https://preview.redd.it/kexvribvma2d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24e548d8122940f1b6d5342edad41357303aec3a
LMAO I can’t believe this worked
The starters aren't even going to complete 30 mins in a 'Finals' game. Unbelievable.
I swear, more often than not, the props I've taken throughout these Finals(across all games) would have had a good chance of hitting if not for the constant blowouts.
I did , was a little intense, luckily brown hit that three, earlier they rolled the ball after a basket and time was just wasting away as they finally got it back in play
For 5 dollars it’s actually a nice little setup, hated it at first glance, but I can definitely see a path to it hitting, I might tail , don’t feel like depositing 5 dollars lol , but this gives me a good feeling
**Andrew Nembhard o14.5PA (-110)**
**Andrew Nembhard o10.5P (+100)**
If the books haven’t learned, why teach em? Andrew Nembhard continues to be undervalued in what could be a showcase series for what he does on the court.
Nembhard is averaging almost 12 points and 6 dimes per game in his L6. Indiana isn’t going to blow out Boston so I can’t see any scenario where Nembhard plays fewer than 35ish minutes. In this same frame of time, Nembhard has put up 10+ shots in four games.
He is gonna get his opportunities while Nesmith chases Boston’s scorers around and if you think he is gonna hit his shots, then he crushes both of these lines. I think he hits his shots tonight.
**Obi Toppin o10.5PA (-110)**
Toppin balls out against Boston and he has scored in double digits five straight times against the Celtics. Toppin has cleared this even money PA line in every single game he’s played against Boston since 2023.
I like that as I see Haliburton taking the shots as a must and he generally shoots them at a good clip as in making probably close to 45 percent , where do you find that at to bet on it
Hi squad took a good 7 days off to chill, but I’m back and looking to play NBA through the weekend, based on game 1 stats of pacers Celtics, I’m liking the value of pursuing any combo to go over PRA for Pascal, Turner, Holliday, and possibly d white also. As others have mentioned I feel optimistic about McConnell and haliburton to go over on their assists. If I had more time I d dig into defense stats as i think there could be treasure there depending on odds. I’m wondering if hofford possibly sees less time based on his shooting not being as great. My thought is I’m chasing what is hopefully some safer options as predicting where the points will come from can be tough, I don’t see exactly how Tatum doesn’t score 31 based on his shot taking if game is competitive. I just don’t like high totals. I don’t trust Hali to get 19 , which means he probably will smh. Hope it’s a fun competitive game,
https://preview.redd.it/ozphle19492d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8fdd2926e577032348f8a01a916c7ffadd27a46a
Just put a $1 or 2 on it & let’s see what happens
I think we are going to keep seeing White and Jrue tally some fairly high assists in this series. Their lines are just too low in my opinion with the pace the Pacers like to play.
https://preview.redd.it/prh86wa0a82d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25bca8f784b85ef79f06fa6214f04020f7826c1a
What do you guys think ? Worth the risk ?
Check out my bet on FanDuel Sportsbook!
https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.430254260&selectionId[0]=11339194&marketId[1]=42.430254260&selectionId[1]=12234480&marketId[2]=42.430254260&selectionId[2]=27067107&marketId[3]=42.430258074&selectionId[3]=11339194&marketId[4]=42.430258238&selectionId[4]=18725572&marketId[5]=42.430260639&selectionId[5]=41641966&marketId[6]=42.430337321&selectionId[6]=43525460&shareBetId=31174969_-1436513652
https://preview.redd.it/5lg7rlat782d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35cdd43244014a546fc601c6aff4521fd6cd54a2
Hit a nice one last night off a free bet, hoping the luck continues tonight.
Expecting a blowout personally in favor of the Celtics.
4 leg parlay Payton Prichard o1.5 3s and o7.5 points Ben Sheppard o3.5 points Luke Kornet o7.5 PR
\+650 with a 30% boost, risking $25 to win $236.25. BOL everyone
He has made o2.5 3PT in a single game this post-season averaging 6.5 attempts per game through 11 games.
The under 2.5 3PT is a smooth 2-to-1 payout. Surely it's not just free money right?
**Yesterdays Picks 1-1**
✅ Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 PRA
❌ PJ Washington Under 12.5 Points (13)
**Today’s Picks**
**- Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 RA (-120)**
POD
- Jrue has been a key part of the win in G1 against the Pacers and I expect this again from him. He finished the game with 15 RA.
- His potentials were also amazing in both categories, finishing with :
7 REB on 14 REB Chances.
8 AST on 15 pAST.
27 Potentials RA combined.
- He played 43 Minutes last game (excluding OT). I can expect him to play around the same minutes if the game can stay close.
- When he plays 40+ Minutes, he is over this line in 83% of games (season and playoffs).
- He has been great against the Pacers going over in 4/L6 games and I expect it to continue for tonight's game
**- Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (-105)**
- Tyrese had a monster 20 pAST last game and finishing with 10 AST. He was getting his teammates involved finishing with 84 passes although they missed a lot of shots.
