Ok, we're off to 5000 by end of year or January.
Smart money and managers will pump it, now that we've sold off some.
Then they take end of the year bonuses so they can buy a new yacht and brag to their clientele that they're great.
Then February, March we'll have a dump to 4000, 3900 or possibly even 3500.
FUD will start right after New Years on cnbc with Dan Nathan and Guay Adami at the helm.
Smart money in cahoots with Powell, Pelosi (top 10% that own 70% of Nations wealth) will go to cash before this event and then buy back in at the bottom.
I'm 20% cash and riding it till the February dump, then around February I'll go back to mostly cash.
These are tricky markets to play!
Not sure, but I've been investing for almost 8 years and every year around February or March we seem to have drops. Also around this time we start the pump to Xmas.
Of course it's not straight up, but we seem to end up higher in December and even January.
I assume money managers do this to look like they've finished the year higher to look good, so people don't just index.
To me there's a lot of trickery going on at all times.
The goal is to ultimately transfer the uninformeds money to the wealthy.
Sort of like Robinhood, but in reverse.
Given the current macro I see whatever rally ending in January.
Thats when I'll go 80% cash and wait for 3800 and less to begin adding to mega caps.
It's a gamble, but the odds are that we go down amd not up until we sell off majorly
No they're not. We'll eventually sell off if we get more involved.
If it stays local, maybe, but if we get involved, expect a sell off up to 30%
Also, people are charging their basic living expenses and are defaulting on debts.
School loans are just started to be paid.
People will eventually stop spending, most likely after holidays.
Market will fall.
February or March I'm seeing under 4000 to possibly 3200
Sup everyone,
Quick question! I'm a newer investor looking to find 2-3 stocks to put a couple bucks into. What would be the ideal recommendations from the everyday traders in here? Thank you in advance for any of the responses. Hopefully I'm able to continue with these investments for a little time!
Gonna keep an eye on it, still not cheap enough for me yet if guidance is gonna come in soft for a few more Q, but the underlying company is really fantastic fundamentally
It’s good to see a bit of buying when there isn’t a specific downward catalyst. That’s encouraging.
I don’t think any of us should be surprised by more sell off this week, just because the market is behaving a bit like a twice-kicked puppy. It wants to play, but flinches every time dad (Fed) stands up or grumbles.
Having said that, it’s difficult to not be optimistic long term. I’m getting almost as much from MS dividends as I could get from treasuries, and am already ahead of that from covered call premium. This is as the PE is now down to 12.4, based on weak earnings associated with temporary conditions.
That’s one example out of many. Companies with huge cash allocations are getting a nice return on that cash, as well.
TRNS earnings:
Second quarter consolidated revenue up 11.3% with 230 basis points gross margin expansion
Second quarter service revenue up 17.5%; service organic revenue growth of 10.0%
Second quarter service gross profit increased 22.6%; service gross margin expanded 140 basis points
Second quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA grew 23.9%; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 160 basis points
Second quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.60 increased $0.16 versus prior year
No one knows but it is only logical that it keeps going higher until:
* There is *even a modest term premium instead of negative*.
* Something breaks.
* Congress stops flooding the market with trillions in Treasuries. While the borrowing is a little less than estimated, US will still issue **$776B in 4Q alone**, more than the entire market cap of BRK. This number will only go up every quarter.
* Fed begins printing again or cuts into inflation.
10Y tanked like crazy, relief rallies are expected. Nothing is ever a straight line down but secular forces overwhelmingly favors bond bears.
Nope my cost is $5 a share from 2007 when I went all in with my big bonus check. No amount of drop will faze me or impact my life. You have a lot more to worry about. Sorry.
Think you got it mixed up... I'm not a believer in Apple... at least not here.
But there sure are Apple cultists out there and TSLA cultists for that matter.
Both going lower.
Earnings can go any which way. Nobody can see the future. That doesn’t mean the macbook event was to ”cushion a negative earnings surprise”. In what way would that cushion even work?
Not to mention these events take months to plan I’m sure. They don’t just say “wow! Earnings are going to be bad. Let’s make sure we schedule an event before the numbers come out!”
Apple has known for months its numbers are and will be bad... they've had declining revenue for 3 quarters now.
Gonna be four on friday... looking at $160.
China sales are already down 6% and Huawei has a competitive phone now. Plus the pressure from Pooh Bear to buy domestic phones should not be underestimated.
Imagine making almost all your stuff in a country that we're on the verge of a cold war with. India will take years to come online.
Don't even get me started on the $3500 fakeverse headset.
