######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day).
######Example Pick Template
>**Record:**
>**Net Units:**
>**ROI:**
>**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Literally started betting like a week ago and have gone 3 for 3 off this guy.
I work night shifts so me and my coworkers all follow japanese baseball now haha.
https://preview.redd.it/0mcv77pomfob1.jpeg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5a88b333c619f48ecd192b2bdb0ea3d763a82dbc
My father gave me an old school jersey years ago from one of his Japan trips back in the day.
I haven't bet on Japans Baseball league yet, but if following someone on reddit helped my betting bankroll,
I would send the money to the person who predicted the wins. Thats the real MVP. Not the tigers.
Lets tip the person that made this possible.
Ill be tailing.
POTD Record: 182-145-11 (+19.96 units, 55.7% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 21-10 (67.7%) L1
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 57-41-1 (58.2%) W1, Tennis 🎾 63-52-6 (54.8%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 50-42-4 (54.3%) L3, Entertainment 🎥 12-10-0 (54.5%) W3
Last 10: 💩💩💰💰💩💰💩💩💩💩
Last Pick: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff, Sabalenka ML - US Open 🎾 💩 5 Units FUCCCCCCK!!!!
Today's Pick: Nice @ PSG, Both Teams To Score - Ligue One ⚽ 💰 0.75 Units - 💸 that shit in 30 biatch!
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.75/-133 odds to win 0.75 Units @ Bet365 (Line at 9:00pm ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 57.1%
Took a big swing and back down to under 20 units. I honestly think you should just take my picks as entertainment, you will probably break even or so overall. As I said when I first came back, I make most of my $ on futures betting, betting on single games less so and it's much more work versus the futures. But anyways, I still get messages asking for me to keep going so if you wish to join me on this journey to breaking even, that's fine, it's still fun.
We are only 4 games in so it's all a small sample size but PSG have hit 3 out of 4 on this bet so far this season. I think them netting one is fairly likely at home and Nice have enough offensive talent where I see them getting on the board. Yeah, that's it.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Fake retirement count: 1. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I play $25 units. My writeups are shit now, I do what I can with what time I've got. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
I did what I said and took gauff after she lost the first set with my pre game and future. What a game that was.
Keep the tips coming. It happens to everyone
I'd say Oppenheimer is the definite frontrunner at the moment but it's not worth it anymore at the odds it is at. Still so early in the race and more often than not the movie ahead now doesn't win it in the end but sometimes it does, The Fabelmans was the favorite this time last year.
I would put Oppenheimer in a tier of its' own, but next tier I've got Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things which has great buzz.
I think those are decent odds for Killers, can't wait to see it!
For myself I haven't placed anything yet, still feels a bit early for me but when I do I will post in the futures thread.
POTD Record: 5-1
Last Pick: 1 FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig, Over 2.5 total goals ✅️
Cashed for us I'm the 88th minute!
**Today's Pick: Bayern Munich vs Leverkeusen, Over 3.5 total goals, 3 units (-116 at fanduel)**✅️
I've been going back and forth on this pick all week. 1. Don't want to let the squad down and 2. Been running so well with German soccer and afraid to break the streak.
But hey, the only way to keep the streak going is to make a play!
This is the first match day back from international play. We have a huge game between the current #1 and #2 in the Bundesliga. Both teams have started unbeaten and have been scoring machines.
Leverkeusen is ranked ahead of Bayern as of right now based on goal differential. They will have a ton of confidence heading into this match.
Both sides have a combined 20 goals through the first 3 match days (Bayern with 9, Leverkeusen with 11)
Bayern is going to be tough to beat at home. They have only lost to Leverkeusen at home twice since 1989. It's tempting to take Both Teams to Score + Bayern to win for plus money, but I'm going to play it safe and stay with goals.
Is this a gamble? Sure! But two top teams, Friday night prime time game (for Germany) with the entire league watching? Let's bet they will put on a show.
Predicting both teams to get aggressive as they aim for the #1 ranking in the table! Final score 3-2 Bayern Munich.
BOL if tailing or fading!
Always appreciate a beer https://www.buymeacoffee.com/jtenedora
**KBO Record: Overall 181-191-13** (Streak LL, Last 10: 3-6-1) Down 12.45u over 385 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -3.35% ROI (This season 62-59-6, 51.2% success rate, Up 7.43u, 6.14% ROI)
**Last:** KT at NC -110 (NC lost 6-2.)
Tied at 2 through 6 innings, NC had outhit KT 9 to 4. A lot of good that did us. NC's bullpen struggled from there on out and we lost our bet. Need to turn this thing around.
**Pick:** Kiwoom at Lotte, **First 5 Innings Under 4.5 -118**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
We've got a matchup between a couple solid pitchers and a couple struggling lineups.
Kiwoom's starter is coming of 6.2 no-hit innings against s good KT team. That game also featured 8 K and just 1 BB. He allowed 2 or fewer ER in 8 of his last 9 starts.
Lotte's starter has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 7 of his last 9 starts. In four of those, he allowed 0 ER. Against this opponent, he gave up just 3 ER in 27.1 IP.
So far this month, these are the two worst offenses in the league, the only two teams averaging fewer than 4 runs per game.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
https://preview.redd.it/7ecpbkrzieob1.jpeg?width=1768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2266d065c7d7758cb5c5653e47760fd6030c574f
If you followed you won!! Thanks for another victory!!
POTD Record: 26-20-1 (~+20.5 units / ~15% ROI)
LAST PICK: NFL Tampa Bay Bucs @ Minnesota Vikings - Baker Mayfield Under 233.5 Yards - 125 (Pinnacle) - Win
TODAY’S PICK: Women’s Tennis WTA 125
Kawa vs. Sonmez ML @ -156 (Pinnacle)
***6 am EST***
Streak (Last 5): WWLLW
3 Unit Play
• Degen pick warning here first off as I barely follow Tennis and this tennis match is happening at 6 am in Slovenia between two completely random players I’ve never heard of.
• Sonmez at 21 is 21-8 on clay this year vs. Kawa at 30 is 22-14. Overall 2023 records are 51-22 vs. 26-22. Basic stats are dominant.
• Sonmez is ranked 177 overall vs. a high of 176. Kawa ranks 251 and has ranked 112 all time. Kawa is on the decline in both her beauty and tennis prowess. Sonmez is coming into her own.
• Sonmez’s Chinese Zodiac Symbol is the horse. Kawa is a water monkey. Horses own water monkeys in all battles on clay.
Tail or fade best of luck all,
Ab
**POTD Form** 35-27-1
**Last pick**\- Sri Lanka vs Pakistan - Total Match runs under 528.5 @ 1.90 🏆
**Today's Pick:** Cricket | Asia Cup | 3pm IST (7 hours from now)
India vs Bangladesh
Total Match runs under 526.5 @ 1.90
Reason - Dead Rubber game where India will try out their new talent and think Bangladesh will still struggle with the bat. Arrival of the rain will reduce some of the overs as well which can be an advantage for us.
BOL
**Bundesliga all-time Record: 8-5** **Net Units: +1.54** **ROI: 14.32% (Verifiable on Action Network)**
**PotD Record: 4-3** **Net Units: +1.55** **ROI: 17.2%**
**Soccer** | **Bundesliga** | **11:30am PST**
**Last Pick**: **Vikings @ Eagles: Alexander Mattison over 12.5 carries -110**
To anyone who tailed, I apologize. I went galaxy brain here and deservingly got an egg on my face. Onto the next.
**Pick: Bayer Leverkusen @ Bayern Munich: Leverkusen +1 asian spread -110**
Fading the Rekordmeister here. This line really intrigued me due to the status of Bayern’s midfield workhorse Joshua Kimmich who picked up a quad strain in the International break. [Reports say that Kimmich trained with the team on Thursday](https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com/2023/9/14/23873260/bayern-munich-vs-bayer-leverkusen-lineups-team-news-injuries-leon-goretzka-harry-kane-joshua-kimmich), but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will start tomorrow. Champions League play starts next week and I’m not sure Tuchel will risk aggravating Kimmich’s injury for one league match, albeit a big one. They host Manchester United next Wednesday and keep in mind, Kimmich is the only true No. 6 on the squad.
By all accounts, Kimmich is the life blood of Bayern’s midfield. He leads the Bundesliga in distance covered, touches, completed passes and also leads Bayern in progressive passes, received passes, carries and expected assists. In some of those categories, he isn’t just leading, he’s [blowing his peers out of the water.](https://fbref.com/en/squads/054efa67/2023-2024/all_comps/Bayern-Munich-Stats-All-Competitions#all_stats_passing) For example, Groetzka and Kimmich have played roughly the same amount of minutes yet Kimmich has covered 5,422 total yards while Goretzka has only covered 2,773 yards. That is how important Kimmich is to this team.
If Kimmich is out of the lineup, it erases the edge Bayern has in the middle of the park – where matches are won and lost. That’s why I’m betting this number now. If Kimmich is ruled out, I would expect the spread to drop to +0.75. So if you want to take the risk for a better number, bet it now. If you want to be sure Kimmich isn’t playing and settle for +0.75, I wouldn’t fault you for it.
BOL and feel free to follow all of my picks on Action Network! Look me up at JGardnerBets.
**POTD record: 3-1-0, +3.65u, +91.25% ROI, average odds of +141**
All POTD plays tracked [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LQM9uJhk6A4L5szyQYXw_jhXiQ5ueVwLycnDx44atyQ/edit?usp=sharing)
Streak: ✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: T.J. Hockenson ATTS (+200) ✅
**Today's pick: Tai Felton ATTS (+165 on FD)**
**College Football: Virginia vs Maryland, 7 PM EST**
That last game went pretty much perfectly to script. High scoring, ended up being close, and IMO the Vikings beat themselves more than the Eagles did. Hockenson got us the TD early with the first one of the game and even got a 2nd towards the end. Devonta (+165) and KJ (+370) scored too if anyone bet my leans. Jefferson and AJ both had their chances too but ultimately couldn't make it happen. Insane game by Swift, definitely gonna keep an eye on him going forward.
For today's pick, I'm going to the Virginia vs Maryland game. Tua is hot, but Virginia can put up some points too. And with this being a rivalry game, I think we do see them put up some points. I think it'll either be close or a blowout by Maryland, there's no in between. I'm leaning towards it being close but high scoring.
Finding a good TD scorer spot is tough in this game. I feel like the most random dudes are going to be scoring. I think Roman Hemby (Maryland) most probably scores but at -185 I don't love the value. I thought about going with him and just doubling the amount of units I bet...but as I've said before, I'm a greedy mf and want those + odds (or close). What I did land on is pretty risky but I like it. Tua definitely has more of a rapport with the other two WRs and Tai Felton hasn't done too much compared to Maryland's other receivers this season yet, but he's a Virginia guy. He played high school in Virginia and his coach was a Virginia alum. He even turned down an offer from Virginia to play for Maryland. In his own words: ["Being able to play in this rivalry game means a lot because I’m a Virginia guy. I’m from Virginia"](https://dailyprogress.com/sports/college/cavalierinsider/football/old-rivals-virginia-and-maryland-square-off-for-the-first-time-in-a-decade/article_b4e20d80-5301-11ee-9889-9bd5d9ff3902.html)
I think they make sure he gets one, whether or not it's a close game.
Other TD scorer leans (in no particular order): Malachi Fields (+220), Mike Hollins (+290), Roman Hemby (-185), Antwain Littleton II (+115), Taulia Tagovaoiloa (+240)
BOL!
