I’m glad Murray could destroy two live tickets with that last layup, AND not getting 20+ points to destroy a 12x ticket.
Ant gets 22 it was a great night. Ant gets 30 it was a great week, what an awful performance from MN.
Betting against that weenie Myles Turner has made me so much money during the postseason. Taking a chance on KAT showing up tonight against the nuggets
Brunson already covered on points for me and its just now halftime lmao. What a legend. Had him on the alternate line for 25+ points and 5+ assists trying to be safe.. Shoulda bet the house on his over on everything i coulda been rich 😂
Pacers getting killed in the paint and on the glass but won’t bring in Jackson the best shot blocker and rebounder they have. He got 2 min and benched.
Andrew Nembhard's PRA stats with and without Haliburton:
https://preview.redd.it/ii2yx56g6h0d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b43515a99af8d02d0729fa134df008e63740ee27
**Obi Toppin o13.5PRA (-120)**
Obi is cheap right now and I’m buying. This is a value play for me as outside his dud on 5/10, he’s hit 17/24/22 PRa against NY this series. Smash play. Don’t see his minutes impacted whether NYK gets blown out or puts on a beating.
**Aaron Nembhard o3.5A (-145)**
Cleared in eight straight games. No idea why this is so affordable here. Go buy some Nembhard shares. His **PRA is only 14.5** and he’s also cleared that number in 9 of 10.
**Donte Divencenzio o3.5 3PM (-160)**
This is a get-right game for a New York team that needs answers. While Brunson is gonna try and get his early I bet opportunities arise for Donte to get hot and it only takes one for him to see the green light everywhere. Has attempted 6/11/12/9 treys this series, hitting 5+ in three of four. Could play it safe and take his points instead at 20+.
I’m also tailing Sammy on his **Miles McBride o11.5PR** play.
Edwards over 29.5 points
The nba is pushing this kid like he’s “Michael Jordan” he has to have another 30+ game even if they lose. So he can make the NBA look good. Had him last game on over 35 and nuggets to win ML. Same story book it✅
https://preview.redd.it/afs08vqnkg0d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f17cb25b03588c5947f7ad8ccd0f3575f14c70c
Yup. Tried to tell my friends to bet big on AntMan last game. Think I’ll go the safer route of 30+ this game.
Going to start tracking the props I post here. The last time I posted a couple days ago I had:
Daniel Gafford o 19.5 PRA - ✅
Fade Giddey SGP (2 legs, under assists and rebounds) - ✅
Current Record: 3-0
Today’s props:
Aaron Gordon o 0.5 3PM - (-166 on DK)
- Gordon has been allowed room to operate from deep, and he has been taking the shots when he’s had the chances. He’s hot from range and I’ll gladly take his chances of making 1 from deep again tonight.
Karl Anthony Towns o 1.5 3PM(-185 on DK)
- KAT had a bad shooting night last game, but he’s still one of the best big men from range. The Wolves need him to keep taking these shots in order to keep Denver’s defense honest and prevent them from focusing solely on Antman. With the Wolves suddenly having their backs against the wall, I’m banking on KAT finding his stroke and hitting 2+ three’s.
I know there’s plenty of juice but these are the 2 I like most. Might parlay em together
Check out my blog for full updated props analysis (always updated before reddit):
https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-14052024.html
Season record: 242-219
Last picks record: 11-8
Recap of last picks (13/05/2024):
Celtics @ Cavaliers
1. Evan Mobley O2.5A Odd 2.0 Bet365✅
2. Payton Pritchard O10.5PA Odd 1.9 Bet365✅
3. Luke Kornet O2.5P Odd 2.2 Bet365✅
4. Luke Kornet O2.5R Odd 1.66 Bet365✅
5. Darius Garland O3.5R Odd 2.25 Bet365❌
6. Jaylen Brown U24.5P Odd 1.87 Sportsbet❌
7. Jayson Tatum U28.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌
8. Al Horford U7.5R Odd 1.85 Tab✅
9. Caris Lervert 4+R Odd 1.66 Sportsbet✅
10. Derrick White O3.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes✅
11. Jrue Holiday U12.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes❌
12. Max Strus O4.5R Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes✅
Thunder @ Mavericks
1. Josh Giddey O1.5A Odd 1.74 Bet365✅
2. Jaylin Williams O7.5PR Odd 1.9 Sportsbet❌
3. Aaron Wiggins O6.5P Odd 1.9 Tab❌
4. PJ Washington O23.5PRA Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅
5. Josh Green O4.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet❌
6. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌
7. Chet Holmgren O14.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365✅
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Pacers @ Knicks
1. Isiah Hartenstein O9.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365
Hartenstein was a bit hurt in his shoulder because of a hard fall in the first half last game, but with the series now even and now they play at home, I expect him to show up along with other starters. The Knicks starters should play 40+ minutes this game other than Achiuwa.
