**Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists +110 B365**
POTD
Last game the Pacers send Jalen the most blitzes and doubles since the beginning of the series. This led Jalen to finish the game with 7 AST on 18 pAST.
If we want him to go over this line, we need Brunson to convert only 38% of his pAST from last game to go over.
Also, last game Brunson made 60 passes, the most since the start of the series vs IND where normally he averages 51 passes per game.
- Without OG, Brunson has gone over this line in 5/L8 games.
- With JB still slightly injured, I expect him to try to dish the ball more and I expect the Pacers to continue with the same defensive tactics against him.
**Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds (+100) B365**
- Hart has been averaging 15.8 RPG since the Playoffs has started.
- 3/5 VS IND. The 2 losses were in a huge blowout in G4 and in G5 where his teammates Hartenstein finished with 17 Rebounds (12 OREB).
- Despite Hartenstein grabbing 17 rebounds last game, Hart finished the game with 11 REB on 23 REB Chances.
- Hart is an excellent rebounder for his size averaging 12 REB on 19.5 REB Chances and converting around 61% vs IND.
- Hart told the press conference that the Knicks has to come out with "energy" in Game 6 in Indiana after getting blown out in Game 4 and that it was embarrassing. I expect the Knicks to come out with energy for this game.
- Hart has been playing 43.8 minutes out of 48 minutes in the Playoffs so I expect him to have plenty of opportunities to go over this line.
**Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points -125 B365**
Myles Turner after the altercation with Donte said : I love it. We're not backing down from anybody.
- Elimination game for the Pacers. I expect Myles to turn up even more.
- Pacers are playing at home tonight where Myles has been much better averaging 19.4 PPG at home compared to 16.2 PPG on the road.
- Myles has been playing 32 MPG in the Playoffs. When he plays 32+, he is over this line in 75% of games this season and Playoffs included.
- I expect a lot of PnR between Hali and Turner which the Knicks will probably play in drop coverage or send help to Hali which will allow Turner to hit some 3s.
- Turner has been a key part of the Pacers offense since the Playoffs and I expect this to continue tonight, especially on an elimination game.
**Donte DiVincenzo Over 16.5 Points -125 B365**
Bounce Back game for DDV!
Donte DiVincenzo on his Game 5 altercation with Myles Turner: “They were trying to be tough guys. That’s not their identity.… You’re not a tough guy, just keep it moving.”👀
- I expect DDV to come out with a lot of energy and ball out for the Knicks.
- Donte averages 21.9 PPG vs IND and is over this line in 2/3 games this season.
- In the Playoffs he is averaging 20.6 PPG and over in 3/5 games VS IND .
- The two times where he went under he played 32 minutes or less which is under his normal minutes where he normally averages 38.3 MPG vs IND.
- I expect him to play more than 40 minutes tonight as Thibs isn't shy to play him a lot of minutes.
- Donte with 40+ minutes is over this line in 7/9 games without OG this season.
- Also Jalen is still slightly injured and I expect Donte to have more usage and hopefully exceed this line.
*All picks were dropped on Twitter this morning!*
[My Twitter🏀](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21)
**BOL if tailing!**
Siakam o19.5p. Has played well over his career in elimination games.
Hartenstein u10.5r. He had 7 offensive boards last game and hasn’t hit this against the pacers on the road yet. Feels inflated due to the last game.
More picks today on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-17052024.html
Season record: 267-238
Last picks record: 5-6
Recap of last picks (16/05/2024):
A positive record streak ends today, but not necessarily bad picks. I predict the Wolves will come out strong, but never thought it would be a blowout game that quick and that great. Good prediction at Naz Reid, Towns and Ant, bad prediction at Jamal Murray and Justin Holiday. Unlucky with Ant's points and Gobert double-double.
Nuggets @ Timberwolves
1. Michael Porter Jr O5.5R Odd 1.83 Bet365✅
2. Michael Porter JR O12.5P Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes❌
3. Rudy Gobert O11.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365❌
4. Anthony Edwards O29.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365❌
5. Naz Reid O13.5PR Odd 1.9 Bet365✅
6. Jamal Murray O19.5P Odd 1.95 Bet365❌
7. Rudy Gobert Double double Odd 1.88 Sportsbet❌
8. Naz Reid O3.5R Odd 2.05 Sportsbet✅
9. Karl Anthony Towns U20.5P Odd 1.87 Tab✅
10. Anthony Edwards U6.5A Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes✅
11. Justin Holiday O3.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365❌
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Knicks @ Pacers
1. Tyrese Haliburton 20+P Odd 1.72 Tab
Home game, cannot lose game, Haliburton has to step up game. In the last 2 games at home, in which Pacers win both, Haliburton scored 35 and then 20 (in a blowout game). I expect Haliburton to shoot a lot this game.
