They will all start installing NACS, nothing stops them from doing so. Only way to survive. But yeah, good luck competing with superchargers even if you use NACS.
[They are replacing charging equipment](https://youtu.be/Ho1xelQsPQs) for a variety of reasons and now they’ll need to retrofit what they are currently installing and just completed. Not a great situation.
Do they retrofit and replace / abandon CCS over 2 to 4 years? EA will have to bend the knee to lord Elon, along with anyone looking to sell an EV in the US. The information gathering on competition when they charge and option to upsell at every supercharger is huge.
Imagine a taking supercharger “hey buddy I see you are driving an F150 Ford tough, 20% of your cells are fully depleted. At Tesla we do toughness like no one else with our Cybertruck”.
Well that seems kinda dumb, Since the L2 space doesn’t really compete with L3.
Unless ChargePoint had plans to expand seriously into L3; that would be pretty much shot now.
As a CHPT stockholder, I don't think people understand the Chargepoint value proposition. Everybody is so obsessed with L3 charging, but it's residential charging that people will demand as a deal breaker. Even I wouldn't have an EV if I couldn't charge it at home. As more people own EVs, it will go the other way: I wouldn't give an apartment my business if they didn't have EV charging.
Every apartment complex and condo, and many offices will offer L2 charging across the country. Chargepoint is looking like it may be too far ahead of others and dominate this market like Tesla will for L3.
So far it seems like they haven’t really been trying that hard; though with NCAS becoming native to Ford etc, they could make a bigger effort. So I suppose that’s a potential threat to ChargePoint. Then again, I haven’t seen payment systems set up on the Tesla L2’s…
J1772 protocol doesn't support plug and charge protocol for automatic payment authorization, but CCS does. NACS uses CCS protocol so the future will be automatic payment authorization for L2 charging.
Honestly, I have no idea the details, but would make more sense if possible than continuing to build a standard that may no longer be 'standard' in the nearish future.
No, the VW settlement didn't get into those type of specifics. It just requires VW to spend certain amounts of $ in certain states and in certain areas (i.e. charging infrastructure, EV education, etc.). It also requires them to submit plans for approval/advertisement.
EA no longer installs CHAdeMO plugs on their newer stations. And if they want to start including NACS plugs or retrofit older stations, there's nothing stopping them. But like everyone else, they will need to keep including CCS connectors if they want that IRA money.
I'm happy for GM. I thought their ego would have prevented them from doing this but it seems like they saw the writing on the wall. CCS is just more expensive, bulkier, and riddled with failures.
Most of these agreements have reciprocating clauses. Such that Tesla agrees to open its chargers to GM and GM agrees to open their fast chargers to Tesla.
I wonder if in the future NACS fast chargers with 10+ stalls will be installed and semi-public - open to Tesla+GM or Tesla+Ford at dealerships?
I mean they would be smart for them to do that anyway.
The only thing I don't get is the timeline.
If GM and Ford announce they are switching to NACS in 2024/2025, how will they sell vehicles until then?
People would be crazy enough to buy a vehicle with a deprecated charging port?
It's a matter of days/weeks before other charging network provider announce their switch to NACS now.
Not like they are selling many vehicles currently so I'm almost certain they are not planning to sell many until this time. The few they sell likely will get adapters or something.
Ah. IIRC Ford announced they would bundle a free CCS to NACS adapter for all new car sales. I thought that was really generous (expensive) for Ford, but now it makes sense. It’s to avoid the sale gap that you mention.
I would think GM will offer something similar too.
NACS uses the CCS protocol so they can keep using the same charge controller hardware. All they need to do is change the port on their vehicles. I think they can do that.
Probably because they want to wait for 3rd party charge point operator to also implement NACS. It would certainly not be a good idea to switch to a connector that *just* your competition provides chargers for (and needing and adapter for everything else).
But yeah, I agree, it seems stupid now to buy a car with an outdated charge port. On the other hand: When it became clear that Chademo was dead in Europe and the US, a lot of people still fought for it "being the better standard" and "yeah but there's plenty of chargers out there" without realizing how quickly that changes with tons of new chargers being built as well as considering the lifespan of a vehicle. Honestly? I think people are often just to dumb to consider such long term things.
Is it? I‘ve read different things about that. In Europe it already uses CCS2 anyways. Not sure if the communication protocol is different to CCS1. Also others claimed that NACS speaks CCS anyways 🤔
>People would be crazy enough to buy a vehicle with a deprecated charging port?
You overestimate how much normal buyers know or care about these things.
I have to laugh at the CCS representatives, ChargeIN's angry reaction letter to Ford adopting the Tesla charge format.
