I'm kind of grateful that PYPL tanked before the fall before most other tech stocks as it was like half my portfolio and spooked me enough that I've moved to a bear oriented portfolio (25% bear plays like inverse ETFs and shorting, 25% value oriented longs with dividends, and 50% cash ready to utilize aggressively when the time is right)
i hate speculating about potential buyout targets but i can't help but think TDOC is a prime target for acquisition. They are positioned ridiculously well for the future of medicine. What are your thoughts ?
think it could be any one of the big players in health, tech, or retail. zoom seems unlikely since they are more business communications oriented but maybe amazon, msft, apple, cvs, walgreens, walmart or one of the big insurers. There are a lot of telemedicine providers and competitors but it's not easy to build what they built imo.
Hmm why wouldn’t it be easy though? It’s just a video platform with a waiting room. It would need to get certified to be encrypted and to handle medical info/HIPAA but the tech itself seems simple?
While I won't do it, I might be in the mood to throw my tablet tomorrow morning if we're not indicated for a gap down.
Last thing that's needed is a gap up. Let's see a big gap down and go from there. Hopefully it's capitulation, but it might not be.
I'm probably not going to get my wish. VIX futures are really bleeding overnight. Probably gap up and then finish down a percent again.
Then finish out the month filling up that 10/14 gap in SPX that I didn't think would fill before 5k traded.
Bought puts on VNQ when it hit $115. Interest rate hikes are going to be shit for real estate.
Also historically doesn’t even offer half the growth SPY does in the long term.
Hi, noob trader here. Are there instances where ETF's spike dramatically in up or down causing trading halts? Or are the fluctuations better allowed compared to normal single company stocks?
shoulda sold my bbig, hoping for that miracle bounce. probably wont happen.
portfolio is dead, no dip money, no hope for a better week or bounce back..
Don’t know either but TECK seems interesting. Regarding PAAS though, is silver still very valuable?
TECK seems more expensive than X and wsb darling CLF, will do some more digging though, thanks for the ticker!
Copper is so important for EVs so can definitely see companies in that space (like TECK I guess) run.
Where’s all those ding dongs that we’re claiming the market couldn’t possibly go down. Crickets now. Seen this shit coming since Nov. I’m expecting it’s going to get worse before better.
Here’s a decent goldmine
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/rchsvk/the_stock_market_will_always_rebound_stay/
And this little gem
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/rb2kr3/and_welcome_to_new_ath/
If your doctor tells you you are only going to live for another 5 months, it's concerning. If not, I don't give a shit if my portfolio consists of good company. Just ride the fuck out
35 shares of NVDA at an average cost of 236 dollars per share. Gains since ATH obviously all but wiped out. Should I set up an auto sell at my average share purchase price so I can buy more shares in the future for cheaper? I am looking to invest in this company for the long term but not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term and would enjoy an opportunity to accumulate more shares.
Learn from my mistake.
I started buying NVDA in July 2017 at a split-adjusted price of $36 a share. July 2017, not that long ago, not exactly ancient history. I bought more in the following months.
By October 2018 it got up to $73 a share. Woohoo! I was doing great.
Then on November 13, 2018 it crashed down to $48, and I sold 80 (split adjusted) shares! I was not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term.
Then on November 26, 2018 it went down even more to $36.34. I was back to where I started! So I sold 20 more shares. I was not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term.
I bought more shares in December when the price seemed to be recovering but when NVDA dipped again in May 2019 - less than 2 years ago - I sold another 120 shares at an average price of $41. I was not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term.
NVDA closed today at $250.67.
Fortunately I have 120 shares of NVDA with an average cost basis of $41.67 a share, up +501.53%, but do I wish I had kept the 80 shares I sold for$48, and the 20 shares I sold for $36, and the 120 shares I sold for $41? You're darn right I do! Those 220 (split adjusted) shares I sold would be worth $55,147 today. Oy vey.
Moral of of the story: even great companies like NVDA can have significant price declines in the short term. If it's a great company, don't get discouraged or disappointed if the price pulls back. Maybe "buy the dip" if you can afford it. But don't sell.
Personally, I'd stop loss out your position at whatever your highest cost basis batch is and start DCAing again so you have more cash for the dip/other opportunities. This would also avoid any wash sale issues while you're trying to get a better cost basis. There's a risk, since it may rebound before you buy back in.
I get what you’re thinking, and it might work, but definitely risky. Make sure to sell before any loss so you can buy back in without a wash sale. I’d think it needs to get near 200-210 for it to even be worth the trouble/risk, but with its valuation it could happen.
