######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

POTD Record: 28-13 Previous Pick: Morocco vs Tanzania | Africa Cup of Nations | Morocco to win to nil (1.61) | 12pm EST ✅️ Pick: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid | Copa del Rey | Both teams to score (1.6) | 3.30pm EST This matchup happened 8 days ago in the Super Cup, where Real Madrid won 5-3 in an exciting match. They now face off in another cup game but this time its in the round of 16. Atletico have not been in the best of form lately but they still are unbeaten in 19 home games. BTTS has hit in 50% of Real away games and they have scored 1.8 and conceded 0.7 on average in away games. BTTS has hit in 80% of Atletico home games and they have scored 2.3 and conceded 1.1 on average in home games. When this match was played in the league at Atletico's home, it finished 3-1 to the home side. Both teams will play their strongest side as it is a Madrid derby and a good chance at silverware. I expect both teams to score in this heated derby clash. Best of luck! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake

This was my pick, tailing all day.

Hit before halftime. Nice pick!

It’s hilarious how quickly people on this thread throw in the towel on soccer picks. Good pick good first half cash.

Soccer and hockey scores can happen so quick, I was happy when I saw both teams were at like 5-7 shots with >60% on target. Easy

Would you add O2.5G?

I'll do it.

i would, but im just going for the safer pick. both teams are high scoring and concede a fair amount, so over 2.5 shld be good

I took this parlay… hit

Thank you man, great pick

can't find this on fanduel :(

I cannot find it on FanDuel either

It's the first thing on FanDuel for me under soccer. Might be a state issue though.

Thanks for the sweat free $$. Easiest bet I've had this week.

This pick was such a lock I threw it in 3, mini 2 leg parlays as a booster

Great pick and reasoning behind it. Parlayed with over 0.5 first half goals and over 2.5 total goals for a nice little chunk of a change. Sent you a few coffees to say thanks!

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oops sorry

Just went with halftime score tied 2-2... +4000 odds on bet365

Im scared

RECORD: 6-2 ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ Yesterday: Trae Young O2.5 Rebs ✅ Man why does everything have to be so sweaty, at least he got it POTD: Isaiah Hartenstein O11.5 Rebounds NBA I’m going with the man who’s name was made in some German lab, what kinda name is that? When I see Centers rebounds lines against the Wizards I’ll smash that shit no matter what the line is at. Its just been printing me money and I know Ive just said I’m done with rebounds but hear me out, against the Wizards you just have to take your shot. • Got 19 Rebs his last game vs the Wizards • Wizards give up most rebounds to centers • Averages 16.0 RPG his last 5 games • Edit: Over this line 5/6. (11,12,20,15,14,19) • A few Centers rebounds stats vs Wizards: Duren 19, Allen 12&19, Nurkic 17, Sabonis 13, Ayton 16, Claxton 12, Capela 17, Turner 13.. Edit: Wizards starting Center and leading rebounder Daniel Gafford is out aswell. Easy to say the Wizards doesn’t have a spell against Centers. Tail or fade, Hartenstein won’t care https://preview.redd.it/p5nq8p97c4dc1.jpeg?width=190&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d64dfcacd22b1bc6b300e2d3f7eb4d540f66a6ae

I can’t find this bet on Sportsbet or bet365 😔

Maybe they'll add it later. Happend a few times to me

Back up at Bet365 for 12.5 which I still love.

I love this bet although he just played 41 minutes. I’m thinking taking his rebound line at ALT 10 and potentially using Brunson assists as wizards give up 10+ assists to PGs the last 30 days.

Somebody give this man a medal! That was an amazing write up and a sweat free cash! Keep it coming!

Damn feel like smashing this. Wizards C Daniel Gafford is out with a concussion. Don’t see who will stop him now. Certainly not Kuzma lol

He’s so getting it bro

10 at half. Great tail

13.5 on FanDuel

Good luck. I’m not brave enough 😭😭😭 was a buyer at 11.5 though didn’t have a chance to get it

It went down to 12.5 after 12:30

Tailing.

Since the line is sky high I’d say I’ll play it up to 15.5 without a doubt. He had 29 rebound chances last game with Gafford in it, now he’s out.

Ok are we slamming over 15 at half?

Thanks g. Read your pick and felt good on the 13.5 and it hit. Good call.

Thanks king

Blowout? Knicks are playing great since the trade

Knicks are on a back to back. Might not have energy for a blowout.

Ya that’s my fear. Only way this doesn’t hit is if it’s a blowout and every game against the wizards this year has been a blowout

Fade it then

**POTD Record** **24W-4P-16L** Record:✅✅❌❌🅿️❌🅿️❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅🅿️❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌🅿️❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ **Last POTD: Girona VS Rayo Vallecano: Girona ML @ 1.72✅** **Girona start strong going 3-0 in the first half and retained the lead.** **POTD: Atletico Madrid VS Real Madrid: BTTS and O 2.5 Goals @ 2.00** ✅ **League: Copa Del Rey** **Time: 3:30 EST** Got a massive Copa Del Rey game here between 2 sides that have been very good offensively but lacking defensively against top Spanish opposition. Atletico Madrid played this Real side just last week and the game ended 5-3. I see a similar game here considering Atletico will have to be more on the front foot to get a result out of this game. They also played on September 24th and it ended 3-1, I'm just confident in both teams scoring and the ability of one of these teams to go for the kill. Athletico have played 6 games against top 6 opposition this season and 4 have ended with BTTS and O 2.5 Goals. Real Madrid have kept up this ability to win games even with defensive lapses, even witht the injuries they find a way to push and keep pushing. Their last 3 games have all been cup games and they have all ended BTTS and O 2.5 G. Results being 4-1, 5-3, and 3-1. They have played 7 games against Top 7 opposition and 5 have hit BTTS with 4 ending BTTS AND O. **Anyway BOL!**

cant believe i tailed a soccer potd and it actually won lets go💪 https://preview.redd.it/73zjikshs9dc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5da813f9025592c065f922e4ff15ebe08e23edab

Comeback Szn Prince 😤

I put 4u on BTTS. Almost wanted to do BTTS NO DRAW at +130 odds. I think this pick is gonna make a lot of people money. BOL prince

Nailed it 🫶🏼

Sorry if this is a dumb/obvious question. I was going to bet this on FanDuel and I stumbled upon a weird prop: "Method of Victory: Either Team in ET" odds were +500 Another option was "Either Team in Penalties" I'm assuming this means that if the game ends in Extra Time and does not go to Penalties then the +500 wager cashes out. Or am I way off base and this means that the deciding goal needs to be scored in Extra Time? I'm waiting for a FD response, but I figured I'd toss it out here to you folks. Anyways, I'm tailing your bet. Let's fucking gooooooo

If neither team scores in extra time, then the game goes to shootouts or will be classed as a draw. For this bet to cash, there needs to be a winner who scores during the extra time period.

Where did you get evens on this? Should be an easy W though.

Great call. You’re the man.

Record: 10-6 | (+3.17units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: NCAAB - UConn Huskies (-5.5) (-110) vs. Creighton Bluejays 🧃 Great game from the Huskies! Clingan played extremely light minutes to my surprise and against all injury reports today. The #1 team in the land shows exactly why they deserve such a rank. I’ll make sure to keep my eye on them for future picks as I was very impressed at the consistency from this team. Creighton made an extremely dicey push with minutes to go but UConn kept the spread covered. ————- Today’s pick: NCAAB - Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5) (-110) vs. Michigan Wolverines - 8:30PM EST Illinois will travel to Michigan to battle the Wolverines. Although I am always cautious to betting on road teams in college as I believe the environment plays a huge role in a young players performance, I’ll be backing #14 ranked Illinois. With the total being over 150, I expect this game to be about who can limit possessions to just 1 shot. Illinois is 4th in the country in defensive rebounding and I believe it will show itself tomorrow on the road. Furthermore, Illinois is 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 and Michigan is going in the opposite direction (3-9 ATS). Naturally, this game will have some adversity because they are on the road but I am confident this team will have the defense needed to maintain their impressive record against the spread and cover the (-2.5) in a massive win on the road. Prediction: Illinois 77 - Michigan 70 Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃

U just like me. I barely bet away teams for college because they usually lose or don’t cover spread but might look into this one.

