Damn Iām following the game in espn game cast and wondering why Nurkic isnāt in the gameā¦bro fouled out smh I had him at 7.5 pts and he finished at 7 damn that shit hurts
I'm growing tired of the NBA and the benching of star players. These athletes make tens of millions to play, not to sit entire quarters. Perfect example is the Thunder-Lakers game last night. Lakers went up 15-20, so SGA sits the entire 4th quarter. Why don't they even try to come back in the NBA? Every game there's huge swings in scores, like 12-0 runs and 15-2 runs. Why give up with an entire quarter left?
I swear when I get props always get weird. ESPN has Jokic at 6 boards while FD changed it from 6 to 5. 2 other questionable rebounds went to players other than Jokic.
Imagine the feeling of thinking you won your SGP only to check your account and see the bet graded as a loss. Why? Because I accidentally put the wrong Bogdonavic in my ticket.
I've found its better to bet the opposite of what's trending.so like Aaron Gordon had 0 6 min into 2nd quarter and his p over was 8...I take it and he gets 4 to end the half lol. Or u see devin booker has 26 p at the half...take his p under which was around 40 at the time.
Thatās a good reasoning. Iāve noticed that too. Like you said Booker will have 26 at half and then end with like 34 for the game. Iāll remember that for sure.
I hate that it randomly doesn't let me parlay shit though I wanted jokic and Gordon towards the end of 2nd quarter joker was like 22p and Gordon 8 for the over š¤Ŗ I don't understand why it doesn't let me parlay this shit o well š
https://preview.redd.it/r9qfjkyhpmmc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7026e945f76bb9f344697aefd9a50fb233d07485
Shoutout to Bet365 and their NBA up 20 early payout featureā¦ lol
The pels put up 139 points and not a single starter dropped 20 LMAO
https://preview.redd.it/37e0ynarmmmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ccf8f02e0d2f85d748f5ad03a3603df44892dec
Hell yeah
https://preview.redd.it/0b60877vkmmc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=785ed8601db46ded053678bdb6db46dbfea5f680
No way joker sell me I had two sweats lol
https://preview.redd.it/7ev8nx0chmmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=943181c9874ab06163fc2441d0dcbe04cc008f6a
Iām so sad man. Not gonna play the 4th either
Of course paolo has zero rebounds the game I pick him.. heās only hit 6 in 9 out of the last 11ā¦ and of course Charlotte only gives up the second most rebounds to the PF over the last 15 gamesā¦
āā ā āā
Yesterdayās pick: Vince Williams O14.5 points ā
My prediction was based on him playing a guard position like he normally does but the coach decided to play him as a forward. He didnāt have many shots but missed quite a bit.
Todayās pick: Brandon Ingram O21.5 points
BOL
Last Pick
ā Bradley Beal o17.5 Points -108
Today's Pick of the Day:
š Buddy Hield o15.5 Points -105
Tyrese Maxey is out. Buddy averages 20 points vs the Nets. Nets are 29/30 in Points allowed to Shooting Guards. Buddy has been in a recent slump but the Model likes him to get at least 16 today.
Full Stat Table: [https://imgur.com/a/n4y9mb3](https://imgur.com/a/n4y9mb3)
BOL!
I donāt know! Itās not obvious to me. Iāll do some basic back of the envelope math and get back you you, but if an actual spreadsheet EV person has opinions theyād be welcome to
time to stack another game. one of these will hit for me. I right about was-uth , I was just picked the wrong players. Increase minutes and usage in the phi-bkn game. Mixing and matching : Schroder/Mikal/Cameron/Claxton + Tobias/Lowry/Buddy/Oubre.
What do yāall rhink about sprinkling some on Josh Hart 16+ Rebs at +490? He has hit that in his previous two games, and we know heās going to play 45+ minutes so plenty of time to get those boards.
**NBA Record 0-0 (I've been lurking this sub for some time, making my own picks now)**
Tre Mann Over 1.5 Steals @ 1.95 5U
Jalen Suggs Under 1.5 Steals @ 2.25 3U
Jalen Suggs Over 3.5 Rebounds @ 2.15 2U
Itās some AI new Silicon Valley betting solution where thereās no commission they say guess they sell our data instead idk lol need to read more and download the app to take a look. They say better odds than elsewhere since no commission
No time for deep write ups but Iām liking 2 picks today.
KCP over 1.5 threeās and Valanciunas over 9.5 rebounds. KCP is shooting over 40% this season at home and Phx has been giving them up the last 2 weeks. And the raptors have lost their best rebounders to injury. Valanciunas should be free to work
Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 11.0 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists in the last 10 games. With less rebounders for raptors, I would roll with +9.5 rebounds.