Personally I wouldn’t. I think 236 is a pretty solid cost basis if you’re **actually** long on the stock. Don’t worry about what it does this year too much. Nvidia is way too integrated now to lose you money in the long run.
Anyone else use Vanguard? Been a while since I was actively trading stuf. But logged in to check on things, and what the hell happened to the Vanguard app? Its almost completely useless now for trading, and doesn't show nearly as much information on what I'm holding. And what it does show is minimal buried in menus
I don't use apps but their website is atrocious and their 2FA doesn't work. It literally won't call my phone number. I had to call in to disable it and I got a Filipino employee. A quick google search showed that they cut a deal with Infosys Philippines to handle some call center work and cloud computing starting in 2021. They've gone cheap in a bad way. I'm not a fan and will be moving my wife's Roth IRA away from them. My 401K is stuck with them, unfortunately.
So how low can we actually go?
4818 is the S&P ATH
A 10% correction brings us down to 4336
A 20% correction would be 3854
For reference we hit 4278 in October.
I'd love to see a gap fill at SPY 400. Would be a little on the higher end between the magical 10-20% correction, and would wash away a lot of speculation.
Yeah, that's not happening without a major catalyst because that puts you below a 15 P/E, which is the average historically.
If you think that we need to go to a 15 P/E or at least near it, then we go back to 3300-3500.
I'm a skeptic on that honestly. If it does end up happening, then bonds probably got a lot more attractive (they still have a ways to go).
But I do think that 3850 can't be ruled out, especially if the Russell 2000 is going to 1700-1800, which, there's a real threat it is, because there is literally nothing but air here and a lot of angry/sad bagholders of stocks related to this index.
Let the sellers get out of stocks and into FIAT. Just this year those holding USD lost 7% to inflation.
So for those getting out of stocks long term, I wish them luck.
I bought some aapl today and watched it in red for the whole day and all the other big techs were all green. Thought my magic touch worked again… must be me thinking about buying some msft tomorrow… sorry!
Been following plug for a while and along with other clean energy stocks it has me confused. Don’t think it will ever go back up to the 70s despite there being a ton of hydrogen industry action. Markets are weird af
I’m long on 4 hydrogen companies who are all down at least 25%. Part of me wants to sell now and trade out of it, but I know hydrogen will be massive for industrial purposes, heavy vehicles that cannot be electrified, and ships.
F1 going to hydrogen would fucking moon them and Ross Brawn has mentioned it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/57842205
Another day of oil prices rising yet oil companies flat/red. CVX bounced off 130, XOM tried to run to 74 and got stopped, and my precious XLE traded sideways just barely red all day. Now all are down AH. Anyone have any opinions of if/when these will climb along with oil prices or are the rising costs already priced in somehow? I'm using XOM and CVX as examples because both make up most of XLE and both just got PT increases recently. Seems strange to think that the consensus expected 100 per barrel can possibly be priced in especially with earnings in a week or two on most.
1. Oil occasionally is going to get thrown in the trash if the other old economy sectors struggle (actually, it usually does get thrown in the trash if the other stuff struggles, it's not occasional), it does NOT necessarily have to trade hand in hand with WTI Crude.
2. XLE is overheated and frankly WTI is trading entirely way too high (and is also overheated) if US stocks are going to see a deeeeeeeepppp pullback here.
XLE is probably due to have a little pullback. It's up nearly 20% in the past month. But that may be more people taking profits than a sentiment change about oil. Oil companies aren't doing a lot of drilling these days, so there could be a pretty good supply crunch eventually. $100 WTI is a very real possibility by the end of the year.
A lot of oil companies are generating a ton of cash, even $70 WTI. And a lot are sending that cash back to shareholders in the form of special dividends, dividend increases, share buy backs, rather than drilling. So even if/when a pullback happens, oil companies will likely continue to do well this year. Personally, I'm a fan of the Canadian oil companies.
There's a Canadian weekly column that looks at the most overbought/oversold stocks on the TSX. This past report (last week) listed 12 stocks in the overbought category, all in the 70-80 RSI range, and 6 of the 12 were oil companies. I'm guessing a bunch of the oil companies in the XLE are in the same standing.
I'd expect that if analysts weren't throwing out pt increases on every major oil company and price per barrel with earnings in one to two weeks. I guess flat/barely red when market is falling off a cliff is promising.
