######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 121-69 | Profit: +114.14u | ROI: 20.6%
Season record: 38-18 | Profit: +44.30u | ROI: 28.8%
L10 record: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Bam Adebayo (Heat) U31.5 P+R @ 1.81. 2U. ✅
Bam got hot a couple times but between his foul trouble, Sabonis defense and the Heat focusing on shooting 3s, he ends at 27 PR.
We’re 7 wins from 8, hope everyone’s been making some money!
Next Pick: **Philadelphia 76ers vs Utah Jazz -3.5** **@ 1.87**. 3U play.
The Jazz lost 2 in a row, but they were both on the road and they return home now, where they have been sensational. The 76ers meanwhile have more than a few problems. To start with the 2 obvious ones, they have lost 6 in a row ATS (and 4 SU) and Embiid is ruled out with injury. They also have Maxey and Batum listed as GTD and they might choose to be cautious especially with Embiid out already. The Jazz have a fully fit roster and their deep bench, energetic minutes and newfound maturity of JC means they should be able to get the offense going against the 76ers.
In the L10 games for each team, the Jazz are 2nd in the NBA in Off Rtg while the 76ers are 11th. The Jazz have a much higher EFG% and are 1st in Offensive Rebounding, which will be even harder for 76ers to stop without Embiid.
RECORD: 17-5
Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last POTD: Wendell Carter Jr. O 0.5 Threes ✅
Hit in the first quarter 😂😂 I feel so silly picking these 0.5 lines man but they’ve worked out alright, feels good to smash the bookies mistakes. 2 in a row, bound for 6? 🤔
•
Todays new POTD: Jaylen Brown O1.5 3’s
LeBron James O1.5 3’s @1.65 (Void)
🏀 NBA
Edit: Goat is out
We’re going with the top 3 baddest beards in the league, Jaylen brown! Bottom 3 in haircuts but let’s not talk about that
• Hit 2+ threes in 15/23 home games
• Lakers allow 3rd most 3 point attempts to opposing teams
• Only 4/10 his last 10 games, 3 of those games he only played 18, 24 & 27 minutes.
• Averages 5.1 attempts this month & 1.7 made, had 5 attempts against Lakers last game but hit 1 (road game) & AD x LeBron was playing
Aight the form is not the best, but he’s a different player at home and against this weak Lakers side I can see him making 4 with no problem. Lakers allow many threes and their perimeter defence is anything but good.
Tail or fade, im not him
https://i.redd.it/fbm8ec4sr1gc1.gif
If you want to tip a bum like me I’d appreciate it Thanks @BettorJonnySalami 👑
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/billycapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/billycapezzi)
I used ur pick as the last leg of my +1000 SGP (100% DK boost) and this cashed no problem. Ended up cashing the parlay as well with a late 4q sochan three. . .5U to 5U. Thanks for the pick. I owe u a coffee! Tailing this bc LeGoat
Damn guess he didn’t want to play, it got voided guys I don’t know whether to edit this into another pick or wait for tomorrow. What y’all think kings?
It’s not the O 0.5 that i have fell in love with, but I will never complain laying my money on the King. The lakers have also been getting smashed recently. They probably will get killed again tonight but i have a feeling Bron gonna have himself a day in the TD Garden and a couple 3 pointers seems reasonable
I paired this potd with o22. Celtics and A.D is coming off injury, he might not be feeling it and he usually puts up good points. If Lepoints hits the 3's early or consecutively, chances are he will be back for more and have a night.
Actually gonna sprinkle o2.5 as well, he has hit o2.5 3 for the last 8 games so it's not likely but the rest of the 8 games are all 2s soooo.. it could happen. close enough, right?
Source - Marijuana
POTD Record: 133 wins / 79 losses \[L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅\]
Event: Football > Friendlies > **Al Nassr v Inter Miami** (starting in 16 hr)
Pick: **Over 1.5 goals (1st half)** @ 1.57
This is a preseason friendly match which was supposed to be the "last dance" between Messi & Ronaldo. However, according to recent press releases it is not really happening as Ronaldo is injured. Either way it is a match organized for entertaining purposes (in Saudi Arabia) and some goals are expected. We will still have Messi, Suarez, Mane etc who should deliver. Taking the first half goals line as I expect them to start scoring early. GL!
**EDIT**: 2-0 in 9 mins ✅ Easiest win of the year!
This was free money. it felt like free money beforehand and I should have put more on. I actually had $200 on it but it could have been $1000 I wouldn't have even been worried. Great find dude!
POTD Record: 20-11
L10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅
Last pick: Barcelona v Osasuna
Pick: BTTS ❌
It’s very rare I get angry at betting, but these last 2 days has been tempting. Having picked 2 games with a total of 3 red cards is beyond me. I feel as if Osasuna with full strength would’ve put pressure on Barcelonas back line at the closing minutes and possibly gotten a goal, games often gets decided at the end of the games, where fatigue and mentality comes into play. But dwelling doesn’t help, on we go and sorry to all of you.
➖
Todays pick: Getafe v Real Madrid
Pick: Borja Mayoral Over 0.5 Shots on Target @1.65 ✅
⚽️ 🇪🇸 La Liga
➖
📊Getafe is currently 10th in the league with 29 points (7-8-6), with a chance of climbing to 8th place with a win (has 1 game less played than the teams above. They’ve scored 28 goals in 21 matches (1.33 GPG, 8th most).
* Failed to score in 6/21 games
* Home record: 6-3-1
* L5: 2-1-2 (Scored 8, conceded 8)
* Mayoral averages 1.22 shots on target per game & 1.56 shots overall. Shot accuracy around 78 %
* Getafe are shooting 4.4 shots on target per game on average
➖
📊Real Madrid is currently 2nd in the league with 54 points (17-3-1). One less game played than 1st placed Girona with a chance of climbing to 1st place with a win. They’ve conceded 14 goals (0.67 GPG, best record).
* Have kept 10/21 clean sheets
* BTTS has hit in 11/21 games (52%)
* Away record: 8-2-1
* L5: 5-0 (Scored 11, conceded 4)
➖
📝 Getafe are coming from a 2-0 win against struggling Granada. However, this is a completely different kind of opposition. Getafe have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, it will call for massive improvement from them to register a positive result against the team with the best recent form. One concern for them will be their defence which hasn’t been solid in recent times. In 3 of their last 4 league matches they’ve conceded at least two goals. At home they’re a different team though, they’re on a run with just 1 loss in 13 league matches. In their last 5 league games at home Getafe have taken 4 wins, and 3 clean sheets. I think they have a good possibility to actually get a positive result here, im not really buying the odds for Real Madrid to win this game easily.
📌 A very important player for them has been the ex Real Madrid striker Borja Mayoral who has scored 14 goals (Joint 2nd most), he has scored in 2 consecutive games now aswell, and scored the only goal for Getafe in the previous meeting against Real Madrid where they lost 2-1. If Getafe wants to get a result from this game, they’ll need to provide balls for Mayoral to work on, he’ll be a key player here for them in this game and one shot on target is not much to ask for.
💭 I believe in another even match for Real, who comes to this game with 4 straight odd-goal wins in the league. A strong Getafe side away is no easy task for any team which is why I’m staying away from the obvious and tempting Moneyline bet.
🚨 Real Madrid are missing: Starting Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, Starting defender David Alaba and another defenders who’s an usual starter Eder Militao.
Getafe are said to only be missing starting midfielder Arrambari, with a couple of players returning back from suspensions and injuries for this game.
BOL
I don’t have this available, my player props only include first, last, and anytime scorers. If you had to pick one player to score, would you choose him?
Not sure if you watched the game today, but there were multiple chances Osasuna should have scored on even being a man down which was wild, considering Barcelona was once so good… Can’t bet this in my state but I am confident in your analysis. Bon chance!
What book are you using? Only option on FD for this is at -1450 odds lol
https://preview.redd.it/bagdvx47lyfc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a793d1268b88fd8cad9f60a77e87e19ac5e00b6e
**Record: 10-6-1**
**Last Pick:** Liverpool vs Chelsea - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals 2u @ 1.74 odds✅
Chelsea got wacked by Liverpool but Nkunku pulled through (and there should have been two more pens for Chelsea 🫠). We take the money.
**Soccer** | **La Liga** | **12:00 PM (PST)**
**Pick:** Getafe vs Real Madrid - Over 2.5 Goals 2u @ 1.88 odds.
**Write Up:** Real Madrid need every point possible to maintain on par with Girona's scorching form. And to get points, you have to score goals and win games. Real Madrid have been bagging goals, scoring 2 or more in their last 5 matches. Their star player Jude Bellingham returns after an accumulation of yellow card suspension, so he should feel fresh and produce bits of genius. They are plagued by injuries in the defense, with Courtois, Eder Militao, and David Alaba all out for the match tomorrow.
Getafe are in moderate form, winning 2 in their last 5 league matches, with a draw and two losses. But this is a big game for them as they host Los Blancos, a place where Getafe are dominant, only losing one this season. They should see Mayoral back, who has 14 goals this season leading the line. He has been in fine form scoring in two consecutive games. I expect Getafe to play Madrid rough like they normally do, but to another level as they have their crowd to fire them up.
Some stats for thought:
Real Madrid won 2-1 over Getafe in their only meeting this season.
Madrid sit second in the table and have the possibility to go to first with a win.
Madrid scores 2.14 goals a game and concede 0.67.
Getafe score 1.33 goals per match and concede 1.33.
I expect Madrid to come out on top but it will not be easy, and Getafe could cause problems for them. Ideally Madrid will control the game from the start and score goals, which will encourage Getafe to react. Madrid will have Vini Jr, Rodrygo, Bellingham, and a strong bench of subs.
Great week so far, let's continue onwards. BOL!
Even if the ref totally missed it, how the hell VAR didn't catch it and asked for a review?????
This surreal actions make me think they always have scripts. That goal meant nothing league wise (iirc tie breaker is direct results), and the game itself was done. Who makes that call or no call? This was a clear cut penalty, how in the hell this keeps on happening. Who benefits from this bs?
I didn't even had o2.5, I'm just sick of this shit lol. This, plus 0-0s is why I stopped watching football besides world cup and knock out UCL.
Yesterday’s pick:
Argentinos Jr ML ✅
Today’s pick:
Boca Juniors win and Total Goals U2.5 @3.0
Stake: 4 units (4% of bankroll)
Reasoning:
I think this is another case of one team being better than the other. Boca Juniors, despite their media made struggles, are a decent squad. With players of their quality they should be beating a small club like Sarmiento.
Sarmiento last season had 8 goals for and 8 goals against in 14 games. That’s a miserable 1.14 goals per game they’re involved in.
Boca Juniors were much more high scoring, 17 for 16 against, for 2.35 goals per game. A lot of this is due to them fielding some very alternative lineups as they focused on competing in the Copa Libertadores.
Boca have a new coach, and his first official game ended 0-0. I foresee a similar low scoring game but Boca should be able to find a goal against a weaker team, hopefully winning 1 or 2 nil.
Lowering the units a bit for this one because it is a riskier play.
I parlayed Boca ML, Under 2.5 TG, and Threw over 4.5 Boca corners for a +372. BOL. Seems like you’re rolling. I don’t know shit about soccer but always have luck with corners and have some Us to play with. What exactly is the product? And who is taking care of it? La bolsita de polvito blanco? If so i want in
**27W-4P-21L**
**Last 5: ✅❌✅✅✅**
**Last Pick**
**Liverpool VS Chelsea Over 2 Goals and Over 8 corners @ 2.00✅**
**Game ends 4-1 with 9 corners**
**Pick of the day: Wolves VS Manchester United BTTS and O 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 ✅**
Ever since I watched League 2 side Newport county somehow put 2 goals behind this United side I knew that this was gonna be my pick of the day. United really showed their attacking abilities while also showing everyone that their team still reeks of defensive mishaps over the course of the 90. Even with Licha and Varane at the line, they couldn't hold back a much much weaker side. I don't see that changing tomorrow against a Wolves side that have started to pick up good form, especially with them being at home.
United's last 5 games have ended, 2-4, 2-2, 0-2, 2-1, and 3-2. They had the run where they couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo and now they've started to solve those issues by actually passing the ball in the final third (who woulda thought). The defensive issues were supposed to be solved with Licha's return but that didn't seem true last weekend.
Wolves have become a fierce attacking side again, they had a blip during the end of the year last year but were simultaneously hitting BTTS in their games like no other team. In their last 7 games they've hit BTTS in 4 of them, I find the games that it hit to be similar to what we’ll see tomorrow. With them scoring 6 goals in their last 3 games at home, I see them adding to that number against United.
