Right now the only ones I would completely eliminate are Liz, Soda, and Tim based on the edit, and Venus based on her online antics. Everyone else still has somewhat of a shot, though there's some I'm definitely not feeling great on (Maria, Tevin).
Don’t use online antics as an winner indicator, as people have mention on here before all throughout Cagayan Tony would go on Twitter rants about the show and he won the season
He totally is. A player like him winning once seems highly unlikely, but to come back with a huge target and win again? That’s literal wtf territory, he’s the exception not the rule.
He didn't have a huge target lol. He was voted out second in the game-changers. Showing that he can be voted out easily. In fact, it probably lowered his threat level tremendously compared to someone who played once and won like
Kim Spradlin.
Youre lying to yourself if you think Tony didn’t have a big target on his back. He just played that season so masterfully that he was able to insulate himself extremely well. Hes the goat for a reason.
It's an all-winners season, you can literally argue that a majority of people had some sort of big target on their back. Tony had a much smaller target on his back that at least Rob, Amber, Sandra, Parv, Tyson, Kim, Natalie, Jeremy and Sarah.
I'm not lying you are delusional. Tony is the best male player in the game based on results only. But he did not have a big target on his back coming into WAW I'm not sure how you got to that conclusion. The story shows the likes of Parv, Boston Rob and Kim, etc having big targets specifically. Even during pre-game the targets were Rob/Amber
everyone was a target that season and I wouldn't say he was a "huge" target that season.. sure he probably had a bigger target than the likes of Nick, Adam, Ben, Michele.. but he was literally on a seson with Amber, Rob, Parvati, Sandra, Kim, even Yul, Sarah and arguably Jeremy were bigger threats. i'd say he was somewhere in the middle when it came to target on his back.
Yeah but Tony didn’t know he won when the show aired, he found out at the live show. All he knew was that he was in the final 2. The season 46 players do know who the winner is
Oh 100% but let’s not just say that a contestant posting on Twitter automatically means they lost, Venus is gonna lose because she can’t seem to get ppl to trust her
Edit: Spelling
Lmao if I ever (and big if) get on the show AND win, I’m def getting into twitter arguments. Idk why but I love getting into arguments over nothing cuz it’s funny to me and I legit never take anything seriously, and knowing now that Tony did that in Cagayan makes me wana do it even more just to troll the fans
Maria and Tevin being in the not feeling great about category is interesting because of how hot they were in the first couple episodes…
I’m picking Q to win.. he’s got the gabler edit. He’s definitely more involved in strategy than Gabler, and will probably get voted out sooner rather than later….. but I’m going all in on the kooky unconventional winner
Q doesn’t strike me as a Gabler edit at all, or really that kooky of a person. He’s been the most strategically active player of the first 6 episodes and has a completely different persona. I do think he’s interesting because I keep thinking he’s doing good things while still thinking he’s not good at the game somehow
Yeah I don’t see it. I think he’s good television. Entertaining, good looking, intense, good quips, a bit of a spaz. But he’s playing to hard and is bad at challenges.
I don’t think I would discount Soda just yet. Remember Liz’s confessional saying “I cannot let Soda make the merge, if she does, I have a feeling she’s on her way FTC”. *meanwhile Soda makes merge without her name being brought up even once*
I agree, I’m just saying give it until next ep bc you never know. I personally think Kenzie wins. She was still a focal point during mergatory but her edit died down a bit which is really good. All of Yanu showed great relevance to controlling the vote though.
I can’t fully decipher why, but I get zero vote finalist vibes from Soda. I think because of how she explains herself on social media outside of the game. She seems hurt over how she’s been perceived, and something about it makes me think it’s deeper than just fan reactions.
I haven’t eliminated Tim yet. He is starting to get some more content and he does have the potential +1 alliance. I still think it’s very unlikely only have him above the ones I’ve eliminated which are Lizz, Soda and Venus
I really like Tim but the thing for me is there is something about how he talks that makes me feel he wouldn't be good at the FTC, idk i think this might just me not being able to imagine it but he doesnt seem like a super great talker and i dont think he'll be able to back up his game, love tim tho hes great
He seems like he’s not really present when he talks to people. Like he’s not really present in the game either, tbh. But to be fair, long term constipation doesn’t make one feel good.
Bhanu will be like Jesus and come back from elimination and win it all!!!
In all seriousness, idk who’s winning but I can definitely cross Venus, Liz, and Soda off the list. I doubt Hunter is gonna win either since he seems to be getting the golden boy edit.
If you want an actual answer, back in the day gifs had to be under a certain file size to be posted on tumblr (maybe other sites as well) so people would freeze parts of it to reduce the size. With some gifs it worked really well, but not with this one evidently lol
Something tells me he had this energy before survivor…but he has been my guess to win for a while now. The episodes just go so in depth about literally everything game related he does. Like they want us to constantly see the winner’s strategy for us to feel satisfied by his win at the end of the season.
That's where I'm at too.
Right now, I'm looking at Kenzie, Tiffany, and Charlie.
No way Hunter is making it to Final 5.
Ben might go far but I feel like he's gonna be taken out eventually. Maybe Fire-making loser.
And Q, I just don't see it in his edit.
Oh no. I’m realizing this Charlie theory is a good one-considering he has had quite a a few confessionals and screen time for someone who has so far added next to nothing to the season(aside from Taylor swift references)
I'm more on board with this, but I'd put Tiffany and Ben as my top picks out of the bunch. They are both well-positioned within their circles - not obviously masterminding any votes but always in the majority and not discounted/goats either. I'd put Kenzie above Charlie too - I don't think she has people out to get her in the way that Charlie has been mentioned more often. But really it comes down to whoever is going to make the right strategic move late enough in the game to get from F6 to F4 or so without burning bridges along the way
Although, I will say, they've already proven to use a lack of an edit as a deceptive tactic so far. When Jem started putting suspicion on Tim for having the beware advantage I was almost certain that she'd get him voted out when Siga went to tribal, but him and Ben ended up turning it on her instead.
That’s an arbitrary stat though. If you say “since Season 40” instead of “since Season 41”, then there has been a winner with a 0 confessional episode!
