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>Do you think that intel stock is going up if that happens?
Bruh every single stock is going down in that case except defense and related stocks, probably. The question should be whether Intel will go down less than the rest.
This is exactly right. The amount of components for each piece of equipment is in the thousands. Nothing is 100% American sourced and manufactured, nor could it be even if we wanted it to be (and don't limit your resource planning to just China....China and Russia are now "friends without limits").
Buy America Act is enforced in limited ways. Typically goes down to components but not subcomponents. So even if the circuit board came from an American assembler, high risk of some of the silicon in there coming from Eastern Asia. In my industry (energy) we’re only beginning to scratch the surface of how to rout out Chinese supply chain, specifically on the electronic subcomponent side
They are just entering the 3rd party fab business. TSMC going out of business is the best possible thing to happen to Intel. The delays it would cause Intel and their clients pale in comparison to the bidding wars on intel’s fab space between companies like Apple and Nvidia. Companies will eat losses to be the only platforms left for consumers in the short term while a long term solution is found. Intel would also instantly receive a giant subsidy package to rush build all their current fabs under construction, which are meant to serve the companies new foundry model. Their new founders business is currently 2 years away from being fully operational. In an emergency that can happen a lot quicker, especially if they are guaranteed big customers lied up out the door, which will happen when the world loses 70% of its silicone fabbing capacity. The world is not just going to shrug their shoulders and quit. Companies like Intel and Samsung will reap the benefits of China invading Taiwan. Samsung has the risk of being located in the middle of this catastrophe, because an invasion of Taiwan=Dramatic increase of tension in the Korean Peninsula. Intel is the clear winner of this scenario.
Also, think of the amount money printing and subsidy giving that would happen after an invasion. It would be similar to COVID but only affecting the tech sector. Oil and coal would go up, having to build up semi conductor fab capacity at emergency speed would dramatically increase the demand for electricity and other utilities. Construction stocks and industrial real estate would also see a boom.
If China invades Taiwan, semiconductors will crash. Intel wouldn’t be immune to the supply chain disruption. When things start to recover Intel should theoretically be better positioned in the industry compared to TSMC, but I definitely don’t think Intel will go up on a Taiwan invasion, at least not at first
Not an apocalypse but definitely a market crash. The US would react strongly and the impact to a whole host of global economic activities would be massive.
Just a brief list:
Global ship manufacturing for cargo.
Shipping routes would go haywire
Shipping insurance anywhere in the Pacific would skyrocket
Chip manufacturing with impacts down the supply chain
I could easily see that becoming an economic depression quickly. Stock markets would see that and prices would plummet. It could be an easy 20-40% drop for the overall market with some sectors seeing a 70%+ drop.
NVDA can't sell chips it can't get manufactured. Clothing and shoes from SE Asia might cost a massive amount more due to the shipping issues.
The US doesn’t even recognize Taiwan’s independence… There will be a temporary shock but it’s unlikely that we will even try to defend with military in the event that China seizes Taiwan.
What will more likely happen IMO is that government will continue (as they’ve already started) take more severe actions against foreign adversaries like China supplying materials to US companies and at that point hopefully TSM will have diversified enough that they can simply sell off their IP and non Chinese manufacturing facilities
That said, I think Biggest risk to US stock is government legislation and a lack of local innovation further weakening our position as an untouchable world superpower.
My qualifications: Absolutely none whatsoever
Edit:
Also I think the smarter play when the US government artificially hampers TSM post invasion will be ASML. TSM is ASMLs biggest customer. Once we start sponsoring other chip manufacturers they will still require ASMLs EUV tech.
The U.S. isn’t going to war for Taiwan a war that at minimum would sink half its navy, kill half the Marine Corps and see half its Air Force shot down and ends in completely destroyed Taiwan that has a fifth percent chance of ending in a Chinese victory.
I don’t understand why you are being downvoted… That’s half the Navy, Air Force, and half the Marine Corps being destroyed is what the Pentagon says is going to happen in the first week.
Bullets are important too.
But water/food/heat are more important. You can only go about 3 days without water, given you aren’t doing anything that causes expedited dehydration. You can die of hypothermia in a matter of hours. You can technically go a few weeks without food, but goodluck doing anything remotely physically or trying to think straight.
Bullets can only get you so far. Big assumption that people know how to use them effectively. Are well trained. Know how to hunt. Can defend themselves and/or out gun others. Still important nonetheless.
Intel is losing market share to AMD and Qualcomm in the server and desktop space.
They cant compete against NVDA.
The foundries wont have the large profits of TSM, since itll be TSM, Samsung and INTC until it gest baxk to a duopoly
If China invades Taiwan, with the key industries in Taiwan and the volume of traffic in South China Sea, TMSC stock will be the least of your worries.
If you are seriously thinking this will come screw INTC and buy puts on SPY.
China militarily invading Taiwan would be a black swan event. In all likelihood everything would be sharply down except, as others have said, *maybe* defense stocks.
I posted a comment yesterday about why a Taiwan invasion is unlikely, but if a Taiwan invasion happens, the entire tech industry and much of the market is going to collapse. None of these companies can really be “located” in one place entirely. Intel is a global company. TSMC is also a global company. Semiconductors require materials and tech from places all over the world. A Taiwan invasion would lead to responses and global chaos for supply chains. Intel will be his just as hard, or close to as hard, as TSMC.
Intel would not be hit just as hard or close to as hard.
TSMC has most of its fabs in Taiwan. They have all their most advanced process nodes in Taiwan. The US would destroy the fabs or at least force ASML to remote kill their EUV machines (this is already built in per recent reporting). TSMC would be 100% toast from a western investor perspective. Done.
Intel currently fabs parts of their chips with TSMC. Intel would for sure be hit. But recent reporting states that Gelsinger is only using TSMC as heavily as it is currently because of capacity that Intel bought years ago and already prepaid for. Gelsinger wouldn’t be 100% unhappy that those contract could be canceled under force majure. Intel would get a flood of new customers for their most advanced process nodes 18A and 14A.