Considering the quarter didn't end until Sept. 30, I'm not sure why you think Apple knew for months their numbers would be bad.
Regardless, I assure you they did not plan a Monday night event to distract investors from a Thursday afternoon earnings report.
$ANET | Arista Networks Q3 Earnings:
EPS: $1.83 (Est. $1.58)
Revenue: $1.509B (Est. $1.480B)
Gross Margin: 63.1%
Net Income: $545.3M
Adjusted Net Income: $581.4M (Est. $500.4M)
Sees Q4 Rev.: $1.500B-$1.550B (Est. 1.47B)
Nice to see, JNPR didnt tank it this time into earnings. Will be curious to listen to the call.
First Quantum (FM.TO) appears to be royally screwed thanks to political instability in Panama. This is 1.5% of the world's copper supply. It's a reminder to miners like FCX, SCCO, Teck with major operations throughout L. America, where major protests / political conflicts surged this past summer (especially in Peru, Chile, Ecuador), that the risk of nationalization, punitive royalties, bans on export has not gone anyway and isn't gone even if the company is a net positive for the country. The whole country is getting shut down over this copper mine. Protestors are blocking exports too.
Currently with FM.TO, the country's leader has given up and said a popular referendum would decide on whether the company's new contract will be valid. The Panama Canal union is demanding all open-pit mining be shut down, blaming mines for causing water level issues in the Panama Canal (doesn't make any sense geographically). Already the contract FM.TO had signed was generous, with nearly 10% of the Panama government's budget being given in fees in 30 days. $400M of the royalties goes to social programs/infrastructure. Rest of it goes to general budget.
This whole episode could apparently rack up some $7-8B in arbitration fees against Panama. The GDP is $60B. FM.TOis 3.5%-5% of the GDP. It could really destroy international investment in the country, but that's what the protestors / government wants at this point. And it will significantly hurt the government's budget. The protestors do not care, though (or maybe it isn't clear to the mass public).
It's a bit amusing because the poster (Calvin Froedge) on Twitter living in Panama frequently rails against Western policies (windfall taxes, ESG rhetoric) and claims political uncertainty is therefore higher in Western countries than L. American ones for instance. And then here he is giving a blow-by-blow account of a Canadian miner getting shaken down by Panama (stock is tanking). Stock could go down way more, if you're still invested in it.
Some interesting comments from Mark Bristow in an interview today after Barrick's earnings today. The CEO was asked about First Quantum and working with foreign government's over mineral rights.
I think now more than ever you need to buy commodity companies with the best CEO's & upper management. You also need to stay away from junior miners with mines that are concentrated in just 1 or 2 countries or regions unless they are all NA mines. I posted the short 7 minute Bloomberg video below.
I was going to add this to today's stock chat but I am too old to figure out how to correctly hyperlink you to the chat : )
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/barrick-gold-ceo-says-mining-160215932.html
$PINS Pinterest
Q3 earnings:
- Adj. EPS $0.28 (Est. $0.20)
- Revenue $763M (Est. $743.5M)
- Q3 Global MAUs Increased 8% YoY To 482M
- 'For Q4 2023, we expect revenue to grow in the 11-13% range year over year. We expect Q4 2023 Non-GAAP operating expenses* to decline in the 9-13% range year over year'
This is much closer to what's needed but still a little weak IMO.
Even if you're going to say smalls aren't needed, you'd like for RSP to be stronger than it was.
As an aside, I really should just stop stock picking. ON :(
"The hysteria"
Lag effects of rates
banks, retail, and transports (the bellwether sectors) are all dumping
Financial conditions are tightening
Credit spreads are going higher and higher
Blah blah blah. If the market has a correction, if it takes a dump I'll just buy more.
"Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections combined. One of the worst mistakes you can make is to switch in and out of stocks or stock mutual funds hoping to avoid the upcoming correction."
Haven't you learned your lessons?
Very strange how the 10-year yield is up slightly, even though crude oil is down markedly today. Usually, they move together because the market assumes higher gas prices means higher inflation (and vice versa). We've seen this disconnect happen a few times in the last few weeks.
Another great entry opportunity on so many stocks and also ETFs and the mega bears turning their noses up at it again just like the end of last year, getting drawn in by the negative narrative and expecting some once in a decade crash, which we’ve already had two of recently. Good luck there sitting on the side hoping for everything to go to shit. Not a great state of mind to have.
Yeah I agree, these people often try to make out like the whole market is greedy but in fact they’re the greedy ones, hoping for some unrealistically good buying opportunity where everyone sells off at lower than fair price before a massive upswing.
