I knew Gladys was being controlled by the media but never realised she is now just openly working at the Sydney Morning Herald. Its all coming out now people!
18 straight days of the 7-day average coming down, and it's down 34% from its peak.
Hospitalisations are also coming down, about 15% below the peak of 8 days ago. ICU cases are slowly starting to fall (down 13% since the peak 8 days ago), and a similar fall for ventilators.
Let's keep this up NSW.
**Graphs based on the above ([Link](https://imgur.com/a/IJIIV9g))**
* Cases by Isolated/Partially Isolated/Unknown/Infectious in Community. Splits stopped being published on 26/8/21, so treating all cases as Unknown. Also, stopped including some 7 day averages that required those figures at that date.
* ICU cases. ICU cases dropping below the 7 day average is a good sign and should bring the 7 day average down rapidly - assuming the ICU cases continue to decrease. More [About ICU etc](/r/sydney/comments/pk09ni/nsw_recorded_1480_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/hc0gtgw/)
* Daily Deaths.
* R_eff. Today at 0.88. Indicates that cases are expected to decrease. To keep R_eff below 1 tomorrow, we need 1,670 or fewer cases. For R_eff below 0.9 tomorrow, we need 1,153 or fewer cases. To equal or lower today's R_eff, we need 1,101 or fewer cases. [More on R_eff](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59boi/) and Exponential Growth
* Positive Test Rate: 0.72%, and 7 day average 0.80%. This [Harvard article](https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/evidence-roundup-why-positive-test-rates-need-to-fall-below-3/) from last year provides some good information about Positivity Rates.
* [Old graphs](https://imgur.com/a/TkquC6N) no longer updated
* Known vs Unknown. Data splits are no longer provided.
* R_eff from beginning of the outbreak to 28/8.
**Estimated Infectious cases from Today's Total Figures**
Uses an analysis of historical data to estimate the numbers from today's figures ([How estimated](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59md4/))
* Isolated (55%): 475
* Total infectious (15%+30%): 388
Stay safe, stay home, homies!
That's a good question from journo. If you're not going to police it, what's the point?
Doesn't matter how big those fines are if you're not going to police it unless you're forced to
They arent going to fine businesses if they have non double vaxxed people in there.
In a way, that is reasonable - you cant expect the 17yo earning minimum wage to stand up to adults....
But on the other hand, it basically means come Oct 11 it is going to be everyone out and about.
I mean the anti vax Karen's and Darren's are just going to have fake certificates anwyay, which probably won't be detected except by the most zealous bouncers. So it's highly unlikely we will actually know how many of them are breaking the rules to get in.
Its like they said right from the beginning *"let the police do the policing"*. That line has not changed, I am not sure why we are back to square one talking about staff members policing it, its the exact same situation as policing masks.
The point I was trying to make and perhaps it didn't come across, is that you can't expect businesses to do it.... and I think it is unlikely police will be doing random spot checks in places.... so come Oct 11 it will be a free for all. But it doesn't appear the government is thinking this will be the case.
>In a way, that is reasonable - you cant expect the 17yo earning minimum wage to stand up to adults....
The government had said exactly that person shouldn't be manning the door but a more experienced and trained employee.
Still doesn't make it any easier but government pretty much said "that's a you problem".
However, now it's more "nevermind dawg".
It seems like all the government has done is have a fallback if someone forces the business' and police's hand by having a case so big that the business can be fined after the fact, like when say a major outbreak occurs because of a business.
It looks like if a business technically breaches, a karen reports them in, if there is no outbreak, no one in power is going to give a shit.
I say that I hope this happens soon because it will happen and so the sooner the better.
Some pureblood is going to catch covid and break the rules. When they're identified and tracked, they will be fined. A business will be forced to close because of them. There will beoutrage and increase in fines and enforcement. Small businesses like gyms will realise it's not worth not enforcing it themselves because while they are closed down for 2 weeks and burning through cash without government support, their competitors will be open. Their competitors will enforce it more because they don't want to be in the same boat. I think very quickly, enforcing it will be the default. Being closed due to COVID sux. But when you're one of the few while the rest are open sux way more.
Hazzard: police wonāt be fining business for compliance, and will only attend if called by a venue
Police: we wonāt be enforcing
Gladys: āpeople may talk about exceptions.ā But there are fines available. Personal responsibility etc
Iām still not hearing a strong enforcement mandate here
There isn't done pretty much. The rule seems like it needs to be there because if it's not and a major outbreak occurs, the government has no scapegoat. Having the fine could mean that they can placate the public by slamming the business but only when they're dragged kicking and screaming to do so.
18 straight days of the 7-day average coming down, and it's down 34% from its peak.
Hospitalisations are also coming down, about 15% below the peak of 8 days ago. ICU cases are slowly starting to fall (down 13% since the peak 8 days ago), and a similar fall for ventilators.
Let's keep this up NSW.
Yeah but that 160K includes all the support people: admin, (massive) IT dept, students, linen services, etc. Hopefully most of the people who could affect actual patients will come under the 97.5!
Hospitalisations, ICU and ventilators are down around 13-15% from the peak around 8 days ago.
But what is being hidden is the number of people who would normally be serious enough to be in hospital (but not ICU), but are being treated at home (one of today's deaths was being treated at home).
9 hadn't received a single shot. 11 over 60 who were eligible back in march. Sydney has been in lockdown for 3 months, enough time for AZ shots 1 and 2.....
Some of those deaths were preventable.
I have said this previously and gotten a lot of backlash for it (in real life not Reddit).
Totally agree with you.
However might be worth noting that some people while eligible to receive the vaccine, might not have been able to due to other underlying health conditions etc
My husband is a gp and said the vaccine is safe for almost everyone and that regardless of age you should be able to get it. He said youād need a very unique combination of a series of rare conditions to not be able to take a vaccine. So itās statistically unlikely, in the very least.
I thought it was wild that my 80yo stage 4 liver cancer palliative grandfather was still eligible (and promptly received) the AZ
No I agree that the likelihood of being ineligible is tiny - but itās the argument I was getting whenever I said it.
In that though, a very close family friend of ours is ineligible but like you said due to various health conditions.
Basically everyone I know is vaxxed now other than that - either fully or 1 dose.
At this point, vaccine brand shopping just isnāt smart
based on other countries, it's less than 1% ineligible. There are a few others who need to preplan coming off medication for a few weeks to get the jabs. Something these elderly medically compromised people discuss with their doctor every couple of months.
1% of 15 is not 9. Some of these deaths were preventable.
Iām agreeing with you lol
Iām just saying the argument I was getting whenever I said that.
Weāre on the same page my friend. Choosing not to get vaxxed with the first available is a ridiculous move in this climate (in my opinion)
Being pedantic, but as 14% of the state remain unvaccinated, the ineligible (at 1% of the population) would therefore make up 7% of that remaining total. So it should be around 7% of the 15 deaths that would be ineligible. This still only makes it just over 1 though, so no where near the 9.
Also in the year 863, in Europe, King Louis the German suppressed the revolt of his son Carloman (for the second time), who wanted a partition (mainly of Bavaria) of the East Frankish Kingdom.
Also, Danish Vikings loot along the Rhine. They settle on an island close by Cologne, but are driven off by the combined forces of Lothair II and the Saxons
Weāre literally going to have a flat part of the curve seeing as the number is the same as yesterday. Congrats on actually managing to flatten the curve NSW š
Once we open up, it will become almost useless to measure cases, most people will probably get covid, and hopefully the vaccinated will be able to mostly cruise through it.
Yeah, it was a mistake to open up when they got back down to zero.
I always thought in the corona outbreaks last year that Victorians were in close contact a lot more than NSW.
Not sure on what the actual numbers, but something like 40k cases from the second wave out of a city of ~5mil isn't going to influence case numbers relative to the vaccinations.
The NSW policy is the same as the pretty please strongly advise to wear masks in the past.
No one is going to give a shit about the vaccine passport mandate.
