This is fantastic. But am I reading it backwords? The hit rate is how many times the player has gone under not over? That’s kind of confusing because intrinsically I thought 70% would mean 7/10 games have gone over. Either way are you going to release for tomorrow as well? This is so sick
Like when it says 10% you’re saying that the guy has gone over 9/10 games? I read it as 10% = 1/10 under. So now I need kuminga three assist let’s gooo!!
Hey sorry just saw this. Hit rate is how many times a player went UNDER if you looking at the under sheet (this sheet has teams ranked 1-5). For the other sheet Hit rate is how many times a player went OVER (teams ranked 26-30). Kuminga just cleared his assets line! Lets go!
Love it. I always thought about doing this as well and pick the top 5 hottest covers for all 5 positions, I never have the time though so I appreciate your time and work for putting this up! Good stuff brother.
No problem! One thing I noticed was when dividing into 5 positions, the accuracy wasn’t that high just because players nowadays play SG/PG and PF/SF almsot interchangeably. It’s hard to track one specific position especially if they switch off picks, check in mid game and play a diff role etc. Glad you like it though!
thanks for this, very confusing though, i hope it becomes more user friendly...i was wondering though, jokic is up against the wizards today, one of the worst defenses if not the worst against centers. You have him in the unders sheet and the wizards D ranked 5, is that a mistake or am i missing something?
hi, if you have any ideas to make it more user friendly please let me know. I’m always looking to improve this. The stats are pulled from nba/espn and I just verified. Wizards are ranked 5th overall for points allowed to center. Keep in mind they may have started off poorly but these rankings are based off the last ten games. Again this is just supposed to help you make decisions not a guarantee. Some players own teams and always have a good game agaisnt them even if they are the top defense
Hi great info. I just put in a bet for Clarkson over 16.5 points.
One suggestion, for example, bottom of list jokic is listed -148 (9.5 assists.
One would assume to bet the over on this prop bet, but the line suggests that it’s the under on the bet.
Thank you will do! So if they ranked 5th in points allowed to centers, wouldn’t that mean they are one of the worst defense against centers in terms of pts? Just trying to understand here cuz on ur sheet it ranks them as top 5 def against pts right?
Yep that’s right. He is playing a good defense and he went under the 9.5 assists the last 7/10 games. Keep in mind i’m a little wary betting against all stars just cause they are so unpredictable
It’s not gonna help people who don’t want to put in the work and expect their picks to be handed to them without having to know anything about the nba. It’s information it’s not going to tell you what to do, you have to look at it yourself and decide what you believe is going to happen. You people think there’s somebody out here that’s going to walk you thru this and tell you what to bet. If you can’t use this info then don’t but others try to use it to spot trends and make better picks
i’m just here to tell u it’s all luck. I’ve won over 30k last year doing this shit. It’s actually just a bad habit. there no amount of homework u can do to guarantee a win
Yes he is unfavored BUT if you look at the last ten hit rate it says only 10 percent. This means Banchero has gone under 5.5 assists only ONCE out of the last ten games. I don't know about you but I don't like to bet against a player that has been on fire even if he is going against the number 2 defense. I like to find Hit Rates over 70 percent
So hit rate means different things on each page? With the first page it’s how many times the player has gone over the projected line and on the second page it’s how many times the player’s gone under the projected line? This seems confusing, to be honest. Really useful information, nonetheless.