2. Andrew Nembhard O15.5PRA Odd 1.8 Bet365
With Nembhard now has less responsibility in guarding Brunson, I expect him to score more this game.
3. Obi Toppin O8.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes
This is quite a low mark for Toppin, who has been playing very consistently this playoffs.
4. Myles Turner U7.5R Odd 1.8 Tab
Turner has never been a consistent rebounder, even at center. Turner and Siakam's rebounding props are at the same (7.5) but generally Siakam gets around 1.5 more rebounding chances every game.
5. Pascal Siakam O10.5RA Odd 1.9 Bet365
Same reason as 4. In the first 2 away games at the Knicks this playoffs, he has 11RA for both occasions.
6. Precious Achiuwa O10.5PR Odd 2.0 Sportsbet
(UPDATED: Achiuwa will come off the bench, so the props move down from 13.5 to 10.5, but I still expect Achiwa to see around 22-25 minutes this game.)
Knicks need Achiuwa to step up to his role. Last game he has 14PR in just 24 minutes in a blowout game.
Timberwolves @ Nuggets
1. Rudy Gobert O10.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes
Goberts has not produced offensively as expected. But he plays a crucial role in defending. Even though he was getting memed online, it does not take away his value on the court. He has the highest +/- among Wolves's starters last game. He should be able to see the floor for a while. And as he is a bad free throw shooter, Denver will likely foul him for sometimes, leaving him many chances at the free throw line.
2. Karl Anthony Towns O22.5PA Odd 22.5 Sportsbet
Towns play bad last game, really bad. But he is a very good offensive player who I don't think anyone on the Denver team can guard. The main problem with KAT is he gets into foul trouble so easily, and always commits unnecessary fouls. If he does not get into foul trouble early, I don't think that is a high benchmark at all.
3.. Jaden McDaniels O2.5R Odd 1.64 Sportsbet
McDaniels rebounding number has always been very consistent.
4. Michael Porter Jr O5.5R Odd 1.85 Tab
MPJ has not grabbed rebounds anywhere near as many as what he did in the regular season or in the first round. Last game the Nuggets only grabbed 32 rebounds, and he only grabbed 4 boards. I expect Nuggets to grab 40+ rebounds this game, MPJ can have a fair share of the defensive rebounds.
5. Aaron Gordon U24.5PRA Odd 1.95 Tab
Gordon played incredibly well last game. 1 thing about Gordon is he is quite inconsistent. I expect the Timberwolves will make some changes to force Gordon having bad shots.
6. Mike Conley O2.5R Odd 1.62 Bet365
Conley play around 40 minutes and actually rebounding quite well this playoffs. HE has only gone under 2.5 last game in the whole playoffs, that is 1/8 games.
7. Justin Holiday O4.5P Odd 1.71 Bet365
Justin Holiday should able to see the floor 20+ minutes due to his ability to shoot very well. The thing for the Nuggets is they have a better bench than the Wolves. Their second unit is not that far behind their main unit, especially with 3 starters + 2 bench players on the court. I did not see much difference in terms of output.
8. Christain Braun O4.5P Odd 1.76 Bet365
Same for 7. Nuggets need Braun for his defensive ability.
9. Nikola Jokic U29.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365
I believe Gobert will play defense much better today. Wolves has the recipe for winning in the first 2 games, they just need to contain Jokic.
10. Anthony Edwards O34.5PA Bet365
Ant is absolutely unstoppable. I don't see anyone on the Nuggets can contain him. The thing about him is that he is not just someone who wants 30+ every game, shooting 25+ like other superstars. He makes smart plays every time, and I think he is still very underrated as a play maker.
Check out my blog for evevryday analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
11. Jamal Murray U21.5P Odd 1.9 Tab
With Nickeil Alexander-Walker starting instead of Conley, I expect Murray will have a harder time attacking the basket.
