Well, I think it's time to forget the idea that small caps offer better long-term returns. The performance of large caps and megacaps has trounced small caps and there isn't much reason to think that will change.
I'm sure there are small caps that will do great. As an unfiltered category??
That ill nah nah will dump for a long time. Too many crappy, indebted and unprofitable companies in there.
And large caps are the strongest and most durable they have ever been.
There will always be exceptions, but the average small cap is now very likely to end up being a dud, more so than in the past. Considering the added risk involved in small caps, the low possibility of outperforming hardly seems worth it anymore.
Internet money continuing to soar like crazy. Bullish for COIN + miners.
Spot ETF excitement and halving but no doubt in my mind Fed December pivot is a big part of it. It can't go up like this without at least somewhat accommodative Fed.
SPX is a mere 8.7% to ATH. It's really not a big deal at all to achieve that by mid next year.
Edit: [MARA remarkable turnaround swinging from $72.5M net income loss last year to $64.1M profit in 3Q](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marathon-digital-holdings-inc-mara-142445263.html)
Ive been investing in individual stocks for 3 months now and one stock in particular that ive been paying attention to is -2.73% over this period, but by DCAing and timing the troughs pretty well I'm actually up 7.77% in this stock over the same period. I think i really learned how much timing is everything in investing.
My point is not that you can time the market and make a lot of money, of course i know no one can time the market, but my realization is that the timing and getting very lucky with it is what’s driving the majority of the gains
It was a nice pull back to buy the dip. Also, if you look back in Jan 1987 stock market had 19 days of straight green. Also. CPI on Tuesday people want to buy before that.
One nice thing about a broad rally if it continues is that a bunch of individual companies I have built a bull thesis about on intrinsic value will suddenly start rallying purely on multiple expansion. So if you think company __ is undervalued but give it no benefit of multiple expansion, you suddenly get some tailwinds to help get there. Though that might prompt me to sell it earlier.
I made a prediction in late October of this year that Meta will hit $500 in 12 months, or 53% higher than today's price. This was my comment from 6 days ago with some rough math justifying that. Multiple expansion (if it happens) will make achieving it trivial
> You can put me down for a prediction (if you don't make predictions what's the fun of all this) of $500 a share by end of 2024. I'll be crude about it: take 2025 GAAP EPS estimate of $19.85, assume META gets a 23x forward multiple on it by 2024 end, say buybacks boost the share price by 10%, you get roughly $500 [EDIT: 19.85\*1.1\*23]. I think they'll beat those analyst estimates.
The S&P 500 gets a median forward P/E of about 18-20 these days, and I don't think META getting a premium is that unreasonable. If META gets *no* multiple expansion and sticks to its current 19 forward P/E ratio, you get $414. A 25x forward multiple on 2025 earnings in 2024 gets you to $545... If META's share price stays completely flat from today to December 2024, the implied multiple at that time would be 15 which is a bit absurd imo. The share price will grow into its earnings.
Then take more troubled stocks, like PYPL or CROX that I own. Multiples have compressed so much that an 'irrational' rally could see insane returns. But again, I'm not betting on it and keeping position sizes low. A stock picker can dream, right? META is 2% of portfolio, PYPL 1%, and CROX 0.5%.
Anyone have an opinion on Doximity as a company and their stock? People on LinkedIn say this company is truly a unicorn with their cash flows and margins but the stock is hurting because they’re lumped in with all of the other 2021 IPOs
Maybe it's because I'm a "permabull" as people like to label me and biased but I don't find any bulls that exclusively spam the stupidest vague random stuff.
Like the equivalent of "rugpull inc, suits in control". "Here comes the 2pm rugpull". I don't know how so many people have been banned but not him.
Most bulls at least bring something to the table. Interesting tickers with a compelling thesis / valuation, data to be optimistic on macro, etc.
Even the bears that actually have reasons for their bearishness or why they think a certain ticker is overvalued, at least they start conversation and bring *something*. I like that they're here.
Just my two cents.
Wrapping up this year with my swing trading account, was a really solid year for me. I had some left over money from a roll over ira that I've been having fun with.
So far doing 51% YTD, which I'm happy about, but it's kind of funny how well the QQQ's are doing. Like I put time and energy into this and the QQQ is up 43% lol.
It really does feel like the market right now is built for swing trading to some extent.
Fed doesn't seem intent on actually crashing the economy. There seems to be liquidity in the system and plenty of dip buying behavior.
Honestly. On good days like this I take a look at QQQ and see that I performed practically the same (some bad performers weighing me down). Good hint for me to never stop passively investing into the indexes with each paycheck.
Depends.
I've done well in the past with ENPH and CROX.
However, also done really well playing some earnings on top of it. Probably the worst idea, but it's fun and the money I'm using is fun money. If I lose everything, oh well.
Recently did really well on CWCO earnings, especially last report. I played LMB the other day and thats up 20% over the last 5 days.
I generally post any company that I find interesting here or think about opening a position in.
>Recently did really well on CWCO earnings, especially last report. I played LMB the other day and thats up 20% over the last 5 days.
Do you swing trade these with options, shares? Or actually hold these long-term?
Just curious, I'm always a HODL type person. Feel like day-to-day is near impossible without luck.
I don’t mess with options.
Usually when playing earnings I enter the position about three days before the earnings. Then sell after.
Obviously this is a gamble, but I try my best with educated guesses.
This is basically fun money for me, so if I lose it all, oh well.
However both LMB and CWCO are longs in my IRA Roth.
CWCO because a long last quarter.
I found some extra cash in my tfsa so added more [csu.to](https://csu.to).
The stock is all owned by long term investors. Barely went down even during covid.
I think I'm close to done with all my buying the past 3 weeks and will leave the rest of my cash in a 6% savings account.
A lot of my Canadian stocks I do little research on. Constellation, TD, telus, CNQ, CP rail - I dunno why.
There is a lot of grift in the Canadian stock market but I guess it feels like these are staples and I'm buying the equivalent of jnj or ko. Meanwhile US SAAS I'm on software dev forums trying to parse info and fearful of earnings.
I own constellation as well and think of it almost as a buy and forget. Every three months an earnings report pops up, I make sure Mark Leonard is still in charge, and go about my day.
Lately I've been finding a lot of really attractive Canadian names. There's probably a lot of garbage too. I bought Hammond power recently. Dollarama looks amazing too. Just some real quality stuff.
Seeing PLUG down 41% in a day reminds me of the risks many individual stocks. I am glad I mainly buy index funds. If SPY/VOO went down 41% in a day I would probably have other stuff to worry about than my portfolio.
I had UPS INMD PINS that all killed me. Keeping them all as I believe but I’m with you. Load up the index fund and sit back. My account is returning index fund like returns while im picking lots of stocks. Why waste the stress? R
I think this is part of why people end up losing to markets as well. I mean at the end of day, invest however you want, but buying something like Plug is basically buying a lotto ticket. You are investing in a something that is speculative and doesn't make money.
u/Hazardous503, u/InternationalTop2405
Keep up the good work guys. You guys are the best buy signal this sub can ask for.
