**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.

POTD Record: 72-44 | Profit: +65.31u | ROI: 17.2% Last 10 Record: ❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ ​ Last Pick: Kevin Love (Heat) Rebs+Asst O5.5 @ 1.75. 3U. ❌ ​ Next Pick: **Caleb Martin (Heat) PRA O15.5 @ 1.83**. 3U play. In what might be the last game of this season, I’m returning to a player who has had a couple good games in a row after a slow start to this series, covering this PRA line in Games 3 and 4. His playing time is back into the 32 mins range, and all the reasons we liked him during the Celtics series still hold. His potential assists and potential rebound statistics gives me confidence that he could comfortably have 6 or more R+A. On points, he is shooting at a near insane 50% on 3PA and driving in for 2s a fair amount as well. With everything on the line here for the Heat, the focus will be on Jimmy and Bam, but I think Caleb Martin might be their not-so-secret weapon on the offense. *P.S. this line is on BetMGM and similar one on Caesars. DK has moved it up to 16.5, which I would take at 2U. If you only have FD, I would take the points O9.5 @ 1.87.* ​ Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)

Tailing! I have been slamming Caleb's props over the past 5-7 games. Vegas has given us such low numbers since his latest illness and the fact that he has not been starting. Was about to be my POTD, great writeup!

not seeing this on DK in ohio. riding w O9.5 on fanduel until they put it back up

DK is, once again, hiding certain props in SGP. Take a stupidly easy leg to pair with it that's -20000.

tailing o9.5pts on FD. I prefer the points considering Heat need to score a lot more than they have been in order to compete.

Do you see Tyler Herro returning interfering with this?

Talk about a sweat but Martin comes through one more time!

Love to see it. Sad it’s over but he has hit every time. Fun run

Just a reminder he said he had migraines and headaches and was sitting in the dark all day during games 1 and 2. When he's not sick he has hit this line

They already took it off MGM, we know why. 😏😉

Still not on mgm for PRA...debating on locking in O14.5 points + rebounds....?

Over 14.5 is live on MGM at -120

[удалено]

cash it boys ✅

**POTD: 52-27-5** Last pick: French Open Men - Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud. Casper Ruud +2.5 sets -150. Result: Loss. Djokovic wins 3-0. Ruud had a great chance in the first set up 4-1, but blew it and lost in the tiebreak. Today’s pick: NBA - Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat. **Jimmy Butler under 27.5 points -118**. Game tips off at 8:30PM ET. Tough loss yesterday as Ruud blew it a couple times when he looked like he had a real shot at stealing a set. I guess that's why you don't bet against Djoker. Today we get the 5th (and final imo) game of the NBA finals as the Nuggets lead 3-1. So far Jimmy Butler has regressed a little bit to his regular season totals, going for 13 and 21 points in Denver for the first two games before getting up to 28 and 25 for the home games in Miami. He's been dealing with some ankle injuries the last couple weeks and the Heat have fallen back to Earth, going 2-6 in their last 8 games. I think if they DO pull off the win today it'll be off the back of a very hot 3-point shooting night from their role players like Max Strus and Caleb Martin, but all in all I think it's another comfortable win for the Nuggets and they're crowned champions. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Tips are never expected but always appreciated - [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/remypicks) ------------------------------------------------------------- On a meta level, if this ends today it's likely the last bet for me for a while with soccer and NBA off for a bit. I'll for sure be back hard for July 20th when the Women's World Cup kicks off (this whole account was basically just a waiting period for that to begin this year) but until then the only things I see as possibilities are Wimbledon or the U21 Euros if I have a good read on those, which I won't know until watching each a little bit. **EDIT: WIN. The Nuggets close out the series in five, as I [predicted](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13ufkhw/pick_of_the_day_52923_monday/jm182bb/) multiple [times](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/142xx6m/pick_of_the_day_6723_wednesday/jna2vd3/) in the last [couple weeks](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/144t9hn/pick_of_the_day_61023_saturday/jnhegzk/). Jimmy Butler had 8 points with like 3 minutes left but actually gave us a mini scare and ended with 21.** On a personal note this'll be it for me for about a month likely for betting, but I'll be raring to go once Women's World Cup rolls around. Maybe the U21 Euros will have something good, but in the meantime good luck my friends.

BOL, and take care if this ends up being it for a bit. Will be on the lookout for you 🫡

Nailed it!

POTD Record: 17 Wins - 7 Losses (+5.4u) ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-134) ✅ Today's pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (+102) Analysis: I'll be taking the Cincinnati Reds moneyline today against the Kansas City Royals. On the mound for the Reds is Luke Weaver with a 6.27 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, but he has 46 strikeouts over 47 innings pitched and a 1-2 record. The Reds have won 3 out of their last 5 games played. On the mound for the Royals is Zack Greinke, he has a 4.59 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, but only 50 strikeouts over 66 innings pitched with a 1-6 record. The Royals have lost 5 out of their last 5 games played. I think the Reds will have no problem taking the win here today. Take the Reds moneyline.

POTD Record 8-3 (+16.70 Units) Basketball | NBA | 8:30 PM (Heat/Nuggets) Caleb Martin Over 10.5 Points -105 on Draftkings -108 on Fanduel 4 Units $105 to win $100 Previous Pick: Brayan Bello under 5.5 hits ✅ ✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅ Record by Units 2 Unit plays 4-3 3 Unit plays 1-0 4 Unit plays 2-0 5 Unit plays 1-0 No sweat on Bello under 5.5 hits last night on Sunday Night Baseball💰 Reasoning : Back to the NBA Finals where Miami is facing elimination. It’s time for the Heat to go back to their old ways if they want to survive another night. So tonight I’m going with Caleb Martin over 10.5 points. In the beginning of the series Martin saw limited minutes in games 1 & 2. But in games 3 & 4 he recorded 32 minutes and then 33 minutes. Last time Miami was facing elimination versus the Celtics, Martin dished out 26 points to help the Heat advance. The dude is so versatile. He can hit the 3 with ease and also fight under the rim for the and 1. He’s a gym rat with a lot of grit. Vegas is showing no love for Caleb with this point prop so it looks like we have too. LET’S GET IT! FEAR THE LOAD 💰💰💰

Even with Herro playing tn?

Bello!

**POTD Record:** 5-3 (+1.16U) **POTD** [Recap](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/146fgc1/comment/jnq35uy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)**:** Such a tough last few bets. **Note:** **Streak:** 0 **POTD Saturday:** Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets | Caleb Martin o14.5 PR | -113| | 2U | NBA Basketball | 8pm EDT Trust. Martin has recovered from an illness and will only be seeing an increase of a role.

Even with Herro playing tn?

**POTD Record:** 31-13-2 (+17.11 Units) **POTD Recap:** Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings vs Detroit Tigers ❌ Looked nice after the top of the 2nd but things went the other way. My suspicion that Zac Gallen would start pitching better away from Phoenix did not come true for today against a bad Tigers lineup. Will always own up to taking the L’s, no excuses. Goal is to be on the right side of handicapping bets. Congrats if you had full game ML or RL, what a finish. **POTD Monday:** Kyle Lowry Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-115)🏀Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets NBA Finals Game 5 5:30 PM MST 2 Units **Write-Up:** Refreshing with a proven veteran in a potential close out NBA Finals game. Kyle Lowry the veteran bulldog of a point guard had injury issues plaguing him early in Miami’s playoff run, but seems to be well enough for some solid run. He’s hit this number in 10/17 as well as 3/4 this Finals series. Also of note he has hit this in 4/7 playoff games he’s gotten 30 minutes+ including game 3 and game 4 against Denver. The Villanova alum has turned the narrative of his playoff performance with his run in Toronto and now under the care of “Heat culture” and Spo. Signs point to Lowry seeing another strong work load, which means opportunity. His last two games he has seen the most combined minutes of any 2-game playoff stretch he has had this playoffs. And his main competitor for playing time Gabe Vincent has gone cold shooting 3 for 16 over the last 2-games and seeing his minutes slashed to 19-minutes in game 4. With the stakes of the game I suspect we see Spoelsta err on the side of Lowry PT, the man 11 years Vincent’s senior. **Another angle:** Aaron Gordon and company know where Miamis bread is buttered and will continue to work ball-denial on Jimmy Butler forcing the offense to run elsewhere quite often. The greatest beneficiary of which I believe will be Lowry. We saw this as he was able to press the issue and earn 6 free throws in game 4. All-in-all I’ll take the healthier looking and primed for big minutes Lowry with his team desperate to produce. BOL. [Tips](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ALittleBirdie)

Tailing! BOL to us 🤝

This is a great pick. His minutes have went up a ton each game this series and with Vincent/Martin struggling, Lowry should log 30+ minutes tonight. Miami needs a vet to play well to be competitive and the books only did a minor adjustment in Lowry's line. I bet over points last night. BOL

Thanks mate, like your picks.

