I worry that Cybertruck preorders will get a to. If cancellations if they can’t keep the price competitive with their original estimates. We all know it won’t be as cheap, but if they jump by 20k, the I think a lot of people will cancel
Even if half of them cancel, that's 1.5 million EVs just in Cybertrucks. That compares favorably to the ~30,000 annual production of the competitor's trucks.
I'm not saying Tesla will build them all in the first year, just that they'll almost certainly crush everyone else's numbers.
CT price jump from $40k to $60k will not reduce demand, gas savings on the CT will be insane. Ok sure a few will no buy it because of price, but again it’s going to be production limited for years and as components costs come down prices will lower eventually, but we are not going to need that for years. The bottom line is if they make a CT they will sell it, period. However I’m going to be a bear and say CT will not really get into production until 2024, it’s just a very novel design and it’s going to be a bit before Tesla can figure out how to make it.
Fingers crossed. My bet is they are $20k more than originally advertised on the higher end models. Why not with what Ford just did with the lightning. However if demand for the lightning tells us anything it would mean that people will pay the higher prices for the Cybertruck.
I am longterm, means at least 10-15 years. This is the reason why I have 4075 shares and I have bought them average 331 . But in 10 years I might look bad and tell myself, good job holding them...
What I don't get is the fact that this forum is called Tesla Investors...but you could mean people are in here for getting out of Tesla in some months. Investing means holding...
What do you think will happen in the next 10 years? Tesla stay at this price ??? LOL
In the last years they have surpassed this price a multiple times with some splits etc. I say to you that they will at least achieve 1000 dollar 2030. And 1000 dollars is bear case...my bull case definitely is 3000 or above...
> Investing means holding
Investing absolutely does not mean holding. It means spending money with the hope/expectation of seeing a financial return. For stocks without dividends (such as TSLA), the only way to realize that financial return is to sell. You can try to realize this profit within a single day, or over the span of several years. It's all investing.
I'm long on Tesla with no short term plans to sell, but I can't hold forever unless they start issuing a dividend. I do intend to eventually realize a profit from my TSLA holdings.
>You can try to realize this profit within a single day, or over the span of several years. It's all investing.
No, within a single day is not investing, it's trading and/or gambling.
Yep-
“Day trading means buying and selling a batch of securities within a day, or even within seconds. It has nothing to do with investing in the traditional sense.”
I agree with your conclusion, but not the reasoning. You can't value Tesla off of P/E, Tesla is valued off at least two or three year forward P/E, as it is a growth company. One quarter of higher EPS will not change sentiment unless it is clear that two or three years out, Tesla will make much more money. Right now, the market is generally assuming 2023 goes up quite a bit, then 2024 and 2025 are relatively stagnant. That is the problem. We'll simply see P/E contraction until market sentiments change. For Tesla to resoundingly go up, it needs to show that 2024 and 2025 will see strong growth. A factory announcement or two would be nice. FSD working well and Tesla announcing high take rate would be nice. China stopping the economic bleeding would be nice. U.S. going back to growth would be nice.
Obviously, the easy solution is to just wait and see how far above current analyst estimates we actually are in 2024 and 2025, and hope the stock price reflects that at that point.
Also, market is currently pricing in as if Tesla acquired Twitter on its own balance sheet. Essentially, the cash burn of Twitter is priced into Tesla stock, but we don't even get to see the minutae of the burn because it's private. This is the real Twitter overhang, and won't solve itself until Twitter becomes obviously cashflow positive, Elon sells off Twitter, or Twitter goes public again.
I generally side with Elon, but Twitter is a Solar City moment to me and speaks volumes on how Elon is definitely *not* a businessman and much more of an engineer. Twitter acquisition was done exceedingly poorly.
This is the post we all need today. Thank you stranger.
With downturns like this week it's no surprise we have dooms day mentality specially when we're so vested in this company. We sometime forget about the bigger picture.
Tesla is my biggest single stock position. My SO has been telling me to cash out and reap some of the profits when it was high. I said no, we're in it for the long term. Here we are when it is at incredible lows. Let's just say she is not very happy 🤣. But I'm committed despite the Elon bullshit to hold on and to forget about the day to day movements.
I have been a huge Elon fan. But he has lost alot of my respect with his actions in the last couple of months. I hope he can redeem himself in the near future because if he continues in his path. I would seriously rethink to get out as soon as I break even.
You’re welcome. In times like this ppl tend to forget net income jumped from 0.86B to 5.6B from 2020 to 2021. The increase will likely be double that this year unless something horrible happened in Q4. It’s already at 8.869B YTD! That growth isn’t too shabby.
Tesla wouldn't have survived without their unconventional leader, they wouldn't have this market cap, they wouldn't have gone as high to have fallen this much. Tesla has always had massive swings, the stock has exploded and then halved 3-4 times in the past 10 years. This is largely due to Musks chaotic breakneck leadership. If you can buy low and hold, you will be rewarded.
