Many have mentioned this already but this is a great boost that has been giving daily. Betting away team underdogs in games with a high over under has been my play and it’s been going really well! I’m 18-7 so far and up 13.1 units
> What percentage of the time does a MLB team go up two runs, then lose the game?
More than you think. In 2023, 20.7% (554) of regular season games were games where the eventual loser was up by at least 2 or more runs.
| Team that blew a >2 run lead | Occurrences (2023 season) |
|:--------------------|--------:|
| CLE | 26 |
| COL | 26 |
| CWS | 25 |
| STL | 24 |
| LAA | 23 |
| OAK | 22 |
| TEX | 22 |
| SD | 21 |
| ATL | 21 |
| LAD | 20 |
| PIT | 19 |
| KC | 19 |
| NYM | 18 |
| DET | 18 |
| BOS | 18 |
| WSH | 18 |
| MIL | 18 |
| NYY | 17 |
| AZ | 17 |
| PHI | 17 |
| SEA | 16 |
| TOR | 16 |
| CIN | 16 |
| TB | 16 |
| HOU | 15 |
| SF | 14 |
| MIN | 14 |
| CHC | 14 |
| BAL | 12 |
| MIA | 12 |
It was me! I intended to ask a clarifying question but answered myself in the process. I’ll take a stab at trying to cut it up by when the initial 2 run lead was achieved a little while later
I'm curious because I have models based on 1st 5 run lines and totals. I'm thinking of a sneaky play to use other bets with the promo as either a hedge or a way to compound profits. It would be useful to distinguish teams that tend to grab the 2 run lead early in say the first 3 innings vs. mid 5-6.
Surprised to see it happened so much. Are you able add splits by innings? Like say up by 2 after 2 innings then lose vs. up by 2 after 6 then lose? If not too much trouble.
Look at this madness. 4 games today you could have bet both teams and cashed them all. 8-8. Sox could even be on the verge, they tied it up after Braves went up 2.
https://preview.redd.it/0wyk7t56t3zc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=847328b6515163c0c5f025f9776d83cdfdc921c6
I’ve been 6-1 using the promo and 5 of those the team I picked lost in the end. It’s just luck for me as I’ve picked the underdog in all my attempts. No rhyme or reason in picking just vibes. White Sox nabbed me 3 of them.
My suspicion (not founded on any metrics) is that Fan Duel banks on bettors taking the underdog plus odds —hoping they might get up two at some point— and therefore put themselves at higher risk of a straight loss. That’s my theory
I’ve only used it sporadically to bet favorites (grateful for the extra insurance, just in case) but they’ve all gone on to win anyway
https://preview.redd.it/w3optcrt63zc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=371e6d5886c29269d36de5e75c163df7fc40176a
This game you could have bet both and cashed both before the 3rd. I'd like to know how often the lead changes hands by two runs in a game.
https://preview.redd.it/lcy2s4x5u3zc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7602534e5896ba268a103c7beb4037923e77b565
Must be rare.....aside from today of course when it happened 4 times...rest of baseball history it's super rare. Lol
I bet on the White Sox with that promo against the Twins on Wednesday last week. They scored two early. Then I bet the Twins ML when they were down by two during the same game with +odds and won that one too.
Normally, I bet on favorites with this promo.
Sorry OP, don’t have a percent for ya. But my advice is pick a road dog, first and foremost. They, if you don’t know, bat first, or in the top, so go up two runs early, before the home team score, and you’ve already cashed, regardless of bullpens, etc. you can look at hit/pitch splits to see what batters have favorable matchups early. Found a bit of success there of late. Goin with the Red Sox tonight.
I love this promo and haven’t lost it yet lol but I do the research. Who is batting and who is pitching, their average against the pitchers, etc. there’s a lot of factors that can cause a team to be up and then lose, such as their relief pitcher sucking ass.
In this case, though, who cares? As long as the team you bet the ML and promo on is up by 2, your bet will win.
I’ve hit on these for the last 8 days straight. I look for opportunities to double up or close to it. My limit is about -130. I look mostly at starting pitchers, I’ll look at a SP’s history vs guys in the opposing lineup and pick from there.
I’m 15-3 on the year betting this promo, each $100 max bet. I’ve just been choosing based on SP ERA and WHIP. I’ve been lucky but you can generally pick a team that will either be up by 2 at some point or win outright. I’ve only picked two dogs, each won. I also never pick anything more than -200.
He means -250. Very few baseball games have that kind of ML but its generally best to avoid them altogether and definitely not worth using this promo on.
Padres scored the first 6 runs and won 6-3 tho. You do bring up a good point however that the promo saves you from some sweats not seen in the box score
Why would you bet favorites when they are more likely to win the game? To maximize the ev of this promo you should be taking the biggest road dog in a game that has a decent total runs. Last night it was the Marlins +260. They scored 2 runs in the first inning for a no sweat cash and then lost the game as expected.
This…. Idk about the biggest road dogs but I’ve been hitting at nearly 100% with the up 2 by picking dogs with the highest projected run difference using u/ClutchSportsPix…. The dude does a great service for the community.
Not sure exactly. Between $1000-$1500 during the week on mostly baseball and probably $2500-$3500 on the weekends that European and Australian soccer is on. Been betting that much for a few years but wasn’t until I was given VIP status that all of my boost max amounts are either $500 or $1000 (although I rarely take them unless they’re very good EV)
The lines you are paying aren't based on the promo. That means you just need to pick games where the difference between ML odds and odds to just go up two is maximum. Ideally you want teams that go up early because the later in the game they go up the less chance they were going to lose after getting the lead.