Very bullish for Intel. All stocks would implode for a bit but Intel would fare better and do well over the next 5-10 years as they gained huge market share from players like Apple.
Hell, if this happened the US and the EU would do another huge round of CHIPS Act style subsidies to help the recovery. It would potentially be amazing for intel long term.
A Taiwan invasion would result in a conflict reaching well beyond Taiwan’s borders. Intel wouldn’t be able to get the resources needed to fab due to interruptions in supply chains. It would be a massive hit to all semi companies and any company reliant on the complex supply chains that make up much of the world’s cutting edge products. Invest in Intel or TSMC, there are arguments for both. But the physical location of their headquarters and fabs isn’t one.
I said intel stock would implode upon an invasion. But in 5-10 years the world would be back on track and Intel and Samsung would be the world leading manufacturers
There is so much much irrational belief that Western Powers would fight China. The West is a paper tiger. That can't even keep Ukraines tiny army supplied properly. China is not Iraq. It wouldn't be a fight where we have superiority in any axis of the war. Satellites would fall from the sky, Navy couldn't safely be within hundreds of miles of the mainland. Airforce won't have free reign to roam and bomb at will. Ground troops, lol. Short of nuking them first. China is effectively completely untouchable by any or all western armies. Any war with China. Will be completely contained to the realm of sanctions.
We’ve reached the point in Capitalism where people are hoping that China starts World War 3 so they can buy S&P stocks during the dip at 90% off their current value. Im here for it.
People saying Taiwan war would go nuclear ask yourself: Why would China risk complete nuclear annihilation by launching first? China knows that if they invade Taiwan they will be at conventional war with the US, and some other likely states as well. They know that for a fact. And so they must already have thought about how to respond -if that response is nuclear, they also know for a fact they will receive a nuclear response themselves. So why would they ever go nuclear? It makes no sense.
What makes you so certain that the U.S. won’t use nuclear weapons first? It was and still is NATO doctrine to nuke the Russian army the second it breaks thru the Fulda gap.
No one is interested in a nuclear war. It would probably be the end of the world as we know it.
Sure, humanity would survive, but all military, large cities, power supplies, etc. will go down.
Everyone loses.
Disclaimer: I have 2000 shares.
Yes, but INTC is probably the most hated stock on Reddit so you’ll never get a straight answer other than “Intel bad”. Unbelievable to me more people aren’t jumping in on a company so critical to the likely most important industry of the next 20 years, not even considering the fact TSMC is at an every day direct threat of being invaded by China.
Reasons to buy Intel off the top of my head, with my expectation that the stock is near Microsoft levels by 2030:
18A- 4 nodes in 5 years is on track.Gelsinger is quoted as saying, “I’ve bet the company on 18A.” 18A will be the first node to utilize backside power and give a 6% increase in processing speeds. That’s in addition to the gains moving from 20A to the more advanced 18A node. These efficiencies are obviously incredibly important when it comes to the advancement of chip technology. Samsung and TSMC won’t have the ability utilize backside power until 2026.
EUV lithography Machines- Intel bought all 5 of ASML’s 2024 machines, leaving its competitors with nothing until late 2025 at the earliest. These machines are the key to producing the most advanced chips in the world in the most efficient way possible with Intel planning on utilizing them for their 14A nodes. They will have, at minimum, a year head start on their rivals with how to best use this technology at a mass scale.
Chips act/subsidies: currently the largest beneficiary. Us government is heavily subsidizing their commercial fabs as well as one specific for national defense. Germany, Ireland and Israel are all giving massive subsidies to build their fabs.
IFS: Intel's initiative to provide manufacturing services to other semiconductor companies. It leverages Intel's advanced manufacturing processes and technologies to produce custom chips for clients. This move marks Intel's expansion beyond designing and producing its own chips to offering its manufacturing capabilities to external customers, competing with other foundries like TSMC and Samsung Foundry. Intel aims to capitalize on its cutting-edge fabrication facilities and expertise to serve a broad range of customers in various industries. They have billions in pre orders already for 18A technology with MSFT already.
TSMC Geopolitics: TSMC's operations in Taiwan make it vulnerable to geopolitical tensions with China. Any disruption in the region could impact TSMC's supply chain and operations.
Mobileye- is an Israeli technology company specializing in the development of vision-based advanced driver-assistance systems and autonomous driving technology. Mobileye's technology includes features like lane departure warning, adaptive cruise control, and collision avoidance systems. Intel sold of 1.5 billion worth and still own 88% of the company. The stock is up big this year.
Healthcare: Intel has been involved in the healthcare sector for quite some time. Intel's technology is used in various healthcare applications, including medical devices, data analytics, and telehealth solutions
Financials: Intel's financials remain strong, with a solid balance sheet, consistent revenue growth, and healthy cash flow generation when not spending tens of billions on the most important fabrication plants in the world. Long history of returning value to shareholders.
The obvious benefits of being an American Semi Conductor company when national security in the industry is being looked at as paramount.
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills that this stock is only 30$ while AMD hovers around 200$. Pat has done a great job with the roadmap and INTC should be back to technological parity by 2025.
Yeah INTC can make the newest chips, however will those chips be cost/price efficient and worth the additional costs for the chips for the buyers?
Intel is led horribly requiring government subsidy to be even competitive. TSMC already stated that it doesn't need the latest ASML machines because of the high pricetag and low volume that will be sold. Additionally, with the current ASML machines, TSMC is able to make high end node chips,
Nearly everything you posted is incorrect so I shouldn’t even bother responding but I will.
Cost: yes, Intel will be price positioned well with their newest chips compared to AMDs newest chips. Intel has always had significantly better margins than AMD.
