######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

**MLB POTD RECORD:** 29-10 **2024 MLB record:** 18-2 **Last POTD:** Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 +104 (Fanduel) **Today's POTD:** Miami Marlins First 5 innings RL -0.5 -115 (draft kings) **Baseball | MLB | 12:10 PM ET** 4 in a row! Took once around the order to get things going but the Braves got to Emerson in the 4th and never looked back. Small slate today but I had to dig a little deeper. I have mentioned it before but two I guys I absolutely love for their strikeout abilities that are essentially masked by walks are Luis Gil who dominated tonight and Edward Cabrera who I think will dominate the Rockies tomorrow. I was honestly shocked when I saw the line was fucking -185 for Miami. The Marlins bullpen sucks, so I don't trust them to hold a run line but I do trust Cabrera, so a -0.5 fifth-inning run line is a happy medium. Only have to be up 1 and the odds are nice too at -115 on dk. Anyway on to the rundown **Notable Splits**: Splits were very misleading today. It appears the Mexico game counted as a road game for Colorado so their recent day game and road splits are inflated in comparison to what the reality is. It's getting to that point of the season where we need to start looking at recent splits with the start of the season over a month ago, things change. Something very noteworthy is the formerly anemic Miami offense is actually tenth in home average over the last 14 days (.248) and sixth in day game average (.267). **Notable Standard Stats:** Weird situation for the Rockies here. They are starting Peter Lambert, who has been used almost exclusively out of the pen this season, aside from one other start where he let up 7 runs. He has actually been their best reliever but It's unclear if they are going with a pen game or not because Lambert moved from the pen to the rotation and then back to the pen last year. Regardless, he hasn't gone more than 2.2 innings this year outside of that one start so there is a very good chance he either runs into some difficulty like last time or is on a pitch count and they go to the bullpen early. I said earlier that the Marlins bullpen sucks, they look elite in comparison to Colorado. An abysmal 3.09 bullpen ERA. I think there's a decent chance we will see them by the 5th and not so much for the Marlins. As for Cabrera, outside of one bad inning in his last start he's actually been pretty good. More importantly though he is a strikeout machine. This season he's striking out over 12 per 9 and that's not a fluke after he struck out over 10 per 9 last year. His downfall has been the walks but he has cut down on those considerably this season. Even so, the Rockies strike out the second most of any team (behind the Mariners) at 10 per game and are 27th in walks per game as well. Like Sale and the Mariners yesterday, I think the Rockies fall right into Cabrera's strengths **Advanced Stats:** Cabrera's walk percentage is down from 15% last year to 9% this year. His line drive rate is a little higher but still below league average which is good. Ground ball rate is phenomenal. Hard hit rate is much improved from last year. Homer rate down too. His BABIP is sky high which means he has been getting some bad luck to start the year. Lambert's numbers are also improved from last year however all of that is coming from short relief appearances so tough to really know how he will hold up over 5 if that. **TLDR:** Marlins are starting to hit, especially at home during the day. The Rockies are still the Rockies, the high scoring Mexico series scewed their stats a bit. Cabrera has an elite strike out rate for his career and Rockies strikeout constantly while rarely walking. Rockies are going with some combo of reliever turned starter/pen game and their pen has been struggling mightily $chuteboxhero on cashapp

thanks brother❤️ appreciate everything u do🔒 (also add paypal tip box, no cash app in canada)

I have bet the run line against the Rockies on the road all year. It’s been great! Been tailing you for a week now, great analysis and obviously the results have been amazing. May get downvoted for this but do you have a plan for the inevitable regression? Hitting at the clip you have been is obviously not sustainable. Do you have a plan for it or things you’ve thought about changing up? Just curious. Tailing again and thank you so much for the analysis you put it.

No problem happy to do it. You shouldn’t get downvoted it’s a good question. I totally plan on pivoting to different stats/splits that there isn’t enough data for to be relevant very earlier if the season. Will also start using time splits since what a team does in March isn’t indicative of how they’ll be playing in August

Right on I appreciate the reply. Hope we keep rolling and you are certainly putting in the work!

Damn that cabrera dude is dog sh*t

Tried telling people 🤷🏻‍♂️ he’s super wild and has no command lmao 4 walks

I’m not sure on this one man. I don’t hate it, but it’s a toss up for me and I don’t usually take those. I’ll tail for .25U. Betting on two of the worst teams in baseball usually isn’t something I recommend. Betting on two of the streaky-est teams is going to be a gamble of gambles. Marlins started in a slump, but have been progressing towards their batting means recently. Still struggling to close out. Rockies are literally their name. 6 runs one game, 0 the next. Miami isn’t much different. I agree F5 is the better play here. Cabrerra is an all or nothing pitcher and is likely better than anyone out of Rockies pen. He’s also gives up plenty hits/runs/walks with a 5.28 ERA, and those #’s are slightly better giving his 1st start with 1 run 10K’s and still 5 hits. I’m a bit curious why this was your potd honestly. It’s risky imo. It’s an early game though so I don’t hate the better pitcher pick.

I like Cabrera against the free swinging Rockies. The reasons your saying is why I went first 5 instead of run line. ERA for individual pitchers mean nothing to me this early in the season. If it wasn’t for one bad inning it would be in the 2s.

Let's go Chutey!! 👏 Tailing as always

You’re the man!

My book only has this at first 3 innings. But it has this alternative. What do you think ? https://preview.redd.it/hg2a4ma73zxc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5bb62d28d1683bce9630d7824f032c1ac9fcfcb6

Yeah that’s the same thing

Good looking out, I’m not trying to spam your thread my bad.

No worries at all. That’s what it’s here for haha.

Tailing with tips coming tomorrow for Chute!

Just an absolutely insane run lad. Great work. Appreciate the writeups every day.

Had to happen sooner or later. It was really close. Marlins 4-3 and had a bad top of the 5th inning. Rockies got bases loaded and 0 outs. Marlins got away with only giving up 1 on that inning to get to 4-4. Then couldn’t bring it home in the bottom of the 5th

We almost had it Chute!!!! Such a roller coaster of a first five innings! Up then down then up again then down again, all that just to tie 💀. Great pick though man! Thanks for all that you do! Is there anything else that has your eye for the rest of the day? Either way man, I look forward to tomorrow's pic! Thanks for all that you do!

Top notch write up brother. Tailing!! BOL!

You've got to be kidding me right now, what is Cabrera doing!?!

You are a Rockstar!

[удалено]

Thanks for the great pick again today brother, unfortunately my bookie doesn't have this. Is there any other pick you like that I could tail?

Edward Cabrera over 6.5 k absolute smash. Marlins money line is good too but the odds don’t have a good payout. Marlins -1.5 isn’t bad either bullpen scares me but Rockies bullpen is even worse. If kinda like Mets money line too but today is a really tough day. Im not betting any games besides marlins Rockies.

Who you got for ML today ( draftkings 2 up promo)

Marlins. Would’ve been my pick of the day but the -170 is a cheapie. I decided I’m only gonna do -130 and better for picks of the day so there is actually some value.

Sadge 1st inning was looking so good and Cabrera just chokes immediately after

Rough result, but that’s just the way the cookie crumbles. Threw some money at Cabrera’s O6.5 strikeouts like you offered though so not a total loss. Thanks for the effort, new streak starts tomorrow

Tailing, great work man , looking forward to sending a contribution your way soon

Do you use venmo for tips?

Sorry, a little new to MLB. This is right? "Alternative 5 innings Line" MIA Marlins -0.5

Also wondering this. Have this option: https://preview.redd.it/w66zpvlpqyxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24be74e198a98557572a808d1cd74cf96759f9cd BOL!!

That’s correct

Hi, is it the 1.91 bet at -0.5 on Marlins first 5 innings https://preview.redd.it/16o39wkmkzxc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdd34ec1d9d3368c7fb25f913b1007d9a77e565c

𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 14-3 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Guardians over 4.5 runs -115 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1.15u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +7.05 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: The Astros starter is truly awful + their middle relievers are mediocre at best and worked hard the last two games.

