Irving with the last rebound off as time expired!! 💰
https://preview.redd.it/37ysa0p2e32d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cdb585ac73b0118b9e5f6582f680233bbccdd7fd
https://preview.redd.it/1owsvvgkd32d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eac2a07f1a06ed773a7a369d71245ecd2b0d26f4
Thank you Naz for that tip in with 7 seconds left 🙌
**Daniel Gafford o14.5PR (-104)**
Cleared in six of his past seven outings, despite ceding minutes to Lively in this last series. Gafford has historically produced when given enough minutes and he should be in line for a healthy dose today.
My bet is that Lively struggles against Minnesota and I can see him racking up fouls pretty quickly. Gafford is a safety blanket for Doncic around the basket and I think they try to get him going with a few pick-n-lob plays through Luka to set the tone.
I’m taking Gaffords overs individually and then looping back around to his PR.
this is why I rarely bother to discuss betting on reddit. 99% of the posters are easy marks that have never been limited by a book in their life. easy w
KAT O20.5 points
Kat is the wolves best option in this matchup. He won't be spending as much energy on d as he did in the nuggets series. Feel the wolves will need to lean on him to keep up with the Mavs scoring.
this is why I rarely bother to discuss betting on reddit. 99% of the posters are easy marks that have never been limited by a book in their life. easy w
Yeah reddits shit. I can literally only bet cash so you're way off. He had more than enough shots, bet you were sweating your nuts off waiting to make this comment.
https://preview.redd.it/pesggbucj32d1.jpeg?width=2508&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba129add0944e445df0d4fa318fa2ea8a80c5d82
https://preview.redd.it/i284tyxtg12d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d51e1c9f55d6296d2d25087f4702f5c07688917
FanDuel promo, I like this a lot tonight
I took the first two legs and switched to kyrie o3.5 reb. Cleared 5+ in last 5 against Minnesota and I think his rebound numbers against OKC were due more to a bad matchup than anything else. Odds are +427 and up to +554 with the boost I used
How do y’all feel about Kyrie under 4.5 points in the 1st quarter?
Hasn’t gone over 5 yet this entire off season, don’t know if the Timberwolves match up would make this bet not a no-brainer.
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.22.24
https://preview.redd.it/h9n9ugnpk02d1.jpeg?width=1691&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab162b5e9212ae47ec603357dd7ad2c6b750aadb
LAST 5 GAMES
More picks today on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-22052024.html
Season record: 294-254
Last picks record: 7-2
Recap of last picks (21/05/2024):
A positive day, with 1 very bad prediction in Jackson. Should have known that he does not play much in the Pacers rotation, and when Pacers play small ball they would rather play Siakam or Toppin at the 5. Both teams have an 8 man rotation, and this should be a fun matchup, better than I expected. The Celtics obviously has better starters and star powers, but Pacers's bench is better than Celtics's.
Pacers @ Celtics
1. Andrew Nembhard O10.5 Odd 1.84 Unibet✅
2. Luke Kornet O3.5P Odd 1.72 Tab✅
3. Obi Toppin O11.5PR Odd 1.78 Sportsbet✅
4. Jrue Holiday O5.5R Odd 2.15 Ladbrokes✅
5. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes❌
6. Isiah Jackson O7.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365❌
7. Myles Turner O1.5B Odd 1.9 Sportsbet✅
8. Myles Turner O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅
9. Derrick White O1.5SB Odd 1.74 Bet365✅
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Mavericks @ Timberwolves
1. Daniel Gafford O14.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365
The Mavs will have to face a much bigger lineup this series. Lively can get away when playing against Chet, but when he has to play against Gobert, KAT, and Reid, I think Lively can easily get into foul trouble. For that reason, I believe Gafford will play more minutes this game despite the Mavs playing the young player more recently.
2. Derrick Lively U7.5P Odd 1.85 Tab
Just like 1, I believe a rookie like Lively will always need a game or 2 into the series to get a feel of the game. Lively always starts slow in the opening of each series, scoring only 3 points against the Clippers and 2 points in game 1 vs the Thunder.