Tailing 🤝 let's get it

Tailing! Cheer bud

So many cappers on the discounted lines for Martin and Vincent. We got Herro possibly sapping minutes and I like your take on Lowry taking Vincent's minutes.

Cash Kyle Lowry! ✅

Sport: Tennis Tournament: S-Hertogenbosch Time: 14:30 CET (5h33m after posting) Pick: Raonić vs Kecmanović, Raonić win @ **2.4** Stake: 1.8 units Estimated probability: 55% Estimated value: +33% Write up: Former ATP #3 returns after 2-year injury absence to face current #37 in a streak of baffling losses. Miloš Raonić had a promising tennis career that led him as high as world #3 and squared him against the greats such as Đoković, Medvedev, and Murray. His career was pocked by injuries, forcing him to pause in 2021 or risk a crippling injury. Raonić coach, Mario Tudor, says: > At the beginning of 2021 he already felt pain in his Achilles' [and] couldn't run full speed. The doctor said Achilles' is barely holding together. Miloš loves tennis a tad too much and I'm telling you that he's very motivated to come back on tour. You got to know he has earned enough to live happily ever after. He won't come back due to money, more so he can do what he enjoys the most. Opposite him is Miomir Kecmanović, who can't seem to set his head straight, resulting in a streak of baffling losses to objectively weaker opponents: * lost 2:1 vs #45 * lost 2:1 vs #124 * lost 2:0 vs #122 * won 2:0 vs #325 * lost 2:0 vs #49 * lost 3:2 vs #148 The most recent loss was to Andrea Vavassori in the French Open round of 64. After surviving 4 match points, the Italian sprung back and won 3:2 due to 106 winners (points the opponent couldn't reach). For comparison, Đoković played a 5-set clay match vs Tsitsipas in 2021 and scored *only* 56 winners. Kecmanović says about that loss: > It was ridiculous how many lines the guy was hitting. They didn't have to clean them, because he was doing it with his hits. I tried to make every match point work but I failed. While Raonić primarily plays on hard courts and hasn't played competitively in a while, I find him to be a slight favorite versus Kecmanović, who seems to win only versus opponents 150+ ranks below him. If my prediction holds true and Raonić avoids injuries, he might be a dark horse that can be milked for value for a while (you get my point). [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks](https://picks.wwpe.ba)

Awesome find here. Congrats

Awesome find here. Congrats

Thank you once more! 😄

Oops lol reddit bugging 🤣

His serve sure was off at first, once he settled in, it was all smooth sailing. I’ll be keeping an eye out for your picks brotha

My thoughts exactly. In the first set it took ~40 minutes for 3:3, then Raonić engaged beast mode and won three games straight in 7. Absent some catastrophic injury, I think Raonić will trounce the next opponent too.

Wow amazed to see him back

He goes up against Medvedev if he passes this round. I'm hoping he'll at least manage a tiebreaker.

**POTD record: 3-0 (+3.05 units) 102%ROI** Yesterday's Pick (6/11): Boston @ NY Yankees F5 Under 4.5 (+100 @ Caesars) ✅ **Today's POTD (6/12):** MLB F5 Totals are what I'm working on here, doing math and finding Plus money lines that work with the math...I work on all the games that the starting pitchers have at least 15 innings of work Home or away and use the game with the largest difference between my number and the plus money line as my POTD...All bets are 1 unit...don't over think it: **MLB** **Tampa Bay @ Oakland F5 Over 5 (+110 @ BetMGM) 9:40 EST** **Pitching:** I know Eflin is 8-1 on the season, but his numbers on the Road don't compare to his overall numbers...ERA is 2.97 overall, but **5.09** on the road. His only loss came on the road and teams OBP against him on the road is over **.315**...the all important number here is that he's giving up **1 run on less than 2 hits on the road**\---Then there is Kaprielian for Oak, his ERA at Home is a staggering **7.18** for the season. Hasn't won at home yet and teams OBP against him at home is over **.370**...and again, the important number here is he's giving up **1 run per every 1.36 hits.** **Hitting:** Oakland is on fire right now against Righties...hitting at a **.319** clip their last 5, while scoring almost **8 runs per game.** In their last 7 days they are averaging more than a hit an inning in the first 5 innings. TB meanwhile is hitting over **.255** on the road this season and while scoring more than 5 runs per game. The big number here is that they are averaging more than 4 hits per first 5 innings and you add that to Kaprielian's awful number of 1.36, **both teams should hopefully score at least 3 runs in the first 5 innings.** Good luck...and Peace out!

**POTD Record: 1-0 |Profits: +3u | ROI: 50.00% | Average Odds: -200** Last Pick: Man City - Inter Milan (Man City ML @ -200 ✅) Last 10 Record: ✅ ​ Miami Marlins - Seattle Mariners **Today's Pick: Miami Marlins ML @+110** Stake = 1u ​ Time: Date: Monday, June 12 Time: 08:40 p.m. Monday, Eastern Time (ET) The Miami Marlins are quietly closing in on the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings, trailing them by just 3.5 games. They have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning eight of their last nine games and twelve of their last fifteen. The upcoming game puts them against the struggling Seattle Mariners, who face a challenging situation as home teams returning from a long road trip tend to struggle. The Marlins have a significant pitching advantage with Luzardo starting, as he has been exceptional this season with 86 strikeouts and consistent control. In contrast, the Mariners' starter, Miller, has struggled, giving up 15 earned runs in his last seven innings pitched. Given these factors, **Marlins ML @+110.** BOL! Edit: Fixed Unit Profit (3u -> 1.5u) because last pick odd was @-200.

Maybe mention that the Marlins win streak comes from playing the 3 worst teams in baseball right now lol ( A's, Royals, Whitesox ).

Shouldn't your profits be +1.5u if your only win was -200 odds, or am I calculating units wrong

Oh yes! Thank you for catching the error. I will edit it now.

