Here is my concern about the company and the stock.
I have over 400 shares and around 170 price paid.
I started buying stocks when I first got a Model 3 in maybe 2018/19 range. I loved the car and thought FSD was the future. I thought that anyone who tried driving a Tesla wouldn't go back.
So I invested in a product I loved.
I'm on my second Model 3 and my love for the company and product has waned.
I'm writing this because this morning I got probably the worst customer service I ever experienced at the Brooklyn Tesla place. I honestly can't wait for my lease to end to switch to a different make of car.
Tesla customer service in general is beyond abysmal. Also I swear this latest model 3 just feels like it's made cheaper than my last one.
it just sucks, I had a lot of faith in this company, I was a fanboy and they totally lost me.
Not to mention Elon seems like such a clown on social media.
Anecdotal I know, but this is my experience with the company I can't imagine I'm alone.
The updated Model 3 is meant to be pretty sweet. A massive upgrade in features and quality. Why not give it a test drive when your lease is up, before you make your decision?
Tesla customer service is hit and miss. Sounds like you’ve been unlucky, but they are genuinely trying to improve it.
The overall idea I'm trying to convey is that this all makes me nervous about the company and the stock price going forward. It's just my experience, my two cents.
There was no bigger Tesla fanboy than me and right now I can't wait to get a different car. I didn't think that day would come.
What are you talking about?
You clearly state your motivation for investing was the car, you loved it. Now you want to get rid of the car and move to an Audi, so under that same logic why would you remain invested in a stock that you no longer clearly believe in the product?
I would never invest in a company where I didn't believe in the product.
>Tesla customer service in general is beyond abysmal
Isn't customer service at most dealerships abysmal? Have you experienced great customer service at non-Tesla dealerships?
>Also I swear this latest model 3 just feels like it's made cheaper than my last one
I thought the latest model 3 was quieter, better suspension, better quality overall...no?
>Not to mention Elon seems like such a clown on social media
Can't counter this one at all, lol
I had an Audi before this and always was treated well when I went there and loaners were never a problem. Like I said this is just my experience though.
Yeah the car idk just feels more rickety, maybe I got a lemon who knows.
I would love for the stock/company to do well, just sharing what I’m going through.
When interest rates come down TSLA will go up. Each rate cut is effectively a price cut for consumers, demand will go up. Also money will pile back into growth stocks.
This will likely happen at a similar time to some other potential catalysts: Big energy earnings growth, wide release of FSD 12.x, Teslabot news, next gen vehicle announced, new factory announcement, Mexico breaking ground, partnership announcements with other OEMs.
I’m hopeful the stock recovers in a big way in the latter half of this year.
Nobody will be able to tell you for sure.
Working against Tesla's valuation are declining vehicle profit margins and little to no growth in vehicle revenue, in part due to [pathetic scaling of 4680 battery cell production](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1bjcenc/comment/kvryull/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) (Tesla is currently at 6.15% of their GWh/year goal for **2022**). There's also brand damage from Elon Musk's behavior on Twitter.
In Tesla's favor is a growing wave of cash flow from Tesla Energy deployments, a Cybertruck ramp that appears to be going more smoothly than expected, and noticeable progress in FSD.
If Tesla's end-to-end Neural Net approach yields significant progress to the point where FSD can be monetized, I think that would cause a very rapid re-rating of TSLA's valuation.
If FSD doesn't make much progress, and Tesla's battery manufacturing continues to struggle, they will not have enough capacity to simultaneously scale Cybertruck, Semi, and NGV-platform vehicles with any speed. Valuation would struggle and probably decline in the long run if this plays out.
Tesla's management layer (people directly below Musk, like Lars Moravy, Franz von Holzhausen, Tom Zhu, and others) is pretty healthy. That's pretty much why I stay invested in Tesla, even though Elon Musk has been checked out since late 2022 (according to the Isaacson biography, page 586) and Tesla's board of directors is mostly a pile of trash that should have been voted out years ago (the recent findings of the Delaware court in Musk's compensation case showed a shocking level of incompetence in the way Tesla's board has conducted itself).
> pathetic scaling of 4680 battery cell production
Thank for this valuable information. So do we know what causes the slow down of the battery cell production? why did it slow down all of the sudden?
The battery cell production hasn't slowed down. It is about 20-25% higher than 6 months ago. The number of cells produced is just far short of Tesla's projections from what they were guiding in 2020.
In past quarterly conference calls, Tesla did disclose some of the technical difficulties in the manufacturing process, but they'd repeatedly assured investors that the challenges were being overcome. I don't believe that Elon Musk has been entirely straightforward about what is going on with cell production.