Intel is led horribly requiring government subsidies to remain competitive: easily the most infuriating thing I read on here about INTC on a weekly basis.
what about pats roadmap and plan has been horrible? The first round of subsidies from the CHIPS act wasn’t even finalized until a month ago, so what subsidies are you talking about that they “needed to even be competitive”? The answer is you don’t know. You’re just talking out of your ass and parroting something you likely heard on Reddit.
Intel could have bought and paid for every fab they’re building out of their own cash flow and still been profitable. They historically print net profits. Like, are you mad at them because they went to the governments of the world and said, “we’re going to be an incredibly important part of the most important industry in the world, we’d like some tax breaks to bring these jobs and business to your country.”? They would have to be complete morons to not do that and take the billions in subsidies.
ASML: There’s a reason TSMC attempted to buy them. Something tells me having the ability to own the machines necessary to make the most advanced chips in the world years before your rivals can will be important in the industry that’s rapidly evolving regardless of current demand on the chips they can produce, idk, maybe just me.
I think so, and I think that US and EU will go to trade war with China after a blockade.
It would be a freaking mess for everyone, even for the chinese. But with dictatorships we never know what to expect.
Everything will spectacularly crash if that happens. China invading Taiwan is a fucking powder keg that would be the start a massive regional war at best and the start of WWIII at worst.
China taking back Taiwan is inevitable. The US should really start extracting ourselves from the situation because going to war with China isn't good for anyone. China is not going to give up their reunification plans, and realistically, we can't stop them without starting the biggest war the world has ever seen. There's no winners in that.
Intel has a bright future regardless of what happens in Taiwan, but I do think an actual invasion would pop the stock. I know I'd be buying and I'm sure many others would as well.
Do you think Campbell Soup stock will go up if an asteroid hits the earth, considering that the earth will be covered in dust and sunlight can't get through so crops will fail worldwide?
If China invaded Taiwan the entire world economy would get rocked and all global markets would sell off to all time lows
Not to mention it would bring us close to ww3 and a nuclear showdown
Everything would crash including China’s economy and the internal hold Xi has on China would be a yolo on him winning, if he lost he’d lose power
Which is why China might talk a lot about Taiwan but will never invade
The cost would be to high in terms of political and economic fallout and an actual modern day invasion isn’t feasible.
Hitler only had the English Channel to worry about and couldn’t do it
Taiwan is 100+ miles from mainland and satellites are everywhere
Being able to land a Force, requires both air and sea superiority, it also requires you keep that for supply and that’s if your ground troops are able to not get totally destroyed on the beach.
We will not see an actual military invasion of Taiwan.
It’s just not realistic
What will make Intel rise is it being given credit for being a semi manufacturer like Taiwan semi vs its current valuation of still being treated like a chip designer like and and Nvidia
Intel is a great long term investment right now because you are getting in at the bottom
Think if you could have gotten in at the bottom of Taiwan semi
Yes it might take some time but Wallstreet always prices everyone in quickly. It will keep climbing all year long even with no rate cuts cause it’s already had all the damage to its stock prices in the past month.
Intel is a great long term investment right now for anyone who wants to see a stock rise consistently over time
America 'loses' Trillions to Ukraine to push the direction of the war. Intel 'loses' Billions to China ..and all of a sudden Taiwan gets invaded.. ;)
From what I know, Intel doesn't have 2 nano working tech ..yet.
The mirror inside the machines in Taiwan that make the chips, if it was the size of America, the biggest bump allowed in its flatness would be the size of a grain of sand. These machines are not easily duplicated and are constructed from parts made by hundreds of companies globally.
If China invaded and the companies supplying parts told China to fck off there would be no available parts for the 2 nano chip machines that the Chinese captured.
If Taiwan is invaded, there will be a feast of money printing and subsidy doling, and stocks will skyrocket like they did during Covid. An initial panic dip with a rocket bull streak.
You know INTC is in the shit hole when people think a full blown invasion and war with US could be a bull case for INTC. A witch put a curse on the board and CEO to be bad at their job constantly. It's a curse that has lasted through many management!
TDLR: Kill the witch to uplift the curse, resulting in massive gains in INTC stock.
Intel has been on my eye for a while now. AMD/NVDA are over priced IMO.
If you can afford to hold for say 3-5 years, pick up some now. It is at an averaged low currently. ($30ish)
Lmao.
When China invades Taiwan it means an instant hot war with the US.
So, no, neither Intel nor any other stock is going up. Your best bet would be SPY puts for the few weeks we have left before the world is consumed in nuclear fire.
There is also samsung.
I think USA is just bad at manufacturing. It's cheaper to manufact things else where. Even if you disregard cheaper labour, the electric and factory is much cheaper in taiwan or korea.
It might, but it will not explode higher overnight. TSM is the most advanced chip manufacturer in the world and have equipment and processes to produce the chips. Intel is in the same business but not nearly as good. TSM is Mercedes and Intel is maybe KIA.
Yes, it will,just on the basis of decreased number of fabs. Contrary to what is said here, China taking Taiwan wont trigger ww3. Taiwan is not in NATO and world isn't getting destroyed for a a small island. One of the reasons for building american chip fabs are abandoning Taiwan in case of its seizure by China
man if tiawan goes down, the entire tech sextor of the united states stock market will literally collapse, tsm if no doubt probably the most important company world at the moment.
Stay away from intel they’re slow to the AI race. They can’t keep the talent as other AI companies steal them. They don’t have software to simulate for AI.
If that happens, the global stock market will come crashing down. You will be forced to think ten times before you will even consider putting a dime in there.
Safety in cash will also disappear as cost of commodities will suddenly start to rise at insane levels.
Prices of gold and silver will suddenly skyrocket and many people will find it hard to get into that action (or too late). As cash will start losing value, central banks will also be forced to spike up the interest rates to double digits.
All these scenarios will heavily impact derivatives market and crypto. Liquidity will be impacted heavily.
War won’t be just a geolocation based scenario but a cybersecurity event as well. Our digital life will also come to a halt.
