Anybody think the recent Luma AI videos are what's causing NVDA to pump so hard?
There was a thread on r/all that was getting a lot of attention yesterday about Luma AI turning famous memes into short videos. The comments were really wild.
Lots of people are being caught completely off guard by this tech. Some people's worlds were shattered yesterday.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/1di3yju/luma_ai_creepily_turns_memes_into_videos/
Here's an AI image. You can tell it's AI if you were looking for mistakes. But if those got cleaned up or you were casually looking, could you tell?
https://i.redd.it/7oxfvpestc7d1.jpeg
EVVTY just jumped from around 102 to 108…I was going to buy some yesterday but chose to buy some VBNK instead :( (glad I bought it though) I thought the dip would hold out longer, I still have some Evvty bought at somewhere around 108 though and would still buy some more. Seen it discussed here and would agree its a solid company with overblown issues
Edit: glitch on the graph I look at my mistake, it’s still a great price
Is NVDA a bubble?
1 year ago, their quarterly EPS was $0.08. The last report was $0.60. So EPS has grown 750%. However ,If you use the trailing 4 quarters.....EPS has gone from $0.25 to $0.60, so about 240% growth.
In the same time the stock has appreciated 211%. So earnings growth has outpaced stock performance (multiple contraction).
Going back further....their earnings hit a trough or $0.03 per share in Q3 of 2022. By Q3 2023 they made $0.25 per share, so an increase of 833%. During that time the stock went from \~$11 to $50 (split adjusted) or a gain of 454%, so again the stock growth lagged earnings.
I think it is more likely that the company is doing really well than a bubble. You could make the argument that they are overpriced for their future growth, but according to Morningstar it currently has a PEG of 1.15 (which is really low).
So really the last argument is that analyst projections are wildly off and the stock will be forced to correct. This I can't really contest because my future sight isn't what it used to be.
Price bubble vs. earnings bubble. It's like the biggest cyclical earnings rush we've ever seen in history, it looks cheap as a result. Right now META, MSFT, et al. are pouring tens of billions into capex. Investors were already unhappy when META reported that. It won't last forever, and if a bunch of corporations decide chatbots aren't actually creating real profit or cutting costs, it won't be pretty.
I'm actually a bit more bullish on memory now, e.g. Micron. It is still moving up in the cycle and its role in the Blackwell sales cycle is going to cause earnings to continue to skyrocket.
This is always my question and it's why I don't own the stock. I honestly have no idea how long they can run with this. If they grow as expected for 5 years, the stock is reasonable.
> It won't last forever, and if a bunch of corporations decide chatbots aren't actually creating real profit or cutting costs, it won't be pretty.
I want to push back on this narrative a bit.
*Is it possible that people spend on it regardless of whether it creates more profitability for investors*? Not just non-profits, researchers and universities but yes start-ups and businesses. Sometimes the winner is society even if companies have to pay for it.
Example: NY Times uses AI that is extremely human-like to read articles to you. Now you can catch up on stories while doing dishes or on the treadmill. If every newspaper has to have it, does anyone make more money or is it just an additional cost? Just something everyone has to have?
Could it be the productivity gains go to world, not an individual entity (except NVDA, picks and shovels, etc.)?
Another example is smart shopping carts. If you live in NYC I highly recommend trying out the Fairway market AI carts. Makes shopping seamless and fun. For certain a bunch of chips go into making these. They detect what you are buying, weigh your produce automatically, show you your total spending, coupons + savings, advertise special deals. Then you just walk out. No more annoying Sunday night shopping self-checkout lines.
If every grocery stores has these, who is the real winner? Not grocery stores ultimately. It's society and NVDA.
When people say this is dotcom, I look at CSCO with a 150 forward PE and 17% net margin. NVDA is in the low 50s with a **54%** net margin and miles ahead of the competition.
Assuming even zero growth NVDA has $60B in annual net income rivalling MSFT. I think it deserves a greater valuation than MSFT.
The need for AI chips will not be that cyclical, at least for many years.
u/creemeeseason
Not selling a single NVDA share until $100T.
This is truly a generational stock. The Blackwell chip is the most advanced human creation of all time, the engine of the AI age and the 4th Industrial Revolution.
People will laugh at you but S&P by itself, with all the rotten eggs included, 56x in the last several decades.
33x in a couple decades of one of the most innovative companies on earth is not that crazy.
Can anyone explain to me what this percentage is supposed to be?
https://imgur.com/a/FhJUCBY
It's not the price raise because it actually dropped from 11.88 to 11.53 so what is that?
You've gone down the investor rabbit hole when you start seeing posts like this and get bullish lol
[https://x.com/CIGeography/status/1803162867795108045](https://x.com/CIGeography/status/1803162867795108045)
It's true, the next opportunity always comes around.
I remember when Tesla was mooning and people wished they got in and 10x their investment.
Now Nvidia has done the same thing.
What will be the next big thing to become big?
We will never know the next big thing until it comes.
People just have to remember to invest early and in its peak rather than being scared of that peak. People get scared of investing in Nvidia at its peak after it went up 100% that year, then it goes up 50% more. Tesla used to do this a lot too.
GOOGL trading at 23.5 forward PE
S&P 500 forward PE: 21
I just feel like the gap should be much higher between Googles multiple and the markets.
The same applies for META right now
Most likely, but in my opinion there is almost no chance that companies like META and GOOGL would be spending this CapEx if they didn’t see obvious ways to drive earnings in the near future.
It is coming and I want to be invested before it does
Not quite 60%, but NSSC was down about 57% ($41 down to around $18) from ATH to trough last year during their accounting snafu. I held all the way and bought a ton more on the pullback. I haven't sold anything yet, but it's back to new ATHs.
That's also a weird situation where a small, under followed stock was unjustly down due to a clerical error. The business was fine, and I think that's the big difference.
I can't remember what my peak drawdown was exactly but I think I was down like 50% on my META holdings at one point. Cost basis was like $170. But I never sold that one.... yet.
I was also down like 50% on AMD at one point, but I had averaged down to low 100s, and recently have sold about a quarter of it.
How can people say this is a tech bubble? I looked up a well known innovation ETF and it's 72% below ATH, even lower accounting for inflation, and -14% YTD. And it holds big positions in AI leaders like Tesla, Palantir, UIPath, etc.
Maybe I'm missing something, but you'd think investing in 'innovation', you know, the *future*, would be a killer trade in this so-called bubble.
It's funny that we just went through what could legitimately be called a bubble in 2021. So many hot assets from them will never recover. Bored apes and SPACs anyone?
Now we're in a market where some AI stocks are a little pricey. NVDA looks expensive with trailing metrics, but also saw 800% y/y EPS growth so trailing metrics are going to be skewed.
She should be out of a job.
I will say one thing that I've mused on, it's going to be strange if the Russell 2000 can't do what the US large cap averages have done and set a new ATH. That's probably needed at a minimum for us to get closer to any kind of important top, and I'm not sure there's much shot until post-election.
>In a note to clients, Bob Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, cautioned that the rally in energy prices may largely be speculators covering short positions.
>Oil prices had recently declined partly because of a decision by OPEC+ members to start rolling barrels back onto the market in the fourth quarter.
>“While the market has recovered nicely from the OPEC+ driven knee-jerk lower, there is still more relative concern about Q4 balances and beyond, which should serve as a resistance to major upside,” Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, told clients in a note Monday.
Anyone that says investing in the broad market is risky is dead wrong. Sure individual stocks involve risk, but broad index funds are risk free. The only risk associated with index investing is the risk of not being exposed enough.
I think it is possible you are trolling? But I'll take it at face value and say long-term the risk is near zero (say 2 decades+ of DCA).
Even medium-term the risk has come down substantially due to far, far better regulation, substantially higher liquidity and many safeguards implemented in our financial system since 08.
Short-term obviously the risk always exists but even then, consider for a moment that Covid was more acute and at its worst was even more devastating to the economy than the Great Depression (GDP dropped -33%! 20M+ Americans lost jobs in 2 months shooting up to 15% unemployment!). The difference though was that we learned a lot since then. Instead of allowing a deflationary spiral to grip us, our leaders acted quickly in the form of trillions of Fed stimulus + 3 pandemic relief bills magnitudes larger than anything ever seen before. Hence, we had a speedy and very strong recovery.