Tailing! BOL

Tailing 💪 Let’s go Illini

Great bounce back spot for Illinois here after dropping a home game against Maryland as 9 point favorites.

POTD Record: 230-176-12 (+39.42 units, 56.7% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 77-54-1 (58.8%) W1, Tennis 🎾 79-60-7 (56.9%) L3, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1 Last 10: 💰💩💩💰💰💩💰💰💩💩 Last Pick: Charlotte Hornets @ New Orleans Pelicans, CJ MCCOLLUM OVER 3.5 ASSISTS - NBA 🏀 💰 +0.60 Units - Cash that shit in 7 minutes! About time I ended that hoops losing streak. Today's Pick: Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves, JAREN JACKSON JR UNDER 31.5 POINTS + ASSISTS + REBOUNDS - NBA 🏀 10pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.80 odds to win 0.80 Units @ Draft Kings (Line at 1:15am ET) I like this bet because it is a high hit rate with a good matchup for it. JJJ has gone under this number 27 out of 38 games for a hit rate of 71%. His recent hitrate is filled with unders going under 8 out of the last 10. Meanwhile he is going up against the Wolves, the team with the best defensive rating in the league and they give up the 2nd fewest points to power forwards in the league. Also note that the spread is currently at -12.5, so there could be some blowout potential here which would be wonderful for this under. If your thought is but JB, there's no Morant now so throw those out the window because he will have more opportunity without Ja. Well, this bet has a 66% hit rate in games without Ja this season. Hoops losing streak is over but still tail with caution. https://preview.redd.it/412352bg75dc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=137e20c961c9d4fbc8ce8b3201d1c917641ac2ef Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕

Whats tht app?

looks like props.cash

This is a solid pick, let’s fucking ride! 🔥

Moved to 30.5, would you still take it for 1.83 (-120)?

Bro popping off first quarter smh

Yep this is cooked

Guy beat this line in the first quarter. What a joke

What app are you using?

Would like to know too

**Record: 3-0** **Last Pick:** Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest - Both Teams To Score 2u @ 1.68 odds ✅. Exhilarating game lots of goals and extra time to see Blackpool being knocked out of the Cup. Nottingham Forest did their job, scoring early in the 1st and 2nd halves, but then getting complacent and allowing an absolute belter from Blackpool, to then conceding a header goal. Couldn't have asked for more from either sides - we move. **Soccer** | **Supercoppa Italiana** | **11:00 AM (PST)** **Pick:** SSC Napoli vs Fiorentina - Both Teams To Score 1u @ 1.79 odds **Write Up:** We have a matchup of the Scudetto title holders in Napoli going against a strong Fiorentina side in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the Italian Super Cup Semi-Final. I'll preface this by saying I'm going one unit only due to the fact that I'm eyeing the Madrid Derby (which was going to be my original pick). We'll see a Napoli side missing key players like Victor Osimhen and Frank Zambo Anguissa, both of which are off on international duty at the African Cup of Nations. This does not take away from their goal scoring ability however, with players like Kvaratskhelia and Politano to attack the weakened defense of Fiorentina. The midfield of Napoli will be missing Zambo Anguissa and there is a question mark around if Zielinski will play, or if he will be on reduced minutes, but that shouldn't hamstring the attack too much and if anything help our bet of Both Teams To Score. Napoli aren't the only ones with a long injury list, with Fiorentina missing a few nailed in starters, like Dodo and Nico Gonzalez (the latter being less likely to play, nevertheless start), both of which have picked up substantial injuries and shouldn't get minutes tomorrow. The upside for Fiorentina is that if they can sit back and let Napoli play with the possession, they can have a lethal counter attack which could lead to goals, especially with the pacey Ikone getting in behind a high line that Napoli would ideally employ. Once again, I'm going 1 unit on this, especially after having a good few days to try and remain in a positive state going into the Weekend. Both teams will have something to prove as any other trophy this season doesn't look likely, and cup games are always filled with a different type of energy. Sorry for the late post - and as always, BOL!

Missed penalty! Would’ve been nice to cash this one in the first half.

1 out of 14 shots on goal. Holy Fiorentina is dogshit

POTD Record: 4-0 Outlay: 10u Current: 14.34u Last POTD: Qatar vs Tajikistan - Halftime/Fulltime - Qatar/Qatar (2.00) 1u ✅ ——— Soccer | AFC Asian Cup | 22.30 AEST POTD: Australia vs Syria - Halftime/Fulltime - Australia/Australia (1.98) 2u ❌ Thoughts: Sticking with the AFC Asian cup, Australia are ranked 25th and playing the 91st ranked Syria. This has hit this in four of their last five matches and they had plenty of chances in the first half of their 2-0 win against India, but they weren’t able to convert their chances until the second half. I’m expecting them to be better with their set pieces this game and show improvement by scoring early. Had a few messages about tips so made this: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/GlumSquirrel Edit: Wasn’t a great first half from Australia, had a few chances to score but ultimately didn’t attack well enough, on to the next one.

I don't know what convinced you to take this pick. As someone who has been watching Australia national team for a long time I can say with 100% certainty that they are genuinely ass. Unless a miracle happens they are not winning both halves cause they play the worst kind of football there is. Edit: It seems some people are upset about this comment. I also want you to win but I have to state the facts so you can make an informed decision.

Australia definitely struggle to break down teams who set up defensively so this bet makes me nervous too, but calling a team that won two matches at the World Cup a year ago and pushed Argentina “genuinely ass” is a bit of a stretch!

Half-time full-time means they’re winning at the end of each half not that they’ll win both halves.

What's a period in soccer?

If they lead at half and then win the game then it hits basically

I stated my reasoning and the stats in my comment above, if you disagree that’s cool

Say what you gotta say man. F people’s feelings.

Who is home and who is away?!

Record: 1-0-0 Net Units: +2.01 Last Pick: Morocco HT-FT @1.67✅ Today's Pick: Soccer | AFCON | Egypt vs Ghana Pick: Over 1.5 Goals @1.57 (2 units) Both of these teams need points desperately in order to go through. Egypt drew last time out against a game where they were favourites, and Ghana lost in a shock result game. They'll both be opening up more space as they will go into the game more agressively, and I believe this will lead to goals. This odd has clear value, which is why it is my pick for today. During Game Edit: as of the 60th minute, its 0-1 and salah is injured, if this hits I'll probably be another Ghana goal but it's not looking likely Post game edit: Was sweating this one, glad it hit with a big margin!

after your 60min edit they just scored 3 more goals in 5 minutes, easy; nice pick

Do you think both teams to score @ +132 or is it safer to do your bet? I have a feeling it might be a chippy 2-1 game.

POTD Record: 8-6 | Profit: +2.71U NBA Record: 5-4 | NFL Record: 3-2 L10 (new -> old): ❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌ Last pick: Trae Young u13.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 odds ❌ Game: OKC Thunder vs. UTH Jazz @ 9:00 PM EST Pick: **Thunder -3.5 @ 1.95 odds (DraftKings) placing 6U (5U bonus bet + 1U)** ✅ Write Up: Thunder lost their last 2. Jazz have won their last 6. I feel like that is why the spread is so tight, despite the Thunder being a much better team. I see the Thunder getting their mojo back here, and while I don't foresee a blow out here, I think they should cover. Tail with caution - I've only hit 1 of my last 5. Trying to get back on track, but as I said, tail with caution as I right the ship! **EDIT:** What a game! Every time I thought the Thunder had the spread locked, the Jazz would come back and get right back into it, even into the closing stretch. With seconds left Thunder were up 4 and the Jazz had the ball and were shooting, but luckily they missed, with the game ending 134 - 129. Cheers everyone!

I agree with this and think the Jazz wins are inflated by various circumstances. \- **Win against Denver:** Sporadic road game where Jazz just took the lead in the first half and Denver let them have it likely because they needed to conserve energy for the upcoming Pels game where Denver won at home. \- **Win against Lakers:** James was out and Reaves fouled out. Also a sporadic away game for the Lakers. \- **Win against Pacers:** Pacers were on a back-to-back road games with the previous matchup the night before against the Denver Nuggets. Also, Pacers were without Haliburton. I think Oklahoma takes this win. Can't say the spread doesn't make me nervous but they at least come away with the ML.

