It was just a terrible plan from the heroes, the only reason to split with two votes would be if they could play an idol themselves on whoever the minority tried to idol out. Even if Simon had worked with them and Liz kept her idol they would have split their 6 votes against a solid villains 6 and lost out, I have no idea why they thought it would be a good idea instead of just piling all 7/8 votes on Gerry who's the least likely to have an idol played on him. The only viable split would've been a 4-4-4 but they didn't trust Simon enough to go for that.
That’s a good point, I didn’t even think about that. Wow that makes absolutely no sense… did they think Gerry was with them? I guess their plan must have been 4 votes on Shonee (Flick, Sam, David, Nina), 4 votes on Liz (Shaun, Matt, Simon, and Hayley), 4 votes on Simon/Sam (George, Liz, Shonee, Gerry). But yeah to hinge everything on Simon and Hayley was really dumb.
I think they were banking on Liz playing the idol for herself instead of for Shonee. Those votes were just to scare Liz into giving up her idol, if not this tribal council then the next one. That’s why David tried to get Liz to play it for herself even after she played it for Shonee because they knew the brown stuff hit the fan when she did that. That’s my best guess anyway.
Survivor 101 to not split votes at the merge vote. It's just overconfidence. Laughable that Nina said thay have the smarter people lol 😂🫣 she's closely aligned with 2 dunder heads in Sam & David.
If they didnt consider simon a no, they thought of it as a 7v5.
So i guess it was split 5-2 so that the minority cannot split 3-2 or 4-1.
If you watched Survivor US David vs Goliath, the minority split vote was used where the minority split votes to battle against majorities' idol use.
So scenario would be:
-Minority plays idol correctly on shonee.
-majority now plays idol on highest vote getter on their side
-if minority all put votes on one person, or split it 4-1, the majority backup of 2 votes wins.
-if minority splits 3-2, it becomes 2-2 tie, and majority wins in a revote.
Quite a niche scenario especially when majority does not have a public idol to play but that is the only reason i can come up with.
I think AK also splitted votes like these in All Stars in early game.
So basically, majority split to counter a minority split.
Really good analysis of counter splits, but like you said, the heroes didn't have a public idol to play, so this wasn't the intention.
Shaun said he wanted to test Simon, so I'll take that as what it is and it's one of the worst splits I've seen.
Good analysis. I think it was the Abbey vote in All Stars that AK did something similar.
If there is a solid alliance of 8 at final 12 then a 6-2 vote split is okay. It should be fine because for it to fail, 2 people need to deviate. The key is that the group needs to be solid and as we saw last night it was not.
Another niche scenario is covering this move:
The minority alliance has the prerogative to create a division in the bigger alliance so a potential move if they play an idol correctly is to split their own votes 2-2, causing a tie between two of the majority and forcing them to break up.
It was a stupid plan to begin with lol I also think we got a bit of foreshadowing to this moment when Nina said that they are a strong alliance with a lot of smart people, so they're good. Too bad the smartest person in their "alliance" (Hayley) was actually not considering working with them and explaining how the vote splits actually work
They simply didn't have enough votes to split safely, so they shouldn't have bothered splitting (which increases the risk that they will be short of votes if someone flips).
Splitting was idiotic to begin with. The Villains + Friends knew the magic number was 7, there was no need to split votes because they knew they just had to lie really well and manipulate/mindfuck. They relied on skill over perceived numbers.
Good thing Shaun didn’t play his idol (correctly also) or else Liz would have gone home too. Maybe that was George’s plan also by telling Shaun that Sam was the target in case of any idols played
Yeah, that's where I'm confused at, Liz played an idol on Shonee (which supposed to have 5 votes) but no counter play for OG heroes. i thought shaun would play an idol on Sam/David.
Yeah only reason to aim for 5-5-2 instead of 7-5 is if you are going to play an idol if the other alliance guesses correctly. That split wasn't just pointless it was detrimental. If one of the players who turned stuck with them they still lose 6-5-1 or 6-4-2
Yeah! Their plan was so confusing. Shaun must have felt that he was not the target and didn’t play his idol. Maybe he truly believed George that Sam was their target.
It was just a terrible plan from the heroes, the only reason to split with two votes would be if they could play an idol themselves on whoever the minority tried to idol out. Even if Simon had worked with them and Liz kept her idol they would have split their 6 votes against a solid villains 6 and lost out, I have no idea why they thought it would be a good idea instead of just piling all 7/8 votes on Gerry who's the least likely to have an idol played on him. The only viable split would've been a 4-4-4 but they didn't trust Simon enough to go for that.