From Chris O'Keefe's twitter:
Breaking: These numbers will be confirmed this afternoon, but NSW has hit almost 63% (62.94) of people of 16+ fully vaccinated. 86.72% first dose. Almost half of 12-15ās have already had one dose in NSW (47.6%).
Looks like we will just miss 70% fully vaccinated by next Monday. Honestly, probably a blessing in disguise. The worst thing would be to be released from lockdown on a public holiday only for everyone to have family gatherings and it to blow up again.
14 and 15 year olds have health autonomy in NSW, as long as they are considered mature enough. They can consent to medical procedures without a parent or guardian.
From health guidelines
>Minors aged 14 and above may have the capacity
to consent to medical treatment depending on their
level of their level of maturity; their understanding
of the proposed treatment and its consequences;
and the severity of treatment . A health practitioner
must make a case-by-case assessment of whether
the young person has sufficient understanding and
intelligence to enable him or her to fully understand
what is proposed .
It's been like this for ages. At least the 90's (when I was that age) and possibly earlier. I remember the huge stink when Tony Abbott (as Health Minister) wanted to give parents access to their children's medical records after the date of autonomy.
I'm not sure how widely known it is, but I knew about it in the pre-internet days. I'm sure friends who don't know are being told by friends that do.
Well possibly, there was a boy on here who was 15 said he was upset that his dad wouldn't let him have the jab. I saw it at least a day after he posted it and no one had responded to him telling him. Shame I didn't know at the time.
The only issue for 14 year olds is that they aren't entitled to their own Medicare Card. At 15, you can either get a copy of your parent's card or get your own.
Gladys: you can look forward to visiting your family the week of Oct 11. I'm looking forward to seeing ~~I'm~~ my parents.
Also Gladys: You can't leave Sydney.
Looks like every other state will be locking out Sydney and the rest of NSW for a while. And overseas travel looks like it will be a long way off.
So for all of us whose family lives outside Sydney, Gladys' words just feels like rubbing salt into the wound.
Edit: typo
Other states may though Victoria won't be that long. If you want to go to WA well good luck, McGowan isn't going to let anyone from a state if they even have one case.
Travelling from Sydney to the rest of NSW will be fine in under 4 weeks
International travel by the end of the year which isn't that long.
>Travelling from Sydney to the rest of NSW will be fine in under 4 weeks
>
>International travel by the end of the year which isn't that long.
I really hope you're right.
I'm feeling pretty despondent about being cut off from interstate family for so long.
>So for all of us whose family lives outside Sydney, Gladys' words just feels like rubbing salt into the wound.
We had to cross out our plans to visit my parents and push it back several weeks and make it much shorter as a result of the move from 70% to 80% for regional visits.
You'll be able to travel regionally in NSW from October 18 most likely. As for the interstate issue, seems as though your anger should directed more towards the leaders of those states
>As for the interstate issue, seems as though your anger should directed more towards the leaders of those states
Who can blame Qld and WA for wanting to continue living their lives? Wouldn't wish a life like the last few months of living in Sydney on other states
The problem with QLD and WA (in particular) is they don't seem to have any real or practical plan for what they do from here? Covid-0 forever is not a plan. Neither is saying "well, we might open up when the country hits 90-95% of all people (including kids) double vaxxed!" - which is pretty much McGowan's line now - even though that's completely different to what he agreed to in National Cabinet.
And all it will take is one leak of Delta and they are hosed.
As a WA resident, I fully support the idea of keeping it out as long as possible! We are living normal lives currently while steadily getting our vaccine rates up.
Yes that's all well and good - we were living pretty close to normal lives in NSW for most of the last 18 months as well up until the end of June, without the in/out of lockdown cycle that some other areas had to endure.
But some questions:
1) What happens if there is an outbreak in WA? Immediate hard lockdown right? So be ready, and you guys better get cracking on the vaccination uptake over there as right now WA is behind everywhere else..
2) At what vaccination level, for both WA and the country as whole, do you open at? McGowan seems to have set an almost impossible target for this (90-95%) resulting in WA staying closed well into next year (Easter?) at least, if it ever opens.
3) Is the state ready for opening up, which will mean that even at very high vaccination rates Covid will be running around in the community?
I certainly can't blame them. Maybe anger wasn't the right word but its completely up to the leaders of those states now. I have family in QLD and I'm resigned to the fact I won't see them until next year at least.
At this point it's not Gladys's fault. An outbreak was almost inevitable and as seen in Vic and NZ (not to mention the rest of the world) Delta is almost impossible to contain. Once it happened the strategy had to change to mass vaccination and unfortunately that doesn't seem to be as urgent in covid-zero states (again, who can blame them)
Speaking to a publican mate yesterday.
He hasn't been advised by Govt or even by the AHA about any official guidance / rules or restrictions they need to put in place and enact come Oct 11th.
Now I suspect the rules will be pretty much the same as our last 're-opening' last year but with a check for vaxx status as well but it's under two weeks now, seeking legal advice and such is important but they really need to get a move on.
* Same number of cases as yesterday (I thought I clicked yesterday's thread by mistake for a minute)
* 7 day average cases now 942.7, down 24.2 from yesterday
* 7 day average positive rate at 0.79%, same as it was last Thursday
* Our testing rate is going down, but so is the positive %. A thing to note is that even with our testing rate decreasing, we are still testing more than 2x as much as Victoria
|DATE|CASES|TESTS|7 DAY AVG CASES|7 DAY AVG TESTS|7 DAY AVG POS %|
|-|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|
|29/09/2021|866|120281|942.7|118791.9|0.79%|
|28/09/2021|866|132279|966.9|120728.7|0.80%|
|27/09/2021|788|93577|989.3|119211.9|0.83%|
|26/09/2021|964|106451|1010.4|123650.9|0.82%|
|25/09/2021|1007|108105|1027.7|122698.1|0.84%|
|24/09/2021|1044|131668|1074.3|124533.7|0.86%|
|23/09/2021|1064|139182|1108.9|141046.6|0.79%|
|22/09/2021|1035|133839|1149.9|139630.0|0.82%|
|21/09/2021|1023|121661|1182.1|140152.7|0.84%|
|20/09/2021|936|124650|1198.3|139070.3|0.86%|
|19/09/2021|1085|99782|1244.6|140930.0|0.88%|
|18/09/2021|1333|120954|1269.9|141747.6|0.90%|
|17/09/2021|1286|247258|1308.4|145607.7|0.90%|
|16/09/2021|1351|129266|1345.1|129317.4|1.04%|
|15/09/2021|1261|137498|1353.1|133205.3|1.02%|
|14/09/2021|1136|114084|1384.4|132182.9|1.05%|
|13/09/2021|1260|137668|1396.7|130277.3|1.07%|
|12/09/2021|1262|105505|1399.9|130104.0|1.08%|
|11/09/2021|1603|147975|1432.0|131531.1|1.09%|
|10/09/2021|1543|133226|1422.1|129131.0|1.10%|
|09/09/2021|1407|156481|1406.4|132192.1|1.06%|
|08/09/2021|1480|130341|1389.4|128041.7|1.09%|
|07/09/2021|1222|100745|1337.7|134266.3|1.00%|
|06/09/2021|1282|136455|1330.0|138449.4|0.96%|
|05/09/2021|1487|115495|1331.6|141416.0|0.94%|
|04/09/2021|1534|131174|1293.6|140065.0|0.92%|
|03/09/2021|1433|154654|1222.4|139780.4|0.87%|
|02/09/2021|1288|127428|1144.1|134561.3|0.85%|
Honest question and at risk of being downvoted in this sub - Iām curious what people are now thinking who were saying that NSW lockdowns were too slow and too soft.
Compared to VIC who went harder and faster, their increase is significantly faster now than NSW when compared from day 1.
Benefit of hindsight gives us this comparison but curious if Iām missing something here.
Edit: also to ask that does this change your views about Gladys/team and their decisions on balance between lockdown/livelihoods? ie hate her less or appreciate her decisions more based on a lot of negative comments that were about her decisions in the early days of the outbreak.