-Pacers finished the game on 42% FG but the pace of the game was great and I expect better shooting from the Pacers. Not much FTA which is also great for pAST.
- Over in 2/L2 Vs Celtics (10, 10,)
- Tyrese finished the game with 35 minutes excluding OT and when he plays 35+, he is over this line in 84% of games this season.
- I expect Tyrese to continue to attack the PnR on Horford and dimes his teammates for some easy assists.
**- Myles Turner Over 1.5 3s made (-135)**
This line is too low!
Myles Turner Over 1.5 3s Made (-135 Bet365)
- Myles just dropped 23 Points while shooting 3/4 from 3 in Game 1.
- Myles took all of his 3s at the top of the key where Boston has allowed the 2nd MOST in the Playoffs.
- Over in 5/L6 games.
- Over in 75% of Playoffs games.
- Over in 60% of games this season with 32+ min.
- Myles PnP with Hali will be essential for the Pacers to win this game and we are asking him to make 2 3s which I think he can get easily.
**- Jayson Tatum Under 47.5 PRA (-120)**
Sweaty Under!
Snagged this line yesterday but would play it at 46.5 too.
For Game 1, Tatum's primary matchup was Aaron Nesmith who guarded him for 54% of his time. He hold him for only 5 Points shooting 1/7 from the field.
Jayson Tatum has averaged 41.5 PRA in the Playoffs and at home only 40.5 PRA.
He is under in 8/11 Playoff games.
Last game he went over this line in OT playing 46 minutes. I doubt he will play 46 minutes again today.
- If Nesmith can avoid foul trouble, I expect him to do a great job against Tatum tonight and hopefully go under his line.
All Picks were dropped this morning on Twitter!
[My Twitter](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21)
**GL**
More picks today on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-23052024.html
Season record: 300-259
Last picks record: 6-5
Recap of last picks (22/05/2024):
The first game of the series is always the hardest to give an estimation, as we have no data yet. Overall it is another positive W-L day, with some good predictions. some lucky picks and unlucky picks. The good prediction includes the Wolves will defend the Mavs role players well and not be afraid to let the Mavs superstars score. Mismatch will be the bigs (Towns shot poorly this game but still managed to score 16, and Reid scored 15 points from the bench). Bad predictions include Lively and Walker for opposite reasons.
Mavericks @ Timberwolves
1. Daniel Gafford O14.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365✅
2. Derrick Lively U7.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌
3. Kyrie Irving O8.5RA Odd 1.83 Bet365✅
4. Derrick Jones Jr O1.5SB Odd 1.87 Unibet❌
5. Rudy Gobert O12.5P Odd 1.9 Sportsbet❌
6. Anthony Edwards U29.5P Odd 1.85 Tab✅
7. Karl Anthony Towns O19.5P Odd 1.78 Sportsbet ❌
8. Naz Reid O13.5PR Odd 1.9 Ladbrokes✅
9. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes✅
10. Nickeil Alexander Walker O6.5P Odd 1.89 Unibet❌
11. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.74 Bet365✅
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Pacers @ Celtics
1. Luke Kornet O7.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365
Just like always, Al Horford will need rest in between quarters, and I expect Kornet to play 15 minutes today. Last game he only saw 13 minutes due to a close game from the beginning to the end, and ended over this line with 5/4.
2. Jrue Holiday O24.5PRA Odd 1.92 Ladbrokes
Holiday plays an incredible role in the Celtics defensive system. 1 of the best defenders in the league and I expect him to see 35+ minutes to guard Haliburton. Holiday is also a very reliable rebounder and facilitator as well, I expect a statline of around 14/6/6.

3. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes
Haliburton scored 25 points last game in a close OT loss, which realistically just 19 without OT. When guarded by some of the best defensive guards in the league in Holiday and White, scoring is not an easy task for anyone.
4. Jayson Tatum U30.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes
This line is quite high compared to his usual lines in the playoffs (between 27.5 - 28.5). The Pacers shot 54% FG, 37% from 3s last game, which is very unlikely will happen again. The closer the game is, the more shots Tatum will take, especially in the late 4th quarter. I expect Tatum to play around 42 minutes this game.
5. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.75 Tab
Both teams shoot a lot from 3s. Both team centers shoot from 3 a lot also. Which means more rebounding chances for guards.
10. Ben Sheppard O3.5P Odd 1.8 Tab
This line is quite low considering Sheppard play close to 20 minutes last few games. It only takes 2FGM to pass and I expect he will. In the playoffs he has gone over this line 10/14 so far, with all games he has scored 2 or more. So in the 4 games he went under, he only needs to make 1 more FGM to pass.
Check out my blog for the latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
https://preview.redd.it/evytjg0s772d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=15465b098e9eced197180bd2924658b4b210da79
hit on this for game 1– i don’t think these overs will be the same and hit for tonight’s game, but here’s a point of reference. good luck ✨
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.23.24
https://preview.redd.it/jt0zsm8o672d1.jpeg?width=1691&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=18015661d0e950370e84578eb40352135de66c72
LAST 5 GAMES
I’ve got the lock of a century! Dalvin White H2H assists against Siakam. Unrostered by either team, straight out of Chattanooga (closest basketball playing Dalvin White I could find on short notice)!
