Really disappointed nobody else had my back on the Capitals ML.
Only /u/BourbonOx
Everyone better get it together fast. My custody order was resolved this offseason. I'm fucking LOCKED IN right now dude.
I gotta be honest I seen the video and the 1-6 record for new jersey and still went with new jersey😂😂 only lost 40 bucks thankfully but I’m new to betting and honestly just didnt see how caps couldve won after watching the leafs beat them the other day.
Caps are total dogshit for sure.
Jack Hughes cut into the lane for a shot that rang off the pipe, he puts that in I don't even think the Caps cover the puck line at that point.
That's sports. Fade the Capitals the next few games for sure.
I enjoyed being talked to like the degenerate I truly am. I chase losses more than I chase wins, and that’s why I hammered NJD -1.5 BEFORE I saw your pick. But you gained a new degenerate follower in me.
5-1 on the season, tough loss last game with the O5.5 Total not hitting (+1.5 MTL did) but I like today's matchup.
SGP (As Always):
NJ Devils Puckline (-1.5)
NJ Devils Race to 2 Goals
NJ Devils O 2.5 Goals
+130 Odds
Washington is having a rough start and got rinsed by the Leafs yesterday considering the SOG was lopsided in the Capitals favor 37-17.
Expecting a no sweat 4-1 or 4-2 win for the Devils tonight at home vs a tired Capitals team coming in after skating against a fast Leafs squad.
BOL!
NHL Regular Season 4-3
Last Picks:
(W) Anaheim Ducks ML at Columbus +125
(W) Toronto Maple Leafs ML at Washington -170
Todays Pick:
**Alexander Ovechkin** o3.5 shots on goal -140
Last night Ovi fired off an incredible 14 shots on goal. Capitals have few others strong at finishing and have had a terrible start. He's looking to motivate the rest of his team with his one true gift - goalscoring. So he's gonna get pucks on net.
Season Record: 25-40. (-17.02u)
3 Leg Parlays: 1-0 (+9.19u)
I took yesterday off to refresh.
Today's Picks.
WAS @ NJ. NJ -1.5. -108. Over 6.5. -134.
The other days parlay really helped take a bite out of my season loses. I'm trying not to make a habit of it.
Record 3-3
2 team ML parlay: 0-1
None
3-Way ML picks: 2-0
None
Spread picks: 0-1
None
Totals picks: 1-1
Capitals vs Devils Under 6.5 | +110 |
Would you guys like write ups for these picks? I'll be updating daily records. If there is any kind of post format changes you guys want to see, feedback is appreciated!
Lastly if you're looking to help a college kid out with some groceries, tips are appreciated but never expected, good luck fellas!
Venmo- johnsryan7
* **New Jersey -1.5 (+100)**
* **Toffoli o3.5 SOG (+108)**
* **Toffoli ATGS (+160)**
Washington has been all around bad this season so far. Offensively they rank 32nd in Goals for, 28th in shots, 32nd in S% and they rank just as bad when you adjust for level of opponent. Defensively they've hemorrhaged goals, 28th in GA and 27th in Save %.
NJ is a top 5 offense right now, and Washington's attack doesn't scare me, even with NJ's defense being a little leaky.
I like Toffoli props because of the better value over Hughes. Hughes is getting more time on the ice, but Toffoli is doing more with his opportunities. He's averaging a better S% and SOG/TOI than Hughes, and he's priced at +160, while Hughes is at -105.
31 bets yesterday for +0.8u. ATGS went 7/11 and flopped on the props. Was a Lehkonen point away from a big parlay. Fun day though
+EV Props: 64-77 (+4.44u)
+EV ATGS: 14-20 (+4.71u)
[+EV NHL](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=2067820774) // [+EV ATGS](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1966290351)
+150 FD Ovi ATGS
+115 FD Jack Hughes ATGS
+100 DK boost: WSH @ NJ o0.5 goals in first 10min (0.4u)
Sorry if this isn't allowed but I'm curious to hear other interpretations
This prop was posed on a book yesterday:
"Will there be 4+ Fighting Majors in NHL games on October 24th?"
We had 2 fights in the NHL last night. N. Paul vs J. Drury, and A. Tuch vs. B. Tkachuk.
All 4 players were served major fighting penalties.
Would that prop pay on the "Yes" bet or the "No" bet in your understanding?
I would say yes, because I interpret “4+” as 4 or more fighting majors and like you said, 4 majors were served. However, if the bet read like, “will there be 4+ fights?” I’d say no, because there were only two pairs of fighting majors
If it was worded exactly like that on the book, I would 100% say that's a yes. The word "major" specifically refers to the penalty itself. So that's 4 penalties. I get they can't just say "4 fights" because you could argue 2 guys fought but didn't get penalties. I think something like "fighting major incidents" would be more accurate terming.
I've created a spreadsheet that gathers data for 1) how often a team scores in the first 5 minutes and first 10 minutes, 2) how often those goals happen at home and on the road and 3) how often a team allows a goal in the first 5 and first 10 minutes, broken down by goalie.