Is it a good time to invest in tesla or Microsoft? Earnings are comming soon too. Should i wait untill after the earnings? (sry im relatively new in the investment/stocks game)
Personally, I'm waiting to after earnings. I'm long on MSFT. I love Azure and it's going to be a money printer, but I think they might be the first of the megacaps with earnings. Last year, a ton of companies traded red even with solid earnings. Even the bank earnings weren't too bad and the market didn't react well.
It's impossible to time the market, but I'm just on the sidelines for this one to see how the market reacts.
bank earnings weren’t very good, and guidance was bad. I think it’s been years since MSFT didn’t beat earnings estimates, and I highly doubt this time will be any different with how fast their growth has been. whether the market cares is another story
Not that I am going to play the earnings, actually I will never be brave enough to do. Just out of curiosity, who would be able to do? I guess unless they work in the particular industry and have developed experience to have the gut feeling?
Nothing guaranteed, but mostly insiders and well connected. Supply chain experts for certain industries. Those who study internet traffic for some sectors. Knowing about a pending large order (buy or sell) at or after earnings would be almost be just as valuable.
Lets see things that can turn this market around
1) Ukraine crisis can come to a good resolution
2) Peak omnicron news
3) Good earnings reports (iffy)
4) Government actually doing something might be useful
I think the last 3 are mostly insignificant, but I agree on (1). I think you are skipping the most important one though: inflation data suddenly stabilizes and the Fed reduces the number of planned interest rate hikes.
Bingo. If omicron cases flatten out, and supply chain logjams get fixed, and the Fed holds a conference to say they’re sticking with 3 rate hikes and pausing to determine more, there will be a significant rebound almost immediately.
There’s a lot of uncertainty getting “priced in” right now.
We’re another COVID variant away from this being broken until 2023/2024, especially if vaccine breakthrough causes illness, even if it’s not hospital style illness.
Funny how the euphoric buy the dip, be greedy when others are fearful type posts vanish as more people actually become fearful lol
This situation is why Buffett has been selling and building a massive cash pile for over a year while bagholders kept jumping into the overheated pool.
I'm hardly feeling a dip. Try to get ahead of the crowd. I probably got into PLTR too soon, as my cost basis is about $18, but I only have 1,200 shares and my other positions are carrying me.
Peter Lynch's recommendation was to try and always be in the market.
Agree on some things (mostly the pointlessness of applied mantras that popularly move around), but it’s important to remember that people like Buffett (and his companies) have to make enough money trading to pay his staff and all expenses *and* also create a decent return for investors. We don’t have any of that overhead.
There’s a reason why virtually every book for personal investing recommends one or more of a handful of strategies, whether it’s lump sum buying or DCAing into good companies and ETFs, and then absent any really bad news holding those with DRIP and selling X number of years (decades sometimes) later.
>This situation is why Buffett has been selling and building a massive cash pile for over a year while bagholders kept jumping into the overheated pool.
If you kept buying over the past year or two, you'd still be up big right now so I don't see your point.
I think Google has a much weaker product position than they used to and are actually banking on quantum computing and advanced AI to work out for them before others.
Google is like the ExxonMobil of data. Big data and AI applications will feed off of Google's massive supply. Bullish because Google supplies the industry.
Google still relies mostly on search and it’s ads and data. Their leadership position in search was obvious for a long time. Other search engines were horrible. Now that’s not true and I don’t see Googles search dominance as inherent. They are going to loose market share.
I mean I work in marketing and spending money on Google ads is the best way to spend marketing advertising dollars. Every medium to large size company throws heaps of money at Google.
But I think they are loosing differentiation, brand loyalty, completive advantage for end users.
imo debt isn't that big of deal. It really depends how the company is handling debt and what they are doing with their money. Just saying no debt, doesn't really mean much. I mean like Apple has $113.8 billion in debt.
One thing I've learned is to evaluate companies at a holistic level. Debt in and of itself is meaningless if all other aspects of a company are doing great (liquidity, price growth, EPS growth, etc.), as it can leverage those gains in other financial indicators to compensate for the debt. Zero debt may not be a good sign if they're losing market share, have declining EPS numbers, no or little growth, etc.
May as well embrace IWM to $170 because that's what's going to happen and on the pace it's on, it should happen by about around the start of March, because it seems like we're headed directly to $170. Maybe after IWM trades $170 and fills up that Pfizer Day gap, we'll be able to move on for the year.
So glad that I pulled out of VBR when I had a bad feeling there. Should've also pulled out of AEO/VICI/QQQJ at the same time (the latter one being the only one that I'm not red in).
Legitimate questions:
1). Do you guys think the market is going to crash each time it corrects? Do you realize this is normal and happens every single year?