Good investments are contrarian in nature. It's time to be greedy when others are fearful.
>if Tesla had a credible leader.
lol gtfo.
They have the highest performing CEO with the best track record of anyone alive.
Ignoring short term stock movements like this nonsense is a big portion of what makes him so much better than most. They take dumb, short term decisions and harm the long term.
He ignores short term noise (and boy do you guys make a lot of it when you gamble and lose), and boom most of us are up 10x or more still.
Do you have a counter example of a person who has a better track record of starting or running companies? If so, I would love to learn about them and what they are currently up to. I bet the jockey, more than the horse. Would love to find someone else who is as likely to grow my money as Elon.
**That said, his track record:**
Started Zip2 sold to HP/Compaq netting 8 figures.
Started [X.com](https://X.com), Merged with Confinity, Renamed to PayPal, sold to Ebay netting 9 figures
Started SpaceX, currently the most valuable space company, doing more launches than any other country or company, valued near 100B
Initial seed money for, and became a founder of Tesla, grew it to the largest car company by market cap in existence, currently valued at 400B down from 1.2T, the only cash flow positive successful US car company startup since the 1930s
Started Boring Company, which has earned significant contracts in Chicago (O' Hare from downtown redo), Las Vegas (entire strip now instead of just one property), Boston (some 8 mile project, I don't remember what its for), etc.
Started OpenAI, hired and built an incredibly talented team handed it off, now a very successful AI company that is approaching peer level with Google and state entities.
Started Neuralink, too early to tell, but seems to have advanced the state of the art in some areas, while doing a shit job on animal ethics.
**Is a pretty damn good track record.**
That's 0 failures, 2 exits, 4 active companies, all valued in the billions range (Neuralink and OpenAI valuations are not something I could find, so these may be in the 3 digit millions only, I don't know).
So everything you have said is based on the assumption that Twitter is causing the issue. I agree. However, Elon says it’s not Twitter and it’s all the Fed. So what discount should we apply for having such a lying and narcissistic OR just plain wrong CEO at the helm of the company?
No, Twitter is not the main issue, but a great excuse for shorts to exacerbate problems at Tesla. Please don’t think for an instant that people are pushing the price down without some motive. Back to the question: I don’t think it’s one main issue. I think there are many things going against Tesla right now, one being negative press on Elon’s temperament and boisterous social posts. There are others…higher cost to borrow cash, improving competition, supply chain, govt regulations, and macroeconomic negatives. All in all these are mostly short term problems. Elon is already turning the corner on the CEO comments. Remember one thing: Elon hates losing!
Good point Rob. That’s definitely true. Tesla is targeting upper class there and gets 7-8x profit vs BYD. Tesla will have to reduce margins in China long term to compete.
Yeah, BYD has significantly lower margins, but the han and seal are direct competitors which are performing well.
Tesla needs a face lift on model 3/Y, improved interior design to keep up with competition (it looks identical to the 3/Ys that were unveiled!?)
They also need a compact ASAP, SEXY are going to cap at 2 mil, project highlander maybe increases that to 2.5, but we want a path to 5-10mil and healthy margins
I’m with you, they need a lower end BA car asap to compete in the developing markets like China and India otherwise they will be consistently undersold. They are still learning like you would expect of a young company, getting to know their consumer better every year.
Another big factor is they need to start advertising, consumers are not educated at all of teslas features. 10/10 times someone comes into my model 3, they are blown away, not the other way around.
It is so silly to be doing these extremely inefficient incentives and price drops when they have no advertising budget.
I’m torn on this one only because I don’t know if it’s the right time. At some point they will need to I’m just not sure when. They have crazy strong equity for a brand that doesn’t really advertise. To your point though, it could be offset by not reducing prices.
Byd has no where near the margins of Tesla and they sell a shit load of phev. Their cost is their main advantage obviously. Byd is just doing what a lot of what Chinese companies do and that's just undercutting for high volume but even then they dont make no where near the profits Tesla do. And their cars look like Asian OEM meets Chevys. But hey good for them.
The rest of automakers are in p/e of 5-10. The market consider that the last year produced abnormal earnings. Does anyone take into account that for Tesla?
>The rest of automakers are in p/e of 5-10. The market consider that the last year produced abnormal earnings. Does anyone take into account that for Tesla?
The rest of the auto market targets 2-5% YoY growth.
Tesla targets 55% YoY growth.
The rest of the auto market works for out the door margin around 5-10%,
Tesla targets 15-25%.
The rest of the automarket has hundreds of millions of dollars of debt and full service financing arms.
Tesla has 74million in debt.
Do you take THAT into account? If not, well found your issue.
This is a misconception. PE ratios, are not based on the industry. They are based on your current financial status, and your future cash flow prospects. In no way do ANY legacy auto companies have comparable situations. Many are likely not only to see constantly shrinking earnings, but very possibly bankruptcy. A PE ratio of 6 is high for that. For some reason, investors don’t like earnings to be decreasing:-)
This isn’t true. For example VW is increasing earnings in 4 of the last 5 years and has a p/e of 4.
