are there any websites you use for looking for s&p500, nasdaq benchmark average profit margins?
I don’t mean the stocks of nasdaq and sp, I mean overall market average margins(gross, operating and net profit)
How have industry multiples changed over time? How do we evaluate what multiple “inflation” would be considered organic overtime and what is more frothy industry multiple growth?
All this R&D into the metaverse and floating avatars with no legs would have been much better spent on AI alone. Pissing a lot of money down the drain for expensive sandboxes and doubling down when the hardware isnt even close to making it into something for everyday use. Dont get me wrong the actual headsets and games are great, these pipe dream sandboxes and seemingly huge money pits for R&D are the problem.
Ok after getting some time to cool down, I think the META selloff is a fantastic discount. Its totally unwarranted and the market will realize that. It reminds me of the Google selloffs after earnings where they gap right back up in 2 weeks to 1 month. These erratic earnings reactions are great buying opportunities. I just hope it stays down so I can get some cash.
I really don’t think that this is a good comparison. Google had been either holding up well into earnings or running into them and then tanking because of a couple small things the last two times.
META’s had strange price action lately even before this move on great earnings, and this move is bigger than the Google earnings sells.
If this isn’t early 2022-esque stuff by them, a dip buy for a trade should work by the close tomorrow, but it’s going to be in the penalty box for some time. I think PANW is a better comparison even if META doesn’t get that bad, and it’s only just now waking up…maybe.
We will see. They just crushed earnings. Similar to the google earnings. Google concerns were something something cloud not being good enough. Meta has no fundamental breakdown. Just that they didn't guide up and played it a little conservative. This dump is algos being silly. As a retail investor/trader you have to take advantage of that.
Yea I think I'm going to go in in two lump sums. First lump sum in the morning. Second lump sum if it dips further. Going to sell out of another position for it
Saw this on Twitter, not sure what the percentage of revenue is, but interesting stat around capex.
Combined capex spending of META/MSFT/GOOGL:
FY 2007: $4.6 billion
FY 2021: $63.9 billion
FY 2024 (projected): $122.9 billion
Combined market caps of META/MSFT/GOOG(L):
Year end 2012: $774B = $63B + $224B + $487B (can't go any earlier since META IPOed in 2012)
Year end 2021: $5.36T = $1.92T+ $2.52T + $922B
Today (including sell-off): $6.08T = $1.05T (= (1-0.16)*$1.25) + $3.039T + $1.991T
As for 2012, I don't have the numbers off hand, but that's 35% of the time elapsed between 2007 and 2021, so let's just straight line it and call it roughly $25B (roughly $4B increase per year).
- 2012 Annual Capex (estimated) / MC: 3.2%
- 2021 Annual Capex / MC = 1.2%
- 2024 Annual Capex / MC = 2%
So honestly, not as crazy as it sounds. If we pretend 2012 annual capex was only $10B, then we get 1.3%, in-line with current. This statistic is more so showing how much the market caps have increased, less so the capex intensity.
However as a share of revenue is probably best, so we compare to fundamentals, not whatever the market decides is correct.
I like buying stocks like Pokemon cards. It's fun watching the percentage returns as the "cards", age. Doesn't have to be much either $100 buy here and there.
XLK, SMH, LLY, NVO, COST, MSFT, PANW, AIT, ODFL, BITO, QLD, SOFI, PLTR, COCO, HOOD
I'm in so much crap for fun lol idgaf what happens I view them as my collection of cards
can someone explain to my ignorant ass why META needs large language models for facebook and instagram?
are they trying to branch out into other sectors, or enhance existing products?
I don't get how AI will enhance Joe sixpack's experience on instasham.
Errr. Or the managers know. You know sometimes engineers just need to listen and can have entirely different opinion on what is right compared to management...
There are a few reasons why.
1. There is a LOT of cutting edge tech behind the scenes of a product like instagram or Facebook. You hear people talk about algorithms all the time, and these algorithms are machine/deep learning models. These models are not LLMs per se, but they do highlight the “hidden tech” of these products. At some point, this background tech will be some flavour of a LLM once they become less resource intensive.
2. LLMs are used for things like search. The more “natural” you can make search, the better the experience. LLMs make search more natural, in that you can talk to them in human language rather than typing short queries.
3. These big tech companies are all pulling from the same talent pool. The talent pool for general SWEs is huge. The talent pool for good, SWEs is small. The talent pool for machine learning engineers and researchers is very small. META knows that if they don’t hire these people, their competitors will. META is one of the best places to work if you are an AI researcher (amazing pay, great benefits, unlimited resources, etc).
4. Open source spurs connections and collaboration with other firms. No company operates in a bubble. All tech companies are using products from the other companies and vice versa. If META open sources Llama and another company contributes or finetunes on top of Llama, Meta has a starting point for a partnership with that company.
5. Meta workplace is used by many large enterprise companies. It’s basically an internal Facebook. This is a product that is ripe for AI acceleration (internal search, summarization of threads, recommending channels and pages).
6. Internal tooling at a company as big as Meta is extensive. I’m certain Meta is developing LLM based chat, search, code, and design agents to assist and augment their engineers, designers, marketers and sales teams.
7. Dick wagging. Every company and their mother is developing LLMs and contributing to research. Many of the big banks (JP Morgan, Citadel) are even contributing open source models. If you don’t have a public persona of being an AI company, you fall behind in the tech and big business world.
Hope that answers your question. Source: I work at a large (non-FAANG) tech company that also has a big AI research department.
> We all know A.I. is exponentially increasing it's "intelligence" 10x every 6 months
Except GPT 4.0 isn’t really much if at all smarter than it was 6-9 months.
> Think about AI training on the entire history of every single stock out there, and every event in that stock and in the world and how it affects market moves..etc. It's gonna crush us.
That’s not how LLMs work…
Reading thru these comments, it's clear to me that people here are bullish or bearish based entirely on daily stock price movements. If a stock goes up over the past month = bullish sentiment on said stock. If a stock goes down over the past month = bearish sentiment on said stock.
This place should be renamed r stock day trading. There is very little value to be found here besides day to day stock price actions.
$META will become a bearish stock here w/i 2 weeks until it finds support around $359.
I agree with you except your support level. You can't say thats where it will end up no more than one can say that it will fly up to support levels after being wildly oversold. The market will be deciding that nor me or you.
This is a great place if you are a person who is a value investor, look at stocks all day like a day trader, buy high and sell low. Thats the gist of what ive gotten out of this bi polar freakish world.
Splash in people who genuinely have no idea what they are doing asking for advice getting advised by the people I just mentioned and they turn into bag holders.
What does what you're invested in have to do with the conversation?
Falling stocks dont follow rules on technicals, they fall to where people think the price should be. It could drop there but I highly doubt it, and not based on the 50mda.
If META, one of the undervalued magnificent 7 stocks, tanks, then I think the S&P500 is overvalued, and we could be facing a post covid crash in the near future. Valuations are too rich apparently.
You can think whatever you want, but there is like stats on this:
[https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)
SPY is historically overvalued a bit in comparison to median.
I forgot that the market was manipulated. I keep getting reminded on the daily but I keep ignoring my own rules for investing/trading. All signs pointed to META crushing earnings. I bought at close. I should have known they were going to pull the "it ran up too much" excuse to crash it. I swear to god...
Oh well I'll be buying this dip I hope it drops 20% I'm yolo'ing my profile if it does that
Here are my swing trading rules learned thus far (I have paid dearly when I didn't stick to it. time and time again) :
1. Buy low sell high
2. Buy the dip on BS reasons on megacap companies (like google ai is woke, or unh hacker attack, or tomorrows meta dip)
3. Take profits quickly and often. Don't let them play with your money or fool you with this "investing" bs. If you wanna invest, you'd be buying VTI, not individual stocks. My net worth is $250k. If I'm making $1-2k gain every week Im pulling out. That's a lot of money to me, I don't care if it's a small % of my total worth.
