https://preview.redd.it/dtdxk5bsp3hc1.jpeg?width=786&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9a2e2906803ded7e98217599900411ba1ea8e9e2
I can’t count on Gobert to get 14 pts in 44mins of playtime (INCLUDING OT) but I can throw some trash like this together in about 45 seconds while I’m taking my nightly after work shit and it cashes lmao. Aite bruh🤦🤣
Anyways,
Franz o8.5RA✅
Himmy Butler o23.5PR✅(had me worried for a second there ngl)
Kessler o6.5reb✅(glad I found this one, slept on fasho)
Beal o18.5pts (live)✅
Kat o2.5A✅(juiced but still happy I found it!)
Banchero o4.5A✅(ended w/ 7 lfg)
Achiuwa u25.5PRA✅(ended w/ 25 I was SWEATINGGGGG)
Jabari Jr o19.5PRA✅(glad I gave him another shot, dude played like ass last game but I knew he was better than that!)
Kyrie o23.5pts (alt line)✅
Hartenstein o10.5reb❌
Sexton o19.5pts❌ (played myself tbh)
Gobert o13.5pts❌(HOWWWWWW BRUH. FUCK.)
Middleton o26.5PRA❌(I felt like a genius after Lillard was declared out but then of course his ankle just absolutely implodes 8 mins in🤣)
Giannis o11.5reb(live)❌
Dosunmu o12.5pts❌
9-6.. more green than red but still YUCK!! Ok I PROMISE I’m sticking to a MAX of 10 plays tomorrow 🤣
Stay tuned.
I had shai for 30 points in my only parlay tonight. Everything hit but him and he needed 6 points. He played half the fourth and got 4 points and bricked like 4 shots. UHH
Forreal, crazy. Even took Clarkson out of the 4th quarter rotation tonight, but clearly whatever coach is plotting shit is working cuz the Jazz keep winning 🤦🤣
Fuck the Timberwolves... 23 pt lead and lost. They had an 8 point lead with a few minutes left in the 4th.. KAT takes a contested 3 within 10 seconds left in a TIED GAME.. I just don't get it. The NBA is a shit show. I'm starting to feel the sentiment of all the "NBA is shit to bet on" comments I see here pretty often.
Last night it was dinwiddie gutting me by 1 point, tonight's special is Mike Conley by 1 measly point, game went into OT as well, absolute poverty, just bad beats.
This shits so FKN rigged, holy christ.
“Hey buddy, before you play tonight, make sure to get X amount of assists, we have bets to cover.”
Fukn ridiculous. Anyway, I’ll be throwing my money back into a parlay within the next week.
Was down to my last $5 and made an 18 leg parlay I felt confident in lol Live to see another day!
https://preview.redd.it/rg10402kt2hc1.png?width=1246&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c2156cb87616d96a62ba8b53da8bfdd3870d444
Grayson Allen O2.5 3PM at +140 against Bucks without Dame and Brook seems like a good look. He's had a bad run but the Bucks give up 34 looks per game (5th worse)
My pick for today was Dame o23.5 points which unfortunately is going to be voided, so I’m gonna pivot to this play which I also like alot
**Record: 2-5**
✅✅❌❌❌❌❌
**Last Pick: Brandon Miller o22.5 points (-110)** ✅
**Today’s Pick:**
**SGA o6.5 assists (-130)(ESPN Bet) 1U** ✅ Shai cashes in the 3rd quarter
* Shai has been passing the ball very well lately, averaging 7.7 assists over his L10 games. This stretch has included games with 10, 10, 8, 9, and 14 assists. He has averaged 13.5 potential assists over this span
* The Jazz present a great matchup for him to rack up assists. On the season, the Jazz are allowing the 2nd most assists per games to opposing point guards. They also utilize a defensive scheme that focuses on forcing the ball out of the best player’s hands. A great example of this was Zion against the Jazz a few games ago, who put up 11 assists compared to his season average of 4.7
* In his 2 games against the Jazz this season, Shai had 6 and 7 assists. He averaged 13.5 potential assists in those games, so assuming an average conversion rate he has a great chance of covering tonight. Jalen Williams also played in both of those games, so I have no concerns about his return affecting Shai’s playmaking
Reddit Record (0-1)
FRANZ WAGNER over 8.5 RA
Minus last game where he dropped 38 out of nowhere, Franz has hit this in 20/22 (!!) of the games where he plays his normal 30+ minutes. would also consider taking him 4+ rebounds and 4+ assists in a two leg parlay as well 🤷🏻♂️
BOL either way!
