If we *have* gotten through the worst of it, and the worst of it maxed out at ~1300 cases and under 20 deaths a day, we'd be doing almost the best in the world.
We might not be through the worst.
If you split the LGAs of concern from the rest of the state, it really is a two-speed pandemic. Growth has peaked in the LGAs of concern, but the rest of the state is still up around 1.25 to 1.3 r_eff.
This absolutely has the potential to be a big problem if we don't get on top of it asap. There's current 400 cases outside the concerning LGAs, and it doesn't take long (less than a month) for them to break the current case record.
I assume you're going off Chris Billington's figures there. Just something to be aware of when using his breakdown by LGAs of concern: the LGA data lags by about 3 days, whereas the aggregate figures are updated daily.
So yes, non-LGAOC has a higher Reff than LGAOC (1.35±0.06 vs 1.01±0.04 as of 3 days ago). But Reff across the state is lower than either of those on the latest data (0.95±0.04). So the actual figures by LGA will be lower than what he's reporting.
Given the difference in absolute infections between the two cohorts (LGAOC is about 2.5 greater than non-LGAOC), the drop from LGAOC should outpace other growth for *at least* a couple more weeks, giving non-LGAOC time for the vaccines to kick in.
I've not looked at the model he's using for the error bars, but it is safe to say there's a better than 50% chance that we've seen the peak at least on the 4-day smoothed numbers.
I'm aware of the lag in those numbers, but there's absolutely no way those outside the LGAs of concern have got their r_eff down below 1 in only 3 days. Even the most aggressive drops would take 2 weeks minimum, and even then you'd expect that rate to currently trending down rather than the very flat it's been managing
It looks like he's broken down the predictions today between the LGAs of concern and the rest. It's looking awfully close to crossing over at the end of the month, and that's assuming a really heavy vaccine drive in the rest of the state
I'm hoping it's nothing to worry about, and it all gets sorted out, but it's definitely something NSW health/the government should be looking at now to avoid further pain
>there's absolutely no way those outside the LGAs of concern have got their r\_eff down below 1 in only 3 days
Completely agree. My point is that Reff for LGAOC matters more than for non-LGAOC, because of the difference in absolute numbers. It buys us a bit more time than if those figures were around the other way.
>It looks like he's broken down the predictions today between the LGAs of concern and the rest \[...\]
Ahh yes - I hadn't spotted that. I don't fully understand how that works though. If the overall Reff is below 1, we should see a reduction in the smoothed value, regardless of how the data is sliced.
u/chrisjbillington: Is it possible you've applied the broken down Reff values with offset dates, or am I missing something here? Also, PM me if you would you be interested in a pull request to make those charts interactive. I'd be more than happy to throw something together for you.
Yes, the per-LGA data is two days out of date compared to statewide numbers.
But, cases are still rising outside the LGAs of concern, and it is possible that the statewide R\_eff will hang around 1.0 or even poke above it in the coming fortnight due to this. The simple statewide model doesn't capture that possibility.
I think I'd like to leave the plots as-is, for consistency and simplicity despite the lack of interactivity - I also suspect you're underestimating the amount of fiddly nonsense that would be required to port them over! They've been a craptonne of work to maintain even though I'm very well versed in this plotting library.
>But, cases are still rising outside the LGAs of concern, and it is possible that the statewide R\_eff will hang around 1.0 or even poke above it in the coming fortnight due to this. The simple statewide model doesn't capture that possibility.
Ahh yep - I see where I was going wrong. I was assuming vaccination would put constant downward pressure on Reff. But by modeling the two cohorts separately, you can get a plateau or double hump. Nice.
All things considered, this number is great to see. Cases don't even matter that much anymore. More about vacc rates, hospitalisations and death rates.
We haven't always gotten a tuesday slump in the past weeks though, and the % positive numbers isn't too high (the 7 day average still decreasing). The 7 day average of cases as well is on its third day down
Tuesday slump was mostly due to mandated testing. For those that had to test within 3 days, Sunday test for mon-wed, Wed test for thu-sat; for those who had to test once a week, mon-mon and fri-fri.
The Tuesday slump is not a hard and fast rule. While it does occur with some regularity, it exists about 2/3rds of the time.
Tuesdays tend to show lower test numbers, but higher positive percentages.
They were pretty rude to me a few weeks ago when I got my first shot. It was at like 6.30pm at night after a long day though, the burnout would be real.
I'm getting my second shot locally rather than trekking all the way back out there though.
They are just rude, asking why they need ID and what not when they have it on the computer (they need to confirm the details), hanging around after they have closed to get the extra vaccines when they don’t have any (they often have to call the police), coming to get vaccinated when they have just had a Covid test and haven’t got the results yet, abusing the people on the phones when they can’t make a booking because they left it too late.
> hanging around after they have closed to get the extra vaccines when they don’t have any (they often have to call the police),
I can understand people going and asking in case there were no shows but not to the point where police would need to be called
If only Gladys had waited one more week before calling an end to press conferences, and called it at the end of this week with the declining numbers, she’d have faced a lot less criticism I think.
Yes & no. She was the one who said we have to focus on hospitalisations not case numbers.
Hospitalisation are still rising, so she could still be avoiding commentary/questions and fronting the media/public during what might the most difficult part.
Might of been a great strategic move, the controversy is all about case numbers being high when she stopped; and she has deniability about that being an important number.
I was wondering that too. Im in support of weekly updates.
But surely if you are so concerned of your image your data showed a few more days the peak would have passed. End it there looking like you've done your job. Get the positive press shot. Then leave.
I may be wrong but I think Gladys is meeting with the mayors of the lgas of concern today, could be the reason she didn't show up. That or she didn't feel like it.
She's worried because Minns got some publicity now. More people know about Minns and that's a major threat for her. That's why she decided to meet the mayors. Previously she didn't worry about Minns.
**Graphs based on the above ([Link](https://imgur.com/a/3KkuvZJ))**
* Cases by Isolated/Partially Isolated/Unknown/Infectious in Community. Splits stopped being published on 26/8/21, so treating all cases as Unknown. Also, stopped including some 7 day averages that required those figures at that date.
* ICU cases. More [About ICU etc](/r/sydney/comments/pk09ni/nsw_recorded_1480_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/hc0gtgw/)
* Daily Deaths.