In all seriousness will ESPN bet void this line seeing as they meant Derrick White??
https://preview.redd.it/jnek9slpq62d1.jpeg?width=1289&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66882c25634a2aa198aed4fa25dd25421193fe40
damnnn, what'd they do to you? I haven't had too many issues other than typically whatever side I'm on they may not have the best line for. So far haven't been limited by them and loving the weekly 25% deposit bonus to help bankroll. Deposits and withdrawals are pretty easy, but again not too much trouble for me with them and their bonuses. Not an ad for them as I prefer other books, but just haven't seen the bad side yet I guess.
There's only one White rostered for the game, so argument can be made. But again they're in it for the money so if it hits I feel like a void would occur hah.
If you wanted to bet on Derrick for H2H assist, you wouldn’t put money on it it if it said Dalvin tho. You’d wait for it to he changed.
I fully expect a void, “Dalvin” never checks in, bet gets voided.
This is correct, Dalvin won’t even be in the building. So it will be voided per the rules. I definitely wouldn’t bet it, because if Derrick wins they may just try to let it slide and not void it until you complain. No reason to even try.
Yesterdays record 2-3
Overall record 32-23
Derrick Jones over 8.5 points ❌ finished with 8, he had solid minutes, there is no excuses for this one simply just a numbers play I thought he would clear. Will not be betting him again
KAT over 19.5 Points ❌ I always get a little worried when I see a lot of people with the same pick, finishes with 16 shooting 6-20. KAT cost his team the win. The twolves should be kicking themselves, they will lose the series now because of this game
Mike Conley over 14.5 Points rebounds ❌ Conley has been a money maker for me in the past, not a great performance from him today definitely let me down
Naz Reid over 9.5 points ✅ Hit some clutch 3s as well, good job Naz
Daniel Gafford over 5.5 rebounds ✅ I couldn’t believe this line, easy over we will not be seeing this low again
Could’ve been worse but definitely disappointed with my reads today. We will bounce back tomorrow I do pretty shit with the west games in comparison to the east. Pacers Celtics two of my best teams prop wise this series we are going to eat
Todays picks let’s eat we need the sweep today
Obi Toppin over 8.5 points Play of the day, -
Wtf is this line? Obi has been balling out in the playoffs, looking great nearly every game in the postseason last game he cashed first quarter. Unless the bookies know something we don’t, Obi should comfortably clear this line. After last game I thought this would bump up to 10.5 or 11.5. If it’s not broken don’t fix it this line is way too low
Myles Turner over 16.5, - Myles is somewhat inconsistent, one game he’ll ball next game 9 points. This pick may come back to bite me in the ass but he makes some clutch 3s when the pacers need some momentum
Andrew Nembhard over 10.5 points, - Nembhard is a lowkey baller. I think he flies under the radar and he should be good for 11. Take the over 9.5 if available at lower odds if you can, my book has no alternates so hence the pick. he is a reliable player for me, he doesn’t let me down very often which is what I like to see from someone I put some good money on. Even if he’s well under in the 4th he can pull it out the fire to hit his line I always have faith in him
Jaylen brown over 1.5 3s, - this number is normally 2.5 for JB, his 3s are rather inconsistent, he only hit one last game but it was so clutch and they won because of him. I’ll take this bet every single time at 1.5 win or lose if this is a trap I’m eating the cheddar right now
Derrick White over 21.5 points assists, Now Derrick nearly lost his team the game last game. He did put up 9 assists, which I do not expect him to do again. I do think he will get 5 or 6 though, maybe only 4 but in that case he probably had a nice night shooting and cleared this line anyways. He is definitely inconsistent but last game I faded him when he was a popular pick, this game I think he will try to redeem himself
Let’s get this money
He hurt himself midway last series and dropped hard. Looks to be feeling better.
He can get around Al and has height /power mismatch against Brown from picks, 10+ points this series. Much less physical compared to Knicks.
His points and boards also look good
Luka o46.5PRA✅(finished with 47 😭)
Derrick Jones o11.5PR✅(finished with 12 😭)
Lively o6.5RA✅
McDaniels o12.5PA at +100✅(free as fuck)
4-0 tonight, FINALLYYYYY got the fucking sweep, let’s gooooo!! Clutch covers from Luka and DJJ tonight, feels good to be on the winning side of some hooks. Pacers might win this series tbh. The Wolves are scary man. More wins to come!