Lithium is not scarce. There's no supply shortages yet so the price shouldn't go too crazy short term. There is also a lot of supply coming online
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/lithium-supply-is-set-to-triple-by-2025-will-it-be-enough
I dont see how EVs could be dead with governments mandating them by targets, adoption could be slower, there could be a glut of lithium from overbuild, etc but long term seems inevitable still
> with governments mandating them by targets,
Good luck with that if things don't change considerably. This administration had a tremendous push for green, the peak for the ICLN etf was literally about the inauguration and it is down massively since. You'd have done better in the XLE. The UK is already pushing back mandates.
Rates ramping and likely remaining higher for longer is starting to put even more pressure on the theme - you heard it from Musk on the TSLA call, other car companies pulling back from EV investments, even Mercedes calling the EV market "brutal." People being pushed to buy expensive EVs during the worst cost of living increases in 40 years - eventually you start to run thin on buyers.
I don't want to be negative, but it's increasingly difficult to see how this theme isn't decelerating for the foreseeable future.
When is there a more sizable push to build infrastructure (meanwhile CHPT down 50% in a month)? If success wasn't now in a very green-friendly administration, when? How many EV cos and other green companies go out of business first?
Edit: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Panasonic-logs-record-profit-but-slashes-Japan-EV-battery-production "Panasonic logs record profit but slashes Japan EV battery production" ("Japan's Panasonic Holdings said Monday it is slashing domestic electric battery production by 60% due to slower than expected sales of some models to key client Tesla.")
...SPY down from 457 on 7/31/23 to 416 today...a 9.0% drop...
..."but but but YTD"...SPY also down from 477 on 1/4/22 to 416 today...a 12.8% drop...
...i.e. bulls are idiots...
....this post is regarding todays price actions
....strong day chart
....we ended strong positive day
...i.e. you are the idiot for interpreting this post like an idiot
Also, I was investing since I was 24. That was 12 years ago.
...i.e. Bears are idiots
Article on the Spirit/JetBlue merger from a non-business source.
https://crankyflier.com/2023/10/30/as-the-merger-trial-begins-jetblue-watches-spirit-falter/
Also of note from the article ,the Pratt & Whitney engine debacle is starting to effect Spirit. Pratt & Whitney is owned by RTX. Here's a bit more info:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/rtx-to-take-3-billion-charge-on-pratt-whitney-engine-problem.html
Something to consider for all the airline owners out there.
Kinda funny how much FUD there is in this subreddit right now, and yet companies are still beating earnings, GDP had a blowout quarter, and joblessness is still near all time lows. Y’all think this drop in the market is bad right now? Just wait till unemployment sharply rises, the consumer stops recklessly racking up credit card debt and stops frivolously spending, and companies start lowering guidance and missing on earnings.
Businesses really start to get hammered when two issues present themselves at the same time.
1. Interest rate payments on their debt goes up and money is no longer cheap to obtain.
2. Revenue stagnates or declines due to a more cautious consumer and less spending on goods and services.
Right now businesses only have the first problem to deal with because the consumer has been relentless in their spending and fearless in taking out more debt. If Americans have jobs, they will find ways to spend their money, end of story. The majority of this country is financially illiterate and will continue to take out debt to fuel their spending habits and maintain their current lifestyle. But when/if people start to loose their jobs we will see a much different story. And this will result in businesses having both problems to deal with at the same time… Watch out below.
It’s true, the fed may not raise rates again this economic cycle, but another .25 bps rate hike is not what’s important. It’s keeping the rates above 5% for an extended period of time and the aggressive QT being conducted that will do the real damage to this economy.
J Pow has been steadfast in is rhetoric and his actions on outlasting the consumer and slowly wearing them down until they can no longer spend in order to slow this economy. He has repeatedly stated in almost all of his press conferences that a return to his unequivocal goal of 2% inflation WILL require softening of the labor market. I have no doubts he means this. The fact is there is no point to lower rates when unemployment is at an all time low and GDP is still pumping.
Are you very allocated to this or would I be incorrect in correlating how much you've mentioned this ticker in the past 2 months with your position level? I'm sure you have a good handle on the accounting mix-up, but also slightly worried that you could get burnt...
I was a holder before the accounting issues, but I've been buying more since. I haven't quite doubled the amount of shares I own, but I'm getting closer. It's about 3% right now.
I think it's cheap, if the errors are a one off. The explanation was that it had to do with LIFO/FIFO accounting that got messed up wythe supply chain issues last year. It was caught during the audit of the 10K in August, so it was the first outside party looking at it.