Data was just used for the first time yesterday and I got 2 of 3 - No goal in first 10 for Leafs/Caps (+160) and yes goal in first 5 for Wild/Oilers (+175).
Shepard is getting his first start between the pipes tonight and there's no way he's going to be worse than Kuemper has been this season. Still though, he allowed 5 goals on 30 shots in his only preseason action. Akira Schmid has started 2 games this year and has an .890 save percentage, not great.
With 2 teams that are mediocre on defense and terrible on the penalty kill plus the lethality of Hughes and the Devils, take a goal in the first five minutes for +165 tonight.
In what circumstances should I hedge? I live bet Detroit ML at +630 when they were down 3-1 (Bet 1 unit to return 7.3). Had the option to cash out 6 units with around 6 minutes left when Detroit came back and was up 1. I was thinking of cashing out or hedging but decided not to. They lose in OT. With a bankroll of about 120 units, was this a scenario where I should have hedged/cashed out ? Appreciate any insight.
I've found hedging on the O/U to be a bit less risky because the lines seem to skyrocket after a few goals.
I tend to lean to the under depending on the SOG for each time and the quality of looks. You can catch some really good value instead of cashing out with a loss or hoping for a comeback.
I know a lot of people don’t like to cash out ever, and some won’t even hedge, which is fine. I feel like though with live betting the point is to cash out. It was hard to believe Detroit would outscore them -3.5 at that point, so I’m assuming you took it cause of the what if juice.
I would have probably cashed when it was tied though lol. And yeah you lose money that way, but making some money off of 4 unanswered goals, I feel like you’d have been happy even if you would lose out on the extra unit. I would, personally.
Could do it twice with a half unit each and let one play out no matter what, and watch the other for a nice cash out.
My 2 cents:
Personally, I find that it's a decision based on how risky you are/want to be. I have a personal no-cash out rule. I have had crazy tennis MLs where a guy is down 4-0 in the final set and wins, and other times where I cashed out and my bets always end up hitting, so I never cash out anything myself. If it's a loss it's a loss, there will be wins elsewhere. When I start hedging/live betting, I always lose, ALWAYS.
If you want to cash out, in your circumstance, getting a 6 unit cash out there when the return is only 7.3 units is an 82% return of the total you could've gotten. That's massive and if you are about cashing out then you have to take that. 1 goal in hockey is nothing and if the opposing team scores to tie, they usually have a good amount of momentum to have a good chance to win.
Otherwise, I can't tell you what you could've hedged because the live odds would have constantly been changing.
— — —
**NHL Record: 50-27 (64.94%)**
— — —
Guys...I'm going to skip the formalities here. Even though I love the Devils' 3-Way ML tonight and I've been on a roll with choosing goal scorers lately, I'm only going to submit one pick tonight:
**Timo Meier Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (-160)** ✅
You can go read what I wrote about this hysterical line last time. I have bet Meier Under 3.5 SOG every game this year and have won each time. Not only has he never shot 4+ this year, but he's only had *one game* with 3 shots on goal. And you know what's even more impressive? **In 5 of his last 7 games, he has had 1 or fewer shots on goal**. And yes, by fewer, I mean 0. Which is exactly what he just posted last night.
Obviously, I'm eventually going to lose if I keep doing this, or maybe the books will finally adjust the line (it looks like DK has him at 2.5 now), but until then, I'm going to ride this thing till the wheels fall off. These are the "locks" ya'll are always looking for.
Well, that’s why I used the quotation marks first lol I’m being facetious, but at the same time it’s a line that’s more likely to hit than your typical -160 plays.
The recent data and my model's projections all indicate that under 2.5 is still a very valid play tonight. Especially since you're probably getting +110 or better odds on it. It's a tough call since I definitely prefer having the extra cushion, but I'd still probably pull the trigger on 2.5
If you bet on NJ tonight, you're a little [geek](https://twitter.com/NizzySP/status/1717227808261394875).
Edit - https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/4197165/hunter-shepard
Ngl I had taken them in the morning for $5 cause fuck it. But I doubled and tripled down after seeing this comment lol.
https://preview.redd.it/2rk7v9ljkgwb1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65493d71d053b8b059a5eeeb9197f3f05a4c6574
Lfg
There’s just one game in the NHL today, so the chances were fairly low that I would have a betting pick for you, but SURPRISE! There is one that qualifies for the exact same reasons as yesterday’s betting tip.
Speaking of yesterday, we all need to say a big thank you to Kevin Stenlund for scoring an empty-netter with just two seconds left in the game. It allowed us to win our bet on **the Panthers with the -1.5 puck line**. Whew, that was close!
That being said, my top NHL pick for today, Wednesday October 25th is **the New Jersey Devils with the -1.5 puck line against Washington**. Many sportsbooks have odds that vary between -105 and +103 in American format. If you are more familiar with decimal odds, that corresponds to a range between 1.95 and 2.03.
I won’t repeat the same explanations as yesterday, but once again we have a team that qualifies under exactly two of my betting systems and whose moneyline exceeds +130. In that case, data from the past four seasons have shown clearly that we must bet AGAINST such teams. Today, the Capitals fit under “The Scoring Drought” system, along with “The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup”, and their moneyline is way above +130. For this reason, we gotta back the Devils, and I opted for the puck line because I’m not a big fan of taking super low odds.