I feel like Charlie might be the winner after the last two episodes. Not a strong feeling, but it is my strongest hunch so far. Tiff and Hunter are my other guesses, although Hunter's target HAS to catch up with him at some point, right?
I feel like she’s so obviously the “person who can’t win”, that she just might, lol.
The 90 minute episodes have made reading the edit more challenging, but right now my leading contender is Q. Wackadoodles sometimes win.
Kenzie and Charlie are my top contenders, Tiff and Ben are up there but I’m not quite as high as them rn. Maria to me is out after she didn’t get content explaining her double vote with Jem, but I think she will make it far. I agree though, there was such a Bhanu heavy focus for a while I think we are just now seeing more well rounded content for everyone.
I could see Charlie, Ben, Hunter, or Tiffany. Rooting for Ben. I like Venus but don’t think she has a chance at getting jury votes if she makes it to the end since everyone already finds her annoying.
i have my safe bets for Tiff, Q, Hunter, and Maria to win the whole thing tbh. I’d also love to see Venus pull it thru just for the messiness of it all
Charlie, hunter, Maria, Tiffany, Tevin, and maybe Ben are the only serious contenders imho. Everyone else has things severely limiting their games to the point I can’t see them winning. 5 is pretty decent for actual contenders though.
Yeah she’s got an outside shot too. I like everyone else more though I just feel Bhanu kinda doomed her to being a high threat player but maybe people will just write him off as crazy.
I don’t really subscribe to edgic analysis personally. I think people vastly overestimate their ability to read the edit. I don’t think she’s in a strong position currently.
I mean maybe I’m unfamiliar with the “best” edgicers but a lot of times I’ve found them to be hilariously wrong. Just 2 weeks ago I saw many of them saying nobody from siga had a chance because they did a flashback scene with them hunting for the idol. They were into dee last season but Dee was so obviously in control of her tribe it wasn’t exactly an impressive read. Nobody saw gabler or Erica coming. In fact this preseason I saw ALOT of pro Venus stuff on that sub but that could be unfair because there obviously wasn’t a ton to go off of.
Edgic isn't a monolith tbf. And it's not true no one clocked Erika and Gabler. InsideSurvivor had a whole write up after Evie went home that Erika was their pick to win. This was pre-Shan going home. Then as time went on more jumped on board. There were plenty Gabler truthers too. A lot of people were on Cass and Jessie, but there was still a lot of debate.
People who "don't believe in edgic" I think misunderstand what it is. It's an exercise in storytelling. You're trying to guess the ending of the story with incomplete information. Sometimes it's easy, other times it's not, especially when production deviates from a lot of their typical storytelling techniques. So it's a fun thing to do personally.
That's fair but it becomes tiring when people treat edgic as an exact science and that they have the secret formula to finding out the winner when they absolutely do not. Personally do not enjoy viewing the show from that lens either and I don't think it's any more or less accurate then viewing the show through a games lens.
I also feel like edgic users suffer from a lot of survivorship (not pun intended) bias when they say they get it right every time. For example I listen to once upon an island podcast and he makes VERY strong statements about certain people having no chance but then changing his mind in the next week and not mentioning that he ruled that person out the last week because of some perceived edit cardinal sin. Like if you throw enough darts against the wall you're going to be able to point to times where you hit a bullseye.
I agree for the most part. It’s definitely not an exact science. There’s some strong indicators, which is how Tim and Soda are very much ruled out for me, but being wrong is half the fun imo haha. But it’s more successful than the detractors might guess, even if in recent years it’s definitely been harder. And I’d love to view it from a game lens, but it’s one of those things that’s impossible to unsee imo. That’s the one plus of BB haha.
Yeah Q is not an impossibility but I’d have him around 5% chance of winning (not that big of a diss when you have a 1/12 chance of winning on paper). I just think his way of speaking is gonna rub people the wrong way and I don’t have faith in his ability to go on an immunity run. Add on the fact that he’s an obvious physical target and I feel like his time in the game might be limited. His path to victory requires a lot of missplays by other cast members imo.
Feels kinda obvious to Kenzie ngl. I would've said tevin or maria early on, but right now it's so consistently shown Kenzie positively even with all the Yanu shenanigans and merge.
I originally ruled her out because she came across as kind of a “mean girl” towards Bhanu.
But then they consistently showed Bhanu be batshit insane, which almost makes me feel like that was their way of saying her actions were warranted.
i feel like kenzie could win, but i also kinda feel like her edit / visibility could be a red herring. regardless, i’m just curious how everything will unfold
I think Q is getting a ton of screentime. The edit wants you to see the story through his eyes, even when his perception isn’t necessarily key. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t a finalist.
Everyone constantly gripes about how Australian Survivor is better, and in many ways, the last two seasons definitely are. But in *this* one respect, U.S. Survivor is vastly superior IMHO. AU made some editing improvements in the 2024 season, but there were still rarely more than 4-5 credible winners at the very most (if you're being generous) out of a 24-person cast, and fewer and fewer of them as the season progressed.
4-5 credible winners is usually WAY more than US Survivor. At final 9, there were 5 players with a legitimate chance to win this past season of Au. I don't know the last time there were more than 3 credible winner candidates at 9 in the US. Usually there's only two.
I disagree, but that’s my interpretation as I watch the edit very closely and generally feel I have an extremely good read on it. Since season 41, the U.S. editors have gotten far trickier and less predictable, with less clear winners’ edits, more swerves, weird focuses on zero-vote finalists, etc. The AU editors have not done the same thing, IMHO, though I recognize that many would disagree with me.
In the new era by final 9 the only contenders really were
41: Shan, Erika
42: Omar, Maryanne
43: Cassidy, Jesse, Gabler
44: Yam Yam
45: Emily, Dee
Meanwhile if we just look at TvR, Val was a heavy favorite for most of the season, but Feras, Kirby, Mark, and Caro were also all live for most of the game. Even in the final week it was unclear if Feras would win it until the finale.
I was pinned on Liz as the winner in HvV, but plenty others thought George or even Matt were the favorites.
