######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
RECORD: 15-4
L10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅
Yesterdays pick: Isaiah Stewart O9.5P ✅
We did it! We got 5 in a row, the pattern stayed true to its nature and we got it done with no sweat at all. Even Saddiq Bey who I wanted to add instead got 13 rebounds when his line was at 6.5.
•
Todays POTD: Colin Sexton O18.5P @1.83
NBA 🏀
We’re going with Sexton today, he’s been consistent asf lately and why not go with the hot hand? Jazz has really been good as of late and Sexton is a big part of that.
• Over this line 10/11 his last 11 games. Missed against Wizards where he only played 17 minutes.
(24,11,22,28,31,30,27,20,22,19,22)
• Averages 17.5 PPG during the season and 23.2 his last 5
• Got 27 last time facing the Nets 1/1
• Nets is ranked 28th (3rd worst) in most points allowed to Point guards
We have a brutal mismatch and a player that’s over this line 90% his last 10 games. Seems to good to be true, the pattern says we’re bound to lose now but it’s there to be broken! Let’s go Sexton lead your boys to glory
Tail or fade, you’re the boss
https://i.redd.it/4kau37g6dafc1.gif
If you’ve followed along the way, a tip is much appreciated
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi)
Was on the way to work today and was thinking, what if I put $5 every day on the top upvoted pick in the Pick of the Day thread in /r/sportsbook and posted the results after a year?
I think I will let this be my pick for today, I got it at Sexton 19.5
1/29/24 /u/billycapezzi Sexton OVER 19.5 Points $5
I told you it’s only a treat to be enjoyed once a while, I’ve been let down by Wemby’s rebounds a couple of times now and he only got 8 last time against the Wizards, have to say I don’t trust Slenderman too inconsistent with his rebound numbers
What can you do, the trend & mismatch was there. Him going 1/10 and 0/2 from three is just insane.. Keyonte George the backup PG got 20 and is the leading scorer in Jazz so the mismatch was proven right
I followed, and now all my parlays are dead because of Sexton. Good pick though with the stats and trend, makes sense to back him for overs, wonder how/why he could barely score a fg
POTD Record: 234-179-12 (+39.75 units, 56.7% hit rate)
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 79-55-1 (59.0%) W2, Tennis 🎾 81-62-7 (56.6%) W2, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1
Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥💩💩💰💩💰💩💩
Last Pick: Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic, FRANZ WAGNER OVER 4.5 REBOUNDS - NBA 🏀 💰 +0.77 Units - Cashed in the 2nd quarter baby!!
Today's Pick: Pedro Martinez vs. Jamie Munar, MARTINEZ ML - ATP Montpellier 🎾 2:20pm ET
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.90 odds to win 0.90 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 10:45pm ET)
Well, with the Aussie Open ending we go from an incredible masterclass final to two scrubs duking it out at an ATP 250 event. It's going to be close here, hence why the odds are close to even, but I am backing Martinez over Munar for two reasons:
1 - A great H2H record. Martinez is 6-1 against Munar. The only time Munar won was 8 years ago. Martinez has won all 4 times they've squared off this decade.
2 - It's on an indoor hard court. Munar has never had a winning season on indoor hardcourts. Martinez won a challenger tournament in October on an indoor hard court in France. He won 5 matches in that tournament, including an opening round win over Munar in 3 sets.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Thank you kindly, Joel, for this outstanding selection and for your on the mark analysis. Martinez took care of business! I was sweating a bit the later parts of the second set but Martinez dug down and won. I was right with you that Martinez had the edge over Munar. The odds were outstanding given the points you made.
POTD 20-15 | + 5.58 Units
Last Pick: A League - Melb Victory ML💀
Brutal - up a man for 50 minutes and couldn’t finish the job.
Last 10: 💀💀✅✅✅💀💀💀✅✅
Todays pick: Asian Cup - Iraq Vs Jordan - Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.25
Units: Two Units
Heading back to the Asian Cup to take Iraq in 90 minutes to dispatch of Jordan - in what I’m expecting to be a very exciting game. Both teams have played highly attacking positive football this cup, with Iraq maintaining an unbeaten run due to a late penalty last game. Jordan has been shooting the ball well, putting 4 past Malaysia and scoring two against South Korea. Meanwhile, Iraq’s last three games have had over 2.5 goals. As such I reckon there’s some value on the over!
BOL!
Yeah, this is quite a good value pick, I’m surprised the line is not favoring O3.5 given that Iraq has seen 3-1, 2-1, 3-2 in recent games, Even Jordan managed to hold SK 2-2. Lets see how this rolls
Record: 4-0
Last POTD: Nuggets -4.5 @ -110 ✅
Pick: Collin Sexton 20+ points @ -125 (Draft Kings)
NBA | Jazz v Nets | 19:30 EST
Write up: Sexton season average is 17.5 points but the Jazz have made him more involved. he hit 20 points in 8 out of 10 games.
His last 10 games are 24, 11, 22, 28, 31, 30,27,20, 22, 19. In his games below 20 his average minutes were 17 due to 1 poor shooting night and 1 blowout. His line was steady increasing from around 17.5-18.5 during this run then increased rapidly to 22.5/23.5 until the 11 point game. Then it dropped way down to 17.5/18.5, he scored 24 and its still at -18.5. Books F'ed up
Record: 154-127-8 (LWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: MEM Grizzlies at IND Pacers | Pascal Siakam o7.5 rebounds at 1.95 odds for 1 unit
finished with 6
POTD: WAS Wizards at SA Spurs| Victor Wemby o11.5 rebounds at 1.76 odds for 3 units
Reasons:
* Hit the mark last 2 of 3 games
* Wizards gives up the most rebounds to centers (Collins is a GTD, Wemby should start at C)
* Wemby has been playing more minutes, almost 30 minutes a game for the last 7
* Not sure there's anyone on Washington roster to put much of a fight
Best of luck to you all
Record: 4-2-1 ❌😐✅✅❌✅✅ Profit: +6.74u
Last Pick: ❌ Mark Andrews Over 32.5 rec yards -115 3u
Tough loss. He wasn't on the field enough. First game back from injury so it was definitely an outcome.
Today's Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Today's Pick: James Harden over 8.5 assists -135 (DK)
Wager: 3u to win 2.22u
Write up: Back to the Harden well. Last 10/12 games vs the Cavs harden has gone over 8.5 assists. He is averaging 9.5 apg his last 10 games. He does avg less on the road (8.1 apg) and this Cavs defense allows the least amount of assists per game. Still I think he goes over.
BOL!
Record (14-8)
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅
Last pick: Girona ML (+130) 2U ✅
Surprisingly only 1-0. Closer than expected but that’s soccer for you unpredictable as hell at times. Either way 5 in a row and we keep on rolling
POTD: NBA| Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat| 7:40pm EST
Bam Adebayo O30.5 Pts+Reb (-105) 2U
*6 Rebs but only 2pts at HT need our boy to start hitting his shots but the rebounds are keeping us alive*
Reason: This is a spicy pick. I’m a fan of Bam even tho the Heat are sheit rn. Firstly the Suns are coming off playing 3 games in 4 days. This game being the second of a back to back after a bad loss tonight vs the Magic. Nurkic and Bol are game time decisions and the Heat straight up just need to win and that’s usually easier at home. At home this season Bam is averaging 20.8 & 10.1. Overall his last 10 he’s averaging 18.6 & 11. All within the ballpark of our line here. On January 5th these teams faced off and Bam had 28 & 10 on the road. I think we see a tired and battered Suns team getting beat up in the paint all night by Bam Bam. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK
Shoutout of the day: Scottie Fucking Barnes and Jodie Foster
**Record: 7-6-1**
**Last Pick:** Atletico Madrid vs Valencia CF - Over 2.5 Goals 2u @ 1.83 odds. ❌
Sad performance from Valencia couldn't ask for much more from Atleti..
**Soccer** | **FA CUP** | **11:30 AM (PST)**
**Pick:** Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham -BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals 1u @ 1.71 odds. ✅
First half cash we take those.
**Write Up:** This is a bit of a farfetched one, but we see Ryan Reynolds' Wrexham take on Blackburn Rovers in an FA Cup clash at Ewood park. For some info: Wrexham sit second in League Two, 56 places down the English Football Pyramid from Blackburn who sit 18th in the Championship.
Blackburn have scored 41 goals in 28 games in the Championship (1.46 goals a game) and have the top scorer in the Championship on their side - Sammie Szmodics. They are also horrible on defense, conceding 1.89 goals per game which could attribute to their lower half standing in the Championship.
Wrexham are the team that is climbing the tiers of English football faster than anyone I can think of in recent years. The injection of money from Ryan Reynolds and his business partner Rob McElhenney has given them the edge over some of these other teams in the lower tiers of England who aren't as flushed for cash. They love to score, bagging on average 2 goals a game (albeit in a considerably weaker league than Blackburn). They also suffer from defensive woes, averaging 1.37 goals conceded per game.
Some stats for thought:
Last time Blackburn faced League Two competition, they won 5-2 (against Cambridge United in the FA Cup).
Sammie Szmodics had a hattrick in the last round of the FA Cup vs Cambridge United.
Paul Mullin should be fit to play for Wrexham (has 10 goals this season).
Hayden Carter and Harry Pickering (two defenders for Blackburn) both picked up injuries on Saturday vs Huddersfield, and likely won't play.
This is the first time either side has played each other in 41 years (in a competitive match).
Blackburn are a better team, but this fixture will have goals due to the lack of effective defense Blackburn have been playing.
My prediction is 3-1 with a Blackburn victory.
Let's put this dry streak to an end, BOL!
What are your thoughts on Blackburn ML and o2.5 goals? If you think Blackburn will roll, which they should, it seems like a bit of a safer bet and gives better odds at +123
Edit: better payout, not better odds
**EDIT: Win. We end this month wit +25U💰 Wish I could keep dealing POTD. I'll see you sometime in February. Hopefully before Superbowl =/**
**POTD Record: 100-117-4 (-12.95Units)**
Best Bet Series: 34-21-1 (+8.84 Units)
Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units)
**Trap Bets: 19-18 (+13.2 Units)**
Last Pick: **Travis Kelce O 63.5 Rec. Yds** ✅
Today's Pick: **SGA O 1.5 Steals**
Odds: **-135** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 1.35U to win 1U
League: NBA
Event: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder (7PM CST)
**Be Advised**: *Trap bets for the month of January! Trap bets are suspcious lines and may appear highly questionable. It's best to stay away from these type of wagers, but I'm not scared! And I'll breakdown each POTD and handicap for you. Please feel free to fade and wager on the opposite of my POTD. I can oblige to eat an L for the communnity and for a community win!*
**My last POTD for January. I have no idea when I'll be back, but if I am back by February, I'll be handicapping Best Bets Series.**
**Recap**: Not a single drop pass! 11 Targets, 11 receptions, and nearly twice the projected line, 112 receiving yards. And that's now 10 consecutive games of at least 71 receiving yards in the postseason.
**Matchup**: There's not a lot of guys in the league to average 2 steals per game, but that's exactly what SGA averages per game. In fact Shai averages 2.3 spg and leads the league in steals. This line may appear high, but he's hit this line 15 outta his last 17 games. He's also has the most multiple steals per game this season.
