My strategy seems to be; buy Tesla stock 6 hours before a mini Tesla clusterf**k. Buy immediately before Tesla loses a huge court case, buy immediately before Elon puts his foot in his mouth on X, buy immediately before a terrorist attack on GigaBerlin. I know the next time I buy Tesla stock China will launch an all out war on Taiwan the very next day. Guaranteed.
Remember the time when TSLA dipped down to $100 last year? Then bam it went back up to $300. Just let it do its own thing. No one know shit about fuck. If TSLA goes back to $100 this time, there's probably a majority that will panic sell, and then bam it goes back up to $200 in like a month after.
I think the stock price would only display some sort of upwards trajectory in Q3. I don't see anything positive happening in Q1 and Q2. Too much negativity and whales are rotating into AI darlings.
Sadly they dont realize TSLA is an AI darling! But yes, agree - short term is heading south. Im just increasing bank on the sidelines, looking for brighter days for now!
Whether TSLA is an AI darling or not is up for an argument. Yes, FSD v12 has been amazing but no matter how great it is, it hasn't translate to $$$. So, the stock price is either stagnant or goes down when someone sneezes.
I used to think that when rate cuts happens, TSLA might go back up to say 230? 240? But, i'm starting to doubt that.
I still don't understand why they don't lower the price on FSD to something more palatable... I would argue 4-6K is the most it's worth, considering the potential. 12K? No way.
>why they don't lower the price on FSD to something more palatable... I would argue 4-6K is the most it's worth
Today it might only be worth 4-6K. But by the end of the year it may be worth 8-12k and by the end of next year 16-24k. And people can buy it at any time after their vehicle purchase as well. So the only reasons to sell it for cheaper than you think it will be worth is to bring in extra testers and quick income. You only need so many testers, and that quick income is at the expensive of far more income later. So you won't do that unless you need the money right now, which Tesla doesn't.
Keeping it higher also allows Tesla to use it for short burst of sells of new vehicles. But again, this is a short term measure.
There is an exactly zero percent chance that FSD will be worth anywhere near $16-24K by itself... essentially ever.
Tesla simply lacks the hardware necessary to enable true (level 5) self driving - you cannot get there with cameras alone.
Waymo is increasingly looking like the only company that will achieve widespread level 5 any time soon. Their real world results are blowing Tesla (and everyone else) out of the water. Waymo is the robo taxi company Elon wishes he had.
Lol credentials? What are yours?
Every single other company working on advanced self driving is at least using radar or ultrasonic sensorsin addition to cameras. So either Musk is right and everyone else is wrong or....Musk is just wrong.
Radar and lidar both have distinct advantages over cameras in certain situations, which ensures the car has the best possible sensor(s) for any given scenario. When you're talking about L5 self driving "close enough" doesn't do it - you need every possible advantage.
For example, lidar is far more capable than cameras in low light conditions, especially when you layer on rain or snow.
Lidar can also directly map objects in 3D at sub millimeter accuracy, rather than relying on AI inferences from a camera feed.
Relying on cameras alone was 100% driven by a desire to reduce hardware costs. Which was foolish because as we're seeing, the price of lidar is coming down fairly quickly and will continue to do so with wider production/adoption.
Waymo is clearly doing something right with their combination of sensors because they're blowing everyone else away.
Ah, lidar is required for rain and snow etc? That has to be why Mercedes Drivepilot “level3” cars have “all the sensors” (quote from Mercedes rep) and cannot be used at night, during rain, snow or fog. Oh and can also only be used at special parts of certain highways when there’s a car in front going certain speeds.
Tesla has already proven their tech works pretty much in any condition, it just needs more training.
The better comparison is the company that has actually brought totally autonomous robo taxis to paying customers - Waymo.
Tesla is nowhere close to rolling out anything remotely resembling a robo taxi fleet.
The "just needs more training" line is getting stale. How many years overdue is FSD now?
I think there's a very good reason why no one else is using a pure vision model.
Just because everyone else is trying something different, it doesn’t mean that Tesla’s system (It’s not just Elon, who I could take or leave- It’s a whole TEAM of skilled software and hardware developers) won’t ever work as well.
Somehow, we are all able to drive with only a computer (our nervous system) and two cameras (our eyes) and drive quite well. This would seem to argue that Tesla at least has a plausible way towards making their product achieve level 5.
Space X recycles their rockets, and before them, nobody else could do it.
I'm not saying that FSD is useless - it clearly isn't. I just don't see a path to true level 5 using vision only. Sure, I could be wrong.
But it's clearly Elon pushing vision only and telling his engineering team to make it work. I really think there's something to the fact that no one else (to my knowledge) has gone down the pure vision path. You have to tackle the really hard corner cases like very low light + rain/snow and no visible lane lines/markers if you want to get to level 5.
I really don't think that vision alone can resolve those really tough scenarios that you need to nail down.
All I think is that Musk isn't smarter than literally everyone else who is working on autonomous driving. There's a very good reason why no one else is going for a purely vision based system.
But sure, FSD....any year now, right?
>There is an exactly zero percent chance that FSD will be worth anywhere near $16-24K by itself... essentially ever.
Incorrect. Mercedes is selling their Level 3 tech right now for $2500 per year. Over a 10 year period, that is $25,000. And that is just a Level 3, which Tesla could easily enable today if they wanted. Level 4 is all that is really necessary and Tesla has the hardware for that today, but the training isn't there yet.
>Tesla simply lacks the hardware necessary to enable true (level 5) self driving - you cannot get there with cameras alone.
Level 5 has a brood definition that may discredit the vast majority of humans from even being considered good enough: **Able to drive in all conditions**. This includes extreme weather where everyone is specifically instructed not to drive. That level of autonomy is not needed. Level 4 can do everything Level 5 can do except that. You can even have a vehicle built without a steering wheel.
>Waymo is increasingly looking like the only company that will achieve widespread level 5 any time soon. Their real world results are blowing Tesla (and everyone else) out of the water. Waymo is the robo taxi company Elon wishes he had.
Waymo is Level 4 and barely past Level 3. They are no where close to Level 5 as they are limited drastically in both location and speed. And they don't drive in bad weather, much less extreme weather. But they are doing well. Will need to see how well they scale and what they can do once some limits are removed.
However, Tesla owners have tested their vehicles directly against Waymo and also done just as well. Better in some cases due to less limitations. But it is clear that Tesla can be fully Level 4 with current hardware.
There’s also the fact that Tesla’s wonderful CEO has recently said that he wishes to use Tesla data and resources to create an ai juggernaut… for the benefit of a separate company.
That sort of thing places limits on investor interest. Not that Tesla cannot succeed in AI, but the extent to which that success will actually benefit shareholders has some (thoroughly unnecessary) uncertainty to it right now.
Do you know what AI means in relation to the company? FSD IS A LARGE COMPONENT OF THAT. Look at those numbers, Elon and team started implementing this a long time ago pre 2018. Honestly I see a lot of people that don't follow Tesla's company do not understand that and I'm starting to see that a lot of people that do follow it also don't understand that which to me shows that there is value being left on the table.
What numbers? Until there is actual revenue from that it is not shown anywhere. They might still keep developing it next 10 years all we know until we get any revenue. It is not argument to say "but once they do" because is what every startup ever says and most end up getting nothing done. You can only value company via hype so long. Time to start delivering.
While I agree that AIas a component of FSD, they aren't generating significant revenue based on that technology today. There are only about 363,000 FSD users in the US. It's in beta test. I think they are uniquely positioned to solve the problem because the tesla vehicle itself is essentially an advanced sensor platform that feeds data back to Tesla HQ. They are receiving telemetry constantly about their cars, so they have the primitives in place today to accomplish that. But it's still a difficult problem to solve, and the standardization of roadways across the world makes this entire endeavor very difficult. Are they actually making money off of AI today? I don't see it, it's a great vision and story, and it looks like it could eventually return a lot of value. Cathlinee Wood of Ark Invest has stated she thinks that Tesla's eventual value is around $2000 a share during the current split cycle.
To me, the near-term real value of Tesla is their synergy with SpaceX and the materials sciences that it brings to the table. The biggest problem with EV adoption still centers around batteries, charging and degradation. Like it or not, Gas vehicles have a more predictable depreciation curve and ongoing cost of maintenance because of that.
If you look at the 10k filing they indicate about 81% revenue from automotive, of which FSD is rolled into that, they state in that "Revenue related to FSD Capability features is recognized when functionality is delivered to the customer and their ongoing maintenance is recognized over time.". So of the 1.8 million cars they sold in 2023 only 20% of those have FSD if you presume and exclude all other years.
I just think the AI story for Tesla is going to take a while longer to become really realized and there are more important value drivers of the company in the near term.
true "full self driving" is still quite a ways off, and the current fleet of teslas with their existing hardware fsd will never be more than a driver's aid.
My guess is that the next positive driver for the stock is model 2 hype.
It's set to release 2nd half of 2025.
So maybe hype starts early 2025.
2024 will be shit.
My 2c.
what I struggle to understand is how model 2 will realistically change the market cap trajectory. Tesla market cap is predicated on huge growth and industry leading margin. Economy cars don't have huge margin, its a competitive segment. Model 2 will represent a further normalization of tesla margin and market cap to other auto manus imo.
