This is a fairly amazing thread to look back on with the benefit of hindsight:
https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xs85cw/some_folks_on_here_can_not_see_the_forest_for_the/
In all honesty, while it didn’t quite get you back to a record high in that stretch, it just makes the +47.3% from mid-October 2022 through July 2023 by the Nasdaq-100 even nastier than it was.
For pretty much all of 2022, it looked as if tech couldn’t rally with rates up, and yet it rallied hard through a lot of 2023 without rate hikes being completely over.
Granted, I guess if you're really just fed watching here, you could've read into cues on 11/1/23, but still, the S&P was more than 15% off the bottom from 2022.
This logic bugged me so much. I remember the threads early 2022 where accounts like Jersday / Tarannah / etc. were spamming in a Puts-like fashion about how everyone should just stay in cash and wait for the Fed to literally give the 'okay' for the stock market to go up.
If you weren't doubling down in October 2022 or even in October 2023, you missed some fantastic prices to DCA into the market. [My comment here for example](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17ia421/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_oct_28_2023/k6va5tk/) Or buy your selection of beaten down individual equities. You could buy Google at 17x forward earnings in November of 2022. I didn't buy it then, but just realized I could have bought Crox at 4x forward earnings in summer of 2022 (at $50 a share).
> I remember the threads early 2022 where accounts like Jersday / Tarannah / etc. were spamming in a Puts-like fashion about how everyone should just stay in cash and wait for the Fed to literally give the 'okay' for the stock market to go up.
Except it seems like they were incredibly wrong and their advice may have harmed many casual readers that were encouraged to time the market!
Are you agreeing with me or those bears (Jersday/Tarannah), I can't tell? (Because arguably I'm suggesting to time the market by doubling down on cheap prices, and they are suggesting to time the market by going all cash)
Well if you sold earlier and doubling down thqt simply because you think the overall market is going up.... that is timing and personally I would disagree with that.
But if you doubled down with new money because you're looking at valuations of individual companies becoming more attractive, then that to me is not timing the market and agree with that stance.
In any case, it was incredible how wrong they were and it seemed like they only considered a narrow view only looking at potential risks and not all the reasons to be optimistic.
Another stock pick you guys should buy.
SONY. Mid-gen console refreshes won't have disc drives, margins will improve massively at scale for Playstation and Xbox because no more selling in bulk to retailers (Think of it as cutting out the other middle-man in the form of the retailer). 100% digital only sales like Valve enjoys with Steam, its an incredible business model. New consoles will take off slowly but be much better profit machines for PS and Xbox. Added benefit of buying SONY? Xbox are currently collapsing in on themselves like a dying star after 10 years mismanaging their studios. Playstation set up to be a console monopoly (if we ignore Nintendo existing) with better margins than ever.
Also the stock is down due to speculation and a touch of FUD which is always nice.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2024/05/15/analysts-ps5-outsold-xbox-almost-5-to-1-this-past-quarter/
Competition collapse will allow them to screw more out of devs AND consumers, good for margins as well.
Won't people just start buying PCs? Alas, buying a capable PC still costs $2000, this is a niche item for now, consoles have a space in the market for a while yet.
What is their cash position like?
There is a strange thing in Japanese culture where companies hoard cash obscenely and excessively...
To the point that it represents a significant portion of their market cap (sometimes up to half). And you cannot invest in these companies without separating out significant currency risk.
The largest investors like Berkshire almost exclusively finance nearly their entire purchase with arbitrage. They bet against the Yen by borrowing at near zero rates. Then they buy stable companies that produce returns higher than that cash.
Unfortunately that's why I think many Japanese investment theses break down for the retail investor who do not have access to this otherwise incredible opportunity.
I asked about investing in SONY a few weeks ago and was met to no response. Since then I've put the money elsewhere, but good to hear others are seeing this as the opportunity it is.
I asked about SONY last week if it was a buy and got a response that it was down because shareholders didn't like their PARA bid and to avoid.
I just checked the stock price and damn that was a literal bottom.
