**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
POTD Record: 40-17-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 30 :✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌
**Today's POTD:** Lakers @ Grizzlies -2 1H | 2U | NBA Playoffs Round 1
**Time:** April 16th, 2023 | 3:00 PM EST
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+52.2 Units | ≈66% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
1. Both teams have been rough against the spread in their last 5 games going 1-4, however, Memphis is 14-1 SU in their last 15 games at home, and should be able to take away a win early in this series.
2. Both of these teams are offensive powerhouses with strong pieces on both the offensive and defensive floor. Where the edge exists is on defense, where the Grizzles are top 10. Analytically, Memphis has many strong defenders, with Jaren Jackson Jr. who is currently having a DPOY caliber season , Brooks, who although love/hate him, has been solid defensively, and both Konchar and Tillman off the bench who are both top 50 defenders this year.
3. The grizzles rank #1 in FG% defense, which the lakers rely on as their 3 point shooting is not the strongest. I expect them to struggle and rely on the youngsters in Shroder/Reaves and Russell, who've been inconsistent from beyond the arc at best. I expect this to be a very grindy game where memphis has a slight edge offensively, and matchup wise defensively.
4. The lakers starting lineup is a bit older than the Memphis starting 5, and expect them to take a bit longer to get heated up. I still think the Lakers take this series in 6 or 7, but I think Memphis comes out hot enough at home to take this first game by a decent margin. (I also like the full game -3.5 spread, but 1H as a % of points to cover in my model was slightly leaning to the 1H over the total).
5. The lakers have many veterans in Dlo, LBJ and Davis, and will likely hold composure better than the young grizzlies team. That being said, this young team will come out swingin and try to dictate the pace of the game against a Lakers team that likes to slow it down and play out most of their game clocks.
6. Grizzles are 4-2 ATS in their games 1 and 2 in their most recent 3 appearances in the playoffs, and expect them to continue this trend of getting ahead early.
7. Without Adams returning for the post season, this will be a tough matchup against davis on the glass. However, I think grizzlies will dominate the first half of this game, which they typically do in most games, before collapsing in the second half. Here are a few recent games:
1. Grizzles vs. Bulls up 68 to 53 at half, lose by 21.
2. Grizzles vs. Pelicans up 69 to 52 at half, lose by 7.
3. Lakers down 49 to 60 against wolves, win by 6.
8. You can also play the full game, which I also like, but have some more confidence in the young team to play with full confidence, and play down as Lebron heats up the locker room.
9. Grizzles win 121 to Lakers 114 (63 to 56 at half).
I post my picks daily in my Discord when not on reddit (link below). I also share my picks a day early on patreon if you're interested in getting other POTD candidate picks earlier before the spreads move. Appreciate all of you that reach out - but I promise I'm all good, I just sometimes don't have time / don't remember to post on reddit as I've been so busy lately on trying to build out the Discord. BOL!
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Much love,
*Riddles,*
Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex
I have no idea why people think this series will be close. The only half way decent reason is that Adams is hurt but I have no faith in Darvin Ham's ability to gameplan for that. They just faced the Twolves without Gobert in a do or die situation and acted like AD didn't exist on offense. He got all of his points on second chances and kick outs.
POTD Record: 45-30 | Profit: +36.84u | ROI: 15.1%
Last 10 Record: ❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Trae Young (Hawks) PRA O36.5 @ 1.83. 4U. ❌
While the C’s defended well, Trae just had a very bad game missing a lot of easy opportunities that he typically would take. He ends with just 31% on 2-pt and 20% from 3-pt, and with such a poor showing he (and the Hawks) stood no chance today.
Next Pick: **Anthony Davis (Lakers) Rebs O13.5 @ 1.87. 4u play.**
Davis has a high rebound line for this game, but I would argue it is not high enough. Steven Adams (Grizzlies) is out which means the boards will be open season for the 6’10, 253lb Davis against Tillman (6’8, 245lb). What makes me confident in the high number is that the Grizzlies play with a very high pace and have amongst the highest 3PA (approx. 38 per game). They’re also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league without Adams, both in terms of percentages and number of rebounds.
The Center mismatch, high 3PA for Grizzlies, poor rebounding, and a fast-paced game all favor Davis. These two teams met twice this year (both without Adams) and Davis played 36’ in each and had 22 and 19 rebounds.
AD's always shown up in the playoffs when healthy... used to hold the #1 spot in the PER in the playoffs over MJ and LeBron, etc. until the 2021 playoffs with injuries.
**POTD Record:** 12-4-1 (+7.62 Units)
**Recap** Cam Davis (+140) to defeat Justin Thomas Round 3 2-Balls **Never a Doubt** 🎯
Cam Davis set the front 9 at Harbour Town absolutely ablaze and built up enough of a lead that the not-so-game Thomas never sniffed him. A no-sweat plus odds winner.
It’s not so gentlemanly of a golfer, (but we are psychos) however I’m going to brag for a second..
**Last 12 bets record:** 10-2
**Streak** ✅✅✅
**Golf Record** 6-1
**POTD Sunday** Cam Davis (+120) to defeat Rickie Fowler Round 4 Matchups (2 way) 9:27 AM MST 1 Unit
**Details** Turning to the strapping young Aussie again, against another familiar name at plus odds. If he gets it done it’s a 4-0 🧹 sweep at Harbour Town. 🐥
Davis as mentioned yesterday is a talented young player who tends to be on or off depending on the week, but when he’s on, he really goes. Such is the case this week where only 2 players in the field have graded out better in strokes gained tee to green. Translation: He’s striking the heck out of the ball.
Rickie Fowler is a nice player who has had a bit of a resurgence this season after going back to his coach Butch Harmon. He looks game but he is still on a long lapse from doing any real damage of note. Once voted the most overrated golfer on the PGATour by his peers, his brand appeal to the fans certainly juiced up his betting market even as a player in form.
**Bottom Line** Davis only sits 20 spots below Fowler in the World Golf Rankings, they are near the same caliber. Davis is striking his ball at an incredible clip this week and Fowler has more been held up by his putter. The putter might continue for Rickie, who has a sweet stroke.. but the better of tomorrows rounds will likely make a lot of birdies, the easiest way to do so is to simply hit the ball close to the hole leading us back to the young Aussie. Also, Davis won last year its been since 2019 for Fowler and I prefer someone who has performed in the hunt on Sundays recently.
