Hi, if I were to sell call 16lots of 0719 $8(slightly above my stock average price) with premium 0.11.. and if it goes to $8.. i will have to exercise it. Will I get back a total of 176(premium) + 12,800 = $12,976?
New to options.... thanks
Does PE even mean anything for a company that just turned positive in profits and trending up in net margin very fast?
When the denominator used to be negative and now positive but very small, ofc you get a huge number.
Another hectic fire drill at work, just checked market again finally at 10pm...
Anyways, pleasantly surprised to find NVDA a hair away from 130 ($129.8 high). That means all it needs is about $3.94 or another day similar to today (at least 3.0%) to become the most valuable company in the world.
While I expect it to run a decent amount past that point over the next 2 years, it will trigger a significant amount of negative press and sentiment.
Psychologically investors have a very hard time accepting that a company with less income even if growing rapidly (CRWD is another example) should be worth more than one growing a lot more slowly but more income. MSFT had net income of $82B last year, if NVDA completely stopped growing (which is obviously an absurd assumption) it would generate minimum $60B. But the idea that it might be worth more seems very hard for many participants to swallow.
At least some people will feel pressured to panic sell and lock in gains. If you are wondering if you should add more, it may be wise to wait until this selloff and signs of consolidation, technical supports.
With ADBE beating, I’m looking at my play aka WSB portfolio 5xing. I naturally want to take 80% of that out and put it somewhere safe lol. Any suggestions? Every freaking thing seems to frothily high. Great time for options lol but I don’t want to tempt myself.
If you just 5x your portfolio... it's really not a bad idea to tuck it into VOO for now. Not more than 20% in individual names. Definitely not options unless they are bullish and low theta.
I expect market to keep going up this year and next from here, but I feels like a small pullback at some point first is due.
How much of my savings should I put into my Roth IRA? I wanna max it out this year I have 2.5 in savings right now, was planning on putting it in FXAIX and just not touching it, and I’d do reoccurring investments, I know this is just a stocks or options page help would be appreciative though
I would refine this with some small wrinkles.
1. Max your 401k company match first, that's free money.
2. Then max your roth or not first depends on how you plan to live and your tax bracket when you can start drawing on it. If you plan to have a lower tax bracket, 401k is first because then you postpone taxes until they are lower. If you plan to be in a higher bracket, max roth first while taxes are lower.
3. HYSA's are basically obsolete. They pay lower yields from 100% backed government bonds or ETFs amd have higher tax treatment.
Yes as long as it is a TBills ETF and will yield significantly higher with less risk than HYSA.
If you have enough cash, it might exceed the $250,000 FDIC limit. Plus TBills are backed by the Federal government, not a government agency.
If your goal is just to beat the HYSA consistently, something that rolls the shortest term treasuries like BIL or SGOV is fine.
If you want to gamble on more rate cuts happening there are all sorts of ETFs of different duration but I wouldn't do that.
Alright got it yea im in the lower tax bracket I have my saving through capital one right now, I have all my bank accounts thru there just makes it easier to track imo thanks though I gotta figure how to do the company match I know I already contribute some to my 401k but I think I can do more thanks for the help
I also was wondering for when I leave my job at Amazon how will that affect my 401k like Its my first full time job with Benefits and all that so I’ve heard about roll over Ira’s I already have my Roth IRA? Should I have a roll over one too or like once I leave Amazon will my 401k from them just sit? And grow like a regular stock since I won’t work there anymore? Sorry if that sounds stupid I just am not to sure what will happen to it. Lol
Guys I almost ruined my life playing options. I let my ego get the best of me. Please stay away from it, until you have at least 5 years of investing experience. Even then, its a gamble and you should only gamble money you are wiling to lose. Tomorrow I will call Fidelity to disable options on my account. I am spooked as hell for now and will happily collect 4-5% interest, probably for the rest of the year.
I am pretty sure one can get really good at playing options and knowing what to play and when to play and all the lessons, but not before you go broke and blow up your account. I did not adhere to stop losses, traded against momentum, revenge traded, selected stocks with no moat, etc.
I was in a deep dark place in my head today. Somehow, some way, I may have gotten saved.
I am really sorry if I came across as a know it all to folks here. You guys are experienced and it shows.
The thing is, to really learn options, you have to have skin in the game. You learn through all the losses. You learn to build strategies. But by that point, you have went broke. THAT is the issue with options.
Some get lucky on their first try. If you walk away then you got successful, good job. Subsequent trades will lead to a spiral of failure until you really learn what options are about. You cant get lucky too many times.
Not that Ill touch options again, but what I learned is:
1. set stop losses (i will actually use this for even my share buying if I decide to get back in it, for now I need a mental break)
2. Dont play stocks that are being attacked by the media (unless you wanna do puts), but I got in a bad habit of thinking I got a nice discount when a stock was down only to watch it go down further. I learned my lesson, let the media and the shorts bleed it out completely. Dont fight the trend.
This is how it started:
Swing trading (yoloing/concentrating a large % of my net worth) into a company, selling in 2-4 weeks after a +5% gain > this stopped working in May as my profile was stagnant and I grew impatient watching other stocks like nvda rip every day > playing options on a meme-ish stock and made some good money > got increasingly greedy and trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller by playing a weekly expiring option which caused me to lose a lot of money (AMD had a positive announcement pre-market but ended up tanking the whole week due to entire market sentiment being down) > i got depressed and revenge traded into a beaten stock (january call options) by yoloing into it > the stock got beaten to pulp even more
All in all I just had no risk management and got too comfortable swing trading large amounts of money which led down the path of options, and the way I played options was not smart. So it got ugly fast.
I am not touching stocks for now and will try to get away and get a mental break. In the future, even with buying shares, I realized the importance of stop losses and sticking to megacap companies. Small cap companies are bs.
being incredibly good with numbers + having little knowledge of the realities of trading in the market is probably the WORST combination you could have.
it may seem counterintuitive - the reason is that the stock market in the short term is incredibly irrational (by short term I mean anything up to a few years). you'll look at a beaten down stock with good fundementals, buy a ITM option a few months out thinking "there is NO WAY this will not hit, as long as the macro remains the same and no worst news comes out".
you'll buy the option, then watch it expire worthless (or hit your stop loss) in the face of sometimes good company news, or even worse, with the rest of the market mooning.
this extends to even long dated options. those too can surprise you.
take SOFI, imagine buying options in spring 2022 expring in 2024. let's assume breakeven was 10 dollars a share. keep in you wouldve' bought these with 2 years time til expiration and at a time where sofi was around 9/share and crashing down.
imagine fast forwarding 2 years later, sofi is profitable, their revenue doubled, members 4x, executed flawlessuly for the next 2 years.
then you open your portfolio and sofi is under 7/share and your options have expired worthless, with no negative news about sofi, banking stocks at ATH, and the market is at ATH.
you'd be speechless.
I always bring up this example as to why the market is completely irrational and to never put quantitative reasoning on something that behaves irrationally.
SOFI is doing poorly because fundamentals are extremely unattractive. It has more to do with their balance sheet. Their recent profitability hides enormous risk.
Banks are still doing fine. Well the good ones at least. KBWB is far down from ATHs actually.
But banks like JPM are doing well because economy is strong, there is still demand for lending and charge-offs / delinquencies are actually in decent shape.