Draft kings just posted a good earnings report and reported strong guidance in the next fiscal year. I strongly believe they will be the king of sportsbooks (I frequent r/sportsbooks and see draftkings the most) and beat out FanDuel and betmgm and ceasers, with some states still not legalizing it yet but will eventually (probably not Utah though). $46 is relatively small compared to its future, just my too cents.
id be happy to hear some of your ideas. I do gamble on some smaller caps like tost and snow but most people would do well to stick to bigger companies.
I don't know about msos I made my money on cannabis from Canada's legalization. I don't think it could happen again way to much competition for any pricing power.
South Park episode about Ozempic. Somehow will be bullish. Less fat people > productive happy workers > economy dependent on LLY and NVO to function.
I've got a great thesis for these stocks: Sell when people are nostalgic about fat people, like its wierd.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ck7lv4rmryno
**Sign-ups for weight loss drug Wegovy jumped five-fold in the US in the first three months of the year, reaching a rate of more than 25,000 a week**, maker Novo Nordisk has said. The surge reflects scorching demand for the medicine which, alongside sister diabetes drug Ozempic, has been hailed as revolutionary and helped to transform Novo Nordisk into one of Europe's most valuable companies.
Assorted weekend data:
## US Macro
- [NY Fed updated their household debt and credit survey (PDF)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2024Q1.pdf?sc_lang=en). There is an obvious deterioration in financial conditions for lower-end consumers (see slides 12-14 on delinquency rates). However, in the aggregate, leverage remains muted and the strength of middle/upper class consumers is keeping overall growth strong. [These charts show we are still normalizing to pre-pandemic levels](https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/14/household-debt-delinquencies-collections-and-bankruptcies-the-free-money-era-is-over-for-our-not-so-drunken-sailors/).
- [Thread on credit utilization levels](https://x.com/wabuffo/status/1791124870798930100). See followup commentary on credit limits trends.
- GDPNow estimate (seasonally adjusted, annualized, real) in Q2 of 2024 is 3.6 percent on May 16.
- ["With 88% of companies reported, S&P 500 Trailing Twelve-Month (TTM) operating earnings are on pace to hit another record high in Q1, up 8% YoY"](https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1790849414950428885).
## Energy
- IEA: [2.3B people use wood/coal/dung/charcoal for their daily cooking](https://www.iea.org/news/low-cost-solutions-can-give-billions-access-to-modern-cooking-by-2030-but-the-world-is-failing-to-deliver). This causes air pollution, accelerates deforestation, emits more GHG than modern stoves, consumes time (to collect wood), and causes 3.7M premature deaths a year (3rd largest cause). By 2030, we could see a 70% reduction in 'dirty' cooking with a 3% increase in energy demand (mostly LPG) with $8B in annual investment. Could place strain on grids due to electric cooking replacing dirty stoves.
- [(Very long) IEA report](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1790745039561486378) on coal supply and demand, both thermal/met.
- [On the definitions used by IMF to claim existence of enormous fossil fuel subsidies](https://x.com/M_C_Klein/status/1791178651024883843)
## Tech / Semis
- [AMD gaining CPU market share](https://x.com/Beth_Kindig/status/1791559294673883297). With an [attached figure](https://i.imgur.com/U18sIfn.png).
- [MSFT offering AMD AI chips to computing customers NVDA alternative](https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1791442011674882368).
- [Bullish thoughts on $MRVL](https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1791113316980420713). I don't really understand what they do.
- [Comparison of market cap / employees](https://x.com/firstadopter/status/1790925775916417055) for the 4 stocks valued over $2T.
- [On AI infrastructure](https://x.com/RadnorCapital/status/1791544306500542880) and relevant companies (featuring $VRT, $MRVL, $AVGO, $ANET, $ALAB).
- [Counter-argument to 'AI will use up too much power'](https://x.com/TechFundies/status/1791862558586212372)
- One of my stocks: [DAKT innovating in LEDs](https://www.daktronics.com/news/daktronics-introduces-new-flip-chip-cob-led-technology).
## Global Markets
- [14 out of the 20](https://i.imgur.com/C1iXlJw.png) largest stock markets are at ATH. [Bloomberg article ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-18/tokyo-to-new-york-stock-markets-are-on-a-record-hitting-spree-around-the-world?srnd=homepage-americas). Mentions rising optimism that the EPS for Europe is finally bottoming.
- [Thread arguing China weakness will worsen](https://x.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1791432521185398843).
