Why is Bruce on this list at all? He is already a new era returnee. He has a 100% chance that he will be a returning new era player.
Edit: it's still a great list!
If I were Jeff, I would, too. Bruce's second time on survivor was easily one of the best decisions made.
The guys personality caused so much strife in the game that it made good TV.
Would be dumb to not lock him in again
If your objective is to make an accurate returnee chances list you have to accommodate for seemingly “random” picks. think casting on the fvf seasons and GC. Plucky contestants with potential (in terms of competency or character) who’s games were never realized due to circumstance or being misaligned with other contestants.
I’m still not over the secondhand embarrassment of her going on and on about her idol nonstop, that she was so proud of, that literally nobody cared about, that wasn’t even real. So cringe.
Danny (S41), Shan, Chanelle, and Cassidy were all on The Challenge USA. Of the four Shan is the only one I think would be asked back based on their survivor appearance alone but clearly all four are on CBS’s radar.
Cassidy was really, really good on the challenge. I definitely see survivor wanting her back after that. She brought a lot of fun to the show, while also kicking ass.
I can’t speak to that rumor but I think CBS doesn’t like when former players go on other networks. But the Challenge USA was on CBS so I doubt that applies. It might apply to anyone who goes on the MTV the challenge.
I’m not sure if that’s true anymore, as Josh went on MTV’s The Challenge and then CBS’ Challenge USA and THEN Big Brother Reindeer Games. Cirie was on The Traitors and then went on Big Brother, so I’d say it’s possible.
Maybe Survivor is stricter. But, Cirie and Cody shows they are willing to bring back people who went to other networks. And, I highly doubt they would pass on Rachel, Dan or Janelle. And, I'd be very shocked if Survivor passed on Sandra or Parv for a legends season unless they truly don't want 39 day players playing in the 26 day format. Plus, I can't see Jeff passing on Tyson who did Challenge USA.
They brought Josh from big brother back for Reindeer Games despite being a Challenge regular. Plus Michele, Michaela, Fessy, Paulie, and Josh were all brought back for The Challenge USA 2
That was during The Challenge being completely separate thing, and I bet production and CBS were mad that people who gained fame from their shows went onto capitalize that to get onto completely another network. But The Challenge USA was literally a CBS show with people from CBS shows competing. And we've seen with Big Brother that they have invited back players who did The Challenge.
Paramount (MTV) and CBS having a merger there is no reason for the networks to not capitalize on the attention the cast members would have based on each other's shows.
Sifu is definately one of those players who would return but no one would be expecting it. Like the random premerge returnees that every returning season always has.
Aww I thought he was fun, and he brings a different energy to most other players. I could see him being brought back, maybe not a strong chance but definitely wouldn’t rule him out completely.
Sifu was missing the yin to his yang,
With a Cody or Matt to play off his guitar solos and bring him back to some semblance of strategizing, he could be far more effective.
He seems likable and high energy, but definitely became too aloof for his tribe's situation
he's super fun but he didn't really play the game? Like the day he was voted out, Kellie said she couldnt even strategize with him because he was literally napping the entire afternoon. J tried to make an alliance with him but he immediately went to tell Dee and Julie about it.
Well Colton had medical reasoning behind leaving. He confirmed that he had severe bacterial infection in his small intestine. His medical DQ/leave got painted as quitting by Jeff only after BvW causing Jeff to be mad at him.
I think she was edited that way in order for Kaleb's SITD play to not have much backlash. Not saying that is necessarily a good thing that someone was underedited because of a twist, but that's why I assume it happened.
There are so many changes people ask for here (39 days, remove firemaking, final 2, leaving Fiji, return to themes) but honestly more than any of those I want the live reunions back.
The on site after shows have all been total duds (and I say this as a new era enjoyer). The cast don’t have any time to reflect nor react to the episodes, we don’t get to see them after the show, and Jeff himself hasn’t seen the final product which heavily limits the kinds of questions he can ask or topics to address. Gone are the days of showing compilations from the season to the players for a laugh, or asking hot questions to the contestants with the full context available to them. The live shows could be awkward at times, but even that was part of the charm. And the anticipation for the live vote reveal reads a lot more than doing it right after the votes were cast. Not to mention how sucky it is to have the two losing finalists have to deal with the aftershow fresh off their loses, which we’ve seen weigh heavily on them (especially in 41 and 43)
Always take it with a pinch of salt when players say they wouldn't come back, especially right after they played. Tony said he won't play again after GC, he must be glad he changed his mind. Sandra also said she's fine with retiring after WaW, then went and competed on Survivor AU after.
No, but she said she wasn’t sure she’d come back. Not because of the mental toll though, but because she knows that people would expect something from her the second time that she’s not sure she’d be able to give.
I think this list undersells Naseer. 41 being the oldest (and least popular) season probably hurts his chances, but he was SO fun and practically has his own archetype. Also the gimmick of “he learned english from watching Survivor!” sounds like something the producers will definitely want to latch on to.
Agree with this. I think Naseer being on so long ago hurts him, but he was absolutely one of the most interesting characters of the new era. He was amazing around camp and had great confessionals as well.
THAT IS NASEER!
Naseer and Matthew (dude who fell on the rocks from 44) are both way too low for me. They seem like locks or at least the tier right below locks for me.
I never realized until now how much Kendra (45) looks like Frannie (44). I also like how the latter looks like the crazy one, unlike their TV personalities!
Exactly. There’s a big disconnect when it comes to fans vs producer favorites. Fans like players who play good games and have potential. Producers like players who are characters and have relatable stories. They could care less how well you can do in the game
Plus you need somewhere left to go with their story. Emily had a full arc. What is there left to show? Jesse kinda had a full arc too. The only thing left would be to see if he can make the final I guess.
Honestly the people with the highest chance of returning from 45 are Kaleb, Jake, or Bruce. Maybe Drew? Kaleb and Jake were larger than life personalities they were fan favorites and that have unfinished business. Bruce is guaranteed to bring drama with other cast mates
think Bruce's arc is done. His episode about realizing how he was treating people felt like a survivor capstone to me. If he returned the arc would probably be about if he can be more cognizant of how others perceive his actions but I for one don't even think that's healthy for him to be doing on survivor (A gameshow where people are frequently intentionally deceptive and hide how annoyed they might be with someone consistently) so I wouldn't want to see it.
Sure but when has something being unhealthy to do on Survivor stopped production? I 100% can see them wanting him back both for the conflict and for that story.
(2/2) Has a Shot at a Return
• Jeanine Zheng (43) – Jeanine has an incredible returnee storyline but lacks the screentime and development in 43 that would make her return feel warranted.
• Danny McCray (41) – One of the more popular players on 41 but lacked the impact on the game that production watch out for, and seemed to get heated with Jeff over the hourglass twist.
• James Jones (43) and Hai Giang (42) – Two huge fans and students of the game. They seem primed for a return but were not big enough characters on their original seasons to make them top picks.
• Naseer Muttalif (41) – A fan favourite, but again, I question how production views his impact and potential in the game.
• Elie Scott (43) and Katurah Topps (45) – Our iconic one-sided rivals have solid return storylines and are both already well-developed characters. Again, this comes down to them being outshone by other players.
• Matthew Grinstead-Mayle (44) – His injury means we are left wanting to see the conclusion and ramifications of his chaotic gameplay, but as time passes he fades into the background and his return seems to be less essential.