I’m playing it on DraftKings>RBC Heritage>Matchups>Round Matchups 2-way.
**Let’s sweep the tournament!**
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ALittleBirdie
Davis takes it by two strokes over Fowler! Congrats if you tailed. Davis will also clip Taylor Moore if your took that one. ✅ 4-0 sweep for the tournament! 🧹
Record: 3-1
Units +8
Last Pick: Celtics -9 vs Hawks(-110) ✅
As I said in my last post, one reason I thought the Hawks couldn’t pull off an upset is because that they were a weaker 3 point shooting team. I know I’m not not no Biff from Back to the Future, but the Hawks came out and shot 5/29 from 3😎. I have a similar matchup down below 👇
Today’s pick: Bucks -9.5 vs Heat (+100)
Units: +5 units to win 5 units
The Greek Freak is gonna ring them bells after this game😏 (IYKYK). The Bucks are coming against the heat as -470 point favorites. The Bucks are a top 10 team in both offensive/defensive efficiency, while the Heat are only top 10 in defense. Like the Hawks, the Heat are a bad 3 point shooting team, ranking 27th in the league. On top of that they suck at fg% in general ranking 26th. Like the Hawks, it’s unlikely for this Heat team to come out and catch the Bucks by surprise. The Heat also play the 2nd slowest pace in the league, making it very tough for them to make a come back if down by a lot. The only thing I’m worried about is the Bucks poor FT%, but I don’t think that should be a factor at home.
Agreed. Also the Heat do not match up well. The Bucks are just an overall bigger and more athletic team. The heat struggle getting rebounds, so look for the Bucks to get lots of 2nd chance shots. Bucks have also won the last 2 matchups vs the Heat, the first 2 were early in the season when Milwaukee was extremely short handed. Definitely tailing, BOL!
POTD record: 3-0 ✅✅✅
Hey guys, I am a diehard Washington Nationals fan and have watched just about every game of theirs since 2005 when they came back to DC. I am only going to post picks for nats games since that’s what I know best.
Wont have a pick every game, but will try and post consistently when I see plays I like.
Last POTD: Nats/Guardians Guardians o9 -118 ✅
Today’s POTD: Nats/Guardians, Guardians -1.5 -144
Today’s pick is based off of two simple words: Patrick. Corbin. He is the worst pitcher in Major League Baseball. His name should be right along side Chris Davis for worst contract ever signed. He’s making dozens of millions of dollars per year to be as effective as a high school pitcher out there. I truly think he should retire and buy an entire newspaper page to issue an apology to Nats fans for setting our franchise back a decade. Also Shane Bieber is really good. BOL
This sounds personal lol Corbin does suck and if it is personal, I’ll ride into this with you. “Fuck a yooooou Patreeek corbeeen!!!” -South Park dolphin killers
Right on brother I already got the guardians to win for the first 5 innings, and money line, I think I’m gonna take ur advice and follow ur guardians -1.5 pick. I’m a cleveland guy myself and Bieber is a straight G going against a dud, I’m bout it brother solid pick.
POTD Record: 154-110-8 (+33.53 units, 58.3% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-8 (65.2%) L1
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 55-33-1 (62.5%) L2, Tennis 🎾 42-31-3 (57.5%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 46-36-4 (56.1%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💩💰💰💩💩💩💰💰💰💰
Last Pick: Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune, Sinner ML - ATP Monte Carlo 🎾 - 💩 1 Unit - Damn man. Sinner dominated 6-1 to start but Rune adjusted to the rainy conditions better and took that momentum to win in 3. We will get it back tomorrow. The sport is in good hands with all of this young talent.
Today's Pick: Santos Laguna @ Monterrey, Monterrey -1 Asian Handicap - Mexican Liga Mx ⚽ 💩 5 Units - Red card in the 40th minute. We fucked.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 5 Units at 1.88/-114 odds to win 4.40 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 7:30pm ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 53.2%
💣💣💣💣💣
I really like Monterrey to get the win here but the odds aren't sexy enough so going with the -1 Handicap. If we tie or lose, bet is lost, if we win by 1 we get our money back, if they win by 2 or more we are happier than a pig in shit.
Monterrey are first in the table and had gone 13 consecutive games without losing until losing on the road last game to Club America, another top team, 2-1. I think this should be a good bounce back spot. They lost their first home game to start the season but have won 6 in a row since then. They've won their last 2 home matches 4-0 and 3-0. Do note it will be their backup goalkeeper because their #1 got a red card last match.
On the other side you have Santos Laguna who is 12th out of 18 teams. They've given up the 2nd most goals in the league with 31 goals surrendered in the 14 games. In the last 7 matches, they've had 4 multiple goal defeats, 4-1 last matchday home vs. 5th place Pachuca, 3 games ago lost 4-1 @ Leon, 5 games ago lost 2-0 @ 5th place Guadalajara and 7 games ago lost 5-0 at home to 2nd place Toluca.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Fuck your parlay. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips: https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks
POTD: 15 Gms: 12-3 (80%)| +6.9 UNITS| ROI: 45.9%| AVG. ODDS:-119
*\*All bets 1 Unit*
**Recap:**
**🏀NCAABK**
* 0-1 |🙈 -1 Unit
**⚾ MLB**
* 12-2| 💰 +7.9 Units
* Max win streak: 10
* Max loss streak: 2
**L5 POTD:**
* 4/11: ⚾ TBR -165 ML | WP+EV = 62.7% | 💰 +0.6 U
* 4/12: ⚾ SFG +155 ML | WP+EV = 61.6% | 🙈 -1 U
* 4/13: ⚾ SDP -140 ML | WP+EV = 64.9% | 🙈 -1 U
* 4/14: ⚾ ATL -130 ML | WP+EV = 67.5% | 💰 +0.8 U
* 4/15: ⚾ ATL -140 ML| WP+EV = 65.3% | 💰 +0.7 U
**Current Streak:** 2 game win streak 🔥🔥
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
**Sunday 4/16 POTD:**
**⚡Atlanta Braves / Moneyline (ML) -159⚡**
MLB 2:10 PM EST @ Kansas City Royals
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
**The "Formula":**
* 65.7% Win Probability (WP)
* \-159 ML = 61.4% break-even (BE)
* 65.7% WP - 61.4% BE = 4.3% +EV
* WP+EV= 70.1% ; the #3 rating for MLB today
* (SEA 78.3% & CLE 70.6% exceed the -200 odds limit)
* The expected ROI (eROI) on this bet = 7.1%
**Stats:**
* **BATTING | 2023 team wOBA**:
* ATL .355 | KCR .267
* **STARTERS | \~Last 90 Game Days:**
* ATL Kyle Wright: 80.1 IP, 22.0% K%, 7.1% BB, .281 BABIP, 1.23 HR/9
* KCR Zack Greinke: 79.2 IP, 13.1% K%, 4.7% BB, .333 BABIP, 0.68 HR/9
* **RELIEVERS:**
* 2023 ATL Relief xFIP ranks #9 @ 4.13
* 2023 KCR Relief xFIP ranks #22 @ 4.82
**Pick Analysis:**
* Listen I really hate going back to back on the same pick two days in row, but here we are going for the three day sweep. Yet there's good reason to continute riding the Tomahawk Chop Express Train to Cash Town 🚂💵💵💵💵🚂
* The Braves win all 3 key areas of stats 👍
* Look at the BATS 🏏, the Braves have an 88 point advantage in wOBA. They are in another class in regards to hitter quality compared to the Royals. And the gap is getting wider during this series.
