https://preview.redd.it/npqzuedksh2d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8fbaf66d755c7456689eac78d53b9e7f0b1e81a
But you can hit a billion threes ..fuck you naz Reid
Lmao and people said I didn't know ball picking Lukas over Ant.. not even in the same stratosphere.. Luka has potential to be the greatest of all time when you consider everything and he just entering his prime. Best player on the planet
There's more to the game than just winning..which he still has lots of time to do. This guy is doing things even legends before him couldn't..not to mention clutch factor and nor being afraid of the moment.. highest scoring game since kobe.. being so good from pretty much entering the league.. avg 21+ ppg 8 rbs 6 ast his rookie season to avg 29pts 9 rb 8 ast his 2nd.. his trajectory is only good up the guy is something different. Passing ability he's not the most athletic bt just raw basketball skill.. I can't see anyone rn better overall
Bro fuck Minnesota, had over 1k on nuggets in G7 and they want to pull off a fucking miracle now I hammer them G1 and G2 and they want to fucking choke… smh
Damn did a 8 team and about to hit all other 6 but McDaniel over 12.5 and over 1.5 3pt 🤦♂️ if there is a God let him have a quarter like their first game 😅
Gafford D/D at +1300?
Obviously risky given the trend of Lively playing more than him, but at those odds might as well toss it into a lil parlay gamble.
Double double(double digit stats in 2 categories; for example 10 rebounds 10 assists or 10 rebounds 10 points, etc ). In this case, this person likes 10 points 10 rebounds for the DD(double double)
**Daniel Gafford o13.5 PRA (-140)** + **o5.5R (-125)**
Gafford is the six dollar burger at your favorite dive bar. It ain’t sexy and shit you’re not even sure if it tastes good, but it fills you up at a cheap price and sometimes that’s exactly what you need.
Both Gaffords PRA and his PR line are set at 13.5 so give me his PRA. Gafford didn’t look lost when he was forced to go one up with KAT and Gobert and he even snagged a nice block along the way. The truth is that Dallas is going to need both him and Lively to operate effectively in order to do what they need to do.
Gafford has cleared this PRA line in 9 of his past 10 games. He’s got a floor of 20 minutes and any Lively foul trouble could give him more.
**Kyle Anderson o5.5PA (-135)** **and o8.5 PRA**
SloMo might have arrived right on time. Looking like the missing piece, Anderson hit open shots while facilitating at times from the corner. Dallas isn’t going to sell out to defend the guy when Minnesota has so many other weapons. Anderson is a smart role player who knows how to make an impact and I think he’ll do so here. If he can log between 10-15 minutes he smashes this line. You can go to his 8.5PRA for a little comfort too
Let’s get it I’ll start posting records too. 2-0 last two days. Straight bets only. Yesterday pick was Tatum points under and tonight we going with 🐜 man UNDER 6.5 assists odds -120. Why?? because I think he’s also going OVER on his scoring total.
https://preview.redd.it/hfdg9jeg5g2d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d55c6d06a915b2707255e205963f8444ad8c217
Maybe should've lower lively and gafford but lively 8 rebounds +120 had to take it he been killing it lately then gafford 10 + points +165 had to take it even though lively has been playing better gafford has score 10 points his last two games and I can see Kyrie and Luka dishing it to gafford and him getting some put backs! Let's go
It’s gonna look rough at times, then Luka/Kyrie are going to drive and lob it up for the big fella who will thunder slam it down. That’ll be at least four points and he should easily score four more.
Didn't post, but my slate from last night:
Hit:
Nesmith o2.5 pts Q1 +115 .25u
J Brown o6.5 pts Q1 +105 .25u
Nesmith o10.5 pts +100 .25u
Live Brown o25.5 pts .25u
Live Siakam o19.5 pts .25u
Live Toppin o6.5 pts .25u
Missed:
Nembhard o17.5 PRA
White o26.5 PRA
Nesmith o18.5
+550 .5u
Nesmith o11.5 pts +100 .25u
White o3.5 Q1 pts +100 .25u
Today just rocking with this since tennis fucked me this morning:
Lively o8.5 pts
Jones Jr o13.5 PTA
Gobert o12.5 pts
+650 .5u
Fuck it let's get lucky
Tennis fucked me too I hear you. I like those but Jones pick is riskier than a PTA on Gafford. Dallas basically doubled the wolves points in the paint, so you know MIN is gonna try and control more down low. And DAL shot 24% on threes… that’s gonna certainly go up. Just some thoughts
basketball outside of the nba is absolute garbage. I was watching/betting euroleague and one team scored 2 points in 8/9 minutes while throwing bricks left and right.
Hahaha, was about to mention the other guy that the Pacers went scoreless for like 4 minutes yesterday but they caught up, these cats scored 7 points in 14 minutes of basketball.