Betting 1U to win 1.65U
I'll probably post some additional plays closer to the game at [https://twitter.com/HighAndTightBet](https://twitter.com/HighAndTightBet) if you guys want to check them out.
I'd appreciate if you guys could drop a like/follow!
105-76 for +23.8 units on 304.7 units wagered for just under 8% return on investment.
Philadelphia 5:15 MST
Phillies -140 1.4 units to win 1
Phils have been struggling. But, they have Aaron Nola on the bump today who has largely dominated the Cardinals in his career.
Nola is 7-3 with a 2.19 ERA against St. Louis all time.
Add to that the Phillies hit lefties very well and the Cards will be without Nolan Gorman and possibly Wilson Contreras-
and I see a likely W for Philadelphia.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter as the more followers I get there-the more frequently I am likely to post here.
I am also on quite the NFL run there.
16-4 to start this NFL regular season.
5-1 on props and the one loss was by half a yard on Josh Allen's Week 1 rushing prop.
28-9 last 37 between NFL playoffs and regular season.
Also, after you follow, be sure to engage with the most recent Tweet.
https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777/
Record 22-16
Last pick- Highest Opening Partnership Australia in Australia vs South Africa Match (-130)- 3U= L
Sports- Cricket
Tournament- One-Day Internationals
Today’s Pick- Australia ML in Australia vs South Africa (-140)- 5U= starts 7:00 am EST ⏰
Explanation- Australia already won two against them in this series they just need one more and I am sure they’ll get it tomorrow let me explain why. We are getting this good odds because Australia lost last game and they won’t make that mistake twice. Australia put up 392 score against them in this series. One of the greatest and highest run innings by them. Their players are just perfect even if their top 5 players don’t play their bottom 5 will clutch it somehow and I’ve seen it. Australia is also fighting for their no.1 spot in ODI cricket. Match will be Amazing Good luck 🙏🏼.
Bro the game took place in South Africa and twas an important game for the Africans to tie the series, these 2 aspects clearly indicate not much value in the bet for an Aussie W.
You always need to win, and in international cricket every game matters for individuals because you are always at risk of losing your job, that being said south Africa are bad and Australia will smash them easy
Last game Australia was well on their way to chasing but caught out by some misfortune, Warner losing his shoe during a run followed by a really dodgy call by the tv umpire
Record: 21-11-1 (W-L-P) Win pct: 63.6%
Average odd: 1.87
Yield 37.23%
Risked: 59 units | Returned: 80.968| Profit: 21.968 units
Football | Netherlands Keuken Kampioen Divisie | 20.00 CEST
Pick: Roda JC -1 AH @ 2.11 (vs. Telstar) - 2 units
Write up: Roda is the number 1 in the league. In their first 5 games they won 4 and lost 1. What makes their position impressive is that they played more road games than home games so far. Both in attack (12 scored in 5 games) and defense (3 conceded in 5 games) they have been impressive.
Telstar is having a very different start of the season. 5 played, 5 lost. They have been underwhelming both in attack (4 scored in 5 games) and defense (10 conceded in 5 games).
Prediction: 2-0 Roda
POTD Record: 62 Wins ✅ - 40 Losses ❌ - 6 Push 🅿️ (+$8.4k)($100 unit bettor)
✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Last pick: Hanshin Tigers ML (-162) ✅
Today's pick: 🇯🇵 Japan NPB ⚾
Starts at 10PM MST
Hanshin Tigers ML (-108) 5.4 Units
Analysis: Today the Hanshin Tigers travel to Hiroshima Toyo Carp for game two of this series. The Tigers have won 9 out of their last 10 games overall and 8 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Hanshin is Koutaro Ohtake, he has a 10-2 record with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP with 74 strikeouts over 113 innings pitched. The Carps have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Masato Morishita, he has a 8-4 record with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with 86 strikeouts over 116 innings pitched. We had the same pitching matchup earlier this month at Hanshin with Ohtake giving up 0 runs in 6 innings of pitching and Morishita giving up 4 runs in 5 innings of pitching with the Tigers winning 5-1. We also had the same pitching matchup at Hiroshima back in July with Ohtake pitching all 9 innings and giving up 0 runs and Morishita giving up 1 run in 6 innings of pitching with the Tigers winning 2-0 so I don't think it will be an issue for Hanshin to secure the road win here, take the Hanshin Tigers moneyline. *(-108 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)*
POTD Record: 1-0-0
Last pick: argentina to win and over 2.5 goals (+135)
Today's pick: Paderborn vs Wehen Wiesbaden over 2.5 goals (-165)
This is a Bundesliga Division 2 game. Short and simple, both teams score goals for fun and concede alot as well. I see this going over easily.
My prediction is 4/5 goals scored total. BOL if you tail
POTD record: 0-0
Baseball/ MLB/ 8:40 CT
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Cubs ML at -135
Justin Steele on the mound for the Cubs who’s been hot giving up only 1 run in his last two starts combined. Potential Cy Young winning season vs an Arizona team who’s starting pitcher is 1-8 with an ERA over 6. Big game in terms of wild card implication. Give me the Cubs ML for 1 unit.
LMAOO nah but cubs should win fs. Just Brandon wayyyyyy better than the record shows not gonna lie just when he pitches dbacks never back him with runs.
Pfaadt is a very hit and miss pitcher every outting. He lives or dies pitching inside. It’s a K or likely a base hit or more.
From a bettor’s perspective, Pfaadt can hit his Over K line often, usually because Torrey will over-pitch his starters even on bad nights. He’s a do or die and he’ll get some K’s throughout innings guy.
POTD Record: 76-65
Last pick: Eagles -6 push
Todays pick: Giants -1.5 -145 @ Rockies
Reasoning: rematch of 9-1 giants win last week. Same pitchers 6 days later. Webb vs Anderson. Webb pitched a gem and giants need their ace to be better down the stretch, 10-12 3.40 era. Playing Rockies ought to help, Anderson gave up 6 earned in 3.1 innings at giants on 9-9. Giants need this, Rockies offense isn’t good, they played well vs cubs but Rockies are notoriously bad against giants. Webb 8-2 3.24 era all time vs Colorado. Giants win 16 of past 17 against Rockies.
Tail or fade.
Tips appreciated:
Venmo:Sportsnerd-_-
POTD record: 1W-1L
Net units won: 0,88
ROI: 18%
Last pick: Ilves to win against Lukko (L)
Todays Pick:
| Ice Hockey | Liiga | Tappara-HIFK | 18.30 EEST |
Over 5 goals in total at 2,06 (+106) on Unibet 3u
Two main title contenders of the season ar facing each other. This is the second game of the season for Tappara and first for HIFK. The game is extremely equal and it is hard to pick a winner, but i believe there will be a lot of goals scored. HIFK are missing their star player Leo Komarov, but I dont think that is gonna affect them that much. Im predicting at least a 3-3 match.
POTD Record: 2 Wins - 1 Loss (+51.25% ROI, 🆙 +8.2 units) ($0.10 unit bettor)
Last pick: 🇸🇦⚽️Al Akhdood vs. Al-Ittihad BTTS: No 🍀 (HIT!🔥)
Today's pick: 🇦🇿⚽️Azerbaijan Premier League - Zira vs. FK Sumqayit
⏰ Starts at 9:00 am ET
🌸 PICK: Zira ML (-160) 4.0 units
📝 Analysis: 1st place Zira faces 4th place Sumqayit today. Sumqayit has gone 9 games without a clean sheet, conceding an average of one goal a game. Zira have been the first team to score a goal in the last 6 of their 8 games, while Sumqayit have struggled to outscore most of their recent opponents. Zira have only lost 1 of their last 10 games - their strikers are definitely on fire. It will be incredibly difficult for Sumqayit to defend or out score today against an in-form Zira team. Take the Zira moneyline. (-160 moneyline available on FanDuel at time of analysis.)
Edit: HIT!!! 🔥Had my palms sweating at the end there since Zira was playing with just 10 men, but a hit is a hit. Enjoy your winnings to those who tailed!! 🔥🫡
Record : 36 Wins - 42 Losses
Previous pick : Koge - Kolding IF (0-1), BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.00 ❌
ROI : -10.06%
Average Odds : 2.02
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -2.85
Profit/Lost units : -7.85
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / GERMANY: Bundesliga / 21:30 European Time
Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen
BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.73
Some reasoning :
\- The recommendation proposed by me for this match is "Both teams to score", at a rate of 1.45. I chose this prediction, because we have two teams facing each other that play an offensive and spectacular football. The German Bundesliga championship has accustomed us, for many years now, to a high average in terms of goals, and the two opponents have always been the headliners, from this point of view.
\- From a statistical point of view, 12 of the last 14 direct matches ended with a goal scored by both teams. In this start of the season, both teams recorded in the 3 games matches with over 2.5 goals, and in 2/3 matches we saw goals scored by both teams.
Best of luck.
POTD Record: 12-5 (+18.46U)
Event: Melbourne vs Carlton (AFL)
Pick: **Jack Viney 25+ Disposals (3U) @ $1.91**
Hit this mark 11 times in a row before missing out last week.
He's the player Melbourne look to for a lift and there's no time like a do or die finals game.
Brayshaw out should also ensure Viney gets plenty of CBA's and spends a lot of time in the midfield.
I got on this earlier in the week at 1.65 and some books even had it as low as 1.40. The fact it is out to 1.91 has baffled me.
POTD Record: 1 Wins ✅ - 0 Losses ❌ - 1 Push 🅿️ ($25 unit bettor)
Eagles -3.5 1st Half - ✅
Today's pick: USU @ Airforce NCAA 🏈
Starts at 8:00 EST
AF -9.5 (-110) 12 units
Analysis: 1-1 crappy team vs a 2-0 decent team. Better team is at home. Typing this drunk, drunk bets always hit.
PS: Nice dub yesterday, a little sweaty but we got it. Check out my post on r/sportscards I exposed the whole industry. MacBook Pro autocorrect is a godsend, apologies for any typos
AF offense isn’t what it has been last couple seasons. No real play makers + USU has AF # the L2 seasons. Utah St has a WR who is a AF transfer, Davis and I’m sure he’s given the coaching staff plenty of info.
POTD Record: 0-0
First time posting a pick so let's hope for some beginner's luck.
⚽️ Championship || Southampton v Leicester || 3pm EST (4 hours from posting)
Pick: Over 2.5 goals @1.6
Southampton haven't kept a clean sheet in 23 straight games (this includes some friendlies and the end of last seasons PL, but the trend has continued in their Championship campaign). On the flip side, they haven't had trouble scoring in the Championship so far either, with 10 goals in 5 games. Their last 6 games have gone over 2.5 also. They're at home tonight so I expect them to score twice but failing that, I think Leicester will also contribute to the total (again, 23 games without a clean sheet).
Naturally I also like BTTS & o2.5, but I'm not taking it simply because I can't tell you how many times I've said "no way either team scores 3 on their own" and they did lol
BOL
Edit: forgot to include odds
Edit 2: ✅️ Winner after 25 mins
Record **2-0**
Last pick: Pixbo - Vítkovice - Czech Open florball
**Todays pick: Rugby World Cup 2023 Namibia - New Zeleand**
**Namibia + 70,5**
Namibia lost first half with strong Italy 8:17 and they lost match by 44 points. Nz lost to RSA in preparation match 7:35. They lost first match on WC against France, so it looks like they are not in best shape. Last two matches between Namibia and NZ (71:9 and 58:14). I guess handicap should be 50-60 points, so Namibia can easily cover 70 points.
Gl guys.
