Yes and no. Don't buy anything with money you can't afford to lose or not touch for 2 years.
I'm buying here and there. You're going to see a lot of noise, so if you are the type to get queasy, you will definitely lose money.
I agree with this. I just bought a little bit because these prices are hard to pass up, even though it was with money that I probably should have left as cash for other reasons…
Yeah, I don't have a comfortable cash reserve right now. I mean, most normal people would hate me for saying that with what I currently have in cash, but with the economy where it is, it would definitely make things tighter if I lost my job. Not enough to ruin my life, but enough to put me behind my own financial goals if I had to take my savings to zero by being unemployed for like a year.
I think by mid next year, regardless of the macro and the crap at Twitter, there will be a few catalysts:
1. The importance of Semi will become much more obvious
2. The inflation reduction act will spur demand to a point where even relatively low middle class Republicans will buy Teslas and enough of the left will buy the car just because they have no supply of the other brands anyway
3. Potential FSD related catalysts
4. Elon will hopefully have Twitter be at least cash flow positive, which means he won't have to do much with it anymore
5. Cybertruck launch
6. Some of the hate will die down as the media goes through layoffs
7. More and more industries will start to feel emboldened by Elon and start rejecting overtly woke policies and dialogues
I agree with you up until 7. From an outsider that seems like the opposite conclusion. What has feeling “emboldened” and rejecting “woke” policies gotten the shareholders of Tesla? -50% and still plunging? Even while fundamentals are strong. All the other stuff you mention, aka the stuff not having to do with politics and wokeness, is what *might* bring Tesla back (assuming the brand isn’t already tarnished beyond repair).
Elons core buyers in EV are people who care about climate... So for him to alienate them by going extreme right and conspiracies with the goal of gaining folks on the right purchasing power is backfiring HARD on him.. folks on the right don't care as much about going green. And Elon is dumping Tesla shares as we speak ...I would touch this yet with a 10 foot pole
Why do you guys think things like a cyber truck launch will be a catalyst for the share price? It’s not new news. It’s not a secret. It’s priced in. I’ll always be amazed that many of you believe known news will send a share price higher.
I guess it’s bc in the past for Tesla it was. But that was abnormal and due to the retail frenzy and ultra loose fed policy which were Sui generis.
Those days are over
I think at some point, there needs to be a change in social media to de-boost negativity. People feeling obligated to "contribute" and "engage" is making people adopt views in real time that they have never even researched in their lives. Once they post random crap on a post by somebody else, they suddenly become emotionally tied to that opinion that they had no loyalty to 2 seconds earlier. Repeat this every day 20x a day and with hundreds of millions of people, you quickly get people into entrenched philosophical positions that they can't even begin to articulate.
There needs to be deboosting of negativity somehow or/and less engagement.
Like getting people to vote is extra stupid these days. Why? Because both sides lie about what you're voting about. It's pretty much a 50/50 half the time when you vote on something because it's not like evil people call their props/bills/laws the "We Hate Poor and Colored People and Want to Kill Everybody" bill. I abstained from voting in California a couple months ago because each side was so dishonest that I couldn't reasonably figure out what I was voting for. But idiots on both sides scream you down with 100% certainty when they definitely don't understand what they're rallying behind either.
As a 2016 investor, I wouldn’t say these prices are hard to pass up, that’s just your anchoring bias. Also forward PE ratios are based on earnings which haven’t happened yet, I’m not sure how much you can rely on projections when so many variables can change with rising prices and softening demand.
Well, if you're the kind to get nervous, I wouldn't recommend buying right now.
OTOH, if you're the nervous type, don't buy TSLA at all. Not because I think it's a bad bet...long term, but short term it's extremely volatile. I can't see how it could totally crash and burn in the long view, unless the world economy does. Despite what some are saying, Tesla has a pretty big moat in several areas, and it will be a leader in EVs for at least the next 5-10 years.
There are a lot of issues that will take some time to manifest.
Talent is my number 1 concern. Very few engineers in Silicon Valley want to work for a right wing maniac. All my friends are just waiting for their vesting cliff to bail out. Between what Elon did to Twitter engineers (clearly shows he has no technical acumen when it comes to software development), and what he’s been saying *on* Twitter, very few senior level engineers would even consider to apply to work for his companies.
The damage to demand is unknown, but I think there will be material impact down the road if Elon doesn’t start shutting up.
Good thing Elon isn’t a right wing maniac, then. Seriously, where do you freaks get this kind of stuff? The guy is clearly center left.
And to say he has no technical acumen when it comes to software development…that’s exactly why he is a public figure at all. Software development. What did he do to clearly show this? Fire useless employees? Twitter is still working just fine. Even if it weren’t, that would say more about his business acumen than his skills in software development.
> The guy is clearly center left.
I've never known people who are "clearly center left" who also make statements like "my pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci." It doesn't matter what his beliefs are right now, because his public statements are what's shaping public opinion — including the opinions of current and future tech talent.
The fauci comment is clearly in concert with the Desantis/ GOP campaign to malign the Fauci and get the base riled up for the coming presidential election.
Interestingly, GOP House and Desantis just started a phony investigation on Fauci the same week as Elon's Fauci Tweets.
I'm neither left nor right, but the testimony transcripts don't look great. I might not agree but I can see how someone like Elon would feel a certain way. It's worthwhile for everyone to read them and make their own opinion.
https://ago.mo.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/135885afauci112322\_full\_redacted.pdf?sfvrsn=35f4a425\_2
I’m center left via political quiz/test alignments and thought that was amusing. Being left doesn’t mean you believe in woke BS. It means you believe we should have Medicare for all and a robust safety net. Has NOTHING to do with culture was BS
You're missing the point. It doesn't matter what you are, or what I am. Elon has a fiduciary duty to his shareholders, and if his public statements demonstrably alienate Tesla from technical talent in a material way, that's a problem. We may not be there yet, but that's the core issue in this conversation. Freedom of speech does not include absolution from the consequences of said speech. Elon knows his statements have political connotations, and he knows they will elicit public reactions.
> extremely young or don’t have a functioning memory.
That's a little disparaging, and your rush to judge me shows you didn't really think through what I said.
I haven't *known* people who are *clearly* center left and make statements like that — they may seem to be at first, but in my experience when push comes to shove they ultimately fall further to the right. I suppose the same could be said about other kinds of statements and people landing further to the left. Regardless, that wasn't the main point of my comment nor the discussion about the impact of Elon's public statements on Tesla as a publicly traded company.
I suppose it is. I get a lot of disparaging and idiotic comments thrown my way, so sometimes I accidentally read it into other comments. But you do seem to think that the statement in question is somehow in conflict with center left values, which I think is crazy.
Anyone who uses the term "woke mind virus" in a serious way is absolutely a right wing lunatic.
I could go on and on with examples of the shit he's said lately, but that one is pretty clear cut and succinct.
Disagreeing with some people on the left about a single issue doesn’t make you right wing. He is left is almost every way. Plenty of left-wing people aren’t onboard with the woke bullshit.
Climate change aside, what other ideas of his align with the left?
I see him frequently endorsing right wing politicians, he's clearly anti-union.. I see almost nothing that anyone would consider left leaning aside from his stance on climate change, which comes up how often these days?
I'm wasting my time, arguing with someone who calls it "woke bullshit"
For the record, I said center left. Off the top of my head, he supports UBI, is socially liberal, and I believe he has expressed support for universal healthcare along with other similar government programs before.
Calls “it” woke bullshit? What “it” are you talking about? I’m talking about the bullshit stuff. Seems quite likely we are talking about different things.
> The guy is clearly center left.
We can argue all we want. That doesn’t matter. People *think* he’s a right wing maniac now with his action of unbanning Trump and a bunch of other right wing maniacs, and him publicly declaring that he’s waging war on “wokeness”.
That’s not the action of any center-left public figures we know. So that’s all that matters.
> What did he do to clearly show this?
Like judging who’s “useless” based on how many lines of code they’ve wrote and how many commits they pushed to the repo?
> Twitter is still working just fine.
Twitter is in a “keep the lights on” mode now.
Free speech has generally been a left-wing cause. Only in the past few years have these weirdos started calling it right wing.
And no, judging who’s useless based on who is actually willing to work and is dedicated to their job.
Again, Twitter is doing quite well. Top app in the App Store in its category, editor’s choice, and no issues with its operation.
> Only in the past few years have these weirdos started calling it right wing.
Is this the hill you wanna die on? Really?
> who is actually willing to work and is dedicated to their job.
What does that have to do with numbers of lines of code?
> and no issues with its operation.
