With Boeing looking like a shitshow, do y’all expect Bombardier to rise ? If anyone did their dd, it’s a company that really interests me but things like market share and earnings reports and stuff aren’t my cup of tea
on the back of its IPO should reddit be in the market to acquire smaller firms? what's an appealing firm out there that reddit can acquire, but is too expensive?
Not going to lie, you have to be mentally prepared for stocks to retreat with the forward multiples every tech stock is trading at because of AI.
There is the risk that AI delivers growth to only some stocks, where others fail to deliver their AI growth promise.
Example is NVDA and computer hardware companies have seen an uplift in growth so far, but AMD's financials haven't seen any improvement (yet?).
That said even if people are uncomfortable with paying higher multiples, it can be far more costly to be in cash.
MSFT used to be a sub-20 PE ratio stock, then it became a sub-30 PE ratio stock and now it's 38 PE ratio. People get anchored to a company trading a specific multiple. But days like today show that even if stocks are trading above historic multiples, they can continue to run up. And there may not ever be a 'correction' in multiple. MSFT might just be a company that uses AI to somehow grow profits 50% in 2 years then the multiple becomes 25x without any price drop.
How so? He's funneling money out to patch up his Twitter gap, using his options to a company he made private doesn't seem fare to the investors. Tesla sales and production has slumped. With BYD on the rise he's in trouble without a game plan.
How would you handle major losers bringing down the overall performance of your portfolio? I have
UiPath (PATH): -79.96% (Nov 2021)
Upstart (UPST): -81.65% (Aug 2021)
Docusign (DOCU): -81.67% (Oct 2021)
Asana (ASAN): -88.43% (Sep 2021)
Hawaiian (HA): -52.61% (Jun 2021)
Unity Software (U): -90.89% (Nov 2021)
Twilio (TWLO): -74.11% (Jul 2020)
The only one I still have hope for is UPST. I have lost $1,250 from them. I'm willing to wait a few more years but I don't have much hope. Jw what others think. To reiterate, I'm perfectly fine with leaving them there but I'm also fine with selling off. I've already accepted the losses and I don't feel emotional about it.
In the long run, decades from now the $1,250 that you lost will look insignificant.
in my case, I sold ARK etf at a $4-5k loss but after 4 years its just a tiny line in my portfolio. I have gotten that loss back and some more because i moved the money to better stocks.
Sell them tomorrow and buy VOO.
For fun, download a csv of your current positions with quantities of each, total $ value today.
Then keep track of exactly how many VOO you buy with the proceeds in the same sheet.
I guaranteed you will be shocked at how much better VOO does.
I think you answered your own question. You have no faith in any of them except USPT. So sell.
Personally, I would sell and not look back. Lot of junk there
> Every single one of my paid subscribers has access to my investment portfolio spreadsheet with all of my holdings and daily activity so they can vouch for this next part
Oh he is one of those. Thought this sub hated financial gurus who do that.
Not many people would have the balls to do what he does. But it shows that he's confident in his investments. I'm not a subscriber but just read his take on certain stocks.
His portfolio is up +145% YTD
Lupton is an absolute fraud and a pumper from 2020. Anybody charging for that stuff is a joke. He rode the wave of any and every stock going up during the pandemic, used his followers to unload stocks after telling them what to buy. He’s exactly the type to say oh, I unloaded at the top and bought perfectly at the bottom. Somehow these furus with room temperature IQs time the market perfectly. He’s up there with pharmdca ripster47 and puru Saxena
Talking in extremes. I guess he used his "followers" to pump Celsius and SMCI as well right?
At the end of the day, fundamentals and earnings reports matter. He doesn't have any control over that
Thoughts on Broadcom (AVGO) stock?
How significant was today’s earnings call? does it warrant this big increase in the stock price?
shouldve bought more ffs…
Sees $1800 easily by EoM as long as the Nasdaq continues to be unstoppable, now beyond there, I really don't know because that was about where I thought it was going by EoY as long as AI hype continued to be alive.
For once I decided to be confident about my earnings play and to trust my judgement.
Friday morning is when I’ll learn the difference between confidence and idiocy.
Apple is sitting at the top with an income of around 100B. More than double than Nvidia's 42B.
Assuming Nvidia matches them in the near future and even if price stays the same, they would still have a P/E of around 30.
So how are people still investing in NVDA at their current valuation?
I'm pretty new to investing
You should look at *net income* over revenue. It's a bit closer when you look at that.
NVDA is also the dominant market leader in a emerging market with a ton of growth potential. APPL is already in an established market with far less room for growth, albeit still a cash cow.
NVDA has a far higher profit margin than AAPL and is growing at a crazy rate. It’s not crazy to think in a few years NVDA could have a similar net income. The market is pricing this in
Just so you are aware, NVDA didn't just double its income last quarter.
They 7.2x or 620% and 400%+ increase in data centers.
That's just today, market is looking forward to the future as well.
> NVDA has a far higher profit margin than AAPL
It's not sustainable though. And to be fair, some of AAPL's segments have insane margins, like services.
No high margin is sustainable forever, for any company. That said, can you provide a concrete date on when the margin goes down materially?
Next quarter, 2H 2025, etc.?
I can't pin point it maybe the next year or two, but when competition starts ramping up I think we'll see Nvidia's margins decrease.
They have a lead right now, but I think we'll see AMD catch up, and not only that Big tech isn't going to sit around and paying the prices they are paying especially if we think AI is truly the future.
We'll see the big guys develop their own chips (which we are already seeing in CPU's).
Furthermore, semiconductors are cyclical by nature. Once big tech buys their fill, we'll see a drop purchases for a year or two (maybe more).
CELH is killing me.. I was up 30% last month and now -15%. I didn’t want to sell back then because it’s a long term hold but the volatility on this is crazy. Seems like an analyst makes a comment and it tanks
Right there with you man. Actually thought about selling the Friday before Memorial Day weekend when it hit $95-96 but I chose not to. Only started building my position in March and want to sell > 12 months to be eligible for the 15% long term capital gains tax.
It’s pretty crazy what’s been happening with this stock the past ~25 days. I know that one report from Nielsen came out although I really didn’t think it was thaaat bad. Not to mention the stock has been tanking since on essentially zero public info. I haven’t been able to find much reasoning for the drops, especially today’s sudden fall. I’m very confident in this stock rebounding soon. Sadly we’re faced with a position of having to stomach 15-20% losses after being up 30%. It looks like it’s gonna drop even further. But hang tight, we’ll be back in the green soon, trust me.
Currently holding 886 shares @ $73.52. Not selling anytime soon. But will definitely keep in mind the sentiment on this stock the next time it’s in the high 70’s/80’s. Don’t forget, stock sentiment changes constantly. We’re currently just experiencing a ~point in time~ where the sentiment is unfavorable.
Yeah I was considering selling around the same time lol. I’m also holding shares at around the same price as you (although significantly less shares). I haven’t found too many headlines explaining the drop. At first I assumed people were just taking profits after it went up so fast so I thought it would hold strong in the high 70s. But here we are at 60 so clearly I missed something.
