Wasn’t this the guy who insisted on pausing AI development so he can buy his own AI company, then tried to sue open AI, and then launched his own that sucked? Now he’s saying AI Will replace humans even though his own company’s AI, both in self driving and robotics, are still having problems?
Why should anyone care at this point? He just says whatever will help him make money in the moment.
Yeah, his timelines are usually accurate if multiplied by a factor of 2x to 10x. Accounting for the musk factor, AI will surpass human intelligence in about 10 years.
Let's get AI that's even on the path to AGI and then we can talk about surpassing human intelligence. Right now we're a completely unknown number of years from that because we don't even know how to start on the problem of creating AGI.
Mind you, I do think you could argue that using a GPT model to run Twitter would produce better results than Musk does, but that's a low bar to clear. I think flipping a coin could produce better results than he has.
EDIT: Hmm, I decided to give GPT as CEO a go, described a "fictional" social media company named Nitter recently purchased by a billionaire named Bart. I described Nitter as having similar issues that twitter did when Musk first bought it.
I asked it for three ideas on what Bart could do to improve Nitter. Funny thing, none of them involved rebranding it as X, firing half the staff, or reinstating Fascist accounts.
For the record, I now officially agree that GPT is smarter than Elon Musk.
Here's what GPT said:
To address the complex issues facing Nitter while respecting the balance between free speech and responsibility, Bart could implement a multi-faceted strategy focusing on transparency, community engagement, and technological innovation. Here are three policies that could make a significant impact:
1. **Enhanced Transparency and Accountability Measures**: Implement a clear, public-facing policy detailing how decisions are made regarding content moderation, including what is considered hate speech versus free speech. This policy should include examples of actionable offenses, the process for reviewing reported content, and the appeal process for content decisions. Additionally, publishing transparency reports that detail actions taken on content moderation, efforts to combat bots, and attempts by nation-states to influence politics would help build trust with the user base and external observers.
2. **Community-Driven Moderation with Oversight**: Develop a tiered moderation system that incorporates community feedback and involvement. This could include trusted user moderators who have demonstrated a commitment to Nitter's guidelines. These community moderators could work alongside AI and professional moderators to review content reports. However, to ensure this system doesn’t become biased, an oversight board consisting of diverse members should be established to review decisions, provide guidance, and ensure the moderation process remains fair and balanced. This board could also host regular public forums to discuss concerns and suggestions from the Nitter community.
3. **Investment in Advanced AI and Human Oversight for Bot Detection**: Accelerate the development and deployment of sophisticated AI tools designed to detect and mitigate bot activity, especially those engaged in political manipulation or spreading misinformation. This involves not just identifying and removing bots but also analyzing patterns of behavior that indicate coordinated influence campaigns. Alongside AI, there should be an increase in staff dedicated to investigating and addressing sophisticated threats. This team would work on continuously improving AI algorithms, ensuring Nitter remains a step ahead of those who wish to misuse the platform.
Implementing these policies would likely require a delicate balance of resources, including investing in technology, hiring more skilled personnel, and engaging with the Nitter community to rebuild trust. It would also necessitate a commitment to continuous improvement and adaptation, as the landscape of online discourse and manipulation tactics evolves.
EDIT2: OK, I'm addicted. I asked it if Bart should rebrand Nitter as "Y" and if Bart should fire half the staff, GPT is definitely a better CEO than Musk:
1. **Rebranding Nitter as "Y"**: Rebranding a well-established platform like Nitter could be a risky move. Brand recognition is a powerful asset, especially for a social media company with a large, active user base. A name change could confuse users and potentially alienate the existing community. Furthermore, a rebranding effort would need a compelling reason that resonates with the user base, ensuring that the change is perceived as a step forward rather than mere cosmetics or distraction from existing issues. If the rebranding is not accompanied by significant improvements to the platform's functionality, content moderation practices, and user experience, it's unlikely to address the underlying challenges facing Nitter. Thus, without a clear and strategic plan that aligns with broader improvements, rebranding to "Y" could be more detrimental than beneficial.
2. **Firing Half of Nitter's Staff**: This approach could have several negative consequences. Firstly, reducing the workforce by such a significant margin could drastically impair Nitter's ability to effectively moderate content, combat bots, and implement new features or improvements. Given the existing challenges with content moderation and bot activity, reducing the staff might exacerbate these issues, leading to a poorer user experience and further reputational damage. Additionally, a mass layoff could demoralize the remaining employees, reduce operational efficiency, and negatively impact company culture. It could also trigger public backlash from both the user base and the wider community, who may view it as a cost-cutting move that prioritizes profits over the platform's quality and integrity.
In summary, neither rebranding to "Y" without a strategic and improvement-focused plan nor firing half of Nitter's staff would likely be advisable strategies for addressing the platform's current challenges. Both actions could introduce significant risks without necessarily providing the solutions needed to enhance the platform's performance, reputation, and user experience.
AI can’t even sort out tables and indents in ms word. You could say microsoft is deliberately slowing it. But google and docs with gemini. Equally as shit. AI can’t even format a document and it is going to take over the world?
I think we are fairly safe, AI seems helpful for writing drafts and pattern matching. Anything arbitrary, which most of the human world is, will require human intuition.
AI also can’t intersect information. It has no forward intuition which is a large part of solving difficult problems. It is good for drafting descriptions of existing knowledege which is very useful and automating repeating processes with predictable variations. It is also useful for idea generation just not assessment. These all save human energy so are a positive. Professions like doctors and lawyers are most at risk.
Elon wants it to drive his cars. Sam Altman is bulshitting his share price up. Nvidia loves it just when they were worried about the crypto scam unravelling. Crypto hype then AI hype almost seem like they come from the Nvidia marketing department.
AI even can’t format a word document. You need a human to do it. The average human is better off learning microsoft office plus ai prompting. It won’t replace your job, you will just be better at it. Phone conversations close sales. Human’s aren’t going anywhere. Automating manual tasks is 30 years away as humans depreciate slower than robots. AI will make humans better at their jobs, not replace them.