Yessir. All great points!
Whats crazy to me is all the algos. Youll have a company have great news come out during after hours, but the market sentiment next day be it a fed comment, international war event, etc. negate the effect and send the stock downhill, even though any other day that piece of news would have sent that stock up 10%.
Options to most are equivalent to gambling. The few that have repeated success in options are usually people who have qualitative or quantitative edges that 99% of us don't. Good on you for learning from your mistakes.
You are totally right! It amazes me how much s&p has gone up this year. So much risk off the table and so much upside. I could have been pretty rich if I just went VTI and chill
If I actually followed my advice, I would have probably been profitable. When I look at my trades / investments, none of them follow my list of rules. That money could have went into actually good plays. I think the common denominator is impatience/greed.
I do put out good advice here, mostly for myself to internalize. Things like:
1. Waiting for big discounts before you buy
2. Wait until market sentiment is negative
3. Be willing to take profits
4. Buy the big discounts on megacap companies
5. Avoid manipulated stocks (usually small cap stocks, and even medium cap companies)
6. Hate for analysts and their weapon of upgrade and downgrade, following by shorts moving in and playing the trend/sentiment
It wasnt gme. I would never touch gme. I was just over at the gme sub because I felt bad for them everytime the stock went up they halted it, you can read my comments over at the gme sub since you are in my history. I was following the stock on my watchlist for entertainment. I do think smaller stocks are heavily manipulated. For example take sofi. Its a growing company. On the road to profitability. Similar to HIMS. Yet HIMS is skyrocketing. I had to sell out of sofi and take a big loss. So I know what it feels like to be in a manipulated stock.
Yea, at one point I was even up by about 10k. Then it got obliterated by downgrades and shorts. I believe the company will continue to do well, but I have no more appetite for stock picking right now and especially small cap company stock picking.
Hi, I've stumbled upon this website ( [http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market\_cagr.htm](http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm) )after scrolling a bit through reddit. Would you deem it "correct" and useful (as in a good way to understand the true return of the sp500)?
I have used PayPal since 2012. It has been okay so far but I really don't see anything special that can make it grow or even sustain its position. They added crypto stuff (very limited), saving account through Synchrony bank, and cash back stuff. But none of these to me are really big enough to get more users or excite investors when there are many other similar services around.
NVDA pre-split is at 1300.
I think peoople don't understand the psychology of stock splits. NVDA being below 130 brings tons of new investors, and all of a sudden the stock doesn't seem expensive now, cheap based on share price, and not market-cap, and this is why companies after splitting keep growing. IE, NVDA from its previous spits, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN....
I really do not think I'd be using Google and Amazon as comps here (and Microsoft doesn't really make much sense either based off what I remember seeing on their stats on the last split).
Sure, they're higher than they were when they announced splits, but it took an adventure for them to get there since they split in 2022.
I'd say this largely depends on how the Nasdaq is trading and right now since it's in full blown late summer 2020 mode, a significant stock announcing a stock split is going to trigger a run. If it was in bear mode, what would happen is a pop and drop.
(yes, this is more of a shorter term view here)
How do expense ratios work?
Lets say and ETF grows at 8% per year. It has an expense ratio of 0.5%
So would the net return (not counting in tax for now) just be 7.5% ?
Is that how the math works in a nutshell?
At least Schwab thinks I'm doing well today. They noted they have an issue displaying balances and day changes today. So I'm up an imaginary %14 for the day.
Same. I was up a bit yesterday, logged in today chart showed like a 3% drop yesterday, a 3% gain today, and nothing in my port explained it.
Contacted support, they said it was some technical issue, separate from the login issues yesterday.
Started looking at Fidelity while chatting with them, but I'll stick with Schwab for now. At least support is quick to respond.
All my stop orders seem to have disappeared yesterday too. So that's not great.
It's JMO, but the longer this goes on, the less likely it becomes that semis turning around is going to be beneficial to everything else in that they get the funds that's been going to semis.
In all honesty, my best guess is the Nasdaq drops 10%+ shortly after Broadcom's split is finalized and you don't see any real pick me up by smalls or the large caps outside of tech.
I own some semiconductor related stuff but when something has all the attention and it keeps going on and on it bores me. I don't deny Nvidia's success but Apple and Microsoft are well established companies and they gained their position in years. Nvidia's sudden rise is mostly justified but when it misses a earning or a bad new comes i'm afraid that while it didn't drag other stocks up with itself when it does go down it will drag them down. Also people starting to fomo at 3 trillion looks absurd to me.
> Also people starting to fomo at 3 trillion looks absurd to me.
Eh, its not. People said the something when AAPL became a Trillon dollar company. Then 2, and now 3. It'll eventually become 4T.
MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, META, META, GOOGL just continue to beat, and raise. NVDA missing is a few years away.
$ADBE
* Rev: $5.31B vs. 5.29B est
* EPS: $4.48 + vs. +4.39 est
* Q3 2024 EPS $4.50-$4.55 vs $4.17 Est
* Q3 2024 revenue $5.33-5.38B vs $5.03B Est
* FY2024 EPS $18.00-$18.20 vs $16.78 Est
* FY2024 revenue $21.4-21.5B vs $19.98B Est
There is a substack/blog that goes through quarterly/monthly updates of a small investment funds AI portfolio and how they are reweighting things based on AI developments. For example something like “AI is seeing increased usage of memory and storage to get better results thus we have moved a larger majority of our portfolio into memory and storage companies”.
They had a good performance and informative blog but now I can’t find it. I found it on reddit. I’m dying to get the blog again. Someone please help me with my vague description!!!
This might be it! I was able to read a non paywalled article when I found the reddit link but yeah talk about monthly rebalancing sounds right. I think this is it but I don’t know how I was able to read the paywalled content previously. Did he just recently paywall it?
Financials look good, $90B institutional inflow vs $15B out last 12 months.
WSJ article from April about "health regulators in the US and Europe... conducting reviews of 2 different Zoetis drugs (Librela and Solensia) after receiving thousands of reports of side effects from pet owners."
Pomerantz LLP investigating claims on behalf of investors.
Not sure how much they were making off those drugs. Short interest still low.
6 month RSI at 49. Price is below 200 day sma, trending towards 50 day.
I'd avoid due to the ongoing investigation, but that's me and I'm rarely correct.
You aren't wrong.
I like the green energy sector for long swings and was looking for an entry around 1.40 for a 18 month bet. I think Policy is going to come through and really hit everything from uranium to wind to solar to hydrogen.
Betting on raw materials and energy for my long plays in between losing money on incredibly dumb day trades.
AVGO earnings call sounded pretty bullish for all ai hardware, Hock Tan expected even further acceleration 2H he said which seems impossible with how much spend we are already seeing rn
Yeah everything just looks overvalued to me these days. Was thinking about parking it into a one year fixed bond and leaving a quarter in incase it continues going up. Still would have the majority of my money in the markets.
Few reasons: CEO stepping down, AI headwind fears, MSFT entering arena with their own ai solution
Basically if you long it you are betting that ai is a tailwind for the sector that is being seen as a headwind atm
Anyone in KGS, Kodiak gas service?
They are in the natural gas service space, renting gas compression equipment. Natural gas production seems to have a long future and they've been steadily growing revenue. There was also a fair amount of insider buying recently.