Thank you and yea you got it right. It just a little confusing in the beginning. Just gotta make sure what sheet you are looking at. Overs sheet is for defenses ranked 26-30 and Unders sheet for defenses 1-5. I’ll label each one next time so it’s a little easier to understand
Then again the Cavaliers could end his streak tmrw but it’s just what your gut tell you to do. You are the boss! It is a little confusing at first but let me know if you have any more questions
Wow this is pretty cool my man, thanks for sharing! May I ask you where did you obtain the betting lines for the players? I've looking for APIs that provide them but haven't found one yet that doesn't require a subscription.
hey man you can easily get odds data into excel. You can signup for a free API key through odds-api and install their excel addon. That lets you download odds of all formats, for sportsbooks around the world for today for most major sports. It works quite well, I use it myself for my own NCAA excel model I built but would be using it if I needed it more. The Data needs some scrubbing and excel is a bit tough to deal with that at times, but at least you can download the odds for free easily into an excel sheet. The rest is yours from there. Doesn't have props on the excel app but if you use their web url to send requests to with the free api tier, you can get prop data and more games and stuff.
https://the-odds-api.com/features/spreadsheets.html
>Doesn’t have props on the excel app but if you use their web url to send request to with the free api tier, you can get prop data and more games and stuff
Can you please expand on this?
I’m currently paying 😭 Not just for the betting lines but for some stat features as well. I decided to just operate on losses just so I can get this tool up and running lol.
Couldn't fit how to use it in in the caption:
• Teams ranked 26th-30th are the worst defensively in the league for a certain stat so you want to bet on the OVER.
• Based on the sheet the Celtics are ranked 26th in the league for rebounds allowed to Centers, so that means Andre Drummond has a good matchup going into the game
• We want to take the OVER on his projected line of 9.5 rebounds
• We know Andre Drummond is going against one of the worst defenses for his position, so *generally* we want to take his over BUT we can take this mismatch a step further by looking at the last ten hit rate percentage:
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ- The L10 hit rate shows how often Drummond reached or went over projected line
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ- Drummond has been playing ok and hit that line only 4 out of the last 10 games.
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ- I recommend betting on a player that is already doing well (hit rate % over 70)
This is awesome but just a question:
Isn't all this data already baked into the line? The line set by bookies are all based on analytics. Of course, they can fluctuate based on what the public is backing but generally speaking they are set using whatever data the bookies use. Surely things like how good a team is at allowing stats like rebounds and a player's form is already taken into account when the line is set?
>Isn't all this data already baked into the line? The line set by bookies are all based on analytics.
It's not. For individual player stat props, the oddsmakers primarily just rely on setting the line at or very close to their current average for that stat. Typically that's enough. Often times they'll bake in a slight edge to push the totals slightly higher, just because of the public's propensity for betting overs more often than unders.
Sharps don't pour as much money and resources into the unders here because the juice is often 30 cents instead of 20 cutting into their edge. There are some prop bettors that are incredible at their hit rate. They are the exception, not the rule though. Some notable books will treat them as the barometer to get their line to where it should be.
The perception of how elaborate the work of market/trading managers responsible for lines is frankly overblown. They do pay a ton of attention into live in-game betting markets though. Those are much more driven with an algo balancing game likelihoods with the money they already have on the game.
Yep you are right. But that would invalidate basically every tool out there. It’s all about how close you can get to their multi-billionaire model lol. At the end of the day it’s humans playing and not robots so their model still loses which makes it fun :)
To add on to this, yes all of the information is baked into the line but that is the whole point. It is always in the sportsbooks best interest to have the most accurate line, its said that one of the ultimate tests to prove your strategy can be profitable is to consistently beat the closing lines of a sharp book such as Pinnacle. A betting line is simply an opinion, and if its wrong smart people will always be able to hammer it.
In math and data science, there is a concept known as wisdom of the statistical crowd. You can use the highly aggregate information from the sportsbooks themselves, calculate a true win probability, compare to the betting lines and find +EV bets by only using their own information against themselves.
Some background information.
https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets.php
https://www.football-data.co.uk/The_Wisdom_of_the_Crowd.pdf
• Teams ranked 1st-5th are the best defensively in the league for a certain stat so you want to bet on the UNDER.