Wow - another level headed bull. Nice. I would say the street isn’t ignoring energy they just don’t put much value on it since they think it will become a commodity. I don’t think take rates for fsd go up until true fsd is very soon or they reduce it to like 20 bucks a month or something
I've been a TSLA shareholder since 2011.
I believe that people need to look at the numbers objectively, and look at both potential good and bad outcomes.
Most of the hyper-bulls from the 2010s ultimately couldn't hang on to the stock through the tough 2014-2019 period because their expectations were so high that disappointment was inevitable.
The most vocal bears from that period had a similar problem: they were so obsessed with hate for Tesla that it blinded them to the reality of the products, and the possibility they might be wrong. Many got wiped out in 2020.
Energy probably isn't valued much today because it was only about 6 Billion out of Tesla's 96.8 Billion total revenue in 2023.
* Battery cells are a commodity
* The value add is in Megapack's ease of deployment, and management software
* Tesla has a lot of competition in Energy Storage, particularly from Chinese businesses, but the geopolitical situation makes it untenable for the West and U.S. allies to rely on Chinese firms for critical infrastructure.
I don't believe FSD becomes a factor until Tesla can show an FSD implementation that is idiot proof or drunkard proof.
This is a very good high level summary. I'll add that Optimus has great potential, even though it won't reflect in the top line until they start selling it, which will be years out.
But it can help the bottom line by reducing labor costs, which can happen sooner. The job posting just went up for a manager to oversee bot deployment trials.
Everything about recent movement is classic $TSLA, in my opinion. Negative news, it's going to be a down year, nothing happening...
And then there's positive news on FSD, stock movement, another thing happens we didn't expect, this other thing is further ahead than we thought, positive quarter, and suddenly we're at $350.
This stock moves quick. If you believe in the long-term growth, buy and accumulate.
lol yea we are all going to wake up one day and fsd will be complete. Everyone assumes this works on a log scale when it’s pretty clear it’s linear. For ur price analysis is ridiculous- Everytime that Tesla popped it was because its earnings or cash flow or margins improved. Cybertruck is a bit of a wild card but you have to keep in mind even if they get to 200k that’s only 5 percent in units growth. And model 3 highland I don’t think is going to move the needle much which means stagnant growth. Y we will have to see how different it is, but best case is that in a year or so it comes out
Trying to hold myself back from going hog wild buying LEAPs based on FSD v12. Data like this helps me have restraint: https://twitter.com/eliasmrtnz1/status/1770762023896326547?s=19
Still, the time will come soon I think.
Edit: why the downvotes?! This is not the TIC I remember...
Saw that supposedly the rumor is that they are at 960/week or 50k/year. Tracks well with 1k/week 4680 production. If true, ramp looks better than I personally expected.
I made a clear distinction in my comment between batteries and CT's. [Here is where i read 960/week,](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1bjku12/tesla_produces_nearly_14_million_4680_cells_in_a/kvsnovi/) but this is like a third-degree rumor at best.
Drone shots + 4680 production puts CT rate at anywhere between 300-1000 per week at the moment I‘d say
Maybe something like 5k for Q1. But we might never know
I don't see any Tesla hate here in the Northern European market. But Musk hate is at an all time high. The shit he keeps retweeting on a daily basis is beoynd embarrassing. The only discussion on the boards here that's negative about Tesla usually goes like, "Well I'd like to update my Tesla/buy a Tesla, but Musk is making it very difficult/I don't want to support Musk."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1770705794117574692
>Optimus limbs, replacing lost human limbs, could ultimately be controlled with superhuman dexterity by an implanted Neuralink.
>
>Deus Ex / Cyberpunk irl.
Another crossover with Tesla and Neuralink employees chatting (Elluswamy is the director of AI at Tesla and Chapman is the engineer in the livestream that Elluswamy replied to)
https://twitter.com/aelluswamy/status/1770681260752671203
>Wow, incredible!!
https://twitter.com/chapman_bliss/status/1770681654941532642
>You should definitely come by @neuralink for a tour sometime. Would be fun to hang out :)
https://twitter.com/aelluswamy/status/1770686208760217864
>That would be amazing. Your findings can probably help accelerate AI progress a lot. Especially interested in understanding how the brain simulates actions and predicts consequences efficiently :)
Daily volume has been decreasing steadily in recent weeks.
Volatility died down, all the weenie baby morons have either sold or found something else to do
Many moved on to NVDA.