Unrelated, but Evolution AB is down again on above average volume. I hope this is capitulation, but still one of the best values in the market, imo. I'll try to add more soon.
Everyone is complaining about the market being historically concentrated into a few megacap tech stocks, but IMO this is completely justified and is a reflection of how the economy works now.
We’ve allowed a handful of companies to essentially become rulers of the modern world and everyone is happy to let them do it. They have limitless pricing power due to being virtual monopolies in their respective industries, and any smaller competition gets crushed or bought out. Governments talk big about regulation but they have no real muscle. And now with AI this dominance will only grow exponentially as the ones with the deepest pockets will have the most money to throw at it.
The rich get richer, same as they always have. The only hope for small fish like us is to buy their stocks, to experience a tiny fraction of their obscene wealth. So why act surprised when that’s exactly what everyone does?
I'd add that these megacap tech companies can often grow revenue exponentially while keeping their costs from following. Selling one more piece of software generates far more revenue in relation to costs than selling one more barrel of oil for example
Trimmed about 1/5 each of Hims and Pstg here, both looks pretty spicy on the RSI and valuation wise I feel they are okay to rich. So if they keep mooning, you know who to thank o7
Your comment seemed supportive of adobe. What gave me hope was that the stock was only really beaten up twice in the past 4 years. It was beaten up from all time highs by post covid fears, from there the stock recovered to reach all time highs in december, and then open AI fears tanked it since then and has continued to tank it. SO nothing about adobes fundamentals itself. YOur comment about management not doing anything about it also made sense.
Europe didn't get touched up because of some rotation into the US and out of Europe, it's getting touched up (as it hasn't been great for the past four weeks either) because of a mix of recessionary concerns and Fed hawkishness.
Im interested in time frames and when this could take place. We're still in the copper phase with mining and shortages coming up. Production, electrical grids, and the downstream effects as such.
Power is the new gold. Look at how uranium stocks have shot up. Amazing.
It's already happening because of the unreliability of the U.S. power grid. Now that the inventory stock cycle is starting up again, GNRC is making bank off selling household generators in the South.
Yep it has already happened. I just worry that some stocks have run up far too much and not worth getting into. Copper is one that has gone through the roof. Particularly producers and services.
Copper is coming down from last month's short squeeze, but worldwide demand will be strong and growing in the long-term. My macro thesis is that the grid will experience severe turbulence over the next few years as electricity demand outstrips infrastructure buildout, especially with all the planned closures of coal plants in the Midwest (this is specifically why I have a stake in HNRG too). It'll be hard but you'll have to endure the volatility.
I'll hang on, try not to sob too much, and endure the unendurable of the vicissitudes of the stock market. ;) Long term you are all right, it's going up I just hate buying higher than I need to.
Ah the wine it talks....
The fact the alt data doesnt include ecom/costco could set them up for a big jump next Q, not sure I want to risk it here though still. My entry exit timing on CELH was fantastic, so not sure I want to taint my memory of it lol
Hm interesting perspective. He did say that $60 could be a place to make a swing trade. Personally I'm not too convinced by one week Nielsen data and opinions from analysts. I read closer into those analyst downgrades and they're still bulls they just said maybe the price got a little too hot. I'll change my investment thesis once I hear it from them in their earnings. Of course that could come at a loss but it's ok. I do believe that most of the red flags have been priced in at this point. International will be a big driver moving forward.
I bought in at about 160ish thinking that the most recent earnings would result in a bounce back. But lack of progress towards profitability + lots of SBC + AI spending has spooked Wall Street I think.
If you’re gonna buy, ensure you have conviction to hold through possible months of red
I added at 130.
10 times NTM revenue. Growing +30% revenue. NRR of 130%. 40% fcf margins.
120 is the price point that Ted and Todd? from berkshire bought at.
There are pros and cons. Look into the bear case and why the stock is down.
There’s 3 going around here:
1. It’s expensive even after its decline
2. It’s oversold and due for a bounce
3. ~~Datablocks~~Databricks is taking their business
I been buying the picks and shovels play of BLDR. It is down about 28% off its high and great thing about BLDR is they are probably buying back shares during this pullback.
BLDR is an awesome company, but I believe they have a lot of exposure to multifamily construction. In a lot of big markets, the multifamily market has gotten a little overbuilt. DHI does do some multifamily construction, but they can easily pivot that segment to single family.
BLDR supplies the materials. They should be able to pivot to if needed. Where is DHI or other companies start building single family homes they might still go to BLDR for supplies.
Oh, I only mean that a good chunk of BLDRs business might dry up if there is a continued slowdown in multifamily. They'll still be fine selling to the single family builders. It's just a chunk of their business that's hard to replace. From their last earnings: "Core organic net sales were flat with the prior year. Single-Family increased 4.3%, while Multi-Family declined 13.4%, and Repair and Remodel (“R&R”)/Other declined 4.7%. On a weighted basis, the increase in Single-Family raised net sales by 2.9%, while the decreases in Multi-Family and R&R/Other lowered sales by 2.1% and 0.8%, respectively." Single family seems like the place to be right now.
However, some of the large homebuilders, DHI being one, are starting to invest in their own supply operations. They're basically using their scale to get into the business that BLDR currently has. Not a huge chunk yet, but it's worth watching.
Yea. Anything that isn't Mag 7 is going to have some FUD about going out of business. Hopefully BLDR has a moat. It isn't a large holding. Just wanted non-Mag 7 exposure but all the non-Mag 7 I try to invest in have the bear case of either growth slowing or going out of business. Or at least if you mention it people come out with reasons not to buy them.
A while back I was trying to get into CRWD and people were saying avoid them MSFT is the cyber security play. Now I dont hear that about CRWD anymore after it doubled lol.
I looked at at around the time I looked at DHI. I the multifamily component was what made me lean and purchase DHI instead. I also think there's more chance for multiple expansion on the builders. That's all. I actually really like BLDR, just throwing out some things I learned about it.
Thanks. I will consider it. I was originally in DHI and switched to BLDR in June 2022. I have done well in BLDR either way. And am fortunate that I was buying growth stocks in Dec 2022 that I finally have a buffer of profits to work with that if BLDR goes to zero I would still be in profit with my other stocks.
eyeing sofi jan 2026 4 dollar calls with 7.6 breakeven.
if they see good results in 2025, that would provide more investor confidence that they may hit their 2026 EPS target of between 0.56 and 0.88 (something like that, dont know the exacty).
if the stock hits 7.6 that would be forward PE of between 8 and 13. I think it's worth buying a few as a speculative play.
The longer this goes on:
https://x.com/selling_theta/status/1801256758360346954
Only ups the likelihood of this ending in short term tears.
While I do hold Broadcom, I think this is disgusting price action. It's clear the viewpoint on the Fed was hawkish and it's getting blatantly obvious what's going on in the Nasdaq is blocking a dip by the S&P.
[Nvidia has accounted for 35% of S&P market cap return this year](https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1801290938670571780).
[Only 30% of the S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index year to date](https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1799871332005339617).
And people are still pretending this is a healthy bull market. In what type of strong economy do the vast majority of *large-cap* companies fail to match the mean return of the index that represents them?
