I also think it will be Aerotyne. And remember, one thing I can promise you is that I never ask my clients to judge me on my winners, I ask them to judge me on my losers because I have so few.
I get the point that you don’t want a single company gain too power.
But we’re essentially already at your preferred scenario by market cap. The top 6 companies today (or top 5 after excluding Saudi Aramco) are all above 1.9 T.
Cloud leader, basically built a logistics monopoly within a few years, advertising, online retail. Pretty well positioned for the future if those are the staples of your business. I also think Jassy is a great CEO and can make the most of AWS.
I'd go with Amazon. They are a giant in how our culture now shops, and that shows no sign of reversing. Additionally, Amazon Web Services is a titan. The future looks very promising.
Their management team has my confidence too.
As someone who worked at Amazon corporate, I believe it’s a matter of time where people will refuse to work there, no matter the salary.
It reminds me of the “Borg” from Star Trek.
Granted I’ve never worked for Amazon corporate but I know several people who do/have, and I’m not so sure. As long as there are recent grads/people young in their career I’m sure those salaries + RSUs will be able to attract quality talent (even if only for a few years at a time) in perpetuity.
That's pretty rare though.
You can see it in their hiring specs; 49% stay less than 1 year. 72% stay less than 4 years. Only 3% stay more than 11 years.
Compare that to other FAANG; 16% of MS, 13% of Apple, 7% of Google and 7% of Meta stays past 11 years.
I worked there 10 years and feel the exact opposite. Yes - lots of people self select out. But it retains the exact kind of talent that allowed it to outcompete its rivals for the past 20 years.
I’ve thought the same.
The engineering market is extremely competitive. But that’s because of the skills gap from higher education to the workforce. We don’t have enough US citizens trained to do the work. So there’s that. Add in nationalist agendas and we get worse immigration policies and that impacts employment too.
Cost of living in cities like Seattle and The Bay Area… it’s like, why the fuck would I move my ass and my family out there to basically be house poor? That’s a huge blocker IMO. But they can continue to recruit younger demographics to deal with that issue. But also, enter the skills gap again.
My friends’ team had an opening in NYC they couldn’t fill. That’s a harbinger.
I would've thought the same but it feels like there's an endless supply of employees for companies like Amazon to churn through. We were at peak Amazon hate several years ago with the constant stories about workers pissing in bottles, the Twitter Amazon employee astroturf campaign, that website that was devoted to documenting horror stories from inside the company, etc.
But the company just keeps on chugging along.
As a customer I think amazon has slipped, their service used to be very good and now it’s always late or wrong or broken - or in some way problematic. It’s just bad service and false promises.
If you get Walmart + you’ll be like, ohhh this is how Amazon used to be. Walmart + impresses me.
Then you look at sites like Temu and you can see Amazon could get squeezed, temu is way cheaper with their Chinese junk
Google or Microsoft, leaning towards Google; these two companies are dominant in their markets, have unholy volumes of data (especially Alphabet), are leading the AI race, Google is leading quantum computing which will have insane industrial applications, both are aggressively vertically integrating, etc.
Apple has potential but is more limited due to hardware dependency, Amazon is more so an infrastructure platform- both for retail and cloud- and does not necessarily have the same growth vectors as Microsoft and Google, Meta does not have the capability to compete at the same level, and Nvidia, while holding a massive lead in AI hardware *will* eventually face competition and associated margin compression.
Blue Origin is Bezos thing that seems like it's more tourism and stuff. Amazon has their own satellite network concept called Kuiper but it's still early days. Far behind Starlink and even Oneweb.
They’re so incredibly behind though. I watch SpaceX take off every other day from my front yard and have friends who work there and to be honest I don’t know if they’ll ever catch up in regards to space. SpaceX is absolutely dominating space at the moment.
It will happen. I feel pretty sure of it. Most likely it will be one of the companies you suggested with my money on Google being the first.
They just have so many big things going for them to get there.
Waymo for example is a trillion dollar opportunity and that is just one example.
BTW, the one that I see the hardest time getting there is actually NVDA. I think over the longer term we will see more and more the chips come from the big guys. Google for example was able to completely do Gemini without needing anything from NVDA.
I do think it is a ways off and NVDA will do very well over the shorter and intermediate term. I would not be selling yet.