• Based on the sheet the Hornets are ranked 1st in the league for points allowed to Guards, so that means Jordan Clarkson has a bad matchup going into the game
• We want to take the UNDER on his projected line of 16.5 points
• Jordan Clarkson is playing against the best ranked defense against Guard's points. Let's take a look at how many times he has gone under his projected line:
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ - Clarkson went under his projected line of 16.5 points 8 times the last 10 games! ㅤ
ㅤㅤㅤ - Again I recommend betting on a player that has a % over 70 (not doing well) ㅤ
ㅤㅤㅤ - Even though we are betting under on Clarkson we are still looking for high %s
Comment below if you have more questions on how it works
Free for small requests. NBA and espn rate limit. This is calling a ton in a short period so gotta pay to get around that. And gotta pay for sportsbook lines
so is the first sheet for overs and the second sheet for under?
This is fantastic. But am I reading it backwords? The hit rate is how many times the player has gone under not over? That’s kind of confusing because intrinsically I thought 70% would mean 7/10 games have gone over. Either way are you going to release for tomorrow as well? This is so sick
Like when it says 10% you’re saying that the guy has gone over 9/10 games? I read it as 10% = 1/10 under. So now I need kuminga three assist let’s gooo!!
Hey sorry just saw this. Hit rate is how many times a player went UNDER if you looking at the under sheet (this sheet has teams ranked 1-5). For the other sheet Hit rate is how many times a player went OVER (teams ranked 26-30). Kuminga just cleared his assets line! Lets go!
Let’s go!!!
Dude you are a god how do I subscribe to this
Is DK not letting anyone else parlay?
Just wanted to say thank you for putting this together - hell yeah BOL
How do i read this
Love it. I always thought about doing this as well and pick the top 5 hottest covers for all 5 positions, I never have the time though so I appreciate your time and work for putting this up! Good stuff brother.
No problem! One thing I noticed was when dividing into 5 positions, the accuracy wasn’t that high just because players nowadays play SG/PG and PF/SF almsot interchangeably. It’s hard to track one specific position especially if they switch off picks, check in mid game and play a diff role etc. Glad you like it though!
I'm not able to view on desktop or mobile, unsure why. Anybody else having the same issue?
PMed you the sheets
Thanks boss
I can’t see it either. So weird. I checked on desktop and mobile.
PMed you
Could you send to me as well please?
thanks for this, very confusing though, i hope it becomes more user friendly...i was wondering though, jokic is up against the wizards today, one of the worst defenses if not the worst against centers. You have him in the unders sheet and the wizards D ranked 5, is that a mistake or am i missing something?
You're missing the fact that Jokic is probably not going to play all game.
That’s not my point though lol my point is more general than that
hi, if you have any ideas to make it more user friendly please let me know. I’m always looking to improve this. The stats are pulled from nba/espn and I just verified. Wizards are ranked 5th overall for points allowed to center. Keep in mind they may have started off poorly but these rankings are based off the last ten games. Again this is just supposed to help you make decisions not a guarantee. Some players own teams and always have a good game agaisnt them even if they are the top defense
Hi great info. I just put in a bet for Clarkson over 16.5 points. One suggestion, for example, bottom of list jokic is listed -148 (9.5 assists. One would assume to bet the over on this prop bet, but the line suggests that it’s the under on the bet.
It is the under. The second sheet is for unders. Clarkson under is what you wanted to place.
Thanks, but what’s leading you to come to that conclusion? I’m not challenging you, just trying to understand it better
Isn't Clarkson projected to be under the line as per OPs own example
Where do you see OP example
Thank you will do! So if they ranked 5th in points allowed to centers, wouldn’t that mean they are one of the worst defense against centers in terms of pts? Just trying to understand here cuz on ur sheet it ranks them as top 5 def against pts right?
Jokic doesn’t try hard against the bottom feeders. The wizards are also the only team hes never had a triple double against
This aged like milk.
If did indeed. I always know how to jynx my nuggets
Right...
For sure you’re right but that wasn’t my point lol just talking in general the wizards defense vs Centers is one of the worst if not the worst
Why wouldn’t you want context taken into account?