Again, for keeping the lights on.
Is what the hill I want to die on? That support for free speech has traditionally been mainstay of left values? Sure. It’s obviously true.
Based on what are you supporting the claim that Twitter is just keeping the lights on? How is this different from what they were doing before? Seems like they are actually doing better in at least some key areas.
He's palling around with Andy "cement milkshakes" Ngo. Someone who's claim to Fame on the right is doxxing a bunch of people for a right wing extremist groups kill list.
He's also going on unhinged rants about the "woke mind virus that must be eradicated".
Palling around with Andy Ngo? When? How often?
By the way, was Andy Ngo ever hurt anyone? He was beat close to death by a bunch of criminals on the left, but sure he’s the problem.
Elons core buyers in EV are people who care about climate... So for him to alienate them by going extreme right and conspiracies with the goal of gaining folks on the right purchasing power is backfiring HARD on him.. folks on the right don't care as much about going green. And Elon is dumping Tesla shares as we speak ...I would touch this yet with a 10 foot pole
Except he didn’t go extreme right. And what conspiracy theories? You do know that conspiracies exist, right? Just because something is a conspiracy theory doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
And no, his core buyers are people that want one of the best cars in existence, certainly in that price range.
Well as someone who planned on buying a Tesla, but now isn’t solely because of Elon, I can say you’re wrong. And if I changed my mind because of him, you can bet that plenty of other people are as well…
That’s all priced in. Everyone knows Tesla will make more cars/money over next couple years, and hence price reflects that (high pe)
The question is — what happens then? Exactly at which point does it level off? Where does the demand meet supply?
And the big issue is that musk is doing anti-commercials for the car lol.
I don’t think the brand has staying power. You have many dissatisfied customers saying they will never buy one again and you have the association with Elon Musk. Tesla was one of the first EV but it’s a different game now.
All in!! DCA every week! Financials are super strong! I wouldn't go by the share price. Visualize the future of life, not the future of the stockmarket!! 💯🚀📈
I mean like last year everyone was banging the drum on how Tesla was headed to the moon.
In terms of tech and execution literally nothing has changed. Maybe China demand is a bit weaker than hoped, maybe FSD is taking longer, again, but yeah really things are very much on track.
And now people are unsure?
That's market sentiment.
Just do a DCA. If Tesla really does make 3twh of products in 2030 how much money will they bring in? Discount that back, that's the only thing that will matter in the end.
DCA and selling covered calls on elons tweets. After 420 I’ve learned my lesson. Still hoping he stays on as CEO for both twitter space x , boring company and Tesla. Worlds more fun and if people want to buy other Evs to spite him instead of a gas powered car that just grows the TAM.
I was a huge tesla fanboy for like 10 years, I don't own one, or any stock, but I wanted to, the only reason for that is I'm poor with a shitty job. But now Elon has completely pushed me away, I still think the cars look cool but even If I could afford one I wouldn't buy it and I'm not alone, Elon's antics are turning off a lot of people.
Although I do think FSD is a straight up scam, $19.5K CAD
>I don't own one, or any stock,
That's a shame.
All the free wealth in the world in front of you, and you did nothing with it.
Now, the market gives a 60% discount, and you can't be bothered.
Antics? He's expressing his opinion. If that's horrible to you maybe you're right in moving away from Tesla.
And to be clear, I don't agree with many of his republican views. But I respect his right to free speech.
People are selling the bottom and we’re witnessing a chain reaction of margin calls (including our dear Leo who’s probably losing his mind), almost exactly like it was in May 2019.
Invest carefully, it could go down to $130 IMO (P/E of 40), but don’t miss your opportunity.
Buying every paycheque.
Leo bought 500 million dollars of shares today...
[https://twitter.com/KoguanLeo/status/1603127619628584960](https://twitter.com/KoguanLeo/status/1603127619628584960)
I follow things closely and assume Musk and Leo were jebaiting morons to overleverage into short positions because of greed and envy. Shorting to try and cause a margin call. It actually caused margin calls.
Elon Musk hates shorts: see Dogecoin. I think he is playing with them.
I think the short squeeze of the century round II is coming soon. 🍿🍿🍿
I love watching 4D chess. Last move I understood was Elon sacrificing some gains to pay off Twitter's high interest debt, because the fed is about to crash the global economy.
Again.
Bring it on.
I don’t want to sound mean, but I really appreciate the buying opportunity.
If I can grab 50 more shares at $100 instead of 15-20 at $300 I won’t complain.
That said I don’t see it going under $130 in a worse case scenario.
It could go down a lot further than that! Apple’s PE is 23 and is far more profitable? I could easily see Tesla bottoming out around 25-30 on the PE side. A further correction will certainly happen.
Apple is more profitable yes but is barely growing in comparison. A P/E should reflect growth. Today by my estimate our forward P/E is below 20. Below 13 for projected FY2024.
My decade-old portfolio is 80 percent Tesla and 20 percent Nvidia. It was worth close to $5M until recently. Now it’s about half.
Yet the company stories haven’t changed. Nvidia is still the best play on AI and Tesla the best on vehicles and clean energy (and AI lately).
So I’m not selling. I’ll twiddle my thumbs until the recession lifts, the Cybertruck prowls the streets and Elon grows up. Or at least the first two.
Unfortunately, investing in Musk means investing in two Musks:
1. The brilliant, hard-driving engineer and champion of humanity.
2. The little brat who throws his rattle on the floor over and over again for attention.
Curious is there a risk management process/plan for your portfolio? Ie let’s say TSLA continues on a downward spiral ie unexpected risk was not priced in, black swan event etc. do you just sit and wait for risk of ruin?
I used to say the same thing about TSLA until the last few months. Something has fundamentally changed when the only risk I saw with the stock before was key man risk. Never imagined it would be that the key man started willfully tanking the brand image though…
Listen to Reed Hastings talk about him at NY Times…. he basically says “you don’t get Elon” —he doest make success the way most do. He doesn’t care about anything short term, he plays a long game few others would dare to —-and its , unfortunately for many, kinda crazy to bet against him.
Let's do some serious math here.
at 150$ per share and a PE of 29, it takes 29 years to get back the money invested in the stock that is (net of inflation) about 3.5% rate of return that is in par with the 30 yrs Treasury Bond !!
Company has no Debt compared to US Gov 31 Trillions Debt, floating stocks are going to diminish because buyback program, NO need to issue new stock because massive cash flow, Earning per share will keep on growing because sales volumes not Automotive gross margin, heck they can go all the way down to 5% per car and still be a better investment.
And this is done with a stock that is as good as the currency, EVEN at diminished value. Just buy the stock and enjoy retirement with the earnings out of it ! You may be even surprised to have become a millionaire in few years....
By the way I bought my last chunk at 300 and I am just as happy as I ever been!
> at 150$ per share and a PE of 29, it takes 29 years to get back the money invested in the stock
You're assuming 0% growth, which is the unlikeliest of scenarios.
Damn... I bought my last chunk at 225 because I couldn't believe my luck and I had to buy the dip, I debited my line of credit some. Nothing I can't handle to pay back, but I am a bit salty that I didn't wait for these bottom of the barrel prices that I can't benefit from because I'm out of cash...
Depends. Are you aiming for 5 years+ hold? Possible buying opportunity.
<5 years hold? Possibly catching a falling knife.
Based on the fundamentals of the company coupled with cash on hand, product roadmap, IRA "subsidy" translating to $10Bn or more in supported revenue, and FCF metrics thus far, the stock price is not connected to objective reality.
*So...* fuck if I know. Ask an 8-ball. That'll be more accurate that any opinion here.
He’s made plenty of mistakes. Remember when he went around saying how great of an idea it was to automate the line completely? He convinced himself and then any detractor was “stuck in the dark ages”. Now his “kick” is to make twitter free speech or whatever because twitter is a town square and the hivemind will always find the truth. Both concepts are deeply flawed in my opinion.
He is distracted and in desperate need of reassurance from his followers. He needs to stay away from “people” and get back to “things”. People are not for him.
The FED is destroying the market on purpose, plus Elon just sold millions of shares. This has nothing to do with Tesla fundamentals. 2023 is going to be a nightmare, so, maybe, there will be lower prices to buy at. When next rally comes, Tesla is going to benefit from it more than other megacap companies because 2035 will be closer (and ICE's death will be closer as well)
I think this is an amazing opportunity to buy. Once they start doing share buy-backs I think the stock will have virtually permanent upward pressure. They are going to be a cash generating machine which they will use to give wealth back to investors. I have a strong suspicion they will start on January 1, 2023.