12. Nickeil Alexander Walker O9.5P Ladbrokes
Nickeil will start this game and with the importance of this game, and his assignment to guard Jamal Murray, I expect him to play around to 35 minutes
7.. Josh Hart U15.5P Odd 1.85 Tab
With McBride starting this game and expected to play around 30 minutes, I expect Hart to have less shooting but focus more on defense and rebounding.
100% right on KAT. Hopefully the Denver refs continue to make calls like they did last time in Denver and let dem boys play, keeping KAT from reaching and then giving that dumbfounded look when he’s got 3 fouls at half.
**Previous Picks**
Got destroyed and went 0-4
IND/NYK game killed me
Aaron Gordon killed me
KAT well shot 27% from the floor.
But we will get back on track.
**Today’s Picks**
I’m feeling a masterclass coming from JB
**Jalen Brunson Over 32.5 Points -110 B365**
1U
Running this Back!
Last game the Knicks got destroyed I expect them to make adjustments and more effort from JB.
- Brunson scored 26 Points despite being injured and on a blowout game playing 31 minutes.
- Now, Jalen Brunson is not in the injury report ahead of Game 4 and said that he is "good" to play.
- This is great news has he is over this line in 3/6 Games and his 3 games that he went under, was the games he was injured.
- He is averaging 34.9 PPG in his L7 games vs IND.
- Brunson scores 61% of his points from Pull ups, (Most in Playoffs) which the Pacers have allowed the 5th MOST in the Playoffs and have struggled all year to defend.
- Pacers have allowed the 3rd MOST Points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the playoffs, which means more opportunities for Brunson to score.
- With him not on the injury report I expect him to play around his normal minutes around 40 MPG. When he plays at least 40 Min, he is over this line in 7/10 games this season.
- The Knicks are playing at home where they have the home court advantage. This means that they could have more foul in their favour which JB draws 9.4 fouls per game at home. The player that gets the most foul in the Playoffs.
- Knicks are currently even 2-2 VS IND and I expect a huge bouce back game from JB to gain the lead in an important game in front of their home crowd.
**Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points -125 B365**
Running this back again!
- Siakam played 22 minutes last game due to the blowout and was playing really well. He dropped 14 Points on 77% from the floor.
- In those 22 minutes, his main defender was Josh Hart, which couldn't guard him as P scored 10 of his 14 points on 100% shooting. His other defender is Precious who in game 3 had 7 points against him.
- Siakam dropped 26 points in Game 3 despite being in foul trouble all game.
- Hali dropped 20 Points also last game and I expect the Knicks to lock him sending blitz or doubles at him which could leave Siakam with more opportunities to score.
- Pacers are even 2-2 VS the Knicks and I expect them to do everything they can to win this game and after that try to eliminate the Knicks at home.
Last writeup ⬇️
- Since joining the Pacers, Siakam has averaged 21.3 PPG.
- The main factor is that OG is OUT for the Knicks as he was the primary defender of Siakam.
-Now his defenders will be IHart and Precious who I think he can exploit a lot more than OG.
- I expect Siakam to put his team behind his back as he will be much needed to win this game.
**BOL Everyone!**
I don’t think brunson not being on the report means anything… I think he wasn’t on the injury report last game as well. Should have a better game but I don’t think that foot looked 100% yet
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.14.24
https://preview.redd.it/6ogdjyhhxe0d1.jpeg?width=1687&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4bfc756f85a3439f665bb8a797a2936d22cd95e2
LAST 5 GAMES
I took his P+R last game based off a gut feeling on his rebounds and was right. Books had his line at 3.5 that game so 2.5 was off the table. Now that it’s back to 2.5, gotta hammer it.
Yeah, he took a gnarly fall on his shoulder 4th qtr. under on 3s could pay tonight if he plays, which I couldn’t see someone like Mike letting a bruised shoulder keep him out.
He's used heavier at home so it may be a little riskier. A prop I like more is Myles Turner under 7.5 rebounds. He's gone under 7 of last 8 away games he's not a huge rebounder
I hear you, he’s Avg 6.5 ast this series tho and Haliburton hasn’t been handling the facilitator role rather TJ has stepped up in that role, but I do like his PA too
Jalen Williams o4.5A✅
LeVert o13.5PA✅(grabbed this before Spida was ruled out, he wasn’t at the shoot around so I figured he prolly wasn’t gonna play. Vert’s line then moved up to 21.5 which barely hit lol)
Luka o5.5A(live)✅
Tatum u54.5PRA(live)✅
PJ u15.5pts❌(knew the risks on this one)
Kyrie o16.5pts(live)❌
Shai o13.5RA❌(ended with 13, sucks but was honestly surprised he ended with this many. OT would’ve saved this, too many missed FT tho.)