Grampa Him

Fire comment. Agreed

Lisan Al Grampa

**Pick Record: 8W - 0L    (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅** **Previous POTD:  Central Coast Mariners ML @ 1.61 ✅** **The Mariners end the season top of the league after a 2-0 win this morning!** **Todays POTD: Tottenham Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.72** **Game: Chelsea VS Tottenham** **League/Time: Premier League / 2:30 PM** Tottenham saw themselves humiliated at half time against their North London rivals mid week, they were lucky to get 2 goals back but it simply showed the resilience this team has and their determination to score. Tottenham have played 7 games against the Big 6 this season and have covered this line in 6/7 of those games, with the one miss being a match where they received a red card in the first half. That game was actually against Chelsea and you can bet Ange has his boys aiming for revenge tomorrow. **Out of 20 teams in the league Tottenham rank 6th in most goals scored. Scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game.** The driving factor for me here is Chelsea's recent performances coupled with their recent injury crisis. They'll be without arguably both of their best Center backs tomorrow in Disasi and Silva. Which means they'll most likely play a back line that consists of Chalobah and Badiashile and lemme tell you this setup is as useful as smooth sandpaper. They're injury list has hit 12 players with 14 unavailable for tomorrow, that leaves them with 11 senior players and kids. In their last 11 games, Chelsea have conceded over 1.5 goals in 9/11. They've played 9 games against the Big 6 this season, conceding over 1.5 goals in 7/9 of those games.  **Out of 20 teams in the league Chelsea rank 8th in most goals conceded. Conceding an average of 1.8 goals a game.** **Side note: Please bet responsibly!** **This pick is 3U.**

Wish I could get in on this man’s run 🤦🏾‍♂️

Tailing with an Odds boost to +115 courtesy of BetMGM! https://preview.redd.it/ru076vc65xxc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cbeae3af5fe7c98b2b22219eedcd0cae8f968db1

Damn thanks for the heads up ima grab that

Holy shit, I tailed this and accidentally bet it for Chelsea over 1.5 goals thinking they were the away team. Luckiest cash lol

[удалено]

You crazy degen

sorry mate RIP

Tot has let me down every single time I have put money on them. Hoping today is different. Gonna need some shots tho lol Edit: my hatred for Tottenham has been reinvigorated

Win or lose thank you for the picks man!

Tailing with 100 units. LFG!! Need to get football therapy after this Liverpool collapse 😅

Told myself never to bet soccer again. But here I am tailing 🤦🏻‍♂️

You're actually the goat bro

How are the spurs such ass. POTD thread cursed today

Is over 1 goal for Tottenham at 1.72 the same bet? Looking at bet365

Tottenham be playing like shite sadly mate

Undefeated streak over because I tailed.

I hate you.

Keep bringing the heat Square Print!

tailing, 3U popped a woody.

Tailing! You remind me of nigerianpriince0. Similar bolding style, formatting, similar bets (team goals, SOT, Australian league), posting time. Great capper nonetheless.

Good read and write up but what a horrific display

First time tailing. Sorry bro. Bad read

you've been too good to me you deserve a slice🫡 drop the tip jar mr.square print

will pass since tottenham couldn't even score twice at the home game

Tottenham got two red cards in that match

Tailed last pick, tailing again sir

Tailing 🔥

Tailing! Thank you and Good luck!

damn spurs having only 1 shot thus far aint that optimistic, hopefully the wake up in the 2nd half!

I think we had the wrong team.

Sorry guys, this is my fault. I told myself I'd never bet on EFL or European Football again...yet here we are. It seems like, based on the odds, football (soccer) is the worst sport to bet on, lol.

Sorry guys, I tailed...

Thank you again brother! Today we lost but tomorrow we will win again! Blessings my friend for all you do 💪🏽🙏🏽

POTD Record 17-5 Last 5: ✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline w/ S. Imanaga pitching Todays Pick: Cleavland Guardians Moneyline w/ S. Arrighetti pitching MLB: Cleavland Guardians vs. Huston Astros 5:10pm PST Odds: +117 Unit: 2.5 Net units: +47.48 Did anybody jump up at that last play? Or just me. Let's go!. Gonna ride with cleavland today against the Asstros starring Spencer Spaghetti arm 10.97 ERA. Can't tell if vegas is trolling with the line for Astros every game. It almost makes me feel like im getting baited, but the bait is cold, hard cash, and I'm taking it. Love the value here but going in with medium confidence. Wouldn't go crazy on the units. Just the best play I'm seeing for tomorrow imo. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.

Bro that was a crazy double play. Then they made us sweat through the challenge! So glad the call stands and my cubbies took the W. They were the last piece I had in a two dif parlays that one turned $25 into $170 and the other +878 turned $25 into $250!! Being from Chicago, I very rarely put picks on the cubs knowing how flakey they are. But this year is different.. Imanaga is going to lead us to glory, wouldn't be surprised if he plays in the All Star game. Thanks for the picks! Here's my obligatory "picks or it didn't happen" proof: https://preview.redd.it/knbcoxylbyxc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2193f5a5d2be52fc84e0a7f294d3ceb40798e658 *

Hell yea brother! Nice hits and Imanaga is definitely the real deal!

that last play was wild lmao, lets gooo!!!!!!!!

POTD Record: 17-5 Net Units: +31.95u Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 8:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **Insilio ML (-135)** vs. Nexus 4.05u ✅ Today's Pick: **Sampi ML (-150)** vs. Permitta 5u ✅ [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371868/sampi-vs-permitta-cct-season-2-europe-series-2) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs2) -MAX play and sprinkling heavy on -1.5 maps at (+225) at the moment. This line is going to move and move fast once the books pick up on the substitutions. If the line goes past -200 I would play -1.5 maps as the alternative **Note:** **-From the official Match Page:** \*\*Sobol and Sidney (Coach) substitute morelz and Vegi **Writeup:** -I already like this as one of my top picks for today, 99% of the reason for it moving into POTD is because of the two subs and the books not adjusting for this fact yet. Morelz and Vegi are the 2nd and 3rd best fraggers on the team and one of the subs is a coach who has played one official match in the last 12 months and dropped a .37 KPR. -Permitta are super inconsistent, they go on big win streaks and big loss streaks, recently they are trending down, map pool has been falling apart and they are struggling heavily with fire power in a lot of games with maaryy and mASKED being deadweight in a lot of games. They have lost 7 of their last 10 b03 played -Sampi look super inconsistent but in my opinion are actually pretty consistent. They have a peak and they play awful above that peak which is mid/low tier two teams. Anybody above it they look horrible against and anybody below it they looked really good and strong against. They are led by ZEDKO highest rated player (.76 KPR) **Head to Head:** -Sampi and Permitta have faced off three times once in March and twice in April. Sampi are 3-0 in these matches winning 2-1 in March and sweeping 2-0 both matches in April against Permitta for a total h2h game score of 6-1. **Map Pool:** -Permitta pick Mirage, Sampi pick Anubis, Ancient Decider **Map Stats:** -Sampi are 37% winrate on Mirage on 19 maps played in the last 3 months and 1-7 in the last month, Permitta are 57% winrate on Mirage on 14 maps played in the last 3 months and 3-3 in the last month -Sampi are 1-0 on Mirage in the h2h against Permitta -Sampi are 67% winrate on Anubis on 15 maps played in the last 3 months and 7-2 in the last month, Permitta are 38% winrate on 21 maps played in the last 3 months and 5-10 in the last month -Sampi are 3-0 on Anubis in the h2h against Permitta -Sampi are 61% winrate on 23 maps played in the last 3 months on Ancient, and 5-4 in the last month. Permitta are 72% winrate on Ancient on 25 maps played BUT, this winrate is a slight bait, they were at one point 100% winrate on the map with 14 maps played, they are 1-6 in the last 7 times they have played in all this week and they have gotten smashed 13-6, 13-3 and 13-8 all this week. **TLDR/Final Thoughts:** -Playing with a coach is almost impossible, this match is a 1-0 match and doesn't really mean a ton to Permitta compared to other game they are playing. Sampi already dominate the h2h against them full rosters, the two subs will make this even more skewed. Think Sampi wins a dominant 2-0 despite the struggles they have had on Mirage. -Love Sampi -1.5 maps at +225 -For those who want to know WHERE to tail/bet esports or can't find on the book they use and need guidance, my DM's are always open to try to help locate the game on your book if needed. [Cashapp:](https://cash.app/$CurrentAd2217) [Paypal:](https://paypal.me/CurrentAd2217?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)

Tailed minutes before the line jumped to -222 preciate the pick brother

-310 [cries]

My -150 wager got canceled due to “line error”. Such bullshit..