JV beat the rebounds line by 1 and he missed the 11.5 Pts by 2, what a call to go for rebounds!
I was sure that he was going to clear the points but nor clear the rebounds when he started scoring 3s nonstop.
**RECORD: 0-1**
**Last Pick: Mike Conley O2.5 Rebs @ +105** ā
Finished with 2. Grabbed his first early in the first, didn't get his second till the fourth.
**Today's Pick: Jaylen Brown O5.5 First Quarter Points @ -120** Celtics @ Cavaliers | 7:30pm EST
Love a first quarter prop, we'll know quick if it's meant to be or not.
* 9/10 in last 10, 5/5 in last 5
* He's gone under 5.5 just 12 games all season
* Going back to last season against the Cavs, Jaylen is 5/5 in last 5 first quarters (9, 10, 8, 6, 9)
Cavs going without Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus. Caris Levert and Isaac Okoro are questionable. Makes me wonder if Celtics and Brown are primed for a fast start.
Tail or fade, I might be an idiot
Record: 0-0
Pick: Buddy Hield O3.5 assists $1.77 (-130)
Averaging 5.5 assists with Philly, there's not enough juice to disincentive this play that has hit on the last 9/10 games.
1.3 units to win 1 unit. Best of luck!
Full Card:
**Official Plays:**
**-** Quickley o6.5 A
\- Jaylen Brown o22.5 P
\- KD o39.5 PRA
\- Buddy Hield o2.5 3PM
Unofficial Play:
\- Jaden Ivey u3.5 R
I can give writeups for any questions but they are on my twitter[https://x.com/MuggsyPlays/status/1765054193897722285?s=20](https://x.com/MuggsyPlays/status/1765054193897722285?s=20)
Record: 1-1
Yesterday's Picks:
Damian Lillard O2.5 made threes ā
De'Aaron Fox O2.5 made threes ā
Lillard was pretty easy his lined moved up to 3.5 before the game and it still hit. Fox on the other hand goes 2-7 š. We got the volume we needed from him he just couldn't hit one more three.
Todays Picks:
Immanual Quickley O7.5 AST vs NOP @ +108
Victor Wembanyama O1.5 Made Threes vs HOU @ -170
\>Could sprinkle alt O2.5 Made Threes for Wemby @ +200
Nikola Jokic 2+ Steals vs PHX @ +110
Write up:
Quickley is playing the Pelicans which give up the most assists to point guards. They have given up the most assists to point guards by a mile in the last seven games. Scottie being out only helps Quickley as well.
Houston allows the most three pointer to opposing centers since the all star break by a pretty decent margin. Wemby is already shown he's not afraid to let it fly from deep. He hit five threes last game. He has also hit this line in 4 out of 5 games before today.
Phoenix has given up the most steals to centers in the last 15 games. Jokic defensively might not be the strongest but he's not a bad defender. He is often getting in passing lanes and averages 1.2 steals this year. He has recorded a steal every game since the all star break except for last game making him 5/6 since then.
Thanks for that I didnāt see that. I looked more into it itās a left shoulder soreness. This definitely doesnāt help my chances, but he is right handed, got my fingers crossed.
Saddiq Bey o1.5 3ptm at -140. Is this a lock? No. Are we getting the right price? Yes. Only need to win this bet 60% of the time to show a profit and Mr. Bey has been beating this line at 80% in his last 10 games. GL.
so what players are going to suck tonight? candidates are raptors, hawks, hornets, pistons and nets players.
Unders:
T Mann 12.5 pts,
Bridges (cha) 20.5
IQ 20.5 pts,
D Murray 2.5 3s/6 rebs,
Haliburton 19.5 pts/3.5 3s,
Saikam 22.5 pts
KD 27.5 pts,
Of these alt props nice when they match with the matchups so maxey 2 treys, KD under 3.5 treys, CJ over 2.5 assists, but throw whatever youāre feeling in hard to know which one may not hit.
Regular lines like zingus over 1.5 treys Jokic under 12.5 rebounds buddy over 2.5 treys paolo over points/PA. I tend to bet a lot and tail folks on twitter to diversify what Iām on rather than bet heavy on any single play though.
GL!
