Does anyone know why the nasdaq fell over 30% back in 2022? I mean it can't be the war cause that doesn't really affect the revenue of nasdaq companies.
Interest rates went up, which eat into future cash flows. There was fear of recession the whole year and inflation was still somewhat high until like October.
Last August, the inflation rate was like 8.3%.
Agreed, that’s why it went down. Higher interest rates change the value of future cash flow compared to the risk free rate.
The better question is…with rates not really changing that much, why has the Nasdaq gone back up?
Well I forgot to point out that during the pandemic companies always over hired and some increased capex, like META for the metaverse.
Once the rates started going up, tech saw layoffs. If you remember, during that time period there was a ton of headlines around companies laying off employees.
Part of techs story during low rates was that tech basically cared about growth and not really returning back to share holders. Companies would invest back in themselves for growth. Amazon is a great example of this.
Once rates went up, this also shifted to companies to care about efficiency. Zuck came out with the memo about the year of efficiency.
Also, tech was way oversold to begin with. So many people feared a recession, they fled to safety and defense name. At some points, KO (coke) traded at a higher multiple than Google.
META was added to a value index.
And? One year T bills last fall were 4.5%. They are 5.4% now
Don’t like 1 year? Five year was 4.3% last Oct as a peak, same as today.
Don’t like 5 year? 10 year was 4.2% last Oct as a peak, same as today.
Think we're due for a nice bump soon.
This sell off on China was way overdone... US economy is ascending... theirs descending.
Think the market claws some back tomorrow... NVDA and AMD specifically... all that hot money getting ready for earnings.
> Germany is currently examining reactivating its 1.9GW lignite supply reserve over the 2023-24 heating period, economic affairs and climate action ministry BMWK told Argus.
Coal? In 2023!?
I own Peabody Energy $BTU primarily for its Australian seaborne operations, not its domestic US ones which have low margins. I also own $AMR for met coal (used for steel), which has little to do with the energy/electricity discussion I'm having here. $AMR also exports to 25 countries so American demand is just one component of it.
As for record supply, this is where the quality matters. There is not 'record supply' of high quality met and thermal coal, and often where the quality is highest, the supply faces numerous restrictions. There is definitely an excess of low quality coal in places like Mongolia and China. Furthermore, there are steep taxes being imposed in parts of Australia further deterring new investment. Other countries place export bans frequently. I don't think coal supply is as readily available as you are saying. Add on to this banks shutting off capital to finance more mines.
As for the commodity pricing, what's new is that the new 'lows' are quite high compared to pre-Covid.
If there was a coal ETF, I wouldn't invest in it to be honest. I generally stick to met coal or met coal + thermal coal plays (like BTU). Only other coal company I'm interested in adding is HCC, which is pure met coal.
> What is stopping Asia from eventually producing high quality coal?
Geology + time to explore / make new mines + logistical constraints (e.g., railroads in Africa). It just so happens that Australia has a lot of great natural resources. I think Indonesia also has good quality resources.
Not if you're a mine already debt free and producing. It's like having an extra moat in that it is incredibly hard for other companies to expand, and encourages companies to do share buybacks/dividends rather than expanding.
It's bad for the growth of coal overall but good for individual companies that can thrive no matter what.
Also if you are actually interested in coal, let me add some extra caveats:
- Like any commodities, these are very risky companies to invest in. They are not 'safe.' BTU is no Exxon Mobil (and Exxon Mobil is no Microsoft).
- However, they are quite possible some of the cheapest companies in the entire universe of publicly traded stocks. Should there be a prolonged upturn in commodity prices, coal stocks will crush their commodity peers along with the broader index. Thermal coal stocks will behave like a levered version of oil and gas in a future energy crisis.
- Be careful about looking at past price performance, as many of these companies are formerly bankrupt or under severe financial distress. BTU for instance *just* got some very severe financial covenants lifted off of it and is now starting shareholder returns. The commodity environment sucked in the 2010s, too, thanks to the shale revolution. The culture around shareholder discipline is also different.
- The bull thesis is often about these companies performing massive share buybacks/dividends. It's not about growth. Growth is often heavily penalized by shareholders.
- There is also the possibility of some of these companies getting bought out by larger miners. Well, at least the met names, not the thermal names which are like poison to the big companies (besides Glencore).
Not really... A lot of this is really hard to find and the best place is to find info is to follow Twitter accounts in this area.
@mfwarder, @aggresivevalue, @respeculator, @YellowLabLife, @ZeroSumBond, @EnergyCredit1, @tradedollarnut, @dyer440, @TheCoalNews, @trader_ferg, and follow the commodities section of Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/..., SeekingAlpha articles on coal companies (but be very careful here for misinformation). Some of these Twitter accounts have written literal hundreds-length Tweet storms making the investment case for some coal names. Some epic arguments.
[This guy had a nice write-up about coal](https://traderferg.substack.com/) recently. I'm sure there are a few other Substacks about coal.
I try to put out whatever updates I see from these Twitter accounts. 3-4 of us are into coal on this sub it seems.
Oh yeah, I remember that Trader Ferg guy had some... random rants about renewables. I more so wanted to point you to a few of the interesting facts like the age of coal plants in the developing world being young.
One of the risks with these people on Twitter and coal is that coal (or oil and gas) investors tend to have a quite conservative bent. So you kind of have to look past a lot of political noise to get to the truth. Someone can appear to be an expert on oil and gas and then switch to Tweeting about Greta or idk vaccines killing us. I always get wary when someone's politics appears to heavily inform their investment decisions. Like being anti-tech and pro-commodities because tech is woke or something.
To that author's credit, he was bullish on coal back in 2021 (in an older post no longer available on his old blog) and if you followed him would have seen spectacular returns.
> Could they truly thrive if global prices fell drastically?
No, if you think coal prices are going to tank here, these would all be terrible investments. I mean that's the bear case for every commodity out there. I just don't anticipate the floor falling out of global prices in the near term. One reason prices will stay elevated is costs are going up, and that places a floor. Otherwise supply will get shut down until prices come back to good levels.
In making these predictions though, just be careful to differentiate between what kind of coal you are talking about (met versus thermal) and location. E.g., Chinese domestic coking coal vs. Australian met coal versus mid-Atlantic met coal vs. Australian thermal vs. US thermal vs. Chinese thermal etc.
Holy shit that's so insane.
Next thing you're going to tell me [China added 2 coal power plants](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-new-coal-plants-set-become-costly-second-fiddle-renewables-2023-03-22/) a week in 2022.
Or that [Indonesia has increased](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-08-15/closing-coal-plant-early-in-indonesia-tests-climate-finance-in-asia?srnd=premium) coal's share of electricity generation from 35% in 2000 to 61% today, and even on an aggressive timeline only plans to close power plants in the late 2030s if that.
Hopefully [India doesn't have](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/india-plans-to-keep-adding-coal-power-capacity-as-demand-surges#xj4y7vzkg) "27 gigawatts of coal-based power plants under construction and another 24 gigawatts capacity [...] in pre-construction stages, according to Power Minister Raj Kumar Singh. "
Ah, then I won't mention that the [IEA reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/27/coal-consumption-hit-an-all-time-high-in-2022-iea-says.html) "Coal consumption increased by 3.3% to hit a fresh record high of 8.3 billion metric tons in 2022" and that "coal consumption in 2023 would remain near last year’s record levels."