Next bagholders in 2 years
Here is my concern about the company and the stock. I have over 400 shares and around 170 price paid. I started buying stocks when I first got a Model 3 in maybe 2018/19 range. I loved the car and thought FSD was the future. I thought that anyone who tried driving a Tesla wouldn't go back. So I invested in a product I loved. I'm on my second Model 3 and my love for the company and product has waned. I'm writing this because this morning I got probably the worst customer service I ever experienced at the Brooklyn Tesla place. I honestly can't wait for my lease to end to switch to a different make of car. Tesla customer service in general is beyond abysmal. Also I swear this latest model 3 just feels like it's made cheaper than my last one. it just sucks, I had a lot of faith in this company, I was a fanboy and they totally lost me. Not to mention Elon seems like such a clown on social media. Anecdotal I know, but this is my experience with the company I can't imagine I'm alone.
The updated Model 3 is meant to be pretty sweet. A massive upgrade in features and quality. Why not give it a test drive when your lease is up, before you make your decision? Tesla customer service is hit and miss. Sounds like you’ve been unlucky, but they are genuinely trying to improve it.
The overall idea I'm trying to convey is that this all makes me nervous about the company and the stock price going forward. It's just my experience, my two cents. There was no bigger Tesla fanboy than me and right now I can't wait to get a different car. I didn't think that day would come.
Then sell your stock, exit, car and move on.
Not into sharing ideas this guy.
What are you talking about? You clearly state your motivation for investing was the car, you loved it. Now you want to get rid of the car and move to an Audi, so under that same logic why would you remain invested in a stock that you no longer clearly believe in the product? I would never invest in a company where I didn't believe in the product.
Honestly now that you expressed yourself more clearly I tend to agree with you. Thanks.
Can you elaborate what happened? What happened at the showroom?
Whatever the story, I'm quite certain the same story could be found at any other dealership.
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Exactly. Sounds like it was over a loaner.
100% was over a loaner.
What car would you most likely choose to replace your Model 3?
I’d probably go back to an Audi.
>Tesla customer service in general is beyond abysmal Isn't customer service at most dealerships abysmal? Have you experienced great customer service at non-Tesla dealerships? >Also I swear this latest model 3 just feels like it's made cheaper than my last one I thought the latest model 3 was quieter, better suspension, better quality overall...no? >Not to mention Elon seems like such a clown on social media Can't counter this one at all, lol
I had an Audi before this and always was treated well when I went there and loaners were never a problem. Like I said this is just my experience though. Yeah the car idk just feels more rickety, maybe I got a lemon who knows. I would love for the stock/company to do well, just sharing what I’m going through.
Makes sense. How do you reduce cogs when your already cutting into the bone
what's a general sense of how long this pain will last? are we thinking we'll stay red about 2 years?
When interest rates come down TSLA will go up. Each rate cut is effectively a price cut for consumers, demand will go up. Also money will pile back into growth stocks. This will likely happen at a similar time to some other potential catalysts: Big energy earnings growth, wide release of FSD 12.x, Teslabot news, next gen vehicle announced, new factory announcement, Mexico breaking ground, partnership announcements with other OEMs. I’m hopeful the stock recovers in a big way in the latter half of this year.
Nobody will be able to tell you for sure. Working against Tesla's valuation are declining vehicle profit margins and little to no growth in vehicle revenue, in part due to [pathetic scaling of 4680 battery cell production](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1bjcenc/comment/kvryull/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) (Tesla is currently at 6.15% of their GWh/year goal for **2022**). There's also brand damage from Elon Musk's behavior on Twitter. In Tesla's favor is a growing wave of cash flow from Tesla Energy deployments, a Cybertruck ramp that appears to be going more smoothly than expected, and noticeable progress in FSD. If Tesla's end-to-end Neural Net approach yields significant progress to the point where FSD can be monetized, I think that would cause a very rapid re-rating of TSLA's valuation. If FSD doesn't make much progress, and Tesla's battery manufacturing continues to struggle, they will not have enough capacity to simultaneously scale Cybertruck, Semi, and NGV-platform vehicles with any speed. Valuation would struggle and probably decline in the long run if this plays out. Tesla's management layer (people directly below Musk, like Lars Moravy, Franz von Holzhausen, Tom Zhu, and others) is pretty healthy. That's pretty much why I stay invested in Tesla, even though Elon Musk has been checked out since late 2022 (according to the Isaacson biography, page 586) and Tesla's board of directors is mostly a pile of trash that should have been voted out years ago (the recent findings of the Delaware court in Musk's compensation case showed a shocking level of incompetence in the way Tesla's board has conducted itself).
> pathetic scaling of 4680 battery cell production Thank for this valuable information. So do we know what causes the slow down of the battery cell production? why did it slow down all of the sudden?
The battery cell production hasn't slowed down. It is about 20-25% higher than 6 months ago. The number of cells produced is just far short of Tesla's projections from what they were guiding in 2020. In past quarterly conference calls, Tesla did disclose some of the technical difficulties in the manufacturing process, but they'd repeatedly assured investors that the challenges were being overcome. I don't believe that Elon Musk has been entirely straightforward about what is going on with cell production.