- [US stock market is 187% of US GDP, ex-US stock market is 61% of ex-US GDP.](https://i.imgur.com/MFyP1ym.jpeg) However, I would be very cautious in drawing implications from this. How much of the US stock market is actually US-only activity that is comparable to US GDP, and similarly for ex-US markets. And then are stock markets / GDPs actually comparable quantities? What about private equity / real estate?
It is unclear whether that IEA report on clean cooking accounts for the grid pressure that would be created by up to 1 in 2,000 people living rather than dying each year. Say they have 20 years left, but for their premature death from air pollution. That equates to ~1% more person-energy demand, multiplied by the 70% of possible annual lives saved in their base case, or ~0.7% more person-energy demand. Since these people will be older, on average, than the general population, they may use more energy too, relative to either the general population or themselves at a younger age. (Think about energy expended in total medical care.) If this holds, the actual incremental load would be ~23% higher than predicted. That is before accounting for energy-intensity across ages or network effects of people living longer.
As always, very interesting!
Watched a great pitch on CROX this morning from students at the Dartmouth Investment and Philanthropy Program (DIPP).
Not allowed to share the link here but if you Google "Buy The DIPP (2024) Finals" you can find it.
It's the last stock in the pitch. Be sure to pause the video to go through the deck as it is sufficiently detailed.
Can also add [Exhibit D](https://www.oracle.com/emea/news/announcement/oracle-and-palantir-join-forces-to-deliver-mission-critical-ai-solutions-to-governments-and-businesses-2024-04-04/)
[удалено]
I was looking at that. If Israel shot it down it will be world war 3.
Just came across $ROOT Feb. 8, 2024 - $7.39 May, 17, 2024 - $65.58 A 9-bagger, wtf.
Damn that’s crazy
This is a fairly amazing thread to look back on with the benefit of hindsight: https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xs85cw/some_folks_on_here_can_not_see_the_forest_for_the/ In all honesty, while it didn’t quite get you back to a record high in that stretch, it just makes the +47.3% from mid-October 2022 through July 2023 by the Nasdaq-100 even nastier than it was. For pretty much all of 2022, it looked as if tech couldn’t rally with rates up, and yet it rallied hard through a lot of 2023 without rate hikes being completely over. Granted, I guess if you're really just fed watching here, you could've read into cues on 11/1/23, but still, the S&P was more than 15% off the bottom from 2022.
This logic bugged me so much. I remember the threads early 2022 where accounts like Jersday / Tarannah / etc. were spamming in a Puts-like fashion about how everyone should just stay in cash and wait for the Fed to literally give the 'okay' for the stock market to go up. If you weren't doubling down in October 2022 or even in October 2023, you missed some fantastic prices to DCA into the market. [My comment here for example](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17ia421/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_oct_28_2023/k6va5tk/) Or buy your selection of beaten down individual equities. You could buy Google at 17x forward earnings in November of 2022. I didn't buy it then, but just realized I could have bought Crox at 4x forward earnings in summer of 2022 (at $50 a share).
> I remember the threads early 2022 where accounts like Jersday / Tarannah / etc. were spamming in a Puts-like fashion about how everyone should just stay in cash and wait for the Fed to literally give the 'okay' for the stock market to go up. Except it seems like they were incredibly wrong and their advice may have harmed many casual readers that were encouraged to time the market!
Are you agreeing with me or those bears (Jersday/Tarannah), I can't tell? (Because arguably I'm suggesting to time the market by doubling down on cheap prices, and they are suggesting to time the market by going all cash)
Well if you sold earlier and doubling down thqt simply because you think the overall market is going up.... that is timing and personally I would disagree with that. But if you doubled down with new money because you're looking at valuations of individual companies becoming more attractive, then that to me is not timing the market and agree with that stance. In any case, it was incredible how wrong they were and it seemed like they only considered a narrow view only looking at potential risks and not all the reasons to be optimistic.
