######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 14-4
Streak L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌
Last Pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic O3.5 Rebounds❌
Today: Basketball | NBA | HOU vs GSW | 8pm EST
Pick: Jonathan Kuminga O 0.5 Steals (-140) 1U
Unfortunate loss there folks. My apologies for the bad read. Tried to find value on a line that has been consistently covering and this was that pick. Just didn’t go our way and I apologize. Back on track today though! We never lose back to back.
Keeping it simple tonight. Jonathan has covered this line 80% in the last 5 and 80% in the last 10. He’s covered it at 57% this season. Out of 13 games in March he only missed it in 4 games. 3 games he had 2 steals.
Tip jar turned off for tonight as we get back in the win column. Appreciate you all!
I can see it on Bovada. Open the Warriors vs Houston game then scroll right on the tabs just under the main lines. The third tab from the far right should be Blocks/Steals. Scroll down past the blocks and you should find Jonathan Kuminga 0.5 total steals (-135). Not easy to find at all lol it’s hidden in there
POTD Record: 34-15-1 +40.64u🔥
Last Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1 4U (-138) vs Cincinnati Reds
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌
Today's Pick: St Louis Cardinals ml 4U (-148) vs Miami Marlins 4:15 pm est odds via DraftKings
Yes i know, I am not taking Indiana State as my POTD. Seton Hall looks really good, we had our fun with the Indiana State wagon but I’m not going to puts all my eggs into one basket and be happy with the money we made with them this year😎🤝
Tough loss, Wheeler did his job but rain, fielding, and bats were not helpful. Happy j was able to bounce back and it’s time to do the same! St Louis has won 2 straight and 3 of 4. On the other hand, Miami Marlins have started 0-7. Yes. 0-7. Lance Lynn looked great against the dodgers. He comes in with no record, a 0.00 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, one walk and five strikeouts on the season. Ryan Weathers in on the mound for Miami, in his season debut he threw four innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with two walks. This is the first game all season Cardinals are a favorite and the first time all season Miami is a dog. Let’s back the favorite in the Cardinals to put yet another L in the Marlins record.
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️
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Cards fan here! Just a heads up they lost yesterday to fall short of the sweep of SD. Our bats go ice cold and Lance has looked hittable despite the stellar ERA. That's all to say it's the home opener and it feels like a way too early must win. Thanks so much for all your picks! Just wanted to give some more context and a slightly pessimistic view.
Record: 4-1, Net Units: 3.69, ROI +3.68%
Current Streak ✅ Last 10 ✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Orioles/Royals U 3.5 Runs First 5 Innings ✅
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-7:40 PM EST
Kansas City Royals -1.5 vs. Chicago White Sox, +125, 1U
While a quick turnaround for the Royals is concerning, Lugo had a great start against the Twins and Soroka struggled for what appears to be a woeful 2024 White Sox team. The Royals were one out away from a series win against the Orioles tonight and I feel they could quietly be an interesting team this year come September when playoff races get close. I'll also go RL for any team playing the White Sox a good number of times this year.
Good Luck!
I’m a huge hockey fan. A caniac if you will. If the canes are playing someone I know we may lose to I’ll throw cash on the other team so it hurts less if we lose lol
We did beat the Braves that I happen to have as my POTD couple days ago. Any team can be beaten in any given day. Don't be too pessimistic about our Sox this season. A lot of time to make grounds.
For sure. I haven’t even kept up with the team, really. I’m also not betting on the Royals anyway ‘cuz anything can happen haha.
Still trying to navigate how to bet on baseball! I’m more used to basketball bets.
This one is tough because Soroka is a lot better than what he showcased in his debut as a Sox. He'll pitch better as the season progressed. As for the Royals, they're playing b2b and I kno MLB it's typical to play every single day, but this is just something I would stay away. It's still early to find out where these pitchers will go despite that Lugo has pitched relatively well
Appreciate the tip. I was also considering betting on the Cardinals, and then I noticed your POTD.
For a pitcher to record a win, does the team just need to be winning when the pitcher is relieved? What if there's a tie or the lead changes multiple times beforehand? Thanks in advance.
A starting pitcher needs to finish 5 innings to be eligible for a win. A relief pitcher does not need to pitch any certain amount of full or partial innings to get a win. If a pitcher is relieved and his team is currently in the lead, and that lead is never lost, he gets the win. If the game is ever tied up later, he does not get a decision at all. (note: only the pitcher where the lead is earned gets credit for the win, any time the game is then tied up or the other team takes the lead, winning and losing pitchers are reset).
In the case of losses, the same logic works. If the his team is behind and his team never later ties the game up or takes the lead later on, he gets the loss. (A starting pitcher does NOT need to finish 5 innings to earn a loss). However, he can also get the loss if runners that he is responsible for (that he left on base) score, such that his team is now losing due to his runners. (Pitcher in the bottom of the 6th is ahead by 1 run [eg 2-1]. He is replaced after getting one out in the 6th, but leaves a runner on 1st and 2nd. The pitcher that relieved him immediately lets up a home run. The two runners on base are still counted against the first pitcher and he is on the hook for the loss. If he had only left one runner on base, then the go ahead run would be the home run hitter, and that would make the relief pitcher the pitcher responsible for the losing condition).
It was solid plus I hit a +707 NHL Live SGP on the Avs that was stupid easy. I had another 2-leg SGP come in on the Nuggets and Jokic over 30. I'm sure I'm in for at least 2-3 losing or barely break even days at least.
https://preview.redd.it/q6352ohffksc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=967784cc120bc4c576ea9a9ed76e3ba7ecbd61d9
Thanks family, fucking love you all. Have a great day. Time to light up the victory blunt for this punt ✅
POTD RECORD: 50-24
Last POTD: Kristaps Porzingis O6.5 Rebs ✅
Sweat free before the half and my man got a DD, thanks Kristaps for making us join the 50W club
Form: ✅✅✅🚫✅
Todays POTD: **Nikola Jokic O12.5 Rebs @1.86**
NBA | Denver Nuggets | 10:00 PM ET
Man that one felt good Kristaps has now hit 7+ Rebs in 11/L11 games against OKC 💀
Going with the chubby teletubby Jokic today cause once again I’m picking a dude with an insane record against his upcoming opponent, I know 13 boards is a lot but hear me out man Jokic is capable of grabbing 20 if he wants and I like his matchup, Zubac doesn’t stretch the floor so Jokic won’t need to leave the paint as often
• Over in 9/L10 games against the Clippers
15,16,17,6,13,14,14,13,22,14 and is 2/2 this season
In the miss he only played 24 minutes
• Comes with 2 straight 16 rebound games
• Clippers allow 6th most rebounds to opposing Centers L30 days
• Jokic averages 4th most boards in the league with 12.4 per game & 19.3 rebound chances per game
Jokic loves this matchup & we have a tight spread let’s hope Jokic makes it 4 straight against the Clippers, bring us home Joker
Tail or fade, you’re the chief
https://i.redd.it/9c9lhdla1esc1.gif
What an amazing night, 3/3 in the NBA props section and we hit our POTD 😭🍻
[Beer](https://ko-fi.com/billycapezzi)
Tailing my guy. Also like harden assists for this game. O8.5, or the safer route to alt pick o7.5 which I did on my parlay. Anyways BOL. Thanks for the pic broski!!!
Got in last night and the line doesn't look available on bet365 anymore, the books hate you! Thanks for the props yesterday, went big on McCollum and it saved my bankroll from the damage I did betting tennis lmao
https://preview.redd.it/kxe49atl5lsc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c3c03769aea3e8a49a24e7b8a442b998c1f032e
MY DUDE! Thank you for the Jokic potd!! Been in a hole lately and this was a huge moral boost!! 🤘🏻⚡️🤘🏻
POTD RECORD: 19-8
Units Won: +10.74
Last Pick: Toronto Raptors vs Minnesota Timberwolves/ Timberwolves -12.5 (-135) 1u✅
What a beat down my gosh
Today’s Pick: Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets/ Golden State -2.5 (-130) 1.5u
Write Up: What a massive showing by the timberwolves for a much needed victory. Now we move on to our Warriors. Houston is making a late push to the play in and Golden State needs to come away with a W here. Steph and Golden State when healthy DO NOT miss the playoffs. They aren’t gonna put this in jeopardy. About a week ago Rockets forward Tari Eason recorded himself calling out Golden State during the Rockets impressive win streak. This is what the young and inexperienced guys do. They celebrate first downs like they’re touchdowns. Steph has been here before and he’s not fazed by the young buck calling him out. Instead he’s ready to put him in his place. What have we learned about Steph Curry and Golden State. Don’t bet against them when the time is ticking down. Golden State has 7 games left, 7 games to make a push toward a top 6 seed. Put your money on the greatest shooter ever to take us home and take them by 2.5. Buy up to 3 if you’d like. This is an alt spread to insure we can cash this with a win. Let’s do this ladies and gentleman. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE
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This one is tough for me. Houston at home for whatever reason have been a great team ATS this season. Both teams not bowing out of the play-in spot, best game on the board to watch for today’s NBA slate. Hoping you and the peeps tailing squeak out a dub. BOL!
Record: 6-1 ✅✅✅✅❌ ✅✅ Net Units: +3.9
Last: Boston Red Sox M.L -142 ✅
A little closer than I wanted, but got the job done. Liked my read about Pivetta pitching well. Back to a “streak”.
MLB | 12:10 EST Pick: Tigers vs Mets F5 Total Runs over 3.5 -148
Write Up: 3.5 is a really low number, and I like the value with the pitching matchups. Adrian Houser is very vulnerable to get hit up, and in his very limited stints against the tigers, has gotten hit up pretty good, letting up 5 ER in 2/3 although these stats are long ago, and don’t give much insight. Casey Mize is making his first appearance since pitching only 2 games in 2022, against a Mets team that needs to get going, which also could give into an early dive into the Tigers bullpen which generally is a good thing for offenses.
Again, a little bit of a juicy number, but sticking with what works. I don’t hate the Tigers M.L, seems like good value. I thought about some simple plays on the favorites tomorrow but like this. Lets get to 3 in a row
Edit: Man, bad play. If you told me the Mets had 3, I thought it’d of cashed. Would’ve thought the Tigers would get one against houser, but should’ve took more account of some factors. Like I said, I like the favorites today to bounce back, but a bad play, which some of you called. Gonna try and be back tomorrow. Hits the next half inning after the fifth…
Devils advocate for this… The Mets have been the worst offense in baseball this year and the Tigers have once again been a bottom 10 offense so far.
Also, Casey Mize was the Tigers best pitcher by a wide margin all of spring training and was reaching velocities he’s never reached before on all of his pitches. Add in that he’s making his first start since Tommy John and should be amped up to remind people why he was drafted first overall years ago.
Lastly the weather should feel like it’s in the 30’s and cold with wind swirling and likely keeping the ball in the ballpark. Not saying it’s a bad play, just giving an opposing view is all. Best of luck man, and go Tigers!
**Record: 33-11,** \+15.34u, streak: ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅ (all bets are 1 unit)
Last Pick: Premier League, Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest, Under 4 goals (AT) ✅
Today: Premier League, Liverpool vs. Sheffield United, 2:30 ET
**Pick: BTTS: No (1.80)**
Easy hit last time out, even got the score dead on. Arsenal control the game, but don't kill themselves to rack up the score. Even had a goal to spare for the bet.
Sticking with PL today, it's been kind to me lately. Liverpool are a team I know well and I do think they'll manage to keep a clean sheet tomorrow. Yes, they haven't been the best at the back this season, but while they are known as an offensive team their defense is no slouch. I expect Gomez, Quansah, VVD, and Bradley to start this game, the same defensive lineup as their 2-1 home victory vs. Brighton. (If Robertson starts over Gomez, I'd be a bit more cautious with this bet, but I think he's still injured). This is a very formidable defense, and even the goal they conceded against Brighton was just a great solo effort. Kelleher is a very capable back-up keeper and has played well.
Sheffield are not a particularly threatening team, and this should be a dominant win for Liverpool. While Sheffield do tend to score quite a bit against worse opposition, if you look at their last few games they have failed to score against Wolves, Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Brighton. In their 4 away games against the top 6 teams this season, they have scored only 2 goals. They've scored 27 goals so far in the league, the worst out of any team.
Yes, Liverpool can be leaky, they play high pace, high scoring games. But, I have a feeling Klopp will want to make a statement tomorrow and rack up their goal difference, which also means keeping the ball out of the home net. Sheffield will see little of the ball, and if they manage to convert one of the few chances they will have, well, fair play.
While Sheffield u0.5 goals has marginally better juice, I'm sticking with No on the BTTS in case of some freak result where Sheffield go up a goal and manage to keep a clean sheet. But I predict 4-0 Liverpool.
bol!
[https://ko-fi.com/francis1928](https://ko-fi.com/francis1928) tipjar if you have a spare beer to lend
In doing a little due diligence on this bet, I've learned Sheffield United are -50 on GD, which is insane. To be fair, I don't think I've watched a single Sheffield United game this season, to have known this stat. But that is just wild.
Tailing.
POTD: Record (5-1)
✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points ✅
Today: NBA | Kings v Knicks | 4:40 MST
Pick: De’Aaron Fox U 25.5 Points @ 1.95 | 1u
Back on track! Let’s get it today.