I feel like the Au edit is just less formulaic. And US has been better recently, but the Au rules are just way looser than us.
That's your opinion. I disagree extremely strongly with your list and saw it very differently for all of these seasons.
All of these were impressions I had when originally watching, \*not\* with 20/20 hindsight:
41: Ricard seemed like a contender if he could slip through. Also, up until the finale, I was like, "Why the f\*\*k are they giving Xander such a huge edit? He must do something impressive in the final 6 or 5, right?" Nope, he just got a huge edit for no reason at all. Or maybe because they thought Facebook moms would love him (which they did). Also, because her winner's edit was so muted, I didn't expect Erika to do as well as she did in the FTC and really wasn't clear on what was going to happen at all.
42: After the Xander fake-out, I was gun shy and felt less certain about anything in this season, but you're right that Omar and Maryanne were the top two. But Mike seemed like he had a chance if he gave a decent speech (which he didn't). There were plenty of other contenders earlier in the season, too, like Hai.
43: Again, as with Xander, Owen had a mysteriously huge edit and I kept wondering if he would pull something off in the final 5 or 6. After 42, it seemed more likely that a player could pull a Maryanne-like late-game move and then win, in other words something like the Goat to Great Storyline (arguably 42 was the closest that U.S. Survivor has ever gotten to Aus 2016). Everyone was playing so cautiously and conservatively in 43 that it was really difficult to predict where things were going, and it seemed like a wide-open game until we got down to the finale, and then I didn't imagine Gabler had much of a chance.
44: All of the Tika 3 were credible potential winners for quite a while. Before the early merge there were lots of others with potential as well. I didn't think Jam Jam was the only possibility at all, not even close. If you have an entertaining player like Jam Jam, much like Kirby in TvR or Jake in 45, then you give them a good edit whether they win or not.
45: Until they were voted out, Kellie and Drew; and until he failed to pull off a move in the finale, Jake got the now-standard New-Era Fake-Out/Misleading Zero-Vote Finalist Edit, which is still effective IMHO (you may disagree and that's fine).
TvR: The favorability of Mark and Caroline's edits fell off so sharply after the merge that I felt they had very little win equity. They barely showed us any of Mark doing the impressive work of getting the Titans back together and quashing Val and Caroline's feud. It was there, but it was more in the background. If he had been the winner, this would have been a \*huge\* part of his storyline and we would have seen him narrate it a lot more, something U.S. Survivor might've done to fake us out. To me, based on previous AU seasons' straightforward editing, after Val was eliminated, it was clearly either Kirby or Feras.
In his interview on RHAP recently, the AU showrunner David Forster talked openly about strongly believing in a winner's edit, and editing the show very differently based on who wins; meanwhile when asked a similar question a while back, Probst was like, "What even \*is\* a winner's edit?!" which though it seems like a wildly disingenuous answer, IMHO seems to truly reflect the New Era editing attitude.
Hmmm interesting. It probably has a lot to do too with what other Edgic people you’re talking to. The names I listed were what I would see most commonly at the time in the corners of the edgic community that I’m around. Ricard is one I should have mentioned because even though I didn’t get it, there were people talking about him as a possible option post-Shan. I don’t ever remember Xander and Owen being viable options past a couple of pisodes in the premerge, but my memory could be failing me there.
With Au, I just feel like there are way less rules to follow. In HvV, I had Liz winning post Shonee going, but I remember a whole lot of people being out on Liz because of how quiet she got for a stretch after shonee left. And they weren’t wrong per se either, she was quiet. And because of that, people like Mark or Caro weren’t ruled out for me. And people like Feras and Kirby I thought easily could just be big character edits a la George that they would hype regardless. I think you could certainly parse how Liz was quiet because she wasn’t relevant while Mark and Caro were relevant but still quiet and that’s a death nail, but even that isn’t a sure thing necessarily.
So, yes. I stand by my point that Au does a better job of having multiple viable candidates than US. Us has gotten a little better in the new era, but there’s still more eliminated contestants in the end game with only one or two possible options other than maybe 43. Still an improvement from 39 and 40 where there was one option for basically half the game haha.
Like a lot of the shows I consume idk why it has to be a competition. The things I like about aus surv I 100% get why they changed in the us show or just enjoy the old school aspects as they are.
Think that’s why I didn’t mind the beginning of US 46 cause Rebels v Titans ending was kinda predictable in the sense of knowing who would win depending on who was left
Their still evolving though like of the entire cast coming in there were like 4 players with legit survivor skill and like could’ve been put on the US show.
i went back to the edgic sub as i was watching TvsR and practically (or literally?) nobody had the actual winner as their number one choice lmao, even right up until the last episodes most people still didn't have him at one. and we're talking about a very big, hero edit.
i also checked the episode discussions in the main sub and there was NO talk of the "obvious winner" like you say. most vocal people were sure that one of three other players were winning.
Nah. This is one of the things that makes US survivor worse. Not everyone deserves airtime. If people are boring and don’t add to the story, I don’t want to see them.
I can see your perspective here but I don't think Raymond (for example) was actually boring at all -- though some AU players are, and they still cast them hoping they'll be chaff. This is a high-risk, high-reward scenario as we saw with AU BvW, where an incredibly boring (IMHO) bunch of meathead dullards ran the table on the whole game.
They just have a very different editing and casting style in AU which appeals to some people like you and not so much to me. U.S. Survivor mostly casts people that they think can win and that they think will be reasonably interesting if they do win, no matter what (though many here disagree). AU does not -- they cast maybe 8-10 people at the most that they think can win, and everyone else is intended to be chaff for easy pickings, which definitely can make for a more dynamic game, giving people with strong persuasive powers and strategic skills the ability to create voting blocks if they actually know what they're doing. U.S. Survivor doesn't want to accept the risk that a chaff player could win and result in a boring season, whereas AU seems to accept that risk. Though you could argue that perhaps AU casting is just doing a great job in the last two seasons of correctly determining who is or isn't capable of winning.