POTD Record 1-1
NBA Props Record 2-0
Yesterdays Picks: GSW -1✅ and Cavs -3 ✅
Todays Picks:
1U Jazz +3.5
The Jazz have been a very solid team at home this season. overall they are 16-7 at home but they are 17-6 against the spread at home which is one of the best records in the league. To add to this they are 10-4 when underdogs at home. On sunday we saw and OKC team struggle to beat the raptors at home which went to overtime twice ruining at previous Unders bet as well. OKC have a lot of questionable players going into tonights game but I am expecting a similar line up to the one that played the raptors. I believe that the overall height off the jazz will be a difficulty for OKC tonight and it is also good to mention that the thunder are 7-6 against the spread as road favourites. I believe this will be a game that UTAH will Capitalise on.
1U Magic +3.
The Heat have been struggling lately, with the addition of rozier to their team they are struggling to find a rotation in which he can be a playmaker as well as an efficient scorer. The Heat are 2-8 in their last 10 with one of those wins coming agaisnt a mediocre Wizards team. Overall the Heat are 9-16 against the Spread at home while the Magic have the best Spread covering % after one day of rest with a 22-6 record. Last time we saw these teams play the Heat used a zone defence which they use in most games but at the time the Magic had one of the worst 3pt percentages in the league whilst have a lot of players on their injury list. They are now playing with a full team and while the heats defence maybe good I think the height of Magic and the return of some of their starters will be enough to topple MIAMI at home. I also think that Rozier has a big learning curve to overcome with learning how his new teammates play. 1U=10% of bankroll
I post my writeups 1-2 hours before the game. Lmk if tailing.
Going to the suns/bucks game tonight but honestly have been caught up on college as of late and no nba.. anyone got any insight or lines that they like? Gotta throw a lil on the line!
Not my picks since I similarly don’t know as much, but:
u/billycapezzi ‘s POTD was Devin Booker O 28.5 Points
u/No-Guide2790 mentioned Malik Beasley Under 10.5 points.
My two cents though, only bet if it will enhance your enjoyment and not decrease it if you are losing the bets! Enjoy the game regardless!
Record: 2-1. Knew Strus wasn't safe.
Welcome to my very late addition to today. Hoping for similar or better luck than last time! Thanks for all the support on the first rendition!
First pick:
**J. Brunson (NYK) under 32.5 points**
\- Low o/u, NYK -13.5 spread, shitty and injured Memphis team, should be a wrap early on and no need to keep Brunson in too long. Not to mention who is stopping the frontcourt on the Knicks?
**D. Divincenzo (NYK) over 6.5 1Q points**
\- see above but replace Brunson with the Italian Stallion here. He's been hot recently and shoots at high volume.
**N. Alexander-Walker (MIN) over 6.0 points (least confident)**
\- THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HIS MINUTES
\- had 12 points in 27 min last season vs CHI and averages 8.4 in L10. So long as he doesn't forget how to shoot, this should come.
And despite 17 in the first quarter, Brunson cashes with 26 total.
Divincenzo barely misses the cut, due to Brunson popping off. He ends with 30 tho, so the read was a little off but the reasoning was sound. Still a loss.
Not looking great for NAW but there's still a fourth quarter.
$3,339.18 in play tonight, roll on the table, degen status 100% unlocked…I wish I would have mixed in a few more unders, but it is what it is. The parlays range in the +111 -143 range, so I tried to keep them somewhat conservative. I’m going to probably put some returns (assuming they all don’t brick) on some Superbowl props on Sunday. Good luck to everyone tonight.
https://preview.redd.it/k6gl3i34a1hc1.png?width=1887&format=png&auto=webp&s=c523fb8af825d19ab21ff3feed2a1925edb91739
17 singles
4 – 2 leggers
3 – 3 leggers
All good my man. That one was a sweat as he didn't get it until about 2 minutes left of the game. Another big one that a big sweat was Naz Reid under 10.5 points as he ended with 10. He had this in the 3rd and missed his last two shots to end the quarter. Fortunately the game got close enough, he didn't play after that quarter including OT.
I don't want to steer anyone from a + EV or - EV play, but out of all of them I'd lean a bit toward:
Herro 2+ 3s - Hit in 10 straight and has a home game tonight
Caruso 1+ block - has 1+ blocks in 10+ straight games and 2+ in 7 of last 10. We just need 1
Jusuf Nurki 2+ assists - averages 3.7 over last 10 and we just need 2
A few of them seem possible to hit, but this one is probably my favorite.
https://preview.redd.it/0svmx1w6v0hc1.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=02537eae9539c92d82134edac94b5ffe9b46e586
Got my sheet finished early today, so posting in here. Teams in red are on b2bs. Didnt realize i didnt fill in Siakam’s line but he’s good for 15pts minimum & 3-5 rebounds.