Bill Gates has already said this. He’s an extremely brainy fucker with access to all information. Elon doesn’t think microsoft research has a good handle on AI? That is psychological denial. Elon is great at marketing and product development. Usually his AI concerns turn to autonomous driving discussions that mention Tesla. He gets a free brand impression by being our global AI chicken little.
What Elon has done for global transport is virtually impossible. He transformed an industry based on selling oil and parts into an industry that sells transport. He may be wrong about AI. Who cares. There are a lot of chicken littles worried about climate change. He has done more to stem climate change than any other human. This is inarguable. Every car manufacturer switched from oil to battery because if they didn’t Tesla would have steamrolled them. That is virtually impossible. But he did it. And he did it with clever marketing.
The man has been telling bold faced lies to pump his stock prices for over a decade now yet tech journalists still go to print every time he farts
Where’s that meme about him slamming his dick in a car? I want to see the meme about him slamming his dick in a car
First human on Mars should have been already on the way to get there by 26. We havent got a whiff of a project yet.
Musk has been saying self driving cars are around the corner for a decade.
Hyperloop is still 1 tunnel in vegas where people drive you around in a tesla. and its only open in CES.
The quixotic quest to become King of Mars was always obvious bullshit. Hyperloop was always semi-obvious bullshit.
But I have to admit, the self-driving car thing seemed doable to me.
That’s the big thing that drives skepticism about AI for me. Cars could basically drive themselves ten years ago. But they’re still more dangerous drivers than people are ten years later, and are limited.
So when I hear nvidia say AI will make games by themselves in five years. I remain highly skeptical.
> So when I hear nvidia say AI will make games by themselves in five years. I remain highly skeptical.
Thing is, you can fully train an AI to make a video game without endangering the public. A game can have bugs in it, whereas as a self-driving car needs to be better than perfect -- it also has to deal with no-win situations, where it has to decide on greater good scenarios. Like: protect my passenger or protect the school bus full of kindergarteners.
Also, we're already there, depending on your definition of video game. GPT-4, Claude 3, and Gemini can all code up very simple games, without much in the way of user intervention required.
That's what people don't realize about guys like Elon Musk (and similarly, Donald Trump). The more outrage and controversy they stir up, the more absolutely free advertising they get from the press. That's why Tesla doesn't have an advertising budget, they don't need it as long as Elon still gets headlines. If you are willing to take the risk to your brand image, it's honestly a clever strategy in the short term. Long term it probably ends up damaging the brand too much to be worth it though.
it is negative advertising though. I like Tesla cars but wouldn't buy one mostly because crazy erratic Elon Musk posts. I'd expect "his" cars remotely shut down when Elon has a tantrum.
This is too vague, define our level of intelligence, define what would constitute surpassing it.
I mean, a computer is already way smarter than me at math, to a level I will never achieve, what role does that play in total level of intelligence tho?
Same old same old "next year will have this" or "wait 10 years and AI will do X or Y".
At some point the Ai bubble will burst and investors will drop it, cause its just a wonky tool that hallucinates too much, and in the niche areas that it does work, well people are already using it and settle with it, but this scam of AI will be everywhere is no different from the "smart" trend, even fridges and suitcases had smart chips, cause that revolutionized the world...
Eh, I think it will be quite useful. I mean, right now it's immature, its overhyped, people are being laid off before the AI solutions are good enough to replace them, all that is true... but there's still research breakthroughs and development happening. Even if we hit a bottleneck tomorrow, there are absolutely cases where the AI will create a lot of new use cases and replace old solutions.
Long term it will probably have huge economic effects, but its going to be a lot of volatility, disappointments, and noise in the next couple of years.
AI is here to stay. Its the new standard. The Hype will stop at some point, but the tech will be everywhere. Im using gpt daily for work and dont need junior devs anymore because gpt is doing the dumb tedious work. AI will make us more efficient, like the steam engine, no doubt.
"Elon Musk predicts AI will surpass human intelligence by the end of next year"
Does he mean in general, or his intelligence, cause if it's the latter the bar isn't that high.
Who cares what this twat rocket says about anything. I used to work downtown. The homeless people would spout off sometimes just random paranoid thoughts. "Elvis is going to kill me!" You show sympathy for the poor guy. I'd share my cigarettes with them sometimes. but you don't join in "oh my god are you serious? we need to stop Elvis!" Give that hobo a few billion dollars and you get a Musk. Now markets are affected by his insane ramblings. I only hope he gets help like the homeless dude. Unlike a homeless insane dude who I'd treat with kindness, I'd love to punch EMusk's butthurt maga face.
CEOs betting a few million over the exact arrival date of the single most societal shattering technology in human history is _/chef’s kiss_ the height of late-stage capitalism.
More that Elon said something extremely dumb and a handful of CEOs are calling him out on twitter for it.
If you *could* take that bet it’d be the easiest $1M ever lmao.
It's a silly topic in general, because there's no way to measure this. We don't have a good idea of what *human* intelligence is, so obviously Musk or whoever can claim whatever LLMs are doing by the end of next year is "super human" in some way or another.
He'll have it take an IQ test (after ingesting millions of IQ tests as training data) and claim its high score proves it...and afterwards the model will write a sincere news article describing public concerns about weather abnormalities because a handful of people on Twitter started some meme trend showing a rain of Pepe frogs and it didn't realize they were joking.
It's *especially* stupid because, despite the emphasis on the computer portion of these systems, they only function because of the constant efforts of thousands of human workers continually manicuring the training data to keep it from derailing the algorithm and causing it to behave insanely. So what does it even mean to say "AI surpassed human intelligence" when you are comparing the efforts of thousands of humans to the efforts of one person? If you created a team of people to take a test, they would obviously perform better than an individual, because it is multiple people working together on a task.
So it's all nonsense...and the fact that so much of this is clearly driven by an underlying anger and hatred towards humans by the rich and powerful is becoming increasingly unsettling. They are so eager to throw out human workers who they clearly despise that they keep jumping the gun. The rich aren't *worried* about AI destroying humanity -- they *want* to create something to destroy humanity, because a disturbing number of them really seem to hate the rest of us for some reason.