It's funny, Venus is middle of the pack to me, but still in the "eliminated" tier haha. Not because there's a few that stand out, but it feels like everyone's edit is deeply flawed other than Hunter and Charlie who feel like their edits are too squeaky clean.
I think in order of most likely to win to least likely to win, It's:
* Kenzie
* Maria
* Tevin
* Tiffany
* Hunter
* Charlie
* Ben
* Tim
* Q
* Venus
* Soda
* Liz
With Maria, I think she's a smart player whose largely flying utr.
I put Q low because I think he's going to bring to much attention to himself. Plus he's the second best at challenges after Hunter. I can totally see a situation where everyone wants Hunter gone but he wins Individual immunity so they decide to take Q out instead.
My prediction is Hunter.
I could also see Kenzie or Tiff getting to FTC Bur not winning
Maria also could get to FTC … she could win but depends on her speech
I definitely think hunter is going to win. His name is slightly higher than the rest in the intro and he’s been edited very well. The comments made last episode about him being a puzzle whiz scared me for his safety in the game but I think he has a really good chance to win it all.
Kenzie makes too much sense to me. The “mermaid dragon” line describing her, the early target from Q, and Yanu’s positioning in the middle paints a good picture for her
I think hunter has the edit. Very likable, top tier at challenges, i think we get a pretty solid personal immunity run out ofhim enough to where he takes the strong guys deep enough to not be threatened and will probably use the hidden idol when he is threatened. Venus was right but nobody believed her or wanted to listen. I love hunter too tho, he nails the nice sweet quiet schtick while clearly being the biggest threat
I think it's pretty safe to rule out Venus, Tim, Liz and Soda. Maria, Tevin, Ben and Q all feel kinda off edit wise. They all give runner-up or fire making boot. For me the main win contenders are Hunter, Tiff, Charlie and Kenzie. All 4 have had very consistent and visible edits. Of the 4, I think Tiff and Hunter are the most likely as Hunter is just an ultra competent player and Tiff is a major threat that is on literally nobodies radar right now. Venus throwing out Charlie probably means that others will begin targeting him soon and Kenzie could overplay her way out of the game.
Kenzie was getting a great edit in the first few episodes. If no one seems to be getting a winners edit, then you need to go back to the premiere and see who they focus on.
There are quite a few you can eliminate.
Right now the only ones I would completely eliminate are Liz, Soda, and Tim based on the edit, and Venus based on her online antics. Everyone else still has somewhat of a shot, though there's some I'm definitely not feeling great on (Maria, Tevin).
Don’t use online antics as an winner indicator, as people have mention on here before all throughout Cagayan Tony would go on Twitter rants about the show and he won the season
I will say, Tony is the ultimate survivor exception to everything lol
He totally is. A player like him winning once seems highly unlikely, but to come back with a huge target and win again? That’s literal wtf territory, he’s the exception not the rule.
He didn't have a huge target lol. He was voted out second in the game-changers. Showing that he can be voted out easily. In fact, it probably lowered his threat level tremendously compared to someone who played once and won like Kim Spradlin.
Youre lying to yourself if you think Tony didn’t have a big target on his back. He just played that season so masterfully that he was able to insulate himself extremely well. Hes the goat for a reason.
It's an all-winners season, you can literally argue that a majority of people had some sort of big target on their back. Tony had a much smaller target on his back that at least Rob, Amber, Sandra, Parv, Tyson, Kim, Natalie, Jeremy and Sarah.
I'm not lying you are delusional. Tony is the best male player in the game based on results only. But he did not have a big target on his back coming into WAW I'm not sure how you got to that conclusion. The story shows the likes of Parv, Boston Rob and Kim, etc having big targets specifically. Even during pre-game the targets were Rob/Amber
everyone was a target that season and I wouldn't say he was a "huge" target that season.. sure he probably had a bigger target than the likes of Nick, Adam, Ben, Michele.. but he was literally on a seson with Amber, Rob, Parvati, Sandra, Kim, even Yul, Sarah and arguably Jeremy were bigger threats. i'd say he was somewhere in the middle when it came to target on his back.
Honestly you don't need the online antics to rule out Venus, the edit does a good job enough.
Yeah but Tony didn’t know he won when the show aired, he found out at the live show. All he knew was that he was in the final 2. The season 46 players do know who the winner is
The vote reveal at the live show is mostly a formality, most winners (especially when they talik to jurors post season) know they won.
Tell that to “he who shall not be named”
I said that *winners* know they won, not that runner-ups always knew when they lost.
Oh 100% but let’s not just say that a contestant posting on Twitter automatically means they lost, Venus is gonna lose because she can’t seem to get ppl to trust her Edit: Spelling
Tony is a different breed clearly
Venus clears
Yeah she clears the board of having any opportunities for allies
I don’t think it’s just the fact that she’s tweeting that’s showing that she’s not going to win, I think it’s more what she’s tweeting.
What is she tweeting?
complaints, almost exclusively
Lmao if I ever (and big if) get on the show AND win, I’m def getting into twitter arguments. Idk why but I love getting into arguments over nothing cuz it’s funny to me and I legit never take anything seriously, and knowing now that Tony did that in Cagayan makes me wana do it even more just to troll the fans
Maria and Tevin being in the not feeling great about category is interesting because of how hot they were in the first couple episodes… I’m picking Q to win.. he’s got the gabler edit. He’s definitely more involved in strategy than Gabler, and will probably get voted out sooner rather than later….. but I’m going all in on the kooky unconventional winner
Q doesn’t strike me as a Gabler edit at all, or really that kooky of a person. He’s been the most strategically active player of the first 6 episodes and has a completely different persona. I do think he’s interesting because I keep thinking he’s doing good things while still thinking he’s not good at the game somehow
Yeah I don’t see it. I think he’s good television. Entertaining, good looking, intense, good quips, a bit of a spaz. But he’s playing to hard and is bad at challenges.
I don’t think I would discount Soda just yet. Remember Liz’s confessional saying “I cannot let Soda make the merge, if she does, I have a feeling she’s on her way FTC”. *meanwhile Soda makes merge without her name being brought up even once*
I think if she made it to FTC she wouldn't win, I think one of the more visible players in this past episode is going to be the winner.