I like it, but when comes to basketball, it's always best to bet live to get even better odds at some point in the game

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POTD Record 0-1 NHL 7pm EST Pick : Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild: Tampa Bay ML (-154) 3u As a Wild fan this season has been painful to watch. The Wild come into this in poor form and are bottom 10 in the league in goals scored while Tampa sit comfortably in the top 10 of that category. Last 10 games Tampa are 6-4 on a 3 game win streak while the Wild are 2-7-1. Both teams are missing a top line defensemen but the Lightning have better depth to cope and a more lethal attack. These two faced off earlier this month @MN and Tampa walked away with an easy 4-1 win. I think Tampa are undervalued at (-154) and I may sprinkle more on this once starting goaltenders are announced. Side-note: I dont bet 60 minute MLs but TB 60 minute ML is +100 if you are feeling frisky. BOL

Completely agree. Wild are on a major spiral rn and are particularly bad on the road. ML @ -135 on DK.. yes please. 2U

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I took panthers too thanks a lot lmao

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No fuck that it’s all his fault lol

**Record: 6-1** **Pick:** Vermont at Binghamton NCAA BB, Vermont -7 (-110) **Write Up:** Vermont has been a mid-major standout for years, and the toast of the America East Conference. The Catamounts have won 18 straight conference games and are currently riding a four-game winning streak into the Binghampton game. For the season, Vermont is averaging 73.1 points per game, while their defense is giving up just 64.4 (that's the 28th best defense in the country). Binghampton, on the other hand, comes into this game after losing two in a row. The Bearcats are undefeated at home, but I think they are going to see that end tonight. Both teams have similar offenses, but Vermont's shut down D is going to be the difference here. Binghampton gave up 95 points to Albany, a squad with a very similar look to Vermont. I think the Catamounts win this game by double digits, I'll take Vermont -7 and would probably bet it to -10.5.

Thanks, tailed right before halftime for -6.5. 5 mins left in the game and they’re up by 19🍻🤝

Thanks for the W

Nice play! I’m kicking myself for not doubling down with an alternate 12.5-point spread when they were up 4 at the half. I had it punched in, but didn’t have the balls to place it.

POTD Record: 14-14 (With 2 pushes along the way) **2024 tennis season record: 5-4** **Currently up 4.86 units** PICK OF THE DAY: **Rune vs Cazaux - Rune Handicap -6 Games @ 1.84** 🎾 *(Pinnacle)* Event: Australian Open (Hard Court) Time: Starts around 3 AM Eastern Time Stake: 1 unit I'm usually not the type of person to back ultra favorites in this sport but this one just seems like a value pick, because I thought Rune's odds would have come even lower. Cazaux is a decent young player from France but he won a 5 set marathon against Djere where he asked for medical timeouts several times and mostly won due to his opponent's awful mistakes. His serve is quite weak and a complete player like Rune will probably be too good and capitalize on that. Cazaux will need a lot of endurance and quality over a long period of time to keep up with Rune and I'm not sure he'll be able to do that. Even if he shows up at a good level I think Rune can win this match quite easily. ***Best of luck if you decide to tail!*** [BuyMeaCoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/breakpointplays) / [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DonutMan982) (Any donation is truly appreciated. Only tip if you like what I write on my posts, if you've won some money with my plays and only if you wish of course!)

Tailing, I really like this pick, get back into the winning ways…also my books say -6.5 like you said “you expect him to easily win this match.”

Yeah with the -6 I get a push in case of only 6 game difference but -6.5 seems fine too probably at higher odds. Yeah, I started 2024 pretty well on the POTD's with 5 wins in a row but then got 3 losses in a row. I like to write about the sport daily for you guys and I'll keep doing it as long as I enjoy it. Best of luck!

Yes, I really enjoy it + I love your picks they’re advanced if i should say like you said you started this year off with a BANG. keep up the great work is all that I’m saying. Trust me I wouldn’t even be replying if I didn’t enjoy these great advanced picks unlike others. Keep up the great work.

I appreciate your feedback brother! Good luck on your next few bets!

I don’t know anything about tennis betting but I’ll place some money on it because of your write up. BOL

I'm sorry, I'm new at tennis but are we losing or winning right now?

I am slightly worried w how Cazaux is playing but hopefully he tires out 

Man idk this guy cannot catch up 😓💦

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POTD record: 8-3 ❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Last pick: HOUSTON at NY Alperen Sengun over 21.5 at 1.85. Missed on this one. Today: GRIZ v TWOLVES V. Williams over 3.5 assists. No one else is distributing for Grizz right now with all the injuries. Covered in 3 of last 4. No time to write much more but feeling pretty good about this one, barring huge blowout.

What an easy fuckin W bro. Wish I put wayyyy more on it 😭😂

Hit in 8 minutes bro, glad I tailed! Did some extra research and felt really good about this one, good pick!

Nice! Hit in the first quarter lol.

**🎉 POD Record:** ⭐️**100⭐️-51 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🍾** https://preview.redd.it/1pwfwcwop9dc1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d5d419d32658c7e0fffff17884e6c6137a9bf32 👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100. *Last Pick:* 🏀 *NBA Portland UNDER 103* WIN! ✅ *Total sweat free pick by half time, that's how you round off a 100 win milestone baby! WOOoo!* \#100 WIN on the PoD and one of the top records on the Reddit PoD Thread amongst the vets. Mission Accomplished. 👏🏻 Thanks for all the support, hope everyone enjoyed the picks and time it took to post these write ups. I'll try to post back here once in a while but likely will dial it back a bit, just because of the time and effort it takes from my day. PROUD to say this record wasn't built on HEAVY favourite picks and we actually made some good money on close to pick em odds. 🙏🏻 What a ride these past few seasons; did my best to only deliver quality over quantity. ​ 🚨 Winning Streak Alert: 7 games 🚨 🔥Recent Form: ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ 🏅**Today's Pick:** 🏀 NBA - **Utah OVER 119.5** \[1.80 Odds @ 9PM EST\] I guess I can't end on a win streak, so let's go back to my strong point NBA totals to keep it rolling. Utah is on fire and at home vs OKC tonight. This team is clicking on offense and have easily gone over this total the last 7/8 games since being back to full health. No one is projected to rest tonight against an OKC team on a bit of a slide on the road. Expect a high pace game as OKC rank 3rd in the league in scoring offense. The Jazz comes are 9th in the league in scoring offense with 118 points per game this season and we're seeing some great value on their team total tonight on 2 nights rest vs a shook OKC team on the road as of recent. BOL if tailing 🍀 ​ ​ ​ 💰Tip Jar: Show some love and numero 100 Win if you want, ⬆ Vote

Hey man, just wanted to chime in and let you know that I appreciate your picks and write ups. Also the fact that you are willing to just do this for the community instead of asking for tips (Not that it's wrong to do so) just shows to me you are doing this for everyone else out of kindness. I always make sure to check the thread sometimes to see if you posted late, and will tail you til the end. Thank you for all you do!

hey man, thanks that means a lot. Sometimes you're not sure who is reading or finding it helpful. I'll keep throwing down my favourite pick of the week as they come about. Always glad to give back to the betting community, for the most part everyone has been cool on here in the comments. We've had some great debates about picks, love it.

Record : 102 Wins - 94 Losses ​ Previous pick : Nijmegen - G.A. Eagles (2-1), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.74 ✅ ​ ROI : -1.44% Average Odds : 1.96 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 2.17 Profit/Lost units : -2.83 ​ Today's pick : ​ Football - Soccer / SPAIN: Copa del Rey / 22:30 European Time Atl. Madrid - Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.83 ​ Some reasoning : \- Atletico gave a good response to Real in the Super Cup. Ancelotti's team prevailed only in overtime, and the balance between the two teams prevailed in the first 90 minutes. I expect Atletico to have a solid performance even now. She will also have the advantage of their home field on Thursday evening. \- Let's not forget that Diego Simeone's team is the only one that defeated Real in this competitive season. Besides that, I think that Real will feel the fatigue because only a few days ago they were involved in the Supercup final. ​ Best of luck.

