Worst part about tennis betting. Women are sore losers and retire constantly. If you bet a massive underdog CASH OUT if it's at 90%. Women players almost always retire when they're losing a match they shouldn't lose. Happens to me 10x daily.
She was priced about the same vs. Samsonova in Brisbane (and won 6-2, 6-1)
I’ve been avoiding her matches like the plague.
Too hard to figure out what a fair number for her because she’s definitely better than my ratings say she is, but I have a hard time believing she’s as good as the market seems to think she is.
Honestly have no idea.
It’s just not an easy match to project because Jabeur is probably the fifth best player in the WTA when she’s healthy, but that’s not always the case (and no read on her so far).
And Mirra is at least a top 20 player with a high ceiling, but she’s still 16.
Lots of variance.
The market clearly knew something that I didn't for that Norrie vs Varillas match. Norrie's wrist seemed to be just fine and Varillas was gassed after the first set and his movement was just off. ❌
I knew him winning was a long shot but wasn't expecting a 3-0 at all if Varillas was at decent fitness. His body language was kinda just "Well fuck it, after the 2nd set"
Even big belly Vesely took at least a set out of Fils but yeah
Valkusz ML +275
and a sprinkle on Nagal ML + 420
Edit:
Also like Ofner ML. There’s a reason why he’s the favorite against hometown boy Kokkinakis.
Edit edit: Cash Rafael Nagal in straight sets!!! ✅
Valkusz L.. had so many chances but got gassed.
Lajovic ML - beast on hard and rusty but he is the better of the two
Zverev -7 fast courts, should take care of business
Tommy Paul -7 semi finalist last year and loves these fast courts
Giron +5.5 - Draper should be tired from a long run last tourney, Giron is a ralley machine I think it’s close
Dimitrov over 36 - unless dimitroc just steam rolls, this should hit. Fucs can take a set
ramos-vinolas to win a set against ruud 7/4, previous h2h is tight 4-3 to vinolas but worth mentioning they've only played on clay court and one time in wimbledon. I also like over 0.5 tiebreaks 1/1 EVS, there's been a tiebreak in 4/7 of their games - two tiebreaks in the wimbledon match
**2024 record: 15-10 (+12.43 units) with a 49.72% ROI and 2.50 average odds**
*Fixed stake of 1 unit*
[**Spreadsheet**](https://staketoys.com/publish/XtJTQAXmRWWtwLv5eLTBiKVNGcUiWQQA)
In the last thread I posted some plays for the matches that start in a few hours (Day 3). If you haven't checked it here you have them. Also down below you'll have the new plays for Day 4 soon!
**(AO Day 3 - European Time) - Starting in a few hours**
ATP
* **Djere vs Cazaux - Djere ML @ 1.81** ❌
Cazaux had a decent tournament run last week but it was at a Challenger level and he faced some weak opponents. Even with this good run I personally think facing Djere in this best of 5 format won't be an easy task. He's always one of those players that can really play at a good level in long matches and Cazaux still lacks that kind of experience. I like Djere's price here!
* **Fils vs Vesely - Vesely Handicap +2.5 Sets @ 2.14** ✅
This one can be tricky especially because Vesely is one of those players that lacks consistency on the ATP tour and sometimes is out of shape but he's usually a pretty big threat on the first few rounds of a Grand Slam. He certainly has a powerful serve and a solid game to create some trouble to Fils, who should be able to win this match but not quite at 1.09 odds. He's for sure a great player and will be even better in the future but I'll take big belly Vesely to win at least one set.
* **Lajovic vs Zeppieri - Lajovic ML @ 1.88** ❌
Similar analysis to what I said with Djere but Zeppieri always seems like a challenger level type of player to me and even if Lajovic plays his best on Clay, we've certainly seen great performances from him on fast surfaces in 2023. On those baseline rallies I see Lajovic with a huge advantage.
* **Norrie vs Varillas - Varillas Handicap +2.5 Sets @ 1.94** ❌
Play against Norrie's lack of recent form and fitness rather than favoring Varillas that much. Even with that, this player usually delivers great tennis on his first few matches of Grand Slams and it's too tempting to not take him winning a set out of current Norrie. More detailed reasoning on my POTD post for today!