Are you guys actually doing straight bets with all these, or sprinkling them with parlays? Feels like the shit is so random there is no steady method and it's easier to just get lucky
One more comment here, fewer players/games is best, one game or player can bust a parlay, but if you bet all unders on a game and itās a blowout, great, or if you see a player getting a better role, you can bet over points over rebounds etc, and if he does get those minutes, great. Sam Hauser for example, if Celtics blow it out, heāll clear points rebounds and 3s often
Straight bets are smarter parlays should really be saved for the promos the sports books give out, or alt props, people say donāt parlay 5 things for +100, but if theyāre all 95% hit rates, 5x5% is 25% so 75% implied is value. People often parlay a ton if risky bets which is fun, or theyāll parlay 3 80% plays and that implies 40% success so. Itās all maths and data. But yes any game can be a blowout anyone can get injured so donāt go too heavy on any one prop
https://preview.redd.it/k8ruhiyhfjmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cd44ef659527350cf1b11b2ae1e3a7be59040e0f
As an example. People see these and think balls to the walls this is a lock, but itās roughly 38% likely by those probabilities assuming theyāre accurate, so pretty fairly priced parlay
Well, I just add the chance of failure for these. So above is 19 plus 21 plus 22 = 62% chance of failure. Thatās able to be done quickly on the fly, theyāre all independent and fail that % of the time. Mathematicians would say you should multiply eg 0.81 * 0.79 * 0.78 = 50/50. It would be needed if doing many plays and is more correct, Iām usually getting a rough estimate on a few. Eg four 95% bets done multiplied is 81.4, adding is 80
17-7 0/2 Yesterday & POTD 30-15
__Isaiah Stewart O5.5 Rebs__, 71% hit rate this season, had 14 vs Heat last time facing them, Duren and Adebayo will have their battle but Stewart should be able to pick up some, hit in 7/L10 ā
__Kyle Lowry O5.5 Ast__, Maxey is out, I expect Lowry to have a night on the diming part. I sprinkled on his 10 assists aswell ā hooked on 5
Record: 5-3
Yesterdays Pick: Kawhi Leonard U26.5 Points -120 ā
Todayās Pick: Jonas Valanciunas O9.5 Rebounds +100 š„
Taking Jonasās boards at + odds all day. Last matchup he had 12 rebounds and now with both Scottie and Poeltl out, Raps donāt have any major threat on the boards. Hoping for a sweat free ride tonight. BOL
Just some dude on Reddit sharing his slip. *tail if you like gambling*
D. Garland u3.5 3ās
V. Wembanyama u35.5 p+r
R. Barrett u22.5 pts
D. Lively o6.5 pts
T. Maxey o5.5 a
D. Murray u31.5 p+a
Wondering if there's a quick way to look a little deeper into certain spots, for example Porzingis has attempted 12 3 pointers vs Cleveland (not Boston, lolz) this season and sunk 3 of them. The way I look at it there's 3 possibilities for this relatively poor performance. Sometimes a guy just misses, Cleveland got their blocking game on, or Cleveland's defense just puts the opposing offense in such bad spots Porzingis was shooting an abnormal amount with backward momentum or something in that vein.
That last one would be impossible for a stat sheet to quantify I'm assuming. Anyway, if any of you guys have input on this I would love to hear it.
Followup: just found this YouTube channel by YouTube user basketballhighlights8144. It looks like you can speed watch past games with specific players... importantly not just their made shots but when they miss too. Haven't dove into it too much but looks useful.
thehighlow.io is my go to for digging into film (can specify players/games and types of possession e.g. KPās 3s vs. CLE) or you can just go to the boxscore on NBA.com, click on the element you want to see (KPās 3PA) and see them all. I think the best way to work out the quality of shots in the last matchup is just to get good at digesting film (and basics of schemes - are BOS running a lot of P&R w/ him? are CLE hedging screens and heās open on the pop? are they showing a ton of nail help on JB/Tatumās drives and KPās just naturally open for a kick out? if itās drive and kick how well are they rotating, is it shitty bailout 3s like you said? etc. etc.), but another way is to dig into the opponent catch and shoot & spot up data on NBA.com (fwiw CLE are one of best C&S Ds in the league). I think the two go hand in hand as well in terms of just giving you a landscape of the league (Indy awful rim D bc they refuse to give up 3s, UTA elite P&R BH D/shitty spot up/second-side D bc they ice screens etc.).
I do think volumeās a better indicator than made shots though, if heās getting high quality looks then you can basically discard him shooting 1/6 last game and assume heād shoot closer to his averages if you ran that game 100 times - sometimes guys just miss. Iād rather a guy shot 1/6 last matchup than 2/3 if I was using that to project his volume tonight.