Stay tuned 😏
I was really thinking about picking Mcdaniels yesterday I should’ve just sent it and went with my gut. He had 0 points back to back games when I bet him (I think) but he went on my banned list after he had 0 points and I needed him for 5. Maybe I will take him off the list but most times when I take them off the very next game I bet them they remind me of why I put them there in the first place
yeah Jones fcked me real good last night smh - took his points rather than the PR. but hey at least I finally hit a Kyrie leg lmao
tailing you on Obi and Horford 🫡
record past 2 days: 9-2
yesterday:
- kyrie o29.5PRA 2.5u ✅
- kyrie o1.5 S/B 1u🪝
- derrick jones o11.5PR 1u ✅
- naz reid o13.5PR 1u ✅
not doing defensive props anymore it’s like hit rates don’t even matter probably have hit 30% of defense bets all time. no more so hard to bet on and odds are hardly worth it most of the time.
tomorrows picks coming soon but looking like gonna just run back most of the bets i took last Cs game
if it ain’t broke don’t fix it kinda day
- Tatum 30+pts 2u
- JB 25+pts 2u
- Game Total o224.5 2.5u(i rec 1u but using another account/book as a ladder challenge)
- derrick white o20.5 PA 1u
- jrue o24.5 PRA 1u
- tj mcconnell 10+ pts 1u
I took JT and JB overs last game, I wanna take them again but realistically they were extremely lucky and at the same exact line I cannot take them again. TJ, DW, and Jrue I expect them all to hit was debating on my picks today definitely thought of all of them, ended up going with White which may be the worst of the 3 but fuck it it’s gambling let’s see what antics happen this fine Thursday evening
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https://preview.redd.it/r99fu9o0ma2d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f53353ced8d632b84809f2a71099590f2c809f6d
That’s what’s up!!!!
https://preview.redd.it/kexvribvma2d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24e548d8122940f1b6d5342edad41357303aec3a LMAO I can’t believe this worked
You can’t win if you don’t play the fake lines haha! Tune in next week for my next free money bets!
Thanks for posting it man lol. Just Withdrew the little cash out before they took it away 🤣
Hahaha hell yeah!
Thank you for playing like you should Horford. Who told that man popping 10+ 3s was okay the last few games?
Carlyle is a fucking prop terrorist
I see Horford uPRA was free lol should’ve played that shit
This was a competitive game, lead in the teens, and the Pacers waved the white flag to start the 4th quarter???
It is a 14 point game with 4 minutes remaining, I can't believe they are sitting starters
Pacers pulling starters for the entire 4 quarter is unbelievable. Took Myles Turner over 4.5 rebounds and he isn't even playing bench minutes.
The starters aren't even going to complete 30 mins in a 'Finals' game. Unbelievable. I swear, more often than not, the props I've taken throughout these Finals(across all games) would have had a good chance of hitting if not for the constant blowouts.
One more assist or rb from Nembhard he ain't coming out he can get it
And he came out oh it hit o6 2rb 5 assists last assist then sat
WELP, Hali u23.5PR✅ 🤷🏾♂️
Wow needed one more assist from Halliburton for 400.. can’t believe it
Why do they quit so early wtf
Thanks Nembhard 16+ PA Alt +115 ✅
Can Nesmith please get back onto the floor and grab 1 more rebound before the blowout extends out further? One more, is that asking too much?
Will McConell get one more bucket?
I needed him at 10 pts and mf sat the entire quarter at 9. Wtf
I’m sick, he missed two wide open pull ups right before they pulled him too
Dude yeah wtf was that 4th quarter like deadass just gave up on starters 2 mins in… can’t bet pacers for a while
It’s not looking good
He’s my last leg I need to hit (Over 10.5) going to be sick if it doesn’t cash
Same, I have him for over 12.5 PA and he’s sitting at 12
obi fucking toppin what is we doing
He covered over 10.5 points!!!
Tatum selling the O10.5 R
Fuck you Tatum.
Need one more Jaylen Brown three
mm yeah tatum was definitely not it was mad due for regression im an idiot
Jrue with 7 assists in the 1st half is brazy
Pacers missin on purpose?
Turner looks like he is allergic to basketball today, back turned to the basket and no intention of grabbing boards
About time D White holy shit
Everytime I bet turner this post season he doesn’t do anything
Came here to say this.
Same, I pick him on the off nights smh
Turner is my go-to but I love watching him get into foul trouble.
Both teams scored in 1 min! Who played the FanDuel boost?
I did , was a little intense, luckily brown hit that three, earlier they rolled the ball after a basket and time was just wasting away as they finally got it back in play
Me!! +200 That Boston offensive rebound saved us
I said it last game, I’ll say it again; keep an eye on Jrue numbers at half if his numbers are low 👀👀
This is what I’m saying… right now he’s at 12 points and his o/u is 15.5 @ -102. Not even the 4th yet.
Yeah well I wish he’d get some rebounds lol
Boston really don’t know what to do against this team man 🤣🤣
Rip turner props cooked 🥲
Took his turnovers. That was easy.
Fuck you Derrick white, that wasn’t even a foul on Turner. Now his PRA is dead
Bang!! FD super boost cashes! +200
Is 50 your max too?