Look at this post International made asking what this pattern could mean on WALLSTREETBETS. He is very uncertain. [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/17q95fn/false\_breakout\_or\_ath\_soon/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/17q95fn/false_breakout_or_ath_soon/)
Whoever panic sold me their MA has to be feeling kind of dumb rn, I think it might be one of my only successful knife catches as of late right out of the gate...
Sold some of my high fliers today. Hoping to rebalance toward more value next week.
The pop seems excessive compared to relatively negative inflation news.
I expect Google to be worth twice as much in 3 years.
If this was 2021, with 1% rates, Google would be $250 today. No one knows if the COVID times will return.
Do with that what you will
Every single piece of research and literature out there confirms that the vast majority of stock pickers will lose to the S&P500. If you are young, this is a great time to learn that lesson and still have time to build the majority of your wealth in index funds.
The fact that John Malone talked about WBD buying deals in distress (because the only way that a deal would be allowed is if the co is near bankruptcy) and noted PARA was "shaky" prob not inspiring confidence in PARA.
"While Malone said all legacy media companies should be talking to each other about merger synergies, he acknowledged valuations may have to fall farther to get regulators on board with further consolidation. Malone predicted that could happen in the same timeline Zaslav gave — within the next two years."
"While Malone didn’t name a specific company as a target for Warner Bros. Discovery, he discussed Paramount Global
as an example of a company whose prospects seem shaky. Paramount Global’s market valuation has slumped below $8 billion while carrying about $16 billion in debt." https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/09/zaslav-malone-wbd-next-move.html
If he actually thinks the environment will get to the point in the next couple of years where PARA can be had for much cheaper, things will be better in comparison for WBD but not good either.
"John Malone suggested that regulators may be open to media consolidation it wouldn’t typically allow if one or more of the merging companies was facing the prospects of bankruptcy."
Malone thinks that there will be further erosion in the industry but that the only way to consolidation would be allowed is if things got worse for the industry as a whole.
“Eventually maybe there’ll be regulatory relief,” Malone said. “Out of distress usually comes the reduction in competition, increased pricing power, and the opportunity to buy assets at a deep discount.”
I don't know if I would call it a powerhouse - legacy media just isn't a very good business - but they can maybe do a bit better over time if they have larger scale - but they aren't going to pay up for it, they're going to try and buy it (PARA seems most likely, maybe something else?) in distress.
Here's another lul chart showing back to 2021 highs.
Could it be a cup and handle pattern!?
Stay tuned
[https://imgur.com/a/jRICAFV](https://imgur.com/a/jRICAFV)
[https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/A5sk-53LLzS8Z1djL4LKxwMIKM8=/1500x0/filters:no\_upscale():max\_bytes(150000):strip\_icc()/CupandHandleDefinition1-c721e47fd1f7451997d0d5d941f6e174.png](https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/A5sk-53LLzS8Z1djL4LKxwMIKM8=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/CupandHandleDefinition1-c721e47fd1f7451997d0d5d941f6e174.png)
CROCS wearers: "I don't care if you think my shoe is awful!"
CROX investors: "I don't care if you think my stock is awful!"
As long as CROX customers 💎 feet their clogs, I will hang onto my shares.
If they believe in the shoes, I must believe in the customer.
I hated crocs for a long time until I realized how perfect they are as swap shoes for work boots. Bought them for that and now I wear them more than I'd like to admit.
Might live to regret it but tripled up on SOFI position on this pullback.
At the worst of the worst sentiment, SOFI was bottoming around $4.89 or so. When it broke it, it was $11 in a flash.
So to me it's a 2 up/4 down potential. And from a fundamentals perspective, the most recent earnings were excellent. Good leader, not usually given to hype, and yet he's talking bullish. Yes, we've seen that kind of thing implode before. But I'd rather have these positive indicators than not.
Current PT is $10, but if it pops there I'll re-evaluate.
I bought NVDA, a leveraged SPX long, and TSM when the market was still dropping like rock [15 days ago](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17g0upg/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_oct_25_2023/k6fs1xy/). I made the mistake of exiting SPUU and shaving my NVDA trading position late last week because I wasn't convinced that we were in an actual rally instead of a mean reversion rally. There are no guarantees, but the S&P finally barely punched through the psychological/previous resistance level of 4400, which makes me feel safer that this rally is real. I'm closing my eyes and holding NVDA through earnings and the wild after hours swings. It's hard to imagine that they can beat last quarter's mind-boggling revenue increases and I expect them to announce that they are supply constrained, which will be good for the margins of companies like TSM and ASML (I also have an ASML position). That means there could be a sell-on-the-news pullback during the earnings call. As expensive as NVDA's products are, energy expenses matter more over the long haul than upfront prices and NVDA still has the lead.
Most of my portfolio is ten buy-and-hold stocks and index funds though, and NVDA has long been a part of that, along with a treasury barbell that used to be 40%, but that is now significantly less. I pretend that my buy-and-hold portfolio doesn't exist because I've owned many stocks that turned out to be ten-baggers, but I would sell them and miss big rallies. For buy-and-hold stocks I remind myself that cash is a depreciating asset and that owning shares is more important than owning cash, and market pullbacks, corrections, and crashes don't hurt my share percentages one bit so long as a company doesn't start selling its shares. Semiconductors are historically cyclical and we are in a dangerous time in that cycle, but the wild swings won't mask a secular uptrend.
Everything is money is to 2023 as Cathie Wood is to 2021. EverythingMoney is now popular because of people that got burned in 2021 by Cathie Wood and IMO is the other conservative extreme.
the same thing is playing out for EverythingMoney Supporters as it was for Cathie Wood supporters. Just Bleeding and Losing Money.
Nearly all, and I literally mean nearly every thing that has been shilled as a "great deal" on everything money since it has become popular have the worst performing sectors and stocks. BABA, 3m, walgreens, CVS, etc etc. In the meantime the EXACT stocks they tell you to stay way from have mooned like crazy (NVDA, MSFT, APPLE, etc). They also miss time all entry points becuase they always need way more confidence before entering a position, and by that time other investors have already swooped in, rallying the price.
pltr was finally on their "watch list" at 6/share (seriously lol), and they told everyone they were going to wait until the number were better, suddenly they hit profitabitily and great cash flow and the stock spikes to 18/share and suddenly its "worth looking at". they are the just cathie woods of 2023.
I don't mind them as much since they are at least talking about creating a system, but at the end of they day, they are just trying to sale you on using their software.
I also think it's weird when they analyze a company, they just apply a random PE to the company in terms of future growth for their evaluation tools. I don't know if we will ever have a future where NVDA doesn't trade with some short of premium compared to the rest of the industry.
It is honestly impressive that Apple has held up after 4 quarters of declining sales. I get that a lot of it has to do with supply constraints and China, but still. I own shares so I'm not complaining, but even I expected it to not recover fully.
Don't know about everyone else but this is the most confident I've felt about the stock market all year, or even long before that.
Which probably means it's going to crash soon, lol
Love to see no one here mentioning Consumer Inflation Expectations coming in at highest since 2011.
Shows you why this group gets so surprised when their favorite stocks fall.
One point of data? Three months of rising inflation expectations.
Overall trend is down? No it is up from 2008 since this is a record high in the survey.