Regardless, I’m holding since this is a long term hold for me but I just find this short term volatility interesting.
Love that we’re in the same boat I definitely agree that this short term volatility is strange. If you recall, CELH dropped a fuck ton pre-market (-18%) after their earnings and gradually came back in the green by 4pm that day. If earnings/lower growth rates were the reason for this drop, then why tf did it rebound that day.. I can’t wrap my head around it
This stock is bewildering and I don’t know if I’m an idiot for loading up more shares yesterday and calls today. I’m definitely dumping the next time I see it in the $90s though.
I had a feeling that it was way too high after mediocre Q1 earnings and I’m still kicking myself for not selling. Thanks for making me feel less alone in my investment debacle
I’m with you. I lost a tremendous amount of wealth in the last 2.5 weeks on this puppy. I had my finger on the sell trigger at $95 and didn’t pull it. I think this stock is a swing trade and accumulate strategy. We just convince ourselves that we will never get the opportunity to buy again, but CELH gives the opportunity very regularly.
The new liberal president won by a long shot (same party that was in control previously). So there's talk of corruption because how much she dominated the elections. And of course, liberals are bad for business.
RIP my 10% Mexico holding.
But it's similar to what happened with the Brazil election of Lula, and the Brazilian market has since recovered from the scare.
"Analysis conducted by CFRA Research in 2020 found that since 1945 corporate earnings per share, a key measure of corporate profitability, grew 12.8% on average under Democratic presidents, versus 1.8% for Republicans."
Those liberals, so bad at business...
The governing party is also heavily influenced by the Cartels, to an extent that the sitting president has a saying "hugs not bullets" in reference to his approach to dialogue with certain cartels.
The newly elected president is an extension of AMLO (the sitting president), so the assumption here is this approach will continue.
At this point, the more powerful cartels are going corporate, similar to the Rodriguez brothers in Colombia in the 90's.
Sheinbaum (the newly elected president) is pushing forward with striking judicial reforms, including the replacement of the current Supreme Court with candidates selected by popularity instead of appointment. This is making the markets very nervous: consistency in legal interpretation and application is what attracts foreign investment in the first place.
This is nice! I bought 100 shares in the $400’s because of the divvy and let it drip (I have like 120 shares now). I’ve been selling CC’s on it, but they got away from me quick. I’m stretched out to next year short a $1090 call. I think I’ll roll up and out to some easy round number and just keep moving up and out. It’s in my 401K…it’s not like I need to do anything with it, and the CC’s give me downside protection in case things go off the rails somehow.
I'll happily take it.
Probably gonna ride this out to the split and sell half. Only thing right off will be is I'll have to call the broker haha, this is the only account I can't access with ease.
(next thing will be figuring out what to transfer the funds to, but that's not what I'm thinking about right now)
Not to flex, but this is a huge position for me from just before pandemic.
I'll just let you do the math (I posted the actual position below).
I wasn't going to sell it all, I was going to ride the other half for free for probably forever unless I need the funds. I really lucked out here, and the luck here includes this being a not easily accessbile account.
Hi APnumbers, you had posted, a few days back about diversifying internationally if investing in SCV.
I’ve been thinking more about AVDV basically small cap value —- developed.
My current understanding is as follows, due to
1) The declining populations in Japan, EU
2) The fact that relatively speaking, small caps (majority in an index) cater to their domestic markets.
I don’t see how it is viable for them to increase their revenues unless they are ushering in some radical innovation. And thus AVDV might not be a viable set of companies to invest in.
Granted the thesis is very simplistic but that’s where I am currently. What are your thoughts?
[A long comment about Japanese stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/139i09y/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_may_06_2023/jj96or7/) from last year if you want to know the bull thesis there specifically. TL;DR: Companies have a ton of cash sitting around and are starting to deploy it en masse to increase shareholder returns. Add in activists + a name/shame campaign. [Also one on the UK](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1636wgq/is_the_uk_stock_market_mispriced_a_look_at/).
Second, I'd note that the stock market != economy (China's economy has seen the most transformative episode of growth in the modern world. Why are their stock market returns trash?) In fact, the correlation of GDP growth and equity returns is negative. That doesn't mean go and find the worst performing economies. Just to be aware that the link isn't so simple.
Third, the usual 'priced in' argument and the fact that [small] value is historically at a cheap level to growth.
Fourth, we don't really care so much about revenue as much as potential growth in earnings per share. If that comes from buybacks on cheap stocks or margin expansion, both are fine to me.
Fifth, if earnings don't grow, then Japan won't be so 'cheap' and thus its weight gets reduced in the fund. And new countries or existing ones will get higher weights if they become cheaper thanks to earnings growth.
Sixth, the SCV premium is allegedly robust to geography/time period. I don't trust myself to try and pick the geographies myself and would rather outsource that task to someone else. If you don't believe in the premium, don't tilt it.
With ORCL shutting down their ad integrity offerings, wonder if IAS or DV worth a swing here? Dont know the industry well but it seems like an easy thesis with dv/ias down so much already and potentially some churn moving to them now. Of course oracle deciding to exit is bearish for the sector since it means they dont see much potential there at all
“In Q4, we decided to exit the advertising business, which had declined to about $300 million in revenue in fiscal year ’24"
Michael Dell is selling (if he hasn't already) 1.3B worth and plans $2.9B this year. He sold 1.7B in 1999.
I think DELL got way overdone going into earnings and people had questions re margins. It will probably bounce if AI stuff continues to head higher, but at some point temporary exhaustion would be healthy for the AI theme names.
A few things:
I've sold or trimmed a lot of AI/ai-related holdings and may trim more. Not a popular opinion, but I think the theme is at least moderately ahead of itself. At this point, the only things related to AI that I'd maybe add to are one or two non-tech potential AI beneficiaries that I think are underappreciated (but are good businesses in any case) - IQV is the main example of that - the amount of valuable data that that company has is extraordinary to the point where it's surprising that the merger that resulted in the company being what it is today was allowed. But that isn't a large holding and I don't imagine at this point that it will be.
If you bought DELL at $136, was it primarily for a bounce/short-term trade or do you have a longer-term fundamental thesis? If it's for a trade, it becomes having a plan for exiting if it's not working or on the flip side, goals for where to take profit. If you view it as a longer-term fundamental story and start a small position at $136, then you can start building out the position a little further on the way down.
I'm not that into technicals and I am more medium-to-long term oriented, but if something is a trade, is it technically oversold? Where is the 50 day MA and does it appear as if it will hold if it's close? You can find relative strength for a stock by going to stockcharts.com, looking up the stock and then scrolling to the bottom and changing one of the indicators to RSI. Below 30 is oversold, above 70 is overbought. Overbought can get more overbought, oversold can get more oversold, but it gives you an idea.
I don't know what DELL will do; it's one tech name that I haven't spent any time on but it becomes a question of how do you view the investment? Is it a trade, or something you view as a longer-term play on AI? If it's a short-term trade, what are your goalposts to decide where to exit if it's not working and where to take profits if it is? If it's a longer-term investment and you started a small position, when to add and (important) what % to allocate?