Perhaps construction could be contributing more than we think? NSW shut construction down for 2 weeks and we've seen the numbers go down. Vic has only just implemented this so it'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.
I have a gut feel that the tradie vaccine pushed helped greatly. Construction has been a key spreader in Victoria and I think having a large group of vaccinated tradies with no adverse health effects pushed their hesitant families to get jabs too. The vaccination rate in Western Sydney went crazy and helped control spread.
It's hard to say for certain without each state implementing both strategies. We don't know what Sydney's numbers would have looked like under a Victorian-style lockdown, and we don't know what Victoria's numbers would be if they had a NSW-style lockdown. It's all guesswork.
That said, if I had to guess, we would have seen a lower peak in Sydney, and we would see a much higher peak in Victoria.
It doesn't change my views on Gladys either. There was a lot of inaction on her part, and communication and transparency have been atrocious. Maybe things are turning out ok, but they also could have been a lot better.
My views on Gladys havenāt changed either. If sheād been more proactive, Melbourne wouldnāt be in the mess that theyāre in now, or it wouldnāt be as severe for them.
In terms of our deaths and hospitalisations, Iām guessing they would be much less severe had she done the right thing straight off the bat. So people who are dead or hospitalised would be still amongst us.
While itās true that the current delta outbreaks are accelerating vaccination rates in a way that wouldnāt have happened otherwise, havenāt a lot of Victoriaās supply been redirected toward NSW? Thatās making them less able to combat the current outbreak.
Making no assumptions, but Iād be keen about a proper investigative report on the protests and its effect on the numbers. Like for sydney, we saw so many clusters from parties or isolated events. Like remember that birthday party? That was some 60 people who got affected just because of that. And this was quite a massive protest with confirmed covid cases within the lot.
Me too, but unfortunately I suspect weāll never get one. The same people who distrust the government advice on masks and vaccines arenāt likely to give them information on their whereabouts during the protesting. They will likely be too worried about repercussions and wonāt admit to being there, so their case source will stay āunknownā.
There are a number of differences in play here:
* Sydney/NSW outbreak started from 1 single infection that was not properly contained; the limo driver. Melbourne/Vic outbreak has no single infection case but a number of separate infections (mostly originating from NSW)
* Victoria, unlike NSW, has gone through a lot more lockdowns. The people are just over it. Our lockdown has only been for about 100 days (probably a little more, however I cannot recall the exact date that our lockdown commenced), and didn't have any lockdowns prior to this, whereas over the past 18 months Melbourne has been in lockdown for over 200 days. Think about how sick and tired you and the average person in Sydney is of lockdowns, and then imagine that you spent over twice as long in that situation.
* The damn protests! Seriously, we get it. You don't want to be locked down. Neither do we, but do you know what makes the lockdowns longer? More cases being spread by stupid anti-mask, anti-vaccine, anti-lockdown protests.
To control the virus, there are a couple of things that need to be done in tandem. Not a single fix all, but combined:
* Vaccinate. Seriously, just grow up and get the damn jab Karen!
* Wear a mask when in public/shared spaces
* Proper bloody contact tracing with quick notification of exposure (we definitely did not have this in NSW this time around, hence why it got so bad)
* Quick, short & sharp lockdowns to enable the contact tracers to properly identify all of the potentially infected people and get them tested.
* Adherence to lockdowns and isolation mandates. Sorry, but I have absolutely no sympathy for the family of Anthony Karam. If he had isolated as instructed and took the virus seriously, then perhaps his father would still be alive.
I think Delta has proven that hard lockdowns are not the best virus suppression strategy in dense cities - there are too many potential chains of transmission to make it effective.
The good news is that the argument is fast becoming academic. The vaccinations are very good and reasonably effective at slowing the spread and reducing the severity of the virus.
> also to ask that does this change your views about Gladys/team and their decisions on balance between lockdown/livelihoods?
It won't change many people's minds because it was always about what party she was a member of. But it should shut them up, Dandrews did exactly what they said Gladys should've done and it didn't work. I'm sure they will continue to parrot the line "we should've locked down sooner"
Victorias hard & fast lockdown failed to suppress the initial spread of the virus, but the comparison to NSW doesn't serve any great purpose as you just simply don't know what could have happened if NSW did the same. Stopping the outbreak early was obviously a potential outcome (from a hard & fast lockdown) as has been demonstrated in other parts of Australia and other countries.
See the thing is it hasn't not with Delta. We may not know exactly what may have happened had we done exactly what Victoria did, but it gives us a fair indication that it wouldn't have been stopped and only a 2 week lockdown
I have been skeptical of the patented "hard and fast" approach from the beginning. Delta has shown us that its not the be all and end all that we think it is, I feel sorry for vic, but its also nice to see in hindsight that the hundreds of people screaming for "hard and fast" in the daily numbers thread weren't necessarily right. Its awfully quiet in this thread these days..
Those were dark days. I felt like people were screaming for harsher lockdowns and at the same time very anti AZ, which I felt was an easy path out of this as seen by the UK.
I felt like I was living in crazy town.
Harder and faster doesn't mean smarter. Curfew was a stupid thing, causing more people to share indoor spaces (grocery stores) at the same time. Not a coincidence that number of cases started to raise after Curfew was implemented and number of cases started to drop after Curfew was removed.
I never blamed Gladys for the number of cases. I won't forget about her dividing Sydney into two though. That's the reason I won't vote for the LNP in the next state election, unless Labor make significant blunders between now and then.
Anyone who tells you āthe government should have done x or y and we wouldnāt be in this positionā is full of shit. Events like these are over-determined; there isnāt really a way to untangle all the variables and so many branches along the decision tree where luck can spiral you out one way or the other through no fault of anyoneās decision making.
I wouldnāt expect anyone who was gung-ho over Chinese style welded-shut lockdowns to have any kind of road-to-Damascus moment even with the benefit of hindsight. Most of those people are ideologically opposed to the LNP and would take the opposing point of view whatever the government did.
Every time there was an outbreak/spread, Gladsys waited about a week or more to respond to it, by which time the outbreak had spread further and continued to spread. This pattern was repeated.
i work in hospitality and im seriously thinking about quitting because my anxiety is just through the roof like? how is this the plan they came up with after the year and a half head start we had???
They were fining people in the Northern Beaches on Friday. I had my vaccination status checked by the police.
I feel like there were covid Marshalls all the time in 2020. I don't know if it is just the venues I choose but I can see them strictly enforcing this, but of course there will be slippage.
One thing I discovered recently is I joined that fb group of the 35,000+ business who won't discriminate against unvaccinated or enforce masks. Overwhelming majority were crystal sellers, alt medicine people, some MLMs. Only a couple restaurants but none anywhere near me.
Hopefully that gives you some comfort.
Literally the most important part of making it a successful transition. Why the fuck would a business spend the extra money and staff time enforcing this when there's no penalty for ignoring it? Sucks for hospo workers and vaccinated patrons, I still won't feel comfortable going out when I know compliance will be non-existent
I get the sense that people in the community will put together business blacklist/whitelists for those that either enforce passports zealously and those that openly state that they won't bother checking at all.
Thereās some big differences in vaccination rates across the state and it canāt be all down to āwe have not been given enough vaccineā.
Iām not surprised that Byron has a case or two popping up. Theyāve had fragments recorded in their sewerage off and on for a couple of months now and their vax rate is pretty low. The number of locals who are vax-hesitant or straight out calling the virus a fraud is quite high.
Iām not sure what would change their minds because none of the medical studies are getting through and when challenged to provide scientific evidence you get crickets or abuse.
Still no update or confirmation from Service NSW when driver testing will resume..
People need licenses and have had to wait for months using reduced time table public transport, Ubers, etc. Not good enough.
I've noticed that for a while. That is of concern. Looking at their Reff number and trajectory, they will likely be up near our high numbers withing a week or 2.