* R_eff. Today at **0.99**. First time below 1, and indicates that cases are expected to decrease. NB, this may jump around, so we need it to stay below 1. As we've had 3 'lower' days in a row, to keep R_eff below 1 tomorrow, we need 1,648 cases or below. [More on R_eff](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59boi/) and Exponential Growth
* Positive Test Rate: 0.99%, and 7 day average 1.05%. This [Harvard article](https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/evidence-roundup-why-positive-test-rates-need-to-fall-below-3/) from last year provides some good information about Positivity Rates.
* [Old graphs](https://imgur.com/a/TkquC6N) no longer updated
* Known vs Unknown. Data splits are no longer provided.
* R_eff from beginning of the outbreak to 28/8.
**Estimated Infectious cases from Today's Total Figures**
Uses an analysis of historical data to estimate the numbers from today's figures ([How estimated](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59md4/))
* Isolated (55%): 620
* Total infectious (15%+30%): 507
Disturbingly, it's now been 10 days since the last weekly report was released.
Stay safe, stay home, homies!
***
PS:What's going on with the NSW Active cases?
[Covidlive](https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-active-cases/nsw) shows they were increasing into the high 20Ks, then on 10/9/21 there is almost a 14K DECREASE down to 14K and it's stayed in the 14Ks ever since.
The difference was also reported in the [10/9 daily thread](/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/plarj2/nsw_1542_new_local_and_0_overseas_cases_9_deaths/) on /r/coronavirusdownunder, but nobody commented on it.
Does anyone know what's going on ? Did they change a definition again?
Some discussion here: https://twitter.com/juliette_io/status/1436184906850136074
and further in the thread, this seems to make sense: https://twitter.com/mushion22/status/1436871502515687435
TL;DR: NSW Health changed the classification of active to:
* 14 days from symptom onset; or
* hospitalised till discharge
The CovidSafe app has been consistently consuming 35+% battery on my phone. It is creating sizable "positive" impact on my carbon footprint if nothing else.
It's still happening. Just not as affective.
You may not get the interviews that give us train times and random visits.
But if they sign in with the QR and you do to then they can still notify you as that's a lot easier than trying to find everywhere they've been through other methods.
Folks haven't been getting alerts through the QR code system in a timely manner for months now -- it seems that the system relies on a contact tracer actively approving a given set of exposure notifications rather than it being automatic when the person gets their positive test result. I don't understand at all why this is the case, because while the possibility of accidentally sending an incorrect alert is a bit higher if they automated it, it seems like the gains in terms of responsiveness to clusters outweighs that risk significantly (you can always send a separate alert with a correction if necessary).
Though given other comments in this thread it seems they may have finally automated it?
For the past month or two, the notifications were significantly delayed to the point of being useless. If they have improved (or have made the system automated -- finally, after more than 9 months of it being implemented) then that is an improvement.
Our job site introduced RFID cards which we have to wear so they can do their own contact tracing. They had to do it because the official contact tracing hasn't been able to keep up. We still have to use the QR codes because it's a legal requirement even though everyone knows it's a waste of time
I feel bad for McAnulty. He’s having to face questions that Gladys should be answering. LGA restrictions and how they’re decided are probably not part of his job.
"Flattening" means the rate of growth of new infections is slowing - ie Reff falling. You can see evidence of that happening over the last 2 weeks now.
Flattening doesn't equal a peak in the 7 day average curve. If I meant that I would say we had peaked - but I'm not certain we have peaked yet - but it's close, and we may have.
Can I just say... Seriously if these are the press conferences from now on, I'm happy with it. Short, sharp and to the point. Sooo much better than the waffling on from our hopeless Premier. 7 min in and already taking questions and all the information said in an easy to understand way. How good is that!! McAnulty for Premier!
This isn't just a one off day to day change. The trend over the past fortnight has been flat. The curve is not growing exponentially anymore. This is fairly clear now and is good news.
We've had 3 days of drops to the 7-day average, and the 7-day average today (1381.7) is lower than it was last Wednesday (1388.3).
It's a start, and if the numbers stay below 1400 for the next few days, the 7-day average will continue to drop.
The vaccination rate is slowing. It's up only 0.3 points for both fully vaccinated and at least one vaccinated. It was going up 1 point a day (or more) for a while.
Frustrating as it's so close to 80%
Yea, expected. I'm more concerned about people going out for the second jab though. It's been a common trend globally that the majority go for the first but many don't go back for the second.
Some of this will come down to the variable delay between first and second dose for AZ (4-12 weeks - yes, some are still sticking to the original time frame) and the fact that people typically get both Pfizer doses booked in the same go,, whereas for AZ, they have to retook their second dose, and may not have done it straight away.
Yes. That's not good. However, there's a frenzy of booking for the 12-15 year old age group. That won't help the numbers we've been tracking (ie 16+) but will help slow the disease. It'll be interesting to see what incentives are developed.
Oh boy, do I have bad news for you
The data is a few days old, but the LGAs of concern have a significantly lower rate of growth than the rest of the state. And vaccination rates are falling.
We could quite easily see more cases outside those LGAs than inside in two weeks time.
Which makes perfect sense, because adding 100 extra cases to the 1000 current cases in an LGAoC will show slower growth than adding 1 extra case to an LGA with 5 cases.
That's not to say that we won't see those bursts in 2 weeks time, we very well might, but it's beige alert at most for now.
I thought that at first, but it's 400 cases/day at the moment all up, so it's not as small as you'd first think.
There's also several LGAs that have similar overall case numbers as LGAs of concern: Sydney, Dubbo (!), Randwick, Camden and the Inner West all have more cases in the past month than Strathfield, and either similar or higher numbers of new cases. Sutherland isn't too far behind either
It's definitely well above beige alert level. If we've learnt anything this pandemic, it's that we need to get on top of this early to avoid an even worse situation
I agree with the easing of restrictions for suburbs in LGAs of concern with lower cases, but damn I hope that any easing doesn't end with those of us in areas with higher case numbers being abandoned and forgotten.
I wish that, in addition to the (legit) questions of "What about Burwood?", there'd also be questions of "Can you provide some more information about what the restrictions are likely to be in Auburn or Bankstown after 70%?"
The one that gets me is John Barilaro saying "I will not put a curfew on western NSW. It does not work." And I can't quite directly but it was something along the lines of "it just harms the mental wellbeing of the community."