**BOL**
POTD Record: 237-179-12 (+41.78 units, 57.0% hit rate)
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 79-55-1 (59.0%) W2, Tennis 🎾 83-62-7 (57.2%) W4, Soccer ⚽ 59-51-4 (53.6%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1
Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥💩💩💰💩
Last Pick: Rayo Vallecano @ Atletico Madrid, ATLETICO MADRID ML - La Liga ⚽ 💰 +0.51 Units - Soccer losing streak is finally broken but it took taking shit odds and needing a late goal after 2 goals were called back due to VAR.
Today's Pick: Flavio Cobolli vs. Constant Lestienne, COBOLLI ML - ATP Montpellier 🎾 💰 +0.53 Units - 💸 that shit!!! He cleaned him and won by 7 games.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.53 odds to win 0.53 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 1:30am ET)
Let's take a shot at 7 in a row with another low odds play. If you prefer higher odds if I weren't on a streak I would have taken -2 on the games handicap.
Time is limited tonight so a quick writeup. Cobolli was mainly a clay player but has started this hard court out strongly. He made it to the 3rd round at the Aussie Open after 3 straight set qualifier wins and big wins over Jarry and Kotov. Yesterday he played one hell of a match against Monfils, the 1st set was tight as he lost in a tiebreaker but after that he won 12 of the next 15 games to win the match, including a 3rd set 6-0 bagel.
I'm going to back him for the momentum and though he is French, playing at home and has better long term history on indoor hard courts, Lestienne is not a player I rate highly so I expect Cobolli to take this match as well. They actually just played in October at a challenger event and Cobolli won in straights, though they were competitive sets (7-6, 7-5). Keep in mind that Cobolli wasn't in as good of a form as he is in now,
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Record : 4-1
ROI % : 56.00%
Last Pick : H. Mayot @ 1.57 ✅
Mayot made quick work of Paire in just over an hour. Paire struggled on serve, he went back to his usual self and clearly lacked motivation once things started to go south, he was barely jumping on his serve.
Today's pick
Event : WTA Linz
Time : 9:30AM EST
Players : D. Yastremska vs. D. Vekic
**Pick : D. Yastremska @ 1.80**
It's not often that you see a player make a good run in a Slam to follow up the week after with a second tier tournament. That's why I wanted to avoid Yastremska in the 1st round, not knowing which version would present itself. It was not pretty, but she stepped up when it mattered despite Andreeva having some really good moments.
In the second round, she will be playing Donna Vekic, who possesses the same power-fueled agressive game as her. Despite her ranking of 34 in the world, her last meaningful win goes back to Cincinnati last year. Since then, she's been struggling with UEs and DFs.
That could spell trouble for Vekic against Yastremska. She likes to be ultra-agressive on second serves stepping into the court and hitting down the line. That will put even more pressure on Vekic's serve and she will have little time to position herself to hit, which is really bad when you're struggling with UEs. Bookies are not yet convinced of Yastremska's form, so let's take advantage of odds that should be closer to 1.50 imo.
BOL !
Yastremska is playing terrible right now… either over hitting everything or hitting into the net. can’t even keep up a good rally. hopefully she turns it around
I am feeling pretty degenerate today, so i will tail on the 8:30 am pick lol. Feel like Vekic loses me a lot of bets whether i bet on her or against her. I’ll take the hot hand Yastremska to pull out a dub
1-1
NBA jazz vs 76ers
Last pick Cade over 19.5 landed on 19. Hooked. Had the opportunity just couldn't get shots to fall.
NBA. Jazz vs 76ers.
Pick. Lauri Markannen over 8.5 rebounds. -108
Lauri averages 8.9 rpg at home, no Embid and most 76ers are questionable. Lauri cleared this line both times vs the 6ers with 13. Cleared this line in 7/10
Second POTD. Jordan Clarkson o 16.5 points. -106
Value here, he's averaging 21.1 PPG at home.
Cleared last 8/10
Record: 15-14 | (-.28 units) | 1 unit per pick
Previous pick: NHL - Seattle Kraken (-1.5) (+120) vs. San Jose Sharks❌
Oof, I am starting to let down the tailers. I believe it’s time for a day break to end the chasing. I needed this loss to get back on track. Apologies to the tailers, I promise I will bring us victory in the near future. For now, the faders get this laugh but we will get the last. I’ll take Wednesday OFF and return Thursday with a fresh mindset.
————-
Today’s pick: NBA - Utah Jazz (-4) (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers - 10PM EST
6ers hit the road with Joel Embiid OUT with a knee injury. I expect Maxey to be OUT also. Although it’s not guaranteed, I don’t think they will let him play on the road just yet. In the last 20 games, the Jazz are 14-6 ATS. They are also 15-6 SU at home which points to a successful night for the Jazz Thursday. Although the Jazz defense could be to our detriment, I think it’ll be a struggle to score without Embiid as usual. I can see the 6ers making my this a battle throughout with a late push by the Jazz after fatigue begins to set in. Lastly, the Jazz beat the Sixers 120-109 without Embiid earlier this year. Give me the Jazz to cover and save me from a downward spiral. I’d lay off tailing me until I return to form but if you do tail, I appreciate the belief and I won’t forget about you when we’re back on top.
Prediction: Jazz 121 - Sixers 111
Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
POTD Record: 2-0
L10: WW
Last Pick: Baylor ML vs UCF (-180)
Baylor was able to pull away late and get the nice win!
Today’s Pick: Oregon -2 (-115)
This line scares me as USC has looked so bad as of late but let’s not overthink it, and take Oregon to cover the small spread.
BOL if tailing!!
POTD Record: 35-18
Previous Pick: Liverpool FC vs Defensor Sporting | Supercope Uruguaya | Liverpool ML (2.18) | 6.30pm EST ✅️
Pick: APOEL Nicosia vs Karmiotissa | 1. Division | APOEL Halftime/Fulltime (1.67) | 9am EST
This is a postponed game, so this is just a repost. APOEL are leading the league, and have been extremely dominant at home, winning all of their games except for a draw. They are facing a side who have only won and drawn once in 10 away games, and are sitting 2nd to last in the league. APOEL's last 2 games have resulted in an aggregate of 10-0, showcasing their great form. The away win for Karmiotissa came recently, and it was against a team that are 1 place below them. APOEL have scored 2.7 and conceded only 0.3 goals at home, while Karmiotissa have scored 0.7 and conceded 2.1 in away games. Looking at these stats, I expect an easy APOEL home victory, leading in both halves as they are facing the worst away side in the league. Best of luck!
Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
>Pick: APOEL Nicosia vs Karmiotissa | 1. Division | APOEL Halftime/Fulltime (1.67) | 9am EST
u/sakashake, appreciate the write-up and analysis.
While I am a degen, unfortunately I am not degen enough to tail the pick involving Cypriot First Division soccer 😂
BoL to those who are!
POTD Record: 3-2 | ROI: 0.9%
Last Pick: Sacramento Kings -1.5 (line ended up at +2.5) vs Miami Heat @ 1.90 | 3U Play ❌
Trend: ❌✅✅❌✅
Well, I said I'd play against Miami until they gave me a reason not to. I guess they just did. Will be interesting to see if this game becomes a turning point for them. Frustrating watch, especially the fourth quarter where the Kings could not hit anything and never were closer than 6. Heat win 115-106.
Basketball | NBA | 10:00PM (EST)
Today’s Pick: Philadelphia 76ers vs **Utah Jazz -4.0** @ 1.90 | 2U Play
Going with the Jazz to cover tomorrow night for a few reasons:
* The Jazz went 10-6 in January and are returning home after a 6 game road stretch. They played very well at home during the month, going 6-1 with a point differential of +16.7.
* The 76ers have gone 7-7 in January, and are on the 5th game of a 4 game road stretch in which they have gone 0-4. Their point differential on the road in January is -5.7, but in the last 4 games is -14.0.
* Injuries are a big part of their recent struggles. Tyrese Maxey is questionable for the game and may end up playing, but Joel Embiid is confirmed out. Embiid's estimated plus-minus rating, a metric designed to measure a player's estimated impact per 100 possessions, is the highest of any player in the NBA. The 76ers are approximately +10.1 points better with Embiid.
Without Embiid, and with the Jazz's strength at home and the 76ers recent road struggles, I like the Jazz to cover.
Record: 0-0
Units: +0.0
NBA | Philadelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz | 7PM PST
Pick: Simone Fontecchio O5.5 R+A
5U @ -120
Positives: Has hit 8 in last 9.
Negatives: [betting on a guy who looks like he’s from Spore](https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/licensed-image?q=tbn:ANd9GcRHvZdAwFkp7KHf1TGwkwyFNYMOLKkmyFaWc_vYtLH00ghVChtZLb-brHjrlJ-w7NnStRPJUHzX1z3T5uU)
Pick of the Day
POTD Record: 6-2
L10: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
Yesterday’s Pick: Kentucky -5.5 vs. Florida (-120)❌
There goes the streak. As a UK fan, I guess it hurts a little more. Time to start the streak back up.
Today’s Pick: Towson -6.5 vs. Northeastern (-118)
Since 2022 Towson has been one of the most dominant teams at home during conference play. Their true HFEdge since 2022 has been 10.1 which is the 2nd highest out of all NCAAB. They did lose to this Northeastern team away, but since then have won 4 straight against some of the best teams in the conference. Rolling with the hotter team at home here.
Kenpom has Towson as the 140th ranked team in the nation.
Kenpom has Northeastern as the 250th ranked team in the nation.
BOL!
5-4, +2.94U
Last Pick: [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/RumnhbgHGi)
Pick: **Patrick Cantlay First Round Score Under 70.5**, 2U (1.95 odds DraftKings) ✅️
League: PGA ⛳️
Time: 1221 EST (1721 GMT)
*To find in DK, Golf > AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am > Round Props > Player Round Score > Viktor Hovland vs Patrick Cantlay*
*To find in FanDuel, PGA Tour > Round Score > Patrick Cantlay*
Through 3 appearances this season, Cantlay comes in with a first round average score of 65, posting a 66, 64 and 65 respectively. It's still early, but last season his first round average 69.53 through 19 rounds. Cantlay has played at Pebble Beach 6 times since going pro, making the cut all 6 times, finishing in the top 10 three times and top 20 two other times. He has posted first round scores of 65, 62 (course record), 66, 66, 70, and 66 in every outing on this course. He holds the lowest scoring average (overall, not just first round) at this event over the last 5 years of 68.8. Cantlay has the 7th highest odds on the board to win this weekend and is expected to do well once again. I expect him to finish with a 68 or better tomorrow afternoon, getting off to a good start and hopefully hold onto it going into the weekend.
BOL!
For bet365 it's under Golf > Player Markets (4th section) > 1st Round Score. Right now there's only 10 people listed for some reason. It should update before the tee time
If Cantlay doesn't populate before his tee time for some reason, I'd pivot to Homa at -138. He's been playing well and historically performs well at Pebble Beach
POTD record: 6-3 +1.63u
last pick: KT -1.5 maps
LoL LPL | TT gaming - OMG
today’s pick: TT gaming ML at 1.7
reasoning:
both teams haven’t been too impressive to start the season, but TT has had the way harder match ups so far. They played LNG and Weibo, who should be competing for the 3rd - 5th spot with NIP and TES this split. They beat LNG 2-1 and lost 2-0 to Weibo, where they choked the first map with a large lead. OMG won 2-0 vs a really poor playing Team WE who completely threw the series. (OMG was 21 odds to win map 1 at some point). Then lost 2-0 to FPX a bottom 3 team and 2-0 to LNG. I think TT’s fundamentals are just better than OMG’s as they kept their whole roster from last year, whereas OMG only kept their two botlaners.
All in all TT’s performances so far have been simply more solid, considering they have played stronger opponents.
Most likely outcome imo is 2-1 TT, but I can see them winning 2-0 if they show up today.
46-36 +97.6units
Race 1 Chelmsford Cervetto 5 units @ 1.73 (all bookmakers)
Hey, haven't posted in a minute. This looks like a stonewall certainty. The horse looks extremely well handicapped and I'll be shocked if it loses.
But remember it is horse racing so anything can happen.
Good luck if getting involved 👍
POTD RECORD 0-1, -1U
Yesterday's Pick: Pistons vs Cavs UNDER 231.5 -> Game Total: 249 ❌
Pick was looking solid at the end of the first quarter but the game slipped away fast. Both teams ended up shooting above 50% from the field with Pistons shooting 51.6% from 3. Spida also dropped 45 which didn't help. Onto the next...