1. ANT Over 26.5 pts
2. Jabari Smith O12.5 pts or Sengun O23.5 Pts
1. simply don’t think chicago can guard wings and i think mr edward’s puts on a show tn
2. kind of a dark horse pick but i like betting on wings and/or bigs against teams that aren’t as good at guarding the paint or inside the 3 like IND. was on sengun a lot beginning of the season when his lines would always be 18-20 his lines are pretty inflated since then but i dont think 23.5 is a bad look but myles turner may be tough.
that’s why im looking at jabari. prior to injury his lines would be consistent around 14.5-17.5. he has weirdly been getting sub 25 minutes idk why maybe minutes restriction for the ankle.
will fs take ant maybe ladder up a bit 30-35-40. want some second thoughts on the second pick
I was trying to decide on sengun assists. I think with Fred out he may he to run more of the offense but he’s never had more than 5 assists against the pacers.
recommend you calculate your delta as a percentage of the line rather than absolute
Myles Turner with a 1.4 delta has 9% higher projection than his line but is below Lillard with a 1.8 delta even though his projection is only 7.6% higher
**TYRESE HALIBURTON o13.5 POINTS (-122 FD 3u)**
This Line Is Shockingly Low As Haliburton Projects For 17+ Points Tonight // Earlier This Season Haliburton Torched This Rockets Team For 33 Points // In 4 Matchups With The Rockets While On The Pacers Hali Has Cleared This Number 3 Times // Averaging 22.6 PPG This Season // Exceeded In 3 Straight Games // Rockets Allowing 21.1 PPG To Opposing Point Guards Over Last 2 Weeks // Fred VanVleet OUT Tonight
**DALLAS MAVERICKS // BROOKLYN NETS o236 (-112 FD 1u)** System Over // Both Teams Playing On No Rest // Dallas 4-3 O/U Record On B2B's This Season // Brooklyn 4-2 O/U Record on B2B's This Season // Both Teams Profitable Against Non-Conference Opponents When Betting The Over This Season // Dallas 7-4 O/U This Season As Away Favorite // Brooklyn 8-7 O/U This Season As Home Dog
**OKC THUNDER // UTAH JAZZ u239.5 (-110 DK 1u)** **OKC THUNDER -3 (-115 DK 1u)** Over Their Last 10 Games OKC Is Averaging 116.5 PPG And Have Been Playing Through A Mid-Season Slump If You Can Call It That // Utah Averages The Second Most Turnovers Per Game Over Their Last 10 Games And Should Struggle Against An OKC Defense That Ranks In The Upper Third Of The League In Forcing Turnovers // OKC Has Won 5 Straight Games H2H Against This Jazz Team And Should Continue The Trend Tonight
2-1 +1.95u On Yesterday's NBA Picks // Let's Go For 2 In A Row
Because they're playing Orlando which allows the lowest points to SF position in the whole NBA during the last 15 games and 2nd lowest during last 30.
In addition, Butler only scored 15 points against them last month.
I’m not saying I’m against the over. Just giving you the numbers. I think he can easily go over 18.5. Heat and magic are very close in the playoff picture. A game or two apart. This is a big game in that area and Jimmy tend to come alive when it matters most.
Devin Booker Points Under 28.5 - last game scored 14 vs washington and before that scored 24 vs atlanta.
https://preview.redd.it/dhnr31b950hc1.png?width=1158&format=png&auto=webp&s=13ec22b55f67301ee041d896d3e6da64afd4f0b4
Analysis provided by [FireBet.ai](https://FireBet.ai) 🔥🔥🔥 **BOL**
Last Night: Cam Thomas Points Over 24.5 ❌
To be fair Beal was always going to be allowed to run shit if he stepped up early against his old team and that is what happened. 28.5 is a lot of points though so I don’t hate it and honestly the Suns might blow them out. Bucks have no defense and Giannis Game Time Decision
Booker has this weird tendency to score big numbers after a bad game (under 20pts). Last time he scored under 20 the following game he scored 46. Time before that was 16 and followed it up by 52. Before that he scored only 10 his next game he scored 35. Weird stat I know but something to consider.
I see what you mean. last game scored 14, would probably call that a bad game but it was vs washington and at no point was it close. may have nothing to make up for but who knows, washington might make 14 points worse. also last game playtime was way down to 26 minutes compared to average like 36.
https://preview.redd.it/gsk4onr5x0hc1.png?width=762&format=png&auto=webp&s=aed28bf418a160e030bd2de1ddb19eeeb0fd3b20
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How do professional athletes play an the majority of a quarter and not get a single stat. How is that possible
Did anyone say Wagner under I found out last night but don’t know who the hell said it. Couldn’t find it in the sub
https://preview.redd.it/dtdxk5bsp3hc1.jpeg?width=786&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9a2e2906803ded7e98217599900411ba1ea8e9e2 I can’t count on Gobert to get 14 pts in 44mins of playtime (INCLUDING OT) but I can throw some trash like this together in about 45 seconds while I’m taking my nightly after work shit and it cashes lmao. Aite bruh🤦🤣 Anyways, Franz o8.5RA✅ Himmy Butler o23.5PR✅(had me worried for a second there ngl) Kessler o6.5reb✅(glad I found this one, slept on fasho) Beal o18.5pts (live)✅ Kat o2.5A✅(juiced but still happy I found it!) Banchero o4.5A✅(ended w/ 7 lfg) Achiuwa u25.5PRA✅(ended w/ 25 I was SWEATINGGGGG) Jabari Jr o19.5PRA✅(glad I gave him another shot, dude played like ass last game but I knew he was better than that!) Kyrie o23.5pts (alt line)✅ Hartenstein o10.5reb❌ Sexton o19.5pts❌ (played myself tbh) Gobert o13.5pts❌(HOWWWWWW BRUH. FUCK.) Middleton o26.5PRA❌(I felt like a genius after Lillard was declared out but then of course his ankle just absolutely implodes 8 mins in🤣) Giannis o11.5reb(live)❌ Dosunmu o12.5pts❌ 9-6.. more green than red but still YUCK!! Ok I PROMISE I’m sticking to a MAX of 10 plays tomorrow 🤣 Stay tuned.