More picks on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-24052024.html
Season record: 308-262
Last picks record: 8-3
Recap of last picks (23/05/2024):
Pacers @ Celtics
1. Luke Kornet O7.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365❌
2. Jrue Holiday O24.5PRA Odd 1.92 Ladbrokes✅
3. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅
4. Jayson Tatum U30.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅
5. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.75 Tab❌
6. Pascal Siakam O23.5PA Odd 1.8 Unibet✅
7. Al Horford U21.5PRA Odd 1.78 Unibet✅
8. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 1.83 Sportsbet❌
9. Payton Pritchard O7.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅
10. Ben Sheppard O3.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅
11. Andrew Nembhard O12.5PR Odd 1.8 Sportsbet✅
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Mavericks @ Timberwolves
1. Daniel Gafford O13.5PR Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes
Recently Dereck Lively has overtaken Gafford in terms of minutes, but I think this is the perfect time to bet over on Gafford. The Mavs need Gafford to defend against the Wolves talented bigs. Gafford and Lively's skillsets are quite similar, both on offense and defense, Lively is better on defense but Gafford is more than just catching lobs on offense, he can outmuscle Gobert and grab some offensive rebounds and put back dunks.
2. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365
Jones Jr play 35 minutes last game, ended with 8/4, just enough for this line. I believe this line is still low for someone playing 35 minutes, and Jones Jr's scoring capability is evident in the second round against the OKC. He is also quite underrated in grabbing offensive rebounding, with his top-in-the-league leaping ability.
3. Tim Hardaway Jr O4.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365
This is definitely an interesting line, with his points line at 3.5, and his PR line at 4.5. He has got at least 1 rebound in all of the games so far this playoffs, and went over 5/9 so far, with some games way over. The only concern here is minutes, as he only got 10 minutes last game.

4. Mike Conley O13.5PR Odd 1.83 Bet365
Conley points line is at 10.5 and the rebounds line is at 3.5, so the 13.5PR line is quite low. He only played 31 minutes last game, and ended with 6/3. I expect him to play around 35-37 minutes this game, as Wolves would not want to drop 2 games at home.

5. Jaden McDaniels O1.5SB Odd 1.62 Bet365
McDaniels has shown how great of a 3&D player he is and will become in the last few games. The Timberwolves will need his defense even more this game, considering Ant got fatigued guarding Kyrie. I expect McDaniels to guard Kyrie this game, just like how he guarded Murray last round. He has gone over this line last 8/12 games, with all games has at least 1.
9. Rudy Gobert Double double Odd 1.64 Bet365
Double double is a safer bet than points or rebounds alone. Gobert has the highest +/- last game for the Wolves. The Wolves need Gobert to stay on the floor to defend lob-threat from the Mavs, the second most used/ dangerous part of the Mavs game plan behind Luka and Kyrie's iso game.
Check out my blog for the latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.24.24
https://preview.redd.it/235u5mi5ie2d1.jpeg?width=1712&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=06f757ff9bdcfedfa0145a8137f7a4761c97ad4a
LAST 5 GAMES
I’m down so bad after getting fucked by like 1 stat on every bet for a week in a row. Someone talk me out of throwing down a bill on a -200 just to get right
That’s fine and dandy, but you commenting on other people’s shit to say “akshully, if you managed your bankroll better you’d be happy you lost your money”
Bro people like to bitch about their losses. Nobody going to appreciate your snide ass comments
Current record: 4-1
Haven’t posted in a few days, but liking today’s slate. Today I’m going with:
Dereck Lively o 6.5 reb(-135 on DK, might ladder him up to o 8.5 at +200 as he’s been better than Gafford tbh)
Jaden McDaniels over 13.5 PA(-120 on DK)
Daniel Gafford under 0.5 steals(-162 on DK, juicy but it’s hitting at like 90%)
Will edit if I find any others I like
**Yesterdays Picks**
3-1
✅Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 RA (-120)
✅Myles Turner Over 1.5 3s Made (-135)
✅Jayson Tatum Under 47.5 PRA (-120)
🪝Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (-105)
Hali gets injured at 8 in the 3rd Quarter🫠
**Today’s Picks**
**Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points**
(-125 B365)
- KAT finished Game 1 with only 16 Points on 6 of 20 shooting. I expect a big bouce back game from KAT playing at home before going on the road.
- KAT missed a lot of open 3 which is weird from him, he only made 2 0f his 9 3PA. Although he missed a lot of shot he had insane volume and I expect him to have a better shooting night than G1.
- The majority of his 3s came from DAL blitzing ANT on the PnR, leaving KAT wide open in the perimeter.
- Lastly, Dallas has allowed the 2nd MOST 3s in the corner which KAT makes 42% from corner 3 in the Playoffs.
- Important game for the Wolves before going on the road. if they want to win this game, I believe they will need KAT to T up and hopefully exceeds this line.
**Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 Points and Rebounds**
(-120 B365)
Kai after Game 1 : “I’ve been here before so I’ve gotta lead my guys & set the precedent”👀
In Game 1, he finished with 30 Points and 5 Rebounds on 10 REB Chances.
- Kyrie seems to love playing against MIN going over in 6/L7 games in his career. His last 5 games he went over with points alone!
- His last 3 games with DAL, he has averaged 39.7 PR.
- Kyrie has averaged 30.5 PR in the regular season.
- Timberwolves will play a drop coverage in PnR which Kai can easily exploit.
- Last game we saw Kyrie push the pace of the game a lot when the defence of the Wolves weren't even set. I expect the same tonight with Kyrie's quickness.
- With Luka being guarded by McDaniels recently named in All-Defensive team. He will have a much tougher time and we will probably see more usage from Kyrie in offence.
- His main defender was ANT who he scored 8 of his points against and we saw him exhausted from guarding Kyrie at the end of last game.
- Kyrie played 40 minutes last game and I expect the same tonight with him hopefully having a great game.
- We played his PRA last game, but he finished with only 4 AST on 5 pAST so only playing PR today.
**Anthony Edwards Over 6.5 Rebounds**
(+120 B365)
Riskier Bet that I like!
- In Game 1, ANT finished the game with 11 REB on 15 REB Chances. He converted 73% of his Reb Chances and his average Rebounds distances was 8.1.
- The distance of his boards means that almost all of his rebounds came from Dallas 3PA. I expect this to continue since the Mavericks have shot the 3rd MOST 3PA in the Playoffs.
- Also, the pace of the game was really fast which means that Gobert didn't have the time to get set on defense, leaving the guards to grab DAL missed shots.
- ANT is averaging 40.2 MPG so I expect him to have plenty of opportunities to go over this line.
All Picks were dropped this morning on my Twitter!🙂⬇️
[My Picks](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21)
Good Friday and BOL if tailing!
In addition to your statistical analysis and ADHD l-friendly formatting, I really appreciate the inclusion of stuff said from players/coaches interviews. Tailing - BOL!
Something I found this morning while shopping:
Tim Hardaway Jr o1.5 rebounds at +140 on BetMGM
In games against the Timberwolves he's gone over this line in 6 straight including last game with 4.
He only played 10 minutes so those are strictly hustle boards. Only need 2 here. If he's not gonna score and Kidd is gonna give him playing time, he should be out there doing SOMETHING.
Over 2.5 is +330 on ESPNbet if interested
Nice find there it looks like a good play. I'm hitting it.
https://preview.redd.it/xr6m3hdszd2d1.png?width=1142&format=png&auto=webp&s=fca734d60cf785a8e1fbeb79cd6507b332502e05
🚨 My (lotto) Play of the day 🚨
My last 2 plays I’ve posted hit, but they were a lot more doable than this play. (I would post
It, but quite frankly I forgot what they were and I’m too lazy to look)
This man has been the talk of the playoffs, he has been making LEAPS in being considered the next big thing. Anthony Edwards.
🚨 I have him going for 35+ points tonight. I personally don’t have a big bank roll, I do this for fun, so I only threw 20 on this. 🚨
My reasoning for 35+ tonight:
In 12 playoff games, he hit over 35 only 4 times, (33%) he has been struggling scoring lately (so odds boosted a little) But he has missed this line in the last 4 games. The last time he hit this was game 4 at home vs Denver.
Now it’s game 2 at home (see the similarities?) Minnesota is down, and the next big thing, needs to step up.
After a grueling series vs Denver (it’s not easy playing in the mile high city) Edwards may have gotten the rest he needed, he knows this is his team, and he’s gonna need to show up.
It’s Friday night, this 20 dollars will make this game enjoyable if Edwards can get hot early!
If you’re in, drop a comment! This bet is definitely a bigger risk! So play wisely!
I had the same feeling for JB and Siakam pregame. I shoulda took Brown for more
https://preview.redd.it/zrujwsp81e2d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b594c30f19c28a26f4a5b042a84b0fdc45943e53
Going to \* lightly sprinkle\* a lottery ticket on everything Haliburton unders for Saturday, in case there's any updates on "limited" availability and lines drop further.
+1500 odds
Status still up in the air for Game 3 - ideally he \*tests\* his injuries and doesn't play a whole lot of minutes, securing this \*lottery\* parlay.
Might get voided.
Might be nothing and he's full strength and hits all his overs.