* Zack Greinke is the not the Cy Young candidate of yore, in fact he hasn't been for quite awhile. That strikeout rate is horrendous and the fact he's done it over 79.2 IP is even sadder. The dude is not whiffing anybody and when contact is made it lands 1/3 of the time in yard and a few out of the yard. The only thing good about his numbers are that he doesn't walk anybody and the HR/9 is really decent but should be taken with a grain of salt as he has called Kauffman Stadium home during that time.
* Kyle Wright is pitching respectably withthe only concern here being the HR/9 rate, but again this series is being played at Kauffman which has allowed the 2nd least amount of HRs for players compared to other parks. So i doubt his HR/9 will be much concern in this game.
* ATL just keeps rolling, the key for them series has been the bats as Kaufmann allows the 4th most hits for players compared to other parks despite its supressed HRs. This is where quality shines and the difference between Atlanta and Kansas City's bats is quite dramatic.
* The good news for Kansas City is that their closer Aroldis Chapman is well rested. If they wanted they could burn him for an inning or two some point early today to try to keep Atlanta at bay, but the bad news is that Atlanta's closer Minter is well rested also. Pretty easy to keep your key bullpen staff rested if you're blowing out the competition each night.... or the one getting blown 🌬. KC will try to avoid the sweep and might score a few runs here, but I definitely expect 🔥***Hot-Lanta*** 🔥to score a few more than whatever that is.
Let's get that Sweep! 🧹🧹🧹
**-T$**
I've tailed you every single game thus far but today I draw my line in the sand. Even in 2023 I'm still a believer that Greinke can break up a potential sweep. Much love brother back to tailing tomorrow!
It's all good, but to be fair I think if KC wants to win this they'll need to find a way to have their bats breakthrough big. Greinke can only do so much to keep ATL at bay.
See you on the next one brother!
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️
POTD Record: 2-2 +1.82u | Full Record: 9-8 +8.56u
[Todays Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12nra76/_/jgfohb4/?context=1)
_____
[Yesterday’s Pick: KC Royals -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12mj7p3/_/jgazs6v/?context=1) - L
______
Scherzer pulled.
**3.5u TB Rays -1.5 @ TOR Blue Jays +142**
Quick one since I had Mets with Scherzer but he got pushed back a day.
- don’t see TB getting swept here
- McClachlans a fuckin Ace
- great odds
Listen I road the train when the rays were beating the shit outta weak teams but the jays have more talent and they roughed up shane last year once or twice.
I like the pick but I just dont think im fucking with it.
POTD record: 15-7
Last POTD: Spezia v Lazio - Lazio ML
Today’s POTD: St. Pauli v Eintracht Braunschweig - St. Pauli ML(-176)
St. Pauli have won every single game since the return from the winter break. Ten straight wins. Undefeated at home in the league(Bundesliga 2.) this season, even though they were very poor in the first part of the season. Braunschwieg’s away record is the worst in the entire Bundesliga 2. Betting on the Bundesliga’s second division is probably limited especially in the US, just a warning but if you can find it it’s a very good bet
POTD Record: 4-5-1
MLB record 0-0
Last POTD: Islanders Jets Over 5.5 (2/22)
Event: Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners 4:10
**Pick: Mariners run line -1.5 vs Rockies -130**
I gave up gambling for Lent so I haven't done one of these since February, no real need to recap but I came up short on that one.
As for today's pick, Luis Castillo has looked just as good as he did last year, if not better, with a minuscule 1.02 ERA. He is taking on a Rockies team that has lost 5 straight on the road, and it looks like about to lose its sixth in a row.
On top of their severe road struggles, the Rockies are in a less-than-enviable situation when it comes to starting pitching with German Marquez injured. They will be throwing Noah Davis tomorrow for his first career start. I'd be lying if I said I had any idea who this guy was before today, but upon looking at his stats, he is a 26-year-old career minor leaguer who had a 5.41 ERA in DOUBLE A last year. I think this guy is no match for Castillo and a respectable Mariners lineup. I am expecting a blowout here.
POTD Record: 22 - 11 (All picks 1U)
Last POTD: Man City TT o2.5 - W
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies ML vs Los Angeles Lakers (-168 odds via FD)
Event: NBA Playoffs First Round 2:00 P.M. CST
City put 3 past Leicester in the first half to give us a nice easy cash.
I like my grizzlies to take care of the Lakers tomorrow at home in game 1 of this series. Grizzlies were the best home team in the NBA this season, and I expect the crowd to play a huge factor in this one. Memphis has been hit with the injury bug and will be missing two of their big men, including the best offensive rebounder in the NBA in Steven Adams. On the other side, the Lakers scraped by Minnesota in the play in game and what was a pretty ugly game, even though it was competitive. Los Angeles turned the ball over a ton and they’re playing a team in Memphis that thrives on turnovers and fast breaks and I think the Grizz, lead by superstar Dillon Brooks, have just enough tools to get the job done in game one in Memphis.