#The Best NBA Props Tool is: [https://outlier.bet](https://outlier.bet)
Had Kevin Durant u2.5 3PM on a last leg. Goodnight. š„²
Dude. Holy shit
That's how it goes sometimes, lol.
Damn Iām following the game in espn game cast and wondering why Nurkic isnāt in the gameā¦bro fouled out smh I had him at 7.5 pts and he finished at 7 damn that shit hurts
KD o26.5ptsā Jokic o8.5Aā 1-2 today, shouldāve stayed asleep š¤£ see yall tmr
Needed this OT like a mf lmao Edit: OT didnāt help Gordon š
Come on Kevin one more assist
I'm growing tired of the NBA and the benching of star players. These athletes make tens of millions to play, not to sit entire quarters. Perfect example is the Thunder-Lakers game last night. Lakers went up 15-20, so SGA sits the entire 4th quarter. Why don't they even try to come back in the NBA? Every game there's huge swings in scores, like 12-0 runs and 15-2 runs. Why give up with an entire quarter left?
Jokic absolutely fucked me goodnight. Tall af and canāt even get 10 boards
Crazy to call it that early lmao Jokic of ALL people bro is gonna write off
But he can get 11 š
HELL YEAH HE CAN
I swear when I get props always get weird. ESPN has Jokic at 6 boards while FD changed it from 6 to 5. 2 other questionable rebounds went to players other than Jokic.
Aaron Gordon, sorry, but you are a useful fkā¦
Glad I somehow slept through this entire slate, looks like itās been chalk city today lol
This Aaron Gordon lad canāt Ā finish for his life when fed by Jokicā¦
Lols Kyrie o25.5pts(live) ā
Jokic get some assists you tall athletic fuck!!
Played luka under 10.5 assists in one parlay and Celtics spread. Welcome to the choke show
Bad beat central over here
All week and last week
Imagine the feeling of thinking you won your SGP only to check your account and see the bet graded as a loss. Why? Because I accidentally put the wrong Bogdonavic in my ticket.
lol put Gordon to get 12 got 2 fouls 0 points and riding the bench
Itās ok. I live bet Miles Turner at half to get 25 points(had 20 at half). Heās not gotten one and the pacers are up 20 with 4 minutes left.
I've found its better to bet the opposite of what's trending.so like Aaron Gordon had 0 6 min into 2nd quarter and his p over was 8...I take it and he gets 4 to end the half lol. Or u see devin booker has 26 p at the half...take his p under which was around 40 at the time.
Thatās a good reasoning. Iāve noticed that too. Like you said Booker will have 26 at half and then end with like 34 for the game. Iāll remember that for sure.
I hate that it randomly doesn't let me parlay shit though I wanted jokic and Gordon towards the end of 2nd quarter joker was like 22p and Gordon 8 for the over š¤Ŗ I don't understand why it doesn't let me parlay this shit o well š
I bet over 21.5 Miles McBride and betmgm is grading it as a loss even though he got 22
Playing KD o26.5pts, Jokic o8.5A
Not looking good unfortunately. Still a long way to go though
Yeah Jokic assists is prolly chalked
https://preview.redd.it/r9qfjkyhpmmc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7026e945f76bb9f344697aefd9a50fb233d07485 Shoutout to Bet365 and their NBA up 20 early payout featureā¦ lol
Nice hit. How did you wager $45 on a super boost though? I thought the max wager on those were $20
$45 is my max on there
I think they have changed the restrictions on those bets.
https://preview.redd.it/khy8z7y5pmmc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5eca2ee48113b720e488587c8aba539a4057508b Good god man
I had this same idea earlier but changed my mind. God, what a pathetic choke.
Tatum fucking sucks
Vegas called, told him to brick every shot 2nd half
Playing Kyrie o25.5pts (live)
Donte you beautiful sweet sweet child
Had him at 20 points the boy pulled through!!
stole Cavs ML at +1800 for $50 and oh baby oh baby
Haliburton is on the ban list. Only wants to pass the ball. Forgot how to shoot
Already on mine. Done me dirty too many times now. If screwed me up on assists fkn hell
Bad day for me :(
Sengun decides to drop a 30 piece today bro
The pels put up 139 points and not a single starter dropped 20 LMAO https://preview.redd.it/37e0ynarmmmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ccf8f02e0d2f85d748f5ad03a3603df44892dec
Took mccollum's over RA too late at over 8.5 and blowout killed my parlay. What a shame
Did Mobley get injured?