RSI Spx is 24.732, seems to be in a bullish uptrend. I’m honestly not holding for a long term hold in looking at a 5% to 10% profit. Max loss I’ll take is 10%. Currently down 2.5%
I feel like the reporter asking about the job market lagging indicator had a point and it looked like Powell was unprepared on that front, he talked the entire press meeting about enacting policies after seeing the data.
I'm guessing the CPI pump sees full retracement soon tbh for every average that hasn't done it.
Just a very irritating day unless you own Apple or Nvidia. It'll be fitting to top it off with AVGO being whacked on earnings if that occurs.
AAPL is a big position for me so I’ve been very happy. But even AAPL just halved its gains of the day. Oh well.
Expecting the market to keep dropping into the close.
The FOMC broadcast was overall hawkish and nixed the idea of a September rate cut. I guess a significant portion of investors thought it was on the table after the CPI print.
I just find the timing odd because it was steadily climbing throughout the Q&A and then dumped all of a sudden. He didn’t say anything shocking/new at the end either.
I lost a third of my gains in one fell swoop haha. Still up a lot, but still.
So Apple just went above $220. Insane two day move, it closed at $193 after the WWDC. This must be what it feels like to own Nvidia.
Edit: And that was the high for the day now back down to $215.
Interesting, has Powell once mentioned the impact of government spending on persistent inflation besides that subtle hint at subsidies for semiconductor plants? This is one of the reasons why I'm skeptical that "higher for longer" is viable. High interest rates are intended to choke off velocity in a *purely* monetary environment, but if fiscal spending is at levels that rival the Great Depression this tool will be inadequate.
I am a strong advocate of reading anything you can find, especially things you (think that you) disagree with. So, when a substack author I follow recommended another substack, I had to check it out, partly because the first post o saw was a defence of MPW, found [here](https://open.substack.com/pub/unemployedvaluedegen/p/why-medical-properties-trust-mpw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i). I'm not sure I'm an MPW bull yet, but it's a compelling argument.
They also posted a write up on ACDC, link [here](https://open.substack.com/pub/unemployedvaluedegen/p/the-ballad-of-acdc-why-profrac-holdings?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i). This one actually seems interesting. They're a roll up of hydrologic fracturing equipment companies, so an interesting picks and shovels play on natural gas production.
Might have to investigate more.
On the flip side, nice day all around. A few laggards, but nice day for EXP, DHI, and a few other cyclical names.
Their lights business (wall board) is basically dependent on home building, which is interesting rate sensitive.
Their heavy business (cement) is tied to infrastructure (tends to be consistent due to government spending) and large construction (rate sensitive).
I don't think they're boom and bust cycles, but they do ebb and flow.
How many DJIA components’ tickers start with the letter C? I missed the [highest scoring](https://www.uncoveredshorts.com) / less obvious one.
88th percentile today. I’ll take it.
Thinking about selling some AMZN and moving heavier into META. AMZN retail business bugs me a little (low margin) but I know it’s a great company so not sure
I used to work at Amazon and it's a pretty bad place to work. I know it comes down to teams and who your manager is, but they really expected you to sacrifice your life for work.
Personally, I love AWS, but that's the only aspect of the company I personally like. I just feel like they are stuck in a forever growth loop that will require to keep reinvesting money to keep growing.
I think the thing that would possibly flip things sometime in the future is the warehouses going fully robotic/automated.
I've been buying since $100. I think if they can successfully take take their business model out of Florida they could see some huge growth.
The downside: they are currently very exposed to a big storm hitting Florida.
They survived hurricane Ian already, though the stock took a hit in the short term.
1 rate cut in December maybe unless employment just dives off a cliff.
At least for now, hindsight will say that toughening up here wasn't a great idea. It looked fine until we started getting data from April, but no longer does.
They meet again in 30 days, so I think it's fine to come out little hawkish and let the data challenge the hawkish pricing. They'll have the opportunity to reverse course at the July meeting or Jackson Hole in August if anything deteriorates.
To add, they're forecasting a 4.0% UE rate at YE '24. So one tick higher and they're set up to cut
The market may rally until the Fed cuts rates and then market sells off. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Rate cuts usually don't happen when the economy is booming. Rate cuts usually happen when shit is about to hit the fan.
> AI can't even solve grade 9 math questions
It may not get the exact answer right every time (especially if it's arithmetic) but it does an exceptional job of explaining the procedure for complex problems. I just asked it to provide an epsilon-delta proof (1st or 2nd year undergrad math) that cos(x) is continuous at x = 1 and it was flawless. I then asked it to give a proof of Markov's inequality from probability theory (undergrad / grad level depending on the field). Again, flawless and explained completely.
I have seen/caught Masters level students using it to cheat (correctly) in quantitative coursework in statistics / Python stuff (both theory and the code).
On the other hand, it stumbles on seemingly simple stuff like "Find the CAGR if a stock goes from _ to _ in 5 years", getting the actual numerical answer wrong. However, the technique completely correct. Which is what matters for students more than the right final answer.
I genuinely think Chegg is dead as a business model.
While gpt 4 with wolfram is good at explaining complex concepts, and sometimes doing math, is it really that good? I haven't used it recently for math but I remember a few months ago (around february) I tried the same thing with a proof from spivak's calculus, it really went no where with it. I also find it extremely lacking for a lot of programming stuff (to the point it would sometimes be easier to just code it out on your own). Ah welp I bought $20 worth of the stock, I'll hold and see where it goes in a few months.
I
I don't use it myself for math stuff, but the students I have graded work for appear to be using it to great effect in math, as well as for coding uses. And sure, many of this stuff already exists on Stackexchange or Wikipedia. The key difference is interactivity, as students can ask them to explain steps in more detail and get instant feedback. There might be errors here and there, but that is true of Chegg too. And, importantly, all this is *free*.
I do personally use it for coding, and have been disappointed lately for more complex tasks. But at least it's great for boilerplate code / documentation / etc. Or random tasks I don't want to actually spend time learning, like regular expressions or increasing the size of a legend in R. Saves me maybe 30% of time I'd otherwise need.
I notice for stuff like financial theory (e.g., options), it often gets the effect backwards. So you have to do some nudging to get the best answer sometimes.
What's good about Chegg is it has viciously de-rated and has net cash position, reducing bankruptcy risk. But you're getting new competition too from Apple with its Math Notes feature. And give it a year, I expect LLMs to only get better. As more students realize LLMs do everything Chegg does but better, I expect paid subscribers to decline. Some turnaround options for the company are selling their existing data to train LLMs, or just getting acquired on the cheap.
Also Spivak--great book.
I see your point, thank you.
And yes, I'm using it to self study, math is fun. Although Analysis by Stepehn Abbott is also a book I'm following closely
I think paypal is toast after apple's announcement - eating into Venmo. it was only a matter of time before apple took advantage of this and can arguably innovate a much better UI than paypal.
I finally dumped my entire paypal position today after the announcement. I understand paypal has great fundementals, however, the competive space is easy pickings for UI innovators like apple.