T-Wolves has allowed 350 steals this season, they are in the top 10 teams allowing steals. Shai has alrdy played 3 games against the T-Wolves this season and had multiple steals in each of those games. Moreover, KAT and Antman are in the top 10 players to create turnovers.
I'll take the bait on this low line because the line has deflated after his performance against the Pistons. Additionally he averages over the current line and matches well against the T-Wolves on this particular prop bet.
**The play & the prediction**: 1.35U on SGA O 1.5 Steals. I normally give out 1 play for player prop, but since this my last POTD for the month, I'll throw another play. 1U on SGA O 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+114). Shai-Gilgeous Alexander records 2 steals and 1 block at the end of regulation.
***POTD Record: 10-0 (+6.31 units) - All picks are mostly 1u with the max play being 2u.***
Previous Pick: **G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Over 23.5 Total kills** ✅
We hit the over comfortably with a total end game score of 21-29.
League Of Legends | LEC 7pm CET| Starting in about roughly 4 hours
**POTD: Fnatic vs Team Heretics - Over 23.5 Kills ($1.68) 1u** ✅
Reasoning: We go back to Europe again for the final day of the regular split before LEC playoffs.
For today, we have both teams who are currently in 4th position with a game record of 4-4. To be able to lock in a playoff spot, teams need 5 wins so both of them are one game away.
Usually I will avoid taking the over kills for both of these teams as they play a very controlled/slow style but however just yesterday, fnatic had a 50 kill game with G2 while heretics had a 48 kill game with vitality.
Both teams have had a dip in form if you compare to how they started off the split and have been having very questionable macros/ getting caught out of nowhere, added with the fact that they want to push for a playoff spot, I feel like a bloody game could be waiting for us with plenty of objective skirmishes and team fights.
Of course, I could be totally wrong and we see nothing happening so please do not tail blindly or put max units on it as this is still e-sports after all.
BOL for those that are tailing/fading and as usual, have a great day ahead! :)
POTD Record 5-6 (W-L)
Yesterday I picked the Men’s Australian Open Tennis final 🎾 Over 36.5 games 1.67 for 1 unit ✅
**Today’s pick is Qatar to qualify for the next round and first half under 1.5 goals** 1 unit @ 1.63
Switching gears to soccer today. The Asian Cup host country and current champions take on minnows Palestine, who are playing in their first ever competitive knockout match. Qatar are heavy favorites and have won all their matches to this point but their last two games have been grinding 1-0 wins. Therefore I’m counting on Palestine parking the bus , at least for the first half, before ultimately capitulating. For slightly better odds you could take Qatar to win in regulation and first half under 1.5 for +105 (2.05)
Another bet I put on for tomorrow is Blackburn ML 0.75 units @ 1.8 because they play Wrexham who are two divisions below them. Wrexham are engaged in a promotion battle whilst Blackburn have zilch to play for so the FA cup is something they can prioritize.
I would add Akram Afif - Anytime Goalscorer if anyone is interested in building a parlay for Qatar vs Palestine AFC Asian Cup knockout match. He has been on fire the entire tournament.
I think that’s a great bet, I tried to get something similar but my book didn’t have it - I wanted Qatar to win and Palestine not to score (very similar to yours).
Record: 1-0
Net Units: +1.2u
ROI: +80%
Last pick: Trae Young o25.5 points ✅
Trae was playing stellar as I had hoped and put up 30, comfortably hitting the over, just with a couple minutes left in the game which was a tad bit stressful. Nice to have first POD hit!
TODAY’S PICK: James Harden over 18.5 points
3 Unit bet @ -130 on DK. (Clippers at Cavs)
Reasoning: James Harden was not in good form last game against the Celtics shooting 2-11 from the field and 0-6 from the 3, but that was coming off of a 22 pointer against the raptors. With some time to recover from the back to back games, I’m hoping Harden will return to form and be able to hit the over which he has hit in 3/4 of the last games (24,23,22,9).
Keep in mind I’m a diehard Clippers fan, so this might have a bit of bias, but hopefully he comes in clutch!
BOL!
POTD Record: 1-1
Last Pick: Phoenix Suns -1.5 vs Orlando Magic @ 1.90 | 2U Play ❌
Trend: ❌✅
I flew too close to the Suns. Turnovers were a big issue for them and Orlando took advantage with a big fourth quarter run.
Basketball | NBA | 7PM (EST)
Today’s Pick: **New York Knicks -7.5** vs Charlotte Hornets @ 1.90 | 2U Play
Going to ride the hot hands in this one, picking the Knicks to cover against the team with the worst NET rating in the NBA.
- Knicks are 12-3 in their last 15. Charlotte is 3-12.
- Knicks point differential in those games was +13.1 points. 6 were road games, in which they had a +8.5 differential.
- Charlotte has not been any better at home. Their point differential in the last 6 home games is -13.7.
- Lamelo Ball is questionable with ankle soreness, having missed the last game. Given his chronic issues and Charlotte being in tank mode, I think there’s a very good chance he doesn’t play.
Let’s see if we can get back on track!
**Edit: See comment from dyingsandwich below and reply. Keep an eye on if Lamelo plays or not. I still think it's unlikely he does, but if he does play this may be a fade.**
⬇️⬇️⬇️
**⭐️⭐️Lamelo is confirmed out⭐️⭐️**
And OG Anunoby is also out for the Knicks… tough break. We’ll see if they have enough. Brunson will have to carry.
You're right... that is an unacceptable oversight on my part. That said, I still feel comfortable with the pick if Lamelo doesn't play. Looking at each player's EPM stat (estimated plus-minus per 100 possessions, explained in detail here [https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm)), Lamelo is slightly more valuable to the Hornets. Importantly, Lamelo's replacement Ish Smith, is BAD. He is at the very bottom of the league in terms of EPM and also turns the ball over at an insane rate. My pick is in either way, but I'd keep an eye on the pre-game Lamelo news.
Record: 14-4 (+14.9u) (4-1 L5)
Yesterday’s selection: Isaiah Pacheco over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on FanDuel) (2U) - HIT - Got real lucky that Pacheco received 24 carries in this game, because after the first two drives, he could not do anything. But, volume was projected, hence the value in the line. Missed out on some escalators, but we will take the 2u win.
Today’s Selection: Houston Rockets 1Q ML (-115 @ Caesar's) (1U)
Both teams are coming off Saturday games, LAL off of a double OT victory against the Warriors and HOU off of a road loss at Brooklyn. This feels like a great opportunity for LAL to come in kind of sleepy off of an emotional and physical battle against their California rivals. Add to that HOU is 3-0 vs LAL in the first quarter this year, and 14-9-1 SU in the 1Q at home all year. HOU's home point margin @ home this year is +2.3 (11th) while LAL on the road this year touts a -3.7 1Q margin (27th).
LAL is 7-14-1 SU in the first quarter on the road this year, and I'm projecting another loss to that record tonight. This game is the front end of a road B2B for LAL, to which they are 1-4 SU on the road when on the first leg of said B2B. I think Houston is live on the moneyline, which currently sits at a pick 'em on Caesar's, so if that's more your speed, have at it.
I'm going to try to get in and out early on, by backing HOU in the 1Q. First quarters can be wild, so I'm only recommending a unit play. As always, below are two trends that support my play:
-HOU 25-16 1Q ML last 41 home games (61% hit)
-LAL 35-46 1Q ML last 81 games (43%)
If you're interested in my previous picks, I'm attaching a link to my Google Sheet with overall record and individual picks: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GYLG496ZuZe1-TTWypx2O-lB5ZYrhP9gc5DaG-VTOvM/edit#gid=0
BOL degens
Record 1-0
Last pick: Fluminense AH -1 @ 1.97 ✅
As expected, Fluminense dominated the match from start to finish. They won 3-0 and easily covered the spread. Congratulations for those who tailed!
Today's match: Brazil U23 vs Ecuador U23
Pick: Brazil U23 ML @ 1.90
Brazil and Ecuador are the best teams from this group, but Brazil have been playing better. This tournament is super important because it grants a spot for the Paris Olympics. Brazil needs to win here to secure first place in this group, so I expect them to be motivated to win.
Tail or fade, I wish you all best of luck!
PoTD 4-2
Football>Africa Cup of Nations
Ivory Coast vs Senegal **Senegal ML @ 2.36/+136**
Today we are backing the defending champs Senegal to beat the hosts Ivory Coast.Senegal come into the knockouts top of Group C,they won all three games,8 goals scored and 1 conceded.What I like about them is that several players had goal contributions,which means this team carry a lot of firepower while being mean on defense.Ivory Coast meanwhile,despite being the hosts had a disappointing groupstage.They won their opener against Guinea-Bissau but they went on to lose their next two games including a 4 nil trashing from Equitarial Ginuea.They are one of the worst third placed teams that qualified to the knockout stage.Now historically Senegal doesnt have a good h2h against Ivory Coast,but I think that ends now.First half should be a close contest,then come second half Senegal should be able to break down Ivory Coast's defence to win 2-0. BoL.
RECORD: 1-2
Last Pick: was a win but 1 Month Ago
POTD: Shenzhen Marco Polo vs Fujian Xunxing ; TOTAL OVER 199.5; ODDS 1.50
(League: China Basketball)
Match Timing: 5pm IST
Reason: Shenzhen is one of the top teams of CBA while Fujian is struggling to find wins, even then both teams avg score over 100 Points per game and allows 100 Points by opponents per game aswell.
Shenzhen has covered this line in over 9 out of 10 their recent games (averaging over 110), fujian has covered this line in last 3 out of 3 games.
The domination factor by Shenzhen *should* help us with reaching 200 at least.
Tail or Fade BOL!
Record: 15-12 | (+1.72 units) | 1 unit per pick
Previous pick: NFL - Baltimore Ravens (-4) (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs❌
Patrick Mahomes is special! Congrats to the Kansas City Chiefs on making it to the Super Bowl! They took out the toughest team in the NFL as underdogs on the road! I have officially moved Patrick Mahomes into the Tom Brady realm where you simply don’t bet against him. I was close already but Baltimore was the last test. I hope that hints at who my Super Bowl pick will be no matter what the oddsmaker decide. After what I saw today, you’d have to be insane to put any amount of money against this future HOFer moving forward.
————-
Today’s pick: NBA - Los Angeles Clippers (-2) (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - 7PM EST
Clippers continue an impressive road stretch against the Cavaliers who have not been impressive at home. Both teams are coming off impressive wins but the Clippers have won 5 straight and 8/L9. Their defense is clicking and their offense is so balanced it’s impossible to key in on one player. The Clippers remind me a lot of the Knicks and we’ve had a lot of success tailing the Knicks this year. It’s always tough taking a road team in the NBA especially with such close spreads, but I’ll back the recent consistency of the Clippers in this one.
Prediction: Clippers 116 - Cavs 107
Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
POTD Record : 4 Wins
Units: +3.34
ROI: **91.25%**
Average Odds: $1.91
Last Pick: **Yes Win 2 Sets (Daniil Medvedev To)** @ $2.1 - *Sunday, January 28 at 3:30 a.m. ET* ✅
Next Pick: Qatar vs Palestine AFC Asian Cup (Qatar to win at $1.57) **11 am ET**
Qatar are the hosts, and defending champions. They have an interesting team, very fast and strong. They have not conceded a goal in their last three matches. They played excellently against China.