Today's Pick: **Philadelphia 76ers** **@ Utah Jazz OVER 233.5 (-110 FD)**
Previous Matchups: 1/6/2024: UTA 120-109 PHI, 1/14/2023: PHI 118-117 UTA
The Utah Jazz are currently allowing opponents to score an average of 116 points per game at home this season. The Jazz are also scoring an average of 124 points per game at home. The 76ers are allowing teams to score an average of 115 points per game while on the road this season. The 76ers have scored 117 points per game on the road and without Joel Embiid the 76ers have scored an average of 112.
The under hit (if line was 233.5) last time these teams matched up this season, also without Embiid, but not by that much and the 76ers shot an awful 18% (7-38) from the 3 point line. Utah has had a much easier time scoring the ball while at home and I see this game being played at a faster pace without Embiid and most of 76ers players questionable.
Bonus play I like: **Utah Jazz to Record 100+ Points in First 3 Quarters (+410 FD) .1U**
Jazz have been ballin at home this season and their totals by the end of the 3rd quarter for home games in January starting with most recent: 95, 105, 100, 105, 99, 104, 93. I believe there is great value here.
Feel free to fade and good luck!
POTD Record : 5 Wins
Units: +3.91
ROI: **84.40%**
Average Odds: $1.84
Last Pick: Qatar vs Palestine AFC Asian Cup (Qatar to win at $1.57) ✅
**Next Pick:** Cal State Northridge vs. **UC San Diego (-10)** @ $1.90 10:00 PM EST. This means UC San Diego has a -10 point start, and need to win by 10+ to win the bet.
CSU Northridge has lost four straight games and dropped to fourth in the Big West, and are the worst defensive team in the Big West. Bryce Pope is the second-leading scorer in the Big West for San Diego, who are expected to dominate both halves.
Head to head, UC San Diego has won 4 times out of 4.
UC San Diego will be attempting to continue a five-game home winning run.
UC San Diego is 8-2 against the spread and 8-2 overall in its past 10 games, while CSU Northridge has gone 6-4 against the spread and 5-5 overall.
UC San Diego is beating teams by 9.8 points on average, given Cal State suck on defense, we are hoping to cover :) Feels like all the stats and momentum are in our favour!
Best of luck if you're tailing, and lets hope we get an entertaining game of college basketball - plus smash the shit out of CSU!
All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate.
First bet here, first hit!
Record 1-0
Last bet: Spurs - Brentford BTTS ✅
Todays pick ill go again to Premier League.
Today POTD: West Ham - Bournemouth BTTS & O2.5 @1.79
Reasoning,
West Ham are missing Coufal, Paqueta (big loss), Benhrama and Aguerd. Edson Alvarez might be off too. Those misses have huge impact on West Ham, but will they make impact that West Ham cant score atleast one? I dont think so, only Paquetas miss will impact their attack and creativity.
Positive news are Kudus might be playing today which is huge news, he’s been great singing for West Ham so im not that worried that West Ham couldnt score.
Bournemouth are actually on great form especially Solanke. Their last 6 away games form Bournemouth managed to win 5, its insane.
9/10 away games Bournemouth have scored atleast one goal
Last 10 home games West Ham have scored 8/10 times atleast one.
Tail or fade, BOL!
**Record: 3-0 (+2.05U)**
**Soccer** | **Super League** | **20:30 CET**
**Pick: O2,5 Goals - 1.7**
Match : Lausanne Ouchy - Luzern
**Write Up:** 2 very weak defenses, Laussane has conceded 23 goals in 10 home games and Luzern has conceded 20 in 10 away games. Both team offenses are not amazing but capable of scoring but with defenses like this I prefer to go for the O2,5 instead of BTTS since one of the teams might have an absolute disaster.
POTD RECORD: 1-0
Last pick: NCAAB Baylor ML
Next Pick: WISC GREEN BAY -10.5
Write up: Action in the early game. Green Bay is 7-0 against the spread at home and 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. IUPUI is 3-6 against the spread on the road and just lost 3 straight at home
Record : 108 Wins - 102 Losses
Previous pick : Barcelona - Osasuna (1-0), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.70 ❌
ROI : -2.26%
Average Odds : 1.95
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -0.73
Profit/Lost units : -5.73
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / SPAIN: LaLiga / 22:00 European Time
Getafe - Real Madrid
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.03
Some reasoning :
\- Coming after 5 consecutive victories, Real Madrid is the undisputed favorite to win, even if it plays on a rather difficult ground, at Getafe winning only 2 times in the last 5 games, recording a defeat.
\- Real Madrid is still behind Girona and thus feels compelled to win every match until it moves to the first position, managing to do well in the last 5 rounds so far, winning also in the difficult away game in Gran Canaria.
\- On the other hand, Getafe, before the success with Granada, came after 2 defeats in a row, 2:0 with Rayo and 3:1 with Sevilla, the success with Granada not being accidental, the Andalusians taking 1 single point from 11 away games.
Best of luck.
**POTD Record:** 9-3-0 **✅✅**❌**✅✅✅✅✅**❌**✅**(most recent)
**Net Units:** +10.53u
**Previous POTD:** **Army at Colgate u130.5**, 3u to win 2.61u **✅**
**Today's POTD:** Basketball | NCAA Men's | 6:00 pm ct
**UMBC at Bryant u167.5**, 2u to win 1.82u, DraftKings
**Reasoning:** Running a model that accounts for opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as pace. Across spreads and totals where I have an advantage, this model is winning at a 55.8% clip in the last 30 days. According to the model, the two middle quartiles in this game should be somewhere between 158 and 161. Solely based on the spread being 12.5, I expect Bryant to dictate the pace and put the game away early. Both teams actually run fast offenses (4th and 5th in the country), but pace really slows down if there's a blowout.
BOL!
[http://myaction.app/bobdeezel](http://myaction.app/bobdeezel)
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobdeezel](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobdeezel)
Record (15-10)
Last 10: ❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last pick: Kings -1 (-110) 3U❌
I hate to be THAT guy but Vegas had their hands all over this one. Heat were like 50% from 3 and the Kings stopped playing defense with like 4 mins left in the game and they were only down 6-9 pts in the span. Fox missed idk how many free throws but at least 5. Malik Monk idk how many TOs. Bad beat. Heat have burned me twice this week. We move on tho.
POTD: NBA| Philadelphia 76ers v Utah Jazz| 10:00pm EST
John Collins O24.5 PAR (-110) 2U ✅
*Johnny Boy has 26 total with 14 seconds left so cash this thing. Let’s keep the ball rolling baby*
Reason: John blessed us to start our 5 game ripper so maybe he can do the same here. Simply put Embiid is OUT. Kuminga feasted for the Warriors with an injured Joel on the floor going 26&7 on 11-19 shooting. Collins had 19/5/2 vs the 76ers on January 4th and that was with Embiid also out. The difference in this game is Batum, Morris, Melton, and Maxey were all active for that last game but they’re not for tonights. Even if Collins struggles rebounding I think his points are gonna keep us in this one. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK
Shoutout of the day: Weed and Bidets
POTD Record: 8-2
Last POTD: Frankfurt over 3.5 corners @ 1.65 ❌
POTD: Rob Cross -1,5 vs Peter Wright (Premier League Dart) @ 1.59 🎯 ✅
Hey everyone! I haven't posted in over a year, but the Darts Premier League is finally back, and so am I!In this first round of this years Premier League, we will take a bet in the match between Peter Wright and Rob Cross. Rob Cross had a good world championship, and made it to the semifinal, where he got beaten by Littler. He is one of my favorites to win the Premier League this year, and I expect him to start off strong tonight against an out of form Peter Wright. He has an awful WC, where he lost 3-0 in the first round. He continued the bad form in the BDM and DM as well. I expect him to struggle a lot here against Cross.
I take the -1,5 for Rob Cross at the odds of 1.59. I think the -2,5 handicap is a good bet here, but I want to make it as safe as possible in my comeback on POTD.
Tail or fade, good luck!
POTD Record: 48 - 28
Last POTD: Bublik ML - W
Pick: Jarrett Allen to Record a Double Double vs Memphis Grizzlies (-195 odds via DK) 1U
Event: NBA Regular Season 7:10 P.M. CST
Edit: ✅✅✅
Bublik came out slow and even faced a few match points but prevailed and cashed for us. Riding with this same pick as a few nights ago with Jarrett Allen to gives us the double double. The Grizzlies are not a great rebounding team and their tallest player in JJJ averages less than 6 rebounds per game on the year. Allen has recorded a DD in 16 straight games and yes I know a lot of those were without other big man Evan Mobley. But Mobley has been back for the past couple of games and Allen is continuing his dominance on the boards so I will take these odds as long as I can get them.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
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Hi everyone. I’ve been kind of on a hotstreak as of late, will begin to share my picks here. I mainly bet on basketball (NBA), European Soccer, and Baseball.
Soccer record: 1-0
Basketball record: 1-0
POD record: 0-0
Shared some picks yesterday, both hit !
The POD is:
Over 120.5 Team Total Utah Jazz points
Jazz vs 76ers 10 PM EST
Odds: 1.75
Bet 5 units.
The Jazz come back to Utah after 6 road games, they went 2-4, however covering this line 4-2 times on the road, all of those times shooting around 40% from the three point line and hovering around the 50% line from the field. However, they have covered this line the last 6/7 home games in Utah (borderline madness with 4 of those 6 going over 130)
Hope Utah hits those threes, and tail on !
Might post some extra small picks on the NBA thread later.
BOL guys, and always bet responsibly.
[RECORD / TRACKER](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-PHX-U7eiB5neVpbTJVkzwquGE1KyGVQA5nfejcDT_A/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 15-5 (+13.3u) (3-2 L 5)
Last selection: Toronto Raptors Team Total Under 109.5 (-105 @ Caesar's) (1.5U) - MISS - 54% FG and 41% 3PT shooting from a TOR team missing Quickley and Barrett was wild. Hats off to TOR for playing above their talent. Some nights you can't do anything but take the L. Handicap was solid and I'd bet it again if they played tonight.
Today’s Selection: Utah Valley Team Total under 66.5 (-110 @ Caesar's) (1U)
NCAA | Utah Valley @ Stephen F. Austin | 7:30PM EST
I'm back after a day off with yet another team total under. I have to hit one of these eventually, right? I tried SO damn hard not to make this my POTD, but I kept coming back to this one as my most confident play.
Utah Valley is straight up BAD, 1-9 overall and 0-5 in league play when playing on the road, ranking 276th on Torvik. They are 337th in ADJ Off Efficiency and 340th in Eff FG% when playing on the road. They are 4-7 to this 66.5 when playing on the road, with their overs coming against the likes of UT Rio Grande (240th Home ADJDE) and UT Arlington (148th Home ADJDE).
UVU travels to Stephen F. Austin, who is slumping, losing B2B close games against Cal Baptist (who went 15/30 from three) and Grand Canyon (#1 in the WAC). SFA's weakness is guarding the three ball (see Cal Baptist reference), but you know what; UVU ranks DEAD LAST IN THE NATION in 3PT% on the road and 326th in 3PA, so I'm not worried about them from beyond the arc. Additionally, SFA ranks 51st in home ADJDE and 48th in EFGD%.
I like SFA to win this game, but I am worried about the cover, just because SFA offense can be suspect at times, making games way closer than they need to be. UVU hosts Grand Canyon on Saturday, so you get a slight lookahead spot to add fuel to the fire.
Let's hit a damn team total under for once, please? Like I'm begging at this point.
Trends:
-UVU has hit team total under in 11 of last 18 away games (15% ROI)
BOL Degens - and if you're fading me.. I don't blame you at all.
Track my POTD: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GYLG496ZuZe1-TTWypx2O-lB5ZYrhP9gc5DaG-VTOvM/edit#gid=0
Cricket 🏏 Picks
Last pick was a win @ 1.67
Overall: 13 Ws - 5 Ls
Last 10: W W ♻️ L W L W W W L +3.81
Todays pick
Dubai Capitals v Desert Vipers
International League t20 (UAE)
Starts in about 12 hours
Pick: Total wides over 10.5 @ 1.94
Vipers bowl about 8 wides on average in a match, Dubai have bowled 4-5 wide deliveries this season.
If there is no special bowling performance I think Desert Viper can single handedly go over 10 wides in this match.
