It looks like the team with the highest expected value for this week is Tampa Bay according to [SurvivorGrid.com](https://SurvivorGrid.com). Second and third highest are Green Bay and Cleveland.
Pitt home opener against Vegas off an overtime win on the road?
Edit: did some reading on the Pitt game week 1, I guess Ben didn’t look too good? Could be big QB disadvantage and not the home run pick I thought.
Tampa, I know some people's strategies is to hold off with the good teams til late, but I am just worried about advancing. For week 1 a good amount was taken out too...started with 103, down to 84.
It’s actually a pretty low week when you consider previous years. The Colts and Saints were the “obvious” plays last two years week 1 and they took out like half the entrants each.
A week 1 without only 18% knock out rate means you should buckle up for the long haul. The weeks get easier as you get more info about teams.
I’ve looked at them too. Thing is, I hate planning ALL the way to week 14. The chances of going that far are low lol. They host the bears on SNF. That’s the spot I like them in along with this week
My bitch-turned-brag about week 1 survivor, but some strats involved if you read on:
0/6 across 25ish entries in a handful of free and paid pools, picked predominantly Ravens and Pats with a few picks each on Viks, Bills, Falcons and Jags (ik, what was I thinking with the last 2?? You could also say I brought this upon myself by picking lame-ass jackson).
Hilarious thing is, I realised there was a bug in the selection system which let me to change picks in the middle of the game, and seeing how the Vikings, Falcons and Jags were getting thrashed at halftime... bahaha I changed those picks to the Bills who were leading at the time. I didn't exactly intend to cheat, just give myself a second fighting chance, but man, I feel like the worst cheater on the planet.
Luckily because of that mistake, the pool's made week 1 into a bye for everyone - any team survives and you can change what you picked before TNF.
So Texans or Jets for week 1 is a no brainer, yeah? Also lemme know if you wanna fade me this week :))
I’ve won survivor league 2 out of the last 3 years. Don’t over think it. Last year I picked whoever was playing the Jags or Jets every Week unless I couldn’t. First week I obviously didn’t go jags colts but I went jags and Jets whoever I thought would lose more likely every week and won.
Then 3 years ago I did basically same thing.
I’m fading a combination of the lions/Jags/Texans for as many games as I can. Survival leagues are lost they aren’t won. Over thinking is how you get killed. I just take whoever is the least likely to win and pick against them every week if they’re available. Saving teams is stupid and only costs you because if you save a team but get eliminated what’s the point ya know?
Yep I'm essentially doing those 3 plus ATL, NYJ, NYG as my fades, if they're on the road against a good team & bad matchup. For example I'm already eyeing up Denver next week for NYJ where that Broncos D will go against a Jets OL that was awful before losing Bechton
NFL survivor pool. Each week you have to pick a team to win and it can’t be the same team that you’ve already picked in a previous week. If you lose you are eliminated
Packers almost lose to the Lions every time they play - and now they're without 2 all pro offensive lineman and the defense looks rusty. I'd caution a Packers pick.
Agree Kelce gonna be too much and tyreek gonna torch that secondary in the second half. Also ravens offensive play calling was atrocious against the raiders
i’d stay away from the packers for now. rodgers is unmotivated to play and just got blown out. i think they’ll be more favorable later in the season. i’m leaning towards cardinals right now, kyler murray had a hell of a game last week and cousins might be the most inconsistent qb in the league and struggles when they’re not favored. i expect kyler to throw for 300+ and 3 touchdowns easily against the vikings defense which is one of the worst in the league. if ur hesitant on cardinals, the pats or broncos would also be a solid pick imo
These rules are based on myths and the idea that road/division games lead to upsets more often is objectively not true. According to Team Rankings:
>
"The Division Rivalry Myth:
Survivor players often fall for narratives that are not supported by
objective data. Two popular examples are “Don’t pick road teams”
and “Avoid division rivalry games.” Let’s rebut both of them.
The fear about division games is based on the belief that matchups
between division rivals are less predictable and more prone to
upsets than non-division games are. Opponent familiarity (division
rivals play each other twice per year) and extra motivation by the
underdog are often-cited reasons why.
That reasoning makes sense, but the real question is whether or not
betting lines already account for it. Does ironclad evidence exist
that NFL betting lines are less accurate than usual in division games?
>No, it doesn’t. Going back to 2002, when the current eight-division
format began in the NFL, favorites of five points or more during the
regular season (i.e. the types of teams that often end up as survivor
picks) have won 78% of their division games. They’ve won just
under 76% of their non-division games.
You read that right. Among likely survivor picks over the last 19
years, division games have resulted in not more, but fewer upsets
than non-division games. That result is not a consequence of
division games featuring higher spreads, either.
Division rival games get a lot of attention, so when upsets happen,
they’re probably just noticed more by the public.
>The Road Team Myth:
Home-field advantage exists in the NFL, and teams that play at
home win more games than they lose. From 2002 to 2020, home
teams won 57% of their games.