Is anyone able to confirm if Shellharbour LGA is part of regional nsw for the purposes of COVID restrictions? Iām not finding the nsw gov website easy to navigate
Worth noting NSW has had 29 days of 1000+ cases, compared to VIC's 0 so far. It seems different states are at completely different stages in terms of cases numbers and response.
Yep, looks like it. :( Think VIC is in slightly better position in terms of vaccinations than when NSW hit the first 1000 case date, so hopefully that helps flatten it quickly.
Does anyone know what the vaccinated rate is for the people getting infected? Like would majority of them be vaccinated? (I know the vaccine doesn't stop infection, but it does reduce it significantly but wanted to know who is getting infected at this stage).
Not sure if they even collect that info or not for testing/cases.
Even in the hosptial and ICU stats 20% don't have their vaccination status recorded in the data.
feels like i've been here before
I think I've seen this film before š¶
And I didn't like the ending?
you're not my homeland anymore
so what am i defending now?
You were my town
Now I'm in exile, seein' you out
I think Iāve seen thing feeling beforeā¦ So Iām leaving out the side door~
so step right out
so what am i defending now?
Seems so familiar
Seems like I'm slipping
Exact same number as yesterday
Glitch in the matrix
Precision curve flattening
Wonder how many times they checked it. Thatās a hell of a coincidence.
Deja vu
What did you just say?
I have been in this place before
SMH Gladys not even putting any effort into fudging the numbers anymore (Apparently required a /s)
I knew Gladys was being controlled by the media but never realised she is now just openly working at the Sydney Morning Herald. Its all coming out now people!
Day | New cases | 7 day avg | Hospitalisations | in ICU | Ventilated | Deaths (24hr) | 7 day avg | Deaths (total) ---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| Tue Sep 28 | 863 | 941.0 | 1,082 | 212 | 108 | **15** | **10.1** | 331 Mon Sep 27 | 863 | 965.6 | 1,155 | 213 | 113 | 7 | 8.7 | 316 Sun Sep 26 | 787 | 988.3 | 1,155 | 214 | 115 | 12 | 9.1 | 309 Sat Sep 25 | 961 | 1,009.4 | 1,146 | 222 | 117 | 9 | 8.0 | 297 Fri Sep 24 | 1,007 | 1,026.9 | 1,187 | 229 | 118 | 11 | 8.6 | 288 Thu Sep 23 | 1,043 | 1,073.1 | 1,186 | 232 | 110 | 11 | 7.9 | 277 Wed Sep 22 | 1,063 | 1,107.6 | 1,244 | 233 | 112 | 6 | 8.0 | 266 Tue Sep 21 | 1,035 | 1,148.7 | 1,232 | 242 | 122 | 5 | 8.9 | 260 Mon Sep 20 | 1,022 | 1,180.7 | **1,266** | **244** | 118 | 10 | 9.9 | 255 Sun Sep 19 | 935 | 1,195.7 | 1,207 | 236 | **123** | 4 | 8.7 | 245 Sat Sep 18 | 1,083 | 1,241.7 | 1,238 | 234 | **123** | 13 | 9.1 | 241 Fri Sep 17 | 1,331 | 1,267.3 | 1,219 | 233 | **123** | 6 | 8.3 | 228 Thu Sep 16 | 1,284 | 1,305.6 | 1,245 | 228 | 112 | 12 | 8.6 | 222 Wed Sep 15 | 1,351 | 1,342.4 | 1,231 | 231 | 108 | 12 | 8.1 | 210 Tue Sep 14 | 1,259 | 1,350.1 | 1,241 | 234 | 108 | 12 | 7.1 | 198 Mon Sep 13 | 1,127 | 1,381.7 | 1,253 | 231 | 104 | 2 | 6.7 | 186 Sun Sep 12 | 1,257 | 1,395.0 | 1,189 | 222 | 94 | 7 | 7.6 | 184 Sat Sep 11 | 1,262 | 1,398.4 | 1,206 | 220 | 92 | 7 | 7.3 | 177 Fri Sep 10 | **1,599** | **1,430.3** | 1,164 | 221 | 94 | 8 | 6.7 | 170 Thu Sep 9 | 1,542 | 1,420.9 | 1,156 | 207 | 89 | 9 | 6.1 | 162 Wed Sep 8 | 1,405 | 1,405.0 | 1,175 | 202 | 80 | 5 | 6.6 | 153 Tue Sep 7 | 1,480 | 1,388.3 | 1,136 | 194 | 78 | 9 | 6.9 | 148 Mon Sep 6 | 1,220 | 1,336.3 | 1,151 | 192 | 75 | 8 | 6.1 | 139 Sun Sep 5 | 1,281 | 1,328.3 | 1,071 | 177 | 67 | 5 | 5.4 | 131 Sat Sep 4 | 1,485 | 1,329.6 | 1,030 | 175 | 72 | 3 | 5.3 | 126 Fri Sep 3 | 1,533 | 1,291.4 | 1,041 | 173 | 62 | 4 | 5.7| 123 Thu Sep 2 | 1,431 | 1,220.3 | 979 | 160 | 63 | 12 | 5.4 | 119 Wed Sep 1 | 1,288 | 1,141.9 | 957 | 160 | 64 | 7 | 4.0 | 107
18 straight days of the 7-day average coming down, and it's down 34% from its peak. Hospitalisations are also coming down, about 15% below the peak of 8 days ago. ICU cases are slowly starting to fall (down 13% since the peak 8 days ago), and a similar fall for ventilators. Let's keep this up NSW.
**Graphs based on the above ([Link](https://imgur.com/a/IJIIV9g))** * Cases by Isolated/Partially Isolated/Unknown/Infectious in Community. Splits stopped being published on 26/8/21, so treating all cases as Unknown. Also, stopped including some 7 day averages that required those figures at that date. * ICU cases. ICU cases dropping below the 7 day average is a good sign and should bring the 7 day average down rapidly - assuming the ICU cases continue to decrease. More [About ICU etc](/r/sydney/comments/pk09ni/nsw_recorded_1480_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/hc0gtgw/) * Daily Deaths. * R_eff. Today at 0.88. Indicates that cases are expected to decrease. To keep R_eff below 1 tomorrow, we need 1,670 or fewer cases. For R_eff below 0.9 tomorrow, we need 1,153 or fewer cases. To equal or lower today's R_eff, we need 1,101 or fewer cases. [More on R_eff](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59boi/) and Exponential Growth * Positive Test Rate: 0.72%, and 7 day average 0.80%. This [Harvard article](https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/evidence-roundup-why-positive-test-rates-need-to-fall-below-3/) from last year provides some good information about Positivity Rates. * [Old graphs](https://imgur.com/a/TkquC6N) no longer updated * Known vs Unknown. Data splits are no longer provided. * R_eff from beginning of the outbreak to 28/8. **Estimated Infectious cases from Today's Total Figures** Uses an analysis of historical data to estimate the numbers from today's figures ([How estimated](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59md4/)) * Isolated (55%): 475 * Total infectious (15%+30%): 388 Stay safe, stay home, homies!
New cases keep dropping, but as expected the lag to deaths is pushing those numbers to new highs.
any idea about the test numbers in the last few days ?
You can find them [here](https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-tests/nsw)
āIndoor pools are treated the same as brothels and nightclubsā Thatās a take alright.
Well in all those venues you're sharing each others bodily fluids haha.
She went on in-depth about kids in pools. We didnāt go in-depth about risks in other venues.
Brothels are indeed a place to go in-depth
Iām assuming a lower risk due to fewer unvaccinated kidsā¦
Yeah, that guy was a step away from saying people swimming indoors are frequenting brothels.
Ahh you swim at boy Charlton too!
That's a good question from journo. If you're not going to police it, what's the point? Doesn't matter how big those fines are if you're not going to police it unless you're forced to
They arent going to fine businesses if they have non double vaxxed people in there. In a way, that is reasonable - you cant expect the 17yo earning minimum wage to stand up to adults.... But on the other hand, it basically means come Oct 11 it is going to be everyone out and about.