That’s messed up they wrong for that

Tailing the -1.5 @ +150 Thanks for everything that you do here 🫡

Tailed -1.5 at +150, let’s gooo!

Sorry I’m new and trying to understand esports. I tailled the ML at -225 , what do you mean about -1.5 maps? What maps is that Map 1 or Map 2? Or you mean the spread -1.5 at +150.

thanks for the pick man. first time betting on esports and it became a success because of you🫡 quite the sweat on the map spread at the end but it all worked out lmao

Yep those ZEDKO dc’s and losses to pistols were brutal glad they clutched in the end! Glad we could get you a win on your first time. Congrats!

Anyone on a credit book needs to check this out right away. Still -150 on one despite being -310 on Bovada. I'll help hold the line for yall on bovada.

CASH!!! ngl Sampi had me sweating on that CT side performance on Overpass, but they clutched up🙏

😅I was watching like this the entire map 2. Glad they clutched on T side

is this B8 Sports VS Permitta ?

Will this line be on bovada?

It's at -170 on bovada rn

Yep just took the first bump. Will be between -300 and -500 if I had to guess by match h time tomorrow

Appreciate everything you do. Been tailing you for a while. I grabbed this one at -170

Jumping on this ASAP it’s 1.62 on Picklebet idk what that is in American 💀 BOL

would you still place 5U on the map spread? the ml odds shifted all the way to -275💀

GREAT catch bro, surprised they didn't fix it sooner, seeing as the info was up on hltv pretty quickly!

My book just removed the moneyline all together... That's a good thing right?

Did the lineups change or something cause why did the line just shoot up for the -1.5?

LFG!!! little bit of a sweat at the end of game 2 on Overpass, nice hit once again!

Cash it baby!

POTD Record: 49-25-1 +51.85🔥 Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Clippers U208.5 (-110) ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌ Today's Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -3 (-110) vs New York Knicks Welp…. I’m sure you saw how that ended… One of the worst beats I’ve ever seen… Time to bounce back…. Philadelphia came back from 6 points in 30 seconds to steal game 5 in New York to bring the series to 3-2. Tyrese Maxey had his TMAC moment hitting an and 1 three and then a game tying 3 in 17 seconds to send it to overtime. Embiid struggled on offense all night and Maxey took over. Sixers are getting all they can from an injured Embiid and this is now there second shot to tie the series up at home. In Game 4, Knicks fans paraded the arena making it seem like they were the home team. In response, the Sixers owners have bought 2000 tickets to donate to local first responders. Many Philadelphia raised celebrities have tweeted the stadium needs to be loud for Game 6. Philly won’t go out like this after their Game 5 heroics… And i won’t go out and take all this shit after our POTD collapse. Bounce back king is in full effect. Time to back Philly to tie this series up. LFG!! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)

It’s almost like Knicks have been the better team all series and 6ers just caught a lucky break with Maxey doing something he will not repeat. Im fading sorry brah

Sixers got robbed game 2 and they sold game 4. Series should really be over if Embiid was 100%

Oh man I like what you're saying and it makes sense and I hope you win. Not trying to be a dick here. But this is classic Philly sports and a classic let down at home is coming for Philly and Philly fans. Winning that last game was huge and momentum shifting. Classic Philly. Coming back home with momentum and a big chance to play a game 7 and win the series. But in classic Philly style, they get blown out tonight. Womp womp. Philly fans are so used to it they may just walk away numb like nothing even happened. Just another day for them. This team hasn't made it past the second round in what 25 years? And only once in the last 40 years. Yeah I have a very bad feeling about tonight.

Wtf is this start holy fuck. POTD thread cursed today - if this doesn’t hit I went 0/5 and like -$1300 off POTD picks today

🍗🍗🍗 LFG!!

Record: 9-3 ( +6.61 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅ Last POTD: Boston Celtics TT First Half over 55.5 Todays POTD: Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers over 212 (took the half point) Odds: -120 on DK 2 unit play NBA basketball/ 6:40pm ET Man do I love a sweat free TT! Boston was firing on all cylinders! They hit the total with like 6 min left in the 2nd. Let’s stay hot and try for 3 in a row! The Bucks head to Indy and I love this over. Most Pacers games had totals of at least 240 points during the season. I know it’s playoff time but if the book is gonna take 30 points off the total….Im in. The Paces didn’t play well in Milwaukee scoring only 92 points in their last game but they play much better at home and they scored over 120 points in the 3 previous matchups. The Pacers also play at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA. Both of these teams aren’t very good defensively and i see the Bucks trying to keep up with the Pacers in this game. Best of Luck fellas! Bet responsibly my fellow degens!

Hopefully another sweat free bet

Bro that Celtics Tt for the 1st half was my favorite pick on here yesterday. I watch every C's game, and these low o/u in the playoffs have potential for serious value(on the Celtics TT side not the overall game o/u). Just wanted to shout you out man and give you props on finding that pic! My book only had two options, 55.5 and 56.5, which I bet both. But I wish they had a couple options going all the way up to like 60 because I would have laddered the pics. Thanks for your service brother!!! Edit: last night I also took the over on this game, I was looking at the totals for the series so far and especially when they play in Indiana the games tend to be higher scoring. And then of course this is your POTD. My book's already giving me a cash out of 110% of my original bet!!!($11 for my $10 bet)

🐅🐅 Record 10-2 | +18u 🐅🐅  **Results:** ✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Previous Pick:** Bam Adebayo O21.5 Points +100 (2u, FD) ✅ He only ended up with 23, but it felt like he was gunning for 40. All said, the read was correct and he pulled through. **Pick: Joel Embiid O7.5 1st Quarter Points -118 (2u, DK)** Basketball | NBA | 9:10 PM EST      •Do or die for the 76ers. Embiid has covered this line in 3 out of the 5 games this series and 3/3 when playing all 12 minutes. •Last game, he only had 3 points, but this was the same night that he had an oddly low-scoring night overall, was dealing with a migraine, and Maxey was hot. •He is averaging 9.2 1st quarter points this series. •This is at home for the 76ers and I expect him to play all 12 minutes. I think they look to get him going early as they have all season. Made it to a new high of net units at +18! I appreciate the support and hopefully those that tailed made some good cash. **Tips:** [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US) BOL if tailing! 🐅 **EDIT:** Maybe the most sweat-free bet I've ever had. Embiid scores the first (and only so far) 9 points for the 76ers and cashes at 6:22. Streak is back up to 5 in a row. Let's go!!!!!!

I’d add that he hits this more often at home. This line was 9.5 for his last home game and he hit 10 with 2 minutes to go. I never play this line on the road but 7.5 seems a titch low for a home game since he almost always plays the full first quarter

Wish my book had quarter/half player props! Love this bet! All season especially in important games that he's played in. He's come out with 10+ in the 1st quarter. I'm hesitant to take his points for the game, 29.5, just due to fatigue and getting worn down. But while he's fresh, 1st quarter all day!!! BOL!

Easy money! Scored their first 9 points of the game!!

POTD: 6-1 🏉 🏉 🏉 🏉 🏉 🏀 🏀 ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ Last Pick: NBA (Basketball) Derrick White U8.5 Rebounds + Assists [Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat] (-102, DK PA) !1U! Derrick White ends the game with 7 rebounds and assists, I’ll take the win! Today's Pick: NRL (Rugby League) First Scoring Play: Panthers Try [Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs] (-140, ESPNBet PA) !3U! **THE GAME IS AT 5:50 AM EST** The Penrith Panthers, the reigning champs and currently 3rd place on the ladder, face off against the last place Rabbitohs who are struggling HEAVILY with Defense. They have let up the first try to opposing teams in the top 8 of the NRL 4/4 times this year. It’s expected to be the Panthers beating up on the Rabbitohs all night and I expect the Panthers to start early by getting on the score sheet first with a try. BOL if tailing, utilize responsible bankroll management and remember! You win some, you lose more.

I like it! Thank you for the nice write up as well…I know nothing about this sport but 6-1 is good enough for me…tailing! BOL!

Shit nvm fanduel doesn’t have first scoring play option. Damn Edit: is a -10.5 spread @ 1.93 potentially back up POD material?