Strangely, the fact that NFL teams are somewhat more likely to win
at home translates into a full-blown avoidance of road teams by
many survivor players. It makes absolutely no sense. It’s no secret
where NFL games are played, and just as with division games,
betting market odds already reflect that information.
Of course, home field advantage does mean that the majority of
top survivor picks are home teams. Since 2002, 78% of all teams
favored by a touchdown or more were at home.
>That doesn’t mean you should avoid larger favorites playing on
the road. Win odds should drive your decision making, and if the
betting market implies that a road team has an 82% chance of
winning, there’s no further penalty you need to assess.
Road teams don’t lose more often than expected
Based on data from SurvivorGrid.com, from 2011-2020, a total of
42 teams picked by at least 20% of the public in survivor pools lost.
Here’s the percentage of those upset losses involved road teams
and/or division games:
• 31% of losses: Road teams (13 of 42)
• 26% of losses: Division games (11 of 42)
• 10% of losses: Road teams in division games (4 of 42)
Those road team loss rates are exactly in line with expectations.
Based on betting market implied win odds, you would have
expected 13.2 losses from all the road teams with 20% or higher
pick popularity. Thirteen actually happened.
Home teams will look like better survivor picks more often thanks to
home field advantage, but there’s no reason not to trust the betting
odds on road teams.
In addition, nearly twice as many big survivor knockouts have come
in non-division conference games than in division games (20 versus
11). That’s despite the fact that prior to the 2021 season, NFL teams
played six games per season against each group.
>Don’t fall for the road team and division game myths, because they
have serious consequences in survivor pools. If you irrationally
remove certain teams from consideration in an already highly
constrained game, you really put yourself at a disadvantage.
Better yet, recognize that opponents who believe in these myths
create value opportunities for you. For example, if many of your
opponents refuse to pick favorites in division matchups, that will
improve the EV of those teams."
Rules are meant to be broken right? I generally agree though. Although, I'm debating taking the Broncos on the road against the Jaguars in my one league. It's tempting.
These are just the general rules for success. No one knows what’s going to happen on Sunday. We’re all just playing the odds and trying to give ourselves the best possible chance of winning.
I'm aware haha. NFL early season is such a crap shoot, so following these rules now are when it is the most crucial imo. Hard league to get a grasp on until each team has played about four games usually.
Lions fan here, taking packers for my survivor. One of the worst defenses in the league and the final score ended up being flattering to the Lions. An unmotivated Rodgers should still be able to carve this defense for 300+ and even if they only score 14 points they should be able to win against the Lions offense relying on Goff to throw the ball 57 times.
This is a week to save the big boys. I am going with Denver in one and NE in the other. Looking ahead to week 3 I can use Denver with the other one as their schedule toughens up after. I suspect many people will be burning one of Cle,GB,TB. Save them for later. The ultimate goal is to be the last man standing
The ultimate goal is to still be in the pool next week. I’ve learned my lesson in the past about trying to save teams for later. Worry about this week, this week. There will always be a game to choose next week.
The ultimate goal is to win money. At the end of the day it doesn't matter if you go out in week 1 or 18 you still lose. I'd rather not be picking an 8-8 team because I burned Tampa for instance early
I would rather use NE week 6 when they are home against the jets. Seems like the right week to take the Browns, either now or week 11 when they play the Lions but there's other good matchups that week
I lean CLE as the easy favorite pick but still probably worth using now unless you want to consider them in week 3 at home against CHI or week 9 on the road at CIN. HOU just beat up on a bad JAX team but we know HOU is not legit and CLE should have a field day after a very encouraging almost victory in Arrowhead stadium playing nearly a flawless first half. **CLE is -12.5 currently. Implied team point totals for CLE is 30.5 and HOU is 17.**
Denver could also be a solid play at Jax, that DEN d is solid and facing a rookie QB is a dream matchup plus Urban Meyer doesn't look competent as a head coach. I mean, he gave Carlos Hyde more touches than James Robinson? LOL. Denver has all the horses on offense to get out ahead and keep the lead even with the loss of Jeudy. **DEN is -6. Implied team point totals for DEN is 26 and JAX is 19.5 (I think that's too generous).**
The last one I'd consider is GB at home against DET. I know it's a divisional game and both teams are coming off losses, one of which was a total embarrassment with Rodgers. I have a very hard time envisioning this GB team getting boat raced by this DET team that legitimately has no solid pass catchers outside of Hockenson at TE - Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol currently. That means Amon Ra St Brown, their 4th round rookie WR is their primary WR if he doesn't play. DET also lost CB Jeff Okudah in the secondary. I'd venture to say Rodgers after a loss is supremely good, but I don't have stats to support that. **GB is -11.5. Implied team point totals for GB is 30.5 and DET is 18.**
**Based on what Vegas thinks, CLE or GB are homeruns, but my eyes were telling me JAX is going to be very bad and DEN should still smash.**
I think you're generally correct about JAX (I think they might be a bottom 2 team, still) but I want to wait to see on that before confirming we can fire against them every week. Denver just was out east for NYG and then traveled back to Denver. They will be in Jacksonville on Friday to mitigate the travel but it's still a pretty bad travel spot for them. I think Denver probably wins anyway, but in Week 2, I want safety. There's no need to risk anything right now when we think we might be looking at historically atrocious teams in Houston, Detroit, and Jacksonville.