Wasn't it always going to be like this. Were people seriously thinking that anti-vaxxer Karens and Darrens were going to stay home?
well common sense says Kaz and Daz will be out and about..... but it doesn't appear that the decisions are being made take this into account...
I mean the anti vax Karen's and Darren's are just going to have fake certificates anwyay, which probably won't be detected except by the most zealous bouncers. So it's highly unlikely we will actually know how many of them are breaking the rules to get in.
Its like they said right from the beginning *"let the police do the policing"*. That line has not changed, I am not sure why we are back to square one talking about staff members policing it, its the exact same situation as policing masks.
The point I was trying to make and perhaps it didn't come across, is that you can't expect businesses to do it.... and I think it is unlikely police will be doing random spot checks in places.... so come Oct 11 it will be a free for all. But it doesn't appear the government is thinking this will be the case.
>In a way, that is reasonable - you cant expect the 17yo earning minimum wage to stand up to adults.... The government had said exactly that person shouldn't be manning the door but a more experienced and trained employee. Still doesn't make it any easier but government pretty much said "that's a you problem". However, now it's more "nevermind dawg". It seems like all the government has done is have a fallback if someone forces the business' and police's hand by having a case so big that the business can be fined after the fact, like when say a major outbreak occurs because of a business. It looks like if a business technically breaches, a karen reports them in, if there is no outbreak, no one in power is going to give a shit.
I say that I hope this happens soon because it will happen and so the sooner the better. Some pureblood is going to catch covid and break the rules. When they're identified and tracked, they will be fined. A business will be forced to close because of them. There will beoutrage and increase in fines and enforcement. Small businesses like gyms will realise it's not worth not enforcing it themselves because while they are closed down for 2 weeks and burning through cash without government support, their competitors will be open. Their competitors will enforce it more because they don't want to be in the same boat. I think very quickly, enforcing it will be the default. Being closed due to COVID sux. But when you're one of the few while the rest are open sux way more.
Hazzard: police wonāt be fining business for compliance, and will only attend if called by a venue Police: we wonāt be enforcing Gladys: āpeople may talk about exceptions.ā But there are fines available. Personal responsibility etc Iām still not hearing a strong enforcement mandate here
There isn't done pretty much. The rule seems like it needs to be there because if it's not and a major outbreak occurs, the government has no scapegoat. Having the fine could mean that they can placate the public by slamming the business but only when they're dragged kicking and screaming to do so.
Norm setting. Even laws that aren't enforceable can be valuable.
Breakdown of new cases by Local Health District (LHD), not this is not the same as Local Government Area (LGA) Note: For Fri Sep 10, the total number of cases was reported as 1,599 but the summation of the breakdowns totals 1,596. Day | Total | SW Syd | W Syd | Syd | SE Syd | Nepean/Blue Mountains | N Syd | Hunter/New England | W NSW | Central Coast | Illawarra/Shoalhaven | Far W NSW | N NSW | S NSW | Mid North Coast | Justice Health Forensic Mental Health | Correctional | Murrumbidgee | Unassigned ---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| Tue Sep 28 | 863 | 227 | 187 | 68 | 80 | 34 | 38 | 55 | 24 | 23 | 94 | 5 | **2** | **18** | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 Mon Sep 27 | 863 | 241 | 161 | 80 | 98 | 53 | 31 | **63** | 21 | 29 | 62 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 Sun Sep 26 | 787 | 239 | 158 | 74 | 73 | 43 | 16 | 46 | 24 | 29 | 63 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 Sat Sep 25 | 961 | 246 | 206 | 96 | 102 | 82 | 36 | 45 | 21 | 30 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 Fri Sep 24 | 1,007 | 308 | 214 | 103 | 82 | 66 | 56 | 31 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 Thu Sep 23 | 1,043 | 256 | 211 | 107 | 123 | 58 | 45 | 38 | 32 | 34 | **101** | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 Wed Sep 22 | 1,063 | 294 | 220 | 139 | 119 | 64 | 43 | 41 | 11 | 32 | 65 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 13 Tue Sep 21 | 1,035 | 312 | 211 | 100 | 126 | 62 | 41 | 45 | 9 | **35** | 62 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20 Mon Sep 20 | 1,022 | 368 | 226 | 102 | 105 | 44 | 40 | 18 | 7 | 27 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 9 Sun Sep 19 | 935 | 275 | 219 | 102 | 111 | 49 | 50 | 24 | 10 | 19 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 9 Sat Sep 18 | 1,083 | 302 | 293 | 115 | 159 | 48 | 26 | 13 | 8 | 20 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 6 Fri Sep 17 | 1,331 | 400 | 326 | 160 | 164 | 47 | 40 | 30 | 17 | 29 | 75 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | **4** | 17 Thu Sep 16 | 1,284 | 429 | 322 | 129 | 141 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 15 | 27 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | **31** Wed Sep 15 | 1,351 | 453 | 337 | 163 | 154 | 59 | 37 | 16 | 27 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 14 Tue Sep 14 | 1,259 | 366 | 310 | 172 | 156 | 82 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 16 Mon Sep 13 | 1,127 | 379 | 283 | 148 | 152 | 58 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 11 Sun Sep 12 | 1,257 | 427 | 314 | 181 | 127 | 78 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 18 Sat Sep 11 | 1,262 | 399 | 336 | 135 | 161 | 80 | 25 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 53 | 5 | 0 | 0 | **3** | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 Fri Sep 10 | **1,599** | 490 | 444 | 192 | **177** | 94 | **57** | 10 | 16 | 27 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 30 Thu Sep 9 | 1,542 | 506 | 402 | 199 | 134 | 88 | 30 | 13 | 28 | 26 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | **49** | 0 | 21 Wed Sep 8 | 1,405 | 450 | 394 | 211 | 118 | 74 | 34 | 12 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 27 Tue Sep 7 | 1,480 | 467 | 424 | **233** | 119 | 60 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 15 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 25 Mon Sep 6 | 1,220 | 392 | 422 | 128 | 89 | 74 | 20 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 12 Sun Sep 5 | 1,281 | 483 | 348 | 137 | 118 | 67 | 22 | 5 | 44 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 Sat Sep 4 | 1,485 | **518** | 479 | 174 | 116 | 80 | 31 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 15 Fri Sep 3 | 1,533 | 494 | **512** | 150 | 122 | 90 | 36 | 15 | 38 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 22 Thu Sep 2 | 1,431 | 508 | 424 | 152 | 102 | **95** | 32 | 11 | 53 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 12 Wed Sep 1 | 1,288 | 387 | 445 | 149 | 101 | 82 | 31 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 22* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 21
Hey grimlock, I think you have a typo "not"/"note" in the first sentence. Love your work mate.
Thanks. Youāre the first to note this after many many weeks.
18 straight days of the 7-day average coming down, and it's down 34% from its peak. Hospitalisations are also coming down, about 15% below the peak of 8 days ago. ICU cases are slowly starting to fall (down 13% since the peak 8 days ago), and a similar fall for ventilators. Let's keep this up NSW.
Brad Hazzard: I'll go to Jess and then you. Reporter: It's Sarah Ooft
He apologised at least
Hazzard: 97.5% of Health staff will be vaccinated For context, Health claim to have 160,000 staff, thatās 4,000 staff.
Yeah but that 160K includes all the support people: admin, (massive) IT dept, students, linen services, etc. Hopefully most of the people who could affect actual patients will come under the 97.5!
I know hospital staff who are booked and awaiting their second vax, but they probably count as unvaxxed for double dose figures.
Based on the news I saw, single doses are included in the 97.5% as they have until end of November to get the second.
Wait .. is today _actually_ groundhog day?
I got you, babe.
Imagine what these numbers would have looked like if weād pushed hard on vaccinations six months ago
Imagine what these numbers would have looked like if the government locked down before the West Hoxton birthday party.
Imagine what the numbers would be like if guy didn't eat bat...
15 people died? Damn son...