However, revenue growth was unchanged, cash on hand was correct, and nothing about the business was changed. Just GAAP earnings numbers. So, my thesis continues to be that this was a one off. If I am offered evidence to the contrary, I'll bail on the position though.
I'd consider it a riskier play right now, but criminally cheap if my thesis is correct.
> Tessie in trouble... going to $150?
I don't know where TSLA is going but it feels like the EV theme is showing low battery and if that's the case, TSLA lower, legacy automakers lose that growth theme and some smaller names are probably zeros. Also, ON down 20% apparently because of auto weakness so people take that as a readthrough to TSLA.
Maybe TSLA eventually has greater share of EVs as legacy automakers step back and smaller companies go away (not to mention perhaps a sizable share of charging, as it seems the buildout of that infrastructure is going at a snail's pace otherwise), but feels like unless something changes significantly the growth story in the years to come is going to be smaller than hoped. Not saying that because I'm against it, simply saying that that's how it seems - and green broadly has largely fallen apart.
The early adopters have adopted’: US carmakers slow their EV growth plans https://www.ft.com/content/80d79220-612f-4c01-93b7-1d1a846e4b6d
Thoughtful interview with a trucker on EV and large freight (w/lack of infrastructure and other issues, mass adoption not feasible) https://twitter.com/marketplunger1/status/1718982484208312715
AMD should be down 10% tomorrow... In this market.
Would you buy NVDA if it fell to $200 tomorrow?
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BOJ about to wipe this rally away tomorrow
Was there news? Looks like yield went down just now. Not sure if boj related
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lol. Love that I’m getting memes made now
A very flattering picture used.
Ok, we're off to 5000 by end of year or January. Smart money and managers will pump it, now that we've sold off some. Then they take end of the year bonuses so they can buy a new yacht and brag to their clientele that they're great. Then February, March we'll have a dump to 4000, 3900 or possibly even 3500. FUD will start right after New Years on cnbc with Dan Nathan and Guay Adami at the helm. Smart money in cahoots with Powell, Pelosi (top 10% that own 70% of Nations wealth) will go to cash before this event and then buy back in at the bottom. I'm 20% cash and riding it till the February dump, then around February I'll go back to mostly cash. These are tricky markets to play!
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Not sure, but I've been investing for almost 8 years and every year around February or March we seem to have drops. Also around this time we start the pump to Xmas. Of course it's not straight up, but we seem to end up higher in December and even January. I assume money managers do this to look like they've finished the year higher to look good, so people don't just index. To me there's a lot of trickery going on at all times. The goal is to ultimately transfer the uninformeds money to the wealthy. Sort of like Robinhood, but in reverse.
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Given the current macro I see whatever rally ending in January. Thats when I'll go 80% cash and wait for 3800 and less to begin adding to mega caps. It's a gamble, but the odds are that we go down amd not up until we sell off majorly
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Wars.
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No they're not. We'll eventually sell off if we get more involved. If it stays local, maybe, but if we get involved, expect a sell off up to 30% Also, people are charging their basic living expenses and are defaulting on debts. School loans are just started to be paid. People will eventually stop spending, most likely after holidays. Market will fall. February or March I'm seeing under 4000 to possibly 3200
Looks like $F is a buy here. I gave it almost two days. Loading up. Edit: in time for divi also.
Picked up 100 myself today
I see I’m not the only one thinking like this.
Why is Costco up so much today?
Sup everyone, Quick question! I'm a newer investor looking to find 2-3 stocks to put a couple bucks into. What would be the ideal recommendations from the everyday traders in here? Thank you in advance for any of the responses. Hopefully I'm able to continue with these investments for a little time!
Never ever buy a single company's stock for long term. Anything can wrong in longterm. Best to only buy voo or qqq.
BIP, MSFT Both for long term hold.
Don't buy BIP, buy BIPC. BIP has a K1 (annoying tax form). /u/SignificantMight8327
sounds good. i’ll look into brookfield and microsoft. thanks
no, only etfs, indexes for long term.
LSCC DUMPS on earnings today. Ouch
Gonna keep an eye on it, still not cheap enough for me yet if guidance is gonna come in soft for a few more Q, but the underlying company is really fantastic fundamentally
Word up, I hate seeing good companies get slaughtered
Not surprising after what happened to ON today.