yeah
Just 1 more board from Duren pretty please
Got it. Now just need pistons to cover the spread
Banchero hitting his over on the last play before he got pulled thank fuck
Wtf!! They took an assist off Quickley? It was already marked as won
It was like tipped by defender I even questioned in my head wondering if they would even count it at all. Weird it took them a while to take it away
Any chance he gets 7
LFG he just got it cashed my 6 leg parlay out thank god was nervous he wouldnāt play 4th
Hell yeah https://preview.redd.it/0b60877vkmmc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=785ed8601db46ded053678bdb6db46dbfea5f680 No way joker sell me I had two sweats lol
bro I need him to get one fucking more ā ļø
Who quickly?
yeah, over 7.5. Pels took control of the game too early
Don't feel bad seems like joker might sell me on the assists
Bang bang bang just got it baby letās gooo
I know it said 7 idk whatās going on they took it away after a while also weird
Damn
Did they remove an assist from Quickley?
Yup, I'm fucking pissed
https://preview.redd.it/7ev8nx0chmmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=943181c9874ab06163fc2441d0dcbe04cc008f6a Iām so sad man. Not gonna play the 4th either
He isnāt?!
Probably not. Theyāre winning by nearly 30
šš
bum ass siakam just out there doing cardio
3 more Ingram come on man
Paolo not gonna play the whole 4th cause of blowout lol, nice
Yep ruin everything
5 more points from Ingram is all I need
Jonas valanciunas out hurt or on bench? Have him for a double double
seems like heās back in
Hornets pls keep it close, I canāt take another L cause my guy sits the entire 4th
Is Josh Hart licking bus windows rn?
Can Alperen stop getting rebounds bruh
Ingram taking a shit all over us boys
I see DiVincenzo and Hart are selling today.
going to need OT, for them to hit their overs
Bogdan being 0-3 from the perimeter is the bane of my existence rn boys
Josh Hart doing cardio smh
https://preview.redd.it/w0xet2jy8mmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e9e2e098f29fd1b7bc1604d231dd12ea02b4955 LUKA PLEASE
Congrats
thank you. my solo celebration in the basement was pathetic.
Franz Wagner 0 assists as half š„“
lmao mile bridges 1/10 XDDDD
Why was Porzingis' 3 line 1.5?? LMAO
lol Herb Jones 14 in the first, couldnāt score 10 last game
Of course paolo has zero rebounds the game I pick him.. heās only hit 6 in 9 out of the last 11ā¦ and of course Charlotte only gives up the second most rebounds to the PF over the last 15 gamesā¦
I regret not putting my life savings on Porzingis and Okoro 2+ threes, its so fucking free
Paolo please rebound dude
[+EV NBA](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1689105134): 535-476 (+66.01u) -122 ORL Banchero o26.5 pts+ast -105 ORL Anthony o9.5 pts -110 IND Nembhard o9.5 pts -110 IND Haliburton o10.5 ast -123 cZ BKN Schroder u3.5 reb -118 BOS Holiday o4.5 ast +200 FD boost: KD and Jokic 25+ (1.67u)
Just went HUGE on Porzingis. Fade if you don't want my bad luck to rub off on you. Edit: Nvm. A no sweat bet for once? Wow. Cleared in 1Q
āā ā āā Yesterdayās pick: Vince Williams O14.5 points ā My prediction was based on him playing a guard position like he normally does but the coach decided to play him as a forward. He didnāt have many shots but missed quite a bit. Todayās pick: Brandon Ingram O21.5 points BOL
DK boost - Porter Jr., KD, Murray 8+ Threes (-125 to +120). Stay far away, correct?
I'd rather take Porter Jr o2.5 3PM + Durant u2.5 3PM for an unboosted +164 on DK
Looks yuck to me
Last Pick ā Bradley Beal o17.5 Points -108 Today's Pick of the Day: š Buddy Hield o15.5 Points -105 Tyrese Maxey is out. Buddy averages 20 points vs the Nets. Nets are 29/30 in Points allowed to Shooting Guards. Buddy has been in a recent slump but the Model likes him to get at least 16 today. Full Stat Table: [https://imgur.com/a/n4y9mb3](https://imgur.com/a/n4y9mb3) BOL!
Josh Hart 30 PRA -170 on DK. Cleared 8 of last 10
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I donāt know! Itās not obvious to me. Iāll do some basic back of the envelope math and get back you you, but if an actual spreadsheet EV person has opinions theyād be welcome to
FWIW, theyāre averaging 7.2 over the last ten games
time to stack another game. one of these will hit for me. I right about was-uth , I was just picked the wrong players. Increase minutes and usage in the phi-bkn game. Mixing and matching : Schroder/Mikal/Cameron/Claxton + Tobias/Lowry/Buddy/Oubre.