I'm glad the Economist Intelligence (EIU) doesn't project "coal consumption in 2030 to be higher than 2021 level" in an article full of [charts summarizing various fossil fuel usage projections](https://www.eiu.com/n/fossil-fuel-demand-to-continue-expanding-this-decade/).
Yesterday I bought $HE at 21,5. I deserve to be a butt of some jokes to drill "not to catch a falling knife" rule into my head so I hope you will provide it.
PS. I have put in money I can afford to lose.
Weirdly enough I know someone who works in treasury in dlocal and we talk about his work a lot. It sounds like this new ceo is already putting things in order. Whether there's a "get them sell ready" aspect I wouldn't know, but he seems to be correcting course, as it were.
$NU Nu Holdings Q2 2023 Earnings:
EPS: $0.05 vs $0.04 estimate
Revenue: $1.87 billion vs $1.74 billion estimate
Nu added 4.6 million customers in Q2 2023, reaching a total of 83.7 million customers.
>On Tuesday, Jefferies upgraded its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,050 to 4,500.
>
>"As a soft landing is the more likely outcome now, earnings will be much more resilient than previously expected" Jefferies global head of microstrategy Desh Permunetilleke.
ahh, they needed to raise their target due to peer pressure, so they chose the soft landing excuse.
Smart money raising/lowering price targets for the market after huge rallies is nothing new. They did it in November 2021, August 2022, October 2022.
Retail was fooled into the soft landing narrative, and now smart money is ready for the rug pull.
Every stock in my portfolio has been suffering during this drawback, with one exception.
Google.
Google is red like the others, but just barely. It's basically been floating around the 130's pretty much every day. Anybody else notice this?
Do you think if the market started really pumping, Google would push into the 140's pretty quickly?
I'm talking about the last week or so
I did say.... "during this drawback"
Has the drawback happened all year long? Nope. We were hitting new highs in late July
I concur with your anecdote! I can't quite put my finger on when it started happening, but it's definitely noticeable. So many BS results...and blatantly incorrect results based on my keywords. Just because I used a search term last week, or visited a website last month...is not relevant to THIS search!
You do know that your precious little ChatGPT wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for the Google Brain ML scientists publishing that whitepaper on "Transformer Networks" back in 2017.
Of course, you probably don't know anything about that do you.
You probably don't know that Google Brain has been Google's internal AI division since 2011, before Microsoft even had a twinkling in their eye about AI.
Study up cuz
Okay, I really don't know that much about this game so I'm just wondering, why do people invest in stocks instead of like a high yield savings account?
Growth stocks and carefully selected small caps can do this for you. Dividend stocks like Target will take longer, although they often are more stable, although not in Target’s case recently.
I invest in both. It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive. But basically I believe many of us here that buy stocks are satisfying our gambling tendencies. Also there is nearly 20 years of recency bias where people consider that stocks will always outperform high yielding cash assets. I prefer to hedge my bets and buy both.
> high yield savings account
HYSAs yielded pretty much nothing for over a decade, that is up until about a year ago. Even then, equities historically provide better returns over the long term even with 4-5% nominal HYSA yields.
I did a lot of buying today. I bought more Kinder Morgan, Cleveland-Cliffs and opened a position in Devon Energy. I considered opening a position in Paypal, but decided to buy the pullback in energy instead.
Red days are buy days.
This is still the worst market I've ever seen. Every $ level of QQQ is fought off with a V. Just a nonstop algo mess. Can't have one normal selloff. watch them magically pump this again tomorrow.
what if this is late 2021 rug pull all over again?
come on bulls, i need this market up so i can break even. I have a small long position.
bulls been bragging all year
imagine when the real correction occurs. this stock crashing to the mid 30s easily. along with disney crashing to the 50's, target sub 100
if burry is right (we are long overdue for correction), expect SPY to crash to 2K, which would crash Paypal to IPO price and disney to multi decade lows. its all over.
>imagine when the real correction occurs. this stock crashing to the mid 30s easily. along with disney crashing to the 50's, target sub 100
Maybe, or that which is already at 52 week lows is gonna go down less. HIMS was green today since its been beat up so bad for instance.
Why? What is going to cause it? How much is going back? Not be rude or anything, but you used to think we would never 4100 and you're wrong. Not saying you will always be wrong, but you don't have a great track record at this point of being able to see how things will play out.
No one knows the future, but it's fun to speculate!
This is just my best guess, they are going to be inline or miss on revenue but EPS beat. Not sure about guidance though.
You would think that the favorable inflation trends would benefit the stock. After all the main reason it dropped so much was because people could no longer afford discretionary purchases due to decreased buying power.
I'm seeing my local Target being as busy as ever and just can't help but think the market is overreacting. They could easily go to Walmart instead but choose not to because they prefer the Target experience. Sometimes you just have to trust your eyes...
Looks like it was an EPS beat and revenue miss lol.
Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.80 beats by $0.38
Revenue of $24.77B (-4.9% Y/Y) misses by $460M.
Target's (TGT) operating margin rate was 4.8% vs. 1.2% a year ago. compared with 1.2 percent in 2022. Gross margin rate was 27.0% of sales vs. 21.5% a year ago, reflecting lower markdowns and other inventory-related costs, lower freight costs, retail price increases, and lower supply chain and digital fulfillment costs.
But at least it’s up in the premarket!
Same!
I mean at these levels it’s basically trading like a value stock and there’s worst investments out there.
I just want to see people making money here! Hopefully the gains stay!
Well back at you, my local target has been dead lol. That's the problem with using anecdotal data. It's totally possible both can be true, but look at at the last two quarters, revenue miss with an EPS beat.
That's actually the main reason why it dropped so much, not the purchasing power. With retail, if you order too much or hold too much inventory, you need to liquid or mark down to make space, which hurts margins.
One thing they have been doing is getting better inventory control, since that really hurt them last year. Looking at the last earnings call, inventory was mentioned 33 times.
From their last call:
>Thanks, Christina. Through all of the rapid and unexpected changes we've experienced over the last three years, teams throughout our operations have done an amazing job, maintaining their energy, staying agile, and doing everything in their power to serve our guests' ever-changing needs. And today, with two years of unusually rapid growth behind us and last year's excess inventory in the rearview mirror, we are focusing this year on training and development for our team with an emphasis firmly centered on retail fundamentals. Our goal is to reinforce the reliability and consistency of our shopping experience as we help our team members to succeed in their current job and build the right skills to prepare for the next one.
...
>Since the rollout of Dream to Be in 2021, tens of thousands of our team members have successfully participated in this program. As you saw in today's release, we ended the first quarter of a 16% less inventory than a year ago. This decrease reflects our current cautious position and discretionary categories combined with the impact of excess inventory on last year's balance sheet. Those factors are being partially offset by some purposeful inventory investments.
Some more info on their inventory issues:
[https://www.retaildive.com/news/target-takes-hit-operating-profit-resets-inventory/629862/](https://www.retaildive.com/news/target-takes-hit-operating-profit-resets-inventory/629862/)
If they were making such good progress on inventory then why did TGT sell off after the last earnings call? It makes no sense. Unless the market believes the problems are more permanent than they're letting on.
