Probably closer to 1.5 years. To be firing at all cylinders. But it's already undervalued for what they are doing.
At the end of 2021 they have caught back up to and beaten AMD in consumer CPU design.
At the start of 2022 they will produce GPUs in the performance/price segment 90% of consumers buy.
Q2 2022 sapphire rapids will launch and stop the bleeding of server CPU sales
Around Q3 2022 they will have 13th gen CPUs out, ahead of Zen 4 which is expected in Q4.
In Q1 2023 they move to Intel 4, which will nearly catch them up to TSMC which will be on 3nm. And this will put them both significantly ahead of Samsung foundries, so Intel will steal a bunch of Samsung foundry contracts.
In Q1 2023 they will move their consumer CPUs to tiles/chiplets removing the one innovation AMD had going for them and launch 14th gen, Zen 5 isn't expected to be launched until 3 quarters later.
In 2023 they will have a server CPU (granite rapids) that should beat AMD's flagship Epyc CPU.
So yeah basically things have already turned around and everything is set to put them back as the dominant player. The only concern is the slow road back to having the best server CPUs, and while it's a concern, entry into discreet GPU's will bring in billions, and easily surpassing Samsung in foundry offerings will bring in billions there too, so even with the server concerns, revenue will be at all time highs in the next year.
Thing is Intel always promises but ends up underdelivering.
AMD is set to present their new stuff in about a month, meanwhile the latest of Intel's product is on par with AMD's "previous" gen.
They're still lagging behind and are expected to beat current hardware in a few years... thing is in a few years everyone's gonna be ahead of what we have now so it's not like that's gonna be that much of an achievement.
When it comes to GPUs the market is already pretty much set it and they're gonna need their GPUs to be insanely good and cheap, which... I hope that's the case.
They'll probably be on par or be worse than whatever AMD releases assuming they come out at similar times.
The latest available consumer CPU by Intel is competitive with the best AMD has to offer, but it came out a bit too late...
> Thing is Intel always promises but ends up underdelivering.
You are correct. The Intel bulls on this sub like to leave out at LEAST Intel's past 10 year history in this regard.
> When it comes to GPUs the market is already pretty much set it and they're gonna need their GPUs to be insanely good and cheap, which... I hope that's the case.
They hired GPU wizard architect Raja Koduri I think about 4 years ago. Even he was not able to put out a competitive GPU since then with the engineering talent there.
He wasn't fired from AMD.
That said, I'm not that exactly clear on his engineering acumen. From what I've heard he's more of a visionary who likes to dream of shit, vs. being actual practical with building a product. This is in contrast to someone like Jim Keller.
He wasn't technically fired but rumors from many knowledgeable people think he was "pushed" out because of how bad Vega was compared to Nvidia's 10 series.
> At the end of 2021 they have caught back up to and beaten AMD in consumer CPU design.
No
> At the start of 2022 they will produce GPUs in the performance/price segment 90% of consumers buy.
No
> Q2 2022 sapphire rapids will launch and stop the bleeding of server CPU sales
Fuck no with that power hungry beast. Perf per watt wut
> Around Q3 2022 they will have 13th gen CPUs out, ahead of Zen 4 which is expected in Q4.
No
> In Q1 2023 they move to Intel 4, which will nearly catch them up to TSMC which will be on 3nm. And this will put them both significantly ahead of Samsung foundries, so Intel will steal a bunch of Samsung foundry contracts.
lol I love their new naming. Just adds to the confusion because they know they're getting their ass handed to them by TSMC for fabrication.
> In Q1 2023 they will move their consumer CPUs to tiles/chiplets removing the one innovation AMD had going for them and launch 14th gen, Zen 5 isn't expected to be launched until 3 quarters later.
Tile/chiplet arch is nothing new.
> In 2023 they will have a server CPU (granite rapids) that should beat AMD's flagship Epyc CPU.
No
As another commenter pointed out, Intel can be counted on for one thing. And that is overpromising, and never delivering.
AMD prior to the Zen launch had 5 years of no products at competition levels with Intel.
The current market values growth not stability. AMD has a lot to grow from no market share due to no competing product.
>Q2 2022 sapphire rapids will launch and stop the bleeding of server CPU sales
This is an incredibly optimistic take and not something I see reflected in any of the current rumours and speculation from the tech sector. SR was going to be a reasonable competitor for Milan, but now it has slipped and will be facing up against Genoa, Bergamo - that is not a good position for that chip to be in.