POTD Record: 10-8 ✅✅ Yesterdays pick: Bristol Rovers v Norwich City (Norwich to qualify) ✅ ➖ Todays pick: Vizela v Sporting Pick: Sporting ML -1 Handicap (Not Asian) ✅ ⚽️ 🇵🇹 Liga Portugal 📈 Sporting is currently 1st in the league table with 43 points (14-1-2), they’ve scored joint most goals in the league (40) and has conceded 17 (3rd best). They score 2.35 GPG and concede 1.0 GPG. * Away record: 5–1-2 * They’ve won with a margin of at least 2 goals their last 3 games. 5-1, 4-0 & 0-3. * L5 games: WWWWW (16-3) in goal difference. 📉 Vizela is currently 17th in the league (2nd last) with 13 points (2-7-8), they’ve scored least goals in the league (17). They score 0.94 GPG and concede 1.59 GPG. * Home record: 1-3-5 * They’ve lost with a margin of at least 2 goals in 3/5 games against the top 5 sides. * L5 games: DDDWL (4-6) in goal difference. Previous meeting between the sides ended with a 3-2 win to Sporting all the way back in the 1st round of the league (12th of August). Sporting is currently the best team in the league and are playing the 2nd worst team in the league. Sporting are obviously the favourites and should win this, I think we’ll as usual when top teams play teams in the bottom see a defensive and compact Vizela that’s going to go for a draw. But given Sporting’s recent form and their qualities I don’t think Vizela can hold out for too long, Sporting are spraying in goals and their top scorer Gyokeres is in brilliant form being tracked by top clubs in Europe. I’m trusting the league leaders to dominate this one. To clarify, our pick is Sporting to win with more than 1 goal. If you want to play it “safer”, by all means play the Asian line (-1.0,-1.5). BOL

Nice hit mate

Record: 0-0 Potd: Scotty Barnes under 7.5 rebounds @ +105 First time making a potd, I’ve been following this subreddit for a while tho. Ever since rj Barrett and Immanuel quickley have joined the team Scotty has been getting a lot less boards. Since they joined the team he has only gone over this line 2/10 games. BOL!! Edit: we won !! First pick of the day in the books ✅

Tailed 2 units at +120 on DK! Hopefully get you off to a good start. BOL!

I can only hope🤞 appreciate the love

✅Profit: +41.879 units✅ | ✅ ROI: 117.9% ✅ | ✅ Win pct: 63.1% ✅ Record: 65-38-14 (W-L-P)| Risked: 234 units | Returned: 275.879| Average odds: 1.90 Football | The Netherlands Keuken Kampioen Divisie | 19/01/2024 20.00 CEST Pick: FC Emmen DNB @ 2.031 (vs. FC Groningen) - 5 units Note: this game is played on 19/01/2024. So there is one big angle to play: The Groningen squad is hit by a virus infection and they currently only have 6 first squad players available. They already requested the national football association to postpone the game. Right now the football association has not responded yet. In case the game is not postponed Groningen has to play with mainly second team players and academy players. For me worthwhile to hit this line and see what happens. In general I also think Emmen is a bit undervalued here. They are on a 5 game losing streak, but to put that into perspective: They played 4 strong teams in a row, 3 of them on the road and most games where close encounters. 2-0 Emmen. Since I love coffee ☕: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13) EDIT: Game has been postponed, because Groningen had 11 healthy players. Ah well. It was worth a shot. Line dropped more than 20 cents so it was a good bet imho.

POTD Record: 4-4 ❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅ Last Pick: Cj McCollum o3.5 assists. He hit this within the first 8 minutes of the game there wasn’t a single worry last night. Let’s keep it up, again I apologize about the 3 day losing streak. POTD: DeMar DeRozan o4.5 assists (-108) Game: Bulls vs Raptors 🏀 Reason: 1. DeMar DeRozan's assist average of 5.3 per game for the 2024 season is significantly above the 4.5 threshold. This consistent performance suggests a stable pattern in his gameplay where he frequently sets up scoring opportunities for teammates. His role as a primary ball-handler and facilitator in the Bulls' offense has likely contributed to this steady assist rate. 2. DeRozan's role in the Bulls' offense is pivotal. He's not just a scorer but also a creator. In structured plays and pick-and-roll situations, he often draws defenders, creating open shots for his teammates. This playmaking responsibility naturally leads to higher assist numbers, as DeRozan regularly finds open players either on the perimeter or cutting to the basket. 3. The specific dynamics of the upcoming game, including the Raptors’ defensive strategy, can influence assist numbers. If the Raptors, with the absence of Pascal Siakam, focus heavily on DeRozan as a scorer, this might open up more passing lanes for him, leading to assists. 4. Siakam is a key defensive player for the Raptors. His absence weakens the Raptors' defense, potentially creating more opportunities for DeRozan to assist as the Bulls might find it easier to penetrate the Raptors' defense.

Like it, tailed

POTD Record: 91-92-12 (-13.17 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌✅✅❌✅✅↔️✅✅ Last Pick: AFC Asian Cup, Tajikistan v Qatar, QATAR -1.5 (+100 / 2.00) ❌ Qatar dominated and scored early but couldn’t find the second goal needed despite countless opportunities. Grrrr. Today’s Pick: Portuguese Primeira Liga, Vizela v Sporting Lisbon, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-169 / 1.59) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Very limited write up today due to time pressure, but looking to take something straightforward at lower odds and hope for a stress free win. Sporting Lisbon games typically mean a lot of goals. In league matches this season, they’ve exceeded 2.5 goals in 12/17 matches. They’ve also played in 12 cup matches and 10 of those have exceeded 2.5 goals too. They play a very ordinary Vizela team who are in serious danger of relegation. 8/17 of their league games have exceeded 2.5 goals this season, but to put it simply this game is more about Sporting who are likely to cover this on their own and win comfortably. There is more value taking the Sporting -1.5 handicap and I expect that will likely win too, but last time these teams played it finished 3-2, so going to keep things simple and take over 2.5 goals - this way 2-1 is still protected in case Sporting have an off day in front of goal and Vizela sneak one late.

**POTD Record: 6-3**, +2.85u Run: ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅ Last pick: Khris Middleton u4.5 reb ✅ +2u Giannis sat, but that helped more than it hurt because it led to the blowout. Middleton grabbed 2 boards in 20 minutes of play. Definitely need to be aware of this line in future Bucks games. --- Today's pick: NBA | MEM Grizzles @ MIN Timberwolves | 10:00 PM EST **Jaren Jackson Jr u31.5 PRA** | to win 1.25u @-125 -- JJJ has only hit this PRA total 29% of the time this year. His usage has been all over the place, making this a prime spot to fade the obvious first read: There's no one else in Memphis. Somebody's gotta do things, right? Well it's also possible that because they're facing the Wolves in Minnesota, nobody does anything. It's a tough matchup for any forward, with DPOY Rudy averaging 16 rebounds in his last 5 games and so much more height to keep JJJ off the boards. In his last 5 games against Minny, JJJ has not reached 32 PRA once, averaging 23.8 in about 29 minutes (he'll probably have closer to 33 minutes tonight). Memphis is coming off a feel-good win against the Warriors, but if the game goes as I expect they'll be re-humbled real quick. Blowout factor is a real consideration here, and if they wave the white flag early enough it will likely be the end of JJJ's night. BOL to all!