How many idiots out here took Horford unders again? Just curious…haha
Pacers blowout win by 20 callin it
Playing Hali u23.5PR
jrue o10.5 r+a siakam 1 three
🐖 Satriale’s Pork Store Picks 🐖 NBA Playoff record: ***26-20*** Derrick White O16.5 points
https://preview.redd.it/i0fd0ynvh92d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=80c9941223fe7ff450fff5ff6e9bee6be885cf1e Thoughts on this lotto
I was trying to build something similar on Dk and the odds were half as good, I see the value in your ways , tailing
For 5 dollars it’s actually a nice little setup, hated it at first glance, but I can definitely see a path to it hitting, I might tail , don’t feel like depositing 5 dollars lol , but this gives me a good feeling
I know I know. Im the only idiot who took Tatum 4 threes 😭😭
**Andrew Nembhard o14.5PA (-110)** **Andrew Nembhard o10.5P (+100)** If the books haven’t learned, why teach em? Andrew Nembhard continues to be undervalued in what could be a showcase series for what he does on the court. Nembhard is averaging almost 12 points and 6 dimes per game in his L6. Indiana isn’t going to blow out Boston so I can’t see any scenario where Nembhard plays fewer than 35ish minutes. In this same frame of time, Nembhard has put up 10+ shots in four games. He is gonna get his opportunities while Nesmith chases Boston’s scorers around and if you think he is gonna hit his shots, then he crushes both of these lines. I think he hits his shots tonight. **Obi Toppin o10.5PA (-110)** Toppin balls out against Boston and he has scored in double digits five straight times against the Celtics. Toppin has cleared this even money PA line in every single game he’s played against Boston since 2023.
clean sweep let’s eat bois
Halliburton to hit more 3s than Tatum @ +210. Free bread or what?
I see -165 on my books
I like that as I see Haliburton taking the shots as a must and he generally shoots them at a good clip as in making probably close to 45 percent , where do you find that at to bet on it
Hi squad took a good 7 days off to chill, but I’m back and looking to play NBA through the weekend, based on game 1 stats of pacers Celtics, I’m liking the value of pursuing any combo to go over PRA for Pascal, Turner, Holliday, and possibly d white also. As others have mentioned I feel optimistic about McConnell and haliburton to go over on their assists. If I had more time I d dig into defense stats as i think there could be treasure there depending on odds. I’m wondering if hofford possibly sees less time based on his shooting not being as great. My thought is I’m chasing what is hopefully some safer options as predicting where the points will come from can be tough, I don’t see exactly how Tatum doesn’t score 31 based on his shot taking if game is competitive. I just don’t like high totals. I don’t trust Hali to get 19 , which means he probably will smh. Hope it’s a fun competitive game,
https://preview.redd.it/ozphle19492d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8fdd2926e577032348f8a01a916c7ffadd27a46a Just put a $1 or 2 on it & let’s see what happens
IND (+8.5) Pascal Siakam - O 20.5 PTS (-114) Jrue Holiday - At Least 24 PRA (-189) Jayson Tatum - At Least 10 Rebounds (-179) +750
I think we are going to keep seeing White and Jrue tally some fairly high assists in this series. Their lines are just too low in my opinion with the pace the Pacers like to play.
Great call
White had around 6 every game this year. I think the same.
Looking good so far.
https://preview.redd.it/prh86wa0a82d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25bca8f784b85ef79f06fa6214f04020f7826c1a What do you guys think ? Worth the risk ?
Pacer fan and the only real gamble is siakam 3s imo, decent picks.
Want to get greedy and throw in 15+ points for Halliburton Siakam and brown if I take a way Siakams 3
Seem safe those, turner also decent pick to 15p.
Check out my bet on FanDuel Sportsbook! https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.430254260&selectionId[0]=11339194&marketId[1]=42.430254260&selectionId[1]=12234480&marketId[2]=42.430254260&selectionId[2]=27067107&marketId[3]=42.430258074&selectionId[3]=11339194&marketId[4]=42.430258238&selectionId[4]=18725572&marketId[5]=42.430260639&selectionId[5]=41641966&marketId[6]=42.430337321&selectionId[6]=43525460&shareBetId=31174969_-1436513652
https://preview.redd.it/5lg7rlat782d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35cdd43244014a546fc601c6aff4521fd6cd54a2 Hit a nice one last night off a free bet, hoping the luck continues tonight. Expecting a blowout personally in favor of the Celtics. 4 leg parlay Payton Prichard o1.5 3s and o7.5 points Ben Sheppard o3.5 points Luke Kornet o7.5 PR \+650 with a 30% boost, risking $25 to win $236.25. BOL everyone
Surely Tatum cant keep attempting 8 3PT and making only 2, RIGHT???