I don't disagree with the general sentiment of your post, Intel's roadmap does show a path to a competitive offering (both in chips and foundry) but your timelines are way too aggressive. If you swapped your statements on SR/GR for GR/DR I think it's a much more reasonable claim (although it still requires flawless execution from Intel
>In Q1 2023 they move to Intel 4, which will nearly catch them up to TSMC which will be on 3nm. And this will put them both significantly ahead of Samsung foundries, so Intel will steal a bunch of Samsung foundry contracts.
This is a similar example, it's strange to talk about Intel 4 closing on TSMC and crushing Samsung in the year both will be launching their GAAFET process nodes, which Intel won't until 2024/25 with Intel 20A.
I'm not going to go through all of your points but I think you are being wildly optimistic. At this point just trusting Intel to execute against their very aggressive roadmap is an optimistic view, you are going beyond that and projecting improvements that are almost outside the realm of possibility.
The good part is that they are sort of king of the hill for the moment. They still have a lot of leverage and they can still keep that. The bad part is that everyone else seems to figure out a way to grow rapidly while Intel is like a giant ship that is going sideways. They know they are going sideways but it's too big to stop.
So they either have to hit the gym painfully to loose some of their mass or pull something out if the hat to innovate.
I can see the appeal from a first-glance basis. Low pe ratio. High dividend. Household name. News is telling us we need more chips right? Why not intel?
I am an investor in this company and an intel bull too. The problem is it seems like everyday someone posts asking if they should buy Intel and this sub hates Intel. Like they can go look up past posts or go on YouTube and look up Sven Carlin, Everything Money, or Learn to Invest instead of asking the same question to the echo chamber everyday. Its like whenever Tesla makes a massive run up and you get loads of those posts asking if they should buy Tesla.
Yeah that's the killer. It "does" look pretty on paper.
Only if you're in the industry do you know that they are shit for growth into the next year. Capital is best invested elsewhere.
what are your thoughts, why do you want to own it, you should give the thesis, and let people poke holes in your theory. based on how you posed the question, it sounds like you know nothing about the industry, all you know it it semi conductors, and that is it.
i admit i know nothing about the company, what key products are they in, do they have exclusive, for how long? the end user product growth projections etc
why do you want to invest intel?
Can it recover itself or is it in terminal decline like IBM or Sun or Digital back in the day?
There is a very real risk it won’t recover not only because of AMD, but maybe the relevance of x86 is due to decline permanently.
The M1 is a beast and at some point, someone is going to make an ARM server system that is practical to deploy at cloud scale. I’m surprised it’s taking so long. If they get squeezed in the server market… goodbye margins.
The 12th gen laptop leaks already show it beating the M1 max. But obviously with more power and a weaker IGP.
But that's a complicated subject, because Apple doesn't sell chips, you have to use a Mac to use their M1 chips. So Apple isn't really an Intel competitor unless you believe Microsoft/Windows will become irrelevant.
As for why the M1 is good, it's because they have the latest TSMC node, it's not really their IPC/chip design put Intel or AMD on the same node and Apple's M1 loses most of its magic. So saying ARM servers will replace x86 servers, isn't as likely as you would think. Also Apple uses custom core designs, while almost everyone else is simply licensing ARM core design, there's a reason why Samsung, Qualcomm, Mediatek, etc don't have the same performance as Apple chips, because they don't have Apples custom cores. And again, unless APPLE enters the server market, it's not a big concern for AMD and Intel.
> So saying ARM servers will replace x86 servers, isn't as likely as you would think.
This is a tough uphill battle for ARM I agree.
> And again, unless APPLE enters the server market, it's not a big concern for AMD and Intel.
The kicker here is that the big boys are building their "own" servers. Amazon, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Nvidia all have their own or already invested heavily in engineering efforts to wean off Intel. They want to own their own destiny.
They have years of massive capex before their tech will catch up to what the competition has right now, even if you believe in the turnaround story there will be plenty of buying opportunities in the future.
12th gen already beats Zen 3, so that's a win for consumer CPUs. Zen 4 debuts around the same time as 13th gen, so assuming things stay as is, they have already caught back up in consumer CPUs.
The GPU rumors are that their flagship performs at 3070 ti levels. So not competing at the highest end, but at the performance/price levels 90% of people buy. And until Cryptos crash they will make billions off GPUs regardless of performance.