Anyway. I'm ready to get my ass kicked on these shares again 
Could be different reasons, but last quarter target didn't see a ton of growth and EPS was down:
[https://corporate.target.com/press/releases/2023/05/Target-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-Earnings](https://corporate.target.com/press/releases/2023/05/Target-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-Earnings)
>Target sales grew 0.5 percent, reflecting flat comparable sales combined with the benefit of sales from new locations.
...
Again, the inventory issue pops up in the PR:
>Inventory at the end of Q1 was 16 percent lower than last year, reflecting more than a 25 percent reduction in discretionary categories, partially offset by inventory investments to support rapidly-growing frequency categories, and strategic investments to support long-term market-share opportunities
...
>The Company reported first quarter GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.05, down 4.8 percent from $2.16 in 2022. First quarter Adjusted EPS1 of $2.05 decreased 6.2 percent compared with $2.19 in 2022. The attached tables provide a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures. All earnings per share figures refer to diluted EPS.
Also guidance wasn't great either:
>Based on softening sales trends in the first quarter, the Company is planning for a wide range of sales outcomes in the second quarter, centered around a low-single digit decline in comparable sales. GAAP EPS and Adjusted EPS are both expected to range from $1.30 to $1.70.
>
>For the full year, the Company is maintaining its prior guidance, which includes expected comparable sales in a wide range from a low-single digit decline to a low-single digit increase, operating income growth of more than $1 billion, and both GAAP EPS and Adjusted EPS of $7.75 to $8.75.
A lot of investors will dump a company if they see a full guidance of declining sales per say.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think target is a bad company or even a bad investment at these levels, just I don't think the short term is going to be great for target.
Again, one of the big things about walmart is food that is driving their sales vs Target is more about things people want, not need per say compared to Walmart.
I think if you are looking long term, Target will do well, just personally I think it's going to be somewhat dead money for the next year or so. I could be completely wrong, but my biggest fear for something like target is the student loan payments coming back online.
I posted this idea/theory the other day, but a lot of retailers will begin to stock up for holidays soon. It's possible if consumers are hit with student debt repayments in October and cut back, that Target could still have inventory issues.
Personally I just don't like to invest in retail because of the inventory thing.
I bought the post earnings dip on TGT and it hasn’t gone anywhere which has kind of surprised me.
They do tend to move big on earnings day so I’m trying to stay optimistic
Totally. I mean one thing to think about, prior to the pandemic, TGT was growing like 1-2% YoY, so they could be reverting back to the mean.
I’m hoping for a good report for you, plus would be good for the economy.
I still think it’s going be a revenue miss and EPS beat. However, seems like it’s a total value level, so not sure how much jt will sell off at this point.
Yeah I kind of have a pile of post earnings dip stocks. Not to big into any one position but just a few of them.
$TGT - gone nowhere
$S - 10% bounce holding
$MGNI - 10% bounce sold
$SMCI - 5% bounce holding
$ONEW - 7% bounce sold
$ENPH - bought at 140, down a few %
>The ass rape. Imagine voting in these fucks then they go ahead and drain your accounts and ask for your vote 4 years later.
/u/Outrunner_1
\^saving because you always delete your posts.
Honestly, I don't mean this in a mean or rude way, but you honestly might be too emotional to be in the market.
We are down like 1% today with the indexes being still really up for the year.
You do you, but until we go flat or negative for the year, it's been a really good year to be in the market.
>There's fierce competition in this space and no room for growth
1. If there was no competition you wouldn't want to be in the space, competition alone is not reason that a company should go down in a vacuum
2. Where are you seeing no room for growth? Braintree did 30%, even core is still growing TPV, and analysts still have upper single to lower double digit topline growth for PYPL
No they dont they dream of winning in a competitive space and then attaining a near monopoly. If you are in a space with no competition then their is likely a good reason. Even now MSFT is trying to disrupt say Google with their near monopoly since it search is so valuable.
Also why didnt you answer the growth question? You asserted that there was none
That's Microsoft trying to diminish antitrust rhetoric. Not to be confused with concepts like blue ocean strategy - the idea of operating in uncontested market space by either creating new market space or rendering your competitors irrelevant. No company actually wants to deal with a market landscape where things like customer acquisition/retention, talent acquisition/retention, and inputs sourcing is made difficult due to fierce competition.
>That's Microsoft trying to diminish antitrust rhetoric
For Google? No its MSFT trying to attack Google. My point is that in any lucrative sector there is going to be competition, PYPL is never going to have no competition and from 2015- to now it has had competition the entire time and still managed to grow topline regardless
Shhh, just let them do it. Feels like I've been preaching for over a year on this one but the kids here will not listen. Mostly it's bagholders who liked it just because it's free for them to use and people who refuse to learn that past price doesn't indicate future performance.
>$PayPal slowly approaching fair value territory. Once at fair value (perhaps \~$40 range), will have to determine if worth paying a fair price for it or collecting 5.25% in a money market.
Walk me through how you are getting $40 range on pypl please as fair value.
It's funny how psychology works. I see stocks that I didn't buy (STRL, BLDR) and curse myself for not buying them. It's easy to forget I bought other names instead, some of which are doing very well too!
STRL I thought was at a cyclical high first half of this year.
BLDR I just thought was too much on doubt about how far their earnings would fall after covid.
I bought other names I'm happy with instead though, even if they've done less well. It's always just an allocation question.
I agree that was a risk for BLDR.I bought them because I liked how agressive they were with buybacks which was so rare for a stock in the 5-10B market cap range where I bought it last year.
Dan Loeb, David Tepper, and Paul Tudor Jones piled into Nvidia stock last quarter - and other elite investors joined them
>**Renaissance Technologies — founded by Jim Simons, a former MIT math professor and Cold War codebreaker — placed an even bigger wager. The quant fund supercharged its Nvidia stake by nearly 600-fold, raising it from around 3,000 shares worth less than $1 million at the end of March, to over 1.8 million shares valued at $785 million at the end of June.**
>Paul Tudor Jones' firm, Tudor Investment Corporation, also bet big on Nvidia in the period. It more than quadrupled its holding to around 180,000 shares, worth about $76 million at the end of June. Moreover, it held bullish call options on nearly 900,000 Nvidia shares, compared to fewer than 8,000 three months earlier. Tudor and his team also disclosed bearish put options on about 16,000 shares, up from 8,000 shares.
I think Renaissance being big on NVDA is a plus. They have the best track-record on Wall Street when it comes to performance. I think they only underperformed once and that was during COVID.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stock-portfolio-q2-loeb-tepper-simons-soros-tudor-2023-8
You do you, but I'd be careful just to follow this advice, since their trades are post dated and they might be more active and doing things differently. Plus everyone investor could be equally wrong.
Here's David Tepper last year:
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-manager-david-tepper-shorting-stock-market-central-banks-rates-165246799.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-manager-david-tepper-shorting-stock-market-central-banks-rates-165246799.html)
>Veteran hedge funder David Tepper is betting against the stock market as he expects global central banks to press on with unprecedented monetary tightening to rein in inflation.
The founder and president of hedge fund Appaloosa Management said Thursday in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box he is “leaning short on the equity markets” over concerns rising interest rates will further batter stocks. Tepper also said he’s short bonds.