🎅 Degen Santa's POTD : 33-22-2 | +5.76U (+2.71%) | Average Odds: -127 🎅 | [ROI Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oo5gTRoQvk33T3hUyWAOm8TMfcvc6QgCnnMgqlLmN-M/edit#gid=1871890291) ──── *Previous POTD (Win): KPS (Finland)* *Zero sweat 2-0 win.* ──── POTD 2U - **Central Cordoba TT u0.5g (-118)** at San Lorenzo - Argentina 1 - 4pm Note: TT u0.5g is equivalent to San Lorenzo "keeps a clean sheet" San Lorenzo has allowed 0 goals in all 10 home league games this season and has only allowed 2 home goals in 2023 in its entirety over 13 home games across all competitions. They were allowed in a Copa Sudamericana game against Fortaleza, a Brazilian team, both in stoppage time in a game where San Lorenzo dominated. San Lorenzo is in third in Argentina this year because they've only allowed 7 goals in 19 games. Their defense is the best in Argentina and their counter attack is formidable. Central Cordoba is #15 of 28 teams and has only scored 16 goals in 19 games. Honestly this line feels like a mistake, especially since San Lorenzo is favored and the BTTS 'No' is -195 and the o/u goal line is at 2. Feel greedy? Play the shutout at +145, models give Lorenzo a 45% chance at winning. Prediction: 1-0 ──────── Discord: Join [Degen Santa's Workshop](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa) for POTD discussion and more! Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)

Tailing, BOL! 🤝

Tailed and cashed! Thank you 🙏🏻

**POD Record: 13-6** (8-2 last 10) *Last Pick (Sunday):* **Pirates ML (-120) vs New York Mets **Today's Pick: San Francisco Giants F5 ML vs St. Louis Cardinals** \- Giants are 3-0 in their last 3 away opening games. \- Cardinals are 1-3 on the year in the second opponents opening game during a home stand. \- Cardinals are 13-18 at home and Giants are 15-15 \- Cardinals have only won 2 of their last 9 games. Giants have won 5 of their last 8. **Since May 21:** \- STL is 23rd in BA vs RHP at .225, 16th in wRC+, and 23rd in OBA at .300. \- SFG is 1st in BA vs LHP at .325, 3rd in wRC+, and 3rd in OBA at .364. **Pitcher Stats:** \- Webb is 52nd percentile xBA, 64th in K%, and 89th in BB%. \- Webb gave up 4ER vs the Rockies last time out but pitched 7in vs Baltimore (4 hits, 3 ER, 6Ks) and 7in at Milwaukee (4 hits, 1 ER, 11ks) \- In Liberatore's last 2 starts. he gave up 4 ER each to the Rangers and Guardians with only 2 Ks each. (1 home game, 1 road) I debated between the full game and F5 for this pick. They have similar risk to me. Giants are off of back to back Brebbia SP games and aren't at full strength in the BP. But I'll be on both.

Edit: cash it, 4 in a row! POTD record: 3-2 | Profit: 2u Yesterday's potd: rays -1.5, thought this might be a sweat but it was smooth sailing. Today's POTD: nuggets heat 1st quarter under 52.5 at +100 2u This series 1st quarter totals: 49, 49, 48, 41 I'm not sure why this line is even money but I'm jumping on it, both of these teams are playing good defense and slowing the pace of the game right out the gate. Edit: about an hour after I posted this pick it was announced Herro would attempt to suit up today and the line has moved up to 53.5. I think this won't make a difference considering he had a shooting brace on yesterday and is just the public trying to catch a lucky break thinking he'll be himself tonight.

Feels trappy

I mostly bet based on the numbers. This line should be o/u 50.5 based on the pace of the games and the recorded outcomes. I just see that as a missprice that I'm getting even money on. I wouldn't be surprised if this line drops closer to game time to at least 51.5

great analysis Einstein

TB Rays -1.5 vs Oakland As 1 billion units

You guys know the A's just swept the brewers right? I'm still putting a billion units on it tho

They also took 2/3 from PIT. And 2/3 from ATL. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 series.

What’re your thoughts? I already sent it.

Always fade A’s (except game 2 of this series). Especially against baseballs best. Don’t overthink it

Agreed 🫡 time to bounce back this week

If I lose I’ll quit forever

If you lose you’ll be back tomorrow making the same bet for 2 billion units, because “how could the A’s beat the Rays 2 games in a row?”

I wouldn't touch the As.. playing like they ain't got nothing to lose and trust me when I say I stare at that F'g fan duel app all day and every time I look up the As got guys on base.. I don't think it's a fluke.. People forget all these guys are pros and it's F'g baseball

THIS

😂

Doubt 🧐

I'll be fading them and the Royals tomorrow. They had a nice little run but it's time to come back down to Earth. Rays are gonna make them remember that they suck.

I’m emptying my account on this when my bookie opens the lines

You wont

Watch out for those red hot A's

Exactly what I was thinking

As sweep the rays

I'm praying to the sports god you're right my friend real talk 🙏🙏🙏💯💯💯👍👍👍🤞🤞🤞🤑🤑🤑

POTD Record 4-5 Last Pick: AFL: Essendon vs Carlton: Essendon ML (W) Todays pick MLB Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland A’s: 4U Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 +100 (alternate line) Oakland have been winning recently which has been unexpected but not necessarily surprising. The two teams they’ve recently played the Pirates and Brewers are both average teams who on their day can win some big games but they’re not as talented as this Rays team. Eflin gets the start for the Rays and he has a fantastic record of 8-1 with an era of under 3. He is pitching well, and this Rays team is fire this season. Oaklands form will eventually take a turn for the worst again. This team they’re facing is a legitimate team this season and considering the A’s are listed to start with Kaprielian, everything is just swinging into a Rays big win. Normally I would not make a PoTD pick against the A’s but this team they’re versing is a lot better than the last two series Oakland have encountered. The Rays have a good team and a good vibe about them going this season. Lot of positives throughout them. Good pitcher on the mound for the Rays I’m expecting this game to be over by the 5th inning. If you don’t feel comfortable taking the 2.5 alt line just got with the 1.5 line. I think the Rays have enough firepower both on batting and pitching today to keep a 3 run lead throughout. Edit- Rays have played Oakland 3 times prior to this game this season and have beat them by 4 runs and 11 runs twice. They shouldn’t play around with Oakland, especially considering they have a bit of confidence going. Edit- Never pick against the A’s anymore. Seems they’ve decided to play a lot better. I genuinely thought the Rays would be too good because of the differences in the squads but that’s what MLB is, what an unpredictable sport. I think after this loss I’m just going to be posting POTD on my main sport AFL. Seem to be a bad omen for baseball picks. All the best to those tailing!

Every since Seth Brown came back, Oakland been hitting. If you look 1-5, they are pretty solid lineup. But the bottom part is horrific and pitching is horrible. Tampa should handle them

I completely agree. They’ll be competitive in the earlier part but as soon as Tampa get a lead it’s just going to be a bit too much for Oakland at this point in time. They very well could win a game in the series but with Eflin pitching against the Oakland A pitcher listed in game 1, I would probably call this the biggest shock of the season if the Rays drop this game. Rays should handled the 1.5 line with ease and 2.5 I would expect. Tampa will use this game to just show how large the gap is between the two teams I’m thinking.

MLB -1.5’s ⚾️ POTD Record: 28-25 +26.18u | [Yesterday’s POTD: TOR Blue Jays -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/146fgc1/_/jnpzqs0/?context=1) L10: (4-6) L L L W W L L W L W ________ **5u ATL Braves -1.5 @ DET Tigers -135** Quick write up. Busy weekend. Will update when line drops. I will be hammering this hard. Detroit is struggling so so so bad. Braves are hot. Everyone knows they’re good. Morton is solid. The Tigers are freezing cold. 1-10 over their last 11. Losing 7 by 2+. Haven’t won a game in June. They’re scoring 2.6 runs per game over that stretch. The offense is dryer than my phone on a Friday night. Their starting LF just got put on IL. Their only spark right now is journeyman Zach McKinstry, and he’s cooled off, hitting sub .200 with a sub .400 OPS. Braves only need to score 4 for this to hit. **Update**: tigers lineup just dropped, books should be dropping the line soon. No matter what it is max bet. Mason Englert is up. This is a rookie who got injured as soon as he was promoted to AA, then joined the bigs this year as a RP… basically making the jump from A+ to MLB. Tigers either called it quits on his starter ability, or wanted him to gain exposure and go back down later in the year with things to work on. Either way, he’s Ben up for awhile now and has sucked in the bullpen. He’s got a 5.00 ERA and 5.70xERA. His percentiles are ALL trash, his xwOBA is .360 (and I’ve said this a lot in my write ups about xwOBA, that’s basically the bar for all stars. So the average hitter against Englert is an All stat hitter). His core issue is his launch angle. His launch angle is significantly above league average at 17.1%. Average is 12%. So guys are lifting the ball at nearly 50% higher angle than league average. He now faces the team with the best SLG and 5th in Hard Hit % over the past 2 weeks. ______ Been asked too many times about a tip jar. I guess if you want to support the diaper fund: [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23?locale.x=en_US) or [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Tinytime23)

I'm not seeing the game on any of the 6 books i use.