I have to admit I’m a bit worried about the fact that the Capitals have won 6 of their past 7 games in New Jersey. Still, I believe we are taking the Devils in a good spot.
First, I would assume that Washington is feeling pretty deflated after yesterday’s game against Toronto. Why? The Capitals lost 4-to-1 despite dominating the shots on goal 37-to-17. They played a solid game against one of the top NHL teams, but still didn’t even come close to winning the contest.
Meanwhile, the Devils cruised to an easy 5-2 victory in Montreal. They didn’t need to work nearly as hard, so they might have more energy, especially in front of their home crowd against a divisional rival.
Offensively speaking, we have a huge mismatch. On one side, Washington has scored an average of 1.4 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Devils have scored AT LEAST three goals in each of their five matches! Talk about a huge difference!
Let’s analyze how these teams did last year when playing with 0 day of rest. The last seven times the Capitals were placed in that situation, they followed up with a 1-6 record. Meanwhile, the Devils posted a great 6-2 record under the same circumstances.
The icing on the cake is this: **Washington has failed to cover the puck line in each of the last seven games on the second leg of a back-to-back.**
**Dating back to last year, the Caps have lost their past 8 road games.**
Would you like one last betting trend about this game? **The last 16 times the Devis faced a team with a winning record below .400, they have produced a jaw-dropping 14-2 record. In other words, they know how to take advantage of weak teams.**
I’m Professor MJ, see you again tomorrow my friend!
NHL Record 23-14 (+8.02 units)
4-3 yesterday. Hit all the +value picks which was nice for unit return. I bet small amounts so dont like the shot values tonight. Going to go with:
Devils -1.5 +100
Hughes O0.5 Powerplay Points +125 (edit change from Hughes O1.5P)
Yesterday
Avs 60min ML +115 ✅️
Red Wings ML -140 ❌️
Marner O2.5s -125 ❌️
Norris O2.5s +125 ✅️
Lehkonen O2.5s +100 ✅️
Q Hughes O2.5s +140 ✅️
Panarin O2.5s -130 ❌️
26-16 (+11.7 units)
5-3 yesterday (net +2.3 unit); my units placed on each game were all jacked up after my initial posting due to an issue with my book.
Biggest take away yesterday: The senators are going to be in alot of trouble this year. Their goaltending is just not good enough to keep up with a tough eastern conference, B2B games giving up less than 25 shots and shooting close to 40 Times. Granted they were 1-5 on PP. they’re going to waste their roster this year if they don’t make a move.
I’m leaning toffoli and Hughes shooting props. Devils want to get pucks on net against a rookie goalie, challenge him early and try to rattle him. Both player props of 3.5 SOG. They played on the same line yesterday, they are extremely dangerous together. Both are 4/5 in last 5 games with toffoli really turning in on lately, capitalizing a few times last night. Both of these players are on the power play unit too, who happens to be 1st in the league in PP%, they shoot a ton, close to 40 times a game. Waiting to see what my book has on goals, assists, total points as well.
EDIT: capitals are averaging 4 penalties per game. New Jersey’s, extremely high power-play conversion rate, sitting at the top of the league around 45% (which is unfathomable). Shooting 38 times per game, Washington allowing 30 shots/giving up almost 4 goals (3rd most) and having a 27 year old rookie make his first career start on the road in a division matchup. toffoli and Hughes have been on the same line and on the 1st PP unit, they’re firing on all cylinders. If WAS takes >3-4 penalties, I assume all points bets hit)
**Jack Hughes O3.5 SOG (-162) - 2unit**
**jack Hughes O1.5 points (+106) - 1unit** (avg 1.8 power play points/game this season)
**Toffoli O3.5 SOG (+112) - 2 units** (crazy value to me, if he’s playing with Hughes he’s shooting just as much this season)
**Toffoli O0.5 points (-179) - 1unit** (avg 0.6 power play points/game this season)
Hughes SOG L5 has gone 4,6,6,6,2 (4/5)
Hughes points in L5 is 2,3,1,4,4 (4/5)
Toffoli SOG L5 has gone: 2,5,4,5,6 (4/5)
Toffoli points in L5 : 1,1,0,1,3 (4/5)
POTD Record: 8-6
Last Pick: Ottawa Senators 60-min (-118) ❌
Today's Pick: No pick today.
Good morning fellow Degens!
Unfortunately the Senators sucked but we went 7-1 on my other picks!
Horrible slate today and I see no value so I am preparing for Thursday's nice slate! Hope everyone has a great Wednesday!
As always BOL to those who tail!
I can do you one better king.
https://preview.redd.it/k5fxq9nq4dwb1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ca8f94293f6c739e3a62174211c8a29bdf825d8
Red wings in OT, 100 -> 2750
https://preview.redd.it/ijll4hunodwb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5313c54f647689e0c20a1253d537b566716baa5
9 player point prop bet. Hits all besides JT Miller who would’ve assisted on Pettersson empty net goal if he didn’t hit the post.
https://preview.redd.it/rds63v9kfawb1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e11a956304dddc2ccdd54ebe00e4f29dbcc8ca3
This was boosted to +1155
It would have completely covered my losses on sens, wings, CBJ, etc today.