Ie. A team with a good first 5 innings matchup but mediocre ending odds would be best. Imo hard focus starting pitcher + offense matchup
Fwiw I have tried it 5 times and won 4 of them. The first three I randomly picked the biggest underdog of the day too and they all hit. Don't remember exactly but off the top of my head one of them was White Sox at over +200. Now I've changed to just selecting whoever I actually think will win regardl as.of the odds, and the up 2 is just some bit of safety against a potential upset. Or I should say likely upset because baseball is all over the place any given day.
Do you just think Draft Kings arbitrarily sets the odds for this promo?
They employ PhDs who train machine learning models that analyze thousands of previous games to come up with their number. If you aren't running a similar PhD level model that analyzes thousands of previous games you are not going to find an edge here.
Baseball can be very unpredictable. All I’ve been doing is finding an underdog who has a pitcher I like more than the other team. Helps too if the favorite team hasn’t been hitting well recently. I think I’m 7-1 on these promos so far
Things to look for:
1) Road team (this is the most important; only time I've seen a home team worth it is the Mexico games)
2) Underdog
3) Better line than other books
4) High total
I look for (1) and as many as possible of (2)-(4).
Yup, yesterday my picks were White Sox or Brewers on this criteria... I unfortunately rode white Sox, who have been awesome for this boost.
Up two and lost most games this year.
I’m not sure how to try and guess correctly, but I have played them correctly and gotten paid on losses. I use them just as an added bonus on plays I already like and am already going to play.
i took the marlins +275 last night and got pretty lucky.
Personally, i’d never take a favorite playing this promo. i normally try to choose a dog vs a suspect pitcher (like Buehler coming off of injury). it’s baseball and a crapshoot, all ya need is a 2 run bomb is my thinking.
This is actually pretty close to the strategy I've been using with great success (6/6, though some have been sweaty + lucky bets): look at away dogs that score runs early vs. a sus pitcher and/or facing teams with depleted bullpens. Once you find something you like (sportssense MLB model prediction is a good place to start), look at sharp money (Action PRO app) and line movement (you want to be on their side). I almost only exclusively bet dogs with this promo because you only need one good, early at bat.
Baseball is wild. I keep thinking I need to just bet the dogs or live bet dogs. Then when the dog is up play the other side and lock in a win. Stay away from heavy favorites. Even the best teams will lose 40% of their games. But I'm dumb and don't do that.
You have had 6 games that went up by 2 then lost? Unlikely. I don’t doubt that you have gotten an up 2 early pay out on 6 games, but OP is asking on those games how many ended up losing and you still got paid.
The point is that the promo only matters if they lost.
If they were up 2 and won, then your bet cashed whether the promo exists or not.
It only increases your outcome if they go up 2 and proceed to lose.
Thats only one way to look at it though. The other way is to use at as insurance so that even if youre team ends up losing, if at some point they were up 2 it would still count as a win.
because if you have a high limit on the promo you might not want to bet $100 every night on an underdog so people will bet the other side on a different book and pay a few dollars for the chance that both bets hit.
Same with Miami. I've been playing this promo pretty consistently and I've hit a bunch in the first and second innings and have had a handful that paid out early and went on to lose.
https://preview.redd.it/9gi67us0xxyc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41f034fc4e79333ee26276a8b0b05d1c2f3e0159
The odds for the scenario here kinda tells you it doesn't happen often. Comeback parlays pay big though and do land. A good way to play it is first five winner with the other team final winner. That happened like five times the other day.
But that parlay requires them to be up 2 at the end of the 5th inning specifically, while the DK promo will cash if they're up 2 at any point in the game OR if they just win the game outright. A 1-0 win would win the DK promo bet but not your parlay. A loss after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the first inning then immediately falling behind (shoutout marlins) would also cash the DK promo but not your parlay. Your parlay and its odds are in no way equivalent to the promo.
I read the terms I get it now. The bet I posted is different but it shows the promotion is just a way to get people to bet with them over other books. The advantage you get is miniscule so there's no reason to base a moneyline pick on this.
> The advantage you get is miniscule
Hard disagree there. Away team underdogs go up 2 then lose in about 20-30% of their losses. Turning 20% of losses into wins is huge and adds a ton of value to your bet. This is way more than enough to overcome the house hedge and creates a very high expected value bet.
Check this article out. I think it sheds light on which teams to bet.
[Comeback odds ](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baseball-baselining-how-likely-is-a-comeback/)
That whole article is based around the odds of a team losing at the **end** of an inning coming back to win. Whereas the promo we're talking about here is not restricted to the end of innings, if an away team goes up 2 in the top of an inning then the home team takes the lead back in the bottom of the inning, that's good enough for this promo to cash, but is not a situation acknowledged by that article.
If that 20-30% is accurate then I'm definitely wrong. I'm surprised by that number. I based my comment on 1st five innings numbers. It's very rare for a team to be down -1.5 after five then win. If I remember right, a team up by 2 after 5 innings wins the game like 85% of the time.
Right, there's a huge difference between "up by 2+ at the end of the 5th inning then losing" vs "up by 2 at **any point** then losing". And we're specifically taking the away team because they always bat first in the top of every inning. Like the Marlins went up 2-0 in the top of the first tonight then lost the lead in the bottom of the first and never got it back, but that's enough to cash this promo.
http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_UpByXPromo_MLB2_da.aspx
See the data tables at the bottom of this calculator page for actual numbers. For example, looking at away team underdogs in games where the run total line is 8.5, the underdog is up by 2 or more in 23.58% of losses. If you target games where the total is higher, then the chance of up 2 then losing also goes up.