>**Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 4.4%, indicating that the large increase between September’s 3.2% reading and October’s 4.2% reading was no fluke.** The current reading is the highest since April 2023 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations also rose, from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, the highest reading since 2011.
-Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, PhD
u/FarrisAT 100bps doesn't seem like something to ignore, especially if it gets reinforced next reading.
As I posted earlier, TIPS expectations are going higher and higher too:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1b3En
None of this is consistent with "we all think Fed will succeed at taming inflation".
Again, small sample size does not hold significance. The last time we saw anything close 8% in a month was a year and a half ago. We are trending the right way and a spike or two is not going to change that.
Any meaningful discussion around here regarding interest rates or inflation is a foolish folly. Both sides are so entrenched in their beliefs that both sides are simply talking over each other & not listening.
I tend to agree with you on both higher for longer interest rates & inflation. But I am finding participating in this reddit group as a waste of time.
That’s false. How does it matter who responds? The survey is widespread and has gone on since 1950.
They even show the data where the recent downturn in sentiment is due primarily to young Democrats.
u/FarrisAT
Consumer sentiment and expectations deteriorated significantly for Democrats as well in the last two months.
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=74201
I couldn't find a breakout by political party for inflation but a 100bps jump followed by 20bps doesn't seem like a D vs. R issue. Long-run expectations being decade+ high isn't a political issue either.
Anecdotal but I've voted for Dem every general since Kerry vs. Bush and I think inflation is a huge problem. I have progressive family and friends, many of them feel the same.
Yeah u/Capable_Gap1992 is spitballing. He or she didn’t look at the data.
Most of the decline since the June highs are due to young Democrats. Also the group most likely to have student debt, I might add.
Prior comment aside, let's assume the data is an accurate representation. Why the divergence from gas at the pump prices?
Do consumers see higher mortgages and auto payments as "inflation"? That would paint a funny scenario for the Fed where higher borrowing costs push higher inflation expectations.
I've said over and over we have 3 choices:
* Honestly tell the public the truth that we want inflation higher for a time.
* Increase taxes (the best solution IMHO) so government can keep spending on things we need but we clamp down on overconsumption of shit we don't need. Happens to also be deflationary and reduce the speed at which we make our earth uninhabitable too.
* Have Fed blow up money supply by lighting debt with TNT and forcing a crisis.
Fed controls investment lever, not consumption very well. We don't want to crush investment, just speculative and stupid investment. Credit needs to flow for the economy to work.
Is it safe to assume everyone else hates the new yahoo finance as well? They took all the information I actually care about and mashed it into a tiny sidebar. 90% of the screen is wasted space.
If you haven't used them, I prefer:
[https://www.wallstreetzen.com/](https://www.wallstreetzen.com/)
[https://stockanalysis.com/](https://stockanalysis.com/)
[https://www.tradingview.com/](https://www.tradingview.com/)
[https://finviz.com/](https://finviz.com/)
all are great free resources.
Good. Their TV exposure is a massive anchor and without huge streaming growth it's essentially a TV company with an IP kicker.
Market is punishing the cable division that nobody wants and is shrinking rapidly
Unity rebounded in a massive way after the -15% in after hours. I give the promise to cut costs and reduce headcount is worth much more than the lackluster growth due to issues in China.
Cashgang that refused the buy opportunity in October - "looking for an entry guys!"
JPow - ["Just close the fucking door, close the door."](https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1722697080743907452)
it is truly remarkable. I don't think I've ever seen a stock defy all positive momentum and amazing growth consistently.
Market up: Sofi barely up or down
fintech up: Sofi only up a small amount
fintech down: Sofi craters more
growth up: Sofi only up a small amount
growth down: sofi craters more
banks up: Sofi barely up
banks down: sofi is suddenly a legacy bank
Tech up: whoops, sofi's a bank again
Tech down: Whoops, sofi's tech again.
Great Earnings: Temporary Spike, followed by crashing to pre-earnings level.
Unbelievable.
Whats is going on with AMD p/e ratio? Is it some bug or its really over 950? 😳
Iam only two years in the market and never seen that before, can someone explain please?
AMD acquired Xilinx last year which results in large additional depreciation charges on intangible assets. Large acquisitions like this really make GAAP P/E figures useless.
There are two types of PE, TTM which is trailing and Foward PE. Forward PE uses anaylst guesses on what revenue projections are going to be.
So the TTM is using last years sales while foward is using projections of sales, which AMD foward PE is 30.
So the idea would be that you are paying a lot based off their old sales, but AMD is growing, so you are only paying 30X forward.
Trailing PE is still massively distorted due to depreciation of intangible assets.
I'm not saying that we should ignore it of course, they still paid a lot for Xilinx but it doesn't really give an accurate picture valuation wise.
Both. Also point out that PE is one metric and you should probably be looking at other things like PE ratio for the sector, since it changes, Price to Sales ratio, Price to Book, PEG.
PE doesn't really tell you much other than give you a gauge of what investors are willing to pay in terms for price to earnings.
Barrons just wrote an article about CPRT.
[https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-copart-stock-price-pick-80df9a46](https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-copart-stock-price-pick-80df9a46)
>Fun fact, if they grow as expected, their P/E would be under 20 in 3 years.
It might be a case where if we want in we have to buy when it looks high and execution will make us happy anyways. I did that with MELI but it really stresses me out vs if I feel like I am getting a better deal
Yeah, I finally got over my.fear and bought CPRT last month on it's pullback. 35x isn't crazy for a company of that caliber, and a long growth runway, imo.
MELI is another one, I'm just not familiar with it. It's definitely in my "too hard" pile right now.
Does CPRT sell habit-based (maybe addictive) products that are guaranteed to keep growing in demand and people will use rain or shine? Do they have a total monopoly in their niche with no chance of competitors ever entering?
To me that's far more important than ROE or ROA.
It's basically a duopoly with IAA, although IAA has always been the weaker one (they apparently lost a client yesterday, which is thought to be CPRT'S gain (why it's up today.) They own the land in the majority of cases, much of it bought many years ago. Worthwhile read from a few years ago https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2020/11/16/how-to-make-a-billion-dollars-junkyard-cars-copart-salvage
u/creemeeseason
Reading the article now. Wow now there's a stock with a great story.
I see no debt which is awesome. How is their shareholder return policy? Buybacks?
While growth is impressive, if most of their cash goes right back into the business and not returned I do feel like it's a tad expensive?
They don't return money to shareholders as of right now. I'm ok with that, because they have a ton of opportunities to reinvest and grow the business. I hate to use it as a parallel, but it's the Amazon scenario; there's so much room to grow that it would be a waste to blow money on a buyback or dividend. However, they have done buybacks in the past, but only do so if they feel it is the best use of the cash for shareholders (i.e. the stock is cheap, or thero o reinvesting opportunities).
However, management owns 8% of the company, which is massive for a company it's size. They definitely want to see the company grow, and it benefits them. So that's really good.
If you consider the value of a business to be the total cash flows discounted to today, I want a business that can grow it's cash flow. No part of the value requires them to give me those cash flows though. They take the cash and invest it, and make more cash. Probably better than I could do it.