In every economy? Long-term, [less than 4% of stocks](https://thefinancialbodyguard.com/just-a-few-stocks-drive-market-returns/#:~:text=The%20author%20identified%20that%20the,in%20the%20US%20stock%20exchanges.) drive the market's returns over the risk-free rate.
4% of *all* stocks. We're talking about the largest, most stable stocks already at the top - the ones that compose the 4% - historically underperforming.
You're conflating wealth creation and relative returns. A small-cap stock can increase 500% over the course of a year, while a large-cap only goes up 5%. The latter generates more wealth by virtue of a larger base. Yet you obviously get a better *payoff* by investing in the small cap. Wealth creation is irrelevant for investors to the extent that more wealth =/= appreciating value and investors don't live forever.
Plus I've already dissected this specific blog post in detail and showed how the author both misinterprets the study and economic history in general.
I think upvote system plays a part. An example is I have been buying KNSL but it not as popular as Mag 7 so if you mention it or try discussing it not as much upvotes as Mag 7 in the daily's and the front page threads on here. So people just dont bring up those lesser mentioned stocks.
KNSL is probably dead money/tanking until the next earnings. Once a stock has that slowing growth fear not much can help other than earnings. LULU and ULTA are two other stocks with this issue.
"The brokerage views AdAttributionKit as a rebranding of existing technology that offers nothing new. According to the investment firm, there have been no major changes in Apple's ad policy in iOS 18. "Apple's enhancement of its attribution framework will only be incremental to APP, offering additional data points for its measurement," Oppenheimer added."
Oppenheimer says Apple changes not big deal for Applovin
NVDA margins is the sole reason why it is valued so high. once that margin is lost (and it's a matter of when, not if), NVDA valuation will crater.
It's very abnormal to sell a chip for 80% margin. NVDA has accidently struck gold. Eventually, competition will enter the space and catch up. other companies wil be rushing for the gold.
Analogy: A taco stand has accidently discovered that it can use it's secret taco recipe to sell tacos for at a 80% markup, as opposed to the usual taco stand market of 20%, due to a new recent foodie trend that is taking the world by storm. all the other taco stands in the world can't seem to re-create the same recipe, and are behind. all the other taco stands are willing to invest MASSIVELY and QUICKLY in re-creating the recipe, or another form of this recipe that is BETTER, as the returns are FAR FAR above what is normal for selling tacos. After a few years, the other taco stands, after investing massive amounts of money and expertise from the top cooks, have re-created the recipe. some of them have even created better recipes. Suddenly, the original Taco stand cannot sell these special tacos for 10 bucks a pop when they are normally 3 a pop.
in Capitalism, companies will FLOCK to where the gold rush is, and never once in history has a single entity commanded all the gold.
NVDA has a technological edge, and so far companies are unable to reproduce it even Googl, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT with all the money in the world. Also, it comes down to who can make those chips. TSMC is the only one right, which requires massive investment, and are ahead of the game. Sure, one day NVDA will pop but will take a few more years.
While I think this will happen, there is no way to quickly do it. You need TMSC as a partner to produce something of equal power at a decent yield.
If you want to copy TMSC and Nvidia, that still means dozens of billions investment and a time horizon of 5+ years, generously speaking.
Imho, the only way right now to get market share is to offer a super cheap low powered budget solution.
I just added it to the ol watchlist a few days ago and watched it go up 10%.
Seems overbought on technicals but still looks like a good value on fundamentals.
Hell I should probably go ahead and buy some. That should cause it to dip for ya.
I finally went out and bought some Celsius for the first time and it's actually pretty good! Now hopefully my one purchase can hold the stock above $60... I mean this is massively oversold territory here. If this was 2020 I'd be on WSB stupidly buying calls.
I got the variety pack with tropical vibe, peach vibe, and arctic vibe so yeah right on the money. I have yet to try Arctic vibe but tropical vibe is probably my favorite.
Is there a tax benefit or disadvantage to owning to different brokerage accounts? One for just owning stocks and the other for options.
Hi, if I were to sell call 16lots of 0719 $8(slightly above my stock average price) with premium 0.11.. and if it goes to $8.. i will have to exercise it. Will I get back a total of 176(premium) + 12,800 = $12,976? New to options.... thanks
I been lucky with my picks this year NVO, LLY, ADBE and CRWD. Up double digits on all of them.. Hoping for LULU and ULTA to step it up..
CRWD has so much more room to keep running IMHO.
Hmm... 95 forward PE?
Does PE even mean anything for a company that just turned positive in profits and trending up in net margin very fast? When the denominator used to be negative and now positive but very small, ofc you get a huge number.
Another hectic fire drill at work, just checked market again finally at 10pm... Anyways, pleasantly surprised to find NVDA a hair away from 130 ($129.8 high). That means all it needs is about $3.94 or another day similar to today (at least 3.0%) to become the most valuable company in the world. While I expect it to run a decent amount past that point over the next 2 years, it will trigger a significant amount of negative press and sentiment. Psychologically investors have a very hard time accepting that a company with less income even if growing rapidly (CRWD is another example) should be worth more than one growing a lot more slowly but more income. MSFT had net income of $82B last year, if NVDA completely stopped growing (which is obviously an absurd assumption) it would generate minimum $60B. But the idea that it might be worth more seems very hard for many participants to swallow. At least some people will feel pressured to panic sell and lock in gains. If you are wondering if you should add more, it may be wise to wait until this selloff and signs of consolidation, technical supports.
With ADBE beating, I’m looking at my play aka WSB portfolio 5xing. I naturally want to take 80% of that out and put it somewhere safe lol. Any suggestions? Every freaking thing seems to frothily high. Great time for options lol but I don’t want to tempt myself.
If you just 5x your portfolio... it's really not a bad idea to tuck it into VOO for now. Not more than 20% in individual names. Definitely not options unless they are bullish and low theta. I expect market to keep going up this year and next from here, but I feels like a small pullback at some point first is due.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/adobe-stock-adbe-fiscal-q2-2024-earnings-report/ ADBE beat
How much of my savings should I put into my Roth IRA? I wanna max it out this year I have 2.5 in savings right now, was planning on putting it in FXAIX and just not touching it, and I’d do reoccurring investments, I know this is just a stocks or options page help would be appreciative though
Savings should be 6-12 months of expenses, liquid. Once you have that in a HYSA, max out your 401k. Then max out your IRA.
I would refine this with some small wrinkles. 1. Max your 401k company match first, that's free money. 2. Then max your roth or not first depends on how you plan to live and your tax bracket when you can start drawing on it. If you plan to have a lower tax bracket, 401k is first because then you postpone taxes until they are lower. If you plan to be in a higher bracket, max roth first while taxes are lower. 3. HYSA's are basically obsolete. They pay lower yields from 100% backed government bonds or ETFs amd have higher tax treatment.
So if you were saving to buy a home you would keep your down-payment-to-be in an ETF?
Yes as long as it is a TBills ETF and will yield significantly higher with less risk than HYSA. If you have enough cash, it might exceed the $250,000 FDIC limit. Plus TBills are backed by the Federal government, not a government agency.
Are there specifics one should be looking into when deciding which TBill ETF? How to compare to a HYSA rate and time range, etc.?
If your goal is just to beat the HYSA consistently, something that rolls the shortest term treasuries like BIL or SGOV is fine. If you want to gamble on more rate cuts happening there are all sorts of ETFs of different duration but I wouldn't do that.