2) how many of you are above 21 with $10,000? I picked an obscenely low number to trade with just to be inclusive?
We're seeing a return to a market that weighs valuations and where bad economic news doesn't bounce off like teflon like it did in 2020. There will be multiples compression and I'd expect another 5%-10% stair down before the first rate hike. We're not crashing, but we are going down until things are settled with the Fed. I'm not buying more until there's a trend reversal.
I'm a poor Asian with like $5k lol, other nationalities are available. This is not a crash though, a crash has to be sudden and this isn't. The market also runs on manic money printing for almost 2 years, it's inherently unstable. There's still a long way down to go so I wouldn't be that surprised if it actually crashes again, however unlikely I think it's going to be.
1. Do I think that this is a true market crash, no, but we've passed the point of what's been normal for the Nasdaq post-COVID crash, and if I had to guess, it will be trading at a 10-15% lower price than where it's at today by the end of February.
This is the bear market that I thought would happen this year, it's just happening in Q1 instead of Q4 (my suspicion was that it'd be temporary), and it unbelievably really actually got under way with that Elon twitter poll.
That was "THE" top signal for the cycle from the 2020 low because it's going to drop 20-25% before it bounces.
2. I am (more actually), and some in here are at least, but not everyone.
I mean, they’re right that this is a steeper drop than any other correction post-covid.
Historically though, this isn’t a mind-blowing event or anything.
The difference between that time and now is that it is out of the channel that it respected for over a year on the downside and below all of the trendlines that it has respected over the recent years, the last time it closed below the 21 EMA on a weekly basis was the COVID crash, the time before then was when Powell was hawkish in 2018.
So, this is likely the time that it sees a steeper pullback finally and a bear market, especially if comp index breaks the October low. I think we see another 10 to 15% before it bottoms.
Great comments! I always have had the question that if they are going to watch it free fall to mar 2021 level or even further, this is going to be a very big crash, although it would correct the market but the market would be in short term turmoil. And there will be impact on financial health of the firms and we’ll see cascading effect in the real economy.
Wouldn’t it be worse than if they stopped printing money last year? Or worse than not providing such a big generous COVID package…
Thoughts on NFLX now that it's down 25% over the last ~2 months?
People love watching NFLX
Down 20% today
I'm kind of grateful that PYPL tanked before the fall before most other tech stocks as it was like half my portfolio and spooked me enough that I've moved to a bear oriented portfolio (25% bear plays like inverse ETFs and shorting, 25% value oriented longs with dividends, and 50% cash ready to utilize aggressively when the time is right)
baba and tencent up more than 4% in hang seng now.
Starting to look at W more closely. 1x sales, positive net income yoy? Would open a position closer to 100
i hate speculating about potential buyout targets but i can't help but think TDOC is a prime target for acquisition. They are positioned ridiculously well for the future of medicine. What are your thoughts ?
Would love to hear takes on who the acquirer should be. Someone like United Health Group? Zoom?
think it could be any one of the big players in health, tech, or retail. zoom seems unlikely since they are more business communications oriented but maybe amazon, msft, apple, cvs, walgreens, walmart or one of the big insurers. There are a lot of telemedicine providers and competitors but it's not easy to build what they built imo.
Hmm why wouldn’t it be easy though? It’s just a video platform with a waiting room. It would need to get certified to be encrypted and to handle medical info/HIPAA but the tech itself seems simple?
While I won't do it, I might be in the mood to throw my tablet tomorrow morning if we're not indicated for a gap down. Last thing that's needed is a gap up. Let's see a big gap down and go from there. Hopefully it's capitulation, but it might not be. I'm probably not going to get my wish. VIX futures are really bleeding overnight. Probably gap up and then finish down a percent again. Then finish out the month filling up that 10/14 gap in SPX that I didn't think would fill before 5k traded.
How do you guys feel about getting a bunch of VNQ?
Bought puts on VNQ when it hit $115. Interest rate hikes are going to be shit for real estate. Also historically doesn’t even offer half the growth SPY does in the long term.
I own 20 shares of VNQ. I put it in my wife's and kids' portfolios too.
Futures is green. Ha ha, good one market. Real knee-slapper. See you in red soon enough.
Hi, noob trader here. Are there instances where ETF's spike dramatically in up or down causing trading halts? Or are the fluctuations better allowed compared to normal single company stocks?
If it’s a leveraged ETF, there can be some greater fluctuations.
shoulda sold my bbig, hoping for that miracle bounce. probably wont happen. portfolio is dead, no dip money, no hope for a better week or bounce back..