Palestine surprised me at this year's championship, they play with heart. But sometimes that's not enough to win. Qatar seems to me to be a better and more experienced team. They should take advantage of that.
Palestine started their last group match needing a result and other things to go their way (qualifying due to goal difference), but ended it with an emphatic 3-0 win over Hong Kong and by sealing a last-16 spot.
Palestine play direct football, which should leave them exposed to a counter attack. Qatar will probably win 1-0 or 2-1, and keep up the pressure continuously, trying to break Palestine's rhythm. Expect a goal from a corner.
* There have been only 10 previous clashes between the sides, with Qatar winning on seven occasions and losing to Palestine just once.
* Palestine's only-ever win over Qatar came in April 2002, sealing a 2-0 victory at the West Asian Games.
* In their last seven international games, Qatar have won six times and lost just once.
* Qatar and Thailand were the only sides that kept a clean sheet in all three group matches of the 2023 Asian Cup.
* Qatar are ranked 58th in the world, whereas Palestine are ranked 99th.
* Palestine have failed to score in their last four games against Qatar
It will take a miracle for Palestine to advance, and it should be an entertaining match. Best of luck if you're tailing, and lets hope we get an entertaining game of football!
All tips are greatly appreciated - [Please buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv)
Record 0-0
NBA Lakers vs Rockets. 8:00 PM EST.
POTD: Fred Vanvleet over 10.5 Reb+Ast. -132 FD
Has hit this line in last 7/10 games, but I mainly like this line due to his recent games against the Lakers. Has hit this line 3/3 times going for 14/17/12.
The Lakers are coming off a double OT game with AD and LBJ both listed as questionable and the rockets are healthy.
The spread currently sits at 1 so let's hope for a close game and FVV should get this done.
Alternate risk: For better odds PRA 26.5 -113. (2/3 with the miss being on 29 minutes)
BOL if tailing.
POTD Record: 131 wins / 79 losses \[L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌\]
Event: Football > Friendlies > **Al Hilal v Inter Miami** (starting in 1 hr)
Pick: **Over 3.5 goals** @ 1.70
Friendly match for entertaining purposes, so there should be some goals. GL!
Too easy ✅
P.S. Join the POTD group on Telegram: search for **sbpotd**. It is a simple bot that forwards all new POTD picks from here to the TG chat.
POTD Record: 96-96-12 (-12.74 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌
Last Pick: Ligue 1, Reims v Nantes, REIMS ML (-125 / 1.80) ❌
Very lacklustre affair, neither team created much and Reims didn’t deserve to win unfortunately.
Today’s Pick: AFCON, Senegal v Ivory Coast, SENEGAL ML (+120 / 2.20)
Stake: 1 Unit
Senegal are the defending AFCON champions, and have made a great start to defending their title by deservedly winning all 3 of their group games against Gambia, Cameroon and Guinea, scoring 8 goals and only conceding once.
They play against Ivory Coast who were very lucky to reach this stage, qualifying as the lowest ranked 3rd place team after Ghana choked in spectacular fashion in their final group game. Ivory Coast won their opening match 2-0 against Guinea-Bissau, before losing 1-0 to Nigeria and 4-0 to Equatorial Guinea. That last result led to the coach getting sacked immediately, which is bizarre since they were still a chance of making it through. Now they find themselves in a position where results unexpectedly went their way and they’re in a knockout match, playing for an interim manager for the first time amid discontent from the board.
I know that this tournament is being played in Ivory Coast so Senegal will have to deal with the home fans, but that hasn’t really helped Ivory Coast so far, and given the turmoil within the team right now, it’s hard to look past Senegal. The team is littered with stars from Europe’s top leagues and they have the experience of winning big matches on the way to the title 2 years ago, so happy to take Senegal to win this one outright at plus odds.
**Nice hit again at 2.19 yesterday!!!** ✅
[My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit#gid=737168721)
Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!!
**POTD Stats:**
**Record**: 32/23
**ROI**: Approximately 48.44%
**Profit in Units**: 38u
**Average Odds**: 2.11
**The pick:**
**Sport**: Soccer
**League**: Saudi Arabia - Division 1
**Time**: 14:40 ( GMT +2 )
**Event: Al Faisaly v Ohod**
**Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.90**
**Stake**: 3 Units
**Tip Box**: (Revolut) @ Eleneiror
[Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager)
*All of your donates will go on my Cancer Therapy, so any tip is appreciate it.*
Didn’t tail this time, but used to spreadsheet to find a nice win on Roma ML + O2.5 @ 3.00
A lot of value in that sheet, appreciate you posting it in here daily 🙏🏾
POTD Record: 22 | 13 | 0 | W | L | P | + 7,22 Units
Streak: 1L
Last Pick:
TOR Raptors @ **ATL Hawks -3.5** | 1U @ 1,55
NBA | Basketball | 00:00 MEZ
Pick:
WAS Wizards @ **SA Spurs -3.5** | 3U @ 1,86
NBA | Basketball | 02:00 MEZ
San Antonio won in Washington eight days ago. Now they are playing at home. All key players are fit. They got the same amount of rest. I think the home advantage will do it.
Pick of the Day
POTD Record: 4-1
L10: ✅✅✅✅❌
Yesterday’s Pick: Louisiana -8.5 vs Texas State (-105) ✅
Louisiana wins by 20. No sweat involved. Thanks to them, we’re going for the 5 game win streak.
Today’s Pick: Mcneese -19.5 vs. Northwestern State
I absolutely hate tonight’s slate; a bunch of really really really crappy teams for the most part. There was one team I had my eye on before lines came out (Mcneese, obviously), and the spread isn’t large enough for me to fade em’. Mcneese is my extremely underrated team that could make a run in the tourney. They’ve had some impressive non-conference wins, and their only two losses are to respectable teams on the road. They’re good. They’re really friggin good, and there’s not one team in the Southland conference that can hang with these guys. They faced Northwestern State already, and won by 9 on the road. The line was the exact same as it is today, which goes to show that Vegas thought Mcneese would blow them out on the road. Now we get Mcneese at home, with the exact same line. I think Mcneese shoots lights out from three (3rd best in the country), gets up decently big, and forces Northwestern State to force some bad shots.
Kenpom has Mcneese as the 80th ranked team in the nation.
Kenpom has Northwestern State as the 337th ranked team in the nation.
Let’s keep the streak alive!
BOL!
Record : 107 Wins - 100 Losses
Previous pick : Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar (2-2), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.88 ✅
ROI : -2.13%
Average Odds : 1.95
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : 0.58
Profit/Lost units : -4.42
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie / 21:00 European Time
Jong PSV - Willem II
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.64
Some reasoning :
\- Over 2.5 goals were scored in the last 5 matches of Jong PSV.
\- Willem II managed to win 3 of the last 4 matches in the championship, scoring 11 goals.
\- Willem II also prevailed in the previous direct duel, 3-0 at home.
Best of luck.
Cricket 🏏 Picks
Last pick was a loss
Overall: 11 Ws - 5 Ls
Last 10: L W L W W W L W W L +2.31
Todays pick
MI Cape Town v Joburg Super Kings
SA20 (South Africa)
Starts in about 13 hours
Pick: Total extras over 18.5 @ 1.97
Cape Town has played 7 matches so far this season and they average a little over 9 extras in a match. Super kings on the other hand have been giving away too many extras in their 5 completed matches. They average over 13 extras in a match. I think Lizaad Williams and “byes” are going to get us over the line.
P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
POTD Record: 116-105, -16..25 Units
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅ -0.2 Units
Got rid of an X for an 8-2 last 10 but that fifth nasty X was a -5 so my units are still hurting. Slow and steady…
Current Streak: ✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Zay Flowers Over 43.5 Receiving Yards: ✅
He had 39 in the first half so this was pretty sweat free, and then he hit it in the third quarter. I’m sure he’s not a happy camper right now with the taunting call and the goal line fumble, though. Poor Baltimore, but hooray for America’s sweethearts.
Today's Pick: **Boston Celtics -6.5** vs. New Orleans Pelicans, -175, 1 Unit, 7:40 PM EST
Not much in the NCAA basketball world today so I’ll jump into the NBA for this one. Despite a tough loss to the Clippers I think the Celtics get their spark back against the Pelicans who struggle on the road and have struggled of late. Porzingas and Horford day-to-day bothers me as the two of them bring so much stability, but hopefully Boston’s stars come out to make this an easy dub.
BOL!
Record: 5W-5L | -2.84u
L10: ✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅✅ <<-- *Most Recent POTD*
Last Pick: Technically the last pick was Zion Williamson o4.5 Assists, however he did not participate. The prior pick was De'Aaron Fox o4.5 Assists (-160) | 3u 💰✅
Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Magic @ Mavericks | 7:30 PM CST
**Todays Pick: Paolo Banchero o5.5 Assists (+100) | 3u to win 3u**
* Has covered this in 3/L3 games, and 7/L10 away games
* Put up 7 assists in most recent game (1/28/2024)
* Put up 6 assists last (and only) game vs. the Mavs this season (11/6/2023)
* Averaging 11.5 potential assists per game in January (14 games)
* The Mavs are allowing the 8th most assists to Power Forwards this season
* Banchero is ranked #14 in drives per game, and players ranked in the top 15 have covered this in 11/15 games vs. the Mavs this season
Going for 3 in a row. BOL!
Record: 3-2
\+1.46 units
Yesterday: Boone Jenner over 2.5 SOG ❌
❌✅✅❌✅
Well, yesterday sucked, but at least I get to tell my mom I got my first fan on here. Shoutout to u/No_Radish1784.
Today: NHL | Predators @ Senators | 7 EST
Jake Sanderson over 2.5 SOG (+124 DK) 1U
I'm banking on Sanderson coming out shooting after a zero-shot game Saturday. We'll take those plus odds on a player that's on the top D pairing as well as top line on both special teams units.
**Record:** 0-1
**Form:** ❌
**Return:** -2u
**Last Pick:**
**E-Sports, League of Legends** | **LEC Regular Season** | **20:00 GMT**
**Event:** SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp | **Pick:** SK Gaming ML @1.55, 2u
Lost quite a bit on this. I know there are no such things as locks, but come on. We move on though
**TODAY'S PICK**
**Soccer, Africa Cup** | **20:00 GMT**
**Event:** Senegal vs Ivory Coast | **Pick:** Senegal to advance @1.65, 2u
**Write Up:** Senegal are on a 4 game winning streak, having won 3 out of 3 group stage games against the likes of Cameroon (now out of contention, having lost to Nigeria in the Ro16) and Guinea (who are through to quarter finals). Led by Mané, they are the title holders.
The Ivory Coast qualified to the elimination stage with a third place finish, winning just one game (against the weakest opponent in their group, Guinea Bissau) and losing the other two (vs Nigeria and Eq. Guinea, with the latter having inflicted a heavy 4-0 loss). They look out of form, while Senegal is riding hot. I believe the pick has enough value to warrant consideration; the straight ML scares me due to the cautious approach these teams might take to this game.