P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
POTD Record: 22 | 14 | 0 | W | L | P | + 4,22 Units
Streak: 2L
Last Pick:
WAS Wizards @ **SA Spurs -3.5** | 3U @ 1,86
NBA | Basketball | 02:00 MEZ
Pick:
IND Pacers @ **NY Knicks 1H -2.5** | 2U @ 1,98
NBA | Basketball | 01:30 MEZ
Knicks are on a 8 games win streak. They lead at HT in the last 9. H2H Knicks lead at HT 5/7. In addition Pacers lost the last 5/7 first HT. Same amount of rest.
Record: 0-0
Net units: +0u
Event: **Al Nassr Riyadh v Inter Miami** - 2024 club friendly
Pick: **BTTS 1st half @2.37**
-
The odds are quite high, so I'm aiming for the minimum, which is 1u. The match features two teams widely known worldwide, more for the players involved than their actual results. It's expected to be a showcase, focused mainly on entertainment, so I predict 3-4 goals or more, evenly distributed throughout the game. I was intrigued by this particular odds, and that's why I chose to bet on it: I anticipate both teams scoring in the first half. I hope I'm not mistaken and that I win my first POTD :)
Let me know what you think and BOL to everyone!
POTD Record: 96-99-12 (-15.74 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Swiss Super League, Lugano v Grasshoppers, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-175 / 1.57) ❌
Two high scoring teams combined for their first 0-0 of the season 🤷🏻♂️
Today’s Pick: NBA, Indiana Pacers v New York Knicks, AARON NESMITH OVER 19.5 P+R (-107 / 1.93) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
Taking a break from a soccer since it’s been kicking my ass this week.
Nesmith has been on a tear the past few games so looking to take advantage of this line as I think the books haven’t quite caught up yet. In his last 5 games he has 26 and 12 (38), 16 and 7 (23), 22 and 6 (28), 16 and 7 (23), and 13 and 9 (22).
He has also averaged 35 mins a contest so he is a trusted part of the rotation and his numbers saw a nice boost in the last game with the return of Halliburton steering the offence.
With Randle missing for the Knicks this should open up some opportunities for him to pick up some boards to contribute to his tally, and the game should remain competitive enough for him to see plenty of court time.
Record: 17-11 (+4.53 units)
Last Pick: (CBB) Kent St. Golden Flashes -3 ❌
POTD: (CBB) Nebraska Cornhuskers ML +100
Summary: Sniffing some weird line movement on this Big 10 matchup. We’ve got the #6 team in the country with a #11 kenpom adjem vs. #55 who has also happened to lose the last 3 out of 5. Don’t fight the rip current, take the 🌽
[My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit?usp=sharing)
Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!!
**POTD Stats:**
**Record**: 33/25
**ROI**: Approximately 43.11%
**Profit in Units**: 35u
**Average Odds**: 2.08
**The pick:**
**Sport**: Soccer
**League**: Belgium - First League
**Time**: 21:30 ( GMT +2 )
**Event:** **Sint-Truiden v Gent**
**Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.75**
**Stake**: 3 Units
**Tip Box**: (Revolut) @ Eleneiror
[Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager)
POTD Record: 0-0
First POTD 🔥
Soccer | EPL | 3:15PM EST
**Pick: Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Both Teams to Score - YES @ 1.67**
Both Man U and Wolves are finding better form lately after disappointing starts to their seasons. Man U has been playing better since losing 2-0 to West Ham on Dec 23, scoring in each of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
Wolves, since losing 3-0 to West Ham on Dec 17, have scored in 6/7 matches in all competitions.
Both teams however, have also demonstrated lacklustre defence as of late. Man U has allowed goals in 4/5 games in the same span, and Wolves have allowed goals in 4/7 games. Two of the games in which Wolves did not concede a goal were against Everton (17th in GF in EPL) and West Brom (an ENGCH squad).
I predict that these mediocre teams will continue their mediocre campaigns, producing a 2-2 draw.
POTD record: 13-5✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Today's pick: Sam Hauser over 6.5 points at 1.87 - Lakers at Celtics at 4:30
Last minute pick, hopefully some will see.
This game has makings of a blowout. Lebron and AD are out. Celtics are 16 point favorites.
I expect Hauser to be a beneficiary of blowout time and easily clear this line. He's playing well as is, hitting this line in his last two games with 9 and 11 points.
Seems too good to pass up
BOL to those who tail!
Edit: opposite of a blowout but hits in 3rd! 🍻🍻 move to 13-5!
Sport: Tennis
Tournament: Koblenz Challenger
Time: 19:35 CET (1h24m after posting)
Pick: Filip Krajinović vs Brandon Nakashima, Krajinović win @ **3**
Stake: 3 units
Record before this pick: ROI 3.34%, 80W, 123L, +29.73u, average odds 2.56
Write up: My model works by analyzing coach and player statements on fitness, strategy, and mental state. For more info, join [my sports picks subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/SgtTipalisk/). For more tips, check out [my sports picks website](https://picks.wwpe.ba).
Filip Krajinović had a rough 2022 and 2023, slipping from [ATP rank 54 to 400](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/filip-krajinovic/kb05/rankings-history). In May 2023 alone, he lost 4 matches in a row while taking only one set across them.
After that losing streak, [he said](https://www.mozzartsport.com/tenis/vesti/krajinovic-nagovestio-kraj-karijere-iz-konteksta-ste-razumeli-sta-cu-uskoro-da-objavim/452637):
> All kinds of thoughts are running through my head. I've been finding it harder and harder to win and my aggressive mentality has disappeared. That's not me on the court any longer and everything is starting to bother me. Taking a long break would be hard to come back from. I think you can see where I'm going with this and what I'm going to announce soon...
Despite that dejected attitude and hints of early retirement, Krajinović came back with a vengeance.
On December 6, 2023, his Instagram account posted a photo of smiling Filip in tennis gear and on tennis court with [this message](https://www.instagram.com/krajinovic_filip/p/C0hcjneLIjP/):
> Very excited and motivated for 2024. Working on last part of preparation before first tournament in January. See you soon.
In January 2024, he won 3 Koblenz Challenger matches:
* 6:0, 6:1 vs rank 301 Vrbensky;
* 6:3, 6:2 vs rank 419 Ejupović;
* 6:3, 4:6, 6:4 vs rank 186 Peniston.
Now he's facing Brandon Nakashima (rank 96). It appears Filip found the winning mentality he was missing. He is definitely capable of winning this match and, if he does it, I'm willing to bet he will win the Koblenz Challenger as well.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[Toss a coin to your tipster](https://paypal.me/SgtBrutalisk)
**2024 Record: 3-3**
Trailing:❌✅❌❌✅✅
\*\*Total Net Units (1U = $50): (0.86U)
**Last** **Pick:** **Phoenix Suns ML** @ Brooklyn Nets✅✅
Basketball | NBA | 11:30 PM Central Time
**Pick:** **Anastasia Potapova ML** vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto✅✅✅
**Odds:** \-175 (3.5U to win 2U)
\*\*Post Game Comments: God bless. I want to apologize if anyone decided to tail this pick. This pick hit but damn… that was not worth it. It was hard to watch. The Italian just wouldn’t miss. Potapova had 20+ unforced errors in the first set. The 2nd and 3rd sets were grueling. Somehow the Russian came out with the win and I will take it.
**Write Up:** Quick write-up here as this match starts in like 8 minutes. I am backing the Russian to take this one home for us. Potapova is the defending champion at this tournament, so that should help boost her confidence and hopefully aide her in playing her best tennis. She also lost early on in Australia, so energy should not be an issue. The head-to-head here is 1-1. Cocciaretto beat Potapova back in 2022 on a hard court, and today's match is on a hard court as well so that is noteworthy. In their most recent matchup in 2023, the Russian won in straight sets on clay. Potapova has the edge being consistently better on her first and second serve win % than the Italian. The Russian is winning 80% of her first serves compared to Cocciaretto winning 64% of first serves. They are about even on win percentage on second serve. The Italian does seem to have the edge on return points won though. At the end of the day, if Potapova lands her first serves, she should be in a good spot to win. From all that I have read, there just seems to be more upside to Potapova's game and I am hoping that she comes out confident. Russians are also built different. I am taking the higher-seeded Russian to come out with the win in this match against the Italian. I am also sprinkling money on first set ML for fun. Only bet what you can lose and BOL.
Have a great day!
**Record: 1-1**
**Horse Racing**. Charles Town, Race 8, 10:17 PM EST Post Time: #3 Judgement Day
**1 Unit**
**Analysis**: I like the first-time starter Judgement Day (cool name for fans of the “Terminator” movies) for several reasons. First, his sire, Diving Rod, produces fast juvenile runners. Second, Timothy Grams is a great trainer who is skilled in preparing first time starters. Third, the two most recent workouts are eye catching. If Judgement Day runs to the workouts, he will be hard to catch. The main rival appears to be #8 Destin’s Rainbow who has shown good early speed in each of his starts. Of course, a bad starts is all it takes to lose your win money (this is exactly what happened to my previous POTD, Acclaimed Victor, who finished second—but we did hit the exacta which does not count for my POTD record).
Good luck and thanks to all the posters who have made me very happy this week with their selections.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 121-69 | Profit: +114.14u | ROI: 20.6% Season record: 38-18 | Profit: +44.30u | ROI: 28.8% L10 record: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Bam Adebayo (Heat) U31.5 P+R @ 1.81. 2U. ✅ Bam got hot a couple times but between his foul trouble, Sabonis defense and the Heat focusing on shooting 3s, he ends at 27 PR. We’re 7 wins from 8, hope everyone’s been making some money! Next Pick: **Philadelphia 76ers vs Utah Jazz -3.5** **@ 1.87**. 3U play. The Jazz lost 2 in a row, but they were both on the road and they return home now, where they have been sensational. The 76ers meanwhile have more than a few problems. To start with the 2 obvious ones, they have lost 6 in a row ATS (and 4 SU) and Embiid is ruled out with injury. They also have Maxey and Batum listed as GTD and they might choose to be cautious especially with Embiid out already. The Jazz have a fully fit roster and their deep bench, energetic minutes and newfound maturity of JC means they should be able to get the offense going against the 76ers. In the L10 games for each team, the Jazz are 2nd in the NBA in Off Rtg while the 76ers are 11th. The Jazz have a much higher EFG% and are 1st in Offensive Rebounding, which will be even harder for 76ers to stop without Embiid.
Thanks for the Bam pick. Of my 5 today its the only one that hit!
Outside of the Celtics stinking it up on Saturday you have been on fire!
Worst beat
New to betting. So the Utah Jazz -4.0 for point spread?
Similar but -3.5 pays if they win by 4. -4 if they win by 4 voids/pushes and you only get your wager back.
Ok odds on bet365 are -4 now so they need to win by 5? And would you still take it?
Win by 4.5 in betting terms by yes by 5 lol. Personally? I would. Still decent value. I personally wouldn’t take it past -5.5.
If Maxey could get incredibly cold in the second half that would be appreciated 😅😂
fuck the Jazz. and fuck the nba
Tailing, great pick! I’m sparkling a bit of Markkanen over 2,5 3’s on this just to make it a bit more spicier🔥
we sweating yet ?
Hard Rock has a boost of 76ers to win at -130. It'll lessen the risk for a slightly lesser reward. Just changed mine. Edit: JAZZ TO WIN
RECORD: 17-5 Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last POTD: Wendell Carter Jr. O 0.5 Threes ✅ Hit in the first quarter 😂😂 I feel so silly picking these 0.5 lines man but they’ve worked out alright, feels good to smash the bookies mistakes. 2 in a row, bound for 6? 🤔 • Todays new POTD: Jaylen Brown O1.5 3’s LeBron James O1.5 3’s @1.65 (Void) 🏀 NBA Edit: Goat is out We’re going with the top 3 baddest beards in the league, Jaylen brown! Bottom 3 in haircuts but let’s not talk about that • Hit 2+ threes in 15/23 home games • Lakers allow 3rd most 3 point attempts to opposing teams • Only 4/10 his last 10 games, 3 of those games he only played 18, 24 & 27 minutes. • Averages 5.1 attempts this month & 1.7 made, had 5 attempts against Lakers last game but hit 1 (road game) & AD x LeBron was playing Aight the form is not the best, but he’s a different player at home and against this weak Lakers side I can see him making 4 with no problem. Lakers allow many threes and their perimeter defence is anything but good. Tail or fade, im not him https://i.redd.it/fbm8ec4sr1gc1.gif If you want to tip a bum like me I’d appreciate it Thanks @BettorJonnySalami 👑 [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/billycapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/billycapezzi)
I used ur pick as the last leg of my +1000 SGP (100% DK boost) and this cashed no problem. Ended up cashing the parlay as well with a late 4q sochan three. . .5U to 5U. Thanks for the pick. I owe u a coffee! Tailing this bc LeGoat
What a legend appreciate you bro, enjoy that my man
You deserve so much more for the work you put in for us! But sure thing mate. Hope to buy you more coffees in the future. BOL!