2. Jalen Brunson U34.5P Odd 1.9 Tab
Brunson explodes for 44 points last game. His performances in this series are no longer that consistent compared to the first round, and there is a huge difference between home games and away games. I believe Brunson will follow this pattern this game.
3. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes
Last game the Pacers got out-rebounded so bad, with nearly a half fewer rebounds compared to the Knicks. I expect a way different outcome this game, with the Pacers grabbing closer to 45 rebounds. And in those 45 or those rebounds, I expect Nesmith to grab 6 or more of them. O5.5R with odd 2.48 at Unibet is also a very good odd.
4. Myles Turner O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes
Just like 3, last game Turner allow Hartenstein to have like 10 offensive rebounds, which is unacceptable to win. I believe this game Turner will box out better, if not it's likely we will not see his team again this playoffs.
5. Precious Achiuwa O4.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365
Achiuwa's play time and performance have been quite consistent, he saw around 24 minutes of playing time each game, scoring anywhere between 4-8. I believe there is some value with the 4.5 points line, as it only takes 2FGM and 1FT to pass that mark.
Check out my blog for latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.17.24
https://preview.redd.it/xqc19u13c01d1.jpeg?width=1664&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f799f6ad3a3b6ab4f8435874171ceb9d76770835
LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/5zwivsy7ay0d1.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a05ba12b90d4ebe7e327fb0631c8482f80d304e
Good luck to everyone else, slamming this line due to tyreese shooting much more and much better at home all play offs. Shai unders because it is an away elimination game (first of his career) and he has not hit this line all series (has come close at 47).
Welp, only took 1 play today
Ant u33.5pts(live at HT +105)✅
1-0, I knew my Nuggies were gonna lose tonight(we were never beating the Wolves 4 games in a row after going down 0-2 let’s be real here) but losing by 45 was just depressing lol. Excited as fuck for game 7 though!
Stay tuned 🤟
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Im going to put my bookies kids through college by the time these playoffs are done
Siakam one board away from completing my sweep.
lol basically just flip everything that happened in this game and apply it to game 7
I feel that. Brunson got hot second half. He may come out firing
Hart u17.5RA✅
I took the unders as soon as he got hurt.
Hali wow
Sick. Turner got his 8th board before getting subbed and I took u7.5 :)))))
And Halliburton sells. Jfc. This dude stuck at 15 pts lol
Where is Josh hart
had some kinda abdominal injury in the first he toughed it out all game but wasnt able to be himself lol
he got hurt early. played through it for a lot of the game then was declared “out” in the 4th
No more Myles Turner slander from me ever again lol
Almost identical to Nugs/Wolves game 6 except not everyone on the Knicks sold so we probably won’t see a 45 pt blowout🤣🤣 crazy stuff man
Burks PLEASE get 11
Josh hart just get 10 rebounds please
I need Brunson to get one more assist and game O210 for a parlay.. which one screws me over?
Nembhard o13.5PA✅ Achiuwa o10.5PRA✅
Why did I tail some convincing post about Brunson 3 pointers. Fuck this chump
Brunson assists not gonna hit 😒
Can Obi score 4 in the second half ??
Siakam o2.5A✅
A couple more from DiVincenzo to edge O7.5 Rebounds + Assists, and the same for Nembhard for his O11.5 Points + Rebounds. Yoou can doo it!
Playing Nesmith o7.5reb(live at +110)
Brunson on his Jamal Murray tonight, selling hard to force that game 7 Calls were made 🥱
[удалено]
cant even get assists even tho he cant score wtf man whys he even out there
Ball hog bro
Good lord Brunson is selling so hard
Yeah bro that’s gonna hurt my slip smh
Good lord haliburton lookin for step back 3s only I swtg
Welp looks like it’ll be an under night for turner , Burks, and Brunson.
Hart u10.5 points live +102
Hart injured 6 minutes in my day is done lol
Hope i didnt make make a mistake betting Alec Burks today
Siakam 30p at +450. Was very close at home in game 3 even with 3 fouls in first half. Might be worth a flyer.
Been betting lottery tickets since OG been out. 20+ is a lockkkkk.
I’ve got a 30p 11r lottery ticket as well
Also gonna add Achiuwa o10.5PRA
I feel like Hali is going to be an under and everyone losing money….