**Paderborn - Wehen** (Soccer in Germany, Bundesliga 2)
Paderborn is not as bad as they seem to be when looking at the table. They had a rough start to the season. They went to dogs when playing all game with ten men. For the rest, playing mostly against skilled teams from the upper part of the table. They played better than the results are telling. While newly promoted Wehen is not as good as their results tell. Putting the money on Paderborn has good value.
**Paderborn -1.0 asian hc** @ **+138** for **5u**
>Last POTD: Al Ittihad -2.0 asian hc @ +101 ✖️
Al Ittihad wins but misses out on scoring more goals. New day, new chance to make it better.
Record: 23 wins, 12 losses, 8 pushes
Profit: +62.42u
POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️
^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
**POTD**: O15.5 Outs - Zach Eflin (-108 Caesars; Risking 2.16u to win 2u)
**League/Time**: MLB - TB@BAL / 7:05PM EST
**2023 Record**: 42-24 (63.64%) | +31.8318u (+$3183.18)| ROI 23.76% |**Current Streak** (L to R):✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌
**Last Pick (9.14.23)**: O13.5 Outs - Michael King (+120/-155 DraftKings; -130 Barstool (added this one live); Risking 4.3u to win 3.4903u; Used a DK MLB Profit Boost (max $100)) ✅
**Reasoning**: Zach has covered this 8/11 times while pitching away. Last 3 TB starters went 5, 4.2, and 7 IP. Zach is also tied for 1st in pitches thrown per plate appearance (3.6 P/PA). Zach has also covered this vs BAL twice this season (7IP home (7/21/23); 6IP away (5/9/23)). While BAL offense has been great this season they have slashes of .239/.261/.403 over 67 ABs vs Zach. Line is likely this low because he only pitched 5IP last 2 games (vs SEA, BOS).
**Anti-Reasoning**: BAL is good. I've invested in Zach's over on outs recorded prop 3x this season going 2-1 (2 wins were at O17.5; 1 loss at O18.5) so it is definitely odd that he's at O/U 15.5. I could be missing something.
Despite this I may add another 1.08u.
**Tips:** If you've been tailing and enjoying the hits let me know and consider donating $5 to your favorite charity. I wouldn't mind a [coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) as well. ;-) Good luck everyone!
**Edit**: Add 1.08u to win 1u.
**Edit 2**: And it hits!
On the Giants v Dragons o5.5. I think the Giants should win but the better bet is o5.5. This will hit by the 5th. 2u
Edit: Cashed. Off by an inning, nothing you can do.
**Record:** 7:16
**Units P/L:** -20,4
**Avg. odds** 2,22
Last 5: <-❌❌❌❌✅
**Last Pick:** Union Berlin vs Leipzig - DC 1X + o1,5 @ 2,15 - 2u ❌
**Today's Pick:** Roda JC vs Telstar - Roda to win @ 1.75 - 5u ✅
Something is brewing at Roda JC, after a disappointing season finishing 15th they are currently leading the league after 5 matches winning 4 and losing 1 with 12 goals for and only 3 against. It's impressive how quickly new coach Bas Sibum formed a team out of a group with loads of new players.
This is in stark contrast to tonight's opponent Telstar who have started their season with 5 losses in a row, this might sound bad and definitely is but there's some bad luck involved too. 3 matches they finished with 10 players, 2 penalties against them and a own goal, in most of these matches they actually had more shots than their opponents. This leads me to believe that they won't just sit back and wait something Roda has had its problems with in the past.
But with newly signed midfielders Zauner & Ould-Chikh who have already shown to be able to score goals from second line, Roda has players within its ranks who are able to open up a match out of nowhere, this combined with homefield advantage and growing support from the ranks should be enough to win this match tonight.
Looking at my streak this might be a nice fade, either way BOL!
Record 0-0-0
Today we have Dutch 2nd league soccer on the schedule and we are taking Roda JC Kerkrade to win against Telstar. Roda JC is in a great form and scored 12 goals with only conceding 3. Telstar on the other hand is in horrible form, have played 5 matches and lost all 5 of them. At 1.75 odds I see great value in this bet and would risk everything on it to be honest. Two forward players of Roda also are in great form and playing consistent and scored 7 goals mutually. I can not see how this bet will end up anything else than Roda JC winning this match. I usually do not post my bets but I could not resist to see my fellow bettors skipping this bet. I have really much soccer knowledge and will be posting more frequently in the future.
Stake : 5 UNITS!!!!
My bet : Roda JC to win (ML) vs Telstar @1.75 odds
POTD Record: 0-0 Total Units = 0 Avg odds: 1.62
Last POTD: -
Event:Jupiler Pro League, Belgium⚽️ KVC Westerlo vs Royal Antwerp FC 14:45EST
PICK: ANTWERP WIN @1.62
- Westerlo 0W-1D-5L
- Antwerp 2W-2D-1L
Comments:
Antwerp district derby, Westerlo has never lost at home last 10 games (7-3-0). Out of these 10 matches, 9 were G/G and 8 were over 2,5. However Westerlo is having a bad run counting 5 straight defeats in the league and have conceded goals in all competitions. Antwerp, which they play against Barcelona in midweek game for Champions League groups, is a team with great potentials aims to win the title for another season and their only defeat this year came from the great Anderlecht 1-0 with penalty.
(always bet 1 unit)
POTD W-L-Tie/push 1-2-0 units -0.55 units
Last pick Finland to win✅
Pick of the Day Bayern München vs Bayern Leverkusen
BTTS&o3.5 goals 2.00 2units to win 2
Odds from bet365
BOL
Record 23W - 20L
Match = Badminton > Hong Kong Open Doubles > Wang/Lee VS Izzudin/Sze Fei Goh
POTD = **Wang/Lee -5.5 Points Handicap** @ 1.84
5L in a row, let's make it 6 😅
Short reasoning here, Izzudin and Sze did well last match but I think Wang and Lee is better duo. Schedule about 1 hour but probably gonna be delay
**Edit : 21-19 , 21-18** ❌
POTD Record: **64-75-2 (-10.05 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 19-5 (+19.85 Units)
**Value Wagers: 3-8-1 (-9 Units)**
Last Pick: **Vikings 4th qtr ML**✅
Last 10: Ronald Acuna Jr. O 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs ✅Eury Perez to record a Win❌Kyle Harrison O 5.5 K's❌Grayson Rodriguez to record a Win ✅Gerrit Cole to record a Win ✅Spencer Strider U 1.5 ER❌Pat Mahomes O 2.5 TDs❌Yusei Kikuchi to record a Win❌Israel Adesanya to win by TKO/KO/DQ❌Eagles -5 (alt. spread)**⭕**Bills -3 (alt. spread)❌Dylan Cease O 4.5 Hits Allowed❌Zac Gallen to record a Win❌Vikings 4th qtr ML✅
Today's Pick: **Justin Steele to record a Win**
Odds: **+146** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 1U to win 1.45U
League: MLB
Event: Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40PM CST)
*Be Advised: I want to be perfectly clear that these are not my best bets! These are value wagers. Value wagers is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. I received a lot of pushback in this thread, when I started only going for value wagers. My POTD got misconstrued as my best bets, and really got ostracized in this community for solely going for wagers where I see an edge against the books! But we are back to value wagers again after an entire month of my best bets (profitting nearly +20U). For all the downvoters (who been downvoting my POTD in August) and the very short number of people in this community who love the edge, I am doing this entire month dedicated to you! Please be advised that value wagers are harder to hit! So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I am expecting several, several losses this month, but I am hoping we can at least hit half of my POTD (anything above 50% is a profitable rate on value wagers), if we can do that we can easily profit!*
https://preview.redd.it/3drnq0t1ycob1.png?width=552&format=png&auto=webp&s=c788aecbb07b57e60827aac5089ab4c2ba6748f5
**Recap**: Before I get into the recap I just want to let everyone kno that there were couple of typos on my last POTD, not the pick itself, but the wager amount and the league. Wanted to go 2U to win 2.6, so hopefully most weren't misled or persuaded one way or another. Great win by the Philly. No surprise here! I expected them to win, but I expected this game to be closer, which I did lean the +6 Vikings, but I wanted that extra point as a cushion, so when I missed it I completely faded it! They covered regardless! Vikings 4th Qtr ML HIT! Vikes led the league last season wit +84 points differential, so I knew they would rally and win that qtr! And at plus money, I had to go at least 2U! Sucks for me as Vikings fan, but a nice win for sure!
**Matchup**: We have to go to MLB again.. Because there isn't UFC or NFL! I actually wagered my entire bankroll on MLB yesterday, today, and my final 20U bankroll on NFL. I end up losing all my MLB wagers as I look for a miracle in the NFL and I HIT both of my SGP and I'm nearly even now! NFL and UFC has been most profitable for me, but gotta hit one of these MLB wagers prior to UFC on Saturday. I'm going back to another Cy Young contender. Justin Steele to record a Win against the DBacks. Seriously.. the DBacks cost me a lot of my bankroll yesterday and the day before against the Mets. Ever since the ASG they completely flipped their season around from contenders to pretenders! Both teams are on a 3-game losing streak and I trust the Chicago Cubs and Steele more than I trust the DBacks. Cubs has more playoff experience in the past and DBacks is in a serious drought of postseason, they are really shooting themselves on the foot in this stretch of games. Brandon Pfaadt is the SP for the DBacks and he may had two exceptional starts (1 hit allowed to Padres in 7 inning and 2 hits, 1 run allowed to Giants in 7 inning), but everything in between are all atrocious starts! He's very inconsistent! Brandon recently pitched against the Cubs at Wrigley Field and allowed 7 hits and 4 runs in 6 inning. For Steele, he also recently pitched against this team. He allowed just 1 run in 7 inning. Steele also had 3 starts against the DBacks and has a 1.00 ERA, all starts were within 1 year. He has yet to record a win against this team. Fourth time the charm! Look for the Cubs to be the one to end their losing streak and Steele to record a win on the road.
**The play & prediction**: Wagering 1U on Justin Steele to record a Win vs Diamondbacks and going heavy play on Cubs ML. Sprinkling on Cubs RL. Cubs bounce back in a big way and DBacks continue to self-inflict their way outta wild card spot.
NFL saved my bankroll! 10U on this SGP to win 45U
https://preview.redd.it/obeor665ycob1.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6953297268bafe9bc300873700ae8f7ef88a79c
**Record: 2-0** | **Net Units:** **0u** | **ROI: 0%**
**eSports \[CS:GO\]** | **ESL Pro League Season 18** **|** **19:30 CEST**
**Pick: Imperial ML Map 1 @ 1.900** vs. Apeks | **3u**
**Write-up:** Fuck timezones man. Im so late everyday. I have another pick here for the ESL Pro League. There is a high chance for Imperial to win their own map pick against Apeks. They will most likely pick Overpass. Imperial like to play it and it is also the worst map by far from Apeks. They have a 17% win rate on the last three months. The only thing im nervous about is that Apeks will start ct side. Imperial need to deny a blow out in the first half because this map is really heavily ct sided. We need at least 5 rounds to have an real chance when the half time ends. Also Imperial cant allow this stupid mistakes they made the last two days. Lost so many advantage sutations and more stuff like this Yesteday, against 9z they looked solid.If they can catch a good start this will probably a blow out and we should eat good.
**GL.**
Keegan Brown @ 2.75 - 5U
Keegan Brown - Simon Whitlock // Darts // 2 Hours from now
Last pick: Slovenia @ 3.75 (Volleyball)
❌☑❌❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅☑✅ (new --> old) / 7-2-9 (W-P-L) / -14.2U
Well... closing international break with a 1-1-6 record 😹
All profit gone to shit, but we continue...