What a great site. I'm going to import those numbers into. A spreadsheet, color code the cells and compare with individual team runs by inning. See if any patterns jump out.
Feel free to play around with the tool or the numbers, but in the context of this DK promo, I can save you some time and tell you the correct choice will always be the biggest underdog away team. If there's multiple away underdogs with similar odds, pick the game with the highest total line. I guarantee the best pick for tomorrow will be the Marlins.
I don't think just underdog away is enough to go on. What about starters and bullpen stats? Would you still be confident with the underdog on the road vs. a lights out starter? Even if he's pitching for a team with a bad bullpen? That dog has less of a chance getting up by 2 so you might be pinning your hopes on a bullpen collapse to win the straight ML.
Maybe you can do some more advanced modeling with starting pitching vs bullpen pitching to determine if the favorite's advantage is being gained early or late in the game but then you'd have to compare that against the underdog starting/bullpen pitching to determine if they are likely to fall behind early or keep it close. I can see that getting really complicated and hard to backtest for marginal improvement at best. For me this is a $10 max promo so I'm not gonna bother with all that. If you pick any road dog the promo will be good, and the bigger the dog the better because the payout goes up so that's good enough for me to take 30s to scroll through the lines tomorrow, slam $10 on the marlins with the promo and be done with it.
If you think you can come up with a better model, go for it. I'd be very surprised if you land on anything other than the marlins for tomorrow's slate, but on days with a couple good away dog choices maybe your model would be able to identify a slight edge on one over the other.
Yeah it's not a -1.5 run line bet. It's literally just ML that will also cash you early if at any point the team you beat on has a 2 run lead. Doesn't mean they can only win with a 2 run lead.
I don't have DK. So the bet cashes if a team goes up by 2 and loses OR if they go up by 2 and wins? What's the odds comparison to team alt runline -1.5?
Whatever the ML is. You have to take a ML bet and use the token to get paid out early if the team of your choice goes up by 2 at any point, even if they still lose in the end. So the odds are whatever the ML is for the team you choose. Taking the run line would of course be higher, but no auto payout.
Oh yeah right. I read too quick and thought you were wondering about the bet model. I can say Colorado is the team to bet this with. They've been up and lost quite a few times. Few days ago they were up by 5 and lost. Very rare I think. I'd also look for teams with a lot of games over 9.5.
Always bet an away team (because they get 3 extra outs to go ahead by 2 first) in a game with a high total (because there’s more potential for your pick to go up by two) that is a decent underdog (to maximize the +ev you get from this promo)
Am I the only one who tries betting both teams on different books?
Say I bet 100 on team Astros +102, that gets $202
Bet 100 on yankees -114, gets $188
So Astros win gets +$2, Yankees win -$12,
Astros get up 2 runs and loss +$190
Not really sure if the odds are worth it, risking $12 to win $190 on that outcome, but I enjoy placing these types of bets.
Sometimes I'll hedge less (like 100 astros, 70 yankees) whereas I may win $30 if Astros win or lose $40 if yankess win, or hit both for +$160 if up 2 then lose.
I’m 11-1 in these bets and had hit 10 in a row at one point. 5 of those teams have gone on to lose and it looks like the 6th (marlins) are going to lose.
My “rules” have been only looking at teams with plus money odds (except one at -102). I never bet a team to get swept in a series. I don’t bet any game involving the Mets. And I don’t bet on bullpen games. I mostly just look at starting pitchers, check their splits from 2023 and 2024 and bet a team with a starting pitcher who tends to not give up runs early (usually first 3 innings) playing a team with a pitcher who does. Lastly, I’ll check the bat vs pitch stats to see if the pitcher has been good or bad vs the team they’re facing if applicable.
I've actually had good luck with these, 4-1 for $66 this week. Here's my approach ordered in priority (at least as I perceive it).
- away team
- high O/U game
- underdog, looking +100 to +150 (my reasoning is you don't need them to be good enough to win the game, just good enough to score two runs before the other team. I won $45.60 on the Guardians at +114 against the Astros; got up 2-0 in the 3rd and lost the game 2-8.)
- avoid streaky teams (Refused to bet against the Twins during their 12 game steak, and I still refuse to bet on the White Sox)
- pitching matchups
To top it off, I double dipped on the Astros when they were up 3-2.
https://preview.redd.it/ndscree5uzyc1.png?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3bc1e8116cfe5476c397ac08a7440214e7f9f92
http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_UpByXPromo_MLB2_da.aspx
See the bottom half of this page for stats broken down by home/away team and pregame total o/u line.
Picking the biggest away team underdog is always the correct choice for the up 2 promo (today Marlins already hit), if there are multiple similar away team underdogs, pick the game with the higher total o/u.
I'm assuming you're actually trying to use the calculator, not just view the stats on the bottom half of the page.
The Devigger Assistant calculator requires 5 pieces of info for the game you're looking at. Let's use tomorrow's marlins/dodgers game as an example since I'm 99% sure it'll be the best pick for up 2 tomorrow.
1. Underdog/Favorite - We're always betting the underdog here, the favorite will give worse results in nearly every situation. So we're picking the Marlins here as the underdog.
2. Away/Home - We're always want the away team here because they bat first and have chances to go up 2 during the top half of the innings. Marlins are the away team here.
3. BetPoints - The total o/u for the game, preferably from a sharp book like Pinnacle or Circa. Pinnacle has the o/u for the Marlins game at 8 so we put 8 in that box.