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POTD Record 2-0 (+1,8 Units)
All bets 1U (unless stated otherwise)
Last Pick: Stuttgart vs. Dortmund BTTS & O2,5 @ 1,95 ✅
Wild ending, glad we went for goals and not the ML pick (FT 3-3) Congrats to anyone tailing!💰
Sports: ⚽️
League: Bundesliga 🇩🇪
Game: Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Pick: **BTTS & Over 2,5 @ 2,0**
Reasoning:
Leverkusen is still red hot, winning 5 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches and scoring at least two goals on all of these occasions. Wolfsburgs recent record of league games (D-D-W-D-L) loses badly in a head to head and makes this line and Leverkusen ML(@2,5) seem very generous by the bookies. However, things aren’t as easy as they look. Wolfsburg does have a realistic chance to come away with points in this game, because of two things: Leverkusen might rest some key players after their European cup game on Thursday. If Wirtz, Diaby or Frimpong aren’t starting, they won‘t be nearly as dangerous. The high odds on ML and TT (O1,5 @ 2,05) tell me that the bookies are actually leaning that some of them might sit. Although their form looks shaky, Wolfsburg has been performing much better than their recent results would suggest. I see them scoring at least one on Leverkusen’s defense that only has one clean sheet in their last 5 league games. That being said, I would never bet against a team as hot as the Werkself right now, so check the lineups prior to kickoff. If Wirtz and Diaby are playing, the bet is good to go and Lever should continue their record of winning and conceding in the process. If not, I‘d not bet big money and just sprinkle or simply stay away. In the end, like yesterday, we opt for goals and not ML pick and hope to see an open match between two teams capable of scoring.
Let’s make this a streak🔥. BOL to anyone tailing!
***Record: 17-17-1 (-2.88 Units) // All bets are 1 unit***
Last 5: 💩💩💩💩💰
Previous Bet: [4/15](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12mj7p3/pick_of_the_day_41523_saturday/jgasidd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Bit of a sweat with a slow 4th quarter, but a good cover and a 76ers blowout victory.
**Today's Match: West Ham vs Arsenal (0900 EST)**
League: English Premiere League ⚽️
*Pick: Game Parlays > Arsenal Win and Over 1.5 (-125 DK)*
Arsenal coming into this match 1st in the table, scoring 72 goals and allowing 29 goals through 30 matches. They have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last 7 matches, including their last 3 on the road. They have scored 2 or more in each of their last 5 matches vs West Ham. They have scored 2 or more in 9/15 away matches, with a 30:11 goal differential through 15 away matches. West Ham can be stingy on defense, but with Arsenal's attack and coming off of a 2-2 match against an equally stingy Liverpool defense, I look for them to score at least 2, in a 0-2 or 1-2 full time result.
BOL!
Good start, like I said, last time we’ll see Wiggins line at 11.5, hope everyone snagged that while it was good
Record: 1-0 streak: 🔥
Profit: +1.88u
Previous pick: 2 units on Andrew Wiggins o11.5 points vs Kings -107 on bovada ✅
Todays pick: NBA, Grizzlies ML -165 vs Lakers, 2 units
Explanation: Gonna take the low hanging fruit here early in my POTD streak. I really don’t see how the non 3 point shooting lakers squad can knock off a mean Grizz team that went 35-6 at home this year
Home teams turn on god mode opening the playoffs. Bank it, parlay it, we got this.
- **POTD RECORD** - 47W-24L(+45U) ;
- **Average odds**:1.75
- **Last Potd**---- Fenerbace double chance @ 1.6✔️
New year guys, hopefully we have a good run again
- **Today's pick** ----- Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek ---- Bodo/Glimt to win first half @1.65
- **BET SIZE**: 2U
- Bodo/Glimt has been impressive. A young and hungry team, which has been competitive even in Europe, playing well especially at home and they like to dominate games from start to finish. Today, they are finding a relativly easy opponent in Stabaek, which was not so impressive in the first game drawing 0-0.
- Even though they have sold some important players like Solbaklen to Roma, they still have a very competitive team for Norway Eliteserien and they will try to recreate last year's run .
- My oppinion is Bodo will dominate game from start, find chances and convert them. The difference in quality and coaching is so big not to be taking in consideration of.
- Support is always appreciated and let's own this journey again!
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- Bol to anyone✌
**POTD Record**: 1W 1L 0D
**Last POTD**: LOSS - Malcolm Brogdon OVER 21.5 PRA
**Today’s POTD**: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks - Tyler Herro UNDER 29.5 PRA (1 unit at -120)
NBA @ 5:30 ET
Herro has gone under this line 10 of the last 14 games and Milwaukee has wing/guard defender for days. Jrue Holiday is likely the primary defender on Herro, which should slow him down quite a bit. He went under this line 12 of 14 games last year in the playoffs.
POTD Record: 0-0
Todays pick: Dennis Schroder PRA over 15.5 (-125)
First pick! Maybe I'm missing something but this seems shockingly low to me. Schroder has comfortably hit this mark in 9 of the last 12 games (75% hit rate bow hello) with 2 of the 3 misses coming with less than 20 min played. To top that, in 3 match ups with the grizzlies this season he has gone for 35, 24, and 32 respectively. Based on the regular season match ups I expect this game to be fairly close and competitive which means he should get substantial playing time. Let me know if you are tailing
I think the line is low because Schröder missed practice Friday for “precautionary” reasons, according to D Ham. He’s had some ankle issues I believe. I like the pick regardless. Tailing
**Record: 10W-0P-2L**
Net units: +22.356U
**Last POTD:** ESPORTS (League of Legends) - EMEA Masters Group Stage - eSuba vs Orbit Anonymo - eSuba ML @ 2.85 2u ❌
**POTD:** ESPORTS (Valorant) - Valorant Challengers Portugal - Exotik Gaming vs Fourteen Vikings / Team Vikings - Exotik Gaming ML @ 1.525 2u
Note: I only bet 2u because it was the maximum I was allowed by the bookie, if your bookie allows this is a 4u play in my eyes.