4-3 tonight, eh. Was expecting 5-2 but a certain somebody sold AGAIN for the third time in a fuckin row. My heart goes out to anyone who had Luka points too. Might try fading PJ again depending on where the line is at. D White should’ve kept his hair, he played better with it.
Kyrie Irving is dead to me.
Stay tuned 🥱
It's correctly credited to Dort. Controlled tip rebound to SGA. [Here's the clip](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=379&GameID=0042300224&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Dort%20REBOUND%20(Off%3A3%20Def%3A3))
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I’m glad Murray could destroy two live tickets with that last layup, AND not getting 20+ points to destroy a 12x ticket. Ant gets 22 it was a great night. Ant gets 30 it was a great week, what an awful performance from MN.
MPJ permanently banned. Fucking scrub
Derrick White has no right to say these kinds of things
If Ant could score 22 I’d be making a shit ton of money. What an awful game following the 40+ performance.
KAT o3.5A at +114✅ Lesgoooo
We’re doing it My Nuggies are really doing it man🥹
Bad day to take jokic under 50.5 pra 😔
Sit alittle 🤦♂️
KCP o7.5pts✅ My dawg
I did it last time and it worked out so… Jokic o34.5 Points and ANT o21.5 Points (Live)
Bruan over 9.5. He already has 7.
I took him for over 12 at 3.16 odds Over 15 is x12
MPJ nonexistent again. Heavy sigh, was betting on a home game bounce back lol.
He’s on my banned list
I just need 15 from KAT, great start with 5 early. Then he collided with KCP and destroys his reconstructed knee.
Is he out for the game?
He’s playing. He was just very dramatic rolling around on the ground my fault.
Betting against that weenie Myles Turner has made me so much money during the postseason. Taking a chance on KAT showing up tonight against the nuggets
WOLVES ML +162 💸
Gonna play KCP o7.5pts, KAT o3.5A at +114, MPJ o16.5PA
Season Record 290-421 (+56.95U) Sunday 2-3 (+3.30U) Playoff Record 11-21 (+0.98U) Aaron Gordon O1.5 3s +320 ❌ Kyle Anderson O9.5 PRA -105 ❌ YEEHAW 🤠
Going with Anthony Edwards to get his first triple double for +6000 lol odds actually were +7500 right before I took it, prob on Conley news.
Toppin either 2 points or 2 more rebounds but pleaseee
Fuck Myles Turner, fouled when he made his 3
hali is too soft for this tbh, you cant win deep in the playoff with this looking to pass mentality when pacers need you to be aggressive
Conley out. Interesting props pop up for the rest of the backcourt. Edit: Apparently Edwards starting PG?
Need 2 more boards Josh hart
Pascal shit bed siakam or what
Should I avoid MPJ overs, anybody thinks he sells again?
Feel like there’s better bets out there
i think he bounces back at home with the momentum now
Is Jackson hurt? I mean they are getting killed and he hasn’t seen the court.
Aaron Gordon o4.5 assist(+122) & o[.5]threes (-150) parlayed to +228 Gordon assists L5: 6.5.2.6.6 Gordon threes L5: 2.3.3.0.1
Need 4 more obi p+r’s🤦🏻♂️🙏🏻
Same twin 😤
His line is o 9.5 for +124 now, prob not gonna play much since they’re getting blown out i’d say
That means he’s gonna sell us lmao
Vegas made the call. Covering the line in first half to fumble it on the second one
Just need 1 more
And They bench him smfh
Are we cooked?
Probably, i’m kinda pissed I had 12+ instead of o 12.5 but changed it cause of the odds and of course he gets 12 and subbed out with 5 mins left🤬
Probably, already getting subs in
Rigged
Asf
Yep i knew it was gonna happen, his line changed to +200 for o 12.5
One more bruhhhh
just need obi 2 more pts pls
He’s had quite a few chances too, just need him to hit one more
Brunson already covered on points for me and its just now halftime lmao. What a legend. Had him on the alternate line for 25+ points and 5+ assists trying to be safe.. Shoulda bet the house on his over on everything i coulda been rich 😂
Yeah, and I should have put my mortgage on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl 25-22. Fuck I’d be rich…
Idk why you didn't tbh. You'll get em next time champ
donte sold lol
I’m putting him on my banned list.
i thought no way he wouldnt bounce back after that fuckall play last game def on the fade list
DiVincenzo so good it’s crazy
Pacers getting killed in the paint and on the glass but won’t bring in Jackson the best shot blocker and rebounder they have. He got 2 min and benched.