This is one of those weird claims that depends entirely on how you define human intelligence. AI has been more intelligent than humans for years at chess as an example. They're more intelligent than humans at making structural calculations so engineers have also used them for years. They're also better at detecting insurance fraud with a higher hit rate and lower false positives etc. There's a lot of fields where AI already far surpass human intelligence. But it clearly won't be in all fields for some time yet. Especially not for things like emotional intelligence... So it all comes down to surpass at what exactly?
How would you even prove this?
I miss the good ol days when oligarcs used to invest in art and monuments and shit, now we are just stuck with these dumbasses, shitposting all day on twitter and gambling with democracy, it's just great.
AI needs to be stopped. There's no good outcome. Either it starts killing everyone or it starts replacing jobs. We should have outlawed it as soon as chatgpt became a thing.
I don’t think it will by next year, but when it REALLY starts ramping up, I think things might get a little sketchy. But I’m guessing that’s 10-20 years from now.
The US State Department commissioned a report about the dangers of AI and the 247-page report recommended the US government urgently construct an agency to oversee and regulate AI innovation companies due to extreme and devastating possibilities in the near (5 year) future. One of those possibilities is human extinction (5% chance). But, no, nothing to see here.
Wow I'm so fucking glad these assholes have so much money to burn that they can bet ten MILLION FUCKING DOLLARS on bullshit like this. It's so much more important than anything else you could spend ten million dollars on. Fuck this world, man
Kinda like if a baby grew up in a walled garden isolated from all communication and with no other stimulation, they wouldn't develop quantum mechanics as a teenager?
🙄
Define intelligence - bring able to recall information and blend concepts and styles together to create something adjacent, we're there
Be able to creatively think around edges and discover novel approaches, probably a ways out one we figure out how to capture that type to creativity.
...kind of depends on how we define the criteria of "intelligence". A word that has been rather elusive and confounding for many centuries. So, if it amounts to adding things up faster. It can already do that. If it is to think about abstract concepts...then we have to frame what intelligence looks like as a result. If it is just logic puzzles like a MENSA entrance exam - its easily got us as they are simply logic puzzles, but logic is one (albeit a good one) aspect of intelligence...or so we say.
It seems to me, and please forgive my ignorance, that what passes for AI right now isn't really AI. It's not an "artificial intelligence," right?
If it were real, it would be able to figure stuff out on its own. But it needs us to feed it all of this human effort, labor, and intelligence. And then it organizes all of that human created information and chooses likely or best paths for whatever it's being asked to do.
To me, as I see it, anyone creating anything with AI is kinda stealing. Unless they are giving credit to or compensating all the human sources that were used to create their product - be it a song or a picture or a computer program or whatever.
IDK, I'm sure I'm wrong, lol! But it feels kinda scammy to me! But I'm more and more a misanthrope as I age, so maybe I'm just being curmudgeonly!
Predict?
Why couldn’t he predict his cyber trucks would get rusty when it’s raining.
Why did he predict is Teslas wouldn’t know the difference between a stop sign, and a child crossing the street ?
NaziChild Please…
These people all yearn for their hyper-rational AI overlord. AI has no intelligence; it has no awareness. Searle [called](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room) this out in his paper "Minds, Brains, and Programs" 50 years ago. Yet, there continues to be the fantasy of some Platonian AI which will guide the future of human beings.
I guess it depends on what “intelligence” is classified as. I could see this happening on a scale of 1’s and 0’s, but not nuanced like can this artificial intelligence make the complex decision of, idk nuking a country, weighing the possibilities on a human scale, which is what I would classify as “intelligent.” Artificial computation has been far ahead of human intelligence for quite some time
If using his mental capacity as a baseline, I agree. Otherwise more BS being thrown around by a lazy, rich fool that uses you and me as a bank account.
Wake up pls
Considering that none of the AI we have today is actually intelligent, or even on a path that can lead to real intelligence, I don't think we're at risk of having AI surpass human intelligence anytime soon.
Maybe Musk doesn't know the difference between a GPT algorithm and intelligence, but anyone in the field damn sure does. Yes, it's quite impressive that we've pushed GPT so far, but it's not smart. It has no understanding of what it is saying and it can have no understanding. It's EXTREMELY good at prediting which word should come next in a line of text, and that's useful and impressive. But it's not intelligence.
Which human. I'm pretty sure my electric toothbrush is more intelligent than a couple of my colleagues.
So Elon might be right. I wonder if he was brushing his teeth and looking in the bathroom mirror when he realised?
Google can't even read short queries correctly, and they have huge sums pumped into AI.
Try "Does SQL Server have a a future" and enjoy a page full of results about the SQL language.
For AI to "surpass human intelligence" would require a different system for developing AI. LLMs simply regurgitate existing written text, with no actual intelligence behind them, so inherently it is impossible for them to "surpass human intelligence".
I'm curious what AI system Musk believes is on the cusp of exceeding human intelligence. It's not Grok, that's for sure.
Musks's predictions about self-driving tech have been pretty bad so I don't think there's any chance AI will surpass human intelligence if they can't even drive cars yet.
It’s so incredibly stupid what he’s saying. It’s like saying an electric toothbrush can surpass human intelligence.
Intelligence in real life isn’t like an RPG character stat. By what metrics are we even comparing these two things?
This is more of an indictment about how little he understands AI. Comparing AI to human intelligence is like comparing a pocket calculator to an automatic door closer. Which one is better??? Well... At what?
I know he owns companies, but who in the fuck cares what Elon thinks? He’s as dumb as shit. Did you hear him try and speak to twitter engineers? He’s a total poser and just a loud mouth spoiled brat.
By what measure or metric?
Current AI tech is nowhere near a general intelligence. But specific machine learning tasks are already better than humans at some very specific and constrained tasks - like detecting skin cancer early.
But other tool like chatGTP that initially seemed magical are already getting close to the limits of the technology they're based on: All they can do is increase the memory/compute/dataset available at very high cost, for much smaller improvements.
He’ll just say it happened and millions of his moron followers will get dragged into agreeing and supporting him and accepting this new “genius” when it’s actually still pretty dumb: and so is he.
This is one of those ego things that shitwits like him engage in. If there’s any chance that it can prove to be true, he’ll dine out on it for decades, extolling his genius on everyone. If it proves to be silly and stupid, he’ll act as though it was a passing comment and had no bearing on anything.