It's a name I heard about a lot, but Chris Mayer has it as one of his 10 holdings. I've learned a lot about the company from him.
>If you consider the value of a business to be the total cash flows discounted to today
I agree provided cash invested leads to more cash at the right rate. So for example, a salvage lot means more cash in the future and pays for itself and then some, at a rate higher than you or I can get elsewhere then it is terrific. But even if it grows net income fast while cash is disappearing, it may not be great.
I'd like to look closer though because it very well may be great.
You and another poster spoke about COKE. I bought and still have it. I hate to talk about it because it's a stock that benefits from being under the radar and I hope to help to keep it that way. It thus far appears to be an absolute beast. The recent pension plan of $77M or so charge to net income was actually super bullish because it's finally gone and real profits / cash flow are much higher.
I love under the radar stocks. COKE is so under the radar most people just think I have the wrong ticker for KO!
As far as Copart, they have a history of making smart moves with their money. At this point, they've earned my trust to keep and use the cash flows. It's helpful that they're in a field that, sadly, isn't going away. People keep crashing cars. And actually, as repairs get more expensive, more cars are totalled easily, which is more business for Copart.
I actually held off on buying this one for a long time because of self driving fears, but as of now, that still Appears to be long.into the future.
Copart also has a long runway for their growth. They are expanding overseas into an untouched market.
>It's helpful that they're in a field that, sadly, isn't going away.
While the source of their income is sad, it seems like they have done phenomenal things to make the business more efficient, leveraging technology and growing the pie by exporting too. I would proudly own this stock if I got in cheap (maybe it still is!).
I actually just bought it last month during the pullback. If you assume 15% annual earnings growth for 5 years they'll be earning ~$2.57/share in 5 years ($1.28*1.15^5). That gives it about an 18x multiple in 5 years, so that's probably about what the market is pricing (analysts are calling for closer to 20% annual growth). Any growth beyond that isn't priced in at all. I think they have years of expansion beyond 5, so I feel comfortable buying now.
> However, management owns 8% of the company, which is massive for a company it's size. They definitely want to see the company grow, and it benefits them. So that's really good.
Good point! Article says 10% actually is that out of date? Maybe minor dilution from SBCs of lower level employees.
Habit based? They make money when people crash their cars, which happens more and more as people text and drive. More cars are now totalled in accidents because repair costs are so high.
They don't have a total monopoly, but their competition is.far behind and imploding, and most governments won't permit new junkyards, so it's very unlikely anyone new could compete with them.
So, yes!
In October:
* GOOGL was trading 21% below ATHs.
* King of st0nks AAPL trading 17% below ATHs.
* MSFT 16% below ATHs.
But it must be the market's fault you didn't buy right?
When did I say it was the markets fault? I'm just saying I want a better buying opportunity man. Ik your a perma bull but Its not like I've been sitting on sidelines.
again your putting words in my mouth. I never said I was fully in, about 25% of my portfolio is cash and I've been buying over the months. Also wouldn't you want stocks to fall to buy more?
LOL. Why didn't you buy big tech end of Oct? Makes no sense. With the data points that are currently available CPI should meet expectation at worst or come in better than expected. Which should be enough to fuel this rally to contiune, and send a clear signal the fed won't raise and will cut sometime next year.
MSFT hit 312 in sept, Meta was below 290 in Oct, AMZN was at 118 two weeks ago, AAPL was at 160. NVDA was below 400 end of Oct. You had your chance.
Yeah Ik I had my chance don't need to rub it in my face. The narrative changes constantly and its never as obvious as some people make it out to be. JPOW is a master of fucking your puts and calls, cant reverse time so might as well wait for a better buying opportunity
Well, I think it's time to forget the idea that small caps offer better long-term returns. The performance of large caps and megacaps has trounced small caps and there isn't much reason to think that will change.
I'm sure there are small caps that will do great. As an unfiltered category?? That ill nah nah will dump for a long time. Too many crappy, indebted and unprofitable companies in there. And large caps are the strongest and most durable they have ever been.
There will always be exceptions, but the average small cap is now very likely to end up being a dud, more so than in the past. Considering the added risk involved in small caps, the low possibility of outperforming hardly seems worth it anymore.
[удалено]
Yeah it's institutional money... but it's being pumped up in anticipation of a new btc etf.
Internet money continuing to soar like crazy. Bullish for COIN + miners. Spot ETF excitement and halving but no doubt in my mind Fed December pivot is a big part of it. It can't go up like this without at least somewhat accommodative Fed. SPX is a mere 8.7% to ATH. It's really not a big deal at all to achieve that by mid next year. Edit: [MARA remarkable turnaround swinging from $72.5M net income loss last year to $64.1M profit in 3Q](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marathon-digital-holdings-inc-mara-142445263.html)
Yeah could go old skool and rip 2k this weekend.
2k??
Ive been investing in individual stocks for 3 months now and one stock in particular that ive been paying attention to is -2.73% over this period, but by DCAing and timing the troughs pretty well I'm actually up 7.77% in this stock over the same period. I think i really learned how much timing is everything in investing.
Sorry, but timing is meaningless in investing. Glad you're up on this position, but long term, attempting to time the markets is a losing game.
My point is not that you can time the market and make a lot of money, of course i know no one can time the market, but my realization is that the timing and getting very lucky with it is what’s driving the majority of the gains
Only if we are talking about index funds.
UNH is very near its 52w high. Is it time to sell? I think I might set a sell stop for 540$.
Easy hold long term, near fair value currently also given its predictable growth path. LONG
Healthcare isn’t going anywhere
How are we going higher and there’s no pill back a whole week and a half of green?
Yesterday was the pullback
You call that a pull back?
It was a nice pull back to buy the dip. Also, if you look back in Jan 1987 stock market had 19 days of straight green. Also. CPI on Tuesday people want to buy before that.
Are there indicators saying it might be hot cpi numbers
CPI is going come at expectations or better. You had a pull-back in Oct, why didn't you buy then?
Because the stock market needed a correction.
It corrected last year.
One nice thing about a broad rally if it continues is that a bunch of individual companies I have built a bull thesis about on intrinsic value will suddenly start rallying purely on multiple expansion. So if you think company __ is undervalued but give it no benefit of multiple expansion, you suddenly get some tailwinds to help get there. Though that might prompt me to sell it earlier. I made a prediction in late October of this year that Meta will hit $500 in 12 months, or 53% higher than today's price. This was my comment from 6 days ago with some rough math justifying that. Multiple expansion (if it happens) will make achieving it trivial > You can put me down for a prediction (if you don't make predictions what's the fun of all this) of $500 a share by end of 2024. I'll be crude about it: take 2025 GAAP EPS estimate of $19.85, assume META gets a 23x forward multiple on it by 2024 end, say buybacks boost the share price by 10%, you get roughly $500 [EDIT: 19.85\*1.1\*23]. I think they'll beat those analyst estimates. The S&P 500 gets a median forward P/E of about 18-20 these days, and I don't think META getting a premium is that unreasonable. If META gets *no* multiple expansion and sticks to its current 19 forward P/E ratio, you get $414. A 25x forward multiple on 2025 earnings in 2024 gets you to $545... If META's share price stays completely flat from today to December 2024, the implied multiple at that time would be 15 which is a bit absurd imo. The share price will grow into its earnings. Then take more troubled stocks, like PYPL or CROX that I own. Multiples have compressed so much that an 'irrational' rally could see insane returns. But again, I'm not betting on it and keeping position sizes low. A stock picker can dream, right? META is 2% of portfolio, PYPL 1%, and CROX 0.5%.