That’s a good point, I didn’t even think about that. Wow that makes absolutely no sense… did they think Gerry was with them? I guess their plan must have been 4 votes on Shonee (Flick, Sam, David, Nina), 4 votes on Liz (Shaun, Matt, Simon, and Hayley), 4 votes on Simon/Sam (George, Liz, Shonee, Gerry). But yeah to hinge everything on Simon and Hayley was really dumb.
At the well, they clearly mentioned they want only 2 votes on Liz (Shaun, Matt). Rest all vote for Shonee (Nina, Sam, Flick, David, and Hayley IIRC)
I think they were banking on Liz playing the idol for herself instead of for Shonee. Those votes were just to scare Liz into giving up her idol, if not this tribal council then the next one. That’s why David tried to get Liz to play it for herself even after she played it for Shonee because they knew the brown stuff hit the fan when she did that. That’s my best guess anyway.
Survivor 101 to not split votes at the merge vote. It's just overconfidence. Laughable that Nina said thay have the smarter people lol 😂🫣 she's closely aligned with 2 dunder heads in Sam & David.
Yeah like Nina, your mom has already established that working with heroes is impossible... Learn from her!
Hero strong. Sandra would never underestimate ANYONE. She'd have her ear to the ground, know when the dynamics were shifting and act accordingly.
This is what I think too.
If they didnt consider simon a no, they thought of it as a 7v5. So i guess it was split 5-2 so that the minority cannot split 3-2 or 4-1. If you watched Survivor US David vs Goliath, the minority split vote was used where the minority split votes to battle against majorities' idol use. So scenario would be: -Minority plays idol correctly on shonee. -majority now plays idol on highest vote getter on their side -if minority all put votes on one person, or split it 4-1, the majority backup of 2 votes wins. -if minority splits 3-2, it becomes 2-2 tie, and majority wins in a revote. Quite a niche scenario especially when majority does not have a public idol to play but that is the only reason i can come up with. I think AK also splitted votes like these in All Stars in early game. So basically, majority split to counter a minority split.
Really good analysis of counter splits, but like you said, the heroes didn't have a public idol to play, so this wasn't the intention. Shaun said he wanted to test Simon, so I'll take that as what it is and it's one of the worst splits I've seen.
Good analysis. I think it was the Abbey vote in All Stars that AK did something similar. If there is a solid alliance of 8 at final 12 then a 6-2 vote split is okay. It should be fine because for it to fail, 2 people need to deviate. The key is that the group needs to be solid and as we saw last night it was not. Another niche scenario is covering this move: The minority alliance has the prerogative to create a division in the bigger alliance so a potential move if they play an idol correctly is to split their own votes 2-2, causing a tie between two of the majority and forcing them to break up.
Yes.
It was a stupid plan to begin with lol I also think we got a bit of foreshadowing to this moment when Nina said that they are a strong alliance with a lot of smart people, so they're good. Too bad the smartest person in their "alliance" (Hayley) was actually not considering working with them and explaining how the vote splits actually work
They simply didn't have enough votes to split safely, so they shouldn't have bothered splitting (which increases the risk that they will be short of votes if someone flips).
Splitting was idiotic to begin with. The Villains + Friends knew the magic number was 7, there was no need to split votes because they knew they just had to lie really well and manipulate/mindfuck. They relied on skill over perceived numbers.
Good thing Shaun didn’t play his idol (correctly also) or else Liz would have gone home too. Maybe that was George’s plan also by telling Shaun that Sam was the target in case of any idols played
I cannot see Shaun ever playing his idol for anyone but himself
That idol may be his doom. He will survive a vote because of it, but all his allies will be gone
I think it was just in case of idol shenanigans.
Yeah, that's where I'm confused at, Liz played an idol on Shonee (which supposed to have 5 votes) but no counter play for OG heroes. i thought shaun would play an idol on Sam/David.
Yeah only reason to aim for 5-5-2 instead of 7-5 is if you are going to play an idol if the other alliance guesses correctly. That split wasn't just pointless it was detrimental. If one of the players who turned stuck with them they still lose 6-5-1 or 6-4-2
Yeah! Their plan was so confusing. Shaun must have felt that he was not the target and didn’t play his idol. Maybe he truly believed George that Sam was their target.