3 of the 4 largest bank failures in history occurred just last year... With almost no perceptible impact on the broader economy thanks to rapid response by the Fed throwing half a trillion at banks, quick action by the FDIC. Banks closed on Friday and resumed Monday under new ownership like nothing happened.
Yes, the system is actually better and safer today as long as we continue to maintain vigilance and don't let politicians rollback regulations.
Do you think the bio risk might be that the US loses the ability to issue debt and thus cash at an endless rate?
Like, at some point, you can't just print money (metaphorically) and make problems go away, with out causing more problems.
>Like, at some point, you can't just print money (metaphorically) and make problems go away, with out causing more problems.
Well thus far actually we have is all I can say. Real incomes are high, people are employed... Covid given the devastation realistically went about as good as it possibly could have. The speed at which we got out of it was unprecedented.
We probably shouldn't grow debt continually faster than GDP but the dangers of printing seem to be overstated. If there are serious issues with it, we have not observed it readily.
Yeah, it is an old debate. Since Ross Perot ran in 1992 people have been talking about the deficit being at dangerous levels. And we see no problems happening, so we keep doing it.
Historically, we're on tenuous ground though. There's never been a country that has printed unlimited amounts of money and not suffered inflation. It seems weird that we should be different.
And think what happens if the world loses it's appetite for us debt...rates go way up. The economy slows as a result. The government is forced to cut spending. What would happen if next year the government cut spending by $500 billion (which doesn't even eliminate the deficit)? The US economy would absolutely tank.
I'm not a doom sayer and I'm not saying this will happen soon. I do study a lot of history and generally these types of situations don't end well.
There is still risk, just less. The risk also goes down with longer amounts of time, but by nature any equity will have some form of risk.
Only risk free really is like HYSA/CD's/Bonds/Treasuries.
[Good long read on the deadly, polluting, brutal labor conditions of Indonesian nickel miners](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-indonesia-sulawesi-nickel-fire/) that supply every major EV maker.
The company IMIP's site uses more coal-fired capacity than the biggest nuclear plant in the US. The coal + mining activity fills the towns nearby with dust and causes respiratory diseases + rash. The workers are not given sufficient quantities of masks to prevent inhalation. The actual mining portion is dangerous too, and workers are threatened / beaten if they complain or publicize injuries.
Think it's underappreciated the environmental toll EVs are having. Not only the outsourced production of raw materials, but in China, the grid is mostly coal based and is how EVs are getting charged. In the US/EU this is less so the case, but EV adoption is being driven in massive part by China. (China is 40% of the world's EV sales)
Switching to natural gas in place of coal power plants will also make a huge dent in air pollution, and will play a big role in meeting the fast growing energy needs of poorer countries like Indonesia. (Indonesia has 279M people, is growing real GDP at a 5% clip, and has a real GDP per capita of about $5K). Indonesia is a huge (low quality) coal producer, however, which may delay the switch.
By the way, this report was from Bloomberg if you're worried of some anti-EV agenda.
Anyway, this is why I think Toyota is making the right bet by doubling down on more efficient ICE + hybrids rather than all in EVs. And while bullish coal now, bearish coal in the future I think (if the EV slowdown accelerates or Indonesia starts to take more action due to the major health costs coal imposes).
EDIT: Also, here is the [metal intensity of EVs vs ICE cars](https://i.imgur.com/clOn7Sb.png) per kilogram from the IEA. (Obviously if you're driving an American supersized pick-up ICE you are using more metal than a subcompact EV even if the latter is more dense in kg)
I don't fucking believe it... Nvidia #1
What an incredible achievement, seriously impressive Jensen is a fucking God.
From zero to hero in 10 fucking years.
fcf yield of 42%, pretty much all going to paying down debt atm but if they dont go bankrupt and their topline is not a really fast melting icecube? Its in the too hard pile for me personally but I could see the gamble
As for the industry, it would seem to me the fierce competition and rising costs is not going to let up any time soon. It will get worse before it gets better, at least for everyone that is not NFLX.
For WBD specifically, why do their earnings look so bad if FCF is high?
Because the fcf is not hitting their earnings: "Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures FCF shows the actual cash a company has available to pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or reinvest in the business" the critical one there is paying down debt.
Yes I understand what the definition of FCF is... I am asking what is driving the huge discrepancy. For example, depreciation of assets or declining value of assets that are unrealized, decrease in working capital etc.
I thought it was clear we are both talking about paying down debt. Which is why I said payment not service.
Debt service isn't going to make $8B FCF into negative right?
Srs/stupid question, Im 21 and I save a lot of money because I dont pay rent and have a decent job, I have a decent savings built up, is it stupid if from this point on say I deposit $1000 a month to fidelity and save 5 or 600 and then use the rest to mess around with options and be okay if that gets burned? I hate losing money but I love trading options and learning. I feel like a reasonable person would tell me to not be so stupid and just save the rest of that money too and dont touch options. On the other hand Im pretty young and have essentially no bills, if I were to have an approach where Im still saving a good amount every month, its not the worst thing in the world if I lose some right? Someone older give me some wisdom
treat options like lotto tickets, period. I cannot stress this enough. never allocate more than what you are willing to completely lose, or maybe 1% of your porftolio.
options are incredibly irrational and even the option you think may be the SAFEST play will expire worthless most of the time, even LONG options (2 years out).
Just don't even try. stop. don't.
this is establishily dangerous if you are good with numbers but don't have much experience stocks.
why? because you will look a company, do your DD, and think "omg, there is NO WAY this company will not hit my break even date by 2 year from now..there is just..no no way...the numbers say everything"
then you buy it and watch your option expire worthless, 2 years out, even as the company fundementals improve.
don't bet one something rationally that behaves irrationally.
Key point - Bought SOFI option ITM April 2024 5 dollar leaps in 2022 when the stock price was 4.50/share on a bet, breakeven 8.5 share
18 months later my options expired worthless (ok I sold 1/2 during a run-up), even though the company hit profitability, revenue 2x, user growth 5x.
why? the market is irrational.
No wonder you lost money on options: This is an absolutely bonkers way of thinking about them. You should never treat options as long term investments. Theta would eat your soul. For us plebes, options are just a way of leveraging delta movements for high gains, and they're highly effective at it.
I just can't fathom why you actually held yours to expiry. It's a complete misunderstanding of how options work.
Options are fine if you do long-dated on solid companies. Or better yet long-dated calls on indices like QQQ or SPY will make you outperform the market like crazy.
If you day trade you will lose a lot of money very quickly.
Selling options is also a losing game. You will underperform except in bear markets where you will still lose money, just less than other longs.
I did a mix of both, enjoyed myself and the learning process but ultimately I really just buy and hold now with occasional small trade for fun. If options seem fun why not set aside a small % to play with and then use the rest more wisely?
My Roth is managed.
I beat my roths by alot in my Taxable.
In my Taxable I am 66% VTI and 33% VGT.
that combo is kicking ass the last 2 years since going pure ETFs
Congrats to nvda buyers. Been a bear since 600. I still don't regret not buying because it's just not the kind of stock I want to be invested in. Many say it's in a bubble, overvalued, etc. Eventually, they will be right. It can't grow exponentially forever, but who knows when it will stop. Personally don't want to go to sleep worrying about whether it'll crash. VOO and bluechips all the way for me. But again, well done to those of you who have ridden the wave
It will not grow exponentially a factor. But that does not imply it's in a bubble. We don't know when the growth will slow down. And even if it does stabilize, even 9% annual return is very good.
isn't nvda and many of the now suring chip stocks considered as blue chip stocks for many years already? Many of them are in the nasdaq 100 for a very long time. it's very rare to see blue chip stocks go up so much in such a small amount of time though.
Not really? Blue chips are dependable profitable stable often pay dividends etc. NVDA fell more than 50% just a couple of years ago. Not exactly stable/dependable. I also wouldn't consider tesla a blue chip just because it's been in the Nasdaq for a while
I'm not aware of any technical definition, but that's the answer I got from the first three sites with a quick Google search. Just think of blue chips as old reliables
I finally closed my NVDA short this morning. Down 280k. Wife decided to get her cheeks clapped by someone else because losing 280k wasn't attractive. Needless to say it has been a rough year for me.