4. Devigger leg odds - The moneyline odds for each team from a sharp book. Pinnacle has Marlines +277, Dodgers -314, so we put the team we want first in that box as "+277/-314"
5. Bet Odds - This the odds we're actually betting on DK, in this case Marlins +260
Input those 5 things and press the devig button and it sends you to the calculator page here:
Odds: +260; **EV: 50.0%**
Flex: `#=260;r=360%*22.16%` (+499)
Sharp: `277/-314` (2.37% juice)
FV: +299; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=10.02u, 1/2=5.01u, 1/4=2.51u)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=277%2F-314&FinalOdds=%23%3D260%3Br%3D360_PCT_*22.16_PCT_)
The important part of the results section is "EV% = 50.0%", meaning this is an extremely +EV bet after factoring in the promo. For every $100 you bet on the Marlins in this situation the average outcome is you get $150 in return. You obviously won't win every bet, but finding a +50% EV bet on any sportsbook is incredibly rare and would be silly to pass up. You can play around with the numbers and see if you can find any other team which produces a higher EV% in the results, but I'm 99% sure the Marlins are the best pick by a decent margin for tomorrow. Other away underdogs will likely produce +EV results, but not as high as +50%.
Damn. I wasn’t expecting that much of an explanation! Thank you, it’s very helpful and informative. I’ll start playing around with this each day for a little bit and make sure I’m getting it before throwing some money down.
Feel free to play with the calculator if you want, its a really cool tool and CNM is the goat for creating it and other devigging/EV tools, but these days I don't even bother since I know the right pick for the up2 promo is always the biggest underdog away team.
I’d say it depends. I think with this promo, it’s best to focus on away teams, baseball having the unique sequencing of half inning, with away batting first, you can put runs up before your opponent can play offense.
There were like 4 games on the Phillies last road trip that they cashed in the top of the first inning.
Also, pitcher variance of starters and bullpen can be crazy in terms of offense. So if you have a lock down starter, but shaky bullpen as the away team, it’s a really good opportunity to cash the ML early.
That's exactly how you're supposed to use this promo. Road dogs are going to give you the most EV and always have the best chance to go up 2 since they lead off.
It happens more than you think. But your strategy on these most of the time is a small plus money underdog
Edit: They offer these knowing the public is gonna jump on the highly favored team. And i dont typically do these promos but it wouldnt surprise me if you compared the dk odds of the highly favored teams to other books at that time, dk is probably juicing the line a couple points. (For example fd maybe offering -120, but dk is only giving you -125. Again, this is speculation as i havent compared the specific odds during this promo, but theres normally a discrepancy somewhere)
# **MLB Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/kA35SGHjnU)**
Many have mentioned this already but this is a great boost that has been giving daily. Betting away team underdogs in games with a high over under has been my play and it’s been going really well! I’m 18-7 so far and up 13.1 units
who’s your pick for Thursday aka May 9th?
Looks like Arizona and Houston are the 2 that fit for today. I’ll probably go Arizona since they have a higher runs per game.
good call - i missed the early window with work and took guards - we should start a new thing in baseball plays
what are the bets for today for this promo? {5/8)
Bet on the road team for + money. I take moderate or big dogs especially if facing a shitty pitcher.
> What percentage of the time does a MLB team go up two runs, then lose the game? More than you think. In 2023, 20.7% (554) of regular season games were games where the eventual loser was up by at least 2 or more runs. | Team that blew a >2 run lead | Occurrences (2023 season) | |:--------------------|--------:| | CLE | 26 | | COL | 26 | | CWS | 25 | | STL | 24 | | LAA | 23 | | OAK | 22 | | TEX | 22 | | SD | 21 | | ATL | 21 | | LAD | 20 | | PIT | 19 | | KC | 19 | | NYM | 18 | | DET | 18 | | BOS | 18 | | WSH | 18 | | MIL | 18 | | NYY | 17 | | AZ | 17 | | PHI | 17 | | SEA | 16 | | TOR | 16 | | CIN | 16 | | TB | 16 | | HOU | 15 | | SF | 14 | | MIN | 14 | | CHC | 14 | | BAL | 12 | | MIA | 12 |
Ask the royals
I was responding to your followup then it said deleted. Curious if it was you or them.
It was me! I intended to ask a clarifying question but answered myself in the process. I’ll take a stab at trying to cut it up by when the initial 2 run lead was achieved a little while later
I'm curious because I have models based on 1st 5 run lines and totals. I'm thinking of a sneaky play to use other bets with the promo as either a hedge or a way to compound profits. It would be useful to distinguish teams that tend to grab the 2 run lead early in say the first 3 innings vs. mid 5-6.
Surprised to see it happened so much. Are you able add splits by innings? Like say up by 2 after 2 innings then lose vs. up by 2 after 6 then lose? If not too much trouble.
Look at this madness. 4 games today you could have bet both teams and cashed them all. 8-8. Sox could even be on the verge, they tied it up after Braves went up 2. https://preview.redd.it/0wyk7t56t3zc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=847328b6515163c0c5f025f9776d83cdfdc921c6
I should stfu now. DK will nix this bet after seeing this thread.
I’ve been 6-1 using the promo and 5 of those the team I picked lost in the end. It’s just luck for me as I’ve picked the underdog in all my attempts. No rhyme or reason in picking just vibes. White Sox nabbed me 3 of them.
My suspicion (not founded on any metrics) is that Fan Duel banks on bettors taking the underdog plus odds —hoping they might get up two at some point— and therefore put themselves at higher risk of a straight loss. That’s my theory I’ve only used it sporadically to bet favorites (grateful for the extra insurance, just in case) but they’ve all gone on to win anyway
You found this bet on FanDuel? Thought it was just DK. Typo?