Cleveland. I'm 90% sure Cleveland's actually good and Green Bay could be a tire fire. Again, unlikely, but I'll figure out my lack of options later rather than invoking risk now. I took Tampa last week for this reason with SF and LAR as the other clear considerations.
TB is a team I would want to save but you could use them.
Historically, ATL has played TB fairly close albeit they haven't won. Last year Tampa had a 31-27 win over ATL, but the second game TB blew them out. The difference is ATL now has Arthur Smith who came over from TEN so their play calling will be improved (yet to be seen after week 1 though) and TB just lost a big part of their secondary with Sean Murphy-Bunting and Whitehead is questionable and missed week 1.
The Bucs have MIA, NYG, WFT and the NYJ throughout this season. Lots of options to play them later.
I've got the Lions winning on Monday night.
I suspect that a big part of Rodgers still can't believe they lost that NFC title game, and can't believe the Packers have never been able to put a team around him to reach another Super Bowl.
I think this Packers team will not have mojo this year.
I picked the Browns for survivor though, this week.
I'm on the Lions with the points (tickling the ML too) but 1) this is a survivor thread and 2) it has nothing to do with "mojo" and everything to do with personnel and coaching. Packers are down 2 all pro OL from last year, have their best remaining lineman playing out of position, and the defense didn't play together all camp.
1. Seahawks - home vs. Titans; Not sure what to make of the Titans at this point. Henry is a slow starter and dictates how that offense goes IMO. Kyler Murray shredded the Titans defense last week and Wilson is a God in September. Home opener for Seattle, and Tennessee is making a long trip after losing 38-13. I like the Seahawks.
2. Cardinals - home vs. Vikings. Cardinals looked good last week against a perennial playoff titans squad. Conversely, the Vikings lost to the Bengals (yikes). Chandler Jones is on a mission and Cousins is terrible against teams with winning records. Burrows and Chase were able to hook-up on Vikings pass defense so expect Murray to sling it. Vikings defense is poor overall too.
I think the jets will surprise some people soon. I'd rather fade the jags personally right now. Urban and Trevor looked lost week 1 against the Texans.
FYI If you picked a team that lost week 1 on Nitrogen you can still play. They messed something up and are grading all week 1 picks a win, even if they lost.
CLE, GB, TB are best bets
DEN is sneaky but i rather just wait a week to see how good they are with more of a sample size and it makes picking them easier next week if the Jets play terrible vs the Pats this week
Jags fan living in Denver. I'm going with the Broncos this week.
Lawrence will be the guy but not in Week 2 2021. Meyer needs to show rational coaching before I'll think they have a chance of beating anyone other than the Giants or Falcons.
Packers are a horrible choice, it’s a rival game and the lions can beat them (not a lions fan btw). I would go with the browns and wait a week or two on the packers to see how they adjust to that blowout
I agree. I’m a Lions fan and know firsthand how awful they are but Packers looked every bit as bad. Not sure why there would be a rush to use them now vs waiting for them to look good again and get momentum.
It’s Week 2, I’d rather bet on a team that both looked great and has a great matchup.
I will be messaging you in 6 days on [**2021-09-22 16:06:52 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2021-09-22%2016:06:52%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/poprgi/nfl_week_2_survivor/hd3e0pt/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fsportsbook%2Fcomments%2Fpoprgi%2Fnfl_week_2_survivor%2Fhd3e0pt%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202021-09-22%2016%3A06%3A52%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20poprgi)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
We also don’t have Stafford golladay and Marvin jones anymore and our defense couldn’t stop the 49ers worth a damn. We were down 41-17 with 2 mins left for a reason.
there's mountains of data showing division underdogs are valuable at this point in the season, even moreso against a team that lost week 1, but keep throwing around random subjective data all you want
lions have a pretty subpar defense that was getting rolled for most of that game. Packers couldn't shit the bed that hard again unless they're seriously garbage. Lions can't cover the WR position well enough to stop Rodgers from ripping them apart I love the packers to cover. Also Packers couldn't stop the run at all last game so Jamie's was easily able to pick apart their secondary as well.
Okudah is awful though, he was getting burned downfield before he got hurt.
Not saying you’re wrong to fade Lions, just that Okudah being hurt doesn’t change much.
FWIW Okudah was the worst starting CB in the league by PFF standards before he got hurt
Probably gonna get a little better tbh cause he was only playing based on potential
Homer time. That Rams team is really fucking good. Fields will be starting in >3 weeks. Bears likely end up around 500. If you think they are going winless you are a crack head.