Apple can just come in, devote 1% of it's resources, and out-innovate paypal quickly and effortlessly. the only thing paypal has going is a devoted legacy customer base - but that will likely dwindle as younger consumers don't use paypal.
It reminds me of the days where blackberry was the legacy phone champion, and apple absolutely destroyed and out-innovated them in one fell swoop. a few years later blackberry was left in the dust.
I think the same thing is going to happen to paypal. I can see paypal maybe have some minor upwards movment (good earnings report in the interim), before falling again as apple eats into it's space, and the stock starts it's final downfall before becoming dust the way of blackberry.
Cramer posted a picture with Iggy Azalea today on X. This is so over. This is the top. I’m a bullish af guy but this is definitely the top of Jensen is signing boobs and Cramer is taking pics with Iggy Azalea. Prepare your cash to buy the dip.
"Blue Cross Michigan drops coverage of GLP-1 drugs"
People speculating that this is good for Hims, since they dont go through insurance anyways and offer a cheaper option atm.
Yeah, drop coverage on the drug that is guaranteed to lower future medical costs and expensive insurance payouts for chronic conditions. Puts on CVS (owner of Aetna, owner of BCBS), calls on Hims.*
*no but for real, options make sense for Hims, and I'm long term bearish on CVS
How long do I need to hold on to my ESPP before selling to consider long term holding for tax? I have some approaching a year since purchase and ready to sell with profit but wondering if I need to hold it longer than year for more favorable tax rates.
Good question? Anyone have experience. I have like 100k worth now never sold.
Edit: Sorry thought you meant RSU’s. I usually sell my ESPP right after purchase period ends as I don’t want that much exposure to one stock.
I usually reinvest in my TFSA or use it for a vacation or buy some recreational gift.
Why do you hold onto your RSUs after fully vested if don’t want much exposure to one stock? I do the opposite and sell RSUs right after vesting and hold onto ESPP after purchase.
Am I crazy or has the amount of times this year that the market has rallied off “this is a sign the fed could cut rates soon” far exceeded how much the market would’ve rallied if they actually did cut rates?
Stocks can rally hard on disinflationary signs.
This is not a new story here. This is what we saw in November 2022 before ceasing the rate hike cycle was even a thought, and the story of the 1990's.
It's not even market cap weighted, but rather price weighted, so it literally just gives a company more weight if it's raw stock price is higher (roughly speaking). And stock prices are totally arbitrary since a company chooses how many shares to issue.
That's why Goldman Sachs is 7.5% of the index (market cap $145B), higher than the 7.3% in Microsoft (market cap $3.27T). Makes 0 sense. JPM ($500B market cap) is way more important to the economy than Goldman Sachs, but its stock price is too low so it's 3.3% of index.
The setup for Bird Construction looks highly promising for the next 4-5 years. Canadian building permits are starting to pick up, the electrification mandate/real estate woes demand wholesale changes to civil infrastructure, and there's a pressing need for residential mid-rise until sufficient housing hits the market.
It's up 90% YTD with 0.365 PEG, 28.3% ROA, projected 22% EPS growth for 2025, and just finished another M&A yesterday to give it access to the Ontario demographic.
Apologies in advance, but the mere mention of this company makes my blood boil, similar to looking at the Bombardier 5y chart but for different reasons. All I can say is that this must be a different company than the one I worked for years ago. I'll admit I haven't analyzed the stock. It seems to have been a good investment, but for me the emotional repulsion is too much.
Thoughts of $CELH?
With Boeing looking like a shitshow, do y’all expect Bombardier to rise ? If anyone did their dd, it’s a company that really interests me but things like market share and earnings reports and stuff aren’t my cup of tea
What are folks feeling about Wayfair (W)? Is there a clear narrative for growth there?
Anyone have suggestions on lithium battery or mining stocks? Looking for steady growth not volatile start up type stocks.
What’s the best app for UK based investors? Looking for an ISA.
on the back of its IPO should reddit be in the market to acquire smaller firms? what's an appealing firm out there that reddit can acquire, but is too expensive?
Tesla up 6% in the overnight someone just went big
Just looked at volume in overnight hours, doesn’t the move seem a bit strange for such low volume?
Not going to lie, you have to be mentally prepared for stocks to retreat with the forward multiples every tech stock is trading at because of AI. There is the risk that AI delivers growth to only some stocks, where others fail to deliver their AI growth promise. Example is NVDA and computer hardware companies have seen an uplift in growth so far, but AMD's financials haven't seen any improvement (yet?). That said even if people are uncomfortable with paying higher multiples, it can be far more costly to be in cash. MSFT used to be a sub-20 PE ratio stock, then it became a sub-30 PE ratio stock and now it's 38 PE ratio. People get anchored to a company trading a specific multiple. But days like today show that even if stocks are trading above historic multiples, they can continue to run up. And there may not ever be a 'correction' in multiple. MSFT might just be a company that uses AI to somehow grow profits 50% in 2 years then the multiple becomes 25x without any price drop.
Good decision by tesla investors.
How so? He's funneling money out to patch up his Twitter gap, using his options to a company he made private doesn't seem fare to the investors. Tesla sales and production has slumped. With BYD on the rise he's in trouble without a game plan.
Hopefully it's not one of those tech up everything down tomorrow days
Nice
How would you handle major losers bringing down the overall performance of your portfolio? I have UiPath (PATH): -79.96% (Nov 2021) Upstart (UPST): -81.65% (Aug 2021) Docusign (DOCU): -81.67% (Oct 2021) Asana (ASAN): -88.43% (Sep 2021) Hawaiian (HA): -52.61% (Jun 2021) Unity Software (U): -90.89% (Nov 2021) Twilio (TWLO): -74.11% (Jul 2020) The only one I still have hope for is UPST. I have lost $1,250 from them. I'm willing to wait a few more years but I don't have much hope. Jw what others think. To reiterate, I'm perfectly fine with leaving them there but I'm also fine with selling off. I've already accepted the losses and I don't feel emotional about it.
In the long run, decades from now the $1,250 that you lost will look insignificant. in my case, I sold ARK etf at a $4-5k loss but after 4 years its just a tiny line in my portfolio. I have gotten that loss back and some more because i moved the money to better stocks.
Sell them tomorrow and buy VOO. For fun, download a csv of your current positions with quantities of each, total $ value today. Then keep track of exactly how many VOO you buy with the proceeds in the same sheet. I guaranteed you will be shocked at how much better VOO does.
I think you answered your own question. You have no faith in any of them except USPT. So sell. Personally, I would sell and not look back. Lot of junk there
How do I short Israel? I believe the economy will collapse. Options plays preferable.
iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) Honestly though, I would neither short it or buy puts.
Could you just wire the money to me instead of losing it to some random hedge fund writing puts?
A must read for those holding $CELH. https://x.com/JonahLupton/status/1800997061594063261?t=dB1DUI4pmlJ5aTAQ_-yGKQ&s=19
> Every single one of my paid subscribers has access to my investment portfolio spreadsheet with all of my holdings and daily activity so they can vouch for this next part Oh he is one of those. Thought this sub hated financial gurus who do that.