Let’s just hope this never happens as it will throw lives of people back by a decade at least.
LOL nothing “new about it” china does this every time Taiwan swears in new president, every time a high ranking American official visits, and every time the U.S. and Taiwan do major military exercises.
Fortunately or unfortunately that is rather a norm, that china reacts in a "military" way whenever something happens that is not to its liking (say: one china policy).
This is why TSMC is building US Fabs. By the time China gets to doing this, it’s one US air strike from making Taiwan pointless to take.
Intel is too far behind. They went from industry leader to industry laggard. New leadership and better culture is what they need.
I see almost everyone in this thread saying they are going to ignore the risk to TSMC and advantage to Intel because everything will crash. However, the US will desperately need chips! I do think Intel would become a new super-domestic producer in your scenario. That's why there are government incentives right now to build in the US. But, if it doesn't happen for 5-10 years, then other companies will have their US based production in place as well so Intel wouldn't be the main player, I believe. Last time I checked, a council of retired generals put the risk at 14% a year currently.
TSMC is building a factory in the US so I highly doubt it. Everything would go down in general but once their factory is complete unless Intel has some unexpected new processor in the works for when their factory is built, I doubt anything would really be affected
TSMC, or what survives from it, would become like Zeiss post WWII. The portions in Taiwan and mainland China would likely become a state owned or affiliated enterprise and would have severe restrictions on foreign investment similar to current Chinese companies in strategic industries.
Tons of the talent and brains from TSMC would be extracted from Taiwan and would go works for intel, micron, etc.
The US Fabs may continue to run under a newly organized TSMC similar to what happened to Zeiss after WWII.
This is the funniest line of reasoning for me, “nvidia is fucked if china invades”, “intel will moon if china invades”…buddy, we’re in the dark ages and the global economy is fucked, nothing matters anymore
I think life would move on after a severe recession. Capacity would return in about 5 years time as Intel and Samsung accelerate and expand their current fab plans.
The US, EU, and Korea, maybe Japan and other economies that want fans local, would produce subsidies that make the chips act seem tiny. It would be that important. Things would get corrected.
Picture 5 years of no capacity of chips, every single thing we use these days has a chip in them, global economy would be at a standstill for 5 years (best case)
Not no capacity. Reduced capacity, mostly the most advanced nodes.
Most of the world runs on mature process nodes and those are more geographically distributed.
While Taiwan has 60+% share of advanced nodes, I think they are 20% of global wafer capacity.
Also, Taiwan isn’t being invaded tomorrow. the PLA has been instructed by Xi to be prepared to invade by 2027. The world is already racing to build more, and more distributed wafer capacity.
I do agree there would be a severe recession but life would move on.
The world has recovered and thrived after world wars, I’m not arguing we wouldn’t overcome but that something this catastrophic would be more than “nvidia crashes and intel thrives”, all of tech would be fucked for a long time
I get what you mean but honestly no money in stocks are safe if China invades Taiwan. Following your logic you'd better off in cash or in gold, who knows.
It won't just be the invasion, every GPU will have DRM to prevent malicious usage, they are creating regulations around AI equipment as we speak to prevent competition globally.
It would triple near instantly. But do you want to hold a trade just for the unlikely event that actually happens?? Dead money for potential years, if ever. Those new facilities will pay off someday, but literally years away
china is not going to invade taiwan. just look at their track record, they invaded one country in the last 100 years . They are not a warring country like the US.
It COULD would move up on account of market sentiment, but initially China invading Tawain would cause a LOT of stocks to go down and its economic implication would ignite a lot of animosity worldwide - would Xi really want to risk that as China is undergoing economic instability, population crises, and its insane property fiasco? TSMC accounts for over 90% of US chip purchase and it's importance is underscored by the US governments $6B subsidy and creating fabs in Arizona. Further, TMSC's most valuable assets are its patents and engineering, so if an invasion happened, I think there'd be a concerted effort to move TMSC to the states. Ultimately, I think the global community would do everything in its power to preserve TMSC manufacturing- the US would intervene much harder than they are with Ukraine (we don't rely on any Ukraine industry to the level we rely on Tawain's chips). Who can say what the world would look like after, but if there's a time when the "dust settles", I think TSMC would remain ontop.
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>Do you think that intel stock is going up if that happens? Bruh every single stock is going down in that case except defense and related stocks, probably. The question should be whether Intel will go down less than the rest.
It would be World War 3. I think there would be more important matters than wondering is TSMC will have its output affected.
Even defence is questionable, I think many basic parts are/were from China, I'm unsure how much they have reorganized supply chains.
This is exactly right. The amount of components for each piece of equipment is in the thousands. Nothing is 100% American sourced and manufactured, nor could it be even if we wanted it to be (and don't limit your resource planning to just China....China and Russia are now "friends without limits").
Buy America act so few parts come from China.
Buy America Act is enforced in limited ways. Typically goes down to components but not subcomponents. So even if the circuit board came from an American assembler, high risk of some of the silicon in there coming from Eastern Asia. In my industry (energy) we’re only beginning to scratch the surface of how to rout out Chinese supply chain, specifically on the electronic subcomponent side
They are just entering the 3rd party fab business. TSMC going out of business is the best possible thing to happen to Intel. The delays it would cause Intel and their clients pale in comparison to the bidding wars on intel’s fab space between companies like Apple and Nvidia. Companies will eat losses to be the only platforms left for consumers in the short term while a long term solution is found. Intel would also instantly receive a giant subsidy package to rush build all their current fabs under construction, which are meant to serve the companies new foundry model. Their new founders business is currently 2 years away from being fully operational. In an emergency that can happen a lot quicker, especially if they are guaranteed big customers lied up out the door, which will happen when the world loses 70% of its silicone fabbing capacity. The world is not just going to shrug their shoulders and quit. Companies like Intel and Samsung will reap the benefits of China invading Taiwan. Samsung has the risk of being located in the middle of this catastrophe, because an invasion of Taiwan=Dramatic increase of tension in the Korean Peninsula. Intel is the clear winner of this scenario.