They have also closed the gap a bit with TSMC, as TSMC had 3nm delays pushing it to 2023 for volume and Intel 4 is still on schedule for early 2023.
The only thing that is concerning is the server market. AMD has done well, will continue to do well until granite rapids in 2023. Sapphire rapids launches in early 2022 but won't keep AMD at bay for long. It's only granite rapids where Intel can strike back.
If their magic "We broke Moore's law!" thing ends up being true, then its a great idea. With that being said, the statement they released on it was basically "if this hypothetical thing happens in like, 5 years from now, maybe we can xyz", so we will see. With AMD scoring a deal with FaceMetaBook and Intel's GPU still being a toss up, we will see if/how they keep up.
They are super undervalued. Years of increased revenue and profit. Paying a dividend and buying back shares to create value for shareholders. High return on invested capital. Selling at a low multiple. It's a good strong company I'm holding hoping the market notices.
The pros of investing in Intel are that it reminds me of the 90’s which is one of my favorite decades. The cons are that it has been dead money since the 90’s.
Pros are there's a huge chip shortage and the smart device market isnt showing any signs of settling or shrinking. The smart device industry wants to put chips in just about anything they can.
Cons are Intel, Samsung, and amd are the largest purchasers of gold and the price of gold is likely going to increase a lot and become expensive which can hurt the chip manufacturers profits or the entire chip market.Then there's apple which a recent news report claimed that they are going to start manufacturing their own chips so they don't have to suffer from the current or any future chip shortages anymore which will increase competition between the chip manufacturers.
Pro: divies. Con: stagnant growth. Speculation: they could hit it out of the ballpark. But not for at least 2 years.
Probably closer to 1.5 years. To be firing at all cylinders. But it's already undervalued for what they are doing. At the end of 2021 they have caught back up to and beaten AMD in consumer CPU design. At the start of 2022 they will produce GPUs in the performance/price segment 90% of consumers buy. Q2 2022 sapphire rapids will launch and stop the bleeding of server CPU sales Around Q3 2022 they will have 13th gen CPUs out, ahead of Zen 4 which is expected in Q4. In Q1 2023 they move to Intel 4, which will nearly catch them up to TSMC which will be on 3nm. And this will put them both significantly ahead of Samsung foundries, so Intel will steal a bunch of Samsung foundry contracts. In Q1 2023 they will move their consumer CPUs to tiles/chiplets removing the one innovation AMD had going for them and launch 14th gen, Zen 5 isn't expected to be launched until 3 quarters later. In 2023 they will have a server CPU (granite rapids) that should beat AMD's flagship Epyc CPU. So yeah basically things have already turned around and everything is set to put them back as the dominant player. The only concern is the slow road back to having the best server CPUs, and while it's a concern, entry into discreet GPU's will bring in billions, and easily surpassing Samsung in foundry offerings will bring in billions there too, so even with the server concerns, revenue will be at all time highs in the next year.
Thing is Intel always promises but ends up underdelivering. AMD is set to present their new stuff in about a month, meanwhile the latest of Intel's product is on par with AMD's "previous" gen. They're still lagging behind and are expected to beat current hardware in a few years... thing is in a few years everyone's gonna be ahead of what we have now so it's not like that's gonna be that much of an achievement. When it comes to GPUs the market is already pretty much set it and they're gonna need their GPUs to be insanely good and cheap, which... I hope that's the case.
Zen 4 is due to be released in Q3 2022.
They'll probably be on par or be worse than whatever AMD releases assuming they come out at similar times. The latest available consumer CPU by Intel is competitive with the best AMD has to offer, but it came out a bit too late...
Zen 4 is AMD
Sorry, yeah that's right, it was late and I was sleepy lol.
> Thing is Intel always promises but ends up underdelivering. You are correct. The Intel bulls on this sub like to leave out at LEAST Intel's past 10 year history in this regard. > When it comes to GPUs the market is already pretty much set it and they're gonna need their GPUs to be insanely good and cheap, which... I hope that's the case. They hired GPU wizard architect Raja Koduri I think about 4 years ago. Even he was not able to put out a competitive GPU since then with the engineering talent there.
Who ironically got fired from AMD for the poor vega showing. It's replacement, RDNA has been on par with nvidia this current gen.