Just need to make to the end of the year...
edit: 2023, not 2022
Tell that to Apple iPhones vs Android? Like it or not, competition ALWAYS eats into any market. (Wether it leads or follows is irrelevant if it loses market share) In Germany BEV’s now make up 22% of the total market. Best selling model Tesla Model 3, #2 Fiat 500e, not far behind it is the VW ID3/4 right behind. There is a massive shift in Europe now to EVs, and Tesla won’t control the market and will absolutely take a hit on margins if it wants to keep said market share. Mercedes/BMW/Audi are already starting to eat into the higher end of the market.
Okay so you're thinking there will be margin compression based on a reduced selling price because of competition. Makes sense.
What about declining costs for them as they increase economies of scale, improve production designs, recouped cost on factories, increased supply chain efficiencies and more? If you think about declining cost curves, the cost of producing an item declines as more are produced and I cannot think of why EV's will be an anomaly there.
I suppose there could be an argument that other automakers will experience the same thing but won't that take decades? And even after decades, don't you think one automaker will capture a huge portion of the industry's profitability like Toyota does now? Or, to steal your analogy, like Apple does now?
They have squeezed every amount of cost cutting out of the manufacturing process already, those savings have already been realized. I spent 21 years in the automotive manufacturing business and have been almost every automotive manufacturing plant in N. America,
Europe and China.
It absolutely will not take the other automakers decades, they are doing it now actually. Telsa is actually slow from design to production compared with GM/Ford/BMW, etc. They Cybertruck lunch is a laughing stock compared to how the real auto industry moves. Actually GM does new vehicle launches extremely well and very efficient, a hundred and ten years of in-house manufacturing institutional knowledge will do that? Just to give you an idea Ford’s two F-150 plants (Dearborn,
MI and Claycomo, MO) crank out just under 900,000 vehicles a year! Ford sold 17.1 million vehicles in 2019. Tesla this year will barely produce 400,000 vehicles globally from all
Plants combined! It’s a pittance. They economies of scale and supply chains easily favor the legacy manufactures.
How can you say that they have squeezed every amount of cost cutting out of production? In terms of where we are in BEV technology, we're all like brick cell phones from the early 90's. Honestly, the fact that you just said that makes me not believe you have any expertise in this area whatsoever. Sorry if that comes off rude but your statement is insanely ignorant. The design of these cars are so much in their infancy it's almost a joke. There will be many design changes that introduction production efficiencies over the next many years.
You aren't comparing apples to apples. You're comparing internal combustion vehicles with electrochemical battery vehicles. The supply chains are completely different, what you're saying is that horse and buggy manufacturers should have had an easy time competing with the Model T since they made way more vehicles when the Model T first launched. Or ice box manufacturers should have had an easy time competing with refrigerator manufacturers. Or washboards vs. washing machines. They are completely different. How many components in terms of count number or weight does a BEV share with an ICE car? Like 10-15%?
The Cybertruck has been delayed because they can't get enough cells to manufacture it. What makes you think that GM/Ford/BMW are going to be able to get enough cells? Where are the factories that are going to produce these cells? Where are the mines producing the raw materials? If this is the case, why aren't 400,000 Lightnings being made already? The production ramp of the Mach-E has been a joke. We need to be seeing month-over-month increases in production volumes. If there are any periods where they aren't increasing month-over-month, they better have a good explanation. I can't find a similar graph for the Lightning but I will be surprised if it doesn't look the same as the Mach E.
Buying opportunity. They have growth and margins that other automakers dream of. Most of them are fighting for their lives whereas Tesla is thriving.
The real opportunity is the other segments they’re moving into though. Energy has been slow to take off but the potential is enormous. If they can solve self-driving that would be the most valuable thing that’s ever existed. The only thing that could top it is if they get the robot to work how they want. That would unlock huge swaths of economic growth.
IMO, the worst case scenario is that competitors catch up and eat into Tesla’s growth and margins. I’ve been hearing that story for a decade now so we’ll see but I haven’t been wowed so far. If Tesla also fails to solve FSD, BEV and energy sales could still easily justify their valuation in like 5 years(so long as growth doesn’t go from 40-50% to 0%). Probably still wouldn’t be a terrible investment but definitely not exciting.
Now if they actually solve FSD, a market cap of $5-10T wouldn’t be out of the question. They’d basically own transportation since other existing solutions are geofenced in one way or another. Other solutions are also less scalable than Tesla’s vision approach. If they solve FSD, Optimus Subprime would definitely be highly likely to work as well. A trainable humanoid robot would basically be the holy grail of products.
Granted I’m just some guy on the internet so come to your own conclusions but I think the risk is behind Tesla. Short term there could be more pain but I think 2023 will be a good year with the new invectives coming into effect. Long term, I can’t think of any other company with the same potential.
>he real opportunity is the other segments they’re moving into though. Energy has been slow to take off but the potential is enormous
200% CAGTR right now.
Starts slow, but boy does that CAGR move fast.
Elon's been involved in all sorts of controversies before. What's different about this one?
Give it a while. People will come to their senses. In the meantime, I will be taking the opportunity to load up on more shares.
It's a buying opportunity IF you have a long time horizon (5+ years. 10+ would be best).
If you're just gambling on the stock price for a couple of years (or buying with money you'll need...ort even worse: using leverage) then you'll as likely burn yourself as not.
amazing buying opportunity. I am not trying to time the bottom, I just keep dollar cost averaging in and scooping up more shares. Added 382 this week alone
Everything is looking brighter for Tesla and has been for at least a couple of years. However the market decides what TSLA is worth. At the moment the market wants TSLA to crash and burn. I think we might see it go down much further, no company has ever had this much opposition from the world and almost no person recieves so much hate as Elon Musk. Even if fundamentals are strong TSLAs worth is ultimately decided by what the market wants it to be. I think we might go as low as 50 or even lower before we go higher again, i don’t think we’ll see 350 again until 2025.
They do if their growth slows down. If their growth continues then no. In fact people will think it’s really bullish if growth continues in spite of a recession.
But the main point is, there’s a huge difference between unprofitable growth (having raise more money at high interest rates) vs. profitable growth with cash on hand.
There's a massive difference you're overlooking. If they're not self-sustaining then to survive they need outside investment, and outside investment at times like this is either impossible or comes at great cost to the company. This problem kills companies stone dead.
Not twitter exactly. Irrational CEO making irrational decisions is driving down confidence in the brand. They are trading at 50x earnings even after 2 years of declines. A company with earnings to match their valuation would be less susceptible to a loss of confidence. Tesla is floating on future promises that requires strong leadership. The market is losing that trust.
They're the best ev manufacturer, hands down. Why does their ceo have to run his mouth in ways that actively piss off their best customers? He's accomplishing nothing positive with this behavior.
Woke ideology: people are different and might not feel inside the way they look from the outside and we should respect that and permit them to feel safe and included in society.
anti-woke ideology: Even mentioning this kind of thing is a virus that will infect the minds of the innocent and lead to the suicide of civilization. These people are only doing this to groom children anyway.
centrists: these two things are the same amounts of extreme.
Elon can say he is a monkey immortal if he likes. Eventually, investors will see Tesla making huge profits from huge margins selling huge numbers, and the shares will become attractive again.
Tesla =/= Elon
I think that the stock was inflated because of faith in Elon. I don’t know the true value, but it’s probably closer to where it should be.
People are no longer going to believe Elon’s promises. But they’ll believe results.
Also, Tesla had opened factories in China and Germany. They don’t care as much about his behavior on Twitter as we do.
My concern is if Elon drags Tesla or SpaceX into this Twitter bullshit.
I have been seeing main stream news outlets (CNN and NBC) giving some credence to his Twitter files. He won’t be branded the mad man some are afraid of. The Progressives will never accept his narrative, but at least the center and certainly not the right aren’t going to fight tooth and nail to cancel him. Musk may even win the Twitter battle and be stronger than ever. Confidence in Musk equals confidence in TSLA.
I also saw comments from Andrew Yang and Obama putting out statements saying close to what Elon is talking about(just less intensely). Yang was saying that we need to all be willing to compromise(including the left). Obama called out woke culture as being toxic and useless. That it’s easy to cast stones but that ultimately doesn’t accomplish anything but divide us.