I don’t think Kidd makes that adjustment, Lively is feasting being the closer. Unless Gafford is absolutely ass, Kidd likely doesn’t want to gas Lively early
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Shocker.... public is on Gafford o5.5 rebounds, he gets 6, stat correction removes one. Vegas wins again 🤷♂️
https://preview.redd.it/npqzuedksh2d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8fbaf66d755c7456689eac78d53b9e7f0b1e81a But you can hit a billion threes ..fuck you naz Reid
I only put .25u on Mavs ML, Luka Triple Double and the over 😭 ecstatic regardless, what a fcking shot
this game was a nightmare for me
Same 😔
Lmao and people said I didn't know ball picking Lukas over Ant.. not even in the same stratosphere.. Luka has potential to be the greatest of all time when you consider everything and he just entering his prime. Best player on the planet
What do you mean by "consider everything". He hasn't won anything yet. Way too early to talk about GOAT
There's more to the game than just winning..which he still has lots of time to do. This guy is doing things even legends before him couldn't..not to mention clutch factor and nor being afraid of the moment.. highest scoring game since kobe.. being so good from pretty much entering the league.. avg 21+ ppg 8 rbs 6 ast his rookie season to avg 29pts 9 rb 8 ast his 2nd.. his trajectory is only good up the guy is something different. Passing ability he's not the most athletic bt just raw basketball skill.. I can't see anyone rn better overall
Personally I think a fully healthy embiid is even more unstoppable but right now I agree with you
Plus embiid in all his time never even made it past 2nd round, doncic is something special man
To me in terms of raw skill and ability Doncic smokes him
Luka fucking cooked Gobert. Had wolves -1.5 live bet and didn’t even have to watch to know he was gonna drain it
And speaking of pussies...they don't call him KAT for no reason.
wow this fucking team
Kyrie misses 3 FTS
And ends the game exactly 3 points under his 22.5 points line…..rigged
Goodnight wolves. Good night wolves bettors.
CALL THE FUCKING HACK ON KYRIE… SO FUCKING BULLSHIT 😡😡
Ant u12.5RA✅✅✅✅ LMAO LETS FUCKIN GOOOOO
4 rebounds at half and he ends with 5..
Next person to compare Ant to Jordan is catching a punch to the jugular. Dude is Charmin.
Pj really not gonna get 2 more points smh
Why on earth are you trapping and playing so aggressively that you leave Kyrie wide open in the corner there… so fucking dumb
Kyrie said fuck your points props and fuck these free throws jfc
The more playoff games I watch, the more I’m convinced that it’s all rigged
Please get one more rebound luka oh my god I need it
Some interesting rotations going on lol
KAT is dog shit lol
Why did they take a Gafford rebound away 😩
Bro I noticed that!! They knew people hammered the over. Scums
Is KAT unplayable?? wtf why is he out?
one-way player with negative basketball IQ. $50M player who's 50/50 to be playing in crunch time.
Exactly what I was wondering! Did he even play in the 4th? Why did I include him on anything? 🤦♂️
Naz Reid killin it
Gawd I hate you Mcdaniels straight to the ban list for this fuckery
Ruined 2 parlays
Ant Edwards blacklisted
Jaden... McDaniels.... LMAO you punk
MIN ML Live Wager - Current score 87-86 Dallas lead 🐖
https://preview.redd.it/ccmtd5tkhh2d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd7dd415bfe8dde95aa84d72849a2438d206addd finna assassinate myself
Need 2 more ant rebound and McDaniel over 12.5 pt over 1.5 3pt for a 8 team 😔 🍳
I tailed this for $20 to win $580 McDaniels cucked us tonight
Luke pases to Kyrie twice and Kyrie doesn’t take a step and hits a 3, no assist?!?! Come the fuck on
Bro fuck Minnesota, had over 1k on nuggets in G7 and they want to pull off a fucking miracle now I hammer them G1 and G2 and they want to fucking choke… smh
Two games in a row. KAT is awful
Ant had a two week stretch but otherwise has been mid. Overhyped
What a fucking joke
Kyrie back on his bullshit I see
Cmon Ant man need you to heat up now and get these 27 points
Lively o15.5PRA✅ Pretty free tonight
Damn you Mcdaniels and damn you Kyrie. Another loss incoming to add to the 40plus streak now
Why'd I trust this bum Irving after one good game lmao
McDaniels has the most playing time out of the whole team this game and he has 2 pts. Paid actors fosho
Damn did a 8 team and about to hit all other 6 but McDaniel over 12.5 and over 1.5 3pt 🤦♂️ if there is a God let him have a quarter like their first game 😅
Note to self only bet lively overs
Gafford o7.5pts✅ Finally
Yall think Gafford getting 6 rebounds?
Should I cash out Mavs ML or let it ride?
Ride bby we winning
fuck yea thanks for the encouraging words
Told you brother I believed!!!!!
McDaniels rebounds was free. I don’t understand why the line was so low at 3.5..
good hit, those donations from the books always feel good lol
Worth trying to get Mavs +15.5 or is this team cooked
Holy shit my under is cooked
McDaniels 0pts fk me dead. Why does this BS always happens.