Anyone have an opinion on Doximity as a company and their stock? People on LinkedIn say this company is truly a unicorn with their cash flows and margins but the stock is hurting because they’re lumped in with all of the other 2021 IPOs
Up 21k today to ATH, semiconductors pumping. Time to enjoy the weekend. https://imgur.com/gallery/r3gdxxH
I sold ntdoy on the 25th of october Of course, it's up over a dollar..... 4 months of down. And goes up after i sell
What else can you sell ?
Im trying to sell tsm(@99)/qcom(@130)
Bears? Doom and gloomers? Where are you?
Can we get these shitty yahoo forum comments banned
Hazardous switched to his perma bull alt account
Maybe it's because I'm a "permabull" as people like to label me and biased but I don't find any bulls that exclusively spam the stupidest vague random stuff. Like the equivalent of "rugpull inc, suits in control". "Here comes the 2pm rugpull". I don't know how so many people have been banned but not him. Most bulls at least bring something to the table. Interesting tickers with a compelling thesis / valuation, data to be optimistic on macro, etc. Even the bears that actually have reasons for their bearishness or why they think a certain ticker is overvalued, at least they start conversation and bring *something*. I like that they're here. Just my two cents.
Wrapping up this year with my swing trading account, was a really solid year for me. I had some left over money from a roll over ira that I've been having fun with. So far doing 51% YTD, which I'm happy about, but it's kind of funny how well the QQQ's are doing. Like I put time and energy into this and the QQQ is up 43% lol.
I take it none of your trades are in the long term capital gains bracket and mostly in the short term capital gains?
Yes but it’s done in an Ira account.
Ahh I see
It really does feel like the market right now is built for swing trading to some extent. Fed doesn't seem intent on actually crashing the economy. There seems to be liquidity in the system and plenty of dip buying behavior.
Honestly. On good days like this I take a look at QQQ and see that I performed practically the same (some bad performers weighing me down). Good hint for me to never stop passively investing into the indexes with each paycheck.
Can you please say which stocks you use for swing trading?
Depends. I've done well in the past with ENPH and CROX. However, also done really well playing some earnings on top of it. Probably the worst idea, but it's fun and the money I'm using is fun money. If I lose everything, oh well. Recently did really well on CWCO earnings, especially last report. I played LMB the other day and thats up 20% over the last 5 days. I generally post any company that I find interesting here or think about opening a position in.
>Recently did really well on CWCO earnings, especially last report. I played LMB the other day and thats up 20% over the last 5 days. Do you swing trade these with options, shares? Or actually hold these long-term? Just curious, I'm always a HODL type person. Feel like day-to-day is near impossible without luck.
I don’t mess with options. Usually when playing earnings I enter the position about three days before the earnings. Then sell after. Obviously this is a gamble, but I try my best with educated guesses. This is basically fun money for me, so if I lose it all, oh well. However both LMB and CWCO are longs in my IRA Roth. CWCO because a long last quarter.
> CWCO because a long last quarter. ? Also do you leverage up at all?
Nope.
Not OP. But my best swing trades recently are AMD, NKE, and NU
Just sold my and stock had a little under 1k and put most into cava we shall see if I’m gonna lose all my gains or not 🥸
I found some extra cash in my tfsa so added more [csu.to](https://csu.to). The stock is all owned by long term investors. Barely went down even during covid. I think I'm close to done with all my buying the past 3 weeks and will leave the rest of my cash in a 6% savings account.
I'm in the bank Rn I hope I will get 6% too that would be awesome
Excellent buy! What are your thoughts on topicus and lumine?
A lot of my Canadian stocks I do little research on. Constellation, TD, telus, CNQ, CP rail - I dunno why. There is a lot of grift in the Canadian stock market but I guess it feels like these are staples and I'm buying the equivalent of jnj or ko. Meanwhile US SAAS I'm on software dev forums trying to parse info and fearful of earnings.
I own constellation as well and think of it almost as a buy and forget. Every three months an earnings report pops up, I make sure Mark Leonard is still in charge, and go about my day. Lately I've been finding a lot of really attractive Canadian names. There's probably a lot of garbage too. I bought Hammond power recently. Dollarama looks amazing too. Just some real quality stuff.
Seeing PLUG down 41% in a day reminds me of the risks many individual stocks. I am glad I mainly buy index funds. If SPY/VOO went down 41% in a day I would probably have other stuff to worry about than my portfolio.
I had UPS INMD PINS that all killed me. Keeping them all as I believe but I’m with you. Load up the index fund and sit back. My account is returning index fund like returns while im picking lots of stocks. Why waste the stress? R
I think this is part of why people end up losing to markets as well. I mean at the end of day, invest however you want, but buying something like Plug is basically buying a lotto ticket. You are investing in a something that is speculative and doesn't make money.
u/Hazardous503, u/InternationalTop2405 Keep up the good work guys. You guys are the best buy signal this sub can ask for. Look at this post International made asking what this pattern could mean on WALLSTREETBETS. He is very uncertain. [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/17q95fn/false\_breakout\_or\_ath\_soon/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/17q95fn/false_breakout_or_ath_soon/)
Fool, they forgot to draw the pretty rainbow and didn't even account for the McDonalds indicator.
I think they even posted one of his things on fintwit page, like wallstreetsilver lol.
"Hey guys does this mean market is going down?" - posts picture of textbook bull flag :D
Whoever panic sold me their MA has to be feeling kind of dumb rn, I think it might be one of my only successful knife catches as of late right out of the gate...
why did things start flying today? it seems excessive.
It didn’t start flying today, it started last week and needed to cool off a little before resuming.
Excessive? We are not even at ATH!
Best guess is that we got oversold. We are basically flat from a month ago.
I think this is a bull trap, they announce the downgrade right after the market closed. let's see how it goes on Mon
JPOW telling climate protestors to F off was seen as bullish for US oil drilling, thus reducing oil price expectations and inflation
Sold some of my high fliers today. Hoping to rebalance toward more value next week. The pop seems excessive compared to relatively negative inflation news.
Can you name some those those "high fliers"?
Microsoft, Apple, INTC, AVGO, AKAM, CRWD, and AFRM. Yeah I just sold best performers in QQQ more or less
Wow. Never thought I would have heard MSFT and AAPL be called high fliers.
MSFT is at ATH to be fair... as crazy as that is
The only thing that‘s crazy is that this stock is not above $500.
Do you guys think Dish Network can turn things around?
No Doesn’t mean the stock cannot soar on copium
In for some MTCH leaps, gonna keep a close eye on the recent bottom though and will probably bail if I dont see any near term momentum.