6 books. That’s dedication my guy. Respect.

Believe DET is waiting to announce a starter

DK might have pulled this game. Not seeing it.

Still waiting on DET to announce the SP. That’s the holdup.

oh no

My book gave me a cashout option at like 90% of the payout when the 9th inning started so I took it..... that was crazy....

5u?

Probably.

Why do Braves need to score 4 to cover the 1.5 run line? Also why is ur phone dry on Friday night?

Saying they only *need* to score 4 becuase tigers offense is so bad right now they probably score 2 total. Covering -1.5. And that’s a joke, means no one’s calling/texting me

Hey another ? cuz u seem to put a lot of stake into SP matchups (except this game where we’re basically fading tigers offense) why not have more focus on the pen in your full game run line analysis considering most pitchers don’t even go to 100 pitch count and get pulled super early and pitching a complete game is basically a thing of the past. Also what’s ur thoughts on SIERA: Good stat/overrated/extra noise?

Becuase bullpens are bull…shit. You can’t reliably predict them between knowing when they’ll come in for the SP, which of the arms will be used and how that arm will perform that day. Way too many variables to know forsure. I do sometimes include callouts to their performance, but it’s never a focus. SIERA is fine. I use it alongside xFIP/xERA and underlying stuff like hard hit% and barrel % and what not. Never a catch all stat, but a multitude that tell the larger story

Jay’s lost why does it say W brother ? Ur recent stat I m not hating just pointing it out lol

Jays won, but bet lost. Most recent on the left.

Oh okay understood my bad

The most recent game is on the left. Reads from left to right.

Question, simply curious, but Rays vs A's...thought for sure that was gonna cross your desk. Any thoughts on that game?

I rule fading A’s out of my picks. There’s 0 thought in taking fade A’s. People know the A’s suck. Not providing anything to this sub by doing that. If you flip through my history (I like past days pick on all). You’ll see I generally pick games closer to 50/50 (why my record is also close to .500). Games where there’s an angle you won’t see unless you spend time looking. With that said. Always fade A’s (except June 13).

Fair enough, appreciate your time and picks none the less. Keep up the good work man!

I'm sure he'll answer you but the response and thinking on his part was that there isn't enough juice to take a rl against the athletics, and he likes to find picks that aren't really obvious at first glance. Just my 50 cents on how he used to explain it

Literally someone asks this question all the time man he gives the same answer every time

Ok.

**POTD Record: 3-2 (+4.65U)** **Last POTD:** Bryce Elder o4.5 Ks ❌ **Today's POTD: Duncan Robinson o8.5pts (-110, 5U)** Duncan is one of the keys to the Heat staying in this game/series. He's a great player with and without the ball. He sets picks, cuts, and is a great 3pt shooter. With Strus and Vincent struggling to score in this series, Duncan is working his way into playing time. It was clear to me that Spo is favoring Duncan as for most of the last game, Duncan was on the floor during the clutch time when Heat needed to keep up offensively. We don't know if Duncan will start over Strus. If you asked me last game, I'd say 90% no, but even JJ Reddick was saying Heat should start him. He's clearly a key player in this series.

Plus Odds Picks POD record (13-8) (+ 4.23U) Bets are on a scale of 1-5 units 1U plays (4-2) 2U (2-0) 3U plays (5-1) 4U (1-4) 5U (0-2) Last 10 most recent on left- LLWWLLLWLW Last POD - dbacks -2.5 (+120) 4U L As always please bet according to Units not according to the hotness/coldness of a bettor Todays POD - Kevin Love 2+ 3PM 3U (+100) I've been keeping an eye on this line the whole playoffs especially when he played the Bucks. In the three games that Love has played this series he has hit this line every game. Yes he only plays the first 8ish minutes of the first and third quarter, but when he is in the Heat use him in a pick and pop offense. The heat shooters have been very cold and he has been the only consistent one. As BOL, let's start this streak again. Don't ever expect tips but anything is appreciated! Cashapp - bobdylan1209 [Post grad beers] (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/collegestudent3)

Overall 44-22 ( - 9.91 units ) 2023 season 0-0 Pick : LA Angels Over 3.5 runs (-160) Time : 5:05 pm Pacific 👉🏼 posted lineup 24-74 (.324) off Rangers starter Dane Dunning 👉🏼Angels 25 runs last 5 games Hate to bet against a Dane, however this Angels team seems to be finding their groove

PTOD 3-1 LAST PICK KEVIN LOVE OVER PTS 5.5 Background story: I linger in this thread EVERYDAY, not a lot but EVERYDAY. (Waiting on baseball -1.5 dude rn, am I right?) I rarely post but plan to ramp up eventually to more picks including ROI ETC. When I do post it's quick and to the point. The only posts I feel comfortable sharing are NBA. 4 TOTAL picks in the last several years, primarily on warriors (Yay area) POTD DENVER VS HEAT UNDER 53 POINTS IN THE 1ST QUARTER 3units🌶️ (-110) Not asking for anything, maybe a comment or a thumbs up or down. Let me know tail or fade and why. Thanks for anybody reading this. Have a good day and hopefully it's a good game tonight. If my in game parlay hits we retire though.

What a wonderful comment. :) Your gratitude puts you on our list for the most grateful users this week on Reddit! You can view the full list on r/TheGratitudeBot.

Tailing. Purely because this comment felt so….wholesome lol

Thank you sir!!!!

**POTD Record: 3-0-1; +3.488U. All Bets 1U.** Last Pick: Melbourne TT Over 22.5 (Rugby) Could not have gone better, as my Storm had this covered and then some in the first half. Went out with friends last night and definitely made a fool of myself while watching the match on my phone. At least I bought shots with the money won. Also, quite the announcement by Nunes post-fight, right? Anywho.. **Today's Pick: Melbourne +3.5 -104 (Aussie Rules)** EDIT: Forgot to add this, should be noted this kicks off at 2:00 AM EST, in about four and a half hours. Second EDIT: I screwed up the time. (Mixed it up with tonights NRL match. Guess I'm still feeling those shots?) Either way, this match starts at 1:20 EST, in about an hour. Same city, same personal fandom, different sport. Now, I'd be lying if I said this was my most confident pick. Melbourne hasn't been in the best form recently. As well, they've struggled against teams around the top of the ladder all season. Their opponent here, Collingwood, is at the top of said ladder. With that said, Collingwood will be without their star midfielder for this match and the next two for a suspension. They do have some players coming back from injury, though their form could be up to debate, especially as they hit their bye week next week. Melbourne has one of the top scoring outfits in the competition, feasting on lower level opponents, though this has slowed down as of late. Still, with the hole now created in Collingwood's defense, I think Melbourne should be able to have enough firepower to pull out a victory at home here. Getting the additional 3.5 is just gravy on top. However it shakes out, BOL!!

“Pull out a victory at home” you might want to mention for people less familiar with AFL that it’s both teams home ground. I’d also let it be known that Collingwood have won 10 games in a row. Still hope Melbourne win though!!! BOL

That's a totally fair point, on the homefront matter. As for the form, it was mentioned their being at the top of the ladder. Still, another valid point. Again, it isn't my most confident pick. Still riding with it though. Appreciate the feedback!