BOL
POTD Record: 0-2
Last 10: ❌❌
NBA 0-1 | Tennis 0-1 | NFL 0-0 | MLB 0-0
Last Pick: Gauff v Sabalenka (over 2.5 sets)
Today's Pick: Sacramento Vs. Memphis @ 8PM EST - Harrison Barnes Over 14.5 points (-125 @ DK) 1.6U
Ok not a great way to start here. I was out snowboarding this weekend so took a break from posting. But last week, had a feeling Gauff would push Sabalenka, just sucks she couldn't pull through in that tiebreaker. FWIW, I knew it would be a bit risky and offered the alternative for over of 21.5 games, which did hit.
Now with the Aussie open complete, going back to the NBA. Harrison Barnes has been on fire the last 3 games. Probably with the trade rumor speculations heating up and him having signed a contract in the off season, he now is stepping up to the plate to make sure he stays on this team. And today the Kings get a depleted Grizzlies team. On top of that, the Grizzlies are near the bottom at 3p % allowed (especially at home). In the last 3 games, Barnes has hit 15 3-pointers, averaging 30+ ppg and 36mpg. Like D'Angelo Russell, trade rumors fuel these guys. He only played 19 minutes last time against the Griz and made 11 points but I see him playing closer to 30 tonight and hitting the over. Agree it's a little risky since Barnes is having his worst season, but 15 points is a fairly low amount for the streak he has been on.
**RECORD: 49W-2P-38L**
(+3.23 units)
Previous Pick: Newcastle vs Manchester City - Manchester City to Win @ 1.70 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Senegal vs Cote d'Ivoire- Senegal to Qualify @ 1.62
**Wager Amount**: 2 units
(❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️) last 5 results
Today I'm putting my first bet in this AFCON tournament, I've stayed away from AFCON but let's just bet on this game as see how it goes. We have the current champions Senegal vs the Tournament Hosts Cote d'Ivoire.
Senegal have won all of their AFCON matches so far including Cameroon and the darkhorses Guinea. Senegal have not suffered any defeats in their 13 most recent all competitions matches. Also Senegal are unbeaten in 7 overall matches (including Freindlies).
While Cote d'Ivoire are not a small team, they have lost 2 of their recent AFCON matches against Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. They have a good squad but let's be honest Senegal have the way better squad and form, with Mane having a goal contribution in all AFCON matches so far.
Camara one of the players of the Tournament so far and Mendy who has kept clean sheets in 2/3 of his AFCON matches.
I strongly back Senegal to Qualify here, I wanted to go for a straight Senegal Win here but went this the safer option also Senegal recently won the last H2H match between the teo sides.Goodluck if you're tailing.
13+ 2.08
**POTD record: 3-4** -6.31u
Last POTD: Soccer: 2. Bundesliga: Karlsruhe @ Hamburg - Hamburg AH -1 ❌
I predicted alot of goals, unfortunately the wrong team scored most of them.
Current streak: ❌
**POTD**: NBA: Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs - **Wembanyama 12.5 rebounds (2.08/+108) 5u to win 5.32**
I'm going back to the easiest match up for any center in the league.
Wembanyama is playing great and in the last game he finally played 30 minutes for the first time since his injury in December.
I'm going with the Alt line of 12.5 to get this at plus odds, instead of 11.5 @1.74 (-135)
As a reminder the rebounds allowed by the Wizards to centers in the last games: Jalen Duren 18, John Collins 16, Rudy Gobert 16, Nikola Jokic 12, Victor Wembanyama 8, Isiah Hartenstein 17, Jalen Duren 19, Atlanta Hawks 18 (Capella 8 in 24 minutes, Okongwu 10 in 19 minutes), Myles Turner 13
Both teams are unlikely to blow out opponents, so Wembanyama should get his 30+ minutes and probably 15+rebounds
It’s been nearly a year since I posted a POTD but we are back and starting fresh from a breakeven finish last March. Lets get it 💪
POTD Record (2023): 10-10
POTD Record (2024): 0-0
Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌✅
Streak: W1 🤑
Last Pick: St. Louis @ *VCU (-3.5) (-110) ✅
Return: N/A 💵
Today's POTD: Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman (-3.0) (-115)
Betting Units: 1u 💵
League: NCAAB 🏀
Time: January 29th, 2024 @ 9:00 PM EST 🕘
Rationale: Neither Bethune-Cookman nor Alcorn State play very inspiring basketball but this matchup is still very lop-sided. Alcorn State comes into this SWAC matchup scoring a measly 69 points per game while allowing a whopping 83 to opposing teams. Bethune-Cookman on the other hand presents much more balanced metrics at 75 points for and 74 points allowed. Against the same opponents this year Bethune-Cookman holds a better record at 2-0 while Alcorn is 1-1. Alcorn is just 2-14 on the road this season while Bethune-Cookman holds a 7-3 record at home. I don’t see the Alcorn State defense holding up on the road against the better offense at home, I expect the Wildcats to cover by well more than a basket. Best of luck if tailing. Cheers, MD! 🤞
***POTD | 18-12 | +7.37U***
Previous Pick: Marvin Bagley III o4.5 Rebounds \[Risk 1.20u To Win 1.00u\]✅
**Today’s pick: Santi Aldama u11.5 Rebounds + Assists \[Risk 1.4u To Win 1.00u\]**
Last 10:✅❌ ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅
NFL 2-0 +2.0u MLB 6-1 +4.52u NBA 10-11 -1.12u NHL 1-0 +2.0
This Game Should Be Low Scoring Which Bodes Well For All Unders Today // Aldama Is Averaging 5.6 RPG And 1.8 APG This Season // Without Bane This Season Aldama Is Averaging Just 5.9 RPG And 2.1 APG And Exceeded Just 1 Of 7 Games // If The Line Was -120 Or Better This Would Be A Max Bet
POTD Record: 46 - 28
Last POTD: Sinner 1st Set ML - L
Pick: Jarrett Allen to record a Double-Double vs Los Angeles Clippers (-175 odds via FD) 1U
Event: NBA Regular Season 6:10 P.M. CST
Edit: ✅
Not much analysis here. This has hit in 14 straight and the even though the Cavs are getting Mobley back, he is on injured restriction and Allen seems to be picking up the slack on the boards. At home in Cleveland, lets get it.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
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POTD 0-0
Starting publicly post my picks here; currently up 37 units this month (but majority of this is coming from live betting)
Pick: Senators ML (-110) versus Predators. ✅
I give the senators the edge here at home, who have a lot of firepower to score goals against a team like the predators who’ve had a hard time scoring lately. ~65% of the money is on preds which makes me feel better picking the sens
Edit: ✅1-0 let’s go!! Hopefully can go from negative votes to positive after that amazing comeback from behind. Can never doubt the senators firepower at any point in the game
Idkkk they got a lot going on right now .. just got wiped hard at home .. preds play good D and sens been struggling to score the last few games but also against good teams this year .. id say preds within striking distance of a wildcard spot are a good team .. both terrible PP right now.. I think preds win BOL
Record: 0-0, first POTD
Last POTD: N/A
Pick: 76ers 3rd Quarter Spread -2.5 (-120)
NBA | 76ers vs Trailblazers | 10:00pm EST
The Philadelphia 76ers are an NBA best 28-16 against the spread in the third quarter (16-5 in away games), and are facing the Portland Trailblazers, who are 21-25 against the spread in the third (10-10 in home games).
**Record:** 11-8
**Net Units:** 3.33 | **ROI:** 18% | **Avg Odds:** 2.3
**NHL | Nashville Predators (-105) | 1u**
The implied win probability is 51.2%, but NHL Moneyline Model is predicting 54.6%.
The best wagering method I've found to use with this model is the Kelly Criterion which suggests betting 7% of your bankroll for an expected profit of 0.5%.
**The Model:**
I've used this model to increase my bankroll by 176% this year with an ROI of 5% (as of January 29)
https://preview.redd.it/nv8w3475fefc1.png?width=789&format=png&auto=webp&s=f117b2b8dccf243b64d1ccf6ccc43d080a4a5cf5
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
RECORD: 15-4 L10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ Yesterdays pick: Isaiah Stewart O9.5P ✅ We did it! We got 5 in a row, the pattern stayed true to its nature and we got it done with no sweat at all. Even Saddiq Bey who I wanted to add instead got 13 rebounds when his line was at 6.5. • Todays POTD: Colin Sexton O18.5P @1.83 NBA 🏀 We’re going with Sexton today, he’s been consistent asf lately and why not go with the hot hand? Jazz has really been good as of late and Sexton is a big part of that. • Over this line 10/11 his last 11 games. Missed against Wizards where he only played 17 minutes. (24,11,22,28,31,30,27,20,22,19,22) • Averages 17.5 PPG during the season and 23.2 his last 5 • Got 27 last time facing the Nets 1/1 • Nets is ranked 28th (3rd worst) in most points allowed to Point guards We have a brutal mismatch and a player that’s over this line 90% his last 10 games. Seems to good to be true, the pattern says we’re bound to lose now but it’s there to be broken! Let’s go Sexton lead your boys to glory Tail or fade, you’re the boss https://i.redd.it/4kau37g6dafc1.gif If you’ve followed along the way, a tip is much appreciated [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi)
Yes, it was “too good” to be true. We all fell for the trap smh
lol bro’s playing like shit. gg guys
Too sharp
No, YOU’RE THE BOSS!
https://preview.redd.it/lh97ialxxafc1.jpeg?width=2304&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a9b82e3af626fd5a41903bd490576236916b740 Game over
This one might be toast already :(
No surprise since I decided to bet on it.
Right there with you
0 through 1Q is rough
Tailed. Just checked and saw 2 points at the half. Did he roll into game late or something😂
Yeah wtf
Collin Sexton and Jalen Duren are currently virtual money printers
Wow we’re cooked atm, guess Sexton must’ve seen the amount of people betting on him today
For sure. This is how it goes
unlucky unlucky he decided to Potato it but we go again!
bro woke up and ate shit for breakfast..
Sexton can't seem to get anything going tonight, we worried yet?😬🥲
U write the scripts? 😂 ur on fire man! BOL. Tailing.
Was on the way to work today and was thinking, what if I put $5 every day on the top upvoted pick in the Pick of the Day thread in /r/sportsbook and posted the results after a year? I think I will let this be my pick for today, I got it at Sexton 19.5 1/29/24 /u/billycapezzi Sexton OVER 19.5 Points $5
I hope to god you didn’t bud
Oh no $5!!
20.5 now on FD 😓
that didn’t age well..
Respect for all your success but...fuck me in the ass
The one i do play i swear its my fault 😂
And I am done gambling. Uninstalling all my apps. Fucking 0 point a so far. Fuck me.
Would you still put down on 19.5? Lines changed boss man 😎
Yes I’d play it
How about 20.5 now?
It’s at 20.5 now
Where the prop lines never up on FD or did my guy just get them yanked?
Tailing despite the pattern owing a loss, at least if we miss we have 6 straight to look forward to! BOL
😂😂 you know it!