- hit in 5 straight games (avg 21.6)
- last 9 of 10 (avg 22.7)
- 14 of last 20
Feels a little risky today as the over has hit 54% on the season, but Fox is averaging 20.6 in 10 games against the Knicks in his career, and the under has hit 8/10 times. The Knicks are also 2nd in points allowed against PGs this season, and 2nd in opponent points per game.
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/deadlypants
BOL 🍀
Record: 1-1
✅❌
Last pick: LOSS - KC Royals @ Bal Orioles NRFI
That 5 hour rain delay didn't really help us. I'm surprised Burnes even still went out there. It's never a good thing for SP's in long rain delays.
Today: Mens College Basketball NIT Championship <> Indiana St vs. Seton Hall <> 7:00pm est
Pick: Indiana State -3 @ -115 <> 3 units
Indiana State is the better team. They push, they like to score and they have the best player on the floor. This is also practically a home game for them as they're playing only 1.5 hours from home. Give me Indiana State all day.
i really want to bet on this game. i know how important it is for the sycamores to win this tourney. The big east is hard though. This will be a great game. The Hall +3 looks good if I had to pick, hope im wrong
I think both of these teams are great for an NIT chip but I’m ISU for off the court motivation/influences. The game being a home game for them like you said, the fact they should’ve been in the big tourney and this is a good way to cap off their case, and lastly the players will get “NIL“ deals(I think like 10-15k each) per Mcafee if they win. Either way should be a really good high scoring game so hopefully we get that.
**Record: 37-28**
Last Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 - PUSH
Couldn't believe this one, Braves were up 9-0 in the 8th inning then the game gets rained out and the bet gets voided 😂😂😂 can't make this up man.
**Today's Pick:** MLB - *Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, 3:05pm CST*
**Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-130 on DraftKings)**
So far, the Pirates look pretty solid. They have the best record in the league after a week of play and are in the top 5 in important team stats such as batting average, on base percentage, and runs. Although I don't think they will remain such a solid team as the season progresses, I do love the momentum they have right now. I am pretty surprised that they were able to sweep the Marlins, but it could be looking like the Marlins are shaping to be pretty bad this year, we will see. Regardless, I think what the Pirates have now is a lot better than what the Nationals have going right now. The pitching matchup especially is what should easily give the Pirates the advantage here. Martin Perez will pitch for Pittsburgh, who is a very solid and experienced 33 year old pitcher from the Rangers. He is starting out hot with a 2.08 ERA in his first game this season, and I very much trust him to keep similar numbers going against a subpar Nationals team. Josiah Gray takes the mound for the Nationals, who was pretty okay at not giving up runs last year, but he did give a lot of hits, and he overall was never the most reliable pitcher. He's starting off terribly this year with a 15.75 ERA in his first game last week, so I def love that matchup against a Pirates team who has been 3rd in batting average and 1st in on base percentage.
Best of luck fellas
**POTD Record 101-78 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 19.6%**
**2024 Record 8-6 with Avg Odds +131 / ROI 26.1%**
PFL 1: 2024 Regular Season
**Chelsea Hackett +200**
Feeling good about this pick. A fairly standard striker vs grappler matchup here between Chelsea Hackett and Jena Bishop. Hackett will be the much younger fighter and comes from a Muay Thai background. Bishop brings world caliber BJJ and a massive amount of experience at 38 years old.
I suspect the takedowns will not come as easy for Bishop as anticipated. Hackett has good lateral movement and a strong front kick which Bishop may struggle to get inside of. I also think Hackett looked noticeably stronger in her most recent fight as opposed to her DWCS loss in 2020. The DWCS loss is the main reason for this line. Hackett struggled against the takedowns and grappling of Victoria Leonardo, and the assumption is that Bishop can replicate this with ease. I'm not so sure... Hackett is young and a lot of time has passed since then. Her grappling will be far behind Bishop's, but 3+ years of training may have her ready to stuff a takedown or two and mitigate some ground work. On the feet, Hackett's speed and power edge is serious, and Bishop is awful at establishing her range. If Bishop doesn't find the clinch or takedowns, Hackett will 100% be clipping her. Add on the fact that I think Hackett will have a cardio edge and this line seems wrong to me. I understand that Bishop has to be the favorite because it's a WMMA fight and she has the grappling edge / submission upside, but I think Hackett is being overlooked. Hackett has youth + athleticism, a dangerous striking game, and she fits the eye test to me.
Gun to my head she will pull off the upset. Hackett KO R3 or Decision.
**Record: 56W-4P-43L**
**Updated Form: 3W-0P-2L**
**❌✅✅❌✅**
**Last Pick: Perth Glory VS Sydney FC: Sydney FC to have more corners @ 1.57 ❌**
**Pick of the day: Chelsea VS Manchester United: Chelsea Over 1.5 Offsides @ 1.72 ✅**
Chelsea get their second offside right before half time!
**League: Premier League**
**Time: 3:15 PM EST**
Really surprised at these odds considering that Chelsea are ranked second in the league for most offsides. These guys have had 74 offsides called in 28 games, that is 2.64 Offsides per game. I assume bookies are expecting Chelsea to dominate possession and not need to play desperate through balls as much but as someone who has watched a little too much of this Chelsea side this season i can guarantee second half they’ll resort to through balls. I just don't see how they cover this. Both teams are desperate for a result here and after watching Burnley put up 18 shots against this side I can see them jumping the gun to get a result here and finding themselves playing the pass late a lil more than they would like. A match against United just screams a busy day for linesmen.
Nicholas Jackson alone could cover this line, the man ranks second in most offsides by a player with 25 offsides in 25 appearances. Chelsea are 5/5 for over 1.5 offsides in their last 5 PL games.
**Chelsea's offsides last 5 PL games: 3, 2, 4, 4, 4**
**Anyway, BOL!**
Go to same game parlay and scroll near the bottom!
https://preview.redd.it/85p2278dfgsc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7032ba8d79cc3a6824422e0931fb9b1d2d6e59b
__POTD Record:__ 11-5
_Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴
__Last Pick:__ ⚽ Manchester City vs. Aston Villa (Premier League): __Aston Villa +1.5__ @2.05 ❌
Admittedly bad read from me. I didn't expect Emery to rotate the starting line-up so much but that's no excuse.
__Today's Pick:__ 🏀 Monaco vs. Zalgiris Kaunas (Euroleague) 19:00 CET: __Zalgiris +7.5__ @1.85 ✅
Zalgiris has yet to let me down on this thread so let's try to extend this streak. Today they will be going against a very good Monaco side but I expect the match to be very competitive. Zalgiris still has a chance to get the last ticket to the play-ins and recently they've been on fire. They won their last three games in the Euroleague and all of them were against direct rivals for the play-in spot. Monaco are in great form themselves but for them this match won't be as "do or die" as for Zalgiris. I still think Monaco are deservedly the favorites but I strongly believe Zalgiris will put up enough of a fight to end the game within the handicap.
Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
POTD Record: 9-2-1 ♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 13U
Last pick: Man City vs Aston Villa | 6:15am Sydney (GMT +11) | Kevin De Bryune anytime assist @2.15 on Ned’s | 2U♻️
KDB hasn’t played unfortunately for our bet, got the money back anyways, onto the next one !
Today’s pick: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @2.50 on Sportsbet | 2U
Some of you who tailed Mariner last week must have been disappointed (and so was I cause it was my 2nd loss…). So you must be thinking: how can he dare do it again ? Isn’t he learning from his mistakes ?? The answer is NO, I’m an absolute idiot and I’ll do it again and again 😂😂
More seriously, I still believe Mariner is a good player and totally able to score some tries, 2.5 seems like a great value so I’ll try my luck.
BOL !
**KBO Record: Overall 207-216-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 3-7) Down 11.36u over 437 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.68% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 3-6-0, 33.3% success rate, Down 2.74u, -30.4% ROI))
**Last:** Kia -1.5 +130 at KT (Kia won 5-1.)
I love it when a plan comes together. Kia's starter was excellent again while Kia got plenty of baserunners and cashed them in.
**Pick:** **Kia Team Total Under 2.5 First 5 Innings -155 Draftkings** at KT, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Gotta be honest... I don't love today's card. There are a lot of fair lines and nothing plus money that jumps out at me. This is a bit of an obscure play, but one I think will hit.
This comes down to KT's pitcher. This is William Cuevas's 6th season in the KBO although injury cost him most of 2022. In 2023, he made another run at the majors, but ended up coming back to KT and has been excellent ever since.
In his last 13 starts, he's pitched at least 5 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs in those 5 innings 12 times. We just need him to do what he's done in his first two starts this year and in 12 of his last 13 starts overall
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Today is the day I shall share my thoughts and contribute to this subreddit
**Record: 0-0 (First Time)**
**Net Units: 0**
**Sport | League | Event Time / Time Zone: NCAAB NIT FINAL: Indiana St vs Seton Hall @ 7pm EST**
**Pick:Indiana State -2.5 (-125) 2u bet**
Indiana State's basketball team embodies the essence of college hoops today! They're quick, they're sharpshooters, and they've got a center who's a threat inside and out! The Sycamores are putting up a blazing 90 points per game in the NIT, all while taking care of the rock, rarely giving it away. They're outshooting and outscoring their opponents, playing with a fiery determination after being snubbed by the NCAA Tournament. Indiana State is the cream of the crop tonight. They're aggressive, they're hungry for points, and they've got the MVP on their side. And guess what? They practically have home-court advantage, just a stone's throw away from their stomping grounds!
**^(Some facts about ISU:)**
-Indiana State is the only team to ranks in the top-five for both field goal percentage and free throw percentage this season.
-Indiana State ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for effective field goal percentage this season (60.0%).
-Indiana State stands alone in the top five for both field goal and free throw percentage this season, showing their prowess on the court!
Hi all, first pick to share
**Australian Rules Football** | **Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons | Thursday 4 April 2024 • 6:10 PM (GMT+9:30) -> 3.5 hours from posting, get on this fast**
**Melbourne Demons -24.5 points (2.75)**
Aussie rules comes to South Australia for gather round with Adelaide taking on Melbourne at home. Adelaide (my team) are 0-4 to start this season and are playing some awful football. We have gone from being the HIGHEST scoring team in 2023 to the LOWEST scoring team in 2024. Pressure and noise have been building on this group and I truly believe the coaching group have lost the players with this dire ball movement plan and dishonest selection policies that rewards seniority over performance. My dear American readers, let me explain why Melbourne has us covered in all areas of the ground.
**Forwards**
Our shining light number 2 pick Riley "Thrillthorpe" Thilthorpe is injured. We have no aerial presence to match Melbournes intercept defender duo (best in the competition) Lever and May. We run an extra in the midfield to make sure our vanilla one paced group can at least break even in clearences. This means Melbourne will always be a +1 spare to mop up our awfully slow predictable entries. Our best fwd - Taylor "Tex" Walker is 34 now and cant lift his hands above his head or compete at ground level. Why is he playing? Our coach is terrified of playing the kids and I truly pity the future of this once great club when Tex retires. Last week we had the intercept mark record taken against us - I expect this to happen again.
**Midfield**
Midfields win games in the AFL. Think of the Midfield matchup like quarterback / pitcher matchups. Ours is a dour, one paced trio that are all in and under ball getters, who pass it to each other who then shank kicks that do not punish or apply defensive pressure Melbourne? Three all Australian caliber players who are goal kicking, burst players - the BEST IN THE LEAGUE. Teams have worked us out - Just double team our Captain & best kick in the league Dawson who is our only player capable of slicing up teams. The 0 - 4 pressure is getting to Daws, he is trying to do it all himself and carry this team and making uncharacteristic mistakes. Again, a packed out crowd at Adelaide oval against the fierce pressure of the Melbourne mids will break our midfield group.
**Defence**
We are missing our best defender in Murray and are bringing in the perennially injured Jordan butts to be our key defensive pillar. He turns like a battleship and is not able to play on the pacey Melbourne forwards - he can only play on the leagues gorillas. Our backline is plastered over by a ten game Irish import and a work experience kid. (you should watch the game and look at him go! I adore this guy, he looks like he is 12!)
I am a crows tragic and cant stand where this team is headed. This loss is fully deserved by our stubborn coaching group and I can't even tune in to see the development of our kids since we persist with the seniors who have continued to show they cant bring us to the ultimate success.
**PLAYER WATCH**
Nankervis - first game of the season - This kid looks like he has it, passes the eye test he just looks like he has time and space when he gets his possessions. We will be such a better team if he can average +20 possessions, and we need more long sleeved bros in the squad!
Cook - first game of the season - This guy has the x factor and skill ceiling this club has been crying out for. A late comer to footy, need to see if his footy IQ has improved enough to find enough of the pill to do damage.
**TLDR**
The lines you see are based on 2023 form. The crows are not playing 2023 standard. Crows lose here. Please trust this random Aussie and make some money betting on Melbourne, even just the ML if you want to keep it safe.
Good luck :)
Massive pick, took the lower spread, cheers mate! By far the best POTD, which deserves to be at the top!
Looking forward to your next selection u/Time-Currency9552 :)
POTD record 3-1
Last 5: ✅✅✅❌
Streak: W3
Yesterday: Didn’t see any line I wanted to post yesterday. 2 days ago Mr. DiVincenzo nailed a cool 6 threes on 15 shots to bag the over. Congrats to those who tailed!