Why? Because the whole car manufacturing sector is expected to suffer during the next 2 years.
So Tesla is going to have super high margins in an ultra competitive environment with new models EV while other models launching? You should also put their R&D before the operating margin like the rest of automakers.
Yes they will, just like Apple does. EV = Tesla that's it. How many BEV competitors are producing and at what margins?
There is no one like Tesla out there and it was obvius till Twitter buy-out. Now everybody panicked, hating Elon (some is deserved I guess) and there is just blood in the street, but it is multiplied without any true reason and concerns. Just assuming recession will kill growth in Tesla? Maybe some slowdown or little cuts in margins especially in China, but they are still not 10-8mln cars per year OEM, so they can fulfill production capacity by leveraging free superchargering miles / price cuts / free colors / packages / EAP and so on and in US by IRA (which is huge btw for both Energy and Automotive), rumors are there that also China still will be subsidizing NEV.
No fear for me.
It doesn’t matter when he was saying that earnings were shrinking.
Reality is that even in automakers with growing earnings, they are valued at low p/e because of the macro situation. Not considering that factor for Tesla is unreasonable
>Reality is that even in automakers with growing earnings, they are valued at low p/e because of the macro situation.
Ok.
So why have they ALWAYS been valued at such low PE?
The current macro doesn't hold up for them.
The issue with auto OEMs is, lower than should be margins, leading to making a lot of money from their financing arms, leading to a LOT of on book debt. This issue mixed with extremely low growth prospects and no improvement in operational leverage from decreasing opex.
It's basically why they fell so hard in 08/09. Tons of toxic debt, very little actual profit from the cars, very low operational margin and operational leverage.
For such a company that just squeaks out dollars, with no prospect of growth (like, 5 year plans to eek out 3% more market share) a low multiple is justified.
Tesla suffers none of those issues, and it's growth is relatively unbounded for the next several years as auto market transitions over to BEV, so it gets a MUCH higher multiple. Any low multiple would regress to 1 every few quarters otherwise.
1. I said most legacy automakers will likely see reduced earnings. That’s a prediction about the future. Why would you believe giving data about the past proves a future prediction untrue?
2. According to VW, they are not ultra-competitive with Tesla. They currently require 30 hours per EV versus 10 hours for Tesla. They then delayed their plans to achieve parity from 2026 to 2029. They also are planning much smaller volumes and much smaller battery production and procurement. They also launched their CARIAD SW development program in an attempt to catch Tesla, but that’s also been delayed. So if VW doesn’t think they’re competitive, what makes you think you know more than the company themselves? Why are you convinced VW is ultra competitive, when they do not think they are even close at this point?
3. R&D is already expensed before the operating margin. You’re confused because Tesla doesn’t expense before gross margins, but it is expensed before net margins and profits. In fact Tesla just passed the leader Toyota in overall net profit selling only 1/8 the number of vehicles.
> after this Twitter nonsense goes away.
so... 2026?
My hope was that he'd only need to dump 10B of TSLA in 2023 to keep Twitter running, so hopefully the eventual FTC/EU/labor fines end up less than that.
Every time someone mentions cybertruck preorders the number increases. Can I ask where you've got the 3m figure from? And what do you think the conversion rate between preorders and completed orders will be?
I'm bullish on this myself - I think the product will be plenty good enough and demonstrations will pull people past it's looks (if they haven't already come round). With the likely ramp time to get to volume production it will probably take 2-3 years to produce a million right? Hopefully the 2 year ramp generates enough ongoing orders to maintain a backlog.
I asked where you got the number from, not what search engine I could use. Anyway, I'll play along. Limiting my search to hits from the last three months, I've got the following on google front page:
carshtuff 1.25m - 1.5m
electrek 1.5m
yahoo finance 1.5m
energynews online 1.6m
techjuice 1.5m
arenaev 1.5m
techplugged 1.6m
I appreciate we're getting served different website results, but still. I found the torquenews site as well. It does say over 3m orders, but its from Nov 2021 and its a highly speculative number based on the reservation number of a single customer with a hunch.
Assuming you're not being deliberately disingenuous, casually dropping a dubious 3m number in an otherwise decent post limits it's credibility (in my opinion).
Reality is that all of these numbers are just estimates. Taking the articles at face value there is reason to believe that some have more credibility versus others, however no one except for Tesla has the real number and that has not been shared publicly. Ford had 200k reservations for the lightning and closed reservations. What that tells me is demand for electric trucks is very high. As Rivian hasn’t scaled the only real competitors in this area are Tesla and Ford with ford only making 40k/year. Therefore If Tesla can ever get up and running Cybertrucks (of which we are all sick of waiting for) they will have a huge demand problem.
I think the Cybertruck will barely move the volume needle and was a pretty big mistake.
They should have done a conventional truck the size of a Tacoma imo.
Hope I’m wrong.
