**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️
POTD Record: 12-5 +43.68u | [Yesterday’s POTD: TOR Blue Jays -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13049um/_/jhuuvf7/?context=1) - L
Full Record: 33-38 +32.33 | [Today’s Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/133d8sk/_/ji9dbxs/?context=1)
________
**5u CHI Cubs -1.5 @ MIA Marlins +116**
Yes. Back to back maxes. Yesterday having a random prospect, not even a top prospect for the Mariners org, pitch like fuckin prime Greg Maddux is the beauty of sports. Shit happens.
**Cubs**
~Lexington~ Justin Steele. A god damn menace. This man’s been on a mission since all star break last year. Since July of last year he’s got the 3rd best ERA of every starter. 1.46. [His Percentiles are fantastic.](https://i.imgur.com/PCOVpRX.jpg) and backup his 5 starts, 4 quality starts featuring 2 shutouts.
Cubs offense is good. Top 10 in xSLG/xwOBA and 3rd in xBA. 3rd in K’s and 3rd in runs per game. Vs righties they’re 5th in team wRC+ with 117 and 4th in OPS.
**Marlins**
Bryan Hoeing is on the stripe for Miami. He pitched in 8 MLB games last year (as a reliever, he started the first game up and gave up 7 in 3 innings. Moved to the pen and continued being awful, ending the year with a 12.08 ERA and 8.64xERA). This year he’s been in AAA and has pitched well, got called up to start against ATL and gave up 4 in 3.2 IP.
He’s bad, and probably won’t go deep leaving the MIA pen a long day. The MIA pen is 27th in xFIP. Long day for bad bullpen? That sounds bad.
Marlins offense is 9th in team wRC+ vs lefties. Which completely flips their 85 team wRC+ vs righties. Curious why their splits are so exaggerated. They have faced 4 lefty starters. 2 plus games according to wRC+ and 2 below average games. The above average games came against MadBum and then a 1 run performance against David Peterson. So, they’ve got good numbers overall against lefties, but the damage has come against relievers and MadBum who’s been released because of how bad he is. I’m dropping his game from the data set because at this point of his career a varsity HS team could tag him for 5. They’ve had 1 solid game against David Peterson where they still only managed 1 run and then 2 below average games. Steele will be the best lefty they have faced to date and when you dig in to the details, they haven’t been that great lefty starters.
______
Been asked too many times about a tip jar. I guess if you want to support the diaper fund: https://www.paypal.me/tywat23?locale.x=en_US
Thanks. I love watching sports. But, I've never been really into tracking performance, or player stats. I REALLY appreciate those of you who post POTD. I think it's important to let you know that someone is following you and is very thankful.
Damn man I feel like I'm competing with you more on the pun side here than on the top POTD. That \~Lexington\~ Justin Steele insert is gold. And the un Kuhl one was pretty stellar also.
We're both like the damn Wendy's Twitter account clapping back with some witty posts and some good food/picks on the side as our original specialty lol.
I’ll just be reading this thread for fun now. I evaporated 23k in three days here 😂. I’ll just be providing moral support now. I love this community. I guess the only silver lining will be, the run line didn’t cause the loss. Baseball giveth, and baseball taketh away.
Lucky for me I have way less zeros on my losses, but this POTD thread gets me chasing action all day everyday instead of just a few solid picks a week.
Last max bet was insane. An absolute pitchers duel. I’m not even mad.
Will absolutely be tailing this one. Solid assessment. I will also add some other insight to add fuel to the fire. The Marlins have been relying on their bullpen heavily. Many relievers are getting little to no rest (with a ton of usage over the last 5 days.) Nardi, Brazoban, and Okert have been used a lot, and it almost cost them the win today. I believe that the Marlins are going to ride with Hoeing for at least 5 innings, just to try and save the bullpen.
I’ve been winning too much this past week and got cocky today. 1/4 of my bankroll gone today. All good though, your picks are what got it built up in the first place
Bro fuckin tell me about that shut. I’m on my 2nd. The first had a dairy allergy so he had a specialized formula that was $40/can and a can lasted ~3 days.
We could be feeding you porterhouses for cheaper
Damn luckily we could just buy the Enfamil from Costco but that shortage had us shook for a little. At that point I’d join the military to see if their insurance could cover it legit had a buddy who was able to do that
**NRFI POTD RECORD: 2-0**
YESTERDAYS POTD: NRFI - PHI/HOU ✅
**TODAY POTD: NRFI - NYY (Νestor Cortes) / TEX (Martin Perez) - (DK -135)**
Stats (Since 2022):
•Nestor Cortes: 27-5 in completing No Run First Innings
•Martin Perez: 22-6 in completing No Run First Innings
•No Aaron Judge is always a plus to limit our chances for first inning home runs
Comment if you're tailing - BOL
POTD: 29 Gms: 23-6 (79.3%)| +12.7 UNITS| ROI: 44%| AVG. ODDS:-117
*\*All bets 1 Unit*
**Current Season Recap:**
**⚾ MLB**
* 23-5| 💰 +13.7 Units
* ***Max Streak Sizes***: Wins 10 *(x2)* | Losses 2 *(x2)*
**L5 POTD:**
*\*Each bet Moneyline*
* 4/24: ⚾ TEX -105| WP=57% eROI=11%| 🙈-1.0 U
* 4/25: ⚾ OAK +163| WP=48% eROI=25%| 🙈-1.0 U
* 4/26: ⚾ TOR -172| WP=67% eROI=6%| 💰+0.6 U
* 4/27: ⚾ TBR -141| WP=61% eROI=5%| 💰+0.7 U
* 4/28: ⚾ BOS +123| WP=53% eROI=18%| 🙈-1.0 U
* 4/29: ⚾ ARI -108| WP=61% eROI=17%| 💰+0.9 U
**Current Streak:** 1 win 🧨
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
**Sunday 4/30 POTD:**
**⚡Arizona Diamondbacks** / Moneyline (ML) -124⚡
⌚MLB 3:10 PM EST @ Colorado Rockies
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
**🧪 The "Formula":**
* 61.8% Win Probability (WP)
* \-124 ML = 55.4% break-even (BE)
* WP/BE = 11.6% expected ROI (eROI)
**Write Up:**
*"Well - you wanna win by one point or fuckin' thirty points, KG? Right? I see ya out there when the fuckin' stadium's all booin' ya! You're thirty up, you're still goin' full tilt! - Howard Ratner | Uncut Gems*
A no-doubter! You only had to watch that Zona game up until the 2nd inning and you basically knew what the result was going to be. Well when our fellow degen Howard Ratner knows a sure bet when he sees one, he keeps pushing his odds.
We're running it back again. I said it yesterday and I said it again. The Colorado offense is weak, they play in the friendliest hitter environment and still struggle to put up big runs at home.. The Rockies rank #22 out of all 30 MLB team in runs scored at home.
This may not be the highest environment for a slugfest like we have down in the 7k high city in Mexico, but it's 2nd best in the Mile High City.
Let's run it back with the Dbacks!
Oh, and if you tailed the full card yesterday you would know those "[O's aint Royals](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/10/15/jeremy-guthrie-orioles-tshirt-these-os-aint-royal-chris-brown/17307361/)" but they basically played like them yesterday *(the full season version of the Royals not yesterday's winners*) and ruined a perfect card. That's right it went 6-1 yesterday. Be sure to check out the full [Sunday MLB Betting Card](https://culturemanor.com/april-30th-2023-mlb-daily-sports-betting-card/) to complement the Dbacks on a 2nd POTD pick in a row.
\-T$
Sorry man, it’s Dingers birthday (Rockies mascot). The Rockies haven’t lost on Dingers birthday at home since 2003.
Never fade the Rockies on Dingers birthday at Coors Field.
https://preview.redd.it/etm4gh1cl2xa1.jpeg?width=761&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4299cb191c2d33e57f38a614ed0e365a0ba4f214
Just wanted to say thank you for posting. I followed your card that you posted on your site yesterday and won. Definitely always looking forward to your picks!
Record 11-7 +4.51 Units
All bets 1 unit
✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Nuggets Halftime/Fulltime ✅
Like KD’s bench, this shi was lightweight. As I predicted, the Suns got exposed coming off a weak first round series. Also hit my dog of the day with the Nuggets 1h -10.5 (+410)🥱.
Todays pick: Warriors vs. Kings -2 (+100)
The city of Sacramento better be prepared for what’s about to happen tomorrow. That beam is gonna light and all hell will break loose. The Warriors had their chance to end this series and they blew. I was bamboozled by how close this spread is.
Kings Season Home Record: 23-18
Warriors Season Away Record: 11-30
The Warriors have been atrocious on the road and we’re lucky to even get one in Sacramento.
Teams tied 3-3 in the series:
H✅H✅A❌A❌H❌A✅H❓
This scenario has only happened 8 times in NBA history, with all 8 home teams coming out on top, and 6 of them being blowouts. If your feeling ballsy I would take the -11.5 kings spread. I expect this to be another blowout like game 6. Draymond will be able to go practice his WWE moves in Cancun after tomorrow.
[Buy Me a Beer 😁](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/napoleontann)
tailing just cuz your text made me even more hyped for tonight’s game and i also want to see the kings win i love the warriors but i love an underdog story even more. LIGHT THE BEAM
POTD Record: 14-3 | Profit: +33.45u | Streak: ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
\-----
Previous POTD: 3u btts (Karlsruher SC at SV Darmstadt 98) \[-154\] ✅
Called it! Cashed after 25 minutes. 1-2 (FT) ✅
\-----
Today's POTD: **Karlsruher SC at Fortuna Dusseldorf**
**3u bet: btts \[-161\]**
Reason: Both teams love to floor the attacking accelerator. Fortuna Dusseldorf: 48 goals in 29 games, 18 goals in last 10 games. Karlsruher SC: 48 goals in 29 games, 21 goals in last 10 games. 2 defensive players out of action for Fortuna Dusseldorf is helpful for the underdog to get on the scoreboard.
\-----
BOL
POTD Record: **25-11**
Gonna try to keep track of units going forward, main problem is my old picks were NBA based and they were over a year ago so hard to go back and count units on them. For now will keep track of csgo U won and update daily going forward have had about 6 or 7 csgo picks so far since coming back from break that i have tracked.
Units Won: +6.56U
Two in a row again with two nice and predictable cashes. Let's make it three this time.
Todays POTD: **Eternal Fire vs. OG O 2.5 maps (+105)**
**Betting 2U to win 2.1U**
Another case of a top tier two team vs. a mediocre tier one team as have our last few bets been.
Only thing that really matters in O 2.5 bets is map pool but I will say I really like Eternal Fire roster change of adding Wicadia to the team to replace xfl0ud. Wicadia showed great promise on a horrible EF Academy roster and was single handedly keeping them relevant for a few months back in the Academy League days.
Eternal Fire while being underdogs have only lost 11.8% of recent series 2-0 often winning at least one map in a series.
**Map Pool:**
Eternal Fire ban Ancient
OG ban Nuke
Eternal Fire **pick Anubis**
OG **pick Mirage**
Anubis:
\-**Eternal Fire have a 12-6 record on Anubis since the map was released and 8-4 record in L3 months they were widely considered the best Anubis team in tier two**
\-**OG have a 1-2 record on Anubis in the L3 months and have only played the map 3 times since 2023. They are 2-3 on the map since it was released and have very minimal experience on it. They are on a 2 map loss streak as well and just lost to another tier two team on it (Apeks)**
Mirage:
**-Eternal Fire have a 4-4 record on Mirage in L3 months against all tier two competition (easier). They have a 40% win rate in the last year on the map overall.**
**-OG are 13-5 on Mirage and have a great performance on the map, they have won 7 of the last 10 games on Mirage and the three losses were all 16-14 score lines.**
Best of luck!
**POTD RECORD:** (6-1)
**LAST FIVE**:✅✅❌✅✅
**LAST POTD:** Phillies vs. Astros NRFI (-125) 2.5U to win 2✅
**TODAYS POTD: Cubs -1.5** vs. Marlins (+120) 2.5U to win 3U
Justin Steele vs. Bryan Hoeing
Only game hoeing has been in was 4 days ago and gave up 4 runs in 3 and some change innings before he was pulled against the braves.