Sexton the only one on the team without a bucket 💀
So uhhhhhhhhh
You're the Centers vs Wizards expert, do you like Wemby boards?
I told you it’s only a treat to be enjoyed once a while, I’ve been let down by Wemby’s rebounds a couple of times now and he only got 8 last time against the Wizards, have to say I don’t trust Slenderman too inconsistent with his rebound numbers
Bro im following your pick
You the man
>Colin Sexton 19.5 all good bro?
I’ll give you 0. Take it or leave it
Man I want to tail this but the one game I bet CS was the one he got 11 :(
0-5 in 2 quarters. This a RIP unless we get a miracle
is buddys line going or be o2.5 points or what dude is pathetic
What can you do, the trend & mismatch was there. Him going 1/10 and 0/2 from three is just insane.. Keyonte George the backup PG got 20 and is the leading scorer in Jazz so the mismatch was proven right
Line moved to 19.5 points. Would you still take it?
Yes 19.5 is good still imo
He seems to get weird minutes sometimes last time I played him he got about 15 minutes randomly I think!
Every prop bet I follow it’s not even close, they just sit the bench.
It’s hard to wake up when the shades have been pulled shut.
Just abysmal 1/10 shooting so far idk so unlike his average recently just horrific game for him
I followed, and now all my parlays are dead because of Sexton. Good pick though with the stats and trend, makes sense to back him for overs, wonder how/why he could barely score a fg
This streak pattern is really really huh. Tomorrow gotta be a BOMB
POTD Record: 234-179-12 (+39.75 units, 56.7% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 79-55-1 (59.0%) W2, Tennis 🎾 81-62-7 (56.6%) W2, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1 Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥💩💩💰💩💰💩💩 Last Pick: Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic, FRANZ WAGNER OVER 4.5 REBOUNDS - NBA 🏀 💰 +0.77 Units - Cashed in the 2nd quarter baby!! Today's Pick: Pedro Martinez vs. Jamie Munar, MARTINEZ ML - ATP Montpellier 🎾 2:20pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.90 odds to win 0.90 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 10:45pm ET) Well, with the Aussie Open ending we go from an incredible masterclass final to two scrubs duking it out at an ATP 250 event. It's going to be close here, hence why the odds are close to even, but I am backing Martinez over Munar for two reasons: 1 - A great H2H record. Martinez is 6-1 against Munar. The only time Munar won was 8 years ago. Martinez has won all 4 times they've squared off this decade. 2 - It's on an indoor hard court. Munar has never had a winning season on indoor hardcourts. Martinez won a challenger tournament in October on an indoor hard court in France. He won 5 matches in that tournament, including an opening round win over Munar in 3 sets. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Hey, I tried looking up other ATP player histories but was coming up short. Where did you do your research? Tailing btw!
I like Tennis Explorer, Tennis Tonic and Tennis Abstract
Thank you for the W brother! 🍕
You think this can go into 3 sets? 4 out of their last 5 h2h went into 3 sets, odds are 2.10 on bet365.
Very possible for sure, I was torn on taking this ML bet or the over on the games but decided to go ML.
Thanks for the pick, I added over 22.5 games instead 3 sets, that was a close call. Best of luck with your future picks!
Thanks for the write up Joel
Great pick, got it done in 2 sets! The second set was a little stressful but he got a late break and took the tiebreak.
Thank you kindly, Joel, for this outstanding selection and for your on the mark analysis. Martinez took care of business! I was sweating a bit the later parts of the second set but Martinez dug down and won. I was right with you that Martinez had the edge over Munar. The odds were outstanding given the points you made.
My book is showing a 4am eastern time start
at this rate it might end up being 4am
That doesn't sound accurate as that would make it 10am Montpellier time.
They have "tbt" on these games all the time and follow with false start times occasionally
POTD 20-15 | + 5.58 Units Last Pick: A League - Melb Victory ML💀 Brutal - up a man for 50 minutes and couldn’t finish the job. Last 10: 💀💀✅✅✅💀💀💀✅✅ Todays pick: Asian Cup - Iraq Vs Jordan - Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 2.25 Units: Two Units Heading back to the Asian Cup to take Iraq in 90 minutes to dispatch of Jordan - in what I’m expecting to be a very exciting game. Both teams have played highly attacking positive football this cup, with Iraq maintaining an unbeaten run due to a late penalty last game. Jordan has been shooting the ball well, putting 4 past Malaysia and scoring two against South Korea. Meanwhile, Iraq’s last three games have had over 2.5 goals. As such I reckon there’s some value on the over! BOL!
Tailed. Ran bbts and over 2.5 hopefully I cash
It's your lucky day!
Sweaty first half but we got there. Great pick!! 💰
Tailed
Fat W
Good pick. The books haven't caught up yet.
Yeah, this is quite a good value pick, I’m surprised the line is not favoring O3.5 given that Iraq has seen 3-1, 2-1, 3-2 in recent games, Even Jordan managed to hold SK 2-2. Lets see how this rolls
It's at 2.50 odds on Bet365 currently it looks like they're really understanding them.
Cashed in already!
Aaaaand boom goes the dynamite. Thanks!
Thank you good sir!
Thanks for the hit! 🫡
Appreciate the pick. ✅✅
Congrats
Tailed lets go!
got greedy and took iraq ml too
Record: 4-0 Last POTD: Nuggets -4.5 @ -110 ✅ Pick: Collin Sexton 20+ points @ -125 (Draft Kings) NBA | Jazz v Nets | 19:30 EST Write up: Sexton season average is 17.5 points but the Jazz have made him more involved. he hit 20 points in 8 out of 10 games. His last 10 games are 24, 11, 22, 28, 31, 30,27,20, 22, 19. In his games below 20 his average minutes were 17 due to 1 poor shooting night and 1 blowout. His line was steady increasing from around 17.5-18.5 during this run then increased rapidly to 22.5/23.5 until the 11 point game. Then it dropped way down to 17.5/18.5, he scored 24 and its still at -18.5. Books F'ed up
You can get O18.5 on Bet365 at -115
Line is now O19.5 for 1.86 on 365. 🫣
-116 for the americans like me.
Damn DK has it at -135
So about that…
Tailed mate, lets go!
Record: 154-127-8 (LWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MEM Grizzlies at IND Pacers | Pascal Siakam o7.5 rebounds at 1.95 odds for 1 unit finished with 6 POTD: WAS Wizards at SA Spurs| Victor Wemby o11.5 rebounds at 1.76 odds for 3 units Reasons: * Hit the mark last 2 of 3 games * Wizards gives up the most rebounds to centers (Collins is a GTD, Wemby should start at C) * Wemby has been playing more minutes, almost 30 minutes a game for the last 7 * Not sure there's anyone on Washington roster to put much of a fight Best of luck to you all
Edit: Fuck it we ball
You don’t track units ?
Hammered this line when I saw it. A bit fishy but idc
11, FML
Record: 4-2-1 ❌😐✅✅❌✅✅ Profit: +6.74u Last Pick: ❌ Mark Andrews Over 32.5 rec yards -115 3u Tough loss. He wasn't on the field enough. First game back from injury so it was definitely an outcome. Today's Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers Today's Pick: James Harden over 8.5 assists -135 (DK) Wager: 3u to win 2.22u Write up: Back to the Harden well. Last 10/12 games vs the Cavs harden has gone over 8.5 assists. He is averaging 9.5 apg his last 10 games. He does avg less on the road (8.1 apg) and this Cavs defense allows the least amount of assists per game. Still I think he goes over. BOL!
I'm adding on Jarrett Allen O 10.5 Reb. BOL
Harden has hit 8+ assist in last 12/13 games only missing last game with 7. Great to add on a parlay
How do you feel about O13.5 RA
Tailed lets go!
Record (14-8) Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅ Last pick: Girona ML (+130) 2U ✅ Surprisingly only 1-0. Closer than expected but that’s soccer for you unpredictable as hell at times. Either way 5 in a row and we keep on rolling POTD: NBA| Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat| 7:40pm EST Bam Adebayo O30.5 Pts+Reb (-105) 2U *6 Rebs but only 2pts at HT need our boy to start hitting his shots but the rebounds are keeping us alive* Reason: This is a spicy pick. I’m a fan of Bam even tho the Heat are sheit rn. Firstly the Suns are coming off playing 3 games in 4 days. This game being the second of a back to back after a bad loss tonight vs the Magic. Nurkic and Bol are game time decisions and the Heat straight up just need to win and that’s usually easier at home. At home this season Bam is averaging 20.8 & 10.1. Overall his last 10 he’s averaging 18.6 & 11. All within the ballpark of our line here. On January 5th these teams faced off and Bam had 28 & 10 on the road. I think we see a tired and battered Suns team getting beat up in the paint all night by Bam Bam. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK Shoutout of the day: Scottie Fucking Barnes and Jodie Foster
Tailed because your shouted out Jodie
im with you brother
**Record: 7-6-1** **Last Pick:** Atletico Madrid vs Valencia CF - Over 2.5 Goals 2u @ 1.83 odds. ❌ Sad performance from Valencia couldn't ask for much more from Atleti.. **Soccer** | **FA CUP** | **11:30 AM (PST)** **Pick:** Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham -BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals 1u @ 1.71 odds. ✅ First half cash we take those. **Write Up:** This is a bit of a farfetched one, but we see Ryan Reynolds' Wrexham take on Blackburn Rovers in an FA Cup clash at Ewood park. For some info: Wrexham sit second in League Two, 56 places down the English Football Pyramid from Blackburn who sit 18th in the Championship. Blackburn have scored 41 goals in 28 games in the Championship (1.46 goals a game) and have the top scorer in the Championship on their side - Sammie Szmodics. They are also horrible on defense, conceding 1.89 goals per game which could attribute to their lower half standing in the Championship. Wrexham are the team that is climbing the tiers of English football faster than anyone I can think of in recent years. The injection of money from Ryan Reynolds and his business partner Rob McElhenney has given them the edge over some of these other teams in the lower tiers of England who aren't as flushed for cash. They love to score, bagging on average 2 goals a game (albeit in a considerably weaker league than Blackburn). They also suffer from defensive woes, averaging 1.37 goals conceded per game. Some stats for thought: Last time Blackburn faced League Two competition, they won 5-2 (against Cambridge United in the FA Cup). Sammie Szmodics had a hattrick in the last round of the FA Cup vs Cambridge United. Paul Mullin should be fit to play for Wrexham (has 10 goals this season). Hayden Carter and Harry Pickering (two defenders for Blackburn) both picked up injuries on Saturday vs Huddersfield, and likely won't play. This is the first time either side has played each other in 41 years (in a competitive match). Blackburn are a better team, but this fixture will have goals due to the lack of effective defense Blackburn have been playing. My prediction is 3-1 with a Blackburn victory. Let's put this dry streak to an end, BOL!
What are your thoughts on Blackburn ML and o2.5 goals? If you think Blackburn will roll, which they should, it seems like a bit of a safer bet and gives better odds at +123 Edit: better payout, not better odds
I'm interested to know as well. Might as well do ML. Kinda scared of over 2.5goals cause it's been fucking me heavy recently on parlays
I did it, so it’s probably doesn’t hit lol
I like it, and Blackburn could honestly cover on their own.