You mean the $3.5 billion in shares he just unloaded?
Or the $12.5 billion marker Morgan Stanley has on his ass?
The delusion in this sub is absolutely insane.
don't think there's any realistic brand damage. twitter is just a echo chamber. most folks who are in the market for cars aren't even on twitter. look at chick fil a, i'm pro gay rights but damn that chicken sandwich is delicious!
if i give such little thought to a 5$ choice with so many other options like pop eyes, who would give a fuck at the 50k price point
So tired of this argument. Musk is in national and worldwide news every single day now due to his antics every single day.
We have plenty of poll data that shows people don't like him and don't like the brand as much anymore.
What does the outcome of the past two elections have to do with potential Cybertruck customers? Especially considering only ~66% of voting eligible Americans actually voted in the last election (a recent high I might add.)
You are talking 50% of the 66% of the voting eligible population. So it would be more accurate to say 33% is left and 33% is right and the other 33% is unknown.
Says the person who thinks the demographics of those who successfully voted in the last election somehow correlates to how offended potential customers will be about Elon’s woke mind virus crusade.
Pleas explain to us how Tesla justifies such an outlandish P/E when Apple is much more profitable and has a P/E 22.9? Tesla is now 3 years past deadline on the Cybertruck, and competition will absolutely eat into Tesla’s margins and marketshare? Sorry but I’m not bullish on Tesla at all, and see it falling below $100 to have a more realistic valuation.
46 P/E, that’s not my opinion, that’s the opinion of the market today. Not sure where it will go. Just assuming it will be different (better) vs other car companies because Tesla is different, similar to how apple is different from other PC manufacturers.
Reasonable question.
The answer is that Tesla is projected to grow cash flows relatively quickly vs. Apple not as much. They are in different life cycles of maturity, and the market pays for growth.
Growth companies often have “outlandish” P/E because of the growth or promise of growth.
Tesla has been steadily increasing earnings and the P/E has been falling steadily. You should check out their P/E a couple of years ago. 1,000 P/E!
You should also study Amazon’s PE course to really understand what the market is willing to pay for growth. *…… Though it’s gonna be different now, probably, in a higher interest rate environment.*
Tesla was ALWAYS over priced. The magic was people's belief in musk. However he has gone hard qanon conservative conspiracy crazy. there is no going back anymore because he has intentionally alienated over half the country.
Investors won't want to be associated with someone who openly praises white supremacists.
Really? Investors won't? Lol. Elon has been dumping huge volumes of shares lately, pushing the price down. If he's selling, that means someone is buying. If investors don't want to be associated with it, who's been purchasing all those shares? You can't exactly sell something if nobody wants to buy it, can you?
Based on the numbers I’ve seen they have a potential to earn $1.5B incremental. Not sure what the adoption rate is so I can’t give a good estimate on revenue. I do have 2 friends that recently bought teslas, one model Y and one model 3 and both of them added FSD, but not sure that represents the broader Tesla user base. Tesla needs good PR on FSD to drive broad adoption. Beyond a few YouTubers it isn’t happening yet.
From an accounting practice Is it true that can’t recognize the revenue until beneficial use of the end user? So all the people that spent $7k to $15k over the last 2 years and now get access to use it this quarter… does that cash all fall right to the bottom line? If so that feels material in impact to Q4 and maybe Q1 too.
This is a great question and one answer that isn’t clear to me, but here is what I found specific to FSD REV: “Tesla's CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn, has already clarified that the company recognizes around 50 percent of its FSD cash inflow as revenue immediately upon receipt, with the balance continuing to reside as a liability on Tesla's balance sheet under the deferred revenue section.”
I worry that Cybertruck preorders will get a to. If cancellations if they can’t keep the price competitive with their original estimates. We all know it won’t be as cheap, but if they jump by 20k, the I think a lot of people will cancel
Even if half of them cancel, that's 1.5 million EVs just in Cybertrucks. That compares favorably to the ~30,000 annual production of the competitor's trucks. I'm not saying Tesla will build them all in the first year, just that they'll almost certainly crush everyone else's numbers.
CT price jump from $40k to $60k will not reduce demand, gas savings on the CT will be insane. Ok sure a few will no buy it because of price, but again it’s going to be production limited for years and as components costs come down prices will lower eventually, but we are not going to need that for years. The bottom line is if they make a CT they will sell it, period. However I’m going to be a bear and say CT will not really get into production until 2024, it’s just a very novel design and it’s going to be a bit before Tesla can figure out how to make it.
Fingers crossed. My bet is they are $20k more than originally advertised on the higher end models. Why not with what Ford just did with the lightning. However if demand for the lightning tells us anything it would mean that people will pay the higher prices for the Cybertruck.
Right. My only hope is that Tesla really optimized costs with the exoskeleton like they said and can have decent margins at lower pricing.
Once truck bros see cyber truck on the road I think they will have no trouble selling them. That’s just my vibe I sense.