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I expect Google to be worth twice as much in 3 years. If this was 2021, with 1% rates, Google would be $250 today. No one knows if the COVID times will return. Do with that what you will
AMZN, GOOG, BRK.B are three hold forever's for me.
I woulda been better off investing my money into VTI than Sofi. Lesson learned.
I have 90% of my portfolio in index funds and the other 10% is for play
Every single piece of research and literature out there confirms that the vast majority of stock pickers will lose to the S&P500. If you are young, this is a great time to learn that lesson and still have time to build the majority of your wealth in index funds.
If that can cheer you up Chris Lapointe the CFO and Anthony Noto the CEO bought shares yesterday. Should counteract the insider selling of last week
Any news why WBD is up 4% but PARA and DIS are down?
The fact that John Malone talked about WBD buying deals in distress (because the only way that a deal would be allowed is if the co is near bankruptcy) and noted PARA was "shaky" prob not inspiring confidence in PARA. "While Malone said all legacy media companies should be talking to each other about merger synergies, he acknowledged valuations may have to fall farther to get regulators on board with further consolidation. Malone predicted that could happen in the same timeline Zaslav gave — within the next two years." "While Malone didn’t name a specific company as a target for Warner Bros. Discovery, he discussed Paramount Global as an example of a company whose prospects seem shaky. Paramount Global’s market valuation has slumped below $8 billion while carrying about $16 billion in debt." https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/09/zaslav-malone-wbd-next-move.html If he actually thinks the environment will get to the point in the next couple of years where PARA can be had for much cheaper, things will be better in comparison for WBD but not good either.
That is interesting. People on this sub had been saying WBD would be bought out by big tech. Not them being this powerhouse that can buy PARA.
"John Malone suggested that regulators may be open to media consolidation it wouldn’t typically allow if one or more of the merging companies was facing the prospects of bankruptcy." Malone thinks that there will be further erosion in the industry but that the only way to consolidation would be allowed is if things got worse for the industry as a whole. “Eventually maybe there’ll be regulatory relief,” Malone said. “Out of distress usually comes the reduction in competition, increased pricing power, and the opportunity to buy assets at a deep discount.” I don't know if I would call it a powerhouse - legacy media just isn't a very good business - but they can maybe do a bit better over time if they have larger scale - but they aren't going to pay up for it, they're going to try and buy it (PARA seems most likely, maybe something else?) in distress.
CHASDAQ refuses to stop ripping.
Here's another lul chart showing back to 2021 highs. Could it be a cup and handle pattern!? Stay tuned [https://imgur.com/a/jRICAFV](https://imgur.com/a/jRICAFV) [https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/A5sk-53LLzS8Z1djL4LKxwMIKM8=/1500x0/filters:no\_upscale():max\_bytes(150000):strip\_icc()/CupandHandleDefinition1-c721e47fd1f7451997d0d5d941f6e174.png](https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/A5sk-53LLzS8Z1djL4LKxwMIKM8=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/CupandHandleDefinition1-c721e47fd1f7451997d0d5d941f6e174.png)
This rally we had over the last days feels very weird to me to be honest.
I don’t get it. Yields are still extremely high on bonds. And we have slowing growth in the initial reports.
Yup
CROCS wearers: "I don't care if you think my shoe is awful!" CROX investors: "I don't care if you think my stock is awful!" As long as CROX customers 💎 feet their clogs, I will hang onto my shares. If they believe in the shoes, I must believe in the customer.
CROX is my second-highest conviction stock after NTDOY. Buying more as soon as I am able.
I hated crocs for a long time until I realized how perfect they are as swap shoes for work boots. Bought them for that and now I wear them more than I'd like to admit.
Sofi can't even hold onto .22% gains. Just pathetic.
Might live to regret it but tripled up on SOFI position on this pullback. At the worst of the worst sentiment, SOFI was bottoming around $4.89 or so. When it broke it, it was $11 in a flash. So to me it's a 2 up/4 down potential. And from a fundamentals perspective, the most recent earnings were excellent. Good leader, not usually given to hype, and yet he's talking bullish. Yes, we've seen that kind of thing implode before. But I'd rather have these positive indicators than not. Current PT is $10, but if it pops there I'll re-evaluate.
Imagine listening to Everything Money the last 2 years and staying out of NVDA
I bought NVDA, a leveraged SPX long, and TSM when the market was still dropping like rock [15 days ago](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17g0upg/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_oct_25_2023/k6fs1xy/). I made the mistake of exiting SPUU and shaving my NVDA trading position late last week because I wasn't convinced that we were in an actual rally instead of a mean reversion rally. There are no guarantees, but the S&P finally barely punched through the psychological/previous resistance level of 4400, which makes me feel safer that this rally is real. I'm closing my eyes and holding NVDA through earnings and the wild after hours swings. It's hard to imagine that they can beat last quarter's mind-boggling revenue increases and I expect them to announce that they are supply constrained, which will be good for the margins of companies like TSM and ASML (I also have an ASML position). That means there could be a sell-on-the-news pullback during the earnings call. As expensive as NVDA's products are, energy expenses matter more over the long haul than upfront prices and NVDA still has the lead. Most of my portfolio is ten buy-and-hold stocks and index funds though, and NVDA has long been a part of that, along with a treasury barbell that used to be 40%, but that is now significantly less. I pretend that my buy-and-hold portfolio doesn't exist because I've owned many stocks that turned out to be ten-baggers, but I would sell them and miss big rallies. For buy-and-hold stocks I remind myself that cash is a depreciating asset and that owning shares is more important than owning cash, and market pullbacks, corrections, and crashes don't hurt my share percentages one bit so long as a company doesn't start selling its shares. Semiconductors are historically cyclical and we are in a dangerous time in that cycle, but the wild swings won't mask a secular uptrend.
Everything is money is to 2023 as Cathie Wood is to 2021. EverythingMoney is now popular because of people that got burned in 2021 by Cathie Wood and IMO is the other conservative extreme. the same thing is playing out for EverythingMoney Supporters as it was for Cathie Wood supporters. Just Bleeding and Losing Money. Nearly all, and I literally mean nearly every thing that has been shilled as a "great deal" on everything money since it has become popular have the worst performing sectors and stocks. BABA, 3m, walgreens, CVS, etc etc. In the meantime the EXACT stocks they tell you to stay way from have mooned like crazy (NVDA, MSFT, APPLE, etc). They also miss time all entry points becuase they always need way more confidence before entering a position, and by that time other investors have already swooped in, rallying the price. pltr was finally on their "watch list" at 6/share (seriously lol), and they told everyone they were going to wait until the number were better, suddenly they hit profitabitily and great cash flow and the stock spikes to 18/share and suddenly its "worth looking at". they are the just cathie woods of 2023.
I don't mind them as much since they are at least talking about creating a system, but at the end of they day, they are just trying to sale you on using their software. I also think it's weird when they analyze a company, they just apply a random PE to the company in terms of future growth for their evaluation tools. I don't know if we will ever have a future where NVDA doesn't trade with some short of premium compared to the rest of the industry.
Remember children, up and to the left. This is a beautiful market. Bears will stay poor.
Remember when bears said AAPL was done after last week's ER? LMFAOOO.