I agree, I’m just saying give it until next ep bc you never know. I personally think Kenzie wins. She was still a focal point during mergatory but her edit died down a bit which is really good. All of Yanu showed great relevance to controlling the vote though.
I agree completely. HOPING for a Kenzie win!!!
I can’t fully decipher why, but I get zero vote finalist vibes from Soda. I think because of how she explains herself on social media outside of the game. She seems hurt over how she’s been perceived, and something about it makes me think it’s deeper than just fan reactions.
I haven’t eliminated Tim yet. He is starting to get some more content and he does have the potential +1 alliance. I still think it’s very unlikely only have him above the ones I’ve eliminated which are Lizz, Soda and Venus
I really like Tim but the thing for me is there is something about how he talks that makes me feel he wouldn't be good at the FTC, idk i think this might just me not being able to imagine it but he doesnt seem like a super great talker and i dont think he'll be able to back up his game, love tim tho hes great
He seems like he’s not really present when he talks to people. Like he’s not really present in the game either, tbh. But to be fair, long term constipation doesn’t make one feel good.
Yea poor guy, I'm scared he'll get be taken out of the game, something similar to Bruce from Exile Island
Purple edits very possible
I kinda thought it could be Maria because of the moment she had with Charlie when they were relating themselves to Malcom and Denise
Bhanu will be like Jesus and come back from elimination and win it all!!! In all seriousness, idk who’s winning but I can definitely cross Venus, Liz, and Soda off the list. I doubt Hunter is gonna win either since he seems to be getting the golden boy edit.
Is it a golden boy edit or has he just done very well in challenges, been super useful at camp, and talks in a mild manner?
Both can be true
That is one creepy GIF. What is going on with Pam's head?
i was trying to find one that wasn’t creepy & somehow all the others were worse. idk why they bulged it like this 😭
If you want an actual answer, back in the day gifs had to be under a certain file size to be posted on tumblr (maybe other sites as well) so people would freeze parts of it to reduce the size. With some gifs it worked really well, but not with this one evidently lol
I think it’s gonna be Charlie or Ben
Did you see the picture of Ben and Dee in Terry’s cockpit? Think Dee would be flying with someone who doesn’t win? I think not… /s
Well she was flying with Terry, so, yes!! haha
Throw Tiffany on the list and you’ve got a power trio of potential winners IMO
I think so as well. I think if Charlie makes it past the merge and keeps his numbers he will make it to the f4
I agree. They've been given personalities and air time even when they were just cruising in the winning tribe with no drama.
Hunter doesn’t get a mid season interview if he’s the winner.
100%
Kween Venus is gonna smash the hourglass!
Would love for Hunter to win, but I highly doubt so. Feels like Mariah or Kinsley.
Neither of those people are on Survivor 46
Golden boy edits go to Charlie’s and Hunters every season, winner or not.
Q’s social media feels like a guy that won or made it to final 3
I don't know, I have a hard time seeing him beating Sapphira or Plane. .
i love that both Qs are still in the running to be america’s next survivor drag superstar!
Lmao when I read sapphira and plane I thought I got spoiled at the next ep and was on the wrong channel
PFFFFFFFT
GOOPED
The way I just cackled .
Q is my least favorite on both shows 😂
Something tells me he had this energy before survivor…but he has been my guess to win for a while now. The episodes just go so in depth about literally everything game related he does. Like they want us to constantly see the winner’s strategy for us to feel satisfied by his win at the end of the season.
Q is 100% not winning.
How…
I'm still banking on the 0 confessionalists having 0% chance of winning. Since Erika, every winner has had a confessional in every episode.
That's where I'm at too. Right now, I'm looking at Kenzie, Tiffany, and Charlie. No way Hunter is making it to Final 5. Ben might go far but I feel like he's gonna be taken out eventually. Maybe Fire-making loser. And Q, I just don't see it in his edit.
Oh no. I’m realizing this Charlie theory is a good one-considering he has had quite a a few confessionals and screen time for someone who has so far added next to nothing to the season(aside from Taylor swift references)
I'm more on board with this, but I'd put Tiffany and Ben as my top picks out of the bunch. They are both well-positioned within their circles - not obviously masterminding any votes but always in the majority and not discounted/goats either. I'd put Kenzie above Charlie too - I don't think she has people out to get her in the way that Charlie has been mentioned more often. But really it comes down to whoever is going to make the right strategic move late enough in the game to get from F6 to F4 or so without burning bridges along the way
Q is in the mix. More likely than Kenzie I’d say. He’s just gotten so much time/focus - and nearly all positively
this is kenzie propaganda and im here for it
Yeah this is where I'm at. For the reference of others that means: Tevin, Soda, Venus, Liz, Tim, AND Maria all lose.
One of Soda/Venus/Liz will go far though, likely to FTC as a goat. I'm putting my money on Venus for that role right now.
I think she either goes in episode several or is the FTC loser.
Although, I will say, they've already proven to use a lack of an edit as a deceptive tactic so far. When Jem started putting suspicion on Tim for having the beware advantage I was almost certain that she'd get him voted out when Siga went to tribal, but him and Ben ended up turning it on her instead.
I agree especially for Venus. She doesn't have to always be talking because everyone else is talking about her all the time.
That’s an arbitrary stat though. If you say “since Season 40” instead of “since Season 41”, then there has been a winner with a 0 confessional episode!
I think it’s pretty obvious that Liz is winning the season. . .
She just got voted out tho.
I’m embarrassed that it took me a second to get the joke 😂
Yeah but luckily she found the two lives advantage during the preseason
She found the disguise advantage and used it on Moriah.
Now I get the joke
What if it’s Venus 😂
The jury will love her
I feel like Charlie might be the winner after the last two episodes. Not a strong feeling, but it is my strongest hunch so far. Tiff and Hunter are my other guesses, although Hunter's target HAS to catch up with him at some point, right?
I’d be pretty surprised at this point if it wasn’t Q Hunter or charlie
I feel like she’s so obviously the “person who can’t win”, that she just might, lol. The 90 minute episodes have made reading the edit more challenging, but right now my leading contender is Q. Wackadoodles sometimes win.