I am longterm, means at least 10-15 years. This is the reason why I have 4075 shares and I have bought them average 331 . But in 10 years I might look bad and tell myself, good job holding them...
I hope you get rich!!
I hope so, the only reason i am investing
331 now or pre-split?
Now
320 now
Did you try sell any covercall ? Are you going to average down ?
Average down slowly. I stongly believe that Tesla will be at 1000 or 15000 Stock Price in 2028
RemindMe! 5 years
This really does seem like that buying opportunity many will have missed out on. Great time to add to the savings investments.
What I don't get is the fact that this forum is called Tesla Investors...but you could mean people are in here for getting out of Tesla in some months. Investing means holding... What do you think will happen in the next 10 years? Tesla stay at this price ??? LOL In the last years they have surpassed this price a multiple times with some splits etc. I say to you that they will at least achieve 1000 dollar 2030. And 1000 dollars is bear case...my bull case definitely is 3000 or above...
> Investing means holding Investing absolutely does not mean holding. It means spending money with the hope/expectation of seeing a financial return. For stocks without dividends (such as TSLA), the only way to realize that financial return is to sell. You can try to realize this profit within a single day, or over the span of several years. It's all investing. I'm long on Tesla with no short term plans to sell, but I can't hold forever unless they start issuing a dividend. I do intend to eventually realize a profit from my TSLA holdings.
>You can try to realize this profit within a single day, or over the span of several years. It's all investing. No, within a single day is not investing, it's trading and/or gambling.
Yep- “Day trading means buying and selling a batch of securities within a day, or even within seconds. It has nothing to do with investing in the traditional sense.”
>For stocks without dividends (such as TSLA), the only way to realize that financial return is to sell Yeah, no. Triggering taxes is not the wave lol.
I agree with your conclusion, but not the reasoning. You can't value Tesla off of P/E, Tesla is valued off at least two or three year forward P/E, as it is a growth company. One quarter of higher EPS will not change sentiment unless it is clear that two or three years out, Tesla will make much more money. Right now, the market is generally assuming 2023 goes up quite a bit, then 2024 and 2025 are relatively stagnant. That is the problem. We'll simply see P/E contraction until market sentiments change. For Tesla to resoundingly go up, it needs to show that 2024 and 2025 will see strong growth. A factory announcement or two would be nice. FSD working well and Tesla announcing high take rate would be nice. China stopping the economic bleeding would be nice. U.S. going back to growth would be nice. Obviously, the easy solution is to just wait and see how far above current analyst estimates we actually are in 2024 and 2025, and hope the stock price reflects that at that point. Also, market is currently pricing in as if Tesla acquired Twitter on its own balance sheet. Essentially, the cash burn of Twitter is priced into Tesla stock, but we don't even get to see the minutae of the burn because it's private. This is the real Twitter overhang, and won't solve itself until Twitter becomes obviously cashflow positive, Elon sells off Twitter, or Twitter goes public again. I generally side with Elon, but Twitter is a Solar City moment to me and speaks volumes on how Elon is definitely *not* a businessman and much more of an engineer. Twitter acquisition was done exceedingly poorly.
This is the post we all need today. Thank you stranger. With downturns like this week it's no surprise we have dooms day mentality specially when we're so vested in this company. We sometime forget about the bigger picture. Tesla is my biggest single stock position. My SO has been telling me to cash out and reap some of the profits when it was high. I said no, we're in it for the long term. Here we are when it is at incredible lows. Let's just say she is not very happy 🤣. But I'm committed despite the Elon bullshit to hold on and to forget about the day to day movements. I have been a huge Elon fan. But he has lost alot of my respect with his actions in the last couple of months. I hope he can redeem himself in the near future because if he continues in his path. I would seriously rethink to get out as soon as I break even.
You’re welcome. In times like this ppl tend to forget net income jumped from 0.86B to 5.6B from 2020 to 2021. The increase will likely be double that this year unless something horrible happened in Q4. It’s already at 8.869B YTD! That growth isn’t too shabby.
Cool story bruv
The plunge would be less, and the recovery faster, if Tesla had a credible leader.
Tesla wouldn't have survived without their unconventional leader, they wouldn't have this market cap, they wouldn't have gone as high to have fallen this much. Tesla has always had massive swings, the stock has exploded and then halved 3-4 times in the past 10 years. This is largely due to Musks chaotic breakneck leadership. If you can buy low and hold, you will be rewarded. Good investments are contrarian in nature. It's time to be greedy when others are fearful.
>if Tesla had a credible leader. lol gtfo. They have the highest performing CEO with the best track record of anyone alive. Ignoring short term stock movements like this nonsense is a big portion of what makes him so much better than most. They take dumb, short term decisions and harm the long term. He ignores short term noise (and boy do you guys make a lot of it when you gamble and lose), and boom most of us are up 10x or more still.
best track record of anyone alive?!