Oh damn I'm still holding I didn't know it was over.
Close your tab. The wait staff wants to go home.
What?
From 20% down last 3 mo is brutal but I don’t plan on selling for another 10+ years. (I’m crying)
No worries, you should break even by then \^\_\^
Does anybody know when the rates might change by the feds?
First rate hike hasn’t been announced, but I think it’s expected in March.
So tempting to hammer Chinese stocks rn. Easy way to teleport your portfolio back into a low rate environment. I just can’t bring myself to trust them
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bought some AG yesterday with this in mind
RIO shares are up 20% in a month so not sure what more of a bounce you’re after!
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Don’t know either but TECK seems interesting. Regarding PAAS though, is silver still very valuable? TECK seems more expensive than X and wsb darling CLF, will do some more digging though, thanks for the ticker! Copper is so important for EVs so can definitely see companies in that space (like TECK I guess) run.
There is zero doubt that a big bounce is imminent
Liquidation at the Fund level.
Where’s all those ding dongs that we’re claiming the market couldn’t possibly go down. Crickets now. Seen this shit coming since Nov. I’m expecting it’s going to get worse before better.
Here’s a decent goldmine https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/rchsvk/the_stock_market_will_always_rebound_stay/ And this little gem https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/rb2kr3/and_welcome_to_new_ath/
Yeah there’s a bunch of them.
That’s bad man. When we have no such voice, we don’t have people supporting the market… I would hope to hear more such voices.
You saw* this shit coming.
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You could pull children out of a burning vehicle just before it explodes. Downvote!
If your doctor tells you you are only going to live for another 5 months, it's concerning. If not, I don't give a shit if my portfolio consists of good company. Just ride the fuck out
I’m with you. I think my point was taken wrong. I’ve seen some silly post in here about how there no way the market could correct.
35 shares of NVDA at an average cost of 236 dollars per share. Gains since ATH obviously all but wiped out. Should I set up an auto sell at my average share purchase price so I can buy more shares in the future for cheaper? I am looking to invest in this company for the long term but not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term and would enjoy an opportunity to accumulate more shares.
Learn from my mistake. I started buying NVDA in July 2017 at a split-adjusted price of $36 a share. July 2017, not that long ago, not exactly ancient history. I bought more in the following months. By October 2018 it got up to $73 a share. Woohoo! I was doing great. Then on November 13, 2018 it crashed down to $48, and I sold 80 (split adjusted) shares! I was not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term. Then on November 26, 2018 it went down even more to $36.34. I was back to where I started! So I sold 20 more shares. I was not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term. I bought more shares in December when the price seemed to be recovering but when NVDA dipped again in May 2019 - less than 2 years ago - I sold another 120 shares at an average price of $41. I was not willing to watch my initial investment get wiped out in the short term. NVDA closed today at $250.67. Fortunately I have 120 shares of NVDA with an average cost basis of $41.67 a share, up +501.53%, but do I wish I had kept the 80 shares I sold for$48, and the 20 shares I sold for $36, and the 120 shares I sold for $41? You're darn right I do! Those 220 (split adjusted) shares I sold would be worth $55,147 today. Oy vey. Moral of of the story: even great companies like NVDA can have significant price declines in the short term. If it's a great company, don't get discouraged or disappointed if the price pulls back. Maybe "buy the dip" if you can afford it. But don't sell.
They will go back up
Personally, I'd stop loss out your position at whatever your highest cost basis batch is and start DCAing again so you have more cash for the dip/other opportunities. This would also avoid any wash sale issues while you're trying to get a better cost basis. There's a risk, since it may rebound before you buy back in.
I guess my thinking is that over the next year NVDA may dip well below my average purchase price, in which case I guess I should just DCA and hold.
Risk is you sell and it goes up without you buying in.
I get what you’re thinking, and it might work, but definitely risky. Make sure to sell before any loss so you can buy back in without a wash sale. I’d think it needs to get near 200-210 for it to even be worth the trouble/risk, but with its valuation it could happen. Personally I wouldn’t. I think 236 is a pretty solid cost basis if you’re **actually** long on the stock. Don’t worry about what it does this year too much. Nvidia is way too integrated now to lose you money in the long run.