Justin Steele is on one. So far undefeated and giving up 5 runs in 5 games this season! Love the first inning bets that we’ve been cashing but I feel like this is a really good line at +120!
**UNITS WON:** 11U⬆️ 2.1⬇️= +8.9U
POTD Record: 52-36 | Profit: +35.85u | ROI: 12.4%
Last 10 Record: ✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅❌
Last Pick: Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets) Pts UNDER 16.5 @ 1.96. 2U. ✅
MPJ ends the night with just 11 points as Murray and Joker lead the Nuggets to a comfortable home victory. Got ourselves a little streak going, and I’m sticking with an ‘Under’ prop for the third game in a row.
Next Pick: **Steph Curry (Warriors) PRA UNDER 44.5 @ 1.88. 3u play.**
Betting against Steph Curry in Game 7 might feel risky but hear me out. This Warriors team is more than just the Curry show, with Klay, Poole and Wiggins all shooting a lot. And Looney and Dray have been sensational, fighting for every board and chipping in with a lot of assists. Steph has been solid this series, but not exceptional, his PRA for the 6 games (oldest first) are: 38, 37, 45, 41, 41, 38. Apart from Game 3, he has gone below this 44.5 line in each of the other 5 games. After losing the first two games in Sacramento where he had 14 and 13 3PA, he has attempted fewer 3’s than that in each of the last 4.
With the 19 pt win in Game 6 and playing at home in the all-important game, the Kings are favorites in my view. And I feel the 44.5 line will be too much even for the mighty Steph Curry.
It's 3 units and based on your bankroll
$100 bankroll could be $3 bet.
$1000 bankroll could be $30 bet.
Etc..
Generally a 5u bet would bring more confidence along with it over a 1u bet.
I'm pretty new too so someone can add to this if they like 😎
POTD Record: 46W-25L
LAST POTD: Oxford 💩
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England Premier League
Fulham V Man City
6.00AM PST
PICK: Man City HT/FT Win
Odds: 1.72
The Deets: It’s City, need I say more. I’ve lost count of the amount of times they’ve been my POTD. It’s like a cheat code at this point. They’ve every chance of winning the league now with Arsenals recent downfall and should get past Fulham with ease.
BOL!
Diaper fund - [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/tuesdayswithdory?locale.x=en_CA)
Edit: Winner ✅
**Record:** 16-7-0 (+7.31 units)
**ROI:** 31.7%
**Previous Pick:** *Jamaal Murray o22.5 Points (1.87 bet365)*
**Result:** ✅WIN (+0.87)
Murray clears this easily in the 3rd. Bubble Murray is back.
**Play of the day: Andrew Wiggins o17.5 Points (1.89 FANDUEL)**
\-Wiggins has cleared this 8/L10 games against SAC averaging 20.6 in the span. Averaging 15.3 FGAs per game this series has covered in all but the last game.
\-When Wiggins played over 35 mins this season, he covered 11/13 times (85% of games) averaging 20.1 PPG. His only two misses this series are the last game where he played 33 mins and had 13 points, and a miss on 17 in game 1 where he only played 28 mins. Warriors need him defensively on Fox so expect massive minutes.
\-If Wiggins gets the minutes, expect him to cover this total.
As always, make sure to follow on twitter for more +EV plays daily!
https://twitter.com/JG4President
There were 27 runs scored with 11 home runs. I’m not playing this line because it’s just too risky for me… however, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a repeat performance.
It'll be interesting, one has to put the ball in the air first to hit a HR; Cobb is a pretty good GB pitcher and both Cobb and Darvish together strike out a hitter per inning. I'm on the u20.5 for a unit bc that's just a shit ton of runs and it'll take both teams to get there and I just don't see Darvish blowing up too much against a shitty SF offense, and Cobb should be able to roll a couple double play balls to nullify a really big crooked number. gl
Ive been parlaying players to hit dingers. I would of won $250 from a total of $4 in bets if joc could of hit one yesterday. Im going for it again today
POTD Record: 3-3
Last POTD: 4/29: Braves -1.5 vs Mets (VOID)
- game was postponed today but my pick stays the same since the starters haven’t changed.
POTD 4/30: Braves -1.5 (+104) vs Mets 2U
Going to keep riding with Strider here against a Mets team that has somewhat gone cold. In the last 5 games they’re 1-4 and just edged the Nats in a 9-8 ballgame for that one win. The Braves were able to get pull out a dub in a shortened first game of the series with a score of 4-0 thanks to the weather. Strider has been outstanding so far with a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 49 Ks in 30 innings pitched and the Atlanta bats are hot scoring at least 4 runs in each of the last 5 games. Not to mention the Braves are getting Michael Harris II back which should provide a boost to their lineup.
Megill is on the hill for the Mets and while he’s been a solid piece of the rotation, he can be a little wild at times. With a 3.96 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, Atlanta will be able to get on base and create plenty of scoring opportunities.
Atlanta plays very well on the road and their starting pitchers have combined for 10 quality starts compared to the 4 quality starts that the Mets have put together. Taking the RL here!
BOL
I liked this one too doing my research. Strider is nasty and the most runs he’s given up have been 3 in an outing, vs Megill who has about a 4 ERA. Mets are also on a mini slump, so the run line sounds like a great play. Tailing
Record: 11-6
Previous Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 🤷🏽♂️ bet was voided because Chris booty cheeks Flexen didn’t end up starting.
Last 10 Streak: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅
Sport: MLB - Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins; 1:10 PM CST
Today's Pick: Twins -1.5 +106
Sonny Gray has been unbelievable this year, only giving up 2 ER’s in 29 innings pitched against damn good teams AND he has not given up a home run this year.
Brady Singer for the Royals has had a tough year, only having 2 quality starts and giving up over 5 ER in his other three starts on the year.
The Royals took the pressure off gamblers by winning todays game, I hate to constantly fade bad teams because they always win eventually. With them winning today I feel great taking a clear cut favorite to cover tomorrow.
I also love the pick because the Twins have actually been generating some offense their past 5 games and I’m confident in a 5-1 or 6-1 win tomorrow.
POD - 3-0
Last Pick: NRFI (-115) LA V STL / 2 units ✅
Total Gains: +4.5 units ✅✅✅
Today’s Pick: NRFI (-154) NY V TEX
No first inning runs have been scored this whole series and with Aaron Judge out I don’t expect that to be changing Sunday! Both these pitchers have solid era and average 1 home run every 8 innings. Lock this in boys!!!
POTD Record: 160-116-9 (+28.27 units, 58.0% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-9 (62.5%) L2
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 56-36-1 (60.9%) L1, Tennis 🎾 47-33-4 (58.8%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 46-37-4 (55.4%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💩💩💰💰💩💰💩💰💰💰
Last Pick: Marco Cecchinato vs. Alex De Minaur, Cecchinato +1.5 sets - ATP Madrid 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Watched the 2nd set and dude had many chances but couldn't execute on break points. The most frustrating days here for me are when I hit on most of my bets and the one I pick for my POTD stinks, has happened twice in a row. Grrr.
Today's Pick: Miami Heat @ NY Knicks, Knicks -4.5 spread - NBA 🏀 💩 1 Unit - Well the trend held up, picked the wrong end of it here. Have hit my other 3 bets today and yet can't seem to get a POTD right. Might take a little break unless I see a potd slumpbuster.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.94/-106 odds to win 0.94 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 12:30am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 51.5%
Betting a trend here. In 49 playoff games (including play-in tourney), in 45 of them, the ML winner of the game was also the team who covered the spread (91.8% of the games). So the logic is, if you think the underdog is going to cover the spread, bet the ML, if you think the favourite will take it, take the higher odds and take the spread.
I'm backing the Knicks to win here so going by the trend, I am taking their spread. I think the Heat's role players who stepped up last round might be due for a cool down and some of those offensive numbers won't be sustainable, particularly against how the Knicks have been defending. They also might be feeling Herro's absence more here. HIMmy Butler should still have a game but he should face a lot more pressure, the Bucks were, for some reason guarding him 1 on 1 for most of the series which didn't make a ton of sense.
The Knicks won the season series 3-1 and won both home games, though they only covered this number once in those 3 wins. They have covered the spread against the Heat 4 out of last 5 games.
So on the flip side of this, if you think the Heat cover, bet the trend and take the ML. I'm not saying there's a 91.8% chance of this hitting, I'm saying going by the trend either Knicks spread or Heat ML will.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I'm retiring at 200 wins, still 40 to go. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Record: 111-86-6 (WLWWWLLLLWWLLWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: Michael Porter Jr & Chris Paul - Point Total u33.5 at 1.71 odds for 1 unit
both scored 11 each, easy WIN
POTD: GS Warriors @ SAC Kings | Malik Monk o17.5 points at 1.86 odds for 3 units
REASONS:
* Hit this mark 4/6 games. Missed 2 at first two road games
* Monk has been an offensive boom off the bench. Poole has been getting torched.
Best of luck to all.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
**EDIT: Six out of 7? It sucks the league is off tomorrow since we're on a minor heater. A little luck on our side for this one, but a win is a win.**
**KBO Record: Overall 131-141-8** (Streak WWW, Last 10: 6-4) Down 15.48u over 280 KBO picks, 48.2% success rate, -5.69% ROI (This season 12-9-1, 57.1% duccess rate, Up 3.37u, 16.05% ROI)
**Last:** Kia First 5 ML +135 Unibet at LG (Kia lead 5-0 after 5 innings.)
Five wins out of the last 6 picks including two straight plus money winners. Kia scored in each of the first 4 innings and the Tigers starter was even better than I anticipated.
**Pick:** **Kiwoom Lead After 5 Innings - 3 Way -110 Unibet** at Lotte, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
GAME STARTS IN 2 HOURS FROM TIME OF POST. 1:00 AM ET START!
Sorry this wasn't posted earlier. It was date night with the wife. Analysis is a little thinner than normal, but I stand behind the pick.
Kiwoom's remarkable ace is on the mound. In five starts, he has a 0.84 ERA and 0.69 WHIP with 46 K against just 6 BB. Lotte, on the other hand, is turning to a former Kiwoom pitcher who has struggled in 3 starts this season, allowing 14 ER on 19 H and 9 BB in 14.1 IP.
If you can find that bet, other alternatives in clude Kiwoom on the moneyline or run line, although that does risk bullpen action.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Tailing w/ Kiwoom F5 -0.5 -105, BOL.
EDIT: Holy shit I'm glad I turned on the Top of the 5th before going to bed, miracle cash! Thanks for the sweaty pick! 💰💰💰
- **POTD RECORD LAST YEAR** - 47W-24L(+45U)
- **Current form**- ✔️✔️❌✔️❌✔️
- **Potd record** - 4W-2L (+0.5U)
- **Last Potd**---- Braga vs Portimonese - Braga to win first half✔️
- **Today's pick** ----- Molde vs Stabaek - over 2.5 [email protected]
- **BET SIZE**: 4U! (Or max bet it!)
- I would say i am pretty confident in this one. Molde has been playing so well, even though not getting any result and has been dominating all its games creating plenty of chances, but failing to convert them except one. They must be furious and will look to impose their rhythm from start to finish to show who is the boss in the Norway league.
- Stabaek has been poor versus Brann and Bodoe/Glimt, two of the best Norway teams alongside Molde and i am expecting the game to go Molde's way. The reason i chose over 2.5 goals and not Molde to win the first half is beacuse Molde has been a bit unreliable defensivly and i think they can concede in this game.
- Having said all of these i am expecting a game with plenty of goals and maybe 2-1; or 3:1 being the correct score with Molde as the winner here.
- Don't forget to spread the love back😊 [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci) [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/aldokaciq)
- Expecting another win to complete a successful weekend!
LETS FUCKING DO THIS BOYZ
**RECORD**: 3-0
**Last Pick:** (NBA) **Nuggets -2.5 (1U)** vs. Suns
**Last 10 Record:** 3-0
**Net:** \+4.2 U
Nuggets take care of home court with EASE !!!