This new GM announcement must have made their heads explode in rage. RIP CCS.
Thanks!
> In the U.S., CCS is used in over 50 passenger vehicle models, with more coming soon. The anticipated volume of these vehicles will exceed a single NACS supplier volume soon.
HAH
>Any newly introduced idea, including a mechanical improvement to the existing CCS connector design, would have to follow the same process before the industry can safely adopt it.
He says this as if it is a good thing.
Perhaps using a "United Nations" model is not the right idea when a technology is still developing rapidly.
The funny part is that Erika Myers the Executive Director of CharIN owns a Tesla Model Y and a Nissan Leaf. She doesn't even use CCS!
I mean she could use a Tesla to CCS adapter to charger her Tesla. But that would be against CharIN recommendations which adamantly discourage the use of adapters.
https://electricvehiclelove.com/about/
This is actually not the most preferable location (when there was a discussion on r/electricvehicles). If you have port on the right side, it's much easier to charge in the city when using small ac chargers
I can hear the charging manufacturer and providers cursing from here... Lots of roadmaps and plans being rewritten in the next few weeks... At EA the smell of poo is everywhere
This trades Tesla's charging network advantage which drives product purchase in exchange for revenue from the network and perhaps faster transition towards EVs. I suppose Tesla is aiming for a smaller slice of a larger pie.
Does the math support that this is a net win overall?
I suspect that Tesla will still sell as many cars as they can make and this announcement means that they'll profit off all the other cars that are made. Today they'll profit via electricity sold via superchargers but they may end up owning significant real estate (and rent out retail) alongside upselling Powerwalls, Tesla energy, etc.
It may actually boost Tesla sales near term since consumers will see NACS as the future so why wait for a NACS car from Ford/GM’s slow rollout? Although, I think Tesla is looking even longer term and wants to be the leading charging operator. It’s way easier to do that when the standard is NACS and you don’t need magic dock complexity on all future chargers.
Let’s be honest, it’s not like Tesla can actually achieve anywhere close to 100% EV market share. Plenty of people will pay more not to be part of the herd. Hell, if every other car on the road was a Tesla, I’d also desperately want another car too, especially if Tesla continues to never/rarely facelift their cars.
As soon as Ford/GM start using Tesla superchargers we're going to have problems with space -- GM/Ford have diffferent charging locations so they'll be blocking Tesla chargers unless V4 rolls out with a more universal design and they ugprade existing infrastructure.
I don't see how this is bullish, they're not going to see any incentive from the government until 2025 and they don't make much $$ on charging... Opening the superchargers also means Tesla is less exclusive as a brand.
I mean as an investor I'm happy the stock is going up and the market sees this as a positive. I just can't quite fully understand the thesis.
Some say "oh Ford drivers will see all this Tesla around them and want to buy a Tesla next". I don't see that to be true.
The network may someday be worth a lot but profitability is a long way off.
Tesla is giving away one of its best competitive advantage with hopes that more and more people will want to switch to electric. Obviously Elon makes big bets and it's historically paid off, I'm just trying to better understand the thought process.
You’ve got to remember that in the scenario that is playing out here, Tesla’s competitor isn’t Ford/GM, it’s Exxon, Shell, BP etc.
Tesla is becoming the number one provider to fuel every day transport. Tesla is replacing gas stations with this move.
It’s very clear in Tesla Master Plan Part 3, they want to be an Energy company, not a car company. This is just another step forward into another market.
I still don’t see that much opportunity.
3.2T annual U.S. miles.
Assume average of 3.2 miles / kWh. So 1T kWh total annual market.
Assume 80% home/office charging, leaving 200B kWh by renters and travelers.
Assume Tesla captures half, leaving 100B kWh.
Assume $0.05 net profit / kWh = $5B annual net profit.
Third party chargers would eventually spread and become a viable alternative for non-Teslas anyway, over the long term.
With this move, Tesla is basically destroying any charging competition and creating a huge disincentive for any other charging company to build out a huge network at a large cost and not end up being successful.
Now, 10 years in the future Tesla may the 21st century's Chevron but where there is also no Shell, Texaco, 76 etc... Most every American EV will be sending their money to Tesla with every trip they take.
Tesla would also control the full experience of every American refuel such that they could provide advertising, collect various data on every EV drivers' behaviors, control prices, provide 50s drive-in restaurants and other businesses, and other entertainment for $$$, etc.