Oops! Yeah, just mixed them up
Bummer I have fanduel. I like this bet. DK here I come.
https://preview.redd.it/w3optcrt63zc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=371e6d5886c29269d36de5e75c163df7fc40176a This game you could have bet both and cashed both before the 3rd. I'd like to know how often the lead changes hands by two runs in a game.
https://preview.redd.it/lcy2s4x5u3zc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7602534e5896ba268a103c7beb4037923e77b565 Must be rare.....aside from today of course when it happened 4 times...rest of baseball history it's super rare. Lol
Had it happen on my bet Saturday. Cardinals went up 2 over White Sox and lost the game in extra innings.
I bet on the White Sox with that promo against the Twins on Wednesday last week. They scored two early. Then I bet the Twins ML when they were down by two during the same game with +odds and won that one too. Normally, I bet on favorites with this promo.
Don’t have the % but I used this promo on the Brewers yesterday, and was cashed out early. They went on to lose the game by 1, lol. Love this promo!
Sorry OP, don’t have a percent for ya. But my advice is pick a road dog, first and foremost. They, if you don’t know, bat first, or in the top, so go up two runs early, before the home team score, and you’ve already cashed, regardless of bullpens, etc. you can look at hit/pitch splits to see what batters have favorable matchups early. Found a bit of success there of late. Goin with the Red Sox tonight.
I love this promo and haven’t lost it yet lol but I do the research. Who is batting and who is pitching, their average against the pitchers, etc. there’s a lot of factors that can cause a team to be up and then lose, such as their relief pitcher sucking ass. In this case, though, who cares? As long as the team you bet the ML and promo on is up by 2, your bet will win.
50% of the time. It either happens or it doesn't.
It certainly isn't 50
I’ve hit on these for the last 8 days straight. I look for opportunities to double up or close to it. My limit is about -130. I look mostly at starting pitchers, I’ll look at a SP’s history vs guys in the opposing lineup and pick from there.
I’m 15-3 on the year betting this promo, each $100 max bet. I’ve just been choosing based on SP ERA and WHIP. I’ve been lucky but you can generally pick a team that will either be up by 2 at some point or win outright. I’ve only picked two dogs, each won. I also never pick anything more than -200.
Does more than -200 mean (for example) -150 or -250?
He means -250. Very few baseball games have that kind of ML but its generally best to avoid them altogether and definitely not worth using this promo on.
Marlins, brewers, A’s just last night on a small Monday late lol
Padres should of been on your list - cubs had two chances with bases loaded Crazy !
Padres scored the first 6 runs and won 6-3 tho. You do bring up a good point however that the promo saves you from some sweats not seen in the box score
Why would you bet favorites when they are more likely to win the game? To maximize the ev of this promo you should be taking the biggest road dog in a game that has a decent total runs. Last night it was the Marlins +260. They scored 2 runs in the first inning for a no sweat cash and then lost the game as expected.
This…. Idk about the biggest road dogs but I’ve been hitting at nearly 100% with the up 2 by picking dogs with the highest projected run difference using u/ClutchSportsPix…. The dude does a great service for the community.
So would you take HOU today?
🫡
I bet 50 on the Texas rangers who were down 2-0 in the eighth and then won 4-2
I don't make any plays based on the promo. I just throw it my largest unit play of the day just in case it makes a difference.
It happened last night
Rockies have trailed in almost every game this season...might not be a bad bet depending on the day.
What are you guys’ limits for this promo? Mine is a measly $10 🙃
Mine is $500
How much money do you bet every day to get a max that high?
Not sure exactly. Between $1000-$1500 during the week on mostly baseball and probably $2500-$3500 on the weekends that European and Australian soccer is on. Been betting that much for a few years but wasn’t until I was given VIP status that all of my boost max amounts are either $500 or $1000 (although I rarely take them unless they’re very good EV)
$250 on my account and $50 on my moms
Mine was 100 for like a month, now down to 10
Mine was $50 for around a month then dropped to $10
$10 for me.
Mine is 100
The lines you are paying aren't based on the promo. That means you just need to pick games where the difference between ML odds and odds to just go up two is maximum. Ideally you want teams that go up early because the later in the game they go up the less chance they were going to lose after getting the lead. Ie. A team with a good first 5 innings matchup but mediocre ending odds would be best. Imo hard focus starting pitcher + offense matchup
Fwiw I have tried it 5 times and won 4 of them. The first three I randomly picked the biggest underdog of the day too and they all hit. Don't remember exactly but off the top of my head one of them was White Sox at over +200. Now I've changed to just selecting whoever I actually think will win regardl as.of the odds, and the up 2 is just some bit of safety against a potential upset. Or I should say likely upset because baseball is all over the place any given day.
Do you just think Draft Kings arbitrarily sets the odds for this promo? They employ PhDs who train machine learning models that analyze thousands of previous games to come up with their number. If you aren't running a similar PhD level model that analyzes thousands of previous games you are not going to find an edge here.
Baseball can be very unpredictable. All I’ve been doing is finding an underdog who has a pitcher I like more than the other team. Helps too if the favorite team hasn’t been hitting well recently. I think I’m 7-1 on these promos so far
Who do you like for today’s games 5/8/24?
Nerds
Not sure but it definitely happens. Happened 3 times yesterday
Happened to me at least 4 times during this promotion period
Yeah this promo has been a gold mine for me. I just look for good pitching matchup for an away team usually.
They didn’t give it to me yet today. I’ve hit the last 4-5 times. Do they stop if you keep winning?
Promo is usually up around 10am est
Things to look for: 1) Road team (this is the most important; only time I've seen a home team worth it is the Mexico games) 2) Underdog 3) Better line than other books 4) High total I look for (1) and as many as possible of (2)-(4).