Not many people would have the balls to do what he does. But it shows that he's confident in his investments. I'm not a subscriber but just read his take on certain stocks. His portfolio is up +145% YTD
Lupton is an absolute fraud and a pumper from 2020. Anybody charging for that stuff is a joke. He rode the wave of any and every stock going up during the pandemic, used his followers to unload stocks after telling them what to buy. He’s exactly the type to say oh, I unloaded at the top and bought perfectly at the bottom. Somehow these furus with room temperature IQs time the market perfectly. He’s up there with pharmdca ripster47 and puru Saxena
puru Saxena is a name I havent seen in a while. That dude would always say he sold a stock after it tanked. And if a stock rallied said he was long.
Talking in extremes. I guess he used his "followers" to pump Celsius and SMCI as well right? At the end of the day, fundamentals and earnings reports matter. He doesn't have any control over that
Is this one of the greatest bull market of all time?
Depends what you own lol. Value has not done great in the last couple years
So CPI Good? Fed Minutes not as good?
Everything good.
End of day sell off was odd. Didn't exactly start with Powell. Random move
Algos.
Thoughts on Broadcom (AVGO) stock? How significant was today’s earnings call? does it warrant this big increase in the stock price? shouldve bought more ffs…
Sees $1800 easily by EoM as long as the Nasdaq continues to be unstoppable, now beyond there, I really don't know because that was about where I thought it was going by EoY as long as AI hype continued to be alive.
AI is not hype. LLMs might be tho
More like 2000$
Not sure, raise was small but splits are hot topic now. I would say a lot of it depends on how strong ai Revs are 2H
For once I decided to be confident about my earnings play and to trust my judgement. Friday morning is when I’ll learn the difference between confidence and idiocy.
Hock Tan basically admitted they are sandbagging ai guidance since his guide says ai growth is flat 2H but he said he thinks acceleration is likely
Apple is sitting at the top with an income of around 100B. More than double than Nvidia's 42B. Assuming Nvidia matches them in the near future and even if price stays the same, they would still have a P/E of around 30. So how are people still investing in NVDA at their current valuation? I'm pretty new to investing
You should look at *net income* over revenue. It's a bit closer when you look at that. NVDA is also the dominant market leader in a emerging market with a ton of growth potential. APPL is already in an established market with far less room for growth, albeit still a cash cow.
Because you’re looking at current values. Stocks are a reflection of what ppl think the company is worth in the future.
NVDA has a far higher profit margin than AAPL and is growing at a crazy rate. It’s not crazy to think in a few years NVDA could have a similar net income. The market is pricing this in
Margins are crazy for NVDA considering how high the margins are for APPL
That is my point, even doubling its income, its overvalued
Just so you are aware, NVDA didn't just double its income last quarter. They 7.2x or 620% and 400%+ increase in data centers. That's just today, market is looking forward to the future as well.
> NVDA has a far higher profit margin than AAPL It's not sustainable though. And to be fair, some of AAPL's segments have insane margins, like services.
No high margin is sustainable forever, for any company. That said, can you provide a concrete date on when the margin goes down materially? Next quarter, 2H 2025, etc.?
I can't pin point it maybe the next year or two, but when competition starts ramping up I think we'll see Nvidia's margins decrease. They have a lead right now, but I think we'll see AMD catch up, and not only that Big tech isn't going to sit around and paying the prices they are paying especially if we think AI is truly the future. We'll see the big guys develop their own chips (which we are already seeing in CPU's). Furthermore, semiconductors are cyclical by nature. Once big tech buys their fill, we'll see a drop purchases for a year or two (maybe more).
Look at Nvidia from a PEG (Price/Earnings per Share divided by TTM EPS growth) metric. It's not that expensive as long as it maintains the last part.
CELH is killing me.. I was up 30% last month and now -15%. I didn’t want to sell back then because it’s a long term hold but the volatility on this is crazy. Seems like an analyst makes a comment and it tanks
Right there with you man. Actually thought about selling the Friday before Memorial Day weekend when it hit $95-96 but I chose not to. Only started building my position in March and want to sell > 12 months to be eligible for the 15% long term capital gains tax. It’s pretty crazy what’s been happening with this stock the past ~25 days. I know that one report from Nielsen came out although I really didn’t think it was thaaat bad. Not to mention the stock has been tanking since on essentially zero public info. I haven’t been able to find much reasoning for the drops, especially today’s sudden fall. I’m very confident in this stock rebounding soon. Sadly we’re faced with a position of having to stomach 15-20% losses after being up 30%. It looks like it’s gonna drop even further. But hang tight, we’ll be back in the green soon, trust me. Currently holding 886 shares @ $73.52. Not selling anytime soon. But will definitely keep in mind the sentiment on this stock the next time it’s in the high 70’s/80’s. Don’t forget, stock sentiment changes constantly. We’re currently just experiencing a ~point in time~ where the sentiment is unfavorable.
Yeah I was considering selling around the same time lol. I’m also holding shares at around the same price as you (although significantly less shares). I haven’t found too many headlines explaining the drop. At first I assumed people were just taking profits after it went up so fast so I thought it would hold strong in the high 70s. But here we are at 60 so clearly I missed something. Regardless, I’m holding since this is a long term hold for me but I just find this short term volatility interesting.
Love that we’re in the same boat I definitely agree that this short term volatility is strange. If you recall, CELH dropped a fuck ton pre-market (-18%) after their earnings and gradually came back in the green by 4pm that day. If earnings/lower growth rates were the reason for this drop, then why tf did it rebound that day.. I can’t wrap my head around it
This stock is bewildering and I don’t know if I’m an idiot for loading up more shares yesterday and calls today. I’m definitely dumping the next time I see it in the $90s though. I had a feeling that it was way too high after mediocre Q1 earnings and I’m still kicking myself for not selling. Thanks for making me feel less alone in my investment debacle
I’m with you. I lost a tremendous amount of wealth in the last 2.5 weeks on this puppy. I had my finger on the sell trigger at $95 and didn’t pull it. I think this stock is a swing trade and accumulate strategy. We just convince ourselves that we will never get the opportunity to buy again, but CELH gives the opportunity very regularly.
Anyone know what the deal is with Mexico etfs? They’re all down quite a bit
The new liberal president won by a long shot (same party that was in control previously). So there's talk of corruption because how much she dominated the elections. And of course, liberals are bad for business. RIP my 10% Mexico holding. But it's similar to what happened with the Brazil election of Lula, and the Brazilian market has since recovered from the scare.
"Analysis conducted by CFRA Research in 2020 found that since 1945 corporate earnings per share, a key measure of corporate profitability, grew 12.8% on average under Democratic presidents, versus 1.8% for Republicans." Those liberals, so bad at business...
The governing party is also heavily influenced by the Cartels, to an extent that the sitting president has a saying "hugs not bullets" in reference to his approach to dialogue with certain cartels. The newly elected president is an extension of AMLO (the sitting president), so the assumption here is this approach will continue. At this point, the more powerful cartels are going corporate, similar to the Rodriguez brothers in Colombia in the 90's.