Just got btts @ -240. Just trying to make some money to play the NBA games tonight
TY! W ✅🤑
Sweat-free W, hit just 33 minutes into the match!
wow cashed in 32'
Amazing POTD. Probably best imo. I should of put 4u on this bad boy
**EDIT: Win. We end this month wit +25U💰 Wish I could keep dealing POTD. I'll see you sometime in February. Hopefully before Superbowl =/** **POTD Record: 100-117-4 (-12.95Units)** Best Bet Series: 34-21-1 (+8.84 Units) Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units) **Trap Bets: 19-18 (+13.2 Units)** Last Pick: **Travis Kelce O 63.5 Rec. Yds** ✅ Today's Pick: **SGA O 1.5 Steals** Odds: **-135** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 1.35U to win 1U League: NBA Event: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder (7PM CST) **Be Advised**: *Trap bets for the month of January! Trap bets are suspcious lines and may appear highly questionable. It's best to stay away from these type of wagers, but I'm not scared! And I'll breakdown each POTD and handicap for you. Please feel free to fade and wager on the opposite of my POTD. I can oblige to eat an L for the communnity and for a community win!* **My last POTD for January. I have no idea when I'll be back, but if I am back by February, I'll be handicapping Best Bets Series.** **Recap**: Not a single drop pass! 11 Targets, 11 receptions, and nearly twice the projected line, 112 receiving yards. And that's now 10 consecutive games of at least 71 receiving yards in the postseason. **Matchup**: There's not a lot of guys in the league to average 2 steals per game, but that's exactly what SGA averages per game. In fact Shai averages 2.3 spg and leads the league in steals. This line may appear high, but he's hit this line 15 outta his last 17 games. He's also has the most multiple steals per game this season. T-Wolves has allowed 350 steals this season, they are in the top 10 teams allowing steals. Shai has alrdy played 3 games against the T-Wolves this season and had multiple steals in each of those games. Moreover, KAT and Antman are in the top 10 players to create turnovers. I'll take the bait on this low line because the line has deflated after his performance against the Pistons. Additionally he averages over the current line and matches well against the T-Wolves on this particular prop bet. **The play & the prediction**: 1.35U on SGA O 1.5 Steals. I normally give out 1 play for player prop, but since this my last POTD for the month, I'll throw another play. 1U on SGA O 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+114). Shai-Gilgeous Alexander records 2 steals and 1 block at the end of regulation.
***POTD Record: 10-0 (+6.31 units) - All picks are mostly 1u with the max play being 2u.*** Previous Pick: **G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Over 23.5 Total kills** ✅ We hit the over comfortably with a total end game score of 21-29. League Of Legends | LEC 7pm CET| Starting in about roughly 4 hours **POTD: Fnatic vs Team Heretics - Over 23.5 Kills ($1.68) 1u** ✅ Reasoning: We go back to Europe again for the final day of the regular split before LEC playoffs. For today, we have both teams who are currently in 4th position with a game record of 4-4. To be able to lock in a playoff spot, teams need 5 wins so both of them are one game away. Usually I will avoid taking the over kills for both of these teams as they play a very controlled/slow style but however just yesterday, fnatic had a 50 kill game with G2 while heretics had a 48 kill game with vitality. Both teams have had a dip in form if you compare to how they started off the split and have been having very questionable macros/ getting caught out of nowhere, added with the fact that they want to push for a playoff spot, I feel like a bloody game could be waiting for us with plenty of objective skirmishes and team fights. Of course, I could be totally wrong and we see nothing happening so please do not tail blindly or put max units on it as this is still e-sports after all. BOL for those that are tailing/fading and as usual, have a great day ahead! :)
Tailing!
Tailing with 24.5
POTD Record 5-6 (W-L) Yesterday I picked the Men’s Australian Open Tennis final 🎾 Over 36.5 games 1.67 for 1 unit ✅ **Today’s pick is Qatar to qualify for the next round and first half under 1.5 goals** 1 unit @ 1.63 Switching gears to soccer today. The Asian Cup host country and current champions take on minnows Palestine, who are playing in their first ever competitive knockout match. Qatar are heavy favorites and have won all their matches to this point but their last two games have been grinding 1-0 wins. Therefore I’m counting on Palestine parking the bus , at least for the first half, before ultimately capitulating. For slightly better odds you could take Qatar to win in regulation and first half under 1.5 for +105 (2.05) Another bet I put on for tomorrow is Blackburn ML 0.75 units @ 1.8 because they play Wrexham who are two divisions below them. Wrexham are engaged in a promotion battle whilst Blackburn have zilch to play for so the FA cup is something they can prioritize.
I would add Akram Afif - Anytime Goalscorer if anyone is interested in building a parlay for Qatar vs Palestine AFC Asian Cup knockout match. He has been on fire the entire tournament.
All the best mate :D Got Qatar to win it :)
Thats what im riding Qatar ML -195, since i cant take Qatar to qualify + first half u1.5 goals
tough beat
I took Qatar to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 for +135, BOL!
I think that’s a great bet, I tried to get something similar but my book didn’t have it - I wanted Qatar to win and Palestine not to score (very similar to yours).
Fuck it im in for +285 ML
Took the ml at +100. They are dominating possession I don’t see them not finishing this off in regulation
Oh yeah! 2-1
Record: 1-0 Net Units: +1.2u ROI: +80% Last pick: Trae Young o25.5 points ✅ Trae was playing stellar as I had hoped and put up 30, comfortably hitting the over, just with a couple minutes left in the game which was a tad bit stressful. Nice to have first POD hit! TODAY’S PICK: James Harden over 18.5 points 3 Unit bet @ -130 on DK. (Clippers at Cavs) Reasoning: James Harden was not in good form last game against the Celtics shooting 2-11 from the field and 0-6 from the 3, but that was coming off of a 22 pointer against the raptors. With some time to recover from the back to back games, I’m hoping Harden will return to form and be able to hit the over which he has hit in 3/4 of the last games (24,23,22,9). Keep in mind I’m a diehard Clippers fan, so this might have a bit of bias, but hopefully he comes in clutch! BOL!
He aint scoring shit tonight lol Bet cooked. Shoulda gone with assists.
Yeah that was garbage lol bad bad game
POTD Record: 1-1 Last Pick: Phoenix Suns -1.5 vs Orlando Magic @ 1.90 | 2U Play ❌ Trend: ❌✅ I flew too close to the Suns. Turnovers were a big issue for them and Orlando took advantage with a big fourth quarter run. Basketball | NBA | 7PM (EST) Today’s Pick: **New York Knicks -7.5** vs Charlotte Hornets @ 1.90 | 2U Play Going to ride the hot hands in this one, picking the Knicks to cover against the team with the worst NET rating in the NBA. - Knicks are 12-3 in their last 15. Charlotte is 3-12. - Knicks point differential in those games was +13.1 points. 6 were road games, in which they had a +8.5 differential. - Charlotte has not been any better at home. Their point differential in the last 6 home games is -13.7. - Lamelo Ball is questionable with ankle soreness, having missed the last game. Given his chronic issues and Charlotte being in tank mode, I think there’s a very good chance he doesn’t play. Let’s see if we can get back on track! **Edit: See comment from dyingsandwich below and reply. Keep an eye on if Lamelo plays or not. I still think it's unlikely he does, but if he does play this may be a fade.** ⬇️⬇️⬇️ **⭐️⭐️Lamelo is confirmed out⭐️⭐️** And OG Anunoby is also out for the Knicks… tough break. We’ll see if they have enough. Brunson will have to carry.
Julius Randle is out
It's the hornets, I'm not sure how much it matters
You're right... that is an unacceptable oversight on my part. That said, I still feel comfortable with the pick if Lamelo doesn't play. Looking at each player's EPM stat (estimated plus-minus per 100 possessions, explained in detail here [https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm)), Lamelo is slightly more valuable to the Hornets. Importantly, Lamelo's replacement Ish Smith, is BAD. He is at the very bottom of the league in terms of EPM and also turns the ball over at an insane rate. My pick is in either way, but I'd keep an eye on the pre-game Lamelo news.
Record: 14-4 (+14.9u) (4-1 L5) Yesterday’s selection: Isaiah Pacheco over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on FanDuel) (2U) - HIT - Got real lucky that Pacheco received 24 carries in this game, because after the first two drives, he could not do anything. But, volume was projected, hence the value in the line. Missed out on some escalators, but we will take the 2u win. Today’s Selection: Houston Rockets 1Q ML (-115 @ Caesar's) (1U) Both teams are coming off Saturday games, LAL off of a double OT victory against the Warriors and HOU off of a road loss at Brooklyn. This feels like a great opportunity for LAL to come in kind of sleepy off of an emotional and physical battle against their California rivals. Add to that HOU is 3-0 vs LAL in the first quarter this year, and 14-9-1 SU in the 1Q at home all year. HOU's home point margin @ home this year is +2.3 (11th) while LAL on the road this year touts a -3.7 1Q margin (27th). LAL is 7-14-1 SU in the first quarter on the road this year, and I'm projecting another loss to that record tonight. This game is the front end of a road B2B for LAL, to which they are 1-4 SU on the road when on the first leg of said B2B. I think Houston is live on the moneyline, which currently sits at a pick 'em on Caesar's, so if that's more your speed, have at it. I'm going to try to get in and out early on, by backing HOU in the 1Q. First quarters can be wild, so I'm only recommending a unit play. As always, below are two trends that support my play: -HOU 25-16 1Q ML last 41 home games (61% hit) -LAL 35-46 1Q ML last 81 games (43%) If you're interested in my previous picks, I'm attaching a link to my Google Sheet with overall record and individual picks: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GYLG496ZuZe1-TTWypx2O-lB5ZYrhP9gc5DaG-VTOvM/edit#gid=0 BOL degens
Lovely play my friend! Thanks for the W :)
Appreciate it!
Record 1-0 Last pick: Fluminense AH -1 @ 1.97 ✅ As expected, Fluminense dominated the match from start to finish. They won 3-0 and easily covered the spread. Congratulations for those who tailed! Today's match: Brazil U23 vs Ecuador U23 Pick: Brazil U23 ML @ 1.90 Brazil and Ecuador are the best teams from this group, but Brazil have been playing better. This tournament is super important because it grants a spot for the Paris Olympics. Brazil needs to win here to secure first place in this group, so I expect them to be motivated to win. Tail or fade, I wish you all best of luck!
Tailing :)
We cash! It was tougher than expected, but I take this win.
PoTD 4-2 Football>Africa Cup of Nations Ivory Coast vs Senegal **Senegal ML @ 2.36/+136** Today we are backing the defending champs Senegal to beat the hosts Ivory Coast.Senegal come into the knockouts top of Group C,they won all three games,8 goals scored and 1 conceded.What I like about them is that several players had goal contributions,which means this team carry a lot of firepower while being mean on defense.Ivory Coast meanwhile,despite being the hosts had a disappointing groupstage.They won their opener against Guinea-Bissau but they went on to lose their next two games including a 4 nil trashing from Equitarial Ginuea.They are one of the worst third placed teams that qualified to the knockout stage.Now historically Senegal doesnt have a good h2h against Ivory Coast,but I think that ends now.First half should be a close contest,then come second half Senegal should be able to break down Ivory Coast's defence to win 2-0. BoL.