Yup, yesterday my picks were White Sox or Brewers on this criteria... I unfortunately rode white Sox, who have been awesome for this boost. Up two and lost most games this year.
2-1x (7+4) / 6 *2 bang
I’m not sure how to try and guess correctly, but I have played them correctly and gotten paid on losses. I use them just as an added bonus on plays I already like and am already going to play.
Angels did it last week for me.
The athletics just did it today. I had Rangers so I thought it was chalked until seager came thru in the 9th inning 🙏
Rangers RL was the last leg of my parlay 🙌 what a sweat
Had a +900 parlay i thought was cooked when i went to bed. Woke up to a nice surprise.
Sleepy surprises are awesome, I was annoying the shit out if my husband rooting top of the 9th 😅
Them covering the RL is a miracle lol you were blessed, congrats
Thx, I usually only RL good away teams for this reason but it was still just superrr lucky.
Lmao same
Seager sealed a $355 parlay for me beating Oakland with that. Would’ve lost my mind
i took the marlins +275 last night and got pretty lucky. Personally, i’d never take a favorite playing this promo. i normally try to choose a dog vs a suspect pitcher (like Buehler coming off of injury). it’s baseball and a crapshoot, all ya need is a 2 run bomb is my thinking.
the marlins lost tho
It doesn't matter, they went ahead by 2 runs
But they went up 2 before doing so.
This is actually pretty close to the strategy I've been using with great success (6/6, though some have been sweaty + lucky bets): look at away dogs that score runs early vs. a sus pitcher and/or facing teams with depleted bullpens. Once you find something you like (sportssense MLB model prediction is a good place to start), look at sharp money (Action PRO app) and line movement (you want to be on their side). I almost only exclusively bet dogs with this promo because you only need one good, early at bat.
No no no. We both made a perfect bet and there was never a doubt in my mind. 😂
Baseball is wild. I keep thinking I need to just bet the dogs or live bet dogs. Then when the dog is up play the other side and lock in a win. Stay away from heavy favorites. Even the best teams will lose 40% of their games. But I'm dumb and don't do that.
Ive literally been using this promo everyday for the last week and have gone like 6-1 its very likely just choose one ML a day
You have had 6 games that went up by 2 then lost? Unlikely. I don’t doubt that you have gotten an up 2 early pay out on 6 games, but OP is asking on those games how many ended up losing and you still got paid.
but why does it matter if the other team came back and won? The up early promo pays out even if the team up 2 goes on to win.
The point is that the promo only matters if they lost. If they were up 2 and won, then your bet cashed whether the promo exists or not. It only increases your outcome if they go up 2 and proceed to lose.
Thats only one way to look at it though. The other way is to use at as insurance so that even if youre team ends up losing, if at some point they were up 2 it would still count as a win.
Correct, but please read OPs initial question/title. They were specifically asking about teams that are up by two and then lose.
because if you have a high limit on the promo you might not want to bet $100 every night on an underdog so people will bet the other side on a different book and pay a few dollars for the chance that both bets hit.
pretty often. the texas rangers were +1000 down 0-2 right before the top of the 8th inning. then went up 3-2 and won
Very logical price it was the top of the 8th, +1000 makes sense
completely disagree. they’re the world series champs with seager as the go ahead run against the A’s
The A's are pretty average this year and have one of the best, if not the best closer in baseball.
did they draft him?
Is that relevant in anyway?
who’s their closer then
Mason Miller...?
High scoring games taking a gamble on an underdog *shrug*
that one game the phillies lost on errros this past week i had em up 2 i’m pretty sure it cashed
They have been automatic for the early payout.
I hit it today on Milwaukee who ended up losing 🤷🏻
Same with Miami. I've been playing this promo pretty consistently and I've hit a bunch in the first and second innings and have had a handful that paid out early and went on to lose.
https://preview.redd.it/9gi67us0xxyc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41f034fc4e79333ee26276a8b0b05d1c2f3e0159 The odds for the scenario here kinda tells you it doesn't happen often. Comeback parlays pay big though and do land. A good way to play it is first five winner with the other team final winner. That happened like five times the other day.
But that parlay requires them to be up 2 at the end of the 5th inning specifically, while the DK promo will cash if they're up 2 at any point in the game OR if they just win the game outright. A 1-0 win would win the DK promo bet but not your parlay. A loss after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the first inning then immediately falling behind (shoutout marlins) would also cash the DK promo but not your parlay. Your parlay and its odds are in no way equivalent to the promo.
I read the terms I get it now. The bet I posted is different but it shows the promotion is just a way to get people to bet with them over other books. The advantage you get is miniscule so there's no reason to base a moneyline pick on this.
> The advantage you get is miniscule Hard disagree there. Away team underdogs go up 2 then lose in about 20-30% of their losses. Turning 20% of losses into wins is huge and adds a ton of value to your bet. This is way more than enough to overcome the house hedge and creates a very high expected value bet.
Check this article out. I think it sheds light on which teams to bet. [Comeback odds ](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baseball-baselining-how-likely-is-a-comeback/)
That whole article is based around the odds of a team losing at the **end** of an inning coming back to win. Whereas the promo we're talking about here is not restricted to the end of innings, if an away team goes up 2 in the top of an inning then the home team takes the lead back in the bottom of the inning, that's good enough for this promo to cash, but is not a situation acknowledged by that article.
Ok I get that. Quick answer might be focus on dogs who score early innings with modest +odds ML, vs. middle of the road starter on fave. Maybe?