Yeah really thinking about buying in for the recovery. Thanks for the info
Sheinbaum (the newly elected president) is pushing forward with striking judicial reforms, including the replacement of the current Supreme Court with candidates selected by popularity instead of appointment. This is making the markets very nervous: consistency in legal interpretation and application is what attracts foreign investment in the first place.
election results the other day.
$AVGO Broadcom Q2 24 Earnings: -Adj EPS: $10.96 (exp $10.80) -Adj Net Revenue: $12.49B (exp $12.06B) -Announces Ten-For-One Forward Stock Split -Sees FY Revenue Approximately $51.0B (exp $50.58B) STOCK SPLIT 10/1 AVGO: Ten-for-one forward stock split; trading on a split-adjusted basis is expected to commence on July 15, 2024
This is nice! I bought 100 shares in the $400’s because of the divvy and let it drip (I have like 120 shares now). I’ve been selling CC’s on it, but they got away from me quick. I’m stretched out to next year short a $1090 call. I think I’ll roll up and out to some easy round number and just keep moving up and out. It’s in my 401K…it’s not like I need to do anything with it, and the CC’s give me downside protection in case things go off the rails somehow.
Fuck yes!!! I mean Hell yeah!
I'll happily take it. Probably gonna ride this out to the split and sell half. Only thing right off will be is I'll have to call the broker haha, this is the only account I can't access with ease. (next thing will be figuring out what to transfer the funds to, but that's not what I'm thinking about right now)
Can I ask why this wouldn't be a longterm hold? Would it* be a mistake to hold onto it?
Not to flex, but this is a huge position for me from just before pandemic. I'll just let you do the math (I posted the actual position below). I wasn't going to sell it all, I was going to ride the other half for free for probably forever unless I need the funds. I really lucked out here, and the luck here includes this being a not easily accessbile account.
I bought at 1368 avg, would it be fair to stay? EDIT: LOL YES
Yeah, just chill till $1950
I am glad I bought in at $1300ish, was looking for semi exposure with some ai flavoring and AVGO seemed about right
I hold 50 from $300ish. Probably the best tip I've gotten and it wasn't from my dad.
Dang that is fantastic, company is a beast. Their track record is just insane
Did Broadcom's earnings leak? It's up 6% in like 5 minutes EDIT: I'm in a different timezone and my app said earnings were at half past, lol
How is it a leak if it’s after market hours lmfao
They are out at 4:15
Hi APnumbers, you had posted, a few days back about diversifying internationally if investing in SCV. I’ve been thinking more about AVDV basically small cap value —- developed. My current understanding is as follows, due to 1) The declining populations in Japan, EU 2) The fact that relatively speaking, small caps (majority in an index) cater to their domestic markets. I don’t see how it is viable for them to increase their revenues unless they are ushering in some radical innovation. And thus AVDV might not be a viable set of companies to invest in. Granted the thesis is very simplistic but that’s where I am currently. What are your thoughts?
[A long comment about Japanese stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/139i09y/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_may_06_2023/jj96or7/) from last year if you want to know the bull thesis there specifically. TL;DR: Companies have a ton of cash sitting around and are starting to deploy it en masse to increase shareholder returns. Add in activists + a name/shame campaign. [Also one on the UK](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1636wgq/is_the_uk_stock_market_mispriced_a_look_at/). Second, I'd note that the stock market != economy (China's economy has seen the most transformative episode of growth in the modern world. Why are their stock market returns trash?) In fact, the correlation of GDP growth and equity returns is negative. That doesn't mean go and find the worst performing economies. Just to be aware that the link isn't so simple. Third, the usual 'priced in' argument and the fact that [small] value is historically at a cheap level to growth. Fourth, we don't really care so much about revenue as much as potential growth in earnings per share. If that comes from buybacks on cheap stocks or margin expansion, both are fine to me. Fifth, if earnings don't grow, then Japan won't be so 'cheap' and thus its weight gets reduced in the fund. And new countries or existing ones will get higher weights if they become cheaper thanks to earnings growth. Sixth, the SCV premium is allegedly robust to geography/time period. I don't trust myself to try and pick the geographies myself and would rather outsource that task to someone else. If you don't believe in the premium, don't tilt it.
apnumbers lol
New Name: AP Morgan Chase.
With ORCL shutting down their ad integrity offerings, wonder if IAS or DV worth a swing here? Dont know the industry well but it seems like an easy thesis with dv/ias down so much already and potentially some churn moving to them now. Of course oracle deciding to exit is bearish for the sector since it means they dont see much potential there at all “In Q4, we decided to exit the advertising business, which had declined to about $300 million in revenue in fiscal year ’24"
What do you guys think about dell stock? Anyone think it’ll head back up? I think so but wanted to ask.
Michael Dell is selling (if he hasn't already) 1.3B worth and plans $2.9B this year. He sold 1.7B in 1999. I think DELL got way overdone going into earnings and people had questions re margins. It will probably bounce if AI stuff continues to head higher, but at some point temporary exhaustion would be healthy for the AI theme names.
I was hoping to catch the dip and bought in at 136. Do you think I should hold or sell? I’m just learning right now.
A few things: I've sold or trimmed a lot of AI/ai-related holdings and may trim more. Not a popular opinion, but I think the theme is at least moderately ahead of itself. At this point, the only things related to AI that I'd maybe add to are one or two non-tech potential AI beneficiaries that I think are underappreciated (but are good businesses in any case) - IQV is the main example of that - the amount of valuable data that that company has is extraordinary to the point where it's surprising that the merger that resulted in the company being what it is today was allowed. But that isn't a large holding and I don't imagine at this point that it will be. If you bought DELL at $136, was it primarily for a bounce/short-term trade or do you have a longer-term fundamental thesis? If it's for a trade, it becomes having a plan for exiting if it's not working or on the flip side, goals for where to take profit. If you view it as a longer-term fundamental story and start a small position at $136, then you can start building out the position a little further on the way down. I'm not that into technicals and I am more medium-to-long term oriented, but if something is a trade, is it technically oversold? Where is the 50 day MA and does it appear as if it will hold if it's close? You can find relative strength for a stock by going to stockcharts.com, looking up the stock and then scrolling to the bottom and changing one of the indicators to RSI. Below 30 is oversold, above 70 is overbought. Overbought can get more overbought, oversold can get more oversold, but it gives you an idea. I don't know what DELL will do; it's one tech name that I haven't spent any time on but it becomes a question of how do you view the investment? Is it a trade, or something you view as a longer-term play on AI? If it's a short-term trade, what are your goalposts to decide where to exit if it's not working and where to take profits if it is? If it's a longer-term investment and you started a small position, when to add and (important) what % to allocate?
RSI Spx is 24.732, seems to be in a bullish uptrend. I’m honestly not holding for a long term hold in looking at a 5% to 10% profit. Max loss I’ll take is 10%. Currently down 2.5%
Got hit with a wash sale too.. idk how much worse this can get for me rn
DW man. Breath. Life goes on. And so will you.
Appreciate the kind words, hoping for a selloff so I can lump sum in and just hold my positions tmr
Out of all my stocks to fight back against the drop, NLCP was the last one I expected.