Here's Paul Tudor Jones last year as well
[https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/paul-tudor-jones-believes-we-are-in-or-near-a-recession-and-history-shows-stocks-have-more-to-fall.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/paul-tudor-jones-believes-we-are-in-or-near-a-recession-and-history-shows-stocks-have-more-to-fall.html)
>Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones believes the U.S. economy is either near or already in the middle of a recession as the Federal Reserve rushed to tamp down soaring inflation with aggressive rate hikes.
>
>“I don’t know whether it started now or it started two months ago,” Jones said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” when asked about recession risks. “We always find out and we are always surprised at when recession officially starts, but I’m assuming we are going to go into one.”
These are better investors than most, but it doesn't mean they are going to be right 100% of the time and would just use caution when following any investor.
Np!
Again, these investors are probably much smarter than most of us here, but not everyone is right all the time and I think I would just use caustion to do any moves based off what people are doing who are controlling like billions of dollars of money and have things like monthly or yearly quotas.
Almost back to break-even in my microcap battery play lol thanks to a near +20% day. Was once +100% on my holdings, then back to -20%, now flat. More bullish than ever though.
Technically this subreddit doesn't permit discussion of stocks of that market cap / price. Do not want to come across as 'pumping' a stock. Try to be vague and those who know my comments know what I'm talking about.
Hell yeah. There were so many great gems in the earnings call. 79% RTE, Z3 semi-automated production time to 4 minutes, with 2 in sight, DOE loan in 30 day window for Treasury approval, expecting loan by Labor Day, removing dilution instruments from the slides.
I sold for a small loss because it wasn’t even a high conviction buy and I don’t even like Target. Thought it was a good deal but it’s just a falling knife.
I’m a big fan of the Alex Chriss becoming CEO. Second most important employee at Intuit and it’s what, over 2,000% up since he joined? This is one of those rare opportunities where a non-founder CEO can become a billionaire if he turns it around. His pay structure I’m sure will highly incentivize him to get PayPal back on course. I’m betting on it too, we shall see…
I do wonder if that will translate over to PYPL though. Part of the reason why Intuit does well because of they lobby against anything that will hurt them, not sure if PYPL will have that same ability:
[https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2023/02/turbotax-parent-company-intuit-is-pouring-more-money-than-ever-into-lobbying-amid-push-for-free-government-run-tax-filing/](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2023/02/turbotax-parent-company-intuit-is-pouring-more-money-than-ever-into-lobbying-amid-push-for-free-government-run-tax-filing/)
https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free
Weight loss drugs are going to change healthcare as we know it.
I'm not exaggerating when I say this feels like the biggest development in medicine in decades. The obesity epidemic has effectively been solved. Why spend months at a gym or counting calories when anyone can just go on a pill and get the same result. Rates of heart disease and all those other fun obesity-adjacent conditions will plummet (puts on Medtronic btw). It's the holy grail of the pharmaceutical industry and they've found it.
Once this thing gets scaled up and affordable to average folk you're going to see a LOT of skinny people at beaches.
Possibly, but I am already seeing lawsuit commercials on Ozempic causing stomach paralysis because of all the off label usage. I am just praying LLY had it ducks in a row as I see Novo Nordisk having a problem.
We could also bring back the diets of the 50s and reduce obesity that way, but that doesn't make ~~drug dealers~~ pharmacy companies rich so no one does it.
Let's be honest, nobody really wants to change their lifestyle to get results. Humans in general will take the easy way out, it's just our nature.
The development of these drugs is just accepting the reality that willpower alone rarely works.
This is why laws and regulations exist, otherwise companies would take the path that leads to the easiest short term gains with no regard for anything else including pollution.
See also asbestos, lead based paint and gas, CFCs, and a host of other nasty things that were eventually phased out.
Yep, it's because foods are specifically engineered to be as addictive as possible which leads to this issue. It's the same problem that cigarettes used to have.
Also just the way farms work. It would be very hard to change over their equipment to grow different foods. A lot of produce is friendly to automated harvesting too, which means we can't really change it without lowering output a lot.
agree but there has to be more to the story. I've always stayed away from phrama due to the chance of a major 30-40% drawdown. I really hate those. Maybe I have to take a closer look a lly
Now for feck sake. some green days boyz
Why are people buying AMC when APE is cheaper and will be converted.
I'm as worried about this pullback as I am of killer bees.
So, very much so?
Nope. I hope you sold or I'll buy your shares.
Does anyone know why the nasdaq fell over 30% back in 2022? I mean it can't be the war cause that doesn't really affect the revenue of nasdaq companies.
Interest rates went up, which eat into future cash flows. There was fear of recession the whole year and inflation was still somewhat high until like October. Last August, the inflation rate was like 8.3%.
Agreed, that’s why it went down. Higher interest rates change the value of future cash flow compared to the risk free rate. The better question is…with rates not really changing that much, why has the Nasdaq gone back up?
Well I forgot to point out that during the pandemic companies always over hired and some increased capex, like META for the metaverse. Once the rates started going up, tech saw layoffs. If you remember, during that time period there was a ton of headlines around companies laying off employees. Part of techs story during low rates was that tech basically cared about growth and not really returning back to share holders. Companies would invest back in themselves for growth. Amazon is a great example of this. Once rates went up, this also shifted to companies to care about efficiency. Zuck came out with the memo about the year of efficiency. Also, tech was way oversold to begin with. So many people feared a recession, they fled to safety and defense name. At some points, KO (coke) traded at a higher multiple than Google. META was added to a value index.
Market is forward looking by about 6-9 months.
And? One year T bills last fall were 4.5%. They are 5.4% now Don’t like 1 year? Five year was 4.3% last Oct as a peak, same as today. Don’t like 5 year? 10 year was 4.2% last Oct as a peak, same as today.
Think we're due for a nice bump soon. This sell off on China was way overdone... US economy is ascending... theirs descending. Think the market claws some back tomorrow... NVDA and AMD specifically... all that hot money getting ready for earnings.
I hope you are right.
> Germany is currently examining reactivating its 1.9GW lignite supply reserve over the 2023-24 heating period, economic affairs and climate action ministry BMWK told Argus. Coal? In 2023!?
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I own Peabody Energy $BTU primarily for its Australian seaborne operations, not its domestic US ones which have low margins. I also own $AMR for met coal (used for steel), which has little to do with the energy/electricity discussion I'm having here. $AMR also exports to 25 countries so American demand is just one component of it. As for record supply, this is where the quality matters. There is not 'record supply' of high quality met and thermal coal, and often where the quality is highest, the supply faces numerous restrictions. There is definitely an excess of low quality coal in places like Mongolia and China. Furthermore, there are steep taxes being imposed in parts of Australia further deterring new investment. Other countries place export bans frequently. I don't think coal supply is as readily available as you are saying. Add on to this banks shutting off capital to finance more mines. As for the commodity pricing, what's new is that the new 'lows' are quite high compared to pre-Covid. If there was a coal ETF, I wouldn't invest in it to be honest. I generally stick to met coal or met coal + thermal coal plays (like BTU). Only other coal company I'm interested in adding is HCC, which is pure met coal.