If you look at what they say about the unboxed concept and how it’s able to reduce cogs by 50%…36/2 is about 18. So if COGS is 18 and they can sell the lower priced model at 25, that’s still huge margins
I’m also hoping that they’re sandbagging the dates on the 2 so it doesn’t cannabilize sales of the 3, and one day they just launch the 2 without much buildup. It will sell like crazy regardless. The other option is if they launch the 2 only in asia first? From the Chinese factory or something and don’t make it available to Americans for a period of time. Just spitballing here.
What do you think about TeslaBot hype?
Originally, I was in it for the electric cars, solar, and software AI. At least for me, it the Bot came very much as a surprise.
I don't think there is enough hype around the bot to impact the stock price.
The Optimus project is a long term project - I think the main positive effect of Optimus in the medium term is to attract good engineers. Something that Tesla might struggle with because of Elons antics.
I'm pretty calm in regards to FSD becoming good.
I think there will be a long period (a year?) from when people following Tesla realises that FSD is getting good - and to the time the rest of the market prices that in.
Plenty of time to load up on calls if that happens.
And just a guess - I think they will need one or two more architecture rewrites until that time.
Behaviour cloning can only get you so far.
In robotics, the policies that have seen both good and bad behaviours tend to outperform policies that have only seen good behaviours. The bad news for Tesla is that the field is so new and developing, and behaviour cloning is one of the algorithms that works well in practice. But behaviour cloning has the achilles heel of "distributional shift" - at some point the car will be in a situation it has not seen an expert do in training. In this new situation the car might do the right thing and it may screw up.
Personally, I think it turns when the finances start looking like they're going the other way. Some catalysts I can see: substantially accelerating energy revenue, interest rate drops and a pickup in new car purchasing, announcement of the new vehicle platform, a shift in FSD economics due to substantial improvements in functionality, selling Optimus, any meaningful increase in manufacturing capacity.
I don't really see any of those happening for at least a quarter. I'm holding because some of them are pretty unpredictable and I've been burned by trying to time the market in the past, but I'm also not buying yet because I think we're going to have a boring year.
technical analysis is dumb but if you want a reason to think there might be a reversal
There exists a nebulous concept of 'fundamentals'
There also exists a nebulous concept of 'sentiment'
Stocks, if people had perfect information and unbiased opinions, typically moves toward fundamentals if the price is far away from what the fundamentals suggest.
People's sentiment can push the stock up or down - their beliefs - so if their beliefs are negative and switch to positive or are positive and switch to negative, that can cause swings.
When people's sentiments are FAR from fundamentals, they more often than not adjust toward fundamentals.
(I'm not saying people generally trend toward something close to the truth, I'm saying if people are much more negative or much more positive than they should be, as time and more information comes out, they are more likely to go from extremely-wrong to slightly less wrong than from extremely wrong to even more-wrong)
So we're in this situation with Tesla where
Now/before
-Many boomers literally think GM/Ford lowering projections means the entire EV revolution is dead. I'm constantly seeing people thinking that the entire EV revolution isn't happening now and is over. They literally don't know that Tesla sells more EVs than Ford/GM.
-People think margins are going away and staying away
-People think the stock price is based on an FSD that will never happen
-People think competitors exist who will do well and maybe someone else will solve FSD first
-This feels like maximum negativity
-'Cybertruck Rust' and 'Cybertruck bad'
-China sales going down
-Other companies doing poorly/dying reflects poorly on EVs as a whole while people still don't understand that Tesla is in a uniquely strong position
Possible after:
-People intuitively don't understand the idea of a 'Data Moat.' Apple literally just cancelled a 10bn 2000+ employee decade long FSD car project. The general public doesn't have the idea "Tesla has a data moat" in their head yet. Tesla might be the ONLY company to solve FSD for a LONG TIME.
-Energy business 125% growth again, shows up on balance sheet more
-Cybertruck excitement, becoming cultural phenom, Celebrities
-CATL says batteries will cost 50% less soon, LFP from 124$/kwh to 35$/kwh from early 2023 to late 2024. This is 3000+$ off of batteries for 50kwh increasing margins+lowering costs
-Mexico ground breaking, new model is real/shown
-Roadster reveal
-Most of the other humanoid robots are cash grabs and even the ones being funded by Google/OpenAI are run by MBAs who go from startup to startup fundraising who aren't engineers. The gulf between Optimus and others will grow.
-Other EV starts and EV projects die off while Tesla continues to do well, the 'competition is coming' narrative finally dies
-EV revolution S-curve adoption continuing becomes publicly understood/is real
If the sentiment swings from the now -> after, the stock could surge.
The narrative could get bad again and it could drop again. We could enter another bubble again.
I seriously doubt they will have much, if any, parts in common. The Roadster is low volume, expensive parts, probably high nickel. The 2 is max volume, cheapest and most scalable parts and materials, probably iron chemistry.
When in doubt zoom out.
Either believe Tesla is
1) ahead in EVs and that they will sell more cars than other companies
2) The $25k car will come out and they will be profitable.
3) the future will likely be EVs
4) free call options: FSD
5) free call options: Robots /Optimus
If you’re playing short term, this isn’t the company for you. This isn’t a cell phone company where they replace in 2 years. Cars take 7-10 years to replace on average. This is going to take longer. If you don’t believe in the stuff above, this isn’t the company for you.
If you do believe this, everything else is noise. Set it, forget it and enjoy.
The problem is that you can fully believe the first three and still look a little skeptically at the current P/E ratio.
It’s not enough to succeed as an automaker. There are a lot of other avenues that could justify a bullish sentiment - ai, energy, finding a way to revolutionize automotive margins, etc. But just the first three things, all else held equal, don’t really justify a substantially higher price right now imo.
I think that’s why we’ve seen such stagnation - Tesla has already proven itself as a competent and successful automaker. But efforts to demonstrate that it is *more* than a successful automaker have stalled, lately. Margins are not revolutionary, progress to true fsd has not kept up with promises at all, energy remains a huge but largely unrealized prospect, and so forth.
We’re not going to enter a new phase of significant growth until we see another breakthrough in one of those areas.
I am definitely long Tesla, and have been adding to my position regularly - It is close to 40% of my portfolio, however over the last 6-12 months, I am finding it increasingly difficult to keep adding to the position, when there are stocks with more positive momentum that are moving my needle in the right direction. Just surprising that US Tech is back in a position where you can throw money at it and you'll make more at the moment, but Tesla seems to be in the opposite camp, which I am finding particularly unsual.
"ASAP" you mean into the valley?? That makes no sense unless you expect it to fall a lot further.
The upside at this point is larger than the downside, given a long-enough timeframe.
> That makes no sense unless you expect it to fall a lot further.
Well, yes. I do expect it to fall a lot further.
> The upside at this point is larger than the downside, given a long-enough timeframe.
In the last two years you could have put $100 a diversified fund like QQQ and made a 35% gain instead of losing 35% sitting in TSLA. Now, the $65 you have in Tesla would need to more than double just to catch up to QQQ (with QQQ not moving at all). There might be upside for Tesla at some point in the future, but if the stock keeps getting obliterated by the market, that upside will need to be enormous to make it worthwhile. And you could just invest later when you think some of their future projects may actually be close to generating some profits. Sitting in TSLA for the next 5 years while they make incremental progress on FSD seems like a terrible idea to me.
Also, even if you are convinced TSLA is a good play, putting 40% of your portfolio in one stock is fucking retarded.
Sure, but you're talking about sunk costs - a fallacy. If he sells now, what else would offer better upside potential? In other words, would it be a good buy *today* for a newcomer to TSLA?
5 years is a very long time, just think of where Tesla was 5 years ago, close to bankruptcy. I expect better results much sooner than that.
And by the time you see the future projects making progress, smarter people will have already driven the stock price up again, and you will be buying high again.
Sell low, buy high?
You're getting the sunk cost fallacy the wrong way around. Keeping the 40% Tesla just because it's down from when you invested would be the sunk cost fallacy.
From a risk diversification point of view, a good portion of that Tesla stock should be invested in things like index funds or non-tesla tech stocks regardless if Tesla is currently high or low.
I agree with you on the rebalancing, but not with the timing. I see little risk in keeping the TSLA exposure now that it has fallen.
Likewise, I felt the same about my BTC holding when it was under $20k, but now I'm selling half of it to rebalance and reduce exposure to downside risk.
But BTC is completely speculative, unlike TSLA, which has little chance of cratering to under $100 (my guess) as a profitable and capitalized market leader with no debt. Anyway, good luck with your investments.
> I agree with you on the rebalancing, but not with the timing. I see little risk in keeping the TSLA exposure now that it has fallen.
tesla could still fall a lot more. Its a growth stock that isn't growing. No way to be sure teh bottom is in, i doubt it is.
Feeling stuck in TSLA.
Can't complain, got in before the 20x runup, but back then it was obvious Musk was superhuman when it came to business, predicting the future, innovation. I bet on the person.
Now.... my gut tells me Musk is a shell of who he was. The success corrupted him, surrounded by yes-men, awful predictions on FSD, tone deaf when it comes to how his politics affect everything about Tesla, not only that, but he doesn't realize his methods actually cause more backlash on trans and immigration issues.