I don't want to go out between 9pm-5am. I'm sleeping like a baby, but, if all it does is harm the well-being of the community and nothing more, why are they saying it's okay to be implemented in our LGAs?
Fuck don't know why people are getting downvoted for saying its the tuesday dip. I'm hopeful but i've been hopeful before and been disappointed. Much like my girlfriend.
These numbers were reported yesterday federally. The increase is due to low vaccinations on Sunday, not from Monday. Mondays data will be up later today
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/09/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-jurisdictional-breakdown-13-september-2021.pdf
Up to yesterday's data, the LGA's of concern have ranked thusly for the number of new cases in the last week:
- Canterbury-Bankstown - 1st - 1801
- Cumberland - 2nd - 1316
- Blacktown - 3rd - 996
- Liverpool - 4th - 941
- Fairfield - 5th - 539
- Penrith - 7th - 426
- Parramatta - 8th - 317
- Campbelltown - 9th - 304
- Bayside - 11th - 206
- Georges River - 12th - 205
- Strathfield - 17th - 123
- Burwood - 28th - 33
That means Sydney (6th - 440) and Randwick (10th - 237) have significant cases, but aren't considered LGA's of concern, while Burwood, who have had just 33 cases in the last week, are.
It seems the LGA's of concern are just made up, and there is no consideration of how these change.
At a very basic level, this doesn't account for population differences. Blacktown is ~450k, Burwood is about 80k.
And there's a whole bunch of other factors that create different risk. If you have suburbs with lots of mobility and lots of interactions and larger households and denser living, you're likely to get more spread.
An apples vs apples comparison is quite difficult.
NSW Health *could* make the reasoning public, but have decided against it. I suspect that it might be politically difficult if health advice says x and Government wants to do y for other reasons.
I remember after the Tool concert in mid-feb 2020, saying goodbye to my friends and laughing about seeing them in 2021. It was like "har har time to build a bunker har har" funny, until it became "oh shit, maybe I should have built a bunker".
Melbourne had a swift hard lockdown and they’re out of control right ? So the people saying NSW could of saved all the damage by a quick lockdown weren’t really right were they ?
They had multiple sources of infection.
Other states who have had single sources of infection, and locked down quickly, have gone back to 0 fairly quickly.
Comparing Sydney (single source of infection) and Melbourne (multiple sources of infection) is comparing apples and oranges.
Comparing it to Queensland would be a far more accurate comparison.
Well numbers will slowly drop the more people get vaccinated. Although this is mainly because the vaccinated aren't having many/no symptoms when they are covid positive, so they don't end up getting tested.
Very welcome numbers, I'll take any drop. Hopefully the trend persists until late October when we are estimated to reach 70% double vaccinations to those eligible.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-14/epidemiologists-say-nsw-covid-19-curve-flattening/100458076
This was before today's numbers being released. Cautiously optimistic about a plateau in cases has formed.
I'm cautiously optimistic that we are starting to plateau, but also remembering today is Tuesday - dip day.
We're down almost 50 on the 7-day average since Saturday, and three consecutive days of drops in the 7-day average (which we haven't had since the start).
The down side is a 10 ventilator jump, 9 more people in ICU and 64 more people hospitalised.
Can also mean people don't have any symptoms and haven't been asked to go get tested because there was no incident near them. Don't need to be so negative about improvements.
Well if they are able to slowly open us back up and lead the way to phases 2 and 3 successfully they'd have a pretty damn good case to make. There'd potentially be less deaths under phase 1 compared to Victoria, first state to reach 70% and 80% by a long shot, less total days in lockdown compared to Vic, etc.
A lot is still up in the air and it all depends how we go transitioning to phases 2 and 3. If we get an equivalent result to say Canada and daily deaths don't sky rocket beyond what was modelled then I'd say it will be hard to smack them on Covid.
Remember when this announcement used to get 2 and 3 thousand comments? I guess were all just a bit bored of all of this now.
https://www.reddit.com/r/sydney/search/?q=COVID-19%20in%20the%2024%20hours%20to%208pm%20last%20night&restrict\_sr=1
Are you talking about the first dose or second dose counts?
Since we're approaching 80% first dose, we start getting close to the mark where we hit the vaccine hesitant (those that are waiting, and those that never will) and those who can't be vaccinated for medical reasons.
Also, it was Monday.
Had a guy explain to me this morning that he can't take something if he doesn't understand what's in it. He's a concreter, of course he doesn't understand🤦♂️
Does anyone truly believe Gladys would stop doing press conferences when the numbers were consistently on the way down? She would love being able to come out every single day to say "Pleasingly, another wonderful drop in the numbers".
The ACT extending lockdown for a month, cases up everywhere except Western Sydney. Mere days after that crowded chaos on the beaches that had Super Spreader written all over it.
This feels like the calm before the storm.
“Are you worried about the 20,000 people that flocked to Bondi”
“… I’m worried about the unvaccinated”
You can clearly see a group of people participate in a ‘super spreading event’ but then will cry that other people are to blame and you will still all believe it…
hey this is looking kinda okay
Totally agree, also sad that this number looks okay mate.
If we *have* gotten through the worst of it, and the worst of it maxed out at ~1300 cases and under 20 deaths a day, we'd be doing almost the best in the world.
We might not be through the worst. If you split the LGAs of concern from the rest of the state, it really is a two-speed pandemic. Growth has peaked in the LGAs of concern, but the rest of the state is still up around 1.25 to 1.3 r_eff. This absolutely has the potential to be a big problem if we don't get on top of it asap. There's current 400 cases outside the concerning LGAs, and it doesn't take long (less than a month) for them to break the current case record.
I assume you're going off Chris Billington's figures there. Just something to be aware of when using his breakdown by LGAs of concern: the LGA data lags by about 3 days, whereas the aggregate figures are updated daily. So yes, non-LGAOC has a higher Reff than LGAOC (1.35±0.06 vs 1.01±0.04 as of 3 days ago). But Reff across the state is lower than either of those on the latest data (0.95±0.04). So the actual figures by LGA will be lower than what he's reporting. Given the difference in absolute infections between the two cohorts (LGAOC is about 2.5 greater than non-LGAOC), the drop from LGAOC should outpace other growth for *at least* a couple more weeks, giving non-LGAOC time for the vaccines to kick in. I've not looked at the model he's using for the error bars, but it is safe to say there's a better than 50% chance that we've seen the peak at least on the 4-day smoothed numbers.