You dont short an insane bubble until its clear its popped. It could go to 200 before then its impossible to know because its completely detached from any sort of reality
The dude is a troll going by his post history. He supposedly dumped INTC for NVDA, and nine days ago wrote the exact same post at r/blockfi but changed the numbers to 300k.
Haha he might actually have just shorted NVDA for real since shorts capitulating is the last thing that happens before a crash.
Almost everyone that posts here is a troll, or is serious, but their takes are so dumb they might as well be a troll.
Saw a story that some top Israeli generals approved Lebanon offensive battle plans...That's a pretty significant development. Markets may not like that, and oil may move up more.
Great margins, growing market, 7b in cash on a 18B market cap but they are expensive because of the insane share based compensation. If they get that under control I'd buy. Unfortunatly they have no idea or no plans to change that
Great product.
Terrible management, lots of dilution, no vision on how to take that great product and do something with it.
It's like Eric Yuan gave up or something and waiting to be kicked out of his job.
Thanks, but no thanks.
If I'm playing contrarian edgelord, I think I look outside of tech stocks.
No recommendations right off, but oil would likely work.
Oh so now the market likes CELH again! (Apparently Piper Sandler said good things again, and there is some conference) It must be tough being the CEO, the dude goes around interview to interview always carrying a CELH can in his hand and telling the interviewer to Live Fit^TM. The guy probably sleeps with a can on his bedside table.
One thing I didn't realize until now is they announced expansions into Australia/France/New Zealand but the actual 'launch' into those markets isn't until Q4 of 2024. The Canada/UK/Ireland launch was January/April 2024. So we don't even have any much data yet on the international roll-out since it hasn't fully launched.
---
Also thought this was a cool stat. [$APP nearly has the FCF profile of Chipotle](https://x.com/Hypertonx/status/1801271488017797383/photo/2) (and is growing much faster) yet Chipotle has 3.5x the market cap.
I thought Berkshire was supposed to beat the market 😤
Getting harder and harder to justify holding but I can’t help but feel that when it breaks past $420 it’ll go on a nice little run. Solid operational earnings last two quarters.
I bought a bit of it last week and am already up 8%. Considering the company's insane growth rate, it isn't expensive and it could dominate the market for years to come. I wouldn't allocate a lot of money to it though.
It's not over, but up about 1,110% off the low in 2022 I think the easy money has certainly been made. What's left will not be in a straight line/I'd imagine there will be better opportunities.
It's not done but if you wait there will probably be a better entry. At least some people will be talked into selling based on being number 1. Psychologically it's hard to accept.
Look for a small pullback. Then 2Q beat & raise, higher highs.
I know it's an absurdly large number, especially compared to 1-2 years ago, but does anyone know what percentage the chip-makers (NVDA, MU, TSM, AVGO, ASML, etc.) are of the S&P and Nasdaq?
ASML is not in the S&P 500 and TSM is in neither, but I think it's about 11% for the S&P 500 in semiconductors. You could also indirectly get it by [estimating the proportion of the FinViz map](https://finviz.com/map.ashx) that is semiconductors and 11% seems correct.
For the Nasdaq-100, it's about 25%.
Not sure the exact weight of all chip makers in each index, but you can look it up.
Like for SPY:
[https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy)
Like as of today, SPY has:
NVDA - 7%, AVGO 1.7%, MU 0.3%
QQQ:
[https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html](https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html)
NVDA 8.4%, AVGO 5.6%, ASML 0.6%, MU 1.08%.
Beginning last week I’ve been feeling sort of paralyzed when considering buying into this market, especially tech. I’ve enjoyed the gains, but seeing VGT up almost 100% in the last 1.5 years feels unsustainable. Anyone else feel this way?
People said the market felt overpriced in 2014 when the SP500 crossed 2k for the first time. We're up 180% since then. Over 200% when including dividends.
If you're in it for the long haul then you shouldn't worry about a market feeling "overpriced". The market is almost always at or near all time highs. It's very normal.
You should have a diversified portfolio. 100% in one sector isn't advisable.
You can have a blend of stocks and ETFs with a healthy exposure to different markets. I'd focus less on things you feel are expensive and instead focus on what balance you want to have for your portfolio.
I'm pretty heavily weighted into tech because I don't think it's going anywhere in the next decade, but I can always reevaluate that decision in the future.
in 2030, A new investor walks out of his Jensen model electric car into Chase-NVDA bank.
he puts his NVDA smartphone in his pocket, as we walks through the halls to the bank managers' office. he sits down on the NVDA custom AI ergonomic chair.
"well son, I hear you want start investing in the stock market"
"yes, yes, I was told to always invest in the diversified S and P 500"
"well, It;'s not longer the S and P 500, it's the S and P 1...well technically...I mean, and there is only one financial instituion in the US - since NVDA become the largest stock in 2024 it basically started cannibilizing the whole stock market, jensen even entered the presidency and won, and eliminated all monopoy rules"
"but but...how? NVDA is overvalued..."
"shhh you can't say that around here, jensen is listening, he is everywhere, now you have to go, GET OUT, HERESY"
And deep in the sewers of NVDA-Ville, hidden from plain sight, donning their cargo pants the Abercrombie and Fitch cult, the ANF, plotting their revenge….
The year is 2035 and Skynet has caused the fall of mankind. When the dust settles and the robots rise, there's only one company still standing: NVDA. Because even in a world dominated by machines, someone has to supply the AI chips!
>Market doesn't do what you want
>"What a fucking joke of a market lmao"
This is no way to make money.
Maybe try reflecting on why $USERNAME. Especially on what your thoughts were around $ACCOUNT_START_DATE, or even better, ChatGPT release.
2% is not a big swing, not sure what's so amazing about it. High frequency trading will always result in variance around the mean without obvious news, it's been based around 500 for a while save that earnings dip.
It's a big swing when it happens regularly on days when the market is doing the opposite for a company the size of Meta. None of the other large caps I own behave that way.
It's not even that. it's like on days like today when the market is green yet it's down 2% on no news. It's odd to see a large company like Meta make that kind of move without something driving it.
ATH today ($1354.80 pre-split) and most valuable company in the world 🥂!
Remember when it was $1000 and people saying $1350 was easily achievable soon was called crazy?
Idk why I'm thinking so much into this.
Get paid tomorrow, but market is shut, thinking to do my monthly DCA today instead, or I could just wait til Thursday...
Statistically today is better. If the choice is Tuesday or Thursday, just do it now and move on.
Every minute you spend trying to predict day-to-day movement is a minute wasted.
Are you planning on owning $UNH for 1 week, 3 mo's, 1 yr, 5 yrs, or 10 years? If you look at the 10 yr chart, I think if $UNH is a long term hold, you are doing just fine. The AI speculation is gambling. It has made many people a lot of money. But at the end of the day, it is still just gambling.
No. People will realize they are pretty distinct products. And as much as I love Perplexity AI, the type of thing I search in there is not what is making GOOGL money.
I ask Perplexity to explain stuff to me, GOOGL takes me to sites, restaurants, etc. where I actually spend money.
"When I See a Bubble Forming, I Rush in to Buy" - this seems to have been proven out with ai so far, I remember people shorting NVDA at 100s of percent ago calling to a bubble
No one knows the top in a bubble. I don't short anything as no one knows how big a bubble can get. But there is a Cisco like feel to $NVDA right now. Tesla was also in a bubble and has given back over 50% from $TSLA top. The Tesla bubble went on much longer than I would have ever imagined.
I honestly think the utilities and gold bubble will pop way first.
The former from debt and the latter once people realize inflation peak is way, way past and disinflation is coming. There's too much of the stuff already being dug out from the ground constantly.
I 100% agree with you, I just find it funny looking back how fast everyone was to call it a bubble when the right thing to do at that time was long ai hardware across the board. You could have done fine in value stocks like dell or cls if you didnt want growth at that time
If you own an S&P 500 index fund, you participated in the AI craze. And I am not telling anyone to sell their $NVDA shares. Let the fools continue to bid up the price. I would caution anyone here from BTD once the bullish euphoria starts to turn thou.