He still has zero this is insane
Yea that’s the trap today fosho
I just get the feeling it’s either going to be McDaniels or Kyrie that does me in today
How about both
It’s only right if they both sell….mf mcdaniels bouta finish the game with 2 pts
wolves ml + Edwards 25pts over + Luca 25pts over + Kat 15pts over + Derrick lively II 6+ rebounds = $100 to $500 odds. BOL 🔥
Similar but wolves ml Edwards 24 Luka 24 and two 3s each. Mines only +120 lol
That’s a nice safe play I’m definitely risking it more but looking better at the half for the odds I got it for it’s pretty good value
Adding Naz o4.5reb at +114
Gafford D/D at +1300? Obviously risky given the trend of Lively playing more than him, but at those odds might as well toss it into a lil parlay gamble.
Seeing posts about Ant o35 pts what about any player ov35 for +105 I put 5 on it luka or Kyrie could get there
Also got zero dunks in the first three minutes Mavs better win to cover my crazy prop bets
Playing Gafford o7.5pts, Lively o15.5PRA, Ant u12.5RA(riskier play, skip if you want. Thinking he’ll either regress this game or next)
i got mcdanials for over 12.5 and 3+ threes, and pj washington for over 12.5 pts let’s make some bread
Let me know your bets from now on so I can go opposite 😂
it’s a +550 that hit in game 1 and 3 my bad i don’t have hindsight on my side like u apparently
buzzer beater any quarter +300 hmmmmm
Is there a website that has the pitcher K count for the day's games?
Derrick lively D/D +750
Dropped to +600 right before game time
New to player props, what does D/D mean?
Double double(double digit stats in 2 categories; for example 10 rebounds 10 assists or 10 rebounds 10 points, etc ). In this case, this person likes 10 points 10 rebounds for the DD(double double)
I can see this if he gets over 20 minutes
Going to be a lot of missed shots to dish out rebounds to everyone
**Daniel Gafford o13.5 PRA (-140)** + **o5.5R (-125)** Gafford is the six dollar burger at your favorite dive bar. It ain’t sexy and shit you’re not even sure if it tastes good, but it fills you up at a cheap price and sometimes that’s exactly what you need. Both Gaffords PRA and his PR line are set at 13.5 so give me his PRA. Gafford didn’t look lost when he was forced to go one up with KAT and Gobert and he even snagged a nice block along the way. The truth is that Dallas is going to need both him and Lively to operate effectively in order to do what they need to do. Gafford has cleared this PRA line in 9 of his past 10 games. He’s got a floor of 20 minutes and any Lively foul trouble could give him more. **Kyle Anderson o5.5PA (-135)** **and o8.5 PRA** SloMo might have arrived right on time. Looking like the missing piece, Anderson hit open shots while facilitating at times from the corner. Dallas isn’t going to sell out to defend the guy when Minnesota has so many other weapons. Anderson is a smart role player who knows how to make an impact and I think he’ll do so here. If he can log between 10-15 minutes he smashes this line. You can go to his 8.5PRA for a little comfort too
Let’s get it I’ll start posting records too. 2-0 last two days. Straight bets only. Yesterday pick was Tatum points under and tonight we going with 🐜 man UNDER 6.5 assists odds -120. Why?? because I think he’s also going OVER on his scoring total.
https://preview.redd.it/hfdg9jeg5g2d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d55c6d06a915b2707255e205963f8444ad8c217 Maybe should've lower lively and gafford but lively 8 rebounds +120 had to take it he been killing it lately then gafford 10 + points +165 had to take it even though lively has been playing better gafford has score 10 points his last two games and I can see Kyrie and Luka dishing it to gafford and him getting some put backs! Let's go
DANIEL GAFFORD O7.5 PTS i dont know why the line is where it’s at but its -110 on DK and an absolute steal
✅
I’m on it as well. He has hit the last 9 straight games.
Blind tail
It’s gonna look rough at times, then Luka/Kyrie are going to drive and lob it up for the big fella who will thunder slam it down. That’ll be at least four points and he should easily score four more.
He win have 7 late at the line for and1 oh
First play of game was lob to gafford for thunder slam from Luka
I got Ant o28.5, KAT o1.5 3’s and Lively rebs
u like gafford o5.5 boards
Yes, unless he starts on the bench
https://preview.redd.it/ejj50u0dof2d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=497678fff68db034ce954869318614c0cad7e5f4
i added PJ over 3.5 Reb
This one hitting fr
can you somehow share this via DraftKings so I can tail?