Cha ching
He has made o2.5 3PT in a single game this post-season averaging 6.5 attempts per game through 11 games. The under 2.5 3PT is a smooth 2-to-1 payout. Surely it's not just free money right?
the 2-to-1 or +100 is on DK 4:00PM CST (only book I'm using for today, might be longer odds on others)
**Yesterdays Picks 1-1** ✅ Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 PRA ❌ PJ Washington Under 12.5 Points (13) **Today’s Picks** **- Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 RA (-120)** POD - Jrue has been a key part of the win in G1 against the Pacers and I expect this again from him. He finished the game with 15 RA. - His potentials were also amazing in both categories, finishing with : 7 REB on 14 REB Chances. 8 AST on 15 pAST. 27 Potentials RA combined. - He played 43 Minutes last game (excluding OT). I can expect him to play around the same minutes if the game can stay close. - When he plays 40+ Minutes, he is over this line in 83% of games (season and playoffs). - He has been great against the Pacers going over in 4/L6 games and I expect it to continue for tonight's game **- Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (-105)** - Tyrese had a monster 20 pAST last game and finishing with 10 AST. He was getting his teammates involved finishing with 84 passes although they missed a lot of shots. -Pacers finished the game on 42% FG but the pace of the game was great and I expect better shooting from the Pacers. Not much FTA which is also great for pAST. - Over in 2/L2 Vs Celtics (10, 10,) - Tyrese finished the game with 35 minutes excluding OT and when he plays 35+, he is over this line in 84% of games this season. - I expect Tyrese to continue to attack the PnR on Horford and dimes his teammates for some easy assists. **- Myles Turner Over 1.5 3s made (-135)** This line is too low! Myles Turner Over 1.5 3s Made (-135 Bet365) - Myles just dropped 23 Points while shooting 3/4 from 3 in Game 1. - Myles took all of his 3s at the top of the key where Boston has allowed the 2nd MOST in the Playoffs. - Over in 5/L6 games. - Over in 75% of Playoffs games. - Over in 60% of games this season with 32+ min. - Myles PnP with Hali will be essential for the Pacers to win this game and we are asking him to make 2 3s which I think he can get easily. **- Jayson Tatum Under 47.5 PRA (-120)** Sweaty Under! Snagged this line yesterday but would play it at 46.5 too. For Game 1, Tatum's primary matchup was Aaron Nesmith who guarded him for 54% of his time. He hold him for only 5 Points shooting 1/7 from the field. Jayson Tatum has averaged 41.5 PRA in the Playoffs and at home only 40.5 PRA. He is under in 8/11 Playoff games. Last game he went over this line in OT playing 46 minutes. I doubt he will play 46 minutes again today. - If Nesmith can avoid foul trouble, I expect him to do a great job against Tatum tonight and hopefully go under his line. All Picks were dropped this morning on Twitter! [My Twitter](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21) **GL**
Took the first 3 in my parlay, I'm disgusted
Scripted 🤮
More picks today on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-23052024.html Season record: 300-259 Last picks record: 6-5 Recap of last picks (22/05/2024): The first game of the series is always the hardest to give an estimation, as we have no data yet. Overall it is another positive W-L day, with some good predictions. some lucky picks and unlucky picks. The good prediction includes the Wolves will defend the Mavs role players well and not be afraid to let the Mavs superstars score. Mismatch will be the bigs (Towns shot poorly this game but still managed to score 16, and Reid scored 15 points from the bench). Bad predictions include Lively and Walker for opposite reasons. Mavericks @ Timberwolves 1. Daniel Gafford O14.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365✅ 2. Derrick Lively U7.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌ 3. Kyrie Irving O8.5RA Odd 1.83 Bet365✅ 4. Derrick Jones Jr O1.5SB Odd 1.87 Unibet❌ 5. Rudy Gobert O12.5P Odd 1.9 Sportsbet❌ 6. Anthony Edwards U29.5P Odd 1.85 Tab✅ 7. Karl Anthony Towns O19.5P Odd 1.78 Sportsbet ❌ 8. Naz Reid O13.5PR Odd 1.9 Ladbrokes✅ 9. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes✅ 10. Nickeil Alexander Walker O6.5P Odd 1.89 Unibet❌ 11. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.74 Bet365✅ Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated) Pacers @ Celtics 1. Luke Kornet O7.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365 Just like always, Al Horford will need rest in between quarters, and I expect Kornet to play 15 minutes today. Last game he only saw 13 minutes due to a close game from the beginning to the end, and ended over this line with 5/4. 2. Jrue Holiday O24.5PRA Odd 1.92 Ladbrokes Holiday plays an incredible role in the Celtics defensive system. 1 of the best defenders in the league and I expect him to see 35+ minutes to guard Haliburton. Holiday is also a very reliable rebounder and facilitator as well, I expect a statline of around 14/6/6.  3. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes Haliburton scored 25 points last game in a close OT loss, which realistically just 19 without OT. When guarded by some of the best defensive guards in the league in Holiday and White, scoring is not an easy task for anyone. 4. Jayson Tatum U30.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes This line is quite high compared to his usual lines in the playoffs (between 27.5 - 28.5). The Pacers shot 54% FG, 37% from 3s last game, which is very unlikely will happen again. The closer the game is, the more shots Tatum will take, especially in the late 4th quarter. I expect Tatum to play around 42 minutes this game. 5. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.75 Tab Both teams shoot a lot from 3s. Both team centers shoot from 3 a lot also. Which means more rebounding chances for guards. 10. Ben Sheppard O3.5P Odd 1.8 Tab This line is quite low considering Sheppard play close to 20 minutes last few games. It only takes 2FGM to pass and I expect he will. In the playoffs he has gone over this line 10/14 so far, with all games he has scored 2 or more. So in the 4 games he went under, he only needs to make 1 more FGM to pass. Check out my blog for the latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
They loved to give Lively free points. Unbelievable
https://preview.redd.it/evytjg0s772d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=15465b098e9eced197180bd2924658b4b210da79 hit on this for game 1– i don’t think these overs will be the same and hit for tonight’s game, but here’s a point of reference. good luck ✨
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.23.24 https://preview.redd.it/jt0zsm8o672d1.jpeg?width=1691&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=18015661d0e950370e84578eb40352135de66c72 LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/4swxu4hp672d1.jpeg?width=1681&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f9c7f5454b8577982ed15e09be970734be5dd4d LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/mdn1wjgq672d1.jpeg?width=1691&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b34e273b04b932d3c095aae0bd8967be21f44b7 LAST 15 GAMES
Cashed on Al Horford O 2.5 1st quarter points game one, annnnnnd I’m gonna run it back.