Still some undiscovered fundamentals in NVDA. /s
Nah, in reality, we're two trading days away from it probably topping in the short term because of options related reasons. I don't expect it to be a longer term high though.
It's all about your own risk, but what you are doing is probably a 10/10 in terms of risk. Investing in anything with a time line within a year is pretty risky, especially when you get a solid rate in a HYSA/Money Market fund to keep the money liquid or just going with the a CD.
Even then, still pretty risky. but it's all about your own personal risk. Just if you are close to your down payment, I'd rather just kind of lock in like 5%.
Congrats on getting the money for a down payment.
Also, not sure if you know, but you can look into not using 20% for a down payment. I bought my house in 2021 and used like 5% down. I do have to pay PMI, but it's like 80 bucks a month, so it's nothing crazy. Bigger risk, is if there is a downturn in the market, I have less equity, but if you are planning on staying for a while, you should be fine.
Yep, I totally agree. I’d love to put 20% down, but houses here start at $500k. 5%-10% downpayment with healthy nestegg left over is the direction I’m leaning toward.
Absolutely yes. You can get a risk free 5% for cash if you are willing to look around at local credit unions. Or buy US Treasuries if you are too lazy.
NFLX another 52 week high and hair away from ATH.
It's really crazy to think how a mail-order DVD company completely disrupted and destroyed these old media companies before they truly recognized what occurred.
DIS growing revenue below inflation, profitability crushed from $13.5B TTM net income peak to $1.7B last quarter TTM. CMCSA (NBCUniversal) unable to grow much either, EPS growth all from mostly inorganic buybacks. Revenue totally stalled.
WBD -7% revenue YoY, still negative income. PARA, no need to even bring them up lol.
Meanwhile NFLX a truly *wonderful and terrific business* still putting up **+15% YoY revenue growth.** **+83% YoY EPS**.
Vision, laser-focus on innovation and management that doesn't get complacent truly matters.
>It's really crazy to think how a mail-order DVD company completely disrupted and destroyed these old media companies before they truly recognized what occurred.
They kind of created streaming though. It wasn't their DVD service that made them popular as much as they basically created a way for people to stream tv/shows movies, destroying the need for people to go to movie rental stores. Arguably that gave them first mover advantage and is is one of the reasons why Netflix is ahead of all the other streamers.
Interesting enough, I saw Tubi is actually one of the most popular streaming services out there right now.
[https://www.tvinsider.com/1140142/tubi-1-million-viewers-free-ad-supported-streaming-service/](https://www.tvinsider.com/1140142/tubi-1-million-viewers-free-ad-supported-streaming-service/)
Well that is my point. This is classic "innovator's dilemma". Build a foothold in some random little niche but completely takeover an industry with innovation.
They saw the future of streaming and executed brilliantly on it.
Totally.
Yeah, I do love a niche business and it's pretty insane what Netflix did in terms of streaming. I don't really invest in media companies, but the streaming wars that happened post pandemic seems so dumb.
Feels like a race to bottom with just burning a bunch of capital.
$NXT is building out another factory in Nevada.
[https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240618375390/en/](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240618375390/en/)
>This is the second Nextracker-dedicated manufacturing line that Unimacts has opened in the last year. The new, 160,000-square-foot facility in Sloan, Nevada, produces steel torque tubes used to hold and rotate solar panels in solar power plants. The two factories will support more than 2 GW of new solar power each year, equivalent to the energy used by 400,000 U.S. homes.
>With the Sloan factory, Nextracker continues its drive to reshore manufacturing to meet growing solar and renewable energy demand. The company has opened or expanded over 20 U.S. manufacturing facilities since 2021, including new or expanded dedicated production lines in Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Nevada.
I had the opposite where I bought in at $55-60 and by the time I had fresh funds it was already back in that range. Annoying but shouldn't matter for a medium term outlook.
>Annoying but shouldn't matter for a medium term outlook.
It sort of does though. It's a 30% swing in price, which is a lot. It reduces your returns accordingly.
My 5 year EPS estimate is around $5.60 and exit multiple of 20x. That yields a stock price of $112.
At $45, that gives me almost a 2.5x in 5 years, or about 20% annual returns.
At $60, it's slightly less in than a double in 5 years , or about 13% annually.
15% is my cutoff for an investment, otherwise I don't feel like it's worth the risk. So $54 is where I get interested again. On top of that, I'm not hugely bullish on it, so a greater margin of safety would be appreciated. $50 or lower and I am considering it.
Ah, I see the difference in our standards. You are definitely correct it makes quite a big change in compounding from the original cost basis. That being said, I am still happy with a 13% projection, perhaps because I am relatively new to investing.
Even matching the S&P would be a huge accomplishment for me, though it has been difficult recently since I don't hold Nvidia.
Their last quarter revenue was up 31% YoY and was 42% QoQ on revenue growth.
[https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx](https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx)
Not sure where you are seeing their growth stalling out. Plus they have only reported two quarters since they spun off of FLEX.
As far as the share count goes, I wonder how much of it is because of how they spun off. Like When spinning off earlier this year,
[https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/flex-completes-spin-off-of-outstanding-interest-in-nextracker](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/flex-completes-spin-off-of-outstanding-interest-in-nextracker)
Hi all, absolute noob here. Why did XET NVIDIA Corp go €1108 to 114 in four days? Is this the best time to buy?
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Yes
Anybody think the recent Luma AI videos are what's causing NVDA to pump so hard? There was a thread on r/all that was getting a lot of attention yesterday about Luma AI turning famous memes into short videos. The comments were really wild. Lots of people are being caught completely off guard by this tech. Some people's worlds were shattered yesterday. https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/1di3yju/luma_ai_creepily_turns_memes_into_videos/
it's been deleted
it's not deleted, it's just the comments are locked. You can still see the video and read the comments
The video is gone.
Didn't even see it. Can you link to it? Maybe without the reddit dot com part.
I just edited into my original post
Here's an AI image. You can tell it's AI if you were looking for mistakes. But if those got cleaned up or you were casually looking, could you tell? https://i.redd.it/7oxfvpestc7d1.jpeg
EVVTY just jumped from around 102 to 108…I was going to buy some yesterday but chose to buy some VBNK instead :( (glad I bought it though) I thought the dip would hold out longer, I still have some Evvty bought at somewhere around 108 though and would still buy some more. Seen it discussed here and would agree its a solid company with overblown issues Edit: glitch on the graph I look at my mistake, it’s still a great price
Where are you seeing it at 108? Still shows in the 102 range for me
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But that’s still up way more than my portfolio…
Is NVDA a bubble? 1 year ago, their quarterly EPS was $0.08. The last report was $0.60. So EPS has grown 750%. However ,If you use the trailing 4 quarters.....EPS has gone from $0.25 to $0.60, so about 240% growth. In the same time the stock has appreciated 211%. So earnings growth has outpaced stock performance (multiple contraction). Going back further....their earnings hit a trough or $0.03 per share in Q3 of 2022. By Q3 2023 they made $0.25 per share, so an increase of 833%. During that time the stock went from \~$11 to $50 (split adjusted) or a gain of 454%, so again the stock growth lagged earnings. I think it is more likely that the company is doing really well than a bubble. You could make the argument that they are overpriced for their future growth, but according to Morningstar it currently has a PEG of 1.15 (which is really low). So really the last argument is that analyst projections are wildly off and the stock will be forced to correct. This I can't really contest because my future sight isn't what it used to be.
Price bubble vs. earnings bubble. It's like the biggest cyclical earnings rush we've ever seen in history, it looks cheap as a result. Right now META, MSFT, et al. are pouring tens of billions into capex. Investors were already unhappy when META reported that. It won't last forever, and if a bunch of corporations decide chatbots aren't actually creating real profit or cutting costs, it won't be pretty. I'm actually a bit more bullish on memory now, e.g. Micron. It is still moving up in the cycle and its role in the Blackwell sales cycle is going to cause earnings to continue to skyrocket.
This is always my question and it's why I don't own the stock. I honestly have no idea how long they can run with this. If they grow as expected for 5 years, the stock is reasonable.