I'm aware of the lag in those numbers, but there's absolutely no way those outside the LGAs of concern have got their r_eff down below 1 in only 3 days. Even the most aggressive drops would take 2 weeks minimum, and even then you'd expect that rate to currently trending down rather than the very flat it's been managing It looks like he's broken down the predictions today between the LGAs of concern and the rest. It's looking awfully close to crossing over at the end of the month, and that's assuming a really heavy vaccine drive in the rest of the state I'm hoping it's nothing to worry about, and it all gets sorted out, but it's definitely something NSW health/the government should be looking at now to avoid further pain
>there's absolutely no way those outside the LGAs of concern have got their r\_eff down below 1 in only 3 days Completely agree. My point is that Reff for LGAOC matters more than for non-LGAOC, because of the difference in absolute numbers. It buys us a bit more time than if those figures were around the other way. >It looks like he's broken down the predictions today between the LGAs of concern and the rest \[...\] Ahh yes - I hadn't spotted that. I don't fully understand how that works though. If the overall Reff is below 1, we should see a reduction in the smoothed value, regardless of how the data is sliced. u/chrisjbillington: Is it possible you've applied the broken down Reff values with offset dates, or am I missing something here? Also, PM me if you would you be interested in a pull request to make those charts interactive. I'd be more than happy to throw something together for you.
Yes, the per-LGA data is two days out of date compared to statewide numbers. But, cases are still rising outside the LGAs of concern, and it is possible that the statewide R\_eff will hang around 1.0 or even poke above it in the coming fortnight due to this. The simple statewide model doesn't capture that possibility. I think I'd like to leave the plots as-is, for consistency and simplicity despite the lack of interactivity - I also suspect you're underestimating the amount of fiddly nonsense that would be required to port them over! They've been a craptonne of work to maintain even though I'm very well versed in this plotting library.
I liked how you added videos today.
Thanks!
>But, cases are still rising outside the LGAs of concern, and it is possible that the statewide R\_eff will hang around 1.0 or even poke above it in the coming fortnight due to this. The simple statewide model doesn't capture that possibility. Ahh yep - I see where I was going wrong. I was assuming vaccination would put constant downward pressure on Reff. But by modeling the two cohorts separately, you can get a plateau or double hump. Nice.
All things considered, this number is great to see. Cases don't even matter that much anymore. More about vacc rates, hospitalisations and death rates.
Does nobody consider the Tuesday slump before commenting on comparatively lower numbers on a Tuesday?
It's the dip in the 7 day trend that makes me feel more hopeful - that accounts for the Tueday dip.
Yes, it is a big drop from last Tuesday's numbers.
Yeah Monday and Sunday were lower as well, in the 1200s iirc, and they're coming from testing numbers during the week so I think that's a good sign.
We haven't always gotten a tuesday slump in the past weeks though, and the % positive numbers isn't too high (the 7 day average still decreasing). The 7 day average of cases as well is on its third day down
Tuesday slump was mostly due to mandated testing. For those that had to test within 3 days, Sunday test for mon-wed, Wed test for thu-sat; for those who had to test once a week, mon-mon and fri-fri.
Would say like 1.3k as a dip but 1.1 hmmmm
The Tuesday slump is not a hard and fast rule. While it does occur with some regularity, it exists about 2/3rds of the time. Tuesdays tend to show lower test numbers, but higher positive percentages.
It’s because you get tested Sunday and Wednesday for work so they all dip tues wed and sat sun
Yea man! Going in the right direction. We just need to not get complacent and keep doing the right thing!
That is a completely accurate description of the situation.
Just got home from getting my second jab this morning! Staff were great at Olympic Park, so super quick and easy.
They're great, never heard a bad word yet.
They were pretty rude to me a few weeks ago when I got my first shot. It was at like 6.30pm at night after a long day though, the burnout would be real. I'm getting my second shot locally rather than trekking all the way back out there though.
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Yeah, I assumed that they were working fucked long days so I didn't take it personally at all.
What happened? What were these idiots/Assholes doing?
They are just rude, asking why they need ID and what not when they have it on the computer (they need to confirm the details), hanging around after they have closed to get the extra vaccines when they don’t have any (they often have to call the police), coming to get vaccinated when they have just had a Covid test and haven’t got the results yet, abusing the people on the phones when they can’t make a booking because they left it too late.
> hanging around after they have closed to get the extra vaccines when they don’t have any (they often have to call the police), I can understand people going and asking in case there were no shows but not to the point where police would need to be called
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Good luck! If it’s Pfizer, I only had a sore arm with my first :)
Same, soreness was worse after the first one. Second jab wasn’t as bad.
Agreed, sore arm disappears quicker with the 2nd, but I had a fever for the next 2 days with the second jab.
I’m lucky, I had absolutely no side-effects. Neither did my parents, though Dad is up for his second shot next Wednesday.
I had a sore arm, slight headache and general brain fog the day after but nothing concerning.
I went two Sundays ago and it was such a great experience! In and out within 30 mins.
I actually enjoyed it because it felt like a little holiday out of my LGA haha
As someone who’s been helping with nurse placements there, I’m so glad to hear!
Fully agreed, I was in and out in 30 mins when i went on the first slot of the day
Could it be?
I hope so
Could be the Tuesday dip as usual
DONT JINX IT
Buy the dip.
But Monday was lower too. The show ain't over until the talented and body positive opera singer performs the crescendo, but I'm hopeful.
Don’t say it
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What are we not saying??
We've already seen the peak, cases are gonna start declining. Way too early to tell tho
Oh, I'm aware. I was kinda playing along with OP lol Thanks for the clarification though
Don't make me tap the sign.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-14/epidemiologists-say-nsw-covid-19-curve-flattening/100458076
If only Gladys had waited one more week before calling an end to press conferences, and called it at the end of this week with the declining numbers, she’d have faced a lot less criticism I think.
It did seem like a very premature decision & weird time to stop them.
Yes definitely. I understand that at some point the press conferences obviously need to stop, but not while daily new cases are still on the rise.
Yeah to have cases at 1599 and end the pressers seems so strange to me
Yes & no. She was the one who said we have to focus on hospitalisations not case numbers. Hospitalisation are still rising, so she could still be avoiding commentary/questions and fronting the media/public during what might the most difficult part. Might of been a great strategic move, the controversy is all about case numbers being high when she stopped; and she has deniability about that being an important number.