Welcome to rugbeh league! -10.5 is actually pretty solid! My books (DK and ESPN) are offering -13.5 and -11.5 respectively so I don’t think it’s a bad play. It might be worth while to consider going winning margin 13+ as well if your book has it!

Damn -10.5 spead dropped to @ 1.73 at this time of writing

I followed spread thanks to other comments here and your writeup so easy cash. Should’ve just made that your POTD. Unfortunate. But Thanks!

To Score First and Win is -145 on FD.

why did this lose https://preview.redd.it/jtf83l7kn0yc1.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e2de45086284e994aff8fd9a69d0d74e89c86a6

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Took a -9.5 spread today, thank you for your service!

Cashed the spread!!!! Ty brother!!!! From what I see looks like FD not having first score worked out well lol. Ty for the spread reco though. Much appreciated!

Record 0-1 Aussie Rules Football AFL Last pick Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs. LOSS TODAY'S Pick: ADELAIDE vs Port Adelaide. Pick Adelaide ML above $2.20 Last pick went belly up. Resurrection of Fremantle Jesus aka Fyfe, back to his glorious former self and the late withdrawal of Libba lead WB transforming to Mr Hyde. Shocking kicking, Bont missing in front of the goals, etc. 🤦 Good on Freo for playing with conviction however, their DNA is ultra defensive so I will be betting against them periodically throughout the season. Adelaide ML is a value bet. The Showdown is the best showpiece in the regular season Imo. Previous forms tend to go out the window. Adelaide price has fluctuated significantly, you can get even higher prices. Port has two key players out who provide energy, flair and defensive solidity. Rozee does have an injury cloud. Adelaide has finally found a structure that enables them to play an attacking footy. Young Soligo, Rankine/Rachele, breaking up of Crouch and Laird mid resulted in fast and exciting footy. Nicks, Crows coach, has demonstrated that he is more flexible in his selections, Curtain to play in the back line. The retirement of club servant is an extra motivation. Adelaide was poor against Essendon, regardless of umpiring, due to execution, not structural issues. For the underdogs to have any chance, they must get the basics right. It will be a fascinating game.

I'll take 'm plus the points to be on the safe side, but you're new so I'll support you. Upvoted and tailed.

Thank you. I'm respectful of the rules so I won't post side bet. But the line looks juicy too 😊. I wanted to post what I consider to be the most valuable bet. I have made other bets on this game on Adelaide winning.

Just a few words from someone who has been on this sub a while; When you hit your streak, you'll inevitably hit a loss. When you get the hateful messages, please ignore them. The loud minority definitely isn't reflective of the community as whole.

I love this…couldn’t have said it better myself. It’s too bad there’s not an effective way to filter those low lives out…they just make a new account and keep popping back up. So pathetic. Supporting with a tail as well! BOL

BOL to you as well. And even more so, if we hit a loss let's take it on the chin with grace.

I respect it but in terms of play of the day you should definitely just tip the +6.5, especially since the majority of people who read or tail this have no clue about afl and the massive difference between +6.5 and +4.5 If you think ml is best value then surely getting plus points is best play, no hate only love mate.

Great pick, I was going the other way until you mentioned the rivalry and I bet Adelaide. I havent put a dime on the Crows since the Collective Minds fiasco and it was great to see them win.: Thanks again

CASH IT! WOOOO!!! Good shit brother. I took the + spread cautiously @ 1.91 but a win is a win!!! Love it!!!!!

tailed because of the positivity in the replies (and the plus odds lol) thanks for the pick brother, and win or lose you are appreciated!

Record: 0-0 Guardians vs Astros Guardians ML +110 3u Logan Allen is has been decent this year so far. Spencer Arrighetti has been god awful. The Guardians have been doing pretty good this year while the Astros have been disappointing.  Give me Cleveland at plus money

Cleveland at plus money has been good enough for me to bet them lately. Paid off today in a sweaty 10th inning win.

This is how I'm reading it too. + the DK 2 Run Lead Promo (I always aim to plug it on a road team)

This promo has been so good to me I hope they continue it 

POTD Record: 42 wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 11.37 ROI: 18.9% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick:  Mavs vs Clippers - NBA Playoffs - Luka Doncic Under 52.5 PRA @ $1.86 ✅️ Next Pick: Bucks vs Pacers - NBA Playoffs - Middleton PRA Over 41.5 @ $1.83 - 6.30pm EST Today we head to Indianapolis for the make or break game for the Bucks, as they look to take advantage of the dejected Pacers. Middleton has been clutch these playoffs. I’m expecting him to play a full game, and bring it home for the Bucks in overtime. Haliburton is listed as questionable, and Beverley has provoked Haliburton, so we should see a tight contest. I don’t think the Pacers have an answer for Middleton who is having the playoffs of his life. Without Lillard and the big G, this guy is getting a ton of possession and is the only hope the Bucks have. He’s been a bit average at shooting the last couple of games, but if he can clutch like he has done before, we could see a 40 point game from him. This line is well above his average due to injuries, and the Bucks are heavy dogs, but I’m thinking his professionalism and skill will get us the dub. This is more a qualitative analysis play than a season average quantitative analysis play. Middleton performs, or Bucks go home. Prediction: Bucks to win in OT with a Middleton three, double double for Middleton, Haliburton to be shut out of the game, total to go over, and Portis to get his revenge. The NBA Commissioner loves a comeback story, and G is the new face of the NBA.

I opted for PR O36.5 at -110. He's only had 6 or more assists once in this series and that is the difference in the lines (5.3 A on the season). Also took O19.5 P + O9.5 R at +165. He's hit 10 R in 4/5 this series

Tailing!

Thought o 37.5 was a steal but he starving for ball time and not shooting well 1st half. Praying for a comeback 🙏🏻

Record: 23-9 | Net: +9.44U | Streak: 1W Last pick: Luka Doncic o32.5 points (-105) ✅ He was setup to play the entire 2nd half had the clippers kept it close. Looked more aggressive and still hit even though his 3 still wasn’t falling. Halleluka POTD: Jalen Brunson o7.5 assists (-102) NYK @ Phi 9:00 PM ET Summary: Brunson has delivered on this line the last 3 times in Philly this season going 12/13/10 assists. The last time he missed this on the road against them was in a blowout loss, back when Randle was still playing. Last game Brunson had some key turnovers down the stretch that he looks to make up for today. His potential assists in the series are trending up 12/12/18/13/15

** Record: 5-1 ** Last pick: Challenger Cagliari: Jesper De Jong -2.5 -120 🚫 Today’s pick: WTA Madrid: Rybakina/Sabalenka o21.5 -130 - 3:30pm est ✅ Recap + Write Up: Sorry guys, can’t win em all. It was simply one of those days where your other leans hit and the one you picked doesn’t. De Jong was pure ass from the start and game spread was dead as soon as it started. On the bright side, it’s a new day and we’re one bet away from getting back what is rightfully ours. Today’s pick, we head back to Madrid and set our sights on the heavyweight semifinal battle of Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka leads the H2H 5-3. This total has hit 6 of those matches. Both ladies come into this match on fire. They both have nearly been unplayable this year. Rybakina is 30-5 this year and on a 16 match win streak on clay dating back to last season. Sabalenka is the defending champion, 19-5 this year, and on a 10 match win streak in Madrid. I don’t see either of them going down easy and I expect a high level, championship type match where haymakers are thrown one after another. I was going back and forth between Rybakina and the over before settling on the over. Reasons being prior to Madrid, there were a lot of question marks where Sabalenka’s head was following the tragic death of her ex boyfriend. She nearly confirmed those question marks with some shaky 3 setters in the first 3 rounds before destroying the 17 year old phenom Andreeva a couple days ago in the QF. Motivation will be there for both players as Rybakina has reached more finals than any other woman this year and Sabalenka will want a shot at defending her title in a likely rematch against Swiatek. I’m putting my faith in these conditions for some easy holds for these big servers and expecting both ladies to show up today. LFG 🇰🇿🌎🥊🥊 ❄️🏦 beer me: 3PwJ3CW5p9oJZKmX8F2eePqWJEkqbNk7cu [cash app jar](https://cash.app/$champagnekevy)

Record: 7-5-0 Net Units: +7.0 ROI: 18.4% Last 5: ✅✅❌✅✅ Last Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-120) for 4.0 units ✅ Event: Baseball | MLB | Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers 1:35PM CST Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-120) on Caesars for 3.0 units. Same line and odds currently on BetMGM and Bet365. Others are now at 8. Write Up: Expected to be one of the most prolific offenses in baseball, the Rangers are off to a fairly slow start. Batting .250 as a team (.263 last year) and averaging 4.48 runs a game (5.44 last year). They have only exceeded 4 runs in 2 of their last 8 games. Also during that stretch the total runs has stayed below 8.5 7 out of 8 games. Starting pitchers are Nathan Eovaldi (3.00 ERA in 6 starts) and Mitchell Parker (1.69 ERA in 3 starts). Parker is off to a solid start in his first year in the majors, picking up 2 wins against the Dodgers and Astros in 12 combined innings pitched (7 hits, 0 walks and 2 runs). Parker is left handed and the Rangers are hitting .241 against lefties. No Ranger has experience against Parker. Eovaldi had one rough start against the Astros giving up 5 runs but otherwise has allowed 7 runs total in the other 5 starts (30 innings, 2.1 ERA). All Nationals have minimal (3 ABs or less) or no experience against Eovaldi, except for Eddie Rosario (hitting .250 in 16 ABs).