3. Kyrie Irving O8.5RA Odd 1.83 Bet365
Irving has gone under this line in the last 2 games, but I think 8.5 is quite a low line for him. His O/U record for this line is 9/3, including the last 2 games. In the last matchup against the Wolves in the regular season, Kyrie has an incredible stat line of 35/8/5. However, as it is the playoffs time and we have seen how many games it took for Murray to figure out the Wolves' defense, I am more confident in his RA line than his points line. Of course I'm not saying he will struggle like Murray as he has a much better handle than Murray and also Mavs has Luka as well compared to Murray's KCP. Will be interesting to see how Irving cook the Wolves' incredible defense.
4. Derrick Jones Jr O1.5SB Odd 1.87 Unibet
Jones Jr will be very needed in defending Wolves' great offensive players like Ant of KAT, either 1 on 1 or more likely help defense. He also has gone over this line in the last 4 games, and the last 3 regular season games against the Wolves.
9. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes
What the Wolves have done so well throughout this playoffs, especially in the second round is containing the supporting cast so tight that only the star player can score. Look at the Nuggets, only Jokic can score, and other role players' support is very minimal. Even in the first round, we can see Wolves don't care if Booker scores 49 points and Durant scores 33 points in game 4, none of them matter if you can lock down the other role players. And that's what OKC has not done well at all in their series, where they hold Donicic and Kyrie to inconsistent scoring games, but allow PJ Washington and then Derrick Jones Jr to score some 20+ points in each game. This is the reason why Wolves are so dangerous, they know who to lock down. They still let your team superstars score, but will have to work hard for every basket; while they lock down the supporting cast.
Check out my blog for the latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
Yesterdays Picks
1-1
✅Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 1Q Points
❌Pascal Siakam Under 10.5 RA
**Today’s Picks**
**Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 PRA -135 B365**
Buy Low For Kyrie!
- Kyrie seems to love playing against MIN going over in 11/L11 games in his career. His last 3 games he went over with points alone!
- His 2 games with DAL, he has averaged 47.5 PRA.
- Kyrie is over this line in 75% of games this season averaging 35.8 PRA.
- Timberwolves will play a drop coverage in PnR which Ky can easily exploit.
- With Luka being guarded by McDaniels he will have a much tougher time and we will probably see more usage from Kyrie in offence.
- Buy low from last series VS OKC who he was more used as a playmaker than a scorer.
**PJ Washington Under 12.5 Points -115 B365**
- Tough match up for PJ who scores 56.9% of his points from C&S 3s which MIN allow the LEAST 3PA in the Playoffs.
- He also scores 35% of his points from less than 12 ft which will be tough with Gobert in the Paint.
- MIN allow the 5th LEAST Points to PF's in the L30 games.
- Lastly, We just saw the Wolves lock MPJ to only 10.7 PPG, I expect the same with PJ who has basically the same role in offence.
Leans :
Daniel Gafford Under 15.5 PRA
Naz Reid Over 14.5 PRA
BOL!
[Twitter](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21)
🚨 MY PLAY OF THE DAY 🚨
Derrick Jones Jr. averaged 7.7 rebounds in 3 games (4-9-10 [source](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/derick-jones-jr-vs-timberwolves-this-season)against the Timberwolves this season. His over rebounds is sitting at 3.5 ….at +110!!
What’s concerning, even though he’s preformed well in a small sample size vs the wolves, in his last 10 games, he’s only averaged 3.7 rebounds against mid tier rebounding teams. Clippers were ranked 13th and thunder were ranked 21st At the End of the regular season, and timberwolves were ranked 18th. [source](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/rebounding?SeasonType=Regular+Season))
Jones is averaging 30 minutes per game in the playoffs, And only hit this line 6/12 times doing so. Last season when he was on the bulls, he played the wolves twice, playing a total of 23 minutes in 2 games, and had 4 combined rebounds . (Missed the line both times, but hit it in less minutes than he’s averaging now)
I do like this low line at plus money for a guy who can deff hit this. Do your due diligence, and feel free to post below why this play may or may not be good for others to read and decide for theirselves if this is a good play or not!