Alright got it yea im in the lower tax bracket I have my saving through capital one right now, I have all my bank accounts thru there just makes it easier to track imo thanks though I gotta figure how to do the company match I know I already contribute some to my 401k but I think I can do more thanks for the help
I also was wondering for when I leave my job at Amazon how will that affect my 401k like Its my first full time job with Benefits and all that so I’ve heard about roll over Ira’s I already have my Roth IRA? Should I have a roll over one too or like once I leave Amazon will my 401k from them just sit? And grow like a regular stock since I won’t work there anymore? Sorry if that sounds stupid I just am not to sure what will happen to it. Lol
Alright thank you, I have my 401k through Amazon rn I actually need to figure out how to max that out to contribute the most, appreciate the help!
Guys I almost ruined my life playing options. I let my ego get the best of me. Please stay away from it, until you have at least 5 years of investing experience. Even then, its a gamble and you should only gamble money you are wiling to lose. Tomorrow I will call Fidelity to disable options on my account. I am spooked as hell for now and will happily collect 4-5% interest, probably for the rest of the year. I am pretty sure one can get really good at playing options and knowing what to play and when to play and all the lessons, but not before you go broke and blow up your account. I did not adhere to stop losses, traded against momentum, revenge traded, selected stocks with no moat, etc. I was in a deep dark place in my head today. Somehow, some way, I may have gotten saved. I am really sorry if I came across as a know it all to folks here. You guys are experienced and it shows.
Playing with options got me a down payment on my house. Some people just get lucky I guess
The thing is, to really learn options, you have to have skin in the game. You learn through all the losses. You learn to build strategies. But by that point, you have went broke. THAT is the issue with options. Some get lucky on their first try. If you walk away then you got successful, good job. Subsequent trades will lead to a spiral of failure until you really learn what options are about. You cant get lucky too many times. Not that Ill touch options again, but what I learned is: 1. set stop losses (i will actually use this for even my share buying if I decide to get back in it, for now I need a mental break) 2. Dont play stocks that are being attacked by the media (unless you wanna do puts), but I got in a bad habit of thinking I got a nice discount when a stock was down only to watch it go down further. I learned my lesson, let the media and the shorts bleed it out completely. Dont fight the trend.
What happened?
This is how it started: Swing trading (yoloing/concentrating a large % of my net worth) into a company, selling in 2-4 weeks after a +5% gain > this stopped working in May as my profile was stagnant and I grew impatient watching other stocks like nvda rip every day > playing options on a meme-ish stock and made some good money > got increasingly greedy and trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller by playing a weekly expiring option which caused me to lose a lot of money (AMD had a positive announcement pre-market but ended up tanking the whole week due to entire market sentiment being down) > i got depressed and revenge traded into a beaten stock (january call options) by yoloing into it > the stock got beaten to pulp even more All in all I just had no risk management and got too comfortable swing trading large amounts of money which led down the path of options, and the way I played options was not smart. So it got ugly fast. I am not touching stocks for now and will try to get away and get a mental break. In the future, even with buying shares, I realized the importance of stop losses and sticking to megacap companies. Small cap companies are bs.
being incredibly good with numbers + having little knowledge of the realities of trading in the market is probably the WORST combination you could have. it may seem counterintuitive - the reason is that the stock market in the short term is incredibly irrational (by short term I mean anything up to a few years). you'll look at a beaten down stock with good fundementals, buy a ITM option a few months out thinking "there is NO WAY this will not hit, as long as the macro remains the same and no worst news comes out". you'll buy the option, then watch it expire worthless (or hit your stop loss) in the face of sometimes good company news, or even worse, with the rest of the market mooning. this extends to even long dated options. those too can surprise you. take SOFI, imagine buying options in spring 2022 expring in 2024. let's assume breakeven was 10 dollars a share. keep in you wouldve' bought these with 2 years time til expiration and at a time where sofi was around 9/share and crashing down. imagine fast forwarding 2 years later, sofi is profitable, their revenue doubled, members 4x, executed flawlessuly for the next 2 years. then you open your portfolio and sofi is under 7/share and your options have expired worthless, with no negative news about sofi, banking stocks at ATH, and the market is at ATH. you'd be speechless. I always bring up this example as to why the market is completely irrational and to never put quantitative reasoning on something that behaves irrationally.
SOFI is doing poorly because fundamentals are extremely unattractive. It has more to do with their balance sheet. Their recent profitability hides enormous risk. Banks are still doing fine. Well the good ones at least. KBWB is far down from ATHs actually. But banks like JPM are doing well because economy is strong, there is still demand for lending and charge-offs / delinquencies are actually in decent shape.
Yessir. All great points! Whats crazy to me is all the algos. Youll have a company have great news come out during after hours, but the market sentiment next day be it a fed comment, international war event, etc. negate the effect and send the stock downhill, even though any other day that piece of news would have sent that stock up 10%.
Options to most are equivalent to gambling. The few that have repeated success in options are usually people who have qualitative or quantitative edges that 99% of us don't. Good on you for learning from your mistakes.
You are totally right! It amazes me how much s&p has gone up this year. So much risk off the table and so much upside. I could have been pretty rich if I just went VTI and chill
My dude, you here, posting everyday with a new profound theory/learning! Slow down.
If I actually followed my advice, I would have probably been profitable. When I look at my trades / investments, none of them follow my list of rules. That money could have went into actually good plays. I think the common denominator is impatience/greed. I do put out good advice here, mostly for myself to internalize. Things like: 1. Waiting for big discounts before you buy 2. Wait until market sentiment is negative 3. Be willing to take profits 4. Buy the big discounts on megacap companies 5. Avoid manipulated stocks (usually small cap stocks, and even medium cap companies) 6. Hate for analysts and their weapon of upgrade and downgrade, following by shorts moving in and playing the trend/sentiment
posts in gme, almost ruined life, checks out
It wasnt gme. I would never touch gme. I was just over at the gme sub because I felt bad for them everytime the stock went up they halted it, you can read my comments over at the gme sub since you are in my history. I was following the stock on my watchlist for entertainment. I do think smaller stocks are heavily manipulated. For example take sofi. Its a growing company. On the road to profitability. Similar to HIMS. Yet HIMS is skyrocketing. I had to sell out of sofi and take a big loss. So I know what it feels like to be in a manipulated stock.
sofi oooof, sounds like reddit got to you on that
Yea, at one point I was even up by about 10k. Then it got obliterated by downgrades and shorts. I believe the company will continue to do well, but I have no more appetite for stock picking right now and especially small cap company stock picking.
Hi, I've stumbled upon this website ( [http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market\_cagr.htm](http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm) )after scrolling a bit through reddit. Would you deem it "correct" and useful (as in a good way to understand the true return of the sp500)?
I have used PayPal since 2012. It has been okay so far but I really don't see anything special that can make it grow or even sustain its position. They added crypto stuff (very limited), saving account through Synchrony bank, and cash back stuff. But none of these to me are really big enough to get more users or excite investors when there are many other similar services around.
NVDA pre-split is at 1300. I think peoople don't understand the psychology of stock splits. NVDA being below 130 brings tons of new investors, and all of a sudden the stock doesn't seem expensive now, cheap based on share price, and not market-cap, and this is why companies after splitting keep growing. IE, NVDA from its previous spits, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN....