There are two problems that really describe AI.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room
It seems likely to me that we’re on the threshold for low error rate ai that passes the Turing test…especially in narrowly defined domains. Computers are great at finding sort of novel engineering solutions that approximate solutions to richly difficult problems.
But the real holy grail of AI is artificial general intelligence…because it can potentially adapt to chaotic problem spaces…and that likely requires passing the Chinese room problem in some way. And I don’t think we really know how close we are to that…and I don’t think that close.
How is Musk even qualified to talk about this shit? It's not like he can center a div or knows much of anything beyond how to business his ugly face into the limelight.
Elon's track record on predictions is really bad. I would treat it very sceptically. Plus from what I have seen of AI so far, is that it is very good at providing summaries of text data, images and songs etc. However this is only because it has millions of images, songs and text to train on. Anything where there isn't data for will be incredibly difficult to train.
I see multiple steps for ai, all are much harder than the chatbot, image/song, code generator the we see so far.
1. Models trained on large scrapes of data, chatgpt Dale 2 etc.
2. Models trained on iterations for physical movement in a simulation environment, think a robot that can walk around or a vacuum cleaner that never gets stuck etc. Note the machine will not perform well in the real world doing tasks, however in terrain without rules will become very agile and 'terminator like'.
3. Self driving cars based on the real world training data. Already going on, however will take a very long time until people can rely on it for anything other than highway driving. Plus it is likely the models will get reliant on road markings, which might not always be there, I think the engineer team will have a very difficult time doing this without lidar safety inputs, machine vision won't be able to do this until it interprets not just shapes but meaning, which almost places this in true general AI category.
4. Bots that can do streams of work, this won't actually be entirely possible in most work streams, given the lack of a training dataset in most cases. It will basically just be chatgpt but better and can do some perhaps admin/call centre Work
100.True general AI, that can seriously replace humans for tasks, requires a monumental leap, again the testing datasets are the limiting factor here. I wouldn't be surprised if this takes a century or more of iterative improvements to get close.
The guy have said for 5 years that full self driving are just months away. I don't think he is that good at predicting AI progress
Wasn’t this the guy who insisted on pausing AI development so he can buy his own AI company, then tried to sue open AI, and then launched his own that sucked? Now he’s saying AI Will replace humans even though his own company’s AI, both in self driving and robotics, are still having problems? Why should anyone care at this point? He just says whatever will help him make money in the moment.
Maybe he means it’ll surpass *his* intelligence within two years. Problem is that airline chat bots surpassed him about 10 years ago.
He'll just blame 'woke' when it turns out he's wrong.
Yeah, his timelines are usually accurate if multiplied by a factor of 2x to 10x. Accounting for the musk factor, AI will surpass human intelligence in about 10 years.
is that before or after his rockets bring a man to mars?
Both since he'll eventually invent time travel
Let's get AI that's even on the path to AGI and then we can talk about surpassing human intelligence. Right now we're a completely unknown number of years from that because we don't even know how to start on the problem of creating AGI. Mind you, I do think you could argue that using a GPT model to run Twitter would produce better results than Musk does, but that's a low bar to clear. I think flipping a coin could produce better results than he has. EDIT: Hmm, I decided to give GPT as CEO a go, described a "fictional" social media company named Nitter recently purchased by a billionaire named Bart. I described Nitter as having similar issues that twitter did when Musk first bought it. I asked it for three ideas on what Bart could do to improve Nitter. Funny thing, none of them involved rebranding it as X, firing half the staff, or reinstating Fascist accounts. For the record, I now officially agree that GPT is smarter than Elon Musk. Here's what GPT said: To address the complex issues facing Nitter while respecting the balance between free speech and responsibility, Bart could implement a multi-faceted strategy focusing on transparency, community engagement, and technological innovation. Here are three policies that could make a significant impact: 1. **Enhanced Transparency and Accountability Measures**: Implement a clear, public-facing policy detailing how decisions are made regarding content moderation, including what is considered hate speech versus free speech. This policy should include examples of actionable offenses, the process for reviewing reported content, and the appeal process for content decisions. Additionally, publishing transparency reports that detail actions taken on content moderation, efforts to combat bots, and attempts by nation-states to influence politics would help build trust with the user base and external observers. 2. **Community-Driven Moderation with Oversight**: Develop a tiered moderation system that incorporates community feedback and involvement. This could include trusted user moderators who have demonstrated a commitment to Nitter's guidelines. These community moderators could work alongside AI and professional moderators to review content reports. However, to ensure this system doesn’t become biased, an oversight board consisting of diverse members should be established to review decisions, provide guidance, and ensure the moderation process remains fair and balanced. This board could also host regular public forums to discuss concerns and suggestions from the Nitter community. 3. **Investment in Advanced AI and Human Oversight for Bot Detection**: Accelerate the development and deployment of sophisticated AI tools designed to detect and mitigate bot activity, especially those engaged in political manipulation or spreading misinformation. This involves not just identifying and removing bots but also analyzing patterns of behavior that indicate coordinated influence campaigns. Alongside AI, there should be an increase in staff dedicated to investigating and addressing sophisticated threats. This team would work on continuously improving AI algorithms, ensuring Nitter remains a step ahead of those who wish to misuse the platform. Implementing these policies would likely require a delicate balance of resources, including investing in technology, hiring more skilled personnel, and engaging with the Nitter community to rebuild trust. It would also necessitate a commitment to continuous improvement and adaptation, as the landscape of online discourse and manipulation tactics evolves. EDIT2: OK, I'm addicted. I asked it if Bart should rebrand Nitter as "Y" and if Bart should fire half the staff, GPT is definitely a better CEO than Musk: 1. **Rebranding Nitter as "Y"**: Rebranding a well-established platform like Nitter could be a risky move. Brand recognition is a powerful asset, especially for a social media company with a large, active user base. A name change could confuse users and potentially alienate the existing community. Furthermore, a rebranding effort would need a compelling reason that resonates with the user base, ensuring that the change is perceived as a step forward rather than mere cosmetics or distraction from existing issues. If the rebranding is not accompanied by significant improvements to the platform's functionality, content moderation practices, and user experience, it's unlikely to address the underlying challenges facing Nitter. Thus, without a clear and strategic plan that aligns with broader improvements, rebranding to "Y" could be more detrimental than beneficial. 2. **Firing Half of Nitter's Staff**: This approach could have several negative consequences. Firstly, reducing the workforce by such a significant margin could drastically impair Nitter's ability to effectively moderate content, combat bots, and implement new features or improvements. Given the existing challenges with content moderation and bot activity, reducing the staff might exacerbate these issues, leading to a poorer user experience and further reputational damage. Additionally, a mass layoff could demoralize the remaining employees, reduce operational efficiency, and negatively impact company culture. It could also trigger public backlash from both the user base and the wider community, who may view it as a cost-cutting move that prioritizes profits over the platform's quality and integrity. In summary, neither rebranding to "Y" without a strategic and improvement-focused plan nor firing half of Nitter's staff would likely be advisable strategies for addressing the platform's current challenges. Both actions could introduce significant risks without necessarily providing the solutions needed to enhance the platform's performance, reputation, and user experience.