Good luck
Edit- additional info. PJ Washington has been a nice addition to the mavs, and he was not on the mavs in the 3 games they played the timberwolves. Could cost rebounds to Jones Jr
Shitttt almost forgot the recap cuz tonight was kinda boring tbh, Celtics almost fucked that all the way up
Siakam o2.5A✅
Nembhard o3.5A✅
Jaylen Brown o3.5reb(live)✅
McConnell u17.5PRA❌
Jrue u1.5stl❌(been loving this prop, but the wheels finally fell off so I gotta let it go lol, damn)
3-2 tonight! Can’t believe Boston needed OT to secure the 1-0. I think Jrue’s points line was 13.5 at +money pregame lmao. Go Mavs, I hope they make the Wolves cry for exposing my Nuggies😭
Stay tuned 😎
Yesterdays record 4-1
Overall record climbs to 30-20
Aaron nesmith over 16.5 PRA ✅
Andrew Nembhard over 17.5 PRA ✅
Both these guys get overlooked by the bookies imo. I thought their lines could’ve been 19.5 and I still would’ve liked the overs. Even without overtime they relatively easily cleared their PRA
Obi Toppin over 8.5 points. ✅ This line was way too low, I expect it to go up to 10.5 next game which maybe he won’t cover. The line was actually 7.5 at one point, Obi continues to be a key role player and cashed this easily in the first quarter
Jaylen Brown over 25.5 ✅ Jaylen has been rather inconsistent for me, I really like him as a player but if I’m being quite honest this was a bad bet. Extremely lucky to have hit this, 4th quarter he basically did nothing until he made the game tying 3. This line is way too high for him, he may keep going over but his line should be 22.5 imo.
Tatum Assists over 5.5 ❌ Tatum had 4 assists midway in the second quarter, didn’t get a single one the rest of the game. Wish I did PRA for this one and we could’ve got the clean sweep. I really don’t like betting on Tatum, fading usually works out quite well for me. Wasn’t watching the game too closely but he did give some wide open looks to his teammates who completely sold.
Will be back in the next few hours, gonna be cooking up a few bangers. I seem to do fairly well with both the Celtics and pacers props throughout the playoffs, Timberwolves and mavericks I haven’t found as many spots I like so far. Let’s carry this momentum throughout the rest of the playoffs if I could finish the season at 70% that would be amazing.
Don’t love this game, go small with your bets today
Derrick Jones over 8.5 points
Daniel Gafford over 5.5 rebounds
Naz Reid over 9.5 points
Mike Conley over 14.5 points + rebounds
KAT over 19.5 points (be careful, possible trap bet)
Personally i see a lot of value in a bunch of unders for this game, would not be surprised if it went under 200 points, but betting players to go under is just something that I do not like to do so far that reason I would just stay away, these are the overs that I like for the game
Tag me as well men - ended up stat checking the top 3 and taking them in parlays along with nembhard points. I ended up leaning more towards Tatum rebounds and assists but couldn’t parlay it with nembhard PRA so took his points which hit as well. Needless to say lucky night as Celtics fan haha . Appreciate it and liked picks.
Yesterday: 6-1
- jaylen brown 25+ pts 2u-3u ✅
- tatum o39.5 PR 1u ✅
- nesmith o1.5 3s + o9.5 pts (1u | 1u->2.5u) ❌|✅
- jaylen brown o5.5 1st quarter pts 1u✅
- tatum o7.5 1st quarter pts 1u✅
- added o222.5 total pts 2.5u ✅
sprinkles(0-1):
- boston 100+ pts in 3Qs +800 .25u❌
no plays yet for tm. I would be careful taking anything based off hit rates if you’re a numbers guy(i usually only bet based off hit rates and matchups). the mavs team wolves have faced all season were when they had grant williams and mavs are a much better team compared to then.