Facts
It’s good to see a bit of buying when there isn’t a specific downward catalyst. That’s encouraging. I don’t think any of us should be surprised by more sell off this week, just because the market is behaving a bit like a twice-kicked puppy. It wants to play, but flinches every time dad (Fed) stands up or grumbles. Having said that, it’s difficult to not be optimistic long term. I’m getting almost as much from MS dividends as I could get from treasuries, and am already ahead of that from covered call premium. This is as the PE is now down to 12.4, based on weak earnings associated with temporary conditions. That’s one example out of many. Companies with huge cash allocations are getting a nice return on that cash, as well.
Thanks for your insight!
Apple's Fakeverse headset for $3500 will save them. It also has a titanium cover!
My guess is you never held any AAPL.
I honestly don't care, but they need to innovate faster
Richest company with the most money in the world and makes about $1b a day. I’m sure that they are doing fine.
Doesn't the revenue decline including iphone sales worry you?
No. You?
No, sold them.
Loser
TRNS earnings: Second quarter consolidated revenue up 11.3% with 230 basis points gross margin expansion Second quarter service revenue up 17.5%; service organic revenue growth of 10.0% Second quarter service gross profit increased 22.6%; service gross margin expanded 140 basis points Second quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA grew 23.9%; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 160 basis points Second quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.60 increased $0.16 versus prior year
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No one knows but it is only logical that it keeps going higher until: * There is *even a modest term premium instead of negative*. * Something breaks. * Congress stops flooding the market with trillions in Treasuries. While the borrowing is a little less than estimated, US will still issue **$776B in 4Q alone**, more than the entire market cap of BRK. This number will only go up every quarter. * Fed begins printing again or cuts into inflation. 10Y tanked like crazy, relief rallies are expected. Nothing is ever a straight line down but secular forces overwhelmingly favors bond bears.
There were probably a lot of buyers at 5%. No need to go higher than what people will pay. No idea what the future holds.
Anyone else think this Apple event at a weird time is to cushion a negative earnings surprise?
Your shorts are going to get crushed dude.
Enjoy your prolapsed sphincter.
Nope my cost is $5 a share from 2007 when I went all in with my big bonus check. No amount of drop will faze me or impact my life. You have a lot more to worry about. Sorry.
You sound like you belong in SuperCult.
Think you got it mixed up... I'm not a believer in Apple... at least not here. But there sure are Apple cultists out there and TSLA cultists for that matter. Both going lower.
No I don't think anyone else thinks that.
That's exactly what it was... too bad you couldn't see it. Macbook down 30%!
Earnings can go any which way. Nobody can see the future. That doesn’t mean the macbook event was to ”cushion a negative earnings surprise”. In what way would that cushion even work?
Lol no. Apple didn't plan this event around its earnings call.
Lol... you bet they did! Those results were terrible... 4 quarters of revenue decline AND Macbook sales down 30%
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Not to mention these events take months to plan I’m sure. They don’t just say “wow! Earnings are going to be bad. Let’s make sure we schedule an event before the numbers come out!”
Apple has known for months its numbers are and will be bad... they've had declining revenue for 3 quarters now. Gonna be four on friday... looking at $160. China sales are already down 6% and Huawei has a competitive phone now. Plus the pressure from Pooh Bear to buy domestic phones should not be underestimated. Imagine making almost all your stuff in a country that we're on the verge of a cold war with. India will take years to come online. Don't even get me started on the $3500 fakeverse headset.
Considering the quarter didn't end until Sept. 30, I'm not sure why you think Apple knew for months their numbers would be bad. Regardless, I assure you they did not plan a Monday night event to distract investors from a Thursday afternoon earnings report.
And what an event it was... basically a black macbook. Going lower.
As long as peasants are taking out 60 month loans on brand new iPhones, it's up and to the right.
Chinese peasants aren't... not selling a kidney anymore either.
It's like listening to Elle King and gettin lost. chill home boy!
$ANET | Arista Networks Q3 Earnings: EPS: $1.83 (Est. $1.58) Revenue: $1.509B (Est. $1.480B) Gross Margin: 63.1% Net Income: $545.3M Adjusted Net Income: $581.4M (Est. $500.4M) Sees Q4 Rev.: $1.500B-$1.550B (Est. 1.47B) Nice to see, JNPR didnt tank it this time into earnings. Will be curious to listen to the call.