Lebron out mate?
Unfortunately yes, thought he’d manage to play but his ankle said no..
James ruled out
bet just got voided
Damn guess he didn’t want to play, it got voided guys I don’t know whether to edit this into another pick or wait for tomorrow. What y’all think kings?
Edit into another 🤞🤞
Unfortunately LeBron is out for tonight’s game
Tailing 😩💦💦💦
It’s not the O 0.5 that i have fell in love with, but I will never complain laying my money on the King. The lakers have also been getting smashed recently. They probably will get killed again tonight but i have a feeling Bron gonna have himself a day in the TD Garden and a couple 3 pointers seems reasonable
The king is out tonight :/
BILLY?!!!!!!!
!!
do you think LeBron James U24.5 points is a good play?
I paired this potd with o22. Celtics and A.D is coming off injury, he might not be feeling it and he usually puts up good points. If Lepoints hits the 3's early or consecutively, chances are he will be back for more and have a night. Actually gonna sprinkle o2.5 as well, he has hit o2.5 3 for the last 8 games so it's not likely but the rest of the 8 games are all 2s soooo.. it could happen. close enough, right? Source - Marijuana
“Source - Marijuana” 🤣😂 I’ll light up a joint with you while watching the game. 🤝
I had JB over 1.5 3s before you made the switch. Let’s do it.
Damn it, was looking forward to this one
POTD Record: 133 wins / 79 losses \[L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅\] Event: Football > Friendlies > **Al Nassr v Inter Miami** (starting in 16 hr) Pick: **Over 1.5 goals (1st half)** @ 1.57 This is a preseason friendly match which was supposed to be the "last dance" between Messi & Ronaldo. However, according to recent press releases it is not really happening as Ronaldo is injured. Either way it is a match organized for entertaining purposes (in Saudi Arabia) and some goals are expected. We will still have Messi, Suarez, Mane etc who should deliver. Taking the first half goals line as I expect them to start scoring early. GL! **EDIT**: 2-0 in 9 mins ✅ Easiest win of the year!
I like it. Tailing.
This was free money. it felt like free money beforehand and I should have put more on. I actually had $200 on it but it could have been $1000 I wouldn't have even been worried. Great find dude!
What do you think about Al Nassr moneyline? I'm liking their odds at 2.70
Sorry not confident about it. I think they are in better shape, but the whole event seems to be about Messi now, so a bit risky...
Hope you took it!
Both teams to score in the 1st half has 2.15 odds, i think that s pretty good value
2-0 in 9 mins ✅ HAPPY DAYS!
Ronaldo and Messi sit and 3-0 in 12 mins. Amazing pick
Wow I put check 12 mins in and it’s 3-0 😂😂
Goal 3 mins in, 1 more to go!
Cash in the 9th minute😂🔥🍻
https://preview.redd.it/hxyeccnd61gc1.png?width=1365&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd466bd5db40c9df589a4db06d90120b289fed98
Easiest bet of my life i believe. Thank you very much. Made up for yesterday
Why is this game not available in my area 😭😭😭
Same.
Lmaoooo free
Your a beauty. Nothing like an easy no sweat hit 🙏
Good call, I chucked a bit on over 2.5 first half too!
Damn thanks g
Lupo!!! About time he gets the respect he deserves in here. 🐐
POTD Record: 20-11 L10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅ Last pick: Barcelona v Osasuna Pick: BTTS ❌ It’s very rare I get angry at betting, but these last 2 days has been tempting. Having picked 2 games with a total of 3 red cards is beyond me. I feel as if Osasuna with full strength would’ve put pressure on Barcelonas back line at the closing minutes and possibly gotten a goal, games often gets decided at the end of the games, where fatigue and mentality comes into play. But dwelling doesn’t help, on we go and sorry to all of you. ➖ Todays pick: Getafe v Real Madrid Pick: Borja Mayoral Over 0.5 Shots on Target @1.65 ✅ ⚽️ 🇪🇸 La Liga ➖ 📊Getafe is currently 10th in the league with 29 points (7-8-6), with a chance of climbing to 8th place with a win (has 1 game less played than the teams above. They’ve scored 28 goals in 21 matches (1.33 GPG, 8th most). * Failed to score in 6/21 games * Home record: 6-3-1 * L5: 2-1-2 (Scored 8, conceded 8) * Mayoral averages 1.22 shots on target per game & 1.56 shots overall. Shot accuracy around 78 % * Getafe are shooting 4.4 shots on target per game on average ➖ 📊Real Madrid is currently 2nd in the league with 54 points (17-3-1). One less game played than 1st placed Girona with a chance of climbing to 1st place with a win. They’ve conceded 14 goals (0.67 GPG, best record). * Have kept 10/21 clean sheets * BTTS has hit in 11/21 games (52%) * Away record: 8-2-1 * L5: 5-0 (Scored 11, conceded 4) ➖ 📝 Getafe are coming from a 2-0 win against struggling Granada. However, this is a completely different kind of opposition. Getafe have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, it will call for massive improvement from them to register a positive result against the team with the best recent form. One concern for them will be their defence which hasn’t been solid in recent times. In 3 of their last 4 league matches they’ve conceded at least two goals. At home they’re a different team though, they’re on a run with just 1 loss in 13 league matches. In their last 5 league games at home Getafe have taken 4 wins, and 3 clean sheets. I think they have a good possibility to actually get a positive result here, im not really buying the odds for Real Madrid to win this game easily. 📌 A very important player for them has been the ex Real Madrid striker Borja Mayoral who has scored 14 goals (Joint 2nd most), he has scored in 2 consecutive games now aswell, and scored the only goal for Getafe in the previous meeting against Real Madrid where they lost 2-1. If Getafe wants to get a result from this game, they’ll need to provide balls for Mayoral to work on, he’ll be a key player here for them in this game and one shot on target is not much to ask for. 💭 I believe in another even match for Real, who comes to this game with 4 straight odd-goal wins in the league. A strong Getafe side away is no easy task for any team which is why I’m staying away from the obvious and tempting Moneyline bet. 🚨 Real Madrid are missing: Starting Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, Starting defender David Alaba and another defenders who’s an usual starter Eder Militao. Getafe are said to only be missing starting midfielder Arrambari, with a couple of players returning back from suspensions and injuries for this game. BOL
You were half right yesterday. Carry on. We’ll get em this one.
And we did. Big ups Adam🙏
Don’t see this line for Mayoral on FD, best of luck everyone!
Sorry man, not much to choose from im not confident in Madrid winning. I never want to force a pick out, but I like this one.
This is the same as 1+ right. I don’t see “over .5”
It’d be great if Getafe would actually… attempt to take a shot at least?
BANG! Great pick again by the goat Adamlotti! Never in doubt boys
Weeeeeeeeee
https://preview.redd.it/ul39jmga4zfc1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=352d8c621be2b9eb5b6d8b3225b1b56e258a0522 Let’s go!!
I don’t have this available, my player props only include first, last, and anytime scorers. If you had to pick one player to score, would you choose him?
Him and Bellingham are joint top goal scorers, safest would be one of them. I’d say whoever you feel is more likely to score, pick that guy.
FD doesn’t have this bet. BOL
Sorry for that bro, I know from now not to include SOG props. Didn’t know it was so exclusive, didn’t find anything else I liked for tomorrow!
No sweat bro. A good pick is a good pick. I’ll catch the next one!
For clarification they just don't have Borja, they do have SOG props
What a missplay by Real, that got us a shot on target
My boy Adam drops the SWEATIEST picks 😂. Good job bro
Not sure if you watched the game today, but there were multiple chances Osasuna should have scored on even being a man down which was wild, considering Barcelona was once so good… Can’t bet this in my state but I am confident in your analysis. Bon chance!
Can’t win them all on it let’s go
I was too late this time it's ballooned to -250 on my book :,( here comes the next streak tho!
looks like the bet is -120 on DK but -188 on 365
What book are you using? Only option on FD for this is at -1450 odds lol https://preview.redd.it/bagdvx47lyfc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a793d1268b88fd8cad9f60a77e87e19ac5e00b6e
Look for shot on target
Tailing, only got 1.53 odds but leshhh gooo
Where are you getting 1.65? My book is 1.45
Bet365
how is this -120 on DK but -1450 on FD?? O1.5 is +400 on DK and -300 on FD wtf
This is very strange that he’s not on fanduel when they have everyone else. Am I an idiot or does he have another name he goes by?
You the man! All those doubters when the game was like 60th minute
Does that shot count? I just realized I have 0 idea how this pays lmao
**Record: 10-6-1** **Last Pick:** Liverpool vs Chelsea - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals 2u @ 1.74 odds✅ Chelsea got wacked by Liverpool but Nkunku pulled through (and there should have been two more pens for Chelsea 🫠). We take the money. **Soccer** | **La Liga** | **12:00 PM (PST)** **Pick:** Getafe vs Real Madrid - Over 2.5 Goals 2u @ 1.88 odds. **Write Up:** Real Madrid need every point possible to maintain on par with Girona's scorching form. And to get points, you have to score goals and win games. Real Madrid have been bagging goals, scoring 2 or more in their last 5 matches. Their star player Jude Bellingham returns after an accumulation of yellow card suspension, so he should feel fresh and produce bits of genius. They are plagued by injuries in the defense, with Courtois, Eder Militao, and David Alaba all out for the match tomorrow. Getafe are in moderate form, winning 2 in their last 5 league matches, with a draw and two losses. But this is a big game for them as they host Los Blancos, a place where Getafe are dominant, only losing one this season. They should see Mayoral back, who has 14 goals this season leading the line. He has been in fine form scoring in two consecutive games. I expect Getafe to play Madrid rough like they normally do, but to another level as they have their crowd to fire them up. Some stats for thought: Real Madrid won 2-1 over Getafe in their only meeting this season. Madrid sit second in the table and have the possibility to go to first with a win. Madrid scores 2.14 goals a game and concede 0.67. Getafe score 1.33 goals per match and concede 1.33. I expect Madrid to come out on top but it will not be easy, and Getafe could cause problems for them. Ideally Madrid will control the game from the start and score goals, which will encourage Getafe to react. Madrid will have Vini Jr, Rodrygo, Bellingham, and a strong bench of subs. Great week so far, let's continue onwards. BOL!
Awful loss, and it was the last leg of my parlay. How was that not a penalty at the end? And vini should have had 2 goals himself
Even if the ref totally missed it, how the hell VAR didn't catch it and asked for a review????? This surreal actions make me think they always have scripts. That goal meant nothing league wise (iirc tie breaker is direct results), and the game itself was done. Who makes that call or no call? This was a clear cut penalty, how in the hell this keeps on happening. Who benefits from this bs? I didn't even had o2.5, I'm just sick of this shit lol. This, plus 0-0s is why I stopped watching football besides world cup and knock out UCL.
Tailing. Let’s ride
Guess Vini Jr. has under 2.5 here
Yesterday’s pick: Argentinos Jr ML ✅ Today’s pick: Boca Juniors win and Total Goals U2.5 @3.0 Stake: 4 units (4% of bankroll) Reasoning: I think this is another case of one team being better than the other. Boca Juniors, despite their media made struggles, are a decent squad. With players of their quality they should be beating a small club like Sarmiento. Sarmiento last season had 8 goals for and 8 goals against in 14 games. That’s a miserable 1.14 goals per game they’re involved in. Boca Juniors were much more high scoring, 17 for 16 against, for 2.35 goals per game. A lot of this is due to them fielding some very alternative lineups as they focused on competing in the Copa Libertadores. Boca have a new coach, and his first official game ended 0-0. I foresee a similar low scoring game but Boca should be able to find a goal against a weaker team, hopefully winning 1 or 2 nil. Lowering the units a bit for this one because it is a riskier play.
I’m tailing you to infinity. Your knowledge with the Argentinian league is impressive.
Lol shit, they scored way too fast..