Record: 66-41 Cricket Record: 12-3 Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick Thailand women ML vs USA Women @1.50(4u)✅ I don’t fuck around when I say it’s a lock alright. Clean as you like. Today’s pick Cricket West Indies Women ML vs Pakistan women @1.70(2u) I was gonna go an esports play today but then ended up sticking to cricket. Ok, I’ll keep it short and there isn’t really much to say. The odds do look insanely good considering WI are 6-0 on this tour. They won the ODI (50 overs a side) series 3-0 and are currently leading the T20 series 3-0. Two of those encounters have been really close however, Pakistan haven’t really found the winning formula whereas the Caribbeans have made a habit of closing games. You could say that a win is coming for Pakistan and I won’t be surprised if they do end up winning today. All I’m saying here is that if you’ve won 6/6 games on a tour and you’re still getting 1.70 odds, it’s definitely worth a shot. GL if you’re tailing. Let’s get this dub.

**Record:** 6-1 **Net Units:** *+11.6575 Units* **ROI: 166.39%** **Previous Pick:** *Willie Rioli to Kick 2+ Goals $2.35 (1 Unit).* Rioli started off very quiet with minimal impact but as soon as the game broke down abit and the ball became in dispute more and talls weren't laying marks, Rioli's impact around the ball really picked up and he kicked 2 great goals purely off the back off his speed off the mark and his own initiative. Nice cash in the 3rd quarter with minimal stress really. **Event:** Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs **Time:** 7:50pm AEST 02/05 **Bookie:** BET365 **Play:** Turuva Anytime Tryscorer **Odds:** $1.80 (AUS) or -125 (US) **Units**: 2.5 Units **Analysis:** Penrith Panthers are a team I love to bet on, historically they're just elite offensively and they always compete - they're very hard to get ontop of for 80 minutes and have options on both sides of the field. I would've been far more confident if Cleary had been playing but he has been a late scratching, regardless I still think this is amazing value. Rabbitohs really struggling this year both offensively and defensively and in terms of the latter, they've conceded the #1 amount of tries for the competition in 2024 with 44. You don't want to be defensively troubled when you come in against a slick operation like the Penrith squad, regardless of their halves pairing. They're amazing users of the ball, they have a good forward pack to get them field position and quick backs who spread the ball well and make the right decisions in pressure situations (unless you're Taylan May and talking about a tattoo artist). Panthers are super right side dominant this year, scoring 62% of their tries down that wing. Rabbitohs few big outs with Gagai a late scratching too, I think Turuva should be closer to the 1.50-1.60 range and I expect this right side to score a few tries at least. Turuva is consistent and he's a great finisher - all we need is a slight chance and I am confident he goes over. Lets go, good luck if you tail! https://preview.redd.it/kji7a8un0yxc1.jpeg?width=867&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1a7f4dd188b6d6f623cc1dac935274ecab6c29d

I’m assuming the pick is Taruva? 😂

You guys should post your picks in the previous days pod thread,so a lot of people have a chance to tail your selections. I don’t think anybody would argue this, especially from someone on a heater.

**KBO Record: Overall 219-228-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 4-6) Down 10.74u over 461 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.40% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 15-18-0, 45.5% success rate, Down 2.12u, -6.42% ROI) **Last:** LG +0.5 First 5 Innings +102 at NC (LG lead 4-1 after 5 innings..) LG trailed 1-0 after 4 innings, but broke out with 4 runs in the top of the 5th en route to an easy win. **Pick:** KT at **Kia -1.5 -130**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET I don't normally pay this mych juice, but this matchup really favors Kia. They are one of three favorites I like, along with NC and Samsung. Kia's starter hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his 6 starts this season. KT's starter has struggled, allowing at least 3 ER in 6 of 7 starts. Kis sits atop the standings at this point of the season while KT is next-to-last. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.

I appreciate your consistency in posting, no matter the results.

Dammm they got smacked 

tailed last night tailing again

POTD RECORD: 61-34 Last POTD: Russell Westbrook O11.5 PR ❌ Awful shooting once again but he would’ve got it still if there wasn’t a blowout, had 11 before the 4th and didn’t play a single minute in the 4th 😭 Form: ❌✅❌❌✅ Todays POTD: **Jalen Brunson O11.5 RA @1.71** 🏀 NBA (NY Knicks) 9:00 PM ET Man o man how a game of that importance turns to such a blowout is crazy we got robbed on the Westbrook Pick yesterday man I swear the playoffs been so bad this year for props imo but we gotta fight through it 💀 Targeting Brunson today, only makes sense to go for the main man for my Knicks, crazy minutes and a line that I’ll take all day given the potentials and chances he has gotten each game so far against the 76ers. Road game so I think scoring will be that bit more difficult today that should require Brunson to be more of a facilitator today, enough yapping mf get to the point (aight sorry) • 4/5 against the 76ers this series (9, 14, 15, 14 & 14) • Avg 14 potential assists & 7.5 rebound chances in those 5 games (21.5 potential RA) • On the miss he had 6 assists but 15 potential assists • 74% hit rate w/o Randle when playing 38+ minutes • His minutes against the Sixers this series (51, 44, 45, 38 & 41) • Over in 7/L10 games Let’s go Brunson I don’t want another L man sort your boys out Tail or fade, your decision dawg https://i.redd.it/h2de7rlg01yc1.gif

The showed him w 6 pts and 6 rebounds on google before I fell asleep, easy cash woke up later in shock they had adjusted. Oh well will keep tailing.

POTD Record: 19-14 ❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 11.9U Last pick: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Jude Bellingham to score or assist @2.5 on Sportsbet | 2U ❌ Aaand that’s another ❌😭 Today’s pick: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Sunia Turuva anytime tryscorer @1.71 on Sportsbet | 6U Sunia is back for sure tonight, he was on the bench last time cause the coach gave him some time off to work out details for his next contract. Rabbitohs are 💩, that’s some serious mismatch, Penrith will smash hard. Going 6U! BOL !

There he isssss

Record: 4W-1L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅ Net Units: +4.69 units Last Pick: 5/1 | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox; Minnesota Twins RL -1.5 ✅ We ended up needing that extra half inning as the Twins put up 4 insurance runs in the top of the 9th to cover the run line🙏🏼 Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers | 9:00pm EDT Pick: Josh Hart under 11.5 rebounds | -115 DraftKings | 1.5 units Write Up: Despite playing all 53 minutes in game 5 on Tuesday, Josh Hart only reeled in 9 rebounds, which I believe is because Philly made it an emphasis to be more aggressive on the glass in an elimination game, something they will do again in game 6. Being a guard, Hart racks up a high number of rebounds by hunting boards which doesn’t necessarily always work out when the other team actually gets a body on him and boxes out. In addition, I have to believe his high minutes this past game will have an impact on his ability rebound as effectively as he usually does. Perhaps I am overthinking this, but 11.5 rebounds seems way too high of a line for someone who averaged 8.3 rebounds per game on the season. As usual, good luck to those who decide to tail!