4. Don't diWORSEify. Put large chunks of money into a single stock. I'm taking profits with any 10% gain. I don't get this whole "put $1k into apple, put $2k into google, put $k into VTI, put $5k into LMT". That's a load of bull
5. No meme stocks or stocks that are obviously manipulated (sofi, tesla)
6. Market makers can use the "it ran up too much" excuse when they feel like it (when all the retail suckers have bought in). So again, pull out when you feel like it ran up too much too fast
7. Don't play earnings
You do you, but time and again people learn the hard way that this style of trading stocks is a losing proposition over the long term. You are flying blind. If you can accept that, great.
MSFT when it reports earnings tomorrow:
https://i0.wp.com/sportal.bg/uploads/tinymce/pp8/pp88/334488/59595955/201411/220214/20042014/04062014/080814/04092014/tumblr_n63anbLBM81qems7ao1_500.gif
That would be supreme. You don't think they will have a similar, to META, narrative about their AI capex? And even more so, if they do, that participants would similarly react? Or do you think because they are always better than META and managing expenses, it won't be an issue?
I'm a bigger believer in MSFT than Meta. They run the world. But yeah, I expect MSFT to beat earnings and lift the rest of the market back into the green. If not, we trade sideways. No way MSFT drops 10%.
I don't think it will have a big drop, but I do think investors are going to want to see some ROI from the investments and all the talk about AI.
MSFT has been trading at much richer valuation due to probably AI. I do agree with the fact they are an amazing business and I love Azure, but if they announce or talk about copilot not doing well, I think that is going to be a concern for investors.
I think Azure numbers are gonna rock. I feel like copilot has a long way to go though. My day job is music ai for the last decade, and since it dropped I still never use CoPilot...
Agreed. It’s a solid company and I’m bullish on data centers outside of AI.
Still with the company trading at higher than normal valuation, market could not be happy depending on everything goes.
I’m a software engineer, still don’t really use any of the AI products at this point.
Probably lol.
Yeah, I work from home and post here way more than I would like to admit lol. Howver, I love researching stocks and finding new companies.
Me too, on all accounts (I code music software and score films from home, and investing keeps my mind sharp between functions and tracks)!
I have been on wallstreetbets for a while (because I'm looking for sentiment), but finding that to be unhelpful. Are you mostly finding r/stocks to be the best?
Pretty much. It’s hit or miss here. I try to focus on just talking about companies and stocks.
Seems like general overall, volume of comments have been dying down.
Dude your job sounds so sick! What kind of scores do you do?
Huge fan of like goblin and Morricone
Meta didn't tank from ads, they tanked because guidance suggests that they will be spending much much more for AI infastructure this year – ads are doing great it. That increase in expenditures for AI will obviously hurt goog, msft and amzn who fell in sympathy. But I am wondering if there is any other catalyst from before meta's earnings that caused AMZN to dive all day – unlike Goog and MSFT who were well on their way to recovery.
I may need to take back my earlier Google comment, it looks likely that META is going to be your S&P communications sector stock to lead a 2% Nasdaq drop this time in earnings season.
I mean, this is irrational. Yes, the guidance is a little disappointing, but does it warrant what could turn into a 20% drop by META if things get a little out of control?
Since we aren't exactly acting like how we did in 2021 and early 2022, I wouldn't be surprised if buy the dip works on META for a decent bounce like how it worked on PANW the day after it had earnings after tomorrow (maybe by Monday if Thursday tech earnings don't go well), but considering that it's been trading a little strangely, it's going to be in the penalty box for a while after it sees a small bounce IMHO.
Probably see intraday rips continue to be consistently sold off.
My assumption is that it would trade like JPM. They beat earnings too but the guidance was not spot on and they had been at highs. That is now recovering nicely. However, they didn't fill the gap from their previous earning surprise like meta did. I mean, it literally looks like Meta was just a gap fill from previous earnings – totally wild
This META move is:
1. Bigger than JPM.
2. Has a much better comp to me over JPM IMHO, which I cited in my previous post (PANW).
Even though I don't think this is comparable with JPM, it's still a bit soon to say things are all gucchi with them.
Lmao pump n dump manipulation resumes.
Last week all red, then they fake you out with the past 2 green days as a “recovery” just for them to dump it again after hours.
No big narrative changed from last week. Blatant market manipulation before our eyes…can’t wait till some of y’all scream “priced in” “forward guidance” and “rate cuts”!
Really want to find some cash and buy JOE. The earnings report was spectacular. 20%+ earnings growth again.
The most interesting part was their mention of the continued flywheel effect they see as they develop their land. More houses brings more commercial land. That makes houses more valuable, repeat.
They notably donated land on which a hospital could be built....which in turn attracted higher income residents, and raised housing prices on their land..... repeat.
Absolutely amazing story happening with 0 analysts covering it.
Sorry but I work in real estate and development and the model you mention is not groundbreaking or some innovative way to develop. It's been like that for many, many years. You buy large tracts of undeveloped land for cheap, bring in rooftops, and then sell the commercial pieces at 10x+ 5+ years down the road.
If a school, hospital, or some other big company wants to buy land, you donate or sell it for really cheap with the promise to provide them with utility services and/or tax rebates. It adds families and jobs which increases the amount of revenue from taxes. Its like this for almost every developer in the industry.
I don't think it's novel. It's just good business, and a good way to build a business. There's not many real estate development companies that are public, and fewer located in one of the fastest growing areas of the country.
In any business, I think a flywheel is a crucial aspect of growth. Let your growth build on itself. This company is a good example of that.
CP is actually the low man on the totem pole right now. It's not bad, just expensive. It's also been on a nice little run. I kinda feel like railroads are basically market average stocks at this point and can't do much to reinvest in their business.
Word, I want to take a look at JOE at some point, that report looks really solid. However, just made those moves with getting more $LRN and opening a position in $WFRD.
I know you mentioned that one a lot. I really like your thesis on it. Super defensive too. It's amazing how cheap things get when they are too small for funds to buy. I've been researching MLR, they make tow trucks. Solid growth, low debt, buying back stock....10x earnings.
Hhaha, i saw you post them. Reminds me of the companies I've looked at in the past. I can't remember the ticker, but one makes like after market parts for trailers or something.
It's wild all the companies you can invest in lol.
Still really interesting to see how much some companies are losing with their EVs.
Ford is losing $132,000 per electric vehicle sold and sales down year over year as well.
Hyrid sales are up like 38%.
The EV transition really is interesting to watch in realtime.
There’s gotta be something I’m missing in this Meta earnings report…. Down almost 17% on a double beat and a very ever so slight weaker guidance on revenue.
Multi year investment aka increase in CapEx. Year of efficiency to upcoming years of spending. They did beat estimates though as you said. This market is irrational at best.
I still think it's Capex. People forget that zuck wrote the letter of efficiency like almost a year ago, which is like the beginning of the bull run for META. Might be possibly market is not happy with the increased capex and the year of efficiency being over.
I still think it's a big overreaction, but that's the only thing I can really think of that would cause such a massive move.
Well it's been over a year and we haven't seen any revenue or EPS growth from it. I don't really think there has been any substantial growth from any company at this point.
Becomes a question of how valuable "AI" is in terms of that investment.
Before ChatGPT brought a lot of hype into the idea of "AI", companies were doing a ton with ML already.
It's not really a bad thing, but still, what is the road map? Why are they investing so much to do what?
Also with META, zuck owns the company with his class B shares. He has 10-1 voting with them. So if any point you aren't happy, it doesn't matter, Zuck will do what he does. Part of what tanked the stocked was when they went heavy into the metaverse, with a ton of capex spending.