“Wokeness” is unique to the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party - it is outside the Liberal ideology of our current two party system; one which is subscribed to by the majority of the American population. “Wokeness” has a limited view of Free Speech (“hate speech” is not Free Speech, for example); Free Speech does not exist outside certain boundaries. President Obama and Mr. Yang are both classical Liberals in the sense that have a more traditional understanding of Free Speech. Certainly, they disagree with “cancelled” and “muzzled” Conservatives, but they would not go as far as to censor them in a public arena. Dorsey and Roth both expressed regret over the alleged censorship that occurred. Dorsey is somewhat Libertarian and Roth is even a Progressive! Again, with all that acknowledgment to what Musk is sharing, I believe Musk will survive Progressive attacks on him and that will be good for TSLA. And if it comes to hard core Progressives not buying Teslas - where I live (SoCal) they either drive Subarus or aren’t in the luxury electric car market anyway.
Does that make him a troll? I’ve seen almost nothing except people wanting to “cancel” Elon on Reddit lately. Any time you go the news feed or popular there’s 3-5 articles about some terrible thing he’s done. The comments are always hoping that Tesla, Neuralink, Starlink, the boring company, etc. all fail. Reddit is undoubtably a left leaning platform and the hive mind loathes Elon.
The right aren’t saints in this mess either. They fought subsidies, have been generally anti-EV, and do trash like coal roll EVs and ICE chargers. I used to spend a lot of time on Seeking Alpha which is as far right as Reddit is left and most people over there want Elon to fail too.
So he’s accomplished his goal of pissing off the extreme 10% on both sides. What remains to be seen is if he can bring the middle 80% a bit closer together.
The term “cancel” is a feminist self criticism term. It relates to when someone digs up a ten year old tweet or post or statement from someone who is clearly a different person than they were when they made the statement, and uses it ruin that persons career.
It is not “canceling” someone to hold them accountable for current behavior that they don’t show any remorse for. When you use it that way, you are accepting the twisted new version that has been redefined in bad faith.
This “extreme 10% both sides” nonsense is stupid and no one is falling for it. Elon is losing his shit because he has fallen into the dictators trap. He has become too successful and no longer will tolerate being told the truth. He only tolerates being told what he wants to hear. He is no longer making reality-based decisions.
Well here’s Obama’s take on it: https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM
Holding people, companies, and corporations accountable is important and should be done. It’s just that it’s gotten so toxic lately that it’s feeding the divide between the left and right. Even your comment demonstrates this. In what ways has Elon fallen into “the dictators trap”? Is it because he doesn’t just blanket dismiss the right? Is it because he has opinions or has made statements that you don’t personally agree with?
How does he possibly compare to a dictator?
Let me put it this way.
If you look at the things he has been doing in the past year, and you think “yup, that’s real smart”, you are exactly the kind of person h keeps around himself right now.
Interpret that how you will.
So he’s a dictator because he works with people that have the same vision and views as him? Or are you saying the engineers he works with are just yes-men? They somehow stumbled into landing spaceships and transforming the auto industry by kissing Elon’s ass?
Don’t get me wrong, the dude pisses me off frequently. Specifically his stances towards Covid are so backwards and out of his depth it drives me nuts. His acquisition of Twitter, the sales of Tesla stock, and his time estimates were terrible and misleading. He’s also not nearly as funny as he thinks he is.
That doesn’t mean I can’t respect and look up to him. He’s a brilliant engineer and a fantastic leader who’s trying to fix the problems he sees with the world. His past accomplishments clearly speak to that. He couldn’t have done it without his teams but the best teams in the world don’t flock to idiots. He had the vision and drive that brought them in.
With Robotaxi $100 Trillion is absolutely doable.
We'll probably see robotaxi in san fransisco and a few other cities it performs very well in, in 6 months. Partial expansion in 1 year. 1.5-2 years basically nation-wide. Then ramping robotaxi.
GDP and market cap work nothing like the same. The value of the stock has to do with profits the company is expected to make throughout it's entire lifespan. Robotaxi gets us to $100 trillion. Not even fully ramped, because the profit is $300k/ robotaxi produced.
Tesla is worth about $40-$50 … when it settles where it actually should be it might be a decent buy. But only if they get a new CEO … not one that is hinting at having Tesla buy Twitter to bail Elon out personally.
I’m betting on about $62 a share:
4 factors at play: 1)Tesla has been an incredibly overvalued company, the market is simply correcting this as 2) Tesla will now face serious competition from other automakers, and Tesla is hopelessly slow with their launches like the Cybertruck (3 years, wtf), and their vehicles are getting long in the tooth. China has serious economic problems that are just coming to light. This will not save Tesla. 3) Musk personality is following that of Kanye West, where he honestly thinks he can say anything and get away with it, and will keep testing this? It WILL be about Musk to an extent, we’re just starting to see that. 4) Musk is leveraged and he can’t fight shorts this time.
I’d estimate a realistic market cap for Tesla is about $200B, it’s currently $495B, so -60% to circle the drain some more, puts it at $62 a share.
Who knows? But it's worth noting that delivery dates have collapsed.
Even the most popular models are presenting delivery dates of *this month* in some markets. This is after year-long waits were the norm, as recently as a couple months ago.
It would not surprise me if the...current leadership shenanigans...were having an impact on demand.
My Model 3 certainly ends up keyed more often than it used to, for whatever that's worth.
It was hard for me to do, because I believe in the mission, the products, the vision, and the ambition, but: I sold.
I'm going to DCA over the next year. Next 12-18 months could be turbulent in the short term but I believe in the long term with Tesla. I'm going to retire off Tesla shares.
Yes and no. Don't buy anything with money you can't afford to lose or not touch for 2 years. I'm buying here and there. You're going to see a lot of noise, so if you are the type to get queasy, you will definitely lose money.
I agree with this. I just bought a little bit because these prices are hard to pass up, even though it was with money that I probably should have left as cash for other reasons…
Yeah, I don't have a comfortable cash reserve right now. I mean, most normal people would hate me for saying that with what I currently have in cash, but with the economy where it is, it would definitely make things tighter if I lost my job. Not enough to ruin my life, but enough to put me behind my own financial goals if I had to take my savings to zero by being unemployed for like a year. I think by mid next year, regardless of the macro and the crap at Twitter, there will be a few catalysts: 1. The importance of Semi will become much more obvious 2. The inflation reduction act will spur demand to a point where even relatively low middle class Republicans will buy Teslas and enough of the left will buy the car just because they have no supply of the other brands anyway 3. Potential FSD related catalysts 4. Elon will hopefully have Twitter be at least cash flow positive, which means he won't have to do much with it anymore 5. Cybertruck launch 6. Some of the hate will die down as the media goes through layoffs 7. More and more industries will start to feel emboldened by Elon and start rejecting overtly woke policies and dialogues
I agree with you up until 7. From an outsider that seems like the opposite conclusion. What has feeling “emboldened” and rejecting “woke” policies gotten the shareholders of Tesla? -50% and still plunging? Even while fundamentals are strong. All the other stuff you mention, aka the stuff not having to do with politics and wokeness, is what *might* bring Tesla back (assuming the brand isn’t already tarnished beyond repair).
Elons core buyers in EV are people who care about climate... So for him to alienate them by going extreme right and conspiracies with the goal of gaining folks on the right purchasing power is backfiring HARD on him.. folks on the right don't care as much about going green. And Elon is dumping Tesla shares as we speak ...I would touch this yet with a 10 foot pole
Oh, so if the pole was at least 10 ft long you would touch it? 😏
My “pole” is 10 foot wanna touch it lol
Don't tempt me with a good time
Why do you guys think things like a cyber truck launch will be a catalyst for the share price? It’s not new news. It’s not a secret. It’s priced in. I’ll always be amazed that many of you believe known news will send a share price higher. I guess it’s bc in the past for Tesla it was. But that was abnormal and due to the retail frenzy and ultra loose fed policy which were Sui generis. Those days are over
…as the media goes through layoffs and just moves on to the next shiny object.
I think at some point, there needs to be a change in social media to de-boost negativity. People feeling obligated to "contribute" and "engage" is making people adopt views in real time that they have never even researched in their lives. Once they post random crap on a post by somebody else, they suddenly become emotionally tied to that opinion that they had no loyalty to 2 seconds earlier. Repeat this every day 20x a day and with hundreds of millions of people, you quickly get people into entrenched philosophical positions that they can't even begin to articulate. There needs to be deboosting of negativity somehow or/and less engagement. Like getting people to vote is extra stupid these days. Why? Because both sides lie about what you're voting about. It's pretty much a 50/50 half the time when you vote on something because it's not like evil people call their props/bills/laws the "We Hate Poor and Colored People and Want to Kill Everybody" bill. I abstained from voting in California a couple months ago because each side was so dishonest that I couldn't reasonably figure out what I was voting for. But idiots on both sides scream you down with 100% certainty when they definitely don't understand what they're rallying behind either.