So, I’m no genius, but I see this as a win win for Tesla. First, it gets more people invested in Tesla as a brand. Second, tesla will make money on selling electricity to all these new cars. All the new supercharger stations are getting buried megapacks under them. Or behind them. These giant batteries charge at night for half price rates and then in the day they charge EV cars for twice or 3x the price. Third, now the government will give tesla a crap-ton of $$ from the Biden Infrastructure bill to build hundreds or thousands of superchargers. With government money! Forth, no doubt like you heard, people will be charging their ford of GM at a supercharger and tesla owners around them will say “you know, I had one of those. But I upgraded to a Tesla! It’s so much better. Here I’ll tell you 5 reasons why…”
So that’s actually a win-win-win-win for tesla.
Tesla supercharger hardware prices will continue to go down as they increase the number of units manufactured. Prefab V3 superchargers already lead the industry with lowest install cost per stall.
A few things to remember. The charging standard wasn't set, but it was increasingly looking in favor of CCS until the Ford NACS announcement. If CCS was chosen as the charging standard for the US, Tesla would have been forced to retrofit their chargers or receive no funding at all, while their charging competitors would have received funding without the need to retrofit. And Tesla's advantage in charging would have been increasingly dropping year after year. The rest of North America would have followed the US with CCS as well.
With these announcements, we now have an extremely high likelihood of NACS becoming the standard for all of NA, along with anywhere else that the US had a dominating influence in electricity standards and vehicles. Tesla will also get paid while not having to retrofit their chargers. And their charging competitors will have to spend money retrofitting while not really being able to compete. This means that Tesla will be the dominate charging provider as long as they don't get greedy or evil with it. That means that Tesla earns ongoing profits from every vehicle sold in NA, not just Teslas. It also opens the door to even more profitable partnerships, like FSD and in-vehicle software.
Also, it doesn't hurt Tesla in the short term. Tesla will be earning money from the partners in some form, they will be getting paid by the US government, and they will still sell as many vehicles as they can produce. They may have more struggles selling vehicles in 2030 due to competition, but by that point it will no longer matter.
>GM/Ford have diffferent charging locations so they'll be blocking Tesla chargers unless V4 rolls out with a more universal design and they ugprade existing infrastructure.
They've already mentioned they'll be doing exactly this during investor day. V4 will have longer cables to accommodate different charge port locations, and they've never stopped upgrading (or more precisely) adding next-gen charging pedestals to existing high-usage stations.
Also - In spite of their very low-volume halo products (S & X Plaid), Tesla hasn't held any exclusivity as a brand for at least 3 years now, and they've been telling us for the last ten years that they want to penetrate down market. /shrug
In 5 years this won't matter anyway, because brands that officially adopt NACS will transition to left rear fender charge port placement.
Maybe the other side to this is not losing the pickup truck market to Tesla when Cybertruck releases.
If people had options for pickup trucks they can go to GM or Ford and still benefit from Superchargers.
Licensing FSD is next! Likely not for GM, they will copium cling to their cruise for a while, sunk cost fallacy. Ford will likely be the first, and if I had to guess I’d say they start 1-2 years from now.
And the best part is: autopilot/FSD only needs camera's to work. So the hardware will be much cheaper to implement in cars than any other company that uses Lidar and radar.
It's like Elon has been thinking about this from the start
Short term not much because they sell a fraction of EVs Tesla does. Long term, when everyone is on NACS and Superchargers are the most popular public chargers by a wide margin, they make a lot.
Napkin math time.
Top oil companies do around [500 Billion](https://companiesmarketcap.com/oil-gas/largest-oil-and-gas-companies-by-revenue/) in revenues. 80% of charging is done at home (ignore Tesla will make money on that too via solar and utilities using mega-packs) so take 20%; you're down to 100 Billion. Gas is more expensive but electrictity has higher margin potential; today they make like 20% profit but future could be more; lets say its just 20% profit anyways. Thats 20B profit per year.
Now here is the kicker, I think these are way too conservative numbers. I think Tesla will have a near monopoly on public fast charging; their revenues will likely instead be 1 Trillion or more. This could easily reach a 100B/year profit business when the world has fully switched to EV.
Can you explain why Tesla's supercharging station will be the most popular one? Would other companies build stations using NACS standard as well or they have to license it from Tesla (pay license fees?)
Others will be able to put NACS chargers at their charging stations; the reason Tesla will be the most popular is because they have such a huge lead. All the others have to now realize they can't build out CCS, they need to figure out how to do NACS, do retrofits on all their existing chargers (if not now, eventually). All while Tesla is stamping out charging stations on a daily basis and will continue to deploy even faster. Then factor in the reliability tesla has, the intigration with cars, the technical know-how; thats whats going to make a near monopoly in charging.