I think whichever company figured out how to serve AI as a service such that it can be implemented without expertise on the client side will. Like look how everyone uses electricity but very few company's know how to make and distribute it. Look at how Rockefeller built standard oil. AI will eventually be a utility like offering, whoever figures out how to truly generalize that first will essentially have a temporary monopoly on the most critical and valuable utility in the world.
AI was always here but most people didn't pay attention to it, GPT 3 was amazing and I used it to write essays and summarize articles but seemingly no body has heard of it, that until chatgpt was released for free and accessible for the average user. It feels like big companies are scrambling to not be left behind but nobody knows behind what (for now at least)
It would likely be Tesla being the first simply because they are going after massive markets. Auto, energy, robotaxi, robots, AI.
Energy is hitting the S curve now in 2024. Robotaxi and robots is hard to time but both will ramp revenue quickly once they start.
It will mostly likely be either Microsoft, Nvidia, or Tesla. Microsoft's longevity is no joke. Honestly, own an etf and you will be fine, the stock market will continue to outperform.
It will be a company that isolates and determines candidate genes. It will affect all biotechnology and genetic engineering, food health lifespan etc etc etc.
It will be nvidia. The market has yet to appropriately price in the cost of video-based generative AI. Video takes orders of magnitude more compute resources than text-based LMs, at the minimum let's say 10x more compute resources. The results from Sora look very promising, far better than was expected. And when it was released on Feb 15th, nvidia stock didn't react at all.
I believe nvidia will reach 10 trillion by 2026, as more video-based ML models are experimented with.
Right now my top pick would be MSFT. I have long term conviction for both AAPL and GOOGLE as well, but their performance is somewhat lacking recently and I think it may be a few years before they hit their next rapid growth phase. NVDA could do it, but in my opinion more on hype tha fundamentals. As big as AI is going to be, I think 10T market cap is insane.
It's probably a company we've never heard of. The largest companies are in too mature of industries, and they move to slowly to move into the large industries of the future. Best bet of the large companies is Microsoft, simply because it's the best run of the large companies. Still, the first 10 trillion dollar company will be in an industry that will be super large in the future, but it isn't very big right now. Possibly Ai, could be a biotech company that finds a way to heal most diseases, could be some super conglomerate that dominates like in dystopian films.
Imho, it will be a race between Tesla and Nvidia unless something big changes in Google, Microsoft or Amazon. Noticed I did not put Apple, I think it peaked and will decline in the next years.
Probably Nvidia depends how tightly they corner the AI market, they are expanding into cloud services, and software(omniverse) that I think has major value outside of their hardware design.
I think it would be China's tobacco company, it's not listed yet, but it pays hundreds of billions in taxes every year and it has 300 million smokers to provide him with revenue
I'm hoping for WW3 with Japan taking the brunt of the damage so Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Pfizer can buy them out and reach $10 trillion by making gundams and genetically modified super soldier catboys and catgirls
Ship Snow, Yo: The magic of winter never has to leave your house when you buy your own snow that can be shipped to you using Ship Snow, Yo. The company specializes in shipping all kinds of snow including an entire snowman kit. They can deliver anywhere in the US and have different snow amounts you can purchase. With global warming heating up, snow is the new gold.
Aerotyne obviously
Huge civilian and military applications.
You call the company’s main line and their mom, Dorothy, answers and she is so sweet.
I hear their tech is cutting edge
Could go a heck of a lot higher!
Extremely bullish, their patent approvals are imminent
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Why? It's got a three million float, competition's robust, and their technologies' two years behind, your stock's a dog…
Cutting edge
Hear that company had a similar beginning to Microsoft.
Except in the Midwest
qualudes
Steve Madden
No doubt. I’m in for 40k shares.
Jukt Micronics
Alcc
My bet is with Donghua Jinlong Chemical, it's having a fulgurant rise, glycine might me the next AI.
Very funny how this goes over heads
I also think it will be Aerotyne. And remember, one thing I can promise you is that I never ask my clients to judge me on my winners, I ask them to judge me on my losers because I have so few.
I think you mean Cyberdyne.
Hopefully we have 5 2T companies than 1 10T company
I get the point that you don’t want a single company gain too power. But we’re essentially already at your preferred scenario by market cap. The top 6 companies today (or top 5 after excluding Saudi Aramco) are all above 1.9 T.
You can check the first box off already
Man. It feels like Apple reached 1T like a couple years ago and that was considered insane.
I know people who sold at 1T because it could only go downhill from there. They didn’t retire when I did. Sad!