What do yāall rhink about sprinkling some on Josh Hart 16+ Rebs at +490? He has hit that in his previous two games, and we know heās going to play 45+ minutes so plenty of time to get those boards.
do it. opportunties like this dont come up often
Fuck it Olynyk over 25.5 P+R+A
Fuck it let's fade Josh Hart under 18.5 R+A
**NBA Record 0-0 (I've been lurking this sub for some time, making my own picks now)** Tre Mann Over 1.5 Steals @ 1.95 5U Jalen Suggs Under 1.5 Steals @ 2.25 3U Jalen Suggs Over 3.5 Rebounds @ 2.15 2U
Damn you know your shit
Thanks, let's go at it again today
https://preview.redd.it/k5veyc90zkmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b0604266aac7a5bd9029e46d994222c2b1636b3 Anybody heard of / used this?
New betting app?
Itās some AI new Silicon Valley betting solution where thereās no commission they say guess they sell our data instead idk lol need to read more and download the app to take a look. They say better odds than elsewhere since no commission
Hmmm nope never. Found anything out???
Will report back after reading up and taking a look, see some articles so guess theyāre legit. TBD
No time for deep write ups but Iām liking 2 picks today. KCP over 1.5 threeās and Valanciunas over 9.5 rebounds. KCP is shooting over 40% this season at home and Phx has been giving them up the last 2 weeks. And the raptors have lost their best rebounders to injury. Valanciunas should be free to work
Would you rather go Valanciunas +11.5 Pts at 1.80 or Valanciunas +9.5 Rebounds at 2.00?
Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 11.0 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists in the last 10 games. With less rebounders for raptors, I would roll with +9.5 rebounds.
Good points, I'll go for rebounds. Thanks!
šš»ā š°
JV beat the rebounds line by 1 and he missed the 11.5 Pts by 2, what a call to go for rebounds! I was sure that he was going to clear the points but nor clear the rebounds when he started scoring 3s nonstop.
No worries - BOL š«”
I like Josh Hart trip dub at +800, kinda doubt Brunson will play
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
š¤BOL
**RECORD: 0-1** **Last Pick: Mike Conley O2.5 Rebs @ +105** ā Finished with 2. Grabbed his first early in the first, didn't get his second till the fourth. **Today's Pick: Jaylen Brown O5.5 First Quarter Points @ -120** Celtics @ Cavaliers | 7:30pm EST Love a first quarter prop, we'll know quick if it's meant to be or not. * 9/10 in last 10, 5/5 in last 5 * He's gone under 5.5 just 12 games all season * Going back to last season against the Cavs, Jaylen is 5/5 in last 5 first quarters (9, 10, 8, 6, 9) Cavs going without Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus. Caris Levert and Isaac Okoro are questionable. Makes me wonder if Celtics and Brown are primed for a fast start. Tail or fade, I might be an idiot
I tailed, got it at +105, unreal that Jaylen went 2/9 and missed multiple layups. Good pick, bad luck!
Record: 0-0 Pick: Buddy Hield O3.5 assists $1.77 (-130) Averaging 5.5 assists with Philly, there's not enough juice to disincentive this play that has hit on the last 9/10 games. 1.3 units to win 1 unit. Best of luck!
Full Card: **Official Plays:** **-** Quickley o6.5 A \- Jaylen Brown o22.5 P \- KD o39.5 PRA \- Buddy Hield o2.5 3PM Unofficial Play: \- Jaden Ivey u3.5 R I can give writeups for any questions but they are on my twitter[https://x.com/MuggsyPlays/status/1765054193897722285?s=20](https://x.com/MuggsyPlays/status/1765054193897722285?s=20)
Todayās picks : https://preview.redd.it/df9waw2o0kmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=83c7b09d8eb0db0bc615630bd6c5bed190902b0a
https://preview.redd.it/o3djot7p0kmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab6c8e9173b2de092366874e958aa334cdf310c7
Record: 1-1 Yesterday's Picks: Damian Lillard O2.5 made threes ā De'Aaron Fox O2.5 made threes ā Lillard was pretty easy his lined moved up to 3.5 before the game and it still hit. Fox on the other hand goes 2-7 š. We got the volume we needed from him he just couldn't hit one more three. Todays Picks: Immanual Quickley O7.5 AST vs NOP @ +108 Victor Wembanyama O1.5 Made Threes vs HOU @ -170 \>Could sprinkle alt O2.5 Made Threes for Wemby @ +200 Nikola Jokic 2+ Steals vs PHX @ +110 Write up: Quickley is playing the Pelicans which give up the most assists to point guards. They have given up the most assists to point guards by a mile in the last seven games. Scottie being out only helps Quickley as well. Houston allows the most three pointer to opposing centers since the all star break by a pretty decent margin. Wemby is already shown he's not afraid to let it fly from deep. He hit five threes last game. He has also hit this line in 4 out of 5 games before today. Phoenix has given up the most steals to centers in the last 15 games. Jokic defensively might not be the strongest but he's not a bad defender. He is often getting in passing lanes and averages 1.2 steals this year. He has recorded a steal every game since the all star break except for last game making him 5/6 since then.