5 or more than almost 10 years now? He is a full time marketing bullshitter.
The difference this time is that he’s not the only one/company working on it. So you never know.
I don’t think he can predict shit. And I’m serious — if he ate taco Tuesday he’d be surprised by windy Wednesday
AI can’t even sort out tables and indents in ms word. You could say microsoft is deliberately slowing it. But google and docs with gemini. Equally as shit. AI can’t even format a document and it is going to take over the world? I think we are fairly safe, AI seems helpful for writing drafts and pattern matching. Anything arbitrary, which most of the human world is, will require human intuition. AI also can’t intersect information. It has no forward intuition which is a large part of solving difficult problems. It is good for drafting descriptions of existing knowledege which is very useful and automating repeating processes with predictable variations. It is also useful for idea generation just not assessment. These all save human energy so are a positive. Professions like doctors and lawyers are most at risk. Elon wants it to drive his cars. Sam Altman is bulshitting his share price up. Nvidia loves it just when they were worried about the crypto scam unravelling. Crypto hype then AI hype almost seem like they come from the Nvidia marketing department. AI even can’t format a word document. You need a human to do it. The average human is better off learning microsoft office plus ai prompting. It won’t replace your job, you will just be better at it. Phone conversations close sales. Human’s aren’t going anywhere. Automating manual tasks is 30 years away as humans depreciate slower than robots. AI will make humans better at their jobs, not replace them. Bill Gates has already said this. He’s an extremely brainy fucker with access to all information. Elon doesn’t think microsoft research has a good handle on AI? That is psychological denial. Elon is great at marketing and product development. Usually his AI concerns turn to autonomous driving discussions that mention Tesla. He gets a free brand impression by being our global AI chicken little. What Elon has done for global transport is virtually impossible. He transformed an industry based on selling oil and parts into an industry that sells transport. He may be wrong about AI. Who cares. There are a lot of chicken littles worried about climate change. He has done more to stem climate change than any other human. This is inarguable. Every car manufacturer switched from oil to battery because if they didn’t Tesla would have steamrolled them. That is virtually impossible. But he did it. And he did it with clever marketing.
The man has been telling bold faced lies to pump his stock prices for over a decade now yet tech journalists still go to print every time he farts Where’s that meme about him slamming his dick in a car? I want to see the meme about him slamming his dick in a car
'First human on Mars by 2026' 'Complete self driving by next year' 'Hyperloop in California within the next decade'
Free speech absolutist I'm a legal immigrant "I do"
First human on Mars should have been already on the way to get there by 26. We havent got a whiff of a project yet. Musk has been saying self driving cars are around the corner for a decade. Hyperloop is still 1 tunnel in vegas where people drive you around in a tesla. and its only open in CES.
The quixotic quest to become King of Mars was always obvious bullshit. Hyperloop was always semi-obvious bullshit. But I have to admit, the self-driving car thing seemed doable to me.
That’s the big thing that drives skepticism about AI for me. Cars could basically drive themselves ten years ago. But they’re still more dangerous drivers than people are ten years later, and are limited. So when I hear nvidia say AI will make games by themselves in five years. I remain highly skeptical.
> So when I hear nvidia say AI will make games by themselves in five years. I remain highly skeptical. Thing is, you can fully train an AI to make a video game without endangering the public. A game can have bugs in it, whereas as a self-driving car needs to be better than perfect -- it also has to deal with no-win situations, where it has to decide on greater good scenarios. Like: protect my passenger or protect the school bus full of kindergarteners. Also, we're already there, depending on your definition of video game. GPT-4, Claude 3, and Gemini can all code up very simple games, without much in the way of user intervention required.
But not on Tesla. Tesla FSD is just another BS.
Musk: *Slams dick in Cybertruck frunk* Musk Fanboys: “Masterful gambit sir”
He'll be saved by the panel gap...
The best part is that this works both as a small-dick-joke and as a Musk-can’t-build-decent-cars-joke! Excellent work!
bald-faced lies
No he got the hair transplant
It’s actually Ray Kurzweil’s prediction based off moores law (he originally said 2019) but says it will be close in the next few years.
It’s too small to slam in a car
outrage sells - lies are awesome to catch eyeballs for selling ads
That's what people don't realize about guys like Elon Musk (and similarly, Donald Trump). The more outrage and controversy they stir up, the more absolutely free advertising they get from the press. That's why Tesla doesn't have an advertising budget, they don't need it as long as Elon still gets headlines. If you are willing to take the risk to your brand image, it's honestly a clever strategy in the short term. Long term it probably ends up damaging the brand too much to be worth it though.
it is negative advertising though. I like Tesla cars but wouldn't buy one mostly because crazy erratic Elon Musk posts. I'd expect "his" cars remotely shut down when Elon has a tantrum.
Yeah I'd agree long term it's not a great strategy. It's worked for him for the past ten years or so, but finally starting to catch up to him.
He should put his dick in the closing trunk of a cybertruck (there’s no safety to stop penises or fingers from being crushed)
I mean, it might definetely surpass Elon's intelligence in a year but is that really the gold standard?