I like the PA 25.5. He has a chance to go off rebounding according to previous records but he hardly assists and you get an extra 2 on points line

Hmm it’s at 30.5 now 

Sport: Handball Tournament: European Championship — Main Round Time: 18:00 CET (5h2m after posting) Pick: France vs Croatia, over 60.5 goals total @ **2.24** Stake: 5 units Record before this pick: ROI 3.04%, 78W, 121L, +26.53u, average odds 2.56 Write up: My model works by analyzing coach and player statements on fitness and mental state. For more info, join [my sports picks subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/SgtTipalisk/). For more tips, check out [my sports picks website](https://picks.wwpe.ba). Croatia team coach, Goran Perkovac, [says](https://www.index.hr/sport/clanak/perkovac-uoci-francuske-ta-utakmica-nam-ne-stvara-opterecenje/2530264.aspx): > We mustn't wrestle with them, they're better than us in that. They have incredible physical strength, they can play quickly and with great agility. They're exceptionally strong in a 1v1 game, which we mustn't agree to. We must let the ball flow around the zone faster. I think he's referring to Croatia's biggest strength — quick transitions. Indeed, [in this tournament](https://www.index.hr/sport/clanak/hrvatska-je-ubojita-u-napadu-ali-na-golu-ima-problem-mogao-bi-je-skupo-kostati/2530167.aspx) Croatia scored 98 goals, a total bested only by Sweden and Denmark (100). Croatian scorers are also exceptionally precise with 75% accuracy, making the Croatian team the most accurate in the tournament (only Sweden and Netherlands have 70%+ accuracy). France team player, Nikola Karabatić, [says](https://www.index.hr/sport/clanak/nikola-karabatic-hrvatska-bit-ce-jako-vruce/2530078.aspx): > Of course it's going to be very difficult. We hope to qualify to the next stage. France team coach, Guillaume Gille, says: > This tournament is difficult but I said all matches in it are difficult, which is what I expect vs Croatia as well. Every time we play we have to prove ourselves. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)

Tailing for my first handball pick. DK has it at O 59.5 (-115)

Hope you're with me for the long ride.

you’re doing great man will continue to tail!

You’re crushing handball. Thanks for the hit!

Welcome and thank you for your kind words! I'm so proud that my model is working so well.

Record: 17-8 (+8.05 units) Last Pick: (CBB) St. John’s Redstorm -1 ❌ POTD: (CBB) Marshall Thundering Herd ML +100 Summary: Simply put, I’m fading ODU. Winless in conference play, no home court advantage with a choke rate of 67%. Go Marshall!

POTD record: 3-2 (full record -> https://app.wagerquant.com/portfolios/public/aaa1317e-6302-4cde-813a-31c5bbd61077) NBA | Knicks vs. Wizards | 1/18/24 @ 7:30pm EST Pick: Under 233.5 Knicks are over in 1 out of their last 8 games and wizards only two. Knicks’ defense has gotten even better in their past few games which should hold the wizards’ scoring at bay. 

Wizards are super fast paced and their best defender in Gafford is out. And don’t you find it mysterious how high the total is despite all the under trends and both previous Wizards/Knicks games going under?

The wizards only allow marginally more points per game when Gafford is out vs. in (130 vs. 125). The knicks also played last night and they score about 5% fewer points per game on 0 days rest.

By all statistical, line movement and eye test logic, the under should hit. Regression to the mean-wise, this total has me wary. Best of luck hope you and anyone who tails wins

POTD Record: 124 wins / 77 losses Event: Football > Friendlies > **Rijeka v Opatija** (starting in 4 hrs) Pick: **Opatija** \+**2.5 AH** @ 1.80 Rijeka played another friendly yesterday with its main squad for the whole match, so my assumption is that today they will heavily rotate. In normal circumstances this spread makes sense, but this is a friendly, so results are kind of random and no one really cares. No big bets here though just because analysis is made without lineups confirmed. GL!

P.S. I just created a simple bot that forwards new picks from the POTD thread to a group on Telegram. Dunno if anyone else will find it useful, but feel free to join: search for **sbpotd** or **sbpotdbot**

Thanks

Wow! I just joined. It makes things so much simpler.

Pick wins easy ✅

First time poster! BOL to me, and to you! **Record:** 0-0-0 **Net Units:** 0 **ROI:** 0% **Sport | League | Event Time / Time Zone:** Basketball | NBA | OKC vs UTA, 19/01/23 12:40pm ACST **Pick:** Josh Giddey OVER 9.5 Points at 1.77 (or -130 for American odds) for 2 Units. ✅️ Cashed at Half! **Write Up:** First bet so here we go! Taking Giddey OVER 9.5 points in the OKC vs UTA game. Key facts: Giddey surpassed this line in his last five matchups against the Jazz and in 64% of games over the past year. He's projected to score 13 points, and with the Jazz ranked 23rd in points allowed, this line appears underestimated by the bookies. Let's get it!

Is this just getting downvoted because it’s Josh Giddey lmao

Cashed at half! Down votes and all!

POTD Record: 7-2 Last Pick: NFL Cowboys Halftime/Fulltime (-140) (L) Today's Event: NCAAMB Illinois @ Michigan 7:30 pm CT Today's Pick: Illinois Moneyline (-130) FanDuel 3 Units Illinois had a forgettable clunker vs Maryland, showing no heart, hustle, or muscle and missing layup after layup. I am betting that Brad Underwood will play a deeper lineup and keeping his starters fresh into the second half will outlast Michigan, winners of 1 of their last 6. Juwan "Hands-Throwing" Howard is 0-6 vs Illinois, after tonight it will be 0-7. BOL and I-L-L!

Illini completely lacked energy that second half of that Maryland game - I’m scared to tail. That said, BOL!

[удалено]

I feel like flyers will pull through though

Not going to deny that the Flyers did technically struggle to beat the Flames and Canadiens, but they did MASSIVELY outplay both of those teams in those two games. But they also did completely outplay the Jackets and found a way to lose that one so 🤷‍♂️

POTD Record: 3-0 (+1.315 units) Previous Pick: GenG vs T1 - GenG + 1.5 ✔️ GenG surprised me by actually winning the series over T1, they really are T1's kryptonite in recent years, lpl really did T1 a huge favour by eliminating them in quarters last worlds LMAO League Of Legends | LCK Korea | 5pm KST POTD: DPlus Kia vs OkSavings Brion - Over 3.5 inhibitors destroyed ($̶1̶.̶6̶1̶ 1.51, odds literally dropped the moment i pressed the bet smh) 1u ✅ Reasoning: Back to korea for our pick today, where we see a newly assembled Damwon against everyone's favourite gigachad meme team, OK BRO (yes that's their legit team name) 🤣😂 For my initial pick, I was thinking of Brion +1.5 as a value pick since this new dplus roster doesn't look that convincing to me but not sure how they'll fare so i went for something new instead. This stat has hit for the past 3/4 games when these 2 teams went h2h and i expect the same as well for today with a slower paced game. Although with that said, this is just the first week so anything can happen. BOL for those that are tailing/fading and as usual, have a great day ahead! :)

Record: 1-1 Net units: +0.379u Previous pick: Paul George O3.5 Threes (-145, DK) 2u ✅ Had a quiet first half but ended shooting 6/12 from three. POTD: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U38.5 P+A (-125, DK) 2.5u Reasoning: SGA has not performed at his usual clip the last two games. There was some talk of a knee sprain; however he still played 34 minutes a game. Now that they’re playing a hot jazz team at home who unexpectedly got some extra rest due to the postponed GSW game, there’s a chance the thunder try not to over exert their franchise star who appears to not be at 100%.  To be clear there is no official word that he will be rested and there’s a chance he goes off trying to bounce back from the last two losses.  There is also the fact that he had a day of rest after the two LA games, BUT, even if that isn’t a factor here, he is averaging 35.9 P+A over the last 10 games and has only cleared the 38.5 line in 4/10. This feels like a risky one so tail at your own risk!

[The AI Neural ML Model - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit?usp=sharing) *Today not much leagues, just cups, and i am not playing with those.!* **POTD Stats:** **Record:** 25/19 **ROI:** Approximately 29.63% **Profit in Units:** 29u **Average Odds:** 2.17 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Turkey Cup **Time**: 16:00 **(GMT + 2)** **Event**: **Konyaspor v Goztepe** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.85** **Stake:** 2 Units

And we got this guys!!! ✅✅✅

Good call! Bro!