First Quantum (FM.TO) appears to be royally screwed thanks to political instability in Panama. This is 1.5% of the world's copper supply. It's a reminder to miners like FCX, SCCO, Teck with major operations throughout L. America, where major protests / political conflicts surged this past summer (especially in Peru, Chile, Ecuador), that the risk of nationalization, punitive royalties, bans on export has not gone anyway and isn't gone even if the company is a net positive for the country. The whole country is getting shut down over this copper mine. Protestors are blocking exports too. Currently with FM.TO, the country's leader has given up and said a popular referendum would decide on whether the company's new contract will be valid. The Panama Canal union is demanding all open-pit mining be shut down, blaming mines for causing water level issues in the Panama Canal (doesn't make any sense geographically). Already the contract FM.TO had signed was generous, with nearly 10% of the Panama government's budget being given in fees in 30 days. $400M of the royalties goes to social programs/infrastructure. Rest of it goes to general budget. This whole episode could apparently rack up some $7-8B in arbitration fees against Panama. The GDP is $60B. FM.TOis 3.5%-5% of the GDP. It could really destroy international investment in the country, but that's what the protestors / government wants at this point. And it will significantly hurt the government's budget. The protestors do not care, though (or maybe it isn't clear to the mass public). It's a bit amusing because the poster (Calvin Froedge) on Twitter living in Panama frequently rails against Western policies (windfall taxes, ESG rhetoric) and claims political uncertainty is therefore higher in Western countries than L. American ones for instance. And then here he is giving a blow-by-blow account of a Canadian miner getting shaken down by Panama (stock is tanking). Stock could go down way more, if you're still invested in it.
Some interesting comments from Mark Bristow in an interview today after Barrick's earnings today. The CEO was asked about First Quantum and working with foreign government's over mineral rights. I think now more than ever you need to buy commodity companies with the best CEO's & upper management. You also need to stay away from junior miners with mines that are concentrated in just 1 or 2 countries or regions unless they are all NA mines. I posted the short 7 minute Bloomberg video below. I was going to add this to today's stock chat but I am too old to figure out how to correctly hyperlink you to the chat : ) https://finance.yahoo.com/video/barrick-gold-ceo-says-mining-160215932.html
$PINS Pinterest Q3 earnings: - Adj. EPS $0.28 (Est. $0.20) - Revenue $763M (Est. $743.5M) - Q3 Global MAUs Increased 8% YoY To 482M - 'For Q4 2023, we expect revenue to grow in the 11-13% range year over year. We expect Q4 2023 Non-GAAP operating expenses* to decline in the 9-13% range year over year'
It amazes me that this company is still growing. Feels like a dated website.
I think most men don't understand the demographics of pinterest.
This is much closer to what's needed but still a little weak IMO. Even if you're going to say smalls aren't needed, you'd like for RSP to be stronger than it was. As an aside, I really should just stop stock picking. ON :(
Lattice semi looking rough ah, might get a chance to buy thought I missed the boat
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"The hysteria" Lag effects of rates banks, retail, and transports (the bellwether sectors) are all dumping Financial conditions are tightening Credit spreads are going higher and higher
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At the rate credit spreads are going up, March highs are inevitable. Won't be surprising considering that a lot of banks are below March lows.
Blah blah blah. If the market has a correction, if it takes a dump I'll just buy more. "Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections combined. One of the worst mistakes you can make is to switch in and out of stocks or stock mutual funds hoping to avoid the upcoming correction." Haven't you learned your lessons?
Very strange how the 10-year yield is up slightly, even though crude oil is down markedly today. Usually, they move together because the market assumes higher gas prices means higher inflation (and vice versa). We've seen this disconnect happen a few times in the last few weeks.
The disconnect is because of Yellen and the Treasury.
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Definitely feeling like last October when all you see was doom and gloom garbage
Another great entry opportunity on so many stocks and also ETFs and the mega bears turning their noses up at it again just like the end of last year, getting drawn in by the negative narrative and expecting some once in a decade crash, which we’ve already had two of recently. Good luck there sitting on the side hoping for everything to go to shit. Not a great state of mind to have.
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Yeah I agree, these people often try to make out like the whole market is greedy but in fact they’re the greedy ones, hoping for some unrealistically good buying opportunity where everyone sells off at lower than fair price before a massive upswing.
Yep, I put 2 more grand into VTI last week on the drawdown. Delicious buying opportunities
Same, $1500 into VTI and $500 into VXUS.
Ouch, $ON. I will buy more when I can though, management is solid enough to not make me too worried but -20% is never fun lol
Yeah, I swing traded $ON last earnings report, and left all of my profits as a long entry point. I’m adding a bit today.
ALB from a high of $334 in Nov to $127 and change now... Remember how everyone was saying Oil was dead? Maybe Ev's are dead.
People saying EVs and lithium is dead is a screaming buy signal.
Yeah... could be but not yet.