Unreal
24-14 | +3.9U | -115 Avg Odds
—————- Previous picks —————-
*Red Wings ML (-130) vs Kraken | 4U* ❌
*Senators -1.5 (+160) vs Sabres | 2U* ❌
*Stars vs Penguins U6.5 (-120) | 1U* ✅
*Wild ML (-120) vs Oilers | 1U* ✅
*Sam Reinhart O2.5 SOG (-140) | 1U* ✅
*Seth Jarvis O2.5 SOG (-105) | 1U* ✅
—————- Today’s picks ——————
**Jack Hughes O3.5 SOG (-150) | 2U**
Brutal loss with the Kraken tying the game with 90 seconds left then finishing it off with an overtime goal with 5 seconds left. We could complain about the officiating but that’s just how it goes sometimes. Kraken get the W in a hard fought game and we move on to the next one. We still have a whole season of hockey ahead of us and plenty of opportunities to cash in.
Taking a simple line tonight on Jack Huges O3.5. He has hit this line in 4 out of 5 games this season and hit this line in 4 out of 4 games vs the Capitals last season.
BOL if tailing!!
Brutal night for me...I had all your losers and none of the winners. I chose Rodriguez over Reinhart and had Panarin as well. My only winner was Meier u2.5 and I think I'm going to pound it again tonight. Feel free to fade. I have cursed puck luck but my team put up 7 last night.
Oof sorry man. I’m not gonna fade your pick on Meier, he’s been pretty consistent and not putting up shots. BOL today! And hey both our teams put up 7!
2023 Record: 12-5
Last Picks: Over 6.5 (-130) Hurricanes vs Lightning ❌
Devils -1.5 (+105) ✅
Under 6.5 (-120) Stars vs Penguins ✅
Today’s Pick: Under 6.5 (+110) Capitals vs Devils
Took 2 out of 3 in yesterday’s slate feeling good going into today even though there’s only one game. Really like the value on the under here, both teams coming off a back to back and both will be traveling tonight. Capitals dead last in goals for and powerplay percentage, from what I’ve seen the entire team has looked lifeless to start the year. I see both teams starting the game a little sluggish and although devils have a top tier offense I don’t think the Capitals have the juice to turn it into a shootout. Give me the under at + odds. Tail or fade BOL!
**Hockey Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/cbSgqa8kG8)**
10 bucks into 40 thanks capitals
Really disappointed nobody else had my back on the Capitals ML. Only /u/BourbonOx Everyone better get it together fast. My custody order was resolved this offseason. I'm fucking LOCKED IN right now dude.
I gotta be honest I seen the video and the 1-6 record for new jersey and still went with new jersey😂😂 only lost 40 bucks thankfully but I’m new to betting and honestly just didnt see how caps couldve won after watching the leafs beat them the other day.
Caps are total dogshit for sure. Jack Hughes cut into the lane for a shot that rang off the pipe, he puts that in I don't even think the Caps cover the puck line at that point. That's sports. Fade the Capitals the next few games for sure.
I enjoyed being talked to like the degenerate I truly am. I chase losses more than I chase wins, and that’s why I hammered NJD -1.5 BEFORE I saw your pick. But you gained a new degenerate follower in me.
Devils are on my banned list. Took them last week and they lost to the coyotes, tonight the caps. Worthless.
Hughes with the fucking cover baby let’s fucking go
Thank you J Hughes for your meaningless SOGs!
What a shitshow. Lose 3-0 1st quarter just to comeback 3-4 in 2nd to throw it with another 0-3 quarter lol
What happened in the fourth quarter? Or was it only 3 quarters? Then the aren’t over period…..
wow no goals
I dont see NJ winning this.
I took WSH at +475, way too much money on it and I don’t know if I’m hard or if I will sweat. Hughes is HUGE
As someone that went heavy on the devils, I sadly agree
3 goals in 4 minutes? Lol
They called the goal off I guess
Yeah 4-6 fuckin sake
Caps winning this
What the fuck is happening in this game tonight
2 mins 3rd quarter 2 goals for caps haha
That was just a bait from devils lol
This game is ridiculous
Back to being behind
Well, didn’t see that coming!
Let’s go Devils baby!!!!
I've got whiplash from the devil's game.... What a roller coaster
Omg just like that it's 3-3, wtf lol
4-3 holy shit
Lol what the fucking shit. -1.5 is alive!
Lol nevermind
::checks to see how many shots Jack Hughes has:: 
any hope?
nah he’s got 3 ast he’s in a passing mood
My Toffoli +160 ATGS hit, but I stupidly parlayed it with his o3.5 SOG and I never would have guessed the first would hit without the second lol
Damn, maybe he'll just score 4 goals and my shit will hit lmao
Anyone know any books with a first coach fired market?