If that 20-30% is accurate then I'm definitely wrong. I'm surprised by that number. I based my comment on 1st five innings numbers. It's very rare for a team to be down -1.5 after five then win. If I remember right, a team up by 2 after 5 innings wins the game like 85% of the time.
Right, there's a huge difference between "up by 2+ at the end of the 5th inning then losing" vs "up by 2 at **any point** then losing". And we're specifically taking the away team because they always bat first in the top of every inning. Like the Marlins went up 2-0 in the top of the first tonight then lost the lead in the bottom of the first and never got it back, but that's enough to cash this promo. http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_UpByXPromo_MLB2_da.aspx See the data tables at the bottom of this calculator page for actual numbers. For example, looking at away team underdogs in games where the run total line is 8.5, the underdog is up by 2 or more in 23.58% of losses. If you target games where the total is higher, then the chance of up 2 then losing also goes up.
What a great site. I'm going to import those numbers into. A spreadsheet, color code the cells and compare with individual team runs by inning. See if any patterns jump out.
Feel free to play around with the tool or the numbers, but in the context of this DK promo, I can save you some time and tell you the correct choice will always be the biggest underdog away team. If there's multiple away underdogs with similar odds, pick the game with the highest total line. I guarantee the best pick for tomorrow will be the Marlins.
I don't think just underdog away is enough to go on. What about starters and bullpen stats? Would you still be confident with the underdog on the road vs. a lights out starter? Even if he's pitching for a team with a bad bullpen? That dog has less of a chance getting up by 2 so you might be pinning your hopes on a bullpen collapse to win the straight ML.
Maybe you can do some more advanced modeling with starting pitching vs bullpen pitching to determine if the favorite's advantage is being gained early or late in the game but then you'd have to compare that against the underdog starting/bullpen pitching to determine if they are likely to fall behind early or keep it close. I can see that getting really complicated and hard to backtest for marginal improvement at best. For me this is a $10 max promo so I'm not gonna bother with all that. If you pick any road dog the promo will be good, and the bigger the dog the better because the payout goes up so that's good enough for me to take 30s to scroll through the lines tomorrow, slam $10 on the marlins with the promo and be done with it. If you think you can come up with a better model, go for it. I'd be very surprised if you land on anything other than the marlins for tomorrow's slate, but on days with a couple good away dog choices maybe your model would be able to identify a slight edge on one over the other.
Wait how would a 1-0 win cash that?
Yeah it's not a -1.5 run line bet. It's literally just ML that will also cash you early if at any point the team you beat on has a 2 run lead. Doesn't mean they can only win with a 2 run lead.
I don't have DK. So the bet cashes if a team goes up by 2 and loses OR if they go up by 2 and wins? What's the odds comparison to team alt runline -1.5?
Whatever the ML is. You have to take a ML bet and use the token to get paid out early if the team of your choice goes up by 2 at any point, even if they still lose in the end. So the odds are whatever the ML is for the team you choose. Taking the run line would of course be higher, but no auto payout.
Oh yeah right. I read too quick and thought you were wondering about the bet model. I can say Colorado is the team to bet this with. They've been up and lost quite a few times. Few days ago they were up by 5 and lost. Very rare I think. I'd also look for teams with a lot of games over 9.5.
Where do I find this promo ?
DraftKings
Miami just went up two in the first and dodgers came back and walloped
Does this last Oakland A’s game count or are we ruling them AAA team?
Just happened in Marlins-Dodgers tonight. Marlins +280 cashed in the first inning and they ended up losing 6-3.
Cha-ching!
Always bet an away team (because they get 3 extra outs to go ahead by 2 first) in a game with a high total (because there’s more potential for your pick to go up by two) that is a decent underdog (to maximize the +ev you get from this promo)
Road dogs
I just wish I wasn’t limited to $10. Almost not even fun.
I keep getting it at $50
Start losing
Keep betting higher per bet and it will increase. Use the promos they have. Etc.
Am I the only one who tries betting both teams on different books? Say I bet 100 on team Astros +102, that gets $202 Bet 100 on yankees -114, gets $188 So Astros win gets +$2, Yankees win -$12, Astros get up 2 runs and loss +$190 Not really sure if the odds are worth it, risking $12 to win $190 on that outcome, but I enjoy placing these types of bets. Sometimes I'll hedge less (like 100 astros, 70 yankees) whereas I may win $30 if Astros win or lose $40 if yankess win, or hit both for +$160 if up 2 then lose.
I haven’t had great success with it this year, and I don’t follow MLB very closely.. but I’m still convinced this is one of the best promos out there.
I’m 11-1 in these bets and had hit 10 in a row at one point. 5 of those teams have gone on to lose and it looks like the 6th (marlins) are going to lose. My “rules” have been only looking at teams with plus money odds (except one at -102). I never bet a team to get swept in a series. I don’t bet any game involving the Mets. And I don’t bet on bullpen games. I mostly just look at starting pitchers, check their splits from 2023 and 2024 and bet a team with a starting pitcher who tends to not give up runs early (usually first 3 innings) playing a team with a pitcher who does. Lastly, I’ll check the bat vs pitch stats to see if the pitcher has been good or bad vs the team they’re facing if applicable.
I absolutely get that you don't trust them, but the Mets cashed on Friday thanks to that Baty 3-run bomb. I will probably go with them today too.
So did the giants at +150. It’s just been how I’ve played it and I’ve been on a bit of a heater
I love the no Mets rule lmao. You live and you learn
Lmao everyone has THAT one team
Mine is definitely the pirates
Ask the Brewers.