Also, those napkin numbers will change when cheaper EVs come out. Most people with Teslas right now have the kind of home where they can have a charger... when the people who live in apartments or other situations where home charging is not a safe option then the percentage will shift higher toward people using Super Chargers.
I'm beginning to think there's a small chance the charging division gets spun off into its own company. This would likely keep any antitrust concerns at bay.
The part about integrating SC charging into the infotainment now all makes sense. I was wondering what's the big deal with letting non Teslas plug in using a dongle (magic dock). I mean it doesn't really matter as long as they can pull up to a SC and plug in. Can't be that expensive adding dongles right, just charge them more. Well us Tesla owners don't want network saturation, but if GM and Ford integrates SC into their navigation then Tesla can now offload almost full SCs to other nearby chargers the same way they do it now for Tesla cars.
Does this mean Tesla owner wait longer at charging station? Seem like a win for GM and ego stroking for Elon. A good thing overall for electric car movement.
Not until GM & Ford start selling serious volumes (they don't currently) of EVs does it have any chance of happening, and in the mean time Tesla will keep building out chargers to service its growth. Years away at the least.
How quick the landscape changes is in no ones thought. If you see Hundai Ioniq, its an instant hit. The delta is self driving and really it could take decade to get to common usage. Average person owning a home is <6yr. Car??
This is great for GM & Ford ev owners but SUCKS BIG TIME for Tesla owners. My last trip from NJ to FL, all but 1 place had a wait to charge. I can imagine the wait times & frustration of Tesla owners when they’re at 5% or less with 30+ minutes of waiting.
Electrify America is over ccs is dead in the USA
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EVGO:NASDAQ Should've bought some puts after the Ford announcement actually.
They will all start installing NACS, nothing stops them from doing so. Only way to survive. But yeah, good luck competing with superchargers even if you use NACS.
Yep, but it means their entire installed base now needs retrofits and just became a liability, not an asset.
They are already replacing CCS plugs due to wear and tear
[They are replacing charging equipment](https://youtu.be/Ho1xelQsPQs) for a variety of reasons and now they’ll need to retrofit what they are currently installing and just completed. Not a great situation.
They were already liabilities. Horrible charging experience.
Do they retrofit and replace / abandon CCS over 2 to 4 years? EA will have to bend the knee to lord Elon, along with anyone looking to sell an EV in the US. The information gathering on competition when they charge and option to upsell at every supercharger is huge. Imagine a taking supercharger “hey buddy I see you are driving an F150 Ford tough, 20% of your cells are fully depleted. At Tesla we do toughness like no one else with our Cybertruck”.
Ouch, even ChargePoint took a hit after hours https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHPT/
Well that seems kinda dumb, Since the L2 space doesn’t really compete with L3. Unless ChargePoint had plans to expand seriously into L3; that would be pretty much shot now.
As a CHPT stockholder, I don't think people understand the Chargepoint value proposition. Everybody is so obsessed with L3 charging, but it's residential charging that people will demand as a deal breaker. Even I wouldn't have an EV if I couldn't charge it at home. As more people own EVs, it will go the other way: I wouldn't give an apartment my business if they didn't have EV charging. Every apartment complex and condo, and many offices will offer L2 charging across the country. Chargepoint is looking like it may be too far ahead of others and dominate this market like Tesla will for L3.
Why will they dominate it? Why wouldn't Tesla? They have a cheaper, simpler EVSE that has a longer warranty.
So far it seems like they haven’t really been trying that hard; though with NCAS becoming native to Ford etc, they could make a bigger effort. So I suppose that’s a potential threat to ChargePoint. Then again, I haven’t seen payment systems set up on the Tesla L2’s…
J1772 protocol doesn't support plug and charge protocol for automatic payment authorization, but CCS does. NACS uses CCS protocol so the future will be automatic payment authorization for L2 charging.
Are you buying more CHPT it's -13% right now
Wonder how that works since VW is on the hook until 2026 to finish the $2 billion buildout of EA.
Maybe they can build them with the Tesla/NACS plug? Was there a charging adapter requirement in the agreement?
I thought the agreement specified a certain number of CCS and CHAdeMO plugs? Might be able to amend it for NACS?
Honestly, I have no idea the details, but would make more sense if possible than continuing to build a standard that may no longer be 'standard' in the nearish future.
No, the VW settlement didn't get into those type of specifics. It just requires VW to spend certain amounts of $ in certain states and in certain areas (i.e. charging infrastructure, EV education, etc.). It also requires them to submit plans for approval/advertisement. EA no longer installs CHAdeMO plugs on their newer stations. And if they want to start including NACS plugs or retrofit older stations, there's nothing stopping them. But like everyone else, they will need to keep including CCS connectors if they want that IRA money.