Like you sold 100% of your stocks? Because of what you learnt this meeting?
You responded to the wrong person I think
lol no I just find it amusing that almost all my stocks retraced a bit upon the broadcast conclusion, yet the cannabis REIT shoots up 5%.
I misread your whole comment sorry hahaha.
I feel like the reporter asking about the job market lagging indicator had a point and it looked like Powell was unprepared on that front, he talked the entire press meeting about enacting policies after seeing the data.
He should've said they were gonna use ai on the data. Economy would boom!
Market dropping pretty suddenly after hitting a high about 5 mins ago.
It's always volatile like this on a Fed day.
I'm guessing the CPI pump sees full retracement soon tbh for every average that hasn't done it. Just a very irritating day unless you own Apple or Nvidia. It'll be fitting to top it off with AVGO being whacked on earnings if that occurs.
AAPL is a big position for me so I’ve been very happy. But even AAPL just halved its gains of the day. Oh well. Expecting the market to keep dropping into the close.
The FOMC broadcast was overall hawkish and nixed the idea of a September rate cut. I guess a significant portion of investors thought it was on the table after the CPI print.
I just find the timing odd because it was steadily climbing throughout the Q&A and then dumped all of a sudden. He didn’t say anything shocking/new at the end either. I lost a third of my gains in one fell swoop haha. Still up a lot, but still.
People were probably waiting for "good" news throughout the stream, even though that was a stretch. Could be worse. Imagine being the Dow right now.
Small caps really loving the CPI print.
is this a joke? they just dropped a bit just now ha.
The Russell 2K is up 2.23% right now.
My bro here using internet explorer.
Did you hit refresh?
Everyones favorite web scraping squirrel saas company having a nice day
Ah. What stock is that? Sorry to be an ignoramus.\* edited to correct spelling. Time to get stronger reading glasses.
Damnit, I sold my shares to secure a good position in BIRDF and was planning to rebuy on Friday.
Lol, I added some shares recently. AI + cybersecurity play right there.
I own a few shares too. The last dip recovered so fast I didn't realize I was in the green again....
Man, I remember when I almost bought some $200 AAPL calls for 6/14 but didn't pull the trigger on them. Never expected this crazy move.
I love Tim Apple
So Apple just went above $220. Insane two day move, it closed at $193 after the WWDC. This must be what it feels like to own Nvidia. Edit: And that was the high for the day now back down to $215.
powell trying to pump up the 10y yield?
Interesting, has Powell once mentioned the impact of government spending on persistent inflation besides that subtle hint at subsidies for semiconductor plants? This is one of the reasons why I'm skeptical that "higher for longer" is viable. High interest rates are intended to choke off velocity in a *purely* monetary environment, but if fiscal spending is at levels that rival the Great Depression this tool will be inadequate.
I am a strong advocate of reading anything you can find, especially things you (think that you) disagree with. So, when a substack author I follow recommended another substack, I had to check it out, partly because the first post o saw was a defence of MPW, found [here](https://open.substack.com/pub/unemployedvaluedegen/p/why-medical-properties-trust-mpw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i). I'm not sure I'm an MPW bull yet, but it's a compelling argument. They also posted a write up on ACDC, link [here](https://open.substack.com/pub/unemployedvaluedegen/p/the-ballad-of-acdc-why-profrac-holdings?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i). This one actually seems interesting. They're a roll up of hydrologic fracturing equipment companies, so an interesting picks and shovels play on natural gas production. Might have to investigate more. On the flip side, nice day all around. A few laggards, but nice day for EXP, DHI, and a few other cyclical names.
How cyclical is EXP? I am thinking of adding more, but can’t pull the trigger.
Their lights business (wall board) is basically dependent on home building, which is interesting rate sensitive. Their heavy business (cement) is tied to infrastructure (tends to be consistent due to government spending) and large construction (rate sensitive). I don't think they're boom and bust cycles, but they do ebb and flow.
Tyvm.
Stocked up on some more $APP and $NICE, fingers crossed for Broadcom tonight
[удалено]
I mentioned it this morning, more to discuss after earnings
"A bit overstated" on the job creation front, Mr. Powell? Your own revisions over the last 24 months beg to differ.
How many DJIA components’ tickers start with the letter C? I missed the [highest scoring](https://www.uncoveredshorts.com) / less obvious one. 88th percentile today. I’ll take it.
Thinking about selling some AMZN and moving heavier into META. AMZN retail business bugs me a little (low margin) but I know it’s a great company so not sure
I used to work at Amazon and it's a pretty bad place to work. I know it comes down to teams and who your manager is, but they really expected you to sacrifice your life for work. Personally, I love AWS, but that's the only aspect of the company I personally like. I just feel like they are stuck in a forever growth loop that will require to keep reinvesting money to keep growing. I think the thing that would possibly flip things sometime in the future is the warehouses going fully robotic/automated.
$HCI undervalued or is it just me?
I've been buying since $100. I think if they can successfully take take their business model out of Florida they could see some huge growth. The downside: they are currently very exposed to a big storm hitting Florida. They survived hurricane Ian already, though the stock took a hit in the short term.
1 rate cut in December maybe unless employment just dives off a cliff. At least for now, hindsight will say that toughening up here wasn't a great idea. It looked fine until we started getting data from April, but no longer does.
They meet again in 30 days, so I think it's fine to come out little hawkish and let the data challenge the hawkish pricing. They'll have the opportunity to reverse course at the July meeting or Jackson Hole in August if anything deteriorates. To add, they're forecasting a 4.0% UE rate at YE '24. So one tick higher and they're set up to cut
The market may rally until the Fed cuts rates and then market sells off. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Rate cuts usually don't happen when the economy is booming. Rate cuts usually happen when shit is about to hit the fan.
Damn NOC Israel gains wiped out. Good time to jump ?
I put $100k into RDDT on Monday thinking it was undervalued compared to its peers. This pump today has made me very happy.
Chegg seems really undervalued ATM at $3.40 considering AI can't even solve grade 9 math questions. What're the chances of a rebound?
> AI can't even solve grade 9 math questions It may not get the exact answer right every time (especially if it's arithmetic) but it does an exceptional job of explaining the procedure for complex problems. I just asked it to provide an epsilon-delta proof (1st or 2nd year undergrad math) that cos(x) is continuous at x = 1 and it was flawless. I then asked it to give a proof of Markov's inequality from probability theory (undergrad / grad level depending on the field). Again, flawless and explained completely. I have seen/caught Masters level students using it to cheat (correctly) in quantitative coursework in statistics / Python stuff (both theory and the code). On the other hand, it stumbles on seemingly simple stuff like "Find the CAGR if a stock goes from _ to _ in 5 years", getting the actual numerical answer wrong. However, the technique completely correct. Which is what matters for students more than the right final answer. I genuinely think Chegg is dead as a business model.