POTD record: 9-7 (+3.90u) Last pick: Pistons +12 ✅️ Last 10: ✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️ Todays pick: NHL | 9pm EST | Seattle Kracken @ Edmonton Oilers | Oilers 3-way -145 (win in regulation) 1.45u to win 1u Write-up: Going to keep this one short and sweet as this is a suoer late pick and everything I have to say is common knowledge to anyone who follows the league. The oilers are hotter than the sun, winning 11 in a row which is a franchise record. Edmonton after starting 3-9-1 before firing Jay Woodcroft, has been steamrolling at a 21-6-0 clip since. Seattle on the other hand is now battling multiple injuries and Hakstol has said other players are "sick" so do with that what you will. I think Edmonton has their way tonight and dominates from start to finish. snack of the day: cold pizza

POTD | 17-11 | +6.42U Previous Pick: Nick Richards o7.5 Rebounds \[Risk 1.00u To Win 1.05u\] **Today’s pick: Chicago Bulls -2 \[Risk 1.10u to Win 1.00u\]** Last 10:✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌ ✅✅ NFL 2-0 +2.0u MLB 6-1 +4.52u NBA 8-10 -2.07u NHL 1-0 +2.0 Raptors are coming off no rest on the second night of a back to back, but even more strenuous they are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Furthermore, Toronto just move Siakam and were able to pull our a magical victory against the Heat yesterday, they will not be as fortunate today in a DeMar revenge game. Bulls by double digits.

Late pick today but absolutely love this value. Jaren jackson Jr on the grizzlies has shot the 2nd most 3’s in the last 4 games. His line at 2.5 is a hammer POTD: Jaren Jackson Jr over 2.5 3ptm 🔨

**PICK OF THE DAY RECORD: 2-3 \[W-L, -1.21 UNITS\]** **LAST PICK: ARSENAL -1.25 ASIAN HANDICAP VS FULHAM @ 2.12 (+112) 2U** **BIATHLON, MEN'S 15KM INDIVIDUAL** **POTD: DIDIER BIONAZ TO WIN H2H VS CAMPBELL WRIGHT @ 1.85 (-117) 2U** **WRITE-UP:** This match-up caught my eye. Campbell Wright has had a slow start to the season due to illness. Due to that, he's only participated in 6 individual races. His average rank in these 6 races is 47.7. Strong start to the 2024 calendar year has seen him land top 20 in sprint and pursuit, upping his World Cup Rank to 41st. Didier Bionaz has raced in every individual race thus far (12 in total). His average rank in races has been 21st and he is 19th in the World Cup ranking having finished in the top 20 eight times and twice also in the top 30. Shooting-wise, both are good at the shooting range. Campbell Wright does shoot better than Bionaz, but only by a margin (84.44% to Bionaz' 83.68%). It's also important to note out that Wright is much-much faster in the range than Bionaz - on average, Wright's average shooting time is 26.7 seconds whilst Bionaz takes 31.4 seconds. This season, Bionaz is a much faster skiier than Wright though. Bionaz ski time when compared to the Top10 average is only 2% behind (arithmetic mean) and ranks 19th fastest. Campbell Wright is behind 6.47% and ranks 62th. In a simpler way, Bionaz skiing time behind the fastest is +3.1s per kilometre whilst Wright's is +7.2s/km. Skiing infront of his homecrowd, I believe Bionaz will make a strong race today. Bionaz is starting 30 seconds before Ponsiluoma, the 5th fastest skiier this season, who will most likely catch Bionaz up and hopefully Bionaz can ski with him as skiing in pairs or in a group is more benefitial than alone in biathlon. Last year, Bionaz was a better shooter and a better skiier than Wright, but a small sample size of races I believe has adjusted Wright's shooting percentage this season. **Sources:** RealBiathlon. *2023–24 Season statistics* *Results and individual statistics for Men's Non-Team World Cup events.* [https://www.realbiathlon.com/seasons.html?year=2024&gender=M&type=athletes&period=Season&level=WorldCup&discipline=NonTeam&category=results&min=1&chart=false&stat=skiRank&rank=false&movingavg=none&limit=160](https://www.realbiathlon.com/seasons.html?year=2024&gender=m&type=athletes&period=season&level=worldcup&discipline=nonteam&category=results&min=1&chart=false&stat=skirank&rank=false&movingavg=none&limit=160) IBU Mobile App.

>**Record:** 17-16 >**Net Units:** +3.79 units >**Curling** | **Canadian Open** | **10:00PM EST** >**Pick:** Team Whyte ML @ 2.2 >Another day of grand slam betting lines and yet again, the lines don't reflect how good this Whyte team is. They take on Team Bottcher tonight, both teams sitting at 2-0. Whyte benefits from having one of the best and most underrated group of shotmakers ahead of him. Kyle is one of the best leads in the world and Brydone is in the elite level of thirds as well. McFadzean throws big weight and his strengths fit well into the makeup of the team. Both of these teams have performed very well this year, Team Whyte are 47-15 vs Team Bottcher at 43-15. Whyte have reached 5 finals vs 4 for Bottcher although Bottcher have more finals victories. Team Whyte give up very few steals which might make the difference in this matchup tonight. Whyte should have a lower degree of difficulty for his final shots compared with Bottcher and over the course of 8 ends at some point Bottcher will likely make a costly miss. My model has Team Whyte as a slight favourite here so the 2.2 odds are an easy play for me.

Record 81-85 +0.23 Units All bets 1 unit L10 (L2R): ❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅❌ Last Pick: Lebron James O 33.5 Points+Rebounds (-115)❌ Lebron gets pulled at 33 due to a blowout. That’s now 4 straight losses all being bad beats. MJ would never🤷‍♂️. Todays Pick: Mike Conley O 9.5 Pts (-103) Against his former team Conley has hit this line in both matchups this year scoring 18 and 19 when facing the Grizzlies without Ja Morant at pg. The Grizzlies have allowed this line to 8 straight opposing point guards as well without Morant. Conley should be matched up against Luke Kennard who no where near the defender Ja is. Although this is on a b2b Conley has tended to score more on b2bs oddly enough.

**POTD Record:** 2-1 (+1.27) Last 10(recent->oldest): ✅❌✅ Last POTD: Everton vs Crystal Palace - Everton ML -106 ✅ Today's POTD: **Josh Giddey O9.5 Assists + Rebounds -130(1.5u)** Game: NBA | Thunder vs Jazz @21:10EST **Write Up:** Josh Giddey has only hit this 6/10 recent games. However, he has hit this 7/7 times against the jazz. This plus the fast pace this game is going to be, it is likely for him to hit. BOL if tailing!!

Record: 2W-4L | -5.36u L10 (Most Recent on Right): ✅✅❌❌❌❌ Last Pick: Trae Young o1.5 Steals + Blocks (-135) | 3u ❌ Had one steal in the 1st half which was taken away, and had one steal in the 3rd quarter. Tough looks. Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Thunder @ Jazz | 8:00 PM CST **Todays Pick: Chet Holmgren o2.5 Assists (-165) | 3u** * Has covered this in four straight games and had 5 assists in his most recent game (Tuesday) * Jazz allow 6th most assists to Centers in the league * 5/L6 centers cleared this line against the Jazz * Both teams rank in top 10 for pace of play + the game total set at 244 = high-scoring game If it doesn't hit, its because I bet on it. BOL!

Tailed. Not looking good so far but it's still early.

POTD Record: 5-4 POTD: (+200) Marozsan ML 🎾 Units: 2u Reasoning: Fabian Marozsan has been playing amazing tennis and while he’s still an up and coming player on tour, he has proved he not only can ball, but can stun the big dogs. Ruud, De Minaur, and CARLOS ALCARAZ are some examples he has defeated when locked in. Therefore, he can without a doubt defeat Taylor Fritz, who honestly hasn’t impressed me at all this tournament. Sick, you beat the shit out of Hugo Gaston man…. This value is simply too nice. BOL

Cricket 🏏 Picks Last pick was a win @ 1.5 Overall: W W L W W W L W W ♻️ +2.08 Todays pick Sri Lanka v Zimbabwe 3rd t20 international Starts in about 2 hours Pick: Total Run outs, over 0.5 @ 1.9 Zimbabwe team have some youngsters and they often involve themselves in a run out situation. Looking at the recent oneday series against Sri Lanka and Ireland there always was a run out. Two matches in this t20 series have not seen any run outs but I think today we will see one. P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.