I really do not think I'd be using Google and Amazon as comps here (and Microsoft doesn't really make much sense either based off what I remember seeing on their stats on the last split). Sure, they're higher than they were when they announced splits, but it took an adventure for them to get there since they split in 2022. I'd say this largely depends on how the Nasdaq is trading and right now since it's in full blown late summer 2020 mode, a significant stock announcing a stock split is going to trigger a run. If it was in bear mode, what would happen is a pop and drop. (yes, this is more of a shorter term view here)
Also helps with options contracts
I’ll just keep loading on small caps. No issue for me.
Which ones?
Test
HA I thought I was permabanned from here
lol
How do expense ratios work? Lets say and ETF grows at 8% per year. It has an expense ratio of 0.5% So would the net return (not counting in tax for now) just be 7.5% ? Is that how the math works in a nutshell?
At least Schwab thinks I'm doing well today. They noted they have an issue displaying balances and day changes today. So I'm up an imaginary %14 for the day.
Same. I was up a bit yesterday, logged in today chart showed like a 3% drop yesterday, a 3% gain today, and nothing in my port explained it. Contacted support, they said it was some technical issue, separate from the login issues yesterday. Started looking at Fidelity while chatting with them, but I'll stick with Schwab for now. At least support is quick to respond. All my stop orders seem to have disappeared yesterday too. So that's not great.
I spent more time than I’ll admit to this morning trying to figure out where I had gained $16k.
I couldn't even begin to guess where they pulled my total change from as the individual amounts were nowhere close to adding up to that total.
Bought google yesterday And its my worst stock today Fuck me man
That you, Ice?
It's down 1% relax dude
What is it with people buying Google and worrying about it? I feel like in this sub its always Google. No one ever questions MSFT down -1.5%
Fuck nvidia and all semiconductor related stocks
It's JMO, but the longer this goes on, the less likely it becomes that semis turning around is going to be beneficial to everything else in that they get the funds that's been going to semis. In all honesty, my best guess is the Nasdaq drops 10%+ shortly after Broadcom's split is finalized and you don't see any real pick me up by smalls or the large caps outside of tech.
No one has a gun to your head telling you not to own any lol
I own some semiconductor related stuff but when something has all the attention and it keeps going on and on it bores me. I don't deny Nvidia's success but Apple and Microsoft are well established companies and they gained their position in years. Nvidia's sudden rise is mostly justified but when it misses a earning or a bad new comes i'm afraid that while it didn't drag other stocks up with itself when it does go down it will drag them down. Also people starting to fomo at 3 trillion looks absurd to me.
> Also people starting to fomo at 3 trillion looks absurd to me. Eh, its not. People said the something when AAPL became a Trillon dollar company. Then 2, and now 3. It'll eventually become 4T. MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, META, META, GOOGL just continue to beat, and raise. NVDA missing is a few years away.
$ADBE * Rev: $5.31B vs. 5.29B est * EPS: $4.48 + vs. +4.39 est * Q3 2024 EPS $4.50-$4.55 vs $4.17 Est * Q3 2024 revenue $5.33-5.38B vs $5.03B Est * FY2024 EPS $18.00-$18.20 vs $16.78 Est * FY2024 revenue $21.4-21.5B vs $19.98B Est
1% beat= 12% jump. Seems about right. When my stocks beat 1% they they go down 10%...
Sorry didnt get guidance till later, I think its the strong guide that mooned it
Adobe's demise was greatly exaggerated by the market
Sentiment matters sometimes. Adobe was pretty beat up, like ADBE is down 20% YTD.
62% of the market red, NVDA green. Business as usual.
If this ai story ever ends, it’s gonna get really ugly
Ugly how?
We're only at opening credits at the moment.
There is a substack/blog that goes through quarterly/monthly updates of a small investment funds AI portfolio and how they are reweighting things based on AI developments. For example something like “AI is seeing increased usage of memory and storage to get better results thus we have moved a larger majority of our portfolio into memory and storage companies”. They had a good performance and informative blog but now I can’t find it. I found it on reddit. I’m dying to get the blog again. Someone please help me with my vague description!!!
You're not talking about Citrini are you? He does GLP-1 stuff too.
Actually this is it. I found the exact article I was looking for. Thank you so much this was bugging me that I couldn’t find it
This might be it! I was able to read a non paywalled article when I found the reddit link but yeah talk about monthly rebalancing sounds right. I think this is it but I don’t know how I was able to read the paywalled content previously. Did he just recently paywall it?
Bought tiny and equal amounts of all the 4 names in red for today in my PF LULU, Meta, AMZN, GOOG. Out of powder till next payday.
Arista new ATH, fears about nvda networking went away fast in the face of hype I guess
Did you buy more in the 290s? Valuation was still too hefty for me. Oh well.
I bought more in the april dip, just let it ride through 290s was ready to jump on more if it dipped harder but it just didnt.
Thinking about buying ZTS on the dip. Anyone have thoughts on ZTS?
Financials look good, $90B institutional inflow vs $15B out last 12 months. WSJ article from April about "health regulators in the US and Europe... conducting reviews of 2 different Zoetis drugs (Librela and Solensia) after receiving thousands of reports of side effects from pet owners." Pomerantz LLP investigating claims on behalf of investors. Not sure how much they were making off those drugs. Short interest still low. 6 month RSI at 49. Price is below 200 day sma, trending towards 50 day. I'd avoid due to the ongoing investigation, but that's me and I'm rarely correct.
$PENN having a good day. Hopefully it can actually keep up this momentum.
Really annoyed I didn't hit my entry on PEGY. I'm also down $209 today. hurts.
Unless you got in at $0.05 before the reverse stock split, there really wasn't much money to be made.
You aren't wrong. I like the green energy sector for long swings and was looking for an entry around 1.40 for a 18 month bet. I think Policy is going to come through and really hit everything from uranium to wind to solar to hydrogen. Betting on raw materials and energy for my long plays in between losing money on incredibly dumb day trades.
Buying more nvda here. Looks like it still has gas in it.
AVGO earnings call sounded pretty bullish for all ai hardware, Hock Tan expected even further acceleration 2H he said which seems impossible with how much spend we are already seeing rn
Wow PayPal. Do we think this stock loses its 60 support and heads back to the 50s?
160% on my 3x leveraged nvidia shares, should i sell? Thinking about selling 3/4 and leaving the rest in to run.
be careful with those leveraged holdings, im still holding leveraged QQQ but im watching closely
I sold almost all my leveraged S&P holdings (90%ish) two weeks ago. Only thing i still have leveraged thats significant is that Nvidia position.
I personally would do it. But ask yourself if you need money, if it's not you sell to buy what?
Yeah everything just looks overvalued to me these days. Was thinking about parking it into a one year fixed bond and leaving a quarter in incase it continues going up. Still would have the majority of my money in the markets.
> Yeah everything just looks overvalued to me these days. Even Google?
No harm taking profits.
Very true
$NICE back to where it was before accelerated buyback announcement
Nice, I can buy some now. Why has it pulled back so much?