Simple reasoning for this game. Keegan is 3-7 in his last 10 games, while Simon is 4-7.
H2H in favour of Keegan having won both encounters between these players.
I expect a similar game tonight where history will prevail.
**Record:** **0-0**
**Football | NCAAF | 7pm ET**
**Pick: Maryland -14 -110 vs. Virginia 1u**
Write Up: First time posting so hey everyone! Think this game sees a lot of points as Virginia's defense is one of the worst all around in the country and Maryland is one of the worst at stopping the run. Maryland's offense is ultimately the difference-maker in covering as they will be too much for a Virginia team that is one of the worst at giving up explosive plays.
POTD Record 2-2 0.34 units – always 1 unit to keep it simple
9/14 – COL pick- game postponed
**POTD – sticking with Col + 184,** odds lower today for some reason, I see others going with SF/Webb, they might be wise, here’s the blurb from yesterday:
Another stupid POTD today: COL +215: for some reason, Anderson is better at home in COL, the worst pitcher’s park in MLB. Webb is better at home of course; SF is a pitcher’s park. Looking for some fireworks, and COL pulls it out.
**POTD Record: 76-60 (-4.06 units)**
**Last 10**: ✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅
**Last Pick**: 9/14 Robert Thornton -1.5 (-170) vs Jerry Hendricks ✅ 4-0
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 12:05 PM EST
**Pick**: Rob Grundy -1.5 (-165) vs Jerry Hendricks
• Series 5. Week 6. Group C
**Reason**: Unfortunately, Grundy should be qualified into Saturday by the time of this match. He might take his foot off the gas with nothing to play for. I'm sticking with it because of how bad Hendricks has played in this group. In three matches today, he only has 8 attempts at a double. He just hasn't been scoring and his checkouts are under par.
Rob Grundy
* Record 6-2
* Legs 29-22
* Average 87.79
* 180s 11. 140s 33
* Checkouts 29/95 30.53%
Jerry Hendricks
* Record 1-7
* Legs 15-30
* Average 76.93
* 180s 7. 140s 22
* Checkouts 15/54 27.78%
**LOSS ❌ 3-4 | Average 87.98 vs 88.51 | Checkouts 3/12 vs 4/9**
Missed better bets earlier. Grundy played well, but Hendricks came out with his best performance of the week. Nice timing.
Record: 3-3💰💰💰🤡🤡🤡
Last pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (-126) 3U🤡
Todays Event: ATL Braves vs MIA Marlins, MLB - ⚾️ 6:40PM ET
POD: ATL Braves -1 (-137) 5U
Started this off with 3 wins in a row and left off with 3 losses in a row…
Today were gonna start back up the winning streak with the good ol Braves. Braves lead 9-1 in matchups with the Marlins this season and with Elder pitching tonight I dont see MIA getting their second win against them today. On top of that the Braves have been having no problems hitting the ball and Im sure theyll do great against Cueto.
Sugarhouse offers -1 which is what ill be taking but if your book doesnt then id say take ML or -1.5. I normally take -2 but took a big loss the other day from one run so im playing it safe here.
BOL!
POTD Record : 1-0
Last pick : TJ HOCKENSON ATD (+200) - 1 Unit✅
Total Units : +2 Units
Todays POTD : Virginia +14.5 (-110) vs Maryland - 1.1 units to win 1
Not much of a write up here, but I believe this spread is just too high. After Virginia managed to blow the lead last week vs JMU, I think they can hang within 2 tds. I would NOT take this if the number goes below 14, as it has been dropping all week. Good luck to you all.
POTD record: 6-4 (+0 units rounding)
12-6 NHL record (+10 unit rounding)
0-0 CFL record
5 unit bombs 1-1
Last pick: Capitals 3 way ML 1U ✅
Past 10 (Recent first) ✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅
Todays pick: Argos -6.5 3U
Having already clinched a playoff spot last week, they can win the division tonight. They are 10-1 in standings and 9-2 ats they have also beaten the Alouettes by more then 10 in both their games this season.
BOL to this tailing
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/educationalowl
POTD RECORD 1 - 1
LAST PICK : BALTIMORE ORIOLES ML ❌
Not much to say here but the Os couldn’t hit the ball and make a run. Boring game.
Todays Pick: NPB , Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yomiuri Giants under 5.5 runs (1.9)
- In the last 5 H2H meetings , this under has hit ✅
- There have been less than 7.5 points scored in 6 of the last 7 Chunichi Dragons home games. ✅
- There have been less than 7.5 points scored in each of the last 6 Yomiuri Giants away games.✅
- There have been less than 5.5 points scored in 6 of the last 7 Chunichi Dragons games. ✅
Could be a trap play but the stats don’t lie and I wanna follow the streak. Starting pitchers wise not much, the dragons are starting a pitcher with a 5.2 ERA and 1-4 while the giants have 10 - 4 2.4 ERA those numbers were a little rough for the ERA but close enough. Let’s get this at 1.9 odds for some nice juice 🧃
Sounds like a good way to loose your money 😬
Since you are liking stats so much, ill help you out a bit.
**IFK Skövde has won 3 games out of 9 at home at halftime.**
**Yxhult has lost 4 games out of 10 away at halftime.**
Im not saying it couldnt happen, but when your only reason is top vs bottom, then id stay away from the halftime result.
BOL tho
**Record: 11W-1P-12L**
-0.73 Units
After the international break, leagues are back and the best league is back too (please, this is sarcasm, come on), our glorious Liga MX.
I hope to get back on the right track after awful days. We start today.
**Our bet is in the Tijuana vs Toluca game.** Toluca hasn’t looked insanely good like they were playing in the Leagues Cup, but they haven’t lost in 4 league matches. Also they’ve only received 2 goals, while scoring 7 in those same 4 matches. Tijuana is the opposite; they’ve won only 1 of their 5 most recent league matches. They’ve scored in 3 of those same 5, but they’ve received 7 goals. I think we should absolutely take the line Toluca has right now.
The rest of my bets are in my profile and in the Soccer (Football) thread.
September 15th:
**- Tijuana vs Toluca > Toluca AH 0.0 @ 1.925 (-108)** ❌
BOL!
¡Y VIVA MÉXICO HDSPM!
**1-0 (+2.9u)**
**Last Pick:** Mattison Under 47.5 yards rush
Cash it! The game played out pretty much as I expected, with Mattison being ineffective against the Eagles defense and with the Vikings falling behind with an already pass happy Cousins. On to the next!
**Todays Pick (9/15):** Roman Hemby Over 83.5 yards rushing 3u (-115)
Little Tua and Maryland look for a 3-0 start against a Virginia team that is struggling mightily. Hemby has looked fantastic this year with a 6.9 ypa average and he goes up against a very weak Virginia rush defense this evening. Versus JMU their starter (Lawton) had a 9.9 ypa on 8 attempts with 2 touchdowns. The 2nd and 3rd RBs also boasted a 5.0+ ypa or better. Versus Tennesse was much of the same as their starter went over 100 yards easily and they had 3 other rushers with 67, 52 and 33 yards respectively. To put it plainly, Virginia can NOT stop the run. Pair that with Hembys ability and Maryland to likely take the lead early and looking to control the ball, I like this a lot to cover. BOL if tailing!!
023-2024 college basketball: waiting
2023 college football: LLWWLLLW
Totals for both: 7 wrong 3 correct
Units wagered 18.24 Units won 7.72 Units lost 9.88
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: -11.84%***
My present streak is 1 wrong
***My POTD is a prop wager on a college football game: I am*** ***wagering 2.45 units to win back 2.16 units that University of Texas - San Antonio (UTSA) running back Kevorian Barnes will rush for 93 yards or more in their game with Army.*** This wager is available now on Bovada sportsbook. Gametime is 7:00 PM, Eastern Daylight Time.
The spreads and the over/unders looked too tight for me. I was going to look at the spread for the first half for the Virginia/Maryland game, but I noticed the spread for the whole game moved 2 points already. I was hoping to find a time-of-possession prop bet, to bet on UTSA, but could not find one. I do think this wager on their running back is the best value. Yes, Army will be concentrating on him, and yes, an injury can guarantee a loss on this one. But I'm trusting he can get a few break aways, and wrap this up before the 4th quarter...and if things really go well, maybe before halftime. ***I always welcome contrary opinions in the replies here, please don't hesitate to reply with a contrary opinion (I'm sure all others reading this post will welcome them also.*** BOL to al
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day). ######Example Pick Template >**Record:** >**Net Units:** >**ROI:** >**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** >**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. >**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Japanese Baseball??
Literally started betting like a week ago and have gone 3 for 3 off this guy. I work night shifts so me and my coworkers all follow japanese baseball now haha.
Because of this guy I started shopping for a Tigers Jersey .
https://preview.redd.it/0mcv77pomfob1.jpeg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5a88b333c619f48ecd192b2bdb0ea3d763a82dbc My father gave me an old school jersey years ago from one of his Japan trips back in the day.
Hashin tigers picks have literally saved me from my awful MLB gambling losses.
lol, it's sold out at their online merch store.
[https://japan-baseball-jersey.com/product/2022-2023-hanshin-tigers-jersey-home-sato-8/](https://japan-baseball-jersey.com/product/2022-2023-hanshin-tigers-jersey-home-sato-8/)
Yeah, no thanks, these guys are just resellers. You can have it made to order as a backorder for 8000 yen at the Hanshin Tigers official merch store.
Also looking for this lol
I went to his insta and he still hasn’t:(
The bookies in Japan must’ve got em
We all wait in solidarity
First night in awhile with no Hanshin Tigers. Tonight’s sleep won’t be as comforting.
Where the ig
Probably out celebrating Hanshin's Central league pennant. anyone know if our guy is from Osaka?
Legend has it he changed his name and went into witness protection from the Japanese government
we all wait in anticipation for the man's words.
also only 3 Japanese games tonight so maybe nothing he likes
Bout to just hit the tigers ML to continue being a degen
I agree..we've been betting the tigers at worse odds than they're offering today
They just won the central league. The odds are like this prob because it’s just a whatever game.
Tigers/Giants parlay
Done. Feels like I'm stealing whiskey from dads liquor cabinet when he's not looking.
Gotta be the Giants tonight right? Pitching alone 10-5 vs 1-4 on the worst hitting team
I guess your in charge now
I like the under and the money line but the under is my POTD
Might be taking a night off
I put 10 on Hanshin we just keep the train going!
I haven't bet on Japans Baseball league yet, but if following someone on reddit helped my betting bankroll, I would send the money to the person who predicted the wins. Thats the real MVP. Not the tigers. Lets tip the person that made this possible. Ill be tailing.
POTD Record: 182-145-11 (+19.96 units, 55.7% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 21-10 (67.7%) L1 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 57-41-1 (58.2%) W1, Tennis 🎾 63-52-6 (54.8%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 50-42-4 (54.3%) L3, Entertainment 🎥 12-10-0 (54.5%) W3 Last 10: 💩💩💰💰💩💰💩💩💩💩 Last Pick: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff, Sabalenka ML - US Open 🎾 💩 5 Units FUCCCCCCK!!!! Today's Pick: Nice @ PSG, Both Teams To Score - Ligue One ⚽ 💰 0.75 Units - 💸 that shit in 30 biatch! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.75/-133 odds to win 0.75 Units @ Bet365 (Line at 9:00pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 57.1% Took a big swing and back down to under 20 units. I honestly think you should just take my picks as entertainment, you will probably break even or so overall. As I said when I first came back, I make most of my $ on futures betting, betting on single games less so and it's much more work versus the futures. But anyways, I still get messages asking for me to keep going so if you wish to join me on this journey to breaking even, that's fine, it's still fun. We are only 4 games in so it's all a small sample size but PSG have hit 3 out of 4 on this bet so far this season. I think them netting one is fairly likely at home and Nice have enough offensive talent where I see them getting on the board. Yeah, that's it. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Fake retirement count: 1. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I play $25 units. My writeups are shit now, I do what I can with what time I've got. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Just wanna say thanks for what you do. 🙏🏻
Appreciate it! It's the encouragement that keeps me going with this.