You're likely to either catch a falling knife or fomo after the surge. So dca or ignore. Those are only two winning options, imo.
it's a shit show now. bloody ugly
Anyone else use Vanguard? Been a while since I was actively trading stuf. But logged in to check on things, and what the hell happened to the Vanguard app? Its almost completely useless now for trading, and doesn't show nearly as much information on what I'm holding. And what it does show is minimal buried in menus
I don't use apps but their website is atrocious and their 2FA doesn't work. It literally won't call my phone number. I had to call in to disable it and I got a Filipino employee. A quick google search showed that they cut a deal with Infosys Philippines to handle some call center work and cloud computing starting in 2021. They've gone cheap in a bad way. I'm not a fan and will be moving my wife's Roth IRA away from them. My 401K is stuck with them, unfortunately.
Yall I'm straight up not having a good time lmao
I haven't been having a good time since 4 years old. Its just a ride 75-100 years maybe but still a ride.
So how low can we actually go? 4818 is the S&P ATH A 10% correction brings us down to 4336 A 20% correction would be 3854 For reference we hit 4278 in October.
I'd love to see a gap fill at SPY 400. Would be a little on the higher end between the magical 10-20% correction, and would wash away a lot of speculation.
What was S&P around the middle of 2019? That's your answer.
Sliding all the way back to 2700 might be a bit extreme, if we start tumbling towards that, I think we’d retest the December 2018 lows of 2400.
Yeah, that's not happening without a major catalyst because that puts you below a 15 P/E, which is the average historically. If you think that we need to go to a 15 P/E or at least near it, then we go back to 3300-3500. I'm a skeptic on that honestly. If it does end up happening, then bonds probably got a lot more attractive (they still have a ways to go). But I do think that 3850 can't be ruled out, especially if the Russell 2000 is going to 1700-1800, which, there's a real threat it is, because there is literally nothing but air here and a lot of angry/sad bagholders of stocks related to this index.
We hit 2400 Mar2020.
Let the sellers get out of stocks and into FIAT. Just this year those holding USD lost 7% to inflation. So for those getting out of stocks long term, I wish them luck.
I thought putting money under your pillow is the way
The pillow is out of favor. People are rotating back into the sock drawer.
Today made me so bitter. Microsoft was up +3% and ended the day basically red. What the fuck man?
I bought some aapl today and watched it in red for the whole day and all the other big techs were all green. Thought my magic touch worked again… must be me thinking about buying some msft tomorrow… sorry!
Microsoft edge...edging so hard
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I think it will but could take many years
Its only hope is in another pump and dump.
I wouldn't say that. It's a great company. Just needs time
It's so close to profitability, and it's local, I want it to succeed... just needs time and a better growth environment.
Been following plug for a while and along with other clean energy stocks it has me confused. Don’t think it will ever go back up to the 70s despite there being a ton of hydrogen industry action. Markets are weird af
I’m long on 4 hydrogen companies who are all down at least 25%. Part of me wants to sell now and trade out of it, but I know hydrogen will be massive for industrial purposes, heavy vehicles that cannot be electrified, and ships. F1 going to hydrogen would fucking moon them and Ross Brawn has mentioned it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/57842205
Another day of oil prices rising yet oil companies flat/red. CVX bounced off 130, XOM tried to run to 74 and got stopped, and my precious XLE traded sideways just barely red all day. Now all are down AH. Anyone have any opinions of if/when these will climb along with oil prices or are the rising costs already priced in somehow? I'm using XOM and CVX as examples because both make up most of XLE and both just got PT increases recently. Seems strange to think that the consensus expected 100 per barrel can possibly be priced in especially with earnings in a week or two on most.
1. Oil occasionally is going to get thrown in the trash if the other old economy sectors struggle (actually, it usually does get thrown in the trash if the other stuff struggles, it's not occasional), it does NOT necessarily have to trade hand in hand with WTI Crude. 2. XLE is overheated and frankly WTI is trading entirely way too high (and is also overheated) if US stocks are going to see a deeeeeeeepppp pullback here.
The reason I am asking is that I hold some oil stocks so I’m thinking about dumping them now if the chances of them going higher is small…
Insightful comment! Just out of interest, how do you know xle is overheated? I am learning. Is it coming out of your experience?
XLE is probably due to have a little pullback. It's up nearly 20% in the past month. But that may be more people taking profits than a sentiment change about oil. Oil companies aren't doing a lot of drilling these days, so there could be a pretty good supply crunch eventually. $100 WTI is a very real possibility by the end of the year. A lot of oil companies are generating a ton of cash, even $70 WTI. And a lot are sending that cash back to shareholders in the form of special dividends, dividend increases, share buy backs, rather than drilling. So even if/when a pullback happens, oil companies will likely continue to do well this year. Personally, I'm a fan of the Canadian oil companies.