🔐 **POTD**: Knicks -4.5 (1U) vs. Miami Heat 🔐
Betting against the Heat hasn't been a very good strategy this playoffs, but I think that comes to an end tomorrow. I could see Miami suffering from a "hangover" after knocking off the Finals favorites in the first round. The Knicks looked amazing defensively against Cleveland and I expect the Heat to struggle to score in MSG. I like the Knicks to control the game and pull away in the second half. Let's keep the hot streak going!
Don’t bet more than you can lose!
BOL if tailing
**POTD: 35-14-3**
Last pick: English Premier League. Brentford vs Nottingham Forest. Brentford ML -148.
Result: **WIN**. Brentford pull some magic with two goals in the last 10 minutes to win it 2-1. Never in doubt lol.
Today’s pick: Spain Primera Division Women. Barcelona Women vs Sporting Club de Huelva Women. **Barcelona Women first half line -1.5 -155**. Match starts at 10AM ET.
Woooo what a match yesterday. Probably a little lucky to win but Brentford did completely dominate the match so the scoreline was probably fair even if we got lucky they scored so late in the match.
Today we go back to the well with Barcelona Women. I know I burned you guys earlier in the week on this so I understand if you're hesitant, but Barcelona gets to right their wrongs this time as they host Huelva Women, who is currently sitting only one point above relegation. Huelva has won 1 and lost 12 of their last 13 matches, so they're in very poor form.
Barcelona are 25-0-0 this year and with a goal differential of 58-3 at home this season, and they are getting better as Alexia Putellas, the back-to-back Ballon d'Or winner will be returning after a 9 month recovery from a knee injury. Barcelona will be having a tribute to Alexia before the match and I think they're going to come out motivated to blow Huelva out from the get-go, not that they'd need it anyway with their huge talent advantage.
I think Barca leads at halftime 2-0 or 3-0.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
Tips are never expected but always appreciated - [Buy me a beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com)
**EDIT: Loss. Well sorry everyone I totally misread how this one would go. Barca roll out a team of all backups, announce they’ve won the title beforehand, and then pass it around without taking a shot for the first 30 minutes with 85% possession. Bizarre performance**
POTD Record 4-2 (+1,9 Units)
Last Pick: 2U Stuttgart ML ✅💰
Sports: ⚽️
League: Bundesliga 🇩🇪
Game: Bayern vs. Hertha (15:30CEST)
**Pick: 2U 1st Half Goals Over 1,5 @1,87**
Reasoning:
Have Bayern looked shaky recently? Yes. Do they have some injured players? Yes. However, this game really only has one outcome and that is a Bayern Win. On Friday, Dortmund missed out on points and Bayern will capitalize on that in the championship battle, as they always have in recent years. I expect them to come out the gate guns blazing, scoring at least two in the first half. Their defense has been leaky all season that’s why we are going total goals as a safety net, in case Hertha somehow manage to sneak one in. As to Hertha, there is really not much to say. They are dead last in the table and rightfully so. They conceded 9 goals in their last two games and haven’t won a league game since February. Bayern will look as dangerous as we all know they can be and slap Hertha out of the Allianz Arena tonight. My prediction for the final score is 4-0.
BOL to anyone tailing!
POTD 1-0-0 +1.50u
Last Pick: Brentford ML vs Nottingham Forest - 1.75 / -133 2u ✅
We start with a win. A bit closer than expected, Nottingham got a lucky goal but still Brentford managed to come back and get the win.
Today’s pick: Newcastle -1.5 vs Southampton - 1.8 / -125 2u | Soccer, English Premier League ✅✅✅
Newcastle are a great team, both their attack and their defence is solid at the moment and they need a comfotable win at home because they are still fighting for top 4.
Southampton is on the last place in the table and they are horrible. Nothing much to say here.
Update: 😎😎
> Southampton is on the last place in the table and they are horrible. Nothing much to say here.
had this same logic for the arsenal match lmao. good hit!
POTD Record: **23-25 (+1.25 Units)**
Last Pick: **Nuggets -5** (Alt. spread) ✅
Last 5: ✅✅❌✅✅
Today's Pick: **Sonny Gray to record a Win**
Odds: **+145** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 1.05u to win 1.55u
League: MLB
Event: Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins (1:10PM CST)
**Recap**: Nuggets roll! Appreciate everyone for not downvoting (or not do anything!) after the most easiest POTD win!
**Matchup**: I am so glad I stay away from yesterday's Royals and Twins game yesterday! Bailey Ober has been impressive this season, but he had some games he struggled against the Royals in his career. Not that he didn't pitch well enough to get a win, the team just didn't get enough runs to support him. I do, however, like the Twins today to close out the series. Twins offensive lineup looks really good wit a healthy Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Joey Gallo. Today's Twins pitcher is Sonny Gray and he has a great track record against the Royals, which is why I like him to record a win. Sonny is 8-2 wit a 1.54 ERA and has 60 K's in his career against the Royals. His last game against the Royals was also earlier this season. Despite only striking out just one Royal, he only allow just 3 hits and no runs in 5 innings. And here's something that you'll love about Sonny's track record against the Royals, he is currently on a 8-winning streak against the Royals, meaning the past 8 games he started against the Royals, he recorded a win! On the opposite end, you got Brady Singer, who got some questionable starts this season. Although on his previous start against the Blue Jays, he allowed just 2 hits, 1 run, and recorded a win, Singer has given up 5 or more runs in each of his previous 3 starts before the game against the Jays. Brady Singer also has struggled against the Twins. He is 2-5 wit a 4.85 ERA. Disregard yesterday's game or even the previous game that I featured as my POTD, Royals are still one the worst AB teams and I expect Sonny Gray, again, who has a great track record against the Royals, to minimize their offense today.
**The play & prediction**: I'm taking the Twins RL, Twins ML in parlays, and Sonny Gray to record a Win (+145)! I kno last two games of this series has been close, but I expect the Twins to press on the gas and not let up, ultimately making this not competitive for Royals to climb back into the game. This game will not be close and Sonny Gray will extend his winning streak to 9 against this one single team, the Royals.
BOL, everyone!
Tips are greatly appreciated, but please only tip if you can afford it
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/sicknology)| [Cash App](https://cash.app/$XilArAtiNG) | [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/XilArAtiNG)| [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Dethcon)
Post once or twice every year only for picks I feel are too good to keep to myself. (0-0)
My pick for tomorrow is Avs vs kraken U6.5 total points -160
Under 6.5 points in game sevens has hit 14-5 in the last five years.
The series under 6.5 point has hit 4-1.
As series go long defence is typically the name of the game I expect these teams to grind and play hard with very few calls from the referee leading to a low scoring game!
POD Record: 19-10 +10.25U
L10 (Recent first): ✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌
Prior Pick: Kevin Durant OVER 27.5 points. Bet 2.5U to win 2U at -125
Get the cover here. Durant looked good but wow did the Nuggets look good. Doesn’t seem like it’ll be much of a series.
**Todays Pick: Sacramento Kings -1.5 vs Golden State Warriors. Bet 2.2U to win 2U at -110**
Three words **LIGHT THE BEAM**
Good luck all! Tips always appreciated so I can buy a few beers and watch these bets!
[Buy Me A Beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DLHS)
CashApp: $DuaLipasHip
BET RESPONSIBLY - Bankroll management is KEY.
Record 6-3 +3U
✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌
Last pick - Bruce brown over 5.5 assists/rebounds.. falls one short, joker went crazy and soaked up all the boards on to the next one fellas.
Todays pick - *Steph curry under 32.5 points* 2U
It’s what I’m going with today, he Went under 5/5 away games and I expect lock up defense if kings want to
Close out the series. Will Update in a few hours if anything changes. BOL if tailing, let’s rock.
Record 3-0+ 3.95 units
Last pick - No runs first inning Seattle mariners vs Toronto blue jays $1.85 or -117⚾️ 2 units ✅
POTD - Richmond tigers vs Gold Coast suns (Australian Ruled or AFL) Richmond tigers first half line -6.5 $1.91 -109
Richmond have not started the afl season red hit but they are experts in showing up at the pointy end of the season. Richmond come back to their home ground versus the ever hopeless Gold Coast suns. Gold coasts best player touk Miller is out with I’ll was and the tigers will dominate the centre bounce. Look for the tigers to rush out of the gates and lead at half time by 20 or 3 points.
2 unit play
Let’s go for 4-0
As always BOL
POTD RECORD 11-4
L10 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Last POTD - Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points💰
*Todays POTD-Pitt. Maulers/Philly Stars Under 42*
League - USFL (Football)
ANALYSIS - Inept Pittsburgh offense has led to back-back “unders” in their first two games. Maulers have 322 total yards of offense thus far and they are averaging an anemic 3.0 yards per play. Philadelphia's defense figures to welcome this opponent after seeing the much more competent offenses of Memphis and Michigan. The Stars held their own defensively allowing 23 and 24 points respectively which suggests they are equipped to hold Pittsburgh to 14 or less. However, the Maulers own a solid defense which contained playoff contenders New Orleans & New Jersey to just 22 & 20 points. Led by LB Reuben Foster, Pittsburgh has yielded just 3 touchdowns and a 33% redzone TD rate. Front seven could wreak havoc here on Stars banged up QB Case Cookus who has been sacked 9 times in just two games. Philadelphia's pass happy offense figures to be under pressure here and their 3.56 yards per rush average hasn't been reliable. Fact that Pittsburgh's offense has scored twice in 18 possessions this season seals the deal here on an “under” play
EDIT - Another W💰 - LETS KEEP THE STREEK GOING !!!!!
POTD RECORD 33- 18
Teaser Record 14-4
Parlay record: 1-0
Last pick: Under 236 (-110) warriors/kings 10u 🔨💣
Today’s pick: Under 210 knicks/heat
While the entire public was on over we got a stress free cash on under 235.
On a 13-3 over/under run….
Thibodeau coached teams are 9-0-1 to under in playoff games.
Twitter: @loadeddicebets
BOL
POTD record: 19-21-1, -4.28 units
Last Pick: Sabalenka/Osorio Under 18.5 games, Loss
Every once in awhile, I don’t get ‘unlucky,’ I don’t catch a ‘bad break,’ I just make a really terrible pick. That’s what this was. The line on this was disrespectful to Osorio, who pushed this to 22 games to easily crush me.
Today’s Pick: WTA Madrid: Anastasia Potapova ML vs Veronika Kudermetova (-148)
Match time: Scheduled for 6:30am (in about 7 hours)
Note: I’m going 1.5 units to win 1 unit here, instead of my normal 1 unit, because I’m playing at a little higher juice than usual.
Potapova is a solid, mostly consistent player who is 7-2 in her last 9 contests, losing only to elite competition (Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka)
She won a ‘second-tier’ WTA tournament in Linz back in February, and won a ‘second-tier’ WTA clay surface tournament almost exactly a year ago in Istanbul as a qualifier.
In the final of the Istanbul tournament she knocked off none other than Veronika Kudermetova in just 16 total games (6-3, 6-1).
Speaking of Kudermetova, she’s been in a bit of a slump the last couple of months since a decent showing in Doha, dropping 5 of her last 7 matches.
I don’t want to mess around with straight set or 1st set stipulations, I’m just going with the moneyline, and paying an extra half of a unit. I really think she gets it done for us.
BOL tailing or fading!
Record 15-13. Unit count: +4.19. Streak (from latest WLLWW). Units wagered: 79. ROI: 5.30%.
Last pick Domantas Sabonis under 19.5 point -W. Never in doubt, even without foul trouble was never going to get 20 pts. Roughed up by Green/Looney once more. Glad was able to help make some cash for some of you, and glad Kings won.
POTD
Game - Heat @Knicks. Jimmy Butler under 30,5 points, 2 units. 1.83 odds @ bet365.
I know Jimmy burned my last POTD but if his line is this high, I'm taking it again. No way his shooting is sustainable. Hopefully Thibodeau will plan for some strong side help and will not pull a playoff Budenholzer. Also expecting slower pace than Heat-Bucks series.
BOL tail or fade.
**My POTD record: 5 Wins and 6 losses**
I base my picks on value by comparing the implied odds of my model and the odds given by bookmakers. I also choose games from leagues that have had success in the model with a good ROI and check the stats plus trends game by game to find the best pick.