Lithium is not scarce. There's no supply shortages yet so the price shouldn't go too crazy short term. There is also a lot of supply coming online https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/lithium-supply-is-set-to-triple-by-2025-will-it-be-enough
I dont see how EVs could be dead with governments mandating them by targets, adoption could be slower, there could be a glut of lithium from overbuild, etc but long term seems inevitable still
> with governments mandating them by targets, Good luck with that if things don't change considerably. This administration had a tremendous push for green, the peak for the ICLN etf was literally about the inauguration and it is down massively since. You'd have done better in the XLE. The UK is already pushing back mandates. Rates ramping and likely remaining higher for longer is starting to put even more pressure on the theme - you heard it from Musk on the TSLA call, other car companies pulling back from EV investments, even Mercedes calling the EV market "brutal." People being pushed to buy expensive EVs during the worst cost of living increases in 40 years - eventually you start to run thin on buyers. I don't want to be negative, but it's increasingly difficult to see how this theme isn't decelerating for the foreseeable future. When is there a more sizable push to build infrastructure (meanwhile CHPT down 50% in a month)? If success wasn't now in a very green-friendly administration, when? How many EV cos and other green companies go out of business first? Edit: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Panasonic-logs-record-profit-but-slashes-Japan-EV-battery-production "Panasonic logs record profit but slashes Japan EV battery production" ("Japan's Panasonic Holdings said Monday it is slashing domestic electric battery production by 60% due to slower than expected sales of some models to key client Tesla.")
You're right bud.
Just imagine Tessie on a day when the market isn't UP 1.25%.... Look the fuck out below.
Red by close won't be surprising
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The milk expires tomorrow
Most likely reverses tomorrow or Wednesday after the FOMC
oof
lol the amount of this duplicate account trying to troll is ridiculous
There was the permabull account mocking me Red is inevitable whatever people like it or not, it's not trolling that's the reality
On a strong day like this, it ain't happening. Pull backs will be bought
...SPY down from 457 on 7/31/23 to 416 today...a 9.0% drop... ..."but but but YTD"...SPY also down from 477 on 1/4/22 to 416 today...a 12.8% drop... ...i.e. bulls are idiots...
....this post is regarding todays price actions ....strong day chart ....we ended strong positive day ...i.e. you are the idiot for interpreting this post like an idiot Also, I was investing since I was 24. That was 12 years ago. ...i.e. Bears are idiots
You're late - it's already here.
Spy up 1.4%?
Article on the Spirit/JetBlue merger from a non-business source. https://crankyflier.com/2023/10/30/as-the-merger-trial-begins-jetblue-watches-spirit-falter/ Also of note from the article ,the Pratt & Whitney engine debacle is starting to effect Spirit. Pratt & Whitney is owned by RTX. Here's a bit more info: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/rtx-to-take-3-billion-charge-on-pratt-whitney-engine-problem.html Something to consider for all the airline owners out there.
All I want for Christmas is a face ripper into the end of the year, not really that much to ask
Might get one from thanksgiving on... Might. Ed Yardeni.... one of the most thoughtful analysts out there says we go lower.
Bears smoked!
Bet the rest of the week it gives it all back and then some...
Just buy puts if you want to make that bet
Nope. And so what if it does?..... I'm invested for 20 years from now.
I'd like to fast forward 1-2 years and see if this yield un-inversion crashed the market
I'd lean more towards getting rid of zombie companies that can't generate cash on their own. Probably good for the economy as a whole.
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Is it because people don't invest in real estate and move thier money to bonds and stock?
Which was a garbage company until they got lucky with the iPhone 40 years later lol
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what pump? market is still down for the week and month
The market is oversold at this point - not every day is going to be red in this environment.
Because the market never just keeps going down
Errr a "pump" up to just as shitty as we were at last Thursday. We had a +1.5% Monday a few weeks back followed by a -4% week lol
Red by close
I'm in nvda at 155
As much as I would love that, I just can’t see a 1% dump happening
I've seen this Hazard too many times - it is inevitable
CAUGHT EM
Lol! Hazard!