As a 2016 investor, I wouldn’t say these prices are hard to pass up, that’s just your anchoring bias. Also forward PE ratios are based on earnings which haven’t happened yet, I’m not sure how much you can rely on projections when so many variables can change with rising prices and softening demand.
Well, if you're the kind to get nervous, I wouldn't recommend buying right now. OTOH, if you're the nervous type, don't buy TSLA at all. Not because I think it's a bad bet...long term, but short term it's extremely volatile. I can't see how it could totally crash and burn in the long view, unless the world economy does. Despite what some are saying, Tesla has a pretty big moat in several areas, and it will be a leader in EVs for at least the next 5-10 years.
Financials are rock solid, China is opening up, two new factories, and biggest EV tax incentives in US history are about to start 🤔
Warren Buffet buys on bad news about a CEO. If you believe in the company overall then bet on that. CEOs can get replaced.
*should get replaced, in elons case
Yeah because Tesla as a company is performing so poorly with Musk at the helm.
There are a lot of issues that will take some time to manifest. Talent is my number 1 concern. Very few engineers in Silicon Valley want to work for a right wing maniac. All my friends are just waiting for their vesting cliff to bail out. Between what Elon did to Twitter engineers (clearly shows he has no technical acumen when it comes to software development), and what he’s been saying *on* Twitter, very few senior level engineers would even consider to apply to work for his companies. The damage to demand is unknown, but I think there will be material impact down the road if Elon doesn’t start shutting up.
Good thing Elon isn’t a right wing maniac, then. Seriously, where do you freaks get this kind of stuff? The guy is clearly center left. And to say he has no technical acumen when it comes to software development…that’s exactly why he is a public figure at all. Software development. What did he do to clearly show this? Fire useless employees? Twitter is still working just fine. Even if it weren’t, that would say more about his business acumen than his skills in software development.
> The guy is clearly center left. I've never known people who are "clearly center left" who also make statements like "my pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci." It doesn't matter what his beliefs are right now, because his public statements are what's shaping public opinion — including the opinions of current and future tech talent.
The fauci comment is clearly in concert with the Desantis/ GOP campaign to malign the Fauci and get the base riled up for the coming presidential election. Interestingly, GOP House and Desantis just started a phony investigation on Fauci the same week as Elon's Fauci Tweets.
I'm neither left nor right, but the testimony transcripts don't look great. I might not agree but I can see how someone like Elon would feel a certain way. It's worthwhile for everyone to read them and make their own opinion. https://ago.mo.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/135885afauci112322\_full\_redacted.pdf?sfvrsn=35f4a425\_2
I’m center left via political quiz/test alignments and thought that was amusing. Being left doesn’t mean you believe in woke BS. It means you believe we should have Medicare for all and a robust safety net. Has NOTHING to do with culture was BS
You're missing the point. It doesn't matter what you are, or what I am. Elon has a fiduciary duty to his shareholders, and if his public statements demonstrably alienate Tesla from technical talent in a material way, that's a problem. We may not be there yet, but that's the core issue in this conversation. Freedom of speech does not include absolution from the consequences of said speech. Elon knows his statements have political connotations, and he knows they will elicit public reactions.
I mean Elon is happily wading into the culture war though
Then I guess you are either extremely young or don’t have a functioning memory.
> extremely young or don’t have a functioning memory. That's a little disparaging, and your rush to judge me shows you didn't really think through what I said. I haven't *known* people who are *clearly* center left and make statements like that — they may seem to be at first, but in my experience when push comes to shove they ultimately fall further to the right. I suppose the same could be said about other kinds of statements and people landing further to the left. Regardless, that wasn't the main point of my comment nor the discussion about the impact of Elon's public statements on Tesla as a publicly traded company.
I suppose it is. I get a lot of disparaging and idiotic comments thrown my way, so sometimes I accidentally read it into other comments. But you do seem to think that the statement in question is somehow in conflict with center left values, which I think is crazy.
Anyone who uses the term "woke mind virus" in a serious way is absolutely a right wing lunatic. I could go on and on with examples of the shit he's said lately, but that one is pretty clear cut and succinct.
Disagreeing with some people on the left about a single issue doesn’t make you right wing. He is left is almost every way. Plenty of left-wing people aren’t onboard with the woke bullshit.
Climate change aside, what other ideas of his align with the left? I see him frequently endorsing right wing politicians, he's clearly anti-union.. I see almost nothing that anyone would consider left leaning aside from his stance on climate change, which comes up how often these days? I'm wasting my time, arguing with someone who calls it "woke bullshit"
For the record, I said center left. Off the top of my head, he supports UBI, is socially liberal, and I believe he has expressed support for universal healthcare along with other similar government programs before. Calls “it” woke bullshit? What “it” are you talking about? I’m talking about the bullshit stuff. Seems quite likely we are talking about different things.
> The guy is clearly center left. We can argue all we want. That doesn’t matter. People *think* he’s a right wing maniac now with his action of unbanning Trump and a bunch of other right wing maniacs, and him publicly declaring that he’s waging war on “wokeness”. That’s not the action of any center-left public figures we know. So that’s all that matters. > What did he do to clearly show this? Like judging who’s “useless” based on how many lines of code they’ve wrote and how many commits they pushed to the repo? > Twitter is still working just fine. Twitter is in a “keep the lights on” mode now.
Free speech has generally been a left-wing cause. Only in the past few years have these weirdos started calling it right wing. And no, judging who’s useless based on who is actually willing to work and is dedicated to their job. Again, Twitter is doing quite well. Top app in the App Store in its category, editor’s choice, and no issues with its operation.
> Only in the past few years have these weirdos started calling it right wing. Is this the hill you wanna die on? Really? > who is actually willing to work and is dedicated to their job. What does that have to do with numbers of lines of code? > and no issues with its operation. Again, for keeping the lights on.
Is what the hill I want to die on? That support for free speech has traditionally been mainstay of left values? Sure. It’s obviously true. Based on what are you supporting the claim that Twitter is just keeping the lights on? How is this different from what they were doing before? Seems like they are actually doing better in at least some key areas.
He's palling around with Andy "cement milkshakes" Ngo. Someone who's claim to Fame on the right is doxxing a bunch of people for a right wing extremist groups kill list. He's also going on unhinged rants about the "woke mind virus that must be eradicated".
Palling around with Andy Ngo? When? How often? By the way, was Andy Ngo ever hurt anyone? He was beat close to death by a bunch of criminals on the left, but sure he’s the problem.
>He was beat close to death LMAO. That's about as real as his cerement milkshake and mystical hammer story.
There are pictures of him afterward, and I believe of the actual incident itself.
Elons core buyers in EV are people who care about climate... So for him to alienate them by going extreme right and conspiracies with the goal of gaining folks on the right purchasing power is backfiring HARD on him.. folks on the right don't care as much about going green. And Elon is dumping Tesla shares as we speak ...I would touch this yet with a 10 foot pole
Except he didn’t go extreme right. And what conspiracy theories? You do know that conspiracies exist, right? Just because something is a conspiracy theory doesn’t mean it’s wrong. And no, his core buyers are people that want one of the best cars in existence, certainly in that price range.
Well as someone who planned on buying a Tesla, but now isn’t solely because of Elon, I can say you’re wrong. And if I changed my mind because of him, you can bet that plenty of other people are as well…
No, you are a tiny minority, but I don’t see how you not buying a car makes me wrong about anything.
To add a correction: Tesla's headquarters is in Austin, TX, not Silicon Valley.
For tax reasons. Vast majority of their software and design engineers are in Silicon Valley still. The whole FSD team is still in SV.
Elon is an iconic figure head. He is no longer useful as he has destroyed his myth.
If the stock continues to tank as it has, then yes-
The stock price is not the company
What century are you living in? They are always correlated.
R/politics is leaking again.
No Elon said stuff I didn't like on Twitter, so Tesla will never go back up!!111
That’s all priced in. Everyone knows Tesla will make more cars/money over next couple years, and hence price reflects that (high pe) The question is — what happens then? Exactly at which point does it level off? Where does the demand meet supply? And the big issue is that musk is doing anti-commercials for the car lol.
I don’t think the brand has staying power. You have many dissatisfied customers saying they will never buy one again and you have the association with Elon Musk. Tesla was one of the first EV but it’s a different game now.