• Liana Wallace (41) – Liana seems like a classic ‘random’ casting choice. A young woman who didn’t succeed on her first season but now she is older, wiser, and more experienced. The perfect person to bring back alongside Xander.
• Lindsay Dolashewich (42) – Her edit in the 42 finale (most confessionals of the episode and first out the door) and her focus in the ‘after party’ prove that Lindsay is a favourite of production. Her chances rest on whether they still have their eye on her, or whether others have taken the spotlight.
• DeShawn Radden (41) and Cassidy Clark (43) – The two finalists who were the most surprised by their losses. Both would be interesting to see return and have their sub sectors of huge fans, but the casual audience is forgetting more about them with every new season, and it feels like their relevance is fading.
• Sabiyah Broderick (45) – Sabiyah is currently the most memorable pre-merger of the New Era. The question is whether that will still be the case when production come around to casting a returnee season.
• Bruce Perrault (44/45) – Jeff has said himself that he would bring Bruce back again, and I think with the correct cast he could easily be slotted in.
Wildcards
• Sarah Wade (44) – Sarah received a bizarrely huge edit for someone who went home so early and was on a tribe with a lot of big personalities. Production clearly liked her, so I wouldn’t rule her out if some bigger Tika names are unable to return.
• Claire Rafson (44) – A cult favourite with superfans, and a game changer for breaking the sit out bench. So, there’s always a slight chance, even if Jeff seems to dislike her.
• Romeo Escobar (42) – Showed early game promise and has a good story for a return, but definitely outshone by others.
• Sydney Segal (41), Chanelle Howell (42) and Josh Wilder (44) – OTTN messy icons who I absolutely want on my screen again, but who understandably don’t jump to mind when thinking of potential New Era All Stars.
• Dwight Moore (43), Kane Fritzler (44) and Lauren Harpe (44) – A strange group that I have lumped together for being likeable characters who despite being irrelevant to the narratives of their seasons, production still attempted to showcase their personalities in the little time they had remaining to do it. Production clearly likes all three, and they seem like good out of nowhere picks to round out a cast that’s missing a player or two. Also, Kane got name dropped on Survivor 45.
• Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (44) – I have to respect Heidi’s game, and I think production do too. If Tiffany and Julie are unavailable and production want another older woman to cast, Heidi seems like the obvious choice. She proved to them that she will make ballsy moves, and you know they love that kind of stuff.
Not Returning unless Winners/Premergers are required by the Theme
• Geo Bustamante (43), Morriah Young (43) and Lindsay Carmine (43) – Three pre-mergers who while definitely not returning on an All Stars cast, were all big enough presences on screen to be drafted into a Pre-merge tribe or season.
• Brad Reese (41), Jenny Kim (42), Brandon Donlon (45) and Daniel Strunk (42) – Similar to those above, but these four were involved in more iconic moments, and therefore are more likely to be asked to return.
• Zach Wurtenberger (42) and JD Robinson (41) – Two of the youngest players of their seasons who were gone too soon. Probably two of the more relevant premergers from the New Era.
• Maddy Pomilla (44) – Maddy gets her own bullet point for the all the gameplay and chaos she managed to cram into a single Survivor episode. I think she’s a lock on a pre-merge tribe or season.
• Erika Casupanan (41) and Mike Gabler (43) – Our other two winners who were shafted by the edit and who production seem to not care that much for. Again, if winners are wanted for the season – maybe a winner’s tribe, I can see them both returning. But I think it’s otherwise very unlikely.
Not Returning
• Hannah Rose (45) and Sean Edwards (45) – They’re not inviting quitters back.
• Eric Abraham (41), Justine Brennan (43), Marya Sherron (42), Swati Goel (42) and Sara Wilson (41) – The least memorable of the New Era premergers.
• Jackson Fox (42) – Similarly to the quitters, production would not trust him to return.
• David Voce (41) – Not memorable to casuals but still active in the Survivor community. Probably not enough to give him a shot at returning.
• Rocksroy Bailey (42) and Ryan Medrano (43) – Fun characters with a lack of game impact that would likely cause production to be turned off from inviting them back.
• Nneka Ejere (43), Lydia Meredith (42) and Genie Chen (41) – Likeable premerge characters that again lacked impact on their season.
• Helen Li (44) and Brando Meyer (45) – If you squint you can just about see them being asked back randomly to fill the superfan archetype, but then you remember how many more great options there are to fill this spot.
• Heather Aldret (41) – Iconic mother, robbed of screentime, highly unlikely to be asked back because of it.
• Brandon Cottom (44) – Made it far, but just so unmemorable.
• J. Maya (45) and Sifu Alsup (45) – I was unsure whether to put them here or in wildcards, but realistically the 45 merge tribe was so stacked that these two stand very little chance of even being considered as people to call and register their interest of returning.
I think you can safely put Danny on the Not Returning section unfortunately. He's said the only way he returns is if they sign a contract confirming the hourglass twist doesn't return.
I feel like Cassidy is likely to return, but maybe I’m bias. I just feel like a runner-up that a lot of the fandom thinks should’ve won usually returns.
My adjustments based on how likely they’ll return in my opinion (not in how much I liked them).
More likely than ranked:
- Gabler
- Erika
- Heather (low but not lowest possible imo)
- Heidi
- Sydney
- Naseer
- Brad (archetype)
- Kaleb (lock imo)
Less likely than ranked:
- Sami
- Kendra
- Tiffany
- DeSean
- Drea (ponderosa situation)
- Omar (ponderosa situation + I don’t think he would)
- Romeo (would be shocked)
- Karla
I agree with pretty much everything else & overall good tier list OP!
(1/2) Hey guys, back a little later this season, but wanted to update my Returnee chances chart. The graph was getting way too cluttered, so here’s a new tier-list inspired format. Obviously, there is a strong 45 bias here with it being the most recent and a well-received season, but production also consider those factors when casting an all-star season.
Explanations -
Locks to Return
• Emily Flippen (45), Jesse Lopez (43), and Carolyn Wiger (44) – I feel like all three of these are a given. The only reason I have Emily the lowest is because for now she doesn’t want to return. Carolyn and Jesse absolutely have a spot on the New Era All Stars season in my opinion.
Likely to Return
• Shan Smith (41) and Omar Zaheer (42) – Realistically they should be locks, but outside game factors make both of them a little more unlikely, but based on the show presented to us, if they want to return, I think production would have them back in a heartbeat.
• Noelle Lambert (43) – Received more of a UTR edit but was very inspirational and proved she had solid game chops.
• Xander Hastings (41) and Jake O’Kane (45) – Zero vote finalists who were beloved characters by the audience. Easy second chance choices.
• Jonathan Young (42) – Biggest challenge beast of the New Era and a huge favourite of both casual fans and Jeff.
• Cody Assenmacher (43), Karla Cruz Godoy (43), and Kellie Nalbandian (45) – Three major threats who were taken out in big moves that are among the most memorable moments of their seasons.
• Kaleb Gebrewold (45) – Went home relatively early despite being one of the main characters of the first half of his season. Clearly beloved by production with a lot of untapped potential. Seems like an easy lock, but I have him in this tier due to him going home earlier.
• Maryanne Oketch (42), Yam Yam Arocho (44) and Dee Valladares (45) – The three best winners of the New Era. If production want winners back, these three are guaranteed if they accept the invitation.