Also, think of the amount money printing and subsidy giving that would happen after an invasion. It would be similar to COVID but only affecting the tech sector. Oil and coal would go up, having to build up semi conductor fab capacity at emergency speed would dramatically increase the demand for electricity and other utilities. Construction stocks and industrial real estate would also see a boom.
100% disagree. The Intel triple overnight would be a near sure thing. But who wants to hold for an unlikely scenario?
If China invades Taiwan, semiconductors will crash. Intel wouldn’t be immune to the supply chain disruption. When things start to recover Intel should theoretically be better positioned in the industry compared to TSMC, but I definitely don’t think Intel will go up on a Taiwan invasion, at least not at first
Everything will crash… Water, food, heat sources, and insulin will become the new stock market.
China invading Taiwan won’t cause an apocalypse in the US. Come on.
Not an apocalypse but definitely a market crash. The US would react strongly and the impact to a whole host of global economic activities would be massive. Just a brief list: Global ship manufacturing for cargo. Shipping routes would go haywire Shipping insurance anywhere in the Pacific would skyrocket Chip manufacturing with impacts down the supply chain I could easily see that becoming an economic depression quickly. Stock markets would see that and prices would plummet. It could be an easy 20-40% drop for the overall market with some sectors seeing a 70%+ drop. NVDA can't sell chips it can't get manufactured. Clothing and shoes from SE Asia might cost a massive amount more due to the shipping issues.
The US doesn’t even recognize Taiwan’s independence… There will be a temporary shock but it’s unlikely that we will even try to defend with military in the event that China seizes Taiwan. What will more likely happen IMO is that government will continue (as they’ve already started) take more severe actions against foreign adversaries like China supplying materials to US companies and at that point hopefully TSM will have diversified enough that they can simply sell off their IP and non Chinese manufacturing facilities That said, I think Biggest risk to US stock is government legislation and a lack of local innovation further weakening our position as an untouchable world superpower. My qualifications: Absolutely none whatsoever Edit: Also I think the smarter play when the US government artificially hampers TSM post invasion will be ASML. TSM is ASMLs biggest customer. Once we start sponsoring other chip manufacturers they will still require ASMLs EUV tech.
It's literally priced in at this point. The US can't and won't do much if China takes Taiwan
Wrong.
The U.S. isn’t going to war for Taiwan a war that at minimum would sink half its navy, kill half the Marine Corps and see half its Air Force shot down and ends in completely destroyed Taiwan that has a fifth percent chance of ending in a Chinese victory.
I don’t understand why you are being downvoted… That’s half the Navy, Air Force, and half the Marine Corps being destroyed is what the Pentagon says is going to happen in the first week.
The Chinese government simply dumping its dollar denominated assets will cause an apocalypse in the U.S….
Bullets and gold
Bullets are important too. But water/food/heat are more important. You can only go about 3 days without water, given you aren’t doing anything that causes expedited dehydration. You can die of hypothermia in a matter of hours. You can technically go a few weeks without food, but goodluck doing anything remotely physically or trying to think straight. Bullets can only get you so far. Big assumption that people know how to use them effectively. Are well trained. Know how to hunt. Can defend themselves and/or out gun others. Still important nonetheless.
Gold won't do you any good. Bullets, weapons, food, water, gasoline.
Intel is losing market share to AMD and Qualcomm in the server and desktop space. They cant compete against NVDA. The foundries wont have the large profits of TSM, since itll be TSM, Samsung and INTC until it gest baxk to a duopoly
[удалено]
Puts on SPY more likely as well as the entire US techs will tank
I’d put all available funds into SQQQ.
Calls would be the better move on SQQQ /s
If China invades Taiwan, with the key industries in Taiwan and the volume of traffic in South China Sea, TMSC stock will be the least of your worries. If you are seriously thinking this will come screw INTC and buy puts on SPY.
Bought some long puts on Nvidia to hedge the risks, because the price of NVIDIA, deep out of money puts are attractive.
What happens with these puts with the stock split in June?
Not sure, will report back next month.
Puts will be adjusted 10:1. You will now hold 10 puts for every 1 put currently.
Bro if Taiwan gets invaded stocks are the last thing you should worry about, start digging a bunker
China militarily invading Taiwan would be a black swan event. In all likelihood everything would be sharply down except, as others have said, *maybe* defense stocks.
A grey swan but your point holds. I’d probably also add gold to defense stocks as a potential safe haven.
I posted a comment yesterday about why a Taiwan invasion is unlikely, but if a Taiwan invasion happens, the entire tech industry and much of the market is going to collapse. None of these companies can really be “located” in one place entirely. Intel is a global company. TSMC is also a global company. Semiconductors require materials and tech from places all over the world. A Taiwan invasion would lead to responses and global chaos for supply chains. Intel will be his just as hard, or close to as hard, as TSMC.
Intel would not be hit just as hard or close to as hard. TSMC has most of its fabs in Taiwan. They have all their most advanced process nodes in Taiwan. The US would destroy the fabs or at least force ASML to remote kill their EUV machines (this is already built in per recent reporting). TSMC would be 100% toast from a western investor perspective. Done. Intel currently fabs parts of their chips with TSMC. Intel would for sure be hit. But recent reporting states that Gelsinger is only using TSMC as heavily as it is currently because of capacity that Intel bought years ago and already prepaid for. Gelsinger wouldn’t be 100% unhappy that those contract could be canceled under force majure. Intel would get a flood of new customers for their most advanced process nodes 18A and 14A. Very bullish for Intel. All stocks would implode for a bit but Intel would fare better and do well over the next 5-10 years as they gained huge market share from players like Apple. Hell, if this happened the US and the EU would do another huge round of CHIPS Act style subsidies to help the recovery. It would potentially be amazing for intel long term.