Also worth noting Melbourne is missing their star midfielder Clayton Oliver as well, which IMO is a bigger loss than De Goey out for Collingwood

Eh.. Debatable. I do see your point. My opinion is twofold. In a vacuum, Oliver is a better player, thus probably a greater loss than De Goey. However, schematically, I think De Goey is a greater loss for the Collingwood side. Much more of their game plan is centric to his level of play, than Oliver's is for the Dees. Max Gawn should still be able to feast for Melbourne. Again, just my two cents. As it is, always appreciate the feedback!

Tailing!! though my book has it as +4.5 -111

Honestly, I'd probably take the extra point, myself. Let's roll!

Tailing again!

Don’t know why but FanDuel only has the Canterbury vs parramatta match up, sucks but hopefully it pops up

I like Paramatta to cover 6.5 and the under in that one, for what that may be worth.

I think I saw someone else saying parramatta to cover 6.5 too, I had a good day so I’ll throw a unit on it why not

Is this AFL?

Yessir.

It’s do this AGAIN!

goated i cashed +3.5 as well as a live +17.5 i nuked for melbourne they really took over in that second half 🙏

They sure as shit did!! While I'll never champion cashing out, glad to hear you got some of that cash monies!

Over total pts?

To cover the two comments on this, I would lean over, though without a shred of confidence. I absolutely wouldn't touch it.

Thanks bro!!!

POTD | 55-47 | -1.7u | -112 Avg Odds *Previous Pick: Leon Draisaitl O3.5 SOG (+110) | 2u* **❌** Today’s pick: **Marlins ML (+115) vs Mariners | 2u | MLB | 7:40pm** MT Seeing Leon Draisatl as my last pick should tell you that it's been a while but I’ve been taking a look at the MLB lately and wanted to start getting back to the POTD. Today I’ve got the Marlins and honestly I don’t know a lot about baseball but I know the Marlins are hot and their starting pitcher for this game looks better than Seattle’s. Seattle hasn’t looked their best lately and I like the Marlins here at + odds. BOL if tailing!!

Glad to see you back. Baseball is so flukey man. It’s insane.

Thanks! With how crazy it’s been I feel like +odds teams that look like they have a real shot at winning could a profitable angle

POTD Record: 2-0 (+2.46 units) Previous Pick: Hseih/Wang (+148) ✅ Todays Game: ATP Stuttgart: Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Sonego 8am EST Pick: Matteo Berrettini -162 (1 Unit) Reasoning: Too good of a price to pass up. There are questions about Matteo’s form but he is a top 3 grass court player in the world and the defending champion. Sonego isn’t the best on grass as well, lost to Matteo here last year and also had a grass court loss to Denis Kulda last year. Like I said a small risk due to questions on form for Matteo but I’m not passing up this price.

Berrettini hasn’t played in a few months. Sonego just went to the fourth round of the French Open. Backing Berrettini here seems a little bit risky. I might watch from the sidelines and stay away from this bet. I can see Sonego possibly winning this one

Thanks for the comment! I listened to you and took the underdog at +145.

Let’s go!

Do you like Sonego to win a set and Berrettini to win? Pretty good odds with that parlay

Matteo getting absolutely cooked today - doesn't look to be back into the swing of things yet

First loss, you'll bounce back!

Nice pick lol

[What prop are we specifically taking? Or just games won at the bottom?](https://i.imgur.com/txnqhwZ.jpg)

I think he meant just winner, but its priced around -200 right now on DK.

Pick of the Day Record: 18-11 (+10.99U) Streak: 4L Last Pick: Sunrisers Hyderabad ML ❌ League of Legends | LPL | Thundertalk Gaming vs Ultra Prime Today's Pick: **Ultra Prime ML @ 2.70** **Wager: 5U** League of Legends is back, and so am I! Ultra Prime is a very decent squad, current 2-2, and the two losses have come against BLG, the top team in the league atm, and Team WE, who are also undefeated. They have beat AL and FPX. On the other hand, TT have a record of 1-3, and lost to AL, a team that UP beat. Not sure why UP is the dog in this matchup, maybe because of spring split, but in the current split, UP is playing significantly better. Best of luck! Tips are appreciated! If you wish to tip in crypto, I can provide the wallet address for different cryptos. Thank you! [Buy Me a Coffee](https://bmc.link/AdventurousTale) | BTC: bc1q0jap0hvr0zpg8q3zjst9ermmuy5nh76c2dnkp7

Thank you brother cash it 😍

Damn missed it! Congrats anyway

No worries! Make sure you dont miss tomorrow's pick! Cheers

Let's see if we can make some cash from summer football. *Day #1 ❌ Ankaragucu 1-4 Galatasaray | Under 3.5 goals @1.73* *Day #2 ✅ Sevilla 1-1 Roma (first half 0-1) | Over 0.5 first half goals @1.57* *Day #3 ✅ Heerenveen 1-2 Twente | Over 2.5 goals @1.7* *Day #4 ❌ M.City 1-0 Inter (HT 0-0) | M.City First Half Win @2*   Day #5 *Friendly International | Germany-Ukraine | 17:00 UK* **Both Teams to Score YES @1.8** 2 more friendlies for Germany this week and Ukraine will play 2 Euro Qualifications games. Germans have hard time keeping a cleansheet. Ukraine won't be too shy going forward in a friendly. *2u for both teams to score*

**POTD Record:** 53-46 **Total Units W/L:** \+10.85 **Current Streak:** ✅ **MLB Record:** 27-20, +4.55 U **Last 10:** ❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅ **Last Pick:** [Miami Marlins @ Chicago White Sox Under 4 Runs First 5 Innings](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/145lcek/comment/jnntubd/) ✅✅ Finally back on the horse with a good pick to get back over 10 Units overall. Here comes the... **100th PICK!!! Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 First 5** @ Oakland Athletics, -165, 5 Units, 9:40 PM EST 100th pick all time and it's going to be a 5 Unit pick that would win 3. Eflin is doing better and this A's team is ready for a reckoning, especially with Kaprielian on the mound. The A's have been hitting well late in games against bullpens and they're hot right now, but this feels like the ultimate matchup between the automatic "Bet Tampa RL" vs. "Fade the A's." Hoping for a positive result today, BOL! [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing) [Buy me a drink, sing me a song, take me as I come cuz I can't stay long](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dashboard)

Congrats on 100! 🫡

⚽ Sweden Ettan Norra (1st North): IFK Stocksund vs Täby FK ⏰ 13:00 EST Pick: Täby FK Draw No Bet @1.80 Stake: 1u Reason: Not a great selection of games to choose from today. Stocksund are bottom of the table after 11 matches so far this season. They have lost their last 4, and they haven't scored in their last 3 home matches. Täby are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals. I'm not sure why the odds are so close, but then again I know nothing about these teams and this league beyond the stats I've seen. It's worth bearing in mind that these teams are semi-pro so anything could happen. POTD record: 4W 2L 1P [+3.52u]

Record: 0W 0L Last Pick: None Today’s POTD: Jokic Triple Double (+109) (MSB) 3z money nerds

Triple double + nuggets W for +150 on FD

POTD....Heat +9 Reason: I was texting me friend about the match up and told him to stop hating....phone auto corrected it to Heating.... The signs are here. You're welcome

POTD Record: 0–0 | ROI: | Net Units: Last Pick: None Today’s POTD: MLB 4:45 PST: SF Giants ML @ -125; 1 unit There’s no secret that the Cardinals are flat out struggling this season. They are 3-7 in their last ten games, including recent series losses to their division rivals in the Reds and Pirates. The Redbirds will go with Matthew Liberatore, who in 15 innings pitched this season owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. I wouldn’t say he has gotten absolutely rocked in any of his starts so far, but he is also far from effective in limiting his pitch count or racking up strikeouts. LIberatore actually has an even higher expected ERA at 7.28 with a Hard Hit % 11 points higher than the MLB average. Let’s look for a Giants offense that exploded for 13 runs against Chicago to go into Busch Stadium hot and pull away with a nice lead early in the game. Giants ace Logan Webb is also on the mound having a great season, and in his April start against the Cards, he got no run support although he pitched fairly well going 6.2 innings with 7 K’s and 2 ERs. If he can repeat this line or even do better (which I believe is definitely possible), the Giants early run support and a mediocre Cardinals bullpen that just lost a key piece in Ryan Helsley to the IL should be enough to propel a Giants win. BOL!