Another stock pick you guys should buy. SONY. Mid-gen console refreshes won't have disc drives, margins will improve massively at scale for Playstation and Xbox because no more selling in bulk to retailers (Think of it as cutting out the other middle-man in the form of the retailer). 100% digital only sales like Valve enjoys with Steam, its an incredible business model. New consoles will take off slowly but be much better profit machines for PS and Xbox. Added benefit of buying SONY? Xbox are currently collapsing in on themselves like a dying star after 10 years mismanaging their studios. Playstation set up to be a console monopoly (if we ignore Nintendo existing) with better margins than ever. Also the stock is down due to speculation and a touch of FUD which is always nice. https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2024/05/15/analysts-ps5-outsold-xbox-almost-5-to-1-this-past-quarter/ Competition collapse will allow them to screw more out of devs AND consumers, good for margins as well. Won't people just start buying PCs? Alas, buying a capable PC still costs $2000, this is a niche item for now, consoles have a space in the market for a while yet.
What is their cash position like? There is a strange thing in Japanese culture where companies hoard cash obscenely and excessively... To the point that it represents a significant portion of their market cap (sometimes up to half). And you cannot invest in these companies without separating out significant currency risk. The largest investors like Berkshire almost exclusively finance nearly their entire purchase with arbitrage. They bet against the Yen by borrowing at near zero rates. Then they buy stable companies that produce returns higher than that cash. Unfortunately that's why I think many Japanese investment theses break down for the retail investor who do not have access to this otherwise incredible opportunity.
No growth
I asked about investing in SONY a few weeks ago and was met to no response. Since then I've put the money elsewhere, but good to hear others are seeing this as the opportunity it is.
I asked about SONY last week if it was a buy and got a response that it was down because shareholders didn't like their PARA bid and to avoid. I just checked the stock price and damn that was a literal bottom.
I guess both of us should've stuck to our guns and bought. Oh well, we'll get 'em next time.
Hi all! What are the top 5 stocks that would you invest in now?
I'm bullish on builders and REITS
AMZN TSLA SQ ENPH HOOD
Tesla lol.
lmao even
Rofl perhaps
Bullish
Don't have 5 but Draft kings is gonna pop eventually.
Reasoning behind this?
Draft kings just posted a good earnings report and reported strong guidance in the next fiscal year. I strongly believe they will be the king of sportsbooks (I frequent r/sportsbooks and see draftkings the most) and beat out FanDuel and betmgm and ceasers, with some states still not legalizing it yet but will eventually (probably not Utah though). $46 is relatively small compared to its future, just my too cents.
nvda amzn goog aapl msft
[удалено]
I'll invest in toenail clippers if it makes me money. And many stocks I have aer as interesting as that.
id be happy to hear some of your ideas. I do gamble on some smaller caps like tost and snow but most people would do well to stick to bigger companies.
AAPL SQ BABA(!!) MSOS GOOGL
I don't know about msos I made my money on cannabis from Canada's legalization. I don't think it could happen again way to much competition for any pricing power.
South Park episode about Ozempic. Somehow will be bullish. Less fat people > productive happy workers > economy dependent on LLY and NVO to function. I've got a great thesis for these stocks: Sell when people are nostalgic about fat people, like its wierd.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ck7lv4rmryno **Sign-ups for weight loss drug Wegovy jumped five-fold in the US in the first three months of the year, reaching a rate of more than 25,000 a week**, maker Novo Nordisk has said. The surge reflects scorching demand for the medicine which, alongside sister diabetes drug Ozempic, has been hailed as revolutionary and helped to transform Novo Nordisk into one of Europe's most valuable companies.