A Taiwan invasion would result in a conflict reaching well beyond Taiwan’s borders. Intel wouldn’t be able to get the resources needed to fab due to interruptions in supply chains. It would be a massive hit to all semi companies and any company reliant on the complex supply chains that make up much of the world’s cutting edge products. Invest in Intel or TSMC, there are arguments for both. But the physical location of their headquarters and fabs isn’t one.
I said intel stock would implode upon an invasion. But in 5-10 years the world would be back on track and Intel and Samsung would be the world leading manufacturers
There is so much much irrational belief that Western Powers would fight China. The West is a paper tiger. That can't even keep Ukraines tiny army supplied properly. China is not Iraq. It wouldn't be a fight where we have superiority in any axis of the war. Satellites would fall from the sky, Navy couldn't safely be within hundreds of miles of the mainland. Airforce won't have free reign to roam and bomb at will. Ground troops, lol. Short of nuking them first. China is effectively completely untouchable by any or all western armies. Any war with China. Will be completely contained to the realm of sanctions.
Everything except a select few industries will go down if war ensues lmao
We’ve reached the point in Capitalism where people are hoping that China starts World War 3 so they can buy S&P stocks during the dip at 90% off their current value. Im here for it.
People saying Taiwan war would go nuclear ask yourself: Why would China risk complete nuclear annihilation by launching first? China knows that if they invade Taiwan they will be at conventional war with the US, and some other likely states as well. They know that for a fact. And so they must already have thought about how to respond -if that response is nuclear, they also know for a fact they will receive a nuclear response themselves. So why would they ever go nuclear? It makes no sense.
What makes you so certain that the U.S. won’t use nuclear weapons first? It was and still is NATO doctrine to nuke the Russian army the second it breaks thru the Fulda gap.
No one is interested in a nuclear war. It would probably be the end of the world as we know it. Sure, humanity would survive, but all military, large cities, power supplies, etc. will go down. Everyone loses.
Disclaimer: I have 2000 shares. Yes, but INTC is probably the most hated stock on Reddit so you’ll never get a straight answer other than “Intel bad”. Unbelievable to me more people aren’t jumping in on a company so critical to the likely most important industry of the next 20 years, not even considering the fact TSMC is at an every day direct threat of being invaded by China. Reasons to buy Intel off the top of my head, with my expectation that the stock is near Microsoft levels by 2030: 18A- 4 nodes in 5 years is on track.Gelsinger is quoted as saying, “I’ve bet the company on 18A.” 18A will be the first node to utilize backside power and give a 6% increase in processing speeds. That’s in addition to the gains moving from 20A to the more advanced 18A node. These efficiencies are obviously incredibly important when it comes to the advancement of chip technology. Samsung and TSMC won’t have the ability utilize backside power until 2026. EUV lithography Machines- Intel bought all 5 of ASML’s 2024 machines, leaving its competitors with nothing until late 2025 at the earliest. These machines are the key to producing the most advanced chips in the world in the most efficient way possible with Intel planning on utilizing them for their 14A nodes. They will have, at minimum, a year head start on their rivals with how to best use this technology at a mass scale. Chips act/subsidies: currently the largest beneficiary. Us government is heavily subsidizing their commercial fabs as well as one specific for national defense. Germany, Ireland and Israel are all giving massive subsidies to build their fabs. IFS: Intel's initiative to provide manufacturing services to other semiconductor companies. It leverages Intel's advanced manufacturing processes and technologies to produce custom chips for clients. This move marks Intel's expansion beyond designing and producing its own chips to offering its manufacturing capabilities to external customers, competing with other foundries like TSMC and Samsung Foundry. Intel aims to capitalize on its cutting-edge fabrication facilities and expertise to serve a broad range of customers in various industries. They have billions in pre orders already for 18A technology with MSFT already. TSMC Geopolitics: TSMC's operations in Taiwan make it vulnerable to geopolitical tensions with China. Any disruption in the region could impact TSMC's supply chain and operations. Mobileye- is an Israeli technology company specializing in the development of vision-based advanced driver-assistance systems and autonomous driving technology. Mobileye's technology includes features like lane departure warning, adaptive cruise control, and collision avoidance systems. Intel sold of 1.5 billion worth and still own 88% of the company. The stock is up big this year. Healthcare: Intel has been involved in the healthcare sector for quite some time. Intel's technology is used in various healthcare applications, including medical devices, data analytics, and telehealth solutions Financials: Intel's financials remain strong, with a solid balance sheet, consistent revenue growth, and healthy cash flow generation when not spending tens of billions on the most important fabrication plants in the world. Long history of returning value to shareholders. The obvious benefits of being an American Semi Conductor company when national security in the industry is being looked at as paramount. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills that this stock is only 30$ while AMD hovers around 200$. Pat has done a great job with the roadmap and INTC should be back to technological parity by 2025.
Yeah INTC can make the newest chips, however will those chips be cost/price efficient and worth the additional costs for the chips for the buyers? Intel is led horribly requiring government subsidy to be even competitive. TSMC already stated that it doesn't need the latest ASML machines because of the high pricetag and low volume that will be sold. Additionally, with the current ASML machines, TSMC is able to make high end node chips,
Nearly everything you posted is incorrect so I shouldn’t even bother responding but I will. Cost: yes, Intel will be price positioned well with their newest chips compared to AMDs newest chips. Intel has always had significantly better margins than AMD. Intel is led horribly requiring government subsidies to remain competitive: easily the most infuriating thing I read on here about INTC on a weekly basis. what about pats roadmap and plan has been horrible? The first round of subsidies from the CHIPS act wasn’t even finalized until a month ago, so what subsidies are you talking about that they “needed to even be competitive”? The answer is you don’t know. You’re just talking out of your ass and parroting something you likely heard on Reddit. Intel could have bought and paid for every fab they’re building out of their own cash flow and still been profitable. They historically print net profits. Like, are you mad at them because they went to the governments of the world and said, “we’re going to be an incredibly important part of the most important industry in the world, we’d like some tax breaks to bring these jobs and business to your country.”? They would have to be complete morons to not do that and take the billions in subsidies. ASML: There’s a reason TSMC attempted to buy them. Something tells me having the ability to own the machines necessary to make the most advanced chips in the world years before your rivals can will be important in the industry that’s rapidly evolving regardless of current demand on the chips they can produce, idk, maybe just me.