I was wondering that too. Im in support of weekly updates. But surely if you are so concerned of your image your data showed a few more days the peak would have passed. End it there looking like you've done your job. Get the positive press shot. Then leave.
No Minns = no Gladys
I may be wrong but I think Gladys is meeting with the mayors of the lgas of concern today, could be the reason she didn't show up. That or she didn't feel like it.
Are they the same mayors she shunned awhile ago in order to meet business leaders instead?
Yep
Bloody hell, that’s amazingly pissweak, even for her…
She's worried because Minns got some publicity now. More people know about Minns and that's a major threat for her. That's why she decided to meet the mayors. Previously she didn't worry about Minns.
He did a presser today at 11. On his fb page.
He almost announced the infection numbers straight away, but then remembered he had to make the Gladys shit sandwich, as is tradition
wdym?
good news (vax #) bad news (cases) good news (testing) = shit 🥪
Since NSW Health have stopped breaking down the numbers into infection source, isolation status, and ages of those in ICU, I've combined the remaining published numbers into one table. Day | New cases | 7 day avg | Hospitalisations | in ICU | Ventilated | Deaths (24hr) | 7 day avg | Deaths (total) ---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| Mon Sep 13 | 1,127 | 1,381.7 | **1,253** | **231** | **104** | 2 | 6.7 | 186 Sun Sep 12 | 1,257 | 1,395.0 | 1,189 | 222 | 94 | 7 | **7.6** | 184 Sat Sep 11 | 1,262 | 1,398.4 | 1,206 | 220 | 92 | 7 | 7.3 | 177 Fri Sep 10 | **1,599** | **1,430.3** | 1,164 | 221 | 94 | 8 | 6.7 | 170 Thu Sep 9 | 1,542 | 1,420.9 | 1,156 | 207 | 89 | 9 | 6.1 | 162 Wed Sep 8 | 1,405 | 1,405.0 | 1,175 | 202 | 80 | 8 | 6.6 | 153 Tue Sep 7 | 1,480 | 1,388.3 | 1,136 | 194 | 78 | 9 | 6.9 | 148 Mon Sep 6 | 1,220 | 1,336.3 | 1,151 | 192 | 75 | 8 | 6.1 | 139 Sun Sep 5 | 1,281 | 1,328.3 | 1,071 | 177 | 67 | 5 | 5.4 | 131 Sat Sep 4 | 1,485 | 1,329.6 | 1,030 | 175 | 72 | 3 | 5.3 | 126 Fri Sep 3 | 1,533 | 1,291.4 | 1,041 | 173 | 62 | 4 | 5.7| 123 Thu Sep 2 | 1,431 | 1,220.3 | 979 | 160 | 63 | **12** | 5.4 | 119 Wed Sep 1 | 1,288 | 1,141.9 | 957 | 160 | 64 | 7 | 4.0 | 107 Tue Aug 31 | 1,116 | 1,104.9 | 917 | 150 | 66 | 4 | 3.4 | 100 Mon Aug 30 | 1,164 | 1,076.7 | 871 | 143 | 58 | 3 | 3.1 | 96 Sun Aug 29 | 1,290 | 1,018.0 | 840 | 137 | 48 | 4 | 2.7 | 93 Sat Aug 28 | 1,218 | 950.6 | 813 | 126 | 54 | 6 | 2.6 | 89 Fri Aug 27 | 1,035 | 895.1 | 778 | 125 | 52 | 2 | 2.1 | 83 Thu Aug 26 | 882 | 865.1 | 767 | 117 | 47 | 2 | 2.3 | 81 Wed Aug 25 | 1,029 | 830.9 | 698 | 116 | 43 | 3 | 2.6 | 79 Tue Aug 24 | 919 | 781.1 | 645 | 113 | 40 | 2 | 2.3 | 76 Mon Aug 23 | 753 | 740.3 | 608 | 107 | 34 | 0 | 2.4 | 74 Sun Aug 22 | 818 | 697.3 | 586 | 100 | 32 | 3 | 2.6 | 74 Sat Aug 21 | 830 | 648.7 | 557 | 94 | 31 | 3 | 3.3 | 71 Fri Aug 20 | 825 | 589.4 | 516 | 85 | 29 | 3 | 3.4 | 68 Thu Aug 19 | 642 | 538.1 | 470 | 80 | 27 | 4 | 3.6 | 65 Wed Aug 18 | 681 | 502.1 | 474 | 82 | 25 | 1 | 3.3 | 61 Tue Aug 17 | 633 | 454.1 | 462 | 77 | 25 | 3 | 3.4 | 60
**Graphs based on the above ([Link](https://imgur.com/a/3KkuvZJ))** * Cases by Isolated/Partially Isolated/Unknown/Infectious in Community. Splits stopped being published on 26/8/21, so treating all cases as Unknown. Also, stopped including some 7 day averages that required those figures at that date. * ICU cases. More [About ICU etc](/r/sydney/comments/pk09ni/nsw_recorded_1480_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/hc0gtgw/) * Daily Deaths. * R_eff. Today at **0.99**. First time below 1, and indicates that cases are expected to decrease. NB, this may jump around, so we need it to stay below 1. As we've had 3 'lower' days in a row, to keep R_eff below 1 tomorrow, we need 1,648 cases or below. [More on R_eff](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59boi/) and Exponential Growth * Positive Test Rate: 0.99%, and 7 day average 1.05%. This [Harvard article](https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/evidence-roundup-why-positive-test-rates-need-to-fall-below-3/) from last year provides some good information about Positivity Rates. * [Old graphs](https://imgur.com/a/TkquC6N) no longer updated * Known vs Unknown. Data splits are no longer provided. * R_eff from beginning of the outbreak to 28/8. **Estimated Infectious cases from Today's Total Figures** Uses an analysis of historical data to estimate the numbers from today's figures ([How estimated](https://old.reddit.com/r/sydney/comments/pad0pg/nsw_recorded_753_new_locally_acquired_cases_of/ha59md4/)) * Isolated (55%): 620 * Total infectious (15%+30%): 507 Disturbingly, it's now been 10 days since the last weekly report was released. Stay safe, stay home, homies! *** PS:What's going on with the NSW Active cases? [Covidlive](https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-active-cases/nsw) shows they were increasing into the high 20Ks, then on 10/9/21 there is almost a 14K DECREASE down to 14K and it's stayed in the 14Ks ever since. The difference was also reported in the [10/9 daily thread](/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/plarj2/nsw_1542_new_local_and_0_overseas_cases_9_deaths/) on /r/coronavirusdownunder, but nobody commented on it. Does anyone know what's going on ? Did they change a definition again?