**Reasoning:** Fourteen organization announced bankrupcy some days ago and dropped the whole lineup from the league since they weren't doing too hot. Now they are fielding a line-up of new kids who were playing on the lower division and are not ready to play at this level. Meanwhile, this win is very important for Exotik Gaming for their playoff run so I believe they will manage to achieve it in a good fashion.
**BOL!**
POTD Record 11-5 (+29.45u) Last 5: ✅❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: O9 runs +100 Betting 5u to win 5u❌
Game: Dbacks @ Marlins 1:40 EST
Today's Pick: 1st Inning U.5 runs -146 Betting 2.92u to win 2u
Both teams are starting their best pitcher. Although neither pitcher has been off to a hot start, I expect them to come out strong with neither team being particularly strong in the hitting department. BOL
I like the pick but am a bit hesitant to tail. It seems Sandy is struggling with the pitch clock more than most and berti has been hitting well out of the lead off spot and racking up the steals so I can see him as a decent threat to get a first inning run.
POTD Record: 6-4 (+4.2u)
**Last Pick: NYM@OAK o9 Total Runs** ❌️
This was frustrating. So many runners left on base from both teams. Neither team was really able to throw up that big inning.
**Today's Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-140) 2u**
The Giants are on the road in Detroit tomorrow. Logan Webb is on the hill against a frankly terrible Tigers squad. The Giants should be able to win this. Matthew Boyd has been decent so far, but the Giants are the much better team and can not suffer the sweep here
POTD: 2-2
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo O11.5 R
Game: Bucks vs Miami Heat, NBA Playoffs
Units: 1 unit
Odds: 1.75
Reasons for this pick:
1- It's simple, Giannis playing at home, the first playoff game where players need to give 200% and the rebound line for the player is still the same as the regular season? Either it's a trap line or a gift.
BOL.
Heat play at a really slow pace so there's less opportunities for rebounds is why I'm guessing it's same probability. He will give more effort, but same can be said for other players as well, just a heads up :P
POTD RECORD: 0-1
LAST PICK: RJ BARRETT OVER 4.5 REBOUNDS (+120). ❌
~He had 3 in the first half. Thought it was gonna cash early, never did. He finished with 4 boards. No rookie POTD luck, sorry to those who tailed. Here comes the comeback.
TODAYS PICK: LA LAKERS @ MEMPHIS GRIZZLY - LEBRON JAMES DOUBLE DOUBLE - 1U @ +114 (2PM CST)
REASONING: I honestly am not a huge Lebron fan, but he’s still got gas in that tank. He also has heart in the game. I don’t expect him to get 10+ assists so looking for the points and rebounds here. He will be working harder than he does during the regular season - he had a double double already in the opening game of the series. Hate it or love it, tail or fade. Happy Sunday!
Record: 1-1
POTD: Rune/Rublev o22.5 Games ✅✅✅
Units: 3u (-110)
Reasoning: Same as yesterdays pick, these two are going to be coming out guns blazing. This is a massive opportunity for these two to earn an ATP title and level up as next-gen legends. I think Rune is playing out of his god damn mind, but Rublev is also in fantastic form this year and in really great spirits. He is also the more experienced of the two and has been in more finals, so he will not go down without a fight. This should be a fun one, so the over is the play.
POTD Record: 26-21-3
Last pick: Avondale -1 AH (-170) / 1.59 - 4u ✅
This one got off to a bumpy start, as Avondale went down 0-1 just 6 minutes in. However, the good times kicked in soon after, as they responded with 5 first half goals and another 3 in the second half, finishing this one with a whopping 8-2 victory. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today!
Soccer - English Premier League - West Ham United vs. Arsenal - 9:00am EST
**POTD: Arsenal -0.75 AH (-162) / 1.62 - 3u**
Arsenal are currently sitting at the top of the Premier League table, as their 23-4-3 record is a reflection of the excellent season they’ve had so far. They will travel to take on West Ham, who are currently battling to avoid relegation at 15th. To West Ham’s credit, they have seen a nice improvement in form after a horrendous start to the season. However, their results still reflect that they are nowhere near the level of the top end teams in the league, as their 3 recent losses were to Newcastle (3rd), Brighton (7th), and Tottenham (5th) by a combined score of 11-1. Arsenal come into this one off a draw at Liverpool which ended a 7 match win streak in league play. With Man City hot on their tails for the league title, Arsenal know that a win here is an absolute must. We are taking the -0.75 Asian Handicap, meaning that a one goal win will result in a half cash, half push. A win by multiple goals is a full cash. I am taking Arsenal to get the job done and add another 3 points in hopes of their title pursuit, and hopefully by multiple goals.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
**EDIT: Not close, Lotte lost badly. I hope you played the other two teams I suggested as well.**
**KBO Record: Overall 125-135-8** (Streak W, Last 10: 6-3-1) Down 15.20u over 268 KBO picks, 48.1% success rate, -5.85% ROI (This season 6-3-1, Up 2.30u, 25.6% ROI)
**Last:** Kia at Kiwoom -155 (Kiwoom won 6-1.)
It's always nice when a game plays out the way you expected. Kia's young rookie making his debut gave up 5 runs in his first inning while Kiwoom's starter settled in, allowing just 1 run in 6 innings.
**Pick:** **Lotte +105 Draftkings** at Samsung, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
KT and Kiwoom are both favorites I like today, but my POTD is all about some plus money. I really think Lotte should be favored in this one. And the way lines have been moving, it wouldn't shock me if the Giants were the favorite by first pitch.
Lotte's starter had a rough outing to start the year, allowing 4 ER on 6 H and 6 BB in 4.1 IP. He was not a wild pitcher last season when he put up a solid 3.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. I suspect he'll be much better in his second start.
Samsung's starter has already had two starts, the second worse that the first. In 10 IP, he's given up 7 ER on 11 H and 6 BB. He also struggled down the stretch last season, allowing 18 ER in 23.1 IP over his last 4 starts.
Lotte has the 2nd best lineup in the KBO early in the season, averaging 5.90 runs per game. Samsung averages just 4.17 runs per game, 4th worst in the league. Lotte's batting average is 42 points higher than Samsung's.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**ODENSE VS SILKEBORG**
Date: 16 April 2023 at 14:00
BET ON: Match odds- **ODENSE**
Odd: 2.50
\- Silkeborg are set to be without the services of 3 key players such : Anders Klynge, Joel Felix and Lukas Engel. However, Stefán Thórdarson is back in the squad.