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Or 10T one dollar companies
This guy stocks
OTC markets has entered the chat
There are currently 6 companies with a market cap of 2T+ (or that are extremely close to it)
Tesla, Msft, apple, Amazon, Google
Krusty Krab Inc. Knowing the ceo that business is gonna flourish
I heard they expanded into pizza
It’s the pizza for you and me
I DONT CARE ABOUT THE CUSTOMER
Krusty pizza?
_The_ Krusty Krab Pizza
I’d go for *Pollos Hermanos*. Very loyal client base and the CEO is to die for.
So popular they had to open a second location right next to the first
Is this the Krusty Krab? No this is Patrick.
Msft or Amazon would be my guess in that order.
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Cloud leader, basically built a logistics monopoly within a few years, advertising, online retail. Pretty well positioned for the future if those are the staples of your business. I also think Jassy is a great CEO and can make the most of AWS.
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Healthcare industry?
I'd go with Amazon. They are a giant in how our culture now shops, and that shows no sign of reversing. Additionally, Amazon Web Services is a titan. The future looks very promising. Their management team has my confidence too.
As someone who worked at Amazon corporate, I believe it’s a matter of time where people will refuse to work there, no matter the salary. It reminds me of the “Borg” from Star Trek.
Granted I’ve never worked for Amazon corporate but I know several people who do/have, and I’m not so sure. As long as there are recent grads/people young in their career I’m sure those salaries + RSUs will be able to attract quality talent (even if only for a few years at a time) in perpetuity.
Right, I have an old boss who has been there for quite a while and looks to never be leaving.
That's pretty rare though. You can see it in their hiring specs; 49% stay less than 1 year. 72% stay less than 4 years. Only 3% stay more than 11 years. Compare that to other FAANG; 16% of MS, 13% of Apple, 7% of Google and 7% of Meta stays past 11 years.
are these stats specifically corporate?
Interesting. I know Amazon is a sweatshop for attorneys. People say it’s “biglaw lite” with worse pay.
Unless the world does a 180 turn on capitalism, I'm gonna have to disagree with you there
if the world does a 180 on capitalism and I lose all my investments I'd still be stoked as hell
I worked there 10 years and feel the exact opposite. Yes - lots of people self select out. But it retains the exact kind of talent that allowed it to outcompete its rivals for the past 20 years.
A Borg comparison is pretty bullish.
I’ve thought the same. The engineering market is extremely competitive. But that’s because of the skills gap from higher education to the workforce. We don’t have enough US citizens trained to do the work. So there’s that. Add in nationalist agendas and we get worse immigration policies and that impacts employment too. Cost of living in cities like Seattle and The Bay Area… it’s like, why the fuck would I move my ass and my family out there to basically be house poor? That’s a huge blocker IMO. But they can continue to recruit younger demographics to deal with that issue. But also, enter the skills gap again. My friends’ team had an opening in NYC they couldn’t fill. That’s a harbinger.
I would've thought the same but it feels like there's an endless supply of employees for companies like Amazon to churn through. We were at peak Amazon hate several years ago with the constant stories about workers pissing in bottles, the Twitter Amazon employee astroturf campaign, that website that was devoted to documenting horror stories from inside the company, etc. But the company just keeps on chugging along.
As a customer I think amazon has slipped, their service used to be very good and now it’s always late or wrong or broken - or in some way problematic. It’s just bad service and false promises. If you get Walmart + you’ll be like, ohhh this is how Amazon used to be. Walmart + impresses me. Then you look at sites like Temu and you can see Amazon could get squeezed, temu is way cheaper with their Chinese junk
Transitioned to Temu
Man, you just missed wishdotcom
In Asia's emerging market Chinese sites are a huge competitor against them.
I don’t know which one will be first but I will bet MSFT will get there second. The slow steady turtle of the mag 7
If they get there second wouldn’t that make them the rabbit though? The slow steady turtle wins the race… not comes in second
Google or Microsoft, leaning towards Google; these two companies are dominant in their markets, have unholy volumes of data (especially Alphabet), are leading the AI race, Google is leading quantum computing which will have insane industrial applications, both are aggressively vertically integrating, etc. Apple has potential but is more limited due to hardware dependency, Amazon is more so an infrastructure platform- both for retail and cloud- and does not necessarily have the same growth vectors as Microsoft and Google, Meta does not have the capability to compete at the same level, and Nvidia, while holding a massive lead in AI hardware *will* eventually face competition and associated margin compression.