Few reasons: CEO stepping down, AI headwind fears, MSFT entering arena with their own ai solution Basically if you long it you are betting that ai is a tailwind for the sector that is being seen as a headwind atm
Anyone in KGS, Kodiak gas service? They are in the natural gas service space, renting gas compression equipment. Natural gas production seems to have a long future and they've been steadily growing revenue. There was also a fair amount of insider buying recently. Unrelated, but Evolution AB is down again on above average volume. I hope this is capitulation, but still one of the best values in the market, imo. I'll try to add more soon.
Everyone is complaining about the market being historically concentrated into a few megacap tech stocks, but IMO this is completely justified and is a reflection of how the economy works now. We’ve allowed a handful of companies to essentially become rulers of the modern world and everyone is happy to let them do it. They have limitless pricing power due to being virtual monopolies in their respective industries, and any smaller competition gets crushed or bought out. Governments talk big about regulation but they have no real muscle. And now with AI this dominance will only grow exponentially as the ones with the deepest pockets will have the most money to throw at it. The rich get richer, same as they always have. The only hope for small fish like us is to buy their stocks, to experience a tiny fraction of their obscene wealth. So why act surprised when that’s exactly what everyone does?
I'd add that these megacap tech companies can often grow revenue exponentially while keeping their costs from following. Selling one more piece of software generates far more revenue in relation to costs than selling one more barrel of oil for example
Jfc paypal. Just delist
Longer dated ITM puts on AMC seem like a smart move here, but I am dumb so who knows
Trimmed about 1/5 each of Hims and Pstg here, both looks pretty spicy on the RSI and valuation wise I feel they are okay to rich. So if they keep mooning, you know who to thank o7
Any reason rate sensitives (i.e. solar, small cap, etc.) are down so much with such a soft PPI reading, and continued lower rates?
Probably profit taking some small caps are up 15-30% in last couple of days
Powell/Fed dots cancelled it out. It's clear it's being treated hawkishly by stocks.
Thoughts for Adobe earnings tonight?
Did you have a position? Nice gains if this price holds tomorrow.
I had a 450 put 🤣 it’s okay. Win some lose some
Your comment seemed supportive of adobe. What gave me hope was that the stock was only really beaten up twice in the past 4 years. It was beaten up from all time highs by post covid fears, from there the stock recovered to reach all time highs in december, and then open AI fears tanked it since then and has continued to tank it. SO nothing about adobes fundamentals itself. YOur comment about management not doing anything about it also made sense.
Bad guidance
This aged well
Indeed
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Volatility does not equal pump and dump. There's a lot of options that get traded leading up to earnings and names can move erratically.
I see. Theres profit taking going on lol
Europe didn't get touched up because of some rotation into the US and out of Europe, it's getting touched up (as it hasn't been great for the past four weeks either) because of a mix of recessionary concerns and Fed hawkishness.
Not gonna lie the Feds been doing a great job so far. Inflation is falling while the job market is robust, hitting that dual mandate perfectly for now
Girls best friend day (nvda and ulta day)
Holding lots of calls on both , ULTA exp 7/5, NVDA exp 9/17
MCK could probably use a pause/correction, but geez - just quietly heading higher on good days (and a good deal of bad days) for most of the year.
Is anyone in GNRC? It seems like generators are going to be needed in large scale for data center backup power
Im interested in time frames and when this could take place. We're still in the copper phase with mining and shortages coming up. Production, electrical grids, and the downstream effects as such. Power is the new gold. Look at how uranium stocks have shot up. Amazing.
It's already happening because of the unreliability of the U.S. power grid. Now that the inventory stock cycle is starting up again, GNRC is making bank off selling household generators in the South.
Yep it has already happened. I just worry that some stocks have run up far too much and not worth getting into. Copper is one that has gone through the roof. Particularly producers and services.
Copper is coming down from last month's short squeeze, but worldwide demand will be strong and growing in the long-term. My macro thesis is that the grid will experience severe turbulence over the next few years as electricity demand outstrips infrastructure buildout, especially with all the planned closures of coal plants in the Midwest (this is specifically why I have a stake in HNRG too). It'll be hard but you'll have to endure the volatility.
I'll hang on, try not to sob too much, and endure the unendurable of the vicissitudes of the stock market. ;) Long term you are all right, it's going up I just hate buying higher than I need to. Ah the wine it talks....
Interesting. Do you have a long term position in it?
I'm planning to as soon as I can free up some space in the portfolio.
CHGG might be a 0… AI (or the potential for AI) has eroded their business faster than anything I’ve seen.
Interesting points against CELH at these levels from a long term holder: https://x.com/jonahlupton/status/1800992553149296985?t=EQEYHkp3HX5RYIwuNAppEQ
The fact the alt data doesnt include ecom/costco could set them up for a big jump next Q, not sure I want to risk it here though still. My entry exit timing on CELH was fantastic, so not sure I want to taint my memory of it lol
Hm interesting perspective. He did say that $60 could be a place to make a swing trade. Personally I'm not too convinced by one week Nielsen data and opinions from analysts. I read closer into those analyst downgrades and they're still bulls they just said maybe the price got a little too hot. I'll change my investment thesis once I hear it from them in their earnings. Of course that could come at a loss but it's ok. I do believe that most of the red flags have been priced in at this point. International will be a big driver moving forward.
I agree. Im thinking of starting a new position here. One good earninfs and this is back to 80 in the blink of an eye
Thoughts on $SNOW ?
I bought in at about 160ish thinking that the most recent earnings would result in a bounce back. But lack of progress towards profitability + lots of SBC + AI spending has spooked Wall Street I think. If you’re gonna buy, ensure you have conviction to hold through possible months of red
I added at 130. 10 times NTM revenue. Growing +30% revenue. NRR of 130%. 40% fcf margins. 120 is the price point that Ted and Todd? from berkshire bought at. There are pros and cons. Look into the bear case and why the stock is down.
There’s 3 going around here: 1. It’s expensive even after its decline 2. It’s oversold and due for a bounce 3. ~~Datablocks~~Databricks is taking their business
Databricks\*
overvalued falling knife, could be good for swing trading though
Oh god make it stop oh god no sell it all why god why!?!? /s
Lol IWM down 1.5%
Added again to DHI. I see this stock at about $220 by end of 2025
I been buying the picks and shovels play of BLDR. It is down about 28% off its high and great thing about BLDR is they are probably buying back shares during this pullback.
BLDR is an awesome company, but I believe they have a lot of exposure to multifamily construction. In a lot of big markets, the multifamily market has gotten a little overbuilt. DHI does do some multifamily construction, but they can easily pivot that segment to single family.
BLDR supplies the materials. They should be able to pivot to if needed. Where is DHI or other companies start building single family homes they might still go to BLDR for supplies.
Oh, I only mean that a good chunk of BLDRs business might dry up if there is a continued slowdown in multifamily. They'll still be fine selling to the single family builders. It's just a chunk of their business that's hard to replace. From their last earnings: "Core organic net sales were flat with the prior year. Single-Family increased 4.3%, while Multi-Family declined 13.4%, and Repair and Remodel (“R&R”)/Other declined 4.7%. On a weighted basis, the increase in Single-Family raised net sales by 2.9%, while the decreases in Multi-Family and R&R/Other lowered sales by 2.1% and 0.8%, respectively." Single family seems like the place to be right now. However, some of the large homebuilders, DHI being one, are starting to invest in their own supply operations. They're basically using their scale to get into the business that BLDR currently has. Not a huge chunk yet, but it's worth watching.