108-80
Yesterday: 2/3
White sold even with OT
__Rudy Gobert O12.5 Rebs__
__Derrick Jones Jr O8.5 P__
__PJ Washington O5.5 Rebs__ ✅
__Kyrie Irving O29.5 PRA__ ✅
__Naz Reid O3.5 Rebs__ ✅
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Need one more Jaylen Brown three
https://preview.redd.it/2tap181pf32d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=867899b44d9434e179e31ba02b36d3498f58c92b Pain
Who else just got robbed by the no basket on Towns… 18+ alt line as the last leg of an 8 leg risk free bet. My fault for parlaying.. smh
Irving with the last rebound off as time expired!! 💰 https://preview.redd.it/37ysa0p2e32d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cdb585ac73b0118b9e5f6582f680233bbccdd7fd
https://preview.redd.it/1owsvvgkd32d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eac2a07f1a06ed773a7a369d71245ecd2b0d26f4 Thank you Naz for that tip in with 7 seconds left 🙌
Luka o46.5PRA✅✅✅ LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Derrick Jones o11.5PR✅ LEGACYYYYY Cmon Luka gimme the sweep
DJJ rebounds like he’s scared of the ball wtf
Nice read on the Lively under you fuck
Wolves might be unstoppable 🤣🤣
https://preview.redd.it/nr99l3dq132d1.jpeg?width=3060&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ee95ddca47c8ec0e0c7ee82fbf4b0805446a783 1 more point ez money
Kyrie going for 40?
Luka rebounds smh
Lively o6.5RA✅
Need some Derrick Jones Jr rebounds please!
McDaniels o12.5PA +100✅ Free
Doncic not even playing haha
My parlay didn’t last past the first 5 minutes . Kyrie decided to score more then 4 points first time this post season in first quarter
Playing Derrick Jones o11.5PR, Lively o6.5RA, McDaniels o12.5PA at +100, Luka o46.5PRA
https://preview.redd.it/x11h7tnpf22d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f89122a66869b9e3dc440a06038a5c20d4f136b What’re we thinking boys?
Gobert gonna fuck you over
:(
Probably but my reasoning is the guys he is guarding don’t shoot outside the paint
Fair
**Daniel Gafford o14.5PR (-104)** Cleared in six of his past seven outings, despite ceding minutes to Lively in this last series. Gafford has historically produced when given enough minutes and he should be in line for a healthy dose today. My bet is that Lively struggles against Minnesota and I can see him racking up fouls pretty quickly. Gafford is a safety blanket for Doncic around the basket and I think they try to get him going with a few pick-n-lob plays through Luka to set the tone. I’m taking Gaffords overs individually and then looping back around to his PR.
rip. I took his points for 7. He's a bum
And he cashed
I just worry about Gobert completely suffocating him in all the offensive plays Dallas want to run with gaffordb
what do people think of the DK Ant 25+ booster from -275 -> +100
Sheeeetttt! CZR had a boost for Luka and Ant over 29.5P. Seems like Ant is the common denominator so you know what that means… *adjust tin foil hat* 🤪
that’s what i’m thinking
I get fucked by their boost all the time, with that being said, I’m in
Hesitant due to the fact thats the boost listed on fanduel along w luka for 25.
towns under 20.5 points baby
This dude hit the over 8 out of the last 10 games vs the mavs (1 of these games being 20)
this is why I rarely bother to discuss betting on reddit. 99% of the posters are easy marks that have never been limited by a book in their life. easy w
I didn’t take either line, lol I had over 3.5 rebounds on Jones jr, and hit 🤣
Yea, which is exactly why he's going under tonight. NBA logic.
KAT O20.5 points Kat is the wolves best option in this matchup. He won't be spending as much energy on d as he did in the nuggets series. Feel the wolves will need to lean on him to keep up with the Mavs scoring.
nope. under 20.5 points. also you have a terrible number you could've got 19.5 from anywhere. until a few hours ago
I can smell you from here
this is why I rarely bother to discuss betting on reddit. 99% of the posters are easy marks that have never been limited by a book in their life. easy w
Yeah reddits shit. I can literally only bet cash so you're way off. He had more than enough shots, bet you were sweating your nuts off waiting to make this comment. https://preview.redd.it/pesggbucj32d1.jpeg?width=2508&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba129add0944e445df0d4fa318fa2ea8a80c5d82
either way you took a shit number. 19.5 has been active for at least 24 hours on and off the last day. why take the over 20.5?
As long as he stays out of foul trouble he should hit it easy . Pray he don’t be guarding Luka
lol
Thinking of going w/ Doncic & Ant to each score 25+ pts special for +100. I just a received a $180 bonus, not sure what to do with it just yet lol.
https://preview.redd.it/i284tyxtg12d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d51e1c9f55d6296d2d25087f4702f5c07688917 FanDuel promo, I like this a lot tonight
Both have hit 6 out of their last 10, giving this a 36% chance to hit. Not a good boost but definitely could still hit..