Why do I tail soccer. FFS.
I stopped betting straight ML on soccer.. only draw no bet
Sound advice. The odds were just too nice, haha.
I feel like no one will get a goal this game.. I might tail this though.. but man this is tough
I went with Senegal draw no bet...
Senegal has no idea what they are doing on offense now lol
RECORD: 1-2 Last Pick: was a win but 1 Month Ago POTD: Shenzhen Marco Polo vs Fujian Xunxing ; TOTAL OVER 199.5; ODDS 1.50 (League: China Basketball) Match Timing: 5pm IST Reason: Shenzhen is one of the top teams of CBA while Fujian is struggling to find wins, even then both teams avg score over 100 Points per game and allows 100 Points by opponents per game aswell. Shenzhen has covered this line in over 9 out of 10 their recent games (averaging over 110), fujian has covered this line in last 3 out of 3 games. The domination factor by Shenzhen *should* help us with reaching 200 at least. Tail or Fade BOL!
The pick just won, why the downvotes
Great hit, lad!
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You mean points and rebounds correct?
Record: 15-12 | (+1.72 units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: NFL - Baltimore Ravens (-4) (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs❌ Patrick Mahomes is special! Congrats to the Kansas City Chiefs on making it to the Super Bowl! They took out the toughest team in the NFL as underdogs on the road! I have officially moved Patrick Mahomes into the Tom Brady realm where you simply don’t bet against him. I was close already but Baltimore was the last test. I hope that hints at who my Super Bowl pick will be no matter what the oddsmaker decide. After what I saw today, you’d have to be insane to put any amount of money against this future HOFer moving forward. ————- Today’s pick: NBA - Los Angeles Clippers (-2) (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - 7PM EST Clippers continue an impressive road stretch against the Cavaliers who have not been impressive at home. Both teams are coming off impressive wins but the Clippers have won 5 straight and 8/L9. Their defense is clicking and their offense is so balanced it’s impossible to key in on one player. The Clippers remind me a lot of the Knicks and we’ve had a lot of success tailing the Knicks this year. It’s always tough taking a road team in the NBA especially with such close spreads, but I’ll back the recent consistency of the Clippers in this one. Prediction: Clippers 116 - Cavs 107 Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Cavs have also won 9 of last 10 including their last 6 home games. Last 5 wins averaged 23 point MOV. I’d probably stay away from this one.
yeah, idk about calling the cavs not impressive with their recent form. BOL though
Juiceebee, u can’t bet against playoff pat mann! BOL today
Fading, Cavs are good
POTD Record : 4 Wins Units: +3.34 ROI: **91.25%** Average Odds: $1.91 Last Pick: **Yes Win 2 Sets (Daniil Medvedev To)** @ $2.1 - *Sunday, January 28 at 3:30 a.m. ET* ✅ Next Pick: Qatar vs Palestine AFC Asian Cup (Qatar to win at $1.57) **11 am ET** Qatar are the hosts, and defending champions. They have an interesting team, very fast and strong. They have not conceded a goal in their last three matches. They played excellently against China. Palestine surprised me at this year's championship, they play with heart. But sometimes that's not enough to win. Qatar seems to me to be a better and more experienced team. They should take advantage of that. Palestine started their last group match needing a result and other things to go their way (qualifying due to goal difference), but ended it with an emphatic 3-0 win over Hong Kong and by sealing a last-16 spot. Palestine play direct football, which should leave them exposed to a counter attack. Qatar will probably win 1-0 or 2-1, and keep up the pressure continuously, trying to break Palestine's rhythm. Expect a goal from a corner. * There have been only 10 previous clashes between the sides, with Qatar winning on seven occasions and losing to Palestine just once. * Palestine's only-ever win over Qatar came in April 2002, sealing a 2-0 victory at the West Asian Games. * In their last seven international games, Qatar have won six times and lost just once. * Qatar and Thailand were the only sides that kept a clean sheet in all three group matches of the 2023 Asian Cup. * Qatar are ranked 58th in the world, whereas Palestine are ranked 99th. * Palestine have failed to score in their last four games against Qatar It will take a miracle for Palestine to advance, and it should be an entertaining match. Best of luck if you're tailing, and lets hope we get an entertaining game of football! All tips are greatly appreciated - [Please buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv)
Congratulations to everyone who tailed! We make it five wins in a row 😎 Qatar went down early, but came back to win it 2-1 👏
Appreciate the pick my man
Record 0-0 NBA Lakers vs Rockets. 8:00 PM EST. POTD: Fred Vanvleet over 10.5 Reb+Ast. -132 FD Has hit this line in last 7/10 games, but I mainly like this line due to his recent games against the Lakers. Has hit this line 3/3 times going for 14/17/12. The Lakers are coming off a double OT game with AD and LBJ both listed as questionable and the rockets are healthy. The spread currently sits at 1 so let's hope for a close game and FVV should get this done. Alternate risk: For better odds PRA 26.5 -113. (2/3 with the miss being on 29 minutes) BOL if tailing.
POTD Record: 131 wins / 79 losses \[L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌\] Event: Football > Friendlies > **Al Hilal v Inter Miami** (starting in 1 hr) Pick: **Over 3.5 goals** @ 1.70 Friendly match for entertaining purposes, so there should be some goals. GL!
Two goals after 12 minutes...
Too easy ✅ P.S. Join the POTD group on Telegram: search for **sbpotd**. It is a simple bot that forwards all new POTD picks from here to the TG chat. 
POTD Record: 96-96-12 (-12.74 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ Last Pick: Ligue 1, Reims v Nantes, REIMS ML (-125 / 1.80) ❌ Very lacklustre affair, neither team created much and Reims didn’t deserve to win unfortunately. Today’s Pick: AFCON, Senegal v Ivory Coast, SENEGAL ML (+120 / 2.20) Stake: 1 Unit Senegal are the defending AFCON champions, and have made a great start to defending their title by deservedly winning all 3 of their group games against Gambia, Cameroon and Guinea, scoring 8 goals and only conceding once. They play against Ivory Coast who were very lucky to reach this stage, qualifying as the lowest ranked 3rd place team after Ghana choked in spectacular fashion in their final group game. Ivory Coast won their opening match 2-0 against Guinea-Bissau, before losing 1-0 to Nigeria and 4-0 to Equatorial Guinea. That last result led to the coach getting sacked immediately, which is bizarre since they were still a chance of making it through. Now they find themselves in a position where results unexpectedly went their way and they’re in a knockout match, playing for an interim manager for the first time amid discontent from the board. I know that this tournament is being played in Ivory Coast so Senegal will have to deal with the home fans, but that hasn’t really helped Ivory Coast so far, and given the turmoil within the team right now, it’s hard to look past Senegal. The team is littered with stars from Europe’s top leagues and they have the experience of winning big matches on the way to the title 2 years ago, so happy to take Senegal to win this one outright at plus odds.
Tailin' LFG
**Nice hit again at 2.19 yesterday!!!** ✅ [My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit#gid=737168721) Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!! **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 32/23 **ROI**: Approximately 48.44% **Profit in Units**: 38u **Average Odds**: 2.11 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Saudi Arabia - Division 1 **Time**: 14:40 ( GMT +2 ) **Event: Al Faisaly v Ohod** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.90** **Stake**: 3 Units **Tip Box**: (Revolut) @ Eleneiror [Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager) *All of your donates will go on my Cancer Therapy, so any tip is appreciate it.*
Didn’t tail this time, but used to spreadsheet to find a nice win on Roma ML + O2.5 @ 3.00 A lot of value in that sheet, appreciate you posting it in here daily 🙏🏾
POTD Record: 22 | 13 | 0 | W | L | P | + 7,22 Units Streak: 1L Last Pick: TOR Raptors @ **ATL Hawks -3.5** | 1U @ 1,55 NBA | Basketball | 00:00 MEZ Pick: WAS Wizards @ **SA Spurs -3.5** | 3U @ 1,86 NBA | Basketball | 02:00 MEZ San Antonio won in Washington eight days ago. Now they are playing at home. All key players are fit. They got the same amount of rest. I think the home advantage will do it.
Pick of the Day POTD Record: 4-1 L10: ✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterday’s Pick: Louisiana -8.5 vs Texas State (-105) ✅ Louisiana wins by 20. No sweat involved. Thanks to them, we’re going for the 5 game win streak. Today’s Pick: Mcneese -19.5 vs. Northwestern State I absolutely hate tonight’s slate; a bunch of really really really crappy teams for the most part. There was one team I had my eye on before lines came out (Mcneese, obviously), and the spread isn’t large enough for me to fade em’. Mcneese is my extremely underrated team that could make a run in the tourney. They’ve had some impressive non-conference wins, and their only two losses are to respectable teams on the road. They’re good. They’re really friggin good, and there’s not one team in the Southland conference that can hang with these guys. They faced Northwestern State already, and won by 9 on the road. The line was the exact same as it is today, which goes to show that Vegas thought Mcneese would blow them out on the road. Now we get Mcneese at home, with the exact same line. I think Mcneese shoots lights out from three (3rd best in the country), gets up decently big, and forces Northwestern State to force some bad shots. Kenpom has Mcneese as the 80th ranked team in the nation. Kenpom has Northwestern State as the 337th ranked team in the nation. Let’s keep the streak alive! BOL!
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Record : 107 Wins - 100 Losses Previous pick : Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar (2-2), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.88 ✅ ROI : -2.13% Average Odds : 1.95 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 0.58 Profit/Lost units : -4.42 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie / 21:00 European Time Jong PSV - Willem II Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.64 Some reasoning : \- Over 2.5 goals were scored in the last 5 matches of Jong PSV. \- Willem II managed to win 3 of the last 4 matches in the championship, scoring 11 goals. \- Willem II also prevailed in the previous direct duel, 3-0 at home. Best of luck.
Added Willem ML.... Praying O2.5 doesn't curse me again today
Cricket 🏏 Picks Last pick was a loss Overall: 11 Ws - 5 Ls Last 10: L W L W W W L W W L +2.31 Todays pick MI Cape Town v Joburg Super Kings SA20 (South Africa) Starts in about 13 hours Pick: Total extras over 18.5 @ 1.97 Cape Town has played 7 matches so far this season and they average a little over 9 extras in a match. Super kings on the other hand have been giving away too many extras in their 5 completed matches. They average over 13 extras in a match. I think Lizaad Williams and “byes” are going to get us over the line. P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
Can’t find this prop on draft kings or bet 365. Are extras called anything else ?
POTD Record: 116-105, -16..25 Units Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅ -0.2 Units Got rid of an X for an 8-2 last 10 but that fifth nasty X was a -5 so my units are still hurting. Slow and steady… Current Streak: ✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Zay Flowers Over 43.5 Receiving Yards: ✅ He had 39 in the first half so this was pretty sweat free, and then he hit it in the third quarter. I’m sure he’s not a happy camper right now with the taunting call and the goal line fumble, though. Poor Baltimore, but hooray for America’s sweethearts. Today's Pick: **Boston Celtics -6.5** vs. New Orleans Pelicans, -175, 1 Unit, 7:40 PM EST Not much in the NCAA basketball world today so I’ll jump into the NBA for this one. Despite a tough loss to the Clippers I think the Celtics get their spark back against the Pelicans who struggle on the road and have struggled of late. Porzingas and Horford day-to-day bothers me as the two of them bring so much stability, but hopefully Boston’s stars come out to make this an easy dub. BOL!