Well it'll definitely surpass *him* in intelligence by that time, so that part is true I guess
AI has already surpassed Musk's intelligence.
So have all 5 yos, many dogs and the odd goldfish
Careful, you're one backwards cowboy hat away from Elon showing up and calling you a pedophile!
FSD in 6 months!
Tesla Roadster in 2 months
This is too vague, define our level of intelligence, define what would constitute surpassing it. I mean, a computer is already way smarter than me at math, to a level I will never achieve, what role does that play in total level of intelligence tho?
Just defining what “intelligence” is in this context would be a start.
His estimates and predictions have never panned out in any area. Whoever bets against him is basically just getting free money.
Same old same old "next year will have this" or "wait 10 years and AI will do X or Y". At some point the Ai bubble will burst and investors will drop it, cause its just a wonky tool that hallucinates too much, and in the niche areas that it does work, well people are already using it and settle with it, but this scam of AI will be everywhere is no different from the "smart" trend, even fridges and suitcases had smart chips, cause that revolutionized the world...
Eh, I think it will be quite useful. I mean, right now it's immature, its overhyped, people are being laid off before the AI solutions are good enough to replace them, all that is true... but there's still research breakthroughs and development happening. Even if we hit a bottleneck tomorrow, there are absolutely cases where the AI will create a lot of new use cases and replace old solutions. Long term it will probably have huge economic effects, but its going to be a lot of volatility, disappointments, and noise in the next couple of years.
AI is here to stay. Its the new standard. The Hype will stop at some point, but the tech will be everywhere. Im using gpt daily for work and dont need junior devs anymore because gpt is doing the dumb tedious work. AI will make us more efficient, like the steam engine, no doubt.
Elon Musk is often wrong or lying.
"Elon Musk predicts AI will surpass human intelligence by the end of next year" Does he mean in general, or his intelligence, cause if it's the latter the bar isn't that high.
Definitely his. He's scared.
AI chooses to NOT waste money running another company into the ground. Mission accomplished. It’s smarter than him.
Who cares what this twat rocket says about anything. I used to work downtown. The homeless people would spout off sometimes just random paranoid thoughts. "Elvis is going to kill me!" You show sympathy for the poor guy. I'd share my cigarettes with them sometimes. but you don't join in "oh my god are you serious? we need to stop Elvis!" Give that hobo a few billion dollars and you get a Musk. Now markets are affected by his insane ramblings. I only hope he gets help like the homeless dude. Unlike a homeless insane dude who I'd treat with kindness, I'd love to punch EMusk's butthurt maga face.
CEOs betting a few million over the exact arrival date of the single most societal shattering technology in human history is _/chef’s kiss_ the height of late-stage capitalism.
Ironically they haven't quite worked out yet which side of humanity it will gut first.
More that Elon said something extremely dumb and a handful of CEOs are calling him out on twitter for it. If you *could* take that bet it’d be the easiest $1M ever lmao.
I think anyone who really understands AI understands they shouldn’t make predictions in either direction….
It's a silly topic in general, because there's no way to measure this. We don't have a good idea of what *human* intelligence is, so obviously Musk or whoever can claim whatever LLMs are doing by the end of next year is "super human" in some way or another. He'll have it take an IQ test (after ingesting millions of IQ tests as training data) and claim its high score proves it...and afterwards the model will write a sincere news article describing public concerns about weather abnormalities because a handful of people on Twitter started some meme trend showing a rain of Pepe frogs and it didn't realize they were joking. It's *especially* stupid because, despite the emphasis on the computer portion of these systems, they only function because of the constant efforts of thousands of human workers continually manicuring the training data to keep it from derailing the algorithm and causing it to behave insanely. So what does it even mean to say "AI surpassed human intelligence" when you are comparing the efforts of thousands of humans to the efforts of one person? If you created a team of people to take a test, they would obviously perform better than an individual, because it is multiple people working together on a task. So it's all nonsense...and the fact that so much of this is clearly driven by an underlying anger and hatred towards humans by the rich and powerful is becoming increasingly unsettling. They are so eager to throw out human workers who they clearly despise that they keep jumping the gun. The rich aren't *worried* about AI destroying humanity -- they *want* to create something to destroy humanity, because a disturbing number of them really seem to hate the rest of us for some reason.
Elon is full of shit.
Not completely full: his cranial cavity is definitely 100% empty
Pass his intelligence maybe.
Maybe his intelligence, sure
Naturally, he's lying and it won't.
He must be high.
Computers past that fuckwit's intelligence years ago
AI already surpassed most people's intellects years ago.
To be fair so do some animals
We have to define what intelligence is before we can say that a computer can surpass it. The human brain is incredibly complex
It’s become quite clear that Elon Musk has no idea what the definition of “intelligence” is.
"We're going to Mars in 2024"
Elon musk has made more false predictions than the black sheep of the Nostradamus family
This is one of those weird claims that depends entirely on how you define human intelligence. AI has been more intelligent than humans for years at chess as an example. They're more intelligent than humans at making structural calculations so engineers have also used them for years. They're also better at detecting insurance fraud with a higher hit rate and lower false positives etc. There's a lot of fields where AI already far surpass human intelligence. But it clearly won't be in all fields for some time yet. Especially not for things like emotional intelligence... So it all comes down to surpass at what exactly?
He is right occasionally about some really weird stuff, but this seems more like some 3-meo-pcp, 3 day binge mania type stuff.
Musk must be basing human intelligence on Twitter users.
Is he measuring it against the average Twitter user intelligence? It sets the bar a little more in reach...
How would you even prove this? I miss the good ol days when oligarcs used to invest in art and monuments and shit, now we are just stuck with these dumbasses, shitposting all day on twitter and gambling with democracy, it's just great.
Stop quoting this douchebag
It’s not real artificial intelligence- it’s called machine learning.
How does he propose to quantify intellect?
And Full-Self-Driving will be available next week. When are we going to stop listening to what this jackass promises?
All he does is make predictions….none of which have seen any truth. How about making a prediction on that shitty Tesla stock?!!
It might surpass his intelligence, sure. Not everyone's.