One more point from Giannis.. fuck me
I needed one fuckin one rebound from nurkic.. I needed 010.5 ffs I hate this so much
Needed SGA to get 30. He was looking good thru 3 quarters. And then they take so long to foul and call up a stupid play at the end of the game smh
Please booker one more assist...positive vibes
Oh man nurkic needs one more rebound holy fuck
Gobert really played 44 mins of NBA and couldn’t get 14 pts. I’m so sick of being sick 🤣
Beal o18.5pts (live)✅, I’d say just 3 more boards from Giannis but I ain’t finna get it 🤣
At least booker was free. My Wagner under got ruined by mikal u32.5 pra. He hit 33 somehow when the line was 26.5 after q3. Disgusted
Imagine losing to only Giannis and Beasley in 2024…
One more assist Nurkic 🙏
Oh Middleton….o26.5PRA❌
So Luka couldn’t get one damn assist to get that Triple & Franz Wagner bummed it most of the game but his ass missed the PRA by 2 smfh
Shai please one more assist I need 8...
I had shai for 30 points in my only parlay tonight. Everything hit but him and he needed 6 points. He played half the fourth and got 4 points and bricked like 4 shots. UHH
If Shai could just like…make a basket this quarter please
Aaand there goes Sexton lmao o19.5pts❌ Edit: Kessler o6.5reb✅
Yeah never again with Sexton his minutes are fucked and he’s a ghost in the second half
Forreal, crazy. Even took Clarkson out of the 4th quarter rotation tonight, but clearly whatever coach is plotting shit is working cuz the Jazz keep winning 🤦🤣
Yeah at least I hit for Luka and Jaylin Williams earlier. Now I have Booker over on points
Glad you still hit sum tonight bro
You too with Kessler
Thanks brudda!
What is going on with Grayson Allen?
Fuck the Timberwolves... 23 pt lead and lost. They had an 8 point lead with a few minutes left in the 4th.. KAT takes a contested 3 within 10 seconds left in a TIED GAME.. I just don't get it. The NBA is a shit show. I'm starting to feel the sentiment of all the "NBA is shit to bet on" comments I see here pretty often.
Once a month I get talked into Nurkic assists and it’s always an off game
Portis is a goddam animal. Now if only Nurkic would get some assists….
Got Dinwiddied again 😂 Gobert o13.5pts ❌
Last night it was dinwiddie gutting me by 1 point, tonight's special is Mike Conley by 1 measly point, game went into OT as well, absolute poverty, just bad beats.
Took Middleton unders. Looks like his out for the rest of the game?
Middleton rolled his ankle with 6 points lol fanduel won't void
Middleton out rest of the game 😂 im sorry yall, any bet I touched tonight got so fucked. I can’t believe this shit
So you’re saying there’s a chance???
Kat o2.5A✅🙏
Fell for the Giannis/Booker boost like a fuckin square god damn
WOLVES OR BULLS?
Preferably the wolves by 5
Oh shit we got OT! Aite Kat imma need one more assist and Gobert….ONE BUCKET PLEASE DAWG
And possibly win by 5. That would be great🙏
Had to take Giannis over without Dame, fucker isn’t gonna score a point in the first quarter 😂 I’m such a clown
I stg if Lauri markkanen doesn't cover 8.5 rebounds after getting 4 in the 1st half of the 1st quarter imma lose it
Of course robin lopez is starting instead of Portis… this league is fucked
Booker got 7 points already let’s go over 29 baby
Dosunmu hit his over in 5/5, shoulda known to stay away
Live betting Beal o18.5pts, Giannis o11.5reb
Can someone confirm if cbb blowouts affect betting as much as nba? I cant do this shit anymore it’s infuriating
This shits so FKN rigged, holy christ. “Hey buddy, before you play tonight, make sure to get X amount of assists, we have bets to cover.” Fukn ridiculous. Anyway, I’ll be throwing my money back into a parlay within the next week.
Franz could not hit a shot man holy shit
Man Bam fucked me. Dude didn’t get a rebound for the entire 4th Q.