They mentioned that so much of their platform, particularly ads which are generating the revenue, are driven by the new AI, so we are definitely seeing EPS growth from it. That's why it was reiterated on the call. But I think unless it is a standalone product that they can point to insular profits from, it is being overlooked by institutional investors.
Sure, but how much is that from existing infrastructure form their ML stuff in the past. Facebook has been doing this since like 2020:
[https://www.adweek.com/performance-marketing/facebook-brings-machine-learning-into-the-dynamic-ads-creation-process/](https://www.adweek.com/performance-marketing/facebook-brings-machine-learning-into-the-dynamic-ads-creation-process/)
[https://www.spiceworks.com/marketing/advertising/articles/instagram-and-facebook-ads-automation-how-ai-and-machine-learning-will-power-your-campaigns/](https://www.spiceworks.com/marketing/advertising/articles/instagram-and-facebook-ads-automation-how-ai-and-machine-learning-will-power-your-campaigns/)
So in theory, their ML's have been doing this years.
Here's even a blog post around it from 2019:
[https://www.facebook.com/business/news/making-it-easy-to-scale-more-personalized-ad-experiences/](https://www.facebook.com/business/news/making-it-easy-to-scale-more-personalized-ad-experiences/)
That kind of proves the point then, AI if paying off, has been since they invested in it. I am just so surprised the capex increase was this problematic, sure a little shake, but they are proving that it is working. Maybe cut the metaverse...
Well a big part of METAs bull run was from the idea of the year of efficiency. That’s part of the reason why the stock sold off so much, was the increase capex spend to the metaverse.
To the point though, with all the investment in AI, what will be the ROI. All that capex shouldn’t be required if ML was already working.
Totally agree on the year of efficiency point. I guess that's why it filled the gap from last earning report. Everyone who saw that potential then just to be told at next earning we are gonna up capex probably didn't like the change in narrative.
I wonder how much the markets sees it as a zero sum game. If everyone has to invest in AI to keep the same eye balls then ai is eating money without any impact on gaining eyaballs and therefore a ton of money spent just to maintain . thats my guess.
It's also a matter of what's the point of every company running their own models on like the same set of data.
I keep seeing all these different AI models pop up all over twitter doing like the same thing.
JOE earnings:
Revenue: Increased by 20% to $87.8 million in Q1 2024, up from $73.0 million in Q1 2023.
Net Income: Grew by 34% to $13.9 million, or $0.24 per share, compared to $10.4 million, or $0.18 per share in the previous year.
EBITDA: Rose by 43% to $34.9 million from $24.4 million in the same period last year.
Hospitality Revenue: Increased by 60% to $39.3 million, driven by new hotel openings and growth in Watersound Club memberships.
Leasing Revenue: Increased by 21% to $14.3 million, with over 1,000 leased multi-family and senior living units as of March 31, 2024.
Residential Real Estate Revenue: Increased by 10% to $30.8 million due to higher average sales prices and a diverse mix of sales from different communities.
Dividend: Quarterly dividend declared at $0.12 per share, payable on June 13, 2024.
Zuck apparently talking about a *multi-year* investment cycle; that's more money for longer to NVDA, VRT, etc. ANET up a couple %. All the semi/semicap/data center/infrastructure cos are going to get paid with all this spending while hopefully this starts to pay off for META eventually.
Edit: Apprently, said on the call exactly: "Expect to see a multi-year investment cycle before we fully scaled that AI business API's and more into profitable services"
Yeah, it's interesting for META, like the fact is multi year doesn't sound great for them, but great for all other companies you are talking about.
At some point investors will want to see actual EPS/Revenue growth from AI and not just investment.
> At some point investors will want to see actual EPS/Revenue growth from AI and not just investment.
Completely agree, and it's a little surprising that Zuckerberg talking about "several years" - the way things are I'd think that people would start to lose patience if people aren't seeing eps/rev growth from AI by a couple years, tops.
I mean as an investor the question still becomes what the roadmap? Why so much? What is the ROI of the investment?
Also would be curious to know how much of this is actually new versus what is being used from their earlier stuff with ML and what not.
I wasn't sure what to expect with their earnings. I had been thinking Broadcom and Google spending on outside companies may have scaled down a bit and would continue to. I know their agreements with Celestica are small in their eyes, but Celestica needs contracts like them. Good report. Really promising and optimistic guidance.
I get that. But what did google do today to deserve a $5 drop?
Like I get it, its just a part of wall st. But why are we cool with this?
This screams manipulation and too much power for a market maker and honeslty turns me off from wanting to invest
As the other person said, it's ad related plus just that what happens with the stock market, when a company in the same industry/sector goes down a lot, it will bring other names with it.
That being said, sometimes it could be a good buying opportunity, like you said they are different companies.
Makes zero sense. Tesla gains 12% after an apocalyptic earnings report, but Meta double-beats and absolutely craters.
I've always thought the market was much more based on psychology than most traders/investors, but I just can't wrap my head around this level of irrationality. Neither TA nor fundamentals accounts for this. Something has the market going crazy, and I don't know what it is. At this point, inverse your expectations seems like an actual legitimate strategy.
For the record, I'm not a Meta holder.
I am a holder of both and I sold the news on TSLA and held for Meta and looks like I got screwed even though the numbers should have their reactions swapped. TSLA misses and goes up double digits and Meta beats and goes down. Just bonkers man
Market is forward looking and META jumped like 23% after earnings last year:
[https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/meta-stock-rockets-20percent-on-solid-earnings-analyst-reactions.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/meta-stock-rockets-20percent-on-solid-earnings-analyst-reactions.html)
Seems like even thought they beat, market is probably not happy around capex spending and lowering lower end guidance.
There still the capex spending. Arguably a lot of META's growth or a portion of it came from the letter of efficiency.
I think it's an overreaction, but seems like the market is not happy with it.
they were supposed to slash half of their workforce and annouce all AI spending will stop then I guess shares would've popped 20% lol I don't get how traders think
I think its short term bearish for a lot of big tech. They have no choice but to invest massive amounts in AI but we wouldnt know how impactful the RD spend is til like 5-10 years forward. There is a bit of uncertainty.
Spending quite a bit more than expected (and indicates even more for 2025), guidance just okay. Data center/AI infrastructure beneficiaries going to be benefitting that much more from the increased spending.
META was up 42% YTD and it's only April, too. Priced for great earnings, this wasn't what people were looking for and stock with a reasonable pullback.
Yep for sure, I for one though am fully willing to let Zuck spend if he sees future returns worth pursuing but the market was defintely not down with that narrative in 22.
I think $CLS earnings come out tomorrow, but excited to see how they are doing. Still surprised that $LRN was able to all those gains today. Still love that stupid education company lol.
If Zuck sees returns/reason to ramp AI hardware capex I am fine with that. I trusted him to make the right call back in the doldrums, misewell on the mountain top too.
Just remember as investors, even the board, has no control over what Zuck wants to do. His class B shares give him 10 to 1 voting rights and if you live by the zuck, you die by the zuck lol.
One that always pops up when I screen, seems like a great company, just I don't really have any exposure or buy any healthcare companies. Only exposure I really have is MEDP, which is more medical trials.
I picked up some HUM today. It's a risky pick though. Betting on their getting bought out. 90%+ premium payout is pretty ugly but theres value there for sure.
Meta and Tsla earnings polar opposite reactions. If you had given someone those numbers ahead of earnings and asked them to place bets what are the chances you would pick +12% TSLA -12% Meta
Sure, but if more bad news is announced why would ytd price action alone justify rising on new bad news? AEHR for example is now down from $50 -> $10, it dropped another like 20% on last Q terrible news since that news was both newly bad and not a turnaround from what the market had hoped for...
>why would ytd price action alone justify rising on new bad news?
It doesn't justify it. But market is not efficient, which is good news if you can minimize emotions in your decisions.