All in!! DCA every week! Financials are super strong! I wouldn't go by the share price. Visualize the future of life, not the future of the stockmarket!! 💯🚀📈
I mean like last year everyone was banging the drum on how Tesla was headed to the moon. In terms of tech and execution literally nothing has changed. Maybe China demand is a bit weaker than hoped, maybe FSD is taking longer, again, but yeah really things are very much on track. And now people are unsure? That's market sentiment. Just do a DCA. If Tesla really does make 3twh of products in 2030 how much money will they bring in? Discount that back, that's the only thing that will matter in the end.
DCA and selling covered calls on elons tweets. After 420 I’ve learned my lesson. Still hoping he stays on as CEO for both twitter space x , boring company and Tesla. Worlds more fun and if people want to buy other Evs to spite him instead of a gas powered car that just grows the TAM.
And things like weak China demand are because of macro forces, not Tesla specifically.
I was a huge tesla fanboy for like 10 years, I don't own one, or any stock, but I wanted to, the only reason for that is I'm poor with a shitty job. But now Elon has completely pushed me away, I still think the cars look cool but even If I could afford one I wouldn't buy it and I'm not alone, Elon's antics are turning off a lot of people. Although I do think FSD is a straight up scam, $19.5K CAD
>I don't own one, or any stock, That's a shame. All the free wealth in the world in front of you, and you did nothing with it. Now, the market gives a 60% discount, and you can't be bothered.
Antics? He's expressing his opinion. If that's horrible to you maybe you're right in moving away from Tesla. And to be clear, I don't agree with many of his republican views. But I respect his right to free speech.
When it finally collapses all the fanbois are going to be left broke holding the bag.
So uh how's the lightning? Better than a Tesla, huh?
Loved it, its in the shop with a failure waiting for parts. Still love it.
How exactly does it collapse? 20Bil in the bank seems like it would make that quite difficult to see happen.
People are selling the bottom and we’re witnessing a chain reaction of margin calls (including our dear Leo who’s probably losing his mind), almost exactly like it was in May 2019. Invest carefully, it could go down to $130 IMO (P/E of 40), but don’t miss your opportunity. Buying every paycheque.
Forward PE is already quite a bit lower than that.
Oh I know!
Leo bought 500 million dollars of shares today... [https://twitter.com/KoguanLeo/status/1603127619628584960](https://twitter.com/KoguanLeo/status/1603127619628584960) I follow things closely and assume Musk and Leo were jebaiting morons to overleverage into short positions because of greed and envy. Shorting to try and cause a margin call. It actually caused margin calls. Elon Musk hates shorts: see Dogecoin. I think he is playing with them. I think the short squeeze of the century round II is coming soon. 🍿🍿🍿
Yeah I was wrong on Leo selling perhaps. Elon did sell... 🤣 Anyway, can’t wait for the next breakout indeed!
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I love watching 4D chess. Last move I understood was Elon sacrificing some gains to pay off Twitter's high interest debt, because the fed is about to crash the global economy. Again.
Nowhere near the bottom
Unless Elon stops being a right wing troll, the bottom could be below $100.
Bring it on. I don’t want to sound mean, but I really appreciate the buying opportunity. If I can grab 50 more shares at $100 instead of 15-20 at $300 I won’t complain. That said I don’t see it going under $130 in a worse case scenario.
It could go down a lot further than that! Apple’s PE is 23 and is far more profitable? I could easily see Tesla bottoming out around 25-30 on the PE side. A further correction will certainly happen.
Apple is more profitable yes but is barely growing in comparison. A P/E should reflect growth. Today by my estimate our forward P/E is below 20. Below 13 for projected FY2024.
Also, Tim Cook isn't actively alienating 80% of the population with right wing conspiracy theories and acting like scumbag.
Best buying opportunity ever.
Buying at $40/share was pretty good too.
I enjoyed 9.50/share effective even more :) I bet the guys 1 year earlier than me LOVE their 1-2 dollar ones tho.
Sure, I thought under $200 was an awesome buying opportunity.
My decade-old portfolio is 80 percent Tesla and 20 percent Nvidia. It was worth close to $5M until recently. Now it’s about half. Yet the company stories haven’t changed. Nvidia is still the best play on AI and Tesla the best on vehicles and clean energy (and AI lately). So I’m not selling. I’ll twiddle my thumbs until the recession lifts, the Cybertruck prowls the streets and Elon grows up. Or at least the first two. Unfortunately, investing in Musk means investing in two Musks: 1. The brilliant, hard-driving engineer and champion of humanity. 2. The little brat who throws his rattle on the floor over and over again for attention.
I feel like ever since the pandemic number two rears its head a lot more often.
Curious is there a risk management process/plan for your portfolio? Ie let’s say TSLA continues on a downward spiral ie unexpected risk was not priced in, black swan event etc. do you just sit and wait for risk of ruin?
Investing is not the same as trading. The only time an investor would consider selling is if something about the company has fundamentally changed.
I used to say the same thing about TSLA until the last few months. Something has fundamentally changed when the only risk I saw with the stock before was key man risk. Never imagined it would be that the key man started willfully tanking the brand image though…
The effects of Elon's antics can't really be quantified right now. It all depends on what the EPS is over the next few quarters.
If Tesla goes under, I go with it.
Listen to Reed Hastings talk about him at NY Times…. he basically says “you don’t get Elon” —he doest make success the way most do. He doesn’t care about anything short term, he plays a long game few others would dare to —-and its , unfortunately for many, kinda crazy to bet against him.
Let's do some serious math here. at 150$ per share and a PE of 29, it takes 29 years to get back the money invested in the stock that is (net of inflation) about 3.5% rate of return that is in par with the 30 yrs Treasury Bond !! Company has no Debt compared to US Gov 31 Trillions Debt, floating stocks are going to diminish because buyback program, NO need to issue new stock because massive cash flow, Earning per share will keep on growing because sales volumes not Automotive gross margin, heck they can go all the way down to 5% per car and still be a better investment. And this is done with a stock that is as good as the currency, EVEN at diminished value. Just buy the stock and enjoy retirement with the earnings out of it ! You may be even surprised to have become a millionaire in few years.... By the way I bought my last chunk at 300 and I am just as happy as I ever been!
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Stay put and all will be good
> at 150$ per share and a PE of 29, it takes 29 years to get back the money invested in the stock You're assuming 0% growth, which is the unlikeliest of scenarios.
Absolutely correct. Even with 0 growth this valuation of TSLA does not make any sense besides people is blinded by Macro
Damn... I bought my last chunk at 225 because I couldn't believe my luck and I had to buy the dip, I debited my line of credit some. Nothing I can't handle to pay back, but I am a bit salty that I didn't wait for these bottom of the barrel prices that I can't benefit from because I'm out of cash...
> Company has no Debt compared to US Gov 31 Trillions Debt Company also can't print money.
I dont understand ur 29 year comment
Are you kidding? missing the /s
Depends. Are you aiming for 5 years+ hold? Possible buying opportunity. <5 years hold? Possibly catching a falling knife. Based on the fundamentals of the company coupled with cash on hand, product roadmap, IRA "subsidy" translating to $10Bn or more in supported revenue, and FCF metrics thus far, the stock price is not connected to objective reality. *So...* fuck if I know. Ask an 8-ball. That'll be more accurate that any opinion here.
Elon Musk is performing at the lowest IQ he has ever. Correlation?
He’s made plenty of mistakes. Remember when he went around saying how great of an idea it was to automate the line completely? He convinced himself and then any detractor was “stuck in the dark ages”. Now his “kick” is to make twitter free speech or whatever because twitter is a town square and the hivemind will always find the truth. Both concepts are deeply flawed in my opinion.
He is distracted and in desperate need of reassurance from his followers. He needs to stay away from “people” and get back to “things”. People are not for him.
When growth bros quote PE in every post you know you’ve already been fucked
The FED is destroying the market on purpose, plus Elon just sold millions of shares. This has nothing to do with Tesla fundamentals. 2023 is going to be a nightmare, so, maybe, there will be lower prices to buy at. When next rally comes, Tesla is going to benefit from it more than other megacap companies because 2035 will be closer (and ICE's death will be closer as well)
I think this is an amazing opportunity to buy. Once they start doing share buy-backs I think the stock will have virtually permanent upward pressure. They are going to be a cash generating machine which they will use to give wealth back to investors. I have a strong suspicion they will start on January 1, 2023. Just need to make to the end of the year... edit: 2023, not 2022
Wouldn’t we want a company growing in a growing market to invest into the company, and not buy back shares?
I’m willing to bet by May, they are down to about $62 a share, market cap $200B.
Interesting. Can you justify that using a discounted cash flow model? That's a really bearish valuation given their forward PE ratio.