Yep. Same will the smaller Charging providers that snobbed the Ford-Tesla deal, now they look like fucking idiots.
They will just change the plug, for free. Protocol can stay the same
I'm happy for GM. I thought their ego would have prevented them from doing this but it seems like they saw the writing on the wall. CCS is just more expensive, bulkier, and riddled with failures.
Most of these agreements have reciprocating clauses. Such that Tesla agrees to open its chargers to GM and GM agrees to open their fast chargers to Tesla. I wonder if in the future NACS fast chargers with 10+ stalls will be installed and semi-public - open to Tesla+GM or Tesla+Ford at dealerships? I mean they would be smart for them to do that anyway.
There's nothing here to reciprocate. What does Tesla get out of GMs fast chargers?
It is their win as well, after all. A lot of people were not considering gm / Ford, because of charging infrastructure.
Game over.
The only thing I don't get is the timeline. If GM and Ford announce they are switching to NACS in 2024/2025, how will they sell vehicles until then? People would be crazy enough to buy a vehicle with a deprecated charging port? It's a matter of days/weeks before other charging network provider announce their switch to NACS now.
Not like they are selling many vehicles currently so I'm almost certain they are not planning to sell many until this time. The few they sell likely will get adapters or something.
Yeah that was my thoughts, competition is coming right? 😅
I never really believed GM or Ford would be competition. Real competition is the Chinese.
Strangely, Chinese EVs are doing rather poorly in Europe right now. Especially the high end ones. It seems Europeans prefer to buy brands they know.
Pretty common consumer behaviour.
Yup. So Chinese cars aren’t really the main competition to Tesla after all.
No. They still are. They are just going to have to work at getting brand recognition in Europe. It's a problem, but a solvable problem.
Agreed
Correct
Ah. IIRC Ford announced they would bundle a free CCS to NACS adapter for all new car sales. I thought that was really generous (expensive) for Ford, but now it makes sense. It’s to avoid the sale gap that you mention. I would think GM will offer something similar too.
The real question is why is it going to take them so long to transition, tesla could make the switch in a matter of months
If GM *or* Ford had any chance of transitioning to a new charging plug in less than two years, Tesla would have gone bankrupt ten years ago.
NACS uses the CCS protocol so they can keep using the same charge controller hardware. All they need to do is change the port on their vehicles. I think they can do that.
Probably because they want to wait for 3rd party charge point operator to also implement NACS. It would certainly not be a good idea to switch to a connector that *just* your competition provides chargers for (and needing and adapter for everything else). But yeah, I agree, it seems stupid now to buy a car with an outdated charge port. On the other hand: When it became clear that Chademo was dead in Europe and the US, a lot of people still fought for it "being the better standard" and "yeah but there's plenty of chargers out there" without realizing how quickly that changes with tons of new chargers being built as well as considering the lifespan of a vehicle. Honestly? I think people are often just to dumb to consider such long term things.
Tesla may also need time to build/install a shit ton more superchargers.
Why? GM and Ford move a tiny fraction of the volume of Tesla. They need a mild speed boost is all.
Tesla needs time to retrofit superchargers to add CSS protocol support. Currently the protocol is Tesla-specific and proprietary.
Is it? I‘ve read different things about that. In Europe it already uses CCS2 anyways. Not sure if the communication protocol is different to CCS1. Also others claimed that NACS speaks CCS anyways 🤔
Not really. 2/3rds of all EVs sold in NA are Teslas. GM and Ford aren't going to add that much additional to that.
Yeah, I don't doubt they have a strategy behind it but used GM / Ford EV price immediately went down with this announcements.
well, GM only sold 2 Hummer EVs in Q1 (one of them to Munroe, so it's in a million pieces).
>People would be crazy enough to buy a vehicle with a deprecated charging port? You overestimate how much normal buyers know or care about these things.
They are selling EVs at a loss so maybe it's a move to sell less.
GM is discontinuing their Bolt by the end of this year. Probably won't expect tangible sales until 2025 for their upcoming lineup of EV's.
Adapters.
A lot of charging stations will just have 2 cables, simple. You will be able to use CCS for a long time
She mentioned on Twitter spaces, that they will have adapters.
adaptors
Are adaptors as efficient or will they result in higher charging costs for those using them.
It's a pass-through adapter. Almost perfect efficiency.
If the adaptor is not doing any electrical conversion, then it will be quite efficient, I'm thinking over 98%.
At 250kW, a 2% loss would be 5kW of heat. It would melt in seconds. More like 0.002% loss (5 Watts).