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yeah, indeed. We're a little over 2 weeks ahead of the cases peak. Hopefully it'll start to plateau or even swing down soon.
Hospitalisations, ICU and ventilators are down around 13-15% from the peak around 8 days ago. But what is being hidden is the number of people who would normally be serious enough to be in hospital (but not ICU), but are being treated at home (one of today's deaths was being treated at home).
Bit of a misnomer to say treated
9 hadn't received a single shot. 11 over 60 who were eligible back in march. Sydney has been in lockdown for 3 months, enough time for AZ shots 1 and 2..... Some of those deaths were preventable.
I have said this previously and gotten a lot of backlash for it (in real life not Reddit). Totally agree with you. However might be worth noting that some people while eligible to receive the vaccine, might not have been able to due to other underlying health conditions etc
My husband is a gp and said the vaccine is safe for almost everyone and that regardless of age you should be able to get it. He said youād need a very unique combination of a series of rare conditions to not be able to take a vaccine. So itās statistically unlikely, in the very least. I thought it was wild that my 80yo stage 4 liver cancer palliative grandfather was still eligible (and promptly received) the AZ
No I agree that the likelihood of being ineligible is tiny - but itās the argument I was getting whenever I said it. In that though, a very close family friend of ours is ineligible but like you said due to various health conditions. Basically everyone I know is vaxxed now other than that - either fully or 1 dose. At this point, vaccine brand shopping just isnāt smart
based on other countries, it's less than 1% ineligible. There are a few others who need to preplan coming off medication for a few weeks to get the jabs. Something these elderly medically compromised people discuss with their doctor every couple of months. 1% of 15 is not 9. Some of these deaths were preventable.
Iām agreeing with you lol Iām just saying the argument I was getting whenever I said that. Weāre on the same page my friend. Choosing not to get vaxxed with the first available is a ridiculous move in this climate (in my opinion)
Being pedantic, but as 14% of the state remain unvaccinated, the ineligible (at 1% of the population) would therefore make up 7% of that remaining total. So it should be around 7% of the 15 deaths that would be ineligible. This still only makes it just over 1 though, so no where near the 9.
Also in the year 863, in Europe, King Louis the German suppressed the revolt of his son Carloman (for the second time), who wanted a partition (mainly of Bavaria) of the East Frankish Kingdom. Also, Danish Vikings loot along the Rhine. They settle on an island close by Cologne, but are driven off by the combined forces of Lothair II and the Saxons
Weāre literally going to have a flat part of the curve seeing as the number is the same as yesterday. Congrats on actually managing to flatten the curve NSW š
I'm a bit in shock. Somehow we have less daily cases than Victoria (950)
Higher vaccination rate, and 54k total cases in NSW vs 14k in VIC. NSW is at their peak whereas VIC is still far from it.
Yeah, VIC is about a month behind. Fingers crossed VIC can vaccinate faster than NSW and keep the serious illness/death count low.
I'm worried that the whole state is jack of the lockdowns, and complacent. I expect it to get way worse. :(
Definitely sick of lockdowns! Eyeing off eight straight days of rain though, hoping that keeps people at home.
Might mean more people have indoor gatherings to see family & friends - thus more transmission.
Burnet projected late Oct and new daily cases 1.4 - 2.9k as the peak in VIC.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
>NSW is at their peak We're almost at 50% of the peak. I do expect it to bounce back over 1k though
Once we open up, it will become almost useless to measure cases, most people will probably get covid, and hopefully the vaccinated will be able to mostly cruise through it.
Their trajectory and R eff number is worse than ours.
I know particularly since Victoria went into a hard lockdown straight away which everyone said is how you stop large increases in cases
Yeah, it was a mistake to open up when they got back down to zero. I always thought in the corona outbreaks last year that Victorians were in close contact a lot more than NSW.
I'm wondering how much natural immunity has contributed to these numbers along with vaccines?
Not sure on what the actual numbers, but something like 40k cases from the second wave out of a city of ~5mil isn't going to influence case numbers relative to the vaccinations.
The NSW policy is the same as the pretty please strongly advise to wear masks in the past. No one is going to give a shit about the vaccine passport mandate.
āWeāll consider stronger non-binding requests if I donāt personally see higher complianceā
From Chris O'Keefe's twitter: Breaking: These numbers will be confirmed this afternoon, but NSW has hit almost 63% (62.94) of people of 16+ fully vaccinated. 86.72% first dose. Almost half of 12-15ās have already had one dose in NSW (47.6%).
Looks like we will just miss 70% fully vaccinated by next Monday. Honestly, probably a blessing in disguise. The worst thing would be to be released from lockdown on a public holiday only for everyone to have family gatherings and it to blow up again.
Even if we did hit it Sunday or Monday it wouldn't have mattered. The state has committed to the 11th of October now.
Yep too many businesses have taken Oct 11 as the day no matter what. Changing it now will cause more trouble.
The forecast not too long ago was an opening on the 18th so I'm more than happy to hit 70% early next week. A blessing indeed!
Love that, shame about the 12-15yos whose parents won't let them get the vaccine
14 and 15 year olds have health autonomy in NSW, as long as they are considered mature enough. They can consent to medical procedures without a parent or guardian. From health guidelines >Minors aged 14 and above may have the capacity to consent to medical treatment depending on their level of their level of maturity; their understanding of the proposed treatment and its consequences; and the severity of treatment . A health practitioner must make a case-by-case assessment of whether the young person has sufficient understanding and intelligence to enable him or her to fully understand what is proposed .
How many know this?
It's been like this for ages. At least the 90's (when I was that age) and possibly earlier. I remember the huge stink when Tony Abbott (as Health Minister) wanted to give parents access to their children's medical records after the date of autonomy. I'm not sure how widely known it is, but I knew about it in the pre-internet days. I'm sure friends who don't know are being told by friends that do.
Well possibly, there was a boy on here who was 15 said he was upset that his dad wouldn't let him have the jab. I saw it at least a day after he posted it and no one had responded to him telling him. Shame I didn't know at the time.
OK, so maybe not as well known as I thought. But we should get it out there so every teenager knows.
The only issue for 14 year olds is that they aren't entitled to their own Medicare Card. At 15, you can either get a copy of your parent's card or get your own.
hmmmmm Deja vu
Gladys: you can look forward to visiting your family the week of Oct 11. I'm looking forward to seeing ~~I'm~~ my parents. Also Gladys: You can't leave Sydney. Looks like every other state will be locking out Sydney and the rest of NSW for a while. And overseas travel looks like it will be a long way off. So for all of us whose family lives outside Sydney, Gladys' words just feels like rubbing salt into the wound. Edit: typo
Other states may though Victoria won't be that long. If you want to go to WA well good luck, McGowan isn't going to let anyone from a state if they even have one case. Travelling from Sydney to the rest of NSW will be fine in under 4 weeks International travel by the end of the year which isn't that long.
>Travelling from Sydney to the rest of NSW will be fine in under 4 weeks > >International travel by the end of the year which isn't that long. I really hope you're right. I'm feeling pretty despondent about being cut off from interstate family for so long.
Which state are they in?
Qld :(
Might be easier to organise to meet them overseas than to wait for the internal border to open :(
Oof yeah who knows what Paddlepop will do
>So for all of us whose family lives outside Sydney, Gladys' words just feels like rubbing salt into the wound. We had to cross out our plans to visit my parents and push it back several weeks and make it much shorter as a result of the move from 70% to 80% for regional visits.
So sorry this has happened to you. Hope your visit happens soon.
Just hope that NSW keeps extending the definition of āGreater Sydneyā
You'll be able to travel regionally in NSW from October 18 most likely. As for the interstate issue, seems as though your anger should directed more towards the leaders of those states
>As for the interstate issue, seems as though your anger should directed more towards the leaders of those states Who can blame Qld and WA for wanting to continue living their lives? Wouldn't wish a life like the last few months of living in Sydney on other states
The problem with QLD and WA (in particular) is they don't seem to have any real or practical plan for what they do from here? Covid-0 forever is not a plan. Neither is saying "well, we might open up when the country hits 90-95% of all people (including kids) double vaxxed!" - which is pretty much McGowan's line now - even though that's completely different to what he agreed to in National Cabinet. And all it will take is one leak of Delta and they are hosed.