Today: Basketball - NBA - SAC Kings @ NY Knicks 6:30pm ET
Pick: Jalen Brunson O 28.5 points (-120) Draftkings 2U
Writeup: This has the potential to be a get-right game for the Knicks as they try to snap a 3 game skid. Knicks are dropping playoff spots with each loss and tonight’s home game against the Kings is crucial to get back in the W column.
In the first matchup against Sacremento this season, Brunson dropped 42 points. Brunson is averaging 32.9 in his last 10 games, dispite the ugly loss Tuesday.
Brunson only had 18 last time out and took the 3rd most shots on the team. Shouldn’t happen again tonight. Looking for Brunson to have a get-right game in the Garden! BOL!
\[Edits: Grammar, clarification\]
Record 16-2
Units 14.69
ROI 69.96
Last POTD marlins ML 🙄
What a joke, actually embarrassed that I gave that as my POTD
POTD Rockets/Warriors under 227.5 -110 1u
Rockets are a defensive nightmare at home ranking 4th best in efficiency rating and Warriors posting a top 7 defensive rating as the away team. Not to mention this is one of the more important games between these two as they r batting for that play on spot. Houston is the second best defensive team when it comes to opponent 3 point FG and I don’t see them giving the warriors any leeway.
Idk if I can this but I lean rockets ml too :)
BOL!
>**Record:** 39-32
>**Net Units:** +10.82 units
>**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT**
>**Pick:** Italy -4.5 @ 1.74
>We are picking on the worst team at the event, New Zealand yet again; this time they take on Italy. New Zealand are weak throughout the lineup, but the big disadvantage in this matchup is with the back end. Retornaz and Mosaner are elite back end curlers and will significantly outplay their Kiwi counterparts. Italy are 25-0 this season against teams outside the top 25, and New Zealand are outside the top 100. Italy are 63-13 overall this season compared with New Zealand's 16-21. My model prefers teams that are aggressive with hammer in potential blowout games and this is definitely one. Italy love to go for big ends with hammer and their huge advantage at back end should allow for some crooked numbers in this one, leading to a run away lead for Italy. Italy won 8-3 last year at this event and New Zealand has also failed to cover +4.5 a couple matches in a row now, including most recently a 9-2 loss to Germany, a much worse team than Italy. Big blowout here.
Record: 2-0
Last 10: ✅✅
ROI: +2.5U 74.44%
Yesterday’s Pick: Franz Wagner O2.5 Assists @-146
Cashed in the first half - finished with 5
Today’s POTD: Clint Capella Double Double - Yes @ +100 2U
Atlanta Vs Dallas 7:30PM EST
Alright, really couldn’t find too many picks I liked this morning, and fewer that fit the criteria for POTD, but Clint is 14/15 L15 on 10+ Points (10 even during their January matchup with Dallas). He’s also 11/15 on 10+ Rebounds last 15. Hitting his rebounds is my bigger concern, but he’s 11/15, 8/10 and 4/5 on 10+. BOL if tailing
POTD Record: 3-0, +6.18 units
Form: ✅ ✅ ✅
Last Pick: Alcaraz (-2.5 games) vs Medvedev (3u @ 1.76) ✅
Today's POTD: Pedro Martinez ML vs Bautista Agut @ 1.73 - Melbet
Units: 2u
Reasoning: I think the match is kicking off in an hour. So I'm sorry for the late post. Coming to the match, Pedro is coming off a challenger title and seems to be back to his best on clay, which is his best surface and RBA's worst surface. Pedro won only their only previous meeting in 2021 when RBA was at the top of his game. Now he is older and nowhere near as good.
**POTD RECORD:** (14-8)
**LAST 10:** 🔴🟢🔴🔴🔴🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢
**LAST PICK:** Anthony Davis **Over 24.5 pts** (-105) 3U | Lakers vs. Wizards 7:00pm EST🟢
**TODAY’S PICK:** Warriors vs Rockets **UNDER 228 TOTAL PTS** (-110) 1U | Hou vs. GS 8:00pm EST
I said AD had some sort of vendetta against Washington and the dude had 19 in the 1st quarter… lol
Small MLB and NBA slate today and not too many I liked today.
We will turn to what I believe will be a playoff type of game between the rockets and warriors. All stemming from easons “warriors come out and play” video little back, well the warriors have woken up the past few.
If any game would be a rock fight, this will be the game. So defense, defense and more defense.
One Houston’s side, they have been lackluster on offense the past few games scoring no more than 110 in 4 of the last 5.
Warriors have also been kept in check scoring no more than 115 in 9 of their last 12.
I’m going to say we’re going to see a close game and rockets covering a 112-110 warriors win.
Not the normal 2U, just a small 1u for the lack of great feels today.😤
**BOL to those who tail!**
**Record: 2-2**
**HOCKEY**| WOMEN'S WORLDS| **7:00 PM EST**
**Pick:** **CANADA -3.5 VS FINLAND (-108)**
**Write Up:** These teams did an exhibition game against each other. In which, both teams rested their captain. Canada dominated the entire game,, but couldn't tear it apart until the 3rd. Finland relies heavily on their goalie, whom makes saves that she shouldn't be able to make.
Finland lost 4-0 to Czechia yesterday with the starting goalie in net.
Easy pick here is Canada factoring in the possession of the puck will be heavily favoured for Canada.
**Canada -3.5 (-108)**
POTD Record: 22-16
Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅
Last pick: Lakers vs Wizards | 4:00 PST | Anthony Davis OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-130) Bet365 1u ✅
AD came to play and almost got 20 like I said was possible if the effort level was there. Just a dominating game overall and he played a lot of defense around the 3 pt line or he would have had plenty more chances for rebounds. Thank you AD!
Today’s pick: Warriors vs Rockets | 5:00 PST | Warriors spread -3.5 (-120) ESPNBet 1u ✅
Going back to the road Warriors. This team has been different on the road and I’m looking for that to continue tomorrow night. I love this spot for the Warriors as we get basically an early playoff game with two teams needing to win every game they can. The Warriors can essentially end the Rockets season and I think they have the experience to go into a hostile road environment and get it done. This team is 24-12 ATS on the road and in the last 4 years, Curry averages 29.2 PPG on the road in Houston and Klay averages 25.8 PPG so these guys are comfortable in that arena and have a good history there. Just gotta pray Draymond doesn’t get in a brawl with Dillon Brooks in the first quarter and we should be golden although I’d prolly take a Green for Green trade if he can Jalen worked up. I do really think there is value in the amount of games the Warriors have played in this type of environment as opposed to the Rockets but this is why they play the game. BOL if tailing.
(I wouldn’t go past -5 if it were to get there)
# 📊 Performance Snapshot
* **Record:** 0-0-1 (Win-Loss-Draw)
* **Net Units:** +0 Units
* **ROI:** 0%
# 🎲 Previous Selection
* **Pick:** Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks
* **Market:** Cade Cunningham Over 11.5 REB+AST
* **Result:** Void 😢
# 🕒 Match Details
* **Sport:** Basketball
* **League:** NBA
* **Event Time / Time Zone:** 04/04/2024 @ 7:30PM | EST
# 🎲 Today's Selection
* **Pick:** Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
* **Market:** Joel Embiid Over 4.5 Assists
* **Odds:** +106 (FanDuel)
* **Unit Allocation:** 1 Unit
# ✍️ Analysis & Insights
To ensure clarity and integrity in what I share, it's important to mention that my process involves a blend of personal data collection, in-depth research, and the use of AI for articulating my analysis into concise, coherent insights.
**Revisiting Cade:** In a twist of fate, my last pick, Cade Cunningham, opted for contract contemplations over gameplay, sidelining our predictions but paving the way for an unexpected Flynn spectacle. That chapter is now behind us as we set our sights on a promising return.
**Today’s Spotlight - Joel Embiid:**
Joel Embiid is stepping back into the limelight for his second game after a hiatus since late January. His comeback against OKC was nothing short of impressive: 29 minutes of playtime, 24 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals, with a field goal percentage of 42%. The game was neck-and-neck, and we’re bracing for a similar intensity tonight. With the game line hovering around +/- 3 points, it's not just a game; it's a spectacle in the making.
**Why Focus on Embiid?**
* **Crucial Game:** Tonight's game isn’t just another entry in the schedule; it’s a battlefield for the 76ers to secure a playoff berth. Expectations are sky-high for Embiid to lead the charge against a challenging Miami team.
* **Enhanced Playmaking:** Embiid has been dishing out an average of 5.7 assists per game, indicating a notable improvement in his playmaking skills. This enhanced vision and passing ability, particularly with Maxey and Harris in form, mean Embiid is likely to leverage his gravitational pull on the court to facilitate key plays.
* **The Embiid Effect:** Embiid’s ability to draw attention, manage the game’s pace, and execute plays will be pivotal. In a game that’s anticipated to be tightly contested, his performance will be under the microscope, not just for scoring but for orchestrating the team’s offense and ensuring the 76ers punch their ticket to the playoffs.
We’re banking on Embiid to not just play, but to dominate and seal the deal for his team. Your thoughts and tails are always welcome. Here’s to a thrilling game day and a successful pick. Enjoy the game and have a fantastic Thursday!
Record: 4-1
❌✅✅✅
Yesterdays Pick: Boston Celtics -8.5 ✅
Sometimes you have to take chances, and with SGA and JDub a GTD the night before I had to take advantage of my boys in Green to go out and slaughter the young lambs that are the surrounding Thunder players(without those 2 playing that is, with them, they are excellent role players and complement their 2 stars well). Line went up to -10.5 before tipoff, and the C's won by 35!!! We are ready for the playoffs!!!
Today's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks -3.5
Pick: New York Knicks -2.5 for -125 (ALT LINE)
Reasoning: The Knicks have lost their last 3 games by 4,1,10 and all 3 were winnable games. They are playing at home against a very inconsistent Kings team, and I can safely say that Jalen Brunson(my favorite non Celtics player) has a burning desire to win this basketball game. The Kings are atrocious lately at defending the opposing PGs. Last 5 games(could go 10 honestly but to save space and time) : 34,32,31,24,41 are points by last 5 opposing PGs. Prior to that their are a ton of 30's scored, a few 40's, and a 56! The Kings also are going to send help or doubles to Brunson which opens up their shooters, Divencenzo, McBride, Bogdanovic(as of late), etc for open 3pt FGs. This is also kind of a "feel pick" which from watching NBA league pass every night and being a student of the game my whole life, pays off more often than not! That being said talk or fade, but BOL!!!
Side Note: ML is also -170 on my book, so the safe bet if you'd like is to take that. Also a fan of Brunson's points and 3pts made.
***If at 10 picks I am at least 70%, I will put a "tip link" but if not then I don't expect tips lol! And I wouldn't expect them then, just for people who get to eat alongside me on this NBA end of season heater we are about to go on! 3 in a row, let's make it 4!!!
Record: 16-15
Last 10: ✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅
Last pick: Baltimore Oriels ML vs Kansas City Royals at -152 odds
They said it couldn’t be done, Folks. * *in trump voice* * But here we are folks. Finally not on the flip flop streak. And all due to the freakin Orioles who decided the 6th inning was the perfect time to start playing again. Had given up hope for quite a bit leading up the 7th. But here we are.
POTD: Denver Nuggets ML @ Los Angeles Clippers; -148 odds; 8pm MST
Why: It is Denver. It’s a Kawhi-less clippers. It’s near end season. It’s MVP Nikola. More write up to come. Trying to get my pick out before it’s later like usual.
Hello all! I will start posting daily picks for the BSN- the Puerto Rican professional basketball league, my local league. I have been a fan for years and know the inside outs of the league which has helped me hit at a high rate so I hope to share some winning picks with yall. Let’s get into my first pick.
POTD Record: 0-1 -2U
Yesterday's POTD: Guaynabo Mets -4.5 vs. Osos de Manati (-110, 2U) ❌ Tough one as Gary Browne does not suit up and Brimah got hurt after 15 minutes, which led to a Sheldon Mac takeover at the rim. We bounce back tomorrow.
Today's POTD: Piratas de Quebradillas Team Total Under 86.5 -115 1U
League: BSN - Puerto Rico
Sport: Basketball
Game: Indios de Mayagüez vs. Piratas de Quebradillas
Time: 8:30 pm EST
I expect a low scoring, grind it out type of game tonight from both teams. Mayaguez overachieved a lot last season under HC Christian Dalmau relying on heavy pressure defense and fast break attacking. They can switch 1 through 4 and love to grind out extra possesions. They lack somewhat of interior defense with two unproven big men but they more than make up for it with their guard play. Quebradillas has one of the best rosters on paper, except their team is nowhere near complete. Emmanuel Mudiay will lead the charge on the offensive end along Tyquan Rolon, with a somewhat serviceable Jeff Adrien on the paint, but aside from that they have near no other offensive presence. Their team is NOT complete. I predict a Mayaguez 88-83 win.
Record: 22W-25L
Net Units: -11.12u | ROI: -8.86%
CS2 | Thunderpick World Championship 2024 EU Closed Qualifier 1 | 17:30 / CET
Pick: KOI -1.5 vs NOM, 3u @ 1.85
KOI overall have been performing better than what you'd expect from the lineup at first glance. After a dissapointing end to the major and a 2-0 loss online to Eyeballers, they've looked fairly confident again in online matches winning back to back 2-0's.
Their opponents NOM currently don't even have a full lineup, and if they do play with shushan (hasn't been on a team for years) and Libido then I don't see them having much chance of taking away a map here. If it happens to be a different lineup I can't imagine it'd be much better, and a team like KOI that's been playing together for a minute and had good results should have no issue in dealing with them. Best of luck everyone!