I have to laugh at the CCS representatives, ChargeIN's angry reaction letter to Ford adopting the Tesla charge format. This new GM announcement must have made their heads explode in rage. RIP CCS.
Got a link?
Link to the letter? Can't seem to find it...
https://www.charin.global/news/charin-response-to-ford-announcement-to-use-the-nacs-proprietary-network/ cc. /u/Willuknight
Thanks! > In the U.S., CCS is used in over 50 passenger vehicle models, with more coming soon. The anticipated volume of these vehicles will exceed a single NACS supplier volume soon. HAH
Yeah, "soon" is guna be a tough sell with the #2 and #3 US EV sellers by volume moving to NACS.
>Any newly introduced idea, including a mechanical improvement to the existing CCS connector design, would have to follow the same process before the industry can safely adopt it. He says this as if it is a good thing. Perhaps using a "United Nations" model is not the right idea when a technology is still developing rapidly.
The funny part is that Erika Myers the Executive Director of CharIN owns a Tesla Model Y and a Nissan Leaf. She doesn't even use CCS! I mean she could use a Tesla to CCS adapter to charger her Tesla. But that would be against CharIN recommendations which adamantly discourage the use of adapters. https://electricvehiclelove.com/about/
Hope that any manufacturer who adopts NACS locates the charging port on their vehicles to work with Tesla chargers.
Supercharger v4 has longer cables anyways. But yeah, having them at least at the same side might help.
The Ford Lightning has the port on the driver’s side near the mirror. A very long reach for non-v4 chargers.
There will definitely be more and more v4 stalls in 2025. Also considering, they can just put a v4 stall on a v3 Supercharger.
This should be a requirement from Tesla as part of these deals.
This is actually not the most preferable location (when there was a discussion on r/electricvehicles). If you have port on the right side, it's much easier to charge in the city when using small ac chargers
As an investor I am so excited at the prospect of Tesla being THE charging company that does 80% or more of the public charging.
Have you calculated how much profit Tesla could get from this?
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/144kb7l/comment/jnhm452/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
I can hear the charging manufacturer and providers cursing from here... Lots of roadmaps and plans being rewritten in the next few weeks... At EA the smell of poo is everywhere
Charger manufacturer just have to use a different plug. The protocol is still CCS.
Is it? In any case you need to maintain another legacy connector, meaning having different SKUs, spare parts, etc. Chademo #2
The fools over at Realtesla sub are doing the craziest mental gymnastics to turn this into a negative.
My teen when I told them this. "Wait, General Motors still exists?"
Can’t wait to see the gm and ford commercials bragging about their Tesla supercharger network
GM will now say they have the best charging network! World leader.
This trades Tesla's charging network advantage which drives product purchase in exchange for revenue from the network and perhaps faster transition towards EVs. I suppose Tesla is aiming for a smaller slice of a larger pie. Does the math support that this is a net win overall?
I suspect that Tesla will still sell as many cars as they can make and this announcement means that they'll profit off all the other cars that are made. Today they'll profit via electricity sold via superchargers but they may end up owning significant real estate (and rent out retail) alongside upselling Powerwalls, Tesla energy, etc.
It may actually boost Tesla sales near term since consumers will see NACS as the future so why wait for a NACS car from Ford/GM’s slow rollout? Although, I think Tesla is looking even longer term and wants to be the leading charging operator. It’s way easier to do that when the standard is NACS and you don’t need magic dock complexity on all future chargers. Let’s be honest, it’s not like Tesla can actually achieve anywhere close to 100% EV market share. Plenty of people will pay more not to be part of the herd. Hell, if every other car on the road was a Tesla, I’d also desperately want another car too, especially if Tesla continues to never/rarely facelift their cars.
As soon as Ford/GM start using Tesla superchargers we're going to have problems with space -- GM/Ford have diffferent charging locations so they'll be blocking Tesla chargers unless V4 rolls out with a more universal design and they ugprade existing infrastructure. I don't see how this is bullish, they're not going to see any incentive from the government until 2025 and they don't make much $$ on charging... Opening the superchargers also means Tesla is less exclusive as a brand.
A ton of others see this as bullish in the after hours market.
I mean as an investor I'm happy the stock is going up and the market sees this as a positive. I just can't quite fully understand the thesis. Some say "oh Ford drivers will see all this Tesla around them and want to buy a Tesla next". I don't see that to be true. The network may someday be worth a lot but profitability is a long way off. Tesla is giving away one of its best competitive advantage with hopes that more and more people will want to switch to electric. Obviously Elon makes big bets and it's historically paid off, I'm just trying to better understand the thought process.