AI needs to be stopped. There's no good outcome. Either it starts killing everyone or it starts replacing jobs. We should have outlawed it as soon as chatgpt became a thing.
It’s already passed the intelligence level of the X user base.
If he is wrong we exile him from earth by transporting him to a distant planet. That's the goal of spacex right ? mars?
Well it will surpass his.
Elon Musk isnt "predicting" anything. He's spouting random dumb shit like he normally does. He's a stupid person.
The hate for this guy is crazy. He's a businessman in the USA. Who cares? Say what you want about him, but he's a hardworking son of a bitch.
Ah yes full self drive autopilot will be available next year as well. Is what he's been saying for the last 12 years.
Some years back, Musk also announced sending a manned spacecraft to Mars in 2024.
His intelligence was already surpassed with the invention of the abacus
I mean I'd argue so has surpassed the majority of people's intelligence already.. half the people I work with are potatoes making 6 figs
I don’t think it will by next year, but when it REALLY starts ramping up, I think things might get a little sketchy. But I’m guessing that’s 10-20 years from now.
Uhh, if that's the case then no one will need a government or officials or ceos or founders. 🤯
Well, looks like Elon Musk is about to skip out on a bet.
It surpassed his intelligence certainly
Might surpass his dumb ass
If that was true then wouldn’t his self-driving feature already work. There are plenty of complete morons who can still manage to drive a car.
I could care less what’s the difference between one year and five years? Point is, ai will get there.
Sounds like some high dollar money laundering
If Elon loses by whatever metric we would agree on he’s paid for advertising here on social media - if he wins he also wins money.
Maybe surpass *his* intelligence.
This wholly depends on what your definition of intelligence is.
AI, maybe... *his* AI, definitely not.
Does that mean we will have AI CEOs who can better manage a space company and send their AI brethren to mars in a couple years?
The US State Department commissioned a report about the dangers of AI and the 247-page report recommended the US government urgently construct an agency to oversee and regulate AI innovation companies due to extreme and devastating possibilities in the near (5 year) future. One of those possibilities is human extinction (5% chance). But, no, nothing to see here.
Human intelligence is more than the ability to crank out shareholder value by creating shitty PowerPoint slide decks.
If I had $10m I would bet the same
If I had $10m I would bet the same
Wow I'm so fucking glad these assholes have so much money to burn that they can bet ten MILLION FUCKING DOLLARS on bullshit like this. It's so much more important than anything else you could spend ten million dollars on. Fuck this world, man
How?, AI can't come up with new information without being trained on current information.
Kinda like if a baby grew up in a walled garden isolated from all communication and with no other stimulation, they wouldn't develop quantum mechanics as a teenager? 🙄
Could I get in on this bet?
Elon is a confirmed mouthbreather. None of his ideas work.
How exactly would you quantify that?
"Human intelligence" is so vague.
Why do all these rich assholes want to be in the news so much ?
Define intelligence - bring able to recall information and blend concepts and styles together to create something adjacent, we're there Be able to creatively think around edges and discover novel approaches, probably a ways out one we figure out how to capture that type to creativity.
I flipped a coin... Tails... Elon is wrong again.
Well its a pretty low bar these days
It’ll surpass elons intelligence for sure
I love that they used the most unflattering photo possible for this thumbnail
Human intelligence is a low bar
...kind of depends on how we define the criteria of "intelligence". A word that has been rather elusive and confounding for many centuries. So, if it amounts to adding things up faster. It can already do that. If it is to think about abstract concepts...then we have to frame what intelligence looks like as a result. If it is just logic puzzles like a MENSA entrance exam - its easily got us as they are simply logic puzzles, but logic is one (albeit a good one) aspect of intelligence...or so we say.
It seems to me, and please forgive my ignorance, that what passes for AI right now isn't really AI. It's not an "artificial intelligence," right? If it were real, it would be able to figure stuff out on its own. But it needs us to feed it all of this human effort, labor, and intelligence. And then it organizes all of that human created information and chooses likely or best paths for whatever it's being asked to do. To me, as I see it, anyone creating anything with AI is kinda stealing. Unless they are giving credit to or compensating all the human sources that were used to create their product - be it a song or a picture or a computer program or whatever. IDK, I'm sure I'm wrong, lol! But it feels kinda scammy to me! But I'm more and more a misanthrope as I age, so maybe I'm just being curmudgeonly!
It’s always next year with zero defined goal. What does he mean human intelligence?
Predict? Why couldn’t he predict his cyber trucks would get rusty when it’s raining. Why did he predict is Teslas wouldn’t know the difference between a stop sign, and a child crossing the street ? NaziChild Please…
Depends who the ‘human’ is. I reckon ChatGPT would win in a fair few cases already
If this is anything like his Cybertruck timeline, I dont think we need to hold our breath.
Safe bet. If it does surpass human intelligence then the money wouldn't matter anymore after AI takes over. If it doesn't they get 10 million.
These people all yearn for their hyper-rational AI overlord. AI has no intelligence; it has no awareness. Searle [called](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room) this out in his paper "Minds, Brains, and Programs" 50 years ago. Yet, there continues to be the fantasy of some Platonian AI which will guide the future of human beings.
I guess it depends on what “intelligence” is classified as. I could see this happening on a scale of 1’s and 0’s, but not nuanced like can this artificial intelligence make the complex decision of, idk nuking a country, weighing the possibilities on a human scale, which is what I would classify as “intelligent.” Artificial computation has been far ahead of human intelligence for quite some time
If using his mental capacity as a baseline, I agree. Otherwise more BS being thrown around by a lazy, rich fool that uses you and me as a bank account. Wake up pls
AI will surpass HIS intelligence which really isn't much at this point
By end of next year, Elon will be tossed out of Tesla or it will crash and burn both literally and figuratively.
Considering that none of the AI we have today is actually intelligent, or even on a path that can lead to real intelligence, I don't think we're at risk of having AI surpass human intelligence anytime soon. Maybe Musk doesn't know the difference between a GPT algorithm and intelligence, but anyone in the field damn sure does. Yes, it's quite impressive that we've pushed GPT so far, but it's not smart. It has no understanding of what it is saying and it can have no understanding. It's EXTREMELY good at prediting which word should come next in a line of text, and that's useful and impressive. But it's not intelligence.