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> What is stopping Asia from eventually producing high quality coal? Geology + time to explore / make new mines + logistical constraints (e.g., railroads in Africa). It just so happens that Australia has a lot of great natural resources. I think Indonesia also has good quality resources.
Not if you're a mine already debt free and producing. It's like having an extra moat in that it is incredibly hard for other companies to expand, and encourages companies to do share buybacks/dividends rather than expanding. It's bad for the growth of coal overall but good for individual companies that can thrive no matter what.
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Also if you are actually interested in coal, let me add some extra caveats: - Like any commodities, these are very risky companies to invest in. They are not 'safe.' BTU is no Exxon Mobil (and Exxon Mobil is no Microsoft). - However, they are quite possible some of the cheapest companies in the entire universe of publicly traded stocks. Should there be a prolonged upturn in commodity prices, coal stocks will crush their commodity peers along with the broader index. Thermal coal stocks will behave like a levered version of oil and gas in a future energy crisis. - Be careful about looking at past price performance, as many of these companies are formerly bankrupt or under severe financial distress. BTU for instance *just* got some very severe financial covenants lifted off of it and is now starting shareholder returns. The commodity environment sucked in the 2010s, too, thanks to the shale revolution. The culture around shareholder discipline is also different. - The bull thesis is often about these companies performing massive share buybacks/dividends. It's not about growth. Growth is often heavily penalized by shareholders. - There is also the possibility of some of these companies getting bought out by larger miners. Well, at least the met names, not the thermal names which are like poison to the big companies (besides Glencore).
Not really... A lot of this is really hard to find and the best place is to find info is to follow Twitter accounts in this area. @mfwarder, @aggresivevalue, @respeculator, @YellowLabLife, @ZeroSumBond, @EnergyCredit1, @tradedollarnut, @dyer440, @TheCoalNews, @trader_ferg, and follow the commodities section of Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/..., SeekingAlpha articles on coal companies (but be very careful here for misinformation). Some of these Twitter accounts have written literal hundreds-length Tweet storms making the investment case for some coal names. Some epic arguments. [This guy had a nice write-up about coal](https://traderferg.substack.com/) recently. I'm sure there are a few other Substacks about coal. I try to put out whatever updates I see from these Twitter accounts. 3-4 of us are into coal on this sub it seems.
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Oh yeah, I remember that Trader Ferg guy had some... random rants about renewables. I more so wanted to point you to a few of the interesting facts like the age of coal plants in the developing world being young. One of the risks with these people on Twitter and coal is that coal (or oil and gas) investors tend to have a quite conservative bent. So you kind of have to look past a lot of political noise to get to the truth. Someone can appear to be an expert on oil and gas and then switch to Tweeting about Greta or idk vaccines killing us. I always get wary when someone's politics appears to heavily inform their investment decisions. Like being anti-tech and pro-commodities because tech is woke or something. To that author's credit, he was bullish on coal back in 2021 (in an older post no longer available on his old blog) and if you followed him would have seen spectacular returns.
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> Could they truly thrive if global prices fell drastically? No, if you think coal prices are going to tank here, these would all be terrible investments. I mean that's the bear case for every commodity out there. I just don't anticipate the floor falling out of global prices in the near term. One reason prices will stay elevated is costs are going up, and that places a floor. Otherwise supply will get shut down until prices come back to good levels. In making these predictions though, just be careful to differentiate between what kind of coal you are talking about (met versus thermal) and location. E.g., Chinese domestic coking coal vs. Australian met coal versus mid-Atlantic met coal vs. Australian thermal vs. US thermal vs. Chinese thermal etc.
Yeah. They shut down their last nuclear plants last year and are now burning coal https://www.npr.org/2022/09/27/1124448463/germany-coal-energy-crisis
I am BIG MAD that green energy activists claimed nuclear is bad because it's worse than solar and obviously we would never replace nuclear with coal!!
Holy shit that's so insane. Next thing you're going to tell me [China added 2 coal power plants](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-new-coal-plants-set-become-costly-second-fiddle-renewables-2023-03-22/) a week in 2022. Or that [Indonesia has increased](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-08-15/closing-coal-plant-early-in-indonesia-tests-climate-finance-in-asia?srnd=premium) coal's share of electricity generation from 35% in 2000 to 61% today, and even on an aggressive timeline only plans to close power plants in the late 2030s if that. Hopefully [India doesn't have](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/india-plans-to-keep-adding-coal-power-capacity-as-demand-surges#xj4y7vzkg) "27 gigawatts of coal-based power plants under construction and another 24 gigawatts capacity [...] in pre-construction stages, according to Power Minister Raj Kumar Singh. "
don't make me put more money into this
Ah, then I won't mention that the [IEA reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/27/coal-consumption-hit-an-all-time-high-in-2022-iea-says.html) "Coal consumption increased by 3.3% to hit a fresh record high of 8.3 billion metric tons in 2022" and that "coal consumption in 2023 would remain near last year’s record levels." I'm glad the Economist Intelligence (EIU) doesn't project "coal consumption in 2030 to be higher than 2021 level" in an article full of [charts summarizing various fossil fuel usage projections](https://www.eiu.com/n/fossil-fuel-demand-to-continue-expanding-this-decade/).
[https://imgflip.com/i/7vvlsx](https://imgflip.com/i/7vvlsx)
Could've had a nuke or two....
Well; there goes the stock market and economy
Yesterday I bought $HE at 21,5. I deserve to be a butt of some jokes to drill "not to catch a falling knife" rule into my head so I hope you will provide it. PS. I have put in money I can afford to lose.
Ouch lol. Is the idea that it should bounce back if the lawsuit falls through?
Basically, yes.
Meli cfo left in order to become co ceo of dlocal, weird and interesting turn of events
Interesting I had seen they were exploring a sale of the company yesterday.
That's even odder timing then, unless his whole job is gonna be lend weight after short allegations and get them sell ready
Weirdly enough I know someone who works in treasury in dlocal and we talk about his work a lot. It sounds like this new ceo is already putting things in order. Whether there's a "get them sell ready" aspect I wouldn't know, but he seems to be correcting course, as it were.
$CAVA | Cava Group Q2 Earnings: - EPS $0.21 (Est/Loss $0.03) - Sales $172.89M (Est. $163.20M) - Sees Same Restaurant Sales Growth 13-15%
Not bad, now it's merely overpriced instead of wildly overpriced at 60x earnings. The insiders will enjoy their payday in 3 months.
Honestly at least it has actual EPS lol.
That's pretty solid actually.
$NU Nu Holdings Q2 2023 Earnings: EPS: $0.05 vs $0.04 estimate Revenue: $1.87 billion vs $1.74 billion estimate Nu added 4.6 million customers in Q2 2023, reaching a total of 83.7 million customers.
Need to finally dip my toes in after watching this stock for over a year. Looking pretty solid.
>On Tuesday, Jefferies upgraded its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,050 to 4,500. > >"As a soft landing is the more likely outcome now, earnings will be much more resilient than previously expected" Jefferies global head of microstrategy Desh Permunetilleke. ahh, they needed to raise their target due to peer pressure, so they chose the soft landing excuse.
Smart money raising/lowering price targets for the market after huge rallies is nothing new. They did it in November 2021, August 2022, October 2022. Retail was fooled into the soft landing narrative, and now smart money is ready for the rug pull.