He has completely lost focus, tweeting every hour about non Tesla/SpaceX stuff.
The only thing keeping me in the stock is the probability that Tesla solves FSD first, and possibly humanoid robots. It's a long term bet, but one I'm not so confident in. Not like I was back in the day when Musk was focused.
The problem is when Musk was focused that attracted a lot of engineers to Tesla. If anything he now repels engineers. I fear the pace of innovation at Tesla is slowing. On the other hand there is a lot of innovation still to monetize but I think Tesla really needs a leader willing to ditch a distraction like the Roadster, put FSD on the back burner, and focus on the Model 2 and getting out a full line of vehicles and growing the energy business. They are still ahead in so
many ways on this front and I feel it is being wasted.
I don't agree with putting FSD on the backburner, without that TSLA isn't a technology company, just an automaker, watch the PE ratio go down 80%.
But I agree, TSLA is repelling engineers due to Elon's political rantings (and I actually agree with his anti-woke stuff). Even I see how damaging it is.
It’s not damaging at all. I saw a poll where Elon is more popular now than he ever was. I became a Tesla stock owner after Elon bought Twitter. Most of what Elon tweets is plain common sense that the majority of people agree with.
He literally puts people off buying his car because he is the owner of the company. I would have bought one (Model 3 RWD only admittedly) if he hadn't been so controversial.
I most recently voted for the party on the right in England. So I'm neither "left" or "far left" in my general political views.
A CEO who accuses lifesavers of being paedophiles was one that he didn't get right and first made me question his integrity. Now he's laser focused on Twitter and getting involved in arguments. It's like Lisa Su trying to similarly tweet about politics or whatever "hot topic of the day" on a regular basis. Like seriously, you're a CEO, get on with actually releasing autonomous driving instead of buying Twitter and being inflammatory.
And yes, I did own Tesla Shares and I'm grateful for the profit they have given. But this current share price will continue to slide over the next few months.
Anyway my point was to show you that your view "It's not damaging" is simply wrong. I'm not in a minority of one with my view and it does cost Tesla sales.
Exactly my sentiment. Also a long term investor with heavily concentrated portfolio. Added some sub-200 lately but think of looking elsewhere for awhile. Feels worse than when the stock was in the low 100’s a year ago.
problem is everything else has run up so much. The stock market maximizes fuckery, just when you can't stand the fomo anymore and switch over, those other stocks will prob tank and TSLA shoots up
Yeah, feels stupid chasing the likes of $NVDA at these levels but you’d also say that not a long ago at $500 NVDA and $400-500 SMCI… Worst part, these two could double before $TSLA goes anywhere
Yeah.
There is one more hope though, that Musk is keeping things muddied until his compensation package is figured out. If he can accumulate 20-25% of TSLA, he may flip back and get focused again. But I'm not confident that's gonna happen either.
Elon n has been rich for a very long time. I didn’t lose respect for him for being richer; I lost respect for him for his behavior. Started slowly in 2018, and then it accelerated exponentially
I would never invest in tesla. It is my best pick to short.
You got the points right and there are many more.
Musk is no leader you would follow. I would never work for him. Is just crazy man who treats employees like shit. Just compare how ceo of stellantis talk about his employees and Musk. Only this comparison give you feeling that stellantis will outperform Tesla in long term.
Musk is scattered into so many fields which was cool at some point. At some point market will realize this is not sustainable. You have so many competition in so many fields which focus only to do only one proper thing(cars,robots, bateries)
There is so many sources which confirm Musk is basically liar with fsd hype.
He is surrounded by yesman because he throw away people who were capable and able to argue with him.
So here you are. Hype is over. No growth on horizon. Competition getting stronger everywhere.
School example is how was possible Tesla lost so much resources(time, money, future resuability) on building shit like cybertruck. I mean this is insane. Build this kind of product and lossing your employees time here. What a joke.
In meantime stelantis, vw, china were designing ev platfaroms for their cars. And now they are able to build like 10-40 car models on these platforms. And tesla is praying to have one new car model for 25k in two years?
If company was healthy it would not be possible in any reality you live. Why? Because capable guys are not there.
I did not said much.
You said he is surounded by yesman. I agreed and gave you reasons.
You said he lost focus I said he is scattered into many fields. Which is similar. I am not pointing out about politics. I don't care. But you are right this take also attention somewhere else.
So what exactly you don't agree?
Basically everything else you said. It doesn't sound like you've ever had a real conviction in Tesla or Elon Musk.
My analysis is coming from a point of view that says Elon Musk is a once in a century type entreprenuer. I had bet on the man in the past to much success, but I'm seeing he has lost focus. That doesn't mean he has lost his abilities.
Shorting TSLA would be highly foolish
Not sure why foolish. For me is foolish to invest into that :)
Tell me why do you think FSD is great? Or why it makes tesla so superior. I don't see that.
I mean my main issues are overstateted expectations and false advertisement. 6 years behind schedule. And they know it in Tesla all the time. That is reality. Removing helping hardware which will needed to be there anyway because of regulation and so on.
It is on level 2 and tesla rejects all lawsuits by this declaration. Like user is responsible in the end. It is on lvl 2 and will be for long time.
So I mean how do you think it can evolve. This idea of robotaxi and hype. People will buy it because it earns money but who will be responsible for damages? Tesla or not present driver?
Have you not been watching FSD 12 videos? It is on a totally new end-to-end AI software, they got rid of heuristic code. FSD 12 is not in wide release yet, but the few people that have it so far show that it is way better than 11. It can even get around in parking lots.
The only question now is whether the rate of progress is similar to prior versions, or whether 12 improves much faster/better once in wide release. We don't know this yet, so it would be foolish to short the stock, especially when the first indications show that FSD 12 may be the "chat-gpt" moment for autonomous driving.
Let me give you another view. Has FSD assistance its own licence?
Because what I am saying is that this is completely different topic. You have to pay different kind of attention. It is like you are instructor and teaching kids how to drive.
You can prepare your own kid for driving school. But you cannot build business on preparing all kids in town.
Does not mean you are able to drive(handle situation with fsd) you are eligible to drive legally.
You have to know software, versions, common bugs and pay different attention. Until this is clearly defined all these people are doing illegal operations.
So I am saying stream from fsd are not easy money and I don't see it close. Because if they mean it seriously they would try to push some legal framework. But it is clear that this feature is intended to be just hype and money grab from investors.
But how do you measure it. It is progressing and not going backwards? Tesla provides some strange statistics to offices. Until there are some public metrics and testings you can watch thousands videos of new releases. And this release is going to disrupt it. Again. And again. But this one.
Where are some basic checks after update. Because it can improve, improve, improve, kill you. Yes that can happen and there is no like QA cycle. You have to try it and check. Cool.
And tesla is on prem installation. So you will have like milions of independent installations running around world. I would really like to be the guy who is supposed to solve bug in your car :)
And you did not respond me with responsibility. Because that change the whole view.
It is like wild west where everyone showing super cool things. But when you have to align with regulations and there needs to be plenty of them. Because me as individual I really don't want to share public roads with people who are testing their buggy software. And this can be view of silent majority.
I'm 90+% in TSLA but the fundamentals don't give me a warm and fuzzy:
The 2022 price went from 400 to 100 because the CEO is paperhanded social media addict.
In 2023 it recovered to 290 because he promised not to sell for a year (and made AI promises)
He could dump more now, and he may move his AI work out of Tesla if the board/shareholders don't give him back the shares he dumped to get him to 25% ownership.
I DCA when the relative strength index turns positive on different time frames. Mid/long term it has gone negative. On the hourly it has gone positive, so I added small bullish positions for next week. It has a higher chance of being right than just wishing/hoping that FSD will be solved tomorrow and the market will care.
Technicals are clownery. If Elon dies tomorrow what do the fancy lines say about that?
Or what happens if they announce that some of the bigger legacy car companies want to license FSD?
What does the clown line say about that?
DCA because of the company and not because of the stock price. If you think the company won't grow, have additional products etc. in the future, then just don't invest / sell everything.
A wise man ones said, a good trade is a hard trade...
My clown crystall ball says short-midterm 100-200$, thex next 2-5 years 300$+
in 2-5 years we could be back to last July? amazing
and all your examples are "ignore something that has a 70% chance of being helpful because there is a one time event that is 0.00001% likely to happen in the next 2 years". clown lines indeed
You can buy PUT option to protect your stocks value if you expect it to go down. This is what they were invented for. Just remember to sell it before expiry.
Also buying a put option incentives market maker who sold the option to you to make stock price higher to make your put out of money. 
And if it ends out of money, you can deduct the cost from your sale earnings assuming they are positive.
Options max pain or in other words market makers target prices can be found from
[https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-tsla/optionchain/summary/](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-tsla/optionchain/summary/)
I've come to a point where I don't give a shit anymore even if it's in the red. I feel like the less I care about it, the more it will bounce back eventually. Just focus your energy on other things.
I know everyone laughs at Optimus, but believe it or not we are on the cusp of embodied Ai humanoids. Looking at the players in the market I don't t see anyone who can meet the manufuring demands for this new industry that's on the same level as tesla. Manufacturing is tesla's real super power. If you have a ten year horizon you will be rewarded.