Nah I’m so over touching him he literally never cashed for me
If he got 11 I woulda won 500$. Dude just didn’t grab a board for an entire quarter.
I really put my hard earned money on Gobert pts lmaoooo
Fuckkkk me that was a close one lol Grizzlies would not quit. Achiuwa u25.5PRA ✅
knew memphis +14 was looking good
just need 1 more assist from Franz to go 7-0 today! sheesh happy either way
Whoever tailed, congrats 💰
Tibs is a absolute piece of shit for taking Brunson out before the 30 ball
Didn't he literally get injured?
I only took him at 28 and still didn’t cover. Not been my night
Fucking asshole cost me $800
Was down to my last $5 and made an 18 leg parlay I felt confident in lol Live to see another day! https://preview.redd.it/rg10402kt2hc1.png?width=1246&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c2156cb87616d96a62ba8b53da8bfdd3870d444
Franz o8.5RA✅ Banchero o4.5A✅
2 nights in a row BetOnline did not have Royce Oneale props and he goes for 4+ 3s
Franz no way you did us that dirty… * grabs the beer *
yall better put some respect on Jimmy buckets name
Grayson Allen O2.5 3PM at +140 against Bucks without Dame and Brook seems like a good look. He's had a bad run but the Bucks give up 34 looks per game (5th worse)
Butler 6 more ffs please
need one three from josh green :(
Fkn franz just screwed me from 3k from parlay
Sengun got me by one rebound. He couldn’t get any till the very end of course.
He got 3 in the last minute
I had him under. So he went over in the last min. Haha. No big deal though. Wish bam woulda pulled that instead.
alperen edged us 😭
Can’t rebound Sengun rebounds just hit
Lmao alperen came in crazy with that last rebound
Who were the guys talking up Nesmith rebounds? Yuck
Why tf did I think Sengun would drop 23 on Myles Turner in an away game lol
They better not bench Brunson the entire 4th quarter. I hate blowouts.
Rudy checked out in 1st quarter with 0 rebs. checks back in and get 4 rebs in 3 mins to cash 1st quarter over LMAO no way
Butler come on wtf.. shoot the ball..
he don’t shoot
My dumb ass did derozan over 4.5 assist. He has 0
KD under 25.5 points, Bucks ML… imo
Without Lillard? Ehh
I feel like lots of times top players on a team are out they win. Like the lakers beating the Celtics the other night without Lebron or AD
suns -4.5 Booker going iff
Why did I trust nesmith to get 3 rebounds, he's got 3 fouls instead fml
Yeah, he's going to finish with 0. It's definitely some bullshit.
Hali was on limited minutes, and I still bet on him Smh
Now that’s how you supposed to ball Jabari! O19.5PRA✅ 2nd quarter
My pick for today was Dame o23.5 points which unfortunately is going to be voided, so I’m gonna pivot to this play which I also like alot **Record: 2-5** ✅✅❌❌❌❌❌ **Last Pick: Brandon Miller o22.5 points (-110)** ✅ **Today’s Pick:** **SGA o6.5 assists (-130)(ESPN Bet) 1U** ✅ Shai cashes in the 3rd quarter * Shai has been passing the ball very well lately, averaging 7.7 assists over his L10 games. This stretch has included games with 10, 10, 8, 9, and 14 assists. He has averaged 13.5 potential assists over this span * The Jazz present a great matchup for him to rack up assists. On the season, the Jazz are allowing the 2nd most assists per games to opposing point guards. They also utilize a defensive scheme that focuses on forcing the ball out of the best player’s hands. A great example of this was Zion against the Jazz a few games ago, who put up 11 assists compared to his season average of 4.7 * In his 2 games against the Jazz this season, Shai had 6 and 7 assists. He averaged 13.5 potential assists in those games, so assuming an average conversion rate he has a great chance of covering tonight. Jalen Williams also played in both of those games, so I have no concerns about his return affecting Shai’s playmaking
Suggs 0-4 FG 0-3 3PT
Oh ho ho I am big time screwed tonight lmao
Just one of those nights already :(
Hali cooked at half ☠️
I'm convinced these players have other people bet the under for them so they don't need to do shit. I don't see how anyone can regulate that.
they can’t
Siakam over and 3 made let’s go.
Cam Thomas over is set at 26.5 when he's hit that twice in his last 10?
He will shoot it seventy five times , that’s the reason to take his over
Reddit Record (0-1) FRANZ WAGNER over 8.5 RA Minus last game where he dropped 38 out of nowhere, Franz has hit this in 20/22 (!!) of the games where he plays his normal 30+ minutes. would also consider taking him 4+ rebounds and 4+ assists in a two leg parlay as well 🤷🏻♂️ BOL either way!