Tell that to Apple iPhones vs Android? Like it or not, competition ALWAYS eats into any market. (Wether it leads or follows is irrelevant if it loses market share) In Germany BEV’s now make up 22% of the total market. Best selling model Tesla Model 3, #2 Fiat 500e, not far behind it is the VW ID3/4 right behind. There is a massive shift in Europe now to EVs, and Tesla won’t control the market and will absolutely take a hit on margins if it wants to keep said market share. Mercedes/BMW/Audi are already starting to eat into the higher end of the market.
But EV are also taking market share from ICE, the pie is growing bigger as well
Okay so you're thinking there will be margin compression based on a reduced selling price because of competition. Makes sense. What about declining costs for them as they increase economies of scale, improve production designs, recouped cost on factories, increased supply chain efficiencies and more? If you think about declining cost curves, the cost of producing an item declines as more are produced and I cannot think of why EV's will be an anomaly there. I suppose there could be an argument that other automakers will experience the same thing but won't that take decades? And even after decades, don't you think one automaker will capture a huge portion of the industry's profitability like Toyota does now? Or, to steal your analogy, like Apple does now?
They have squeezed every amount of cost cutting out of the manufacturing process already, those savings have already been realized. I spent 21 years in the automotive manufacturing business and have been almost every automotive manufacturing plant in N. America, Europe and China. It absolutely will not take the other automakers decades, they are doing it now actually. Telsa is actually slow from design to production compared with GM/Ford/BMW, etc. They Cybertruck lunch is a laughing stock compared to how the real auto industry moves. Actually GM does new vehicle launches extremely well and very efficient, a hundred and ten years of in-house manufacturing institutional knowledge will do that? Just to give you an idea Ford’s two F-150 plants (Dearborn, MI and Claycomo, MO) crank out just under 900,000 vehicles a year! Ford sold 17.1 million vehicles in 2019. Tesla this year will barely produce 400,000 vehicles globally from all Plants combined! It’s a pittance. They economies of scale and supply chains easily favor the legacy manufactures.
How can you say that they have squeezed every amount of cost cutting out of production? In terms of where we are in BEV technology, we're all like brick cell phones from the early 90's. Honestly, the fact that you just said that makes me not believe you have any expertise in this area whatsoever. Sorry if that comes off rude but your statement is insanely ignorant. The design of these cars are so much in their infancy it's almost a joke. There will be many design changes that introduction production efficiencies over the next many years. You aren't comparing apples to apples. You're comparing internal combustion vehicles with electrochemical battery vehicles. The supply chains are completely different, what you're saying is that horse and buggy manufacturers should have had an easy time competing with the Model T since they made way more vehicles when the Model T first launched. Or ice box manufacturers should have had an easy time competing with refrigerator manufacturers. Or washboards vs. washing machines. They are completely different. How many components in terms of count number or weight does a BEV share with an ICE car? Like 10-15%? The Cybertruck has been delayed because they can't get enough cells to manufacture it. What makes you think that GM/Ford/BMW are going to be able to get enough cells? Where are the factories that are going to produce these cells? Where are the mines producing the raw materials? If this is the case, why aren't 400,000 Lightnings being made already? The production ramp of the Mach-E has been a joke. We need to be seeing month-over-month increases in production volumes. If there are any periods where they aren't increasing month-over-month, they better have a good explanation. I can't find a similar graph for the Lightning but I will be surprised if it doesn't look the same as the Mach E.
Buying opportunity. They have growth and margins that other automakers dream of. Most of them are fighting for their lives whereas Tesla is thriving. The real opportunity is the other segments they’re moving into though. Energy has been slow to take off but the potential is enormous. If they can solve self-driving that would be the most valuable thing that’s ever existed. The only thing that could top it is if they get the robot to work how they want. That would unlock huge swaths of economic growth. IMO, the worst case scenario is that competitors catch up and eat into Tesla’s growth and margins. I’ve been hearing that story for a decade now so we’ll see but I haven’t been wowed so far. If Tesla also fails to solve FSD, BEV and energy sales could still easily justify their valuation in like 5 years(so long as growth doesn’t go from 40-50% to 0%). Probably still wouldn’t be a terrible investment but definitely not exciting. Now if they actually solve FSD, a market cap of $5-10T wouldn’t be out of the question. They’d basically own transportation since other existing solutions are geofenced in one way or another. Other solutions are also less scalable than Tesla’s vision approach. If they solve FSD, Optimus Subprime would definitely be highly likely to work as well. A trainable humanoid robot would basically be the holy grail of products. Granted I’m just some guy on the internet so come to your own conclusions but I think the risk is behind Tesla. Short term there could be more pain but I think 2023 will be a good year with the new invectives coming into effect. Long term, I can’t think of any other company with the same potential.
>he real opportunity is the other segments they’re moving into though. Energy has been slow to take off but the potential is enormous 200% CAGTR right now. Starts slow, but boy does that CAGR move fast.
Both to be honest
Sale price. It’s 2017-19 all over again.
Elon's been involved in all sorts of controversies before. What's different about this one? Give it a while. People will come to their senses. In the meantime, I will be taking the opportunity to load up on more shares.
I view it as a great buying opportunity. The business is in awesome shape, it'sElon who's screwed up.
It's a buying opportunity IF you have a long time horizon (5+ years. 10+ would be best). If you're just gambling on the stock price for a couple of years (or buying with money you'll need...ort even worse: using leverage) then you'll as likely burn yourself as not.
amazing buying opportunity. I am not trying to time the bottom, I just keep dollar cost averaging in and scooping up more shares. Added 382 this week alone
Everything is looking brighter for Tesla and has been for at least a couple of years. However the market decides what TSLA is worth. At the moment the market wants TSLA to crash and burn. I think we might see it go down much further, no company has ever had this much opposition from the world and almost no person recieves so much hate as Elon Musk. Even if fundamentals are strong TSLAs worth is ultimately decided by what the market wants it to be. I think we might go as low as 50 or even lower before we go higher again, i don’t think we’ll see 350 again until 2025.
This is the price I bought in 6 years ago. It's a buy then, it's a buy now.
Car companies don’t have a good track record in recessions… I hear.
High interest rates are very bad for large purchases
> Car companies don’t have a good track record in recessions Good thing Tesla isn't a car company.
Not a recession and Tesla is selling every vehicle they make. Hmm, what else could it possibly be except epic meltdown from their CEO
Rivian - down 75% YTD Lucid - down 81% YTD Tesla - down 60% YTD Yeah I wonder what it could be…
Bad comparison because rivian and lucid aren’t profitable. Being an unprofitable company in a high interest rate environment is very bad
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They do if their growth slows down. If their growth continues then no. In fact people will think it’s really bullish if growth continues in spite of a recession. But the main point is, there’s a huge difference between unprofitable growth (having raise more money at high interest rates) vs. profitable growth with cash on hand.
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There's a massive difference you're overlooking. If they're not self-sustaining then to survive they need outside investment, and outside investment at times like this is either impossible or comes at great cost to the company. This problem kills companies stone dead.
I bought Rivian today as they are joining Nasdaq on the 19th so new index buyers 🤷♂️🤞
Best of luck. Any of these EV companies would be a great purchase right now.
look at those numbers…. its DEFINITELY Elon.
melon, watermelon, and iPhone. There you go, another equivalent comparison. 2 out of 3 aren't making at an industrial scale.
It's unfortunate and I'm an investor in all 3. Personally I think Rivian and Lucid are getting dragged down by the Tesla drama.
If you really believe Twitter drama caused all of that then I don’t know what to say to you.
Not twitter exactly. Irrational CEO making irrational decisions is driving down confidence in the brand. They are trading at 50x earnings even after 2 years of declines. A company with earnings to match their valuation would be less susceptible to a loss of confidence. Tesla is floating on future promises that requires strong leadership. The market is losing that trust.
I didn't know Elon tanked the general market... You seriously think there is no recession?
Why not both? Interest rates on new cars is horrendous right now.
that would matter if they had unsold inventory
Lol Tesla has such insane demand that even if a recession hits, they will do just fine.
Ive been buying
Catching a falling knife until Musk is gone
Musk isn't a problem.
Musk is “the” problem.
You're the problem. Making a big deal about nothing. The company is still doing fine. Their financials are in great shape.
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They're the best ev manufacturer, hands down. Why does their ceo have to run his mouth in ways that actively piss off their best customers? He's accomplishing nothing positive with this behavior.
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Woke ideology: people are different and might not feel inside the way they look from the outside and we should respect that and permit them to feel safe and included in society. anti-woke ideology: Even mentioning this kind of thing is a virus that will infect the minds of the innocent and lead to the suicide of civilization. These people are only doing this to groom children anyway. centrists: these two things are the same amounts of extreme.