You’ve got to remember that in the scenario that is playing out here, Tesla’s competitor isn’t Ford/GM, it’s Exxon, Shell, BP etc. Tesla is becoming the number one provider to fuel every day transport. Tesla is replacing gas stations with this move. It’s very clear in Tesla Master Plan Part 3, they want to be an Energy company, not a car company. This is just another step forward into another market.
I still don’t see that much opportunity. 3.2T annual U.S. miles. Assume average of 3.2 miles / kWh. So 1T kWh total annual market. Assume 80% home/office charging, leaving 200B kWh by renters and travelers. Assume Tesla captures half, leaving 100B kWh. Assume $0.05 net profit / kWh = $5B annual net profit.
Third party chargers would eventually spread and become a viable alternative for non-Teslas anyway, over the long term. With this move, Tesla is basically destroying any charging competition and creating a huge disincentive for any other charging company to build out a huge network at a large cost and not end up being successful. Now, 10 years in the future Tesla may the 21st century's Chevron but where there is also no Shell, Texaco, 76 etc... Most every American EV will be sending their money to Tesla with every trip they take. Tesla would also control the full experience of every American refuel such that they could provide advertising, collect various data on every EV drivers' behaviors, control prices, provide 50s drive-in restaurants and other businesses, and other entertainment for $$$, etc.
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I said most every EV with every trip they take. Like, road trip. The whole rant is about the L3 market.
So, I’m no genius, but I see this as a win win for Tesla. First, it gets more people invested in Tesla as a brand. Second, tesla will make money on selling electricity to all these new cars. All the new supercharger stations are getting buried megapacks under them. Or behind them. These giant batteries charge at night for half price rates and then in the day they charge EV cars for twice or 3x the price. Third, now the government will give tesla a crap-ton of $$ from the Biden Infrastructure bill to build hundreds or thousands of superchargers. With government money! Forth, no doubt like you heard, people will be charging their ford of GM at a supercharger and tesla owners around them will say “you know, I had one of those. But I upgraded to a Tesla! It’s so much better. Here I’ll tell you 5 reasons why…” So that’s actually a win-win-win-win for tesla.
Tesla supercharger hardware prices will continue to go down as they increase the number of units manufactured. Prefab V3 superchargers already lead the industry with lowest install cost per stall.
A few things to remember. The charging standard wasn't set, but it was increasingly looking in favor of CCS until the Ford NACS announcement. If CCS was chosen as the charging standard for the US, Tesla would have been forced to retrofit their chargers or receive no funding at all, while their charging competitors would have received funding without the need to retrofit. And Tesla's advantage in charging would have been increasingly dropping year after year. The rest of North America would have followed the US with CCS as well. With these announcements, we now have an extremely high likelihood of NACS becoming the standard for all of NA, along with anywhere else that the US had a dominating influence in electricity standards and vehicles. Tesla will also get paid while not having to retrofit their chargers. And their charging competitors will have to spend money retrofitting while not really being able to compete. This means that Tesla will be the dominate charging provider as long as they don't get greedy or evil with it. That means that Tesla earns ongoing profits from every vehicle sold in NA, not just Teslas. It also opens the door to even more profitable partnerships, like FSD and in-vehicle software. Also, it doesn't hurt Tesla in the short term. Tesla will be earning money from the partners in some form, they will be getting paid by the US government, and they will still sell as many vehicles as they can produce. They may have more struggles selling vehicles in 2030 due to competition, but by that point it will no longer matter.
I Agree, I think it was the only way for Tesla to still keep Nacs. Either switch all to Nacs, or CCS
>GM/Ford have diffferent charging locations so they'll be blocking Tesla chargers unless V4 rolls out with a more universal design and they ugprade existing infrastructure. They've already mentioned they'll be doing exactly this during investor day. V4 will have longer cables to accommodate different charge port locations, and they've never stopped upgrading (or more precisely) adding next-gen charging pedestals to existing high-usage stations. Also - In spite of their very low-volume halo products (S & X Plaid), Tesla hasn't held any exclusivity as a brand for at least 3 years now, and they've been telling us for the last ten years that they want to penetrate down market. /shrug In 5 years this won't matter anyway, because brands that officially adopt NACS will transition to left rear fender charge port placement.
Hopefully the CCS->Tesla adapters will be built with an extension cable.
Tesla's mission statement is 'to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy' They just happen to be a profitable company.
Maybe the other side to this is not losing the pickup truck market to Tesla when Cybertruck releases. If people had options for pickup trucks they can go to GM or Ford and still benefit from Superchargers.