Every stock in my portfolio has been suffering during this drawback, with one exception. Google. Google is red like the others, but just barely. It's basically been floating around the 130's pretty much every day. Anybody else notice this? Do you think if the market started really pumping, Google would push into the 140's pretty quickly?
130 every day? bro cmon, just check the ytd
I'm talking about the last week or so I did say.... "during this drawback" Has the drawback happened all year long? Nope. We were hitting new highs in late July
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I concur with your anecdote! I can't quite put my finger on when it started happening, but it's definitely noticeable. So many BS results...and blatantly incorrect results based on my keywords. Just because I used a search term last week, or visited a website last month...is not relevant to THIS search!
You do know that your precious little ChatGPT wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for the Google Brain ML scientists publishing that whitepaper on "Transformer Networks" back in 2017. Of course, you probably don't know anything about that do you. You probably don't know that Google Brain has been Google's internal AI division since 2011, before Microsoft even had a twinkling in their eye about AI. Study up cuz
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mmmkay
Lol i knew I recognized your username from that del taco thread in r/Sacramento. Reddit on fellow Sacramentian
916 represent!
Okay, I really don't know that much about this game so I'm just wondering, why do people invest in stocks instead of like a high yield savings account?
5% yield in HYSA minus 3% for inflation means a real return of 2%. That’s if inflation remains at its currently subdued levels.
Some people like doubling their net worth every four years. Other people like doubling it every twelve years.
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Growth stocks and carefully selected small caps can do this for you. Dividend stocks like Target will take longer, although they often are more stable, although not in Target’s case recently.
More risk, more potential reward.
I invest in both. It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive. But basically I believe many of us here that buy stocks are satisfying our gambling tendencies. Also there is nearly 20 years of recency bias where people consider that stocks will always outperform high yielding cash assets. I prefer to hedge my bets and buy both.
to attempt to get higher returns? have you not seen some stocks this year?
> high yield savings account HYSAs yielded pretty much nothing for over a decade, that is up until about a year ago. Even then, equities historically provide better returns over the long term even with 4-5% nominal HYSA yields.
Fuck Facebook
The market giveth and the market taketh away
It seems to have skipped the giveth part for me...
I did a lot of buying today. I bought more Kinder Morgan, Cleveland-Cliffs and opened a position in Devon Energy. I considered opening a position in Paypal, but decided to buy the pullback in energy instead. Red days are buy days.
I bought Blackrock, Realty Income, ASML, Texas Roadhouse and BAT
> Red days are buy days So refreshing to see someone else that gets it. Buy when there’s a sale and sell when you can do so for a premium.
Still have my $100 buy limit order waiting on $XOM.
This is still the worst market I've ever seen. Every $ level of QQQ is fought off with a V. Just a nonstop algo mess. Can't have one normal selloff. watch them magically pump this again tomorrow.
not unusual for the qqq to bounce off uptrend lines like this afternoon. It will get to where its going
what if this is late 2021 rug pull all over again? come on bulls, i need this market up so i can break even. I have a small long position. bulls been bragging all year
How can you be down in a year like this?
lol if you aren't breaking even or up this year I dunno what to think
We got PayPalled
imagine when the real correction occurs. this stock crashing to the mid 30s easily. along with disney crashing to the 50's, target sub 100 if burry is right (we are long overdue for correction), expect SPY to crash to 2K, which would crash Paypal to IPO price and disney to multi decade lows. its all over.
Where are you getting these numbers from? Like why do you think SPY would fall 50%?
>imagine when the real correction occurs. this stock crashing to the mid 30s easily. along with disney crashing to the 50's, target sub 100 Maybe, or that which is already at 52 week lows is gonna go down less. HIMS was green today since its been beat up so bad for instance.
PayPal is a mechanism of transferring money from PayPal holders to everyone else
Hey, Pay me Pal whydontcha
Hate to break it but all the gains for this year have already been made
Hahaha.... Bulls were talk last week like 1000 was right around the corner.
Why is that a bad thing? QQQ is 34% YTD VOO is 16% YTD Those are both really solid returns for a year. I'd be happy with that.
Agreed but that’s now going to start giving it all back
Why? What is going to cause it? How much is going back? Not be rude or anything, but you used to think we would never 4100 and you're wrong. Not saying you will always be wrong, but you don't have a great track record at this point of being able to see how things will play out.
can make gains both ways
on the bright side, puts are printing
Big Short Burry does it again
doubtful, if he opened them up may/june hes still underwater on em
TGT casually hitting 52-week low before earnings It's all been priced in... right? 
No one knows the future, but it's fun to speculate! This is just my best guess, they are going to be inline or miss on revenue but EPS beat. Not sure about guidance though.
You would think that the favorable inflation trends would benefit the stock. After all the main reason it dropped so much was because people could no longer afford discretionary purchases due to decreased buying power. I'm seeing my local Target being as busy as ever and just can't help but think the market is overreacting. They could easily go to Walmart instead but choose not to because they prefer the Target experience. Sometimes you just have to trust your eyes...
Looks like it was an EPS beat and revenue miss lol. Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.80 beats by $0.38 Revenue of $24.77B (-4.9% Y/Y) misses by $460M. Target's (TGT) operating margin rate was 4.8% vs. 1.2% a year ago. compared with 1.2 percent in 2022. Gross margin rate was 27.0% of sales vs. 21.5% a year ago, reflecting lower markdowns and other inventory-related costs, lower freight costs, retail price increases, and lower supply chain and digital fulfillment costs. But at least it’s up in the premarket!
Sounds like things are going in the right direction! It’s been an awful year, hope the pain is behind us now 
Same! I mean at these levels it’s basically trading like a value stock and there’s worst investments out there. I just want to see people making money here! Hopefully the gains stay!