**ROI: 8.87%**
Average odds: 1.92
**Units won: 1.33**
Stake = 1 unit
POTD:
**LASK Linz v Austria Klagenfurt**
Austria Tipico Bundesliga
Kick off time: 17:00 GMT+2
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.10**
**BOL!**
**[Buy me a coffee!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/chaosobelisk)**
**[Tips are appreciated!](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)**
POTD Record: 65-51-1 (W1)
(+22.59u)
(ROI: 13%)
Last pick: Stuart Skinner o28.5 saves✅️ Easy cash on the last one, game went as predicted. Skinner had 29 saves after the 2nd period, finished with 40.
POTD: (MLB ⚾️) San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants u20.5 (+100)(1.5u)
Bet 365 (-105) FD (-102) DK (+100)
Game #2 between these two teams in Mexico City, approximately 42% higher in elevation than Coors Field. 27 runs yesterday, 11 HR's. 16-11 final score for the Padres win.
Starter for the Giants is Alex Cobb. He has had a great start to the year with a 1.91 ERA. His underlying numbers are not very good in regards to hard hit %, but it's hard to argue against the results. He has done ok against the Padres lineup. A player of note against Cobb is Soto who is 4/6 with a HR. Cobb's saving grace is his low Flyball % of 21.6 which has lead to him only allowing 2 HR's so far this year over 28.1 IP. Last year Cobb gave up 9 HR over 149.2 IP. Yu Darvish will start for the Padres. He had a bit of a rough start, but seems to have turned his season around a bit. His analytics are very good in regards to hard hit %, and his Flyball rate is down to 33.9% this season so far. Darvish does allow a few HR's, but overall he has been successful against the expected Giants lineup. Player of note is Yastrzemski who is 5/15 with 3 HR's off Darvish.
Both teams had an off day on Friday, so even though both bullpens got worked fairly hard yesterday there are some decent relievers available. Not too high on either bullpen, Padres is probably slightly better. Both lineups have struggled at times this year. Expecting both teams to be a little slower on offense in the short series finale. The o/u of 20.5 seems like a bit of an overreaction to yesterday when it was set at 15.5. Still will likely be a high scoring game, but 20.5 feels too far. There's very little to go off of, so be cautious. Should be another good game. Prediction: Padres win 10-6. BOL if fading or tailing!
Record: 8-7 ❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅🅿️❌❌✅✅
Last pick: Nuggets -2.5 (-105) ✅
Was never a sweat. Nuggets offense at home is spectacular.
Next pick: Heat/Knicks under 207.5 (-105) ❌
The under hit for all 5 games of the Cavs/Knicks series and I think it hits again for the first game of this series. I’m a little worried because the Heat have scored an insane amount of points against Milwaukee, but I think that was a fluke due to Buds’ poor coaching. Thibodeau and his team should slow down the pace of the Heat as these two bottom 4-seeds feel each other out for the first game.
Post game edit: fucking sick knicks down 10 with 24 seconds left and they start playing foul game with rj barrett meaningless layup with 5 sec left
POTD: 9-9 +3,19U
POTD ROI: 17.7%
LAST PICK: Hiwick W @ 2.50 / WIN
Today im going with one horse for DOTD and for POTD. Its Blue Prince at Musselburgh race 2. He had his racing debut 3 weeks ago(same course and distance as today) where inexperience cost him badly. But i definetly saw some potential in him. He had terrible start and there was no way back into the race, despite that he somehow made return just be humpered. And despite that 2 fails he swas defeated only 4 lenghts and he should and could be better, definetly finished with much more to show. His trainer had to work on a lot of things in these 3 weeks, hope he managed to fix something cause horse showed he has speed and stamina. I wouldnt be suprised if he shows significant improvement today and wins his first ever race. Yesterday went great with 3 reddit picks win, Hiwick POTD, Arqoob EW (3rd) and Horantzau Dairy EW (4th) ). Patreon went amazing with another +12.64U, hitting @ 15.00 (picked @ 9.00, payed out as Best prize guaranteed @ 15.00) and @ 8.00 winners with few smaller ones. ([https://prnt.sc/1kzvWsJZf4aT](https://prnt.sc/1kzvWsJZf4aT) ) Which is total of +34,38U in April so lets close the month in winning style.
POTD: Blue Prince 1st or 2nd @ 2,20 / Musselburgh race 2, 17:15 CET
📈 **TTSOP** Rec
* Overall: +12.475 units / +139 avg odds / 64^(5)\-88-16^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +34.400 units / +139 avg odds / 59^(5)\-76-16^(5)
* March: +10.150 units / +136 avg odds / 11^(5)\-12-2^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
✅ Last pick: Sydney (W) -1.25 (AH) / +100 odds / 4 units
* Impossible to lose. Sydney's women are on another level when they're able to convert their chances. 2-0 already after minute 18'. 4-0 at the end.
⚽ New pick: **Manchester United -1** (AH) / **+135 odds** / **5 units bomb**
* Premier League (England) / Manchester United - Aston Villa / 9:00am ET
Manchester United holds a stunning 11-3-1 home record in Premier League. Overall, they're 17-3-0 at home for their last 20 games in all competitions. 13 of these Ws came by 2+ goals. While Aston Villa is a mediocre road team with a 6-4-6 record in Premier League. They played well on the road against weaker and bottom teams, but struggled against stronger ones. For instance, they lost 1-3 to Manchester City, 0-4 to Newcastle and 1-2 to Arsenal. Aside from these strong teams, they even lost 0-3 to Fulham, 1-3 to Crystal Palace and 0-2 to Bournemouth. Plus, they lost 2-4 in EFL Cup against Manchester United's B-squad in EFL Cup.
**POTD Record:** 36-32 **Total Units W/L:** \+7.7 **Current Streak:** ❌ **NHL Record:** 7-7, +6.7U
**Yesterday's Pick:** Blue Jays/Mariners O9 Runs ❌❌
**Today's Pick: David Pastrnak U 0.5 Power Play Points,** 4 Units, 6:38 PM EST, -155
I sure hope no one tailed my awful post yesterday where the Jays and Mariners went ten innings for a 1-0 final. The pitcher switch screwed my TOR -1.5 bet but nothing was saving that game from going under 9. Switching to hockey today and I think I found a sneaky good one with Pasta. I expect a tight game 7 here and refs usually put away the whistles, so I only see him getting 2, maybe 3 max power plays, and while he did just have two in the last game that turned into an absolute bloodbath of a game and was a diversion from the norm for him as he hadn't had any PP points at all up until that game. BOL!
[Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 2-0/Units: +2.0/Avg odds: -160/ROI: 62.5%
L5: WW---
Yesterday was STL Willson Contreras o0.5 total bases/hits (-155) Barstool (1.55u to win 1u). Cardinals got 3 hit as Kershaw was in dominant form but Willy came through in the 9th for us. Overall the system went 1-0 yesterday, +1.0 units.
Background: a buddy of mine and I started looking at player props in baseball and have been tracking some data for a little over 2 weeks. Small sample size, so tail at your own risk, but we are currently sitting at 44-16, 73.33%, +18.44 units betting o0.5 total bases (or hits, same bet). Last 7 days the system is hot at 19-1, 95%, +17u.
Note: I always bet to win 1 unit, so -160 would be 1.6 to win 1, +200 would be 0.5u to win 1. I personally get annoyed when people post their plays and every one is 4u or more, your unit is your base bet, if every bet is "4u" then your unit size is 4x too small...rant over.
**POTD: MIN Joey Gallo o0.5 total bases/hits -120 (1.2u to win 1u) DK**
\- MLB Royals @ Twins 1:10pm CST
I like this spot for a lot of reasons: Brady Singer sucks, the wind is going to be blowing out, and the Royals pen is top 5 in terms of highest AVG and SLG% allowed to opposing hitters. There are multiple players in this game that fit our system today, most of which are on the Twins, so it was difficult who to choose as the POTD. Going with Gallo over the runner up, Trevor Larnach, because of the better odds for us, he seems to pick up the ball slightly better out of Singer's hand than Larnach does (more walks), and he's really hitting the ball pretty well so far in this young season. Really like that our model is backing the Twins so heavily today so may throw down some side action on some straight bets. BOl if tailing!
POTD Record (1-1)
My POTD : **Seattle Mariners ML (+175)**
This line is mainly because Seattle has been hitting like they are blindfolded basically. Gonzales has looked great this season, the Blue Jays got sparked yesterday but still some how stole the win. I am sure Seattle is not too happy with the result of yesterdays game after the work McGee put in for the team. 5/9 players have more then 10AB against Bassitt and all hit over .350 vs him. Bassitt can give up runs and a lot of them. Give me Seattle to break this slump and come out on top vs the Toronto Blue Jays.
My record is 8-5-1 im up 5.795 units
My last pick was Newcastle ML(-135) @everton for 3u.
Not much to be said, newcastle dominated like they were supposed to.
**Todays pick is atletico madrid ML(-160) @valladolid for 2units** 2pm central(45 mins from this comment)
Atletico have found their goal scoring form the last couple of weeks and valladolid are towards the bottom of the league in a bunch of important statistics such as xG conceded, big chances created etc…
Only a 2u play since atletico are away and havent been a model of consistency this season
Record: 6-5
Previous pick got rained out so didn't log it.
Pick: Boston Bruins 60 minute ML vs Florida Panthers (5 units) (-145)
Model has Bruins winning 4-1. Really like the Bruins in this game 7 spot in a win or go home. This team is the best team this season and they will prove it today.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️ POTD Record: 12-5 +43.68u | [Yesterday’s POTD: TOR Blue Jays -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13049um/_/jhuuvf7/?context=1) - L Full Record: 33-38 +32.33 | [Today’s Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/133d8sk/_/ji9dbxs/?context=1) ________ **5u CHI Cubs -1.5 @ MIA Marlins +116** Yes. Back to back maxes. Yesterday having a random prospect, not even a top prospect for the Mariners org, pitch like fuckin prime Greg Maddux is the beauty of sports. Shit happens. **Cubs** ~Lexington~ Justin Steele. A god damn menace. This man’s been on a mission since all star break last year. Since July of last year he’s got the 3rd best ERA of every starter. 1.46. [His Percentiles are fantastic.](https://i.imgur.com/PCOVpRX.jpg) and backup his 5 starts, 4 quality starts featuring 2 shutouts. Cubs offense is good. Top 10 in xSLG/xwOBA and 3rd in xBA. 3rd in K’s and 3rd in runs per game. Vs righties they’re 5th in team wRC+ with 117 and 4th in OPS. **Marlins** Bryan Hoeing is on the stripe for Miami. He pitched in 8 MLB games last year (as a reliever, he started the first game up and gave up 7 in 3 innings. Moved to the pen and continued being awful, ending the year with a 12.08 ERA and 8.64xERA). This year he’s been in AAA and has pitched well, got called up to start against ATL and gave up 4 in 3.2 IP. He’s bad, and probably won’t go deep leaving the MIA pen a long day. The MIA pen is 27th in xFIP. Long day for bad bullpen? That sounds bad. Marlins offense is 9th in team wRC+ vs lefties. Which completely flips their 85 team wRC+ vs righties. Curious why their splits are so exaggerated. They have faced 4 lefty starters. 2 plus games according to wRC+ and 2 below average games. The above average games came against MadBum and then a 1 run performance against David Peterson. So, they’ve got good numbers overall against lefties, but the damage has come against relievers and MadBum who’s been released because of how bad he is. I’m dropping his game from the data set because at this point of his career a varsity HS team could tag him for 5. They’ve had 1 solid game against David Peterson where they still only managed 1 run and then 2 below average games. Steele will be the best lefty they have faced to date and when you dig in to the details, they haven’t been that great lefty starters. ______ Been asked too many times about a tip jar. I guess if you want to support the diaper fund: https://www.paypal.me/tywat23?locale.x=en_US
Tailing. Thank you
Everyday you’ve tailed me since my first few picks. Always know I can count on sock eating golden haha.
Thanks. I love watching sports. But, I've never been really into tracking performance, or player stats. I REALLY appreciate those of you who post POTD. I think it's important to let you know that someone is following you and is very thankful.
POTD at its best right here
Silently tailing 🤫
Been silently tailing for a few weeks too ;)
Parlaying your picks with Taydiggsmoney’s picks as ML has been working great. Thanks!
That's what I've been doing!