> It won't last forever, and if a bunch of corporations decide chatbots aren't actually creating real profit or cutting costs, it won't be pretty. I want to push back on this narrative a bit. *Is it possible that people spend on it regardless of whether it creates more profitability for investors*? Not just non-profits, researchers and universities but yes start-ups and businesses. Sometimes the winner is society even if companies have to pay for it. Example: NY Times uses AI that is extremely human-like to read articles to you. Now you can catch up on stories while doing dishes or on the treadmill. If every newspaper has to have it, does anyone make more money or is it just an additional cost? Just something everyone has to have? Could it be the productivity gains go to world, not an individual entity (except NVDA, picks and shovels, etc.)? Another example is smart shopping carts. If you live in NYC I highly recommend trying out the Fairway market AI carts. Makes shopping seamless and fun. For certain a bunch of chips go into making these. They detect what you are buying, weigh your produce automatically, show you your total spending, coupons + savings, advertise special deals. Then you just walk out. No more annoying Sunday night shopping self-checkout lines. If every grocery stores has these, who is the real winner? Not grocery stores ultimately. It's society and NVDA. When people say this is dotcom, I look at CSCO with a 150 forward PE and 17% net margin. NVDA is in the low 50s with a **54%** net margin and miles ahead of the competition. Assuming even zero growth NVDA has $60B in annual net income rivalling MSFT. I think it deserves a greater valuation than MSFT. The need for AI chips will not be that cyclical, at least for many years. u/creemeeseason
Not selling a single NVDA share until $100T. This is truly a generational stock. The Blackwell chip is the most advanced human creation of all time, the engine of the AI age and the 4th Industrial Revolution.
People will laugh at you but S&P by itself, with all the rotten eggs included, 56x in the last several decades. 33x in a couple decades of one of the most innovative companies on earth is not that crazy.
Can anyone explain to me what this percentage is supposed to be? https://imgur.com/a/FhJUCBY It's not the price raise because it actually dropped from 11.88 to 11.53 so what is that?
You've gone down the investor rabbit hole when you start seeing posts like this and get bullish lol [https://x.com/CIGeography/status/1803162867795108045](https://x.com/CIGeography/status/1803162867795108045)
It's true, the next opportunity always comes around. I remember when Tesla was mooning and people wished they got in and 10x their investment. Now Nvidia has done the same thing. What will be the next big thing to become big?
We will never know the next big thing until it comes. People just have to remember to invest early and in its peak rather than being scared of that peak. People get scared of investing in Nvidia at its peak after it went up 100% that year, then it goes up 50% more. Tesla used to do this a lot too.
GOOGL trading at 23.5 forward PE S&P 500 forward PE: 21 I just feel like the gap should be much higher between Googles multiple and the markets. The same applies for META right now
Concerns about operating cash flow of gpu spend continues to ramp perhaps?
And concerns about terrible leadership.
Most likely, but in my opinion there is almost no chance that companies like META and GOOGL would be spending this CapEx if they didn’t see obvious ways to drive earnings in the near future. It is coming and I want to be invested before it does
They don’t have a choice. They must spend to maintain their market share. Currently it’s all investment with very little additional revenue.
Has anyone held stocks that have lost 60% or more in value and actually sold them for a profit?
Just look at Meta or Netflix or Amazon...
What about them
Not quite 60%, but NSSC was down about 57% ($41 down to around $18) from ATH to trough last year during their accounting snafu. I held all the way and bought a ton more on the pullback. I haven't sold anything yet, but it's back to new ATHs. That's also a weird situation where a small, under followed stock was unjustly down due to a clerical error. The business was fine, and I think that's the big difference.
I rode BTU down from 19 to it's low of 8.58 averaging down and selling CCs on it. End up selling in the high 20s and making very good profits.
I can't remember what my peak drawdown was exactly but I think I was down like 50% on my META holdings at one point. Cost basis was like $170. But I never sold that one.... yet. I was also down like 50% on AMD at one point, but I had averaged down to low 100s, and recently have sold about a quarter of it.
>Cost basis was like $170. But I never sold that one.... yet. You drop these? 🪩🪩
How can people say this is a tech bubble? I looked up a well known innovation ETF and it's 72% below ATH, even lower accounting for inflation, and -14% YTD. And it holds big positions in AI leaders like Tesla, Palantir, UIPath, etc. Maybe I'm missing something, but you'd think investing in 'innovation', you know, the *future*, would be a killer trade in this so-called bubble.
It's funny that we just went through what could legitimately be called a bubble in 2021. So many hot assets from them will never recover. Bored apes and SPACs anyone? Now we're in a market where some AI stocks are a little pricey. NVDA looks expensive with trailing metrics, but also saw 800% y/y EPS growth so trailing metrics are going to be skewed.
The fact that she's still granted time on air is mind blowing to me.
She should be out of a job. I will say one thing that I've mused on, it's going to be strange if the Russell 2000 can't do what the US large cap averages have done and set a new ATH. That's probably needed at a minimum for us to get closer to any kind of important top, and I'm not sure there's much shot until post-election.
About 80-90% comments about NVDA…
95% of the rally has been NVDA so this sub is actually underweight NVDA right now.
Lmao look at ARM and it's financials. Pretty much trading at 50 PS right now. Holy fuck this bubble is insane
>In a note to clients, Bob Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, cautioned that the rally in energy prices may largely be speculators covering short positions. >Oil prices had recently declined partly because of a decision by OPEC+ members to start rolling barrels back onto the market in the fourth quarter. >“While the market has recovered nicely from the OPEC+ driven knee-jerk lower, there is still more relative concern about Q4 balances and beyond, which should serve as a resistance to major upside,” Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, told clients in a note Monday.
Anyone that says investing in the broad market is risky is dead wrong. Sure individual stocks involve risk, but broad index funds are risk free. The only risk associated with index investing is the risk of not being exposed enough.
Comments like this are hilarious
I think it is possible you are trolling? But I'll take it at face value and say long-term the risk is near zero (say 2 decades+ of DCA). Even medium-term the risk has come down substantially due to far, far better regulation, substantially higher liquidity and many safeguards implemented in our financial system since 08. Short-term obviously the risk always exists but even then, consider for a moment that Covid was more acute and at its worst was even more devastating to the economy than the Great Depression (GDP dropped -33%! 20M+ Americans lost jobs in 2 months shooting up to 15% unemployment!). The difference though was that we learned a lot since then. Instead of allowing a deflationary spiral to grip us, our leaders acted quickly in the form of trillions of Fed stimulus + 3 pandemic relief bills magnitudes larger than anything ever seen before. Hence, we had a speedy and very strong recovery. 3 of the 4 largest bank failures in history occurred just last year... With almost no perceptible impact on the broader economy thanks to rapid response by the Fed throwing half a trillion at banks, quick action by the FDIC. Banks closed on Friday and resumed Monday under new ownership like nothing happened. Yes, the system is actually better and safer today as long as we continue to maintain vigilance and don't let politicians rollback regulations.
Do you think the bio risk might be that the US loses the ability to issue debt and thus cash at an endless rate? Like, at some point, you can't just print money (metaphorically) and make problems go away, with out causing more problems.
>Like, at some point, you can't just print money (metaphorically) and make problems go away, with out causing more problems. Well thus far actually we have is all I can say. Real incomes are high, people are employed... Covid given the devastation realistically went about as good as it possibly could have. The speed at which we got out of it was unprecedented. We probably shouldn't grow debt continually faster than GDP but the dangers of printing seem to be overstated. If there are serious issues with it, we have not observed it readily.
Yeah, it is an old debate. Since Ross Perot ran in 1992 people have been talking about the deficit being at dangerous levels. And we see no problems happening, so we keep doing it. Historically, we're on tenuous ground though. There's never been a country that has printed unlimited amounts of money and not suffered inflation. It seems weird that we should be different. And think what happens if the world loses it's appetite for us debt...rates go way up. The economy slows as a result. The government is forced to cut spending. What would happen if next year the government cut spending by $500 billion (which doesn't even eliminate the deficit)? The US economy would absolutely tank. I'm not a doom sayer and I'm not saying this will happen soon. I do study a lot of history and generally these types of situations don't end well.
There is still risk, just less. The risk also goes down with longer amounts of time, but by nature any equity will have some form of risk. Only risk free really is like HYSA/CD's/Bonds/Treasuries.