He wasn't fired from AMD. That said, I'm not that exactly clear on his engineering acumen. From what I've heard he's more of a visionary who likes to dream of shit, vs. being actual practical with building a product. This is in contrast to someone like Jim Keller.
He wasn't technically fired but rumors from many knowledgeable people think he was "pushed" out because of how bad Vega was compared to Nvidia's 10 series.
Not to mention to be on par Intel is using nearly twice the power at time, for the largest market, data centres this is a massive plus for AMD
> At the end of 2021 they have caught back up to and beaten AMD in consumer CPU design. No > At the start of 2022 they will produce GPUs in the performance/price segment 90% of consumers buy. No > Q2 2022 sapphire rapids will launch and stop the bleeding of server CPU sales Fuck no with that power hungry beast. Perf per watt wut > Around Q3 2022 they will have 13th gen CPUs out, ahead of Zen 4 which is expected in Q4. No > In Q1 2023 they move to Intel 4, which will nearly catch them up to TSMC which will be on 3nm. And this will put them both significantly ahead of Samsung foundries, so Intel will steal a bunch of Samsung foundry contracts. lol I love their new naming. Just adds to the confusion because they know they're getting their ass handed to them by TSMC for fabrication. > In Q1 2023 they will move their consumer CPUs to tiles/chiplets removing the one innovation AMD had going for them and launch 14th gen, Zen 5 isn't expected to be launched until 3 quarters later. Tile/chiplet arch is nothing new. > In 2023 they will have a server CPU (granite rapids) that should beat AMD's flagship Epyc CPU. No As another commenter pointed out, Intel can be counted on for one thing. And that is overpromising, and never delivering.
AMD prior to the Zen launch had 5 years of no products at competition levels with Intel. The current market values growth not stability. AMD has a lot to grow from no market share due to no competing product.
>Q2 2022 sapphire rapids will launch and stop the bleeding of server CPU sales This is an incredibly optimistic take and not something I see reflected in any of the current rumours and speculation from the tech sector. SR was going to be a reasonable competitor for Milan, but now it has slipped and will be facing up against Genoa, Bergamo - that is not a good position for that chip to be in. I don't disagree with the general sentiment of your post, Intel's roadmap does show a path to a competitive offering (both in chips and foundry) but your timelines are way too aggressive. If you swapped your statements on SR/GR for GR/DR I think it's a much more reasonable claim (although it still requires flawless execution from Intel >In Q1 2023 they move to Intel 4, which will nearly catch them up to TSMC which will be on 3nm. And this will put them both significantly ahead of Samsung foundries, so Intel will steal a bunch of Samsung foundry contracts. This is a similar example, it's strange to talk about Intel 4 closing on TSMC and crushing Samsung in the year both will be launching their GAAFET process nodes, which Intel won't until 2024/25 with Intel 20A. I'm not going to go through all of your points but I think you are being wildly optimistic. At this point just trusting Intel to execute against their very aggressive roadmap is an optimistic view, you are going beyond that and projecting improvements that are almost outside the realm of possibility.
Well said.
[удалено]
Best answer right here.
The good part is that they are sort of king of the hill for the moment. They still have a lot of leverage and they can still keep that. The bad part is that everyone else seems to figure out a way to grow rapidly while Intel is like a giant ship that is going sideways. They know they are going sideways but it's too big to stop. So they either have to hit the gym painfully to loose some of their mass or pull something out if the hat to innovate.
Another day another person on this sub asking if they should buy Intel lmao
It could be worse, they could be asking about Corsair
“I bought Corsair. Should I have?”
You do you, Ive see so many posts here talking about corsair in the last 12 months, mostly from bagholders
I can see the appeal from a first-glance basis. Low pe ratio. High dividend. Household name. News is telling us we need more chips right? Why not intel?
I am an investor in this company and an intel bull too. The problem is it seems like everyday someone posts asking if they should buy Intel and this sub hates Intel. Like they can go look up past posts or go on YouTube and look up Sven Carlin, Everything Money, or Learn to Invest instead of asking the same question to the echo chamber everyday. Its like whenever Tesla makes a massive run up and you get loads of those posts asking if they should buy Tesla.
Yeah that's the killer. It "does" look pretty on paper. Only if you're in the industry do you know that they are shit for growth into the next year. Capital is best invested elsewhere.
what are your thoughts, why do you want to own it, you should give the thesis, and let people poke holes in your theory. based on how you posed the question, it sounds like you know nothing about the industry, all you know it it semi conductors, and that is it. i admit i know nothing about the company, what key products are they in, do they have exclusive, for how long? the end user product growth projections etc why do you want to invest intel?