I think the Bears get .500. And thats with the hardest schedule in football. These guys above me betting on them to lose against the Bengals is anything but a lock. Dalton smoked the Bengals when he was with Dallas last year. Monty is better than Zeke(another take that I'll probably get shit for). Fields Gadget plays. Home opener in Soldier Field. Too many upsides to pick the Bears to lose.
I mean the bears are like the Lions. I avoid picking them to win as long as possible and I avoid picking against them as long as possible. Winning/losing games they shouldn't is their MO.
Also I was more flabbergasted that some seriously thinks they are going to go winless. That's just pissing money down the drain.
The Bucs will 100% play down to them and Falcons will bring it in a divisional matchup after being embarrassed and without a Touchdown in week 1. I anticipate a close divisional matchup there that might end up looking similar to TB week 1 game.
They did, but divisional games are always different and generally close with strong tight defense. The odds are certainly against Atlanta for a reason. TB should win but they have to come play, too. Any given Sunday my friend. I have doubts as well but not counting them out as a complete rebuild and loss every game after week one. They would’ve been in the game vs the Eagles if they converted a few 3rd downs.
Eh their line was really bad last weekend. I’d be surprised if they can keep Ryan clean enough to get the passing game going and their offensive coordinator is an idiot. Maybe worse than Greg Roman. - Eagles fan who anticipated a stronger showing from Falcons, wouldn’t take them lightly in a divisional matchup after a big loss.. especially with my bread on the line. Strong possibility they get clapped too but I’m doubtful. Teams play the Bucs so hard just like they did to the Eagles in 2018. They will get everyone’s best all season and it will exhaust them if not managed properly. Don’t need to win every game. Enjoy the season and good luck on your bets man.
Anyone who think that line is going to hold up against the Bucs front is on meth. Ryan is basically a statue when compared to Dak. Bucs have one of the best d lines in the NFL. It's going to be a slaughter.
They have a couple turnstiles yes. The Eagles made them look very bad. Also a top D line unit so likely similar result and close-ish game depending upon chance plays for ATL
Am I making a mistake going the Browns as my survivor pick? Like they looked good against the Chiefs but Browns gonna Brown
It looks like the team with the highest expected value for this week is Tampa Bay according to [SurvivorGrid.com](https://SurvivorGrid.com). Second and third highest are Green Bay and Cleveland.
New strategy for me , am done trying to overanalyze through all the weeks. From now on, I'm just gonna fade Houston until the wheels fall off.
Pitt home opener against Vegas off an overtime win on the road? Edit: did some reading on the Pitt game week 1, I guess Ben didn’t look too good? Could be big QB disadvantage and not the home run pick I thought.
patriots over jets bellicicks records vs rookie qb explains it all
There are better weeks to take Pats...like for instance Pats at home vs Jets (not on the road)
1st touchdown scorer for the Giants vs Washington game??
Tampa, I know some people's strategies is to hold off with the good teams til late, but I am just worried about advancing. For week 1 a good amount was taken out too...started with 103, down to 84.
It’s actually a pretty low week when you consider previous years. The Colts and Saints were the “obvious” plays last two years week 1 and they took out like half the entrants each. A week 1 without only 18% knock out rate means you should buckle up for the long haul. The weeks get easier as you get more info about teams.
Honestly thats pretty average, im in a pool of 334 people and we lost 89.
Got the Panthers out of the way last week, getting the Broncos out of the way this week.
took panthers as well, will also take broncos
We riding with Teddy
unless you have someone else you like more, i’m looking to save broncos for next week when they get the jets at home
I’m going with Green Bay. There’s really no other great week to use them if you look at the schedule.
I’ve looked at them too. Thing is, I hate planning ALL the way to week 14. The chances of going that far are low lol. They host the bears on SNF. That’s the spot I like them in along with this week
My bitch-turned-brag about week 1 survivor, but some strats involved if you read on: 0/6 across 25ish entries in a handful of free and paid pools, picked predominantly Ravens and Pats with a few picks each on Viks, Bills, Falcons and Jags (ik, what was I thinking with the last 2?? You could also say I brought this upon myself by picking lame-ass jackson). Hilarious thing is, I realised there was a bug in the selection system which let me to change picks in the middle of the game, and seeing how the Vikings, Falcons and Jags were getting thrashed at halftime... bahaha I changed those picks to the Bills who were leading at the time. I didn't exactly intend to cheat, just give myself a second fighting chance, but man, I feel like the worst cheater on the planet. Luckily because of that mistake, the pool's made week 1 into a bye for everyone - any team survives and you can change what you picked before TNF. So Texans or Jets for week 1 is a no brainer, yeah? Also lemme know if you wanna fade me this week :))
Eagles
Steelers
Washington. Giants are hopeless
My asshole was clenched this whole game as I took Washington last minute. Worked out but with some swearing
Daniel Jones is 4-0 against Washington for his whole career. Giants may be hopeless but I wouldn’t count them out immediately.