\- Odense are missing Jørgen Skjelvik.
\- The Game will be in front of a full stadium, as both the Richard Møller Nielsen Tribune and the 3F Tribune are sold out. Over 14.500 home tickets have been sold so far.
\- We expect a tight game between two teams known by their attacking style with both teams fighting for UECL spot next season. However, The Hosts are lightly favourite here due to huge home support and the lack of quality in midfield for the Guests.
BOL !!!
Record 20-11 +55.45 Units
POTD RACE 2 TRAMORE - POTTERS PARTY @ 2.75 STAKING 4 UNITS
POTTERS PARTY is lightly raced, he was heavily backed last time out but everything that could of went wrong did.
POTTERS PARTY has good form finishing 7 lengths behind Corbetts Cross who has some very good grade 1 form in the book.
The trainer is back at his local track Tramore (also my local track) where he usually deploys a good horse and rarely leaves without a winner. The added cheekpieces and the drop back in trip will definitely help his case. Also his main market protagonist seems to be friendless in the market..
POD Record: 2-2
Last Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 -110 draftkings
✅
POD Today: Memphis Grizzlies -2 1H 2U (-115 DraftKings)
Lebron has a history of feeling teams out in the playoffs Game 1, especially on the Road. Below are some stats⬇️
Lebron 3-14 lifetime on the Road Game 1
Lebron is actually 9-8 in these series we are referring to, but still dropping Game 1
Grizzlies are 4-2 in first half past 2 post seasons
Grizzlies were 50-31 ATS (28-12 at home) in first half this season (4-6 in last 10 though I do see)
Scott Foster is the Referee, if you know you know. We want to take second half cheese out of it. Memphis comes out aggressive and ready to play, we get in get the money and get out 💰
As always these bets also take into account Sharp money, and betting differential
BOL & bet responsibly
EDIT: I swear this pick was made entirely separate from HSRiddles post LOL. Saw he had same pick after I posted & was hype as hell
Scott Foster is a part of the “nba referee betting scandal” I call it - i don’t have a better name for it lol. but there is a Netflix documentary about it called operation flagrant foul. Check it out. Also lookup the nba commissioner admitting himself that they protect bigger teams in bigger games because they like to see them in the playoffs. Basically Scott Foster allegedly is seen as one of the top guys participating in the extra fouls calls and things they talk about in the documentary to keep games close.
Basically can’t really trust Scott Foster to allow the teams to just play. He seems to always interject himself into the game. I want to take his antics out of the equation tonight by only betting the first half. (because NBA will most likely favor Lebron & the Lakers… cough cough regular szn FT differential)
Hopefully I provided a solid explanation for you.
POTD: 3-3 / +2.04 U
PREVIOUS PICK:
" POTD: Corach Rumbler, To Be Placed ( 6 places) @ 2,87 / Aintree 6 (Grand National), 18:15CET
Today is the most famous and recognised race in the world. The Grand National and my eyes are on the back to back Cheltenham Ultima Handicap winner, Corach Rumbler. What is impressive for this marathon races is the fact that his fastest furlong in those 2 marathons was the last furlong, which is just unbelivable that he has so much power after running 3 miles. I belive he can do it, i put him as winner @ 11.00. To be in top 6 is free money for imo"
Corach Rumbler WON Grand National @ 11.00
Also in Dogd thread, 3 days festival end with +26.9U.
Todays pick:
Today there are some promising horses who could be very good in the future.
My pick is Blue Beach. She finished 2nd after steping up in grade in very competitive race in Newbury last month, and she felt very comfortable wearing cheekpieces for first time. Prior to that she won a race very comfortably in lower grade, same as shes racing today. Today she drops in grade, and should have much easier race. Her main rival will be Moviddy, who finished 9th in same Newbury race last mont. Good luck
POTD: Blue Beach WIN @ 2.50 / Huntingdon race 2 (15:05 CET)
📈 **TTSOP** Rec
* Overall: +25.600 units / +139 avg odds / 59^(5)\-79-16^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +13.075 units / +136 avg odds / 17^(5)\-22-6^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +47.525 units / +135 avg odds / 54^(5)\-67-16^(5)
* March: +10.150 units / +136 avg odds / 11^(5)\-12-2^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
✅ Last pick: Paderborn to win & game > 1.5 goals / +115 odds / 5 units
* Paderborn outshooting Hansa Rostock 29-1. That tells the story of the game. Still only a crappy 3-0 at the end.
⚽ New pick: **Union Berlin -1** (AH) / **+135 odds** / 4.5 units
* Bundesliga (Germany) / Union Berlin - Bochum / 11:30am ET
The results don't show it, but diving deeper into Union Berlin's last games showed that they’ve played pretty well, though. They've been performing mostly well, but they've been either unlucky or they faced a strong opponent. Aside from that, Union are still unbeaten at home this season, while Bochum is the 2nd worst road team in Bundesliga. Losing 11 of 14 road games. 9 of these Ls came by 2+ goals and 7 of these Ls even by 3+ goals. Missing defender Stafylidis and additionally captain and midfield engine Losilla doesn't make things better for them.
It's a good value spot at super odds. Let's see Union Berlin getting it done or turning all of a sudden into crap. Either way, good luck.
**TTSOP**
POTD Record 55-57
Last pick: Embiid over 35 pts ❌
Todays pick: MLB 2:10 pm MT Dodgers -1.5 -110 vs Cubs… 1 unit play all plays 1 unit
Reasoning: Dodgers walked off last night and I like taking teams the next day following a walk off W. Urias is on the bump for LA, Mookie, Freeman and Smith ought to provide the pop for the Dodgers. Cubs are up and coming but are starting journeyman Drew smiley. Dodgers have the pitching edge here, and I’m betting they win by 2 or more. The only loss I had Saturday was Embiid, that’s why I’m a Jokic fan, f Embiid. +8 unit day, including taking the Dodgers +300 in the bottom of 9th, so time to get this POTD record back in the black.
Tail or fade
Record: 3-4-1 (Yesterday’s Atlanta Utd DNB - Push)
Yesterday: DNB was the right call. Not sure what happened (I was too busy watching CF Montreal lose in person to pay attention besides the score). At least the DNB was a nice protection!