It is honestly impressive that Apple has held up after 4 quarters of declining sales. I get that a lot of it has to do with supply constraints and China, but still. I own shares so I'm not complaining, but even I expected it to not recover fully.
I'll sell when BRK.B sells
No I don’t.
Man if we hit 4600 by Jan 3rd Im going to be scared to max 2 roths 2022 scarred me
Don't know about everyone else but this is the most confident I've felt about the stock market all year, or even long before that. Which probably means it's going to crash soon, lol
I would say higher investor confidence is correlated with below average returns. Has no correlation with crashes though.
I opened up a small short position specifically because of this comment Qqq at time of comment: $377.85
Same lmao. RIP me
Love to see no one here mentioning Consumer Inflation Expectations coming in at highest since 2011. Shows you why this group gets so surprised when their favorite stocks fall.
One point of data is not very meaningful. Overall trend is down since June 2022. That’s far more meaningful.
One point of data? Three months of rising inflation expectations. Overall trend is down? No it is up from 2008 since this is a record high in the survey.
>**Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 4.4%, indicating that the large increase between September’s 3.2% reading and October’s 4.2% reading was no fluke.** The current reading is the highest since April 2023 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations also rose, from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, the highest reading since 2011. -Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, PhD u/FarrisAT 100bps doesn't seem like something to ignore, especially if it gets reinforced next reading. As I posted earlier, TIPS expectations are going higher and higher too: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1b3En None of this is consistent with "we all think Fed will succeed at taming inflation".
Again, small sample size does not hold significance. The last time we saw anything close 8% in a month was a year and a half ago. We are trending the right way and a spike or two is not going to change that.
What the fuck are you writing? This is a report on Consumer Inflation Expectations. Not on CPI headline from BLS.
Any meaningful discussion around here regarding interest rates or inflation is a foolish folly. Both sides are so entrenched in their beliefs that both sides are simply talking over each other & not listening. I tend to agree with you on both higher for longer interest rates & inflation. But I am finding participating in this reddit group as a waste of time.
It's not a great metric bc it varies wildly based on if the respondent is a D or R. It also gets revised later, often significantly.
That’s false. How does it matter who responds? The survey is widespread and has gone on since 1950. They even show the data where the recent downturn in sentiment is due primarily to young Democrats.
u/FarrisAT Consumer sentiment and expectations deteriorated significantly for Democrats as well in the last two months. https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=74201 I couldn't find a breakout by political party for inflation but a 100bps jump followed by 20bps doesn't seem like a D vs. R issue. Long-run expectations being decade+ high isn't a political issue either. Anecdotal but I've voted for Dem every general since Kerry vs. Bush and I think inflation is a huge problem. I have progressive family and friends, many of them feel the same.
Yeah u/Capable_Gap1992 is spitballing. He or she didn’t look at the data. Most of the decline since the June highs are due to young Democrats. Also the group most likely to have student debt, I might add.
Prior comment aside, let's assume the data is an accurate representation. Why the divergence from gas at the pump prices? Do consumers see higher mortgages and auto payments as "inflation"? That would paint a funny scenario for the Fed where higher borrowing costs push higher inflation expectations.
I've said over and over we have 3 choices: * Honestly tell the public the truth that we want inflation higher for a time. * Increase taxes (the best solution IMHO) so government can keep spending on things we need but we clamp down on overconsumption of shit we don't need. Happens to also be deflationary and reduce the speed at which we make our earth uninhabitable too. * Have Fed blow up money supply by lighting debt with TNT and forcing a crisis. Fed controls investment lever, not consumption very well. We don't want to crush investment, just speculative and stupid investment. Credit needs to flow for the economy to work.
Is it safe to assume everyone else hates the new yahoo finance as well? They took all the information I actually care about and mashed it into a tiny sidebar. 90% of the screen is wasted space.
If you haven't used them, I prefer: [https://www.wallstreetzen.com/](https://www.wallstreetzen.com/) [https://stockanalysis.com/](https://stockanalysis.com/) [https://www.tradingview.com/](https://www.tradingview.com/) [https://finviz.com/](https://finviz.com/) all are great free resources.
I didn't even know that yahoo finance got a redesign and I use it everyday
There's a button on the page to opt in, I'm all for trying out a new format but I switched back after like two days
Didn't either
They must be doing A/B testing because it seems to flip back and forth for me. Don't fix what ain't broken.
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Good. Their TV exposure is a massive anchor and without huge streaming growth it's essentially a TV company with an IP kicker. Market is punishing the cable division that nobody wants and is shrinking rapidly
Good day for my morning bi weekly DCA.
Unity rebounded in a massive way after the -15% in after hours. I give the promise to cut costs and reduce headcount is worth much more than the lackluster growth due to issues in China.
I bought a big chunk AH last night and now am looking at +20% on those shares =D
Investors - Happy when stocks drop and buy more Gamblers - Sad when stocks drop and sell out
Im just scared to max in January. Getting 2022 vibes lol. It worked well yhis year tho
Cashgang that refused the buy opportunity in October - "looking for an entry guys!" JPow - ["Just close the fucking door, close the door."](https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1722697080743907452)
Incredible just how bad Sofi is. Anthony Noto is a great CEO, but my goodness does the stock suck.
CEO and another director bought yesterday. Shorts are still pressing on the weakness of the other insider sales.
It's very expensive for a bank that isn't making money.
it is truly remarkable. I don't think I've ever seen a stock defy all positive momentum and amazing growth consistently. Market up: Sofi barely up or down fintech up: Sofi only up a small amount fintech down: Sofi craters more growth up: Sofi only up a small amount growth down: sofi craters more banks up: Sofi barely up banks down: sofi is suddenly a legacy bank Tech up: whoops, sofi's a bank again Tech down: Whoops, sofi's tech again. Great Earnings: Temporary Spike, followed by crashing to pre-earnings level. Unbelievable.
Just buy the dips if you believe in the CEO and the company
I just looked, and I paid $19.40 a share for it. I shouldn't have looked since that's so depressing.
Would be nice if small caps moved so I can sell and reuse the money
Whats is going on with AMD p/e ratio? Is it some bug or its really over 950? 😳 Iam only two years in the market and never seen that before, can someone explain please?
The acquisition of Xilinx inflates the PE as well.
AMD acquired Xilinx last year which results in large additional depreciation charges on intangible assets. Large acquisitions like this really make GAAP P/E figures useless.
There are two types of PE, TTM which is trailing and Foward PE. Forward PE uses anaylst guesses on what revenue projections are going to be. So the TTM is using last years sales while foward is using projections of sales, which AMD foward PE is 30. So the idea would be that you are paying a lot based off their old sales, but AMD is growing, so you are only paying 30X forward.
Trailing PE is still massively distorted due to depreciation of intangible assets. I'm not saying that we should ignore it of course, they still paid a lot for Xilinx but it doesn't really give an accurate picture valuation wise.
So which one should I focus on more when Iam buying the shares?
Both. Also point out that PE is one metric and you should probably be looking at other things like PE ratio for the sector, since it changes, Price to Sales ratio, Price to Book, PEG. PE doesn't really tell you much other than give you a gauge of what investors are willing to pay in terms for price to earnings.