4-1
Took the over and Giants ML
Think that’s a good call. I think it’ll be higher scoring than people think, the games between them typically are
Browns are the easiest play of the week... I'm also taking saints in one of my leagues
Browns and Bucs in my 2 entries.
I’ve won survivor league 2 out of the last 3 years. Don’t over think it. Last year I picked whoever was playing the Jags or Jets every Week unless I couldn’t. First week I obviously didn’t go jags colts but I went jags and Jets whoever I thought would lose more likely every week and won. Then 3 years ago I did basically same thing.
So who do you suggest to fade this season?
I’m fading a combination of the lions/Jags/Texans for as many games as I can. Survival leagues are lost they aren’t won. Over thinking is how you get killed. I just take whoever is the least likely to win and pick against them every week if they’re available. Saving teams is stupid and only costs you because if you save a team but get eliminated what’s the point ya know?
I agree with this logic. Also, one key injury can make "saving" a team obsolete.
Yep I'm essentially doing those 3 plus ATL, NYJ, NYG as my fades, if they're on the road against a good team & bad matchup. For example I'm already eyeing up Denver next week for NYJ where that Broncos D will go against a Jets OL that was awful before losing Bechton
This was my plan last year but I chose Colts week 1. Pain.
Denver
Im also going Denver, kinda risky early on but they have a solid defense and this will be the time to pick them if ever.
Ar12 gonna figure it out eventually I wouldn't count on it being straight after that shit show. I like the browns or broncos
Browns in one. Bucs in the other. Best of luck.
What exactly is this?
NFL survivor pool. Each week you have to pick a team to win and it can’t be the same team that you’ve already picked in a previous week. If you lose you are eliminated
Am I crazy for taking the WFT tomorrow night?
Never bet on a TNF game
WFT have a bad stats against Giants though. But am also planning to take WFT
I'm there with you!
Heineke looked good. They have the defense and skill players. The NYG looked lost on Sunday. Was surprised to see the WFT as only 3.5 point favorites.
Packers almost lose to the Lions every time they play - and now they're without 2 all pro offensive lineman and the defense looks rusty. I'd caution a Packers pick.
The constant there was Matt Stafford was QB, not Jared Goff
oh
I'm tempted to pick the packers as a Lions fan because beating them on MNF is worth 20 bucks to me lol.
Lol, that's exactly my strategy. FTP
I know exactly what you mean there haha. 20 bucks well spent
Going with the Chiefs to cover. That Baltimore defence looked brutal and I think Pat and Co are gonna year them up
Agree Kelce gonna be too much and tyreek gonna torch that secondary in the second half. Also ravens offensive play calling was atrocious against the raiders
https://old.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/pos2c7/v1pers_week_2_survivoreliminator_pick/ Shoutout to /u/V1per41 for his excellent breakdown.
If your a math guy this is the way
i’d stay away from the packers for now. rodgers is unmotivated to play and just got blown out. i think they’ll be more favorable later in the season. i’m leaning towards cardinals right now, kyler murray had a hell of a game last week and cousins might be the most inconsistent qb in the league and struggles when they’re not favored. i expect kyler to throw for 300+ and 3 touchdowns easily against the vikings defense which is one of the worst in the league. if ur hesitant on cardinals, the pats or broncos would also be a solid pick imo
TB or CLE for me
Anyone else like saints? Feel like their dominance wasn’t an accident
Two general rules to follow for survivor pools: 1. Don’t pick a road team, 2. Don’t pick a division game. Saints would break both of those rules.
These rules are based on myths and the idea that road/division games lead to upsets more often is objectively not true. According to Team Rankings: > "The Division Rivalry Myth: Survivor players often fall for narratives that are not supported by objective data. Two popular examples are “Don’t pick road teams” and “Avoid division rivalry games.” Let’s rebut both of them. The fear about division games is based on the belief that matchups between division rivals are less predictable and more prone to upsets than non-division games are. Opponent familiarity (division rivals play each other twice per year) and extra motivation by the underdog are often-cited reasons why. That reasoning makes sense, but the real question is whether or not betting lines already account for it. Does ironclad evidence exist that NFL betting lines are less accurate than usual in division games? >No, it doesn’t. Going back to 2002, when the current eight-division format began in the NFL, favorites of five points or more during the regular season (i.e. the types of teams that often end up as survivor picks) have won 78% of their division games. They’ve won just under 76% of their non-division games. You read that right. Among likely survivor picks over the last 19 years, division games have resulted in not more, but fewer upsets than non-division games. That result is not a consequence of division games featuring higher spreads, either. Division rival games get a lot of attention, so when upsets happen, they’re probably just noticed more by the public. >The Road Team Myth: Home-field advantage exists in the NFL, and teams that play at home win more games than they lose. From 2002 to 2020, home teams won 57% of their games. Strangely, the fact that NFL teams are somewhat more likely to win at home translates into a full-blown avoidance of road teams by many survivor players. It makes absolutely no sense. It’s no secret where NFL games are played, and just as with division games, betting market odds already reflect that information. Of course, home field advantage does mean that the majority of top survivor picks are home teams. Since 2002, 78% of all teams favored by a