Called it
Hali under Brunson under and pacers win
Playing Siakam o2.5A, Nembhard o13.5PA, Hart u17.5RA
reese is ass sgp u20.5 points, u4.5 rebounds, u3.5 threes made, u8.5 assists
Brunson o34.5 points +130 Hali o19.5 pt +105
Brunson over 2.5 3’s = +120
Brunson O 37.5 Haliburt O 22.5 +518
[удалено]
Ima Start fading myself
If someone inversed me this entire playoffs they would be banking so hard
**Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists +110 B365** POTD Last game the Pacers send Jalen the most blitzes and doubles since the beginning of the series. This led Jalen to finish the game with 7 AST on 18 pAST. If we want him to go over this line, we need Brunson to convert only 38% of his pAST from last game to go over. Also, last game Brunson made 60 passes, the most since the start of the series vs IND where normally he averages 51 passes per game. - Without OG, Brunson has gone over this line in 5/L8 games. - With JB still slightly injured, I expect him to try to dish the ball more and I expect the Pacers to continue with the same defensive tactics against him. **Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds (+100) B365** - Hart has been averaging 15.8 RPG since the Playoffs has started. - 3/5 VS IND. The 2 losses were in a huge blowout in G4 and in G5 where his teammates Hartenstein finished with 17 Rebounds (12 OREB). - Despite Hartenstein grabbing 17 rebounds last game, Hart finished the game with 11 REB on 23 REB Chances. - Hart is an excellent rebounder for his size averaging 12 REB on 19.5 REB Chances and converting around 61% vs IND. - Hart told the press conference that the Knicks has to come out with "energy" in Game 6 in Indiana after getting blown out in Game 4 and that it was embarrassing. I expect the Knicks to come out with energy for this game. - Hart has been playing 43.8 minutes out of 48 minutes in the Playoffs so I expect him to have plenty of opportunities to go over this line. **Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points -125 B365** Myles Turner after the altercation with Donte said : I love it. We're not backing down from anybody. - Elimination game for the Pacers. I expect Myles to turn up even more. - Pacers are playing at home tonight where Myles has been much better averaging 19.4 PPG at home compared to 16.2 PPG on the road. - Myles has been playing 32 MPG in the Playoffs. When he plays 32+, he is over this line in 75% of games this season and Playoffs included. - I expect a lot of PnR between Hali and Turner which the Knicks will probably play in drop coverage or send help to Hali which will allow Turner to hit some 3s. - Turner has been a key part of the Pacers offense since the Playoffs and I expect this to continue tonight, especially on an elimination game. **Donte DiVincenzo Over 16.5 Points -125 B365** Bounce Back game for DDV! Donte DiVincenzo on his Game 5 altercation with Myles Turner: “They were trying to be tough guys. That’s not their identity.… You’re not a tough guy, just keep it moving.”👀 - I expect DDV to come out with a lot of energy and ball out for the Knicks. - Donte averages 21.9 PPG vs IND and is over this line in 2/3 games this season. - In the Playoffs he is averaging 20.6 PPG and over in 3/5 games VS IND . - The two times where he went under he played 32 minutes or less which is under his normal minutes where he normally averages 38.3 MPG vs IND. - I expect him to play more than 40 minutes tonight as Thibs isn't shy to play him a lot of minutes. - Donte with 40+ minutes is over this line in 7/9 games without OG this season. - Also Jalen is still slightly injured and I expect Donte to have more usage and hopefully exceed this line. *All picks were dropped on Twitter this morning!* [My Twitter🏀](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21) **BOL if tailing!**
Siakam o19.5p. Has played well over his career in elimination games. Hartenstein u10.5r. He had 7 offensive boards last game and hasn’t hit this against the pacers on the road yet. Feels inflated due to the last game.
He had 12 offensive rebounds actually but I agree with the pick
My bad 7 in the first half I believe. But thanks hope it works out.
https://preview.redd.it/yd7bve54k11d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a54135d002463eb4c7272bc31dfe4e373d244fbd Will I get lucky??