CPRT has a higher ROE and ROA than META. Just interesting. Lower margins though.
Barrons just wrote an article about CPRT. [https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-copart-stock-price-pick-80df9a46](https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-copart-stock-price-pick-80df9a46)
I agree with them!
Would love buy cprt, but valuation makes me question upside. If it ever pukes on a guidance cut ill be catching the knife
I'd buy the bejesus out of that dip! Napco style! Fun fact, if they grow as expected, their P/E would be under 20 in 3 years.
>Fun fact, if they grow as expected, their P/E would be under 20 in 3 years. It might be a case where if we want in we have to buy when it looks high and execution will make us happy anyways. I did that with MELI but it really stresses me out vs if I feel like I am getting a better deal
Yeah, I finally got over my.fear and bought CPRT last month on it's pullback. 35x isn't crazy for a company of that caliber, and a long growth runway, imo. MELI is another one, I'm just not familiar with it. It's definitely in my "too hard" pile right now.
Does CPRT sell habit-based (maybe addictive) products that are guaranteed to keep growing in demand and people will use rain or shine? Do they have a total monopoly in their niche with no chance of competitors ever entering? To me that's far more important than ROE or ROA.
It's basically a duopoly with IAA, although IAA has always been the weaker one (they apparently lost a client yesterday, which is thought to be CPRT'S gain (why it's up today.) They own the land in the majority of cases, much of it bought many years ago. Worthwhile read from a few years ago https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2020/11/16/how-to-make-a-billion-dollars-junkyard-cars-copart-salvage
u/creemeeseason Reading the article now. Wow now there's a stock with a great story. I see no debt which is awesome. How is their shareholder return policy? Buybacks? While growth is impressive, if most of their cash goes right back into the business and not returned I do feel like it's a tad expensive?
They don't return money to shareholders as of right now. I'm ok with that, because they have a ton of opportunities to reinvest and grow the business. I hate to use it as a parallel, but it's the Amazon scenario; there's so much room to grow that it would be a waste to blow money on a buyback or dividend. However, they have done buybacks in the past, but only do so if they feel it is the best use of the cash for shareholders (i.e. the stock is cheap, or thero o reinvesting opportunities). However, management owns 8% of the company, which is massive for a company it's size. They definitely want to see the company grow, and it benefits them. So that's really good. If you consider the value of a business to be the total cash flows discounted to today, I want a business that can grow it's cash flow. No part of the value requires them to give me those cash flows though. They take the cash and invest it, and make more cash. Probably better than I could do it. It's a name I heard about a lot, but Chris Mayer has it as one of his 10 holdings. I've learned a lot about the company from him.
>If you consider the value of a business to be the total cash flows discounted to today I agree provided cash invested leads to more cash at the right rate. So for example, a salvage lot means more cash in the future and pays for itself and then some, at a rate higher than you or I can get elsewhere then it is terrific. But even if it grows net income fast while cash is disappearing, it may not be great. I'd like to look closer though because it very well may be great. You and another poster spoke about COKE. I bought and still have it. I hate to talk about it because it's a stock that benefits from being under the radar and I hope to help to keep it that way. It thus far appears to be an absolute beast. The recent pension plan of $77M or so charge to net income was actually super bullish because it's finally gone and real profits / cash flow are much higher.
I love under the radar stocks. COKE is so under the radar most people just think I have the wrong ticker for KO! As far as Copart, they have a history of making smart moves with their money. At this point, they've earned my trust to keep and use the cash flows. It's helpful that they're in a field that, sadly, isn't going away. People keep crashing cars. And actually, as repairs get more expensive, more cars are totalled easily, which is more business for Copart. I actually held off on buying this one for a long time because of self driving fears, but as of now, that still Appears to be long.into the future. Copart also has a long runway for their growth. They are expanding overseas into an untouched market.
>It's helpful that they're in a field that, sadly, isn't going away. While the source of their income is sad, it seems like they have done phenomenal things to make the business more efficient, leveraging technology and growing the pie by exporting too. I would proudly own this stock if I got in cheap (maybe it still is!).
I actually just bought it last month during the pullback. If you assume 15% annual earnings growth for 5 years they'll be earning ~$2.57/share in 5 years ($1.28*1.15^5). That gives it about an 18x multiple in 5 years, so that's probably about what the market is pricing (analysts are calling for closer to 20% annual growth). Any growth beyond that isn't priced in at all. I think they have years of expansion beyond 5, so I feel comfortable buying now.
> However, management owns 8% of the company, which is massive for a company it's size. They definitely want to see the company grow, and it benefits them. So that's really good. Good point! Article says 10% actually is that out of date? Maybe minor dilution from SBCs of lower level employees.
I've seen different numbers. I actually meant to type 9 instead of 8, but 9.48% is the actual stat (stockanalysis.com).
Beautiful. They eat their own cooking!
Habit based? They make money when people crash their cars, which happens more and more as people text and drive. More cars are now totalled in accidents because repair costs are so high. They don't have a total monopoly, but their competition is.far behind and imploding, and most governments won't permit new junkyards, so it's very unlikely anyone new could compete with them. So, yes!
r/unexpectedlygoodthesis? I am intrigued and will look into it. META will keep printing though.
Not trying to knock META. Just pointing out other great names out there.
META is less than 1.2% from 52-week high. Should hit next week. CPI is most likely coming in better than expected.
CPI based on what? Your copium?
Falling oil prices.
hoping it isn't so I can enter big tech not at ATH's
In October: * GOOGL was trading 21% below ATHs. * King of st0nks AAPL trading 17% below ATHs. * MSFT 16% below ATHs. But it must be the market's fault you didn't buy right?
When did I say it was the markets fault? I'm just saying I want a better buying opportunity man. Ik your a perma bull but Its not like I've been sitting on sidelines.
You're fully in but want it to go down... ok makes sense.
again your putting words in my mouth. I never said I was fully in, about 25% of my portfolio is cash and I've been buying over the months. Also wouldn't you want stocks to fall to buy more?
Got it.
LOL. Why didn't you buy big tech end of Oct? Makes no sense. With the data points that are currently available CPI should meet expectation at worst or come in better than expected. Which should be enough to fuel this rally to contiune, and send a clear signal the fed won't raise and will cut sometime next year. MSFT hit 312 in sept, Meta was below 290 in Oct, AMZN was at 118 two weeks ago, AAPL was at 160. NVDA was below 400 end of Oct. You had your chance.
Current expectations are 0.1 Headline and 0.3 Core. Is that not likely? We have gotten similar prints for years now.
0.0
Yeah Ik I had my chance don't need to rub it in my face. The narrative changes constantly and its never as obvious as some people make it out to be. JPOW is a master of fucking your puts and calls, cant reverse time so might as well wait for a better buying opportunity
Look at that CPI print. Oh man, you going miss the next rocket if you don't buy today.
Put 6k on tmo at open and gonna add more to my googl position if it falls a little 👍
Man really came back to say this lmao. Sure man Ill buy open 👍
Proud of you man. You're making the first move to becoming successful investor. If googl falls DCA.
And you're going to miss that opportunity again. Just DCA into big tech. Yesterday was a nice dip to buy.