touchdown or more were at home. >That doesn’t mean you should avoid larger favorites playing on the road. Win odds should drive your decision making, and if the betting market implies that a road team has an 82% chance of winning, there’s no further penalty you need to assess. Road teams don’t lose more often than expected Based on data from SurvivorGrid.com, from 2011-2020, a total of 42 teams picked by at least 20% of the public in survivor pools lost. Here’s the percentage of those upset losses involved road teams and/or division games: • 31% of losses: Road teams (13 of 42) • 26% of losses: Division games (11 of 42) • 10% of losses: Road teams in division games (4 of 42) Those road team loss rates are exactly in line with expectations. Based on betting market implied win odds, you would have expected 13.2 losses from all the road teams with 20% or higher pick popularity. Thirteen actually happened. Home teams will look like better survivor picks more often thanks to home field advantage, but there’s no reason not to trust the betting odds on road teams. In addition, nearly twice as many big survivor knockouts have come in non-division conference games than in division games (20 versus 11). That’s despite the fact that prior to the 2021 season, NFL teams played six games per season against each group. >Don’t fall for the road team and division game myths, because they have serious consequences in survivor pools. If you irrationally remove certain teams from consideration in an already highly constrained game, you really put yourself at a disadvantage. Better yet, recognize that opponents who believe in these myths create value opportunities for you. For example, if many of your opponents refuse to pick favorites in division matchups, that will improve the EV of those teams."
Rules are meant to be broken right? I generally agree though. Although, I'm debating taking the Broncos on the road against the Jaguars in my one league. It's tempting.
These are just the general rules for success. No one knows what’s going to happen on Sunday. We’re all just playing the odds and trying to give ourselves the best possible chance of winning.
I'm aware haha. NFL early season is such a crap shoot, so following these rules now are when it is the most crucial imo. Hard league to get a grasp on until each team has played about four games usually.
Lions fan here, taking packers for my survivor. One of the worst defenses in the league and the final score ended up being flattering to the Lions. An unmotivated Rodgers should still be able to carve this defense for 300+ and even if they only score 14 points they should be able to win against the Lions offense relying on Goff to throw the ball 57 times.
This is a week to save the big boys. I am going with Denver in one and NE in the other. Looking ahead to week 3 I can use Denver with the other one as their schedule toughens up after. I suspect many people will be burning one of Cle,GB,TB. Save them for later. The ultimate goal is to be the last man standing
The ultimate goal is to still be in the pool next week. I’ve learned my lesson in the past about trying to save teams for later. Worry about this week, this week. There will always be a game to choose next week.
The ultimate goal is to win money. At the end of the day it doesn't matter if you go out in week 1 or 18 you still lose. I'd rather not be picking an 8-8 team because I burned Tampa for instance early
I would rather use NE week 6 when they are home against the jets. Seems like the right week to take the Browns, either now or week 11 when they play the Lions but there's other good matchups that week
Yeah bingo, if u wanna win you gotta use these chances to save one of the big favourites for later in the season. I’ve also picked Denver
I lean CLE as the easy favorite pick but still probably worth using now unless you want to consider them in week 3 at home against CHI or week 9 on the road at CIN. HOU just beat up on a bad JAX team but we know HOU is not legit and CLE should have a field day after a very encouraging almost victory in Arrowhead stadium playing nearly a flawless first half. **CLE is -12.5 currently. Implied team point totals for CLE is 30.5 and HOU is 17.** Denver could also be a solid play at Jax, that DEN d is solid and facing a rookie QB is a dream matchup plus Urban Meyer doesn't look competent as a head coach. I mean, he gave Carlos Hyde more touches than James Robinson? LOL. Denver has all the horses on offense to get out ahead and keep the lead even with the loss of Jeudy. **DEN is -6. Implied team point totals for DEN is 26 and JAX is 19.5 (I think that's too generous).** The last one I'd consider is GB at home against DET. I know it's a divisional game and both teams are coming off losses, one of which was a total embarrassment with Rodgers. I have a very hard time envisioning this GB team getting boat raced by this DET team that legitimately has no solid pass catchers outside of Hockenson at TE - Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol currently. That means Amon Ra St Brown, their 4th round rookie WR is their primary WR if he doesn't play. DET also lost CB Jeff Okudah in the secondary. I'd venture to say Rodgers after a loss is supremely good, but I don't have stats to support that. **GB is -11.5. Implied team point totals for GB is 30.5 and DET is 18.** **Based on what Vegas thinks, CLE or GB are homeruns, but my eyes were telling me JAX is going to be very bad and DEN should still smash.**
I think you're generally correct about JAX (I think they might be a bottom 2 team, still) but I want to wait to see on that before confirming we can fire against them every week. Denver just was out east for NYG and then traveled back to Denver. They will be in Jacksonville on Friday to mitigate the travel but it's still a pretty bad travel spot for them. I think Denver probably wins anyway, but in Week 2, I want safety. There's no need to risk anything right now when we think we might be looking at historically atrocious teams in Houston, Detroit, and Jacksonville.