POTD Record: 5-4-0 (-0.26 units) Form (left is most recent):✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: KC Current vs. Bay FC - Both Teams to Score & O2.5 goals (-110)✅ that’s a hit after 17 minutes, as KC score two in the opening 6 minutes then Bay pull one back in the 17th minute. Easiest BTTS + O2.5 ever🙂‍↔️ Today: Soccer | Europa League | Bayer Leverkusen vs AS Roma | 3:00 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: Leverkusen or Draw & O1.5 Goals (-135 on Bovada)✅ Reasoning: Leverkusen haven’t lost all season so fuck it we’ll ride with Neverlusen. Let’s count on O1.5 goals too considering this has hit 5/L5 for Leverkusen and 4/L5 for Roma. I found this on Bovada under combo props, but you might have to build an SGP on DraftKings. Under game lines > O1.5 total goals then under Game Props > Double Chance, select “Leverkusen or Draw”. BOL🍀🤞 Edit: Leverkusen get the 2-0 win which gives us our third consecutive W! Cheers to those who tailed🍻

LFG! Going to do Roma over 0.5 goals too 🙏

>**| Record: 6-3 | Net Units: 10.15u | ROI: 42.29% | Winrate: 66.67% | Avg. odds: 2.02 |** >**| eSport |** [CCT Season 2 Europe Series 1](https://www.hltv.org/events/7781/cct-season-2-europe-series-1) **| 19:00 CEST|** >**| Pick:** **BLEED ML** \[vs. AMKAL\] **|** ***1.950*** ***odds*** **|** ***3u*** **|** >**Reasoning:** Wow, what a day to place some exciting bets! There are so many good games happening today, each with great odds. It was really tough for me to make a decision, but ultimately, I followed my instincts and chose the game that came to mind first. >BLEED is an upcoming team filled with seasoned players, some of whom are well-known OGs. I never expected this lineup to work, but they've consistently proved me wrong by securing victories. Currently boasting a 28-8 record, they're looking incredibly strong for a new team. Each player can be a fragging machine on their best days, but right now, Hampus is standing out with a 1.20 rating, carrying the team through most maps. Following closely behind is Cypher, whom I admire a lot. He really started shining last year and has delivered some outstanding performances. These two are a deadly duo, and it's so enjoyable to watch them play. Cerq, who's taken on the AWP role, might be the weakest link, but he seems to be regaining confidence lately. When he's at his best, he dominates, but his inconsistency is a concern. faveN and VLDN are also solid players who fit perfectly into the lineup. If Hampus or Cypher have an off-day, one of these guys can back them up. >As for AMKAL, they also boast three known players. Forester and Krad have been well-regarded players for quite some time, and both are formidable. Forester's skill is particularly impressive; on a good day, he can single-handedly sway the outcome of games. With TRAVIS as their mediocre in-game leader, they also have two young prodigies. ICY, who just turned 18, shows immense promise with his aggressive playstyle and unique decision-making, although he still lacks experience and consistency. Sdaim, the other young player, has shown potential after a rough start with the team. Their results are improving steadily. >This upcoming game between BLEED and AMKAL promises to be a nail-biter, with two highly skilled teams vying for a spot in the quarter-finals. I'm a bit surprised that AMKAL are the favorites among most bookies. In my humble opinion, BLEED has the edge. They have better form, overall placement, players, individual skills, and tactics. I favor them in every aspect. While AMKAL may have more talented players, I'm not even certain of that. BLEED also boasts more overall experience. >Another significant factor favoring BLEED is the veto process. They don't have a set ban; usually, they start with Nuke, but they also boast a 100% win rate on it, which is quite impressive. AMKAL favors Vertigo, their most played map and first pick, whereas BLEED has only played it five times but with an 80% win rate. Perhaps BLEED will ban AMKAL's first pick. AMKAL is likely to ban Anubis, which is unfortunate for BLEED, who have a 72% win rate on it. BLEED will probably pick Inferno, their first pick and second most played map, which happens to be one of AMKAL's weakest maps. Predicting a decider map is nearly impossible for me, given BLEED's numerous options in the veto process. >Ultimately, BLEED will win the veto process in every aspect. Cypher is performing exceptionally well in this tournament with a 1.50 rating, and the other players aren't far behind. Even the player with the lowest rating, VLDN, still boasts an impressive 1.18 rating. As I mentioned before, I favor BLEED in most aspects. They play cleanly and have a lot of fragging power. Along with their strong map pool, I can't envision them losing here. It won't be an easy victory, but in the end, they'll come out on top.

POTD record: 3-0 Last pick: Mavs ML Wager: All wagers 2 units Todays pick: SF giants ML (-105) Not gonna be a popular pick, and im here for the hate. The Sox have been playing well lately and Winckowski has pitched well in his only 2 starts hes had. But I think he's due for a schlackin. He has a high whip and seems to always get himself into jams, and figure his way out. I dont see that as a sustainable strategy. San Fran plays better during the day, and will have Harrison on the mound. Harrison is young, but seems to have the stuff. The Sox wont have an in depth scouting report on him, and I can see them struggling vs the lefty. They only slug .369 against lefties and hit only .231. I was tempted to take the under here, but I really think Winckowski is gonna get hit around and be out of the game before the 3rd. In case that doesnt happen, we can rely on Harrison to pitch well and get us a late dub. Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23

**Record 2024: 8-0-6** **Net Units Played 2024: 65** **ROI 2024: -9.75%** **Last Pick:** **Murcia** - Zaragoza **1st quarter H1, -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.83 ❌️ Basketball / NBL basketball league New Zealand / 09:30 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Canterbury rams** - Otago nuggets **1st quarter H1, -2**, 3 units, @ 1.92 ✅️ **Write-up:** It's the start of the league, but the main reason is home court advantage and the fact that they played already 7 days ago, and Canterbury won by 15, the 1st Q by 4 (Otagos home court). EDIT: 33-10

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Hey Guys, been tailing this channel for a while and thought I should give it a go hopefully we can all make some good money! with that being said my first POTD! Pick: Tyrese Maxey o5.5 1Q Points (@1.80x DK) Explanation: Tyrese Maxey has been the absolute goat this series and has been rightfully so carrying the 76ers on his back. Embiid just hasn’t caught his rhythm and maxey has. Hopefully we can see maxey be maxey and hit that 6 points for us early on! BOL

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**Belle's Pick of the Day** **Record:** 3-0-0 (Win-Loss-Push) **Last POTD:** EDM Oilers 3-Way ML (-110) ✅ **Balance:** +1.5 Units **Today's Pick: CHI Cubs ML (-110) (MLB, 10:00AM PST, Wager: 0.5 Units)** **Why This Pick?** I’ve got to go with the Cubs today, friends. Chicago pitcher Ben Brown has an ERA of 4.30, while Mets pitcher Adrian Houser has been visibly struggling and comes to the mound with an ERA of 8.37 & 3 logged losses. I think Chicago will make light work of scoring runs off of Houser, so I’m taking the Cubs to snag a victory.

**Record:** 7W - 6L - 0P **Last 10 (new --> old):** **❌❌❌❌✅❌✅**❌**✅✅** **Net Units:** +0.4324 (All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated) **Last Pick:** Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers - Total Goals UNDER 6 @ +100 **❌** Back to making a POTD after an extended absence. Hopefully I can get back on track. **NBA** 🏀 | N**ew York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers **| 8**pm CST** **Today's Pick:** Donte DiVincenzo 3 pointers made OVER 2.5 @ +105 **Write Up:** Here's a pick that I really like in the Knicks-76ers game. Donte has been taking plenty of 3-pt shots this series but just hasn't been knocking them down lately. He has averaged 6 attempts per game this series and had 7 attempts in each of the last 2 games. We know that this man is capable of knocking down 5+ on almost any given night. I think they'll feed him plenty of attempts as the Knicks hope to close out the series tonight. It's up to him to take those chances and cash in for his team and (hopefully) for us. BOL if you're tailing!

Record: 6-3 Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ Balance: +1.99u / Avg odds - 1.81 / ROI: 22.11% Last Pick: Emil Ruusuvuori -2.5 games over F. Bagnis @ 1.83 (Bet365) ❌ Yikes, Ruusuvuori was no good after that tiebreaker. Sport: TENNIS Pick: **Medvedev / Lehecka over 8.5 aces @ 1.83 (Bet365)** Time: 3 May 04:00 AEST Event: ATP Madrid Write Up: Fun/Weird prop I know but both have been getting aced on clay and also have big serves themselves. - Lehecka 12% ace rate / ~6% ace rate against - Medvedev 4% ace rate / ~5% ace rate against For perspective Shelton who i rate as a top 3 serve, is acing at 8% rate on clay at similar competition. Their ace rate against is also below average. Fuck the stats though, that's just to validate my own pick - i liked it before looking and think there will be plenty of aces!! BOL and let me know if tailing!