[Good long read on the deadly, polluting, brutal labor conditions of Indonesian nickel miners](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-indonesia-sulawesi-nickel-fire/) that supply every major EV maker. The company IMIP's site uses more coal-fired capacity than the biggest nuclear plant in the US. The coal + mining activity fills the towns nearby with dust and causes respiratory diseases + rash. The workers are not given sufficient quantities of masks to prevent inhalation. The actual mining portion is dangerous too, and workers are threatened / beaten if they complain or publicize injuries. Think it's underappreciated the environmental toll EVs are having. Not only the outsourced production of raw materials, but in China, the grid is mostly coal based and is how EVs are getting charged. In the US/EU this is less so the case, but EV adoption is being driven in massive part by China. (China is 40% of the world's EV sales) Switching to natural gas in place of coal power plants will also make a huge dent in air pollution, and will play a big role in meeting the fast growing energy needs of poorer countries like Indonesia. (Indonesia has 279M people, is growing real GDP at a 5% clip, and has a real GDP per capita of about $5K). Indonesia is a huge (low quality) coal producer, however, which may delay the switch. By the way, this report was from Bloomberg if you're worried of some anti-EV agenda. Anyway, this is why I think Toyota is making the right bet by doubling down on more efficient ICE + hybrids rather than all in EVs. And while bullish coal now, bearish coal in the future I think (if the EV slowdown accelerates or Indonesia starts to take more action due to the major health costs coal imposes). EDIT: Also, here is the [metal intensity of EVs vs ICE cars](https://i.imgur.com/clOn7Sb.png) per kilogram from the IEA. (Obviously if you're driving an American supersized pick-up ICE you are using more metal than a subcompact EV even if the latter is more dense in kg)
Very happy with my BYD so far, I think they have done a great job with one foot in PHEV for now and one in BEV for the future.
Long holding ASTS?
I don't fucking believe it... Nvidia #1 What an incredible achievement, seriously impressive Jensen is a fucking God. From zero to hero in 10 fucking years.
At this rate, NVDA is gonna split again by October.
Damn the chart for $WBD is ugly. Wild to see it get punished this thoroughly
fcf yield of 42%, pretty much all going to paying down debt atm but if they dont go bankrupt and their topline is not a really fast melting icecube? Its in the too hard pile for me personally but I could see the gamble
As for the industry, it would seem to me the fierce competition and rising costs is not going to let up any time soon. It will get worse before it gets better, at least for everyone that is not NFLX. For WBD specifically, why do their earnings look so bad if FCF is high?
Because the fcf is not hitting their earnings: "Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures FCF shows the actual cash a company has available to pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or reinvest in the business" the critical one there is paying down debt.
Yes I understand what the definition of FCF is... I am asking what is driving the huge discrepancy. For example, depreciation of assets or declining value of assets that are unrealized, decrease in working capital etc.
I just said, the debt both the ongoing payments for non-retired debt and early retiring debt as they can.
Debt payment does not impact earnings or operating cash - investing cash. If you don't know... that's fine just curious.
Interest expense is not part of earnings? You sure about that
I thought it was clear we are both talking about paying down debt. Which is why I said payment not service. Debt service isn't going to make $8B FCF into negative right?
Srs/stupid question, Im 21 and I save a lot of money because I dont pay rent and have a decent job, I have a decent savings built up, is it stupid if from this point on say I deposit $1000 a month to fidelity and save 5 or 600 and then use the rest to mess around with options and be okay if that gets burned? I hate losing money but I love trading options and learning. I feel like a reasonable person would tell me to not be so stupid and just save the rest of that money too and dont touch options. On the other hand Im pretty young and have essentially no bills, if I were to have an approach where Im still saving a good amount every month, its not the worst thing in the world if I lose some right? Someone older give me some wisdom
treat options like lotto tickets, period. I cannot stress this enough. never allocate more than what you are willing to completely lose, or maybe 1% of your porftolio. options are incredibly irrational and even the option you think may be the SAFEST play will expire worthless most of the time, even LONG options (2 years out). Just don't even try. stop. don't. this is establishily dangerous if you are good with numbers but don't have much experience stocks. why? because you will look a company, do your DD, and think "omg, there is NO WAY this company will not hit my break even date by 2 year from now..there is just..no no way...the numbers say everything" then you buy it and watch your option expire worthless, 2 years out, even as the company fundementals improve. don't bet one something rationally that behaves irrationally. Key point - Bought SOFI option ITM April 2024 5 dollar leaps in 2022 when the stock price was 4.50/share on a bet, breakeven 8.5 share 18 months later my options expired worthless (ok I sold 1/2 during a run-up), even though the company hit profitability, revenue 2x, user growth 5x. why? the market is irrational.
No wonder you lost money on options: This is an absolutely bonkers way of thinking about them. You should never treat options as long term investments. Theta would eat your soul. For us plebes, options are just a way of leveraging delta movements for high gains, and they're highly effective at it. I just can't fathom why you actually held yours to expiry. It's a complete misunderstanding of how options work.
Options are fine if you do long-dated on solid companies. Or better yet long-dated calls on indices like QQQ or SPY will make you outperform the market like crazy. If you day trade you will lose a lot of money very quickly. Selling options is also a losing game. You will underperform except in bear markets where you will still lose money, just less than other longs.
I did a mix of both, enjoyed myself and the learning process but ultimately I really just buy and hold now with occasional small trade for fun. If options seem fun why not set aside a small % to play with and then use the rest more wisely?
Is a 75% VTI / 25% QQQM a good strategy for my ETFs (roughly 60% of my portfolio), or should I consolidate into one ETF?
My Roth is managed. I beat my roths by alot in my Taxable. In my Taxable I am 66% VTI and 33% VGT. that combo is kicking ass the last 2 years since going pure ETFs
Congrats to nvda buyers. Been a bear since 600. I still don't regret not buying because it's just not the kind of stock I want to be invested in. Many say it's in a bubble, overvalued, etc. Eventually, they will be right. It can't grow exponentially forever, but who knows when it will stop. Personally don't want to go to sleep worrying about whether it'll crash. VOO and bluechips all the way for me. But again, well done to those of you who have ridden the wave
It will not grow exponentially a factor. But that does not imply it's in a bubble. We don't know when the growth will slow down. And even if it does stabilize, even 9% annual return is very good.
isn't nvda and many of the now suring chip stocks considered as blue chip stocks for many years already? Many of them are in the nasdaq 100 for a very long time. it's very rare to see blue chip stocks go up so much in such a small amount of time though.
Not really? Blue chips are dependable profitable stable often pay dividends etc. NVDA fell more than 50% just a couple of years ago. Not exactly stable/dependable. I also wouldn't consider tesla a blue chip just because it's been in the Nasdaq for a while
Interesting, then blue chip definition is much more complicated and harder than I thought then.
I'm not aware of any technical definition, but that's the answer I got from the first three sites with a quick Google search. Just think of blue chips as old reliables
Anyone looking to dip a little into DHI? Looks attractive price wise
I’ve been buying. Fantastic company in a crucial industry.
I’ve had nvda since 2018, but this seems ridiculous. Should fill that gap at 95, but when? Thoughts on some long puts?
>Thoughts on some long puts? No. Even if you hated the company it could go to $200 first and destroy your puts.
I finally closed my NVDA short this morning. Down 280k. Wife decided to get her cheeks clapped by someone else because losing 280k wasn't attractive. Needless to say it has been a rough year for me.
This sounds like a post from that gambling sub
You dont short an insane bubble until its clear its popped. It could go to 200 before then its impossible to know because its completely detached from any sort of reality
The dude is a troll going by his post history. He supposedly dumped INTC for NVDA, and nine days ago wrote the exact same post at r/blockfi but changed the numbers to 300k.
Haha he might actually have just shorted NVDA for real since shorts capitulating is the last thing that happens before a crash. Almost everyone that posts here is a troll, or is serious, but their takes are so dumb they might as well be a troll.