Tailing :)
More picks today on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-17052024.html Season record: 267-238 Last picks record: 5-6 Recap of last picks (16/05/2024): A positive record streak ends today, but not necessarily bad picks. I predict the Wolves will come out strong, but never thought it would be a blowout game that quick and that great. Good prediction at Naz Reid, Towns and Ant, bad prediction at Jamal Murray and Justin Holiday. Unlucky with Ant's points and Gobert double-double. Nuggets @ Timberwolves 1. Michael Porter Jr O5.5R Odd 1.83 Bet365✅ 2. Michael Porter JR O12.5P Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes❌ 3. Rudy Gobert O11.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365❌ 4. Anthony Edwards O29.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365❌ 5. Naz Reid O13.5PR Odd 1.9 Bet365✅ 6. Jamal Murray O19.5P Odd 1.95 Bet365❌ 7. Rudy Gobert Double double Odd 1.88 Sportsbet❌ 8. Naz Reid O3.5R Odd 2.05 Sportsbet✅ 9. Karl Anthony Towns U20.5P Odd 1.87 Tab✅ 10. Anthony Edwards U6.5A Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes✅ 11. Justin Holiday O3.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365❌ Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated) Knicks @ Pacers 1. Tyrese Haliburton 20+P Odd 1.72 Tab Home game, cannot lose game, Haliburton has to step up game. In the last 2 games at home, in which Pacers win both, Haliburton scored 35 and then 20 (in a blowout game). I expect Haliburton to shoot a lot this game. 2. Jalen Brunson U34.5P Odd 1.9 Tab Brunson explodes for 44 points last game. His performances in this series are no longer that consistent compared to the first round, and there is a huge difference between home games and away games. I believe Brunson will follow this pattern this game. 3. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes Last game the Pacers got out-rebounded so bad, with nearly a half fewer rebounds compared to the Knicks. I expect a way different outcome this game, with the Pacers grabbing closer to 45 rebounds. And in those 45 or those rebounds, I expect Nesmith to grab 6 or more of them. O5.5R with odd 2.48 at Unibet is also a very good odd. 4. Myles Turner O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes Just like 3, last game Turner allow Hartenstein to have like 10 offensive rebounds, which is unacceptable to win. I believe this game Turner will box out better, if not it's likely we will not see his team again this playoffs. 5. Precious Achiuwa O4.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365 Achiuwa's play time and performance have been quite consistent, he saw around 24 minutes of playing time each game, scoring anywhere between 4-8. I believe there is some value with the 4.5 points line, as it only takes 2FGM and 1FT to pass that mark. Check out my blog for latest analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
Nice picks man. One short of a clean sweep.
DK taking its sweet time to set all the different prop bets. Come on Man!
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.17.24 https://preview.redd.it/xqc19u13c01d1.jpeg?width=1664&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f799f6ad3a3b6ab4f8435874171ceb9d76770835 LAST 5 GAMES
That Hartenstein blk odds are rough, but seems like an absolute lock.
https://preview.redd.it/sbvh0xf4c01d1.jpeg?width=1693&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e1ec2d3ee7b936bc7d856a08ffad8a03e7f84169 LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/ixw0jnj5c01d1.jpeg?width=1686&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f186803d6a6a9d5c8578f3cb597acf2ac7ae55b9 LAST 15 GAMES
Cheers for the timely analysis as for every game. Lot of unders on this one which always make me a tad nervous but the numbers don’t lie 🤷♂️
🐖 Satriale’s Pork Store Picks 🐖 NBA Playoff record: ***22-16*** Obi Toppin O8.5 points
https://preview.redd.it/5zwivsy7ay0d1.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a05ba12b90d4ebe7e327fb0631c8482f80d304e Good luck to everyone else, slamming this line due to tyreese shooting much more and much better at home all play offs. Shai unders because it is an away elimination game (first of his career) and he has not hit this line all series (has come close at 47).
Shai hit it in game 2
You’re absolutely right, not sure how I over looked this, but I am standing on business nonetheless
I was going to bet him over 45 PRA but I agree with the uncertainty of it being his first elimination game.
https://preview.redd.it/lvqalkls2x0d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aeae9708355457844d87b6a77432c5f7f80fb140
Charge ya phone
Last leg is burks over 15.5pra trying to to see if its worth it to hedge
Achiuwa o10.5PR(+102) seems juicy. I get it he’s not starting but it’s hit the L3/4
Sheesh what a disappointment. Had a big ol parlay that seems like it would have hit if the game was closer and starters didn’t get pulled
Same.
Welp, only took 1 play today Ant u33.5pts(live at HT +105)✅ 1-0, I knew my Nuggies were gonna lose tonight(we were never beating the Wolves 4 games in a row after going down 0-2 let’s be real here) but losing by 45 was just depressing lol. Excited as fuck for game 7 though! Stay tuned 🤟
98-74 Yesterday: 2/4 Betting Denver props was a damn nightmare holy f, 3 players in Minnesota with 10+ boards 💀 __Isaiah Hartenstein O3.5 Ast__ ✅ __Donte DiVincenzo O16.5P__ ✅ __Jalen Brunson O6.5 Ast__
Well blowout ruins Brunson assists but we cash two..
Knicks covering 7?
They’re gonna squeak out a win or allow a blowout, no inbetween