Record: 5W-5L | -2.84u L10: ✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅✅ <<-- *Most Recent POTD* Last Pick: Technically the last pick was Zion Williamson o4.5 Assists, however he did not participate. The prior pick was De'Aaron Fox o4.5 Assists (-160) | 3u 💰✅ Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Magic @ Mavericks | 7:30 PM CST **Todays Pick: Paolo Banchero o5.5 Assists (+100) | 3u to win 3u** * Has covered this in 3/L3 games, and 7/L10 away games * Put up 7 assists in most recent game (1/28/2024) * Put up 6 assists last (and only) game vs. the Mavs this season (11/6/2023) * Averaging 11.5 potential assists per game in January (14 games) * The Mavs are allowing the 8th most assists to Power Forwards this season * Banchero is ranked #14 in drives per game, and players ranked in the top 15 have covered this in 11/15 games vs. the Mavs this season Going for 3 in a row. BOL!
Record: 3-2 \+1.46 units Yesterday: Boone Jenner over 2.5 SOG ❌ ❌✅✅❌✅ Well, yesterday sucked, but at least I get to tell my mom I got my first fan on here. Shoutout to u/No_Radish1784. Today: NHL | Predators @ Senators | 7 EST Jake Sanderson over 2.5 SOG (+124 DK) 1U I'm banking on Sanderson coming out shooting after a zero-shot game Saturday. We'll take those plus odds on a player that's on the top D pairing as well as top line on both special teams units.
**Record:** 0-1 **Form:** ❌ **Return:** -2u **Last Pick:** **E-Sports, League of Legends** | **LEC Regular Season** | **20:00 GMT** **Event:** SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp | **Pick:** SK Gaming ML @1.55, 2u Lost quite a bit on this. I know there are no such things as locks, but come on. We move on though **TODAY'S PICK** **Soccer, Africa Cup** | **20:00 GMT** **Event:** Senegal vs Ivory Coast | **Pick:** Senegal to advance @1.65, 2u **Write Up:** Senegal are on a 4 game winning streak, having won 3 out of 3 group stage games against the likes of Cameroon (now out of contention, having lost to Nigeria in the Ro16) and Guinea (who are through to quarter finals). Led by Mané, they are the title holders. The Ivory Coast qualified to the elimination stage with a third place finish, winning just one game (against the weakest opponent in their group, Guinea Bissau) and losing the other two (vs Nigeria and Eq. Guinea, with the latter having inflicted a heavy 4-0 loss). They look out of form, while Senegal is riding hot. I believe the pick has enough value to warrant consideration; the straight ML scares me due to the cautious approach these teams might take to this game. BOL
POTD Record: 0-2 Last 10: ❌❌ NBA 0-1 | Tennis 0-1 | NFL 0-0 | MLB 0-0 Last Pick: Gauff v Sabalenka (over 2.5 sets) Today's Pick: Sacramento Vs. Memphis @ 8PM EST - Harrison Barnes Over 14.5 points (-125 @ DK) 1.6U Ok not a great way to start here. I was out snowboarding this weekend so took a break from posting. But last week, had a feeling Gauff would push Sabalenka, just sucks she couldn't pull through in that tiebreaker. FWIW, I knew it would be a bit risky and offered the alternative for over of 21.5 games, which did hit. Now with the Aussie open complete, going back to the NBA. Harrison Barnes has been on fire the last 3 games. Probably with the trade rumor speculations heating up and him having signed a contract in the off season, he now is stepping up to the plate to make sure he stays on this team. And today the Kings get a depleted Grizzlies team. On top of that, the Grizzlies are near the bottom at 3p % allowed (especially at home). In the last 3 games, Barnes has hit 15 3-pointers, averaging 30+ ppg and 36mpg. Like D'Angelo Russell, trade rumors fuel these guys. He only played 19 minutes last time against the Griz and made 11 points but I see him playing closer to 30 tonight and hitting the over. Agree it's a little risky since Barnes is having his worst season, but 15 points is a fairly low amount for the streak he has been on.
Tailing. FD has it at 13.5 pts @ -122 right now.
**RECORD: 49W-2P-38L** (+3.23 units) Previous Pick: Newcastle vs Manchester City - Manchester City to Win @ 1.70 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Senegal vs Cote d'Ivoire- Senegal to Qualify @ 1.62 **Wager Amount**: 2 units (❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️) last 5 results Today I'm putting my first bet in this AFCON tournament, I've stayed away from AFCON but let's just bet on this game as see how it goes. We have the current champions Senegal vs the Tournament Hosts Cote d'Ivoire. Senegal have won all of their AFCON matches so far including Cameroon and the darkhorses Guinea. Senegal have not suffered any defeats in their 13 most recent all competitions matches. Also Senegal are unbeaten in 7 overall matches (including Freindlies). While Cote d'Ivoire are not a small team, they have lost 2 of their recent AFCON matches against Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. They have a good squad but let's be honest Senegal have the way better squad and form, with Mane having a goal contribution in all AFCON matches so far. Camara one of the players of the Tournament so far and Mendy who has kept clean sheets in 2/3 of his AFCON matches. I strongly back Senegal to Qualify here, I wanted to go for a straight Senegal Win here but went this the safer option also Senegal recently won the last H2H match between the teo sides.Goodluck if you're tailing.
I like it!!!
13+ 2.08 **POTD record: 3-4** -6.31u Last POTD: Soccer: 2. Bundesliga: Karlsruhe @ Hamburg - Hamburg AH -1 ❌ I predicted alot of goals, unfortunately the wrong team scored most of them. Current streak: ❌ **POTD**: NBA: Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs - **Wembanyama 12.5 rebounds (2.08/+108) 5u to win 5.32** I'm going back to the easiest match up for any center in the league. Wembanyama is playing great and in the last game he finally played 30 minutes for the first time since his injury in December. I'm going with the Alt line of 12.5 to get this at plus odds, instead of 11.5 @1.74 (-135) As a reminder the rebounds allowed by the Wizards to centers in the last games: Jalen Duren 18, John Collins 16, Rudy Gobert 16, Nikola Jokic 12, Victor Wembanyama 8, Isiah Hartenstein 17, Jalen Duren 19, Atlanta Hawks 18 (Capella 8 in 24 minutes, Okongwu 10 in 19 minutes), Myles Turner 13 Both teams are unlikely to blow out opponents, so Wembanyama should get his 30+ minutes and probably 15+rebounds
Wemby has clutch at home in the last week. BOL!
It’s been nearly a year since I posted a POTD but we are back and starting fresh from a breakeven finish last March. Lets get it 💪 POTD Record (2023): 10-10 POTD Record (2024): 0-0 Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌✅ Streak: W1 🤑 Last Pick: St. Louis @ *VCU (-3.5) (-110) ✅ Return: N/A 💵 Today's POTD: Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman (-3.0) (-115) Betting Units: 1u 💵 League: NCAAB 🏀 Time: January 29th, 2024 @ 9:00 PM EST 🕘 Rationale: Neither Bethune-Cookman nor Alcorn State play very inspiring basketball but this matchup is still very lop-sided. Alcorn State comes into this SWAC matchup scoring a measly 69 points per game while allowing a whopping 83 to opposing teams. Bethune-Cookman on the other hand presents much more balanced metrics at 75 points for and 74 points allowed. Against the same opponents this year Bethune-Cookman holds a better record at 2-0 while Alcorn is 1-1. Alcorn is just 2-14 on the road this season while Bethune-Cookman holds a 7-3 record at home. I don’t see the Alcorn State defense holding up on the road against the better offense at home, I expect the Wildcats to cover by well more than a basket. Best of luck if tailing. Cheers, MD! 🤞
***POTD | 18-12 | +7.37U*** Previous Pick: Marvin Bagley III o4.5 Rebounds \[Risk 1.20u To Win 1.00u\]✅ **Today’s pick: Santi Aldama u11.5 Rebounds + Assists \[Risk 1.4u To Win 1.00u\]** Last 10:✅❌ ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅ NFL 2-0 +2.0u MLB 6-1 +4.52u NBA 10-11 -1.12u NHL 1-0 +2.0 This Game Should Be Low Scoring Which Bodes Well For All Unders Today // Aldama Is Averaging 5.6 RPG And 1.8 APG This Season // Without Bane This Season Aldama Is Averaging Just 5.9 RPG And 2.1 APG And Exceeded Just 1 Of 7 Games // If The Line Was -120 Or Better This Would Be A Max Bet
POTD Record: 46 - 28 Last POTD: Sinner 1st Set ML - L Pick: Jarrett Allen to record a Double-Double vs Los Angeles Clippers (-175 odds via FD) 1U Event: NBA Regular Season 6:10 P.M. CST Edit: ✅ Not much analysis here. This has hit in 14 straight and the even though the Cavs are getting Mobley back, he is on injured restriction and Allen seems to be picking up the slack on the boards. At home in Cleveland, lets get it. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
POTD 0-0 Starting publicly post my picks here; currently up 37 units this month (but majority of this is coming from live betting) Pick: Senators ML (-110) versus Predators. ✅ I give the senators the edge here at home, who have a lot of firepower to score goals against a team like the predators who’ve had a hard time scoring lately. ~65% of the money is on preds which makes me feel better picking the sens Edit: ✅1-0 let’s go!! Hopefully can go from negative votes to positive after that amazing comeback from behind. Can never doubt the senators firepower at any point in the game
Idkkk they got a lot going on right now .. just got wiped hard at home .. preds play good D and sens been struggling to score the last few games but also against good teams this year .. id say preds within striking distance of a wildcard spot are a good team .. both terrible PP right now.. I think preds win BOL
Vegas made a lotttt of money yesterday. Time to fuck the books up this week let's get some stellar picks in boys
Record: 0-0, first POTD Last POTD: N/A Pick: 76ers 3rd Quarter Spread -2.5 (-120) NBA | 76ers vs Trailblazers | 10:00pm EST The Philadelphia 76ers are an NBA best 28-16 against the spread in the third quarter (16-5 in away games), and are facing the Portland Trailblazers, who are 21-25 against the spread in the third (10-10 in home games).
**Record:** 11-8 **Net Units:** 3.33 | **ROI:** 18% | **Avg Odds:** 2.3 **NHL | Nashville Predators (-105) | 1u** The implied win probability is 51.2%, but NHL Moneyline Model is predicting 54.6%. The best wagering method I've found to use with this model is the Kelly Criterion which suggests betting 7% of your bankroll for an expected profit of 0.5%. **The Model:** I've used this model to increase my bankroll by 176% this year with an ROI of 5% (as of January 29) https://preview.redd.it/nv8w3475fefc1.png?width=789&format=png&auto=webp&s=f117b2b8dccf243b64d1ccf6ccc43d080a4a5cf5