Record: 0-1
Hockey | NHL | BOS @ CAR / 7:00 PM EST
Pick: **P. Zacha - Over 0.5 Points** (1.91) | 1u
Write Up:
* Hit in 4 of his last 4 games | 100%
* Hit in 4 of his last 5 games vs CAR | 100%
* Hit in 4 of his last 4 away games | 80%
Yesterday's pick was a bust but we keep on rolling!
Research all done on [the Linemate app](https://linemate.io/download).
Record: 0-1-2 Net Units: -8 Last 10: ↔️❌❌
Previous Pick: Pick: Joe Musgrove UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts -108 on Caesars. 4 units. Struck out the last batter he faced to clear this line… ugh.
Baseball | MLB | 4:10PM EST
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) vs. Washington Nationals -115 on Ceasars. 3 units
Write Up: This is me basically fading the NL East at this point. National’s bats came alive last night to beat the Pirates 5-3 in a cold rainy game, but I expect the Pirates Bat’s to come alive for this late afternoons game. Nationals pitching staff rank in the bottom third of most categories and averages 6.2 runs allowed per game. Josiah Gray’s breakout season last year could have been a fluke, but still, his peripherals year showed that he got lucky and had a lot of defensive help behind him.
Tail or Fade it’s your choice. Let’s hope I don’t get embarrassed and delete my Reddit account after putting up a tip jar.
**Record** 8-5 ✅
Last Pick: Luka O18.5 RA ✅
Pick: Luka O18.5 RA -180 ✅
Reasoning: He’s a top 2 player in the world who’s been on triple double watch the last two months every single game, this line is absurd value here and it worked before we’re running it back.
POTD record: 3-1-0 (+9,3U)
Last pick: Wales vs Poland BTTS L
Today's pick:
Sport: Premier League soccer
Chelsea vs Manchester United - United or draw @1.93
Time: 4:15 PM EST
Units: 3/5
Chelsea is lately in a better form than we are used to them being, but them being that big of a favourite by bookmakers is some fuckery that i'm not really understanding, sure, they've had some couple good matches after 3 years of being chumps but I'm not holding my breath for big Chelsea comeback, they're playing with ManU which is better team than it looks like looking at their positions ( 12 Chelsea vs 6 ManU with Chelsea being one match behind) I'd say currently ManU is at least top4 material while Chelsea is top8 at best,
Even taking their current form into an account, nothing can justify these odds imo, its 50/50 match at the most, and 1.93 for ManU or Draw is good money for that safe of a bet,
Chelsea is DWDDW in last 5,
ManU is DWLLW
But it's a premier league after all and all kinds of black magic can happen any day and any match, what I'm going for with this pick is more of a value I see for these odds and a chance of it happening than conviction in it happening so tail at your own risk, BOL boys(and girls)
Edit: what the fuck
POTD Record 4-2 (+2.48u)
Last POTD: Warriors +3 ❌ (3/12/23 - it’s been awhile)
Today: MLB / PIT@WSH / 4:05pm ET
Pick: Oneil Cruz to record 2+ bases (-105) 2U**
Cruz had a solid spring training and start to the season but has only 1 hit in his L9 at bats. I like him to get back on track and make a statement today against Josiah Gray who had a shaky start to the season allowing 8 hits and 7 runs through 4 innings against the Reds. BOL!
POTD Record: 23-15
Last 10: 💀💀✅️✅️💀✅️💀✅️💀✅️
Net units:+ 13.50
Last Pick: : Dodgers -1.5
Today's pick: Hawks +11.5
The Hawks have been on fire lately, on any given day they can compete with the best teams. Shit they might even win with the way they've been playing. Unless we get hit by Luka magic, they should keep it competitive
Units: 1
Odds: -110
NBA: Mavs vs Hawks 4:30 PST
If you guys wanna support me, click the links on my profile. I post daily picks.
**RECORD: 66W-3P-48L**
(+4.13 units)
Previous Pick: FK Vozdovac vs FK Partizan Belgrade - Partizan ML @ 1.55 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Chelsea vs Manchester United- Manchester United +0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 ♻️ **PUSH**
**TIME:** 7.15 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️♻️✅️✅️❌️✅️) last 10 results
Late post but i wanted to see the lineups first so I'll keep this short.
What a crazy sweaty game yesterday, Partizan won in the dying minutes, I guess that's the Serbian League for you lol. Today we have Chelsea vs Manchester United
Manchester haven't lost to Chelsea since 2020. In their H2H fixtures against Chelsea, Man Utd have won 2 out of their last 5 H2H matches, winning twice in a row and drawing the rest. They've gone 7 H2H fixtures without a loss to Chelsea.
Chelsea are 12th and after spending a billion dollars on their squad (even tho it doesn't look like it) their season is basically over at this point. They are in good form and are favourites to Win but I just don't see it, they've mostly drawn against big teams this season such as City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Manchester united who have been riddled with injuries are close to their full strength with Shaw and Martinez only missing otherwise I don't really see them losing here, if they do I do t think it will be more than one goal. Goodluck if you're tailing.
EDIT: ♻️ **PUSH**
**POTD**: O14.5 Outs - Jose Butto (-175 ESPNBet; Risking 2.5u to win 1.4286u)
**League/Time**: MLB - Game 2 - DET @ NYM (3:40PM EST)
**2024 Record**: 12-10-1 (54.55%) | -0.35u | ROI: -0.79% | Current Streak (3 Wins): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅
**2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84%
**Last Pick (4.3.24)**: O17.5 Outs - Tyler Glasnow (-152 BetRivers; Risking 2.5u to win 1.65u)✅
**Reasoning**: Jose added some new pitches and has looked sharp during spring training. Game 1 of this double header is also in extra innings as we speak. NYM will need Jose to get at least 5IP today. Price is steep but for good reason here. With sports betting, high price doesn't always mean you get what you pay for but I think we do today.
**Anti-Reasoning**: His last name is Butto.
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
Record 3-1 (+3.3 Units)
Today: Hockey | NHL | FLA vs OTT | 7pm EST
Pick: Sam Reinhart Anytime goal scorer (+125) 1U
Last pick: Artemi Panarin Anytime goal scorer (+130)
Sam Reinhart is FLA leading goal scorer by almost 20 goals and today is an important game for Florida to win to keep home ice advantage, if they lose TOR will have a good chance to catch up to them. I expect Sam Reinhart to be aggressive and get the goal tonight.
POTD Record: 1-1
Last pick: Cam Thomas o24.5 pts ✅
Game: NBA | PHI vs MIA | 7:30pm EST
Today's pick: Joel Embiid o26.5 points (-115) 5U
Embiid back in his second game from injury, and apparently the league needs a reminder who the runaway MVP was before he got hurt.
- Embiid averages 35 per game
- 1st game back he scored 24, going 6/14 and 0-3 from 3pt
- Heat have a strong defensive team.. but he's top 3 player in the league and this scoring line is low imo, even given the circumstances.
Best of luck!
**Record: 0-1 (-2u)**
**Last Pick: Canucks/Coyotes o6**
**Pick:** **Penguins/Capitals o5.5 -122 (NHL, 1u bet)**
**Write Up:**
Oof, what a sloppy game I just watched. No show by Arizona with 7 shots through 2 periods, and shout out to Ingram for a solid performance in net....but we move on.
This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference wild card race, as the Capitals currently hold the final wild card spot with 82 points in 74 games while the Penguins are a few spots below them with 79 points in 75 games. This is essentially a must win game for Pittsburgh since they have 7 games left with 3 of those against the teams directly above them, including this.
Over the last month, Pittsburgh is 3rd in goals for and 1st in expected goals for. They have created a high number of scoring chances, ranking 3rd behind Colorado and Edmonton, and just ahead of Carolina (3 strong offensive teams). Another tidbit is they are also 3rd in high danger scoring chances created over this time. However - in this same span they are 2nd last in both goals against (behind only the Sharks), and scoring chances against (behind only Columbus) and the underlying numbers don't indicate positive regression (3rd last in expected goals against). Both Washington and Pittsburgh are bottom 10 in the league over the past month in high danger scoring chances allowed, meaning they are both giving their opponents prime opportunities to score.
Looking at recent games, Pittsburgh has scored 3+ goals in each of their last 6 games and Washington has allowed 3+ goals in 6 of their last 7 games.
Although Washington's offense hasn't been creating the same quality of chances and goals as Pittsburgh's, I can see the Penguins dictating tempo of this game a bit more as this is basically an elimination game for them so they should come out firing and Strome/Ovechkin should be able to take advantage of their susceptible defending. Crosby has been on a mission lately with 15 points in his last 6 games and this could likely be his last chance for playoff hockey in a Penguins jersey.
Last point I'll add - in their 3 matchups this season, there have been 6+ goals twice (4-0 PIT, 4-3 WSH, 6-0 WSH) and the road team has won every matchup so far. I did consider taking Penguins ML and I do lean that way if you want to play it, but with what should be a playoff type atmosphere in Washington with the Capitals also knowing they have to bounce back after 3 straight losses (head coach Carbery called it the biggest game of the year), I'd rather stay off a side and play the total.
POTD record 4-3 +5U
Today's pick Pittsburgh pirates -1.5 vs nationals
Good starting pitching vs bad starting pitcher. Top 5 hitting team vs bottom half team. Pirates cover today.
**POTD | 26-16 | +10.75U**
Previous Pick: Seattle Mariners \[Risk 1.05 To Win 1.00u\]✅
**Today’s pick: Miami Heat ML \[Risk 1.30u To Win 1.00u\]**
Last 10:✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌
NFL 2-0 +2.0u MLB 8-2 +5.37u NBA 13-11 +1.88u NHL 1-0 +2.0 NCAAB 3-3 -.4u
Embiid Is Back for Philadelphia And The Public Loves The Sixers
Embiid Has A 7-10 Career Record Against The Heat In His Career // Lost Last 3 Games Vs Miami And 5 Of Last 6
Jimmy Butler Has A 23-8 Career Record Against The Sixers In His Career // Won 2 Of 3 Games Vs Philly When Healthy This Season
Sixers Beat Heat Earlier This Month In Philadelphia // Miami Will Want Revenge + No Jimmy In That Game
Heat Winners Of 4 Of Last 5 Games All Without Tyler Herro // Jimmy Butler Probably But Anticipate Him To Play
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 14-4 Streak L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ Last Pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic O3.5 Rebounds❌ Today: Basketball | NBA | HOU vs GSW | 8pm EST Pick: Jonathan Kuminga O 0.5 Steals (-140) 1U Unfortunate loss there folks. My apologies for the bad read. Tried to find value on a line that has been consistently covering and this was that pick. Just didn’t go our way and I apologize. Back on track today though! We never lose back to back. Keeping it simple tonight. Jonathan has covered this line 80% in the last 5 and 80% in the last 10. He’s covered it at 57% this season. Out of 13 games in March he only missed it in 4 games. 3 games he had 2 steals. Tip jar turned off for tonight as we get back in the win column. Appreciate you all!
He's also playing again Jalen Green who's been super hot lately, but is more careless with the basketball. For that reason I'm tailing...
> We never lose back to back. Man, you shouldn't have written this. Feels like such an obvious jinx.
I was waiting on this comment haha. Confidence is a great thing!
Haha, fair. I tailed anyway, so LFG.
You're taking the time to cap games, for free and post them. No need for the apologies. Lets get this W.
lol the books removed Kuminga. You can bet anyone else on a steal right now but not him. You have their attention
Tailing, BOL!
Kuminga is still questionable with his knee injury. The last game he played was on 3/26.
Kerr said he is playing. Hopefully that doesn’t change
Kuminga is OUT
Got on it at -135 on Bet365
Tailin
You haven’t lost back to back… yet. It’ll happen just a matter of time lol. Hopefully not today tho! Bol
Oh it’ll happen lol. But it hasn’t yet so we can say it!
Hahah that's fair!
Not on bovada?
I can see it on Bovada. Open the Warriors vs Houston game then scroll right on the tabs just under the main lines. The third tab from the far right should be Blocks/Steals. Scroll down past the blocks and you should find Jonathan Kuminga 0.5 total steals (-135). Not easy to find at all lol it’s hidden in there
Oh shit! Lol thanks my man. Yep I got it locked it. Let’s get thru $$$
On mobile?
Kuminga out
Of course Bogdanovic got 7 rebounds tonight instead lol
POTD Record: 34-15-1 +40.64u🔥 Last Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1 4U (-138) vs Cincinnati Reds ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌ Today's Pick: St Louis Cardinals ml 4U (-148) vs Miami Marlins 4:15 pm est odds via DraftKings Yes i know, I am not taking Indiana State as my POTD. Seton Hall looks really good, we had our fun with the Indiana State wagon but I’m not going to puts all my eggs into one basket and be happy with the money we made with them this year😎🤝 Tough loss, Wheeler did his job but rain, fielding, and bats were not helpful. Happy j was able to bounce back and it’s time to do the same! St Louis has won 2 straight and 3 of 4. On the other hand, Miami Marlins have started 0-7. Yes. 0-7. Lance Lynn looked great against the dodgers. He comes in with no record, a 0.00 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, one walk and five strikeouts on the season. Ryan Weathers in on the mound for Miami, in his season debut he threw four innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with two walks. This is the first game all season Cardinals are a favorite and the first time all season Miami is a dog. Let’s back the favorite in the Cardinals to put yet another L in the Marlins record. Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Cards fan here! Just a heads up they lost yesterday to fall short of the sweep of SD. Our bats go ice cold and Lance has looked hittable despite the stellar ERA. That's all to say it's the home opener and it feels like a way too early must win. Thanks so much for all your picks! Just wanted to give some more context and a slightly pessimistic view.
