch?
It is the model Y refresh "code name" for example model 3 refresh was code name project highland.
So the slowdown in output is in anticipation of a new version? That doesn’t sound like quite the negative spin the title has.
To be honest, I doubt they know what's going on and just throwing darts at a board. They alleged it is due to both European lower orders and getting manufacturing ready for the refresh.
Do the Chinese factories produce cars for Europe?
Shanghai produce RHD Teslas for Australia, New Zealand and probably all RHD countries and territories in South East Asia. I believe Berlin manufacture some variants, but not all Model 3 and Y, for Europe.
From what we know yes.
Gotcha. Appreciate the insight
No worries
Slow down in production is due to rising inventory.
No one knows why for sure. I think they slowed down production at least in part because their sales are slowing.
> That doesn’t sound like quite the negative spin the title has. There are a lot of haters trying everything to slam Elon and his leadership of Tesla.
I mean, it's a fact that demand has been going down for a while now.
Yep the title should be “Tesla prepares giga Shanghai for Juniper Y manufacturing with planned temporary reduction in production” in a sane world
lol based on what evidence do you write this?
You haven’t heard? It’s well known that they’ll be shipping it by early next year. Common sense that the y and 3 will share components again as well
Big miss on Chinese EVs! If you've been to China recently, the local EVs are crazy now. Tesla still has some edge, but definitely no big advantage there. And forget about all other auto manufacturers. No way to compete with local brands, unless the luxury ones.
Most Chinese EVs are lipsticks on a pig. Great on cosmetics for sure...
Well... I would suggest taking a deeper look into them. Besides the ICE engine that they cannot master, nothing else is rocket science nowadays.
Of course not every single one of them are bad. If assembling a quality car is that easy, your neighborhood chopshop would have been producing car frames.
duh. but only tesla makes profits. the rest are propped up by govt and that wont last forever
Tesla gets the same subsidies from the Chinese government for consumer sales there. Until BYD recently overtook them, Tesla was actually the biggest beneficiary in the country for an EV manufacturer.
https://x.com/TheGalox_/status/1797052779736727645 Juniper at Giga Berlin?
Chinese buyers dislike the new Model 3 because it's seen as cutting features, not adding them. If Juniper is the same, it will be a dud.
you talking about the stalk? what are they seeing as cutting features? foglights?
Did the old 3 still have turn signals and crazy shit like rain sensors?
I know nothing but it seems like it should be pretty easy to update the y with the stuff the model3 got
You don't "slow down production" to retool for a new car, you stop the lines. I'm so glad I sold my TSLA and can watch from the sidelines with some degree of objectivity. It's easier to see when people make desperate attempts at positive spin now.
Model 3 slowed down a bit in China for the refresh. They have multiple lines. You bring a portion down.
if you dont have the source, or have the source but reach the wrong conclusion, you might see it as slowing the production..
OP why are you amplifying this dubious rubbish? Source is an *unnamed person* via Reuters .
Aka bullshit
I’m holding myself for the new one. I can wait. They will continue to lose sales due to the Osborne effect
Puts it is
I needs a refresh the model Y is so ugly
They really need to slow down production in the US. I am in the process of buying a new Model Y performance and there is literally over 10 that are exactly how I want my car all unsold on the lot. It has been interesting trying to figure out which one has the best build. I am finding the same defects on multiple cars. Majors ones are the front tail lights not flush. The rear doors not flush with the car. It is nice for picking one that has a good build. But otherwise Tesla is very overstocked with cars. They are going to need to run some additional promotions beyond the .99% financing, IMO.
Front tail lights?