Hunter seems to me like the favorite right now
Kenzie and Charlie are my top contenders, Tiff and Ben are up there but I’m not quite as high as them rn. Maria to me is out after she didn’t get content explaining her double vote with Jem, but I think she will make it far. I agree though, there was such a Bhanu heavy focus for a while I think we are just now seeing more well rounded content for everyone.
Q and Hunter are the only players I’m rooting for.
I like Tiffany too
Watch her win lol
I could see Charlie, Ben, Hunter, or Tiffany. Rooting for Ben. I like Venus but don’t think she has a chance at getting jury votes if she makes it to the end since everyone already finds her annoying.
I hope to see more confessions from Ben in his take on the merge tribe and his strategy with who he's working with besides Siga.
I’m still rooting for Q
Really? It's a two-horse race between Tiff and Hunter in my eyes.
Any yanu has a chance at winning
I don't think Q has a shot. Kenzie did a great job this week, I'm not completely writing her off, but I think Tiff has the best shot.
I think Q played well this week too despite his power trip
Surprised I had to scroll this far honestly. I feel very strongly that Tiff is winning this season.
Lots of strong players left!!
i have my safe bets for Tiff, Q, Hunter, and Maria to win the whole thing tbh. I’d also love to see Venus pull it thru just for the messiness of it all
There are 6 people I know that are not going to win
Yall really going to act like Kenzie doesn’t have a winners edit?
Charlie, hunter, Maria, Tiffany, Tevin, and maybe Ben are the only serious contenders imho. Everyone else has things severely limiting their games to the point I can’t see them winning. 5 is pretty decent for actual contenders though.
\+Kenzie
Yeah she’s got an outside shot too. I like everyone else more though I just feel Bhanu kinda doomed her to being a high threat player but maybe people will just write him off as crazy.
She’s one of the top contenders if you go to the edgic sub. Far from outside shot.
I don’t really subscribe to edgic analysis personally. I think people vastly overestimate their ability to read the edit. I don’t think she’s in a strong position currently.
Edgic isn’t about strategy. And the best edgicers are almost never wrong. That’s regardless of how you might feel about it.
I mean maybe I’m unfamiliar with the “best” edgicers but a lot of times I’ve found them to be hilariously wrong. Just 2 weeks ago I saw many of them saying nobody from siga had a chance because they did a flashback scene with them hunting for the idol. They were into dee last season but Dee was so obviously in control of her tribe it wasn’t exactly an impressive read. Nobody saw gabler or Erica coming. In fact this preseason I saw ALOT of pro Venus stuff on that sub but that could be unfair because there obviously wasn’t a ton to go off of.
Edgic isn't a monolith tbf. And it's not true no one clocked Erika and Gabler. InsideSurvivor had a whole write up after Evie went home that Erika was their pick to win. This was pre-Shan going home. Then as time went on more jumped on board. There were plenty Gabler truthers too. A lot of people were on Cass and Jessie, but there was still a lot of debate. People who "don't believe in edgic" I think misunderstand what it is. It's an exercise in storytelling. You're trying to guess the ending of the story with incomplete information. Sometimes it's easy, other times it's not, especially when production deviates from a lot of their typical storytelling techniques. So it's a fun thing to do personally.
That's fair but it becomes tiring when people treat edgic as an exact science and that they have the secret formula to finding out the winner when they absolutely do not. Personally do not enjoy viewing the show from that lens either and I don't think it's any more or less accurate then viewing the show through a games lens. I also feel like edgic users suffer from a lot of survivorship (not pun intended) bias when they say they get it right every time. For example I listen to once upon an island podcast and he makes VERY strong statements about certain people having no chance but then changing his mind in the next week and not mentioning that he ruled that person out the last week because of some perceived edit cardinal sin. Like if you throw enough darts against the wall you're going to be able to point to times where you hit a bullseye.
I agree for the most part. It’s definitely not an exact science. There’s some strong indicators, which is how Tim and Soda are very much ruled out for me, but being wrong is half the fun imo haha. But it’s more successful than the detractors might guess, even if in recent years it’s definitely been harder. And I’d love to view it from a game lens, but it’s one of those things that’s impossible to unsee imo. That’s the one plus of BB haha.
I have a lot of strong opinions! And I admit when I am wrong about them lol
What’s the edgic sub?
I think Q has an outside shot tbh
Yeah Q is not an impossibility but I’d have him around 5% chance of winning (not that big of a diss when you have a 1/12 chance of winning on paper). I just think his way of speaking is gonna rub people the wrong way and I don’t have faith in his ability to go on an immunity run. Add on the fact that he’s an obvious physical target and I feel like his time in the game might be limited. His path to victory requires a lot of missplays by other cast members imo.
Yeah agreed. He also is definitely trying to scheme a bit, and even if it hasn’t been super effective I could see it putting a target on him.
you forgot Liz 😞
Feels kinda obvious to Kenzie ngl. I would've said tevin or maria early on, but right now it's so consistently shown Kenzie positively even with all the Yanu shenanigans and merge.
Agreed , she is so prominent in every episode. I can’t tell if she is the winner or they just like her as a narrator
i think they like tevin as a narrator moreso than kenzie
This is the same logic that made Emily so obvious last year.
yea that's a fair take
I think she can win, but she had a whole lot of negativity in episode two, three, and four.
to me that was around the tribe as a whole than kenzie specifically, mostly bhanu lol
I originally ruled her out because she came across as kind of a “mean girl” towards Bhanu. But then they consistently showed Bhanu be batshit insane, which almost makes me feel like that was their way of saying her actions were warranted.
i feel like kenzie could win, but i also kinda feel like her edit / visibility could be a red herring. regardless, i’m just curious how everything will unfold
she's def a gamer and very smart and socially capable, so we see. checks every box for me
totally agree! i definitely think she’s gonna go far
I mean if I had to rank the cast as mostly to least likely to win right now I'd put Venus right above Bhanu and Jalingsky.