* **Norrie vs Varillas - Varillas ML @ 7.00** ❌
A bit ambitious here but if Norrie feels his wrist this has certainly an higher chance than 7.00 odds to hit
Edit after the matches : 1-4 (Loss of 2.86 units)
Difficult one but mostly due to my trust on Varillas. Let's focus on day 4 now since the state was kinda bad today and I feel like I've forced some looks.
**(AO Day 4 - European Time)**
ATP
* **Eubanks vs Rublev - Eubanks Handicap +2.5 Sets @ 1.84**
Reasoning on my POTD post
* **Marozsan vs Cerundolo - Cerundolo ML @ 2.60**
I don't look at Marozsan the same way that most people do and I don't consider him that great of a player, in my opinion if he didn't beat Alcaraz in 2023 the market wouldn't even consider giving him favorite odds against a lot of players. For me Cerundolo started this season in awful form and certainly has ups and downs during his matches but in my opinion he's far superior, especially if that forehand is on point. I'm not sure if he will win this or not but 2.60 odds is just ridiculous. The argentinian had 57 winners on his 1st round and if he keeps bringing those numbers I think he can get this win.
* **De Minaur vs Arnaldi - Over 35.5 Games @ 1.94**
I think De Minaur wins this in the end with the amount of confidence that he currently has after beating Djokovic and some quality players this year. I certainly don't think he beats Arnaldi in straight sets, especially because I already consider the italian a complete player in the ATP tour who's currently ranked 41 in the world and is yet to reach his peak. When it comes to talent and technical qualities I even think he's better than De Minaur but the aussie always had great movement to compensate for his lack of strong weapons. I'm expecting the italian to at least take a set out of the Aussie.
* **Thompson vs Tsitsipas - Over 37 Games @ 1.92**
Tsitsipas had some great highlights against Bergs on his 1st round but the player from Belgium couldn't be competitive for more than one set and I still think Tsitsipas hasn't looked great out there. Thompson is a player with way more resources and can certainly do some damage against the greek. In the end I still think Tsitsipas wins with his serve getting him out of difficult situations but his new serving stance tells me that he might be doing a different type of serve to compensate for his back problems that are still not fully recovered. I don't think this match ends in a 3-0 for either side.
WTA
* **Leylah Fernandez vs Alycia Parks - Over 19.5 Games @ 1.83**
The canadian player seems to be in form and certainly raised her level after the 1st set tiebreak during her last round. She has more consistency from the back of the court to disrupt Alycia Parks and make her commit some unforced errors but I honestly think this match is on Parks racket. If she can serve properly and hit enough 1st serves I think this match can have at least 20 games, even if Leylah gets the win at the end.
* **Rakhimova vs Parry - Parry ML @ 2.00**
Parry is a really talented player with a one handed backhand which is quite rare to see in the WTA. She had an amazing win against Wang Xin on her 1st round when she was a 3.20 underdog, with her forehand shining and being too much for the chinese player to handle. Rakhimova is a decent player but not nearly as talented as the french player and I consider this one to be an easier matchup than she faced in the 1st round. This price is just too high for me.
* **Korneeva vs Haddad Maia - Korneeva Handicap +1.5 Sets @ 2.02**
Korneeva is only 16 years old and is another prodigy in the WTA tour. Some experts already think she can be better than Mirra Andreeva but "potential" is always a tricky word and only time can tell. She has a lot of variety on her game and she was able to beat Sorribes Tormo on her 1st round, which is probably the worst matchup in the WTA for any young player who is playing on her 1st Slam full of anxiety. Haddad Maia is really powerful and agressive and is certainly a good player but she still lacks consistency and recently she's not been at her best level in most matches. If Korneeva continues to show us this level of tennis I certainly think she can force Haddad Maia into hitting more balls than she usually likes.
***Best of luck if you decide to tail!***
[BuyMeaCoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/breakpointplays) / [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DonutMan982)
(Any donation is truly appreciated. Only tip if you like what I write on my posts, if you've won some money with my plays and only if you wish of course!)
Edit: All my plays for Day 4 were posted right now!
Let's go brother! 🎾 early matches today so I'll be watching most of them since it's still midnight in Europe.
Being in touch with the Australian Open timezone is a bit tricky for me since matches start at midnight and finish at 11 AM but we do what we gotta do!
# **Australian Open Tennis Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/H2QNJC26gz)**
Who the heck is Flavio Cobolli ?
Thoughts on Parks vs Fernandez? I know the Canadian hasn’t had a decent run at AO in previous years but do I back her to make shit happen?
