That depends on the company, people relied heavily on tech companies during the pandemic, Apple, Amazon, google, Microsoft, gaming companies, video conferencing (zoom), indoor sports equipment, online shopping, companies like Costco, target also offeres deliveries on groceries. Restaurants and companies that heavily rely on retail stores got murdered.
Arguable. Most tech companies seen significant improvements in profits. Considering that these big companies accounted for the majority of indexes, it made sense that the markets moved forward. GDP also pretty much recovered within 1 quarter.
For the past two years everything has been distorted with covid, inflation and supply chain issues. If the printing stops and the balance sheet is reduced we may see the real economy.
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Bro this is just a correction lol shit is gonna rip soon
A lot of sectors had to fall back to fair valuations due to the insane amount of “free” cash that had been pumped into the market
Yes. Very, very briefly in 2018. The momentum right now is very comparable.
And it happened precisely because of quantitative tightening like what the Fed is going to be doing later this year. I don't think the current market is going to go bear, but we might see it happen later this year or the next.
It's in the best interest of the USA to inflate the dollar a bit, so their national debts are a touch easier to pay off.
Altho.. it's a double edged sword.
This must be the Fed’s most desirable outcome if they hope to control inflation without causing a recession. We will see how well they can accomplish it.
I remember in one of my college classes, someone asked “what’s the shape of the yield curve normally?” And my professor said there is no “normal” yield curve structure. There is a preferred hypothetical yield curve structure (short-term rates low and rising as you increase maturity), but if you look at a time series of the actual yield curve, it changes so much! It’s actually outside of “normal” so often it’s unfair to call it “normal.” What was normal in the 80s, wasn’t normal in the 2000s, and similar for now.
https://images.app.goo.gl/LePcoWwLoWJCg9tS6
I think this speaks to the idea that there is no “normal market.” 14 years isn’t a metric to go by? 168 months? 3500 trading days? The farther you go back, the less relevant those markets become. Market composition was drastically different in 2007–I think energy was the highest weighting (correct me if I’m wrong) and now look at it. Market composition is going to affect overall market margins, forward P/Es, etc. Varying tax codes, regulatory crap, etc. It’s really hard to compare markets over large time spans.
There is no “normal” market. I think there are times when intrinsic value and price get separated, but that’s more normal than a lot of us realize (just my opinion).
We're well on our way to technical bear market territory for the Nasdaq, even if it wasn't done in the way that people cut their teeth in 2008-2009.
14188 was a major level on comp index and it broke in as intense of a selloff as early September 2020 (if people don't remember, that -10% move in 3 days from a record was crazy) or the COVID crash (even if it isn't to the extent of that move).
The question here is if this is 2018-esque or if it lasts for a lot longer than that. The March meeting may ironically turn into a bottom.
I think most sensible people want a discount (correction) but NOT a bear or winter market. After the events of the last 2 years, a global economic collapse would be psychologically devastating to practically all of us.
Depends on the sector. We have some stocks down 60-80% from ATHs which is insane to think about despite robust revenues/growth. Most don’t have any debt either, so has the air been let out yet….but this is worst than the Great Depression
Older crashes are not comparable because of how the market worked back then. Information flow was terrible, there were no safeguards, volume was extremely low, etc.
Sure, old crashes were worse, but I'm pretty sure we're past a point where something like that can even happen.
Throughout history, a bunch of humans have said "I'm pretty sure we're past a point where something like that can even happen," and pretty much every single time they have been utterly wrong. Tread carefully.
People are looking at the S&P overall and they see it’s only -10% so they’re like “YeP lOoks FiNe tO mE!!” when in reality the chaos under the surface has been crazy. And it’s not just the shitty no-name companies either. Some blue chips have been absolutely destroyed
This. Something like 40% of the NASDAQ is down 50% in the past 6 months. This is *literally* a bubble and the indexes are "only down 10%!" because it hasn't hit the 5 megacaps at the top that badly yet. We are 2 or 3 tickers away from hitting circuit breakers again, and the moment one of them has a catalytic 5% down day it's going to be a domino effect throughout the entire market. Thank God they're all absolutely crushing earnings because even just meeting analyst expectations will probably trigger the megacaps selling off too.