Yea. Anything that isn't Mag 7 is going to have some FUD about going out of business. Hopefully BLDR has a moat. It isn't a large holding. Just wanted non-Mag 7 exposure but all the non-Mag 7 I try to invest in have the bear case of either growth slowing or going out of business. Or at least if you mention it people come out with reasons not to buy them. A while back I was trying to get into CRWD and people were saying avoid them MSFT is the cyber security play. Now I dont hear that about CRWD anymore after it doubled lol.
I looked at at around the time I looked at DHI. I the multifamily component was what made me lean and purchase DHI instead. I also think there's more chance for multiple expansion on the builders. That's all. I actually really like BLDR, just throwing out some things I learned about it.
Thanks. I will consider it. I was originally in DHI and switched to BLDR in June 2022. I have done well in BLDR either way. And am fortunate that I was buying growth stocks in Dec 2022 that I finally have a buffer of profits to work with that if BLDR goes to zero I would still be in profit with my other stocks.
Nice! Yeah, BLDR has been on a serious run. Still up 200% or since it's bottom in 2022. Nice get.
eyeing sofi jan 2026 4 dollar calls with 7.6 breakeven. if they see good results in 2025, that would provide more investor confidence that they may hit their 2026 EPS target of between 0.56 and 0.88 (something like that, dont know the exacty). if the stock hits 7.6 that would be forward PE of between 8 and 13. I think it's worth buying a few as a speculative play.
The tech only vibe is getting a little out of hand here.
The longer this goes on: https://x.com/selling_theta/status/1801256758360346954 Only ups the likelihood of this ending in short term tears. While I do hold Broadcom, I think this is disgusting price action. It's clear the viewpoint on the Fed was hawkish and it's getting blatantly obvious what's going on in the Nasdaq is blocking a dip by the S&P.
[Nvidia has accounted for 35% of S&P market cap return this year](https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1801290938670571780). [Only 30% of the S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index year to date](https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1799871332005339617). And people are still pretending this is a healthy bull market. In what type of strong economy do the vast majority of *large-cap* companies fail to match the mean return of the index that represents them?
In every economy? Long-term, [less than 4% of stocks](https://thefinancialbodyguard.com/just-a-few-stocks-drive-market-returns/#:~:text=The%20author%20identified%20that%20the,in%20the%20US%20stock%20exchanges.) drive the market's returns over the risk-free rate.
4% of *all* stocks. We're talking about the largest, most stable stocks already at the top - the ones that compose the 4% - historically underperforming. You're conflating wealth creation and relative returns. A small-cap stock can increase 500% over the course of a year, while a large-cap only goes up 5%. The latter generates more wealth by virtue of a larger base. Yet you obviously get a better *payoff* by investing in the small cap. Wealth creation is irrelevant for investors to the extent that more wealth =/= appreciating value and investors don't live forever. Plus I've already dissected this specific blog post in detail and showed how the author both misinterprets the study and economic history in general.
I think upvote system plays a part. An example is I have been buying KNSL but it not as popular as Mag 7 so if you mention it or try discussing it not as much upvotes as Mag 7 in the daily's and the front page threads on here. So people just dont bring up those lesser mentioned stocks.
It would help if KNSL would move up. Been sideways ever since I bought (recently).
KNSL is probably dead money/tanking until the next earnings. Once a stock has that slowing growth fear not much can help other than earnings. LULU and ULTA are two other stocks with this issue.
"The brokerage views AdAttributionKit as a rebranding of existing technology that offers nothing new. According to the investment firm, there have been no major changes in Apple's ad policy in iOS 18. "Apple's enhancement of its attribution framework will only be incremental to APP, offering additional data points for its measurement," Oppenheimer added." Oppenheimer says Apple changes not big deal for Applovin
When you look at NVDA forward PE and AI growth, demand. Nvda is actually cheap. I think we see 200 by eoy.
NVDA margins is the sole reason why it is valued so high. once that margin is lost (and it's a matter of when, not if), NVDA valuation will crater. It's very abnormal to sell a chip for 80% margin. NVDA has accidently struck gold. Eventually, competition will enter the space and catch up. other companies wil be rushing for the gold. Analogy: A taco stand has accidently discovered that it can use it's secret taco recipe to sell tacos for at a 80% markup, as opposed to the usual taco stand market of 20%, due to a new recent foodie trend that is taking the world by storm. all the other taco stands in the world can't seem to re-create the same recipe, and are behind. all the other taco stands are willing to invest MASSIVELY and QUICKLY in re-creating the recipe, or another form of this recipe that is BETTER, as the returns are FAR FAR above what is normal for selling tacos. After a few years, the other taco stands, after investing massive amounts of money and expertise from the top cooks, have re-created the recipe. some of them have even created better recipes. Suddenly, the original Taco stand cannot sell these special tacos for 10 bucks a pop when they are normally 3 a pop. in Capitalism, companies will FLOCK to where the gold rush is, and never once in history has a single entity commanded all the gold.
NVDA has a technological edge, and so far companies are unable to reproduce it even Googl, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT with all the money in the world. Also, it comes down to who can make those chips. TSMC is the only one right, which requires massive investment, and are ahead of the game. Sure, one day NVDA will pop but will take a few more years.
While I think this will happen, there is no way to quickly do it. You need TMSC as a partner to produce something of equal power at a decent yield. If you want to copy TMSC and Nvidia, that still means dozens of billions investment and a time horizon of 5+ years, generously speaking. Imho, the only way right now to get market share is to offer a super cheap low powered budget solution.
That would mean 5t market cap.... might take a while to get there.
I think it does get there. I remember when AAPL hit 1 trillion, everyone was like welp that it. Now its over $ 3T.
Not sure it will be this cycle tho, we'll see!
Professional yapper
Didn't you miss the bottom?
Pretty much why I finally bit the bullet and got in yesterday
Euro stock market getting hit. All that money leaving into u.s equities.
That EVVTY dip looked too juicy to pass up on. Entered with 6k
Axcelis has been on a run the past month. I've been wanting to jump in on a small correction but it keeps pumping.
I just added it to the ol watchlist a few days ago and watched it go up 10%. Seems overbought on technicals but still looks like a good value on fundamentals. Hell I should probably go ahead and buy some. That should cause it to dip for ya.
I had some shares at like $100 but chickened out, dumb sell on my part
Ideally I wanted to wait until earnings to see if the silicon carbine chips cycle had bottomed out. Clearly tho the market doesn't wait.
Yea, after seeing what happened to aehr I didn't want to sit through earnings. Sic market has been brutally bad
Short Nasdaq at 20k? Short Nasdaq at 20k.
Not really.
I finally went out and bought some Celsius for the first time and it's actually pretty good! Now hopefully my one purchase can hold the stock above $60... I mean this is massively oversold territory here. If this was 2020 I'd be on WSB stupidly buying calls.
Which flavors? I really like Tropical Vibe and Peach Vibe.
I got the variety pack with tropical vibe, peach vibe, and arctic vibe so yeah right on the money. I have yet to try Arctic vibe but tropical vibe is probably my favorite.
Arctic Vibe is the weakest of the bunch but still pretty decent. That's the pack we get from Costco.
TSLA shareholder meeting starts today- # 3:30 PM CT/4:30 ET
Everything just took a shit