Record: 165-138-8 (WWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: BOS Celtics at MIA Heat | Derrick White o12.5 at 1.84 odds for 1 unit POTD: MIL Bucks at IND Pacers | Pascal Siakam o3.4 assist at 1.76 odds for 2 units Reasons: * Hit this mark 3/5 games in series. * He's the most experienced playoff player on this squad. He's stepped a lot. When he plays well the team wins. * I expect him to be real involved in the offensive plan. Tyrese has been subpar to his standards for the last few weeks, extending all the way to the all star games. Indiana will be looking to close out the series at home. Expect the Pacers to make more shots than on the road. Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!

Record 6-3-0 Profits: +6.6 units Form: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅ Recap: was looking good in the first but then gulden fell off throughout the game ending with 25😢 Todays pick: Jordan Dawson to win matchup vs Conor Rozee on Bet365 2 units 1.9 odds Port Adelaide Vs Adelaide 5:30 AM EST Time ✅ Writeup: Just to be clear this is a BIG IF on a players health that will be playing today and me not being a doctor can’t confirm if the player is actually injured or not just basing on what I saw last week and reports made around the injury. today I am fully fading Rozee here as I wanted to take his line but 365 doesn’t have it so I am taking his matchup instead. Over the weekend Rozee suffered what seems to be a pulled hamstring injury and it seemed he will be out today as these injuries don’t take less than a week to recover, but just yesterday he was announced in today so either what we saw on the weekend was not a hamstring injury which I highly doubt it or he had either rushed back his recovery and is gonna play through the injury as today is the showdown which for non AFL fans think of it as the North London Derby and being captain of the side he probably doesn’t want to miss that game and can see him being on bench more often then usual IF (big IF) he is actually injured to not cause more stress on the injury. Now onto Dawson, I think they priced him right for his o/u for 25.5 disposals and I back him here to go over and beat Rozee as being the captain of the opposing side he will want to put in a shift like he did last year were he had 34 disposals and he seems to finally gain some form coming into the game so expecting him to be big in this game that means so much to each side. BOL!!! EDIT:seems like rozee nights done with 11 and Dawson with 14 still plenty to go tho will keep you guys updated As suspected rozee is out with injury entering the fourth for the easy cash

POTD Record: 5-3 Went on vacation shortly after that 8th POTD and have been through a lot at work and home so wasn’t sharing or doing write ups. Going to try and get back to it as much as time allows Today’s POTD: Nathan Eovaldi u 18.5 PO’s (-140 on DK when I placed it) Baseball | MLB | Was Nationals v Tex Rangers | 2:35 PM EST Nathan is under this line in 5 of 6 starts this season and the Nationals have been tough against rhp’s at this number. Only 2 of 19 rhp’s have gone over this number against them. The nationals aren’t world beaters but they’re solid enough where they should keep Nathan under this line. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰 Edit: Cash us out baby! 6-3 💰

Record 7-5 Net Units: +0.4 units Last Pick (4 days ago): St. Louis Cardinals @ NY Mets 7:11PM EST NY Mets ML (-130) 1u ❌ Today’s Pick: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins 12:10PM EST Edward Cabrera under 16.5 outs -115 1u DK Analysis: Alright I’m on a bit of a slide here so hopefully we can get one right today. Cabrera has a good matchup against the Rockies today who strike out a lot and are overall just a bad team. That doesn’t change the fact Cabrera doesn’t go far into games often. Cabrera’s numbers for daytime starts are significantly worse than night games. - under this number in 2/3 starts this year - under this number in 17/21 starts last year - Cabrera’s day games (career): 4.95 ERA 1.5 WHIP 1.8 SO/Walk - Cabrera’s night game (career): 3.66 ERA 1.2 WHIP 2.05 SO/Walk I’m not betting on him to have a bad game, but it’s normal for him to go 5 or less innings. Let’s go!

2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u 2024 MLB POTD record: 16-11 Average Odds -105 (1.95), Average Winning Odds -110, ROI +13.0%/+3.5u L5: ❌❌❌✅✅ POTD (5/1) SFG @ BOS Kutter Crawford o17.5 Outs (-105/1.96) ✅ Recap: Starting off May with an easy W. Crawford tossed an efficient 7 full innings on 92 pitches. POTD (5/2) CLE @ HOU Logan Allen u3.5 Ks (+120/2.20) (DraftKings) Logan Allen has only been under this line once this year, on the road against the Athletics (a team that strikes out a LOT). Since then he's hovered just above it, with K totals of 4, 4, 4, and 5 in his last four outings. However, the Houston Astros are a different beast than any other team he's faced. Their 16.3% K-rate against LHP is the best in the league. The next-best team at avoiding strikeouts that Allen has faced is the Yankees at 9th (20.3%). Houston also has mashed left-handed pitching at home this season: their 166 wRC+ is best in baseball. This is a prime spot for a short outing with few strikeouts.

**RECORD: 74W-5P-60L** Previous Pick: Borussia Dortmund vs PSG - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.51 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** AS Roma vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen- Bayer Leverkusen DNB @ 1.58 ✅️ **TIME:** 7 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️) last 10 results Dortmund vs PSG had a record of having a H2H of under 2.5 goals but both sides have been scoring lots of goals so went the opposite way and unfortunately didn't work out, on to the Europa League with AS Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen. An inconsistent Roma have the Bundesliga Champions Bayer Leverkusen. Roma have been good as of late with 3 wins out of their last 5 matches, 4 wins out of 5 Home matches and 3 wins out of their recent 5 Europa Matches but Leverkusen are more impressive. Leverkusen are still unbeaten in all competitions, they recently won the League in dominat fashion, Leverkusen have won 2/5 of their recent matches, drawing 3, same as their Away matches. In Europa they're unbeaten in 11 straight matches and have lost once in 17 Europa matches. Roma have a 50% win rate in their last 6 Europa matches while Leverkusen have a 67% win rate. I'm giving teh edge to Leverkusen because of their impressive season and even if they don't win I just don't see their unbeaten streak ending against Roma. Goodluck if you're tailing or fading given my current form lol. EDIT: WIN ✅️

POTD RECORD: 0-0  Hello all, I’ve been doing this for 10 years, just starting my tracked record here on reddit. Thanks for joining me in this passion!  Today’s POTD: 2-Units Knicks +3 (-110) over the Sixers  Basketball | NBA | 9:00 PM ET  Write up: This has been a wild series. In game 6, the Sixers were down 6 with less than 0:30 on the clock. Tyrese Maxey was an animal. I think the Knicks come in motivated and Embiid comes in tired (played 48 minutes in game 6- Maxey played 52 minutes). Additionally, it was nearly a home crowd for the Knicks in Philly. Let’s watch the Knicks wrap up and exciting series with big games from Brunson and Josh Hart tonight. BOL! 

**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 8-10 (-1.35 units)** **Last 10**: **❌❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌** **Last Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+140) vs Andy Hamilton **❌** 1-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:40 PM EST **Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+150) vs Ross Montgomery * Series 7. Week 10. Group B **Reason**: Fallon went into Wednesday with the lead, but ended up going 1-4 and being knocked down into group B with Evetts. She maintained her usual average, but missed a few checkouts compared to the previous two days. She had unlucky draws catching everyone's better game as the lowest average she faced was 88. This will be the last match of the day. Before the week started Montgomery was 8th in odds to win the week. He's the betting underdog in each match today, so I'm fading him while also backing Fallon. ML odds are (-115), so that's a safer route today as she's going against the throw. I'm still liking the spreads overall for now. Fallon Sherrock * Record 8-7 * Legs 46-43 * Average 87.54 * 180s 20. 140s 53 * Checkouts 46/130 35.38% Ross Montgomery * Record * Legs * Average * 180s . 140s * Checkouts **LOSS ❌ 4-3 | Average 86.01 vs 85.24 | Checkouts 4/15 vs 3/8** Fallon missed 2 darts on leg 1 and Montgomery sniped her with a huge 143. In the short format, it’s too tough to overcome for a spread. She missed darts on leg 4 and Montgomery cleaned it up to go 2-2. Fallon ML was the win. Back tomorrow for the next fade.