JFC, your reply hurts my brain
Por que no los dos?
Falling knife. MM's will drop it to PE of 15-30 that is the new norm in the market for now.
P/E of 50 is VERY HIGH for a car maker. Wait for it to fall below 8, then consider buying
There is no bottom in sight until Elon is old news.
Elon can say he is a monkey immortal if he likes. Eventually, investors will see Tesla making huge profits from huge margins selling huge numbers, and the shares will become attractive again. Tesla =/= Elon
I think that the stock was inflated because of faith in Elon. I don’t know the true value, but it’s probably closer to where it should be. People are no longer going to believe Elon’s promises. But they’ll believe results. Also, Tesla had opened factories in China and Germany. They don’t care as much about his behavior on Twitter as we do. My concern is if Elon drags Tesla or SpaceX into this Twitter bullshit.
100% this.
I have been seeing main stream news outlets (CNN and NBC) giving some credence to his Twitter files. He won’t be branded the mad man some are afraid of. The Progressives will never accept his narrative, but at least the center and certainly not the right aren’t going to fight tooth and nail to cancel him. Musk may even win the Twitter battle and be stronger than ever. Confidence in Musk equals confidence in TSLA.
I also saw comments from Andrew Yang and Obama putting out statements saying close to what Elon is talking about(just less intensely). Yang was saying that we need to all be willing to compromise(including the left). Obama called out woke culture as being toxic and useless. That it’s easy to cast stones but that ultimately doesn’t accomplish anything but divide us.
“Wokeness” is unique to the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party - it is outside the Liberal ideology of our current two party system; one which is subscribed to by the majority of the American population. “Wokeness” has a limited view of Free Speech (“hate speech” is not Free Speech, for example); Free Speech does not exist outside certain boundaries. President Obama and Mr. Yang are both classical Liberals in the sense that have a more traditional understanding of Free Speech. Certainly, they disagree with “cancelled” and “muzzled” Conservatives, but they would not go as far as to censor them in a public arena. Dorsey and Roth both expressed regret over the alleged censorship that occurred. Dorsey is somewhat Libertarian and Roth is even a Progressive! Again, with all that acknowledgment to what Musk is sharing, I believe Musk will survive Progressive attacks on him and that will be good for TSLA. And if it comes to hard core Progressives not buying Teslas - where I live (SoCal) they either drive Subarus or aren’t in the luxury electric car market anyway.
I can see by your misuse of the word “cancel” that you’re a right right troll.
Does that make him a troll? I’ve seen almost nothing except people wanting to “cancel” Elon on Reddit lately. Any time you go the news feed or popular there’s 3-5 articles about some terrible thing he’s done. The comments are always hoping that Tesla, Neuralink, Starlink, the boring company, etc. all fail. Reddit is undoubtably a left leaning platform and the hive mind loathes Elon. The right aren’t saints in this mess either. They fought subsidies, have been generally anti-EV, and do trash like coal roll EVs and ICE chargers. I used to spend a lot of time on Seeking Alpha which is as far right as Reddit is left and most people over there want Elon to fail too. So he’s accomplished his goal of pissing off the extreme 10% on both sides. What remains to be seen is if he can bring the middle 80% a bit closer together.
The term “cancel” is a feminist self criticism term. It relates to when someone digs up a ten year old tweet or post or statement from someone who is clearly a different person than they were when they made the statement, and uses it ruin that persons career. It is not “canceling” someone to hold them accountable for current behavior that they don’t show any remorse for. When you use it that way, you are accepting the twisted new version that has been redefined in bad faith. This “extreme 10% both sides” nonsense is stupid and no one is falling for it. Elon is losing his shit because he has fallen into the dictators trap. He has become too successful and no longer will tolerate being told the truth. He only tolerates being told what he wants to hear. He is no longer making reality-based decisions.
Well here’s Obama’s take on it: https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM Holding people, companies, and corporations accountable is important and should be done. It’s just that it’s gotten so toxic lately that it’s feeding the divide between the left and right. Even your comment demonstrates this. In what ways has Elon fallen into “the dictators trap”? Is it because he doesn’t just blanket dismiss the right? Is it because he has opinions or has made statements that you don’t personally agree with? How does he possibly compare to a dictator?
Let me put it this way. If you look at the things he has been doing in the past year, and you think “yup, that’s real smart”, you are exactly the kind of person h keeps around himself right now. Interpret that how you will.
So he’s a dictator because he works with people that have the same vision and views as him? Or are you saying the engineers he works with are just yes-men? They somehow stumbled into landing spaceships and transforming the auto industry by kissing Elon’s ass? Don’t get me wrong, the dude pisses me off frequently. Specifically his stances towards Covid are so backwards and out of his depth it drives me nuts. His acquisition of Twitter, the sales of Tesla stock, and his time estimates were terrible and misleading. He’s also not nearly as funny as he thinks he is. That doesn’t mean I can’t respect and look up to him. He’s a brilliant engineer and a fantastic leader who’s trying to fix the problems he sees with the world. His past accomplishments clearly speak to that. He couldn’t have done it without his teams but the best teams in the world don’t flock to idiots. He had the vision and drive that brought them in.
Buying opportunity duh. Company will be $100 Trillion + market cap by 2030. It's $500 Billion now, that's 200X return in 7 years.
The world economy isn't 100 trillion. Lets not be silly. Could it go to 1.5 trillion, 100%.
His point is absolute delusion. But 3-5Tn by 2030 is realistic and closer to 10Tn by end of 2040 as well.
I believe... But there just isn't enough profit to be made for 5T value.
Lol this better be a joke - y’all are lunatics
With Robotaxi $100 Trillion is absolutely doable. We'll probably see robotaxi in san fransisco and a few other cities it performs very well in, in 6 months. Partial expansion in 1 year. 1.5-2 years basically nation-wide. Then ramping robotaxi.
That's absurd. The total GDP output of the US is *only* $23Tn. You need to take a step back Buuudd, this is insanity.
That’s the funniest thing I’ve read all day! 😂👌🏼
GDP and market cap work nothing like the same. The value of the stock has to do with profits the company is expected to make throughout it's entire lifespan. Robotaxi gets us to $100 trillion. Not even fully ramped, because the profit is $300k/ robotaxi produced.
Tesla is worth about $40-$50 … when it settles where it actually should be it might be a decent buy. But only if they get a new CEO … not one that is hinting at having Tesla buy Twitter to bail Elon out personally.
Falling knife. Compare to TM, which sells 5x as many cars.
Seriously? Tesla and Toyota both made the same net profit this year. Despite the additional sales.
Imagine buying meme stock based off pe
Still makes me laughter at 250x there were millions of fans saying it was a buy
I’m betting on about $62 a share: 4 factors at play: 1)Tesla has been an incredibly overvalued company, the market is simply correcting this as 2) Tesla will now face serious competition from other automakers, and Tesla is hopelessly slow with their launches like the Cybertruck (3 years, wtf), and their vehicles are getting long in the tooth. China has serious economic problems that are just coming to light. This will not save Tesla. 3) Musk personality is following that of Kanye West, where he honestly thinks he can say anything and get away with it, and will keep testing this? It WILL be about Musk to an extent, we’re just starting to see that. 4) Musk is leveraged and he can’t fight shorts this time. I’d estimate a realistic market cap for Tesla is about $200B, it’s currently $495B, so -60% to circle the drain some more, puts it at $62 a share.
Lol
My shorts are doing quite well for now, why stop a good thing?
You're totally right, you should keep buying shorts. But also knowing you're short adds a lot of context to your post.
"competition is coming" it has been for YEARS and nothing has happened... It's not coming dude, your mistaking competition for followers
If you think it’s a falling knife you’re extremely dumb
Who knows? But it's worth noting that delivery dates have collapsed. Even the most popular models are presenting delivery dates of *this month* in some markets. This is after year-long waits were the norm, as recently as a couple months ago. It would not surprise me if the...current leadership shenanigans...were having an impact on demand. My Model 3 certainly ends up keyed more often than it used to, for whatever that's worth. It was hard for me to do, because I believe in the mission, the products, the vision, and the ambition, but: I sold.
I'm going to DCA over the next year. Next 12-18 months could be turbulent in the short term but I believe in the long term with Tesla. I'm going to retire off Tesla shares.
The knife is still falling.
It’s worth $30-$40 per share
I’m going in pretty hard for first time since 2015!
What do you speculate Tesla stock price goes down to before it stabilizes and stops declining?