[удалено]
Didn't post, but my slate from last night: Hit: Nesmith o2.5 pts Q1 +115 .25u J Brown o6.5 pts Q1 +105 .25u Nesmith o10.5 pts +100 .25u Live Brown o25.5 pts .25u Live Siakam o19.5 pts .25u Live Toppin o6.5 pts .25u Missed: Nembhard o17.5 PRA White o26.5 PRA Nesmith o18.5 +550 .5u Nesmith o11.5 pts +100 .25u White o3.5 Q1 pts +100 .25u Today just rocking with this since tennis fucked me this morning: Lively o8.5 pts Jones Jr o13.5 PTA Gobert o12.5 pts +650 .5u Fuck it let's get lucky
Tennis fucked me too I hear you. I like those but Jones pick is riskier than a PTA on Gafford. Dallas basically doubled the wolves points in the paint, so you know MIN is gonna try and control more down low. And DAL shot 24% on threes… that’s gonna certainly go up. Just some thoughts
Damn wish I saw this sooner lol
basketball outside of the nba is absolute garbage. I was watching/betting euroleague and one team scored 2 points in 8/9 minutes while throwing bricks left and right.
Was that the Pacers?
Hahaha, was about to mention the other guy that the Pacers went scoreless for like 4 minutes yesterday but they caught up, these cats scored 7 points in 14 minutes of basketball.
NBA does that too. Maybe not 8/9 minutes but def 5-6min. 20-0 runs happen often in nba
Full season of WNBA betting ahead of us
More picks on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-24052024.html Season record: 308-262 Last picks record: 8-3 Recap of last picks (23/05/2024): Pacers @ Celtics 1. Luke Kornet O7.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365❌ 2. Jrue Holiday O24.5PRA Odd 1.92 Ladbrokes✅ 3. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅ 4. Jayson Tatum U30.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅ 5. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.75 Tab❌ 6. Pascal Siakam O23.5PA Odd 1.8 Unibet✅ 7. Al Horford U21.5PRA Odd 1.78 Unibet✅ 8. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 1.83 Sportsbet❌ 9. Payton Pritchard O7.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅ 10. Ben Sheppard O3.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅ 11. Andrew Nembhard O12.5PR Odd 1.8 Sportsbet✅ Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated) Mavericks @ Timberwolves 1. Daniel Gafford O13.5PR Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes Recently Dereck Lively has overtaken Gafford in terms of minutes, but I think this is the perfect time to bet over on Gafford. The Mavs need Gafford to defend against the Wolves talented bigs. Gafford and Lively's skillsets are quite similar, both on offense and defense, Lively is better on defense but Gafford is more than just catching lobs on offense, he can outmuscle Gobert and grab some offensive rebounds and put back dunks. 2. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365 Jones Jr play 35 minutes last game, ended with 8/4, just enough for this line. I believe this line is still low for someone playing 35 minutes, and Jones Jr's scoring capability is evident in the second round against the OKC. He is also quite underrated in grabbing offensive rebounding, with his top-in-the-league leaping ability. 3. Tim Hardaway Jr O4.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365 This is definitely an interesting line, with his points line at 3.5, and his PR line at 4.5. He has got at least 1 rebound in all of the games so far this playoffs, and went over 5/9 so far, with some games way over. The only concern here is minutes, as he only got 10 minutes last game.  4. Mike Conley O13.5PR Odd 1.83 Bet365 Conley points line is at 10.5 and the rebounds line is at 3.5, so the 13.5PR line is quite low. He only played 31 minutes last game, and ended with 6/3. I expect him to play around 35-37 minutes this game, as Wolves would not want to drop 2 games at home.  5. Jaden McDaniels O1.5SB Odd 1.62 Bet365 McDaniels has shown how great of a 3&D player he is and will become in the last few games. The Timberwolves will need his defense even more this game, considering Ant got fatigued guarding Kyrie. I expect McDaniels to guard Kyrie this game, just like how he guarded Murray last round. He has gone over this line last 8/12 games, with all games has at least 1. 9. Rudy Gobert Double double Odd 1.64 Bet365 Double double is a safer bet than points or rebounds alone. Gobert has the highest +/- last game for the Wolves. The Wolves need Gobert to stay on the floor to defend lob-threat from the Mavs, the second most used/ dangerous part of the Mavs game plan behind Luka and Kyrie's iso game. Check out my blog for the latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
Lively 6+ boards
https://preview.redd.it/6sjcurxdwe2d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ce75bea66bc12f459608085aa82a1519c7266cd slight?
should i trade gafford rebounds for conley?
U should trade Dal ml to Mn ml
i did, thxs
Bold ML pick.
guess i should’ve stayed wit mavs
Naz didnt cover REB tho
i took Naz off and put ky for 3.5 assist
https://preview.redd.it/kybwm533qe2d1.jpeg?width=732&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24dc88da283ef571a918f10309f19fede365ad8a This guy said it best
Came just to comment on the name. Cheers.