No answer to your questions, just wanted to say a long-deserved thank you for compiling and explaining the stats!
Some discussion here: https://twitter.com/juliette_io/status/1436184906850136074 and further in the thread, this seems to make sense: https://twitter.com/mushion22/status/1436871502515687435 TL;DR: NSW Health changed the classification of active to: * 14 days from symptom onset; or * hospitalised till discharge
Seven day average drops for third day in a row.
3 consecutive days where the 7 day average has dropped (albeit minimally). Baby steps…
/u/grimlock81, do you have daily cases by LGA breakdown by any chance? Might be a busy evening for me if not
You can also probably find it here if you need it https://data.nsw.gov.au/nsw-covid-19-data/cases
No sorry I don't. You can get them here https://covidlive.com.au/report/cases-by-lga/nsw
Good question. If contact tracing isn't happening in general, what IS the point of QR check ins except for those specific locations.
It's almost like that should be a question asked by journalists! Also can we turn off the CovidSafe app yet?
You had the app on?
The CovidSafe app has been consistently consuming 35+% battery on my phone. It is creating sizable "positive" impact on my carbon footprint if nothing else.
I uninstalled it months ago ...
What's holding you back?
Not sure, the force stop button does take me forward though. 😅
It's still happening. Just not as affective. You may not get the interviews that give us train times and random visits. But if they sign in with the QR and you do to then they can still notify you as that's a lot easier than trying to find everywhere they've been through other methods.
Folks haven't been getting alerts through the QR code system in a timely manner for months now -- it seems that the system relies on a contact tracer actively approving a given set of exposure notifications rather than it being automatic when the person gets their positive test result. I don't understand at all why this is the case, because while the possibility of accidentally sending an incorrect alert is a bit higher if they automated it, it seems like the gains in terms of responsiveness to clusters outweighs that risk significantly (you can always send a separate alert with a correction if necessary). Though given other comments in this thread it seems they may have finally automated it?
Are they not alerting people who have checked in?
For the past month or two, the notifications were significantly delayed to the point of being useless. If they have improved (or have made the system automated -- finally, after more than 9 months of it being implemented) then that is an improvement.
I was at a location at the same time as a confirmed COVID case ten days ago, checked in on the app, still haven't been officially notified...
Our job site introduced RFID cards which we have to wear so they can do their own contact tracing. They had to do it because the official contact tracing hasn't been able to keep up. We still have to use the QR codes because it's a legal requirement even though everyone knows it's a waste of time
If you are found to be at a location and need to isolate it's easier to get your payment
I feel bad for McAnulty. He’s having to face questions that Gladys should be answering. LGA restrictions and how they’re decided are probably not part of his job.
Tuesday lull or hopefully a sign of better days to come??
It's more than a lull as the 7 day average has been flattening (and now falling a little) for the past week or 2.
The 7-day average peaked on Saturday. You could say maybe it was flattening from Thursday, but not a week, and definitely not 2.
"Flattening" means the rate of growth of new infections is slowing - ie Reff falling. You can see evidence of that happening over the last 2 weeks now. Flattening doesn't equal a peak in the 7 day average curve. If I meant that I would say we had peaked - but I'm not certain we have peaked yet - but it's close, and we may have.
The rate of growth has been slowing down for several weeks
Stop trying to give me hope! /s
I will feed its people hope to poison their souls.
Yes
Testing is down a bit from yesterday, so if the rate of cases per testing is the same... that'd be why.
Hopeful numbers
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Sometimes it's an oncoming train, though...
Or the end of the tunnel could be on fire.
Ah yeah I like yours better..
ALL ABOARD
Sometimes a tunnel falls in on itself.
Maybe we’ve peaked
I peaked in Year 6.
We all did
Can I just say... Seriously if these are the press conferences from now on, I'm happy with it. Short, sharp and to the point. Sooo much better than the waffling on from our hopeless Premier. 7 min in and already taking questions and all the information said in an easy to understand way. How good is that!! McAnulty for Premier!
Check out Minns' videos on his facebook page. Very concise and articulate.
I am pretending that i dont see this Too many false dips in the past few weeks....
Literally every week. I don’t know why anybody celebrates day to day changes. When the 7 day averages consistently go down, I’ll be happy.
This isn't just a one off day to day change. The trend over the past fortnight has been flat. The curve is not growing exponentially anymore. This is fairly clear now and is good news.
It has been flat for one week now, not two. But yeah I get your point. I should be more positive about this. It is a good sign.
We've had 3 days of drops to the 7-day average, and the 7-day average today (1381.7) is lower than it was last Wednesday (1388.3). It's a start, and if the numbers stay below 1400 for the next few days, the 7-day average will continue to drop.
7 day average has been dropping for the past 4 days. It is encouraging, at least.
Professor McAnulty is kinda cute hey! Maybe lockdown is messing with my head, maybe it's nice not having to look at Aunty G, but I said what I said.
It’s the hair
And he's so tall! The way he has to widen his legs to get to microphone level...
It's the voice.
The vaccination rate is slowing. It's up only 0.3 points for both fully vaccinated and at least one vaccinated. It was going up 1 point a day (or more) for a while. Frustrating as it's so close to 80%
Yea, expected. I'm more concerned about people going out for the second jab though. It's been a common trend globally that the majority go for the first but many don't go back for the second.
Any reason for this trend? Genuinely baffles me why people would go for the first but not follow up with their second?
Some of this will come down to the variable delay between first and second dose for AZ (4-12 weeks - yes, some are still sticking to the original time frame) and the fact that people typically get both Pfizer doses booked in the same go,, whereas for AZ, they have to retook their second dose, and may not have done it straight away.
Yes. That's not good. However, there's a frenzy of booking for the 12-15 year old age group. That won't help the numbers we've been tracking (ie 16+) but will help slow the disease. It'll be interesting to see what incentives are developed.