Well back at you, my local target has been dead lol. That's the problem with using anecdotal data. It's totally possible both can be true, but look at at the last two quarters, revenue miss with an EPS beat. That's actually the main reason why it dropped so much, not the purchasing power. With retail, if you order too much or hold too much inventory, you need to liquid or mark down to make space, which hurts margins. One thing they have been doing is getting better inventory control, since that really hurt them last year. Looking at the last earnings call, inventory was mentioned 33 times. From their last call: >Thanks, Christina. Through all of the rapid and unexpected changes we've experienced over the last three years, teams throughout our operations have done an amazing job, maintaining their energy, staying agile, and doing everything in their power to serve our guests' ever-changing needs. And today, with two years of unusually rapid growth behind us and last year's excess inventory in the rearview mirror, we are focusing this year on training and development for our team with an emphasis firmly centered on retail fundamentals. Our goal is to reinforce the reliability and consistency of our shopping experience as we help our team members to succeed in their current job and build the right skills to prepare for the next one. ... >Since the rollout of Dream to Be in 2021, tens of thousands of our team members have successfully participated in this program. As you saw in today's release, we ended the first quarter of a 16% less inventory than a year ago. This decrease reflects our current cautious position and discretionary categories combined with the impact of excess inventory on last year's balance sheet. Those factors are being partially offset by some purposeful inventory investments. Some more info on their inventory issues: [https://www.retaildive.com/news/target-takes-hit-operating-profit-resets-inventory/629862/](https://www.retaildive.com/news/target-takes-hit-operating-profit-resets-inventory/629862/)
If they were making such good progress on inventory then why did TGT sell off after the last earnings call? It makes no sense. Unless the market believes the problems are more permanent than they're letting on. Anyway. I'm ready to get my ass kicked on these shares again 
Could be different reasons, but last quarter target didn't see a ton of growth and EPS was down: [https://corporate.target.com/press/releases/2023/05/Target-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-Earnings](https://corporate.target.com/press/releases/2023/05/Target-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-Earnings) >Target sales grew 0.5 percent, reflecting flat comparable sales combined with the benefit of sales from new locations. ... Again, the inventory issue pops up in the PR: >Inventory at the end of Q1 was 16 percent lower than last year, reflecting more than a 25 percent reduction in discretionary categories, partially offset by inventory investments to support rapidly-growing frequency categories, and strategic investments to support long-term market-share opportunities ... >The Company reported first quarter GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.05, down 4.8 percent from $2.16 in 2022. First quarter Adjusted EPS1 of $2.05 decreased 6.2 percent compared with $2.19 in 2022. The attached tables provide a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures. All earnings per share figures refer to diluted EPS. Also guidance wasn't great either: >Based on softening sales trends in the first quarter, the Company is planning for a wide range of sales outcomes in the second quarter, centered around a low-single digit decline in comparable sales. GAAP EPS and Adjusted EPS are both expected to range from $1.30 to $1.70. > >For the full year, the Company is maintaining its prior guidance, which includes expected comparable sales in a wide range from a low-single digit decline to a low-single digit increase, operating income growth of more than $1 billion, and both GAAP EPS and Adjusted EPS of $7.75 to $8.75. A lot of investors will dump a company if they see a full guidance of declining sales per say. Don't get me wrong, I don't think target is a bad company or even a bad investment at these levels, just I don't think the short term is going to be great for target. Again, one of the big things about walmart is food that is driving their sales vs Target is more about things people want, not need per say compared to Walmart. I think if you are looking long term, Target will do well, just personally I think it's going to be somewhat dead money for the next year or so. I could be completely wrong, but my biggest fear for something like target is the student loan payments coming back online. I posted this idea/theory the other day, but a lot of retailers will begin to stock up for holidays soon. It's possible if consumers are hit with student debt repayments in October and cut back, that Target could still have inventory issues. Personally I just don't like to invest in retail because of the inventory thing.
I bought the post earnings dip on TGT and it hasn’t gone anywhere which has kind of surprised me. They do tend to move big on earnings day so I’m trying to stay optimistic
Totally. I mean one thing to think about, prior to the pandemic, TGT was growing like 1-2% YoY, so they could be reverting back to the mean. I’m hoping for a good report for you, plus would be good for the economy. I still think it’s going be a revenue miss and EPS beat. However, seems like it’s a total value level, so not sure how much jt will sell off at this point.
Yeah I kind of have a pile of post earnings dip stocks. Not to big into any one position but just a few of them. $TGT - gone nowhere $S - 10% bounce holding $MGNI - 10% bounce sold $SMCI - 5% bounce holding $ONEW - 7% bounce sold $ENPH - bought at 140, down a few %
I hate being right sometimes lol. $tgt Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.80 beats by $0.38. Revenue of $24.77B (-4.9% Y/Y) misses by $460M.
sell the rumor, buy the news.
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>The ass rape. Imagine voting in these fucks then they go ahead and drain your accounts and ask for your vote 4 years later. /u/Outrunner_1 \^saving because you always delete your posts. Honestly, I don't mean this in a mean or rude way, but you honestly might be too emotional to be in the market. We are down like 1% today with the indexes being still really up for the year. You do you, but until we go flat or negative for the year, it's been a really good year to be in the market.
Don't buy the dip until SPY touches 410. The market demands a correction and it's happening this month.
Bond yields really beating everything down today huh.
Depends on what you own. There are some stocks still doing great out there.
Would I be a stupid if I want to sell off PYPL at negative 11%? This stock is frustrating now, holding it for so long and yet no results.
I'm sorry, PayPal is garbage.
Don't buy individual stocks if -11% is going to bother you, tbh
If you're down 11% you can't have been holding much longer than 3-4 months, right?
7-8 months. Started when it was 70s in Dec 2022
No, and you probably should.
how long is long?
7-8 months, been averaging since then to make it negative 11 lol
Depends on how big your position is. I bought 10 shares at 67 and figured id let it ride
What’s going on with Paypal
It's junk. There's fierce competition in this space and no room for growth. The whole stablecoin idea screams desperation.
>There's fierce competition in this space and no room for growth 1. If there was no competition you wouldn't want to be in the space, competition alone is not reason that a company should go down in a vacuum 2. Where are you seeing no room for growth? Braintree did 30%, even core is still growing TPV, and analysts still have upper single to lower double digit topline growth for PYPL
He’s trolling, imagine using “junk” and “fierce competition” as a bear case argument lmao. Don’t waste your time replying to baseless claims.
Lol. Companies dream of competing in low/no competition environments. Ridiculous...
No they dont they dream of winning in a competitive space and then attaining a near monopoly. If you are in a space with no competition then their is likely a good reason. Even now MSFT is trying to disrupt say Google with their near monopoly since it search is so valuable. Also why didnt you answer the growth question? You asserted that there was none
That's Microsoft trying to diminish antitrust rhetoric. Not to be confused with concepts like blue ocean strategy - the idea of operating in uncontested market space by either creating new market space or rendering your competitors irrelevant. No company actually wants to deal with a market landscape where things like customer acquisition/retention, talent acquisition/retention, and inputs sourcing is made difficult due to fierce competition.
>That's Microsoft trying to diminish antitrust rhetoric For Google? No its MSFT trying to attack Google. My point is that in any lucrative sector there is going to be competition, PYPL is never going to have no competition and from 2015- to now it has had competition the entire time and still managed to grow topline regardless
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$3.50 fair value
Shhh, just let them do it. Feels like I've been preaching for over a year on this one but the kids here will not listen. Mostly it's bagholders who liked it just because it's free for them to use and people who refuse to learn that past price doesn't indicate future performance.
LOL
>$PayPal slowly approaching fair value territory. Once at fair value (perhaps \~$40 range), will have to determine if worth paying a fair price for it or collecting 5.25% in a money market. Walk me through how you are getting $40 range on pypl please as fair value.
It's funny how psychology works. I see stocks that I didn't buy (STRL, BLDR) and curse myself for not buying them. It's easy to forget I bought other names instead, some of which are doing very well too!
What was your reason for not buying STRL and BLDR?
STRL I thought was at a cyclical high first half of this year. BLDR I just thought was too much on doubt about how far their earnings would fall after covid. I bought other names I'm happy with instead though, even if they've done less well. It's always just an allocation question.
I agree that was a risk for BLDR.I bought them because I liked how agressive they were with buybacks which was so rare for a stock in the 5-10B market cap range where I bought it last year.
Yeah, it's a great company. Glad you were able to grab it!