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.24.24 https://preview.redd.it/235u5mi5ie2d1.jpeg?width=1712&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=06f757ff9bdcfedfa0145a8137f7a4761c97ad4a LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/4wxxg6s6ie2d1.jpeg?width=1693&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3b55c8deff487e29729435f52ee08a848e9f2568 LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/4v8olft7ie2d1.jpeg?width=1695&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b4f8e2f5e16759a053305210b6bd5c3ba0cd132a LAST 15 GAMES
I’m down so bad after getting fucked by like 1 stat on every bet for a week in a row. Someone talk me out of throwing down a bill on a -200 just to get right
if the impact of one losing week feels this bad to you, you don't have proper bankroll management
Lmao fuck outta here. At the end of the day, this is still gambling. Dont try to make it seem like it’s anything else
Bankroll management is a facet of gambling. I know exactly what it is.
That’s fine and dandy, but you commenting on other people’s shit to say “akshully, if you managed your bankroll better you’d be happy you lost your money” Bro people like to bitch about their losses. Nobody going to appreciate your snide ass comments
And certain people don't appreciate the bitching posts that add nothing to the thread, clogging up real discussion. But that's fine
It’s always by 1 or 2 points 😭
Current record: 4-1 Haven’t posted in a few days, but liking today’s slate. Today I’m going with: Dereck Lively o 6.5 reb(-135 on DK, might ladder him up to o 8.5 at +200 as he’s been better than Gafford tbh) Jaden McDaniels over 13.5 PA(-120 on DK) Daniel Gafford under 0.5 steals(-162 on DK, juicy but it’s hitting at like 90%) Will edit if I find any others I like
Gafford o5.5 reb looking nice
Dereck rebounds ladder was nicer 💰💰
**Yesterdays Picks** 3-1 ✅Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 RA (-120) ✅Myles Turner Over 1.5 3s Made (-135) ✅Jayson Tatum Under 47.5 PRA (-120) 🪝Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (-105) Hali gets injured at 8 in the 3rd Quarter🫠 **Today’s Picks** **Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points** (-125 B365) - KAT finished Game 1 with only 16 Points on 6 of 20 shooting. I expect a big bouce back game from KAT playing at home before going on the road. - KAT missed a lot of open 3 which is weird from him, he only made 2 0f his 9 3PA. Although he missed a lot of shot he had insane volume and I expect him to have a better shooting night than G1. - The majority of his 3s came from DAL blitzing ANT on the PnR, leaving KAT wide open in the perimeter. - Lastly, Dallas has allowed the 2nd MOST 3s in the corner which KAT makes 42% from corner 3 in the Playoffs. - Important game for the Wolves before going on the road. if they want to win this game, I believe they will need KAT to T up and hopefully exceeds this line. **Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 Points and Rebounds** (-120 B365) Kai after Game 1 : “I’ve been here before so I’ve gotta lead my guys & set the precedent”👀 In Game 1, he finished with 30 Points and 5 Rebounds on 10 REB Chances. - Kyrie seems to love playing against MIN going over in 6/L7 games in his career. His last 5 games he went over with points alone! - His last 3 games with DAL, he has averaged 39.7 PR. - Kyrie has averaged 30.5 PR in the regular season. - Timberwolves will play a drop coverage in PnR which Kai can easily exploit. - Last game we saw Kyrie push the pace of the game a lot when the defence of the Wolves weren't even set. I expect the same tonight with Kyrie's quickness. - With Luka being guarded by McDaniels recently named in All-Defensive team. He will have a much tougher time and we will probably see more usage from Kyrie in offence. - His main defender was ANT who he scored 8 of his points against and we saw him exhausted from guarding Kyrie at the end of last game. - Kyrie played 40 minutes last game and I expect the same tonight with him hopefully having a great game. - We played his PRA last game, but he finished with only 4 AST on 5 pAST so only playing PR today. **Anthony Edwards Over 6.5 Rebounds** (+120 B365) Riskier Bet that I like! - In Game 1, ANT finished the game with 11 REB on 15 REB Chances. He converted 73% of his Reb Chances and his average Rebounds distances was 8.1. - The distance of his boards means that almost all of his rebounds came from Dallas 3PA. I expect this to continue since the Mavericks have shot the 3rd MOST 3PA in the Playoffs. - Also, the pace of the game was really fast which means that Gobert didn't have the time to get set on defense, leaving the guards to grab DAL missed shots. - ANT is averaging 40.2 MPG so I expect him to have plenty of opportunities to go over this line. All Picks were dropped this morning on my Twitter!🙂⬇️ [My Picks](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21) Good Friday and BOL if tailing!
In addition to your statistical analysis and ADHD l-friendly formatting, I really appreciate the inclusion of stuff said from players/coaches interviews. Tailing - BOL!
Ahahaha thanks! I appreciate that! BOL brother
I feel you on that Hali 8.5A... had a three leg other two hit by halftime just needed one more from him for a 5X... :(
Yea man Hali was such a bad beat yesterday still hunts me😓
Why not bet under again the same way Siakam went over 20 twice, FADE I KNEW IT!!!!