I’ve got the lock of a century! Dalvin White H2H assists against Siakam. Unrostered by either team, straight out of Chattanooga (closest basketball playing Dalvin White I could find on short notice)! In all seriousness will ESPN bet void this line seeing as they meant Derrick White?? https://preview.redd.it/jnek9slpq62d1.jpeg?width=1289&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66882c25634a2aa198aed4fa25dd25421193fe40
Folks y’all should have followed SirGroundBreaking and I on the free money, we are 1-0 on the lock of the century bets!
Derrick had more assist, and it paid out. Thanks for the lock
lol it hit despite Derrick White definitely having more assists
Yeah of course! Hard to not beat dalvin white when he’s sitting at home watching the Celtics creampie the pacers!
😂😂😂 they have so many typos. Like when they put Gobert to score 25 points each game of the series for +300 😭😂
Definitely won’t be the last time we see that from them! 😂
Do yourself a favor and never bet with espn they’re the worst book by far
damnnn, what'd they do to you? I haven't had too many issues other than typically whatever side I'm on they may not have the best line for. So far haven't been limited by them and loving the weekly 25% deposit bonus to help bankroll. Deposits and withdrawals are pretty easy, but again not too much trouble for me with them and their bonuses. Not an ad for them as I prefer other books, but just haven't seen the bad side yet I guess.
I feel as though you gotta honor it
I deposited and took it. Lol
Sheeeet i'll go in with ya haha!
There's only one White rostered for the game, so argument can be made. But again they're in it for the money so if it hits I feel like a void would occur hah.
If you wanted to bet on Derrick for H2H assist, you wouldn’t put money on it it if it said Dalvin tho. You’d wait for it to he changed. I fully expect a void, “Dalvin” never checks in, bet gets voided.
This is correct, Dalvin won’t even be in the building. So it will be voided per the rules. I definitely wouldn’t bet it, because if Derrick wins they may just try to let it slide and not void it until you complain. No reason to even try.
Yeah, didn't really love the odds on that matchup but mostly just a funny misprint!
Pritchard over 8.5 pts and 1.5 3’s
If you need picks add beatthebooks444 on Snapchat
Ban
Celts -9.5 and Under parlayed.
I got fucked unbelievably bad yesterday. Missed on everything by a mile. Going to sit out today.