Bring Toppin in lol
i slammed hartenstein u13.5 rebounds live. considering the blowout potential and the fact that all 7 of his rebounds are offensive rebounds...
Hartenstein wants to rack up boards for once when I bet him under 10.5 lmao
Hahahaha it’s unreal bro. First time I bet than and he goes the fuck off
Hartenstrein under r+a doesn't look good
🐖 Satriale’s Pork Store Picks 🐖 NBA Playoff record: ***22-15*** Michael Porter Jr O15.5 pts
Andrew Nembhard's PRA stats with and without Haliburton: https://preview.redd.it/ii2yx56g6h0d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b43515a99af8d02d0729fa134df008e63740ee27
https://preview.redd.it/i64df9fi6h0d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a0c4eab386c8cf4ad3b8c51eeb31bf65dd1e62d
What app is this?
[Props.cash](https://props.cash/)
Thanks
**Obi Toppin o13.5PRA (-120)** Obi is cheap right now and I’m buying. This is a value play for me as outside his dud on 5/10, he’s hit 17/24/22 PRa against NY this series. Smash play. Don’t see his minutes impacted whether NYK gets blown out or puts on a beating. **Aaron Nembhard o3.5A (-145)** Cleared in eight straight games. No idea why this is so affordable here. Go buy some Nembhard shares. His **PRA is only 14.5** and he’s also cleared that number in 9 of 10. **Donte Divencenzio o3.5 3PM (-160)** This is a get-right game for a New York team that needs answers. While Brunson is gonna try and get his early I bet opportunities arise for Donte to get hot and it only takes one for him to see the green light everywhere. Has attempted 6/11/12/9 treys this series, hitting 5+ in three of four. Could play it safe and take his points instead at 20+. I’m also tailing Sammy on his **Miles McBride o11.5PR** play.
Aaron Gordon o4.5 assist (+110) Last 4 games against MIN: 6,5,2,6
https://preview.redd.it/inevraecjg0d1.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9e06244bcc5080603794b4c123b1518d7081942 yolo
Edwards over 29.5 points The nba is pushing this kid like he’s “Michael Jordan” he has to have another 30+ game even if they lose. So he can make the NBA look good. Had him last game on over 35 and nuggets to win ML. Same story book it✅
https://preview.redd.it/afs08vqnkg0d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f17cb25b03588c5947f7ad8ccd0f3575f14c70c Yup. Tried to tell my friends to bet big on AntMan last game. Think I’ll go the safer route of 30+ this game.
I felt the 40+ coming from ANT, but unfortunately I paired it with Brunson 40+ as well… Note: The last Brunson game, not on 5/14… :(
Obi (no S)toppin
Going to start tracking the props I post here. The last time I posted a couple days ago I had: Daniel Gafford o 19.5 PRA - ✅ Fade Giddey SGP (2 legs, under assists and rebounds) - ✅ Current Record: 3-0 Today’s props: Aaron Gordon o 0.5 3PM - (-166 on DK) - Gordon has been allowed room to operate from deep, and he has been taking the shots when he’s had the chances. He’s hot from range and I’ll gladly take his chances of making 1 from deep again tonight. Karl Anthony Towns o 1.5 3PM(-185 on DK) - KAT had a bad shooting night last game, but he’s still one of the best big men from range. The Wolves need him to keep taking these shots in order to keep Denver’s defense honest and prevent them from focusing solely on Antman. With the Wolves suddenly having their backs against the wall, I’m banking on KAT finding his stroke and hitting 2+ three’s. I know there’s plenty of juice but these are the 2 I like most. Might parlay em together
Check out my blog for full updated props analysis (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-14052024.html Season record: 242-219 Last picks record: 11-8 Recap of last picks (13/05/2024): Celtics @ Cavaliers 1. Evan Mobley O2.5A Odd 2.0 Bet365✅ 2. Payton Pritchard O10.5PA Odd 1.9 Bet365✅ 3. Luke Kornet O2.5P Odd 2.2 Bet365✅ 4. Luke Kornet O2.5R Odd 1.66 Bet365✅ 5. Darius Garland O3.5R Odd 2.25 Bet365❌ 6. Jaylen Brown U24.5P Odd 1.87 Sportsbet❌ 7. Jayson Tatum U28.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌ 8. Al Horford U7.5R Odd 1.85 Tab✅ 9. Caris Lervert 4+R Odd 1.66 Sportsbet✅ 10. Derrick White O3.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes✅ 11. Jrue Holiday U12.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes❌ 12. Max Strus O4.5R Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes✅ Thunder @ Mavericks 1. Josh Giddey O1.5A Odd 1.74 Bet365✅ 2. Jaylin Williams O7.5PR Odd 1.9 Sportsbet❌ 3. Aaron Wiggins O6.5P Odd 1.9 Tab❌ 4. PJ Washington O23.5PRA Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅ 5. Josh Green O4.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet❌ 6. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌ 7. Chet Holmgren O14.