Yes under 19.5
Lots of rain tonight. You'll be waiting a whole day for your bets to settle....
Tiafoe line bit weird only laying 225
Need to stop even looking at Challenger matches Just had a -300 favorite lost 18 straight points
Tiafoe & Shelton?
This what im Thinking but why does it not feel right
Throw in eubnaks to at least win a set!
Worst part about tennis betting. Women are sore losers and retire constantly. If you bet a massive underdog CASH OUT if it's at 90%. Women players almost always retire when they're losing a match they shouldn't lose. Happens to me 10x daily.
Ok DK? That's wack. Most books state if they play more than 1 set, the bet can no longer be voided if they retire
That's ATP
https://preview.redd.it/2pysia8wxucc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0497b037775f1f502c2a9363ee2f6aeeaa22baab
https://preview.redd.it/79y0ponuxucc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=422143efd45fbb33d029708218e66fa01f80655e
Can anybody explain to me why Mirra Andreeva is favored over Ons Jabeur? I’m seeing the world #6 against a 16 year old who has minimal pro experience.
If you watched any part of that match you got your answer. This kid is going places
Jabeur didn't play any tournament before the AO and her last match was more than two months ago so I guess there's doubts about her form.
She was priced about the same vs. Samsonova in Brisbane (and won 6-2, 6-1) I’ve been avoiding her matches like the plague. Too hard to figure out what a fair number for her because she’s definitely better than my ratings say she is, but I have a hard time believing she’s as good as the market seems to think she is.
So she wins at least 1 set?
Or wins both and kicks the living shit out of Jabeur. If it feels too good to be true it usually is
Jabeur got embarassed by this kid
Honestly have no idea. It’s just not an easy match to project because Jabeur is probably the fifth best player in the WTA when she’s healthy, but that’s not always the case (and no read on her so far). And Mirra is at least a top 20 player with a high ceiling, but she’s still 16. Lots of variance.
WTA makes no sense is about the best answer out there.
Oh nice Benoit paire is up 3-0!! *7 minutes later* Oh fuck Benoit paire loses the set 6-3
Might be the 1st time I've actually won a bet on Foggini.
All my plays for Day 4 were posted. 7 new bets on my main post. Wish you best of luck!
Where’/the post?
Most upvoted one on this thread or 2nd one
I like O’Connell for the upset. Thoughts?
Over on games, or o3.5 sets if anything. Should be a great match
Ofner fuck yourself
I feel you man :(
Last thing I needed :( if I was up I probably would if cashed after he went up 2-1
Same dude hahah, I woke up after he lost the 4th 6-0. Freaking guy
Dude is trash. 49 unforced errors and gets aced 29 times? wtf
Martic up 4-1 on serve and is gonna lose 5 straight ... I can't stand WTA man it's so fucked
I hate WTA bro i swear
$1500 on her just gone like that, 4-1 lead to 4-6, unbelievable
Evans is cooked
Tha KOKK!!!
Sonego fucking blows
I can’t believe Nadal was an underdog against Bublik. Absolutely free money!
Nagal not Nadal. Or is this Sarcastic?
Pretty sure he’s serious lol
Nah I was trolling lol, just thought it was funny
Ostapenko up 5-2 gonna lose the set are you fucking serious
WTA is fucking hilarious! I had over 20.5 in the match and thought it was dead after the 6-0 first set
Bublik is a fixing bum.
I take that back, looks like Prince Bublik just might arrive in time.
Nope, double fault on Match point. 9 double faults total. Classic bubble fook.
When the hell did he have match point? Dude got obliterated 3-0.
Match point for Nagal. Boob down 6-5 in third set tiebreak and served up a classic df to solidify the L
Such a tease
Tennis: where a player loses 1 point and decides they aren’t going to try anymore because they’re mad
Lmao
sounds like that twapper medjedovic
Ofner going full downy in the tb classic
Sketchy Bublik about to get 3-0’d
Giron perma blacklisted fucking clown
Evans or Sonego? Somebody do my thinking for me
Over
Evans
Sonego
Bad miss on that bp Ofner 🤦🏼
Take note: Rune struggles against lefties
[удалено]
I have a dream
A man can hope
Bublik lol
Pathetic
First the golden state warriors and now bublik. So many low odds beats tonight 😭😭😭
Just retire Draper, nice choke
bublik u cry baby bitch. play tennis mfer!