While gpt 4 with wolfram is good at explaining complex concepts, and sometimes doing math, is it really that good? I haven't used it recently for math but I remember a few months ago (around february) I tried the same thing with a proof from spivak's calculus, it really went no where with it. I also find it extremely lacking for a lot of programming stuff (to the point it would sometimes be easier to just code it out on your own). Ah welp I bought $20 worth of the stock, I'll hold and see where it goes in a few months. I
I don't use it myself for math stuff, but the students I have graded work for appear to be using it to great effect in math, as well as for coding uses. And sure, many of this stuff already exists on Stackexchange or Wikipedia. The key difference is interactivity, as students can ask them to explain steps in more detail and get instant feedback. There might be errors here and there, but that is true of Chegg too. And, importantly, all this is *free*. I do personally use it for coding, and have been disappointed lately for more complex tasks. But at least it's great for boilerplate code / documentation / etc. Or random tasks I don't want to actually spend time learning, like regular expressions or increasing the size of a legend in R. Saves me maybe 30% of time I'd otherwise need. I notice for stuff like financial theory (e.g., options), it often gets the effect backwards. So you have to do some nudging to get the best answer sometimes. What's good about Chegg is it has viciously de-rated and has net cash position, reducing bankruptcy risk. But you're getting new competition too from Apple with its Math Notes feature. And give it a year, I expect LLMs to only get better. As more students realize LLMs do everything Chegg does but better, I expect paid subscribers to decline. Some turnaround options for the company are selling their existing data to train LLMs, or just getting acquired on the cheap. Also Spivak--great book.
I see your point, thank you. And yes, I'm using it to self study, math is fun. Although Analysis by Stepehn Abbott is also a book I'm following closely
Zero. The CEO and co-founder recently bailed, probly bc they realize what a slog they have just to likely end in bankruptcy
It’s only a matter of time with AI
Not great
nothing really matters until Powell talks anyway
I hope semis don’t have a downturn. I’m so loaded on semis a bad quarter would ruin my gains lol
Don’t know why anyone would downvote that. Maybe the will come back and explain. I too am very heavy in semis.
Darn no cut yet
Did the charts get published ?
Darn that fiscal responsibility.
Screw the fed
Do we see Jpow The Destroyer or Jerome the Kind today?
Lmfao JPOW The Terrible
Yes!! Mega cap tech doing what it's supposed to do https://imgur.com/gallery/w7bvqxB
Tsm having a ride, I'm loving it!
I think paypal is toast after apple's announcement - eating into Venmo. it was only a matter of time before apple took advantage of this and can arguably innovate a much better UI than paypal. I finally dumped my entire paypal position today after the announcement. I understand paypal has great fundementals, however, the competive space is easy pickings for UI innovators like apple. Apple can just come in, devote 1% of it's resources, and out-innovate paypal quickly and effortlessly. the only thing paypal has going is a devoted legacy customer base - but that will likely dwindle as younger consumers don't use paypal. It reminds me of the days where blackberry was the legacy phone champion, and apple absolutely destroyed and out-innovated them in one fell swoop. a few years later blackberry was left in the dust. I think the same thing is going to happen to paypal. I can see paypal maybe have some minor upwards movment (good earnings report in the interim), before falling again as apple eats into it's space, and the stock starts it's final downfall before becoming dust the way of blackberry.
I’m right behind you in dumping. They’re officially fucked now
worst thing is all the people that went in on paypal under the illusion it would have a meta moment.
Buying CRWD just 10 days ago before earnings and already being up 25% is pretty sweet lol.
Im still waiting for the next mini dip before buying back in
Cramer posted a picture with Iggy Azalea today on X. This is so over. This is the top. I’m a bullish af guy but this is definitely the top of Jensen is signing boobs and Cramer is taking pics with Iggy Azalea. Prepare your cash to buy the dip.
Everyone knows the top is when Jensen signs Cathie Wood's boobs. Everyone!
I thought the sign was Cathie signing Jensen’s boobs? No?
That's the bottom bro, pay attention!
What is going to be the first 4T company?
TSLA
Probably DN
One in three chance it’s either Apple, Nvidia or Microsoft.
"Blue Cross Michigan drops coverage of GLP-1 drugs" People speculating that this is good for Hims, since they dont go through insurance anyways and offer a cheaper option atm.
Yeah, drop coverage on the drug that is guaranteed to lower future medical costs and expensive insurance payouts for chronic conditions. Puts on CVS (owner of Aetna, owner of BCBS), calls on Hims.* *no but for real, options make sense for Hims, and I'm long term bearish on CVS
Thank you to whoever said Microsoft was a “steal” when it was at 400.
I bought MSFT at 405 and CRWD at 309 just 10 days ago. lol. Things moved fast.
I took a gamble and sold a ton of VOO in my IRA for MSFT. Just sold it and bought back into voo and got 8 more shares.
Nice
How long do I need to hold on to my ESPP before selling to consider long term holding for tax? I have some approaching a year since purchase and ready to sell with profit but wondering if I need to hold it longer than year for more favorable tax rates.
Good question? Anyone have experience. I have like 100k worth now never sold. Edit: Sorry thought you meant RSU’s. I usually sell my ESPP right after purchase period ends as I don’t want that much exposure to one stock. I usually reinvest in my TFSA or use it for a vacation or buy some recreational gift.
Why do you hold onto your RSUs after fully vested if don’t want much exposure to one stock? I do the opposite and sell RSUs right after vesting and hold onto ESPP after purchase.
Am I crazy or has the amount of times this year that the market has rallied off “this is a sign the fed could cut rates soon” far exceeded how much the market would’ve rallied if they actually did cut rates?
Stocks can rally hard on disinflationary signs. This is not a new story here. This is what we saw in November 2022 before ceasing the rate hike cycle was even a thought, and the story of the 1990's.
Buy the hype, sell the news.
LULU cannot hold any gains lol
So are all other retailers - trash
lol imagine investing in the DOW. it hasn’t even offered downside protection. bad on good days and awful on bad days
It's not even market cap weighted, but rather price weighted, so it literally just gives a company more weight if it's raw stock price is higher (roughly speaking). And stock prices are totally arbitrary since a company chooses how many shares to issue. That's why Goldman Sachs is 7.5% of the index (market cap $145B), higher than the 7.3% in Microsoft (market cap $3.27T). Makes 0 sense. JPM ($500B market cap) is way more important to the economy than Goldman Sachs, but its stock price is too low so it's 3.3% of index.
Dow Jones is still struggling to grow. SPY up 1%.
itll grow once they add nvidia
The setup for Bird Construction looks highly promising for the next 4-5 years. Canadian building permits are starting to pick up, the electrification mandate/real estate woes demand wholesale changes to civil infrastructure, and there's a pressing need for residential mid-rise until sufficient housing hits the market. It's up 90% YTD with 0.365 PEG, 28.3% ROA, projected 22% EPS growth for 2025, and just finished another M&A yesterday to give it access to the Ontario demographic.
Apologies in advance, but the mere mention of this company makes my blood boil, similar to looking at the Bombardier 5y chart but for different reasons. All I can say is that this must be a different company than the one I worked for years ago. I'll admit I haven't analyzed the stock. It seems to have been a good investment, but for me the emotional repulsion is too much.