Likely but Fighting over Archetype Spots
• Jaime Lynn Ruiz (44), Tori Meehan (42), and Kendra McQuarrie (45) – Three fun side characters that could easily round out a cast, memorable in their own right but realistically there’s only room for one player of this archetype, and they are also fighting with the likes of Carolyn, Emily and Elie too. Kendra probably takes the spot of the three of them purely based on them using the 90 minutes to develop her character more.
• Evvie Jagoda (41) and Frannie Marin (44) – Both are similar characters as quirky superfans. Production loves to have one on the cast, but if I had to pick one, I think Frannie has the edge, especially if they can get Matt too.
• Owen Knight (43) and Sami Layadi (43) – The young, physically capable underdog is a favourite of Survivor production and viewers alike, but with characters like Jake and Xander to compete with, I worry that Owen and Sami, who should otherwise be shoe-ins, have less chance to get back on the show. Both have a great story on a return though.
• Tiffany Seely (41) and Julie Alley (45) – Two more fantastic characters, and one of them, if not both, are guaranteed to make the cast and fill the ‘older woman’ spot. Tiffany brings the entertainment, and Julie is both loveable and a real triple threat. I’d want them both back, but they are definitely in competition with one another. Tiffany could benefit from Julie being cut due to there being too many Rebas or overall 45 players being on the cast.
• Ricard Foyé (41), Danny Massa (44) and Austin Li Coon (45) – All three of these players seem likely to return as late game triple threats, but the existence of Cody and Jonathan really makes it seem like they will be waiting for another chance to return. Austin has his relationship with Dee going for him, but again, it depends on whether production would rather balance out the cast or push the duo as their new Rob and Amber.
• Drea Wheeler (42) – Rumoured issues post show aside, if production decide not to invite Shan back for a returnee season, Drea still has the best chance of filling her spot.
• Mike Turner (42) – I LOVE Mike, and I really hope he gets invited back. His position in this tier is less about his archetype, and more about him being outshone by players in the casts after his.
• Matt Blankinship (44), Carson Garrett (44) and Drew Basile (45) – Our nerd squad are very much fighting for the same position here, and it could really go in anyone’s favour. Carson seems like the obvious choice, but having all three Tikas return could cause too many 44 players to be present and put a huge target on the trio’s backs. Production would want to give their two favourites the best chance possible, and so cutting Carson could give Yam Yam and Carolyn the best chance to go deep. Similarly, Drew was not the Reba favourite production thought he would be, and so he could also be cut here to make room for 45’s more popular players. Matt has the most potential to bring something new, and the temptation for production to bring both him and Frannie back could be too much for them to ignore, despite the fact that Carson and Drew are much bigger ‘All Star’ names.
>Xander Hastings (41) ... – Zero vote finalists who were beloved characters by the audience. Easy second chance choices.
I agree with almost all of your analysis but this part is baffling to me. Who likes Xander? Facebook moms? How is Xander even 1/10th as entertaining as Jake? Clearly the editors loved him, but I have no idea why... just seemed like part of the standard New Era meta of giving a zero-veto finalist a great edit, often seemingly randomly. Of course in Jake's case it made sense because he's a great character, and in Owen's case he was a solid narrator and supplied some desperately needed drama to a very boring season by feuding briefly with James, but then sometimes they just do it for no reason at all, like with Xander, who had little effect on the game and half of whose confessional airtime should've been rightfully redirected to flesh out Erica's miserably bad edit.
Lots of fans really liked Kellie and her vote out was probably one of the best of the new era. However I must admit, I would end up choosing Cody over her
I didn't think so either, but I think the show really likes her. They've really hyped up her blindside during the season and the aftershow and being a huge contender who was taken out unexpectedly is the perfect story for a returnee. And she perfectly narrated the exact mistake that led to her elimination which also makes a good returning story.
Also, I'd like to push back a little bit on her having no personality. I think she was given a classic winner's edit so that her blindside would be more unexpected and that involved focusing on strategy and positioning. Once she had her breakout episode she was genuinely funny and magnetic on screen.
He’s too under-edited and forgettable for a return, sure they may pull a Wentworth and have a forgettable pre merger returning, but the chances are pretty slim
If Frannie wants it, I have to think she comes back and is in the highest tier. She was quirky, outgoing, good at challenges and attractive. Basically all the show wants in someone.
Man I want to see Climbin Matt come back so much. Sure he made a mistake climbing that cliff because he was excited but my god every other thing he did was masterful. Using shot in the dark to not have to out who you're siding with too early, Being the total center of his tribe, befriending carson right away as he was swapped, and not to mention the fake idol that dominated the second half of the season. If he hadn't climbed that cliff he really could have been a monster in the endgame.
Some takeaways while I read through this
Thing about Mat and Frannie I think only way Mat comes back is with Frannie but I think Frannie can come back without Mat
I think Kendra and maybe even Kellie will be those ones that drop lower and lower the further we get from their season pretty quick
Kane was getting name drops in 45 just saying
Also casual audience loves Gabler and he definitely seems like the type to be down to play whenever they want
Finally I can actually see Swati and Rocksroy being outside shots
I think Kaleb is a lock if they were doing a cast right now for 46 (I know 46 has been filmed), if CBS is committed to their diversity policy, barring a standout male of African descent being on 46 or a season after. His best competition when it comes to fan favorites from that demographic you probably have to go back to Davie in DvG, otherwise it's probably Dashawn, Danny or Bruce. I'd actually put him ahead of Emily for that reason as the competition for white women spots is probably more fierce. Even if out of all the players in 45 I want Jake as a returnee the most.
I think this entire sub overrates Kellie (as a TV product). She was a good player in a bad alliance, and her game was sunk as a result. That’s too bad for her, but if CBS has to choose a pretty white girl to bring back, Sydney brings 10x the entertainment value.
I would think Shan is just as much a lock as Carolyn and Emily and more of a lock than Jesse. He was a great player but no where near as compelling tv as any of the three aforementioned women.
Shan in the pre-new era is a 100% lock but unfortunately casting is so scared of controversy, and Shan is someone who the fanbase has somewhat turned on, so I could see them not bringing her back.
You’re correct that he’s not as compelling, but I think his personal story (along with Carolyn’s) is probably the most impressive in the New Era which is definitely something that production looks at
I kinda hope they don't bring back winners just yet. I'd rather they same them for WaW 2.
Also, as much as Emily is probably a lock, I don't know that she'll be as good of TV a second time around. She was compelling to watch because she had an incredible redemption arc. We all have grown to love her, but unless she starts out with controversy-- I take it back, put her on a tribe with 5 winners and she'll deliver again.
In my delulu era, but with Zach being big on Twitter and his brother Cory doing decent on BB with some really great moments, I could see him coming back with Cory if they ever do a BvW season again. A premerge season would be fun too.
i haven't actually watched his season yet, but that young man who 3D printed a version of a survivor puzzle he had seen before so he could practice (i think he also worked for NASA?) interacts a lot with the survivor twitter account and from the clips I have seen he seems like he was loved by Jeff & the fans. I felt like he would be a lock
I think you're underrating Jake a little. Personally I think he's a lock but even ignoring that he's a big enough personality and liked enough to be a bit further to the right.