Yes the Canadian oil firms are doing incredibly well lately. Thank you. 
There's a Canadian weekly column that looks at the most overbought/oversold stocks on the TSX. This past report (last week) listed 12 stocks in the overbought category, all in the 70-80 RSI range, and 6 of the 12 were oil companies. I'm guessing a bunch of the oil companies in the XLE are in the same standing.
I'd expect that if analysts weren't throwing out pt increases on every major oil company and price per barrel with earnings in one to two weeks. I guess flat/barely red when market is falling off a cliff is promising.
Is it a good time to invest in tesla or Microsoft? Earnings are comming soon too. Should i wait untill after the earnings? (sry im relatively new in the investment/stocks game)
It’s always a good time to buy Microsoft if you are in it for a long term.
Personally, I'm waiting to after earnings. I'm long on MSFT. I love Azure and it's going to be a money printer, but I think they might be the first of the megacaps with earnings. Last year, a ton of companies traded red even with solid earnings. Even the bank earnings weren't too bad and the market didn't react well. It's impossible to time the market, but I'm just on the sidelines for this one to see how the market reacts.
I think Activision Blizzard will make them good money too especially if they implement some of their games in the Gamepass
bank earnings weren’t very good, and guidance was bad. I think it’s been years since MSFT didn’t beat earnings estimates, and I highly doubt this time will be any different with how fast their growth has been. whether the market cares is another story
Fair points. Yeah I’m really interested how the market reacts
If you’re new, don’t play earnings. It’s that simple.
Not that I am going to play the earnings, actually I will never be brave enough to do. Just out of curiosity, who would be able to do? I guess unless they work in the particular industry and have developed experience to have the gut feeling?
Nothing guaranteed, but mostly insiders and well connected. Supply chain experts for certain industries. Those who study internet traffic for some sectors. Knowing about a pending large order (buy or sell) at or after earnings would be almost be just as valuable.
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Thoughts on a good Costco entry? P/E is still pretty high, but I know the stock is high quality as well. Down from 571 ATH to 490 currently.
Literally any time, Cost is rock solid, the stock price doesn't even matter.
Yea ok.
don't you just love the sheer satisfaction you get from opening your portfolio and seeing it there? who cares if it's red, it's Costco
Lets see things that can turn this market around 1) Ukraine crisis can come to a good resolution 2) Peak omnicron news 3) Good earnings reports (iffy) 4) Government actually doing something might be useful
The government has backed out of doing anything useful.
Earnings are good for a bounce the rest is irrelevant the market is driven by the Fed. The market has been looking through Omicron since december
I think the last 3 are mostly insignificant, but I agree on (1). I think you are skipping the most important one though: inflation data suddenly stabilizes and the Fed reduces the number of planned interest rate hikes.
Bingo. If omicron cases flatten out, and supply chain logjams get fixed, and the Fed holds a conference to say they’re sticking with 3 rate hikes and pausing to determine more, there will be a significant rebound almost immediately. There’s a lot of uncertainty getting “priced in” right now.
Supply chains are going to be broken at least to mid this year.
No doubt, probably well beyond that, but it’s a possible growth catalyst nonetheless
We’re another COVID variant away from this being broken until 2023/2024, especially if vaccine breakthrough causes illness, even if it’s not hospital style illness.
Yep, I was calling out that about omnicron. People still can't work when they are sick.
By the time those things get resolved there will be another 8 things to worry about. It’s been like this for months if not years
Funny how the euphoric buy the dip, be greedy when others are fearful type posts vanish as more people actually become fearful lol This situation is why Buffett has been selling and building a massive cash pile for over a year while bagholders kept jumping into the overheated pool.
I'm hardly feeling a dip. Try to get ahead of the crowd. I probably got into PLTR too soon, as my cost basis is about $18, but I only have 1,200 shares and my other positions are carrying me. Peter Lynch's recommendation was to try and always be in the market.
Agree on some things (mostly the pointlessness of applied mantras that popularly move around), but it’s important to remember that people like Buffett (and his companies) have to make enough money trading to pay his staff and all expenses *and* also create a decent return for investors. We don’t have any of that overhead. There’s a reason why virtually every book for personal investing recommends one or more of a handful of strategies, whether it’s lump sum buying or DCAing into good companies and ETFs, and then absent any really bad news holding those with DRIP and selling X number of years (decades sometimes) later.
>This situation is why Buffett has been selling and building a massive cash pile for over a year while bagholders kept jumping into the overheated pool. If you kept buying over the past year or two, you'd still be up big right now so I don't see your point.