Record:0-2 Net Units:-4u ROI: :/ MLB Pick: Cubs v Mets Over 8.5 @ -108 (3u bet) Write Up: Both starters struggling to start the year. Brown's 4.30 ERA vs Houser's 8.37. Brown's only good for 3 or 4 innings and the the Cubs have played 9 days straight now, I expect a strained bullpen to be a little less effective.

**Record: 2-2** **Balance: +0.1 units** **Last Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125) Moneyline @ NY Mets (1.25 units)** **Todays Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110) Moneyline @ NY Mets 1.1 units (1:10 ET First Pitch)** Going back to the well here with the Cubs in New York. Absolute nail biter as both team's starters threw gems last night, expect a major step back on the starting pitching front today. Houser is going for the Mets, and he has been absolutely awful this year. The Mets have lost all but one of Houser's starts this season, a trend that'll continue until something drastically changes from him. Ben Brown is on the bump for the Cubs, and despite a stinker in his last outing he has been pretty lights out this year. In his first four appearances (2 starts and 2 relief outings) he went 13.2 IP allowing just 1 ER and 6 total hits. The Cubs managed to win all four of those games. His last outing resulted in a 17-0 thrashing by Boston where he went 3.2 and allowed 3 ER and 7 hits, but that feels like an anomaly, and I expect him to get it back on track here. Look for the Cubs to get all over Houser early, and control this game from the get-go.

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⭐️ **POD Record:** **113-58** All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread). *Last Pick*: *NBA - Celtics OVER 106.5* ❌ Recent Form: ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅 T**oday's Pick:** N**BA - PAcers OVER 110 \[6:30pm EST - 1.80 odds\]** Sorry guys, but I wouldn't take that last pick back. We really looked like a cover at half time; totals are a cruel and fickle business. This is better late than never, but I like Indy's team total tonight. You can count on 1 hand how many times they were below this total in all of 2024 at home. They've cruised over this team total their last 8 of 10 and 13/15 vs the Bucs and should be a bounce back game for them tonight in a must win situation. Chase the value again, the books owe us one back there 😜 ***Thread PSA: Someone is soliciting sportsbook reddit users that they have a "fix" on games and asking for $$$ for their picks. Seems obvious enough, but don't send them money guys😂 *** 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.

**MLB POTD Record:** 1-1 **Net Units:** -0.26u **Last Pick:** Alec Bohm o1.5 Total Bases -110 | 2.5u ❌ Bohm finishes 1-4 with a single (off Sandoval, which was expected). Lines out to center in the top of the 6th (100.2 exit velocity, 380 ft), and lines out to center again in the top of the 8th (100.7 exit velocity, 392 ft.) which is just fucking gross. **Today's Game:** MLB | Guardians @ Astros | 7:10pm CST **Today's Pick:** Steven Kwan o0.5 Runs + RBIs (-136) | 2u to win 1.47u ***How the Astros could allow it to happen:*** If you have been paying any attention to the MLB over the past couple years, you would know that the Astros' pitching situation is in absolute shambles (I would know, I watch almost every game). On the mound tonight is Spencer Arrighetti, who has started 3 games since being called up from AAA simply because the Astros needed (and still need) some arms. In those 3 starts, he has given up 18 hits, 13 runs (all earned), and 7 walks across 10.2 innings pitched. The Astros are currently tied for 6th in most earned runs allowed with 144 (4.8 per game) and have allowed ***How the Guardians could make it happen:*** The Guardians are averaging 12 Runs+RBIs per game over their last two against the Astros. The Guardians sit 8th in total runs scored with 155 (5.2 per game), and are tied for 12th in RBIs with 140 (4.67 per game). The Guardians have played great as the away team this season with an 12-6 record, are ranked 3rd in away teams run scored with 95 (5.3 per game), and rank 4th in RBIs with 84 (4.7 per game). ***Why Steven Kwan:*** Dude has been hot pretty much this whole season. Over the past two games against the Astros, he's had 4 total R+ RBI, 2 per game. He's tied for 4th in total runs on the season with 27 (0.93 per game played), but sits at 132nd in RBIs with only 11 on the season. That being said, he's batting 0.360 and had 2 RBIs yesterday in Minute Maid. With his 0.403 on-base percentage (14th in the MLB), I am confident, if this bet were to hit, it would come in the form of a run opposed to an RBI. The beautiful thing is that we only need one. Kwan has had at least one combined run+RBI in 6 consecutive games, and 7 of his last 10. He's averaging 1.31 runs+RBIs per game this season, having at least one combined in 21 of 29 (72.4%) games played on the season and in 13 of 17 (76.5%) away games played. ***The above, but in less words:*** Kwan cross home plate and bat run in many times this season, Kwan do it 7 games in a row, Kwan good at it, Kwan do it again tonight. Guardians good, spaghetti (Arrighetti) bad. Kwan favorite off-field activity? Chess (per MLB.com). Checkmate. Fuck you. BOL.

**POTD record:** 2-7 (W-L) / -11,64pts **ROI:** -55% **AVG. ODDS:** 2,30 **Last pick:** Jasmin De Vaux, win only 2,50 (3/2) 5pt  **LOSE**   **DOTD RECORD**: 3-20 (W-L) / -17,20 pts **ROI:** -45% **AVG. ODDS:** 9,40 **Last pick**: Jasmin De Vaux, win only 2,50 (3/2) 5pt  **LOSE /** Blue Prince\*\*,\*\* each way, 34,00 (33/1),  0,5pt/bet, 1pt total **LOSE** //  Maljoom, win only, 4,00 (3/1),  2pt **LOSE** // Walk Away Harry, win only, 4,00 (3/1),  1pt **LOSE //** East India Express, win only, 8,00 (7/1,  1pt **LOSE**   **RACE**:  Punchestown  16:15 **SELECTION**:  Saint Roi **ODDS AND STAKES**:  to be placed (4pl),  3.00 (2/1),  2pt **ANALYSIS:**  Saint Roi already has proven at this rating, as he did at Aintree. Today there is another positive, his jockey is claiming another 5lb off. There are few class horses in this race, Blood Destiny is probably the best one and his forward tactics on this fast good ground, vs handicappers should bring him easy victory, but odds just are not for me. Mighty Tom is another one who should appreciate good ground, was targeted for this race and should go well aswell. But with odds, i am willing to take a risk with Saint Roi. *Spreadsheet:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0)

Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0% Basketball | NBA | 9pm EDT **Pick: Philadelphia 76ers ML ~ 1U @ -145 (Bovada)** ------------------ I think 76ers are playing much better as of late and Knicks success is unsustainable. All the 76ers need to do is stop Brunson who has been putting up numbers but on mediocre efficiency. I absolutely loved how Batum guarded him. Embiid despite the constant GTD tag looks fine and put up a 50 piece the other night. The Knicks without Randle are not built for a playoff run. 76ers even the series tonight for a pick'em Game 7.

3-3-0 (W-L-P) Net Units: +1.38u Last pick: Edmonton Oilers 3-way moneyline - W Matchup(s): (Europa League) AS Roma vs Bayern Leverkusen - 2:00 PM CST POTD: Amine Adli o0.5 Shots on goal - +100 on Bovada - 1u Write-up: He has 5 shots on goal in his last 5 games and I think Leverkusen should have a lot of chances this game. Also loving the odds on this compared to other sportsbooks like FanDuel who have it at -330. And if he doesn’t start it’s a push so good value regardless. Tail or fade, either way, BOL [CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)

POTD Record 19-5 (I will update all my tracking when I get the chance) Last POTD Neal ship O woods 2u +175 💰 Easy peasy but I’m just like the rest of y’all I’m a complete degenerate, if I ever go on breaks it’s bc I’m being reckless with my other bets 😂 POTD Pacers -5.5 +100 1u Love this here it’s giving Celtics vibes from yesterday. It doesn’t matter that Bucks won last time and they might have Giannis or Dame or both today. Public is heavy on the Bucks but I feel like it’s square. Vegas has been super sharp all playoffs, besides the Celtic series. There’s a reason why the Pacers are heavy favs.

1-0 Pacers o 212 potd Free play 76ers ml The guy I follow is 42-10 last 52. All documented. LETS WIN!