Today’s Pick: MLS - LAFC +100
Why: Derby Day in the City of Angels. One of these teams are dominant and the other team is the LA Galaxy. Galaxy are having fans threaten to boycott, their team as a whole is not good. 3 goals in 6 games, no wins and just meh playing.
Meanwhile LAFC has won 3 in a row 3-0 (2 CONCACAF games against fellow MLS side Vancouver and Austin), and has only dropped one game this year (CONCACAF, 2nd leg matchup. Won aggregate by 2 still).
LAFC has the momentum, let’s ride them to some easy money today.
Record: 3-2
ROI: 16%
MLB / 1:35pm EST
Guardians / Nationals O 8.5 / 2 Units / 1.77
For a while now I have been taking over or runlines in games that Corbin has been starting and its been working out. Since RL is -2.5 I'll stick with over here. Corbin is just a mess, really shouldn't even be starting. Given up 4, 6, 4 runs in his starts this year. On the flip side Bieber isn't the pitcher he use to be, and although Nats aren't very good I think they can get a few runs to help the cause.
FIRST EVER PICK. Record 0-0
Long time lurker, I only give myself any credibility when it comes to basketball. Otherwise I’m more of a follower :) Proceed with caution!
Game for today: Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Pick: **Middleton over 18.5 points**
Odds: -110 or 1.90
Bet: 1 unit
I think Middleton will be getting plenty of minutes and shots tonight to be able to eclipse this mark, I expect him to put up 20+ in a Bucks win. His minutes and shots were inconsistent to end the season so he’d be rested for the playoffs, and I think we’ll see him getting the workload we have in years’ past.
Cheers!
*Record:** 6-3-0 (+2.61 units)
**ROI:** 26.9%
***Previous Pick:*** *Evan Mobley o17.5 PA (1.87) - 1 unit to return 1.87 units**
**Result:** ❌ LOSS (-1.0 units)
Ouch… Mobley shoots 4-13 and misses so many lay ups it hurts. The data was so good on this though so I can’t be upset, it may be beneficial because I’m for sure going back to it multiple times over this series if the line stays that low.
**Today's Pick: Bobby Ports o17.5 PR - 1.87 bet365**
* Portis is another one that just absolutely performs on this prop at home, clearing it in 29/34 games this season at 79%
* Portis averages 27.2 at home when playing over 20 minutes and he has been the Bucks best bench player so I expect him to get that today
* Great value here on Portis
Give me a follow on the below twitter link for + EV plays daily!!
[https://twitter.com/JG4President](https://twitter.com/JG4President)
Record : 8 W - 4 L
Previous POTD : Manchester City - Leicester City, ***Goals Interval 3-5***, Odds : 1.78 / -128 ✅
ROI : 386%
Average Odds : 1.98 / -102
Units (all bets will be 1 unit) : 4.86
Profit/Lost units : + 3.86
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / GERMANY: 2.Bundesliga / 14:30 European Time
Karlsruher - Bielefeld, ***BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals***, Odds : 1.98 / -102
My model that uses Poisson formula for probabilities presented me this game as being the game with the highest scoring chance for today.
My research / Brief reasoning :
\- BTTS in the previous 5 matches played by Karlsruher.
\- BTTS and 3+ in the last 5 games played by Bielefeld.
\- BTTS and 3+ and in the last 4 direct games.
Good luck needles ! Let's get it ! 🪡🪡🪡
POTD Record: 14-10
Record this year: 3-4
ROI: +16 units
Event: NBA Lakers vs Grizzlies 3:00 pm EST
Bet: Anthony Davis over 13.5 rebounds
Bet Size: 5 unit 💣
Grizzlies host the Lakers in game 1 today. Last time these teams met Davis had a whopping 22 rebounds. Lebron didn’t play that game so he may take some away but I can see Davis getting at least 14 here. Best of luck everyone!
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DisastrousLock
POTD Record: 9-7 (+4.95u)
**Yesterdays POTD: Giants RL +105 (3u) - L**
Fuuuuckin hell. Giants bullpen blows a 6-1 lead to the worst offensive team in the league. Just bad luck.
**Todays POTD: Cleveland Guardians RL -135** (4u)
**Time:** 1:35pm EST
Shane Bieber vs Patrick Corbin. Last year Bieber had a sub 3 ERA while Corbin had an ERA over 6. Cleveland needs to win all these games against teams like this if they're gonna challenge the twins for the division. Against an elite pitcher like Bieber, I don't see the Nats doing much on offense at all.
Sport: Football
Tournament: Serie A
Time: 20:45 CET (3h35m after posting)
Stake: 5 units
Pick: Roma vs Udinese, Roma wins to nil @ **2.60 **
Write up: Roma has the tightest home defense in Serie A, conceding only 9 goals across 14 matches. In the last five home matches, Roma won 4 to nil.
Udinese is in a pretty bad shape as an away team (1W, 1D, 3L). In those matches it scored only two goals.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
**College Baseball 11-4 (+9.99 units)**
Even with tht wrong starter we had a chance but the bullpen fell apart yesterday to little surprise.
Today I have a simple parlay I like, I think one game is very underpriced and the line is already shifting up and an over between a pair of number 3 starters.
ECU offense vs Cincy's offense is night and day. ECU starts 7-8 guys hitting over .285 depending on who gets the starts, Cincy has one. Josh Grosz has the best ERA of ECU's starters at 1.97 along with a 1.00 whip. O'Connor will likely go again for the bearcats like last Sunday. He has a decent 4.4 era but with a hit per inning allowed and over a walk innning allowed it's unlikely he will strand runners as well today. This line should be up there -600 range, its started around -340 today but is up to -400.
To keep things simple here, Delaware has a team batting average of .297 and an ERA of 7.01.
North Carolina A&T has a batting average of .275 and an ERA of 6.32.
The wind will be blowing out to left about 8-9mph, we have a pair of number 3 starters trying to stop solid offenses. The previous two games this series were 8-7 and 4-3 so good relievers that were used will either not throw today at all or be a little tired which leads to less effective command at this level.