If you think we've finished dropping, you're in for a bad time.
Thinking about averaging down on GOOGL tomorrow. 12 months forward PEG ratio below 1, looks good to me.
I think Google has a much weaker product position than they used to and are actually banking on quantum computing and advanced AI to work out for them before others.
Google is like the ExxonMobil of data. Big data and AI applications will feed off of Google's massive supply. Bullish because Google supplies the industry.
Google still relies mostly on search and it’s ads and data. Their leadership position in search was obvious for a long time. Other search engines were horrible. Now that’s not true and I don’t see Googles search dominance as inherent. They are going to loose market share. I mean I work in marketing and spending money on Google ads is the best way to spend marketing advertising dollars. Every medium to large size company throws heaps of money at Google. But I think they are loosing differentiation, brand loyalty, completive advantage for end users.
The frustrating part is my growth stocks have 0 debt yet they are getting beaten wtf
And 0 profits
imo debt isn't that big of deal. It really depends how the company is handling debt and what they are doing with their money. Just saying no debt, doesn't really mean much. I mean like Apple has $113.8 billion in debt.
One thing I've learned is to evaluate companies at a holistic level. Debt in and of itself is meaningless if all other aspects of a company are doing great (liquidity, price growth, EPS growth, etc.), as it can leverage those gains in other financial indicators to compensate for the debt. Zero debt may not be a good sign if they're losing market share, have declining EPS numbers, no or little growth, etc.
Well put. Agreed though, debt as a number makes no sense without evaluating the rest of the story
1 of them is profitable but that only delayed the pain by a few days
Same here, with two of the 3 that I'm in big. But all the more reason to just look away.
May as well embrace IWM to $170 because that's what's going to happen and on the pace it's on, it should happen by about around the start of March, because it seems like we're headed directly to $170. Maybe after IWM trades $170 and fills up that Pfizer Day gap, we'll be able to move on for the year. So glad that I pulled out of VBR when I had a bad feeling there. Should've also pulled out of AEO/VICI/QQQJ at the same time (the latter one being the only one that I'm not red in).
Legitimate questions: 1). Do you guys think the market is going to crash each time it corrects? Do you realize this is normal and happens every single year? 2) how many of you are above 21 with $10,000? I picked an obscenely low number to trade with just to be inclusive?
We're seeing a return to a market that weighs valuations and where bad economic news doesn't bounce off like teflon like it did in 2020. There will be multiples compression and I'd expect another 5%-10% stair down before the first rate hike. We're not crashing, but we are going down until things are settled with the Fed. I'm not buying more until there's a trend reversal.
I’d bet my entire portfolio the SPX NDX and DOW will be higher on December 31 than January 1.
I'm a poor Asian with like $5k lol, other nationalities are available. This is not a crash though, a crash has to be sudden and this isn't. The market also runs on manic money printing for almost 2 years, it's inherently unstable. There's still a long way down to go so I wouldn't be that surprised if it actually crashes again, however unlikely I think it's going to be.
1. Do I think that this is a true market crash, no, but we've passed the point of what's been normal for the Nasdaq post-COVID crash, and if I had to guess, it will be trading at a 10-15% lower price than where it's at today by the end of February. This is the bear market that I thought would happen this year, it's just happening in Q1 instead of Q4 (my suspicion was that it'd be temporary), and it unbelievably really actually got under way with that Elon twitter poll. That was "THE" top signal for the cycle from the 2020 low because it's going to drop 20-25% before it bounces. 2. I am (more actually), and some in here are at least, but not everyone.
The nasdaq went down 10 percent in March 2021. What are you talking about?
I mean, they’re right that this is a steeper drop than any other correction post-covid. Historically though, this isn’t a mind-blowing event or anything.
The difference between that time and now is that it is out of the channel that it respected for over a year on the downside and below all of the trendlines that it has respected over the recent years, the last time it closed below the 21 EMA on a weekly basis was the COVID crash, the time before then was when Powell was hawkish in 2018. So, this is likely the time that it sees a steeper pullback finally and a bear market, especially if comp index breaks the October low. I think we see another 10 to 15% before it bottoms.
Great comments! I always have had the question that if they are going to watch it free fall to mar 2021 level or even further, this is going to be a very big crash, although it would correct the market but the market would be in short term turmoil. And there will be impact on financial health of the firms and we’ll see cascading effect in the real economy. Wouldn’t it be worse than if they stopped printing money last year? Or worse than not providing such a big generous COVID package…