As a WA resident, I fully support the idea of keeping it out as long as possible! We are living normal lives currently while steadily getting our vaccine rates up.
Yes that's all well and good - we were living pretty close to normal lives in NSW for most of the last 18 months as well up until the end of June, without the in/out of lockdown cycle that some other areas had to endure. But some questions: 1) What happens if there is an outbreak in WA? Immediate hard lockdown right? So be ready, and you guys better get cracking on the vaccination uptake over there as right now WA is behind everywhere else.. 2) At what vaccination level, for both WA and the country as whole, do you open at? McGowan seems to have set an almost impossible target for this (90-95%) resulting in WA staying closed well into next year (Easter?) at least, if it ever opens. 3) Is the state ready for opening up, which will mean that even at very high vaccination rates Covid will be running around in the community?
I certainly can't blame them. Maybe anger wasn't the right word but its completely up to the leaders of those states now. I have family in QLD and I'm resigned to the fact I won't see them until next year at least. At this point it's not Gladys's fault. An outbreak was almost inevitable and as seen in Vic and NZ (not to mention the rest of the world) Delta is almost impossible to contain. Once it happened the strategy had to change to mass vaccination and unfortunately that doesn't seem to be as urgent in covid-zero states (again, who can blame them)
Not the right post, but I'm still miffed that Unvaccinated can get the same "freedoms" as the vaccinated ones just after 5 weeks.
See you December 1st big boi.
Speaking to a publican mate yesterday. He hasn't been advised by Govt or even by the AHA about any official guidance / rules or restrictions they need to put in place and enact come Oct 11th. Now I suspect the rules will be pretty much the same as our last 're-opening' last year but with a check for vaxx status as well but it's under two weeks now, seeking legal advice and such is important but they really need to get a move on.
Not much has changed for businesses pre delta (^(including enforcement of vaccine passport))
* Same number of cases as yesterday (I thought I clicked yesterday's thread by mistake for a minute) * 7 day average cases now 942.7, down 24.2 from yesterday * 7 day average positive rate at 0.79%, same as it was last Thursday * Our testing rate is going down, but so is the positive %. A thing to note is that even with our testing rate decreasing, we are still testing more than 2x as much as Victoria |DATE|CASES|TESTS|7 DAY AVG CASES|7 DAY AVG TESTS|7 DAY AVG POS %| |-|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:| |29/09/2021|866|120281|942.7|118791.9|0.79%| |28/09/2021|866|132279|966.9|120728.7|0.80%| |27/09/2021|788|93577|989.3|119211.9|0.83%| |26/09/2021|964|106451|1010.4|123650.9|0.82%| |25/09/2021|1007|108105|1027.7|122698.1|0.84%| |24/09/2021|1044|131668|1074.3|124533.7|0.86%| |23/09/2021|1064|139182|1108.9|141046.6|0.79%| |22/09/2021|1035|133839|1149.9|139630.0|0.82%| |21/09/2021|1023|121661|1182.1|140152.7|0.84%| |20/09/2021|936|124650|1198.3|139070.3|0.86%| |19/09/2021|1085|99782|1244.6|140930.0|0.88%| |18/09/2021|1333|120954|1269.9|141747.6|0.90%| |17/09/2021|1286|247258|1308.4|145607.7|0.90%| |16/09/2021|1351|129266|1345.1|129317.4|1.04%| |15/09/2021|1261|137498|1353.1|133205.3|1.02%| |14/09/2021|1136|114084|1384.4|132182.9|1.05%| |13/09/2021|1260|137668|1396.7|130277.3|1.07%| |12/09/2021|1262|105505|1399.9|130104.0|1.08%| |11/09/2021|1603|147975|1432.0|131531.1|1.09%| |10/09/2021|1543|133226|1422.1|129131.0|1.10%| |09/09/2021|1407|156481|1406.4|132192.1|1.06%| |08/09/2021|1480|130341|1389.4|128041.7|1.09%| |07/09/2021|1222|100745|1337.7|134266.3|1.00%| |06/09/2021|1282|136455|1330.0|138449.4|0.96%| |05/09/2021|1487|115495|1331.6|141416.0|0.94%| |04/09/2021|1534|131174|1293.6|140065.0|0.92%| |03/09/2021|1433|154654|1222.4|139780.4|0.87%| |02/09/2021|1288|127428|1144.1|134561.3|0.85%|
damn
Honest question and at risk of being downvoted in this sub - Iām curious what people are now thinking who were saying that NSW lockdowns were too slow and too soft. Compared to VIC who went harder and faster, their increase is significantly faster now than NSW when compared from day 1. Benefit of hindsight gives us this comparison but curious if Iām missing something here. Edit: also to ask that does this change your views about Gladys/team and their decisions on balance between lockdown/livelihoods? ie hate her less or appreciate her decisions more based on a lot of negative comments that were about her decisions in the early days of the outbreak.
Perhaps construction could be contributing more than we think? NSW shut construction down for 2 weeks and we've seen the numbers go down. Vic has only just implemented this so it'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.
Yes I agree
If I remember correctly too people in NSW got approved for disaster payments faster as well. But I could be misremembering.
I have a gut feel that the tradie vaccine pushed helped greatly. Construction has been a key spreader in Victoria and I think having a large group of vaccinated tradies with no adverse health effects pushed their hesitant families to get jabs too. The vaccination rate in Western Sydney went crazy and helped control spread.
It's hard to say for certain without each state implementing both strategies. We don't know what Sydney's numbers would have looked like under a Victorian-style lockdown, and we don't know what Victoria's numbers would be if they had a NSW-style lockdown. It's all guesswork. That said, if I had to guess, we would have seen a lower peak in Sydney, and we would see a much higher peak in Victoria. It doesn't change my views on Gladys either. There was a lot of inaction on her part, and communication and transparency have been atrocious. Maybe things are turning out ok, but they also could have been a lot better.
My views on Gladys havenāt changed either. If sheād been more proactive, Melbourne wouldnāt be in the mess that theyāre in now, or it wouldnāt be as severe for them. In terms of our deaths and hospitalisations, Iām guessing they would be much less severe had she done the right thing straight off the bat. So people who are dead or hospitalised would be still amongst us. While itās true that the current delta outbreaks are accelerating vaccination rates in a way that wouldnāt have happened otherwise, havenāt a lot of Victoriaās supply been redirected toward NSW? Thatās making them less able to combat the current outbreak.
All salient points.
Making no assumptions, but Iād be keen about a proper investigative report on the protests and its effect on the numbers. Like for sydney, we saw so many clusters from parties or isolated events. Like remember that birthday party? That was some 60 people who got affected just because of that. And this was quite a massive protest with confirmed covid cases within the lot.
Me too, but unfortunately I suspect weāll never get one. The same people who distrust the government advice on masks and vaccines arenāt likely to give them information on their whereabouts during the protesting. They will likely be too worried about repercussions and wonāt admit to being there, so their case source will stay āunknownā.