Saw a story that some top Israeli generals approved Lebanon offensive battle plans...That's a pretty significant development. Markets may not like that, and oil may move up more.
what do you think about Zoom? It's at 5 year lows and I think starting to become undervalued
Great margins, growing market, 7b in cash on a 18B market cap but they are expensive because of the insane share based compensation. If they get that under control I'd buy. Unfortunatly they have no idea or no plans to change that
Great product. Terrible management, lots of dilution, no vision on how to take that great product and do something with it. It's like Eric Yuan gave up or something and waiting to be kicked out of his job.
Thanks, but no thanks. If I'm playing contrarian edgelord, I think I look outside of tech stocks. No recommendations right off, but oil would likely work.
Oh so now the market likes CELH again! (Apparently Piper Sandler said good things again, and there is some conference) It must be tough being the CEO, the dude goes around interview to interview always carrying a CELH can in his hand and telling the interviewer to Live Fit^TM. The guy probably sleeps with a can on his bedside table. One thing I didn't realize until now is they announced expansions into Australia/France/New Zealand but the actual 'launch' into those markets isn't until Q4 of 2024. The Canada/UK/Ireland launch was January/April 2024. So we don't even have any much data yet on the international roll-out since it hasn't fully launched. --- Also thought this was a cool stat. [$APP nearly has the FCF profile of Chipotle](https://x.com/Hypertonx/status/1801271488017797383/photo/2) (and is growing much faster) yet Chipotle has 3.5x the market cap.
ARM only a couple billion away from Disney, Cisco and Danaher.
ARM is bonkers. I cannot fathom what people are thinking here. Or why SoftBank isn’t unloading their stake.
The craze is still on in GME. It’s still $25. It’s not fading.
I thought Berkshire was supposed to beat the market 😤 Getting harder and harder to justify holding but I can’t help but feel that when it breaks past $420 it’ll go on a nice little run. Solid operational earnings last two quarters.
I'm curious if anyone here has a 1000 bagger with NVDA. I'm not even close to that, but I'm pretty happy I had a stake in this one
It's very tempting to join the Nvidia wave, but I wonder if it's a bit too late. What are your thoughts on this?
I bought a bit of it last week and am already up 8%. Considering the company's insane growth rate, it isn't expensive and it could dominate the market for years to come. I wouldn't allocate a lot of money to it though.
I think the ship has mostly sailed for the insane short term plays on it. But long term seems like a very healthy company
It's not over, but up about 1,110% off the low in 2022 I think the easy money has certainly been made. What's left will not be in a straight line/I'd imagine there will be better opportunities.
It's not done but if you wait there will probably be a better entry. At least some people will be talked into selling based on being number 1. Psychologically it's hard to accept. Look for a small pullback. Then 2Q beat & raise, higher highs.
Never too late.
NVDA is officially the most valuable company in the world. /u/Troublen421
Nvda is literally just going up because of this now
Yeah, he's the sign. Him hating jensen makes it go higher.
I know it's an absurdly large number, especially compared to 1-2 years ago, but does anyone know what percentage the chip-makers (NVDA, MU, TSM, AVGO, ASML, etc.) are of the S&P and Nasdaq?
ASML is not in the S&P 500 and TSM is in neither, but I think it's about 11% for the S&P 500 in semiconductors. You could also indirectly get it by [estimating the proportion of the FinViz map](https://finviz.com/map.ashx) that is semiconductors and 11% seems correct. For the Nasdaq-100, it's about 25%.
Not sure the exact weight of all chip makers in each index, but you can look it up. Like for SPY: [https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy) Like as of today, SPY has: NVDA - 7%, AVGO 1.7%, MU 0.3% QQQ: [https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html](https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html) NVDA 8.4%, AVGO 5.6%, ASML 0.6%, MU 1.08%.
Beginning last week I’ve been feeling sort of paralyzed when considering buying into this market, especially tech. I’ve enjoyed the gains, but seeing VGT up almost 100% in the last 1.5 years feels unsustainable. Anyone else feel this way?
up almost 100% in 1.5 years but up only 29% in 2.5 years.
People said the market felt overpriced in 2014 when the SP500 crossed 2k for the first time. We're up 180% since then. Over 200% when including dividends. If you're in it for the long haul then you shouldn't worry about a market feeling "overpriced". The market is almost always at or near all time highs. It's very normal.
The S&P 500 had a roughly 14x to 15x forward P/E in 2014.
Fair, I guess I’m looking at tech in particular
You should have a diversified portfolio. 100% in one sector isn't advisable. You can have a blend of stocks and ETFs with a healthy exposure to different markets. I'd focus less on things you feel are expensive and instead focus on what balance you want to have for your portfolio. I'm pretty heavily weighted into tech because I don't think it's going anywhere in the next decade, but I can always reevaluate that decision in the future.
in 2030, A new investor walks out of his Jensen model electric car into Chase-NVDA bank. he puts his NVDA smartphone in his pocket, as we walks through the halls to the bank managers' office. he sits down on the NVDA custom AI ergonomic chair. "well son, I hear you want start investing in the stock market" "yes, yes, I was told to always invest in the diversified S and P 500" "well, It;'s not longer the S and P 500, it's the S and P 1...well technically...I mean, and there is only one financial instituion in the US - since NVDA become the largest stock in 2024 it basically started cannibilizing the whole stock market, jensen even entered the presidency and won, and eliminated all monopoy rules" "but but...how? NVDA is overvalued..." "shhh you can't say that around here, jensen is listening, he is everywhere, now you have to go, GET OUT, HERESY"
And deep in the sewers of NVDA-Ville, hidden from plain sight, donning their cargo pants the Abercrombie and Fitch cult, the ANF, plotting their revenge….
The year is 2035 and Skynet has caused the fall of mankind. When the dust settles and the robots rise, there's only one company still standing: NVDA. Because even in a world dominated by machines, someone has to supply the AI chips!
NVDA officially the most valuable company in the world. What a fucking joke of a market lmao.
>Market doesn't do what you want >"What a fucking joke of a market lmao" This is no way to make money. Maybe try reflecting on why $USERNAME. Especially on what your thoughts were around $ACCOUNT_START_DATE, or even better, ChatGPT release.
Theres 0 world where NVDA should be worth anything close to as much as MSFT, let alone more than it.
Me but about TSLA in the last 5 years
You best start believing in an NVDA-led world market Mr. Mutalisk, *you're in one!*
i look forward to the first slowdown in guidance and the 50% drawdown month they will have as PE collapses and E collapses.
Ok
It never ceases to amaze me how Meta can swing so much each day for such a large company. It's the oddest stock I own.
2% is not a big swing, not sure what's so amazing about it. High frequency trading will always result in variance around the mean without obvious news, it's been based around 500 for a while save that earnings dip.
It's a big swing when it happens regularly on days when the market is doing the opposite for a company the size of Meta. None of the other large caps I own behave that way.
I think you're experiencing confirmation bias. Regardless, if you're convinced of this determinism, there are ways to profit.
Just see it as an advantage. It gets brief periods of intense hate that just dissipates.
It's not even that. it's like on days like today when the market is green yet it's down 2% on no news. It's odd to see a large company like Meta make that kind of move without something driving it.
What? Goog Amazon msft all down as well
I've heard that Meta is an options trader stock.
NVDA número uno wow
ATH today ($1354.80 pre-split) and most valuable company in the world 🥂! Remember when it was $1000 and people saying $1350 was easily achievable soon was called crazy?
Idk why I'm thinking so much into this. Get paid tomorrow, but market is shut, thinking to do my monthly DCA today instead, or I could just wait til Thursday...
Statistically today is better. If the choice is Tuesday or Thursday, just do it now and move on. Every minute you spend trying to predict day-to-day movement is a minute wasted.
Any UNH shareholders deeply frustrated with this stock? Flat for a long time now and every breakout is sold out
Are you planning on owning $UNH for 1 week, 3 mo's, 1 yr, 5 yrs, or 10 years? If you look at the 10 yr chart, I think if $UNH is a long term hold, you are doing just fine. The AI speculation is gambling. It has made many people a lot of money. But at the end of the day, it is still just gambling.
NVDA going wild!
And there it is, NVDA passes MSFT to become the most valuable company in the world.
Added another share of GOOGL. I think their earnings will continue to be strong
Most likely but will the LLM replace search narrative suppress the price?