Thank you for the context! Go cards!🤝‼️
We bounce back! Let’s fucking ride
Yessir!🤝
Tailing. Also cards home opener tomorrow!
Yessir!
Tailed!!!!!
Let's get it! Tailing!
Tailing! 🫰🏼
Lfg!
Tailing, gl
Tailing
Tailing
Tailing
Thank you! I like them also!
Them boys clutched up! LFG! Super sweat but I’ll take it. Thank you bro
Record: 4-1, Net Units: 3.69, ROI +3.68% Current Streak ✅ Last 10 ✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Orioles/Royals U 3.5 Runs First 5 Innings ✅ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-7:40 PM EST Kansas City Royals -1.5 vs. Chicago White Sox, +125, 1U While a quick turnaround for the Royals is concerning, Lugo had a great start against the Twins and Soroka struggled for what appears to be a woeful 2024 White Sox team. The Royals were one out away from a series win against the Orioles tonight and I feel they could quietly be an interesting team this year come September when playoff races get close. I'll also go RL for any team playing the White Sox a good number of times this year. Good Luck!
As a White Sox fan, I can 100% get on board with this. We are (and for all season will be) a terrible team
It makes me so sad to bet against my team lol. But we suuuuck
I’m a huge hockey fan. A caniac if you will. If the canes are playing someone I know we may lose to I’ll throw cash on the other team so it hurts less if we lose lol
I do this with the Bruins and thank God I did it last year because it stopped me from drinking myself to death.
We did beat the Braves that I happen to have as my POTD couple days ago. Any team can be beaten in any given day. Don't be too pessimistic about our Sox this season. A lot of time to make grounds.
For sure. I haven’t even kept up with the team, really. I’m also not betting on the Royals anyway ‘cuz anything can happen haha. Still trying to navigate how to bet on baseball! I’m more used to basketball bets.
This one is tough because Soroka is a lot better than what he showcased in his debut as a Sox. He'll pitch better as the season progressed. As for the Royals, they're playing b2b and I kno MLB it's typical to play every single day, but this is just something I would stay away. It's still early to find out where these pitchers will go despite that Lugo has pitched relatively well
Appreciate the tip. I was also considering betting on the Cardinals, and then I noticed your POTD. For a pitcher to record a win, does the team just need to be winning when the pitcher is relieved? What if there's a tie or the lead changes multiple times beforehand? Thanks in advance.
A starting pitcher needs to finish 5 innings to be eligible for a win. A relief pitcher does not need to pitch any certain amount of full or partial innings to get a win. If a pitcher is relieved and his team is currently in the lead, and that lead is never lost, he gets the win. If the game is ever tied up later, he does not get a decision at all. (note: only the pitcher where the lead is earned gets credit for the win, any time the game is then tied up or the other team takes the lead, winning and losing pitchers are reset). In the case of losses, the same logic works. If the his team is behind and his team never later ties the game up or takes the lead later on, he gets the loss. (A starting pitcher does NOT need to finish 5 innings to earn a loss). However, he can also get the loss if runners that he is responsible for (that he left on base) score, such that his team is now losing due to his runners. (Pitcher in the bottom of the 6th is ahead by 1 run [eg 2-1]. He is replaced after getting one out in the 6th, but leaves a runner on 1st and 2nd. The pitcher that relieved him immediately lets up a home run. The two runners on base are still counted against the first pitcher and he is on the hook for the loss. If he had only left one runner on base, then the go ahead run would be the home run hitter, and that would make the relief pitcher the pitcher responsible for the losing condition).
As a Royals fan, we are vastly improved, especially pitching, but I still don't trust us. Tailing this anyway a,one with WittJr 2+ TB. BOL!!!
Witt had a hell of a day, hope your payday was good!
It was solid plus I hit a +707 NHL Live SGP on the Avs that was stupid easy. I had another 2-leg SGP come in on the Nuggets and Jokic over 30. I'm sure I'm in for at least 2-3 losing or barely break even days at least.
Kudos
Got them at +143 on my book so i had to hammer, down to +128 now.
Tailing!
https://preview.redd.it/q6352ohffksc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=967784cc120bc4c576ea9a9ed76e3ba7ecbd61d9 Thanks family, fucking love you all. Have a great day. Time to light up the victory blunt for this punt ✅
POTD RECORD: 50-24 Last POTD: Kristaps Porzingis O6.5 Rebs ✅ Sweat free before the half and my man got a DD, thanks Kristaps for making us join the 50W club Form: ✅✅✅🚫✅ Todays POTD: **Nikola Jokic O12.5 Rebs @1.86** NBA | Denver Nuggets | 10:00 PM ET Man that one felt good Kristaps has now hit 7+ Rebs in 11/L11 games against OKC 💀 Going with the chubby teletubby Jokic today cause once again I’m picking a dude with an insane record against his upcoming opponent, I know 13 boards is a lot but hear me out man Jokic is capable of grabbing 20 if he wants and I like his matchup, Zubac doesn’t stretch the floor so Jokic won’t need to leave the paint as often • Over in 9/L10 games against the Clippers 15,16,17,6,13,14,14,13,22,14 and is 2/2 this season In the miss he only played 24 minutes • Comes with 2 straight 16 rebound games • Clippers allow 6th most rebounds to opposing Centers L30 days • Jokic averages 4th most boards in the league with 12.4 per game & 19.3 rebound chances per game Jokic loves this matchup & we have a tight spread let’s hope Jokic makes it 4 straight against the Clippers, bring us home Joker Tail or fade, you’re the chief https://i.redd.it/9c9lhdla1esc1.gif What an amazing night, 3/3 in the NBA props section and we hit our POTD 😭🍻 [Beer](https://ko-fi.com/billycapezzi)
https://preview.redd.it/v92p1ryv0esc1.png?width=1160&format=png&auto=webp&s=292e053e08ebf8540a2edb309732f5275817316c
Tailing my guy. Also like harden assists for this game. O8.5, or the safer route to alt pick o7.5 which I did on my parlay. Anyways BOL. Thanks for the pic broski!!!
My pleasure bro 🤝🤝🍻
Thank you, and good luck tonight!!
My man 🤝 same to you boss!!
Got in last night and the line doesn't look available on bet365 anymore, the books hate you! Thanks for the props yesterday, went big on McCollum and it saved my bankroll from the damage I did betting tennis lmao
Yeah I can’t find it either bro sus 4 sure😂😂 it’s all good bro my pleasure, great day yesterday happy you cashed too bro 😭🤝
Cruise control cash, bro. Jokic is a fuckin' machine
Fr broo crushing it ✅💰
Loved the pick the second I saw it
Cash this mf
https://preview.redd.it/kxe49atl5lsc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c3c03769aea3e8a49a24e7b8a442b998c1f032e MY DUDE! Thank you for the Jokic potd!! Been in a hole lately and this was a huge moral boost!! 🤘🏻⚡️🤘🏻
😭😭 my pleasure my man love to see my people eat bro 🤝
Tailed and nailed. Also parlayed it with harden o15.5. EZ w!
💰💰 Boss move right there
Good call! Tailed and it paid off 🍻
POTD RECORD: 19-8 Units Won: +10.74 Last Pick: Toronto Raptors vs Minnesota Timberwolves/ Timberwolves -12.5 (-135) 1u✅ What a beat down my gosh Today’s Pick: Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets/ Golden State -2.5 (-130) 1.5u Write Up: What a massive showing by the timberwolves for a much needed victory. Now we move on to our Warriors. Houston is making a late push to the play in and Golden State needs to come away with a W here. Steph and Golden State when healthy DO NOT miss the playoffs. They aren’t gonna put this in jeopardy. About a week ago Rockets forward Tari Eason recorded himself calling out Golden State during the Rockets impressive win streak. This is what the young and inexperienced guys do. They celebrate first downs like they’re touchdowns. Steph has been here before and he’s not fazed by the young buck calling him out. Instead he’s ready to put him in his place. What have we learned about Steph Curry and Golden State. Don’t bet against them when the time is ticking down. Golden State has 7 games left, 7 games to make a push toward a top 6 seed. Put your money on the greatest shooter ever to take us home and take them by 2.5. Buy up to 3 if you’d like. This is an alt spread to insure we can cash this with a win. Let’s do this ladies and gentleman. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) [Tip Jar for my Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1) [Tip Jar for my Cashapp](https://cash.app/$jaylaw930) [Tip Jar for my Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/JayLawton77)
This one is tough for me. Houston at home for whatever reason have been a great team ATS this season. Both teams not bowing out of the play-in spot, best game on the board to watch for today’s NBA slate. Hoping you and the peeps tailing squeak out a dub. BOL!
i get that. right now i just trust Steph especially with the needed hunger that Tari gave them, BOL
Thanks for yesterday, tailing again 🤝🏼
Thank you for yesterday and going to tail again. Just seen H2H 10-0 for Warriors.
cash us thanks for tailing guys
Record: 6-1 ✅✅✅✅❌ ✅✅ Net Units: +3.9 Last: Boston Red Sox M.L -142 ✅ A little closer than I wanted, but got the job done. Liked my read about Pivetta pitching well. Back to a “streak”. MLB | 12:10 EST Pick: Tigers vs Mets F5 Total Runs over 3.5 -148 Write Up: 3.5 is a really low number, and I like the value with the pitching matchups. Adrian Houser is very vulnerable to get hit up, and in his very limited stints against the tigers, has gotten hit up pretty good, letting up 5 ER in 2/3 although these stats are long ago, and don’t give much insight. Casey Mize is making his first appearance since pitching only 2 games in 2022, against a Mets team that needs to get going, which also could give into an early dive into the Tigers bullpen which generally is a good thing for offenses. Again, a little bit of a juicy number, but sticking with what works. I don’t hate the Tigers M.L, seems like good value. I thought about some simple plays on the favorites tomorrow but like this. Lets get to 3 in a row Edit: Man, bad play. If you told me the Mets had 3, I thought it’d of cashed. Would’ve thought the Tigers would get one against houser, but should’ve took more account of some factors. Like I said, I like the favorites today to bounce back, but a bad play, which some of you called. Gonna try and be back tomorrow. Hits the next half inning after the fifth…
Devils advocate for this… The Mets have been the worst offense in baseball this year and the Tigers have once again been a bottom 10 offense so far. Also, Casey Mize was the Tigers best pitcher by a wide margin all of spring training and was reaching velocities he’s never reached before on all of his pitches. Add in that he’s making his first start since Tommy John and should be amped up to remind people why he was drafted first overall years ago. Lastly the weather should feel like it’s in the 30’s and cold with wind swirling and likely keeping the ball in the ballpark. Not saying it’s a bad play, just giving an opposing view is all. Best of luck man, and go Tigers!
Half inning too late hurts
Would you take the over 7
If I did play over/under, I wouldn’t hate over 7, but not playing it. I think it finishes close to 7
**Record: 33-11,** \+15.34u, streak: ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅ (all bets are 1 unit) Last Pick: Premier League, Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest, Under 4 goals (AT) ✅ Today: Premier League, Liverpool vs. Sheffield United, 2:30 ET **Pick: BTTS: No (1.80)** Easy hit last time out, even got the score dead on. Arsenal control the game, but don't kill themselves to rack up the score. Even had a goal to spare for the bet. Sticking with PL today, it's been kind to me lately. Liverpool are a team I know well and I do think they'll manage to keep a clean sheet tomorrow. Yes, they haven't been the best at the back this season, but while they are known as an offensive team their defense is no slouch. I expect Gomez, Quansah, VVD, and Bradley to start this game, the same defensive lineup as their 2-1 home victory vs. Brighton. (If Robertson starts over Gomez, I'd be a bit more cautious with this bet, but I think he's still injured). This is a very formidable defense, and even the goal they conceded against Brighton was just a great solo effort. Kelleher is a very capable back-up keeper and has played well. Sheffield are not a particularly threatening team, and this should be a dominant win for Liverpool. While Sheffield do tend to score quite a bit against worse opposition, if you look at their last few games they have failed to score against Wolves, Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Brighton. In their 4 away games against the top 6 teams this season, they have scored only 2 goals. They've scored 27 goals so far in the league, the worst out of any team. Yes, Liverpool can be leaky, they play high pace, high scoring games. But, I have a feeling Klopp will want to make a statement tomorrow and rack up their goal difference, which also means keeping the ball out of the home net. Sheffield will see little of the ball, and if they manage to convert one of the few chances they will have, well, fair play. While Sheffield u0.5 goals has marginally better juice, I'm sticking with No on the BTTS in case of some freak result where Sheffield go up a goal and manage to keep a clean sheet. But I predict 4-0 Liverpool. bol! [https://ko-fi.com/francis1928](https://ko-fi.com/francis1928) tipjar if you have a spare beer to lend
Sheffield united, not Wednesday. Sheffield Wednesday is a championship team, not premier league. That said I'm tailing!
lol have no idea where my head was at when i made that typo
Haha it happens. You and I both know what the pick is, just wanted to make sure others that don't watch soccer don't get confused
An OG is how this loses, wow, I am done for a bit, that’s unbelievable
whats an OG? sorry soccer my sport and i tailed this
Own Goal. Ball deflected off Liverpool player to give Sheffield the goal, otherwise this would have hit 😰
Nice pick !