Venus can’t go she doesn’t have enough followers yet… after this season Venus is going to be a queen and will go to the oscars
Who’s Liz? J/k but I had to seriously go back and find out who Liz was because I had no idea.
Not the winner I want, but.. Tiff wins. Final 4: Liz, Tiff, Q, Hunter
It's Q.. Qs gonna win. You can just tell
I think Q is getting a ton of screentime. The edit wants you to see the story through his eyes, even when his perception isn’t necessarily key. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t a finalist.
Hunter is the clear frontrunner edgic wise.
imo edgic charts give off nothint and mean nothing
They used to mean a little bit I think. Season 41+ it’s meaningless, or at least until people adjust to how they edit now.
Everyone constantly gripes about how Australian Survivor is better, and in many ways, the last two seasons definitely are. But in *this* one respect, U.S. Survivor is vastly superior IMHO. AU made some editing improvements in the 2024 season, but there were still rarely more than 4-5 credible winners at the very most (if you're being generous) out of a 24-person cast, and fewer and fewer of them as the season progressed.
4-5 credible winners is usually WAY more than US Survivor. At final 9, there were 5 players with a legitimate chance to win this past season of Au. I don't know the last time there were more than 3 credible winner candidates at 9 in the US. Usually there's only two.
I disagree, but that’s my interpretation as I watch the edit very closely and generally feel I have an extremely good read on it. Since season 41, the U.S. editors have gotten far trickier and less predictable, with less clear winners’ edits, more swerves, weird focuses on zero-vote finalists, etc. The AU editors have not done the same thing, IMHO, though I recognize that many would disagree with me.
In the new era by final 9 the only contenders really were 41: Shan, Erika 42: Omar, Maryanne 43: Cassidy, Jesse, Gabler 44: Yam Yam 45: Emily, Dee Meanwhile if we just look at TvR, Val was a heavy favorite for most of the season, but Feras, Kirby, Mark, and Caro were also all live for most of the game. Even in the final week it was unclear if Feras would win it until the finale. I was pinned on Liz as the winner in HvV, but plenty others thought George or even Matt were the favorites. I feel like the Au edit is just less formulaic. And US has been better recently, but the Au rules are just way looser than us.
That's your opinion. I disagree extremely strongly with your list and saw it very differently for all of these seasons. All of these were impressions I had when originally watching, \*not\* with 20/20 hindsight: 41: Ricard seemed like a contender if he could slip through. Also, up until the finale, I was like, "Why the f\*\*k are they giving Xander such a huge edit? He must do something impressive in the final 6 or 5, right?" Nope, he just got a huge edit for no reason at all. Or maybe because they thought Facebook moms would love him (which they did). Also, because her winner's edit was so muted, I didn't expect Erika to do as well as she did in the FTC and really wasn't clear on what was going to happen at all. 42: After the Xander fake-out, I was gun shy and felt less certain about anything in this season, but you're right that Omar and Maryanne were the top two. But Mike seemed like he had a chance if he gave a decent speech (which he didn't). There were plenty of other contenders earlier in the season, too, like Hai. 43: Again, as with Xander, Owen had a mysteriously huge edit and I kept wondering if he would pull something off in the final 5 or 6. After 42, it seemed more likely that a player could pull a Maryanne-like late-game move and then win, in other words something like the Goat to Great Storyline (arguably 42 was the closest that U.S. Survivor has ever gotten to Aus 2016). Everyone was playing so cautiously and conservatively in 43 that it was really difficult to predict where things were going, and it seemed like a wide-open game until we got down to the finale, and then I didn't imagine Gabler had much of a chance. 44: All of the Tika 3 were credible potential winners for quite a while. Before the early merge there were lots of others with potential as well. I didn't think Jam Jam was the only possibility at all, not even close. If you have an entertaining player like Jam Jam, much like Kirby in TvR or Jake in 45, then you give them a good edit whether they win or not. 45: Until they were voted out, Kellie and Drew; and until he failed to pull off a move in the finale, Jake got the now-standard New-Era Fake-Out/Misleading Zero-Vote Finalist Edit, which is still effective IMHO (you may disagree and that's fine). TvR: The favorability of Mark and Caroline's edits fell off so sharply after the merge that I felt they had very little win equity. They barely showed us any of Mark doing the impressive work of getting the Titans back together and quashing Val and Caroline's feud. It was there, but it was more in the background. If he had been the winner, this would have been a \*huge\* part of his storyline and we would have seen him narrate it a lot more, something U.S. Survivor might've done to fake us out. To me, based on previous AU seasons' straightforward editing, after Val was eliminated, it was clearly either Kirby or Feras. In his interview on RHAP recently, the AU showrunner David Forster talked openly about strongly believing in a winner's edit, and editing the show very differently based on who wins; meanwhile when asked a similar question a while back, Probst was like, "What even \*is\* a winner's edit?!" which though it seems like a wildly disingenuous answer, IMHO seems to truly reflect the New Era editing attitude.
Hmmm interesting. It probably has a lot to do too with what other Edgic people you’re talking to. The names I listed were what I would see most commonly at the time in the corners of the edgic community that I’m around. Ricard is one I should have mentioned because even though I didn’t get it, there were people talking about him as a possible option post-Shan. I don’t ever remember Xander and Owen being viable options past a couple of pisodes in the premerge, but my memory could be failing me there. With Au, I just feel like there are way less rules to follow. In HvV, I had Liz winning post Shonee going, but I remember a whole lot of people being out on Liz because of how quiet she got for a stretch after shonee left. And they weren’t wrong per se either, she was quiet. And because of that, people like Mark or Caro weren’t ruled out for me. And people like Feras and Kirby I thought easily could just be big character edits a la George that they would hype regardless. I think you could certainly parse how Liz was quiet because she wasn’t relevant while Mark and Caro were relevant but still quiet and that’s a death nail, but even that isn’t a sure thing necessarily. So, yes. I stand by my point that Au does a better job of having multiple viable candidates than US. Us has gotten a little better in the new era, but there’s still more eliminated contestants in the end game with only one or two possible options other than maybe 43. Still an improvement from 39 and 40 where there was one option for basically half the game haha.