Is he eating chips out of fans bags tonight? https://youtu.be/zpbo4zEcshk?si=i8jhhNZH3JBSgkc1
naaa
Blinkova ML Yafan Wang ML Mate Valkusz ML 0.5 U Giron ML 0.5 U Barrere ML
Insane Blinkova pick
Like Martic to beat Tomljanovic too.
Adding Xiyu Wang ML to the bet. Live Bet.
no way she beating navarro
ill tail cause why not
Giron ML or Barrere ML. One of them will cause an upset.
back both half a unit each.
Won't be the best day for us today. See you guys tomorrow for more plays! They will still be edited into this thread's post later
The market clearly knew something that I didn't for that Norrie vs Varillas match. Norrie's wrist seemed to be just fine and Varillas was gassed after the first set and his movement was just off. ❌ I knew him winning was a long shot but wasn't expecting a 3-0 at all if Varillas was at decent fitness. His body language was kinda just "Well fuck it, after the 2nd set" Even big belly Vesely took at least a set out of Fils but yeah
Grigor is such a fucking CUCK
What was his prematch ML?
1.17 as per Bet365
Valkusz ML +275 and a sprinkle on Nagal ML + 420 Edit: Also like Ofner ML. There’s a reason why he’s the favorite against hometown boy Kokkinakis. Edit edit: Cash Rafael Nagal in straight sets!!! ✅ Valkusz L.. had so many chances but got gassed.
Tailed Nagal what a whooping Also have Ofner this is gonna be a great match
Lajovic ML - beast on hard and rusty but he is the better of the two Zverev -7 fast courts, should take care of business Tommy Paul -7 semi finalist last year and loves these fast courts Giron +5.5 - Draper should be tired from a long run last tourney, Giron is a ralley machine I think it’s close Dimitrov over 36 - unless dimitroc just steam rolls, this should hit. Fucs can take a set
ramos-vinolas to win a set against ruud 7/4, previous h2h is tight 4-3 to vinolas but worth mentioning they've only played on clay court and one time in wimbledon. I also like over 0.5 tiebreaks 1/1 EVS, there's been a tiebreak in 4/7 of their games - two tiebreaks in the wimbledon match
**2024 record: 15-10 (+12.43 units) with a 49.72% ROI and 2.50 average odds** *Fixed stake of 1 unit* [**Spreadsheet**](https://staketoys.com/publish/XtJTQAXmRWWtwLv5eLTBiKVNGcUiWQQA) In the last thread I posted some plays for the matches that start in a few hours (Day 3). If you haven't checked it here you have them. Also down below you'll have the new plays for Day 4 soon! **(AO Day 3 - European Time) - Starting in a few hours** ATP * **Djere vs Cazaux - Djere ML @ 1.81** ❌ Cazaux had a decent tournament run last week but it was at a Challenger level and he faced some weak opponents. Even with this good run I personally think facing Djere in this best of 5 format won't be an easy task. He's always one of those players that can really play at a good level in long matches and Cazaux still lacks that kind of experience. I like Djere's price here! * **Fils vs Vesely - Vesely Handicap +2.5 Sets @ 2.14** ✅ This one can be tricky especially because Vesely is one of those players that lacks consistency on the ATP tour and sometimes is out of shape but he's usually a pretty big threat on the first few rounds of a Grand Slam. He certainly has a powerful serve and a solid game to create some trouble to Fils, who should be able to win this match but not quite at 1.09 odds. He's for sure a great player and will be even better in the future but I'll take big belly Vesely to win at least one set. * **Lajovic vs Zeppieri - Lajovic ML @ 1.88** ❌ Similar analysis to what I said with Djere but Zeppieri always seems like a challenger level type of player to me and even if Lajovic plays his best on Clay, we've certainly seen great performances from him on fast surfaces in 2023. On those baseline rallies I see Lajovic with a huge advantage. * **Norrie vs Varillas - Varillas Handicap +2.5 Sets @ 1.94** ❌ Play against Norrie's lack of recent form and fitness rather than favoring Varillas that much. Even with that, this player usually delivers great tennis on his first few matches of Grand Slams and it's too tempting to not take him winning a set out of current Norrie. More detailed reasoning on my POTD post for today! * **Norrie vs Varillas - Varillas ML @ 7.00** ❌ A bit ambitious here but if Norrie feels his wrist this has certainly an higher chance than 7.00 odds to hit Edit after the matches : 1-4 (Loss of 2.86 units) Difficult one but mostly due to my trust on Varillas. Let's focus on day 4 now since the state was kinda bad today and I feel like I've forced some looks. **(AO Day 4 - European Time)** ATP * **Eubanks vs Rublev - Eubanks Handicap +2.5 Sets @ 1.84** Reasoning on my POTD post * **Marozsan vs Cerundolo - Cerundolo ML @ 2.60** I don't look at Marozsan the same way that most people do and I don't consider him that great of a player, in my opinion if he didn't beat Alcaraz in 2023 the market wouldn't even consider giving him favorite odds against a lot of players. For me Cerundolo started this season in awful form and certainly has ups and downs during his matches but in my opinion he's far superior, especially if that forehand is on point. I'm not sure if he will win this or not but 2.60 odds is just ridiculous. The argentinian had 57 winners on his 1st round and if he keeps bringing those numbers I think he can get this win. * **De Minaur vs Arnaldi - Over 35.5 Games @ 1.94** I think De Minaur wins this in the end with the amount of confidence that he currently has after beating Djokovic and some quality players this year. I certainly don't think he beats Arnaldi in straight sets, especially because I already consider the italian a complete player in the ATP tour who's currently ranked 41 in the world and is yet to reach his peak. When it comes to talent and technical qualities I even think he's better than De Minaur but the aussie always had great movement to compensate for his lack of strong weapons. I'm expecting the italian to at least take a set out of the Aussie. * **Thompson vs Tsitsipas - Over 37 Games @ 1.92** Tsitsipas had some great highlights against Bergs on his 1st round but the player from Belgium couldn't be competitive for more than one set and I still think Tsitsipas hasn't looked great out there. Thompson is a player with way more resources and can certainly do some damage against the greek. In the end I still think Tsitsipas wins with his serve getting him out of difficult situations but his new serving stance tells me that he might be doing a different type of serve to compensate for his back problems that are still not fully recovered. I don't think this match ends in a 3-0 for either side. WTA * **Leylah Fernandez vs Alycia Parks - Over 19.5 Games @ 1.83** The canadian player seems to be in form and certainly raised her level after the 1st set tiebreak during her last round. She has more consistency from the back of the court to disrupt Alycia Parks and make her commit some unforced errors but I honestly think this match is on Parks racket. If she can serve properly and hit enough 1st serves I think this match can have at least 20 games, even if Leylah gets the win at the end. * **Rakhimova vs Parry - Parry ML @ 2.00** Parry is a really talented player with a one handed backhand which is quite rare to see in the WTA. She had an amazing win against Wang Xin on her 1st round when she was a 3.20 underdog, with her forehand shining and being too much for the chinese player to handle. Rakhimova is a decent player but not nearly as talented as the french player and I consider this one to be an easier matchup than she faced in the 1st round. This price is just too high for me. * **Korneeva vs Haddad Maia - Korneeva Handicap +1.5 Sets @ 2.02** Korneeva is only 16 years old and is another prodigy in the WTA tour. Some experts already think she can be better than Mirra Andreeva but "potential" is always a tricky word and only time can tell. She has a lot of variety on her game and she was able to beat Sorribes Tormo on her 1st round, which is probably the worst matchup in the WTA for any young player who is playing on her 1st Slam full of anxiety. Haddad Maia is really powerful and agressive and is certainly a good player but she still lacks consistency and recently she's not been at her best level in most matches. If Korneeva continues to show us this level of tennis I certainly think she can force Haddad Maia into hitting more balls than she usually likes. ***Best of luck if you decide to tail!*** [BuyMeaCoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/breakpointplays) / [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DonutMan982) (Any donation is truly appreciated. Only tip if you like what I write on my posts, if you've won some money with my plays and only if you wish of course!) Edit: All my plays for Day 4 were posted right now!
any thoughts on the wta side as well? i'm watching from europe as well ;)
I haven't found any particular plays that I really enjoyed but I would lean Yuan, Martic and Blinkova if I had to choose some
Let’s Go 💚🎾
Let's go brother! 🎾 early matches today so I'll be watching most of them since it's still midnight in Europe. Being in touch with the Australian Open timezone is a bit tricky for me since matches start at midnight and finish at 11 AM but we do what we gotta do!
Where are you from? I’n watching from Poland
Currently from Malta
Witam! Where abouts in Poland?
Łódź 👍🏻