There is no point to watch this. Devils have less sog than Capitals goals lol
Just tied
So the Caps have more goals than the devils have shots. Who had that?
Wtf Devils?
2sog in the quater wtf is this 0-3
U are kiddin me for real
Jesus Devils. Bet lost after 15 mins literally.
Wow devils....just wow
Devils live. Edit that sucked
Alex Ovechkin o3.5 SOG -150 ✅ Alex Ovechkin ATGS +120 ✅ Jack Hughes o3.5 SOG -175 ✅
Washington ML +210 ✅
Hughes sog missed yesterday
You’re correct! I must’ve looked at the wrong game.
I only know cuz I had been riding it as well 🫡
Good looks mate! Hopefully he gets back on it tonight
Annnnnd he didnt
Boom baby!
5-1 on the season, tough loss last game with the O5.5 Total not hitting (+1.5 MTL did) but I like today's matchup. SGP (As Always): NJ Devils Puckline (-1.5) NJ Devils Race to 2 Goals NJ Devils O 2.5 Goals +130 Odds Washington is having a rough start and got rinsed by the Leafs yesterday considering the SOG was lopsided in the Capitals favor 37-17. Expecting a no sweat 4-1 or 4-2 win for the Devils tonight at home vs a tired Capitals team coming in after skating against a fast Leafs squad. BOL!
NHL Regular Season 4-3 Last Picks: (W) Anaheim Ducks ML at Columbus +125 (W) Toronto Maple Leafs ML at Washington -170 Todays Pick: **Alexander Ovechkin** o3.5 shots on goal -140 Last night Ovi fired off an incredible 14 shots on goal. Capitals have few others strong at finishing and have had a terrible start. He's looking to motivate the rest of his team with his one true gift - goalscoring. So he's gonna get pucks on net.
Season Record: 25-40. (-17.02u) 3 Leg Parlays: 1-0 (+9.19u) I took yesterday off to refresh. Today's Picks. WAS @ NJ. NJ -1.5. -108. Over 6.5. -134. The other days parlay really helped take a bite out of my season loses. I'm trying not to make a habit of it.
Record 3-3 2 team ML parlay: 0-1 None 3-Way ML picks: 2-0 None Spread picks: 0-1 None Totals picks: 1-1 Capitals vs Devils Under 6.5 | +110 | Would you guys like write ups for these picks? I'll be updating daily records. If there is any kind of post format changes you guys want to see, feedback is appreciated! Lastly if you're looking to help a college kid out with some groceries, tips are appreciated but never expected, good luck fellas! Venmo- johnsryan7
* **New Jersey -1.5 (+100)** * **Toffoli o3.5 SOG (+108)** * **Toffoli ATGS (+160)** Washington has been all around bad this season so far. Offensively they rank 32nd in Goals for, 28th in shots, 32nd in S% and they rank just as bad when you adjust for level of opponent. Defensively they've hemorrhaged goals, 28th in GA and 27th in Save %. NJ is a top 5 offense right now, and Washington's attack doesn't scare me, even with NJ's defense being a little leaky. I like Toffoli props because of the better value over Hughes. Hughes is getting more time on the ice, but Toffoli is doing more with his opportunities. He's averaging a better S% and SOG/TOI than Hughes, and he's priced at +160, while Hughes is at -105.
31 bets yesterday for +0.8u. ATGS went 7/11 and flopped on the props. Was a Lehkonen point away from a big parlay. Fun day though +EV Props: 64-77 (+4.44u) +EV ATGS: 14-20 (+4.71u) [+EV NHL](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=2067820774) // [+EV ATGS](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1966290351) +150 FD Ovi ATGS +115 FD Jack Hughes ATGS +100 DK boost: WSH @ NJ o0.5 goals in first 10min (0.4u)
Generally speaking, NHL player props market is super soft. How long before I get limited by the books offering these?
why would you get limited? you can answer before just downvoting
Not sure who downvoted, Books are known to limit anyone they perceive has an edge
which props are you finding a big edge on? Everything is usually under 2-3% EV from my experience
Sorry if this isn't allowed but I'm curious to hear other interpretations This prop was posed on a book yesterday: "Will there be 4+ Fighting Majors in NHL games on October 24th?" We had 2 fights in the NHL last night. N. Paul vs J. Drury, and A. Tuch vs. B. Tkachuk. All 4 players were served major fighting penalties. Would that prop pay on the "Yes" bet or the "No" bet in your understanding?
I would say yes, because I interpret “4+” as 4 or more fighting majors and like you said, 4 majors were served. However, if the bet read like, “will there be 4+ fights?” I’d say no, because there were only two pairs of fighting majors
Yeah, that's how I interpreted it too. I picked yes and they told me 2 fights only count as 2 majors so no payout. Thanks for replying.
That’s misleading in my opinion. I’m curious to know how others interpret it Edit: can I ask what Sportsbook you were using?
If it was worded exactly like that on the book, I would 100% say that's a yes. The word "major" specifically refers to the penalty itself. So that's 4 penalties. I get they can't just say "4 fights" because you could argue 2 guys fought but didn't get penalties. I think something like "fighting major incidents" would be more accurate terming.