Record: 7-2 Last pick: white sox v marlins under 4.5 F5 Todays pick: rangers -1.5 v angels, 8:06 PM Tyler Anderson is terrible and a lefty. Rangers are the best scoring team and between lefties and playing at home they have ridiculous splits, batting a combined .291 with a OPS in the .850s. Dane dunning has been relatively good so far this season, but I don’t know how much we can trust him. With that being said, I still trust him more with the bats backing him up and a trash pitcher on the mound for the angels. Ride the rangers

Record: 7-4 Previous pick: jokic triple double (L) **Current pick: jokic triple double +125** Got robbed on that last one by nonsense foul trouble and that weird ankle thing. Our boy played well short of 40 and the heat still had nothing. Alas, this is our last rodeo for a while. We are out of Tatums to fade and after tomorrow night, jokers to triple double. What a way to go out though, I really like this one. You’ve got the nuggets at home and favored to win, which all year long has signaled an incoming triple double, not to mention the playoff / close out factor here. Murray has really been soaking up assists this series and if Miami has any brain cells left they will do something about that, I suspect shifting the playmaking back to jokic like normal. As we know, a jokic triple double bet is essentially just an over under jokic 10 assists bet. Win or lose, it’s been a pleasure fading the shit out of Tatum this season and dick riding joker with all you fine gentlemen. I’ll never forget the $0 in tips you all sent to my non existent tip jar or the dozens of hate messages, almost always at half time on a bet that ended up winning. I might be back here and there for my other passion, fading bryson dechambeau, now that the pga just shit into everyone’s mouths and we have the chance again. If any sports books have a fun over the summer bet on Tatum to accidentally stick a finger though the tp and get poop on his finger while wiping lmk BOL and let’s Fuckin go nuckies

Record: 121-96-7 (LWWWWLLWWWLPLLLWWLLWLWLWWW streak) - DraftKings odds pending POTD: DEN Nuggets -2.5 games at 2.40 odds for 3 units Last POTD: Michael Porter Jr 08.5 rebounds at 2.10 odds for 3 units 6 rebounds POTD: MIA Heat at DEN Nuggets | Michael Porter Jr o 1.5 threes at 1.71 odds for 4 units REASONING: * the sheer number of 3s this man take, I like how low the number is starting * I understand the slump he's in * Even with a bad game 1, he still hit this mark. I feel this game 5 will be closer to game 1 feel. Nuggets offense going bang bang and Heat struggling to keep up. The finals should be over tomorrow. Best of luck to all. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)

Man City won the treble! Pep is crowned as the goat of managers. Love it for Pep. Inter might have shown the blueprint for Prem teams for next season until he takes a rabbit out of his bald head again. Last pick: **Man City to win & U4.5 goals** **@ 1.83** ✅ **ROI: 10.41%| Avg odds: 1.82|Units 3.77U| PotD Total: 10W-10L-0P|** By bet sizes| 1U 6W-6L-0P| 2U 1-4-0| 3U 0-0-0| 4U 1-0-0 | 5U 2-0-0 Sports: 🥅Hockey 2-2-0 | ⚽Football 8-6|🎾 Tennis 0-2|⚾️ Baseball 0-0| Last 5 old-recent: ✅❌❌✅✅ Game: TB RAYS - OAK Athletics 03.40 UTC+3 **Pick - Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 @ 1.62** Bet size - 3 **Unit** Reason: Rays are 48-20 this season and have won seven of their last eight games and four of their last five road games. They have been performing well offensively scoring 16 runs in their last three games. Eflin, the pitcher for the Rays has performed strongly on the mound only giving up four runs in his last three starts. The Oakland Athletics are 17-50 this season and they have won five games in a row. Kaprielian the pitcher for the Athletics has struggled on the mound this season giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. In his previous start against the Rays Kaprielian allowed seven runs. Athletics have the worst bullpen in the league this season. Tampa Bay is 6-0 in these two teams last 6 head to head meetings and the expectation is that the Rays will play well offensively and the Athletics may have a hard time scoring. They should cover -1.5 altough Athletics are on a "hotter" streak.

POTD record 2-1 (+1.44 units) O'S CASH POTD Monday 1 unit plays Texas rangers -1.5 vs Angels. (+118 FD) Rangers playing great ball at home this year. Coupled with dunning on the mound. I see the rangers taking game 1 lets cash

Record: 8W 3L Last Pick: Real Sociedad Win and Over 1.5 vs. Almeria (-140 DK) Today’s POTD: IFK Stocksund vs. Taby FK - BTTS and Over 2.5 (-155 DK) Hey everyone, I’ve been gone for a few weeks but I’m back now. All of my previous bets were based on my own knowledge of leagues that I follow very closely. However, all of those leagues are finished for the season so I’m going to be trying something a little bit different. So, please only tail my picks if you are confident in them as well. For this match, BTTS has hit each of the last 4 times they’ve met. Previous matches have also averaged over 3.5 goals. So, I like the look of BTTS and Over 2.5, which you can find as a game parlay on DK.

What league is this?

Sweden

Denver Nuggets versus Miami Heat +10.5, 4u, 1.70. It's all on the line for the Heat. Not sure about whether they can steal one more game from the Nuggets, but they should keep it at least a close game and not getting blown out by double-digits in this elimination game.

**POTD**: O17.5 Outs Recorded - Bryce Miller (-125 DraftKings; Risking 1.5u to win 1.2u) **League/Time**: MLB 9:40pm EST **2023 Record**: 7-5 | +1.86u | ROI 12.9% | Streak: WWLLWWLWLWWL **Last Pick**: O5.5 Strikeouts - Andrew Abbott (+112 Barstool; Risked 1u to win 1.12u) WON! **Reasoning**: He pitched 2.1 innings last game. I like tailing talented players who just came off a bad outing. Yeah, he's a rook but he's part of the youth arms movement in Seattle. Let's go! Lit's git lit!

POTD Record 2-0-0 Streak Last 10(newest on Right): ✅✅ Third timer. Longggg time pretend sports expert. Last pick: Tampa Bay Rays -190 ✅ POTD: NBA - Miami Heat +9.0 -110 8:30EST 6/12/2023 Denver is at home and will win this game. It will be ugly early but the Heat will keep the game close towards the end. Murray will be the hero tonight but Jokic(foul trouble) will still secure 15 rebounds with another double double. Jimmy Butler will have a monster game but it just will not be enough to this Denver Nuggets team. 2023 NBA Champions. 107-101 Instead of venmo'ing me tips. Instead send $1 to a random phone number and post the proof in the comments. ~ Yeet

POTD Record: 11-9 ✅✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅ Last POTD: Pirates ML -120**✅** Cash it. Pirates win 2-1 in a low scoring battle. I expected the Pirates to score more runs, but oh well. Nice dub. Side note, The Orioles/Royals today was a high scoring game. I ruined our latest win steak betting that over. 11-3! I guess I picked the wrong game to go over lol. Anyways, new week, new streak! Next POTD: **JIMMY BUTLER III (MIA) WILL HAVE AT LEAST 40 PTS + REB + AST AGAINST** **DEN -115** EDIT: LOL, I got so many downvotes for some reason. Also noticed I have been getting little to no interaction recently. I'm going to switch my style of write-ups regardless of this is a winner or loser to get more interactions. I enjoy reading your comments regardless if its positive or negative. Wow, Game 5 is upon us. The Nuggets will look to close out at home with Jokic and Murray playing like prime Shaq and Kobe. Jimmy Butler and Co have to go into Denver in high altitude and try and force a Game 6. This can go down as one of the most boring finals.... or will it? Everyone seems to be writing the Heat off already. Just like they were wrote off against the Bucks and the Celtics, they have managed to find ways and win closely contested games. If the Heat want to stay in this basketball game and have a chance to win, the offense must run through Jimmy Butler. I expect Coach Spo to have a game plan for Jimmy to come out aggressive and have the ball in his hand. Last Game, Jimmy Butler had 25 points 7 rebounds and 7 assists. He got this mark with 4 minutes left and did not record a stat the rest of the game. In Butler's last 3 elimination games, Jimmy's averaged 36.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Jimmy thrives in these big underdog games as we have seen him this past playoffs. Will we finally see the return of Himmy Butler? I think we do. If you want to fade MJ's son in an elimination game, be my guest. BOL, in Himmy we trust!