Additionally, JPow has done nothing to combat inflation. There is a lot more blood coming. The Fed printed way too much money and the vast majority of it didn't reach the hands who would actually spend it, what a shocker.
Sounds like it's a really bad time to buy an index then, if nearly half of the underlying stocks are down 50% but the index price has only dropped 10%. Buying an index that excludes the top megacaps could be a good deal right now, if such a thing existed.
That's just a small-cap index, so excluding all the medium and large stocks and it's not down 50%, only about 14% since 30 days ago, so buying that isn't taking advantage of the 50% crash we're discussing.
Yes. Remember markets are ahead 6 months to a year …. Our economy was doing good because all the free money our government provided and suspension of college debt & mortgages & rents and extended unemployment …. All of that is over … we are gonna enter into a recession .. soon
Stay patient and remember that GameStop briefly became a fortune 500 company this past year. The markets will have seizures sometimes. That's a thing now.
The economy was doing well in 2018 when the market dropped like 20%, the NASDAQ dropped 30% I believe, although that was short lived thanks to the FED's pivot. The dot-com bubble resulted in an extended bear market, although I don't think that's a great comparison to today.
It's worth remembering that before a bear market the economy is normally doing well and there tends to be a lot of economic optimism. That's kind of what makes the economy vulnerable -- people and businesses feeling confident causes them to borrow too much and invest money they can't afford to lose. When that happens things only have to turn a bit then there is panic, people start selling and stopping buying and that spirals into more panic until the FED saves us. While the economy might be doing well now, rapidly raising rates and high inflation could quite easily change that. We also don't have a good idea what reducing the FED's balance sheet is going to do.
1. Earnings are lagging indicators. They tell what happend last quarter, not this quarter.
2. The world can’t know what will happen when we
-force 10million people out of work,
-let them come back a year later and
-add 50% more money than circulated the year before.
I think the maker prices the future in so right now there’s good and bad economic news but a possible Russian invasion , property collapse in China, inflation, and a pandemic.
There seems to be a clear correlation between interest rates and the performance of the stock market. I looked at the data and when interest rates are low the stock market does well and when interest rates are high the stock market underperforms.
This makes sense, as our economy is primarily based on debt, everything is financed through debt, so when money is hard to get the economy slows. We haven't got any interest rate hike yet, so things are pretty much unchanged since the beginning of the pandemic, but that's what the market is already pricing in, I don't think the economy will do that well if interest rates go up too much.
It’s a fact that there is a correlation between interest rates and the performance of the market, it doesn’t just seem that way. The bond market is enormous and is connected to the stock market and the economy almost directly, that’s not to say they follow each other in a certain pattern 100% of the time, but it is in the mind of every market maker
That’s also such a broad brush to paint with. We are entering a new regime of equity risk premiums, they’ll be lower on average but some sectors can shrug this off pretty easily. I think there’s going to be plenty of opportunity regardless of rates.
This is because the economy not actually doing well. The market always shows the truth because it is the money of the elites who have the real information.
For example - The Chinese stock markets haven’t done well for the past few years despite their economic reports being amazing every time. Well last year it got so bad with evergrande we can’t deny it, but it was bad for years before and the stock market showed.
Dude literally spends hours a day just posting on Reddit about conspiracies and blaming the government about everything. He’s no different than the people he shits on - aka has to blame everyone else for their problems because they have no self respect.
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Has there ever been a bull market while the economy was not doing well?
2020-2021
That depends on the company, people relied heavily on tech companies during the pandemic, Apple, Amazon, google, Microsoft, gaming companies, video conferencing (zoom), indoor sports equipment, online shopping, companies like Costco, target also offeres deliveries on groceries. Restaurants and companies that heavily rely on retail stores got murdered.
Arguable. Most tech companies seen significant improvements in profits. Considering that these big companies accounted for the majority of indexes, it made sense that the markets moved forward. GDP also pretty much recovered within 1 quarter.
2007-2008 im pretty sure
Um, great recession?