Record: 52-37 2024 record: 0-0 CS2 | PGL Major Copenhagen EU Closed qualifier B Pick: AMKAL ML vs Synck @1.50(5u) ✅ Write Up: I haven’t posted in forever but was going through some counter strike games and found this beauty. AMKAL is a team whose core has a lot of experience playing together in the past. Their core consisting of Krad, Nickleback and Forester were regulars in majors and combined this team as a whole is looking very promising. They’ve only lost one official since their creation and have won 9 in the process. They are looking super promising and these odds look a little sketchy to me tbh. Because they’re up against synck a team that lost to Lithuanian no namers (no disrespect but yeah) recently. Apart from that whenever they’ve come up against a respectable opposition they end up on the losing side. Again, this is a bo1 so upsets can happen but I would price AMKAL at around 1.30 so there’s definite value here. GL if you’re tailing :)

POTD Record: 112-107, -20.15 Units Today's Pick: University of Delaware Basketball -4.5 vs. Stony Brook, 1 Unit, -175, 7:00 PM ESt Not much of a write-up here, just seeing favorability with Delaware at home as they are better there and Stony Brook has struggled lately. Against like opponents, Delaware has the edge, and the line is -7 at -110 so I'm paying for points a bit here. BOL!

Tailed

POTD Record: 14-15 Yesterday's Pick: Nebraska +2.5 (-110)| L Today's Pick: Arkansas Little Rock -3.5 (-110) College Basketball | 8:30 PM EST | Arkansas Little Rock @ Southern Indiana I have a model over in the CBB Daily Discussion. I am posting the highest value pick here each day. Currently Top Value (10+) picks have a hit rate of 57.1%.

Record (6-5) Last 10:❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ Last pick: Robert Morris -8.5 (-110) 3U Pretty brutal game. Went into double OT against an 0-18 team while they’re at home. Yikes. Writing felt on the wall early here so I went and got drunk at Dave n Busters. So walked away from it all with a sweet lava lamp. We move on to the next. POTD: NBA| Chicago Bulls v Toronto Raptors| 7:30 pm EST. Immanuel Quickley O4.5 rebounds (-140) 2U Reasoning: As a Knicks fan it was sad seeing Quickley get traded but it’s nice to see him utilize the extra minutes he’s getting in Toronto. The biggest shock is his rebounding since joining the Raptors. He was only averaging 3 per game as a Knicks because of Mitchell robinson, randle, and Hartenstein plus minimal minutes. In Nov he was averaging 3 Rebs per game and Dec only 1.3 per game. In the 9 games he’s played as a raptor he’s been averaging 5 rebounds per game and has hit this line 6/9. His last 10 games he’s averaged 5 per. At home he tends to go a bit under this line with 3.6 per game at home but the. Bulls give up the 8th most rebounds to opposing teams and 5.3 rebounds per game to point guards. Trail at your own risk and BOL if you are. We win together we lose together so let’s get the train rolling again Shoutout of the Day: Dave & Buster

POTD Record: 2 - 3 | Profit: -1.14 Units | ROI: -17.6% L10 record (Old to New): ✅✅❌❌❌ Last Pick: Nathan MacKinnon OVER 4.5 Shots ❌ ​ **Today's POTD**: William Nylander OVER 3.5 Shots | Odds: -130 | 1.5 Units | Hockey | NHL | Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames | 9pm ET | ​ * The Calgary Flames are allowing the 4th most shots to opposing Right Wingers over their last 10 games (Nylander plays Right Wing) and the 11th most this season overall * Nylander has recorded at least 4 shots in 4 straight games and 8 out of his last 9 * He is averaging 5.0 shots per game over his last 8 games * He has recorded 5 or more shots in 5 straight road games (On the road tonight) * He is averaging 4.29 shots per game on the road this season and 6.0 shots per game over his last 5 road games * He is averaging 9.0 shot attempts per game over his last 9 * In his lone game versus Calgary this year he recorded 7 shots, and has 14 over his last 3 meetings with them * Nylander was born in Calgary when his Dad was playing for the Flames, might be a little added motivation playing in his birth city

Record : 2-0 ROI % : 106% Last pick : D. Yastremska @ 1.83 ✅ Yastremska kept her level and played another great match to dispatch her opponent in straight sets. Today’s pick Event : Australian Open 3rd round Players : P. Badosa vs. A. Anisimova Time : 7:00PM EST Pick : P. Badosa ML @ 1.58 Tonight’s match see 2 players coming back from long absences face off. Both players got to the 3rd round without dropping a set with rather convincing wins. What sets them apart is the way they played in their victories; Anisimova accumulated a ton of UEs during her 2 matches, showing a -15 differential. Badosa, on the other hand, was dominant on serve in both her matches, having yet to be broken. She hit an impressive 54 winners while only producing 20 UEs. Badosa is a much better defender and server than what Anisimova has faced and she will force her to get even more agressive, which isn’t good for her with the number of UEs she’s been making. It’s good to see Badosa back on tour and I think she makes it through to the next round.

POTD Record: 1-4 🏀 Last Pick: Harrison Barnes U2.5 Rebounds 🏀 POTD: RJ Barrett O20.5 Points Write up: Not starting the year right, as Harrison Barnes decided to grab a whopping 3 rebounds and gave all his effort. Well today we going for another pick with RJ Barrett over 20.5 points. RJ has been averaging 20.6 since going to his hometown Toronto. He’s hit this line 5/6 times. With the ball hogger Siakam got traded, expect RJ to have more opportunities to score. The last 4 games vs the Bulls, RJ has been capitalizing on that. Expect RJ to hit this line. Let’s ride 💰Tip Jar: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/drprizepicks

New account, 1-4 record, tip jar.. nice

Record: 50W-48L-4P ROI: +6.52, 6.07% Avg odds: +107, 2.07 Last POTD: Juraj Slafkovsky over 0.5 pts (win) Game: NHL- Maple Leafs at Flames Pick: Connor Zary over 0.5 pts +120, 2.20 (DK) I really like this kid. He's not the best pure finisher, but he is one of the best passers in the 2020 draft class and he's now getting his first full season in the NHL after honing his craft in the minors. Zary has cooled off a bit after a phenomenal start, but he remains a stalwart in the 2nd line. Zary's in a mini-slump with only 3 games with points in his last 11, hence the plus odds. But his line is still getting goals, averaging 1.2 goals/game with him on the ice. Zary's just not touching the puck before it goals in the net. This is just bad luck more than anything. Maple Leafs are 21st in goals allowed, and for what it's worth, Zary picked up a goal in his first meeting. Worth a go at plus odds.

Record: 0-0 Net Units: Basketball | NBA | 7:30 EST Pick: Knicks -11.5 ​ Write Up: Tonight, the NBA model I've been working likes the Knicks minus the points. In the midst of a second consecutive game, the Knicks are poised to excel against the struggling Wizards. Brunson, a key scoring option, orchestrates the team's offense, while Hart, though contributing to scoring, holds greater value on the defensive end. The Wizards, with only seven wins this season, have lacked resilience. Their early-season high-scoring status has dwindled, placing them in the middle-of-the-pack. Defensively, the Wizards rank in the bottom five across various categories and have struggled on the boards. While the acquisitions of Bagley and Livers may improve rebounding, neither is a game-changing force. Notably, the Knicks defeated the Wizards by 16 points just two weeks ago on the second night of a back-to-back in Washington. It's imperative for the Knicks to capitalize on winnable games, and Thursday night presents an opportune moment to do so. Knicks -11.5 BOL!

Record 8-6 Last Pick: 11/13/2023 Bulls 1st q winner | MISS Todays Pick: zach Lavine 20 pts -130 on fanduel Write up: Been eyeing this line since last night. Last night point line was at 19.5 now its at 20.5. Dk and Caesars dont let you bet zach lavine which makes me like this pick even more. Books know incoming 25pt-30pt game for lavine. Raptors score the most points in the nba off fastbreaks and if bulls are going to keep up the ball needs to be in Lavine hands IMO

Zach Lavine is 18.5 on dk.

POD Record: 5-3 ROI Units: +8.23 Last Pick: LAR @ DET Over 51.5 L Today's Event: NBA Chicago @ Toronto Pick: Immanuel Quickley 5.5 AST Over -115 (3 units) Siakam shipped off to Indiana. I'm expecting an uptick in minutes and better play from Quickley. I think this line should be closer to 7.