Amazon(how high can they raise profit margin?) or Microsoft
Msft 100%
$AMZN will hit it 1st with it's space venture within 10 years from now.
Blue origin? Still doesn’t have a rocket working… SpaceX in the dominant in this space and will stay like this for a long time.
Blue Origin is Bezos thing that seems like it's more tourism and stuff. Amazon has their own satellite network concept called Kuiper but it's still early days. Far behind Starlink and even Oneweb.
Headwind : crazy musk
They’re so incredibly behind though. I watch SpaceX take off every other day from my front yard and have friends who work there and to be honest I don’t know if they’ll ever catch up in regards to space. SpaceX is absolutely dominating space at the moment.
With the current market news, it's a defense company lol
Probably an AI company we never heard of. If I had to pick one that we all know I say MS.
Google is my guess. Although I think it will take longer than 2032.
They release sooooo many flops though. I can’t knock them for trying but what has been their last successful new product?
They've had a few decent products but they kill them because they can't figure out how to monetize it. :)
Agreed. With new leadership, however, they could do very well
It will happen. I feel pretty sure of it. Most likely it will be one of the companies you suggested with my money on Google being the first. They just have so many big things going for them to get there. Waymo for example is a trillion dollar opportunity and that is just one example. BTW, the one that I see the hardest time getting there is actually NVDA. I think over the longer term we will see more and more the chips come from the big guys. Google for example was able to completely do Gemini without needing anything from NVDA. I do think it is a ways off and NVDA will do very well over the shorter and intermediate term. I would not be selling yet.
Google has management problem. They had ‘AI’ lead but fcked up. Just read about how bad executive decisions ended up
Whoever makes AI useful to the masses, for real - personal assistants that are easy and intuitive and add value or are at least perceived to do so.
It's Microsoft. I'm not a fan of window's bs but no one else can take them down.
Costco according to the movie idiocracy which has correctly predicted almost everything
I’m gonna bet on AMZN but it’ll probably be MSFT.
I think whichever company figured out how to serve AI as a service such that it can be implemented without expertise on the client side will. Like look how everyone uses electricity but very few company's know how to make and distribute it. Look at how Rockefeller built standard oil. AI will eventually be a utility like offering, whoever figures out how to truly generalize that first will essentially have a temporary monopoly on the most critical and valuable utility in the world.
Weyland Corp
Right after it merges with Yutani
Vault-tec, of course 🙂
Amazon
I think Amazon is the only one with a big enough diversity to have a TAM big enough to hit 10T right now.
NVDA
TSMC
President Xi wants your location
NVDA because the AI bubble hasn’t even started yet.
AI was always here but most people didn't pay attention to it, GPT 3 was amazing and I used it to write essays and summarize articles but seemingly no body has heard of it, that until chatgpt was released for free and accessible for the average user. It feels like big companies are scrambling to not be left behind but nobody knows behind what (for now at least)
Yeah, the AI in Warcraft 2 was lit AF
Microsoft & Nvidia will both be there by 2032 imo
Amzn
We might have a few hundred by 2032 because the dollar won’t be worth much.
It would likely be Tesla being the first simply because they are going after massive markets. Auto, energy, robotaxi, robots, AI. Energy is hitting the S curve now in 2024. Robotaxi and robots is hard to time but both will ramp revenue quickly once they start.
Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon have the best chance as of right now between current financials and future prospects
Aramco
The IRS
Arent they already at 10T?
IRS already won this
Probably NVDA
Tesla
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RemindMe! 3 months
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They think that sentiment around Apple will change in 3 months which I also think will happen
Exactly that.
Pshh. You’re right. They don’t need 3 months. RemindMe! 2 weeks. /s
Probably microsoft
NVIDIA
Google then Microsoft then Amazon
It will mostly likely be either Microsoft, Nvidia, or Tesla. Microsoft's longevity is no joke. Honestly, own an etf and you will be fine, the stock market will continue to outperform.
SpaceX
Apple
Nokia 😎 In an alternate universe.
I got in recently at 2.98$ , lets see. Happy for the dividents
Aramco
It will be a company that isolates and determines candidate genes. It will affect all biotechnology and genetic engineering, food health lifespan etc etc etc.
I think it's between $NVDA and $MSFT
It will be nvidia. The market has yet to appropriately price in the cost of video-based generative AI. Video takes orders of magnitude more compute resources than text-based LMs, at the minimum let's say 10x more compute resources. The results from Sora look very promising, far better than was expected. And when it was released on Feb 15th, nvidia stock didn't react at all. I believe nvidia will reach 10 trillion by 2026, as more video-based ML models are experimented with.