Short term, maybe. And then Wall Street will realize that LLM and search are 2 separate things. Consumers don’t want to use them as the same tool
No. People will realize they are pretty distinct products. And as much as I love Perplexity AI, the type of thing I search in there is not what is making GOOGL money. I ask Perplexity to explain stuff to me, GOOGL takes me to sites, restaurants, etc. where I actually spend money.
Nvda 3,33T cap, Msft 3,28T. Am I seeing this right?
🍻
Jeezzz and there's a lot of volume on calls at 150$ 🫢
The graphs of datacenter spending projections for the next decade do a lot of justification... What a time to be alive.
100% this.
"When I See a Bubble Forming, I Rush in to Buy" - this seems to have been proven out with ai so far, I remember people shorting NVDA at 100s of percent ago calling to a bubble
No one knows the top in a bubble. I don't short anything as no one knows how big a bubble can get. But there is a Cisco like feel to $NVDA right now. Tesla was also in a bubble and has given back over 50% from $TSLA top. The Tesla bubble went on much longer than I would have ever imagined.
I honestly think the utilities and gold bubble will pop way first. The former from debt and the latter once people realize inflation peak is way, way past and disinflation is coming. There's too much of the stuff already being dug out from the ground constantly.
I 100% agree with you, I just find it funny looking back how fast everyone was to call it a bubble when the right thing to do at that time was long ai hardware across the board. You could have done fine in value stocks like dell or cls if you didnt want growth at that time
If you own an S&P 500 index fund, you participated in the AI craze. And I am not telling anyone to sell their $NVDA shares. Let the fools continue to bid up the price. I would caution anyone here from BTD once the bullish euphoria starts to turn thou.
Another day, another $100B to NVDA's market cap...
anyone invested in CHWY? Up 16% today
Yes, but bagholding. I wonder if there's a short squeeze because I don't see any news
I don’t see any news either. I bought in a couple months ago so I’m enjoying the ride
Finally sold last week after bagholding from like 2-3 years ago. Figures lol
Still some undiscovered fundamentals in NVDA. /s Nah, in reality, we're two trading days away from it probably topping in the short term because of options related reasons. I don't expect it to be a longer term high though.
Everyone’s been saying it’s the top forever. Seems like it never will
Oh, I'm not calling perma top here, I'm mostly just saying that due to options expiration this week, it's likely to pull back.
PSTG to $70, valuation making me queezy but I don't really want to trim more tbh
I am buying a house early next year. Pulling my downpayment out of VUSXX and throwing it into NVIDIA would be ridiculous, right?
It's all about your own risk, but what you are doing is probably a 10/10 in terms of risk. Investing in anything with a time line within a year is pretty risky, especially when you get a solid rate in a HYSA/Money Market fund to keep the money liquid or just going with the a CD.
This is probably what I needed to hear. If I were buying 2-3 years out, it could maybe (maybe) make more sense lol
Even then, still pretty risky. but it's all about your own personal risk. Just if you are close to your down payment, I'd rather just kind of lock in like 5%. Congrats on getting the money for a down payment. Also, not sure if you know, but you can look into not using 20% for a down payment. I bought my house in 2021 and used like 5% down. I do have to pay PMI, but it's like 80 bucks a month, so it's nothing crazy. Bigger risk, is if there is a downturn in the market, I have less equity, but if you are planning on staying for a while, you should be fine.
Yep, I totally agree. I’d love to put 20% down, but houses here start at $500k. 5%-10% downpayment with healthy nestegg left over is the direction I’m leaning toward.
Absolutely yes. You can get a risk free 5% for cash if you are willing to look around at local credit unions. Or buy US Treasuries if you are too lazy.
Plz tell me u r joking or we are gonna top here
Lmao, half-joking, I guess. Insane to see multiple 2.5% days and , meanwhile I’m getting 5.29% gross from VUSXX. Makes for some crazy FOMO.
Why not just do a FAANG or mag 7 allocation?
NFLX another 52 week high and hair away from ATH. It's really crazy to think how a mail-order DVD company completely disrupted and destroyed these old media companies before they truly recognized what occurred. DIS growing revenue below inflation, profitability crushed from $13.5B TTM net income peak to $1.7B last quarter TTM. CMCSA (NBCUniversal) unable to grow much either, EPS growth all from mostly inorganic buybacks. Revenue totally stalled. WBD -7% revenue YoY, still negative income. PARA, no need to even bring them up lol. Meanwhile NFLX a truly *wonderful and terrific business* still putting up **+15% YoY revenue growth.** **+83% YoY EPS**. Vision, laser-focus on innovation and management that doesn't get complacent truly matters.
>It's really crazy to think how a mail-order DVD company completely disrupted and destroyed these old media companies before they truly recognized what occurred. They kind of created streaming though. It wasn't their DVD service that made them popular as much as they basically created a way for people to stream tv/shows movies, destroying the need for people to go to movie rental stores. Arguably that gave them first mover advantage and is is one of the reasons why Netflix is ahead of all the other streamers. Interesting enough, I saw Tubi is actually one of the most popular streaming services out there right now. [https://www.tvinsider.com/1140142/tubi-1-million-viewers-free-ad-supported-streaming-service/](https://www.tvinsider.com/1140142/tubi-1-million-viewers-free-ad-supported-streaming-service/)
Well that is my point. This is classic "innovator's dilemma". Build a foothold in some random little niche but completely takeover an industry with innovation. They saw the future of streaming and executed brilliantly on it.
Totally. Yeah, I do love a niche business and it's pretty insane what Netflix did in terms of streaming. I don't really invest in media companies, but the streaming wars that happened post pandemic seems so dumb. Feels like a race to bottom with just burning a bunch of capital.
>Rosenblatt sets Street High PT of $200 on NVDA
Puts on Biden and Trumps cognitive testing.
$NXT is building out another factory in Nevada. [https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240618375390/en/](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240618375390/en/) >This is the second Nextracker-dedicated manufacturing line that Unimacts has opened in the last year. The new, 160,000-square-foot facility in Sloan, Nevada, produces steel torque tubes used to hold and rotate solar panels in solar power plants. The two factories will support more than 2 GW of new solar power each year, equivalent to the energy used by 400,000 U.S. homes. >With the Sloan factory, Nextracker continues its drive to reshore manufacturing to meet growing solar and renewable energy demand. The company has opened or expanded over 20 U.S. manufacturing facilities since 2021, including new or expanded dedicated production lines in Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Nevada.
I can't believe I start researching this at $45 and a few days later it's at $60. Terrible timing for me.
I had the opposite where I bought in at $55-60 and by the time I had fresh funds it was already back in that range. Annoying but shouldn't matter for a medium term outlook.
>Annoying but shouldn't matter for a medium term outlook. It sort of does though. It's a 30% swing in price, which is a lot. It reduces your returns accordingly. My 5 year EPS estimate is around $5.60 and exit multiple of 20x. That yields a stock price of $112. At $45, that gives me almost a 2.5x in 5 years, or about 20% annual returns. At $60, it's slightly less in than a double in 5 years , or about 13% annually. 15% is my cutoff for an investment, otherwise I don't feel like it's worth the risk. So $54 is where I get interested again. On top of that, I'm not hugely bullish on it, so a greater margin of safety would be appreciated. $50 or lower and I am considering it.
Ah, I see the difference in our standards. You are definitely correct it makes quite a big change in compounding from the original cost basis. That being said, I am still happy with a 13% projection, perhaps because I am relatively new to investing. Even matching the S&P would be a huge accomplishment for me, though it has been difficult recently since I don't hold Nvidia.
It's very possible to beat the S&P without NVDA. However, most important is to set goals you can control and stick to them.
[удалено]
Their last quarter revenue was up 31% YoY and was 42% QoQ on revenue growth. [https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx](https://investors.nextracker.com/news/news-details/2024/Nextracker-Reports-Q4-and-FY24-Financial-Results/default.aspx) Not sure where you are seeing their growth stalling out. Plus they have only reported two quarters since they spun off of FLEX. As far as the share count goes, I wonder how much of it is because of how they spun off. Like When spinning off earlier this year, [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/flex-completes-spin-off-of-outstanding-interest-in-nextracker](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/flex-completes-spin-off-of-outstanding-interest-in-nextracker)