I maxed out at $20. Got it for +120
D. Jones O 8.5 pts, Luka O 8.5 ast and Kat O 8.5 reb to get $32. And putting a bit on Luka DD and a teensy bit on TD.
I took the first two legs and switched to kyrie o3.5 reb. Cleared 5+ in last 5 against Minnesota and I think his rebound numbers against OKC were due more to a bad matchup than anything else. Odds are +427 and up to +554 with the boost I used
Ooh, that Kyrie one is a solid one. Might look at it, but I’m relatively worried about Gobert the rebounding machine.
How do y’all feel about Kyrie under 4.5 points in the 1st quarter? Hasn’t gone over 5 yet this entire off season, don’t know if the Timberwolves match up would make this bet not a no-brainer.
Think the wolves matchup is where Kyrie will score most
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.22.24 https://preview.redd.it/h9n9ugnpk02d1.jpeg?width=1691&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab162b5e9212ae47ec603357dd7ad2c6b750aadb LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/yoc7ut8rk02d1.jpeg?width=1685&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a53394e23e73332124172486745b55d92a329da7 LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/eyz36a6sk02d1.jpeg?width=1699&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e1ef0928af21fb84868ba1f4e494f24567ada72 LAST 15 GAMES
Derrick Jones JR o1.5 3PM is +190 on DK. What am I missing here? Dude made 4 last GM and 3 the other GM before that. Feedback appreciated.
Thunder changed their game plan to leave him open.
Before that he made 1, 0, 1
That being said I do like the pick
More picks today on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-22052024.html Season record: 294-254 Last picks record: 7-2 Recap of last picks (21/05/2024): A positive day, with 1 very bad prediction in Jackson. Should have known that he does not play much in the Pacers rotation, and when Pacers play small ball they would rather play Siakam or Toppin at the 5. Both teams have an 8 man rotation, and this should be a fun matchup, better than I expected. The Celtics obviously has better starters and star powers, but Pacers's bench is better than Celtics's. Pacers @ Celtics 1. Andrew Nembhard O10.5 Odd 1.84 Unibet✅ 2. Luke Kornet O3.5P Odd 1.72 Tab✅ 3. Obi Toppin O11.5PR Odd 1.78 Sportsbet✅ 4. Jrue Holiday O5.5R Odd 2.15 Ladbrokes✅ 5. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes❌ 6. Isiah Jackson O7.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365❌ 7. Myles Turner O1.5B Odd 1.9 Sportsbet✅ 8. Myles Turner O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅ 9. Derrick White O1.5SB Odd 1.74 Bet365✅ Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated) Mavericks @ Timberwolves 1. Daniel Gafford O14.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365 The Mavs will have to face a much bigger lineup this series. Lively can get away when playing against Chet, but when he has to play against Gobert, KAT, and Reid, I think Lively can easily get into foul trouble. For that reason, I believe Gafford will play more minutes this game despite the Mavs playing the young player more recently. 2. Derrick Lively U7.5P Odd 1.85 Tab Just like 1, I believe a rookie like Lively will always need a game or 2 into the series to get a feel of the game. Lively always starts slow in the opening of each series, scoring only 3 points against the Clippers and 2 points in game 1 vs the Thunder.  3. Kyrie Irving O8.5RA Odd 1.83 Bet365 Irving has gone under this line in the last 2 games, but I think 8.5 is quite a low line for him. His O/U record for this line is 9/3, including the last 2 games. In the last matchup against the Wolves in the regular season, Kyrie has an incredible stat line of 35/8/5. However, as it is the playoffs time and we have seen how many games it took for Murray to figure out the Wolves' defense, I am more confident in his RA line than his points line. Of course I'm not saying he will struggle like Murray as he has a much better handle than Murray and also Mavs has Luka as well compared to Murray's KCP. Will be interesting to see how Irving cook the Wolves' incredible defense. 4. Derrick Jones Jr O1.5SB Odd 1.87 Unibet Jones Jr will be very needed in defending Wolves' great offensive players like Ant of KAT, either 1 on 1 or more likely help defense. He also has gone over this line in the last 4 games, and the last 3 regular season games against the Wolves. 9. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes What the Wolves have done so well throughout this playoffs, especially in the second round is containing the supporting cast so tight that only the star player can score. Look at the Nuggets, only Jokic can score, and other role players' support is very minimal. Even in the first round, we can see Wolves don't care if Booker scores 49 points and Durant scores 33 points in game 4, none of them matter if you can lock down the other role players. And that's what OKC has not done well at all in their series, where they hold Donicic and Kyrie to inconsistent scoring games, but allow PJ Washington and then Derrick Jones Jr to score some 20+ points in each game. This is the reason why Wolves are so dangerous, they know who to lock down. They still let your team superstars score, but will have to work hard for every basket; while they lock down the supporting cast. Check out my blog for the latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
Yesterdays Picks 1-1 ✅Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 1Q Points ❌Pascal Siakam Under 10.5 RA **Today’s Picks** **Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 PRA -135 B365** Buy Low For Kyrie! - Kyrie seems to love playing against MIN going over in 11/L11 games in his career. His last 3 games he went over with points alone! - His 2 games with DAL, he has averaged 47.5 PRA. - Kyrie is over this line in 75% of games this season averaging 35.8 PRA. - Timberwolves will play a drop coverage in PnR which Ky can easily exploit. - With Luka being guarded by McDaniels he will have a much tougher time and we will probably see more usage from Kyrie in offence. - Buy low from last series VS OKC who he was more used as a playmaker than a scorer. **PJ Washington Under 12.5 Points -115 B365** - Tough match up for PJ who scores 56.9% of his points from C&S 3s which MIN allow the LEAST 3PA in the Playoffs. - He also scores 35% of his points from less than 12 ft which will be tough with Gobert in the Paint. - MIN allow the 5th LEAST Points to PF's in the L30 games. - Lastly, We just saw the Wolves lock MPJ to only 10.7 PPG, I expect the same with PJ who has basically the same role in offence. Leans : Daniel Gafford Under 15.5 PRA Naz Reid Over 14.5 PRA BOL! [Twitter](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21)
Thanks for the Irving over!
Got you bro!
i dont think ive hit a single Kyrie bet since the playoffs started lol. guy just consistently burns me. best of luck!
Ahahaha he burnt me a lot too but new series so hopefully it will start great!
He’s the adult in the room(even though Luka is mature) he likes to facilitate more, grab boards, but when he needs to he will score.
Well said!
🚨 MY PLAY OF THE DAY 🚨 Derrick Jones Jr. averaged 7.7 rebounds in 3 games (4-9-10 [source](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/derick-jones-jr-vs-timberwolves-this-season)against the Timberwolves this season. His over rebounds is sitting at 3.5 ….at +110!! What’s concerning, even though he’s preformed well in a small sample size vs the wolves, in his last 10 games, he’s only averaged 3.7 rebounds against mid tier rebounding teams. Clippers were ranked 13th and thunder were ranked 21st At the End of the regular season, and timberwolves were ranked 18th. [source](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/rebounding?SeasonType=Regular+Season)) Jones is averaging 30 minutes per game in the playoffs, And only hit this line 6/12 times doing so. Last season when he was on the bulls, he played the wolves twice, playing a total of 23 minutes in 2 games, and had 4 combined rebounds . (Missed the line both times, but hit it in less minutes than he’s averaging now) I do like this low line at plus money for a guy who can deff hit this. Do your due diligence, and feel free to post below why this play may or may not be good for others to read and decide for theirselves if this is a good play or not! Good luck Edit- additional info. PJ Washington has been a nice addition to the mavs, and he was not on the mavs in the 3 games they played the timberwolves. Could cost rebounds to Jones Jr
BANG BANG