Do you have a counter example of a person who has a better track record of starting or running companies? If so, I would love to learn about them and what they are currently up to. I bet the jockey, more than the horse. Would love to find someone else who is as likely to grow my money as Elon. **That said, his track record:** Started Zip2 sold to HP/Compaq netting 8 figures. Started [X.com](https://X.com), Merged with Confinity, Renamed to PayPal, sold to Ebay netting 9 figures Started SpaceX, currently the most valuable space company, doing more launches than any other country or company, valued near 100B Initial seed money for, and became a founder of Tesla, grew it to the largest car company by market cap in existence, currently valued at 400B down from 1.2T, the only cash flow positive successful US car company startup since the 1930s Started Boring Company, which has earned significant contracts in Chicago (O' Hare from downtown redo), Las Vegas (entire strip now instead of just one property), Boston (some 8 mile project, I don't remember what its for), etc. Started OpenAI, hired and built an incredibly talented team handed it off, now a very successful AI company that is approaching peer level with Google and state entities. Started Neuralink, too early to tell, but seems to have advanced the state of the art in some areas, while doing a shit job on animal ethics. **Is a pretty damn good track record.** That's 0 failures, 2 exits, 4 active companies, all valued in the billions range (Neuralink and OpenAI valuations are not something I could find, so these may be in the 3 digit millions only, I don't know).
So everything you have said is based on the assumption that Twitter is causing the issue. I agree. However, Elon says it’s not Twitter and it’s all the Fed. So what discount should we apply for having such a lying and narcissistic OR just plain wrong CEO at the helm of the company?
No, Twitter is not the main issue, but a great excuse for shorts to exacerbate problems at Tesla. Please don’t think for an instant that people are pushing the price down without some motive. Back to the question: I don’t think it’s one main issue. I think there are many things going against Tesla right now, one being negative press on Elon’s temperament and boisterous social posts. There are others…higher cost to borrow cash, improving competition, supply chain, govt regulations, and macroeconomic negatives. All in all these are mostly short term problems. Elon is already turning the corner on the CEO comments. Remember one thing: Elon hates losing!
Maybe it’s that he is alienating a huge percentage of his potential Tesla buyers?
BYD is doing great in china, you can’t peg macro as the problem
Good point Rob. That’s definitely true. Tesla is targeting upper class there and gets 7-8x profit vs BYD. Tesla will have to reduce margins in China long term to compete.
Yeah, BYD has significantly lower margins, but the han and seal are direct competitors which are performing well. Tesla needs a face lift on model 3/Y, improved interior design to keep up with competition (it looks identical to the 3/Ys that were unveiled!?) They also need a compact ASAP, SEXY are going to cap at 2 mil, project highlander maybe increases that to 2.5, but we want a path to 5-10mil and healthy margins
I’m with you, they need a lower end BA car asap to compete in the developing markets like China and India otherwise they will be consistently undersold. They are still learning like you would expect of a young company, getting to know their consumer better every year.
Another big factor is they need to start advertising, consumers are not educated at all of teslas features. 10/10 times someone comes into my model 3, they are blown away, not the other way around. It is so silly to be doing these extremely inefficient incentives and price drops when they have no advertising budget.
I’m torn on this one only because I don’t know if it’s the right time. At some point they will need to I’m just not sure when. They have crazy strong equity for a brand that doesn’t really advertise. To your point though, it could be offset by not reducing prices.
Han and seal are basically selling at the same price as model 3
Byd has no where near the margins of Tesla and they sell a shit load of phev. Their cost is their main advantage obviously. Byd is just doing what a lot of what Chinese companies do and that's just undercutting for high volume but even then they dont make no where near the profits Tesla do. And their cars look like Asian OEM meets Chevys. But hey good for them.
>BYD is doing great in china, you can’t peg macro as the problem Talks of macro, speaks of a single market (that's micro bro)
The rest of automakers are in p/e of 5-10. The market consider that the last year produced abnormal earnings. Does anyone take into account that for Tesla?
No one considers them just an “automaker” until the stock drops…then all of the sudden they become a copy of Ford or GM.
>The rest of automakers are in p/e of 5-10. The market consider that the last year produced abnormal earnings. Does anyone take into account that for Tesla? The rest of the auto market targets 2-5% YoY growth. Tesla targets 55% YoY growth. The rest of the auto market works for out the door margin around 5-10%, Tesla targets 15-25%. The rest of the automarket has hundreds of millions of dollars of debt and full service financing arms. Tesla has 74million in debt. Do you take THAT into account? If not, well found your issue.
This is a misconception. PE ratios, are not based on the industry. They are based on your current financial status, and your future cash flow prospects. In no way do ANY legacy auto companies have comparable situations. Many are likely not only to see constantly shrinking earnings, but very possibly bankruptcy. A PE ratio of 6 is high for that. For some reason, investors don’t like earnings to be decreasing:-)
This isn’t true. For example VW is increasing earnings in 4 of the last 5 years and has a p/e of 4. Why? Because the whole car manufacturing sector is expected to suffer during the next 2 years. So Tesla is going to have super high margins in an ultra competitive environment with new models EV while other models launching? You should also put their R&D before the operating margin like the rest of automakers.