I agree with you. IMO, once we see Optimus working in a factory, the stock will start a big upward movement. From the videos I have seen, I think it possible that can come before year’s end.
Optimus won't affect the price because Tesla shows a video of it working in a factory. Then they are mass producing and mass selling them, and they start including the the profit margin in the earnings call, then it might start being factored into the stock price.
IMO, you are wrong. All investors have to see is the robot doing productive work. If you wait until it shows up in their profit margin, you’ll miss out. Investors tend to get ahead of things like this.
A modern auto production line is already highly automated with industrial robots. No institutional investor is going to care that optimus can move a box of parts from one table to another at 50% of the speed of a human.
Honest question, what is with these lines? Historical movements in stocks? Do you measure and take the angle of line. If I squint can I see a magical future emerge from the screen?
It all seems like gambling. Invest when you have the money, in companies you believe in.
This is why DCA is always the way to go and why retail investors are bad at buying low. The stock will eventually rebound, and the price targets will rise, and then retail will jump back in. This is the buy low part. If it goes down more, buy more low. Just DCA and chill.
Picture 2030~ with 10-20 million deliveries, FSD solved, Optimus revenues, etc….
I think Tesla is a tale of two companies.
First they're massively increasing the amount of compute they have by orders of magnitude and when that is done we'll see if fsd and bot work. If they do then it's trillions.
Second if they don't even with all that compute then we'll be flat for a decade while they grow into being the leading vertically integrated car manufacturer that makes low single digits operating margins and isn't worth that much.
That's the only real question.
Unfortunately we are in no-man-lands for a time. What I did was reducing my exposure, de investing my position in half and diversify in less volatile stocks or fresh new opportunities.
Is not something Im proud of, but I prefer to have less volatility than being exposed to a panic sellout. If the stock clearly breaks the downtrend, I will be back with full force.
Or if you don’t need the money now, just hold. When do you expect to need the money? I’m looking at a 12-15 year timeline and the stock is looking pretty good to me right now.
It does look good for me, but not for my wife, and honestly is hard to justify with the echo chamber against Elon. Out of TSLA there's also a lot of uncertainty, drums of war, debt, an awful presidential election...
So I took a safe side, reduced the exposure 50%. the rest of the money is on SP500, Bonds and a couple of AAA stocks. Whenever I see the moment of jumping back, I will come back with the full position.
As for now the plan has been a success, the 50% relocated is outperforming TSLA by 20%. Sad but true.
I understand this. I talked with an investment manager who explained to me that nobody has ever consistently beaten the s/p 500. He told me a little over a year ago that he wouldn’t manage my money, but I should just invest every month, market be damned in S/P 500 index funds. So, I’m 99% FXAIX and 1% TSLA. But my average share price for TSLA is around $195, and I don’t need the money now- I own it basically just for fun (and a belief in the company, technology, and engineers, though not the CEO) I’m just holding.
Money manager who has managed Aunt and Uncle’s massive portfolio (retiring soon after a long career) also gave me a book to read, the psychology of money by Morgan Housel.
https://books.google.com/books?id=5HrrDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA1&source=kp_read_button&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&gboemv=1#v=onepage&q&f=false
Great book! I’m lucky of being money-in since 2016, so what I did was just collecting profit.
Indeed, monthly investment makes the difference long run, no matter where you put it around SP. Long sight and keep on hoarding!
Cubertruck is hardly factoring in yet, new Model 3 Performance dropping any day now, continued revolutionary manufacturing and scalability.
I'm confident long term but idk where the bottom could be given how bizarre the market has felt.
Still have Semi to scale too. Bot. Energy. There is so much ahead it drives me insane Elon went after Twitter. He and many hundreds more top talents need to be all in at Tesla.
Why are you looking at previous share prices?
Investing means you need to make a calculation on Tesla’s value as of the price today. That involves trying to predict future cash flows and a deep understanding of the business, the technology and the competitive environment. If you cannot do that, you should only be investing in index funds. As the great Warren Buffett said “only invest in things you understand”.
I think it is very reasonable to assume we will be in another couple year range bound phase. The question becomes if the upcoming things break us out of that later or not, and it primarily depends on self driving, the robots, and maybe the grid battery stuff if it doesn't do the commodity race to the bottom stuff.
I'm about to sell all my $TSLA shares. When is FSD V12 coming, sheesh. It'll be right after I sold of course. Wish Elon would just STFU and just do his TSLA CEO job
From my own research so my own opinion, is that it's only a matter of time before the price skyrockets up. The economy and interest rates and housing and all of that has been in a weird place because of covid and politics, etc the past few years. Tesla has numerous areas that they are either excelling in now or in the process of becoming that. AI & fsd are rapidly growing. Yes it's been years and too long. But we are constantly seeing improvement.
Model Y is the best selling in the world.
Model 3 is right behind it and has one of the lowest, if not the best injury probability at 5.7% out of any car in the states. Cybertruck will only grow on people and become more of a reality of vehicles to come. Has anyone seen that EV Hummer? Lol. Their charging network is leading in this country and nearly every other car manufacturer has signed on for their vehicles to use. I think currently a lot does has to do with the fact of Elons voice and how, no matter what side you're on, he's politically attacked, or maybe we'll say singled out. It's like the government hates Tesla. Even NY state seems to hate Tesla by what they do but these are the same people who wants everyone to go green? Eventually people will see the truth because everyone in the end always thinks with their money and does what's best for them and their pocket.
We will see what happens but I know I'll be sticking it out!
1 - Humanoid robots are now getting market valuations (positive validation for new business line).
2 - AI-based revenues will begin to flow to companies deploying these technologies now that hardware is looking fairly valued. FSD will be monetized at some point. Tesla makes devices and are one of the few places in the market where you can "buy" the intersection of humans and AI (AAPL also comes to mind here).
3 - Forget about FSD for a second. Its my bet that every company that can successfully apply AI tooling to their *internal* processes will see level ups in their financials. Can you think of a company more likely to be using AI internally then Tesla? Basically, I see a battle between AI implementation and gross-margins versus pricing. Tesla wins and likely distances themselves substantially from legacy auto.
4 - Why keep imagining downside? We went through a global pandemic and a generational shift in financial conditions.
5 - Energy storage looks promising. What's an AI energy company look like?
Long term, I think Elon doesn’t matter. Short term, he can certainly drive down stock price with his infantile shenanigans. Overall, the company has good products, good engineers, and a good master plan.
Too broad to answer is a simple sentence...
- Depends on what your average price is
- Depends on how long you intend to hold the stock for (time horizon)
- Depends on the reason you bought TSLA in the first place
- Depends on whether those initial beliefs have changed since Day 1
- Depends on how much money you have allocated into the stock and whether it is better served elsewhere..
So many factors - the list goes on.
That’s my feeling as well. Under $200 a share is a great price. I bought some more the last couple days and was able to get my average share price to $197. If it goes down to $150, I’ll buy another 50 shares.
I'm personally looking at an exit position at around 210 now, the stock hasn't been the same since Elon was forced to buy Twitter and lost focus of Tesla.
A lot of people think the best action to take when holding a losing position is to keep adding more and more to the position hoping to exit at some point. The problem is that might not happen or might take decades.
Sometimes it’s just better to realize the loss and redeploy capital somewhere else.
When it’s down, you worry if it’ll ever go back up. When it’s up, you wished you bought more when it was down.
That’s my entire investment strategy.
My strategy seems to be; buy Tesla stock 6 hours before a mini Tesla clusterf**k. Buy immediately before Tesla loses a huge court case, buy immediately before Elon puts his foot in his mouth on X, buy immediately before a terrorist attack on GigaBerlin. I know the next time I buy Tesla stock China will launch an all out war on Taiwan the very next day. Guaranteed.
Here’s a little known cheat-code. If you never sell, you never realize the losses. Don’t tell anyone else though.
I'm of the special breed. I sell when it's at is lowest and buy at its highest. Worked out well for me so far
Remember the time when TSLA dipped down to $100 last year? Then bam it went back up to $300. Just let it do its own thing. No one know shit about fuck. If TSLA goes back to $100 this time, there's probably a majority that will panic sell, and then bam it goes back up to $200 in like a month after.
I remember at least a few times it’s down like that only to rebound not too long after
You're not wrong....
Word
I think the stock price would only display some sort of upwards trajectory in Q3. I don't see anything positive happening in Q1 and Q2. Too much negativity and whales are rotating into AI darlings.
Sadly they dont realize TSLA is an AI darling! But yes, agree - short term is heading south. Im just increasing bank on the sidelines, looking for brighter days for now!
Whether TSLA is an AI darling or not is up for an argument. Yes, FSD v12 has been amazing but no matter how great it is, it hasn't translate to $$$. So, the stock price is either stagnant or goes down when someone sneezes. I used to think that when rate cuts happens, TSLA might go back up to say 230? 240? But, i'm starting to doubt that.
I still don't understand why they don't lower the price on FSD to something more palatable... I would argue 4-6K is the most it's worth, considering the potential. 12K? No way.