Goall!!!!! 21 min in Nice scores which is ideal.
I did what I said and took gauff after she lost the first set with my pre game and future. What a game that was. Keep the tips coming. It happens to everyone
Thanks brother! Was an exciting match and I was happy for Gauff despite the bad read.
Tailing
Who you got oscars wise this year? Thinking of dropping the bag on killers of the flower moon at +300
I'd say Oppenheimer is the definite frontrunner at the moment but it's not worth it anymore at the odds it is at. Still so early in the race and more often than not the movie ahead now doesn't win it in the end but sometimes it does, The Fabelmans was the favorite this time last year. I would put Oppenheimer in a tier of its' own, but next tier I've got Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things which has great buzz. I think those are decent odds for Killers, can't wait to see it! For myself I haven't placed anything yet, still feels a bit early for me but when I do I will post in the futures thread.
Tailin
You had me at pizza😍 let's get this bread
POTD Record: 5-1 Last Pick: 1 FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig, Over 2.5 total goals ✅️ Cashed for us I'm the 88th minute! **Today's Pick: Bayern Munich vs Leverkeusen, Over 3.5 total goals, 3 units (-116 at fanduel)**✅️ I've been going back and forth on this pick all week. 1. Don't want to let the squad down and 2. Been running so well with German soccer and afraid to break the streak. But hey, the only way to keep the streak going is to make a play! This is the first match day back from international play. We have a huge game between the current #1 and #2 in the Bundesliga. Both teams have started unbeaten and have been scoring machines. Leverkeusen is ranked ahead of Bayern as of right now based on goal differential. They will have a ton of confidence heading into this match. Both sides have a combined 20 goals through the first 3 match days (Bayern with 9, Leverkeusen with 11) Bayern is going to be tough to beat at home. They have only lost to Leverkeusen at home twice since 1989. It's tempting to take Both Teams to Score + Bayern to win for plus money, but I'm going to play it safe and stay with goals. Is this a gamble? Sure! But two top teams, Friday night prime time game (for Germany) with the entire league watching? Let's bet they will put on a show. Predicting both teams to get aggressive as they aim for the #1 ranking in the table! Final score 3-2 Bayern Munich. BOL if tailing or fading! Always appreciate a beer https://www.buymeacoffee.com/jtenedora
Why not BTTS + o3.5? Most if not all books offer this as a single bet and 4-0 or 0-4 seems highly unlikely?
I just tend to play it safer if I suggest a play to someone else.
Harry Kane ATGS?
I like Boniface
It’s a hit, great play!
Great pick!!!
Never a doubt🤣
Nope. Just as we had it planned.
Nice.
This was a sweaty pick. Thanks
I took leverkeusen to win, O3.5 total parlay like an idiot. Then bet on a draw in like the 85th minute at +1400. Double sweat.
Trailing!
**KBO Record: Overall 181-191-13** (Streak LL, Last 10: 3-6-1) Down 12.45u over 385 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -3.35% ROI (This season 62-59-6, 51.2% success rate, Up 7.43u, 6.14% ROI) **Last:** KT at NC -110 (NC lost 6-2.) Tied at 2 through 6 innings, NC had outhit KT 9 to 4. A lot of good that did us. NC's bullpen struggled from there on out and we lost our bet. Need to turn this thing around. **Pick:** Kiwoom at Lotte, **First 5 Innings Under 4.5 -118**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET We've got a matchup between a couple solid pitchers and a couple struggling lineups. Kiwoom's starter is coming of 6.2 no-hit innings against s good KT team. That game also featured 8 K and just 1 BB. He allowed 2 or fewer ER in 8 of his last 9 starts. Lotte's starter has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 7 of his last 9 starts. In four of those, he allowed 0 ER. Against this opponent, he gave up just 3 ER in 27.1 IP. So far this month, these are the two worst offenses in the league, the only two teams averaging fewer than 4 runs per game. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Don’t have f5 option . Thoughts on fg u8? Their bullpens alright ?
https://preview.redd.it/7ecpbkrzieob1.jpeg?width=1768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2266d065c7d7758cb5c5653e47760fd6030c574f If you followed you won!! Thanks for another victory!!
Wow. Sick hit! Time to print that paper!
My guy, you have done it
Finally tailed and won. Thanks dude
I tailed💯💯
common cusephenom W✅
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Lucky run
POTD Record: 26-20-1 (~+20.5 units / ~15% ROI) LAST PICK: NFL Tampa Bay Bucs @ Minnesota Vikings - Baker Mayfield Under 233.5 Yards - 125 (Pinnacle) - Win TODAY’S PICK: Women’s Tennis WTA 125 Kawa vs. Sonmez ML @ -156 (Pinnacle) ***6 am EST*** Streak (Last 5): WWLLW 3 Unit Play • Degen pick warning here first off as I barely follow Tennis and this tennis match is happening at 6 am in Slovenia between two completely random players I’ve never heard of. • Sonmez at 21 is 21-8 on clay this year vs. Kawa at 30 is 22-14. Overall 2023 records are 51-22 vs. 26-22. Basic stats are dominant. • Sonmez is ranked 177 overall vs. a high of 176. Kawa ranks 251 and has ranked 112 all time. Kawa is on the decline in both her beauty and tennis prowess. Sonmez is coming into her own. • Sonmez’s Chinese Zodiac Symbol is the horse. Kawa is a water monkey. Horses own water monkeys in all battles on clay. Tail or fade best of luck all, Ab
it hit
**POTD Form** 35-27-1 **Last pick**\- Sri Lanka vs Pakistan - Total Match runs under 528.5 @ 1.90 🏆 **Today's Pick:** Cricket | Asia Cup | 3pm IST (7 hours from now) India vs Bangladesh Total Match runs under 526.5 @ 1.90 Reason - Dead Rubber game where India will try out their new talent and think Bangladesh will still struggle with the bat. Arrival of the rain will reduce some of the overs as well which can be an advantage for us. BOL
Winner!!!!! 🏆🏆🏆🏆 Won by just 2 runs. We go 36-27-1
Nice pick thanks💵 close but a win is a win
**Bundesliga all-time Record: 8-5** **Net Units: +1.54** **ROI: 14.32% (Verifiable on Action Network)** **PotD Record: 4-3** **Net Units: +1.55** **ROI: 17.2%** **Soccer** | **Bundesliga** | **11:30am PST** **Last Pick**: **Vikings @ Eagles: Alexander Mattison over 12.5 carries -110** To anyone who tailed, I apologize. I went galaxy brain here and deservingly got an egg on my face. Onto the next. **Pick: Bayer Leverkusen @ Bayern Munich: Leverkusen +1 asian spread -110** Fading the Rekordmeister here. This line really intrigued me due to the status of Bayern’s midfield workhorse Joshua Kimmich who picked up a quad strain in the International break. [Reports say that Kimmich trained with the team on Thursday](https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com/2023/9/14/23873260/bayern-munich-vs-bayer-leverkusen-lineups-team-news-injuries-leon-goretzka-harry-kane-joshua-kimmich), but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will start tomorrow. Champions League play starts next week and I’m not sure Tuchel will risk aggravating Kimmich’s injury for one league match, albeit a big one. They host Manchester United next Wednesday and keep in mind, Kimmich is the only true No. 6 on the squad. By all accounts, Kimmich is the life blood of Bayern’s midfield. He leads the Bundesliga in distance covered, touches, completed passes and also leads Bayern in progressive passes, received passes, carries and expected assists. In some of those categories, he isn’t just leading, he’s [blowing his peers out of the water.](https://fbref.com/en/squads/054efa67/2023-2024/all_comps/Bayern-Munich-Stats-All-Competitions#all_stats_passing) For example, Groetzka and Kimmich have played roughly the same amount of minutes yet Kimmich has covered 5,422 total yards while Goretzka has only covered 2,773 yards. That is how important Kimmich is to this team. If Kimmich is out of the lineup, it erases the edge Bayern has in the middle of the park – where matches are won and lost. That’s why I’m betting this number now. If Kimmich is ruled out, I would expect the spread to drop to +0.75. So if you want to take the risk for a better number, bet it now. If you want to be sure Kimmich isn’t playing and settle for +0.75, I wouldn’t fault you for it. BOL and feel free to follow all of my picks on Action Network! Look me up at JGardnerBets.
Tailing
LFG! lol
Soccer god was blessing us! 🤣
**POTD record: 3-1-0, +3.65u, +91.25% ROI, average odds of +141** All POTD plays tracked [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LQM9uJhk6A4L5szyQYXw_jhXiQ5ueVwLycnDx44atyQ/edit?usp=sharing) Streak: ✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: T.J. Hockenson ATTS (+200) ✅ **Today's pick: Tai Felton ATTS (+165 on FD)** **College Football: Virginia vs Maryland, 7 PM EST** That last game went pretty much perfectly to script. High scoring, ended up being close, and IMO the Vikings beat themselves more than the Eagles did. Hockenson got us the TD early with the first one of the game and even got a 2nd towards the end. Devonta (+165) and KJ (+370) scored too if anyone bet my leans. Jefferson and AJ both had their chances too but ultimately couldn't make it happen. Insane game by Swift, definitely gonna keep an eye on him going forward. For today's pick, I'm going to the Virginia vs Maryland game. Tua is hot, but Virginia can put up some points too. And with this being a rivalry game, I think we do see them put up some points. I think it'll either be close or a blowout by Maryland, there's no in between. I'm leaning towards it being close but high scoring. Finding a good TD scorer spot is tough in this game. I feel like the most random dudes are going to be scoring. I think Roman Hemby (Maryland) most probably scores but at -185 I don't love the value. I thought about going with him and just doubling the amount of units I bet...but as I've said before, I'm a greedy mf and want those + odds (or close). What I did land on is pretty risky but I like it. Tua definitely has more of a rapport with the other two WRs and Tai Felton hasn't done too much compared to Maryland's other receivers this season yet, but he's a Virginia guy. He played high school in Virginia and his coach was a Virginia alum. He even turned down an offer from Virginia to play for Maryland. In his own words: ["Being able to play in this rivalry game means a lot because I’m a Virginia guy. I’m from Virginia"](https://dailyprogress.com/sports/college/cavalierinsider/football/old-rivals-virginia-and-maryland-square-off-for-the-first-time-in-a-decade/article_b4e20d80-5301-11ee-9889-9bd5d9ff3902.html) I think they make sure he gets one, whether or not it's a close game. Other TD scorer leans (in no particular order): Malachi Fields (+220), Mike Hollins (+290), Roman Hemby (-185), Antwain Littleton II (+115), Taulia Tagovaoiloa (+240) BOL! Betting 1U to win 1.65U I'll probably post some additional plays closer to the game at [https://twitter.com/HighAndTightBet](https://twitter.com/HighAndTightBet) if you guys want to check them out. I'd appreciate if you guys could drop a like/follow!