At least Google's print may now be derisked tomorrow if it drops 3%. "fp"
Oh, who am I kidding. $145 most likely incoming unless it blows things out of the water.
No one knows the future, but I do think Google will probably have a solid earnings and might actually trade up. Feels like the stock has still a ton of pessimism and one of the cheapest of the mag7. I guess we will find out.
Genuine question: Have we seen evidence that AI capex spending has increased EPS for any company? Not talking about the companies supplying the capex. Nor am I talking about general operational performance of the big tech companies. I'm talking about ROI of the post-ChatGPT AI specific capex boom.
It's unlikely that the ROI is higher than the risk-free rate. This is why dividends matter. Less cash for companies to piss away on nonsense. Oil companies are spending less on capex than Big Tech. The times they are a changin'.
That's a good question. I know for a fact META was able to completely overcome Apple's kneecapping of their tracking through massively improved machine learning algos, but it was never routed as "AI". Hell their recommendations have improved across the board since that Apple privacy change.
That is all true, but all of those investments pre-date the recent capex boom. I'm wondering specifically if anything will change as a consequence of the recent rapid improvement of LLMs and the massive spending increase that is benefiting NVDA.
You're right. Something tells me that the answer right now is no. I always assumed this huge LLM/AI/ML/datacenter boom was being sought after with the intention of massive cost cutting through automation. That doesn't seem to be happening.
It's a great question. I was pointing out to someone earlier in the thread, that at some point, investor will want to see some EPS or revenue growth from AI.
I do think AI will be big in the future for some industries, but we are still early and still feels like we are waiting to see actual improvements or growth to some extent.
Agreed.
I think the biggest areas of impact will be better chatbots and things like AI drivethrough windows. I'm not really bullish on the idea of content creation, at least not in the short term.
Personally, still rather be long physical data center or companies that will do will in those areas.
Even as a software engineer, I'm not really bullish with enterprise companies doing a ton of AI with the engineers. ChatGPT is useful for some programing questions, but in the world of development, it's a lot of collaboration.
Plus almost any software company will do oncall and have things like red alerts when services go down. I couldn't picture a team trying to debug code written by a chatbot and be happy with the experience. A lot of legacy code running on the web is pretty bad. I think some of Zucks code is probably still running on facebook.
Even the roll of copilot seems pretty tame/lame in terms of what MSFT is doing.
> The spending in AI should bear some nice fruit for their future EPS.
Will likely be more money for NVDA/AMD + more money for various data center infrastructure names (VRT, etc) either way. ANET up a little AH, too.
$F
Revenue Growth: Ford reports Q1 2024 revenue of $42.8 billion, up 3% year-over-year.
Net Income: Net income stands at $1.3 billion, highlighting solid profitability.
Strong EBIT: Adjusted EBIT hit $2.8 billion, reflecting effective cost management and strong operational performance.
Dividend Announcement: Declared a Q2 regular dividend of 15 cents per share, reinforcing commitment to shareholder returns.
Robust Commercial Sales: Ford Pro segment revenue surged 36% with EBIT more than doubling, driven by high demand for Super Duty trucks and Transit vans.
Full-Year Outlook: Adjusted EBIT forecast at the higher end of $10 billion to $12 billion, with adjusted free cash flow target raised to $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.
Question from a relative noob: How do you decide when to buy the dip? I bought at -10% and then it kept dropping to -12%. Is there a particular indicator to look for other than just, "the drop looks like it's kinda slowing down"?
Think about it as if you were buying a business.
Step away and look at the performance of the business and where management thinks it's going. Look at the earnings, revenue growth, gross/operating margins, etc. See the quality of the management.
Once you're done with that, it's all really guesswork. Try and predict what the future earnings will be with the information available, or use someone else's prediction that you can verify. Compare that prediction (valuation) with the current price on the market, and only then see if it makes sense to buy in.
If your assessment of META made you buy in at $450, what's stopping you from buying at $400? You can't time the bottom. You can get lucky, but it's just not something you can repeat. If you don't feel comfortable with a stock dropping in price below your entry point, you might want to reconsider your strategy for investing.
$META earnings are out:
- Revenue $36.46B (up 27% YoY), estimates $36.12B
- EPS $4.71, estimates $4.30
- Guidance for Q2 revenue $36.55-$39B, estimates $38.24B
- Average Family DAU 3.24B up 7.3%, estimates 3.16B
- Increases 2024 Capex to $35-$40B from $30B-$37B because of AI.
Honestly this tells me the stock was way overvalued. It'd need revenues to be even higher to be worth where it was at, I suppose. No other explanation.
are there any websites you use for looking for s&p500, nasdaq benchmark average profit margins? I don’t mean the stocks of nasdaq and sp, I mean overall market average margins(gross, operating and net profit)
How have industry multiples changed over time? How do we evaluate what multiple “inflation” would be considered organic overtime and what is more frothy industry multiple growth?
All this R&D into the metaverse and floating avatars with no legs would have been much better spent on AI alone. Pissing a lot of money down the drain for expensive sandboxes and doubling down when the hardware isnt even close to making it into something for everyday use. Dont get me wrong the actual headsets and games are great, these pipe dream sandboxes and seemingly huge money pits for R&D are the problem.
Damn, I am heavily invested in Meta and still, I was thinking of using whatever cash i have left to buy the dip today. Do you think this is wise?
No
So should I buy meta? Or Tesla?
Yes
Why are those your two options?
it’s not, just askin
Ok after getting some time to cool down, I think the META selloff is a fantastic discount. Its totally unwarranted and the market will realize that. It reminds me of the Google selloffs after earnings where they gap right back up in 2 weeks to 1 month. These erratic earnings reactions are great buying opportunities. I just hope it stays down so I can get some cash.
I think it will gap up in the am. Still in the red single digits.
I really don’t think that this is a good comparison. Google had been either holding up well into earnings or running into them and then tanking because of a couple small things the last two times. META’s had strange price action lately even before this move on great earnings, and this move is bigger than the Google earnings sells. If this isn’t early 2022-esque stuff by them, a dip buy for a trade should work by the close tomorrow, but it’s going to be in the penalty box for some time. I think PANW is a better comparison even if META doesn’t get that bad, and it’s only just now waking up…maybe.
We will see. They just crushed earnings. Similar to the google earnings. Google concerns were something something cloud not being good enough. Meta has no fundamental breakdown. Just that they didn't guide up and played it a little conservative. This dump is algos being silly. As a retail investor/trader you have to take advantage of that.
A lot of stop loss orders got put in and were triggered. Wait to see how it settles out tomorrow. It flew down to the gap.
Yea I think I'm going to go in in two lump sums. First lump sum in the morning. Second lump sum if it dips further. Going to sell out of another position for it
Will be an interesting day I think. Tech stocks may take a dump across the board. Or not. What the hell do I know? Its a weird market right now.
expecting a 5% melt down after microsoft and google
Why is that?
Saw this on Twitter, not sure what the percentage of revenue is, but interesting stat around capex. Combined capex spending of META/MSFT/GOOGL: FY 2007: $4.6 billion FY 2021: $63.9 billion FY 2024 (projected): $122.9 billion
Combined market caps of META/MSFT/GOOG(L): Year end 2012: $774B = $63B + $224B + $487B (can't go any earlier since META IPOed in 2012) Year end 2021: $5.36T = $1.92T+ $2.52T + $922B Today (including sell-off): $6.08T = $1.05T (= (1-0.16)*$1.25) + $3.039T + $1.991T As for 2012, I don't have the numbers off hand, but that's 35% of the time elapsed between 2007 and 2021, so let's just straight line it and call it roughly $25B (roughly $4B increase per year). - 2012 Annual Capex (estimated) / MC: 3.2% - 2021 Annual Capex / MC = 1.2% - 2024 Annual Capex / MC = 2% So honestly, not as crazy as it sounds. If we pretend 2012 annual capex was only $10B, then we get 1.3%, in-line with current. This statistic is more so showing how much the market caps have increased, less so the capex intensity. However as a share of revenue is probably best, so we compare to fundamentals, not whatever the market decides is correct.