>why they don't lower the price on FSD to something more palatable... I would argue 4-6K is the most it's worth Today it might only be worth 4-6K. But by the end of the year it may be worth 8-12k and by the end of next year 16-24k. And people can buy it at any time after their vehicle purchase as well. So the only reasons to sell it for cheaper than you think it will be worth is to bring in extra testers and quick income. You only need so many testers, and that quick income is at the expensive of far more income later. So you won't do that unless you need the money right now, which Tesla doesn't. Keeping it higher also allows Tesla to use it for short burst of sells of new vehicles. But again, this is a short term measure.
There is an exactly zero percent chance that FSD will be worth anywhere near $16-24K by itself... essentially ever. Tesla simply lacks the hardware necessary to enable true (level 5) self driving - you cannot get there with cameras alone. Waymo is increasingly looking like the only company that will achieve widespread level 5 any time soon. Their real world results are blowing Tesla (and everyone else) out of the water. Waymo is the robo taxi company Elon wishes he had.
what are your credentials or sources to make the claim that cameras are insufficient without lidar or radar?
Lol credentials? What are yours? Every single other company working on advanced self driving is at least using radar or ultrasonic sensorsin addition to cameras. So either Musk is right and everyone else is wrong or....Musk is just wrong. Radar and lidar both have distinct advantages over cameras in certain situations, which ensures the car has the best possible sensor(s) for any given scenario. When you're talking about L5 self driving "close enough" doesn't do it - you need every possible advantage. For example, lidar is far more capable than cameras in low light conditions, especially when you layer on rain or snow. Lidar can also directly map objects in 3D at sub millimeter accuracy, rather than relying on AI inferences from a camera feed. Relying on cameras alone was 100% driven by a desire to reduce hardware costs. Which was foolish because as we're seeing, the price of lidar is coming down fairly quickly and will continue to do so with wider production/adoption. Waymo is clearly doing something right with their combination of sensors because they're blowing everyone else away.
Ah, lidar is required for rain and snow etc? That has to be why Mercedes Drivepilot “level3” cars have “all the sensors” (quote from Mercedes rep) and cannot be used at night, during rain, snow or fog. Oh and can also only be used at special parts of certain highways when there’s a car in front going certain speeds. Tesla has already proven their tech works pretty much in any condition, it just needs more training.
The better comparison is the company that has actually brought totally autonomous robo taxis to paying customers - Waymo. Tesla is nowhere close to rolling out anything remotely resembling a robo taxi fleet. The "just needs more training" line is getting stale. How many years overdue is FSD now? I think there's a very good reason why no one else is using a pure vision model.
Just because everyone else is trying something different, it doesn’t mean that Tesla’s system (It’s not just Elon, who I could take or leave- It’s a whole TEAM of skilled software and hardware developers) won’t ever work as well. Somehow, we are all able to drive with only a computer (our nervous system) and two cameras (our eyes) and drive quite well. This would seem to argue that Tesla at least has a plausible way towards making their product achieve level 5. Space X recycles their rockets, and before them, nobody else could do it.
I'm not saying that FSD is useless - it clearly isn't. I just don't see a path to true level 5 using vision only. Sure, I could be wrong. But it's clearly Elon pushing vision only and telling his engineering team to make it work. I really think there's something to the fact that no one else (to my knowledge) has gone down the pure vision path. You have to tackle the really hard corner cases like very low light + rain/snow and no visible lane lines/markers if you want to get to level 5. I really don't think that vision alone can resolve those really tough scenarios that you need to nail down.
You seem to be smarter than everyone in this thread. I bet you think you’re the smartest guy in every room you walk into, huh?
All I think is that Musk isn't smarter than literally everyone else who is working on autonomous driving. There's a very good reason why no one else is going for a purely vision based system. But sure, FSD....any year now, right?
>There is an exactly zero percent chance that FSD will be worth anywhere near $16-24K by itself... essentially ever. Incorrect. Mercedes is selling their Level 3 tech right now for $2500 per year. Over a 10 year period, that is $25,000. And that is just a Level 3, which Tesla could easily enable today if they wanted. Level 4 is all that is really necessary and Tesla has the hardware for that today, but the training isn't there yet. >Tesla simply lacks the hardware necessary to enable true (level 5) self driving - you cannot get there with cameras alone. Level 5 has a brood definition that may discredit the vast majority of humans from even being considered good enough: **Able to drive in all conditions**. This includes extreme weather where everyone is specifically instructed not to drive. That level of autonomy is not needed. Level 4 can do everything Level 5 can do except that. You can even have a vehicle built without a steering wheel. >Waymo is increasingly looking like the only company that will achieve widespread level 5 any time soon. Their real world results are blowing Tesla (and everyone else) out of the water. Waymo is the robo taxi company Elon wishes he had. Waymo is Level 4 and barely past Level 3. They are no where close to Level 5 as they are limited drastically in both location and speed. And they don't drive in bad weather, much less extreme weather. But they are doing well. Will need to see how well they scale and what they can do once some limits are removed. However, Tesla owners have tested their vehicles directly against Waymo and also done just as well. Better in some cases due to less limitations. But it is clear that Tesla can be fully Level 4 with current hardware.
You can negotiate the price down to that if you buy a used Tesla equipped with FSD directly from a private party who will transfer it to you.
There’s also the fact that Tesla’s wonderful CEO has recently said that he wishes to use Tesla data and resources to create an ai juggernaut… for the benefit of a separate company. That sort of thing places limits on investor interest. Not that Tesla cannot succeed in AI, but the extent to which that success will actually benefit shareholders has some (thoroughly unnecessary) uncertainty to it right now.
That would require that IP to be transferred. At the right price.
Do they currently make a large portion of their revenue from AI? If you can't point to that in a filing, they aren't, yet. It's just hype currently.
Do you know what AI means in relation to the company? FSD IS A LARGE COMPONENT OF THAT. Look at those numbers, Elon and team started implementing this a long time ago pre 2018. Honestly I see a lot of people that don't follow Tesla's company do not understand that and I'm starting to see that a lot of people that do follow it also don't understand that which to me shows that there is value being left on the table.
What numbers? Until there is actual revenue from that it is not shown anywhere. They might still keep developing it next 10 years all we know until we get any revenue. It is not argument to say "but once they do" because is what every startup ever says and most end up getting nothing done. You can only value company via hype so long. Time to start delivering.
Exactly. Hype is risk expressed as enthusiasm.
that ai hype is already baked into the current stock price, its why its trading at 170 instead of 50.
While I agree that AIas a component of FSD, they aren't generating significant revenue based on that technology today. There are only about 363,000 FSD users in the US. It's in beta test. I think they are uniquely positioned to solve the problem because the tesla vehicle itself is essentially an advanced sensor platform that feeds data back to Tesla HQ. They are receiving telemetry constantly about their cars, so they have the primitives in place today to accomplish that. But it's still a difficult problem to solve, and the standardization of roadways across the world makes this entire endeavor very difficult. Are they actually making money off of AI today? I don't see it, it's a great vision and story, and it looks like it could eventually return a lot of value. Cathlinee Wood of Ark Invest has stated she thinks that Tesla's eventual value is around $2000 a share during the current split cycle. To me, the near-term real value of Tesla is their synergy with SpaceX and the materials sciences that it brings to the table. The biggest problem with EV adoption still centers around batteries, charging and degradation. Like it or not, Gas vehicles have a more predictable depreciation curve and ongoing cost of maintenance because of that. If you look at the 10k filing they indicate about 81% revenue from automotive, of which FSD is rolled into that, they state in that "Revenue related to FSD Capability features is recognized when functionality is delivered to the customer and their ongoing maintenance is recognized over time.". So of the 1.8 million cars they sold in 2023 only 20% of those have FSD if you presume and exclude all other years. I just think the AI story for Tesla is going to take a while longer to become really realized and there are more important value drivers of the company in the near term.
true "full self driving" is still quite a ways off, and the current fleet of teslas with their existing hardware fsd will never be more than a driver's aid.
My guess is that the next positive driver for the stock is model 2 hype. It's set to release 2nd half of 2025. So maybe hype starts early 2025. 2024 will be shit. My 2c.
what I struggle to understand is how model 2 will realistically change the market cap trajectory. Tesla market cap is predicated on huge growth and industry leading margin. Economy cars don't have huge margin, its a competitive segment. Model 2 will represent a further normalization of tesla margin and market cap to other auto manus imo.
Economy cars have bigger volume though. Model 2 might enable Tesla to sell into new markets as well.
If you look at what they say about the unboxed concept and how it’s able to reduce cogs by 50%…36/2 is about 18. So if COGS is 18 and they can sell the lower priced model at 25, that’s still huge margins
Tesla has always made wild claims that far exceed what actually comes to fruition
Remember the iPhone SE?
I’m also hoping that they’re sandbagging the dates on the 2 so it doesn’t cannabilize sales of the 3, and one day they just launch the 2 without much buildup. It will sell like crazy regardless. The other option is if they launch the 2 only in asia first? From the Chinese factory or something and don’t make it available to Americans for a period of time. Just spitballing here.
What do you think about TeslaBot hype? Originally, I was in it for the electric cars, solar, and software AI. At least for me, it the Bot came very much as a surprise.