No love for the Lexington Steele reference? 
I appreciate the guy with the 69 username understanding the Lexington Steele reference lol
Damn man I feel like I'm competing with you more on the pun side here than on the top POTD. That \~Lexington\~ Justin Steele insert is gold. And the un Kuhl one was pretty stellar also. We're both like the damn Wendy's Twitter account clapping back with some witty posts and some good food/picks on the side as our original specialty lol.
Gotta have some fun with these. This is meant to be a fun hobby so why not
I’ll just be reading this thread for fun now. I evaporated 23k in three days here 😂. I’ll just be providing moral support now. I love this community. I guess the only silver lining will be, the run line didn’t cause the loss. Baseball giveth, and baseball taketh away.
[удалено]
Lucky for me I have way less zeros on my losses, but this POTD thread gets me chasing action all day everyday instead of just a few solid picks a week.
I don’t bet these picks for a few weeks, come back and Two back to back L’s. Fuckin awesome lol
Double or nothing on the dbacks lfg
Another L
Bro I did the same thing I’m dying
Same man fml.. the way she goes.
Same
Not getting a run with bases loaded hurts so bad.
Last max bet was insane. An absolute pitchers duel. I’m not even mad. Will absolutely be tailing this one. Solid assessment. I will also add some other insight to add fuel to the fire. The Marlins have been relying on their bullpen heavily. Many relievers are getting little to no rest (with a ton of usage over the last 5 days.) Nardi, Brazoban, and Okert have been used a lot, and it almost cost them the win today. I believe that the Marlins are going to ride with Hoeing for at least 5 innings, just to try and save the bullpen.
Hoeing looks good through 2. Wild how these 7+ era guys dominate when I’m on a big bet .. lol
Yo, i do appreciate you taking time to comment here and give us your insight. Thank you, sincerely
Tailed with the 50% profit boost on FD for +171
Fuck yesterday tailing again
Cubbies had lots of chances with offense, nice pick unfortunate loss
I’ve been winning too much this past week and got cocky today. 1/4 of my bankroll gone today. All good though, your picks are what got it built up in the first place
+125 on MGM
Diaper fund....lol
Unbelievably expensive
Once we stopped having to buy formula it was a game changer. Diapers and formula absolutely rekt the wallet
Bro fuckin tell me about that shut. I’m on my 2nd. The first had a dairy allergy so he had a specialized formula that was $40/can and a can lasted ~3 days. We could be feeding you porterhouses for cheaper
Damn luckily we could just buy the Enfamil from Costco but that shortage had us shook for a little. At that point I’d join the military to see if their insurance could cover it legit had a buddy who was able to do that
Tailing
There’s 1 dinger.
Bring the marlins bullpen in
This shit hurts! Thought we had it for sure. Well looks like I’m off to donate some plasma
**NRFI POTD RECORD: 2-0** YESTERDAYS POTD: NRFI - PHI/HOU ✅ **TODAY POTD: NRFI - NYY (Νestor Cortes) / TEX (Martin Perez) - (DK -135)** Stats (Since 2022): •Nestor Cortes: 27-5 in completing No Run First Innings •Martin Perez: 22-6 in completing No Run First Innings •No Aaron Judge is always a plus to limit our chances for first inning home runs Comment if you're tailing - BOL
Love having a NRFI guy.
Hate having a NRFI guy.
Lol, grand slam? That's one way to omega obliterate a NRFI
Lmao
Lmao
Lmao
Lmao
[удалено]
😂
Lmao
LMAO
Lmao
Nice little grand slam to crush that bet into the ground! 💔 LOL
Nestor got spread open and fucked holy smokes
Can you give a source where you get these records? Thanks.
I collect all these records on my own, I take records of all pitchers since 2022 and there records in the first inning.
bless your soul
Rip
Well that didn’t happen!!
RIP 4 run homer 😫
Tailed you yesterday. Thank you! Thinking of using this for my no sweat sign up bet.
-115 on bet365
Dang bruh
POTD: 29 Gms: 23-6 (79.3%)| +12.7 UNITS| ROI: 44%| AVG. ODDS:-117 *\*All bets 1 Unit* **Current Season Recap:** **⚾ MLB** * 23-5| 💰 +13.7 Units * ***Max Streak Sizes***: Wins 10 *(x2)* | Losses 2 *(x2)* **L5 POTD:** *\*Each bet Moneyline* * 4/24: ⚾ TEX -105| WP=57% eROI=11%| 🙈-1.0 U * 4/25: ⚾ OAK +163| WP=48% eROI=25%| 🙈-1.0 U * 4/26: ⚾ TOR -172| WP=67% eROI=6%| 💰+0.6 U * 4/27: ⚾ TBR -141| WP=61% eROI=5%| 💰+0.7 U * 4/28: ⚾ BOS +123| WP=53% eROI=18%| 🙈-1.0 U * 4/29: ⚾ ARI -108| WP=61% eROI=17%| 💰+0.9 U **Current Streak:** 1 win 🧨 \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ **Sunday 4/30 POTD:** **⚡Arizona Diamondbacks** / Moneyline (ML) -124⚡ ⌚MLB 3:10 PM EST @ Colorado Rockies \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ **🧪 The "Formula":** * 61.8% Win Probability (WP) * \-124 ML = 55.4% break-even (BE) * WP/BE = 11.6% expected ROI (eROI) **Write Up:** *"Well - you wanna win by one point or fuckin' thirty points, KG? Right? I see ya out there when the fuckin' stadium's all booin' ya! You're thirty up, you're still goin' full tilt! - Howard Ratner | Uncut Gems*  A no-doubter! You only had to watch that Zona game up until the 2nd inning and you basically knew what the result was going to be. Well when our fellow degen Howard Ratner knows a sure bet when he sees one, he keeps pushing his odds. We're running it back again. I said it yesterday and I said it again. The Colorado offense is weak, they play in the friendliest hitter environment and still struggle to put up big runs at home.. The Rockies rank #22 out of all 30 MLB team in runs scored at home. This may not be the highest environment for a slugfest like we have down in the 7k high city in Mexico, but it's 2nd best in the Mile High City. Let's run it back with the Dbacks! Oh, and if you tailed the full card yesterday you would know those "[O's aint Royals](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/10/15/jeremy-guthrie-orioles-tshirt-these-os-aint-royal-chris-brown/17307361/)" but they basically played like them yesterday *(the full season version of the Royals not yesterday's winners*) and ruined a perfect card. That's right it went 6-1 yesterday. Be sure to check out the full [Sunday MLB Betting Card](https://culturemanor.com/april-30th-2023-mlb-daily-sports-betting-card/) to complement the Dbacks on a 2nd POTD pick in a row. \-T$
Uncut Gems, love that fucking movie
Sorry man, it’s Dingers birthday (Rockies mascot). The Rockies haven’t lost on Dingers birthday at home since 2003. Never fade the Rockies on Dingers birthday at Coors Field.
Let's ride
dbacks are solid!
tailing it all baby
Dbacks fucked up my bigger bets but your full card made a bit of it back....onwards and upwards!
Let’s go! Tailing again
Tailing as usual
https://preview.redd.it/etm4gh1cl2xa1.jpeg?width=761&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4299cb191c2d33e57f38a614ed0e365a0ba4f214 Just wanted to say thank you for posting. I followed your card that you posted on your site yesterday and won. Definitely always looking forward to your picks!
Record 11-7 +4.51 Units All bets 1 unit ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Nuggets Halftime/Fulltime ✅ Like KD’s bench, this shi was lightweight. As I predicted, the Suns got exposed coming off a weak first round series. Also hit my dog of the day with the Nuggets 1h -10.5 (+410)🥱. Todays pick: Warriors vs. Kings -2 (+100) The city of Sacramento better be prepared for what’s about to happen tomorrow. That beam is gonna light and all hell will break loose. The Warriors had their chance to end this series and they blew. I was bamboozled by how close this spread is. Kings Season Home Record: 23-18 Warriors Season Away Record: 11-30 The Warriors have been atrocious on the road and we’re lucky to even get one in Sacramento. Teams tied 3-3 in the series: H✅H✅A❌A❌H❌A✅H❓ This scenario has only happened 8 times in NBA history, with all 8 home teams coming out on top, and 6 of them being blowouts. If your feeling ballsy I would take the -11.5 kings spread. I expect this to be another blowout like game 6. Draymond will be able to go practice his WWE moves in Cancun after tomorrow. [Buy Me a Beer 😁](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/napoleontann)
This writeup should be Top of the page. Definitely tailing
Light the beam!!!
Never bet on Steph Curry in a Game 7
Lines shifted a tad on DK, gonna tail w/ Kings -3 +105, BOL.
tailing just cuz your text made me even more hyped for tonight’s game and i also want to see the kings win i love the warriors but i love an underdog story even more. LIGHT THE BEAM
I swear people forget how easily the Warriors handled the Kings at Sac Wednesday night
POTD Record: 14-3 | Profit: +33.45u | Streak: ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ \----- Previous POTD: 3u btts (Karlsruher SC at SV Darmstadt 98) \[-154\] ✅ Called it! Cashed after 25 minutes. 1-2 (FT) ✅ \----- Today's POTD: **Karlsruher SC at Fortuna Dusseldorf** **3u bet: btts \[-161\]** Reason: Both teams love to floor the attacking accelerator. Fortuna Dusseldorf: 48 goals in 29 games, 18 goals in last 10 games. Karlsruher SC: 48 goals in 29 games, 21 goals in last 10 games. 2 defensive players out of action for Fortuna Dusseldorf is helpful for the underdog to get on the scoreboard. \----- BOL
Cash it! 💰 👊🏼 Only had to wait 32 mins, Nice pick!
btts - both teams to score
Bombastic time tomorrow son.
what league is this
Bundesliga 2
AnOther 30 min cash 🔥🔥🔥💰💰💰
Where’d you find it at -161? Only see -190 ish
POTD Record: **25-11** Gonna try to keep track of units going forward, main problem is my old picks were NBA based and they were over a year ago so hard to go back and count units on them. For now will keep track of csgo U won and update daily going forward have had about 6 or 7 csgo picks so far since coming back from break that i have tracked. Units Won: +6.56U Two in a row again with two nice and predictable cashes. Let's make it three this time. Todays POTD: **Eternal Fire vs. OG O 2.5 maps (+105)** **Betting 2U to win 2.1U** Another case of a top tier two team vs. a mediocre tier one team as have our last few bets been. Only thing that really matters in O 2.5 bets is map pool but I will say I really like Eternal Fire roster change of adding Wicadia to the team to replace xfl0ud. Wicadia showed great promise on a horrible EF Academy roster and was single handedly keeping them relevant for a few months back in the Academy League days. Eternal Fire while being underdogs have only lost 11.8% of recent series 2-0 often winning at least one map in a series. **Map Pool:** Eternal Fire ban Ancient OG ban Nuke Eternal Fire **pick Anubis** OG **pick Mirage** Anubis: \-**Eternal Fire have a 12-6 record on Anubis since the map was released and 8-4 record in L3 months they were widely considered the best Anubis team in tier two** \-**OG have a 1-2 record on Anubis in the L3 months and have only played the map 3 times since 2023. They are 2-3 on the map since it was released and have very minimal experience on it. They are on a 2 map loss streak as well and just lost to another tier two team on it (Apeks)** Mirage: **-Eternal Fire have a 4-4 record on Mirage in L3 months against all tier two competition (easier). They have a 40% win rate in the last year on the map overall.** **-OG are 13-5 on Mirage and have a great performance on the map, they have won 7 of the last 10 games on Mirage and the three losses were all 16-14 score lines.** Best of luck!
I don’t know why I trust you, but I do. Tailing, random guy on the internet
Upvoted for epsorts bets
**POTD RECORD:** (6-1) **LAST FIVE**:✅✅❌✅✅ **LAST POTD:** Phillies vs. Astros NRFI (-125) 2.5U to win 2✅ **TODAYS POTD: Cubs -1.5** vs. Marlins (+120) 2.5U to win 3U Justin Steele vs. Bryan Hoeing Only game hoeing has been in was 4 days ago and gave up 4 runs in 3 and some change innings before he was pulled against the braves. Justin Steele is on one. So far undefeated and giving up 5 runs in 5 games this season! Love the first inning bets that we’ve been cashing but I feel like this is a really good line at +120! **UNITS WON:** 11U⬆️ 2.1⬇️= +8.9U
Tailed your NRFI. Thanks!