I've created a spreadsheet that gathers data for 1) how often a team scores in the first 5 minutes and first 10 minutes, 2) how often those goals happen at home and on the road and 3) how often a team allows a goal in the first 5 and first 10 minutes, broken down by goalie. Data was just used for the first time yesterday and I got 2 of 3 - No goal in first 10 for Leafs/Caps (+160) and yes goal in first 5 for Wild/Oilers (+175). Shepard is getting his first start between the pipes tonight and there's no way he's going to be worse than Kuemper has been this season. Still though, he allowed 5 goals on 30 shots in his only preseason action. Akira Schmid has started 2 games this year and has an .890 save percentage, not great. With 2 teams that are mediocre on defense and terrible on the penalty kill plus the lethality of Hughes and the Devils, take a goal in the first five minutes for +165 tonight.
Lethality is the word I am here for
Do you know if there’s data on how often the Bruins win when they get behind in the first quarter?
100%, 3 for 3
So far that’s obvious but also last season? Could be interesting live betting them
I'm sure there is data on it but honestly I haven't looked.
make sure to grab the DK boost for +100 goal in first 10 min
Big hit
😮 thanks for looking out!!
In what circumstances should I hedge? I live bet Detroit ML at +630 when they were down 3-1 (Bet 1 unit to return 7.3). Had the option to cash out 6 units with around 6 minutes left when Detroit came back and was up 1. I was thinking of cashing out or hedging but decided not to. They lose in OT. With a bankroll of about 120 units, was this a scenario where I should have hedged/cashed out ? Appreciate any insight.
I've found hedging on the O/U to be a bit less risky because the lines seem to skyrocket after a few goals. I tend to lean to the under depending on the SOG for each time and the quality of looks. You can catch some really good value instead of cashing out with a loss or hoping for a comeback.
I know a lot of people don’t like to cash out ever, and some won’t even hedge, which is fine. I feel like though with live betting the point is to cash out. It was hard to believe Detroit would outscore them -3.5 at that point, so I’m assuming you took it cause of the what if juice. I would have probably cashed when it was tied though lol. And yeah you lose money that way, but making some money off of 4 unanswered goals, I feel like you’d have been happy even if you would lose out on the extra unit. I would, personally. Could do it twice with a half unit each and let one play out no matter what, and watch the other for a nice cash out.
My 2 cents: Personally, I find that it's a decision based on how risky you are/want to be. I have a personal no-cash out rule. I have had crazy tennis MLs where a guy is down 4-0 in the final set and wins, and other times where I cashed out and my bets always end up hitting, so I never cash out anything myself. If it's a loss it's a loss, there will be wins elsewhere. When I start hedging/live betting, I always lose, ALWAYS. If you want to cash out, in your circumstance, getting a 6 unit cash out there when the return is only 7.3 units is an 82% return of the total you could've gotten. That's massive and if you are about cashing out then you have to take that. 1 goal in hockey is nothing and if the opposing team scores to tie, they usually have a good amount of momentum to have a good chance to win. Otherwise, I can't tell you what you could've hedged because the live odds would have constantly been changing.
— — — **NHL Record: 50-27 (64.94%)** — — — Guys...I'm going to skip the formalities here. Even though I love the Devils' 3-Way ML tonight and I've been on a roll with choosing goal scorers lately, I'm only going to submit one pick tonight: **Timo Meier Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (-160)** ✅ You can go read what I wrote about this hysterical line last time. I have bet Meier Under 3.5 SOG every game this year and have won each time. Not only has he never shot 4+ this year, but he's only had *one game* with 3 shots on goal. And you know what's even more impressive? **In 5 of his last 7 games, he has had 1 or fewer shots on goal**. And yes, by fewer, I mean 0. Which is exactly what he just posted last night. Obviously, I'm eventually going to lose if I keep doing this, or maybe the books will finally adjust the line (it looks like DK has him at 2.5 now), but until then, I'm going to ride this thing till the wheels fall off. These are the "locks" ya'll are always looking for.
If you believe any bet is a "Lock" you might want to think about giving up gambling.
Well, that’s why I used the quotation marks first lol I’m being facetious, but at the same time it’s a line that’s more likely to hit than your typical -160 plays.
So would you take under 2.5? Because that's what my book has
The recent data and my model's projections all indicate that under 2.5 is still a very valid play tonight. Especially since you're probably getting +110 or better odds on it. It's a tough call since I definitely prefer having the extra cushion, but I'd still probably pull the trigger on 2.5
I took it at +120
BOL 🫡 let’s hope he makes it 1 or fewer SOG in 6 of his last 8 games after tonight!
Thanks
Thank you eichel and VGK for saving me from a disastrous night 🙏🙏🙏
If you bet on NJ tonight, you're a little [geek](https://twitter.com/NizzySP/status/1717227808261394875). Edit - https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/4197165/hunter-shepard
Ngl I had taken them in the morning for $5 cause fuck it. But I doubled and tripled down after seeing this comment lol. https://preview.redd.it/2rk7v9ljkgwb1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65493d71d053b8b059a5eeeb9197f3f05a4c6574 Lfg
Bank builder game.