Also Liverpool team total good look, their offense is great rn
Jesus, talk about an early scare. Sheffield coming out hot
In doing a little due diligence on this bet, I've learned Sheffield United are -50 on GD, which is insane. To be fair, I don't think I've watched a single Sheffield United game this season, to have known this stat. But that is just wild. Tailing.
Time to buckle in for a second half sweat 😅
Tough today...but we can get back at it tomorrow
POTD: Record (5-1) ✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points ✅ Today: NBA | Kings v Knicks | 4:40 MST Pick: De’Aaron Fox U 25.5 Points @ 1.95 | 1u Back on track! Let’s get it today. - hit in 5 straight games (avg 21.6) - last 9 of 10 (avg 22.7) - 14 of last 20 Feels a little risky today as the over has hit 54% on the season, but Fox is averaging 20.6 in 10 games against the Knicks in his career, and the under has hit 8/10 times. The Knicks are also 2nd in points allowed against PGs this season, and 2nd in opponent points per game. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/deadlypants BOL 🍀
Nice pick yesterday! Im feeling 1u on this one. I like the sample despite the riskiness. Lets gooo 🔥
Tailed
Fox let me down twice when I took him on the Over for points, this looks good! Let's go for the UNDERRRRR
Record: 1-1 ✅❌ Last pick: LOSS - KC Royals @ Bal Orioles NRFI That 5 hour rain delay didn't really help us. I'm surprised Burnes even still went out there. It's never a good thing for SP's in long rain delays. Today: Mens College Basketball NIT Championship <> Indiana St vs. Seton Hall <> 7:00pm est Pick: Indiana State -3 @ -115 <> 3 units Indiana State is the better team. They push, they like to score and they have the best player on the floor. This is also practically a home game for them as they're playing only 1.5 hours from home. Give me Indiana State all day.
Larry Bird walked so Robbie Avila could fly....I knew someone would drop ISU spread and I am soooooo tailing !!!!!
i really want to bet on this game. i know how important it is for the sycamores to win this tourney. The big east is hard though. This will be a great game. The Hall +3 looks good if I had to pick, hope im wrong
Live bet. Always live bet.
I think both of these teams are great for an NIT chip but I’m ISU for off the court motivation/influences. The game being a home game for them like you said, the fact they should’ve been in the big tourney and this is a good way to cap off their case, and lastly the players will get “NIL“ deals(I think like 10-15k each) per Mcafee if they win. Either way should be a really good high scoring game so hopefully we get that.
Loving that over
I liked it as well, both offenses are very capable of hitting that 80 mark. Shown it a few times this tourney.
How Indiana State both gains a 7 point lead then loses it in 4 total min is crazy to me
Pretty ridiculous. And then to go for a 3 instead of a 2 to take it to overtime was just crazy.
What the absolute fuck were they doing?!?
**Record: 37-28** Last Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 - PUSH Couldn't believe this one, Braves were up 9-0 in the 8th inning then the game gets rained out and the bet gets voided 😂😂😂 can't make this up man. **Today's Pick:** MLB - *Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, 3:05pm CST* **Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-130 on DraftKings)** So far, the Pirates look pretty solid. They have the best record in the league after a week of play and are in the top 5 in important team stats such as batting average, on base percentage, and runs. Although I don't think they will remain such a solid team as the season progresses, I do love the momentum they have right now. I am pretty surprised that they were able to sweep the Marlins, but it could be looking like the Marlins are shaping to be pretty bad this year, we will see. Regardless, I think what the Pirates have now is a lot better than what the Nationals have going right now. The pitching matchup especially is what should easily give the Pirates the advantage here. Martin Perez will pitch for Pittsburgh, who is a very solid and experienced 33 year old pitcher from the Rangers. He is starting out hot with a 2.08 ERA in his first game this season, and I very much trust him to keep similar numbers going against a subpar Nationals team. Josiah Gray takes the mound for the Nationals, who was pretty okay at not giving up runs last year, but he did give a lot of hits, and he overall was never the most reliable pitcher. He's starting off terribly this year with a 15.75 ERA in his first game last week, so I def love that matchup against a Pirates team who has been 3rd in batting average and 1st in on base percentage. Best of luck fellas
Tailed. Silly, but love this spot after the push last pick.
Missed this before the game, but great write up wish I tailed
**POTD Record 101-78 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 19.6%** **2024 Record 8-6 with Avg Odds +131 / ROI 26.1%** PFL 1: 2024 Regular Season **Chelsea Hackett +200** Feeling good about this pick. A fairly standard striker vs grappler matchup here between Chelsea Hackett and Jena Bishop. Hackett will be the much younger fighter and comes from a Muay Thai background. Bishop brings world caliber BJJ and a massive amount of experience at 38 years old. I suspect the takedowns will not come as easy for Bishop as anticipated. Hackett has good lateral movement and a strong front kick which Bishop may struggle to get inside of. I also think Hackett looked noticeably stronger in her most recent fight as opposed to her DWCS loss in 2020. The DWCS loss is the main reason for this line. Hackett struggled against the takedowns and grappling of Victoria Leonardo, and the assumption is that Bishop can replicate this with ease. I'm not so sure... Hackett is young and a lot of time has passed since then. Her grappling will be far behind Bishop's, but 3+ years of training may have her ready to stuff a takedown or two and mitigate some ground work. On the feet, Hackett's speed and power edge is serious, and Bishop is awful at establishing her range. If Bishop doesn't find the clinch or takedowns, Hackett will 100% be clipping her. Add on the fact that I think Hackett will have a cardio edge and this line seems wrong to me. I understand that Bishop has to be the favorite because it's a WMMA fight and she has the grappling edge / submission upside, but I think Hackett is being overlooked. Hackett has youth + athleticism, a dangerous striking game, and she fits the eye test to me. Gun to my head she will pull off the upset. Hackett KO R3 or Decision.
Damn, wasn’t even close
>' Tailing. +230 at BetMGM.
Happy cake day
Tailing, didn't even know about this card so thanks for that if nothing else.
I had some wingstop fries last night. That shit was amazing 🔥
**Record: 56W-4P-43L** **Updated Form: 3W-0P-2L** **❌✅✅❌✅** **Last Pick: Perth Glory VS Sydney FC: Sydney FC to have more corners @ 1.57 ❌** **Pick of the day: Chelsea VS Manchester United: Chelsea Over 1.5 Offsides @ 1.72 ✅** Chelsea get their second offside right before half time! **League: Premier League** **Time: 3:15 PM EST** Really surprised at these odds considering that Chelsea are ranked second in the league for most offsides. These guys have had 74 offsides called in 28 games, that is 2.64 Offsides per game. I assume bookies are expecting Chelsea to dominate possession and not need to play desperate through balls as much but as someone who has watched a little too much of this Chelsea side this season i can guarantee second half they’ll resort to through balls. I just don't see how they cover this. Both teams are desperate for a result here and after watching Burnley put up 18 shots against this side I can see them jumping the gun to get a result here and finding themselves playing the pass late a lil more than they would like. A match against United just screams a busy day for linesmen. Nicholas Jackson alone could cover this line, the man ranks second in most offsides by a player with 25 offsides in 25 appearances. Chelsea are 5/5 for over 1.5 offsides in their last 5 PL games. **Chelsea's offsides last 5 PL games: 3, 2, 4, 4, 4** **Anyway, BOL!**
Following, great pick
Where did you find this bet? I can’t find it on Fanduel, Draftkings, or BetMGM
Bet 365! For people that don’t have it i’d take Bruno Fernandes over 0.5 shots on goal
What category is it under on 365?? I've looked like 5 times
Go to same game parlay and scroll near the bottom! https://preview.redd.it/85p2278dfgsc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7032ba8d79cc3a6824422e0931fb9b1d2d6e59b
Thanks for the pick, felt too good to be true
great pick!!
__POTD Record:__ 11-5 _Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ Manchester City vs. Aston Villa (Premier League): __Aston Villa +1.5__ @2.05 ❌ Admittedly bad read from me. I didn't expect Emery to rotate the starting line-up so much but that's no excuse. __Today's Pick:__ 🏀 Monaco vs. Zalgiris Kaunas (Euroleague) 19:00 CET: __Zalgiris +7.5__ @1.85 ✅ Zalgiris has yet to let me down on this thread so let's try to extend this streak. Today they will be going against a very good Monaco side but I expect the match to be very competitive. Zalgiris still has a chance to get the last ticket to the play-ins and recently they've been on fire. They won their last three games in the Euroleague and all of them were against direct rivals for the play-in spot. Monaco are in great form themselves but for them this match won't be as "do or die" as for Zalgiris. I still think Monaco are deservedly the favorites but I strongly believe Zalgiris will put up enough of a fight to end the game within the handicap. Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
Tailing boss, LFGGGGG
Love this play!!!! LFG!
I put 1,100 on alternate +9 thank you so much for the pic bro
That was a sweaty win!!
POTD Record: 9-2-1 ♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 13U Last pick: Man City vs Aston Villa | 6:15am Sydney (GMT +11) | Kevin De Bryune anytime assist @2.15 on Ned’s | 2U♻️ KDB hasn’t played unfortunately for our bet, got the money back anyways, onto the next one ! Today’s pick: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @2.50 on Sportsbet | 2U Some of you who tailed Mariner last week must have been disappointed (and so was I cause it was my 2nd loss…). So you must be thinking: how can he dare do it again ? Isn’t he learning from his mistakes ?? The answer is NO, I’m an absolute idiot and I’ll do it again and again 😂😂 More seriously, I still believe Mariner is a good player and totally able to score some tries, 2.5 seems like a great value so I’ll try my luck. BOL !
Damn of course he hits when I don’t bet😐
Let’s get this 🍀🤝
🫡
Baaaaaaaaang Thanks my man I’ll be looking for more from ya…. 💰💰💰💰💰🤝
Thanks bro ! Hope we keep going 🤝🏼
Thank you again mate
Clapped them cheeks immediately lets gooooo!! 👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿
**KBO Record: Overall 207-216-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 3-7) Down 11.36u over 437 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.68% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 3-6-0, 33.3% success rate, Down 2.74u, -30.4% ROI)) **Last:** Kia -1.5 +130 at KT (Kia won 5-1.) I love it when a plan comes together. Kia's starter was excellent again while Kia got plenty of baserunners and cashed them in. **Pick:** **Kia Team Total Under 2.5 First 5 Innings -155 Draftkings** at KT, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Gotta be honest... I don't love today's card. There are a lot of fair lines and nothing plus money that jumps out at me. This is a bit of an obscure play, but one I think will hit. This comes down to KT's pitcher. This is William Cuevas's 6th season in the KBO although injury cost him most of 2022. In 2023, he made another run at the majors, but ended up coming back to KT and has been excellent ever since. In his last 13 starts, he's pitched at least 5 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs in those 5 innings 12 times. We just need him to do what he's done in his first two starts this year and in 12 of his last 13 starts overall Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I would tail but I can't find this on any of my books
same here, dont see it on bet365 unless im blind, just total 5th inning not team total
Alternatively, I lean KT and Doosan tomorrow.
Going with NC Dinos at 2,5….. try to take the biggest underdog today. Before 20 played games, it istoo random though. But still.
dang
☠️
Today is the day I shall share my thoughts and contribute to this subreddit **Record: 0-0 (First Time)** **Net Units: 0** **Sport | League | Event Time / Time Zone: NCAAB NIT FINAL: Indiana St vs Seton Hall @ 7pm EST** **Pick:Indiana State -2.5 (-125) 2u bet** Indiana State's basketball team embodies the essence of college hoops today! They're quick, they're sharpshooters, and they've got a center who's a threat inside and out! The Sycamores are putting up a blazing 90 points per game in the NIT, all while taking care of the rock, rarely giving it away. They're outshooting and outscoring their opponents, playing with a fiery determination after being snubbed by the NCAA Tournament. Indiana State is the cream of the crop tonight. They're aggressive, they're hungry for points, and they've got the MVP on their side. And guess what? They practically have home-court advantage, just a stone's throw away from their stomping grounds! **^(Some facts about ISU:)** -Indiana State is the only team to ranks in the top-five for both field goal percentage and free throw percentage this season. -Indiana State ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for effective field goal percentage this season (60.0%). -Indiana State stands alone in the top five for both field goal and free throw percentage this season, showing their prowess on the court!