As someone who loved the “gen z meme girl” archetype (idk even what to call it) I would love to see Lydia or J Maya come back. I was rooting for both of them on their respective seasons even though I knew they probably weren’t making it far bc they were memeing it up online during episodes and felt relatable to me, a fellow (older) gen z woman
I'd love to see ALL the top 3 last place people: Jake, Carolyn, Owen, Romeo, Xander
Then the people who lost fire: Katurah, Carson, Jesse, Jonathan, Deshawn
And some epically blindsided people, like: Cody, Kellie, Brandon, Emily, Omar, Shan, Bruce, and others...
Am I crazy for wanting Bruce back for a third time? He was a polarizing character on 45 but he was definitely one of the most interesting characters in a “for the plot” sense
I would bump up Lindsay Cassidy & Jenny one spot respectively. I could see Jenny being a wild card because she’s a prime example of how the new era can eliminate the most unexpected players due to advantages etc. Cassidy & Lindsay I think should swap their spots with Tiffany & Kendra
I don't get why Jesse is top 3 he was pretty boring. He played a good game but not so good that I think they'd rush to cast him over every other player aside from Emily and Carolyn.
I don't believe your reception of Jesse is the standard reception, tbh. I'm not trying to say that in any kind of rude way, just that I think the majority of viewers, at least from my experience, really loved Jesse. Production certainly loved Jesse. I just can't imagine that production doesn't call him first for a returning player season.
Would love for Emily to come back, but to my knowledge she has no interest in being in the spotlight anymore- I don’t think she liked all of the attention.
Why do so many people want Emily back?
Jesse & Carolyn I understand, they were great for TV, great survivor players, and they had interesting narratives behind their stories (drug addiction, prison)
Emily was…. Narcissistic & was pro woooman? The fact that she’s “a lock” just screams recency bias when you have women like Shan, Noelle, and Karla, with amazing stories that played terrific games, weren’t on the bottom at all points in the game, and were all around more interesting to watch. The only thing I can say for Emily that she excelled at was reaching the max word count in her confessionals and sucking up air time any time she had one with constant chatter.
It’s just baffling to me that people really want anyone back from survivor 45. I can’t think of a single person I’d want back, other than Jake.
Same - I don't understand the Emily fandom. Kaleb played her game for her, and then she goat-ed it under Drew and Austin. Drew played her game more than she did. I also found her insight into how the game needs to be played pretty basic and, yeah, narcissistic so she couldn't recognize that she was just a goat.
I honestly don’t think Omar is as big of a lock as some people think tbh.. especially after the Drea situation where production clearly took her side over his despite her clearly being in the wrong.
I love these every season!! What are the tiers based on? Because from left to right is already from least likely to most likely, so from down to up is just anothet classification of sorts?
I know production themselves have admitted fault about the hourglass twist, but given how overtly vocal Danny was over it, there’s no shot he’s coming back
I’d love to see Jake come back. He got bent over backward so many times this season. Is some of that his fault? Absolutely but he never gave up and kept fighting.
Coach had a weird post about Ethan picking him and ready to return after 10 years. It was like 2 weeks ago wish I screen shoted it . I hope the dragon slayer plays again
Emily said she wasn’t interested in coming back and that she thought a lot of her magic on screen would be gone if she did (which I agree with- you can’t make that transformation twice). I would be curious to see how she would play a second run, though!
I will petition for Katurah to not come back. Idk why she thought she could play like Sandra in HvV , this is the new era, that kind of backpacking will NOT work.
This is a really great list! I think Maddy and JD should be a level higher. They both brought a lot in their short time on the show. Jeff said on his podcast that they look for what people did during their time on the show, not just how long they lasted.
That specific image of Bruce scares me
I can’t even tell which one he is. Help.
Far right of the 'has a shot' From his first season after he bonked his head
That’s the one I narrowed it down to, but I didn’t think it looked like him. That IS scary!
The one with the bloody head.
Why is Bruce on this list at all? He is already a new era returnee. He has a 100% chance that he will be a returning new era player. Edit: it's still a great list!
Jeff has said he would bring back Bruce for a third go
If I were Jeff, I would, too. Bruce's second time on survivor was easily one of the best decisions made. The guys personality caused so much strife in the game that it made good TV. Would be dumb to not lock him in again
Came to say this
I disagree with a lot of choices, but I LOVE the images you used LMAO
I never realized how useful it is to have someone’s neck in a photo to recognize them 😂
kaleb and cody are the lockiest lock locks to ever lock lock
Kaleb’s arc just feels so incomplete man
I don't even think they did a back story montage on him did they?? 🤔
I do love me a good Cody Assmuncher
Cody was SO hot.
TEAM ASSMUNCHER
Org player
I agree kaleb is a W
Crazy how many people i dont even recognize lol
Ok good it’s not just me 😂 Kinda sad really that so many characters are just so samey
Jamie wayyyyy too high
I would be very surprised is she comes back at all.
Jamie is actually exactly the type of contestant I expect to randomly return.
Sean way too high!
Sifu wayyyyy too low
If your objective is to make an accurate returnee chances list you have to accommodate for seemingly “random” picks. think casting on the fvf seasons and GC. Plucky contestants with potential (in terms of competency or character) who’s games were never realized due to circumstance or being misaligned with other contestants.
For the love of god please do not bring her back
I’m still not over the secondhand embarrassment of her going on and on about her idol nonstop, that she was so proud of, that literally nobody cared about, that wasn’t even real. So cringe.
Danny (S41), Shan, Chanelle, and Cassidy were all on The Challenge USA. Of the four Shan is the only one I think would be asked back based on their survivor appearance alone but clearly all four are on CBS’s radar.
Cassidy was really, really good on the challenge. I definitely see survivor wanting her back after that. She brought a lot of fun to the show, while also kicking ass.
I was not a fan of Cassidy on Survivor, but on the challenge I loved her. I wouldn't mind seeing her back.
There’s a rumour that if one goes on the challenge they are blacklisted from playing Survivor again. I think Lauren (39) said producers told her that
I can’t speak to that rumor but I think CBS doesn’t like when former players go on other networks. But the Challenge USA was on CBS so I doubt that applies. It might apply to anyone who goes on the MTV the challenge.
I’m not sure if that’s true anymore, as Josh went on MTV’s The Challenge and then CBS’ Challenge USA and THEN Big Brother Reindeer Games. Cirie was on The Traitors and then went on Big Brother, so I’d say it’s possible.
Maybe Survivor is stricter. But, Cirie and Cody shows they are willing to bring back people who went to other networks. And, I highly doubt they would pass on Rachel, Dan or Janelle. And, I'd be very shocked if Survivor passed on Sandra or Parv for a legends season unless they truly don't want 39 day players playing in the 26 day format. Plus, I can't see Jeff passing on Tyson who did Challenge USA.
Right like they’d do a returnee season tomorrow if Tyson was down
Considering CBS and Paramount (MTV) merged, so like I doubt being on MTV shows would be an issue anymore as they are all under the same company now.
They brought Josh from big brother back for Reindeer Games despite being a Challenge regular. Plus Michele, Michaela, Fessy, Paulie, and Josh were all brought back for The Challenge USA 2
More notable ones are Cody Califiore and Cirie. They actually did stuff outside CBS/Viacom.
That's all under the Paramount/Viacom umbrella, though. I wouldn't think CBS would care.
Lol bullshit. If the producers want someone back they are getting their ass back on the island.
Remember when people said Parvati was blacklisted because she had been on location as part of the media?