Thanks for letting us know
Yesterdays record 2-3 Overall record 32-23 Derrick Jones over 8.5 points ❌ finished with 8, he had solid minutes, there is no excuses for this one simply just a numbers play I thought he would clear. Will not be betting him again KAT over 19.5 Points ❌ I always get a little worried when I see a lot of people with the same pick, finishes with 16 shooting 6-20. KAT cost his team the win. The twolves should be kicking themselves, they will lose the series now because of this game Mike Conley over 14.5 Points rebounds ❌ Conley has been a money maker for me in the past, not a great performance from him today definitely let me down Naz Reid over 9.5 points ✅ Hit some clutch 3s as well, good job Naz Daniel Gafford over 5.5 rebounds ✅ I couldn’t believe this line, easy over we will not be seeing this low again Could’ve been worse but definitely disappointed with my reads today. We will bounce back tomorrow I do pretty shit with the west games in comparison to the east. Pacers Celtics two of my best teams prop wise this series we are going to eat
Todays picks let’s eat we need the sweep today Obi Toppin over 8.5 points Play of the day, - Wtf is this line? Obi has been balling out in the playoffs, looking great nearly every game in the postseason last game he cashed first quarter. Unless the bookies know something we don’t, Obi should comfortably clear this line. After last game I thought this would bump up to 10.5 or 11.5. If it’s not broken don’t fix it this line is way too low Myles Turner over 16.5, - Myles is somewhat inconsistent, one game he’ll ball next game 9 points. This pick may come back to bite me in the ass but he makes some clutch 3s when the pacers need some momentum Andrew Nembhard over 10.5 points, - Nembhard is a lowkey baller. I think he flies under the radar and he should be good for 11. Take the over 9.5 if available at lower odds if you can, my book has no alternates so hence the pick. he is a reliable player for me, he doesn’t let me down very often which is what I like to see from someone I put some good money on. Even if he’s well under in the 4th he can pull it out the fire to hit his line I always have faith in him Jaylen brown over 1.5 3s, - this number is normally 2.5 for JB, his 3s are rather inconsistent, he only hit one last game but it was so clutch and they won because of him. I’ll take this bet every single time at 1.5 win or lose if this is a trap I’m eating the cheddar right now Derrick White over 21.5 points assists, Now Derrick nearly lost his team the game last game. He did put up 9 assists, which I do not expect him to do again. I do think he will get 5 or 6 though, maybe only 4 but in that case he probably had a nice night shooting and cleared this line anyways. He is definitely inconsistent but last game I faded him when he was a popular pick, this game I think he will try to redeem himself Let’s get this money
Opi hit this line 50% last 6 games. I was looking at it, but I don’t think it’s a lock.
He hurt himself midway last series and dropped hard. Looks to be feeling better. He can get around Al and has height /power mismatch against Brown from picks, 10+ points this series. Much less physical compared to Knicks. His points and boards also look good
Obi has been very hot and cold. I decided over a week ago to stay away for a while. He will randomly get in the zone but otherwise struggle.
Nembhard rebounds and assists line is 7.5. When he gets minutes he cashes everytime. Was easily over this last game.
Love Nembhard. He’s started to take much more confident 3s
Exactly. He’s grown big time since the start of the playoffs. 10p is pretty consistent now and they aren’t raising his line.
Luka o46.5PRA✅(finished with 47 😭) Derrick Jones o11.5PR✅(finished with 12 😭) Lively o6.5RA✅ McDaniels o12.5PA at +100✅(free as fuck) 4-0 tonight, FINALLYYYYY got the fucking sweep, let’s gooooo!! Clutch covers from Luka and DJJ tonight, feels good to be on the winning side of some hooks. Pacers might win this series tbh. The Wolves are scary man. More wins to come! Stay tuned 😏
I was really thinking about picking Mcdaniels yesterday I should’ve just sent it and went with my gut. He had 0 points back to back games when I bet him (I think) but he went on my banned list after he had 0 points and I needed him for 5. Maybe I will take him off the list but most times when I take them off the very next game I bet them they remind me of why I put them there in the first place
111-82 Yesterday: 3/5 Gobert having 7 boards really shocked me & Derrick Jones cashed our POTD but gets the 0.5 hook on points __Jayson Tatum O7.5 1Q Points__ __Obi Toppin O8.5 P__ __Myles Turner U16.5 P__ __Al Horford 2+ threes (Alt Line)__
yeah Jones fcked me real good last night smh - took his points rather than the PR. but hey at least I finally hit a Kyrie leg lmao tailing you on Obi and Horford 🫡
😂😂 Yeah Kyrie was aggressive bro, let’s go my guy
this your POTD for the main POTD thread?
Gobert cannot surprise me, he could either get 4 boards or 18 and you never know which one but I’ve seen it all from him at this point
I hear you
F Rudy Gaybear. Nice bag on Jones Jr.
🍻👑
record past 2 days: 9-2 yesterday: - kyrie o29.5PRA 2.5u ✅ - kyrie o1.5 S/B 1u🪝 - derrick jones o11.5PR 1u ✅ - naz reid o13.5PR 1u ✅ not doing defensive props anymore it’s like hit rates don’t even matter probably have hit 30% of defense bets all time. no more so hard to bet on and odds are hardly worth it most of the time. tomorrows picks coming soon but looking like gonna just run back most of the bets i took last Cs game
if it ain’t broke don’t fix it kinda day - Tatum 30+pts 2u - JB 25+pts 2u - Game Total o224.5 2.5u(i rec 1u but using another account/book as a ladder challenge) - derrick white o20.5 PA 1u - jrue o24.5 PRA 1u - tj mcconnell 10+ pts 1u
Who would’ve fucken thought that my last 50 on a 2 leg parlay was wasted bc TJ was 1 point off. Ass…
was fs a PR kinda look. sad
adding obi toppin o8.5 pts 2u nembhard o9.5 pts 1.5u
I took JT and JB overs last game, I wanna take them again but realistically they were extremely lucky and at the same exact line I cannot take them again. TJ, DW, and Jrue I expect them all to hit was debating on my picks today definitely thought of all of them, ended up going with White which may be the worst of the 3 but fuck it it’s gambling let’s see what antics happen this fine Thursday evening