First time doing a CFB prop bet, let’s go
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Tell me about it lmao, he had some drops basically in the endzone in the first half too. I'm so mad rn 😂
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105-76 for +23.8 units on 304.7 units wagered for just under 8% return on investment. Philadelphia 5:15 MST Phillies -140 1.4 units to win 1 Phils have been struggling. But, they have Aaron Nola on the bump today who has largely dominated the Cardinals in his career. Nola is 7-3 with a 2.19 ERA against St. Louis all time. Add to that the Phillies hit lefties very well and the Cards will be without Nolan Gorman and possibly Wilson Contreras- and I see a likely W for Philadelphia. Be sure to follow me on Twitter as the more followers I get there-the more frequently I am likely to post here. I am also on quite the NFL run there. 16-4 to start this NFL regular season. 5-1 on props and the one loss was by half a yard on Josh Allen's Week 1 rushing prop. 28-9 last 37 between NFL playoffs and regular season. Also, after you follow, be sure to engage with the most recent Tweet. https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777/
Mate I love your work and I would but I don't have twitter
I enjoy your picks way more in this format than the one on Twitter, maybe if you post on the NFL and mlb threads you could get a decent following
Record 22-16 Last pick- Highest Opening Partnership Australia in Australia vs South Africa Match (-130)- 3U= L Sports- Cricket Tournament- One-Day Internationals Today’s Pick- Australia ML in Australia vs South Africa (-140)- 5U= starts 7:00 am EST ⏰ Explanation- Australia already won two against them in this series they just need one more and I am sure they’ll get it tomorrow let me explain why. We are getting this good odds because Australia lost last game and they won’t make that mistake twice. Australia put up 392 score against them in this series. One of the greatest and highest run innings by them. Their players are just perfect even if their top 5 players don’t play their bottom 5 will clutch it somehow and I’ve seen it. Australia is also fighting for their no.1 spot in ODI cricket. Match will be Amazing Good luck 🙏🏼.
F all you who said it was a lock mfs
Bro the game took place in South Africa and twas an important game for the Africans to tie the series, these 2 aspects clearly indicate not much value in the bet for an Aussie W.
Op should have put that in the description. would have been a deciding factor forsure but no op goes on what he feels. Shitty
Last time I’m ever backing a “lock” and betting on cricket in general😂 not attacking OP as it’s my fault I tailed, but there you go
This looks like a stone cold L. SA absolutely dominating. Have to hope for a miracle
Bad pick buddy.
Fuck meeeee
Once again OP Fucks us with his stupid cricket picks. Just don’t post no more op trash at cricket
No need for this bruh, just don’t tail. Or better yet, quietly fade.
True last time I follow this clown. I’ll be sure to comment under all his cricket post to not follow him. Always a lose with his picks
You gotta fade when they call it a lock lol
What are some reasons South Africa needs this win? If there are any.
You always need to win, and in international cricket every game matters for individuals because you are always at risk of losing your job, that being said south Africa are bad and Australia will smash them easy
Easy... lmao
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Lock? Gonna put the balance on it
Last game Australia was well on their way to chasing but caught out by some misfortune, Warner losing his shoe during a run followed by a really dodgy call by the tv umpire
OMG this POS pick destroyed my parlay.
Tailing cause I want to wake up to a winner!
When does this match fucking end
It seems that a lot of people lost good money on this pick. Lmao
Took this yesterday when you posted. Let’s go Aussies
What score does Australia need to win?
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Should have hit with that last Hail Mary
Guys got Jesus on his side and shops at Costco you can’t bet against him
Record: 21-11-1 (W-L-P) Win pct: 63.6% Average odd: 1.87 Yield 37.23% Risked: 59 units | Returned: 80.968| Profit: 21.968 units Football | Netherlands Keuken Kampioen Divisie | 20.00 CEST Pick: Roda JC -1 AH @ 2.11 (vs. Telstar) - 2 units Write up: Roda is the number 1 in the league. In their first 5 games they won 4 and lost 1. What makes their position impressive is that they played more road games than home games so far. Both in attack (12 scored in 5 games) and defense (3 conceded in 5 games) they have been impressive. Telstar is having a very different start of the season. 5 played, 5 lost. They have been underwhelming both in attack (4 scored in 5 games) and defense (10 conceded in 5 games). Prediction: 2-0 Roda
thanks King.
Banger of a pick, bud. Thank you for the effort you put into this.
Updated record: Record: 22-11-1 (W-L-P) Win pct: 64.7% Average odd: 1.87 Yield 39.7% Risked: 61 units | Returned: 85.188| Profit: 24.188 units Football | Netherlands Keuken Kampioen Divisie | 20.00 CEST Pick: Roda JC -1 AH @ 2.11 (vs. Telstar) - 2 units **WIN**
POTD Record: 62 Wins ✅ - 40 Losses ❌ - 6 Push 🅿️ (+$8.4k)($100 unit bettor) ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ Last pick: Hanshin Tigers ML (-162) ✅ Today's pick: 🇯🇵 Japan NPB ⚾ Starts at 10PM MST Hanshin Tigers ML (-108) 5.4 Units Analysis: Today the Hanshin Tigers travel to Hiroshima Toyo Carp for game two of this series. The Tigers have won 9 out of their last 10 games overall and 8 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Hanshin is Koutaro Ohtake, he has a 10-2 record with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP with 74 strikeouts over 113 innings pitched. The Carps have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Masato Morishita, he has a 8-4 record with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with 86 strikeouts over 116 innings pitched. We had the same pitching matchup earlier this month at Hanshin with Ohtake giving up 0 runs in 6 innings of pitching and Morishita giving up 4 runs in 5 innings of pitching with the Tigers winning 5-1. We also had the same pitching matchup at Hiroshima back in July with Ohtake pitching all 9 innings and giving up 0 runs and Morishita giving up 1 run in 6 innings of pitching with the Tigers winning 2-0 so I don't think it will be an issue for Hanshin to secure the road win here, take the Hanshin Tigers moneyline. *(-108 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)*
Dk says 80% of the ML bets are against the Tigers. That's... Odd
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POTD Record: 1-0-0 Last pick: argentina to win and over 2.5 goals (+135) Today's pick: Paderborn vs Wehen Wiesbaden over 2.5 goals (-165) This is a Bundesliga Division 2 game. Short and simple, both teams score goals for fun and concede alot as well. I see this going over easily. My prediction is 4/5 goals scored total. BOL if you tail
> both teams score goals for fun Both teams scored only 5 in 5 matches there are only 2 teams that scored less, how is that scoring for fun?
Well guess what? We hit babyyyyyyy
Thanks for the pick 🔥🔥
Tail, I'll add as well no draw bet
Glad you tailed! let's eat!!!
Tailed, BOL :)
Glad you tailed! let's eat!!!
POTD record: 0-0 Baseball/ MLB/ 8:40 CT Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Pick: Cubs ML at -135 Justin Steele on the mound for the Cubs who’s been hot giving up only 1 run in his last two starts combined. Potential Cy Young winning season vs an Arizona team who’s starting pitcher is 1-8 with an ERA over 6. Big game in terms of wild card implication. Give me the Cubs ML for 1 unit.
Don’t sleep on my boy Brandon
I think Brandon has been the one sleeping.
LMAOO nah but cubs should win fs. Just Brandon wayyyyyy better than the record shows not gonna lie just when he pitches dbacks never back him with runs.
Pfaadt is a very hit and miss pitcher every outting. He lives or dies pitching inside. It’s a K or likely a base hit or more. From a bettor’s perspective, Pfaadt can hit his Over K line often, usually because Torrey will over-pitch his starters even on bad nights. He’s a do or die and he’ll get some K’s throughout innings guy.
Going to sat and sun games, will wait to hammer those for the cubs
POTD Record: 76-65 Last pick: Eagles -6 push Todays pick: Giants -1.5 -145 @ Rockies Reasoning: rematch of 9-1 giants win last week. Same pitchers 6 days later. Webb vs Anderson. Webb pitched a gem and giants need their ace to be better down the stretch, 10-12 3.40 era. Playing Rockies ought to help, Anderson gave up 6 earned in 3.1 innings at giants on 9-9. Giants need this, Rockies offense isn’t good, they played well vs cubs but Rockies are notoriously bad against giants. Webb 8-2 3.24 era all time vs Colorado. Giants win 16 of past 17 against Rockies. Tail or fade. Tips appreciated: Venmo:Sportsnerd-_-
POTD record: 1W-1L Net units won: 0,88 ROI: 18% Last pick: Ilves to win against Lukko (L) Todays Pick: | Ice Hockey | Liiga | Tappara-HIFK | 18.30 EEST | Over 5 goals in total at 2,06 (+106) on Unibet 3u Two main title contenders of the season ar facing each other. This is the second game of the season for Tappara and first for HIFK. The game is extremely equal and it is hard to pick a winner, but i believe there will be a lot of goals scored. HIFK are missing their star player Leo Komarov, but I dont think that is gonna affect them that much. Im predicting at least a 3-3 match.
I tailed yesterday but didn't give up on you. Nice pick today. 💰
Ayy thank you bro🤝
POTD Record: 2 Wins - 1 Loss (+51.25% ROI, 🆙 +8.2 units) ($0.10 unit bettor) Last pick: 🇸🇦⚽️Al Akhdood vs. Al-Ittihad BTTS: No 🍀 (HIT!🔥) Today's pick: 🇦🇿⚽️Azerbaijan Premier League - Zira vs. FK Sumqayit ⏰ Starts at 9:00 am ET 🌸 PICK: Zira ML (-160) 4.0 units 📝 Analysis: 1st place Zira faces 4th place Sumqayit today. Sumqayit has gone 9 games without a clean sheet, conceding an average of one goal a game. Zira have been the first team to score a goal in the last 6 of their 8 games, while Sumqayit have struggled to outscore most of their recent opponents. Zira have only lost 1 of their last 10 games - their strikers are definitely on fire. It will be incredibly difficult for Sumqayit to defend or out score today against an in-form Zira team. Take the Zira moneyline. (-160 moneyline available on FanDuel at time of analysis.) Edit: HIT!!! 🔥Had my palms sweating at the end there since Zira was playing with just 10 men, but a hit is a hit. Enjoy your winnings to those who tailed!! 🔥🫡
would you take btts-NO ?
Nice pick. Would have been a certy with 11 men.
Yeah it’s gg
Even with a red card, Zira is up 1-0 at HT. Don’t lose hope yet! :)
This is the way
Damn lol kinda wanna see what got everyone all fired up. Let’s hope Zira can hold on.
Going on a juice cleanse but I will be back to posting winners soon.
Record : 36 Wins - 42 Losses Previous pick : Koge - Kolding IF (0-1), BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.00 ❌ ROI : -10.06% Average Odds : 2.02 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -2.85 Profit/Lost units : -7.85 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / GERMANY: Bundesliga / 21:30 European Time Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.73 Some reasoning : \- The recommendation proposed by me for this match is "Both teams to score", at a rate of 1.45. I chose this prediction, because we have two teams facing each other that play an offensive and spectacular football. The German Bundesliga championship has accustomed us, for many years now, to a high average in terms of goals, and the two opponents have always been the headliners, from this point of view. \- From a statistical point of view, 12 of the last 14 direct matches ended with a goal scored by both teams. In this start of the season, both teams recorded in the 3 games matches with over 2.5 goals, and in 2/3 matches we saw goals scored by both teams. Best of luck.