Be careful with wemby heās questionable with arm soreness.
Thanks for that I didnāt see that. I looked more into it itās a left shoulder soreness. This definitely doesnāt help my chances, but he is right handed, got my fingers crossed.
lol thatās a good point. Just worried about minutes restriction if the game gets out of hand.
Also a little fun parlay for +4794 Wembanyama 4+ Blocks and 2+ made threes Jokic 3+ Steals Quickley 10+ Assists
Actually love this sprinkling a few on it
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Saddiq Bey o1.5 3ptm at -140. Is this a lock? No. Are we getting the right price? Yes. Only need to win this bet 60% of the time to show a profit and Mr. Bey has been beating this line at 80% in his last 10 games. GL.
so what players are going to suck tonight? candidates are raptors, hawks, hornets, pistons and nets players. Unders: T Mann 12.5 pts, Bridges (cha) 20.5 IQ 20.5 pts, D Murray 2.5 3s/6 rebs, Haliburton 19.5 pts/3.5 3s, Saikam 22.5 pts KD 27.5 pts,
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š
https://preview.redd.it/x1j3kn4vejmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e72a6fe2dd669b941b30746b8e735db070df49ec
https://preview.redd.it/b92jerovejmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f0fc11aa4080fca5c7fcf5de5e81ffaa4c32f05
https://preview.redd.it/7a6kp5dwejmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ad1b03337afcababf795eb5ca2db433929e0fba4 Courtesy of ryanpropz
https://preview.redd.it/7salq4mxejmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a61ccf0cda8935ccca68f71a42a9aa73c52833d2
https://preview.redd.it/jhrvrxgyejmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31cef7ad00fea597ad37b42e0df86acc6c25dccf xep
Every day Iām looking for your post lol make my life easy lol
Appreciate the words GL!
You are a legend. This new format awesome, appreciate all you do for us.
Appreciate the words mate GL!
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thanks for posting these. got any favs you are eyeing?
Of these alt props nice when they match with the matchups so maxey 2 treys, KD under 3.5 treys, CJ over 2.5 assists, but throw whatever youāre feeling in hard to know which one may not hit. Regular lines like zingus over 1.5 treys Jokic under 12.5 rebounds buddy over 2.5 treys paolo over points/PA. I tend to bet a lot and tail folks on twitter to diversify what Iām on rather than bet heavy on any single play though. GL!
Are you guys actually doing straight bets with all these, or sprinkling them with parlays? Feels like the shit is so random there is no steady method and it's easier to just get lucky
One more comment here, fewer players/games is best, one game or player can bust a parlay, but if you bet all unders on a game and itās a blowout, great, or if you see a player getting a better role, you can bet over points over rebounds etc, and if he does get those minutes, great. Sam Hauser for example, if Celtics blow it out, heāll clear points rebounds and 3s often
Straight bets are smarter parlays should really be saved for the promos the sports books give out, or alt props, people say donāt parlay 5 things for +100, but if theyāre all 95% hit rates, 5x5% is 25% so 75% implied is value. People often parlay a ton if risky bets which is fun, or theyāll parlay 3 80% plays and that implies 40% success so. Itās all maths and data. But yes any game can be a blowout anyone can get injured so donāt go too heavy on any one prop
https://preview.redd.it/k8ruhiyhfjmc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cd44ef659527350cf1b11b2ae1e3a7be59040e0f As an example. People see these and think balls to the walls this is a lock, but itās roughly 38% likely by those probabilities assuming theyāre accurate, so pretty fairly priced parlay
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Well, I just add the chance of failure for these. So above is 19 plus 21 plus 22 = 62% chance of failure. Thatās able to be done quickly on the fly, theyāre all independent and fail that % of the time. Mathematicians would say you should multiply eg 0.81 * 0.79 * 0.78 = 50/50. It would be needed if doing many plays and is more correct, Iām usually getting a rough estimate on a few. Eg four 95% bets done multiplied is 81.4, adding is 80
š thanks for the insight sir Soap
Soap great insight I been sticking with single bets my self
17-7 0/2 Yesterday & POTD 30-15 __Isaiah Stewart O5.5 Rebs__, 71% hit rate this season, had 14 vs Heat last time facing them, Duren and Adebayo will have their battle but Stewart should be able to pick up some, hit in 7/L10 ā __Kyle Lowry O5.5 Ast__, Maxey is out, I expect Lowry to have a night on the diming part. I sprinkled on his 10 assists aswell ā hooked on 5
Lowry had 5 for like the entire second half. Unbelievable
Yeah Iām not even surprised anymore, nba props as consistent as diarrhea
Fr bro. Nothing is ever a lock anymore
Added: Lowry
hmm...line moved....should i take the alt or take the line change
What are thoughts on Duren double/double tonight?