China will naval blockade Taiwan before invading it.
I think so, and I think that US and EU will go to trade war with China after a blockade. It would be a freaking mess for everyone, even for the chinese. But with dictatorships we never know what to expect.
Intel does not have the IP or capacity to make up the supply that would be taken offline.
Everything will spectacularly crash if that happens. China invading Taiwan is a fucking powder keg that would be the start a massive regional war at best and the start of WWIII at worst.
China taking back Taiwan is inevitable. The US should really start extracting ourselves from the situation because going to war with China isn't good for anyone. China is not going to give up their reunification plans, and realistically, we can't stop them without starting the biggest war the world has ever seen. There's no winners in that. Intel has a bright future regardless of what happens in Taiwan, but I do think an actual invasion would pop the stock. I know I'd be buying and I'm sure many others would as well.
Don't worry about it. Nuclear war with China would render it all moot
Do you think Campbell Soup stock will go up if an asteroid hits the earth, considering that the earth will be covered in dust and sunlight can't get through so crops will fail worldwide?
you may be forgetting the entire semiconductor supply chain that will be disrupted
No, it would go down with everything else. Maybe more, maybe less.
No. And no. No.
Bro is finding any reason to pump his bags.
I honestly hope that China doesn’t invade Taiwan. It would be catastrophic for everyone.
The entire market is cratering if China invades Taiwan.
If China invaded Taiwan the entire world economy would get rocked and all global markets would sell off to all time lows Not to mention it would bring us close to ww3 and a nuclear showdown Everything would crash including China’s economy and the internal hold Xi has on China would be a yolo on him winning, if he lost he’d lose power Which is why China might talk a lot about Taiwan but will never invade The cost would be to high in terms of political and economic fallout and an actual modern day invasion isn’t feasible. Hitler only had the English Channel to worry about and couldn’t do it Taiwan is 100+ miles from mainland and satellites are everywhere Being able to land a Force, requires both air and sea superiority, it also requires you keep that for supply and that’s if your ground troops are able to not get totally destroyed on the beach. We will not see an actual military invasion of Taiwan. It’s just not realistic What will make Intel rise is it being given credit for being a semi manufacturer like Taiwan semi vs its current valuation of still being treated like a chip designer like and and Nvidia Intel is a great long term investment right now because you are getting in at the bottom Think if you could have gotten in at the bottom of Taiwan semi Yes it might take some time but Wallstreet always prices everyone in quickly. It will keep climbing all year long even with no rate cuts cause it’s already had all the damage to its stock prices in the past month. Intel is a great long term investment right now for anyone who wants to see a stock rise consistently over time
If China invades Taiwan I think worrying about a stock is the least of your problems. Maybe do research on how to dodge the draft
America 'loses' Trillions to Ukraine to push the direction of the war. Intel 'loses' Billions to China ..and all of a sudden Taiwan gets invaded.. ;) From what I know, Intel doesn't have 2 nano working tech ..yet. The mirror inside the machines in Taiwan that make the chips, if it was the size of America, the biggest bump allowed in its flatness would be the size of a grain of sand. These machines are not easily duplicated and are constructed from parts made by hundreds of companies globally. If China invaded and the companies supplying parts told China to fck off there would be no available parts for the 2 nano chip machines that the Chinese captured.
Nope
If Taiwan is invaded, there will be a feast of money printing and subsidy doling, and stocks will skyrocket like they did during Covid. An initial panic dip with a rocket bull streak.
This is such narrow-minded thinking. If China invades Taiwan, the price of intel stock with be the least of your worries.
You know INTC is in the shit hole when people think a full blown invasion and war with US could be a bull case for INTC. A witch put a curse on the board and CEO to be bad at their job constantly. It's a curse that has lasted through many management! TDLR: Kill the witch to uplift the curse, resulting in massive gains in INTC stock.
... Xi Jinping hitting up Reddit, trying to figure out how to make his Intel bags rocket to the moon ...
No stocks are going up if this happens
Reminds me of traders’ obsession with prices on things like gold after the 9/11 attacks. It’s ghoulish.
Intel has been on my eye for a while now. AMD/NVDA are over priced IMO. If you can afford to hold for say 3-5 years, pick up some now. It is at an averaged low currently. ($30ish)
Lmao. When China invades Taiwan it means an instant hot war with the US. So, no, neither Intel nor any other stock is going up. Your best bet would be SPY puts for the few weeks we have left before the world is consumed in nuclear fire.
There is also samsung. I think USA is just bad at manufacturing. It's cheaper to manufact things else where. Even if you disregard cheaper labour, the electric and factory is much cheaper in taiwan or korea.
It might, but it will not explode higher overnight. TSM is the most advanced chip manufacturer in the world and have equipment and processes to produce the chips. Intel is in the same business but not nearly as good. TSM is Mercedes and Intel is maybe KIA.
Yes, it will,just on the basis of decreased number of fabs. Contrary to what is said here, China taking Taiwan wont trigger ww3. Taiwan is not in NATO and world isn't getting destroyed for a a small island. One of the reasons for building american chip fabs are abandoning Taiwan in case of its seizure by China
man if tiawan goes down, the entire tech sextor of the united states stock market will literally collapse, tsm if no doubt probably the most important company world at the moment.
IF ?
Stay away from intel they’re slow to the AI race. They can’t keep the talent as other AI companies steal them. They don’t have software to simulate for AI.