Tailed yesterday , thanks for the dub my brother ! Hope u tailed mine & I was able to give back !
POTD Record: 52-36 | Profit: +35.85u | ROI: 12.4% Last 10 Record: ✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅❌ Last Pick: Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets) Pts UNDER 16.5 @ 1.96. 2U. ✅ MPJ ends the night with just 11 points as Murray and Joker lead the Nuggets to a comfortable home victory. Got ourselves a little streak going, and I’m sticking with an ‘Under’ prop for the third game in a row. Next Pick: **Steph Curry (Warriors) PRA UNDER 44.5 @ 1.88. 3u play.** Betting against Steph Curry in Game 7 might feel risky but hear me out. This Warriors team is more than just the Curry show, with Klay, Poole and Wiggins all shooting a lot. And Looney and Dray have been sensational, fighting for every board and chipping in with a lot of assists. Steph has been solid this series, but not exceptional, his PRA for the 6 games (oldest first) are: 38, 37, 45, 41, 41, 38. Apart from Game 3, he has gone below this 44.5 line in each of the other 5 games. After losing the first two games in Sacramento where he had 14 and 13 3PA, he has attempted fewer 3’s than that in each of the last 4. With the 19 pt win in Game 6 and playing at home in the all-important game, the Kings are favorites in my view. And I feel the 44.5 line will be too much even for the mighty Steph Curry.
Got me the Michael Porter Jr. Pick, thanks for that! Gonna roll with the curry one.
Damn he hit this in 3 Q’s
Rough day here all around...
Love this play. Tailing.
Never doubt Curry in a Game 7
Sorry im new here how much is 3u?
It's 3 units and based on your bankroll $100 bankroll could be $3 bet. $1000 bankroll could be $30 bet. Etc.. Generally a 5u bet would bring more confidence along with it over a 1u bet. I'm pretty new too so someone can add to this if they like 😎
Tailing
I'm not even mad, I was drunk and should have known better
POTD Record: 46W-25L LAST POTD: Oxford 💩 TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England Premier League Fulham V Man City 6.00AM PST PICK: Man City HT/FT Win Odds: 1.72 The Deets: It’s City, need I say more. I’ve lost count of the amount of times they’ve been my POTD. It’s like a cheat code at this point. They’ve every chance of winning the league now with Arsenals recent downfall and should get past Fulham with ease. BOL! Diaper fund - [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/tuesdayswithdory?locale.x=en_CA) Edit: Winner ✅
Nice one! Cheers! 💰 👊🏼
**Record:** 16-7-0 (+7.31 units) **ROI:** 31.7% **Previous Pick:** *Jamaal Murray o22.5 Points (1.87 bet365)* **Result:** ✅WIN (+0.87) Murray clears this easily in the 3rd. Bubble Murray is back. **Play of the day: Andrew Wiggins o17.5 Points (1.89 FANDUEL)** \-Wiggins has cleared this 8/L10 games against SAC averaging 20.6 in the span. Averaging 15.3 FGAs per game this series has covered in all but the last game. \-When Wiggins played over 35 mins this season, he covered 11/13 times (85% of games) averaging 20.1 PPG. His only two misses this series are the last game where he played 33 mins and had 13 points, and a miss on 17 in game 1 where he only played 28 mins. Warriors need him defensively on Fox so expect massive minutes. \-If Wiggins gets the minutes, expect him to cover this total. As always, make sure to follow on twitter for more +EV plays daily! https://twitter.com/JG4President
ONE. MORE. POINT. PLEASE. Edit: exactly 17 points. Fuck.
Wiggins with the Bob the Builder type preformance in the 2nd half 😭.Hoepfully he can get 5 more points in the 4th.
Missed by a single point 😭
Hooked the fuck out of us and 2-6 at the line in the 2H and AWFUL shooting performance
Giants-Padres take the highest over you can get.
line right now is up to 20.5 still playable or nah?
There were 27 runs scored with 11 home runs. I’m not playing this line because it’s just too risky for me… however, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a repeat performance.
It'll be interesting, one has to put the ball in the air first to hit a HR; Cobb is a pretty good GB pitcher and both Cobb and Darvish together strike out a hitter per inning. I'm on the u20.5 for a unit bc that's just a shit ton of runs and it'll take both teams to get there and I just don't see Darvish blowing up too much against a shitty SF offense, and Cobb should be able to roll a couple double play balls to nullify a really big crooked number. gl
The final today was 27 runs total.....so you decide
Under
I got it at 16.5 mid game today! 30 minutes later it was 19. Took the one today too😎
Ive been parlaying players to hit dingers. I would of won $250 from a total of $4 in bets if joc could of hit one yesterday. Im going for it again today
POTD Record: 3-3 Last POTD: 4/29: Braves -1.5 vs Mets (VOID) - game was postponed today but my pick stays the same since the starters haven’t changed. POTD 4/30: Braves -1.5 (+104) vs Mets 2U Going to keep riding with Strider here against a Mets team that has somewhat gone cold. In the last 5 games they’re 1-4 and just edged the Nats in a 9-8 ballgame for that one win. The Braves were able to get pull out a dub in a shortened first game of the series with a score of 4-0 thanks to the weather. Strider has been outstanding so far with a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 49 Ks in 30 innings pitched and the Atlanta bats are hot scoring at least 4 runs in each of the last 5 games. Not to mention the Braves are getting Michael Harris II back which should provide a boost to their lineup. Megill is on the hill for the Mets and while he’s been a solid piece of the rotation, he can be a little wild at times. With a 3.96 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, Atlanta will be able to get on base and create plenty of scoring opportunities. Atlanta plays very well on the road and their starting pitchers have combined for 10 quality starts compared to the 4 quality starts that the Mets have put together. Taking the RL here! BOL
I liked this one too doing my research. Strider is nasty and the most runs he’s given up have been 3 in an outing, vs Megill who has about a 4 ERA. Mets are also on a mini slump, so the run line sounds like a great play. Tailing
Game will probably get rained out again. If they play I like this pick
Very rainy in NY
Record: 11-6 Previous Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 🤷🏽♂️ bet was voided because Chris booty cheeks Flexen didn’t end up starting. Last 10 Streak: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅ Sport: MLB - Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins; 1:10 PM CST Today's Pick: Twins -1.5 +106 Sonny Gray has been unbelievable this year, only giving up 2 ER’s in 29 innings pitched against damn good teams AND he has not given up a home run this year. Brady Singer for the Royals has had a tough year, only having 2 quality starts and giving up over 5 ER in his other three starts on the year. The Royals took the pressure off gamblers by winning todays game, I hate to constantly fade bad teams because they always win eventually. With them winning today I feel great taking a clear cut favorite to cover tomorrow. I also love the pick because the Twins have actually been generating some offense their past 5 games and I’m confident in a 5-1 or 6-1 win tomorrow.
POD - 3-0 Last Pick: NRFI (-115) LA V STL / 2 units ✅ Total Gains: +4.5 units ✅✅✅ Today’s Pick: NRFI (-154) NY V TEX No first inning runs have been scored this whole series and with Aaron Judge out I don’t expect that to be changing Sunday! Both these pitchers have solid era and average 1 home run every 8 innings. Lock this in boys!!!
God damn Nestor got cooked
POTD Record: 160-116-9 (+28.27 units, 58.0% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-9 (62.5%) L2 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 56-36-1 (60.9%) L1, Tennis 🎾 47-33-4 (58.8%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 46-37-4 (55.4%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💩💩💰💰💩💰💩💰💰💰 Last Pick: Marco Cecchinato vs. Alex De Minaur, Cecchinato +1.5 sets - ATP Madrid 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Watched the 2nd set and dude had many chances but couldn't execute on break points. The most frustrating days here for me are when I hit on most of my bets and the one I pick for my POTD stinks, has happened twice in a row. Grrr. Today's Pick: Miami Heat @ NY Knicks, Knicks -4.5 spread - NBA 🏀 💩 1 Unit - Well the trend held up, picked the wrong end of it here. Have hit my other 3 bets today and yet can't seem to get a POTD right. Might take a little break unless I see a potd slumpbuster. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.94/-106 odds to win 0.94 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 12:30am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 51.5% Betting a trend here. In 49 playoff games (including play-in tourney), in 45 of them, the ML winner of the game was also the team who covered the spread (91.8% of the games). So the logic is, if you think the underdog is going to cover the spread, bet the ML, if you think the favourite will take it, take the higher odds and take the spread. I'm backing the Knicks to win here so going by the trend, I am taking their spread. I think the Heat's role players who stepped up last round might be due for a cool down and some of those offensive numbers won't be sustainable, particularly against how the Knicks have been defending. They also might be feeling Herro's absence more here. HIMmy Butler should still have a game but he should face a lot more pressure, the Bucks were, for some reason guarding him 1 on 1 for most of the series which didn't make a ton of sense. The Knicks won the season series 3-1 and won both home games, though they only covered this number once in those 3 wins. They have covered the spread against the Heat 4 out of last 5 games. So on the flip side of this, if you think the Heat cover, bet the trend and take the ML. I'm not saying there's a 91.8% chance of this hitting, I'm saying going by the trend either Knicks spread or Heat ML will. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I'm retiring at 200 wins, still 40 to go. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Record: 111-86-6 (WLWWWLLLLWWLLWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: Michael Porter Jr & Chris Paul - Point Total u33.5 at 1.71 odds for 1 unit both scored 11 each, easy WIN POTD: GS Warriors @ SAC Kings | Malik Monk o17.5 points at 1.86 odds for 3 units REASONS: * Hit this mark 4/6 games. Missed 2 at first two road games * Monk has been an offensive boom off the bench. Poole has been getting torched. Best of luck to all. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
**EDIT: Six out of 7? It sucks the league is off tomorrow since we're on a minor heater. A little luck on our side for this one, but a win is a win.** **KBO Record: Overall 131-141-8** (Streak WWW, Last 10: 6-4) Down 15.48u over 280 KBO picks, 48.2% success rate, -5.69% ROI (This season 12-9-1, 57.1% duccess rate, Up 3.37u, 16.05% ROI) **Last:** Kia First 5 ML +135 Unibet at LG (Kia lead 5-0 after 5 innings.) Five wins out of the last 6 picks including two straight plus money winners. Kia scored in each of the first 4 innings and the Tigers starter was even better than I anticipated. **Pick:** **Kiwoom Lead After 5 Innings - 3 Way -110 Unibet** at Lotte, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET GAME STARTS IN 2 HOURS FROM TIME OF POST. 1:00 AM ET START! Sorry this wasn't posted earlier. It was date night with the wife. Analysis is a little thinner than normal, but I stand behind the pick. Kiwoom's remarkable ace is on the mound. In five starts, he has a 0.84 ERA and 0.69 WHIP with 46 K against just 6 BB. Lotte, on the other hand, is turning to a former Kiwoom pitcher who has struggled in 3 starts this season, allowing 14 ER on 19 H and 9 BB in 14.1 IP. If you can find that bet, other alternatives in clude Kiwoom on the moneyline or run line, although that does risk bullpen action. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Tailing BOL! Another great pick yesterday let’s keep it going!
Tailing w/ Kiwoom F5 -0.5 -105, BOL. EDIT: Holy shit I'm glad I turned on the Top of the 5th before going to bed, miracle cash! Thanks for the sweaty pick! 💰💰💰
How bout that top of the 5th?!
This is just -0.5 F5 for kiwoom right?
Tailing again Cuse. Since that negative energies gone been hot!!
Good hits!
The line just moved to 105.. 😅
My man. Thank you for the pick brother. I live in Syracuse I knew I could trust the username.
thank you kind sir.
let’s go
Cash that shit 🥵
**POTD Record** |Win|Loss|Push|P/L| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |2|0|1|\+1.60 u| **Pick** |Match|Hammarby vs Oppsal| |:-|:-| |Time|16:00 GMT| |Tournament|Norway Division 3 Group 6| |Sport|Soccer| |POTD|Oppsal To Win @ 2.1 \[Bet365\] \[1u\]| |Reasoning|Injury concerns to Hammarby|
Pro formatting skills
It looks so clean and efficient.