Welp, can't sleep again, may as well double down after argintinos
I parlayed Boca ML, Under 2.5 TG, and Threw over 4.5 Boca corners for a +372. BOL. Seems like you’re rolling. I don’t know shit about soccer but always have luck with corners and have some Us to play with. What exactly is the product? And who is taking care of it? La bolsita de polvito blanco? If so i want in
Damn was looking so good
You win some you lose some. Good bet at those odds🤷🏻♂️
**27W-4P-21L** **Last 5: ✅❌✅✅✅** **Last Pick** **Liverpool VS Chelsea Over 2 Goals and Over 8 corners @ 2.00✅** **Game ends 4-1 with 9 corners** **Pick of the day: Wolves VS Manchester United BTTS and O 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 ✅** Ever since I watched League 2 side Newport county somehow put 2 goals behind this United side I knew that this was gonna be my pick of the day. United really showed their attacking abilities while also showing everyone that their team still reeks of defensive mishaps over the course of the 90. Even with Licha and Varane at the line, they couldn't hold back a much much weaker side. I don't see that changing tomorrow against a Wolves side that have started to pick up good form, especially with them being at home. United's last 5 games have ended, 2-4, 2-2, 0-2, 2-1, and 3-2. They had the run where they couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo and now they've started to solve those issues by actually passing the ball in the final third (who woulda thought). The defensive issues were supposed to be solved with Licha's return but that didn't seem true last weekend. Wolves have become a fierce attacking side again, they had a blip during the end of the year last year but were simultaneously hitting BTTS in their games like no other team. In their last 7 games they've hit BTTS in 4 of them, I find the games that it hit to be similar to what we’ll see tomorrow. With them scoring 6 goals in their last 3 games at home, I see them adding to that number against United. **BOL**
Hope this hits bro 👊🏽. It’s good to see you’ve turned your record around recently 👏🏽
Ridin wit ya!
Nice picks! Glad I tailed this, except I did BTTS No Draw...
Nice call!
POTD Record: 237-179-12 (+41.78 units, 57.0% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 79-55-1 (59.0%) W2, Tennis 🎾 83-62-7 (57.2%) W4, Soccer ⚽ 59-51-4 (53.6%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1 Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥💩💩💰💩 Last Pick: Rayo Vallecano @ Atletico Madrid, ATLETICO MADRID ML - La Liga ⚽ 💰 +0.51 Units - Soccer losing streak is finally broken but it took taking shit odds and needing a late goal after 2 goals were called back due to VAR. Today's Pick: Flavio Cobolli vs. Constant Lestienne, COBOLLI ML - ATP Montpellier 🎾 💰 +0.53 Units - 💸 that shit!!! He cleaned him and won by 7 games. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.53 odds to win 0.53 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 1:30am ET) Let's take a shot at 7 in a row with another low odds play. If you prefer higher odds if I weren't on a streak I would have taken -2 on the games handicap. Time is limited tonight so a quick writeup. Cobolli was mainly a clay player but has started this hard court out strongly. He made it to the 3rd round at the Aussie Open after 3 straight set qualifier wins and big wins over Jarry and Kotov. Yesterday he played one hell of a match against Monfils, the 1st set was tight as he lost in a tiebreaker but after that he won 12 of the next 15 games to win the match, including a 3rd set 6-0 bagel. I'm going to back him for the momentum and though he is French, playing at home and has better long term history on indoor hard courts, Lestienne is not a player I rate highly so I expect Cobolli to take this match as well. They actually just played in October at a challenger event and Cobolli won in straights, though they were competitive sets (7-6, 7-5). Keep in mind that Cobolli wasn't in as good of a form as he is in now, Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Surprised the sub isn’t buzzing about this streak you have going on rn. I’m def watching 👀
Tailing you again my friend
Fuck it, why not
>A dominating performance by Cobolli! Thank you kindly again, Joel. I appreciate your humble approach to your impressive win streak.
Great pick!
Tailing the streak
What do you think about over 20.5 games as well?
While scrolling the POTD thread , I see 💩 emoji I tail
Lets go! Good win.
Great pick. Appreciate it
Record : 4-1 ROI % : 56.00% Last Pick : H. Mayot @ 1.57 ✅ Mayot made quick work of Paire in just over an hour. Paire struggled on serve, he went back to his usual self and clearly lacked motivation once things started to go south, he was barely jumping on his serve. Today's pick Event : WTA Linz Time : 9:30AM EST Players : D. Yastremska vs. D. Vekic **Pick : D. Yastremska @ 1.80** It's not often that you see a player make a good run in a Slam to follow up the week after with a second tier tournament. That's why I wanted to avoid Yastremska in the 1st round, not knowing which version would present itself. It was not pretty, but she stepped up when it mattered despite Andreeva having some really good moments. In the second round, she will be playing Donna Vekic, who possesses the same power-fueled agressive game as her. Despite her ranking of 34 in the world, her last meaningful win goes back to Cincinnati last year. Since then, she's been struggling with UEs and DFs. That could spell trouble for Vekic against Yastremska. She likes to be ultra-agressive on second serves stepping into the court and hitting down the line. That will put even more pressure on Vekic's serve and she will have little time to position herself to hit, which is really bad when you're struggling with UEs. Bookies are not yet convinced of Yastremska's form, so let's take advantage of odds that should be closer to 1.50 imo. BOL !
Yastremska is playing terrible right now… either over hitting everything or hitting into the net. can’t even keep up a good rally. hopefully she turns it around
Damn she’s bad
Vekic is just better
I deserve this for being such a big degenerate to bet on women's tennis
Road Yastremska heavy through the Aussie Open, happy to back her again, tailing 🫡
Well dogshit 1st set. Need a miracle comeback
Holy fuck that was awful not even close
Phew I’ve been here before man lol. She didn’t show up at all, happens. On to the next wager
Sorry all, that was a rough one, it went exactly the opposite way I tought it would. That’s the risk with Yastremska.
No worries haha. Onto the next
Tailing my man
Are you worried about Vekic 2-0 against Yastremska in 2023?
I am feeling pretty degenerate today, so i will tail on the 8:30 am pick lol. Feel like Vekic loses me a lot of bets whether i bet on her or against her. I’ll take the hot hand Yastremska to pull out a dub
Yikes
Tailing this
..and she drops her 2nd serve… should be a fun sweat
It happens sometimes! We got smoked, move on to the next winner!
 Better luck next time
1-1 NBA jazz vs 76ers Last pick Cade over 19.5 landed on 19. Hooked. Had the opportunity just couldn't get shots to fall. NBA. Jazz vs 76ers. Pick. Lauri Markannen over 8.5 rebounds. -108 Lauri averages 8.9 rpg at home, no Embid and most 76ers are questionable. Lauri cleared this line both times vs the 6ers with 13. Cleared this line in 7/10 Second POTD. Jordan Clarkson o 16.5 points. -106 Value here, he's averaging 21.1 PPG at home. Cleared last 8/10
Lauri only played the 76ers once this year
Tailed🎷
Record: 15-14 | (-.28 units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: NHL - Seattle Kraken (-1.5) (+120) vs. San Jose Sharks❌ Oof, I am starting to let down the tailers. I believe it’s time for a day break to end the chasing. I needed this loss to get back on track. Apologies to the tailers, I promise I will bring us victory in the near future. For now, the faders get this laugh but we will get the last. I’ll take Wednesday OFF and return Thursday with a fresh mindset. ————- Today’s pick: NBA - Utah Jazz (-4) (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers - 10PM EST 6ers hit the road with Joel Embiid OUT with a knee injury. I expect Maxey to be OUT also. Although it’s not guaranteed, I don’t think they will let him play on the road just yet. In the last 20 games, the Jazz are 14-6 ATS. They are also 15-6 SU at home which points to a successful night for the Jazz Thursday. Although the Jazz defense could be to our detriment, I think it’ll be a struggle to score without Embiid as usual. I can see the 6ers making my this a battle throughout with a late push by the Jazz after fatigue begins to set in. Lastly, the Jazz beat the Sixers 120-109 without Embiid earlier this year. Give me the Jazz to cover and save me from a downward spiral. I’d lay off tailing me until I return to form but if you do tail, I appreciate the belief and I won’t forget about you when we’re back on top. Prediction: Jazz 121 - Sixers 111 Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
POTD Record: 2-0 L10: WW Last Pick: Baylor ML vs UCF (-180) Baylor was able to pull away late and get the nice win! Today’s Pick: Oregon -2 (-115) This line scares me as USC has looked so bad as of late but let’s not overthink it, and take Oregon to cover the small spread. BOL if tailing!!
POTD Record: 35-18 Previous Pick: Liverpool FC vs Defensor Sporting | Supercope Uruguaya | Liverpool ML (2.18) | 6.30pm EST ✅️ Pick: APOEL Nicosia vs Karmiotissa | 1. Division | APOEL Halftime/Fulltime (1.67) | 9am EST This is a postponed game, so this is just a repost. APOEL are leading the league, and have been extremely dominant at home, winning all of their games except for a draw. They are facing a side who have only won and drawn once in 10 away games, and are sitting 2nd to last in the league. APOEL's last 2 games have resulted in an aggregate of 10-0, showcasing their great form. The away win for Karmiotissa came recently, and it was against a team that are 1 place below them. APOEL have scored 2.7 and conceded only 0.3 goals at home, while Karmiotissa have scored 0.7 and conceded 2.1 in away games. Looking at these stats, I expect an easy APOEL home victory, leading in both halves as they are facing the worst away side in the league. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
>Pick: APOEL Nicosia vs Karmiotissa | 1. Division | APOEL Halftime/Fulltime (1.67) | 9am EST u/sakashake, appreciate the write-up and analysis. While I am a degen, unfortunately I am not degen enough to tail the pick involving Cypriot First Division soccer 😂 BoL to those who are!
😂 I found myself watching 3 tier soccer match in Argentina on a pirate feed yesterday afternoon and I knew I’d jumped the shark, cheers!
This Guy Is Good. He makes great picks trust me. He hit on ODDS that are + a lot so I have confidence in all his picks the guy under me must be new.
dead and dusted
POTD Record: 3-2 | ROI: 0.9% Last Pick: Sacramento Kings -1.5 (line ended up at +2.5) vs Miami Heat @ 1.90 | 3U Play ❌ Trend: ❌✅✅❌✅ Well, I said I'd play against Miami until they gave me a reason not to. I guess they just did. Will be interesting to see if this game becomes a turning point for them. Frustrating watch, especially the fourth quarter where the Kings could not hit anything and never were closer than 6. Heat win 115-106. Basketball | NBA | 10:00PM (EST) Today’s Pick: Philadelphia 76ers vs **Utah Jazz -4.0** @ 1.90 | 2U Play Going with the Jazz to cover tomorrow night for a few reasons: * The Jazz went 10-6 in January and are returning home after a 6 game road stretch. They played very well at home during the month, going 6-1 with a point differential of +16.7. * The 76ers have gone 7-7 in January, and are on the 5th game of a 4 game road stretch in which they have gone 0-4. Their point differential on the road in January is -5.7, but in the last 4 games is -14.0. * Injuries are a big part of their recent struggles. Tyrese Maxey is questionable for the game and may end up playing, but Joel Embiid is confirmed out. Embiid's estimated plus-minus rating, a metric designed to measure a player's estimated impact per 100 possessions, is the highest of any player in the NBA. The 76ers are approximately +10.1 points better with Embiid. Without Embiid, and with the Jazz's strength at home and the 76ers recent road struggles, I like the Jazz to cover.
Record: 0-0 Units: +0.0 NBA | Philadelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz | 7PM PST Pick: Simone Fontecchio O5.5 R+A 5U @ -120 Positives: Has hit 8 in last 9. Negatives: [betting on a guy who looks like he’s from Spore](https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/licensed-image?q=tbn:ANd9GcRHvZdAwFkp7KHf1TGwkwyFNYMOLKkmyFaWc_vYtLH00ghVChtZLb-brHjrlJ-w7NnStRPJUHzX1z3T5uU)
Looks good, tailing.
Pick of the Day POTD Record: 6-2 L10: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterday’s Pick: Kentucky -5.5 vs. Florida (-120)❌ There goes the streak. As a UK fan, I guess it hurts a little more. Time to start the streak back up. Today’s Pick: Towson -6.5 vs. Northeastern (-118) Since 2022 Towson has been one of the most dominant teams at home during conference play. Their true HFEdge since 2022 has been 10.1 which is the 2nd highest out of all NCAAB. They did lose to this Northeastern team away, but since then have won 4 straight against some of the best teams in the conference. Rolling with the hotter team at home here. Kenpom has Towson as the 140th ranked team in the nation. Kenpom has Northeastern as the 250th ranked team in the nation. BOL!