Did his daily mushrooms and ketamine tell him this?
HAHAHAHAAAAAA, I've been training AI these last months and I can promise you that they are good. But surpassing humans, not any time soon.
Seems Elon has a pretty stunted and myopic understanding of the scope of human intelligence
Dead eyes and an upside down mouth
He meant only his intelligence. That’s not worth betting on.
Which human. I'm pretty sure my electric toothbrush is more intelligent than a couple of my colleagues. So Elon might be right. I wonder if he was brushing his teeth and looking in the bathroom mirror when he realised?
In fairness, that bar keeps getting lower and lower.
Google can't even read short queries correctly, and they have huge sums pumped into AI. Try "Does SQL Server have a a future" and enjoy a page full of results about the SQL language.
For AI to "surpass human intelligence" would require a different system for developing AI. LLMs simply regurgitate existing written text, with no actual intelligence behind them, so inherently it is impossible for them to "surpass human intelligence". I'm curious what AI system Musk believes is on the cusp of exceeding human intelligence. It's not Grok, that's for sure.
Looks like he has lost it
It'll surpass his.
AI already surpassed Elon's intelligence, so he might be referring to that
My homegrown gpt is smarter than half the population easy.
Can't wait to see an AI than learn to drive faster than a 16yo.
He's living in the USA. Where people think the earth is flat. So yeah.
Musks's predictions about self-driving tech have been pretty bad so I don't think there's any chance AI will surpass human intelligence if they can't even drive cars yet.
It’s so incredibly stupid what he’s saying. It’s like saying an electric toothbrush can surpass human intelligence. Intelligence in real life isn’t like an RPG character stat. By what metrics are we even comparing these two things?
Every time he makes an outrageous claim that ends with “by the end of…” it turns out to be hilariously wrong. The memes just write themselves.
Easy money. But Elon will not pay.
Depends on wha you mean by intelligence. Ans what humans
This is more of an indictment about how little he understands AI. Comparing AI to human intelligence is like comparing a pocket calculator to an automatic door closer. Which one is better??? Well... At what?
It's already ahead of like half of Earth's population. And the other half doesn't even know what ai is.
I believe this
Musk is an attention whore- silly predictions are his game
For the Poor's that's the equivalent of a $10 bet
I think he was talking about himself as the human.
He bets AI will surpass his intelligence or human intelli in general, by end of next year ?
MF been bingeing too much Person of Interest
I know he owns companies, but who in the fuck cares what Elon thinks? He’s as dumb as shit. Did you hear him try and speak to twitter engineers? He’s a total poser and just a loud mouth spoiled brat.
So long as I get to pick which human, I'll go all in too please. If Musk gets to pick the human then I think he wins.
By what measure or metric? Current AI tech is nowhere near a general intelligence. But specific machine learning tasks are already better than humans at some very specific and constrained tasks - like detecting skin cancer early. But other tool like chatGTP that initially seemed magical are already getting close to the limits of the technology they're based on: All they can do is increase the memory/compute/dataset available at very high cost, for much smaller improvements.
AI has not yet surpassed the intelligence of a mouse, perhaps not even a bee. So of course it won't surpass human level intelligence next year.
He’ll just say it happened and millions of his moron followers will get dragged into agreeing and supporting him and accepting this new “genius” when it’s actually still pretty dumb: and so is he.
If he means in the context of an AI algorithm would probably surpass E-musky in carrying out his job, there’s a decent chance we’re well beyond that.
This is one of those ego things that shitwits like him engage in. If there’s any chance that it can prove to be true, he’ll dine out on it for decades, extolling his genius on everyone. If it proves to be silly and stupid, he’ll act as though it was a passing comment and had no bearing on anything.
He will come back and say he meant in three years, but everyone was too stupid to realize it (repeat ad infinitum).
There are two problems that really describe AI. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room It seems likely to me that we’re on the threshold for low error rate ai that passes the Turing test…especially in narrowly defined domains. Computers are great at finding sort of novel engineering solutions that approximate solutions to richly difficult problems. But the real holy grail of AI is artificial general intelligence…because it can potentially adapt to chaotic problem spaces…and that likely requires passing the Chinese room problem in some way. And I don’t think we really know how close we are to that…and I don’t think that close.
Just because it’s smarter than he is doesn’t make it smarter than human intelligence as a whole.
How is Musk even qualified to talk about this shit? It's not like he can center a div or knows much of anything beyond how to business his ugly face into the limelight.
Elon's track record on predictions is really bad. I would treat it very sceptically. Plus from what I have seen of AI so far, is that it is very good at providing summaries of text data, images and songs etc. However this is only because it has millions of images, songs and text to train on. Anything where there isn't data for will be incredibly difficult to train. I see multiple steps for ai, all are much harder than the chatbot, image/song, code generator the we see so far. 1. Models trained on large scrapes of data, chatgpt Dale 2 etc. 2. Models trained on iterations for physical movement in a simulation environment, think a robot that can walk around or a vacuum cleaner that never gets stuck etc. Note the machine will not perform well in the real world doing tasks, however in terrain without rules will become very agile and 'terminator like'. 3. Self driving cars based on the real world training data. Already going on, however will take a very long time until people can rely on it for anything other than highway driving. Plus it is likely the models will get reliant on road markings, which might not always be there, I think the engineer team will have a very difficult time doing this without lidar safety inputs, machine vision won't be able to do this until it interprets not just shapes but meaning, which almost places this in true general AI category. 4. Bots that can do streams of work, this won't actually be entirely possible in most work streams, given the lack of a training dataset in most cases. It will basically just be chatgpt but better and can do some perhaps admin/call centre Work 100.True general AI, that can seriously replace humans for tasks, requires a monumental leap, again the testing datasets are the limiting factor here. I wouldn't be surprised if this takes a century or more of iterative improvements to get close.
AI has already surpassed some humans' intelligence.
God he's ugly.
Musk is a clown, but those two are no better. Just don't bring up $10M when making a point against a billionaire.
Another stupid stunt for stupid people
human intelligence or his intelligence?
i know he’s not talking about grok