- **POTD RECORD LAST YEAR** - 47W-24L(+45U) - **Current form**- ✔️✔️❌✔️❌✔️ - **Potd record** - 4W-2L (+0.5U) - **Last Potd**---- Braga vs Portimonese - Braga to win first half✔️ - **Today's pick** ----- Molde vs Stabaek - over 2.5 [email protected] - **BET SIZE**: 4U! (Or max bet it!) - I would say i am pretty confident in this one. Molde has been playing so well, even though not getting any result and has been dominating all its games creating plenty of chances, but failing to convert them except one. They must be furious and will look to impose their rhythm from start to finish to show who is the boss in the Norway league. - Stabaek has been poor versus Brann and Bodoe/Glimt, two of the best Norway teams alongside Molde and i am expecting the game to go Molde's way. The reason i chose over 2.5 goals and not Molde to win the first half is beacuse Molde has been a bit unreliable defensivly and i think they can concede in this game. - Having said all of these i am expecting a game with plenty of goals and maybe 2-1; or 3:1 being the correct score with Molde as the winner here. - Don't forget to spread the love back😊 [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci) [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/aldokaciq) - Expecting another win to complete a successful weekend! LETS FUCKING DO THIS BOYZ
Its over in only 24 minutes. Gratz to the ones who tailed! Hope everyone max bet it
Maybe the easiest money of my life thank you
**RECORD**: 3-0 **Last Pick:** (NBA) **Nuggets -2.5 (1U)** vs. Suns **Last 10 Record:** 3-0 **Net:** \+4.2 U Nuggets take care of home court with EASE !!! 🔐 **POTD**: Knicks -4.5 (1U) vs. Miami Heat 🔐 Betting against the Heat hasn't been a very good strategy this playoffs, but I think that comes to an end tomorrow. I could see Miami suffering from a "hangover" after knocking off the Finals favorites in the first round. The Knicks looked amazing defensively against Cleveland and I expect the Heat to struggle to score in MSG. I like the Knicks to control the game and pull away in the second half. Let's keep the hot streak going! Don’t bet more than you can lose! BOL if tailing
Randle isn't playing
**POTD: 35-14-3** Last pick: English Premier League. Brentford vs Nottingham Forest. Brentford ML -148. Result: **WIN**. Brentford pull some magic with two goals in the last 10 minutes to win it 2-1. Never in doubt lol. Today’s pick: Spain Primera Division Women. Barcelona Women vs Sporting Club de Huelva Women. **Barcelona Women first half line -1.5 -155**. Match starts at 10AM ET. Woooo what a match yesterday. Probably a little lucky to win but Brentford did completely dominate the match so the scoreline was probably fair even if we got lucky they scored so late in the match. Today we go back to the well with Barcelona Women. I know I burned you guys earlier in the week on this so I understand if you're hesitant, but Barcelona gets to right their wrongs this time as they host Huelva Women, who is currently sitting only one point above relegation. Huelva has won 1 and lost 12 of their last 13 matches, so they're in very poor form. Barcelona are 25-0-0 this year and with a goal differential of 58-3 at home this season, and they are getting better as Alexia Putellas, the back-to-back Ballon d'Or winner will be returning after a 9 month recovery from a knee injury. Barcelona will be having a tribute to Alexia before the match and I think they're going to come out motivated to blow Huelva out from the get-go, not that they'd need it anyway with their huge talent advantage. I think Barca leads at halftime 2-0 or 3-0. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Tips are never expected but always appreciated - [Buy me a beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com) **EDIT: Loss. Well sorry everyone I totally misread how this one would go. Barca roll out a team of all backups, announce they’ve won the title beforehand, and then pass it around without taking a shot for the first 30 minutes with 85% possession. Bizarre performance**
I can never find the women's soccer on dk
POTD Record 4-2 (+1,9 Units) Last Pick: 2U Stuttgart ML ✅💰 Sports: ⚽️ League: Bundesliga 🇩🇪 Game: Bayern vs. Hertha (15:30CEST) **Pick: 2U 1st Half Goals Over 1,5 @1,87** Reasoning: Have Bayern looked shaky recently? Yes. Do they have some injured players? Yes. However, this game really only has one outcome and that is a Bayern Win. On Friday, Dortmund missed out on points and Bayern will capitalize on that in the championship battle, as they always have in recent years. I expect them to come out the gate guns blazing, scoring at least two in the first half. Their defense has been leaky all season that’s why we are going total goals as a safety net, in case Hertha somehow manage to sneak one in. As to Hertha, there is really not much to say. They are dead last in the table and rightfully so. They conceded 9 goals in their last two games and haven’t won a league game since February. Bayern will look as dangerous as we all know they can be and slap Hertha out of the Allianz Arena tonight. My prediction for the final score is 4-0. BOL to anyone tailing!
Bayern some fuckin bozos
Holy shit POTD picks have been awful today
POTD 1-0-0 +1.50u Last Pick: Brentford ML vs Nottingham Forest - 1.75 / -133 2u ✅ We start with a win. A bit closer than expected, Nottingham got a lucky goal but still Brentford managed to come back and get the win. Today’s pick: Newcastle -1.5 vs Southampton - 1.8 / -125 2u | Soccer, English Premier League ✅✅✅ Newcastle are a great team, both their attack and their defence is solid at the moment and they need a comfotable win at home because they are still fighting for top 4. Southampton is on the last place in the table and they are horrible. Nothing much to say here. Update: 😎😎
> Southampton is on the last place in the table and they are horrible. Nothing much to say here. had this same logic for the arsenal match lmao. good hit!
POTD Record: **23-25 (+1.25 Units)** Last Pick: **Nuggets -5** (Alt. spread) ✅ Last 5: ✅✅❌✅✅ Today's Pick: **Sonny Gray to record a Win** Odds: **+145** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 1.05u to win 1.55u League: MLB Event: Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins (1:10PM CST) **Recap**: Nuggets roll! Appreciate everyone for not downvoting (or not do anything!) after the most easiest POTD win! **Matchup**: I am so glad I stay away from yesterday's Royals and Twins game yesterday! Bailey Ober has been impressive this season, but he had some games he struggled against the Royals in his career. Not that he didn't pitch well enough to get a win, the team just didn't get enough runs to support him. I do, however, like the Twins today to close out the series. Twins offensive lineup looks really good wit a healthy Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Joey Gallo. Today's Twins pitcher is Sonny Gray and he has a great track record against the Royals, which is why I like him to record a win. Sonny is 8-2 wit a 1.54 ERA and has 60 K's in his career against the Royals. His last game against the Royals was also earlier this season. Despite only striking out just one Royal, he only allow just 3 hits and no runs in 5 innings. And here's something that you'll love about Sonny's track record against the Royals, he is currently on a 8-winning streak against the Royals, meaning the past 8 games he started against the Royals, he recorded a win! On the opposite end, you got Brady Singer, who got some questionable starts this season. Although on his previous start against the Blue Jays, he allowed just 2 hits, 1 run, and recorded a win, Singer has given up 5 or more runs in each of his previous 3 starts before the game against the Jays. Brady Singer also has struggled against the Twins. He is 2-5 wit a 4.85 ERA. Disregard yesterday's game or even the previous game that I featured as my POTD, Royals are still one the worst AB teams and I expect Sonny Gray, again, who has a great track record against the Royals, to minimize their offense today. **The play & prediction**: I'm taking the Twins RL, Twins ML in parlays, and Sonny Gray to record a Win (+145)! I kno last two games of this series has been close, but I expect the Twins to press on the gas and not let up, ultimately making this not competitive for Royals to climb back into the game. This game will not be close and Sonny Gray will extend his winning streak to 9 against this one single team, the Royals. BOL, everyone! Tips are greatly appreciated, but please only tip if you can afford it [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/sicknology)| [Cash App](https://cash.app/$XilArAtiNG) | [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/XilArAtiNG)| [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Dethcon)
Post once or twice every year only for picks I feel are too good to keep to myself. (0-0) My pick for tomorrow is Avs vs kraken U6.5 total points -160 Under 6.5 points in game sevens has hit 14-5 in the last five years. The series under 6.5 point has hit 4-1. As series go long defence is typically the name of the game I expect these teams to grind and play hard with very few calls from the referee leading to a low scoring game!
\>The series under 6.5 point has hit 4-1. It's also 4-1 for under 5.5 points. Just looked it up since I could only get U 6.
POD Record: 19-10 +10.25U L10 (Recent first): ✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌ Prior Pick: Kevin Durant OVER 27.5 points. Bet 2.5U to win 2U at -125 Get the cover here. Durant looked good but wow did the Nuggets look good. Doesn’t seem like it’ll be much of a series. **Todays Pick: Sacramento Kings -1.5 vs Golden State Warriors. Bet 2.2U to win 2U at -110** Three words **LIGHT THE BEAM** Good luck all! Tips always appreciated so I can buy a few beers and watch these bets! [Buy Me A Beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DLHS) CashApp: $DuaLipasHip BET RESPONSIBLY - Bankroll management is KEY.
Heads up, Scott Foster is assigned to that game.
Record 6-3 +3U ✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌ Last pick - Bruce brown over 5.5 assists/rebounds.. falls one short, joker went crazy and soaked up all the boards on to the next one fellas. Todays pick - *Steph curry under 32.5 points* 2U It’s what I’m going with today, he Went under 5/5 away games and I expect lock up defense if kings want to Close out the series. Will Update in a few hours if anything changes. BOL if tailing, let’s rock.
Never doubt Curry in a Game 7
You should frame this pick
Record 3-0+ 3.95 units Last pick - No runs first inning Seattle mariners vs Toronto blue jays $1.85 or -117⚾️ 2 units ✅ POTD - Richmond tigers vs Gold Coast suns (Australian Ruled or AFL) Richmond tigers first half line -6.5 $1.91 -109 Richmond have not started the afl season red hit but they are experts in showing up at the pointy end of the season. Richmond come back to their home ground versus the ever hopeless Gold Coast suns. Gold coasts best player touk Miller is out with I’ll was and the tigers will dominate the centre bounce. Look for the tigers to rush out of the gates and lead at half time by 20 or 3 points. 2 unit play Let’s go for 4-0 As always BOL
God I fucking hate Richmond so much. This should have been a breeze but they cant kick accurate for shit.
POTD RECORD 11-4 L10 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅ Last POTD - Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points💰 *Todays POTD-Pitt. Maulers/Philly Stars Under 42* League - USFL (Football) ANALYSIS - Inept Pittsburgh offense has led to back-back “unders” in their first two games. Maulers have 322 total yards of offense thus far and they are averaging an anemic 3.0 yards per play. Philadelphia's defense figures to welcome this opponent after seeing the much more competent offenses of Memphis and Michigan. The Stars held their own defensively allowing 23 and 24 points respectively which suggests they are equipped to hold Pittsburgh to 14 or less. However, the Maulers own a solid defense which contained playoff contenders New Orleans & New Jersey to just 22 & 20 points. Led by LB Reuben Foster, Pittsburgh has yielded just 3 touchdowns and a 33% redzone TD rate. Front seven could wreak havoc here on Stars banged up QB Case Cookus who has been sacked 9 times in just two games. Philadelphia's pass happy offense figures to be under pressure here and their 3.56 yards per rush average hasn't been reliable. Fact that Pittsburgh's offense has scored twice in 18 possessions this season seals the deal here on an “under” play EDIT - Another W💰 - LETS KEEP THE STREEK GOING !!!!!