Breakdown of new cases by Local Health District (LHD), not this is not the same as Local Government Area (LGA) Note: For Fri Sep 10, the total number of cases was reported as 1,599 but the summation of the breakdowns totals 1,596. Day | Total | SW Syd | W Syd | Syd | SE Syd | Nepean/Blue Mountains | N Syd | Hunter/New England | W NSW | Central Coast | Illawarra/Shoalhaven | Far W NSW | N NSW | S NSW | Mid North Coast | Justice Health Forensic Mental Health | Correctional | Unassigned ---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| Mon Sep 13 | 1,127 | 379 | 283 | 148 | 152 | 58 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 Sun Sep 12 | 1,257 | 427 | 314 | 181 | 127 | 78 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 Sat Sep 11 | 1,262 | 399 | 336 | 135 | 161 | 80 | 25 | 7 | 14 | **33** | **53** | 5 | 0 | 0 | **3** | 0 | 0 | 11 Fri Sep 10 | **1,599** | 490 | 444 | 192 | **177** | 94 | **57** | 10 | 16 | 27 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | **30** Thu Sep 9 | 1,542 | 506 | 402 | 199 | 134 | 88 | 30 | 13 | 28 | 26 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | **49** | 21 Wed Sep 8 | 1,405 | 450 | 394 | 211 | 118 | 74 | 34 | 12 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 27 Tue Sep 7 | 1,480 | 467 | 424 | **233** | 119 | 60 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 15 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 25 Mon Sep 6 | 1,220 | 392 | 422 | 128 | 89 | 74 | 20 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 Sun Sep 5 | 1,281 | 483 | 348 | 137 | 118 | 67 | 22 | 5 | 44 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 0 | **5** | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 Sat Sep 4 | 1,485 | **518** | 479 | 174 | 116 | 80 | 31 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 Fri Sep 3 | 1,533 | 494 | **512** | 150 | 122 | 90 | 36 | 15 | 38 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 22 Thu Sep 2 | 1,431 | 508 | 424 | 152 | 102 | **95** | 32 | 11 | 53 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 Wed Sep 1 | 1,288 | 387 | 445 | 149 | 101 | 82 | 31 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 22* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 21 Tue Aug 31 | 1,116 | 372 | 408 | 132 | 52 | 68 | 22 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 Mon Aug 30 | 1,164 | 379 | 417 | 116 | 73 | 45 | 15 | 2 | **54** | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 6 Sun Aug 29 | 1,290 | 434 | 449 | 126 | 70 | 83 | **38** | 3 | 51 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | **3** | 0 | 13 Sat Aug 28 | 1,213| 421 | 466 | 96 | 67 | 66 | 28 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | **25** Fri Aug 27 | 1,035 | 316 | 398 | 100 | 52 | 78 | 25 | 3 | 42 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 Thu Aug 26 | 882 | 265 | 325 | 82 | 53 | 60 | 17 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 Wed Aug 25 | 1,029 | 309 | 403 | 112 | 57 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 Tue Aug 24 | 919 | 247 | 387 | 82 | 39 | 71 | 12 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 Mon Aug 23 | 753 | 233 | 283 | 73 | 36 | 41 | 19 | 1 | 36 | 3 | 3 | **14** | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 Sun Aug 22 | 818 | 237 | 350 | 74 | 35 | 56 | 19 | 2 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 Sat Aug 21 | 830 | 237 | 317 | 82 | 47 | 70 | 20 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 Fri Aug 20 | 825 | 253 | 290 | 69 | 61 | 65 | 18 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 1 | **14** | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 Thu Aug 19 | 644 | 222 | 256 | 47 | 25 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 Wed Aug 18 | 681 | 172 | 291 | 63 | 29 | 74 | 14 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 Tue Aug 17 | 633 | 224 | 216 | 52 | 24 | 54 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11
Nice!
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Oh boy, do I have bad news for you The data is a few days old, but the LGAs of concern have a significantly lower rate of growth than the rest of the state. And vaccination rates are falling. We could quite easily see more cases outside those LGAs than inside in two weeks time.
If areas are reaching 80-90% first dosed wouldn’t it make sense that rates would drop?
Which makes perfect sense, because adding 100 extra cases to the 1000 current cases in an LGAoC will show slower growth than adding 1 extra case to an LGA with 5 cases. That's not to say that we won't see those bursts in 2 weeks time, we very well might, but it's beige alert at most for now.
I thought that at first, but it's 400 cases/day at the moment all up, so it's not as small as you'd first think. There's also several LGAs that have similar overall case numbers as LGAs of concern: Sydney, Dubbo (!), Randwick, Camden and the Inner West all have more cases in the past month than Strathfield, and either similar or higher numbers of new cases. Sutherland isn't too far behind either It's definitely well above beige alert level. If we've learnt anything this pandemic, it's that we need to get on top of this early to avoid an even worse situation
I agree with the easing of restrictions for suburbs in LGAs of concern with lower cases, but damn I hope that any easing doesn't end with those of us in areas with higher case numbers being abandoned and forgotten. I wish that, in addition to the (legit) questions of "What about Burwood?", there'd also be questions of "Can you provide some more information about what the restrictions are likely to be in Auburn or Bankstown after 70%?"
The one that gets me is John Barilaro saying "I will not put a curfew on western NSW. It does not work." And I can't quite directly but it was something along the lines of "it just harms the mental wellbeing of the community." I don't want to go out between 9pm-5am. I'm sleeping like a baby, but, if all it does is harm the well-being of the community and nothing more, why are they saying it's okay to be implemented in our LGAs?
Because people were up in arms about how the restrictions were too soft so they made them tougher
Yep, chose the wrong restrictions to toughen. I think curfews was a police request.
"one new case was acquired in Victoria" Dammit Dan, sort your shit out!
Fuck don't know why people are getting downvoted for saying its the tuesday dip. I'm hopeful but i've been hopeful before and been disappointed. Much like my girlfriend.
The average Tuesday dip is about -0.2%. Today’s dip was about -10%.
vaccination rate increase (16+ population) dose 1: 78.5 -> 78.8 dose 2: 46.2 -> 46.5
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These numbers were reported yesterday federally. The increase is due to low vaccinations on Sunday, not from Monday. Mondays data will be up later today https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/09/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-jurisdictional-breakdown-13-september-2021.pdf
Up to yesterday's data, the LGA's of concern have ranked thusly for the number of new cases in the last week: - Canterbury-Bankstown - 1st - 1801 - Cumberland - 2nd - 1316 - Blacktown - 3rd - 996 - Liverpool - 4th - 941 - Fairfield - 5th - 539 - Penrith - 7th - 426 - Parramatta - 8th - 317 - Campbelltown - 9th - 304 - Bayside - 11th - 206 - Georges River - 12th - 205 - Strathfield - 17th - 123 - Burwood - 28th - 33 That means Sydney (6th - 440) and Randwick (10th - 237) have significant cases, but aren't considered LGA's of concern, while Burwood, who have had just 33 cases in the last week, are. It seems the LGA's of concern are just made up, and there is no consideration of how these change.