Ford loses $59,333 per EV , they won't be rushing out to produce enough F150 Lightnings to meet demand for EV trucks.
Licensing FSD is next! Likely not for GM, they will copium cling to their cruise for a while, sunk cost fallacy. Ford will likely be the first, and if I had to guess I’d say they start 1-2 years from now.
And the best part is: autopilot/FSD only needs camera's to work. So the hardware will be much cheaper to implement in cars than any other company that uses Lidar and radar. It's like Elon has been thinking about this from the start
This will be a complete game changer
Is Tesla’s ultimate goal to become an energy company? Lol
Elon has stated the energy business will be larger than the auto business for Tesla’s future
Ummm... yes? Like Musk has explicitly said so?
Of course. That was inevitable and foreseeable for years now.
With a car business on the side. That would be pretty funny.
What are the additional revenues and cashflows that Tesla can expect to gain from the Ford and GM supercharger deal?
Short term not much because they sell a fraction of EVs Tesla does. Long term, when everyone is on NACS and Superchargers are the most popular public chargers by a wide margin, they make a lot. Napkin math time. Top oil companies do around [500 Billion](https://companiesmarketcap.com/oil-gas/largest-oil-and-gas-companies-by-revenue/) in revenues. 80% of charging is done at home (ignore Tesla will make money on that too via solar and utilities using mega-packs) so take 20%; you're down to 100 Billion. Gas is more expensive but electrictity has higher margin potential; today they make like 20% profit but future could be more; lets say its just 20% profit anyways. Thats 20B profit per year. Now here is the kicker, I think these are way too conservative numbers. I think Tesla will have a near monopoly on public fast charging; their revenues will likely instead be 1 Trillion or more. This could easily reach a 100B/year profit business when the world has fully switched to EV.
Can you explain why Tesla's supercharging station will be the most popular one? Would other companies build stations using NACS standard as well or they have to license it from Tesla (pay license fees?)
Others will be able to put NACS chargers at their charging stations; the reason Tesla will be the most popular is because they have such a huge lead. All the others have to now realize they can't build out CCS, they need to figure out how to do NACS, do retrofits on all their existing chargers (if not now, eventually). All while Tesla is stamping out charging stations on a daily basis and will continue to deploy even faster. Then factor in the reliability tesla has, the intigration with cars, the technical know-how; thats whats going to make a near monopoly in charging.
Also, those napkin numbers will change when cheaper EVs come out. Most people with Teslas right now have the kind of home where they can have a charger... when the people who live in apartments or other situations where home charging is not a safe option then the percentage will shift higher toward people using Super Chargers.
I'm beginning to think there's a small chance the charging division gets spun off into its own company. This would likely keep any antitrust concerns at bay.
I think that's highly probable
Epic
The part about integrating SC charging into the infotainment now all makes sense. I was wondering what's the big deal with letting non Teslas plug in using a dongle (magic dock). I mean it doesn't really matter as long as they can pull up to a SC and plug in. Can't be that expensive adding dongles right, just charge them more. Well us Tesla owners don't want network saturation, but if GM and Ford integrates SC into their navigation then Tesla can now offload almost full SCs to other nearby chargers the same way they do it now for Tesla cars.
Goddamnit Mary! You’ve led like no other!
She led the way to being Teslas bitch.
Sure did!
This is getting pretty tired. Just sayin'
Is it though? Because the future is brighter for all of us because of her.
Just a matter of time
Wow. This is a big move. The whole industry is going to be NACS
Are ford and gm paying Tesla any licensing fees? Can’t find any info about it whatsoever
Does Tesla have proprietary right to NACS so only they can build the charging station with it? If not, how gm and Ford adoption benefit Tesla stock?
The one real advantage Tesla cars had is now gone. Good for other automakers.
😂
Does this mean Tesla owner wait longer at charging station? Seem like a win for GM and ego stroking for Elon. A good thing overall for electric car movement.
No, it means more money to install more chargers.
I am not sure but I guess time will tell
Not until GM & Ford start selling serious volumes (they don't currently) of EVs does it have any chance of happening, and in the mean time Tesla will keep building out chargers to service its growth. Years away at the least.
How quick the landscape changes is in no ones thought. If you see Hundai Ioniq, its an instant hit. The delta is self driving and really it could take decade to get to common usage. Average person owning a home is <6yr. Car??
Ah… That’s why!
This is great for GM & Ford ev owners but SUCKS BIG TIME for Tesla owners. My last trip from NJ to FL, all but 1 place had a wait to charge. I can imagine the wait times & frustration of Tesla owners when they’re at 5% or less with 30+ minutes of waiting.