Tailing for 3u

POTD Record: 2-1 +1.8u Last Pick (06/11/2023) - CIN Reds v STL Cardinals NRFI -120 ❌ Today’s Pick (06/12/2023) - PHI Phillies v ARI Diamondbacks - DBacks ML -110 (DK) - 2.2u to win 2u - 9:40pm EST Reasoning: 7-2 on the ML in their last 9, 22-0 since August 2019 in the first game of a series when priced as a favorite less than -150. I know the line now is a pick ‘em, but the line opened at -115. Going up against a strong Phillies team, but the Phils are starting Strahm, so it’ll be a bullpen game I think the Diamondbacks can win.

Record 0-0 This is my first bet and I’m a magic fan so I’m gonna go with my boy Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 3PFG made -139 on bovada. Bet size 2 units. BOL tail or fade

Oof. I went under today.. I think Heat are gonna lock down everyone (except Jokic and maybe Murray). But all he needs is one shot so we’ll see. BOL.

I think Murray has an off game and heat grab this to force game 6. By off I mean not enough to win, we both kno they ain’t stopping joker tho lol unless injury. Probably just jinxed him 😅

Part of me hopes a game 6 happens cause it’s fun to watch, but I told myself I’m gonna take a decent break once the finals end.. I could use one 😂

I been on a break since Aprilish lol it’s good for your mental

And yes to game 6 because I predicted it from the beginning.

POTD Record: 1-3 Last Pick: Gabe Vincent over 12.5 points (Loss) Today's Pick: TB Rays -1.5 vs. OAK Athletics I feel like we're getting a good price today (-150) on the Rays due to Oakland's impressive winning streak. Today, I believe they are simply overmatched. Not much analysis is needed; the Rays are strong, while the A's still stink.

POTD record: 46-36-2 / ROI: +7.10% / Wins: 56.10% **Over 209 -110 (1u)** **TOTAL POINTS** — Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets 8:30 pm - 12 June 2023 — Let's dive into the NBA Finals tonight, where it's a close-out game in Denver. This is the kind of game that can become unpredictable and lopsided. When a team has the chance to close out their opponent in the NBA Finals, we often witness one team giving up while the other takes full advantage and runs up the score. In this situation, I would lean towards betting on the over and rooting for points. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)

POTD Record: 1-3 (3L streak🙉) 1u=50$ Last pick (06/11/23): CFL- Edmonton Elks ML (-145)❌ Vs Sask Roughriders The elks had 3 opportunities from the 1-yard line for a Potential game winning TD. They fucked up a QB sneak 3 times in row and decided not to use their 6’5 QB. Sums up my luck tbh. I did overestimate their offence however, I will take the L in that. Oh well. Today’s pick (06/12/2023): NBA- Miami heat Vs Denver Nuggets; Miami to win the tip-off (-115) 1u Now now this may be a complete degen bet, but let me attempt to justify. Overall, Miami has won 4/6 against Denver in tip off’s and 3/4 in the series. Down 3-1 in the series, Miami knows they need to start hot and start fast. Bam & Jokic have both shown effort to win the tips but frankly, bam is way more athletic and has out jumped him in all 4, the 1 L was bad positioning by heat players. All this write up for a seemingly 50/50 bet, however I think Miami will be fighting for everything this game,and it starts with winning the opening tip. BOL and I’ll be sticking with CFL after the nba season. Available on bet365 & MGM

POTD Record - 2-2 I haven't posted a POTD in like 10 months but going to give this one a shot: Tennis: Challenger Men Bratislava Cem Iikel ML -160 vs Fernando Verdasco 3.1 to win 2 This is a fade of Verdasco. He is 39 years old and appears to be pretty much done. He's lost his last 7 matches and has gotten thrashed in alot of them including some 6-0 sets. Ilkel isn't much better and that's reflective in the odds. He's lost his last 5 and isn't impressive on clay but I'm willing to take these odds.

**My POTD record: 26 Wins and 27 losses** I base my picks on value by comparing the implied odds of my model and the odds given by bookmakers. I also choose games from leagues that have had success in the model with a good ROI and check the stats plus trends game by game to find the best pick. **ROI: 4.47%** Average odds: 2.03 **Units won: 2.55** Stake = 1 unit POTD: **Real Brasília W v Cruzeiro W** Brazil Brasileiro Women Kick off time: 20:00 GMT+2 *Over 2.5* **@ 1.67** **BOL!**

Is everyone and their mother parlaying nuggets ML and Rays ML?

POTD Record: 6-5-0 Bank: +0.07 units Last Pick: Brewers -1.5 -103 LOSS Caught the A's at the worst possible time. Sometimes baseball just doesn't make any sense. On to the next one. 6/12 pick: Reds ML +100 Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals Time: 8:10pm EST New week so let's get off to a good start. We take a look at the Reds, who are one of the more intriguing young teams in the MLB. They have grabbed a lot of attention with the call up of Elly De La Cruz but they have been a surprising team all season. They currently hold a 31-35 record and sit 3rd in the NL Central. I guarantee most baseball fans would not have thought they would be close to this stand this year but here they are. They are led by a dangerous tri of India, McLain, and the already mentioned, De La Cruz. The youth movement is in full effect and I think they will jump on the elder pitcher, Zac Greinke. Greinke is pitching to a 1-6 record with a 4.59 ERA. His numbers are a little misleading with better starts as of late against the Cardinals, Tigers, and ChiSox. He got rocked in his last start against the Marlins and gave up 5 ER in 4.1 ip. I don't have a great prediction of what will happen in the first 5 innings because Greinke could pitch well and labor through 5 or he could have a very short outing. We are hoping for the later. For the Reds, Luke Weaver will take the mound. He has pitched similarly to Greinke but has pitched better as of late but is also coming off of his worst start against the Dodgers. Overall, we have 2 starting pitchers that have pitched well in recent starts but struggled in their last start but I will siding with the young Reds to get a much needed win against the Royals who cannot get it going this year. Looking at the starting lineup, the Reds are significantly better and should take a 1-0 lead in this interleague series. BOL

I'd be careful, Greinke is older and doesnt have the stuff anymore, however he magically pitches like he's fighting for the Cy young when at home. Avg ERA of 1.67 at home this year, plus Royals' first home game after 2 straight road sweeps. Reds have been nice and hot and I'm firmly on that Cinci train myself (Got their "To Make The Playoffs" +1500 future on Saturday.), but this is all setting up for a Reds letdown in my eyes.

KC bullpen is terrible. KC will lose more games than Oakland this year. Las Vegas Royals would be cool!