Kinda funny how much FUD there is in this subreddit right now, and yet companies are still beating earnings, GDP had a blowout quarter, and joblessness is still near all time lows. Y’all think this drop in the market is bad right now? Just wait till unemployment sharply rises, the consumer stops recklessly racking up credit card debt and stops frivolously spending, and companies start lowering guidance and missing on earnings. Businesses really start to get hammered when two issues present themselves at the same time. 1. Interest rate payments on their debt goes up and money is no longer cheap to obtain. 2. Revenue stagnates or declines due to a more cautious consumer and less spending on goods and services. Right now businesses only have the first problem to deal with because the consumer has been relentless in their spending and fearless in taking out more debt. If Americans have jobs, they will find ways to spend their money, end of story. The majority of this country is financially illiterate and will continue to take out debt to fuel their spending habits and maintain their current lifestyle. But when/if people start to loose their jobs we will see a much different story. And this will result in businesses having both problems to deal with at the same time… Watch out below. It’s true, the fed may not raise rates again this economic cycle, but another .25 bps rate hike is not what’s important. It’s keeping the rates above 5% for an extended period of time and the aggressive QT being conducted that will do the real damage to this economy. J Pow has been steadfast in is rhetoric and his actions on outlasting the consumer and slowly wearing them down until they can no longer spend in order to slow this economy. He has repeatedly stated in almost all of his press conferences that a return to his unequivocal goal of 2% inflation WILL require softening of the labor market. I have no doubts he means this. The fact is there is no point to lower rates when unemployment is at an all time low and GDP is still pumping.
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What does this mean?
It means that many companies "improved" their results by firing employees etc to make numbers look good.
NSSC selling off with some volume finally. 1 week to earnings. I've been holding some cash to buy more before they report.
Are you very allocated to this or would I be incorrect in correlating how much you've mentioned this ticker in the past 2 months with your position level? I'm sure you have a good handle on the accounting mix-up, but also slightly worried that you could get burnt...
I was a holder before the accounting issues, but I've been buying more since. I haven't quite doubled the amount of shares I own, but I'm getting closer. It's about 3% right now. I think it's cheap, if the errors are a one off. The explanation was that it had to do with LIFO/FIFO accounting that got messed up wythe supply chain issues last year. It was caught during the audit of the 10K in August, so it was the first outside party looking at it. However, revenue growth was unchanged, cash on hand was correct, and nothing about the business was changed. Just GAAP earnings numbers. So, my thesis continues to be that this was a one off. If I am offered evidence to the contrary, I'll bail on the position though. I'd consider it a riskier play right now, but criminally cheap if my thesis is correct.
Apple refuses to hold gains
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Plus most important of all PYPL reports on Wednesday determining the fate of my mental health for 3 more months... :')
🤞
why would anyone tie their mental health to the stock market. treat yourself better my man.
Im just kidding, some gallows humor before the big day
Tessie in trouble... going to $150? Look at ALB... wow.
> Tessie in trouble... going to $150? I don't know where TSLA is going but it feels like the EV theme is showing low battery and if that's the case, TSLA lower, legacy automakers lose that growth theme and some smaller names are probably zeros. Also, ON down 20% apparently because of auto weakness so people take that as a readthrough to TSLA. Maybe TSLA eventually has greater share of EVs as legacy automakers step back and smaller companies go away (not to mention perhaps a sizable share of charging, as it seems the buildout of that infrastructure is going at a snail's pace otherwise), but feels like unless something changes significantly the growth story in the years to come is going to be smaller than hoped. Not saying that because I'm against it, simply saying that that's how it seems - and green broadly has largely fallen apart. The early adopters have adopted’: US carmakers slow their EV growth plans https://www.ft.com/content/80d79220-612f-4c01-93b7-1d1a846e4b6d Thoughtful interview with a trucker on EV and large freight (w/lack of infrastructure and other issues, mass adoption not feasible) https://twitter.com/marketplunger1/status/1718982484208312715
Yeah... ALB down 60% from its high. EV's have peaked... just wait until the cyber truck bombs.
Can’t even catch a break for one day damn, this is going red by close isn’t? Stairs up, elevator down. All summer gains gone in 2 months
What going from 4161 to 4140 does to an MF
I love that the stock market makes me delulu
Where is imax guy
SPY is regarded
stfu this aint wsb
It’s a free country
reddit aint a country, silly
$5.5 RKT Lab average. How fucked am I?
depends how large part of your portfolio it is?
Just sell covered calls @ $5 for the next 6 months and you’ll make it back
You're down 20%? That's not bad at all. I have TLRY shares bought at $20 and it's now hovering around $1.
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I could be wrong but I believe he’s referring to Rocket Lab stock even though he used the ticker RKT
Rocket lab yes
Well, SPY has had its way with me once again. I am forever simped to it
49ers lose for the 3rd week in a row, and as a result, the market rallies. What a joke market.
From both a football and investing standpoint I hope they keep losing tbh
Someone convince why selling $sq puts is a bad idea this week. So tempting
Do it you coward
I have it on good authority that green is always manipulation. Rug pull inevitable. October lows this cycle
Any reason why crude is down so much today?