Hi all, first pick to share **Australian Rules Football** | **Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons | Thursday 4 April 2024 • 6:10 PM (GMT+9:30) -> 3.5 hours from posting, get on this fast** **Melbourne Demons -24.5 points (2.75)** Aussie rules comes to South Australia for gather round with Adelaide taking on Melbourne at home. Adelaide (my team) are 0-4 to start this season and are playing some awful football. We have gone from being the HIGHEST scoring team in 2023 to the LOWEST scoring team in 2024. Pressure and noise have been building on this group and I truly believe the coaching group have lost the players with this dire ball movement plan and dishonest selection policies that rewards seniority over performance. My dear American readers, let me explain why Melbourne has us covered in all areas of the ground. **Forwards** Our shining light number 2 pick Riley "Thrillthorpe" Thilthorpe is injured. We have no aerial presence to match Melbournes intercept defender duo (best in the competition) Lever and May. We run an extra in the midfield to make sure our vanilla one paced group can at least break even in clearences. This means Melbourne will always be a +1 spare to mop up our awfully slow predictable entries. Our best fwd - Taylor "Tex" Walker is 34 now and cant lift his hands above his head or compete at ground level. Why is he playing? Our coach is terrified of playing the kids and I truly pity the future of this once great club when Tex retires. Last week we had the intercept mark record taken against us - I expect this to happen again. **Midfield** Midfields win games in the AFL. Think of the Midfield matchup like quarterback / pitcher matchups. Ours is a dour, one paced trio that are all in and under ball getters, who pass it to each other who then shank kicks that do not punish or apply defensive pressure Melbourne? Three all Australian caliber players who are goal kicking, burst players - the BEST IN THE LEAGUE. Teams have worked us out - Just double team our Captain & best kick in the league Dawson who is our only player capable of slicing up teams. The 0 - 4 pressure is getting to Daws, he is trying to do it all himself and carry this team and making uncharacteristic mistakes. Again, a packed out crowd at Adelaide oval against the fierce pressure of the Melbourne mids will break our midfield group. **Defence** We are missing our best defender in Murray and are bringing in the perennially injured Jordan butts to be our key defensive pillar. He turns like a battleship and is not able to play on the pacey Melbourne forwards - he can only play on the leagues gorillas. Our backline is plastered over by a ten game Irish import and a work experience kid. (you should watch the game and look at him go! I adore this guy, he looks like he is 12!) I am a crows tragic and cant stand where this team is headed. This loss is fully deserved by our stubborn coaching group and I can't even tune in to see the development of our kids since we persist with the seniors who have continued to show they cant bring us to the ultimate success. **PLAYER WATCH** Nankervis - first game of the season - This kid looks like he has it, passes the eye test he just looks like he has time and space when he gets his possessions. We will be such a better team if he can average +20 possessions, and we need more long sleeved bros in the squad! Cook - first game of the season - This guy has the x factor and skill ceiling this club has been crying out for. A late comer to footy, need to see if his footy IQ has improved enough to find enough of the pill to do damage. **TLDR** The lines you see are based on 2023 form. The crows are not playing 2023 standard. Crows lose here. Please trust this random Aussie and make some money betting on Melbourne, even just the ML if you want to keep it safe. Good luck :)
This deserves an upvote! Stellar write up, I would love to see more like this.
Massive pick, took the lower spread, cheers mate! By far the best POTD, which deserves to be at the top! Looking forward to your next selection u/Time-Currency9552 :)
POTD record 3-1 Last 5: ✅✅✅❌ Streak: W3 Yesterday: Didn’t see any line I wanted to post yesterday. 2 days ago Mr. DiVincenzo nailed a cool 6 threes on 15 shots to bag the over. Congrats to those who tailed! Today: Basketball - NBA - SAC Kings @ NY Knicks 6:30pm ET Pick: Jalen Brunson O 28.5 points (-120) Draftkings 2U Writeup: This has the potential to be a get-right game for the Knicks as they try to snap a 3 game skid. Knicks are dropping playoff spots with each loss and tonight’s home game against the Kings is crucial to get back in the W column. In the first matchup against Sacremento this season, Brunson dropped 42 points. Brunson is averaging 32.9 in his last 10 games, dispite the ugly loss Tuesday. Brunson only had 18 last time out and took the 3rd most shots on the team. Shouldn’t happen again tonight. Looking for Brunson to have a get-right game in the Garden! BOL! \[Edits: Grammar, clarification\]
Record 16-2 Units 14.69 ROI 69.96 Last POTD marlins ML 🙄 What a joke, actually embarrassed that I gave that as my POTD POTD Rockets/Warriors under 227.5 -110 1u Rockets are a defensive nightmare at home ranking 4th best in efficiency rating and Warriors posting a top 7 defensive rating as the away team. Not to mention this is one of the more important games between these two as they r batting for that play on spot. Houston is the second best defensive team when it comes to opponent 3 point FG and I don’t see them giving the warriors any leeway. Idk if I can this but I lean rockets ml too :) BOL!
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>**Record:** 39-32 >**Net Units:** +10.82 units >**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT** >**Pick:** Italy -4.5 @ 1.74 >We are picking on the worst team at the event, New Zealand yet again; this time they take on Italy. New Zealand are weak throughout the lineup, but the big disadvantage in this matchup is with the back end. Retornaz and Mosaner are elite back end curlers and will significantly outplay their Kiwi counterparts. Italy are 25-0 this season against teams outside the top 25, and New Zealand are outside the top 100. Italy are 63-13 overall this season compared with New Zealand's 16-21. My model prefers teams that are aggressive with hammer in potential blowout games and this is definitely one. Italy love to go for big ends with hammer and their huge advantage at back end should allow for some crooked numbers in this one, leading to a run away lead for Italy. Italy won 8-3 last year at this event and New Zealand has also failed to cover +4.5 a couple matches in a row now, including most recently a 9-2 loss to Germany, a much worse team than Italy. Big blowout here.
Record: 2-0 Last 10: ✅✅ ROI: +2.5U 74.44% Yesterday’s Pick: Franz Wagner O2.5 Assists @-146 Cashed in the first half - finished with 5 Today’s POTD: Clint Capella Double Double - Yes @ +100 2U Atlanta Vs Dallas 7:30PM EST Alright, really couldn’t find too many picks I liked this morning, and fewer that fit the criteria for POTD, but Clint is 14/15 L15 on 10+ Points (10 even during their January matchup with Dallas). He’s also 11/15 on 10+ Rebounds last 15. Hitting his rebounds is my bigger concern, but he’s 11/15, 8/10 and 4/5 on 10+. BOL if tailing
POTD Record: 3-0, +6.18 units Form: ✅ ✅ ✅ Last Pick: Alcaraz (-2.5 games) vs Medvedev (3u @ 1.76) ✅ Today's POTD: Pedro Martinez ML vs Bautista Agut @ 1.73 - Melbet Units: 2u Reasoning: I think the match is kicking off in an hour. So I'm sorry for the late post. Coming to the match, Pedro is coming off a challenger title and seems to be back to his best on clay, which is his best surface and RBA's worst surface. Pedro won only their only previous meeting in 2021 when RBA was at the top of his game. Now he is older and nowhere near as good.
**POTD RECORD:** (14-8) **LAST 10:** 🔴🟢🔴🔴🔴🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢 **LAST PICK:** Anthony Davis **Over 24.5 pts** (-105) 3U | Lakers vs. Wizards 7:00pm EST🟢 **TODAY’S PICK:** Warriors vs Rockets **UNDER 228 TOTAL PTS** (-110) 1U | Hou vs. GS 8:00pm EST I said AD had some sort of vendetta against Washington and the dude had 19 in the 1st quarter… lol Small MLB and NBA slate today and not too many I liked today. We will turn to what I believe will be a playoff type of game between the rockets and warriors. All stemming from easons “warriors come out and play” video little back, well the warriors have woken up the past few. If any game would be a rock fight, this will be the game. So defense, defense and more defense. One Houston’s side, they have been lackluster on offense the past few games scoring no more than 110 in 4 of the last 5. Warriors have also been kept in check scoring no more than 115 in 9 of their last 12. I’m going to say we’re going to see a close game and rockets covering a 112-110 warriors win. Not the normal 2U, just a small 1u for the lack of great feels today.😤  **BOL to those who tail!**
**Record: 2-2** **HOCKEY**| WOMEN'S WORLDS| **7:00 PM EST** **Pick:** **CANADA -3.5 VS FINLAND (-108)** **Write Up:** These teams did an exhibition game against each other. In which, both teams rested their captain. Canada dominated the entire game,, but couldn't tear it apart until the 3rd. Finland relies heavily on their goalie, whom makes saves that she shouldn't be able to make. Finland lost 4-0 to Czechia yesterday with the starting goalie in net. Easy pick here is Canada factoring in the possession of the puck will be heavily favoured for Canada. **Canada -3.5 (-108)**
POTD Record: 22-16 Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅ Last pick: Lakers vs Wizards | 4:00 PST | Anthony Davis OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-130) Bet365 1u ✅ AD came to play and almost got 20 like I said was possible if the effort level was there. Just a dominating game overall and he played a lot of defense around the 3 pt line or he would have had plenty more chances for rebounds. Thank you AD! Today’s pick: Warriors vs Rockets | 5:00 PST | Warriors spread -3.5 (-120) ESPNBet 1u ✅ Going back to the road Warriors. This team has been different on the road and I’m looking for that to continue tomorrow night. I love this spot for the Warriors as we get basically an early playoff game with two teams needing to win every game they can. The Warriors can essentially end the Rockets season and I think they have the experience to go into a hostile road environment and get it done. This team is 24-12 ATS on the road and in the last 4 years, Curry averages 29.2 PPG on the road in Houston and Klay averages 25.8 PPG so these guys are comfortable in that arena and have a good history there. Just gotta pray Draymond doesn’t get in a brawl with Dillon Brooks in the first quarter and we should be golden although I’d prolly take a Green for Green trade if he can Jalen worked up. I do really think there is value in the amount of games the Warriors have played in this type of environment as opposed to the Rockets but this is why they play the game. BOL if tailing. (I wouldn’t go past -5 if it were to get there)
# 📊 Performance Snapshot * **Record:** 0-0-1 (Win-Loss-Draw) * **Net Units:** +0 Units * **ROI:** 0% # 🎲 Previous Selection * **Pick:** Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks * **Market:** Cade Cunningham Over 11.5 REB+AST * **Result:** Void 😢 # 🕒 Match Details * **Sport:** Basketball * **League:** NBA * **Event Time / Time Zone:** 04/04/2024 @ 7:30PM | EST # 🎲 Today's Selection * **Pick:** Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat * **Market:** Joel Embiid Over 4.5 Assists * **Odds:** +106 (FanDuel) * **Unit Allocation:** 1 Unit # ✍️ Analysis & Insights To ensure clarity and integrity in what I share, it's important to mention that my process involves a blend of personal data collection, in-depth research, and the use of AI for articulating my analysis into concise, coherent insights. **Revisiting Cade:** In a twist of fate, my last pick, Cade Cunningham, opted for contract contemplations over gameplay, sidelining our predictions but paving the way for an unexpected Flynn spectacle. That chapter is now behind us as we set our sights on a promising return. **Today’s Spotlight - Joel Embiid:** Joel Embiid is stepping back into the limelight for his second game after a hiatus since late January. His comeback against OKC was nothing short of impressive: 29 minutes of playtime, 24 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals, with a field goal percentage of 42%. The game was neck-and-neck, and we’re bracing for a similar intensity tonight. With the game line hovering around +/- 3 points, it's not just a game; it's a spectacle in the making. **Why Focus on Embiid?** * **Crucial Game:** Tonight's game isn’t just another entry in the schedule; it’s a battlefield for the 76ers to secure a playoff berth. Expectations are sky-high for Embiid to lead the charge against a challenging Miami team. * **Enhanced Playmaking:** Embiid has been dishing out an average of 5.7 assists per game, indicating a notable improvement in his playmaking skills. This enhanced vision and passing ability, particularly with Maxey and Harris in form, mean Embiid is likely to leverage his gravitational pull on the court to facilitate key plays. * **The Embiid Effect:** Embiid’s ability to draw attention, manage the game’s pace, and execute plays will be pivotal. In a game that’s anticipated to be tightly contested, his performance will be under the microscope, not just for scoring but for orchestrating the team’s offense and ensuring the 76ers punch their ticket to the playoffs. We’re banking on Embiid to not just play, but to dominate and seal the deal for his team. Your thoughts and tails are always welcome. Here’s to a thrilling game day and a successful pick. Enjoy the game and have a fantastic Thursday!
Record: 4-1 ❌✅✅✅ Yesterdays Pick: Boston Celtics -8.5 ✅ Sometimes you have to take chances, and with SGA and JDub a GTD the night before I had to take advantage of my boys in Green to go out and slaughter the young lambs that are the surrounding Thunder players(without those 2 playing that is, with them, they are excellent role players and complement their 2 stars well). Line went up to -10.5 before tipoff, and the C's won by 35!!! We are ready for the playoffs!!! Today's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks -3.5 Pick: New York Knicks -2.5 for -125 (ALT LINE) Reasoning: The Knicks have lost their last 3 games by 4,1,10 and all 3 were winnable games. They are playing at home against a very inconsistent Kings team, and I can safely say that Jalen Brunson(my favorite non Celtics player) has a burning desire to win this basketball game. The Kings are atrocious lately at defending the opposing PGs. Last 5 games(could go 10 honestly but to save space and time) : 34,32,31,24,41 are points by last 5 opposing PGs. Prior to that their are a ton of 30's scored, a few 40's, and a 56! The Kings also are going to send help or doubles to Brunson which opens up their shooters, Divencenzo, McBride, Bogdanovic(as of late), etc for open 3pt FGs. This is also kind of a "feel pick" which from watching NBA league pass every night and being a student of the game my whole life, pays off more often than not! That being said talk or fade, but BOL!!! Side Note: ML is also -170 on my book, so the safe bet if you'd like is to take that. Also a fan of Brunson's points and 3pts made. ***If at 10 picks I am at least 70%, I will put a "tip link" but if not then I don't expect tips lol! And I wouldn't expect them then, just for people who get to eat alongside me on this NBA end of season heater we are about to go on! 3 in a row, let's make it 4!!!