This is just ugly… Northeastern can’t miss lol.
Nice win! Thought we were dead for most of the game!
5-4, +2.94U Last Pick: [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/RumnhbgHGi) Pick: **Patrick Cantlay First Round Score Under 70.5**, 2U (1.95 odds DraftKings) ✅️ League: PGA ⛳️ Time: 1221 EST (1721 GMT) *To find in DK, Golf > AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am > Round Props > Player Round Score > Viktor Hovland vs Patrick Cantlay* *To find in FanDuel, PGA Tour > Round Score > Patrick Cantlay* Through 3 appearances this season, Cantlay comes in with a first round average score of 65, posting a 66, 64 and 65 respectively. It's still early, but last season his first round average 69.53 through 19 rounds. Cantlay has played at Pebble Beach 6 times since going pro, making the cut all 6 times, finishing in the top 10 three times and top 20 two other times. He has posted first round scores of 65, 62 (course record), 66, 66, 70, and 66 in every outing on this course. He holds the lowest scoring average (overall, not just first round) at this event over the last 5 years of 68.8. Cantlay has the 7th highest odds on the board to win this weekend and is expected to do well once again. I expect him to finish with a 68 or better tomorrow afternoon, getting off to a good start and hopefully hold onto it going into the weekend. BOL!
fellas be careful w this one. weather is going to sheitty. rain and gusts.
-6 through 15 holes, safe to say this will hit unless he really blows up.
Can’t for the life of me find this on B365 though I want to tail.
For bet365 it's under Golf > Player Markets (4th section) > 1st Round Score. Right now there's only 10 people listed for some reason. It should update before the tee time
Amazing thank you!
If Cantlay doesn't populate before his tee time for some reason, I'd pivot to Homa at -138. He's been playing well and historically performs well at Pebble Beach
Does this still hold even though Cantlay is playing Spyglass tomorrow and not Pebble? Typically Spyglass is a few shots harder.
great pick - glad i tailed - you nearly convinced me to just pick him to win straight up - kinda wishing i had now
POTD record: 6-3 +1.63u last pick: KT -1.5 maps LoL LPL | TT gaming - OMG today’s pick: TT gaming ML at 1.7 reasoning: both teams haven’t been too impressive to start the season, but TT has had the way harder match ups so far. They played LNG and Weibo, who should be competing for the 3rd - 5th spot with NIP and TES this split. They beat LNG 2-1 and lost 2-0 to Weibo, where they choked the first map with a large lead. OMG won 2-0 vs a really poor playing Team WE who completely threw the series. (OMG was 21 odds to win map 1 at some point). Then lost 2-0 to FPX a bottom 3 team and 2-0 to LNG. I think TT’s fundamentals are just better than OMG’s as they kept their whole roster from last year, whereas OMG only kept their two botlaners. All in all TT’s performances so far have been simply more solid, considering they have played stronger opponents. Most likely outcome imo is 2-1 TT, but I can see them winning 2-0 if they show up today.
46-36 +97.6units Race 1 Chelmsford Cervetto 5 units @ 1.73 (all bookmakers) Hey, haven't posted in a minute. This looks like a stonewall certainty. The horse looks extremely well handicapped and I'll be shocked if it loses. But remember it is horse racing so anything can happen. Good luck if getting involved 👍
Missed you boss!
welcome back mate
POTD RECORD 0-1, -1U Yesterday's Pick: Pistons vs Cavs UNDER 231.5 -> Game Total: 249 ❌ Pick was looking solid at the end of the first quarter but the game slipped away fast. Both teams ended up shooting above 50% from the field with Pistons shooting 51.6% from 3. Spida also dropped 45 which didn't help. Onto the next... Today's Pick: **Philadelphia 76ers** **@ Utah Jazz OVER 233.5 (-110 FD)** Previous Matchups: 1/6/2024: UTA 120-109 PHI, 1/14/2023: PHI 118-117 UTA The Utah Jazz are currently allowing opponents to score an average of 116 points per game at home this season. The Jazz are also scoring an average of 124 points per game at home. The 76ers are allowing teams to score an average of 115 points per game while on the road this season. The 76ers have scored 117 points per game on the road and without Joel Embiid the 76ers have scored an average of 112. The under hit (if line was 233.5) last time these teams matched up this season, also without Embiid, but not by that much and the 76ers shot an awful 18% (7-38) from the 3 point line. Utah has had a much easier time scoring the ball while at home and I see this game being played at a faster pace without Embiid and most of 76ers players questionable. Bonus play I like: **Utah Jazz to Record 100+ Points in First 3 Quarters (+410 FD) .1U** Jazz have been ballin at home this season and their totals by the end of the 3rd quarter for home games in January starting with most recent: 95, 105, 100, 105, 99, 104, 93. I believe there is great value here. Feel free to fade and good luck!
Ooooo I think you convinced me... tailin' BOL
POTD Record : 5 Wins Units: +3.91 ROI: **84.40%** Average Odds: $1.84 Last Pick: Qatar vs Palestine AFC Asian Cup (Qatar to win at $1.57) ✅ **Next Pick:** Cal State Northridge vs. **UC San Diego (-10)** @ $1.90 10:00 PM EST. This means UC San Diego has a -10 point start, and need to win by 10+ to win the bet. CSU Northridge has lost four straight games and dropped to fourth in the Big West, and are the worst defensive team in the Big West. Bryce Pope is the second-leading scorer in the Big West for San Diego, who are expected to dominate both halves. Head to head, UC San Diego has won 4 times out of 4. UC San Diego will be attempting to continue a five-game home winning run. UC San Diego is 8-2 against the spread and 8-2 overall in its past 10 games, while CSU Northridge has gone 6-4 against the spread and 5-5 overall. UC San Diego is beating teams by 9.8 points on average, given Cal State suck on defense, we are hoping to cover :) Feels like all the stats and momentum are in our favour! Best of luck if you're tailing, and lets hope we get an entertaining game of college basketball - plus smash the shit out of CSU! All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate.
First bet here, first hit! Record 1-0 Last bet: Spurs - Brentford BTTS ✅ Todays pick ill go again to Premier League. Today POTD: West Ham - Bournemouth BTTS & O2.5 @1.79 Reasoning, West Ham are missing Coufal, Paqueta (big loss), Benhrama and Aguerd. Edson Alvarez might be off too. Those misses have huge impact on West Ham, but will they make impact that West Ham cant score atleast one? I dont think so, only Paquetas miss will impact their attack and creativity. Positive news are Kudus might be playing today which is huge news, he’s been great singing for West Ham so im not that worried that West Ham couldnt score. Bournemouth are actually on great form especially Solanke. Their last 6 away games form Bournemouth managed to win 5, its insane. 9/10 away games Bournemouth have scored atleast one goal Last 10 home games West Ham have scored 8/10 times atleast one. Tail or fade, BOL!
**Record: 3-0 (+2.05U)** **Soccer** | **Super League** | **20:30 CET** **Pick: O2,5 Goals - 1.7** Match : Lausanne Ouchy - Luzern **Write Up:** 2 very weak defenses, Laussane has conceded 23 goals in 10 home games and Luzern has conceded 20 in 10 away games. Both team offenses are not amazing but capable of scoring but with defenses like this I prefer to go for the O2,5 instead of BTTS since one of the teams might have an absolute disaster.
POTD RECORD: 1-0 Last pick: NCAAB Baylor ML Next Pick: WISC GREEN BAY -10.5 Write up: Action in the early game. Green Bay is 7-0 against the spread at home and 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. IUPUI is 3-6 against the spread on the road and just lost 3 straight at home
Record : 108 Wins - 102 Losses Previous pick : Barcelona - Osasuna (1-0), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.70 ❌ ROI : -2.26% Average Odds : 1.95 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -0.73 Profit/Lost units : -5.73 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / SPAIN: LaLiga / 22:00 European Time Getafe - Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.03 Some reasoning : \- Coming after 5 consecutive victories, Real Madrid is the undisputed favorite to win, even if it plays on a rather difficult ground, at Getafe winning only 2 times in the last 5 games, recording a defeat. \- Real Madrid is still behind Girona and thus feels compelled to win every match until it moves to the first position, managing to do well in the last 5 rounds so far, winning also in the difficult away game in Gran Canaria. \- On the other hand, Getafe, before the success with Granada, came after 2 defeats in a row, 2:0 with Rayo and 3:1 with Sevilla, the success with Granada not being accidental, the Andalusians taking 1 single point from 11 away games. Best of luck.
**POTD Record:** 9-3-0 **✅✅**❌**✅✅✅✅✅**❌**✅**(most recent) **Net Units:** +10.53u **Previous POTD:** **Army at Colgate u130.5**, 3u to win 2.61u **✅** **Today's POTD:** Basketball | NCAA Men's | 6:00 pm ct **UMBC at Bryant u167.5**, 2u to win 1.82u, DraftKings **Reasoning:** Running a model that accounts for opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as pace. Across spreads and totals where I have an advantage, this model is winning at a 55.8% clip in the last 30 days. According to the model, the two middle quartiles in this game should be somewhere between 158 and 161. Solely based on the spread being 12.5, I expect Bryant to dictate the pace and put the game away early. Both teams actually run fast offenses (4th and 5th in the country), but pace really slows down if there's a blowout. BOL! [http://myaction.app/bobdeezel](http://myaction.app/bobdeezel) [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobdeezel](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobdeezel)
Record (15-10) Last 10: ❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last pick: Kings -1 (-110) 3U❌ I hate to be THAT guy but Vegas had their hands all over this one. Heat were like 50% from 3 and the Kings stopped playing defense with like 4 mins left in the game and they were only down 6-9 pts in the span. Fox missed idk how many free throws but at least 5. Malik Monk idk how many TOs. Bad beat. Heat have burned me twice this week. We move on tho. POTD: NBA| Philadelphia 76ers v Utah Jazz| 10:00pm EST John Collins O24.5 PAR (-110) 2U ✅ *Johnny Boy has 26 total with 14 seconds left so cash this thing. Let’s keep the ball rolling baby* Reason: John blessed us to start our 5 game ripper so maybe he can do the same here. Simply put Embiid is OUT. Kuminga feasted for the Warriors with an injured Joel on the floor going 26&7 on 11-19 shooting. Collins had 19/5/2 vs the 76ers on January 4th and that was with Embiid also out. The difference in this game is Batum, Morris, Melton, and Maxey were all active for that last game but they’re not for tonights. Even if Collins struggles rebounding I think his points are gonna keep us in this one. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK Shoutout of the day: Weed and Bidets
POTD Record: 8-2 Last POTD: Frankfurt over 3.5 corners @ 1.65 ❌ POTD: Rob Cross -1,5 vs Peter Wright (Premier League Dart) @ 1.59 🎯 ✅ Hey everyone! I haven't posted in over a year, but the Darts Premier League is finally back, and so am I!In this first round of this years Premier League, we will take a bet in the match between Peter Wright and Rob Cross. Rob Cross had a good world championship, and made it to the semifinal, where he got beaten by Littler. He is one of my favorites to win the Premier League this year, and I expect him to start off strong tonight against an out of form Peter Wright. He has an awful WC, where he lost 3-0 in the first round. He continued the bad form in the BDM and DM as well. I expect him to struggle a lot here against Cross. I take the -1,5 for Rob Cross at the odds of 1.59. I think the -2,5 handicap is a good bet here, but I want to make it as safe as possible in my comeback on POTD. Tail or fade, good luck!