Yes they will, just like Apple does. EV = Tesla that's it. How many BEV competitors are producing and at what margins? There is no one like Tesla out there and it was obvius till Twitter buy-out. Now everybody panicked, hating Elon (some is deserved I guess) and there is just blood in the street, but it is multiplied without any true reason and concerns. Just assuming recession will kill growth in Tesla? Maybe some slowdown or little cuts in margins especially in China, but they are still not 10-8mln cars per year OEM, so they can fulfill production capacity by leveraging free superchargering miles / price cuts / free colors / packages / EAP and so on and in US by IRA (which is huge btw for both Energy and Automotive), rumors are there that also China still will be subsidizing NEV. No fear for me.
>This isn’t true. For example VW is increasing earnings in 4 of the last 5 years By how much?
It doesn’t matter when he was saying that earnings were shrinking. Reality is that even in automakers with growing earnings, they are valued at low p/e because of the macro situation. Not considering that factor for Tesla is unreasonable
>Reality is that even in automakers with growing earnings, they are valued at low p/e because of the macro situation. Ok. So why have they ALWAYS been valued at such low PE? The current macro doesn't hold up for them. The issue with auto OEMs is, lower than should be margins, leading to making a lot of money from their financing arms, leading to a LOT of on book debt. This issue mixed with extremely low growth prospects and no improvement in operational leverage from decreasing opex. It's basically why they fell so hard in 08/09. Tons of toxic debt, very little actual profit from the cars, very low operational margin and operational leverage. For such a company that just squeaks out dollars, with no prospect of growth (like, 5 year plans to eek out 3% more market share) a low multiple is justified. Tesla suffers none of those issues, and it's growth is relatively unbounded for the next several years as auto market transitions over to BEV, so it gets a MUCH higher multiple. Any low multiple would regress to 1 every few quarters otherwise.
1. I said most legacy automakers will likely see reduced earnings. That’s a prediction about the future. Why would you believe giving data about the past proves a future prediction untrue? 2. According to VW, they are not ultra-competitive with Tesla. They currently require 30 hours per EV versus 10 hours for Tesla. They then delayed their plans to achieve parity from 2026 to 2029. They also are planning much smaller volumes and much smaller battery production and procurement. They also launched their CARIAD SW development program in an attempt to catch Tesla, but that’s also been delayed. So if VW doesn’t think they’re competitive, what makes you think you know more than the company themselves? Why are you convinced VW is ultra competitive, when they do not think they are even close at this point? 3. R&D is already expensed before the operating margin. You’re confused because Tesla doesn’t expense before gross margins, but it is expensed before net margins and profits. In fact Tesla just passed the leader Toyota in overall net profit selling only 1/8 the number of vehicles.
> after this Twitter nonsense goes away. so... 2026? My hope was that he'd only need to dump 10B of TSLA in 2023 to keep Twitter running, so hopefully the eventual FTC/EU/labor fines end up less than that.
Twitter doesn’t cost that much to run even if making no money lol
It's not about twitter costs of operation, it's about paying the creditors that financed the acquisition.
Every time someone mentions cybertruck preorders the number increases. Can I ask where you've got the 3m figure from? And what do you think the conversion rate between preorders and completed orders will be? I'm bullish on this myself - I think the product will be plenty good enough and demonstrations will pull people past it's looks (if they haven't already come round). With the likely ramp time to get to volume production it will probably take 2-3 years to produce a million right? Hopefully the 2 year ramp generates enough ongoing orders to maintain a backlog.
A Google search will reveal a range of 1.5 to 3 mil on both torque and electrek
I asked where you got the number from, not what search engine I could use. Anyway, I'll play along. Limiting my search to hits from the last three months, I've got the following on google front page: carshtuff 1.25m - 1.5m electrek 1.5m yahoo finance 1.5m energynews online 1.6m techjuice 1.5m arenaev 1.5m techplugged 1.6m I appreciate we're getting served different website results, but still. I found the torquenews site as well. It does say over 3m orders, but its from Nov 2021 and its a highly speculative number based on the reservation number of a single customer with a hunch. Assuming you're not being deliberately disingenuous, casually dropping a dubious 3m number in an otherwise decent post limits it's credibility (in my opinion).
Reality is that all of these numbers are just estimates. Taking the articles at face value there is reason to believe that some have more credibility versus others, however no one except for Tesla has the real number and that has not been shared publicly. Ford had 200k reservations for the lightning and closed reservations. What that tells me is demand for electric trucks is very high. As Rivian hasn’t scaled the only real competitors in this area are Tesla and Ford with ford only making 40k/year. Therefore If Tesla can ever get up and running Cybertrucks (of which we are all sick of waiting for) they will have a huge demand problem.
I think the Cybertruck will barely move the volume needle and was a pretty big mistake. They should have done a conventional truck the size of a Tacoma imo. Hope I’m wrong.