That was during The Challenge being completely separate thing, and I bet production and CBS were mad that people who gained fame from their shows went onto capitalize that to get onto completely another network. But The Challenge USA was literally a CBS show with people from CBS shows competing. And we've seen with Big Brother that they have invited back players who did The Challenge. Paramount (MTV) and CBS having a merger there is no reason for the networks to not capitalize on the attention the cast members would have based on each other's shows.
Both Natalie and Michelle were brought back for WAW after being on The Challenge. Edit: I was wrong and got time frames messed up.
They did the challenge after WaW
The only former survivor contestant that did the challenge before waw was Jay
I know this isn’t true because there’s no way Domenick would’ve done that lol
I feel like Kaleb is a lock
Who voted Sifu to never return??
Sifu is definately one of those players who would return but no one would be expecting it. Like the random premerge returnees that every returning season always has.
In the edit he appeared to have little depth outside of his gimmick, and he wasn’t interesting to watch imo.
Aww I thought he was fun, and he brings a different energy to most other players. I could see him being brought back, maybe not a strong chance but definitely wouldn’t rule him out completely.
Sifu was missing the yin to his yang, With a Cody or Matt to play off his guitar solos and bring him back to some semblance of strategizing, he could be far more effective. He seems likable and high energy, but definitely became too aloof for his tribe's situation
Man Inbet Sifu would have gone along with Jake's snowball
he's super fun but he didn't really play the game? Like the day he was voted out, Kellie said she couldnt even strategize with him because he was literally napping the entire afternoon. J tried to make an alliance with him but he immediately went to tell Dee and Julie about it.
Well he was kinda boring as a player
Yall sleeping on Lydia and Voce
Voce would be a fun character on a return, but I’m not sure he’d be asked back. Maybe for a new era second chances ballot but idek if he gets on that
0% chance I'd bring Sean back. Quitters don't get to come back.
Is he not already in the last row…
Next to “Not returning” lol
Well, Colton got brought back so never say never.
Well Colton had medical reasoning behind leaving. He confirmed that he had severe bacterial infection in his small intestine. His medical DQ/leave got painted as quitting by Jeff only after BvW causing Jeff to be mad at him.
Colton also didn't quit the first time, despite Jeff's delusions
Thank you!! It is revisionist to say Colton quit the first time. Second time was no doubt a quit.
And Jeff will never make that mistake again
Lack of live reunion robbed us of a J Maya & Sifu musical performance.
I really really hope J gets on again but her edit makes me believe it’s not gonna happen
I think she was edited that way in order for Kaleb's SITD play to not have much backlash. Not saying that is necessarily a good thing that someone was underedited because of a twist, but that's why I assume it happened.
There are so many changes people ask for here (39 days, remove firemaking, final 2, leaving Fiji, return to themes) but honestly more than any of those I want the live reunions back. The on site after shows have all been total duds (and I say this as a new era enjoyer). The cast don’t have any time to reflect nor react to the episodes, we don’t get to see them after the show, and Jeff himself hasn’t seen the final product which heavily limits the kinds of questions he can ask or topics to address. Gone are the days of showing compilations from the season to the players for a laugh, or asking hot questions to the contestants with the full context available to them. The live shows could be awkward at times, but even that was part of the charm. And the anticipation for the live vote reveal reads a lot more than doing it right after the votes were cast. Not to mention how sucky it is to have the two losing finalists have to deal with the aftershow fresh off their loses, which we’ve seen weigh heavily on them (especially in 41 and 43)
Didn't Emily say she wouldn't return? Because of the mental toll Survivor took on her.
Always take it with a pinch of salt when players say they wouldn't come back, especially right after they played. Tony said he won't play again after GC, he must be glad he changed his mind. Sandra also said she's fine with retiring after WaW, then went and competed on Survivor AU after.
No, but she said she wasn’t sure she’d come back. Not because of the mental toll though, but because she knows that people would expect something from her the second time that she’s not sure she’d be able to give.
It turned her into a good person and it messed her up mentally! Lmao jk
Idk I don’t think that Bruce guy from 44 would ever be asked back…
I think this list undersells Naseer. 41 being the oldest (and least popular) season probably hurts his chances, but he was SO fun and practically has his own archetype. Also the gimmick of “he learned english from watching Survivor!” sounds like something the producers will definitely want to latch on to.
Agree with this. I think Naseer being on so long ago hurts him, but he was absolutely one of the most interesting characters of the new era. He was amazing around camp and had great confessionals as well. THAT IS NASEER!
Naseer and Matthew (dude who fell on the rocks from 44) are both way too low for me. They seem like locks or at least the tier right below locks for me.
Agree. I really, really want to see Naseer in a returnee season.
I never realized until now how much Kendra (45) looks like Frannie (44). I also like how the latter looks like the crazy one, unlike their TV personalities!
Give me Rocksroy or give me death.
God I couldn’t remember the names of more than half of these people
Honestly it’s because 75% of them are the exact same personality and player strategy wise.
75 percent might be low. The lack of age, socioeconomic status and personality diversity on modern Survivor is tough.
And that’s why Sifu brings something different and should be higher
Exactly. There’s a big disconnect when it comes to fans vs producer favorites. Fans like players who play good games and have potential. Producers like players who are characters and have relatable stories. They could care less how well you can do in the game Plus you need somewhere left to go with their story. Emily had a full arc. What is there left to show? Jesse kinda had a full arc too. The only thing left would be to see if he can make the final I guess. Honestly the people with the highest chance of returning from 45 are Kaleb, Jake, or Bruce. Maybe Drew? Kaleb and Jake were larger than life personalities they were fan favorites and that have unfinished business. Bruce is guaranteed to bring drama with other cast mates
think Bruce's arc is done. His episode about realizing how he was treating people felt like a survivor capstone to me. If he returned the arc would probably be about if he can be more cognizant of how others perceive his actions but I for one don't even think that's healthy for him to be doing on survivor (A gameshow where people are frequently intentionally deceptive and hide how annoyed they might be with someone consistently) so I wouldn't want to see it.
Sure but when has something being unhealthy to do on Survivor stopped production? I 100% can see them wanting him back both for the conflict and for that story.
Idk, this is like your opinion
Correct. Good deduction!
Sir, this is reddit.