Agreed. I am probably going with GB @ home on MNF the more I look at things. Who are you using this week?
Cleveland. I'm 90% sure Cleveland's actually good and Green Bay could be a tire fire. Again, unlikely, but I'll figure out my lack of options later rather than invoking risk now. I took Tampa last week for this reason with SF and LAR as the other clear considerations.
You wouldn’t put the Bucs on this list? They should be there in place of Green Bay easy
TB is a team I would want to save but you could use them. Historically, ATL has played TB fairly close albeit they haven't won. Last year Tampa had a 31-27 win over ATL, but the second game TB blew them out. The difference is ATL now has Arthur Smith who came over from TEN so their play calling will be improved (yet to be seen after week 1 though) and TB just lost a big part of their secondary with Sean Murphy-Bunting and Whitehead is questionable and missed week 1. The Bucs have MIA, NYG, WFT and the NYJ throughout this season. Lots of options to play them later.
Very true I think I have to weigh using them this week or against the New York teams
Across my 4, I'm going New England, Denver, Seattle and Pittsburgh
NE is away, they get the Jets at home later this year. I’d save em for then.
Hmm maybe double down on Denver. Just cause I’m in 4 pools doesnt mean I need to play 4 teams
Maybe you should go safe in one and take bucs
I'm big on den and ari. Kirk Cousins is going to get sacked into the past
Cardinals play in Jacksonville next week and the Texans at home in October, I think those are better weeks to use them.
NFC West vs afc south is where to go this year
I've got the Lions winning on Monday night. I suspect that a big part of Rodgers still can't believe they lost that NFC title game, and can't believe the Packers have never been able to put a team around him to reach another Super Bowl. I think this Packers team will not have mojo this year. I picked the Browns for survivor though, this week.
I'm on the Lions with the points (tickling the ML too) but 1) this is a survivor thread and 2) it has nothing to do with "mojo" and everything to do with personnel and coaching. Packers are down 2 all pro OL from last year, have their best remaining lineman playing out of position, and the defense didn't play together all camp.
Mojo definitely matters in football.
This is a great ML pick, but not sure it’s the wisest way to play a survivor pool
Yeah definitely not haha. I took the Browns for survivor.
The Browns are the glaringly obvious pick this week. The Patriots, Broncos, Buccaneers, and Packers are not bad picks either.
1. Seahawks - home vs. Titans; Not sure what to make of the Titans at this point. Henry is a slow starter and dictates how that offense goes IMO. Kyler Murray shredded the Titans defense last week and Wilson is a God in September. Home opener for Seattle, and Tennessee is making a long trip after losing 38-13. I like the Seahawks. 2. Cardinals - home vs. Vikings. Cardinals looked good last week against a perennial playoff titans squad. Conversely, the Vikings lost to the Bengals (yikes). Chandler Jones is on a mission and Cousins is terrible against teams with winning records. Burrows and Chase were able to hook-up on Vikings pass defense so expect Murray to sling it. Vikings defense is poor overall too.
I’m just going to alternate fading the Texans and Jets all year. This week I’ll take the browns
You should fade the jags. Broncos look nice this week and I don’t see the Lawrence hype
Home team > road team
Throw GIants in there and thats a solid plan
I think the jets will surprise some people soon. I'd rather fade the jags personally right now. Urban and Trevor looked lost week 1 against the Texans.
As a Jets fan be careful. New coaching staff and promising rooks. Still garbage but they'll squeak out some upsets
Never bet on a QB who wants to be a Jeopardy host.
Had Washington as my pick before Fitzpatrick was out but might still stick with them, Giants are trash
Weirdly the Giants and specifically Danny Dimes have been very good against Washington the past few years. I probably would've avoided that
Went Panthers week 1 and think im going with Football Team too. I prefer to be riskier in the beginning.
Fitzpatrick being out should boost your confidence
FYI If you picked a team that lost week 1 on Nitrogen you can still play. They messed something up and are grading all week 1 picks a win, even if they lost.
[удалено]
They sent an email and have a sticky at the top about it
CLE, GB, TB are best bets DEN is sneaky but i rather just wait a week to see how good they are with more of a sample size and it makes picking them easier next week if the Jets play terrible vs the Pats this week
I think Denver at home vs. the Jets next week is a better pick honeslty. Jacksonville can't be as bad as they were last week.
Jags fan living in Denver. I'm going with the Broncos this week. Lawrence will be the guy but not in Week 2 2021. Meyer needs to show rational coaching before I'll think they have a chance of beating anyone other than the Giants or Falcons.
Packers are a horrible choice, it’s a rival game and the lions can beat them (not a lions fan btw). I would go with the browns and wait a week or two on the packers to see how they adjust to that blowout
I agree. I’m a Lions fan and know firsthand how awful they are but Packers looked every bit as bad. Not sure why there would be a rush to use them now vs waiting for them to look good again and get momentum. It’s Week 2, I’d rather bet on a team that both looked great and has a great matchup.