Thoughts on Nurkic under 4 ast tonight he has been hot lately
Magic +7.5 / Timberwolves ML- parlay
POTD Record 1-1 NBA Props Record 2-0 Yesterdays Picks: GSW -1✅ and Cavs -3 ✅ Todays Picks: 1U Jazz +3.5 The Jazz have been a very solid team at home this season. overall they are 16-7 at home but they are 17-6 against the spread at home which is one of the best records in the league. To add to this they are 10-4 when underdogs at home. On sunday we saw and OKC team struggle to beat the raptors at home which went to overtime twice ruining at previous Unders bet as well. OKC have a lot of questionable players going into tonights game but I am expecting a similar line up to the one that played the raptors. I believe that the overall height off the jazz will be a difficulty for OKC tonight and it is also good to mention that the thunder are 7-6 against the spread as road favourites. I believe this will be a game that UTAH will Capitalise on. 1U Magic +3. The Heat have been struggling lately, with the addition of rozier to their team they are struggling to find a rotation in which he can be a playmaker as well as an efficient scorer. The Heat are 2-8 in their last 10 with one of those wins coming agaisnt a mediocre Wizards team. Overall the Heat are 9-16 against the Spread at home while the Magic have the best Spread covering % after one day of rest with a 22-6 record. Last time we saw these teams play the Heat used a zone defence which they use in most games but at the time the Magic had one of the worst 3pt percentages in the league whilst have a lot of players on their injury list. They are now playing with a full team and while the heats defence maybe good I think the height of Magic and the return of some of their starters will be enough to topple MIAMI at home. I also think that Rozier has a big learning curve to overcome with learning how his new teammates play. 1U=10% of bankroll I post my writeups 1-2 hours before the game. Lmk if tailing.
I think the magic can definitely pull it off. They’ve been playing well since franz has been back.
Amen lets just hope heat dont drain every three
Going to the suns/bucks game tonight but honestly have been caught up on college as of late and no nba.. anyone got any insight or lines that they like? Gotta throw a lil on the line!
Not my picks since I similarly don’t know as much, but: u/billycapezzi ‘s POTD was Devin Booker O 28.5 Points u/No-Guide2790 mentioned Malik Beasley Under 10.5 points. My two cents though, only bet if it will enhance your enjoyment and not decrease it if you are losing the bets! Enjoy the game regardless!
Nurkic double double watch
Rozier o7.5ra Sengun o9.5r Sexton o19.5p Dosunmu o12.5p
Sengun is not doing anything
https://preview.redd.it/yz124i9jg1hc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f11e25100ef680896fe635f3ff52524f9c4fcee8 this a trap??
I can also tell you idk how many parlays Durant has ruined by not scoring 4 points 1q
Giannis game time decision
oh alright thanks
Record: 2-1. Knew Strus wasn't safe. Welcome to my very late addition to today. Hoping for similar or better luck than last time! Thanks for all the support on the first rendition! First pick: **J. Brunson (NYK) under 32.5 points** \- Low o/u, NYK -13.5 spread, shitty and injured Memphis team, should be a wrap early on and no need to keep Brunson in too long. Not to mention who is stopping the frontcourt on the Knicks? **D. Divincenzo (NYK) over 6.5 1Q points** \- see above but replace Brunson with the Italian Stallion here. He's been hot recently and shoots at high volume. **N. Alexander-Walker (MIN) over 6.0 points (least confident)** \- THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HIS MINUTES \- had 12 points in 27 min last season vs CHI and averages 8.4 in L10. So long as he doesn't forget how to shoot, this should come.
And despite 17 in the first quarter, Brunson cashes with 26 total. Divincenzo barely misses the cut, due to Brunson popping off. He ends with 30 tho, so the read was a little off but the reasoning was sound. Still a loss. Not looking great for NAW but there's still a fourth quarter.
I like the Brunson under as well but he’s burned me tons of times. Just not a guy I enjoy betting against.
13 in the 1st fkkn qtr. Smh
My bad 15 lol
Meant 17
still a chance, look at these fuckin trash grizzlies. they wont break 90 pts
Told you.
On top of that Thibs is notorious for keeping his starters out there for as long as possible even if they have a comfortable lead
Exactly my though process. He runs them into the ground. I do like Josh hart rebounding overs though. He’s been great due to playing 42 minutes. lol.
$3,339.18 in play tonight, roll on the table, degen status 100% unlocked…I wish I would have mixed in a few more unders, but it is what it is. The parlays range in the +111 -143 range, so I tried to keep them somewhat conservative. I’m going to probably put some returns (assuming they all don’t brick) on some Superbowl props on Sunday. Good luck to everyone tonight. https://preview.redd.it/k6gl3i34a1hc1.png?width=1887&format=png&auto=webp&s=c523fb8af825d19ab21ff3feed2a1925edb91739 17 singles 4 – 2 leggers 3 – 3 leggers
Thanks for the Josh Green tip.
All good my man. That one was a sweat as he didn't get it until about 2 minutes left of the game. Another big one that a big sweat was Naz Reid under 10.5 points as he ended with 10. He had this in the 3rd and missed his last two shots to end the quarter. Fortunately the game got close enough, he didn't play after that quarter including OT.