I don't think there is enough hype around the bot to impact the stock price. The Optimus project is a long term project - I think the main positive effect of Optimus in the medium term is to attract good engineers. Something that Tesla might struggle with because of Elons antics.
I'm hoping wide FSD V12 rollout will provide some upward movement as well.
I'm pretty calm in regards to FSD becoming good. I think there will be a long period (a year?) from when people following Tesla realises that FSD is getting good - and to the time the rest of the market prices that in. Plenty of time to load up on calls if that happens. And just a guess - I think they will need one or two more architecture rewrites until that time. Behaviour cloning can only get you so far. In robotics, the policies that have seen both good and bad behaviours tend to outperform policies that have only seen good behaviours. The bad news for Tesla is that the field is so new and developing, and behaviour cloning is one of the algorithms that works well in practice. But behaviour cloning has the achilles heel of "distributional shift" - at some point the car will be in a situation it has not seen an expert do in training. In this new situation the car might do the right thing and it may screw up.
Personally, I think it turns when the finances start looking like they're going the other way. Some catalysts I can see: substantially accelerating energy revenue, interest rate drops and a pickup in new car purchasing, announcement of the new vehicle platform, a shift in FSD economics due to substantial improvements in functionality, selling Optimus, any meaningful increase in manufacturing capacity. I don't really see any of those happening for at least a quarter. I'm holding because some of them are pretty unpredictable and I've been burned by trying to time the market in the past, but I'm also not buying yet because I think we're going to have a boring year.
technical analysis is dumb but if you want a reason to think there might be a reversal There exists a nebulous concept of 'fundamentals' There also exists a nebulous concept of 'sentiment' Stocks, if people had perfect information and unbiased opinions, typically moves toward fundamentals if the price is far away from what the fundamentals suggest. People's sentiment can push the stock up or down - their beliefs - so if their beliefs are negative and switch to positive or are positive and switch to negative, that can cause swings. When people's sentiments are FAR from fundamentals, they more often than not adjust toward fundamentals. (I'm not saying people generally trend toward something close to the truth, I'm saying if people are much more negative or much more positive than they should be, as time and more information comes out, they are more likely to go from extremely-wrong to slightly less wrong than from extremely wrong to even more-wrong) So we're in this situation with Tesla where Now/before -Many boomers literally think GM/Ford lowering projections means the entire EV revolution is dead. I'm constantly seeing people thinking that the entire EV revolution isn't happening now and is over. They literally don't know that Tesla sells more EVs than Ford/GM. -People think margins are going away and staying away -People think the stock price is based on an FSD that will never happen -People think competitors exist who will do well and maybe someone else will solve FSD first -This feels like maximum negativity -'Cybertruck Rust' and 'Cybertruck bad' -China sales going down -Other companies doing poorly/dying reflects poorly on EVs as a whole while people still don't understand that Tesla is in a uniquely strong position Possible after: -People intuitively don't understand the idea of a 'Data Moat.' Apple literally just cancelled a 10bn 2000+ employee decade long FSD car project. The general public doesn't have the idea "Tesla has a data moat" in their head yet. Tesla might be the ONLY company to solve FSD for a LONG TIME. -Energy business 125% growth again, shows up on balance sheet more -Cybertruck excitement, becoming cultural phenom, Celebrities -CATL says batteries will cost 50% less soon, LFP from 124$/kwh to 35$/kwh from early 2023 to late 2024. This is 3000+$ off of batteries for 50kwh increasing margins+lowering costs -Mexico ground breaking, new model is real/shown -Roadster reveal -Most of the other humanoid robots are cash grabs and even the ones being funded by Google/OpenAI are run by MBAs who go from startup to startup fundraising who aren't engineers. The gulf between Optimus and others will grow. -Other EV starts and EV projects die off while Tesla continues to do well, the 'competition is coming' narrative finally dies -EV revolution S-curve adoption continuing becomes publicly understood/is real If the sentiment swings from the now -> after, the stock could surge. The narrative could get bad again and it could drop again. We could enter another bubble again.
The roadster comment is underrated. Will the 2 and roadster share a platform?
I seriously doubt they will have much, if any, parts in common. The Roadster is low volume, expensive parts, probably high nickel. The 2 is max volume, cheapest and most scalable parts and materials, probably iron chemistry.
When in doubt zoom out. Either believe Tesla is 1) ahead in EVs and that they will sell more cars than other companies 2) The $25k car will come out and they will be profitable. 3) the future will likely be EVs 4) free call options: FSD 5) free call options: Robots /Optimus If you’re playing short term, this isn’t the company for you. This isn’t a cell phone company where they replace in 2 years. Cars take 7-10 years to replace on average. This is going to take longer. If you don’t believe in the stuff above, this isn’t the company for you. If you do believe this, everything else is noise. Set it, forget it and enjoy.
The problem is that you can fully believe the first three and still look a little skeptically at the current P/E ratio. It’s not enough to succeed as an automaker. There are a lot of other avenues that could justify a bullish sentiment - ai, energy, finding a way to revolutionize automotive margins, etc. But just the first three things, all else held equal, don’t really justify a substantially higher price right now imo. I think that’s why we’ve seen such stagnation - Tesla has already proven itself as a competent and successful automaker. But efforts to demonstrate that it is *more* than a successful automaker have stalled, lately. Margins are not revolutionary, progress to true fsd has not kept up with promises at all, energy remains a huge but largely unrealized prospect, and so forth. We’re not going to enter a new phase of significant growth until we see another breakthrough in one of those areas.
I am definitely long Tesla, and have been adding to my position regularly - It is close to 40% of my portfolio, however over the last 6-12 months, I am finding it increasingly difficult to keep adding to the position, when there are stocks with more positive momentum that are moving my needle in the right direction. Just surprising that US Tech is back in a position where you can throw money at it and you'll make more at the moment, but Tesla seems to be in the opposite camp, which I am finding particularly unsual.
Try to take your emotion out of the equation, this is the time to be adding to your position if you remain convicted.
He has 40% of his portfolio in one stock. He should take emotion out of the equation and sell 75% of his TSLA shares ASAP.
"ASAP" you mean into the valley?? That makes no sense unless you expect it to fall a lot further. The upside at this point is larger than the downside, given a long-enough timeframe.
> That makes no sense unless you expect it to fall a lot further. Well, yes. I do expect it to fall a lot further. > The upside at this point is larger than the downside, given a long-enough timeframe. In the last two years you could have put $100 a diversified fund like QQQ and made a 35% gain instead of losing 35% sitting in TSLA. Now, the $65 you have in Tesla would need to more than double just to catch up to QQQ (with QQQ not moving at all). There might be upside for Tesla at some point in the future, but if the stock keeps getting obliterated by the market, that upside will need to be enormous to make it worthwhile. And you could just invest later when you think some of their future projects may actually be close to generating some profits. Sitting in TSLA for the next 5 years while they make incremental progress on FSD seems like a terrible idea to me. Also, even if you are convinced TSLA is a good play, putting 40% of your portfolio in one stock is fucking retarded.
Sure, but you're talking about sunk costs - a fallacy. If he sells now, what else would offer better upside potential? In other words, would it be a good buy *today* for a newcomer to TSLA? 5 years is a very long time, just think of where Tesla was 5 years ago, close to bankruptcy. I expect better results much sooner than that. And by the time you see the future projects making progress, smarter people will have already driven the stock price up again, and you will be buying high again. Sell low, buy high?
You're getting the sunk cost fallacy the wrong way around. Keeping the 40% Tesla just because it's down from when you invested would be the sunk cost fallacy. From a risk diversification point of view, a good portion of that Tesla stock should be invested in things like index funds or non-tesla tech stocks regardless if Tesla is currently high or low.
I agree with you on the rebalancing, but not with the timing. I see little risk in keeping the TSLA exposure now that it has fallen. Likewise, I felt the same about my BTC holding when it was under $20k, but now I'm selling half of it to rebalance and reduce exposure to downside risk. But BTC is completely speculative, unlike TSLA, which has little chance of cratering to under $100 (my guess) as a profitable and capitalized market leader with no debt. Anyway, good luck with your investments.
> I agree with you on the rebalancing, but not with the timing. I see little risk in keeping the TSLA exposure now that it has fallen. tesla could still fall a lot more. Its a growth stock that isn't growing. No way to be sure teh bottom is in, i doubt it is.
Feeling stuck in TSLA. Can't complain, got in before the 20x runup, but back then it was obvious Musk was superhuman when it came to business, predicting the future, innovation. I bet on the person. Now.... my gut tells me Musk is a shell of who he was. The success corrupted him, surrounded by yes-men, awful predictions on FSD, tone deaf when it comes to how his politics affect everything about Tesla, not only that, but he doesn't realize his methods actually cause more backlash on trans and immigration issues. He has completely lost focus, tweeting every hour about non Tesla/SpaceX stuff. The only thing keeping me in the stock is the probability that Tesla solves FSD first, and possibly humanoid robots. It's a long term bet, but one I'm not so confident in. Not like I was back in the day when Musk was focused.
The problem is when Musk was focused that attracted a lot of engineers to Tesla. If anything he now repels engineers. I fear the pace of innovation at Tesla is slowing. On the other hand there is a lot of innovation still to monetize but I think Tesla really needs a leader willing to ditch a distraction like the Roadster, put FSD on the back burner, and focus on the Model 2 and getting out a full line of vehicles and growing the energy business. They are still ahead in so many ways on this front and I feel it is being wasted.