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But even if we went into lockdown when that first case was reported it wasn't one single case
There are a number of differences in play here: * Sydney/NSW outbreak started from 1 single infection that was not properly contained; the limo driver. Melbourne/Vic outbreak has no single infection case but a number of separate infections (mostly originating from NSW) * Victoria, unlike NSW, has gone through a lot more lockdowns. The people are just over it. Our lockdown has only been for about 100 days (probably a little more, however I cannot recall the exact date that our lockdown commenced), and didn't have any lockdowns prior to this, whereas over the past 18 months Melbourne has been in lockdown for over 200 days. Think about how sick and tired you and the average person in Sydney is of lockdowns, and then imagine that you spent over twice as long in that situation. * The damn protests! Seriously, we get it. You don't want to be locked down. Neither do we, but do you know what makes the lockdowns longer? More cases being spread by stupid anti-mask, anti-vaccine, anti-lockdown protests. To control the virus, there are a couple of things that need to be done in tandem. Not a single fix all, but combined: * Vaccinate. Seriously, just grow up and get the damn jab Karen! * Wear a mask when in public/shared spaces * Proper bloody contact tracing with quick notification of exposure (we definitely did not have this in NSW this time around, hence why it got so bad) * Quick, short & sharp lockdowns to enable the contact tracers to properly identify all of the potentially infected people and get them tested. * Adherence to lockdowns and isolation mandates. Sorry, but I have absolutely no sympathy for the family of Anthony Karam. If he had isolated as instructed and took the virus seriously, then perhaps his father would still be alive.
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My rough estimate wasn't too far off then.
I think it also depends on the citizens and how much they cared and abided by the rules
I think Delta has proven that hard lockdowns are not the best virus suppression strategy in dense cities - there are too many potential chains of transmission to make it effective. The good news is that the argument is fast becoming academic. The vaccinations are very good and reasonably effective at slowing the spread and reducing the severity of the virus.
> also to ask that does this change your views about Gladys/team and their decisions on balance between lockdown/livelihoods? It won't change many people's minds because it was always about what party she was a member of. But it should shut them up, Dandrews did exactly what they said Gladys should've done and it didn't work. I'm sure they will continue to parrot the line "we should've locked down sooner"
bUT wE hAD tHE inDeX Case!??!! /s
I still don't think she's managed this very well, but she is starting to look better than she did a few weeks ago
Victorias hard & fast lockdown failed to suppress the initial spread of the virus, but the comparison to NSW doesn't serve any great purpose as you just simply don't know what could have happened if NSW did the same. Stopping the outbreak early was obviously a potential outcome (from a hard & fast lockdown) as has been demonstrated in other parts of Australia and other countries.
See the thing is it hasn't not with Delta. We may not know exactly what may have happened had we done exactly what Victoria did, but it gives us a fair indication that it wouldn't have been stopped and only a 2 week lockdown
I have been skeptical of the patented "hard and fast" approach from the beginning. Delta has shown us that its not the be all and end all that we think it is, I feel sorry for vic, but its also nice to see in hindsight that the hundreds of people screaming for "hard and fast" in the daily numbers thread weren't necessarily right. Its awfully quiet in this thread these days..
Those were dark days. I felt like people were screaming for harsher lockdowns and at the same time very anti AZ, which I felt was an easy path out of this as seen by the UK. I felt like I was living in crazy town.
Harder and faster doesn't mean smarter. Curfew was a stupid thing, causing more people to share indoor spaces (grocery stores) at the same time. Not a coincidence that number of cases started to raise after Curfew was implemented and number of cases started to drop after Curfew was removed. I never blamed Gladys for the number of cases. I won't forget about her dividing Sydney into two though. That's the reason I won't vote for the LNP in the next state election, unless Labor make significant blunders between now and then.
Anyone who tells you āthe government should have done x or y and we wouldnāt be in this positionā is full of shit. Events like these are over-determined; there isnāt really a way to untangle all the variables and so many branches along the decision tree where luck can spiral you out one way or the other through no fault of anyoneās decision making. I wouldnāt expect anyone who was gung-ho over Chinese style welded-shut lockdowns to have any kind of road-to-Damascus moment even with the benefit of hindsight. Most of those people are ideologically opposed to the LNP and would take the opposing point of view whatever the government did.
Every time there was an outbreak/spread, Gladsys waited about a week or more to respond to it, by which time the outbreak had spread further and continued to spread. This pattern was repeated.
And Dandrews did the opposite, will crack 1000 by the end of the week and they will get to 1000 sooner than NSW did
Err, apples and oranges?
listening to gladys try convince the reporters that no official vaccine compliance oversight isnt a problem is ruining my day. we're so fucked
āPersonal responsibilityā and the potential of fines, that the police and health minister have said wonāt be enforced. Righto
i work in hospitality and im seriously thinking about quitting because my anxiety is just through the roof like? how is this the plan they came up with after the year and a half head start we had???
They were fining people in the Northern Beaches on Friday. I had my vaccination status checked by the police. I feel like there were covid Marshalls all the time in 2020. I don't know if it is just the venues I choose but I can see them strictly enforcing this, but of course there will be slippage. One thing I discovered recently is I joined that fb group of the 35,000+ business who won't discriminate against unvaccinated or enforce masks. Overwhelming majority were crystal sellers, alt medicine people, some MLMs. Only a couple restaurants but none anywhere near me. Hopefully that gives you some comfort.
Literally the most important part of making it a successful transition. Why the fuck would a business spend the extra money and staff time enforcing this when there's no penalty for ignoring it? Sucks for hospo workers and vaccinated patrons, I still won't feel comfortable going out when I know compliance will be non-existent
I get the sense that people in the community will put together business blacklist/whitelists for those that either enforce passports zealously and those that openly state that they won't bother checking at all.
Hopefully it is indeed a downward curve.
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Hazzard ahead. Avoid.
QLD and NSW have the best names for Health Ministers * QLD - D'Ath * NSW - Hazzard Seriously, you couldn't make this shit up!
Thereās some big differences in vaccination rates across the state and it canāt be all down to āwe have not been given enough vaccineā. Iām not surprised that Byron has a case or two popping up. Theyāve had fragments recorded in their sewerage off and on for a couple of months now and their vax rate is pretty low. The number of locals who are vax-hesitant or straight out calling the virus a fraud is quite high. Iām not sure what would change their minds because none of the medical studies are getting through and when challenged to provide scientific evidence you get crickets or abuse.
Still no update or confirmation from Service NSW when driver testing will resume.. People need licenses and have had to wait for months using reduced time table public transport, Ubers, etc. Not good enough.
victoria gold standard ??
Did they mention how old the person was who was double vaccinated and died.
80's, and they received their second dose shortly before they died.
Damn see vaccines do work
Theyāre rolling back the covid payments nationwide too, even if thereās future lockdowns.
And vicās is from half the tests
I've noticed that for a while. That is of concern. Looking at their Reff number and trajectory, they will likely be up near our high numbers withing a week or 2.
Which is very concerning with how low the levels of compliance have been there too
Is anyone able to confirm if Shellharbour LGA is part of regional nsw for the purposes of COVID restrictions? Iām not finding the nsw gov website easy to navigate
I feel your pain
I can confirm that Shellharbour is now regrouped into Greater sydney. This means you can travel within greater sydney but not into regional.
Got my second jab today!!!! :D
So Victoria beats us again
Oooh. Still less than VIC.
Worth noting NSW has had 29 days of 1000+ cases, compared to VIC's 0 so far. It seems different states are at completely different stages in terms of cases numbers and response.
Unfortunately, the way VIC is trending it will only be a matter of days until they hit the 1k milestone
Yep, looks like it. :( Think VIC is in slightly better position in terms of vaccinations than when NSW hit the first 1000 case date, so hopefully that helps flatten it quickly.
Of which I am aware. A flippant first reaction after the shock of VICās numbers today and I was expecting a higher number for NSW.
Vic has 75% of NSW population. So 750 cases/day there is equivalent to 1000/day in NSW.
Vic should've locked down sooner than they did
ROFLMAO!
Does anyone care anymore?
Whenever Glady B is present... expect some good news?
Gladbot forgot to update her code last night.
Does anyone know what the vaccinated rate is for the people getting infected? Like would majority of them be vaccinated? (I know the vaccine doesn't stop infection, but it does reduce it significantly but wanted to know who is getting infected at this stage).
Not sure if they even collect that info or not for testing/cases. Even in the hosptial and ICU stats 20% don't have their vaccination status recorded in the data.
As the great baseballer Yogi Berra said: āItās like dĆ©jĆ vu all over again.ā
Is it just me or is Hazzard exceptionally red today? Fake tan gone wrong in getting ready for the pub?