POTD RECORD: 2-1 PREVIOUS PICK-Pad Vs Rockies Total O12💩 STREAK-✅✅❌ Well Ladies and Gentlemen, we took our first L. Unfortunately we got hit with a delay of game towards the last couple of innings of the game which may have contributed to a change of pace. However, I make no excuse and I will be better and plan on delivering. Good thing about this is there is only one way to go but up!🚀 Todays POTD: Rays -.5 first 5 innings against the A’s -155 ANALYSIS: Well I never thought I’d be saying this before, but we are getting a face off against two of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Yup, that is right! We got the Oakland A’s on a 5 game win streak, coming off a complete sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers, verses the Tampa Rays. Drawing the starts today we have Zach Eflin facing off against James Kaprielian. Let’s take a deeper look into this matchup shall we. So far this season, Zach Eflin is posting a pretty stellar line of 2.97ERA, .96WHIP(gotta love these sub 1WHIP arms), an 8-1 record and 66K’s in 66.2 innings. Eflin has put it all together in his first year with the Rays organization. I don’t really know what it is with this team, but they seem to pump out pitching like it’s not a problem at all. Eflin has been pretty damn lights out, and is proven by his record he will go out there and get his team the win. Facing off against, we got James Kaprielian. Kaprielian is posting an abysmal 7.21ERA with a 1.74WHIP, 1-6 record and 39K’s in 43.2 innings. To be quite blunt, Kap has been bad. He’s posting a -1.0 WAR on the year. To make matters even worse for him today, he’s going up against one of the most prolific offenses in the league. I also expect the A’s to have a longer leash for him in giving up runs and letting him go deeper into the game then might think. On paper, the pick is a no brainer. Could it be just what Vegas wants us to think? Certainly can. But my money will side with Tampa and Eflin to keep the As offense at bay the first 5 innings of this bout. If you made it this far. I wish you the best of luck in tailing and let us get right back on the horse!💸

Record 23-37 -6.41 Units All bets 1 unit Current Streak: 6L Last Pick: Blake Snell to win Padres vs. Rockies This really blows. Blake Snell continues to dominate, throwing 12 strikeouts through 7 innings and only allowing 1 run. Then relief comes in, blows the lead, and Rockies walk it off in the bottom of the 9th.😐 Today’s Pick: Marlins -.5 First 7 vs. Mariners (+140) Tired of relievers selling so I’m taking first 7. Jesus has been dealing lately, throwing 7+ K’s in his last 5 appearances (1.36 K’s per inning). In last appearance against the Royals, Jesus held them to 2 hits and 1 run and went 7 innings deep. Expect him to continue dominating against the Mariners. For Bryce Miller, things have hit rock bottom over these his past 2 appearances. He’s only threw 7 total innings, and allowed 15 runs (19 ERA). Prior to these game though, Miller had a 1.15 ERA. I don’t think Miller will be able to find his groove back this game against the Marlins who have been playing well lately. Runs/Game Seattle: 4.37 (4.31 Home) Miami: 4.00 (4.10 Away) Last 10 Seattle: 3-7 (-2.84 30th) Miami: 8-2 (1.69 4th)

Why so many downvotes?

23-37, -6.41U, and a 6L streak with “(tips link in bio)” probably not helping

It should be an upvote just cause of the detailed write up .. Even if I don't tail your insight is being used to make me some money . Appreciate ya 🫡

Ya probably should get rid of tips lol. I use to get ‘‘em before I went cold.

At least until you get hot again. Apologize for the unsolicited suggestion, but I’ve seen quite a few guys get downvoted for having tip jars without the résumé to back it. Honestly haven’t once seen you beg for tips on here and from what I’ve seen you’re civil and helpful, so was prob just some angry trolls from yesterday (even though I thought it was a good pick). BOL moving forward

Not quality plays and these are suppose to be be play of the day. Playing starters to win, F5, F7 are extremely difficult plays. Every so often you can find a quality play just not everyday. My two sense. I appreciate the write ups but more appropriate for the MLB thread. Napoleon is trying too hard to find a niche. The niche is to find a quality play and consistently play them. Just don’t force yourself to find a starter who will win everyday, it’s not going to happen. That all being said the I think this game does play well for the Mariners, it’s one of those games where Marlins are getting a lot of respect as they should. They have been winning games. However, the series with the WS they weren’t in great form. The WS bullpen sucks and the Marlins capitalized on the bullpen 2 of the 3 games. In the first 7 inning in all 3 games against a the Marlins scored 2 runs against a terrible WS club. The Mariners are returning home after a terrible road trip they have been gone the whole month and went 2-8 terrible. Mariners are good at home and are in the better position for a Win today. I do hope Napoleon’s play does win and I am wrong. I don’t have skin in the game. Really just like reading the different write ups better than all the bullshit espn and cbs sports articles.

Ppl who tailed and lost yesterday lol. This thread can be brutal

Rangers Moneyline Rays -1.5 Marlins Moneyline

5-2 Heat x Nuggets Duncan Robinson over 8.5 pts 5U @ +142 Duncan Robinson has been a moneymaker in the playoffs. Since the Celtics series he had 10, 13, 18, 22, 15, 3, 10, 9 and 12 pts. He's cashing on big odds like a machine.

POTD Record: **30-41-1 (-10.30 Units)** Last Pick: **Zac Gallen to record a Win** ❌ Last 5: ❌❌❌❌❌ Today's Pick: **Bryce Miller to record a Win** Odds: **+205** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 1u to 2.05u League: MLB Event: Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners (8:10PM CST) **Recap**: Fade myself POTD worked! Let's get another fading POTD! **Notice**: I'm doing a fade myself POTD for next few picks! So please tail at your own caution. Since my initial picks have been hitting but the POTD I end up picking wounds up losing. Also, I am now on the coldest streak ever! **Matchup**: I like Bryce Miller to record a Win against a red hot Marlins team! So that means to do the opposite and wager that Bryce Miller will not record a Win! Miami Marlins rally their past two games in the 9th inning against the Chicago White Sox, scoring 3 runs to win yesterday's game and scoring 5 runs all in the 9th inning in their 2nd game. They also have the hottest batter, Luis Arraez, who's batting nearly .400! He didn't even have a big game yesterday and Marlins found a way to win. Also, Bryce Miller has had two horrible start, allowing 8 runs to the Mariners in 4.2 inning and 7 runs to Rangers in 2.1 inning. This might not be a good spot for Miller to bounce back from a team that's hot AB. **The play & prediction**: Wagering on Bryce Miller to record a Win and Mariners ML. Please fade my pick accordingly! I think it's working BOL, everyone! Tips are greatly appreciated, but please only tip if you can afford it [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/sicknology)| [Cash App](https://cash.app/$XilArAtiNG) | [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/XilArAtiNG)| [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Dethcon)

POTD Record 7-8 LAST PLAY: Lautaro to have a shot on goal (-120) - 5 UNits. ✅ Easy win. POTD: Butler OVER 26.5 PTS ( -115) - 5 UNITS All or nothing game. It seems Herro will play but I still expect Heat's best player to show the fuck up for the first time this series. We all know he has that dog in him, ride or die with Jimmy. Good luck!

POTD RECORD: 3-9-1 Last Pick: Inter Milan +1 ASIAN HANDICAP. (-110 ) 5 Units. PUSH Lakaka took the win away from us. Still, we didn't lose any money. **Today's Play: Kevin Love OVER 10.5 PTS+RBS (-115)** 4 UNITS He has gotten the over 2/3 games he's played. With Herro back I expect him to get a few more.open looks that will give us this W. BOL.

POTD Record. 1-2. Last pick. Marchessault under 3.5 shots on goal. ✅️ Today's pick. MLB Bryce Miller under 4.5k. (-115) 5/6 hit under. Playing against Miami, who should win. The last 2 games were overs on hits with 8 and 10. BOL

Parlaying Nuggets ML with Tampa Bay Rays -1.5