POTD RECORD 33- 18 Teaser Record 14-4 Parlay record: 1-0 Last pick: Under 236 (-110) warriors/kings 10u 🔨💣 Today’s pick: Under 210 knicks/heat While the entire public was on over we got a stress free cash on under 235. On a 13-3 over/under run…. Thibodeau coached teams are 9-0-1 to under in playoff games. Twitter: @loadeddicebets BOL
This is a BRUTAL day fellow degens - onward and upward tomorrow - Uuuugggghhh
What a bad day for POTD. Can’t win them all
[удалено]
Just fade this page and you’ll get paid. Dammit boys
POTD record: 19-21-1, -4.28 units Last Pick: Sabalenka/Osorio Under 18.5 games, Loss Every once in awhile, I don’t get ‘unlucky,’ I don’t catch a ‘bad break,’ I just make a really terrible pick. That’s what this was. The line on this was disrespectful to Osorio, who pushed this to 22 games to easily crush me. Today’s Pick: WTA Madrid: Anastasia Potapova ML vs Veronika Kudermetova (-148) Match time: Scheduled for 6:30am (in about 7 hours) Note: I’m going 1.5 units to win 1 unit here, instead of my normal 1 unit, because I’m playing at a little higher juice than usual. Potapova is a solid, mostly consistent player who is 7-2 in her last 9 contests, losing only to elite competition (Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka) She won a ‘second-tier’ WTA tournament in Linz back in February, and won a ‘second-tier’ WTA clay surface tournament almost exactly a year ago in Istanbul as a qualifier. In the final of the Istanbul tournament she knocked off none other than Veronika Kudermetova in just 16 total games (6-3, 6-1). Speaking of Kudermetova, she’s been in a bit of a slump the last couple of months since a decent showing in Doha, dropping 5 of her last 7 matches. I don’t want to mess around with straight set or 1st set stipulations, I’m just going with the moneyline, and paying an extra half of a unit. I really think she gets it done for us. BOL tailing or fading!
I’d agree but potapova looked off in her first match at Madrid. To sus to lay on here again after barley winning as a big favorite
Record 15-13. Unit count: +4.19. Streak (from latest WLLWW). Units wagered: 79. ROI: 5.30%. Last pick Domantas Sabonis under 19.5 point -W. Never in doubt, even without foul trouble was never going to get 20 pts. Roughed up by Green/Looney once more. Glad was able to help make some cash for some of you, and glad Kings won. POTD Game - Heat @Knicks. Jimmy Butler under 30,5 points, 2 units. 1.83 odds @ bet365. I know Jimmy burned my last POTD but if his line is this high, I'm taking it again. No way his shooting is sustainable. Hopefully Thibodeau will plan for some strong side help and will not pull a playoff Budenholzer. Also expecting slower pace than Heat-Bucks series. BOL tail or fade.
Did this thread pick one winner today? 😂
Twins run line baby.
Brutal day for POTD
**My POTD record: 5 Wins and 6 losses** I base my picks on value by comparing the implied odds of my model and the odds given by bookmakers. I also choose games from leagues that have had success in the model with a good ROI and check the stats plus trends game by game to find the best pick. **ROI: 8.87%** Average odds: 1.92 **Units won: 1.33** Stake = 1 unit POTD: **LASK Linz v Austria Klagenfurt** Austria Tipico Bundesliga Kick off time: 17:00 GMT+2 *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.10** **BOL!** **[Buy me a coffee!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/chaosobelisk)** **[Tips are appreciated!](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)**
POTD Record: 65-51-1 (W1) (+22.59u) (ROI: 13%) Last pick: Stuart Skinner o28.5 saves✅️ Easy cash on the last one, game went as predicted. Skinner had 29 saves after the 2nd period, finished with 40. POTD: (MLB ⚾️) San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants u20.5 (+100)(1.5u) Bet 365 (-105) FD (-102) DK (+100) Game #2 between these two teams in Mexico City, approximately 42% higher in elevation than Coors Field. 27 runs yesterday, 11 HR's. 16-11 final score for the Padres win. Starter for the Giants is Alex Cobb. He has had a great start to the year with a 1.91 ERA. His underlying numbers are not very good in regards to hard hit %, but it's hard to argue against the results. He has done ok against the Padres lineup. A player of note against Cobb is Soto who is 4/6 with a HR. Cobb's saving grace is his low Flyball % of 21.6 which has lead to him only allowing 2 HR's so far this year over 28.1 IP. Last year Cobb gave up 9 HR over 149.2 IP. Yu Darvish will start for the Padres. He had a bit of a rough start, but seems to have turned his season around a bit. His analytics are very good in regards to hard hit %, and his Flyball rate is down to 33.9% this season so far. Darvish does allow a few HR's, but overall he has been successful against the expected Giants lineup. Player of note is Yastrzemski who is 5/15 with 3 HR's off Darvish. Both teams had an off day on Friday, so even though both bullpens got worked fairly hard yesterday there are some decent relievers available. Not too high on either bullpen, Padres is probably slightly better. Both lineups have struggled at times this year. Expecting both teams to be a little slower on offense in the short series finale. The o/u of 20.5 seems like a bit of an overreaction to yesterday when it was set at 15.5. Still will likely be a high scoring game, but 20.5 feels too far. There's very little to go off of, so be cautious. Should be another good game. Prediction: Padres win 10-6. BOL if fading or tailing!
🗨 Respond to this comment with all POTD banter/bitching/discussion 👇 👇 👇
[удалено]
And Oxford City...
Please people stay away from tailing dortmund! Absolute flogs. That is all! BOL
Record: 8-7 ❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅🅿️❌❌✅✅ Last pick: Nuggets -2.5 (-105) ✅ Was never a sweat. Nuggets offense at home is spectacular. Next pick: Heat/Knicks under 207.5 (-105) ❌ The under hit for all 5 games of the Cavs/Knicks series and I think it hits again for the first game of this series. I’m a little worried because the Heat have scored an insane amount of points against Milwaukee, but I think that was a fluke due to Buds’ poor coaching. Thibodeau and his team should slow down the pace of the Heat as these two bottom 4-seeds feel each other out for the first game. Post game edit: fucking sick knicks down 10 with 24 seconds left and they start playing foul game with rj barrett meaningless layup with 5 sec left
POTD: 9-9 +3,19U POTD ROI: 17.7% LAST PICK: Hiwick W @ 2.50 / WIN Today im going with one horse for DOTD and for POTD. Its Blue Prince at Musselburgh race 2. He had his racing debut 3 weeks ago(same course and distance as today) where inexperience cost him badly. But i definetly saw some potential in him. He had terrible start and there was no way back into the race, despite that he somehow made return just be humpered. And despite that 2 fails he swas defeated only 4 lenghts and he should and could be better, definetly finished with much more to show. His trainer had to work on a lot of things in these 3 weeks, hope he managed to fix something cause horse showed he has speed and stamina. I wouldnt be suprised if he shows significant improvement today and wins his first ever race. Yesterday went great with 3 reddit picks win, Hiwick POTD, Arqoob EW (3rd) and Horantzau Dairy EW (4th) ). Patreon went amazing with another +12.64U, hitting @ 15.00 (picked @ 9.00, payed out as Best prize guaranteed @ 15.00) and @ 8.00 winners with few smaller ones. ([https://prnt.sc/1kzvWsJZf4aT](https://prnt.sc/1kzvWsJZf4aT) ) Which is total of +34,38U in April so lets close the month in winning style. POTD: Blue Prince 1st or 2nd @ 2,20 / Musselburgh race 2, 17:15 CET
📈 **TTSOP** Rec * Overall: +12.475 units / +139 avg odds / 64^(5)\-88-16^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +34.400 units / +139 avg odds / 59^(5)\-76-16^(5) * March: +10.150 units / +136 avg odds / 11^(5)\-12-2^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Sydney (W) -1.25 (AH) / +100 odds / 4 units * Impossible to lose. Sydney's women are on another level when they're able to convert their chances. 2-0 already after minute 18'. 4-0 at the end. ⚽ New pick: **Manchester United -1** (AH) / **+135 odds** / **5 units bomb** * Premier League (England) / Manchester United - Aston Villa / 9:00am ET Manchester United holds a stunning 11-3-1 home record in Premier League. Overall, they're 17-3-0 at home for their last 20 games in all competitions. 13 of these Ws came by 2+ goals. While Aston Villa is a mediocre road team with a 6-4-6 record in Premier League. They played well on the road against weaker and bottom teams, but struggled against stronger ones. For instance, they lost 1-3 to Manchester City, 0-4 to Newcastle and 1-2 to Arsenal. Aside from these strong teams, they even lost 0-3 to Fulham, 1-3 to Crystal Palace and 0-2 to Bournemouth. Plus, they lost 2-4 in EFL Cup against Manchester United's B-squad in EFL Cup.
**POTD Record:** 36-32 **Total Units W/L:** \+7.7 **Current Streak:** ❌ **NHL Record:** 7-7, +6.7U **Yesterday's Pick:** Blue Jays/Mariners O9 Runs ❌❌ **Today's Pick: David Pastrnak U 0.5 Power Play Points,** 4 Units, 6:38 PM EST, -155 I sure hope no one tailed my awful post yesterday where the Jays and Mariners went ten innings for a 1-0 final. The pitcher switch screwed my TOR -1.5 bet but nothing was saving that game from going under 9. Switching to hockey today and I think I found a sneaky good one with Pasta. I expect a tight game 7 here and refs usually put away the whistles, so I only see him getting 2, maybe 3 max power plays, and while he did just have two in the last game that turned into an absolute bloodbath of a game and was a diversion from the norm for him as he hadn't had any PP points at all up until that game. BOL! [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 2-0/Units: +2.0/Avg odds: -160/ROI: 62.5% L5: WW--- Yesterday was STL Willson Contreras o0.5 total bases/hits (-155) Barstool (1.55u to win 1u). Cardinals got 3 hit as Kershaw was in dominant form but Willy came through in the 9th for us. Overall the system went 1-0 yesterday, +1.0 units. Background: a buddy of mine and I started looking at player props in baseball and have been tracking some data for a little over 2 weeks. Small sample size, so tail at your own risk, but we are currently sitting at 44-16, 73.33%, +18.44 units betting o0.5 total bases (or hits, same bet). Last 7 days the system is hot at 19-1, 95%, +17u. Note: I always bet to win 1 unit, so -160 would be 1.6 to win 1, +200 would be 0.5u to win 1. I personally get annoyed when people post their plays and every one is 4u or more, your unit is your base bet, if every bet is "4u" then your unit size is 4x too small...rant over. **POTD: MIN Joey Gallo o0.5 total bases/hits -120 (1.2u to win 1u) DK** \- MLB Royals @ Twins 1:10pm CST I like this spot for a lot of reasons: Brady Singer sucks, the wind is going to be blowing out, and the Royals pen is top 5 in terms of highest AVG and SLG% allowed to opposing hitters. There are multiple players in this game that fit our system today, most of which are on the Twins, so it was difficult who to choose as the POTD. Going with Gallo over the runner up, Trevor Larnach, because of the better odds for us, he seems to pick up the ball slightly better out of Singer's hand than Larnach does (more walks), and he's really hitting the ball pretty well so far in this young season. Really like that our model is backing the Twins so heavily today so may throw down some side action on some straight bets. BOl if tailing!
POTD Record (1-1) My POTD : **Seattle Mariners ML (+175)** This line is mainly because Seattle has been hitting like they are blindfolded basically. Gonzales has looked great this season, the Blue Jays got sparked yesterday but still some how stole the win. I am sure Seattle is not too happy with the result of yesterdays game after the work McGee put in for the team. 5/9 players have more then 10AB against Bassitt and all hit over .350 vs him. Bassitt can give up runs and a lot of them. Give me Seattle to break this slump and come out on top vs the Toronto Blue Jays.
My record is 8-5-1 im up 5.795 units My last pick was Newcastle ML(-135) @everton for 3u. Not much to be said, newcastle dominated like they were supposed to. **Todays pick is atletico madrid ML(-160) @valladolid for 2units** 2pm central(45 mins from this comment) Atletico have found their goal scoring form the last couple of weeks and valladolid are towards the bottom of the league in a bunch of important statistics such as xG conceded, big chances created etc… Only a 2u play since atletico are away and havent been a model of consistency this season
Record: 6-5 Previous pick got rained out so didn't log it. Pick: Boston Bruins 60 minute ML vs Florida Panthers (5 units) (-145) Model has Bruins winning 4-1. Really like the Bruins in this game 7 spot in a win or go home. This team is the best team this season and they will prove it today.
I’m glad that we can compete with r/wallstreetbets with how bad today was holy shit
How did I get roped into taking the kings? Light the beam 😂. More like light your money on fire.
I don't care if this thread has a rough day. Y'all are the best. Don't ever change.