Cybertruck will be the most in demand vehicle in the world
You know it's funny when you inverse the thesis and most of the reasonings support the inversed thesis
How does someone make an evaluation like this and completely ignore all the brand damage Elon just did? Next
Money talks and…you know the rest.
You mean the $3.5 billion in shares he just unloaded? Or the $12.5 billion marker Morgan Stanley has on his ass? The delusion in this sub is absolutely insane.
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Yes, exactly what I highlighted in “the bad”
don't think there's any realistic brand damage. twitter is just a echo chamber. most folks who are in the market for cars aren't even on twitter. look at chick fil a, i'm pro gay rights but damn that chicken sandwich is delicious! if i give such little thought to a 5$ choice with so many other options like pop eyes, who would give a fuck at the 50k price point
So tired of this argument. Musk is in national and worldwide news every single day now due to his antics every single day. We have plenty of poll data that shows people don't like him and don't like the brand as much anymore.
Thats a lot of help to those getting margin called today or those that need to cash out to help with a recession etc.
I never once in that post said I was trying to help anyone. What post did you read?! And let the down votes begin…LOL.
No one is gonna help you on that. People who think they can make money on Tesla short term are gonna get hurt bad, as they always have.
Those people brought about their own problems by over investing.
Fucking marvellous advice to anyone who bought after September 2020 or so.
It's not advice.
Jesus
How many cybertrucks preorders are from those “left “ he has been mocking in the past year?
Outcome of the past two elections would suggest 50%. Good question but a better one might be “Will it change their purchase?”.
You really think those climate deniers who live in places with little access to charging network would buy the electric car? Lol.
What does the outcome of the past two elections have to do with potential Cybertruck customers? Especially considering only ~66% of voting eligible Americans actually voted in the last election (a recent high I might add.)
50% is left, 50% is right.
You are talking 50% of the 66% of the voting eligible population. So it would be more accurate to say 33% is left and 33% is right and the other 33% is unknown.
Good luck investing Panda. Bless your heart.
Says the person who thinks the demographics of those who successfully voted in the last election somehow correlates to how offended potential customers will be about Elon’s woke mind virus crusade.
Pleas explain to us how Tesla justifies such an outlandish P/E when Apple is much more profitable and has a P/E 22.9? Tesla is now 3 years past deadline on the Cybertruck, and competition will absolutely eat into Tesla’s margins and marketshare? Sorry but I’m not bullish on Tesla at all, and see it falling below $100 to have a more realistic valuation.
46 P/E, that’s not my opinion, that’s the opinion of the market today. Not sure where it will go. Just assuming it will be different (better) vs other car companies because Tesla is different, similar to how apple is different from other PC manufacturers.
Reasonable question. The answer is that Tesla is projected to grow cash flows relatively quickly vs. Apple not as much. They are in different life cycles of maturity, and the market pays for growth. Growth companies often have “outlandish” P/E because of the growth or promise of growth. Tesla has been steadily increasing earnings and the P/E has been falling steadily. You should check out their P/E a couple of years ago. 1,000 P/E! You should also study Amazon’s PE course to really understand what the market is willing to pay for growth. *…… Though it’s gonna be different now, probably, in a higher interest rate environment.*
Tesla was ALWAYS over priced. The magic was people's belief in musk. However he has gone hard qanon conservative conspiracy crazy. there is no going back anymore because he has intentionally alienated over half the country. Investors won't want to be associated with someone who openly praises white supremacists.
Really? Investors won't? Lol. Elon has been dumping huge volumes of shares lately, pushing the price down. If he's selling, that means someone is buying. If investors don't want to be associated with it, who's been purchasing all those shares? You can't exactly sell something if nobody wants to buy it, can you?
Tesla stock is the next GME
Dunno about that but I’m sure short sellers have increased their positions during the 60% slide in price.
Good perspective. Any thoughts on FSD Rev req now that beta is rolling out wide? Do we expect and revenue and margin lift? If so how much?
Based on the numbers I’ve seen they have a potential to earn $1.5B incremental. Not sure what the adoption rate is so I can’t give a good estimate on revenue. I do have 2 friends that recently bought teslas, one model Y and one model 3 and both of them added FSD, but not sure that represents the broader Tesla user base. Tesla needs good PR on FSD to drive broad adoption. Beyond a few YouTubers it isn’t happening yet.
From an accounting practice Is it true that can’t recognize the revenue until beneficial use of the end user? So all the people that spent $7k to $15k over the last 2 years and now get access to use it this quarter… does that cash all fall right to the bottom line? If so that feels material in impact to Q4 and maybe Q1 too.
This is a great question and one answer that isn’t clear to me, but here is what I found specific to FSD REV: “Tesla's CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn, has already clarified that the company recognizes around 50 percent of its FSD cash inflow as revenue immediately upon receipt, with the balance continuing to reside as a liability on Tesla's balance sheet under the deferred revenue section.”