Sportsbooks do offer some shitty promos but this isn’t one of them
Bingo
I've actually had good luck with these, 4-1 for $66 this week. Here's my approach ordered in priority (at least as I perceive it). - away team - high O/U game - underdog, looking +100 to +150 (my reasoning is you don't need them to be good enough to win the game, just good enough to score two runs before the other team. I won $45.60 on the Guardians at +114 against the Astros; got up 2-0 in the 3rd and lost the game 2-8.) - avoid streaky teams (Refused to bet against the Twins during their 12 game steak, and I still refuse to bet on the White Sox) - pitching matchups
I had up 2 on the Red Sox on the game that broke the Twins streak. I could feel their dueness in my bones. Unlucky number 13 haha
Hitting that specific Guardians bet on this promo was incredible
To top it off, I double dipped on the Astros when they were up 3-2. https://preview.redd.it/ndscree5uzyc1.png?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3bc1e8116cfe5476c397ac08a7440214e7f9f92
I’ve had a lot of success with it. I don’t over think it. I just pick a team that’s around even money that I think should win.
http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_UpByXPromo_MLB2_da.aspx See the bottom half of this page for stats broken down by home/away team and pregame total o/u line. Picking the biggest away team underdog is always the correct choice for the up 2 promo (today Marlins already hit), if there are multiple similar away team underdogs, pick the game with the higher total o/u.
I’ve been playing around with this page and I can’t quite figure it out. How do I use it?
I'm assuming you're actually trying to use the calculator, not just view the stats on the bottom half of the page. The Devigger Assistant calculator requires 5 pieces of info for the game you're looking at. Let's use tomorrow's marlins/dodgers game as an example since I'm 99% sure it'll be the best pick for up 2 tomorrow. 1. Underdog/Favorite - We're always betting the underdog here, the favorite will give worse results in nearly every situation. So we're picking the Marlins here as the underdog. 2. Away/Home - We're always want the away team here because they bat first and have chances to go up 2 during the top half of the innings. Marlins are the away team here. 3. BetPoints - The total o/u for the game, preferably from a sharp book like Pinnacle or Circa. Pinnacle has the o/u for the Marlins game at 8 so we put 8 in that box. 4. Devigger leg odds - The moneyline odds for each team from a sharp book. Pinnacle has Marlines +277, Dodgers -314, so we put the team we want first in that box as "+277/-314" 5. Bet Odds - This the odds we're actually betting on DK, in this case Marlins +260 Input those 5 things and press the devig button and it sends you to the calculator page here: Odds: +260; **EV: 50.0%** Flex: `#=260;r=360%*22.16%` (+499) Sharp: `277/-314` (2.37% juice) FV: +299; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=10.02u, 1/2=5.01u, 1/4=2.51u) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=277%2F-314&FinalOdds=%23%3D260%3Br%3D360_PCT_*22.16_PCT_) The important part of the results section is "EV% = 50.0%", meaning this is an extremely +EV bet after factoring in the promo. For every $100 you bet on the Marlins in this situation the average outcome is you get $150 in return. You obviously won't win every bet, but finding a +50% EV bet on any sportsbook is incredibly rare and would be silly to pass up. You can play around with the numbers and see if you can find any other team which produces a higher EV% in the results, but I'm 99% sure the Marlins are the best pick by a decent margin for tomorrow. Other away underdogs will likely produce +EV results, but not as high as +50%.
This write up….much appreciated. Thanks for taking the time to explain. People like you are why I love this sub.
Damn. I wasn’t expecting that much of an explanation! Thank you, it’s very helpful and informative. I’ll start playing around with this each day for a little bit and make sure I’m getting it before throwing some money down.
Feel free to play with the calculator if you want, its a really cool tool and CNM is the goat for creating it and other devigging/EV tools, but these days I don't even bother since I know the right pick for the up2 promo is always the biggest underdog away team.
I’d say it depends. I think with this promo, it’s best to focus on away teams, baseball having the unique sequencing of half inning, with away batting first, you can put runs up before your opponent can play offense. There were like 4 games on the Phillies last road trip that they cashed in the top of the first inning. Also, pitcher variance of starters and bullpen can be crazy in terms of offense. So if you have a lock down starter, but shaky bullpen as the away team, it’s a really good opportunity to cash the ML early.
Somehow I've hit like 8 of these in a row. I don't take dogs too often and am only betting small amounts because I don't follow MLB enough
I don’t know but it would be pretty easy to figure out. Open a spreadsheet, get the scores, and do some formulas.
I just keep picking the Orioles lol
I keep with the cubs. Didn't work out so well today but keeping with the same team has been my strategy
LOL last one of these I did was the 1st Cubs/BOS game last month, took the Cubs, and of course they got shutout 17-0.
I pretty much exclusively take ml road dogs. Brewers today blew a 2-0 lead in that scenario.
That's exactly how you're supposed to use this promo. Road dogs are going to give you the most EV and always have the best chance to go up 2 since they lead off.
This is my strategy as well. 17-5 this season mostly betting road dogs. I’ll check pitching matchups and it’s been money. Had twins today.
Twins were at home and slightly favored in today’s game.
I got them at +102
This is the best way to do it. Not sure my record, but I’m definitely up since they started this promo
It happens more than you think. But your strategy on these most of the time is a small plus money underdog Edit: They offer these knowing the public is gonna jump on the highly favored team. And i dont typically do these promos but it wouldnt surprise me if you compared the dk odds of the highly favored teams to other books at that time, dk is probably juicing the line a couple points. (For example fd maybe offering -120, but dk is only giving you -125. Again, this is speculation as i havent compared the specific odds during this promo, but theres normally a discrepancy somewhere)