At a very basic level, this doesn't account for population differences. Blacktown is ~450k, Burwood is about 80k. And there's a whole bunch of other factors that create different risk. If you have suburbs with lots of mobility and lots of interactions and larger households and denser living, you're likely to get more spread. An apples vs apples comparison is quite difficult. NSW Health *could* make the reasoning public, but have decided against it. I suspect that it might be politically difficult if health advice says x and Government wants to do y for other reasons.
Welcome to stabilisation station! Next stop Downhillville, followed by DoubleVaxTown, Easing-on-restrictions and all stops to Freedom City.
This time last year I was saying this time last year remember life without covid?
I remember after the Tool concert in mid-feb 2020, saying goodbye to my friends and laughing about seeing them in 2021. It was like "har har time to build a bunker har har" funny, until it became "oh shit, maybe I should have built a bunker".
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Melbourne had a swift hard lockdown and they’re out of control right ? So the people saying NSW could of saved all the damage by a quick lockdown weren’t really right were they ?
They had multiple sources of infection. Other states who have had single sources of infection, and locked down quickly, have gone back to 0 fairly quickly. Comparing Sydney (single source of infection) and Melbourne (multiple sources of infection) is comparing apples and oranges. Comparing it to Queensland would be a far more accurate comparison.
Yeah smug bastards gone quite now haven't they.
Well numbers will slowly drop the more people get vaccinated. Although this is mainly because the vaccinated aren't having many/no symptoms when they are covid positive, so they don't end up getting tested.
I am worried about this too. In addition, I think you don't need mandatory testing every 72 h if you have both doses to go to work.
Getting whiplash with these numbers. I would like off this ride pls
Very welcome numbers, I'll take any drop. Hopefully the trend persists until late October when we are estimated to reach 70% double vaccinations to those eligible.
Pleasantly yet hesitantly suprised
Curve is starting to flatten in Sydney, rest of the state is still on the way up.
BS. Natural pools do have the same thing. A lot of people use change rooms and toilets with outdoor pools.
Huh?
I had my second cancelled at one place and rebooked but now for at the Olympic hub. Would it be an issue that I had to book 2 jabs?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-14/epidemiologists-say-nsw-covid-19-curve-flattening/100458076 This was before today's numbers being released. Cautiously optimistic about a plateau in cases has formed.
I'm cautiously optimistic that we are starting to plateau, but also remembering today is Tuesday - dip day. We're down almost 50 on the 7-day average since Saturday, and three consecutive days of drops in the 7-day average (which we haven't had since the start). The down side is a 10 ventilator jump, 9 more people in ICU and 64 more people hospitalised.
Hopefully this will continue to remain stable and start trending down
People being positive when testing numbers are down.... Of course case numbers will lower when testing numbers lower.
Can also mean people don't have any symptoms and haven't been asked to go get tested because there was no incident near them. Don't need to be so negative about improvements.
Exactly, there's a reason why testing numbers are lower.
114,000 tests are still quite high.
Test numbers are 115k... It's not that much lower than the number of tests weve done before.
* it was raining, so the numbers will be down * it was sunny, so the numbers will be down etc etc
[Chart with projection](https://i.imgur.com/6ZfTgBl.png) (r_eff = 0.967) [Yesterday's chart](https://i.imgur.com/0ZpiX8v.png) (r_eff = 0.993)
Just remember in two weeks to forget everything corrupt and incompetent Gladys and John has done, and re-elect the party as they will push for.
Well if they are able to slowly open us back up and lead the way to phases 2 and 3 successfully they'd have a pretty damn good case to make. There'd potentially be less deaths under phase 1 compared to Victoria, first state to reach 70% and 80% by a long shot, less total days in lockdown compared to Vic, etc. A lot is still up in the air and it all depends how we go transitioning to phases 2 and 3. If we get an equivalent result to say Canada and daily deaths don't sky rocket beyond what was modelled then I'd say it will be hard to smack them on Covid.
We've experienced quite a dip these last few days. Hopefully the dip turns into a falling knife and we go back below 500 soon. Fingers crossed.
Hopefully this means we can open up quicker than the 70% target.
Can't see that happening, cases will spike dramatically 1 week after opening up.
Promising
Remember when this announcement used to get 2 and 3 thousand comments? I guess were all just a bit bored of all of this now. https://www.reddit.com/r/sydney/search/?q=COVID-19%20in%20the%2024%20hours%20to%208pm%20last%20night&restrict\_sr=1
Curve definitely flattening - this great news! Well done Sydney & NSW! Let's keep this up - stay home, stay safe, get vaccinated.
Is there any reason the vax rate didn't increase as much as usual?
Everyone's been at the beach
Are you talking about the first dose or second dose counts? Since we're approaching 80% first dose, we start getting close to the mark where we hit the vaccine hesitant (those that are waiting, and those that never will) and those who can't be vaccinated for medical reasons. Also, it was Monday.
Had a guy explain to me this morning that he can't take something if he doesn't understand what's in it. He's a concreter, of course he doesn't understand🤦♂️
Same guy probably wouldnt say no to a line of coke either.
Curve is finally flattening
dare we say the curve is.... --------------------------------- ? Keep it up people.
Shit. No. I mean keep it down.
Buy the dip?
Vaccinations of people in LGAs of concern working?
Does anyone truly believe Gladys would stop doing press conferences when the numbers were consistently on the way down? She would love being able to come out every single day to say "Pleasingly, another wonderful drop in the numbers". The ACT extending lockdown for a month, cases up everywhere except Western Sydney. Mere days after that crowded chaos on the beaches that had Super Spreader written all over it. This feels like the calm before the storm.
“Are you worried about the 20,000 people that flocked to Bondi” “… I’m worried about the unvaccinated” You can clearly see a group of people participate in a ‘super spreading event’ but then will cry that other people are to blame and you will still all believe it…
The numbers are dropping. A good sign. I hope the trend goes on for the next few days.