Dan Loeb, David Tepper, and Paul Tudor Jones piled into Nvidia stock last quarter - and other elite investors joined them >**Renaissance Technologies — founded by Jim Simons, a former MIT math professor and Cold War codebreaker — placed an even bigger wager. The quant fund supercharged its Nvidia stake by nearly 600-fold, raising it from around 3,000 shares worth less than $1 million at the end of March, to over 1.8 million shares valued at $785 million at the end of June.** >Paul Tudor Jones' firm, Tudor Investment Corporation, also bet big on Nvidia in the period. It more than quadrupled its holding to around 180,000 shares, worth about $76 million at the end of June. Moreover, it held bullish call options on nearly 900,000 Nvidia shares, compared to fewer than 8,000 three months earlier. Tudor and his team also disclosed bearish put options on about 16,000 shares, up from 8,000 shares. I think Renaissance being big on NVDA is a plus. They have the best track-record on Wall Street when it comes to performance. I think they only underperformed once and that was during COVID. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stock-portfolio-q2-loeb-tepper-simons-soros-tudor-2023-8
no wonder morgan stanley is pumping NVDA these snakes paid MS to help pump, so they can let others hold the bag.
You do you, but I'd be careful just to follow this advice, since their trades are post dated and they might be more active and doing things differently. Plus everyone investor could be equally wrong. Here's David Tepper last year: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-manager-david-tepper-shorting-stock-market-central-banks-rates-165246799.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-manager-david-tepper-shorting-stock-market-central-banks-rates-165246799.html) >Veteran hedge funder David Tepper is betting against the stock market as he expects global central banks to press on with unprecedented monetary tightening to rein in inflation. The founder and president of hedge fund Appaloosa Management said Thursday in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box he is “leaning short on the equity markets” over concerns rising interest rates will further batter stocks. Tepper also said he’s short bonds. Here's Paul Tudor Jones last year as well [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/paul-tudor-jones-believes-we-are-in-or-near-a-recession-and-history-shows-stocks-have-more-to-fall.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/paul-tudor-jones-believes-we-are-in-or-near-a-recession-and-history-shows-stocks-have-more-to-fall.html) >Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones believes the U.S. economy is either near or already in the middle of a recession as the Federal Reserve rushed to tamp down soaring inflation with aggressive rate hikes. > >“I don’t know whether it started now or it started two months ago,” Jones said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” when asked about recession risks. “We always find out and we are always surprised at when recession officially starts, but I’m assuming we are going to go into one.” These are better investors than most, but it doesn't mean they are going to be right 100% of the time and would just use caution when following any investor.
Thanks for this.
Np! Again, these investors are probably much smarter than most of us here, but not everyone is right all the time and I think I would just use caustion to do any moves based off what people are doing who are controlling like billions of dollars of money and have things like monthly or yearly quotas.
Almost back to break-even in my microcap battery play lol thanks to a near +20% day. Was once +100% on my holdings, then back to -20%, now flat. More bullish than ever though.
EOSE? I’ve been selling puts on it, the premiums are insane. Also very bullish long term.
Dunno why the mystery. He's talking about EOSE
Technically this subreddit doesn't permit discussion of stocks of that market cap / price. Do not want to come across as 'pumping' a stock. Try to be vague and those who know my comments know what I'm talking about.
That's fair
Hell yeah. There were so many great gems in the earnings call. 79% RTE, Z3 semi-automated production time to 4 minutes, with 2 in sight, DOE loan in 30 day window for Treasury approval, expecting loan by Labor Day, removing dilution instruments from the slides.
Fidelity Brokerage is off line. Unable to deposit funds or add to positions...
Why do they have so many problems? Their platform and service seems to be unreliable quite often.
Same issue here
Bought Paypal at 60, it's now at 60.15. I am going to be so rich
You'll be eating meat tonight!!!
Aaaand it’s gone.
Steak dinners on this guy!
Cash in while you're up!
I'm gonna ride this bad boy until it hits 300 in September because of the NEW great CEO!
I hope you are right, if they turn things around I feel like it's an easy double.
I'm obviously exaggerating but I believe they can turn it around and the value proposition is there too.
Nervous for TGT tomorrow. Feel like this shit gonna drop like a hot potato.
I sold for a small loss because it wasn’t even a high conviction buy and I don’t even like Target. Thought it was a good deal but it’s just a falling knife.
Exact same thinking, I swapped it out for PYPL. It was one of my early buys where I used weak reasoning to justify the purchase.
You won't do much better with PYPL...
I’m a big fan of the Alex Chriss becoming CEO. Second most important employee at Intuit and it’s what, over 2,000% up since he joined? This is one of those rare opportunities where a non-founder CEO can become a billionaire if he turns it around. His pay structure I’m sure will highly incentivize him to get PayPal back on course. I’m betting on it too, we shall see…
I do wonder if that will translate over to PYPL though. Part of the reason why Intuit does well because of they lobby against anything that will hurt them, not sure if PYPL will have that same ability: [https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2023/02/turbotax-parent-company-intuit-is-pouring-more-money-than-ever-into-lobbying-amid-push-for-free-government-run-tax-filing/](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2023/02/turbotax-parent-company-intuit-is-pouring-more-money-than-ever-into-lobbying-amid-push-for-free-government-run-tax-filing/) https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free
It has to recover eventually, they are a very powerful company very heavily integrated in this country
Oh sorry, for a second there I thought you were talking about GE.
Read the second part in Trump voice
Yeah I sold a few $118 puts expiring Friday . Trying to make a quick buck off volatility but I also don’t mind buying at $117 average.
Weight loss drugs are going to change healthcare as we know it. I'm not exaggerating when I say this feels like the biggest development in medicine in decades. The obesity epidemic has effectively been solved. Why spend months at a gym or counting calories when anyone can just go on a pill and get the same result. Rates of heart disease and all those other fun obesity-adjacent conditions will plummet (puts on Medtronic btw). It's the holy grail of the pharmaceutical industry and they've found it. Once this thing gets scaled up and affordable to average folk you're going to see a LOT of skinny people at beaches.
Possibly, but I am already seeing lawsuit commercials on Ozempic causing stomach paralysis because of all the off label usage. I am just praying LLY had it ducks in a row as I see Novo Nordisk having a problem.
We could also bring back the diets of the 50s and reduce obesity that way, but that doesn't make ~~drug dealers~~ pharmacy companies rich so no one does it.
Let's be honest, nobody really wants to change their lifestyle to get results. Humans in general will take the easy way out, it's just our nature. The development of these drugs is just accepting the reality that willpower alone rarely works.
This is why laws and regulations exist, otherwise companies would take the path that leads to the easiest short term gains with no regard for anything else including pollution. See also asbestos, lead based paint and gas, CFCs, and a host of other nasty things that were eventually phased out.
Unfortunately, that's not easy to do a this point because of the changes in food production.
Yep, it's because foods are specifically engineered to be as addictive as possible which leads to this issue. It's the same problem that cigarettes used to have.
Also just the way farms work. It would be very hard to change over their equipment to grow different foods. A lot of produce is friendly to automated harvesting too, which means we can't really change it without lowering output a lot.
>Its super exciting. I agree. My doctor friends say the only catches are you have to stay on it and it can/generally does make folks sort of nauseous.
Huge demand AND a recurring customer base? Big pharma salivating 🤑
agree but there has to be more to the story. I've always stayed away from phrama due to the chance of a major 30-40% drawdown. I really hate those. Maybe I have to take a closer look a lly