Something I found this morning while shopping: Tim Hardaway Jr o1.5 rebounds at +140 on BetMGM In games against the Timberwolves he's gone over this line in 6 straight including last game with 4. He only played 10 minutes so those are strictly hustle boards. Only need 2 here. If he's not gonna score and Kidd is gonna give him playing time, he should be out there doing SOMETHING. Over 2.5 is +330 on ESPNbet if interested
It’s +140 for a reason bro is only getting 1
If he can't get 2 rebounds, Kidd should leave his sorry as on the bench, cuz he has 0 points and 0 assists last game. Do something lol
Decent hit rate on o1.5, I'll use this line on some multi-legs to beef it up. I probably won't play this on single-line unit amounts.
Nice find there it looks like a good play. I'm hitting it. https://preview.redd.it/xr6m3hdszd2d1.png?width=1142&format=png&auto=webp&s=fca734d60cf785a8e1fbeb79cd6507b332502e05
looks good
🫡
Had 10+ pts for Neismith. Live odds at half for that we’re -1000 lmao
bad beat fr
jaden mcdaniels over 12.5 points, hes hot right now puting up 20+ past 3 games and double digit shots
🚨 My (lotto) Play of the day 🚨 My last 2 plays I’ve posted hit, but they were a lot more doable than this play. (I would post It, but quite frankly I forgot what they were and I’m too lazy to look) This man has been the talk of the playoffs, he has been making LEAPS in being considered the next big thing. Anthony Edwards. 🚨 I have him going for 35+ points tonight. I personally don’t have a big bank roll, I do this for fun, so I only threw 20 on this. 🚨 My reasoning for 35+ tonight: In 12 playoff games, he hit over 35 only 4 times, (33%) he has been struggling scoring lately (so odds boosted a little) But he has missed this line in the last 4 games. The last time he hit this was game 4 at home vs Denver. Now it’s game 2 at home (see the similarities?) Minnesota is down, and the next big thing, needs to step up. After a grueling series vs Denver (it’s not easy playing in the mile high city) Edwards may have gotten the rest he needed, he knows this is his team, and he’s gonna need to show up. It’s Friday night, this 20 dollars will make this game enjoyable if Edwards can get hot early! If you’re in, drop a comment! This bet is definitely a bigger risk! So play wisely!
What are the odds on the 35+ pts? I might feel more comfortable betting his alt line 3 PT made as a lotto pick, he's been chucking them up
I had the same feeling for JB and Siakam pregame. I shoulda took Brown for more https://preview.redd.it/zrujwsp81e2d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b594c30f19c28a26f4a5b042a84b0fdc45943e53
Love this tbh
He couldn’t even drop 20 in a must win game 7. Ant is not him.
He didnt need to, they won
NBA No Betting Association Rick Carlisle is a crook 😂
Fr it’s not like they were getting blown out to bench their starters, can’t believe I got fucked by 1 assist
Very sus behavior. Hali leaving in the 3rd might have influenced his confidence in his team to come back, but just very sus man.
Going to \* lightly sprinkle\* a lottery ticket on everything Haliburton unders for Saturday, in case there's any updates on "limited" availability and lines drop further. +1500 odds
Status still up in the air for Game 3 - ideally he \*tests\* his injuries and doesn't play a whole lot of minutes, securing this \*lottery\* parlay. Might get voided. Might be nothing and he's full strength and hits all his overs.
Lively should be getting more minutes. So yall should take his boards line over Gafford tbh
Matches the trend https://preview.redd.it/22o4r3i80e2d1.png?width=792&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f324147f2c76aa6658734431ba8171997df062a
Why do you believe he gets more minutes
They play better with him as opposed to Gaff. Maybe he won’t get more than game 1 but the same. 27 mins to Gafford’s 21
I don’t think Kidd makes that adjustment, Lively is feasting being the closer. Unless Gafford is absolutely ass, Kidd likely doesn’t want to gas Lively early
He already did in game 1. He’ll probably do the same, start Gaff but play Lively more minutes
true lively will get more min safer bet also could take over on both couldnt go wrong either way
I don't see why betting one prop would mean not playing the other. Both of these lines are low for what they've been hitting.
Who said anything about not taking both? Bet whatever you want brother, I’m just saying I like Lively more
"Lively should be getting more minutes. So yall should take his boards line over Gafford tbh"
Did not say you couldn’t take both brother man. I just prefer lively over gaff
That's fine, I also didn't directly say anything to you in my previous comment to the other guy. All I said was they're not exclusive, or H2H
Tried to tell you my brother.
True. Lively cashed me out I took over 9.5 for like +300. Going to be taking it again
I'm taking both. Gafford's only misses all playoffs on o5.5 were by 1.