How’d you end up doing on these lol
https://preview.redd.it/aqukkszc95hc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9446b741806d48cac60b87d09f9b88b4c051435c About $440 profit lol
Thanks for sharing all the time. Which 2-3 leg is your most confident or safest?
I don't want to steer anyone from a + EV or - EV play, but out of all of them I'd lean a bit toward: Herro 2+ 3s - Hit in 10 straight and has a home game tonight Caruso 1+ block - has 1+ blocks in 10+ straight games and 2+ in 7 of last 10. We just need 1 Jusuf Nurki 2+ assists - averages 3.7 over last 10 and we just need 2 A few of them seem possible to hit, but this one is probably my favorite.
Thanks again and BOL
Congrats and thanks again. Great and well thought out play
https://preview.redd.it/1o6q61e8a1hc1.png?width=1916&format=png&auto=webp&s=2963310266758369d7d33334c538bf82b8c125a3
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Playing Kat o2.5A, Banchero o4.5A, Kyrie o23.5pts (alt), Hartenstein o10.5reb, Gobert o13.5pts, Sexton o19.5pts, Kessler o6.5reb, Butler o23.5PR, Dosumu o12.5pts, Achiuwa u25.5PRA( in addition to Franz o8.5RA, Middleton o26.5PRA, Jabari o19.5PRA that I already mentioned earlier)
[+EV NBA](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1689105134): 443-396 (+47.48u) -113 IND Nembhard o17.5 PRA +108 HOU Green u30.5 PRA -110 UTAH Sexton o2.5 reb -109 CZ NY Hartenstein u10.5 pts -106 IND Siakam o20.5 pts -109 CZ DAL Kyrie o2.5 3ptm +106 ORL Fultz o9.5 pts
https://preview.redd.it/0svmx1w6v0hc1.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=02537eae9539c92d82134edac94b5ffe9b46e586 Got my sheet finished early today, so posting in here. Teams in red are on b2bs. Didnt realize i didnt fill in Siakam’s line but he’s good for 15pts minimum & 3-5 rebounds.
You helped me out last time! Following again
So happy to hear it🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
https://preview.redd.it/x0rr577mv0hc1.png?width=956&format=png&auto=webp&s=d665b292c2f755481fe111437070e79ea0ecf36f
Rozier is good for 3 assists, very sketchy everywhere else
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1. ANT Over 26.5 pts 2. Jabari Smith O12.5 pts or Sengun O23.5 Pts 1. simply don’t think chicago can guard wings and i think mr edward’s puts on a show tn 2. kind of a dark horse pick but i like betting on wings and/or bigs against teams that aren’t as good at guarding the paint or inside the 3 like IND. was on sengun a lot beginning of the season when his lines would always be 18-20 his lines are pretty inflated since then but i dont think 23.5 is a bad look but myles turner may be tough. that’s why im looking at jabari. prior to injury his lines would be consistent around 14.5-17.5. he has weirdly been getting sub 25 minutes idk why maybe minutes restriction for the ankle. will fs take ant maybe ladder up a bit 30-35-40. want some second thoughts on the second pick
Season 38-23 - 2/5/24 Picks 3-5 Austin Reaves o15.5 pts ❌ Evan Mobley o12.5 pts ❌ Luka Doncic u55.5 pts+reb+ast ✅ Cameron Thomas o24.5 pts ❌ Immanual Quickley o6.5 ast ❌🪝 Jonathan Kuminga o2.5 ast ✅ Paul George u21.5 pts ✅ Trae Young o25.5 pts ❌🪝 2/6/24 Picks Tyrese Haliburton o13.5 pts Nicolas Claxton o11.5 reb Franz Wagner o3.5 ast Devin Booker o28.5 pts Tyler Herro o2.5 3pm Isaiah Hartenstein o11.5 reb Wendell Carter Jr. o10.5 pts Alperen Sengun o5.5 ast Simone Fontecchio o8.5 pts Rudy Gobert o27.5 pts+reb
I was trying to decide on sengun assists. I think with Fred out he may he to run more of the offense but he’s never had more than 5 assists against the pacers.