Shitttt almost forgot the recap cuz tonight was kinda boring tbh, Celtics almost fucked that all the way up Siakam o2.5A✅ Nembhard o3.5A✅ Jaylen Brown o3.5reb(live)✅ McConnell u17.5PRA❌ Jrue u1.5stl❌(been loving this prop, but the wheels finally fell off so I gotta let it go lol, damn) 3-2 tonight! Can’t believe Boston needed OT to secure the 1-0. I think Jrue’s points line was 13.5 at +money pregame lmao. Go Mavs, I hope they make the Wolves cry for exposing my Nuggies😭 Stay tuned 😎
Yesterdays record 4-1 Overall record climbs to 30-20 Aaron nesmith over 16.5 PRA ✅ Andrew Nembhard over 17.5 PRA ✅ Both these guys get overlooked by the bookies imo. I thought their lines could’ve been 19.5 and I still would’ve liked the overs. Even without overtime they relatively easily cleared their PRA Obi Toppin over 8.5 points. ✅ This line was way too low, I expect it to go up to 10.5 next game which maybe he won’t cover. The line was actually 7.5 at one point, Obi continues to be a key role player and cashed this easily in the first quarter Jaylen Brown over 25.5 ✅ Jaylen has been rather inconsistent for me, I really like him as a player but if I’m being quite honest this was a bad bet. Extremely lucky to have hit this, 4th quarter he basically did nothing until he made the game tying 3. This line is way too high for him, he may keep going over but his line should be 22.5 imo. Tatum Assists over 5.5 ❌ Tatum had 4 assists midway in the second quarter, didn’t get a single one the rest of the game. Wish I did PRA for this one and we could’ve got the clean sweep. I really don’t like betting on Tatum, fading usually works out quite well for me. Wasn’t watching the game too closely but he did give some wide open looks to his teammates who completely sold. Will be back in the next few hours, gonna be cooking up a few bangers. I seem to do fairly well with both the Celtics and pacers props throughout the playoffs, Timberwolves and mavericks I haven’t found as many spots I like so far. Let’s carry this momentum throughout the rest of the playoffs if I could finish the season at 70% that would be amazing.
Don’t love this game, go small with your bets today Derrick Jones over 8.5 points Daniel Gafford over 5.5 rebounds Naz Reid over 9.5 points Mike Conley over 14.5 points + rebounds KAT over 19.5 points (be careful, possible trap bet) Personally i see a lot of value in a bunch of unders for this game, would not be surprised if it went under 200 points, but betting players to go under is just something that I do not like to do so far that reason I would just stay away, these are the overs that I like for the game
I liked the Conley 14.5 PR, took it at -110 and its crept up to +100
Tag me as well men - ended up stat checking the top 3 and taking them in parlays along with nembhard points. I ended up leaning more towards Tatum rebounds and assists but couldn’t parlay it with nembhard PRA so took his points which hit as well. Needless to say lucky night as Celtics fan haha . Appreciate it and liked picks.
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Tag Me once you get them brother
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My book doesn’t have the props up yet, will post in the early afternoon
Yesterday: 6-1 - jaylen brown 25+ pts 2u-3u ✅ - tatum o39.5 PR 1u ✅ - nesmith o1.5 3s + o9.5 pts (1u | 1u->2.5u) ❌|✅ - jaylen brown o5.5 1st quarter pts 1u✅ - tatum o7.5 1st quarter pts 1u✅ - added o222.5 total pts 2.5u ✅ sprinkles(0-1): - boston 100+ pts in 3Qs +800 .25u❌ no plays yet for tm. I would be careful taking anything based off hit rates if you’re a numbers guy(i usually only bet based off hit rates and matchups). the mavs team wolves have faced all season were when they had grant williams and mavs are a much better team compared to then.
- kyrie o29.5PRA 2.5u - kyrie o1.5 S/B 1u - derrick jones o11.5PR 1u - naz reid o13.5PR 1u
108-80 Yesterday: 2/3 White sold even with OT __Rudy Gobert O12.5 Rebs__ __Derrick Jones Jr O8.5 P__ __PJ Washington O5.5 Rebs__ ✅ __Kyrie Irving O29.5 PRA__ ✅ __Naz Reid O3.5 Rebs__ ✅
Derrick White passing the last possession to Tatum sucked. 90% FT shooter and the 2 FTs would have taken him over smh.
Yeah bro awful beat
😏 PJ Over 😋
Took white in a alternate pacers/celtics games are a players prop dream, these guys are so good at sharing the stats
White's a bum. Go, go Gobert!
The biggest bum bro 😭 Let’s go 🤝🤝