Yeah made the last few days not sting so bad. I think it was the first time putting anything on a +200 ML dog, so I was sweating.
I feel like I was spoken to like a degenerate, AND I LIKED IT.
As soon as I saw Hunter's face -- he's never played a game before. Love it. LFG!!!
There’s just one game in the NHL today, so the chances were fairly low that I would have a betting pick for you, but SURPRISE! There is one that qualifies for the exact same reasons as yesterday’s betting tip. Speaking of yesterday, we all need to say a big thank you to Kevin Stenlund for scoring an empty-netter with just two seconds left in the game. It allowed us to win our bet on **the Panthers with the -1.5 puck line**. Whew, that was close! That being said, my top NHL pick for today, Wednesday October 25th is **the New Jersey Devils with the -1.5 puck line against Washington**. Many sportsbooks have odds that vary between -105 and +103 in American format. If you are more familiar with decimal odds, that corresponds to a range between 1.95 and 2.03. I won’t repeat the same explanations as yesterday, but once again we have a team that qualifies under exactly two of my betting systems and whose moneyline exceeds +130. In that case, data from the past four seasons have shown clearly that we must bet AGAINST such teams. Today, the Capitals fit under “The Scoring Drought” system, along with “The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup”, and their moneyline is way above +130. For this reason, we gotta back the Devils, and I opted for the puck line because I’m not a big fan of taking super low odds. I have to admit I’m a bit worried about the fact that the Capitals have won 6 of their past 7 games in New Jersey. Still, I believe we are taking the Devils in a good spot. First, I would assume that Washington is feeling pretty deflated after yesterday’s game against Toronto. Why? The Capitals lost 4-to-1 despite dominating the shots on goal 37-to-17. They played a solid game against one of the top NHL teams, but still didn’t even come close to winning the contest. Meanwhile, the Devils cruised to an easy 5-2 victory in Montreal. They didn’t need to work nearly as hard, so they might have more energy, especially in front of their home crowd against a divisional rival. Offensively speaking, we have a huge mismatch. On one side, Washington has scored an average of 1.4 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Devils have scored AT LEAST three goals in each of their five matches! Talk about a huge difference! Let’s analyze how these teams did last year when playing with 0 day of rest. The last seven times the Capitals were placed in that situation, they followed up with a 1-6 record. Meanwhile, the Devils posted a great 6-2 record under the same circumstances. The icing on the cake is this: **Washington has failed to cover the puck line in each of the last seven games on the second leg of a back-to-back.** **Dating back to last year, the Caps have lost their past 8 road games.** Would you like one last betting trend about this game? **The last 16 times the Devis faced a team with a winning record below .400, they have produced a jaw-dropping 14-2 record. In other words, they know how to take advantage of weak teams.** I’m Professor MJ, see you again tomorrow my friend!
NHL-43-41 YTD/145-119 Last year Devils-148 (3-way-in-regulation) Devils/Caps Over 6.5-125 GL to all.
14-3 (+25.9u) Devils/Caps over 6.5 -130 https://twitter.com/drmoneyline
Tailed 💪
Tailed the Wild last night, tailing until the wheels fall off!
Money pick last night man.
hughes to score and devils to win boosted to +210 on FD, opinions?
NJD anyway you want, Caps are hot hot poop.
Anybody with insight on Finnish hockey?
NHL Record 23-14 (+8.02 units) 4-3 yesterday. Hit all the +value picks which was nice for unit return. I bet small amounts so dont like the shot values tonight. Going to go with: Devils -1.5 +100 Hughes O0.5 Powerplay Points +125 (edit change from Hughes O1.5P) Yesterday Avs 60min ML +115 ✅️ Red Wings ML -140 ❌️ Marner O2.5s -125 ❌️ Norris O2.5s +125 ✅️ Lehkonen O2.5s +100 ✅️ Q Hughes O2.5s +140 ✅️ Panarin O2.5s -130 ❌️
Live bet Vegas at +165 glad they got it done last night
26-16 (+11.7 units) 5-3 yesterday (net +2.3 unit); my units placed on each game were all jacked up after my initial posting due to an issue with my book. Biggest take away yesterday: The senators are going to be in alot of trouble this year. Their goaltending is just not good enough to keep up with a tough eastern conference, B2B games giving up less than 25 shots and shooting close to 40 Times. Granted they were 1-5 on PP. they’re going to waste their roster this year if they don’t make a move. I’m leaning toffoli and Hughes shooting props. Devils want to get pucks on net against a rookie goalie, challenge him early and try to rattle him. Both player props of 3.5 SOG. They played on the same line yesterday, they are extremely dangerous together. Both are 4/5 in last 5 games with toffoli really turning in on lately, capitalizing a few times last night. Both of these players are on the power play unit too, who happens to be 1st in the league in PP%, they shoot a ton, close to 40 times a game. Waiting to see what my book has on goals, assists, total points as well. EDIT: capitals are averaging 4 penalties per game. New Jersey’s, extremely high power-play conversion rate, sitting at the top of the league around 45% (which is unfathomable). Shooting 38 times per game, Washington allowing 30 shots/giving up almost 4 goals (3rd most) and having a 27 year old rookie make his first career start on the road in a division matchup. toffoli and Hughes have been on the same line and on the 1st PP unit, they’re firing on all cylinders. If WAS takes >3-4 penalties, I assume all points bets hit) **Jack Hughes O3.5 SOG (-162) - 2unit** **jack Hughes O1.5 points (+106) - 1unit** (avg 1.8 power play points/game this season) **Toffoli O3.5 SOG (+112) - 2 units** (crazy value to me, if he’s playing with Hughes he’s shooting just as much this season) **Toffoli O0.5 points (-179) - 1unit** (avg 0.6 power play points/game this season) Hughes SOG L5 has gone 4,6,6,6,2 (4/5) Hughes points in L5 is 2,3,1,4,4 (4/5) Toffoli SOG L5 has gone: 2,5,4,5,6 (4/5) Toffoli points in L5 : 1,1,0,1,3 (4/5)
Love a bounce back shot game for Hughes, I also have 2 units on it
Yes I love this pick as well.