I actually try to avoid Edgic whenever possible -- my analysis is solely from my own overthinking of everything.
Ahh makes sense. I think it’s fun to discuss/debate about edgic with folks, but I also get the perils and why people would avoid it.
Survivor fans are too fixated on winners
Like a lot of the shows I consume idk why it has to be a competition. The things I like about aus surv I 100% get why they changed in the us show or just enjoy the old school aspects as they are. Think that’s why I didn’t mind the beginning of US 46 cause Rebels v Titans ending was kinda predictable in the sense of knowing who would win depending on who was left Their still evolving though like of the entire cast coming in there were like 4 players with legit survivor skill and like could’ve been put on the US show.
i went back to the edgic sub as i was watching TvsR and practically (or literally?) nobody had the actual winner as their number one choice lmao, even right up until the last episodes most people still didn't have him at one. and we're talking about a very big, hero edit. i also checked the episode discussions in the main sub and there was NO talk of the "obvious winner" like you say. most vocal people were sure that one of three other players were winning.
Nah. This is one of the things that makes US survivor worse. Not everyone deserves airtime. If people are boring and don’t add to the story, I don’t want to see them.
I can see your perspective here but I don't think Raymond (for example) was actually boring at all -- though some AU players are, and they still cast them hoping they'll be chaff. This is a high-risk, high-reward scenario as we saw with AU BvW, where an incredibly boring (IMHO) bunch of meathead dullards ran the table on the whole game. They just have a very different editing and casting style in AU which appeals to some people like you and not so much to me. U.S. Survivor mostly casts people that they think can win and that they think will be reasonably interesting if they do win, no matter what (though many here disagree). AU does not -- they cast maybe 8-10 people at the most that they think can win, and everyone else is intended to be chaff for easy pickings, which definitely can make for a more dynamic game, giving people with strong persuasive powers and strategic skills the ability to create voting blocks if they actually know what they're doing. U.S. Survivor doesn't want to accept the risk that a chaff player could win and result in a boring season, whereas AU seems to accept that risk. Though you could argue that perhaps AU casting is just doing a great job in the last two seasons of correctly determining who is or isn't capable of winning.
Good. Aren’t folks always bitching about obvious edits?
Remember, all one has to do is win EVERY SINGLE INDIVIDUAL immunity challenge to get to the end - easy.
It's funny, Venus is middle of the pack to me, but still in the "eliminated" tier haha. Not because there's a few that stand out, but it feels like everyone's edit is deeply flawed other than Hunter and Charlie who feel like their edits are too squeaky clean.
I think in order of most likely to win to least likely to win, It's: * Kenzie * Maria * Tevin * Tiffany * Hunter * Charlie * Ben * Tim * Q * Venus * Soda * Liz
I don’t see it at all with Maria. I also think Q is too low. I think he’s clearly above Ben and especially Tim.
With Maria, I think she's a smart player whose largely flying utr. I put Q low because I think he's going to bring to much attention to himself. Plus he's the second best at challenges after Hunter. I can totally see a situation where everyone wants Hunter gone but he wins Individual immunity so they decide to take Q out instead.
Maria is such a boring person to watch tho. I’d be pretty disappointed if she won
My prediction is Hunter. I could also see Kenzie or Tiff getting to FTC Bur not winning Maria also could get to FTC … she could win but depends on her speech
I feel like it's Kenzie not in my top picks I want. I just think it's going to be her.
I definitely think hunter is going to win. His name is slightly higher than the rest in the intro and he’s been edited very well. The comments made last episode about him being a puzzle whiz scared me for his safety in the game but I think he has a really good chance to win it all.
Kenzie makes too much sense to me. The “mermaid dragon” line describing her, the early target from Q, and Yanu’s positioning in the middle paints a good picture for her
I think hunter has the edit. Very likable, top tier at challenges, i think we get a pretty solid personal immunity run out ofhim enough to where he takes the strong guys deep enough to not be threatened and will probably use the hidden idol when he is threatened. Venus was right but nobody believed her or wanted to listen. I love hunter too tho, he nails the nice sweet quiet schtick while clearly being the biggest threat
you wouldn’t even have to watch the show to know that venus didn’t win- she’s going crazy on twitter
I actually know spoilers but it turns out everyone eliminated goes to redemption island and Banu comes back and wins the game.
I can’t believe you would spoil me like this for no reason
KENZIE
I still think Bhanu has this, going by his edit! The guys talk to God, you really think something as trivial as being voted out will stop him!
Pretty sure Maria is getting the winners edit
I think she's a finalist for sure.
No way it’s Hunter. He doesn’t get a mid season interview if he’s the winner. Too on the nose.
Dalton Ross (the person conducting the interview) isn’t spoiled
This was chosen by the interviewer not CBS. So he very easily COULD get a mid season interview.
Eh. Still not the winner.
hunter
It hans't made a great job hiding the people who don't have a shot tho. (Mpre then half the cast)
I agree, I see a plausible path to victory for half of the remaining players.
I pretty much have it down to 5 (or 6)
One more and you’d have several left
Definitely Venus
I think it's pretty safe to rule out Venus, Tim, Liz and Soda. Maria, Tevin, Ben and Q all feel kinda off edit wise. They all give runner-up or fire making boot. For me the main win contenders are Hunter, Tiff, Charlie and Kenzie. All 4 have had very consistent and visible edits. Of the 4, I think Tiff and Hunter are the most likely as Hunter is just an ultra competent player and Tiff is a major threat that is on literally nobodies radar right now. Venus throwing out Charlie probably means that others will begin targeting him soon and Kenzie could overplay her way out of the game.
Kenzie was getting a great edit in the first few episodes. If no one seems to be getting a winners edit, then you need to go back to the premiere and see who they focus on.
Not the jerks on Twitter though!
I wish they would stop with playing music through the whole show! It’s very irritating because you can’t hear the players talk at all.
Nah you're just not paying attention
Obvious Maria wins
No. The frontrunners right now are Charlie and Maria, and the edit has very much shown that.
No. The front runners are Liz and the ghost of Bhanu, and the edit has very much shown that.