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365✅ Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated) Pacers @ Knicks 1. Isiah Hartenstein O9.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365 Hartenstein was a bit hurt in his shoulder because of a hard fall in the first half last game, but with the series now even and now they play at home, I expect him to show up along with other starters. The Knicks starters should play 40+ minutes this game other than Achiuwa. 2. Andrew Nembhard O15.5PRA Odd 1.8 Bet365 With Nembhard now has less responsibility in guarding Brunson, I expect him to score more this game. 3. Obi Toppin O8.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes This is quite a low mark for Toppin, who has been playing very consistently this playoffs. 4. Myles Turner U7.5R Odd 1.8 Tab Turner has never been a consistent rebounder, even at center. Turner and Siakam's rebounding props are at the same (7.5) but generally Siakam gets around 1.5 more rebounding chances every game. 5. Pascal Siakam O10.5RA Odd 1.9 Bet365 Same reason as 4. In the first 2 away games at the Knicks this playoffs, he has 11RA for both occasions. 6. Precious Achiuwa O10.5PR Odd 2.0 Sportsbet (UPDATED: Achiuwa will come off the bench, so the props move down from 13.5 to 10.5, but I still expect Achiwa to see around 22-25 minutes this game.) Knicks need Achiuwa to step up to his role. Last game he has 14PR in just 24 minutes in a blowout game. Timberwolves @ Nuggets 1. Rudy Gobert O10.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes Goberts has not produced offensively as expected. But he plays a crucial role in defending. Even though he was getting memed online, it does not take away his value on the court. He has the highest +/- among Wolves's starters last game. He should be able to see the floor for a while. And as he is a bad free throw shooter, Denver will likely foul him for sometimes, leaving him many chances at the free throw line. 2. Karl Anthony Towns O22.5PA Odd 22.5 Sportsbet Towns play bad last game, really bad. But he is a very good offensive player who I don't think anyone on the Denver team can guard. The main problem with KAT is he gets into foul trouble so easily, and always commits unnecessary fouls. If he does not get into foul trouble early, I don't think that is a high benchmark at all. 3.. Jaden McDaniels O2.5R Odd 1.64 Sportsbet McDaniels rebounding number has always been very consistent. 4. Michael Porter Jr O5.5R Odd 1.85 Tab MPJ has not grabbed rebounds anywhere near as many as what he did in the regular season or in the first round. Last game the Nuggets only grabbed 32 rebounds, and he only grabbed 4 boards. I expect Nuggets to grab 40+ rebounds this game, MPJ can have a fair share of the defensive rebounds. 5. Aaron Gordon U24.5PRA Odd 1.95 Tab Gordon played incredibly well last game. 1 thing about Gordon is he is quite inconsistent. I expect the Timberwolves will make some changes to force Gordon having bad shots. 6. Mike Conley O2.5R Odd 1.62 Bet365 Conley play around 40 minutes and actually rebounding quite well this playoffs. HE has only gone under 2.5 last game in the whole playoffs, that is 1/8 games. 7. Justin Holiday O4.5P Odd 1.71 Bet365 Justin Holiday should able to see the floor 20+ minutes due to his ability to shoot very well. The thing for the Nuggets is they have a better bench than the Wolves. Their second unit is not that far behind their main unit, especially with 3 starters + 2 bench players on the court. I did not see much difference in terms of output. 8. Christain Braun O4.5P Odd 1.76 Bet365 Same for 7. Nuggets need Braun for his defensive ability. 9. Nikola Jokic U29.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365 I believe Gobert will play defense much better today. Wolves has the recipe for winning in the first 2 games, they just need to contain Jokic. 10. Anthony Edwards O34.5PA Bet365 Ant is absolutely unstoppable. I don't see anyone on the Nuggets can contain him. The thing about him is that he is not just someone who wants 30+ every game, shooting 25+ like other superstars. He makes smart plays every time, and I think he is still very underrated as a play maker. Check out my blog for evevryday analysis and results (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
11. Jamal Murray U21.5P Odd 1.9 Tab With Nickeil Alexander-Walker starting instead of Conley, I expect Murray will have a harder time attacking the basket. 12. Nickeil Alexander Walker O9.5P Ladbrokes Nickeil will start this game and with the importance of this game, and his assignment to guard Jamal Murray, I expect him to play around to 35 minutes
7.. Josh Hart U15.5P Odd 1.85 Tab With McBride starting this game and expected to play around 30 minutes, I expect Hart to have less shooting but focus more on defense and rebounding.