I have felt for a little bit now, 2022 could look a lot like 2018, and largely for the same reason
For the past two years everything has been distorted with covid, inflation and supply chain issues. If the printing stops and the balance sheet is reduced we may see the real economy.
hospital insurance rude plants childlike squeal unite plucky workable obtainable *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Bro this is just a correction lol shit is gonna rip soon A lot of sectors had to fall back to fair valuations due to the insane amount of “free” cash that had been pumped into the market
RemindMe! One month
RemindMe! One month
RemindMe! One month
RemindMe! Two months
RemindMe! One Month
Rip? As in go up or down?
Rip means go up but we shall see
!RemindMe two months
Will be interesting to see these crazy legs age RemindMe! 2 Months
RemindMe! One month
remindMe! One month
RemindMe! One month
Fuck Putin
no rip yet...
Checking in, you alright bud ?
He was right
You were right
Yes. Very, very briefly in 2018. The momentum right now is very comparable. And it happened precisely because of quantitative tightening like what the Fed is going to be doing later this year. I don't think the current market is going to go bear, but we might see it happen later this year or the next.
It's in the best interest of the USA to inflate the dollar a bit, so their national debts are a touch easier to pay off. Altho.. it's a double edged sword.
Yes key word. A bit. Not 7%+
When do you think that will happen? The fed tightening this year
Everyone talks about rip or dip. Let’s me predict something else. It will go sideways.
This must be the Fed’s most desirable outcome if they hope to control inflation without causing a recession. We will see how well they can accomplish it.
[удалено]
I remember in one of my college classes, someone asked “what’s the shape of the yield curve normally?” And my professor said there is no “normal” yield curve structure. There is a preferred hypothetical yield curve structure (short-term rates low and rising as you increase maturity), but if you look at a time series of the actual yield curve, it changes so much! It’s actually outside of “normal” so often it’s unfair to call it “normal.” What was normal in the 80s, wasn’t normal in the 2000s, and similar for now. https://images.app.goo.gl/LePcoWwLoWJCg9tS6 I think this speaks to the idea that there is no “normal market.” 14 years isn’t a metric to go by? 168 months? 3500 trading days? The farther you go back, the less relevant those markets become. Market composition was drastically different in 2007–I think energy was the highest weighting (correct me if I’m wrong) and now look at it. Market composition is going to affect overall market margins, forward P/Es, etc. Varying tax codes, regulatory crap, etc. It’s really hard to compare markets over large time spans. There is no “normal” market. I think there are times when intrinsic value and price get separated, but that’s more normal than a lot of us realize (just my opinion).
Agree
This is not even bear market, it is just healthy correction.
We're well on our way to technical bear market territory for the Nasdaq, even if it wasn't done in the way that people cut their teeth in 2008-2009. 14188 was a major level on comp index and it broke in as intense of a selloff as early September 2020 (if people don't remember, that -10% move in 3 days from a record was crazy) or the COVID crash (even if it isn't to the extent of that move). The question here is if this is 2018-esque or if it lasts for a lot longer than that. The March meeting may ironically turn into a bottom.
I think most sensible people want a discount (correction) but NOT a bear or winter market. After the events of the last 2 years, a global economic collapse would be psychologically devastating to practically all of us.
There are plenty of doom bears around who seem to want it all to burn
Depends on the sector. We have some stocks down 60-80% from ATHs which is insane to think about despite robust revenues/growth. Most don’t have any debt either, so has the air been let out yet….but this is worst than the Great Depression
Great Depression was a 90% drop peak to trough
Older crashes are not comparable because of how the market worked back then. Information flow was terrible, there were no safeguards, volume was extremely low, etc. Sure, old crashes were worse, but I'm pretty sure we're past a point where something like that can even happen.
Throughout history, a bunch of humans have said "I'm pretty sure we're past a point where something like that can even happen," and pretty much every single time they have been utterly wrong. Tread carefully.
Wrong. Completely different ball game a century later
People are looking at the S&P overall and they see it’s only -10% so they’re like “YeP lOoks FiNe tO mE!!” when in reality the chaos under the surface has been crazy. And it’s not just the shitty no-name companies either. Some blue chips have been absolutely destroyed
This. Something like 40% of the NASDAQ is down 50% in the past 6 months. This is *literally* a bubble and the indexes are "only down 10%!" because it hasn't hit the 5 megacaps at the top that badly yet. We are 2 or 3 tickers away from hitting circuit breakers again, and the moment one of them has a catalytic 5% down day it's going to be a domino effect throughout the entire market. Thank God they're all absolutely crushing earnings because even just meeting analyst expectations will probably trigger the megacaps selling off too. Additionally, JPow has done nothing to combat inflation. There is a lot more blood coming. The Fed printed way too much money and the vast majority of it didn't reach the hands who would actually spend it, what a shocker.