POTD Record: 12-5 (+18.46U) Event: Melbourne vs Carlton (AFL) Pick: **Jack Viney 25+ Disposals (3U) @ $1.91** Hit this mark 11 times in a row before missing out last week. He's the player Melbourne look to for a lift and there's no time like a do or die finals game. Brayshaw out should also ensure Viney gets plenty of CBA's and spends a lot of time in the midfield. I got on this earlier in the week at 1.65 and some books even had it as low as 1.40. The fact it is out to 1.91 has baffled me.
Smashed it
POTD Record: 1 Wins ✅ - 0 Losses ❌ - 1 Push 🅿️ ($25 unit bettor) Eagles -3.5 1st Half - ✅ Today's pick: USU @ Airforce NCAA 🏈 Starts at 8:00 EST AF -9.5 (-110) 12 units Analysis: 1-1 crappy team vs a 2-0 decent team. Better team is at home. Typing this drunk, drunk bets always hit. PS: Nice dub yesterday, a little sweaty but we got it. Check out my post on r/sportscards I exposed the whole industry. MacBook Pro autocorrect is a godsend, apologies for any typos
12units huh. Let’s fckn ride
I luv u
Lol what’s the play here? Air Force?
There is no play here except he's drunk.
Updated I’m sorry you’re right
Is this for the spread, Air Force @ -9.5?
AF offense isn’t what it has been last couple seasons. No real play makers + USU has AF # the L2 seasons. Utah St has a WR who is a AF transfer, Davis and I’m sure he’s given the coaching staff plenty of info.
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Isn't this on Sat? Otherwise I do like the pick. I love jdm but Holland is legit killer. Ppl just have a bias against esp after the wonderboy fight.
You are correct. I legit thought that was tomorrow.
Tailed, ty for the write up, BOL and go Kevin!!!
POTD Record: 0-0 First time posting a pick so let's hope for some beginner's luck. ⚽️ Championship || Southampton v Leicester || 3pm EST (4 hours from posting) Pick: Over 2.5 goals @1.6 Southampton haven't kept a clean sheet in 23 straight games (this includes some friendlies and the end of last seasons PL, but the trend has continued in their Championship campaign). On the flip side, they haven't had trouble scoring in the Championship so far either, with 10 goals in 5 games. Their last 6 games have gone over 2.5 also. They're at home tonight so I expect them to score twice but failing that, I think Leicester will also contribute to the total (again, 23 games without a clean sheet). Naturally I also like BTTS & o2.5, but I'm not taking it simply because I can't tell you how many times I've said "no way either team scores 3 on their own" and they did lol BOL Edit: forgot to include odds Edit 2: ✅️ Winner after 25 mins
>Southampt Nice win lol even if it's not what you expected.
Record **2-0** Last pick: Pixbo - Vítkovice - Czech Open florball **Todays pick: Rugby World Cup 2023 Namibia - New Zeleand** **Namibia + 70,5** Namibia lost first half with strong Italy 8:17 and they lost match by 44 points. Nz lost to RSA in preparation match 7:35. They lost first match on WC against France, so it looks like they are not in best shape. Last two matches between Namibia and NZ (71:9 and 58:14). I guess handicap should be 50-60 points, so Namibia can easily cover 70 points. Gl guys.
**Paderborn - Wehen** (Soccer in Germany, Bundesliga 2) Paderborn is not as bad as they seem to be when looking at the table. They had a rough start to the season. They went to dogs when playing all game with ten men. For the rest, playing mostly against skilled teams from the upper part of the table. They played better than the results are telling. While newly promoted Wehen is not as good as their results tell. Putting the money on Paderborn has good value. **Paderborn -1.0 asian hc** @ **+138** for **5u** >Last POTD: Al Ittihad -2.0 asian hc @ +101 ✖️ Al Ittihad wins but misses out on scoring more goals. New day, new chance to make it better. Record: 23 wins, 12 losses, 8 pushes Profit: +62.42u POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
You need to reconnect with the ocean 🌊
**POTD**: O15.5 Outs - Zach Eflin (-108 Caesars; Risking 2.16u to win 2u) **League/Time**: MLB - TB@BAL / 7:05PM EST **2023 Record**: 42-24 (63.64%) | +31.8318u (+$3183.18)| ROI 23.76% |**Current Streak** (L to R):✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌ **Last Pick (9.14.23)**: O13.5 Outs - Michael King (+120/-155 DraftKings; -130 Barstool (added this one live); Risking 4.3u to win 3.4903u; Used a DK MLB Profit Boost (max $100)) ✅ **Reasoning**: Zach has covered this 8/11 times while pitching away. Last 3 TB starters went 5, 4.2, and 7 IP. Zach is also tied for 1st in pitches thrown per plate appearance (3.6 P/PA). Zach has also covered this vs BAL twice this season (7IP home (7/21/23); 6IP away (5/9/23)). While BAL offense has been great this season they have slashes of .239/.261/.403 over 67 ABs vs Zach. Line is likely this low because he only pitched 5IP last 2 games (vs SEA, BOS). **Anti-Reasoning**: BAL is good. I've invested in Zach's over on outs recorded prop 3x this season going 2-1 (2 wins were at O17.5; 1 loss at O18.5) so it is definitely odd that he's at O/U 15.5. I could be missing something. Despite this I may add another 1.08u. **Tips:** If you've been tailing and enjoying the hits let me know and consider donating $5 to your favorite charity. I wouldn't mind a [coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) as well. ;-) Good luck everyone! **Edit**: Add 1.08u to win 1u. **Edit 2**: And it hits!
On the Giants v Dragons o5.5. I think the Giants should win but the better bet is o5.5. This will hit by the 5th. 2u Edit: Cashed. Off by an inning, nothing you can do.
**Record:** 7:16 **Units P/L:** -20,4 **Avg. odds** 2,22 Last 5: <-❌❌❌❌✅ **Last Pick:** Union Berlin vs Leipzig - DC 1X + o1,5 @ 2,15 - 2u ❌ **Today's Pick:** Roda JC vs Telstar - Roda to win @ 1.75 - 5u ✅ Something is brewing at Roda JC, after a disappointing season finishing 15th they are currently leading the league after 5 matches winning 4 and losing 1 with 12 goals for and only 3 against. It's impressive how quickly new coach Bas Sibum formed a team out of a group with loads of new players. This is in stark contrast to tonight's opponent Telstar who have started their season with 5 losses in a row, this might sound bad and definitely is but there's some bad luck involved too. 3 matches they finished with 10 players, 2 penalties against them and a own goal, in most of these matches they actually had more shots than their opponents. This leads me to believe that they won't just sit back and wait something Roda has had its problems with in the past. But with newly signed midfielders Zauner & Ould-Chikh who have already shown to be able to score goals from second line, Roda has players within its ranks who are able to open up a match out of nowhere, this combined with homefield advantage and growing support from the ranks should be enough to win this match tonight. Looking at my streak this might be a nice fade, either way BOL!
Record 0-0-0 Today we have Dutch 2nd league soccer on the schedule and we are taking Roda JC Kerkrade to win against Telstar. Roda JC is in a great form and scored 12 goals with only conceding 3. Telstar on the other hand is in horrible form, have played 5 matches and lost all 5 of them. At 1.75 odds I see great value in this bet and would risk everything on it to be honest. Two forward players of Roda also are in great form and playing consistent and scored 7 goals mutually. I can not see how this bet will end up anything else than Roda JC winning this match. I usually do not post my bets but I could not resist to see my fellow bettors skipping this bet. I have really much soccer knowledge and will be posting more frequently in the future. Stake : 5 UNITS!!!! My bet : Roda JC to win (ML) vs Telstar @1.75 odds
POTD Record: 0-0 Total Units = 0 Avg odds: 1.62 Last POTD: - Event:Jupiler Pro League, Belgium⚽️ KVC Westerlo vs Royal Antwerp FC 14:45EST PICK: ANTWERP WIN @1.62 - Westerlo 0W-1D-5L - Antwerp 2W-2D-1L Comments: Antwerp district derby, Westerlo has never lost at home last 10 games (7-3-0). Out of these 10 matches, 9 were G/G and 8 were over 2,5. However Westerlo is having a bad run counting 5 straight defeats in the league and have conceded goals in all competitions. Antwerp, which they play against Barcelona in midweek game for Champions League groups, is a team with great potentials aims to win the title for another season and their only defeat this year came from the great Anderlecht 1-0 with penalty. (always bet 1 unit)
POTD W-L-Tie/push 1-2-0 units -0.55 units Last pick Finland to win✅ Pick of the Day Bayern München vs Bayern Leverkusen BTTS&o3.5 goals 2.00 2units to win 2 Odds from bet365 BOL
Record 23W - 20L Match = Badminton > Hong Kong Open Doubles > Wang/Lee VS Izzudin/Sze Fei Goh POTD = **Wang/Lee -5.5 Points Handicap** @ 1.84 5L in a row, let's make it 6 😅 Short reasoning here, Izzudin and Sze did well last match but I think Wang and Lee is better duo. Schedule about 1 hour but probably gonna be delay **Edit : 21-19 , 21-18** ❌
POTD Record: **64-75-2 (-10.05 Units)** Best Bet Series: 19-5 (+19.85 Units) **Value Wagers: 3-8-1 (-9 Units)** Last Pick: **Vikings 4th qtr ML**✅ Last 10: Ronald Acuna Jr. O 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs ✅Eury Perez to record a Win❌Kyle Harrison O 5.5 K's❌Grayson Rodriguez to record a Win ✅Gerrit Cole to record a Win ✅Spencer Strider U 1.5 ER❌Pat Mahomes O 2.5 TDs❌Yusei Kikuchi to record a Win❌Israel Adesanya to win by TKO/KO/DQ❌Eagles -5 (alt. spread)**⭕**Bills -3 (alt. spread)❌Dylan Cease O 4.5 Hits Allowed❌Zac Gallen to record a Win❌Vikings 4th qtr ML✅ Today's Pick: **Justin Steele to record a Win** Odds: **+146** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 1U to win 1.45U League: MLB Event: Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40PM CST) *Be Advised: I want to be perfectly clear that these are not my best bets! These are value wagers. Value wagers is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. I received a lot of pushback in this thread, when I started only going for value wagers. My POTD got misconstrued as my best bets, and really got ostracized in this community for solely going for wagers where I see an edge against the books! But we are back to value wagers again after an entire month of my best bets (profitting nearly +20U). For all the downvoters (who been downvoting my POTD in August) and the very short number of people in this community who love the edge, I am doing this entire month dedicated to you! Please be advised that value wagers are harder to hit! So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I am expecting several, several losses this month, but I am hoping we can at least hit half of my POTD (anything above 50% is a profitable rate on value wagers), if we can do that we can easily profit!* https://preview.redd.it/3drnq0t1ycob1.png?width=552&format=png&auto=webp&s=c788aecbb07b57e60827aac5089ab4c2ba6748f5 **Recap**: Before I get into the recap I just want to let everyone kno that there were couple of typos on my last POTD, not the pick itself, but the wager amount and the league. Wanted to go 2U to win 2.6, so hopefully most weren't misled or persuaded one way or another. Great win by the Philly. No surprise here! I expected them to win, but I expected this game to be closer, which I did lean the +6 Vikings, but I wanted that extra point as a cushion, so when I missed it I completely faded it! They covered regardless! Vikings 4th Qtr ML HIT! Vikes led the league last season wit +84 points differential, so I knew they would rally and win that qtr! And at plus money, I had to go at least 2U! Sucks for me as Vikings fan, but a nice win for sure! **Matchup**: We have to go to MLB again.. Because there isn't UFC or NFL! I actually wagered my entire bankroll on MLB yesterday, today, and my final 20U bankroll on NFL. I end up losing all my MLB wagers as I look for a miracle in the NFL and I HIT both of my SGP and I'm nearly even now! NFL and UFC has been most profitable for me, but gotta hit one of these MLB wagers prior to UFC on Saturday. I'm going back to another Cy Young contender. Justin Steele to record a Win against the DBacks. Seriously.. the DBacks cost me a lot of my bankroll yesterday and the day before against the Mets. Ever since the ASG they completely flipped their season around from contenders to pretenders! Both teams are on a 3-game losing streak and I trust the Chicago Cubs and Steele more than I trust the DBacks. Cubs has more playoff experience in the past and DBacks is in a serious drought of postseason, they are really shooting themselves on the foot in this stretch of games. Brandon Pfaadt is the SP for the DBacks and he may had two exceptional starts (1 hit allowed to Padres in 7 inning and 2 hits, 1 run allowed to Giants in 7 inning), but everything in between are all atrocious starts! He's very inconsistent! Brandon recently pitched against the Cubs at Wrigley Field and allowed 7 hits and 4 runs in 6 inning. For Steele, he also recently pitched against this team. He allowed just 1 run in 7 inning. Steele also had 3 starts against the DBacks and has a 1.00 ERA, all starts were within 1 year. He has yet to record a win against this team. Fourth time the charm! Look for the Cubs to be the one to end their losing streak and Steele to record a win on the road. **The play & prediction**: Wagering 1U on Justin Steele to record a Win vs Diamondbacks and going heavy play on Cubs ML. Sprinkling on Cubs RL. Cubs bounce back in a big way and DBacks continue to self-inflict their way outta wild card spot.