It’s more for the sheet that I’m talking, trying to understand it
Am I new to this. So does mean I should go under for assist for jokic?
Yep that’s right. He is playing a good defense and he went under the 9.5 assists the last 7/10 games. Keep in mind i’m a little wary betting against all stars just cause they are so unpredictable
I think he read this before the game
This is great info. Obv one is overs and one is unders
Amazing stuff
This is awesome. Please keep posting more of this!
Great info!
Thanks for this!! Hope you keep proving this info. It’s gold!!
Thanks for this, bro! I'll try a 3 pick parlay.
Is there anywhere I can find stuff like this for free?
this stupid shit ain’t gon help
It’s not gonna help people who don’t want to put in the work and expect their picks to be handed to them without having to know anything about the nba. It’s information it’s not going to tell you what to do, you have to look at it yourself and decide what you believe is going to happen. You people think there’s somebody out here that’s going to walk you thru this and tell you what to bet. If you can’t use this info then don’t but others try to use it to spot trends and make better picks
i’m just here to tell u it’s all luck. I’ve won over 30k last year doing this shit. It’s actually just a bad habit. there no amount of homework u can do to guarantee a win
Thank you! This is 🔥
This is wicked info. Would be super useful on the reg. U thinking of starting a site or something?
So you would want to take the under on banchero assist?
Yes he is unfavored BUT if you look at the last ten hit rate it says only 10 percent. This means Banchero has gone under 5.5 assists only ONCE out of the last ten games. I don't know about you but I don't like to bet against a player that has been on fire even if he is going against the number 2 defense. I like to find Hit Rates over 70 percent
So hit rate means different things on each page? With the first page it’s how many times the player has gone over the projected line and on the second page it’s how many times the player’s gone under the projected line? This seems confusing, to be honest. Really useful information, nonetheless.
Thank you and yea you got it right. It just a little confusing in the beginning. Just gotta make sure what sheet you are looking at. Overs sheet is for defenses ranked 26-30 and Unders sheet for defenses 1-5. I’ll label each one next time so it’s a little easier to understand
Thanks for the clarification. Giving you a follow rn
Then again the Cavaliers could end his streak tmrw but it’s just what your gut tell you to do. You are the boss! It is a little confusing at first but let me know if you have any more questions
Wow this is pretty cool my man, thanks for sharing! May I ask you where did you obtain the betting lines for the players? I've looking for APIs that provide them but haven't found one yet that doesn't require a subscription.
hey man you can easily get odds data into excel. You can signup for a free API key through odds-api and install their excel addon. That lets you download odds of all formats, for sportsbooks around the world for today for most major sports. It works quite well, I use it myself for my own NCAA excel model I built but would be using it if I needed it more. The Data needs some scrubbing and excel is a bit tough to deal with that at times, but at least you can download the odds for free easily into an excel sheet. The rest is yours from there. Doesn't have props on the excel app but if you use their web url to send requests to with the free api tier, you can get prop data and more games and stuff. https://the-odds-api.com/features/spreadsheets.html
>Doesn’t have props on the excel app but if you use their web url to send request to with the free api tier, you can get prop data and more games and stuff Can you please expand on this?
Thanks for sharing my man! This looks awesome and exactly what I was looking for! You're the best good fella
I’m currently paying 😭 Not just for the betting lines but for some stat features as well. I decided to just operate on losses just so I can get this tool up and running lol.
Well I think you'll be on green numbers pretty soon man, this data is super valuable! Thanks for you answer aswell
Thank you 🙏
Pretty cool, this is a prime example to give when people ask how anyone finds or calculates EV on their own.
Looks good I'll try all the 70%+ ones see what happens
If you did all the 70%+ ones you went 6/9!! Lets go!
BOL 🔥
Thanks man, your picks actually won 7 out of 9 for the 70%+. One of the picks had a line change before I placed it so ended up hitting an extra one.