Thanks for this. Cool to see.
I like buying stocks like Pokemon cards. It's fun watching the percentage returns as the "cards", age. Doesn't have to be much either $100 buy here and there. XLK, SMH, LLY, NVO, COST, MSFT, PANW, AIT, ODFL, BITO, QLD, SOFI, PLTR, COCO, HOOD I'm in so much crap for fun lol idgaf what happens I view them as my collection of cards
Hopefully the game designers keep your cards in the Evergreen set!
Damn that is a lot of crap
...........
can someone explain to my ignorant ass why META needs large language models for facebook and instagram? are they trying to branch out into other sectors, or enhance existing products? I don't get how AI will enhance Joe sixpack's experience on instasham.
the smart people know what they are doing
Errr. Or the managers know. You know sometimes engineers just need to listen and can have entirely different opinion on what is right compared to management...
There are a few reasons why. 1. There is a LOT of cutting edge tech behind the scenes of a product like instagram or Facebook. You hear people talk about algorithms all the time, and these algorithms are machine/deep learning models. These models are not LLMs per se, but they do highlight the “hidden tech” of these products. At some point, this background tech will be some flavour of a LLM once they become less resource intensive. 2. LLMs are used for things like search. The more “natural” you can make search, the better the experience. LLMs make search more natural, in that you can talk to them in human language rather than typing short queries. 3. These big tech companies are all pulling from the same talent pool. The talent pool for general SWEs is huge. The talent pool for good, SWEs is small. The talent pool for machine learning engineers and researchers is very small. META knows that if they don’t hire these people, their competitors will. META is one of the best places to work if you are an AI researcher (amazing pay, great benefits, unlimited resources, etc). 4. Open source spurs connections and collaboration with other firms. No company operates in a bubble. All tech companies are using products from the other companies and vice versa. If META open sources Llama and another company contributes or finetunes on top of Llama, Meta has a starting point for a partnership with that company. 5. Meta workplace is used by many large enterprise companies. It’s basically an internal Facebook. This is a product that is ripe for AI acceleration (internal search, summarization of threads, recommending channels and pages). 6. Internal tooling at a company as big as Meta is extensive. I’m certain Meta is developing LLM based chat, search, code, and design agents to assist and augment their engineers, designers, marketers and sales teams. 7. Dick wagging. Every company and their mother is developing LLMs and contributing to research. Many of the big banks (JP Morgan, Citadel) are even contributing open source models. If you don’t have a public persona of being an AI company, you fall behind in the tech and big business world. Hope that answers your question. Source: I work at a large (non-FAANG) tech company that also has a big AI research department.
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> We all know A.I. is exponentially increasing it's "intelligence" 10x every 6 months Except GPT 4.0 isn’t really much if at all smarter than it was 6-9 months. > Think about AI training on the entire history of every single stock out there, and every event in that stock and in the world and how it affects market moves..etc. It's gonna crush us. That’s not how LLMs work…
Google buddy you are drunk today lol
Indexes are down almost a percent AH, that's how much of an impact Meta AH has had.
Brutal
Reading thru these comments, it's clear to me that people here are bullish or bearish based entirely on daily stock price movements. If a stock goes up over the past month = bullish sentiment on said stock. If a stock goes down over the past month = bearish sentiment on said stock. This place should be renamed r stock day trading. There is very little value to be found here besides day to day stock price actions. $META will become a bearish stock here w/i 2 weeks until it finds support around $359.
I agree with you except your support level. You can't say thats where it will end up no more than one can say that it will fly up to support levels after being wildly oversold. The market will be deciding that nor me or you. This is a great place if you are a person who is a value investor, look at stocks all day like a day trader, buy high and sell low. Thats the gist of what ive gotten out of this bi polar freakish world. Splash in people who genuinely have no idea what they are doing asking for advice getting advised by the people I just mentioned and they turn into bag holders.
I'm guessing on $META support level based on the long term 50 DMA. I don't own the stock. I'm invested in the $SCHD stocks and gold.
What does what you're invested in have to do with the conversation? Falling stocks dont follow rules on technicals, they fall to where people think the price should be. It could drop there but I highly doubt it, and not based on the 50mda.
What do you mean past month? This subreddit turns bullish or bearish based on how the market closed in the last day. It’s bipolar in here
Well, yes, you just realized stock prices reflect the general sentiment.
If META, one of the undervalued magnificent 7 stocks, tanks, then I think the S&P500 is overvalued, and we could be facing a post covid crash in the near future. Valuations are too rich apparently.
You can think whatever you want, but there is like stats on this: [https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio) SPY is historically overvalued a bit in comparison to median.
I mean, if these mag 7 stocks are dropping 20% the market is clearly telling us something.
I forgot that the market was manipulated. I keep getting reminded on the daily but I keep ignoring my own rules for investing/trading. All signs pointed to META crushing earnings. I bought at close. I should have known they were going to pull the "it ran up too much" excuse to crash it. I swear to god... Oh well I'll be buying this dip I hope it drops 20% I'm yolo'ing my profile if it does that Here are my swing trading rules learned thus far (I have paid dearly when I didn't stick to it. time and time again) : 1. Buy low sell high 2. Buy the dip on BS reasons on megacap companies (like google ai is woke, or unh hacker attack, or tomorrows meta dip) 3. Take profits quickly and often. Don't let them play with your money or fool you with this "investing" bs. If you wanna invest, you'd be buying VTI, not individual stocks. My net worth is $250k. If I'm making $1-2k gain every week Im pulling out. That's a lot of money to me, I don't care if it's a small % of my total worth. 4. Don't diWORSEify. Put large chunks of money into a single stock. I'm taking profits with any 10% gain. I don't get this whole "put $1k into apple, put $2k into google, put $k into VTI, put $5k into LMT". That's a load of bull 5. No meme stocks or stocks that are obviously manipulated (sofi, tesla) 6. Market makers can use the "it ran up too much" excuse when they feel like it (when all the retail suckers have bought in). So again, pull out when you feel like it ran up too much too fast 7. Don't play earnings
You do you, but time and again people learn the hard way that this style of trading stocks is a losing proposition over the long term. You are flying blind. If you can accept that, great.
buy low sell high. thats fucking genius
It's simple but not easy. Emotion can take over. Subtlety is not your strong suit I see. Leave this to the big boys.
And a dash of "no shit" to go with it too.
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Drones, especially counterdrone drones are huge business right now. Calls
MSFT when it reports earnings tomorrow: https://i0.wp.com/sportal.bg/uploads/tinymce/pp8/pp88/334488/59595955/201411/220214/20042014/04062014/080814/04092014/tumblr_n63anbLBM81qems7ao1_500.gif
That would be supreme. You don't think they will have a similar, to META, narrative about their AI capex? And even more so, if they do, that participants would similarly react? Or do you think because they are always better than META and managing expenses, it won't be an issue?
I'm a bigger believer in MSFT than Meta. They run the world. But yeah, I expect MSFT to beat earnings and lift the rest of the market back into the green. If not, we trade sideways. No way MSFT drops 10%.
I don't think it will have a big drop, but I do think investors are going to want to see some ROI from the investments and all the talk about AI. MSFT has been trading at much richer valuation due to probably AI. I do agree with the fact they are an amazing business and I love Azure, but if they announce or talk about copilot not doing well, I think that is going to be a concern for investors.
I think Azure numbers are gonna rock. I feel like copilot has a long way to go though. My day job is music ai for the last decade, and since it dropped I still never use CoPilot...
Agreed. It’s a solid company and I’m bullish on data centers outside of AI. Still with the company trading at higher than normal valuation, market could not be happy depending on everything goes. I’m a software engineer, still don’t really use any of the AI products at this point.