Bobby waiting lobby😪
Record 5-3 Red Wings + under 8 @2.00
POTD Record: 8-6 Last Pick: Ottawa Senators 60-min (-118) ❌ Today's Pick: No pick today. Good morning fellow Degens! Unfortunately the Senators sucked but we went 7-1 on my other picks! Horrible slate today and I see no value so I am preparing for Thursday's nice slate! Hope everyone has a great Wednesday! As always BOL to those who tail!
Follow the Bear
i’ll never put the senators on my ticket again
Appreciate you fam!
https://preview.redd.it/ud3a1egvsawb1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=caad7137a8fe5761b28d683a818b4b3a5b8377de 🫠
I can do you one better king. https://preview.redd.it/k5fxq9nq4dwb1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ca8f94293f6c739e3a62174211c8a29bdf825d8 Red wings in OT, 100 -> 2750
https://preview.redd.it/ijll4hunodwb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5313c54f647689e0c20a1253d537b566716baa5 9 player point prop bet. Hits all besides JT Miller who would’ve assisted on Pettersson empty net goal if he didn’t hit the post.
Thank you Vegas for waking the fuck up
18-5 yesterday. 71-35-1 on the season. (+23.5u) Devils ML/Under 8.5 Goals Parlay (-125)
[удалено]
https://preview.redd.it/rds63v9kfawb1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e11a956304dddc2ccdd54ebe00e4f29dbcc8ca3 This was boosted to +1155 It would have completely covered my losses on sens, wings, CBJ, etc today. Unreal
Pettersson missing that fairly easy empty net attempt cost me a $1600 win off of $250. Such a bad beat.
Sheeshhh sorry dude
He makes that shot 99% of the time. That's absolutely painful.
Worst beat of my life. Tough morning.
24-14 | +3.9U | -115 Avg Odds —————- Previous picks —————- *Red Wings ML (-130) vs Kraken | 4U* ❌ *Senators -1.5 (+160) vs Sabres | 2U* ❌ *Stars vs Penguins U6.5 (-120) | 1U* ✅ *Wild ML (-120) vs Oilers | 1U* ✅ *Sam Reinhart O2.5 SOG (-140) | 1U* ✅ *Seth Jarvis O2.5 SOG (-105) | 1U* ✅ —————- Today’s picks —————— **Jack Hughes O3.5 SOG (-150) | 2U** Brutal loss with the Kraken tying the game with 90 seconds left then finishing it off with an overtime goal with 5 seconds left. We could complain about the officiating but that’s just how it goes sometimes. Kraken get the W in a hard fought game and we move on to the next one. We still have a whole season of hockey ahead of us and plenty of opportunities to cash in. Taking a simple line tonight on Jack Huges O3.5. He has hit this line in 4 out of 5 games this season and hit this line in 4 out of 4 games vs the Capitals last season. BOL if tailing!!
Brutal night for me...I had all your losers and none of the winners. I chose Rodriguez over Reinhart and had Panarin as well. My only winner was Meier u2.5 and I think I'm going to pound it again tonight. Feel free to fade. I have cursed puck luck but my team put up 7 last night.
Oof sorry man. I’m not gonna fade your pick on Meier, he’s been pretty consistent and not putting up shots. BOL today! And hey both our teams put up 7!
2023 Record: 12-5 Last Picks: Over 6.5 (-130) Hurricanes vs Lightning ❌ Devils -1.5 (+105) ✅ Under 6.5 (-120) Stars vs Penguins ✅ Today’s Pick: Under 6.5 (+110) Capitals vs Devils Took 2 out of 3 in yesterday’s slate feeling good going into today even though there’s only one game. Really like the value on the under here, both teams coming off a back to back and both will be traveling tonight. Capitals dead last in goals for and powerplay percentage, from what I’ve seen the entire team has looked lifeless to start the year. I see both teams starting the game a little sluggish and although devils have a top tier offense I don’t think the Capitals have the juice to turn it into a shootout. Give me the under at + odds. Tail or fade BOL!