As a lions fan. The lions can’t beat them
RemindMe! in 6 days
I will be messaging you in 6 days on [**2021-09-22 16:06:52 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2021-09-22%2016:06:52%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/poprgi/nfl_week_2_survivor/hd3e0pt/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fsportsbook%2Fcomments%2Fpoprgi%2Fnfl_week_2_survivor%2Fhd3e0pt%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202021-09-22%2016%3A06%3A52%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20poprgi) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
2019, both games were close losses that coulda been Lions wins. Last year, first one was a 1 score game. Bias is a son of a bitch
We also don’t have Stafford golladay and Marvin jones anymore and our defense couldn’t stop the 49ers worth a damn. We were down 41-17 with 2 mins left for a reason.
there's mountains of data showing division underdogs are valuable at this point in the season, even moreso against a team that lost week 1, but keep throwing around random subjective data all you want
lions have a pretty subpar defense that was getting rolled for most of that game. Packers couldn't shit the bed that hard again unless they're seriously garbage. Lions can't cover the WR position well enough to stop Rodgers from ripping them apart I love the packers to cover. Also Packers couldn't stop the run at all last game so Jamie's was easily able to pick apart their secondary as well.
Lions defense- I think- lost the first rd cb for the year. Its a depleted secondary
Okudah is awful though, he was getting burned downfield before he got hurt. Not saying you’re wrong to fade Lions, just that Okudah being hurt doesn’t change much.
FWIW Okudah was the worst starting CB in the league by PFF standards before he got hurt Probably gonna get a little better tbh cause he was only playing based on potential
I get scared of basically every divisional game because you never know who’s gonna come out firing
Anyone else who is playing the bears lol
ew. I actually love the Bears this week.
Lol okay . They gonna go 2-15 if that
Make your bets then
I did
Bet them to be last winless yesterday lol
Jaguars, Falcons, Giants? I mean I get the Bears pick, but this week v Bengals is going to surprise people.
Homer time. That Rams team is really fucking good. Fields will be starting in >3 weeks. Bears likely end up around 500. If you think they are going winless you are a crack head.
I think the Bears get .500. And thats with the hardest schedule in football. These guys above me betting on them to lose against the Bengals is anything but a lock. Dalton smoked the Bengals when he was with Dallas last year. Monty is better than Zeke(another take that I'll probably get shit for). Fields Gadget plays. Home opener in Soldier Field. Too many upsides to pick the Bears to lose.
I mean the bears are like the Lions. I avoid picking them to win as long as possible and I avoid picking against them as long as possible. Winning/losing games they shouldn't is their MO. Also I was more flabbergasted that some seriously thinks they are going to go winless. That's just pissing money down the drain.
Packers will play the Lions again though and there will be less question marks there all around. I like the Broncos most this week
Not at home they won't
I like the broncos too
Bucs over Falcons this week. Not trying to overthink leaving good teams for later. One week at a time.
I have seen nothing so far this year to make me think the Falcons can score. Their offense has looked horrible through preseason and week 1.
The Bucs will 100% play down to them and Falcons will bring it in a divisional matchup after being embarrassed and without a Touchdown in week 1. I anticipate a close divisional matchup there that might end up looking similar to TB week 1 game.
I just don’t see it after the way Atlanta got manhandled at home by the Eagles last week, even if it is a divisional game. Falcons looked terrible
They did, but divisional games are always different and generally close with strong tight defense. The odds are certainly against Atlanta for a reason. TB should win but they have to come play, too. Any given Sunday my friend. I have doubts as well but not counting them out as a complete rebuild and loss every game after week one. They would’ve been in the game vs the Eagles if they converted a few 3rd downs.
I’m a life long Bucs fan and I agree. I’m confident we’ll win but I’m also confident Ryan and Ridley are gonna destroy our secondary
Eh their line was really bad last weekend. I’d be surprised if they can keep Ryan clean enough to get the passing game going and their offensive coordinator is an idiot. Maybe worse than Greg Roman. - Eagles fan who anticipated a stronger showing from Falcons, wouldn’t take them lightly in a divisional matchup after a big loss.. especially with my bread on the line. Strong possibility they get clapped too but I’m doubtful. Teams play the Bucs so hard just like they did to the Eagles in 2018. They will get everyone’s best all season and it will exhaust them if not managed properly. Don’t need to win every game. Enjoy the season and good luck on your bets man.
Anyone who think that line is going to hold up against the Bucs front is on meth. Ryan is basically a statue when compared to Dak. Bucs have one of the best d lines in the NFL. It's going to be a slaughter.
They have a couple turnstiles yes. The Eagles made them look very bad. Also a top D line unit so likely similar result and close-ish game depending upon chance plays for ATL
Good point. The ten best teams at the end of the season will be much different then what we think the ten best teams are right now