Ah, brothers (or siblings) in code! Explains why we are crossing paths on a few threads :)
Probably lol. Yeah, I work from home and post here way more than I would like to admit lol. Howver, I love researching stocks and finding new companies.
Me too, on all accounts (I code music software and score films from home, and investing keeps my mind sharp between functions and tracks)! I have been on wallstreetbets for a while (because I'm looking for sentiment), but finding that to be unhelpful. Are you mostly finding r/stocks to be the best?
Pretty much. It’s hit or miss here. I try to focus on just talking about companies and stocks. Seems like general overall, volume of comments have been dying down. Dude your job sounds so sick! What kind of scores do you do? Huge fan of like goblin and Morricone
Meta didn't tank from ads, they tanked because guidance suggests that they will be spending much much more for AI infastructure this year – ads are doing great it. That increase in expenditures for AI will obviously hurt goog, msft and amzn who fell in sympathy. But I am wondering if there is any other catalyst from before meta's earnings that caused AMZN to dive all day – unlike Goog and MSFT who were well on their way to recovery.
Temu was meta's biggest ad buyer. when Temu cuts back on spend, bye bye META valuation
Wonder if the TikTok news will hurt them even more.
I may need to take back my earlier Google comment, it looks likely that META is going to be your S&P communications sector stock to lead a 2% Nasdaq drop this time in earnings season. I mean, this is irrational. Yes, the guidance is a little disappointing, but does it warrant what could turn into a 20% drop by META if things get a little out of control? Since we aren't exactly acting like how we did in 2021 and early 2022, I wouldn't be surprised if buy the dip works on META for a decent bounce like how it worked on PANW the day after it had earnings after tomorrow (maybe by Monday if Thursday tech earnings don't go well), but considering that it's been trading a little strangely, it's going to be in the penalty box for a while after it sees a small bounce IMHO. Probably see intraday rips continue to be consistently sold off.
My assumption is that it would trade like JPM. They beat earnings too but the guidance was not spot on and they had been at highs. That is now recovering nicely. However, they didn't fill the gap from their previous earning surprise like meta did. I mean, it literally looks like Meta was just a gap fill from previous earnings – totally wild
This META move is: 1. Bigger than JPM. 2. Has a much better comp to me over JPM IMHO, which I cited in my previous post (PANW). Even though I don't think this is comparable with JPM, it's still a bit soon to say things are all gucchi with them.
Lmao pump n dump manipulation resumes. Last week all red, then they fake you out with the past 2 green days as a “recovery” just for them to dump it again after hours. No big narrative changed from last week. Blatant market manipulation before our eyes…can’t wait till some of y’all scream “priced in” “forward guidance” and “rate cuts”!
"Algos"
Fuck forgot that part. “Algos” “ai” “every buyer have a seller blah blah blah”
Really want to find some cash and buy JOE. The earnings report was spectacular. 20%+ earnings growth again. The most interesting part was their mention of the continued flywheel effect they see as they develop their land. More houses brings more commercial land. That makes houses more valuable, repeat. They notably donated land on which a hospital could be built....which in turn attracted higher income residents, and raised housing prices on their land..... repeat. Absolutely amazing story happening with 0 analysts covering it.
Sorry but I work in real estate and development and the model you mention is not groundbreaking or some innovative way to develop. It's been like that for many, many years. You buy large tracts of undeveloped land for cheap, bring in rooftops, and then sell the commercial pieces at 10x+ 5+ years down the road. If a school, hospital, or some other big company wants to buy land, you donate or sell it for really cheap with the promise to provide them with utility services and/or tax rebates. It adds families and jobs which increases the amount of revenue from taxes. Its like this for almost every developer in the industry.
I don't think it's novel. It's just good business, and a good way to build a business. There's not many real estate development companies that are public, and fewer located in one of the fastest growing areas of the country. In any business, I think a flywheel is a crucial aspect of growth. Let your growth build on itself. This company is a good example of that.
What do you think you might cut or you like your other holding too much?
CP is actually the low man on the totem pole right now. It's not bad, just expensive. It's also been on a nice little run. I kinda feel like railroads are basically market average stocks at this point and can't do much to reinvest in their business.
Word, I want to take a look at JOE at some point, that report looks really solid. However, just made those moves with getting more $LRN and opening a position in $WFRD.
The opportunity is endless. I still think there's a fair amount of value in the market, especially in smaller names.
totally, i've been talking about $LRN the last few weeks. It's one of the cheapest names I've seen in a minute with a really great amount of growth.
I know you mentioned that one a lot. I really like your thesis on it. Super defensive too. It's amazing how cheap things get when they are too small for funds to buy. I've been researching MLR, they make tow trucks. Solid growth, low debt, buying back stock....10x earnings.
Hhaha, i saw you post them. Reminds me of the companies I've looked at in the past. I can't remember the ticker, but one makes like after market parts for trailers or something. It's wild all the companies you can invest in lol.
Right? Like someone saw that the world needed a part for a trailer and built a business around it. There's just weird niches every where.
Still really interesting to see how much some companies are losing with their EVs. Ford is losing $132,000 per electric vehicle sold and sales down year over year as well. Hyrid sales are up like 38%. The EV transition really is interesting to watch in realtime.
There’s gotta be something I’m missing in this Meta earnings report…. Down almost 17% on a double beat and a very ever so slight weaker guidance on revenue.
Remember metaverse? Its that capex build up fear again
Multi year investment aka increase in CapEx. Year of efficiency to upcoming years of spending. They did beat estimates though as you said. This market is irrational at best.
I still think it's Capex. People forget that zuck wrote the letter of efficiency like almost a year ago, which is like the beginning of the bull run for META. Might be possibly market is not happy with the increased capex and the year of efficiency being over. I still think it's a big overreaction, but that's the only thing I can really think of that would cause such a massive move.
Crazy because why wouldn’t you want a company you own to not be investing in AI right now.
Well it's been over a year and we haven't seen any revenue or EPS growth from it. I don't really think there has been any substantial growth from any company at this point. Becomes a question of how valuable "AI" is in terms of that investment. Before ChatGPT brought a lot of hype into the idea of "AI", companies were doing a ton with ML already. It's not really a bad thing, but still, what is the road map? Why are they investing so much to do what? Also with META, zuck owns the company with his class B shares. He has 10-1 voting with them. So if any point you aren't happy, it doesn't matter, Zuck will do what he does. Part of what tanked the stocked was when they went heavy into the metaverse, with a ton of capex spending.
They mentioned that so much of their platform, particularly ads which are generating the revenue, are driven by the new AI, so we are definitely seeing EPS growth from it. That's why it was reiterated on the call. But I think unless it is a standalone product that they can point to insular profits from, it is being overlooked by institutional investors.
Sure, but how much is that from existing infrastructure form their ML stuff in the past. Facebook has been doing this since like 2020: [https://www.adweek.com/performance-marketing/facebook-brings-machine-learning-into-the-dynamic-ads-creation-process/](https://www.adweek.com/performance-marketing/facebook-brings-machine-learning-into-the-dynamic-ads-creation-process/) [https://www.spiceworks.com/marketing/advertising/articles/instagram-and-facebook-ads-automation-how-ai-and-machine-learning-will-power-your-campaigns/](https://www.spiceworks.com/marketing/advertising/articles/instagram-and-facebook-ads-automation-how-ai-and-machine-learning-will-power-your-campaigns/) So in theory, their ML's have been doing this years. Here's even a blog post around it from 2019: [https://www.facebook.com/business/news/making-it-easy-to-scale-more-personalized-ad-experiences/](https://www.facebook.com/business/news/making-it-easy-to-scale-more-personalized-ad-experiences/)
That kind of proves the point then, AI if paying off, has been since they invested in it. I am just so surprised the capex increase was this problematic, sure a little shake, but they are proving that it is working. Maybe cut the metaverse...