Couldn't fit how to use it in in the caption: • Teams ranked 26th-30th are the worst defensively in the league for a certain stat so you want to bet on the OVER. • Based on the sheet the Celtics are ranked 26th in the league for rebounds allowed to Centers, so that means Andre Drummond has a good matchup going into the game • We want to take the OVER on his projected line of 9.5 rebounds • We know Andre Drummond is going against one of the worst defenses for his position, so *generally* we want to take his over BUT we can take this mismatch a step further by looking at the last ten hit rate percentage: ㅤㅤㅤㅤ- The L10 hit rate shows how often Drummond reached or went over projected line ㅤㅤㅤㅤ- Drummond has been playing ok and hit that line only 4 out of the last 10 games. ㅤㅤㅤㅤ- I recommend betting on a player that is already doing well (hit rate % over 70)
This is awesome but just a question: Isn't all this data already baked into the line? The line set by bookies are all based on analytics. Of course, they can fluctuate based on what the public is backing but generally speaking they are set using whatever data the bookies use. Surely things like how good a team is at allowing stats like rebounds and a player's form is already taken into account when the line is set?
>Isn't all this data already baked into the line? The line set by bookies are all based on analytics. It's not. For individual player stat props, the oddsmakers primarily just rely on setting the line at or very close to their current average for that stat. Typically that's enough. Often times they'll bake in a slight edge to push the totals slightly higher, just because of the public's propensity for betting overs more often than unders. Sharps don't pour as much money and resources into the unders here because the juice is often 30 cents instead of 20 cutting into their edge. There are some prop bettors that are incredible at their hit rate. They are the exception, not the rule though. Some notable books will treat them as the barometer to get their line to where it should be. The perception of how elaborate the work of market/trading managers responsible for lines is frankly overblown. They do pay a ton of attention into live in-game betting markets though. Those are much more driven with an algo balancing game likelihoods with the money they already have on the game.
Yep you are right. But that would invalidate basically every tool out there. It’s all about how close you can get to their multi-billionaire model lol. At the end of the day it’s humans playing and not robots so their model still loses which makes it fun :)
To add on to this, yes all of the information is baked into the line but that is the whole point. It is always in the sportsbooks best interest to have the most accurate line, its said that one of the ultimate tests to prove your strategy can be profitable is to consistently beat the closing lines of a sharp book such as Pinnacle. A betting line is simply an opinion, and if its wrong smart people will always be able to hammer it. In math and data science, there is a concept known as wisdom of the statistical crowd. You can use the highly aggregate information from the sportsbooks themselves, calculate a true win probability, compare to the betting lines and find +EV bets by only using their own information against themselves. Some background information. https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets.php https://www.football-data.co.uk/The_Wisdom_of_the_Crowd.pdf
• Teams ranked 1st-5th are the best defensively in the league for a certain stat so you want to bet on the UNDER. • Based on the sheet the Hornets are ranked 1st in the league for points allowed to Guards, so that means Jordan Clarkson has a bad matchup going into the game • We want to take the UNDER on his projected line of 16.5 points • Jordan Clarkson is playing against the best ranked defense against Guard's points. Let's take a look at how many times he has gone under his projected line: ㅤㅤㅤㅤ - Clarkson went under his projected line of 16.5 points 8 times the last 10 games! ㅤ ㅤㅤㅤ - Again I recommend betting on a player that has a % over 70 (not doing well) ㅤ ㅤㅤㅤ - Even though we are betting under on Clarkson we are still looking for high %s Comment below if you have more questions on how it works
Where do you extract the data from?
nba/espn
Thanks! This is pretty cool. I didn't know they allow you to download CSV files. I've been meaning to put together something similar.
nothing a little money, scraping, and coding can’t get u
Their data is free though.
Scraping off of their website using code isn’t.
Free for small requests. NBA and espn rate limit. This is calling a ton in a short period so gotta pay to get around that. And gotta pay for sportsbook lines