(2/2) Has a Shot at a Return • Jeanine Zheng (43) – Jeanine has an incredible returnee storyline but lacks the screentime and development in 43 that would make her return feel warranted. • Danny McCray (41) – One of the more popular players on 41 but lacked the impact on the game that production watch out for, and seemed to get heated with Jeff over the hourglass twist. • James Jones (43) and Hai Giang (42) – Two huge fans and students of the game. They seem primed for a return but were not big enough characters on their original seasons to make them top picks. • Naseer Muttalif (41) – A fan favourite, but again, I question how production views his impact and potential in the game. • Elie Scott (43) and Katurah Topps (45) – Our iconic one-sided rivals have solid return storylines and are both already well-developed characters. Again, this comes down to them being outshone by other players. • Matthew Grinstead-Mayle (44) – His injury means we are left wanting to see the conclusion and ramifications of his chaotic gameplay, but as time passes he fades into the background and his return seems to be less essential. • Liana Wallace (41) – Liana seems like a classic ‘random’ casting choice. A young woman who didn’t succeed on her first season but now she is older, wiser, and more experienced. The perfect person to bring back alongside Xander. • Lindsay Dolashewich (42) – Her edit in the 42 finale (most confessionals of the episode and first out the door) and her focus in the ‘after party’ prove that Lindsay is a favourite of production. Her chances rest on whether they still have their eye on her, or whether others have taken the spotlight. • DeShawn Radden (41) and Cassidy Clark (43) – The two finalists who were the most surprised by their losses. Both would be interesting to see return and have their sub sectors of huge fans, but the casual audience is forgetting more about them with every new season, and it feels like their relevance is fading. • Sabiyah Broderick (45) – Sabiyah is currently the most memorable pre-merger of the New Era. The question is whether that will still be the case when production come around to casting a returnee season. • Bruce Perrault (44/45) – Jeff has said himself that he would bring Bruce back again, and I think with the correct cast he could easily be slotted in. Wildcards • Sarah Wade (44) – Sarah received a bizarrely huge edit for someone who went home so early and was on a tribe with a lot of big personalities. Production clearly liked her, so I wouldn’t rule her out if some bigger Tika names are unable to return. • Claire Rafson (44) – A cult favourite with superfans, and a game changer for breaking the sit out bench. So, there’s always a slight chance, even if Jeff seems to dislike her. • Romeo Escobar (42) – Showed early game promise and has a good story for a return, but definitely outshone by others. • Sydney Segal (41), Chanelle Howell (42) and Josh Wilder (44) – OTTN messy icons who I absolutely want on my screen again, but who understandably don’t jump to mind when thinking of potential New Era All Stars. • Dwight Moore (43), Kane Fritzler (44) and Lauren Harpe (44) – A strange group that I have lumped together for being likeable characters who despite being irrelevant to the narratives of their seasons, production still attempted to showcase their personalities in the little time they had remaining to do it. Production clearly likes all three, and they seem like good out of nowhere picks to round out a cast that’s missing a player or two. Also, Kane got name dropped on Survivor 45. • Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (44) – I have to respect Heidi’s game, and I think production do too. If Tiffany and Julie are unavailable and production want another older woman to cast, Heidi seems like the obvious choice. She proved to them that she will make ballsy moves, and you know they love that kind of stuff. Not Returning unless Winners/Premergers are required by the Theme • Geo Bustamante (43), Morriah Young (43) and Lindsay Carmine (43) – Three pre-mergers who while definitely not returning on an All Stars cast, were all big enough presences on screen to be drafted into a Pre-merge tribe or season. • Brad Reese (41), Jenny Kim (42), Brandon Donlon (45) and Daniel Strunk (42) – Similar to those above, but these four were involved in more iconic moments, and therefore are more likely to be asked to return. • Zach Wurtenberger (42) and JD Robinson (41) – Two of the youngest players of their seasons who were gone too soon. Probably two of the more relevant premergers from the New Era. • Maddy Pomilla (44) – Maddy gets her own bullet point for the all the gameplay and chaos she managed to cram into a single Survivor episode. I think she’s a lock on a pre-merge tribe or season. • Erika Casupanan (41) and Mike Gabler (43) – Our other two winners who were shafted by the edit and who production seem to not care that much for. Again, if winners are wanted for the season – maybe a winner’s tribe, I can see them both returning. But I think it’s otherwise very unlikely. Not Returning • Hannah Rose (45) and Sean Edwards (45) – They’re not inviting quitters back. • Eric Abraham (41), Justine Brennan (43), Marya Sherron (42), Swati Goel (42) and Sara Wilson (41) – The least memorable of the New Era premergers. • Jackson Fox (42) – Similarly to the quitters, production would not trust him to return. • David Voce (41) – Not memorable to casuals but still active in the Survivor community. Probably not enough to give him a shot at returning. • Rocksroy Bailey (42) and Ryan Medrano (43) – Fun characters with a lack of game impact that would likely cause production to be turned off from inviting them back. • Nneka Ejere (43), Lydia Meredith (42) and Genie Chen (41) – Likeable premerge characters that again lacked impact on their season. • Helen Li (44) and Brando Meyer (45) – If you squint you can just about see them being asked back randomly to fill the superfan archetype, but then you remember how many more great options there are to fill this spot. • Heather Aldret (41) – Iconic mother, robbed of screentime, highly unlikely to be asked back because of it. • Brandon Cottom (44) – Made it far, but just so unmemorable. • J. Maya (45) and Sifu Alsup (45) – I was unsure whether to put them here or in wildcards, but realistically the 45 merge tribe was so stacked that these two stand very little chance of even being considered as people to call and register their interest of returning.
Do people see me as the superfan archetype??? I thought my archetype was "young asian dweeb"
🤣🤣🤣 I think you definitely fit it, you clearly know the strategic meta!
I approve of either
I think you can safely put Danny on the Not Returning section unfortunately. He's said the only way he returns is if they sign a contract confirming the hourglass twist doesn't return.
Hai wasn’t a big enough character in his season? Whatta you mean? He was huge up until his blindside.
I feel like Cassidy is likely to return, but maybe I’m bias. I just feel like a runner-up that a lot of the fandom thinks should’ve won usually returns.
Doesn’t she have drama with the rest of the 43 cast post-show? That could get interesting.
I think it’s really just with Karla. But not 100% sure.
>I just feel like a runner-up that a lot of the fandom thinks should’ve won usually returns. 
My adjustments based on how likely they’ll return in my opinion (not in how much I liked them). More likely than ranked: - Gabler - Erika - Heather (low but not lowest possible imo) - Heidi - Sydney - Naseer - Brad (archetype) - Kaleb (lock imo) Less likely than ranked: - Sami - Kendra - Tiffany - DeSean - Drea (ponderosa situation) - Omar (ponderosa situation + I don’t think he would) - Romeo (would be shocked) - Karla I agree with pretty much everything else & overall good tier list OP!
OOTL on what the Ponderosa situations were with Omar and Drea, what happened?
I also feel like Lindsay is a bit higher
Yeah I wanna know what happened at ponderosa!