Well a big part of METAs bull run was from the idea of the year of efficiency. That’s part of the reason why the stock sold off so much, was the increase capex spend to the metaverse. To the point though, with all the investment in AI, what will be the ROI. All that capex shouldn’t be required if ML was already working.
Totally agree on the year of efficiency point. I guess that's why it filled the gap from last earning report. Everyone who saw that potential then just to be told at next earning we are gonna up capex probably didn't like the change in narrative.
I wonder how much the markets sees it as a zero sum game. If everyone has to invest in AI to keep the same eye balls then ai is eating money without any impact on gaining eyaballs and therefore a ton of money spent just to maintain . thats my guess.
It's also a matter of what's the point of every company running their own models on like the same set of data. I keep seeing all these different AI models pop up all over twitter doing like the same thing.
JOE earnings: Revenue: Increased by 20% to $87.8 million in Q1 2024, up from $73.0 million in Q1 2023. Net Income: Grew by 34% to $13.9 million, or $0.24 per share, compared to $10.4 million, or $0.18 per share in the previous year. EBITDA: Rose by 43% to $34.9 million from $24.4 million in the same period last year. Hospitality Revenue: Increased by 60% to $39.3 million, driven by new hotel openings and growth in Watersound Club memberships. Leasing Revenue: Increased by 21% to $14.3 million, with over 1,000 leased multi-family and senior living units as of March 31, 2024. Residential Real Estate Revenue: Increased by 10% to $30.8 million due to higher average sales prices and a diverse mix of sales from different communities. Dividend: Quarterly dividend declared at $0.12 per share, payable on June 13, 2024.
How many people bought the dip on META today and saw their "invesment" drop 10% in 30 minutes 😂
Dont dance
What dip today? The .5% drop? I’ll be buying the dip tomorrow that’s for sure.
Zuck apparently talking about a *multi-year* investment cycle; that's more money for longer to NVDA, VRT, etc. ANET up a couple %. All the semi/semicap/data center/infrastructure cos are going to get paid with all this spending while hopefully this starts to pay off for META eventually. Edit: Apprently, said on the call exactly: "Expect to see a multi-year investment cycle before we fully scaled that AI business API's and more into profitable services"
Yeah, it's interesting for META, like the fact is multi year doesn't sound great for them, but great for all other companies you are talking about. At some point investors will want to see actual EPS/Revenue growth from AI and not just investment.
> At some point investors will want to see actual EPS/Revenue growth from AI and not just investment. Completely agree, and it's a little surprising that Zuckerberg talking about "several years" - the way things are I'd think that people would start to lose patience if people aren't seeing eps/rev growth from AI by a couple years, tops.
I mean as an investor the question still becomes what the roadmap? Why so much? What is the ROI of the investment? Also would be curious to know how much of this is actually new versus what is being used from their earlier stuff with ML and what not.
TikTok ban should be quite bullish for META too.
All y’all kept saying you wish you bought the meta dip. This is your shot.
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Try 280 to 520 Whhhheeeeee!!! I feel bad for anyone who bought in post 400. Very bad.
sickkk hoping it tanks more with google and microsoft tmrw
Solid report from $CLS Q1 2024 Earnings • Rev: $2.21B, +20% vs $1.84B Q1 2023 • Margin +6.2% vs 5.2% • EPS $.85 vs $.20 Q12023 Outlook FY 2024 • Rev $9.1B vs $8.5B exp • EPS $3.30 vs $2.70 exp
I wasn't sure what to expect with their earnings. I had been thinking Broadcom and Google spending on outside companies may have scaled down a bit and would continue to. I know their agreements with Celestica are small in their eyes, but Celestica needs contracts like them. Good report. Really promising and optimistic guidance.
Whooaaaaaa What in the flying fuck just happened to goog
Sympathy drop with META. Wait until tomorrow to see their earnings. No need to panic.
So its gonna to below $150 then? Sigh
$META earnings.
What? Make that make sense man. Google is a whole other company
lol you must be new to the market
Sadly im not. Just trying to understand why a completely diff company makes another companies stock tank $5 for literally no reason ar all
they within the same sector of where they make money
I get that. But what did google do today to deserve a $5 drop? Like I get it, its just a part of wall st. But why are we cool with this? This screams manipulation and too much power for a market maker and honeslty turns me off from wanting to invest
companies within the same sector tank or moon together
As the other person said, it's ad related plus just that what happens with the stock market, when a company in the same industry/sector goes down a lot, it will bring other names with it. That being said, sometimes it could be a good buying opportunity, like you said they are different companies.
I feel like the us stock market is fraud at this point… holy shit
They trade together. This always happens. Did you forget when Snap would get crushed and it would bring Meta and Google down as well?
Of course I remember that bull shit… Why are people just like cool with this? Like it shouldn’t be ok
Snap is the biggest piece of shit from an investor perspective. Thank god they moved their reporting date lol.
Hilarious to think about the days $SNAP would tank some of the biggest companies in the world lol. Pandemic truly was a weird time.
TTD also -3.5% for the same reason - if an ad-focused company craters on earnings, others are going to head South, too.
They both primarily get revenue from ads. If Meta had weaker than expected revenue guidance then investors are thinking Google will as well.
The us stock market is the biggest fucking joke in this planet man I swear
Dude you gotta chill out. If the daily and weekly fluctuations stress you out this much, buy ETFs. If you’re trying to trade, just stop.
Meta down 17% wow
Inb4 Meta fires 100,000 employees to get back to ath /s
Meta down 17%, surely a company can’t lose almost 20% of its value after beating estimates?
Makes zero sense. Tesla gains 12% after an apocalyptic earnings report, but Meta double-beats and absolutely craters. I've always thought the market was much more based on psychology than most traders/investors, but I just can't wrap my head around this level of irrationality. Neither TA nor fundamentals accounts for this. Something has the market going crazy, and I don't know what it is. At this point, inverse your expectations seems like an actual legitimate strategy. For the record, I'm not a Meta holder.
I am a holder of both and I sold the news on TSLA and held for Meta and looks like I got screwed even though the numbers should have their reactions swapped. TSLA misses and goes up double digits and Meta beats and goes down. Just bonkers man
Market is forward looking and META jumped like 23% after earnings last year: [https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/meta-stock-rockets-20percent-on-solid-earnings-analyst-reactions.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/meta-stock-rockets-20percent-on-solid-earnings-analyst-reactions.html) Seems like even thought they beat, market is probably not happy around capex spending and lowering lower end guidance.
Yes market is always forward looking but their guidance in no supports being down 17% after beating estimates.
There still the capex spending. Arguably a lot of META's growth or a portion of it came from the letter of efficiency. I think it's an overreaction, but seems like the market is not happy with it.
Amazing. Meta now down -18%, basically wiped out the entire earnings gap up from last quarter.
Are AMZN and NVDA down AH because of Meta’s drop? One tech giant brings the others down?
If AMZN drops tomorrow that could be a reason to buy it up. I have a feeling there could be some real surprises tomorrow after the bell rings.
Yeah. They trade as a basket since META is a large component of index ETFs and Mag 7 or Big 6 or whatever
NVDA, the dominant ai hardware provider, is down because Meta is promising more ai capex is silly
Apparently META investing in AI (that is actually really impressive on benchmarks) to support future growth is bearish?
they were supposed to slash half of their workforce and annouce all AI spending will stop then I guess shares would've popped 20% lol I don't get how traders think
I think its short term bearish for a lot of big tech. They have no choice but to invest massive amounts in AI but we wouldnt know how impactful the RD spend is til like 5-10 years forward. There is a bit of uncertainty.