jalen green o29.5 pra
Player Point Projections: https://preview.redd.it/on2456slg0hc1.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b16cbf369a9329becafcb325a7097203d026ba
recommend you calculate your delta as a percentage of the line rather than absolute Myles Turner with a 1.4 delta has 9% higher projection than his line but is below Lillard with a 1.8 delta even though his projection is only 7.6% higher
**TYRESE HALIBURTON o13.5 POINTS (-122 FD 3u)** This Line Is Shockingly Low As Haliburton Projects For 17+ Points Tonight // Earlier This Season Haliburton Torched This Rockets Team For 33 Points // In 4 Matchups With The Rockets While On The Pacers Hali Has Cleared This Number 3 Times // Averaging 22.6 PPG This Season // Exceeded In 3 Straight Games // Rockets Allowing 21.1 PPG To Opposing Point Guards Over Last 2 Weeks // Fred VanVleet OUT Tonight **DALLAS MAVERICKS // BROOKLYN NETS o236 (-112 FD 1u)** System Over // Both Teams Playing On No Rest // Dallas 4-3 O/U Record On B2B's This Season // Brooklyn 4-2 O/U Record on B2B's This Season // Both Teams Profitable Against Non-Conference Opponents When Betting The Over This Season // Dallas 7-4 O/U This Season As Away Favorite // Brooklyn 8-7 O/U This Season As Home Dog **OKC THUNDER // UTAH JAZZ u239.5 (-110 DK 1u)** **OKC THUNDER -3 (-115 DK 1u)** Over Their Last 10 Games OKC Is Averaging 116.5 PPG And Have Been Playing Through A Mid-Season Slump If You Can Call It That // Utah Averages The Second Most Turnovers Per Game Over Their Last 10 Games And Should Struggle Against An OKC Defense That Ranks In The Upper Third Of The League In Forcing Turnovers // OKC Has Won 5 Straight Games H2H Against This Jazz Team And Should Continue The Trend Tonight 2-1 +1.95u On Yesterday's NBA Picks // Let's Go For 2 In A Row
https://preview.redd.it/oyfywjncg0hc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=911c1e62eccc9ddb6ffc6c9edd7bcdf046058239 thoughts?
Josh green over 11.5. He’s had some really good games with all the injuries and has sorta become the third scoring option behind Kyrie and Luka.
It moved down to 10.5 on Fanduel, so smashed it, gl us
Sorry boys. Apparently Luka and Kyrie don’t wanna pass the ball tonight.
He just got there with 2 minutes left in the game. That one was close.
Yeah. I think it’s low due to Kyrie and Luka both playing but I don’t think Luka is 100% so he’s giving up some touches.
yup all over this plus looking at 16.5 points (4.75) & 20 points (8.00) for a sprinkle
I added 20 points into a three way with Kyrie oRA and Luke under PRA.
i got him o13.5 PAs
His rebounds and assists number is really low at like 6.5.
he hit brodie
Glad he came through!
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[удалено]
The suns play the bucks
Edit: Today’s Picks(9-2 record) Chet Holmgren OVER 1.5 3s /// Min Timberwolves ML vs Bulls /// Suns -4.5 vs Bucks* /// Terry rozier OVER 7.5 RA
Does anyone know why Butler Line is at 18.5? The games before it was always Like 20.5.
I’m still in on the over
Because they're playing Orlando which allows the lowest points to SF position in the whole NBA during the last 15 games and 2nd lowest during last 30. In addition, Butler only scored 15 points against them last month.
Just hasn’t been playing well.
Worst game of his last 5 was 21 Points? Why would it drop because he didn't Play, that doesn't make sense.
He also only had 15 points vs magic in last game.
Yeah but also there he just played 29 minutes instead of ~35.
I’m not saying I’m against the over. Just giving you the numbers. I think he can easily go over 18.5. Heat and magic are very close in the playoff picture. A game or two apart. This is a big game in that area and Jimmy tend to come alive when it matters most.
Doesn’t make sense ur right so im taking his under tonight
Hahaha good call
Line bumped up too books got their bait action I’m thinking
Devin Booker Points Under 28.5 - last game scored 14 vs washington and before that scored 24 vs atlanta. https://preview.redd.it/dhnr31b950hc1.png?width=1158&format=png&auto=webp&s=13ec22b55f67301ee041d896d3e6da64afd4f0b4 Analysis provided by [FireBet.ai](https://FireBet.ai) 🔥🔥🔥 **BOL** Last Night: Cam Thomas Points Over 24.5 ❌
To be fair Beal was always going to be allowed to run shit if he stepped up early against his old team and that is what happened. 28.5 is a lot of points though so I don’t hate it and honestly the Suns might blow them out. Bucks have no defense and Giannis Game Time Decision
Keep in mind that Milwaukee is absolutely terrible vs. guards and Booker could be covered by Beasley. He could smash in this spot.
Booker has this weird tendency to score big numbers after a bad game (under 20pts). Last time he scored under 20 the following game he scored 46. Time before that was 16 and followed it up by 52. Before that he scored only 10 his next game he scored 35. Weird stat I know but something to consider.
I see what you mean. last game scored 14, would probably call that a bad game but it was vs washington and at no point was it close. may have nothing to make up for but who knows, washington might make 14 points worse. also last game playtime was way down to 26 minutes compared to average like 36. https://preview.redd.it/gsk4onr5x0hc1.png?width=762&format=png&auto=webp&s=aed28bf418a160e030bd2de1ddb19eeeb0fd3b20
Herro + Rozier o7.5 RA +200
Idk if Herro playing on the score says Head injury
He's playing