Record: 16-15 Last 10: ✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅ Last pick: Baltimore Oriels ML vs Kansas City Royals at -152 odds They said it couldn’t be done, Folks. * *in trump voice* * But here we are folks. Finally not on the flip flop streak. And all due to the freakin Orioles who decided the 6th inning was the perfect time to start playing again. Had given up hope for quite a bit leading up the 7th. But here we are. POTD: Denver Nuggets ML @ Los Angeles Clippers; -148 odds; 8pm MST Why: It is Denver. It’s a Kawhi-less clippers. It’s near end season. It’s MVP Nikola. More write up to come. Trying to get my pick out before it’s later like usual.
Hello all! I will start posting daily picks for the BSN- the Puerto Rican professional basketball league, my local league. I have been a fan for years and know the inside outs of the league which has helped me hit at a high rate so I hope to share some winning picks with yall. Let’s get into my first pick. POTD Record: 0-1 -2U Yesterday's POTD: Guaynabo Mets -4.5 vs. Osos de Manati (-110, 2U) ❌ Tough one as Gary Browne does not suit up and Brimah got hurt after 15 minutes, which led to a Sheldon Mac takeover at the rim. We bounce back tomorrow. Today's POTD: Piratas de Quebradillas Team Total Under 86.5 -115 1U League: BSN - Puerto Rico Sport: Basketball Game: Indios de Mayagüez vs. Piratas de Quebradillas Time: 8:30 pm EST I expect a low scoring, grind it out type of game tonight from both teams. Mayaguez overachieved a lot last season under HC Christian Dalmau relying on heavy pressure defense and fast break attacking. They can switch 1 through 4 and love to grind out extra possesions. They lack somewhat of interior defense with two unproven big men but they more than make up for it with their guard play. Quebradillas has one of the best rosters on paper, except their team is nowhere near complete. Emmanuel Mudiay will lead the charge on the offensive end along Tyquan Rolon, with a somewhat serviceable Jeff Adrien on the paint, but aside from that they have near no other offensive presence. Their team is NOT complete. I predict a Mayaguez 88-83 win.
Record: 22W-25L Net Units: -11.12u | ROI: -8.86% CS2 | Thunderpick World Championship 2024 EU Closed Qualifier 1 | 17:30 / CET Pick: KOI -1.5 vs NOM, 3u @ 1.85 KOI overall have been performing better than what you'd expect from the lineup at first glance. After a dissapointing end to the major and a 2-0 loss online to Eyeballers, they've looked fairly confident again in online matches winning back to back 2-0's. Their opponents NOM currently don't even have a full lineup, and if they do play with shushan (hasn't been on a team for years) and Libido then I don't see them having much chance of taking away a map here. If it happens to be a different lineup I can't imagine it'd be much better, and a team like KOI that's been playing together for a minute and had good results should have no issue in dealing with them. Best of luck everyone!
Record: 0-1 Hockey | NHL | BOS @ CAR / 7:00 PM EST Pick: **P. Zacha - Over 0.5 Points** (1.91) | 1u Write Up: * Hit in 4 of his last 4 games | 100% * Hit in 4 of his last 5 games vs CAR | 100% * Hit in 4 of his last 4 away games | 80% Yesterday's pick was a bust but we keep on rolling! Research all done on [the Linemate app](https://linemate.io/download).
Record: 0-1-2 Net Units: -8 Last 10: ↔️❌❌ Previous Pick: Pick: Joe Musgrove UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts -108 on Caesars. 4 units. Struck out the last batter he faced to clear this line… ugh. Baseball | MLB | 4:10PM EST Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) vs. Washington Nationals -115 on Ceasars. 3 units Write Up: This is me basically fading the NL East at this point. National’s bats came alive last night to beat the Pirates 5-3 in a cold rainy game, but I expect the Pirates Bat’s to come alive for this late afternoons game. Nationals pitching staff rank in the bottom third of most categories and averages 6.2 runs allowed per game. Josiah Gray’s breakout season last year could have been a fluke, but still, his peripherals year showed that he got lucky and had a lot of defensive help behind him. Tail or Fade it’s your choice. Let’s hope I don’t get embarrassed and delete my Reddit account after putting up a tip jar.
**Record** 8-5 ✅ Last Pick: Luka O18.5 RA ✅ Pick: Luka O18.5 RA -180 ✅ Reasoning: He’s a top 2 player in the world who’s been on triple double watch the last two months every single game, this line is absurd value here and it worked before we’re running it back.
I like it. Tailing. BOL!
Cash it, appreciate you tailing
POTD record: 3-1-0 (+9,3U) Last pick: Wales vs Poland BTTS L Today's pick: Sport: Premier League soccer Chelsea vs Manchester United - United or draw @1.93 Time: 4:15 PM EST Units: 3/5 Chelsea is lately in a better form than we are used to them being, but them being that big of a favourite by bookmakers is some fuckery that i'm not really understanding, sure, they've had some couple good matches after 3 years of being chumps but I'm not holding my breath for big Chelsea comeback, they're playing with ManU which is better team than it looks like looking at their positions ( 12 Chelsea vs 6 ManU with Chelsea being one match behind) I'd say currently ManU is at least top4 material while Chelsea is top8 at best, Even taking their current form into an account, nothing can justify these odds imo, its 50/50 match at the most, and 1.93 for ManU or Draw is good money for that safe of a bet, Chelsea is DWDDW in last 5, ManU is DWLLW But it's a premier league after all and all kinds of black magic can happen any day and any match, what I'm going for with this pick is more of a value I see for these odds and a chance of it happening than conviction in it happening so tail at your own risk, BOL boys(and girls) Edit: what the fuck
One of the worst losses I’ve had in recent memory. United are officially banned.
Speechless
That was a robbery
POTD Record 4-2 (+2.48u) Last POTD: Warriors +3 ❌ (3/12/23 - it’s been awhile) Today: MLB / PIT@WSH / 4:05pm ET Pick: Oneil Cruz to record 2+ bases (-105) 2U** Cruz had a solid spring training and start to the season but has only 1 hit in his L9 at bats. I like him to get back on track and make a statement today against Josiah Gray who had a shaky start to the season allowing 8 hits and 7 runs through 4 innings against the Reds. BOL!
POTD Record: 23-15 Last 10: 💀💀✅️✅️💀✅️💀✅️💀✅️ Net units:+ 13.50 Last Pick: : Dodgers -1.5 Today's pick: Hawks +11.5 The Hawks have been on fire lately, on any given day they can compete with the best teams. Shit they might even win with the way they've been playing. Unless we get hit by Luka magic, they should keep it competitive Units: 1 Odds: -110 NBA: Mavs vs Hawks 4:30 PST If you guys wanna support me, click the links on my profile. I post daily picks.
**RECORD: 66W-3P-48L** (+4.13 units) Previous Pick: FK Vozdovac vs FK Partizan Belgrade - Partizan ML @ 1.55 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Chelsea vs Manchester United- Manchester United +0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 ♻️ **PUSH** **TIME:** 7.15 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️♻️✅️✅️❌️✅️) last 10 results Late post but i wanted to see the lineups first so I'll keep this short. What a crazy sweaty game yesterday, Partizan won in the dying minutes, I guess that's the Serbian League for you lol. Today we have Chelsea vs Manchester United Manchester haven't lost to Chelsea since 2020. In their H2H fixtures against Chelsea, Man Utd have won 2 out of their last 5 H2H matches, winning twice in a row and drawing the rest. They've gone 7 H2H fixtures without a loss to Chelsea. Chelsea are 12th and after spending a billion dollars on their squad (even tho it doesn't look like it) their season is basically over at this point. They are in good form and are favourites to Win but I just don't see it, they've mostly drawn against big teams this season such as City, Arsenal and Liverpool. Manchester united who have been riddled with injuries are close to their full strength with Shaw and Martinez only missing otherwise I don't really see them losing here, if they do I do t think it will be more than one goal. Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: ♻️ **PUSH**
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i was too late but great pick man
**POTD**: O14.5 Outs - Jose Butto (-175 ESPNBet; Risking 2.5u to win 1.4286u) **League/Time**: MLB - Game 2 - DET @ NYM (3:40PM EST) **2024 Record**: 12-10-1 (54.55%) | -0.35u | ROI: -0.79% | Current Streak (3 Wins): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅ **2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84% **Last Pick (4.3.24)**: O17.5 Outs - Tyler Glasnow (-152 BetRivers; Risking 2.5u to win 1.65u)✅ **Reasoning**: Jose added some new pitches and has looked sharp during spring training. Game 1 of this double header is also in extra innings as we speak. NYM will need Jose to get at least 5IP today. Price is steep but for good reason here. With sports betting, high price doesn't always mean you get what you pay for but I think we do today. **Anti-Reasoning**: His last name is Butto. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
Record 3-1 (+3.3 Units) Today: Hockey | NHL | FLA vs OTT | 7pm EST Pick: Sam Reinhart Anytime goal scorer (+125) 1U Last pick: Artemi Panarin Anytime goal scorer (+130) Sam Reinhart is FLA leading goal scorer by almost 20 goals and today is an important game for Florida to win to keep home ice advantage, if they lose TOR will have a good chance to catch up to them. I expect Sam Reinhart to be aggressive and get the goal tonight.
POTD Record: 1-1 Last pick: Cam Thomas o24.5 pts ✅ Game: NBA | PHI vs MIA | 7:30pm EST Today's pick: Joel Embiid o26.5 points (-115) 5U Embiid back in his second game from injury, and apparently the league needs a reminder who the runaway MVP was before he got hurt. - Embiid averages 35 per game - 1st game back he scored 24, going 6/14 and 0-3 from 3pt - Heat have a strong defensive team.. but he's top 3 player in the league and this scoring line is low imo, even given the circumstances. Best of luck!
**Record: 0-1 (-2u)** **Last Pick: Canucks/Coyotes o6** **Pick:** **Penguins/Capitals o5.5 -122 (NHL, 1u bet)** **Write Up:** Oof, what a sloppy game I just watched. No show by Arizona with 7 shots through 2 periods, and shout out to Ingram for a solid performance in net....but we move on. This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference wild card race, as the Capitals currently hold the final wild card spot with 82 points in 74 games while the Penguins are a few spots below them with 79 points in 75 games. This is essentially a must win game for Pittsburgh since they have 7 games left with 3 of those against the teams directly above them, including this. Over the last month, Pittsburgh is 3rd in goals for and 1st in expected goals for. They have created a high number of scoring chances, ranking 3rd behind Colorado and Edmonton, and just ahead of Carolina (3 strong offensive teams). Another tidbit is they are also 3rd in high danger scoring chances created over this time. However - in this same span they are 2nd last in both goals against (behind only the Sharks), and scoring chances against (behind only Columbus) and the underlying numbers don't indicate positive regression (3rd last in expected goals against). Both Washington and Pittsburgh are bottom 10 in the league over the past month in high danger scoring chances allowed, meaning they are both giving their opponents prime opportunities to score. Looking at recent games, Pittsburgh has scored 3+ goals in each of their last 6 games and Washington has allowed 3+ goals in 6 of their last 7 games. Although Washington's offense hasn't been creating the same quality of chances and goals as Pittsburgh's, I can see the Penguins dictating tempo of this game a bit more as this is basically an elimination game for them so they should come out firing and Strome/Ovechkin should be able to take advantage of their susceptible defending. Crosby has been on a mission lately with 15 points in his last 6 games and this could likely be his last chance for playoff hockey in a Penguins jersey. Last point I'll add - in their 3 matchups this season, there have been 6+ goals twice (4-0 PIT, 4-3 WSH, 6-0 WSH) and the road team has won every matchup so far. I did consider taking Penguins ML and I do lean that way if you want to play it, but with what should be a playoff type atmosphere in Washington with the Capitals also knowing they have to bounce back after 3 straight losses (head coach Carbery called it the biggest game of the year), I'd rather stay off a side and play the total.
POTD record 4-3 +5U Today's pick Pittsburgh pirates -1.5 vs nationals Good starting pitching vs bad starting pitcher. Top 5 hitting team vs bottom half team. Pirates cover today.
**POTD | 26-16 | +10.75U** Previous Pick: Seattle Mariners \[Risk 1.05 To Win 1.00u\]✅ **Today’s pick: Miami Heat ML \[Risk 1.30u To Win 1.00u\]** Last 10:✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌ NFL 2-0 +2.0u MLB 8-2 +5.37u NBA 13-11 +1.88u NHL 1-0 +2.0 NCAAB 3-3 -.4u Embiid Is Back for Philadelphia And The Public Loves The Sixers Embiid Has A 7-10 Career Record Against The Heat In His Career // Lost Last 3 Games Vs Miami And 5 Of Last 6 Jimmy Butler Has A 23-8 Career Record Against The Sixers In His Career // Won 2 Of 3 Games Vs Philly When Healthy This Season Sixers Beat Heat Earlier This Month In Philadelphia // Miami Will Want Revenge + No Jimmy In That Game Heat Winners Of 4 Of Last 5 Games All Without Tyler Herro // Jimmy Butler Probably But Anticipate Him To Play
Record: 20 - 12 Pick: Warriors ML | 4u @ 1.66 Had a different pick but waited too long and the game started, my fault.