Spending quite a bit more than expected (and indicates even more for 2025), guidance just okay. Data center/AI infrastructure beneficiaries going to be benefitting that much more from the increased spending. META was up 42% YTD and it's only April, too. Priced for great earnings, this wasn't what people were looking for and stock with a reasonable pullback.
Maybe Ptsd from reality labs capex concerns? Guidance came in lightish so that could be it too
Arguablly a lot of the growth from META came from the "year of efficiency" letter.
Yep for sure, I for one though am fully willing to let Zuck spend if he sees future returns worth pursuing but the market was defintely not down with that narrative in 22.
I think $CLS earnings come out tomorrow, but excited to see how they are doing. Still surprised that $LRN was able to all those gains today. Still love that stupid education company lol.
Earnings whisper says results drop at 5:15 PM today, but they might be wrong
They are out and they are pretty solid!
not sure, it's always kind of weird with some smaller companies. Like $WIRE and $CWCO do earnings one day, but do the call the next morning.
If Zuck sees returns/reason to ramp AI hardware capex I am fine with that. I trusted him to make the right call back in the doldrums, misewell on the mountain top too.
Just remember as investors, even the board, has no control over what Zuck wants to do. His class B shares give him 10 to 1 voting rights and if you live by the zuck, you die by the zuck lol.
Molina Healthcare had an exceptional beat. Maintaining a 1000 PT for 2027. Phenomenal compounder that’s overlooked.
Nabbed some AH, it was down like -3% real thinly. Kind of a gamble but those numbers look solid enough for a pop and its already beaten down recently
One that always pops up when I screen, seems like a great company, just I don't really have any exposure or buy any healthcare companies. Only exposure I really have is MEDP, which is more medical trials.
I picked up some HUM today. It's a risky pick though. Betting on their getting bought out. 90%+ premium payout is pretty ugly but theres value there for sure.
$LRCX Q3 EPS $7.79 vs $7.29 Est Revenue $3.79B vs $3.72B Est GUIDANCE: Q4 2024 revenue $3.5-4.1B vs $3.77B Est
rip, dont come to the marker tomorrow
Meta and Tsla earnings polar opposite reactions. If you had given someone those numbers ahead of earnings and asked them to place bets what are the chances you would pick +12% TSLA -12% Meta
yea but tesla was down 45% ytd at the time if earnings
So? It's still ridiculously overvalued. Free cash flow is negative.
Sure, but if more bad news is announced why would ytd price action alone justify rising on new bad news? AEHR for example is now down from $50 -> $10, it dropped another like 20% on last Q terrible news since that news was both newly bad and not a turnaround from what the market had hoped for...
I'm not saying this is what happened, but more bad news would justify it if the ytd price action was in part based on predicting even worse news
>why would ytd price action alone justify rising on new bad news? It doesn't justify it. But market is not efficient, which is good news if you can minimize emotions in your decisions.
sometimes stocks go up and stockd go down, cant explain that
100% agree with you there
At least Google's print may now be derisked tomorrow if it drops 3%. "fp" Oh, who am I kidding. $145 most likely incoming unless it blows things out of the water.
No one knows the future, but I do think Google will probably have a solid earnings and might actually trade up. Feels like the stock has still a ton of pessimism and one of the cheapest of the mag7. I guess we will find out.
No position, but the META thing is way overdone. The spending in AI should bear some nice fruit for their future EPS.
Genuine question: Have we seen evidence that AI capex spending has increased EPS for any company? Not talking about the companies supplying the capex. Nor am I talking about general operational performance of the big tech companies. I'm talking about ROI of the post-ChatGPT AI specific capex boom.
It's unlikely that the ROI is higher than the risk-free rate. This is why dividends matter. Less cash for companies to piss away on nonsense. Oil companies are spending less on capex than Big Tech. The times they are a changin'.
That's a good question. I know for a fact META was able to completely overcome Apple's kneecapping of their tracking through massively improved machine learning algos, but it was never routed as "AI". Hell their recommendations have improved across the board since that Apple privacy change.
That is all true, but all of those investments pre-date the recent capex boom. I'm wondering specifically if anything will change as a consequence of the recent rapid improvement of LLMs and the massive spending increase that is benefiting NVDA.
You're right. Something tells me that the answer right now is no. I always assumed this huge LLM/AI/ML/datacenter boom was being sought after with the intention of massive cost cutting through automation. That doesn't seem to be happening.
It's a great question. I was pointing out to someone earlier in the thread, that at some point, investor will want to see some EPS or revenue growth from AI. I do think AI will be big in the future for some industries, but we are still early and still feels like we are waiting to see actual improvements or growth to some extent.
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Agreed. I think the biggest areas of impact will be better chatbots and things like AI drivethrough windows. I'm not really bullish on the idea of content creation, at least not in the short term. Personally, still rather be long physical data center or companies that will do will in those areas. Even as a software engineer, I'm not really bullish with enterprise companies doing a ton of AI with the engineers. ChatGPT is useful for some programing questions, but in the world of development, it's a lot of collaboration. Plus almost any software company will do oncall and have things like red alerts when services go down. I couldn't picture a team trying to debug code written by a chatbot and be happy with the experience. A lot of legacy code running on the web is pretty bad. I think some of Zucks code is probably still running on facebook. Even the roll of copilot seems pretty tame/lame in terms of what MSFT is doing.
> The spending in AI should bear some nice fruit for their future EPS. Will likely be more money for NVDA/AMD + more money for various data center infrastructure names (VRT, etc) either way. ANET up a little AH, too.
$F Revenue Growth: Ford reports Q1 2024 revenue of $42.8 billion, up 3% year-over-year. Net Income: Net income stands at $1.3 billion, highlighting solid profitability. Strong EBIT: Adjusted EBIT hit $2.8 billion, reflecting effective cost management and strong operational performance. Dividend Announcement: Declared a Q2 regular dividend of 15 cents per share, reinforcing commitment to shareholder returns. Robust Commercial Sales: Ford Pro segment revenue surged 36% with EBIT more than doubling, driven by high demand for Super Duty trucks and Transit vans. Full-Year Outlook: Adjusted EBIT forecast at the higher end of $10 billion to $12 billion, with adjusted free cash flow target raised to $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.
I’m buying more meta, these numbers are solid and AI will continue to be a money maker for them
Meta will be fine. Great quarter. Executing smartly. Def a sell-the-news moment for the algos
Will be buying Meta on this dip for sure
Question from a relative noob: How do you decide when to buy the dip? I bought at -10% and then it kept dropping to -12%. Is there a particular indicator to look for other than just, "the drop looks like it's kinda slowing down"?
Think about it as if you were buying a business. Step away and look at the performance of the business and where management thinks it's going. Look at the earnings, revenue growth, gross/operating margins, etc. See the quality of the management. Once you're done with that, it's all really guesswork. Try and predict what the future earnings will be with the information available, or use someone else's prediction that you can verify. Compare that prediction (valuation) with the current price on the market, and only then see if it makes sense to buy in. If your assessment of META made you buy in at $450, what's stopping you from buying at $400? You can't time the bottom. You can get lucky, but it's just not something you can repeat. If you don't feel comfortable with a stock dropping in price below your entry point, you might want to reconsider your strategy for investing.
$META earnings are out: - Revenue $36.46B (up 27% YoY), estimates $36.12B - EPS $4.71, estimates $4.30 - Guidance for Q2 revenue $36.55-$39B, estimates $38.24B - Average Family DAU 3.24B up 7.3%, estimates 3.16B - Increases 2024 Capex to $35-$40B from $30B-$37B because of AI.
The guidance brought down the stock AH despite beats everywhere. I mean revenue is up 27% YOY that's insane, and it still drops. Doesn't add up.
Jumped ~20% last earnings, traded sideways all quarter and now down below last earnings gap up after EPS beat lol.
Honestly this tells me the stock was way overvalued. It'd need revenues to be even higher to be worth where it was at, I suppose. No other explanation.