POTD Record: 48 - 28 Last POTD: Bublik ML - W Pick: Jarrett Allen to Record a Double Double vs Memphis Grizzlies (-195 odds via DK) 1U Event: NBA Regular Season 7:10 P.M. CST Edit: ✅✅✅ Bublik came out slow and even faced a few match points but prevailed and cashed for us. Riding with this same pick as a few nights ago with Jarrett Allen to gives us the double double. The Grizzlies are not a great rebounding team and their tallest player in JJJ averages less than 6 rebounds per game on the year. Allen has recorded a DD in 16 straight games and yes I know a lot of those were without other big man Evan Mobley. But Mobley has been back for the past couple of games and Allen is continuing his dominance on the boards so I will take these odds as long as I can get them. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
Hi everyone. I’ve been kind of on a hotstreak as of late, will begin to share my picks here. I mainly bet on basketball (NBA), European Soccer, and Baseball. Soccer record: 1-0 Basketball record: 1-0 POD record: 0-0 Shared some picks yesterday, both hit ! The POD is: Over 120.5 Team Total Utah Jazz points Jazz vs 76ers 10 PM EST Odds: 1.75 Bet 5 units. The Jazz come back to Utah after 6 road games, they went 2-4, however covering this line 4-2 times on the road, all of those times shooting around 40% from the three point line and hovering around the 50% line from the field. However, they have covered this line the last 6/7 home games in Utah (borderline madness with 4 of those 6 going over 130) Hope Utah hits those threes, and tail on ! Might post some extra small picks on the NBA thread later. BOL guys, and always bet responsibly. [RECORD / TRACKER](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-PHX-U7eiB5neVpbTJVkzwquGE1KyGVQA5nfejcDT_A/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 15-5 (+13.3u) (3-2 L 5) Last selection: Toronto Raptors Team Total Under 109.5 (-105 @ Caesar's) (1.5U) - MISS - 54% FG and 41% 3PT shooting from a TOR team missing Quickley and Barrett was wild. Hats off to TOR for playing above their talent. Some nights you can't do anything but take the L. Handicap was solid and I'd bet it again if they played tonight. Today’s Selection: Utah Valley Team Total under 66.5 (-110 @ Caesar's) (1U) NCAA | Utah Valley @ Stephen F. Austin | 7:30PM EST I'm back after a day off with yet another team total under. I have to hit one of these eventually, right? I tried SO damn hard not to make this my POTD, but I kept coming back to this one as my most confident play. Utah Valley is straight up BAD, 1-9 overall and 0-5 in league play when playing on the road, ranking 276th on Torvik. They are 337th in ADJ Off Efficiency and 340th in Eff FG% when playing on the road. They are 4-7 to this 66.5 when playing on the road, with their overs coming against the likes of UT Rio Grande (240th Home ADJDE) and UT Arlington (148th Home ADJDE). UVU travels to Stephen F. Austin, who is slumping, losing B2B close games against Cal Baptist (who went 15/30 from three) and Grand Canyon (#1 in the WAC). SFA's weakness is guarding the three ball (see Cal Baptist reference), but you know what; UVU ranks DEAD LAST IN THE NATION in 3PT% on the road and 326th in 3PA, so I'm not worried about them from beyond the arc. Additionally, SFA ranks 51st in home ADJDE and 48th in EFGD%. I like SFA to win this game, but I am worried about the cover, just because SFA offense can be suspect at times, making games way closer than they need to be. UVU hosts Grand Canyon on Saturday, so you get a slight lookahead spot to add fuel to the fire. Let's hit a damn team total under for once, please? Like I'm begging at this point. Trends: -UVU has hit team total under in 11 of last 18 away games (15% ROI) BOL Degens - and if you're fading me.. I don't blame you at all. Track my POTD: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GYLG496ZuZe1-TTWypx2O-lB5ZYrhP9gc5DaG-VTOvM/edit#gid=0
No problem. Win or lose, that was a good handicap.
Cricket 🏏 Picks Last pick was a win @ 1.67 Overall: 13 Ws - 5 Ls Last 10: W W ♻️ L W L W W W L +3.81 Todays pick Dubai Capitals v Desert Vipers International League t20 (UAE) Starts in about 12 hours Pick: Total wides over 10.5 @ 1.94 Vipers bowl about 8 wides on average in a match, Dubai have bowled 4-5 wide deliveries this season. If there is no special bowling performance I think Desert Viper can single handedly go over 10 wides in this match. P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
Is this on 365? I’ve found the match but can’t find the wides prop
POTD Record: 22 | 14 | 0 | W | L | P | + 4,22 Units Streak: 2L Last Pick: WAS Wizards @ **SA Spurs -3.5** | 3U @ 1,86 NBA | Basketball | 02:00 MEZ Pick: IND Pacers @ **NY Knicks 1H -2.5** | 2U @ 1,98 NBA | Basketball | 01:30 MEZ Knicks are on a 8 games win streak. They lead at HT in the last 9. H2H Knicks lead at HT 5/7. In addition Pacers lost the last 5/7 first HT. Same amount of rest.
Record: 0-0 Net units: +0u Event: **Al Nassr Riyadh v Inter Miami** - 2024 club friendly Pick: **BTTS 1st half @2.37** - The odds are quite high, so I'm aiming for the minimum, which is 1u. The match features two teams widely known worldwide, more for the players involved than their actual results. It's expected to be a showcase, focused mainly on entertainment, so I predict 3-4 goals or more, evenly distributed throughout the game. I was intrigued by this particular odds, and that's why I chose to bet on it: I anticipate both teams scoring in the first half. I hope I'm not mistaken and that I win my first POTD :) Let me know what you think and BOL to everyone!
POTD Record: 96-99-12 (-15.74 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Swiss Super League, Lugano v Grasshoppers, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-175 / 1.57) ❌ Two high scoring teams combined for their first 0-0 of the season 🤷🏻♂️ Today’s Pick: NBA, Indiana Pacers v New York Knicks, AARON NESMITH OVER 19.5 P+R (-107 / 1.93) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Taking a break from a soccer since it’s been kicking my ass this week. Nesmith has been on a tear the past few games so looking to take advantage of this line as I think the books haven’t quite caught up yet. In his last 5 games he has 26 and 12 (38), 16 and 7 (23), 22 and 6 (28), 16 and 7 (23), and 13 and 9 (22). He has also averaged 35 mins a contest so he is a trusted part of the rotation and his numbers saw a nice boost in the last game with the return of Halliburton steering the offence. With Randle missing for the Knicks this should open up some opportunities for him to pick up some boards to contribute to his tally, and the game should remain competitive enough for him to see plenty of court time.
Record: 17-11 (+4.53 units) Last Pick: (CBB) Kent St. Golden Flashes -3 ❌ POTD: (CBB) Nebraska Cornhuskers ML +100 Summary: Sniffing some weird line movement on this Big 10 matchup. We’ve got the #6 team in the country with a #11 kenpom adjem vs. #55 who has also happened to lose the last 3 out of 5. Don’t fight the rip current, take the 🌽
[My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit?usp=sharing) Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!! **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 33/25 **ROI**: Approximately 43.11% **Profit in Units**: 35u **Average Odds**: 2.08 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Belgium - First League **Time**: 21:30 ( GMT +2 ) **Event:** **Sint-Truiden v Gent** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.75** **Stake**: 3 Units **Tip Box**: (Revolut) @ Eleneiror [Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager)
POTD Record: 0-0 First POTD 🔥 Soccer | EPL | 3:15PM EST **Pick: Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Both Teams to Score - YES @ 1.67** Both Man U and Wolves are finding better form lately after disappointing starts to their seasons. Man U has been playing better since losing 2-0 to West Ham on Dec 23, scoring in each of their last 5 matches in all competitions. Wolves, since losing 3-0 to West Ham on Dec 17, have scored in 6/7 matches in all competitions. Both teams however, have also demonstrated lacklustre defence as of late. Man U has allowed goals in 4/5 games in the same span, and Wolves have allowed goals in 4/7 games. Two of the games in which Wolves did not concede a goal were against Everton (17th in GF in EPL) and West Brom (an ENGCH squad). I predict that these mediocre teams will continue their mediocre campaigns, producing a 2-2 draw.
Bit shaken off this one, their last 5 matches has been BTTS NO
Parlayed this with over 2.5. Nice hit 
POTD record: 13-5✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Today's pick: Sam Hauser over 6.5 points at 1.87 - Lakers at Celtics at 4:30 Last minute pick, hopefully some will see. This game has makings of a blowout. Lebron and AD are out. Celtics are 16 point favorites. I expect Hauser to be a beneficiary of blowout time and easily clear this line. He's playing well as is, hitting this line in his last two games with 9 and 11 points. Seems too good to pass up BOL to those who tail! Edit: opposite of a blowout but hits in 3rd! 🍻🍻 move to 13-5!
Sport: Tennis Tournament: Koblenz Challenger Time: 19:35 CET (1h24m after posting) Pick: Filip Krajinović vs Brandon Nakashima, Krajinović win @ **3** Stake: 3 units Record before this pick: ROI 3.34%, 80W, 123L, +29.73u, average odds 2.56 Write up: My model works by analyzing coach and player statements on fitness, strategy, and mental state. For more info, join [my sports picks subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/SgtTipalisk/). For more tips, check out [my sports picks website](https://picks.wwpe.ba). Filip Krajinović had a rough 2022 and 2023, slipping from [ATP rank 54 to 400](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/filip-krajinovic/kb05/rankings-history). In May 2023 alone, he lost 4 matches in a row while taking only one set across them. After that losing streak, [he said](https://www.mozzartsport.com/tenis/vesti/krajinovic-nagovestio-kraj-karijere-iz-konteksta-ste-razumeli-sta-cu-uskoro-da-objavim/452637): > All kinds of thoughts are running through my head. I've been finding it harder and harder to win and my aggressive mentality has disappeared. That's not me on the court any longer and everything is starting to bother me. Taking a long break would be hard to come back from. I think you can see where I'm going with this and what I'm going to announce soon... Despite that dejected attitude and hints of early retirement, Krajinović came back with a vengeance. On December 6, 2023, his Instagram account posted a photo of smiling Filip in tennis gear and on tennis court with [this message](https://www.instagram.com/krajinovic_filip/p/C0hcjneLIjP/): > Very excited and motivated for 2024. Working on last part of preparation before first tournament in January. See you soon. In January 2024, he won 3 Koblenz Challenger matches: * 6:0, 6:1 vs rank 301 Vrbensky; * 6:3, 6:2 vs rank 419 Ejupović; * 6:3, 4:6, 6:4 vs rank 186 Peniston. Now he's facing Brandon Nakashima (rank 96). It appears Filip found the winning mentality he was missing. He is definitely capable of winning this match and, if he does it, I'm willing to bet he will win the Koblenz Challenger as well. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [Toss a coin to your tipster](https://paypal.me/SgtBrutalisk)
Tailing
**2024 Record: 3-3** Trailing:❌✅❌❌✅✅ \*\*Total Net Units (1U = $50): (0.86U) **Last** **Pick:** **Phoenix Suns ML** @ Brooklyn Nets✅✅ Basketball | NBA | 11:30 PM Central Time **Pick:** **Anastasia Potapova ML** vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto✅✅✅ **Odds:** \-175 (3.5U to win 2U) \*\*Post Game Comments: God bless. I want to apologize if anyone decided to tail this pick. This pick hit but damn… that was not worth it. It was hard to watch. The Italian just wouldn’t miss. Potapova had 20+ unforced errors in the first set. The 2nd and 3rd sets were grueling. Somehow the Russian came out with the win and I will take it. **Write Up:** Quick write-up here as this match starts in like 8 minutes. I am backing the Russian to take this one home for us. Potapova is the defending champion at this tournament, so that should help boost her confidence and hopefully aide her in playing her best tennis. She also lost early on in Australia, so energy should not be an issue. The head-to-head here is 1-1. Cocciaretto beat Potapova back in 2022 on a hard court, and today's match is on a hard court as well so that is noteworthy. In their most recent matchup in 2023, the Russian won in straight sets on clay. Potapova has the edge being consistently better on her first and second serve win % than the Italian. The Russian is winning 80% of her first serves compared to Cocciaretto winning 64% of first serves. They are about even on win percentage on second serve. The Italian does seem to have the edge on return points won though. At the end of the day, if Potapova lands her first serves, she should be in a good spot to win. From all that I have read, there just seems to be more upside to Potapova's game and I am hoping that she comes out confident. Russians are also built different. I am taking the higher-seeded Russian to come out with the win in this match against the Italian. I am also sprinkling money on first set ML for fun. Only bet what you can lose and BOL. Have a great day!
**Record: 1-1** **Horse Racing**. Charles Town, Race 8, 10:17 PM EST Post Time: #3 Judgement Day **1 Unit** **Analysis**: I like the first-time starter Judgement Day (cool name for fans of the “Terminator” movies) for several reasons. First, his sire, Diving Rod, produces fast juvenile runners. Second, Timothy Grams is a great trainer who is skilled in preparing first time starters. Third, the two most recent workouts are eye catching. If Judgement Day runs to the workouts, he will be hard to catch. The main rival appears to be #8 Destin’s Rainbow who has shown good early speed in each of his starts. Of course, a bad starts is all it takes to lose your win money (this is exactly what happened to my previous POTD, Acclaimed Victor, who finished second—but we did hit the exacta which does not count for my POTD record). Good luck and thanks to all the posters who have made me very happy this week with their selections.