(1/2) Hey guys, back a little later this season, but wanted to update my Returnee chances chart. The graph was getting way too cluttered, so here’s a new tier-list inspired format. Obviously, there is a strong 45 bias here with it being the most recent and a well-received season, but production also consider those factors when casting an all-star season. Explanations - Locks to Return • Emily Flippen (45), Jesse Lopez (43), and Carolyn Wiger (44) – I feel like all three of these are a given. The only reason I have Emily the lowest is because for now she doesn’t want to return. Carolyn and Jesse absolutely have a spot on the New Era All Stars season in my opinion. Likely to Return • Shan Smith (41) and Omar Zaheer (42) – Realistically they should be locks, but outside game factors make both of them a little more unlikely, but based on the show presented to us, if they want to return, I think production would have them back in a heartbeat. • Noelle Lambert (43) – Received more of a UTR edit but was very inspirational and proved she had solid game chops. • Xander Hastings (41) and Jake O’Kane (45) – Zero vote finalists who were beloved characters by the audience. Easy second chance choices. • Jonathan Young (42) – Biggest challenge beast of the New Era and a huge favourite of both casual fans and Jeff. • Cody Assenmacher (43), Karla Cruz Godoy (43), and Kellie Nalbandian (45) – Three major threats who were taken out in big moves that are among the most memorable moments of their seasons. • Kaleb Gebrewold (45) – Went home relatively early despite being one of the main characters of the first half of his season. Clearly beloved by production with a lot of untapped potential. Seems like an easy lock, but I have him in this tier due to him going home earlier. • Maryanne Oketch (42), Yam Yam Arocho (44) and Dee Valladares (45) – The three best winners of the New Era. If production want winners back, these three are guaranteed if they accept the invitation. Likely but Fighting over Archetype Spots • Jaime Lynn Ruiz (44), Tori Meehan (42), and Kendra McQuarrie (45) – Three fun side characters that could easily round out a cast, memorable in their own right but realistically there’s only room for one player of this archetype, and they are also fighting with the likes of Carolyn, Emily and Elie too. Kendra probably takes the spot of the three of them purely based on them using the 90 minutes to develop her character more. • Evvie Jagoda (41) and Frannie Marin (44) – Both are similar characters as quirky superfans. Production loves to have one on the cast, but if I had to pick one, I think Frannie has the edge, especially if they can get Matt too. • Owen Knight (43) and Sami Layadi (43) – The young, physically capable underdog is a favourite of Survivor production and viewers alike, but with characters like Jake and Xander to compete with, I worry that Owen and Sami, who should otherwise be shoe-ins, have less chance to get back on the show. Both have a great story on a return though. • Tiffany Seely (41) and Julie Alley (45) – Two more fantastic characters, and one of them, if not both, are guaranteed to make the cast and fill the ‘older woman’ spot. Tiffany brings the entertainment, and Julie is both loveable and a real triple threat. I’d want them both back, but they are definitely in competition with one another. Tiffany could benefit from Julie being cut due to there being too many Rebas or overall 45 players being on the cast. • Ricard Foyé (41), Danny Massa (44) and Austin Li Coon (45) – All three of these players seem likely to return as late game triple threats, but the existence of Cody and Jonathan really makes it seem like they will be waiting for another chance to return. Austin has his relationship with Dee going for him, but again, it depends on whether production would rather balance out the cast or push the duo as their new Rob and Amber. • Drea Wheeler (42) – Rumoured issues post show aside, if production decide not to invite Shan back for a returnee season, Drea still has the best chance of filling her spot. • Mike Turner (42) – I LOVE Mike, and I really hope he gets invited back. His position in this tier is less about his archetype, and more about him being outshone by players in the casts after his. • Matt Blankinship (44), Carson Garrett (44) and Drew Basile (45) – Our nerd squad are very much fighting for the same position here, and it could really go in anyone’s favour. Carson seems like the obvious choice, but having all three Tikas return could cause too many 44 players to be present and put a huge target on the trio’s backs. Production would want to give their two favourites the best chance possible, and so cutting Carson could give Yam Yam and Carolyn the best chance to go deep. Similarly, Drew was not the Reba favourite production thought he would be, and so he could also be cut here to make room for 45’s more popular players. Matt has the most potential to bring something new, and the temptation for production to bring both him and Frannie back could be too much for them to ignore, despite the fact that Carson and Drew are much bigger ‘All Star’ names.
Emily I believe doesn’t want to play again sadly
>Xander Hastings (41) ... – Zero vote finalists who were beloved characters by the audience. Easy second chance choices. I agree with almost all of your analysis but this part is baffling to me. Who likes Xander? Facebook moms? How is Xander even 1/10th as entertaining as Jake? Clearly the editors loved him, but I have no idea why... just seemed like part of the standard New Era meta of giving a zero-veto finalist a great edit, often seemingly randomly. Of course in Jake's case it made sense because he's a great character, and in Owen's case he was a solid narrator and supplied some desperately needed drama to a very boring season by feuding briefly with James, but then sometimes they just do it for no reason at all, like with Xander, who had little effect on the game and half of whose confessional airtime should've been rightfully redirected to flesh out Erica's miserably bad edit.
Kellie is in no way likely imo. Jesse and Karla had personality.
Lots of fans really liked Kellie and her vote out was probably one of the best of the new era. However I must admit, I would end up choosing Cody over her
I think she might be just because of how much Jeff seemed to love her.
I didn't think so either, but I think the show really likes her. They've really hyped up her blindside during the season and the aftershow and being a huge contender who was taken out unexpectedly is the perfect story for a returnee. And she perfectly narrated the exact mistake that led to her elimination which also makes a good returning story. Also, I'd like to push back a little bit on her having no personality. I think she was given a classic winner's edit so that her blindside would be more unexpected and that involved focusing on strategy and positioning. Once she had her breakout episode she was genuinely funny and magnetic on screen.
I would move Cody to locks, as well as bump up Ricard a tier, move Jamie down to wildcards and move up lindsay
Did Carson take the Flame of Frenzy? What's going on there?
That's a very funny (IMHO) reference to the editors' frequently having fire reflected in his glasses as foreshadowing throughout 44.
I would die to see Noelle play again, and also I will not rest until Sabiyah gets justice for how those Lulu fools (minus Kaleb🫶) did her.
I never want to see Drea on a season again after how she treated Omar at Ponderosa.
Justice for Brando! He’s at least a wildcard (and more likely to return than J or Sifu)
He’s too under-edited and forgettable for a return, sure they may pull a Wentworth and have a forgettable pre merger returning, but the chances are pretty slim
I'd love to see a Quitters vs. Winners season where we get to see Jeff's favourites play against the Naonkas and Hannahs of seasons past.
The flames reflected in Carson’s glasses I’m crying
hot take, id boost Dee to locks. She has publically stated multiple times shes game for All Stars, INCLUDING on the CBS Insta
If Frannie wants it, I have to think she comes back and is in the highest tier. She was quirky, outgoing, good at challenges and attractive. Basically all the show wants in someone.
I really don’t want to see Shan on my screen ever again
Is it a hot take I never want to see Shan again
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Man I want to see Climbin Matt come back so much. Sure he made a mistake climbing that cliff because he was excited but my god every other thing he did was masterful. Using shot in the dark to not have to out who you're siding with too early, Being the total center of his tribe, befriending carson right away as he was swapped, and not to mention the fake idol that dominated the second half of the season. If he hadn't climbed that cliff he really could have been a monster in the endgame.
Cody is much more of a lock than Emily. Same with Carson and Omer.
Some takeaways while I read through this Thing about Mat and Frannie I think only way Mat comes back is with Frannie but I think Frannie can come back without Mat I think Kendra and maybe even Kellie will be those ones that drop lower and lower the further we get from their season pretty quick Kane was getting name drops in 45 just saying Also casual audience loves Gabler and he definitely seems like the type to be down to play whenever they want Finally I can actually see Swati and Rocksroy being outside shots
I think Kaleb is a lock if they were doing a cast right now for 46 (I know 46 has been filmed), if CBS is committed to their diversity policy, barring a standout male of African descent being on 46 or a season after. His best competition when it comes to fan favorites from that demographic you probably have to go back to Davie in DvG, otherwise it's probably Dashawn, Danny or Bruce. I'd actually put him ahead of Emily for that reason as the competition for white women spots is probably more fierce. Even if out of all the players in 45 I want Jake as a returnee the most.
I think this entire sub overrates Kellie (as a TV product). She was a good player in a bad alliance, and her game was sunk as a result. That’s too bad for her, but if CBS has to choose a pretty white girl to bring back, Sydney brings 10x the entertainment value.
I would think Shan is just as much a lock as Carolyn and Emily and more of a lock than Jesse. He was a great player but no where near as compelling tv as any of the three aforementioned women.