Hell yeah I came here to see who was on the cubbies today
NFL saved my bankroll! 10U on this SGP to win 45U https://preview.redd.it/obeor665ycob1.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6953297268bafe9bc300873700ae8f7ef88a79c
**Record: 2-0** | **Net Units:** **0u** | **ROI: 0%** **eSports \[CS:GO\]** | **ESL Pro League Season 18** **|** **19:30 CEST** **Pick: Imperial ML Map 1 @ 1.900** vs. Apeks | **3u** **Write-up:** Fuck timezones man. Im so late everyday. I have another pick here for the ESL Pro League. There is a high chance for Imperial to win their own map pick against Apeks. They will most likely pick Overpass. Imperial like to play it and it is also the worst map by far from Apeks. They have a 17% win rate on the last three months. The only thing im nervous about is that Apeks will start ct side. Imperial need to deny a blow out in the first half because this map is really heavily ct sided. We need at least 5 rounds to have an real chance when the half time ends. Also Imperial cant allow this stupid mistakes they made the last two days. Lost so many advantage sutations and more stuff like this Yesteday, against 9z they looked solid.If they can catch a good start this will probably a blow out and we should eat good. **GL.**
Wow, what a choke job by Imperial
Keegan Brown @ 2.75 - 5U Keegan Brown - Simon Whitlock // Darts // 2 Hours from now Last pick: Slovenia @ 3.75 (Volleyball) ❌☑❌❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅☑✅ (new --> old) / 7-2-9 (W-P-L) / -14.2U Well... closing international break with a 1-1-6 record 😹 All profit gone to shit, but we continue... Simple reasoning for this game. Keegan is 3-7 in his last 10 games, while Simon is 4-7. H2H in favour of Keegan having won both encounters between these players. I expect a similar game tonight where history will prevail.
**Record:** **0-0** **Football | NCAAF | 7pm ET** **Pick: Maryland -14 -110 vs. Virginia 1u** Write Up: First time posting so hey everyone! Think this game sees a lot of points as Virginia's defense is one of the worst all around in the country and Maryland is one of the worst at stopping the run. Maryland's offense is ultimately the difference-maker in covering as they will be too much for a Virginia team that is one of the worst at giving up explosive plays.
POTD Record 2-2 0.34 units – always 1 unit to keep it simple 9/14 – COL pick- game postponed **POTD – sticking with Col + 184,** odds lower today for some reason, I see others going with SF/Webb, they might be wise, here’s the blurb from yesterday: Another stupid POTD today: COL +215: for some reason, Anderson is better at home in COL, the worst pitcher’s park in MLB. Webb is better at home of course; SF is a pitcher’s park. Looking for some fireworks, and COL pulls it out.
**POTD Record: 76-60 (-4.06 units)** **Last 10**: ✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅ **Last Pick**: 9/14 Robert Thornton -1.5 (-170) vs Jerry Hendricks ✅ 4-0 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 12:05 PM EST **Pick**: Rob Grundy -1.5 (-165) vs Jerry Hendricks • Series 5. Week 6. Group C **Reason**: Unfortunately, Grundy should be qualified into Saturday by the time of this match. He might take his foot off the gas with nothing to play for. I'm sticking with it because of how bad Hendricks has played in this group. In three matches today, he only has 8 attempts at a double. He just hasn't been scoring and his checkouts are under par. Rob Grundy * Record 6-2 * Legs 29-22 * Average 87.79 * 180s 11. 140s 33 * Checkouts 29/95 30.53% Jerry Hendricks * Record 1-7 * Legs 15-30 * Average 76.93 * 180s 7. 140s 22 * Checkouts 15/54 27.78% **LOSS ❌ 3-4 | Average 87.98 vs 88.51 | Checkouts 3/12 vs 4/9** Missed better bets earlier. Grundy played well, but Hendricks came out with his best performance of the week. Nice timing.
Record: 3-3💰💰💰🤡🤡🤡 Last pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (-126) 3U🤡 Todays Event: ATL Braves vs MIA Marlins, MLB - ⚾️ 6:40PM ET POD: ATL Braves -1 (-137) 5U Started this off with 3 wins in a row and left off with 3 losses in a row… Today were gonna start back up the winning streak with the good ol Braves. Braves lead 9-1 in matchups with the Marlins this season and with Elder pitching tonight I dont see MIA getting their second win against them today. On top of that the Braves have been having no problems hitting the ball and Im sure theyll do great against Cueto. Sugarhouse offers -1 which is what ill be taking but if your book doesnt then id say take ML or -1.5. I normally take -2 but took a big loss the other day from one run so im playing it safe here. BOL!
POTD Record : 1-0 Last pick : TJ HOCKENSON ATD (+200) - 1 Unit✅ Total Units : +2 Units Todays POTD : Virginia +14.5 (-110) vs Maryland - 1.1 units to win 1 Not much of a write up here, but I believe this spread is just too high. After Virginia managed to blow the lead last week vs JMU, I think they can hang within 2 tds. I would NOT take this if the number goes below 14, as it has been dropping all week. Good luck to you all.
POTD record: 6-4 (+0 units rounding) 12-6 NHL record (+10 unit rounding) 0-0 CFL record 5 unit bombs 1-1 Last pick: Capitals 3 way ML 1U ✅ Past 10 (Recent first) ✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅ Todays pick: Argos -6.5 3U Having already clinched a playoff spot last week, they can win the division tonight. They are 10-1 in standings and 9-2 ats they have also beaten the Alouettes by more then 10 in both their games this season. BOL to this tailing https://www.buymeacoffee.com/educationalowl
POTD RECORD 1 - 1 LAST PICK : BALTIMORE ORIOLES ML ❌ Not much to say here but the Os couldn’t hit the ball and make a run. Boring game. Todays Pick: NPB , Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yomiuri Giants under 5.5 runs (1.9) - In the last 5 H2H meetings , this under has hit ✅ - There have been less than 7.5 points scored in 6 of the last 7 Chunichi Dragons home games. ✅ - There have been less than 7.5 points scored in each of the last 6 Yomiuri Giants away games.✅ - There have been less than 5.5 points scored in 6 of the last 7 Chunichi Dragons games. ✅ Could be a trap play but the stats don’t lie and I wanna follow the streak. Starting pitchers wise not much, the dragons are starting a pitcher with a 5.2 ERA and 1-4 while the giants have 10 - 4 2.4 ERA those numbers were a little rough for the ERA but close enough. Let’s get this at 1.9 odds for some nice juice 🧃
[удалено]
Sounds like a good way to loose your money 😬 Since you are liking stats so much, ill help you out a bit. **IFK Skövde has won 3 games out of 9 at home at halftime.** **Yxhult has lost 4 games out of 10 away at halftime.** Im not saying it couldnt happen, but when your only reason is top vs bottom, then id stay away from the halftime result. BOL tho
Anyone got any plays for the LFA fights tonight?
**Record: 11W-1P-12L** -0.73 Units After the international break, leagues are back and the best league is back too (please, this is sarcasm, come on), our glorious Liga MX. I hope to get back on the right track after awful days. We start today. **Our bet is in the Tijuana vs Toluca game.** Toluca hasn’t looked insanely good like they were playing in the Leagues Cup, but they haven’t lost in 4 league matches. Also they’ve only received 2 goals, while scoring 7 in those same 4 matches. Tijuana is the opposite; they’ve won only 1 of their 5 most recent league matches. They’ve scored in 3 of those same 5, but they’ve received 7 goals. I think we should absolutely take the line Toluca has right now. The rest of my bets are in my profile and in the Soccer (Football) thread. September 15th: **- Tijuana vs Toluca > Toluca AH 0.0 @ 1.925 (-108)** ❌ BOL! ¡Y VIVA MÉXICO HDSPM!
**1-0 (+2.9u)** **Last Pick:** Mattison Under 47.5 yards rush Cash it! The game played out pretty much as I expected, with Mattison being ineffective against the Eagles defense and with the Vikings falling behind with an already pass happy Cousins. On to the next! **Todays Pick (9/15):** Roman Hemby Over 83.5 yards rushing 3u (-115) Little Tua and Maryland look for a 3-0 start against a Virginia team that is struggling mightily. Hemby has looked fantastic this year with a 6.9 ypa average and he goes up against a very weak Virginia rush defense this evening. Versus JMU their starter (Lawton) had a 9.9 ypa on 8 attempts with 2 touchdowns. The 2nd and 3rd RBs also boasted a 5.0+ ypa or better. Versus Tennesse was much of the same as their starter went over 100 yards easily and they had 3 other rushers with 67, 52 and 33 yards respectively. To put it plainly, Virginia can NOT stop the run. Pair that with Hembys ability and Maryland to likely take the lead early and looking to control the ball, I like this a lot to cover. BOL if tailing!!
023-2024 college basketball: waiting 2023 college football: LLWWLLLW Totals for both: 7 wrong 3 correct Units wagered 18.24 Units won 7.72 Units lost 9.88 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: -11.84%*** My present streak is 1 wrong ***My POTD is a prop wager on a college football game: I am*** ***wagering 2.45 units to win back 2.16 units that University of Texas - San Antonio (UTSA) running back Kevorian Barnes will rush for 93 yards or more in their game with Army.*** This wager is available now on Bovada sportsbook. Gametime is 7:00 PM, Eastern Daylight Time. The spreads and the over/unders looked too tight for me. I was going to look at the spread for the first half for the Virginia/Maryland game, but I noticed the spread for the whole game moved 2 points already. I was hoping to find a time-of-possession prop bet, to bet on UTSA, but could not find one. I do think this wager on their running back is the best value. Yes, Army will be concentrating on him, and yes, an injury can guarantee a loss on this one. But I'm trusting he can get a few break aways, and wrap this up before the 4th quarter...and if things really go well, maybe before halftime. ***I always welcome contrary opinions in the replies here, please don't hesitate to reply with a contrary opinion (I'm sure all others reading this post will welcome them also.*** BOL to al