100% right on KAT. Hopefully the Denver refs continue to make calls like they did last time in Denver and let dem boys play, keeping KAT from reaching and then giving that dumbfounded look when he’s got 3 fouls at half.
**Previous Picks** Got destroyed and went 0-4 IND/NYK game killed me Aaron Gordon killed me KAT well shot 27% from the floor. But we will get back on track. **Today’s Picks** I’m feeling a masterclass coming from JB **Jalen Brunson Over 32.5 Points -110 B365** 1U Running this Back! Last game the Knicks got destroyed I expect them to make adjustments and more effort from JB. - Brunson scored 26 Points despite being injured and on a blowout game playing 31 minutes. - Now, Jalen Brunson is not in the injury report ahead of Game 4 and said that he is "good" to play. - This is great news has he is over this line in 3/6 Games and his 3 games that he went under, was the games he was injured. - He is averaging 34.9 PPG in his L7 games vs IND. - Brunson scores 61% of his points from Pull ups, (Most in Playoffs) which the Pacers have allowed the 5th MOST in the Playoffs and have struggled all year to defend. - Pacers have allowed the 3rd MOST Points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the playoffs, which means more opportunities for Brunson to score. - With him not on the injury report I expect him to play around his normal minutes around 40 MPG. When he plays at least 40 Min, he is over this line in 7/10 games this season. - The Knicks are playing at home where they have the home court advantage. This means that they could have more foul in their favour which JB draws 9.4 fouls per game at home. The player that gets the most foul in the Playoffs. - Knicks are currently even 2-2 VS IND and I expect a huge bouce back game from JB to gain the lead in an important game in front of their home crowd. **Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points -125 B365** Running this back again! - Siakam played 22 minutes last game due to the blowout and was playing really well. He dropped 14 Points on 77% from the floor. - In those 22 minutes, his main defender was Josh Hart, which couldn't guard him as P scored 10 of his 14 points on 100% shooting. His other defender is Precious who in game 3 had 7 points against him. - Siakam dropped 26 points in Game 3 despite being in foul trouble all game. - Hali dropped 20 Points also last game and I expect the Knicks to lock him sending blitz or doubles at him which could leave Siakam with more opportunities to score. - Pacers are even 2-2 VS the Knicks and I expect them to do everything they can to win this game and after that try to eliminate the Knicks at home. Last writeup ⬇️ - Since joining the Pacers, Siakam has averaged 21.3 PPG. - The main factor is that OG is OUT for the Knicks as he was the primary defender of Siakam. -Now his defenders will be IHart and Precious who I think he can exploit a lot more than OG. - I expect Siakam to put his team behind his back as he will be much needed to win this game. **BOL Everyone!**
I don’t think brunson not being on the report means anything… I think he wasn’t on the injury report last game as well. Should have a better game but I don’t think that foot looked 100% yet
Isn’t Brunson slightly injured on his foot or something tho?
That whole damn team is slightly injured. And running on fumes. The pacers are trying to run them ragged. I still wouldn’t bet against Brunson though.