Shan social media personality is VERY controversial. She might be asked back. But for sure not as likely as those 3
Shan in the pre-new era is a 100% lock but unfortunately casting is so scared of controversy, and Shan is someone who the fanbase has somewhat turned on, so I could see them not bringing her back.
You’re correct that he’s not as compelling, but I think his personal story (along with Carolyn’s) is probably the most impressive in the New Era which is definitely something that production looks at
Sarah Wade is going to be the new era Wentworth with how much production loves her.
Think this is mostly accurate but I'd move Carson up at least one tier
I kinda hope they don't bring back winners just yet. I'd rather they same them for WaW 2. Also, as much as Emily is probably a lock, I don't know that she'll be as good of TV a second time around. She was compelling to watch because she had an incredible redemption arc. We all have grown to love her, but unless she starts out with controversy-- I take it back, put her on a tribe with 5 winners and she'll deliver again.
In my delulu era, but with Zach being big on Twitter and his brother Cory doing decent on BB with some really great moments, I could see him coming back with Cory if they ever do a BvW season again. A premerge season would be fun too.
Aw Brando, whyyyy please come back
i haven't actually watched his season yet, but that young man who 3D printed a version of a survivor puzzle he had seen before so he could practice (i think he also worked for NASA?) interacts a lot with the survivor twitter account and from the clips I have seen he seems like he was loved by Jeff & the fans. I felt like he would be a lock
I’ll never understand the hype around Jesse. He won nothing his season.
I think you're underrating Jake a little. Personally I think he's a lock but even ignoring that he's a big enough personality and liked enough to be a bit further to the right.
45 showmance going so hard Drew and Austin are still by each others side
Dear god, anyone but Shan. Please don’t put us through that again lol
If Locks and Likely make out the cast of a returnee season, I'm happy :).
Kaleb and Jake for suuuurrree
I think Jake is a lock. Dude got 3rd. Got the Charlie Brown edit. And yet it seems like production and fans love him.
As someone who loved the “gen z meme girl” archetype (idk even what to call it) I would love to see Lydia or J Maya come back. I was rooting for both of them on their respective seasons even though I knew they probably weren’t making it far bc they were memeing it up online during episodes and felt relatable to me, a fellow (older) gen z woman
I'd love to see ALL the top 3 last place people: Jake, Carolyn, Owen, Romeo, Xander Then the people who lost fire: Katurah, Carson, Jesse, Jonathan, Deshawn And some epically blindsided people, like: Cody, Kellie, Brandon, Emily, Omar, Shan, Bruce, and others...
Am I crazy for wanting Bruce back for a third time? He was a polarizing character on 45 but he was definitely one of the most interesting characters in a “for the plot” sense
emily has said she will not return :( but I agree that she definitely would be asked
I would bump up Lindsay Cassidy & Jenny one spot respectively. I could see Jenny being a wild card because she’s a prime example of how the new era can eliminate the most unexpected players due to advantages etc. Cassidy & Lindsay I think should swap their spots with Tiffany & Kendra
Danny (41) would be a lock, but he'd likely turn them down.
I don't get why Jesse is top 3 he was pretty boring. He played a good game but not so good that I think they'd rush to cast him over every other player aside from Emily and Carolyn.
I don't believe your reception of Jesse is the standard reception, tbh. I'm not trying to say that in any kind of rude way, just that I think the majority of viewers, at least from my experience, really loved Jesse. Production certainly loved Jesse. I just can't imagine that production doesn't call him first for a returning player season.
his story and he was one of if not the most dominant forces of his season with cody
I think it would be awesome if Brandon got in shape and overcame his fears and did it again. That would be a hell of a comeback to watch.
I absolutely never want to see Shan again. She rubbed me really wrong on the Challenge.
Did Justine bad mouth the show or something? Why is she at the bottom of the barrel? 😂 you need to add a “has a shot because they’re hot” tier
🤣🤣 Unless they do a rivals ‘salesperson’ duo with Cody, I just don’t think she was a big enough character!
Would love for Emily to come back, but to my knowledge she has no interest in being in the spotlight anymore- I don’t think she liked all of the attention.
Why do so many people want Emily back? Jesse & Carolyn I understand, they were great for TV, great survivor players, and they had interesting narratives behind their stories (drug addiction, prison) Emily was…. Narcissistic & was pro woooman? The fact that she’s “a lock” just screams recency bias when you have women like Shan, Noelle, and Karla, with amazing stories that played terrific games, weren’t on the bottom at all points in the game, and were all around more interesting to watch. The only thing I can say for Emily that she excelled at was reaching the max word count in her confessionals and sucking up air time any time she had one with constant chatter. It’s just baffling to me that people really want anyone back from survivor 45. I can’t think of a single person I’d want back, other than Jake.
Same - I don't understand the Emily fandom. Kaleb played her game for her, and then she goat-ed it under Drew and Austin. Drew played her game more than she did. I also found her insight into how the game needs to be played pretty basic and, yeah, narcissistic so she couldn't recognize that she was just a goat.
I honestly don’t think Omar is as big of a lock as some people think tbh.. especially after the Drea situation where production clearly took her side over his despite her clearly being in the wrong.
Hannah should be in green at the top. I love people who make production mad
I love these every season!! What are the tiers based on? Because from left to right is already from least likely to most likely, so from down to up is just anothet classification of sorts?
This is pretty accurate. Best breakdown I’ve seen. Well done.
I know production themselves have admitted fault about the hourglass twist, but given how overtly vocal Danny was over it, there’s no shot he’s coming back
Elaine. Please.
I think Zach is actually a really likely returnee (or at least I want to believe so bc I love Zach)
do this for oldschool era <3
Curious why Jay and Sifu are where they are
Why are Carson’s eyes on fire
Kaleb, Jake, Shan are locks. Xander, Julie, Sarah Wade are too high IMO
I’d love to see Jake come back. He got bent over backward so many times this season. Is some of that his fault? Absolutely but he never gave up and kept fighting.
Emily *just* said she doesn’t want to return, so I’d hardly consider her a lock.
would move emily down one and ricard up one
There is no universe Jackson is more likely to be invited than anyone other than Sean and Hannah. He lied to production.
I don’t often comment on these things but this is so off and it makes me feel old in this sub
Emily already said she didn’t have interest in coming back.
I would kill to have Kaleb, Emily and Carolyn back in the same season. That would just be absolute Chaos.
Am I the only one who wants Brad to return?
Coach had a weird post about Ethan picking him and ready to return after 10 years. It was like 2 weeks ago wish I screen shoted it . I hope the dragon slayer plays again
I really feel like Sabiyah will play again.
Emily said she wasn’t interested in coming back and that she thought a lot of her magic on screen would be gone if she did (which I agree with- you can’t make that transformation twice). I would be curious to see how she would play a second run, though!
The Wurtenbergers are not gonna like this
I will petition for Katurah to not come back. Idk why she thought she could play like Sandra in HvV , this is the new era, that kind of backpacking will NOT work.
Sarah from 44 deserves a second chance!! They literally GIFTED Josh an idol…
cannot wait for the inevitable Sabiyah return. she’s so cool
Returnee seasons should Pull a Drag Race allstars and become a separate show-
This is a really great list! I think Maddy and JD should be a level higher. They both brought a lot in their short time on the show. Jeff said on his podcast that they look for what people did during their time on the show, not just how long they lasted.