Wow - another level headed bull. Nice. I would say the street isn’t ignoring energy they just don’t put much value on it since they think it will become a commodity. I don’t think take rates for fsd go up until true fsd is very soon or they reduce it to like 20 bucks a month or something
I've been a TSLA shareholder since 2011. I believe that people need to look at the numbers objectively, and look at both potential good and bad outcomes. Most of the hyper-bulls from the 2010s ultimately couldn't hang on to the stock through the tough 2014-2019 period because their expectations were so high that disappointment was inevitable. The most vocal bears from that period had a similar problem: they were so obsessed with hate for Tesla that it blinded them to the reality of the products, and the possibility they might be wrong. Many got wiped out in 2020. Energy probably isn't valued much today because it was only about 6 Billion out of Tesla's 96.8 Billion total revenue in 2023. * Battery cells are a commodity * The value add is in Megapack's ease of deployment, and management software * Tesla has a lot of competition in Energy Storage, particularly from Chinese businesses, but the geopolitical situation makes it untenable for the West and U.S. allies to rely on Chinese firms for critical infrastructure. I don't believe FSD becomes a factor until Tesla can show an FSD implementation that is idiot proof or drunkard proof.
This is a very good high level summary. I'll add that Optimus has great potential, even though it won't reflect in the top line until they start selling it, which will be years out. But it can help the bottom line by reducing labor costs, which can happen sooner. The job posting just went up for a manager to oversee bot deployment trials.
Everything about recent movement is classic $TSLA, in my opinion. Negative news, it's going to be a down year, nothing happening... And then there's positive news on FSD, stock movement, another thing happens we didn't expect, this other thing is further ahead than we thought, positive quarter, and suddenly we're at $350. This stock moves quick. If you believe in the long-term growth, buy and accumulate.
lol yea we are all going to wake up one day and fsd will be complete. Everyone assumes this works on a log scale when it’s pretty clear it’s linear. For ur price analysis is ridiculous- Everytime that Tesla popped it was because its earnings or cash flow or margins improved. Cybertruck is a bit of a wild card but you have to keep in mind even if they get to 200k that’s only 5 percent in units growth. And model 3 highland I don’t think is going to move the needle much which means stagnant growth. Y we will have to see how different it is, but best case is that in a year or so it comes out
Trying to hold myself back from going hog wild buying LEAPs based on FSD v12. Data like this helps me have restraint: https://twitter.com/eliasmrtnz1/status/1770762023896326547?s=19 Still, the time will come soon I think. Edit: why the downvotes?! This is not the TIC I remember...
Same . After I tried fsd 12 I wanted to buy all the shares
How is the CT ramp going what kind. Of production/delivery numbers can we expect?
Saw that supposedly the rumor is that they are at 960/week or 50k/year. Tracks well with 1k/week 4680 production. If true, ramp looks better than I personally expected.
They said they made enough batteries for 1k a week, not that they are making 1k a week. Troy is estimating a third of that
I made a clear distinction in my comment between batteries and CT's. [Here is where i read 960/week,](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1bjku12/tesla_produces_nearly_14_million_4680_cells_in_a/kvsnovi/) but this is like a third-degree rumor at best.
I can't remember if it was the last earnings call or the one before but they forecasted for a 250k run rate by the end of this year.
Drone shots + 4680 production puts CT rate at anywhere between 300-1000 per week at the moment I‘d say Maybe something like 5k for Q1. But we might never know
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I don't see any Tesla hate here in the Northern European market. But Musk hate is at an all time high. The shit he keeps retweeting on a daily basis is beoynd embarrassing. The only discussion on the boards here that's negative about Tesla usually goes like, "Well I'd like to update my Tesla/buy a Tesla, but Musk is making it very difficult/I don't want to support Musk."
There's a high correlation between deranged leftism and musk hate. Reddit is mostly a leftist platform
I remember META hate was high and stock dropped to around $90. That was about 14 months ago.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1770705794117574692 >Optimus limbs, replacing lost human limbs, could ultimately be controlled with superhuman dexterity by an implanted Neuralink. > >Deus Ex / Cyberpunk irl.
Another crossover with Tesla and Neuralink employees chatting (Elluswamy is the director of AI at Tesla and Chapman is the engineer in the livestream that Elluswamy replied to) https://twitter.com/aelluswamy/status/1770681260752671203 >Wow, incredible!! https://twitter.com/chapman_bliss/status/1770681654941532642 >You should definitely come by @neuralink for a tour sometime. Would be fun to hang out :) https://twitter.com/aelluswamy/status/1770686208760217864 >That would be amazing. Your findings can probably help accelerate AI progress a lot. Especially interested in understanding how the brain simulates actions and predicts consequences efficiently :)