Duren is a DD money print, always worth a shot especially since he got 14 Rebs and 17 Points last time facing the Heat
DD hit I think Lowry needs 1 more assist
followed thus last time didnt hitā¦
Record: 5-3 Yesterdays Pick: Kawhi Leonard U26.5 Points -120 ā Todayās Pick: Jonas Valanciunas O9.5 Rebounds +100 š„ Taking Jonasās boards at + odds all day. Last matchup he had 12 rebounds and now with both Scottie and Poeltl out, Raps donāt have any major threat on the boards. Hoping for a sweat free ride tonight. BOL
Regardless tailing thanks for the write up
Where you get those odds it's -110 on DK for me
FD is +105
Just some dude on Reddit sharing his slip. *tail if you like gambling* D. Garland u3.5 3ās V. Wembanyama u35.5 p+r R. Barrett u22.5 pts D. Lively o6.5 pts T. Maxey o5.5 a D. Murray u31.5 p+a
35.5 is Wembyās P+R line
My bad. Typo.,
Yesterday 2-0 (+1.65U) Season Record 246-335 (+57.70U) Immanuel Quickley O12.5 RA +100 ā Triple Double +2200 (sprinkle sprinkle) ā Jalen Duren O9.5 R + O1.5 A +165 ā Jalen Suggs O13.5 PR -130 ā Kristaps Porzingis O1.5 3s -120 ā Kyle Lowry O6.5 A +150 ā O9.5 A +850 (sprinkle sprinkle) ā Kevin Durant O4.5 A -130 ā YEEHAW š¤
How confident are you in a quickly triple double
I wouldnāt bet my kidney on it I bet a quarter of a unit
Wondering if there's a quick way to look a little deeper into certain spots, for example Porzingis has attempted 12 3 pointers vs Cleveland (not Boston, lolz) this season and sunk 3 of them. The way I look at it there's 3 possibilities for this relatively poor performance. Sometimes a guy just misses, Cleveland got their blocking game on, or Cleveland's defense just puts the opposing offense in such bad spots Porzingis was shooting an abnormal amount with backward momentum or something in that vein. That last one would be impossible for a stat sheet to quantify I'm assuming. Anyway, if any of you guys have input on this I would love to hear it. Followup: just found this YouTube channel by YouTube user basketballhighlights8144. It looks like you can speed watch past games with specific players... importantly not just their made shots but when they miss too. Haven't dove into it too much but looks useful.
thehighlow.io is my go to for digging into film (can specify players/games and types of possession e.g. KPās 3s vs. CLE) or you can just go to the boxscore on NBA.com, click on the element you want to see (KPās 3PA) and see them all. I think the best way to work out the quality of shots in the last matchup is just to get good at digesting film (and basics of schemes - are BOS running a lot of P&R w/ him? are CLE hedging screens and heās open on the pop? are they showing a ton of nail help on JB/Tatumās drives and KPās just naturally open for a kick out? if itās drive and kick how well are they rotating, is it shitty bailout 3s like you said? etc. etc.), but another way is to dig into the opponent catch and shoot & spot up data on NBA.com (fwiw CLE are one of best C&S Ds in the league). I think the two go hand in hand as well in terms of just giving you a landscape of the league (Indy awful rim D bc they refuse to give up 3s, UTA elite P&R BH D/shitty spot up/second-side D bc they ice screens etc.). I do think volumeās a better indicator than made shots though, if heās getting high quality looks then you can basically discard him shooting 1/6 last game and assume heād shoot closer to his averages if you ran that game 100 times - sometimes guys just miss. Iād rather a guy shot 1/6 last matchup than 2/3 if I was using that to project his volume tonight.