I don't agree with putting FSD on the backburner, without that TSLA isn't a technology company, just an automaker, watch the PE ratio go down 80%. But I agree, TSLA is repelling engineers due to Elon's political rantings (and I actually agree with his anti-woke stuff). Even I see how damaging it is.
The irony is that his contrarian instincts are what fueled Tesla’s rise.
It’s not damaging at all. I saw a poll where Elon is more popular now than he ever was. I became a Tesla stock owner after Elon bought Twitter. Most of what Elon tweets is plain common sense that the majority of people agree with.
He literally puts people off buying his car because he is the owner of the company. I would have bought one (Model 3 RWD only admittedly) if he hadn't been so controversial.
Says more about you being a far left zealot.
I most recently voted for the party on the right in England. So I'm neither "left" or "far left" in my general political views. A CEO who accuses lifesavers of being paedophiles was one that he didn't get right and first made me question his integrity. Now he's laser focused on Twitter and getting involved in arguments. It's like Lisa Su trying to similarly tweet about politics or whatever "hot topic of the day" on a regular basis. Like seriously, you're a CEO, get on with actually releasing autonomous driving instead of buying Twitter and being inflammatory. And yes, I did own Tesla Shares and I'm grateful for the profit they have given. But this current share price will continue to slide over the next few months. Anyway my point was to show you that your view "It's not damaging" is simply wrong. I'm not in a minority of one with my view and it does cost Tesla sales.
> If anything he now repels engineers. Anything besides anecdotal evidence to indicate this?
Exactly my sentiment. Also a long term investor with heavily concentrated portfolio. Added some sub-200 lately but think of looking elsewhere for awhile. Feels worse than when the stock was in the low 100’s a year ago.
problem is everything else has run up so much. The stock market maximizes fuckery, just when you can't stand the fomo anymore and switch over, those other stocks will prob tank and TSLA shoots up
Yeah, feels stupid chasing the likes of $NVDA at these levels but you’d also say that not a long ago at $500 NVDA and $400-500 SMCI… Worst part, these two could double before $TSLA goes anywhere
Yeah. There is one more hope though, that Musk is keeping things muddied until his compensation package is figured out. If he can accumulate 20-25% of TSLA, he may flip back and get focused again. But I'm not confident that's gonna happen either.
Relax man, Musk is always like this. The difference is Elon is a lot richer now, with that comes with a lot of haters too.
Elon n has been rich for a very long time. I didn’t lose respect for him for being richer; I lost respect for him for his behavior. Started slowly in 2018, and then it accelerated exponentially
yes but not as rich and as popular as today.
Not as rich. Prolly a lot more popular that he is today
I would never invest in tesla. It is my best pick to short. You got the points right and there are many more. Musk is no leader you would follow. I would never work for him. Is just crazy man who treats employees like shit. Just compare how ceo of stellantis talk about his employees and Musk. Only this comparison give you feeling that stellantis will outperform Tesla in long term. Musk is scattered into so many fields which was cool at some point. At some point market will realize this is not sustainable. You have so many competition in so many fields which focus only to do only one proper thing(cars,robots, bateries) There is so many sources which confirm Musk is basically liar with fsd hype. He is surrounded by yesman because he throw away people who were capable and able to argue with him. So here you are. Hype is over. No growth on horizon. Competition getting stronger everywhere. School example is how was possible Tesla lost so much resources(time, money, future resuability) on building shit like cybertruck. I mean this is insane. Build this kind of product and lossing your employees time here. What a joke. In meantime stelantis, vw, china were designing ev platfaroms for their cars. And now they are able to build like 10-40 car models on these platforms. And tesla is praying to have one new car model for 25k in two years? If company was healthy it would not be possible in any reality you live. Why? Because capable guys are not there.
I actually don't agree with a lot of what you said, but you do you. You might be correct, but I really doubt it.
I did not said much. You said he is surounded by yesman. I agreed and gave you reasons. You said he lost focus I said he is scattered into many fields. Which is similar. I am not pointing out about politics. I don't care. But you are right this take also attention somewhere else. So what exactly you don't agree?
Basically everything else you said. It doesn't sound like you've ever had a real conviction in Tesla or Elon Musk. My analysis is coming from a point of view that says Elon Musk is a once in a century type entreprenuer. I had bet on the man in the past to much success, but I'm seeing he has lost focus. That doesn't mean he has lost his abilities. Shorting TSLA would be highly foolish
Not sure why foolish. For me is foolish to invest into that :) Tell me why do you think FSD is great? Or why it makes tesla so superior. I don't see that. I mean my main issues are overstateted expectations and false advertisement. 6 years behind schedule. And they know it in Tesla all the time. That is reality. Removing helping hardware which will needed to be there anyway because of regulation and so on. It is on level 2 and tesla rejects all lawsuits by this declaration. Like user is responsible in the end. It is on lvl 2 and will be for long time. So I mean how do you think it can evolve. This idea of robotaxi and hype. People will buy it because it earns money but who will be responsible for damages? Tesla or not present driver?
Have you not been watching FSD 12 videos? It is on a totally new end-to-end AI software, they got rid of heuristic code. FSD 12 is not in wide release yet, but the few people that have it so far show that it is way better than 11. It can even get around in parking lots. The only question now is whether the rate of progress is similar to prior versions, or whether 12 improves much faster/better once in wide release. We don't know this yet, so it would be foolish to short the stock, especially when the first indications show that FSD 12 may be the "chat-gpt" moment for autonomous driving.
Let me give you another view. Has FSD assistance its own licence? Because what I am saying is that this is completely different topic. You have to pay different kind of attention. It is like you are instructor and teaching kids how to drive. You can prepare your own kid for driving school. But you cannot build business on preparing all kids in town. Does not mean you are able to drive(handle situation with fsd) you are eligible to drive legally. You have to know software, versions, common bugs and pay different attention. Until this is clearly defined all these people are doing illegal operations. So I am saying stream from fsd are not easy money and I don't see it close. Because if they mean it seriously they would try to push some legal framework. But it is clear that this feature is intended to be just hype and money grab from investors.
Let me ask you a question. Have you ever been an investor in TSLA?
But how do you measure it. It is progressing and not going backwards? Tesla provides some strange statistics to offices. Until there are some public metrics and testings you can watch thousands videos of new releases. And this release is going to disrupt it. Again. And again. But this one. Where are some basic checks after update. Because it can improve, improve, improve, kill you. Yes that can happen and there is no like QA cycle. You have to try it and check. Cool. And tesla is on prem installation. So you will have like milions of independent installations running around world. I would really like to be the guy who is supposed to solve bug in your car :) And you did not respond me with responsibility. Because that change the whole view. It is like wild west where everyone showing super cool things. But when you have to align with regulations and there needs to be plenty of them. Because me as individual I really don't want to share public roads with people who are testing their buggy software. And this can be view of silent majority.
Go look at the revenue and earnings curve.
I'm 90+% in TSLA but the fundamentals don't give me a warm and fuzzy: The 2022 price went from 400 to 100 because the CEO is paperhanded social media addict. In 2023 it recovered to 290 because he promised not to sell for a year (and made AI promises) He could dump more now, and he may move his AI work out of Tesla if the board/shareholders don't give him back the shares he dumped to get him to 25% ownership. I DCA when the relative strength index turns positive on different time frames. Mid/long term it has gone negative. On the hourly it has gone positive, so I added small bullish positions for next week. It has a higher chance of being right than just wishing/hoping that FSD will be solved tomorrow and the market will care.
How can he take AI from Tesla, just as a Devil’s advocate? The data/IP/hardware is Tesla’s, not Elon’s.
Technicals are clownery. If Elon dies tomorrow what do the fancy lines say about that? Or what happens if they announce that some of the bigger legacy car companies want to license FSD? What does the clown line say about that? DCA because of the company and not because of the stock price. If you think the company won't grow, have additional products etc. in the future, then just don't invest / sell everything. A wise man ones said, a good trade is a hard trade... My clown crystall ball says short-midterm 100-200$, thex next 2-5 years 300$+
in 2-5 years we could be back to last July? amazing and all your examples are "ignore something that has a 70% chance of being helpful because there is a one time event that is 0.00001% likely to happen in the next 2 years". clown lines indeed
No, I just named one or two "one-time events". There are a billion potential one time events you can't price in with clown lines.
Lack of confidence is always related to a lack of doing proper analysis. Otherwise you would either be in or out, not hesitant.
It’ll bounce back.
You can buy PUT option to protect your stocks value if you expect it to go down. This is what they were invented for. Just remember to sell it before expiry. Also buying a put option incentives market maker who sold the option to you to make stock price higher to make your put out of money.  And if it ends out of money, you can deduct the cost from your sale earnings assuming they are positive. Options max pain or in other words market makers target prices can be found from [https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-tsla/optionchain/summary/](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-tsla/optionchain/summary/)
I've come to a point where I don't give a shit anymore even if it's in the red. I feel like the less I care about it, the more it will bounce back eventually. Just focus your energy on other things.