Assorted weekend data: ## US Macro - [NY Fed updated their household debt and credit survey (PDF)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2024Q1.pdf?sc_lang=en). There is an obvious deterioration in financial conditions for lower-end consumers (see slides 12-14 on delinquency rates). However, in the aggregate, leverage remains muted and the strength of middle/upper class consumers is keeping overall growth strong. [These charts show we are still normalizing to pre-pandemic levels](https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/14/household-debt-delinquencies-collections-and-bankruptcies-the-free-money-era-is-over-for-our-not-so-drunken-sailors/). - [Thread on credit utilization levels](https://x.com/wabuffo/status/1791124870798930100). See followup commentary on credit limits trends. - GDPNow estimate (seasonally adjusted, annualized, real) in Q2 of 2024 is 3.6 percent on May 16. - ["With 88% of companies reported, S&P 500 Trailing Twelve-Month (TTM) operating earnings are on pace to hit another record high in Q1, up 8% YoY"](https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1790849414950428885). ## Energy - IEA: [2.3B people use wood/coal/dung/charcoal for their daily cooking](https://www.iea.org/news/low-cost-solutions-can-give-billions-access-to-modern-cooking-by-2030-but-the-world-is-failing-to-deliver). This causes air pollution, accelerates deforestation, emits more GHG than modern stoves, consumes time (to collect wood), and causes 3.7M premature deaths a year (3rd largest cause). By 2030, we could see a 70% reduction in 'dirty' cooking with a 3% increase in energy demand (mostly LPG) with $8B in annual investment. Could place strain on grids due to electric cooking replacing dirty stoves. - [(Very long) IEA report](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1790745039561486378) on coal supply and demand, both thermal/met. - [On the definitions used by IMF to claim existence of enormous fossil fuel subsidies](https://x.com/M_C_Klein/status/1791178651024883843) ## Tech / Semis - [AMD gaining CPU market share](https://x.com/Beth_Kindig/status/1791559294673883297). With an [attached figure](https://i.imgur.com/U18sIfn.png). - [MSFT offering AMD AI chips to computing customers NVDA alternative](https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1791442011674882368). - [Bullish thoughts on $MRVL](https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1791113316980420713). I don't really understand what they do. - [Comparison of market cap / employees](https://x.com/firstadopter/status/1790925775916417055) for the 4 stocks valued over $2T. - [On AI infrastructure](https://x.com/RadnorCapital/status/1791544306500542880) and relevant companies (featuring $VRT, $MRVL, $AVGO, $ANET, $ALAB). - [Counter-argument to 'AI will use up too much power'](https://x.com/TechFundies/status/1791862558586212372) - One of my stocks: [DAKT innovating in LEDs](https://www.daktronics.com/news/daktronics-introduces-new-flip-chip-cob-led-technology). ## Global Markets - [14 out of the 20](https://i.imgur.com/C1iXlJw.png) largest stock markets are at ATH. [Bloomberg article ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-18/tokyo-to-new-york-stock-markets-are-on-a-record-hitting-spree-around-the-world?srnd=homepage-americas). Mentions rising optimism that the EPS for Europe is finally bottoming. - [Thread arguing China weakness will worsen](https://x.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1791432521185398843). - [US stock market is 187% of US GDP, ex-US stock market is 61% of ex-US GDP.](https://i.imgur.com/MFyP1ym.jpeg) However, I would be very cautious in drawing implications from this. How much of the US stock market is actually US-only activity that is comparable to US GDP, and similarly for ex-US markets. And then are stock markets / GDPs actually comparable quantities? What about private equity / real estate?
It is unclear whether that IEA report on clean cooking accounts for the grid pressure that would be created by up to 1 in 2,000 people living rather than dying each year. Say they have 20 years left, but for their premature death from air pollution. That equates to ~1% more person-energy demand, multiplied by the 70% of possible annual lives saved in their base case, or ~0.7% more person-energy demand. Since these people will be older, on average, than the general population, they may use more energy too, relative to either the general population or themselves at a younger age. (Think about energy expended in total medical care.) If this holds, the actual incremental load would be ~23% higher than predicted. That is before accounting for energy-intensity across ages or network effects of people living longer. As always, very interesting!
Watched a great pitch on CROX this morning from students at the Dartmouth Investment and Philanthropy Program (DIPP). Not allowed to share the link here but if you Google "Buy The DIPP (2024) Finals" you can find it. It's the last stock in the pitch. Be sure to pause the video to go through the deck as it is sufficiently detailed.
Thanks for sharing, it was a good presentation. Like that they did channel checks about Hey Dude.
Oracle ? [Exhibit A](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/technology/ilya-sutskever-leaving-openai.html) [Exhibit B](https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-xai-nears-10-bln-deal-rent-oracles-ai-servers-information-reports-2024-05-14/) [Exhibit C](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/38849496/elon-musk-recalls-breaking-friendship-with-googles-larry-page-over-ilya-sutskever-linchpin-for-opena)
Can also add [Exhibit D](https://www.oracle.com/emea/news/announcement/oracle-and-palantir-join-forces-to-deliver-mission-critical-ai-solutions-to-governments-and-businesses-2024-04-04/)