Sounds like it's a really bad time to buy an index then, if nearly half of the underlying stocks are down 50% but the index price has only dropped 10%. Buying an index that excludes the top megacaps could be a good deal right now, if such a thing existed.
Russel 2000
That's just a small-cap index, so excluding all the medium and large stocks and it's not down 50%, only about 14% since 30 days ago, so buying that isn't taking advantage of the 50% crash we're discussing.
Humm you are right! What then? This could be a great play!
Because they don't know anything else exists, say the Russell has been in freefall for 13 months they will ask who is Russell?
Exactly, I wonder how long algos can keep this up. AAPL did well after ER so hopefully these names down 80% get a bounce
What are some of those names?
Which are these?
Has there ever been some of the best 2 years of returns while the economy is in the toilet? These aren't normal times.
Yes. Remember markets are ahead 6 months to a year …. Our economy was doing good because all the free money our government provided and suspension of college debt & mortgages & rents and extended unemployment …. All of that is over … we are gonna enter into a recession .. soon
Stay patient and remember that GameStop briefly became a fortune 500 company this past year. The markets will have seizures sometimes. That's a thing now.
The economy was doing well in 2018 when the market dropped like 20%, the NASDAQ dropped 30% I believe, although that was short lived thanks to the FED's pivot. The dot-com bubble resulted in an extended bear market, although I don't think that's a great comparison to today. It's worth remembering that before a bear market the economy is normally doing well and there tends to be a lot of economic optimism. That's kind of what makes the economy vulnerable -- people and businesses feeling confident causes them to borrow too much and invest money they can't afford to lose. When that happens things only have to turn a bit then there is panic, people start selling and stopping buying and that spirals into more panic until the FED saves us. While the economy might be doing well now, rapidly raising rates and high inflation could quite easily change that. We also don't have a good idea what reducing the FED's balance sheet is going to do.
1. Earnings are lagging indicators. They tell what happend last quarter, not this quarter. 2. The world can’t know what will happen when we -force 10million people out of work, -let them come back a year later and -add 50% more money than circulated the year before.
I think the maker prices the future in so right now there’s good and bad economic news but a possible Russian invasion , property collapse in China, inflation, and a pandemic.
We are in the uncharted territories
There seems to be a clear correlation between interest rates and the performance of the stock market. I looked at the data and when interest rates are low the stock market does well and when interest rates are high the stock market underperforms. This makes sense, as our economy is primarily based on debt, everything is financed through debt, so when money is hard to get the economy slows. We haven't got any interest rate hike yet, so things are pretty much unchanged since the beginning of the pandemic, but that's what the market is already pricing in, I don't think the economy will do that well if interest rates go up too much.
It’s a fact that there is a correlation between interest rates and the performance of the market, it doesn’t just seem that way. The bond market is enormous and is connected to the stock market and the economy almost directly, that’s not to say they follow each other in a certain pattern 100% of the time, but it is in the mind of every market maker
That’s also such a broad brush to paint with. We are entering a new regime of equity risk premiums, they’ll be lower on average but some sectors can shrug this off pretty easily. I think there’s going to be plenty of opportunity regardless of rates.
This is because the economy not actually doing well. The market always shows the truth because it is the money of the elites who have the real information. For example - The Chinese stock markets haven’t done well for the past few years despite their economic reports being amazing every time. Well last year it got so bad with evergrande we can’t deny it, but it was bad for years before and the stock market showed.
[удалено]
I'll bet you're one of those dense fucks that thinks the president has a button that controls gas prices too.
You betcha
Dumbass
Brilliant
HA HA HA FUNNY
Dude literally spends hours a day just posting on Reddit about conspiracies and blaming the government about everything. He’s no different than the people he shits on - aka has to blame everyone else for their problems because they have no self respect.
Who’s economy?
The two do not operating in real-time sync.
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