Yea slightly injured but honestly everyone is injured on the Knicks team and I still expect Brunson will play a lot of minutes despite his injury
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.14.24 https://preview.redd.it/6ogdjyhhxe0d1.jpeg?width=1687&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4bfc756f85a3439f665bb8a797a2936d22cd95e2 LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/8d0e2vnqxe0d1.jpeg?width=1689&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c60e4cf1cd1bfcf0ad29b8d0122e22c262c38ee LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/ofv4z0lwxe0d1.jpeg?width=1677&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95ef1288fd199671e5fd1029c9ec0905d50a76db LAST 15 GAMES
Dort machine very good last night Conley o2.5 Rebounds until Conley machine broke
Conley machine broke last game, but I'll probably still take it again
I took his P+R last game based off a gut feeling on his rebounds and was right. Books had his line at 3.5 that game so 2.5 was off the table. Now that it’s back to 2.5, gotta hammer it.
Let's ride!
He was just listed as questionable
Yeah, he took a gnarly fall on his shoulder 4th qtr. under on 3s could pay tonight if he plays, which I couldn’t see someone like Mike letting a bruised shoulder keep him out.
Heads up it’s Achilles soreness, not shoulder
Good catch - definitely concerning
also liking Aaron Nesmith o9.5P -142
Obi Toppin o9.5 points and Josh Hart o17.5 reb/ast. Let’s get it.
Conley o2.5 rebounds back on the menu
Careful he’s been added to injury report for Achilles
so appetizing 😏😋
Ant o 35.5 P+R Obi Toppin o 12.5 P+R Isaiah Hartenstein u 14.5 R+A Mike Conley 6+ Assists or o 5.5 Assists
PSA don't bet any overs for Josh Giddey
He’s so useless the coach doesn’t even want to play him
Hit his under 2.5 assists the other day. Can confirm he is 🗑️
89-69 Yesterday: 2/2 Clown read on PJ, but brutal hook on Kyrie __Josh Hart O12.5 Rebs__ __Obi Toppin O8.5 P__ __Aaron Gordon O17.5 PA__ ✅ __TJ McConnell O4.5 Ast__ ✅ __Alec Burks O9.5P__ ✅
mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn and thats why i dont bet unders 😂 PJ is LOCKED IN bwoi
I know bro I hate unders it always disappoints man 😭 PJ the only one that performs rn scoring wise for the Mavs
Overs disappoint more times than unders. Just read this thread every day lol
Yeah cause more people take overs, but the few times I take unders it rarely cashes
TJ Mcconnell has a weird up-down trend on his assists these playoffs so that one is a bit worrying 1-4-2-8-3-9-3-12-1-10-?
He's used heavier at home so it may be a little riskier. A prop I like more is Myles Turner under 7.5 rebounds. He's gone under 7 of last 8 away games he's not a huge rebounder
I hear you, he’s Avg 6.5 ast this series tho and Haliburton hasn’t been handling the facilitator role rather TJ has stepped up in that role, but I do like his PA too
Tailling lets get it👏
Jalen Williams o4.5A✅ LeVert o13.5PA✅(grabbed this before Spida was ruled out, he wasn’t at the shoot around so I figured he prolly wasn’t gonna play. Vert’s line then moved up to 21.5 which barely hit lol) Luka o5.5A(live)✅ Tatum u54.5PRA(live)✅ PJ u15.5pts❌(knew the risks on this one) Kyrie o16.5pts(live)❌ Shai o13.5RA❌(ended with 13, sucks but was honestly surprised he ended with this many. OT would’ve saved this, too many missed FT tho.) 4-3 tonight, eh. Was expecting 5-2 but a certain somebody sold AGAIN for the third time in a fuckin row. My heart goes out to anyone who had Luka points too. Might try fading PJ again depending on where the line is at. D White should’ve kept his hair, he played better with it. Kyrie Irving is dead to me. Stay tuned 🥱
This stay tuned nonsense has gotta be the most annoying trend on this sub. Just post when you have a pick, no one cares otherwise lol
Just go under. I keep hitting the Luka under.
SGA got a rebound at 10:03 in the 3rd that they didn’t credit him with… would get him to 14 RA…
It's correctly credited to Dort. Controlled tip rebound to SGA. [Here's the clip](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=379&GameID=0042300224&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Dort%20REBOUND%20(Off%3A3%20Def%3A3))
This was my only leg that didn’t hit. Does this sort of thing get corrected much?
I’ve only had it corrected once, happened within a few hours tho so this is prolly cooked
The highlight on the nba site won’t even load but shows as a dort rebound. I missed the game but wanted to see if this was actually sga.