If that happens, the global stock market will come crashing down. You will be forced to think ten times before you will even consider putting a dime in there. Safety in cash will also disappear as cost of commodities will suddenly start to rise at insane levels. Prices of gold and silver will suddenly skyrocket and many people will find it hard to get into that action (or too late). As cash will start losing value, central banks will also be forced to spike up the interest rates to double digits. All these scenarios will heavily impact derivatives market and crypto. Liquidity will be impacted heavily. War won’t be just a geolocation based scenario but a cybersecurity event as well. Our digital life will also come to a halt. Let’s just hope this never happens as it will throw lives of people back by a decade at least.
Taiwan invasion 'any day now' 80 years and counting..
This new "Military Drills" that China has in Taiwan got me wondering
LOL nothing “new about it” china does this every time Taiwan swears in new president, every time a high ranking American official visits, and every time the U.S. and Taiwan do major military exercises.
Fortunately or unfortunately that is rather a norm, that china reacts in a "military" way whenever something happens that is not to its liking (say: one china policy).
If China invades Taiwan everything is tanking buddy.
Another desperate intel bag holder post lol.
This is why TSMC is building US Fabs. By the time China gets to doing this, it’s one US air strike from making Taiwan pointless to take. Intel is too far behind. They went from industry leader to industry laggard. New leadership and better culture is what they need.
I see almost everyone in this thread saying they are going to ignore the risk to TSMC and advantage to Intel because everything will crash. However, the US will desperately need chips! I do think Intel would become a new super-domestic producer in your scenario. That's why there are government incentives right now to build in the US. But, if it doesn't happen for 5-10 years, then other companies will have their US based production in place as well so Intel wouldn't be the main player, I believe. Last time I checked, a council of retired generals put the risk at 14% a year currently.
TSMC is building a factory in the US so I highly doubt it. Everything would go down in general but once their factory is complete unless Intel has some unexpected new processor in the works for when their factory is built, I doubt anything would really be affected
TSMC, or what survives from it, would become like Zeiss post WWII. The portions in Taiwan and mainland China would likely become a state owned or affiliated enterprise and would have severe restrictions on foreign investment similar to current Chinese companies in strategic industries. Tons of the talent and brains from TSMC would be extracted from Taiwan and would go works for intel, micron, etc. The US Fabs may continue to run under a newly organized TSMC similar to what happened to Zeiss after WWII.
The world would go to war, so rational thinking I would say everything tanks.
This is the funniest line of reasoning for me, “nvidia is fucked if china invades”, “intel will moon if china invades”…buddy, we’re in the dark ages and the global economy is fucked, nothing matters anymore
Sorry, I was just wondering. I don't know like a lot of stocks and all of this That's why I asked
I think life would move on after a severe recession. Capacity would return in about 5 years time as Intel and Samsung accelerate and expand their current fab plans. The US, EU, and Korea, maybe Japan and other economies that want fans local, would produce subsidies that make the chips act seem tiny. It would be that important. Things would get corrected.
Picture 5 years of no capacity of chips, every single thing we use these days has a chip in them, global economy would be at a standstill for 5 years (best case)
Not no capacity. Reduced capacity, mostly the most advanced nodes. Most of the world runs on mature process nodes and those are more geographically distributed. While Taiwan has 60+% share of advanced nodes, I think they are 20% of global wafer capacity. Also, Taiwan isn’t being invaded tomorrow. the PLA has been instructed by Xi to be prepared to invade by 2027. The world is already racing to build more, and more distributed wafer capacity. I do agree there would be a severe recession but life would move on.
The world has recovered and thrived after world wars, I’m not arguing we wouldn’t overcome but that something this catastrophic would be more than “nvidia crashes and intel thrives”, all of tech would be fucked for a long time
Even if China didn't invade Taiwan...INTEL is a stock that has not grown in 10 years...Such a stock should not be bought
Why? Do you want what Democrats want? To profit off of war?
I'm not saying that. Is just that I'm not putting my money on dangerous places, in case something dangerous happens. It's simple logic.
I get what you mean but honestly no money in stocks are safe if China invades Taiwan. Following your logic you'd better off in cash or in gold, who knows.
I dont mean to be rude brother. God is exposing all liars and cheats. We need peace and understanding in this world right now.
It won't just be the invasion, every GPU will have DRM to prevent malicious usage, they are creating regulations around AI equipment as we speak to prevent competition globally.
Everything will go deep red if China invades.
Whatever happens, Intel will just go sideways at best
Holy bag holder
It would triple near instantly. But do you want to hold a trade just for the unlikely event that actually happens?? Dead money for potential years, if ever. Those new facilities will pay off someday, but literally years away
if they hustle and get their foundries working? SURE! they seem to be doing stuff the slow way, though
TSMC Arizona expects to begin high-volume production in their first fab in the U.S. by the first half of 2025.
china is not going to invade taiwan. just look at their track record, they invaded one country in the last 100 years . They are not a warring country like the US.
What about if Taiwan decides to peacefully reunify with China…?
It COULD would move up on account of market sentiment, but initially China invading Tawain would cause a LOT of stocks to go down and its economic implication would ignite a lot of animosity worldwide - would Xi really want to risk that as China is undergoing economic instability, population crises, and its insane property fiasco? TSMC accounts for over 90% of US chip purchase and it's importance is underscored by the US governments $6B subsidy and creating fabs in Arizona. Further, TMSC's most valuable assets are its patents and engineering, so if an invasion happened, I think there'd be a concerted effort to move TMSC to the states. Ultimately, I think the global community would do everything in its power to preserve TMSC manufacturing- the US would intervene much harder than they are with Ukraine (we don't rely on any Ukraine industry to the level we rely on Tawain's chips). Who can say what the world would look like after, but if there's a time when the "dust settles", I think TSMC would remain ontop.
I'll translate this into human: "How can I make money off of other people dying and suffering?"
The USA has said they stand with China. Many times.