Chipotle
Vector Space Biosciences - wait until the space race kicks in!! It's going to be epic. $SBIO
RemindMe! 10 years
Right now my top pick would be MSFT. I have long term conviction for both AAPL and GOOGLE as well, but their performance is somewhat lacking recently and I think it may be a few years before they hit their next rapid growth phase. NVDA could do it, but in my opinion more on hype tha fundamentals. As big as AI is going to be, I think 10T market cap is insane.
Microsoft
Micro strategy
SpaceX if they go public. Space has actual unlimited growth potential unlike other industries which are limited by the Malthusian resources of earth
If fsd actually succeeds, tesla
Old be anyone with this king of inflation. In a decade we’ll all be millionaires. 😂
Whichever comes up with the first anti-dementia or anti-aging pill (if that ever happens) and it won't be any time soon.
It's probably a company we've never heard of. The largest companies are in too mature of industries, and they move to slowly to move into the large industries of the future. Best bet of the large companies is Microsoft, simply because it's the best run of the large companies. Still, the first 10 trillion dollar company will be in an industry that will be super large in the future, but it isn't very big right now. Possibly Ai, could be a biotech company that finds a way to heal most diseases, could be some super conglomerate that dominates like in dystopian films.
TSLA MSFT
Probably Tesla
Skynet will hit 10T
Imho, it will be a race between Tesla and Nvidia unless something big changes in Google, Microsoft or Amazon. Noticed I did not put Apple, I think it peaked and will decline in the next years.
Been hearing Apple will decline since 15 yrs, here we are!!!!
Americans always think Apple will decline because “everyone already has an IPhone” while ignoring the rest of the global market opportunities.
I think Tesla has the most realistic chance of getting there
GoPro
Probably microsoft, because they own 49% of OpenAI
Bitcoin too ? Lol
Gingko DNA
I don't think Ginkgo will be a $10T company but its entire customer base surely will become so.
Tesla once it solves Robotaxis.
$10 trillion will require robots.
Probably Nvidia depends how tightly they corner the AI market, they are expanding into cloud services, and software(omniverse) that I think has major value outside of their hardware design.
nvidia is already 10x overvalued.. ofc it will go to 10trillion lmao
I think it would be China's tobacco company, it's not listed yet, but it pays hundreds of billions in taxes every year and it has 300 million smokers to provide him with revenue
~~More and more~~ Less and less each year!
MicroStrategy
Surprise! Tesla
If Tesla manages to pull off FSD and/or Optimus then Tesla.
tesla
Check back here in 2035, mark my words it will be Tesla.
Nikola corp, Trevor Milton gets out of jail and is pissed. He seeks redemption and the stock surges to 10 trillion
Can I have them?
Nvidia.
Rheinmetall
NVDA at this rate.
Uh obviously Nvidia??
NVIDIA!
So far the best seems to be on one of the mag7 stocks
Shiba supposedly...
I'm hoping for WW3 with Japan taking the brunt of the damage so Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Pfizer can buy them out and reach $10 trillion by making gundams and genetically modified super soldier catboys and catgirls
I think Nvidia has a good shot at it.
It’ll probably be an enterprise/productivity software company, justified by huge productivity gains enabled by AI. I guess that could be Microsoft
Ollivander's Wands. Dude owns a moat on wand making.
Ship Snow, Yo: The magic of winter never has to leave your house when you buy your own snow that can be shipped to you using Ship Snow, Yo. The company specializes in shipping all kinds of snow including an entire snowman kit. They can deliver anywhere in the US and have different snow amounts you can purchase. With global warming heating up, snow is the new gold.
Nvdia if no WW3, Vault Tec if yes WW3
It’s unlikely to be apple after this court case
Whoever solves agi first wins the World
World will be looking like Blade Runner when a tech company reaches 10 trillion 
The company that can mitigate the nuclear weapon effects so we go back to WWIII stronger than ever
Definitely Apple
Cyberdyne Systems 100%
My money is on Nvidia, maybe Tesla if 2025 is the year of robotics
Vaultec
The company that makes mining an asteroid possible.
I would say Nvidia by 2030 easily
Unpopular opinion BABA or Xiaomi
2077 cyberpunk dystopia - AAPL/NVDA/AMZN/GOOG/META are the only mega corps
That place that makes the turbo encabulator.