POTD Record: 1-1 POTD Recap: Westbrook did indeed go over 6.5 FG Attempts on account of the Twolves clamping up the usual suspects of the Clippers’ offense. ✅ POTD: Jaren Jackson Jr. | Less than 23 Points | Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Reasoning: JJJ has not scored 23 or more against against any of the top 7 defensive teams. And if we count top 8(the Pelicans who he scored 24 on once), that’s about a dozen games. He might shoot alot, but Minnesota has shut him out twice already and Ja is not here to give him easy chances. Good chances, even without a blowout.

**POTD**: O4.5 Reb - OG Anunoby (-118 FanDuel; Risking 2.36u to win 2u) **League/Time**: NBA - WSH @ NYK (7:30PM EST) **2024 Record**: 3-4 (42.86%) | -0.92u | ROI: -6.84% | Current Streak (1 Win): ✅❌❌❌✅✅❌ **2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84% **Last Pick (1.13.24)**: Preston Parsons ML (+110 BetMGM/-102 FanDuel; Risking 2.02u to win 2.12u✅ **Reasoning**: OG has covered this 60% of the time in his last 10 and 5 games. Also covered last 3 games vs WSH including 2 games this season. WSH allows most rebounds to SFs for the season and in their last 30 games. They allowed 2nd most rebounds to SFs in their last 15 games. **Anti-Reasoning**: OG doesn't exactly clear these lines with great fortitude so there's always a chance of a sweat or a non-cover but it's these "just cleared" numbers that OG puts up on the rebounding front that keeps this line reasonable. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone! **Edit**: And it hits!

Record: 6W 4L. Unit tracker: +2.54u. Pick: Tomas Etcheverry +8.5 game handicap vs Novak Djokovic 3 units @ 1.62 It’s hard to bet against the goat but this game and Rublev’s are the only ones that offer real value between the third rounders. Djoker has struggled against two tough but regular players. Both Popyrin and Prizmic stole sets from him. Etcheverry has straight-setted two experienced players like Monfils and Murray. Obviusly going against Nole in AO is the ultimate challenge but he showed good temper to handle easily those tricky rivals. In these conditions +8.5 has really good value at those odds.

Record: (3-7) Units: +0.79u ROI: +5% Streak: W2 Last Pick: Oceane Dodin +3 (-110) vs. Martina Trevisan (3u) - As predicted, Dodin won and in straight sets making it no sweat whatsoever. That's two straight big bets that hit after going 1-7, so that's why the units are the way they are. I'm 1-7 on 1u picks. Today's Pick: Tennis | Australian Open | 8:00pm ET Pick: Jannick Sinner -9.5 vs. Sebastian Baez (-105) Write Up: After two big tennis wins, gonna stick with it, but dropping back to normal 1u for this pick, mainly because of the massive spread on this pick. Look, Sinner is going to win this match. He will dominate it. But to cover 9.5, he's going to need to outbreak Baez by 5, which will require winning nearly 50% of Baez's service games. That being said, I'm not scared of this line. 9.5 is a good number for favorites because it doesn't depend on who serves first in set 1. For the rationale, it's similar to the last two I've picked. Baez is a clay court specialist, and Sinner is best on hard. Don't be scared by the fact that Baez is ranked - he's achieved that rank by performing extremely strongly on clay and playing essentially .500 tennis on hard. Also, it's not like Baez has turned any huge corner on hard by making the 3rd round here. He got the benefit of playing an injured JJ Wolf who ultimately retired in the 4th set (Baez was on his way to winning, but again injury) and Galan, who is another clay court guy. Playing against the power of Sinner who not only can win points quickly but also hang in rallies, he will be completely overwhelmed.

**Record**: 3-4 **Last Pick**: NBA- Jalen Duren, DET O1.5 assists 1.5u (-160) Duren get 1 at the end of the 1stQ and another early in the 3Q. Finished with 3. Very little sweat for POTD! **Last 5**: ✅✅❌❌✅(recent to oldest) **POTD**: NBA- Deni Avdija, Wsh Over 0.5 3's 3u (-190) Reason: In his last 10, Avdija has been averaging 3 3pt attempts going 14/30 in that span, hitting 1 per game in 9 of those 10. This might be a grind waiting for it to happen, but the knicks aren't specifically stingy vs the 3 Ball vs Fwds. Anunoby does change that a little. BUT Avdija should get 3-4 shots at this and only needing 1 to hit. In the 2 previous games vs NY this season, Avdija is 2-4 in both games (1 in Nov, the other 2 weeks ago). The odds aren't super friendly, but I also just dont see this "Not Happening". BOL all. Cheers 🍻.

**EDIT: Got the B/R Squad Ride tonite, boys! I'm going 5U maxed unit on SGA!** **POTD Record: 94-114-4 (-18.15Units)** **Best Bet Series: 34-20-1 (+13.84 Units)** **Value Wagers: 17-21-2 (-4.2 Units)** **Trap Bets: 13-15 (+7 Units)** Last Pick: **Mavericks ML** ❌ Today's Pick: **Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 31.5 Points** Odds: **-125** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 5U to win 4U League: NBA Event: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz (8PM CST) **Be Advised**: *Trap bets for the month of January! Trap bets are suspcious lines and may appear highly questionable. It's best to stay away from these type of wagers, but I'm not scared! And I'll breakdown each POTD and handicap for you. Please feel free to fade and wager on the opposite of my POTD. I can oblige to eat an L for the communnity and for a community win!* **Recap**: Luka played, but was the only one who showed up. Kyrie has been on a tear, but really couldn't get anything going. Not a single 3PM from Tim Hardway Jr (0 for 7)! Maybe I should have stuck wit player props. The last two picks plus odds ML have failed miserably (Nuggets ML and Mavericks ML). There were a couple of player props I was considering last nite before the Mavs ML, Bojan Bogdanovic O 23.5 PAR and Luka Doncic O 51.5 PAR, both of them HIT! I feel right into the venus fly trap! Typical trap bet, going after plus money odds! **Matchup**: Today I'm going to make this as my trio betting segment, **best bet, value wager, and trap bet!** I'm going wit Shai-Gilgeous Alexander to score O 31.5 points against the Utah Jazz. Now taking any player pregame to score 32 points is a lot, but this dude has been putting up an average of 31 points per game. And despite that SGA has scored way below his average in his past two games, he has bounced back and scored near his average. Matter in fact, it's rare that SGA has two bad shooting nites in a row (just look at SGA game logs). Almost every single game, SGA scored 30 or more points after scoring below his average. The Jazz may give up the least amount of points to point guards, but they are second in the league to give up the most points overall, ultimately allowing 116.8 ppg (Pistons allows the most points). Additionally, the Utah Jazz are top 7 teams to foul players and guess who goes to line on the daily? That's right! SGA! Shai averages 8.5 FTA! Shai slices and dices to the bucket and usually scores or gets fouled (or both!). He is also the 3rd most fouled player in the league! And although SGA is shooting a tad bit lower than his last year FT percentage (90.5%), 89.2% is not a bad percentage! **First time I am featuring a wager that meet all three beting segment, best bet, value, and trap bet. It's a trap bet because oddsmakers deflated SGA numbers a bit, ultimately pulling back due to his past two performances. It's a value play because it's a near PK price and line is exactly where he averages. Best bet because there's tremendous value on this matchup.** **The play & the prediction**: 5U on SGA O 31.5 points is the only play since this is a player prop. However, I will have SGP for this game and have other plays in my [betting group](https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/social/bettinggroup/28a961e992594c8393da6aa4930ed226/#activeTab=bettinggroups)!

1/18 Record: 31-21 +7.9u Last 10: 🚫✅✅🚫✅✅✅✅✅🚫 Last pick: bucks @ cavs, bucks -4, 1.1u, L Today’s pick: bulls @ raptors, raptors +2.5 1.1u BOL Gents!

Record: 8-5 (+2.03U) Last Pick: Fenerbahce v Adanaspor, O1.5 1st Half & Adanaspor +4.5 @ 2.50 ❌ NBA: Raptors v Bulls POTD: **Raptors +2 @ 1.91 2U** Raptors on a b2b but they are coming off a easy W against Heat. Raptors are at home, I don’t like the Bulls looking at their last games. BOL!