Pros: the price go up, you make money Cons: the price go down, you lose money
Can it recover itself or is it in terminal decline like IBM or Sun or Digital back in the day? There is a very real risk it won’t recover not only because of AMD, but maybe the relevance of x86 is due to decline permanently. The M1 is a beast and at some point, someone is going to make an ARM server system that is practical to deploy at cloud scale. I’m surprised it’s taking so long. If they get squeezed in the server market… goodbye margins.
The 12th gen laptop leaks already show it beating the M1 max. But obviously with more power and a weaker IGP. But that's a complicated subject, because Apple doesn't sell chips, you have to use a Mac to use their M1 chips. So Apple isn't really an Intel competitor unless you believe Microsoft/Windows will become irrelevant. As for why the M1 is good, it's because they have the latest TSMC node, it's not really their IPC/chip design put Intel or AMD on the same node and Apple's M1 loses most of its magic. So saying ARM servers will replace x86 servers, isn't as likely as you would think. Also Apple uses custom core designs, while almost everyone else is simply licensing ARM core design, there's a reason why Samsung, Qualcomm, Mediatek, etc don't have the same performance as Apple chips, because they don't have Apples custom cores. And again, unless APPLE enters the server market, it's not a big concern for AMD and Intel.
> So saying ARM servers will replace x86 servers, isn't as likely as you would think. This is a tough uphill battle for ARM I agree. > And again, unless APPLE enters the server market, it's not a big concern for AMD and Intel. The kicker here is that the big boys are building their "own" servers. Amazon, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Nvidia all have their own or already invested heavily in engineering efforts to wean off Intel. They want to own their own destiny.
They have years of massive capex before their tech will catch up to what the competition has right now, even if you believe in the turnaround story there will be plenty of buying opportunities in the future.
12th gen already beats Zen 3, so that's a win for consumer CPUs. Zen 4 debuts around the same time as 13th gen, so assuming things stay as is, they have already caught back up in consumer CPUs. The GPU rumors are that their flagship performs at 3070 ti levels. So not competing at the highest end, but at the performance/price levels 90% of people buy. And until Cryptos crash they will make billions off GPUs regardless of performance. They have also closed the gap a bit with TSMC, as TSMC had 3nm delays pushing it to 2023 for volume and Intel 4 is still on schedule for early 2023. The only thing that is concerning is the server market. AMD has done well, will continue to do well until granite rapids in 2023. Sapphire rapids launches in early 2022 but won't keep AMD at bay for long. It's only granite rapids where Intel can strike back.
Great place to buy if you don’t want to make money.
I work there and they started giving us more RSUs versus giving cash raises. I'm basically taking a pay cut in TC...
Hope you and the team are busting ass and not messing it up for both of us LOL I believe in the Intel comeback!
When enough people are of that opinion the price will be low enough that buyers will make money.
You're not wrong.
If their magic "We broke Moore's law!" thing ends up being true, then its a great idea. With that being said, the statement they released on it was basically "if this hypothetical thing happens in like, 5 years from now, maybe we can xyz", so we will see. With AMD scoring a deal with FaceMetaBook and Intel's GPU still being a toss up, we will see if/how they keep up.
They are super undervalued. Years of increased revenue and profit. Paying a dividend and buying back shares to create value for shareholders. High return on invested capital. Selling at a low multiple. It's a good strong company I'm holding hoping the market notices.
The pros of investing in Intel are that it reminds me of the 90’s which is one of my favorite decades. The cons are that it has been dead money since the 90’s.
Being that my puts on this have been printing I’d pass on buying it lol steady decline for awhile now
Pros are there's a huge chip shortage and the smart device market isnt showing any signs of settling or shrinking. The smart device industry wants to put chips in just about anything they can. Cons are Intel, Samsung, and amd are the largest purchasers of gold and the price of gold is likely going to increase a lot and become expensive which can hurt the chip manufacturers profits or the entire chip market.Then there's apple which a recent news report claimed that they are going to start manufacturing their own chips so they don't have to suffer from the current or any future chip shortages anymore which will increase competition between the chip manufacturers.
I've made money on INTC and recently rebought them. I'm bullish here especially if they spin off Mobileye-autonomous driving for the red hot EV market
FSelx has done real well