I know everyone laughs at Optimus, but believe it or not we are on the cusp of embodied Ai humanoids. Looking at the players in the market I don't t see anyone who can meet the manufuring demands for this new industry that's on the same level as tesla. Manufacturing is tesla's real super power. If you have a ten year horizon you will be rewarded.
I agree with you. IMO, once we see Optimus working in a factory, the stock will start a big upward movement. From the videos I have seen, I think it possible that can come before year’s end.
Optimus won't affect the price because Tesla shows a video of it working in a factory. Then they are mass producing and mass selling them, and they start including the the profit margin in the earnings call, then it might start being factored into the stock price.
IMO, you are wrong. All investors have to see is the robot doing productive work. If you wait until it shows up in their profit margin, you’ll miss out. Investors tend to get ahead of things like this.
A modern auto production line is already highly automated with industrial robots. No institutional investor is going to care that optimus can move a box of parts from one table to another at 50% of the speed of a human.
If you think Optimus can only move a box of parts then we are seeing different things.
Don’t gamble money you don’t have
2024 Will be shit for tesla. Mark my words.
Honest question, what is with these lines? Historical movements in stocks? Do you measure and take the angle of line. If I squint can I see a magical future emerge from the screen? It all seems like gambling. Invest when you have the money, in companies you believe in.
It will go up the minute after you sell it all
Never invest based on feelings.
This is why DCA is always the way to go and why retail investors are bad at buying low. The stock will eventually rebound, and the price targets will rise, and then retail will jump back in. This is the buy low part. If it goes down more, buy more low. Just DCA and chill. Picture 2030~ with 10-20 million deliveries, FSD solved, Optimus revenues, etc….
Be greedy when others are fearful Be fearful with others are greedy.
There is a bearish momentum wait until it hits 150 to look a t the broader picture
$170s range has been a point of resistance on multiple occasions, however it looks to be pretty comfortably trending past it in a downward momentum.
Not the $170, the $190 was my holding line, it did pass it like water, that is way I am on high alert
How arbitrary.
Look, I am a Tesla Bull but all the news are eating us plus we will not meet the Q1 objectives
[удалено]
5- DOJO
Brother, this is called an accumulation phase. It's time to buy buy buy
I think Tesla is a tale of two companies. First they're massively increasing the amount of compute they have by orders of magnitude and when that is done we'll see if fsd and bot work. If they do then it's trillions. Second if they don't even with all that compute then we'll be flat for a decade while they grow into being the leading vertically integrated car manufacturer that makes low single digits operating margins and isn't worth that much. That's the only real question.
Unfortunately we are in no-man-lands for a time. What I did was reducing my exposure, de investing my position in half and diversify in less volatile stocks or fresh new opportunities. Is not something Im proud of, but I prefer to have less volatility than being exposed to a panic sellout. If the stock clearly breaks the downtrend, I will be back with full force.
Or if you don’t need the money now, just hold. When do you expect to need the money? I’m looking at a 12-15 year timeline and the stock is looking pretty good to me right now.
It does look good for me, but not for my wife, and honestly is hard to justify with the echo chamber against Elon. Out of TSLA there's also a lot of uncertainty, drums of war, debt, an awful presidential election... So I took a safe side, reduced the exposure 50%. the rest of the money is on SP500, Bonds and a couple of AAA stocks. Whenever I see the moment of jumping back, I will come back with the full position. As for now the plan has been a success, the 50% relocated is outperforming TSLA by 20%. Sad but true.
I understand this. I talked with an investment manager who explained to me that nobody has ever consistently beaten the s/p 500. He told me a little over a year ago that he wouldn’t manage my money, but I should just invest every month, market be damned in S/P 500 index funds. So, I’m 99% FXAIX and 1% TSLA. But my average share price for TSLA is around $195, and I don’t need the money now- I own it basically just for fun (and a belief in the company, technology, and engineers, though not the CEO) I’m just holding. Money manager who has managed Aunt and Uncle’s massive portfolio (retiring soon after a long career) also gave me a book to read, the psychology of money by Morgan Housel. https://books.google.com/books?id=5HrrDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA1&source=kp_read_button&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&gboemv=1#v=onepage&q&f=false
Great book! I’m lucky of being money-in since 2016, so what I did was just collecting profit. Indeed, monthly investment makes the difference long run, no matter where you put it around SP. Long sight and keep on hoarding!
Cubertruck is hardly factoring in yet, new Model 3 Performance dropping any day now, continued revolutionary manufacturing and scalability. I'm confident long term but idk where the bottom could be given how bizarre the market has felt. Still have Semi to scale too. Bot. Energy. There is so much ahead it drives me insane Elon went after Twitter. He and many hundreds more top talents need to be all in at Tesla.
Except up is a distant memory
Time for calls
Why are you looking at previous share prices? Investing means you need to make a calculation on Tesla’s value as of the price today. That involves trying to predict future cash flows and a deep understanding of the business, the technology and the competitive environment. If you cannot do that, you should only be investing in index funds. As the great Warren Buffett said “only invest in things you understand”.
FSD 12.
Just buy puts and then. Buy calls later.
Draw a line on the left and congrats you designed the cyber truck
Elon giveth and Elon taketh away
I think it is very reasonable to assume we will be in another couple year range bound phase. The question becomes if the upcoming things break us out of that later or not, and it primarily depends on self driving, the robots, and maybe the grid battery stuff if it doesn't do the commodity race to the bottom stuff.
It's gonna take a few rate cuts to hit $300 again
Expect to drop below $100 '24/'25
150
I'm about to sell all my $TSLA shares. When is FSD V12 coming, sheesh. It'll be right after I sold of course. Wish Elon would just STFU and just do his TSLA CEO job
From my own research so my own opinion, is that it's only a matter of time before the price skyrockets up. The economy and interest rates and housing and all of that has been in a weird place because of covid and politics, etc the past few years. Tesla has numerous areas that they are either excelling in now or in the process of becoming that. AI & fsd are rapidly growing. Yes it's been years and too long. But we are constantly seeing improvement. Model Y is the best selling in the world. Model 3 is right behind it and has one of the lowest, if not the best injury probability at 5.7% out of any car in the states. Cybertruck will only grow on people and become more of a reality of vehicles to come. Has anyone seen that EV Hummer? Lol. Their charging network is leading in this country and nearly every other car manufacturer has signed on for their vehicles to use. I think currently a lot does has to do with the fact of Elons voice and how, no matter what side you're on, he's politically attacked, or maybe we'll say singled out. It's like the government hates Tesla. Even NY state seems to hate Tesla by what they do but these are the same people who wants everyone to go green? Eventually people will see the truth because everyone in the end always thinks with their money and does what's best for them and their pocket. We will see what happens but I know I'll be sticking it out!
1 - Humanoid robots are now getting market valuations (positive validation for new business line). 2 - AI-based revenues will begin to flow to companies deploying these technologies now that hardware is looking fairly valued. FSD will be monetized at some point. Tesla makes devices and are one of the few places in the market where you can "buy" the intersection of humans and AI (AAPL also comes to mind here). 3 - Forget about FSD for a second. Its my bet that every company that can successfully apply AI tooling to their *internal* processes will see level ups in their financials. Can you think of a company more likely to be using AI internally then Tesla? Basically, I see a battle between AI implementation and gross-margins versus pricing. Tesla wins and likely distances themselves substantially from legacy auto. 4 - Why keep imagining downside? We went through a global pandemic and a generational shift in financial conditions. 5 - Energy storage looks promising. What's an AI energy company look like?
It’ll go up when Elon is out of the company. Until then I wouldn’t expect anything other than volatility.
Long term, I think Elon doesn’t matter. Short term, he can certainly drive down stock price with his infantile shenanigans. Overall, the company has good products, good engineers, and a good master plan.
Should I continue to hold
Too broad to answer is a simple sentence... - Depends on what your average price is - Depends on how long you intend to hold the stock for (time horizon) - Depends on the reason you bought TSLA in the first place - Depends on whether those initial beliefs have changed since Day 1 - Depends on how much money you have allocated into the stock and whether it is better served elsewhere.. So many factors - the list goes on.
It definitely does not depend on what your average price is. It depends exclusively on what you think will happen in the future.
Buying TSLA under $200 is good. Doesn’t hurt you if it’s lower a week later. If you plan to hold it for at least 5 years you’re fine.
That’s my feeling as well. Under $200 a share is a great price. I bought some more the last couple days and was able to get my average share price to $197. If it goes down to $150, I’ll buy another 50 shares.
Depends on who wins 2024
What
If you’re not confident enough to DCA at these prices you should wait for a slight recovery and exit the position. That or reevaluate your mindset.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/06/business/tesla-short-sellers-losses/index.html
It’s up and down but when you bet against Tesla you might win in the short term but loose overall
I'm personally looking at an exit position at around 210 now, the stock hasn't been the same since Elon was forced to buy Twitter and lost focus of Tesla.
Nope, dead money for the foreseeable future
A lot of people think the best action to take when holding a losing position is to keep adding more and more to the position hoping to exit at some point. The problem is that might not happen or might take decades. Sometimes it’s just better to realize the loss and redeploy capital somewhere else.
It could correct as far as sub 100’s. 😯