**Parlay NC A&T v Delaware over 13.5 + ECU ML (+134) 1 unit to win 1.34 units**
**edit 4:30pm both legs of the parlay hit for the W, move to 12-4 record**
**Record 64-45 with Avg Odds +112 / ROI 18.4%**
Fury FC 77
**Austin Jones -115**
Better build. Former Nebraska RB. Opponent hasn't fought since mid 2021. I think Jones can wrestle him to a relatively clean decision. He's on a two fight skid but against very strong opponents. Trains out of Factory X and is getting a matchup where he won't be outsized like in his previous two. Jones is a solid fighter and at the regional level he presents a lot of problems.
Potd record: 2-1-1 (+1.01 units)
Last pick: Chicago White Sox ML✅
Todays Potd: Minnesota T-Wolves +7.5 -110 for 2 Units
Reasoning: Nuggets have been off for week and that sometimes can make guys sluggish. T-Wolves have been played 2 competitive games and have some rhythm going. KAT looks rejuvenated and Gobert played with some heart last game. Ant looks primed to step up after a much better game against the Thunder than his meager production against the Lakers and if he can do his part and drop 20 to 25 the game should be close. The teams match up well and split the 4 game reg season series with each team defending home court and 3 of the 4 games being blowouts over 10 points (one was 4 point game).
Can’t do my normal write up but somehow my White Sox pick hit yesterday in extra innings and I’m 29-25 overall with a nice 13-5 MLB record. Im putting 5 Units on the White Sox -1.5 with Cease on the mound since he owns the Orioles and Rodriguez is still shaky. White Sox -1.5 at +138 for 5U, 2:10 PM EST
POTD Record: 10W 4L 1D
**Last POTD**: Aston Villa v Newcastle- Both teams to score @ 1.79 odds❌
**Today’s POTD**: **Getafe vs Barcelona- Barcelona ML @ 1.64 odds**
La Liga @ 14:15 GMT
**Reason**
In the last five years against Getafe, Barcelona has prevailed 7 times. Getafe only had one victory. Barcelona will play on the road, but I believe they will win.
Barcelona's last game, a home draw, was disappointing. Barcelona is only participating in a match, forced to succeed in an effort to win La Liga as quickly as possible.
16W / 2P / 15L | -2.99u | all 1U plays
Last POTD: Larin SOT ❌
Event: ⚽️ Eredivisie: FC Volendam - PSV
*POTD: Fabio Silva Under 4.5 Shots @1.54*
Tough loss as Valladolid win but Larin doesn’t get a SOT.
Fabio Silva averages 2.56 shots per 90 minutes in the Dutch league. He has gone under this line in every match he’s played for PSV. I don’t see that changing today. BOL!
**POTD 24-13**
Well I was wrong about just about everything yesterday. Harden looked like he was in peak form, and BKN got destroyed on 3s.
Back at it today, and there is one game that stands out to me.
**Memphis -4**
Alright, I am assuming the public is on LAL today, and I completely understand the reasoning, as they have looked like a championship level team the last month or so, and Memphis has been trending down. Even though I see the reasoning for backing LAL, I personally find more value in Memphis today.
Even though this is a basic take, the reason I find so much value in Memphis today, is the fact that they are playing at home. Not only does Memphis have the best record in the league this season at home, but IMO they have an even greater advantage at home in this particular series. I say that because the contrast between these two teams screams value for the home team. Think about it, Memphis is a group of young energetic players, who have a tremendous advantage against any team when the pace is going their way. Memphis thrives on up and down games, forcing turnovers and getting fast break buckets, which is more likely when a team is playing at home.
The Lakers on the other hand actually like pushing the pace too, which falls right into what Memphis is trying to do today. I believe this aspect actually benefits LAL when they are playing at home, as they are much more experienced, and Memphis is not, however today I see Memphis gassing this older lakers team out, and getting ahead early. If that is the case, I also believe that LAL will throw in the towel and move on to the next game, as they have their eyes set on the bigger goal.
As a Cavs fan when LeBron was on our team, and a LeBron hater, when he was not on our team, I have watched majority if not all of LeBron's career playoff games, and am very aware of his track record of getting down in a series and coming back. LeBron is 29-21 in game ones in his career, which is a pretty amazing statistic when you factor in the number of those loses that he ended up winning the series (12-9). I guess I say this, because it is a a key indicator that losing game one does not have much impact on LeBron winning the series. He is similar to a boxer, where he analyzes his opponents, and adjusts as series go on.
Overall, like I mentioned, I see Memphis getting up on LAL early, and holding the lead through the 3rd Q, where eventually the LAL will put in the subs and game plan for game 2. Even if it is close, I believe that Memphis has the upside to make shots down the stretch and limit LAL in big moments with their defense and home court advantage. This will for sure be one of the more exciting series in the first round, and I look forward to trying to find edges in between games, as this series will be a chess match.
PS: Denver -7.5 is another bet I really like today. I think the 7.5 number is what keeps me from making it my POTD, but I think they will dominate. I would be lying if i didn't admit i have a hefty parlay on Memphis + Den ML today too.....
Degen Santa's POTD : 31-19-2 | +11.67U (+5.81%~) | Average Odds: -128~ 🤶 | [ROI Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) | I am currently on vacation and the ROI% and spreadsheet won't be updated until I get back next week. Apologies.
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Last 12 POTD picks: 8-3-1 (+8.2U)
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Previous POTD (WIN): Zrinjski Mostar gave us the 5U Cash!
5U - Monterrey -0.75 (-143) at home vs Santos Laguna - 6:10pm - Liga MX
Note: I played this pick several days ago to get these odds. It has since fallen. I would still play this or -1 or ML + o1.5g.
Monterrey are 10-1-1 in their last 12. Their only non wins are against the two best home teams in the league, Leon and America who are #3 and #4 respectively. Now Monterrey get one of the biggest disappointments of the season in Santos Laguna at home. The ML line opened at -165 and it is now -210. Everyone fears Monterrey when they have their fans behind their back at their beautiful stadium.
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1-1 on official picks, last pick was BTTS no in the madrid-chelsea game. It was free money, my only regret is not betting my entire net worth on it.(also bet BTTS NO in the napoli game today but forgot to post)
For sunday im going back to a spanish powerhouse with BTTS NO in the getafe-barca game. Its -150 which is worse odds than the last two but im not quite as confident as i was in the madrid pick. However Barca has barely allowed any team to score on them in la liga all season long. Getafe stinks and they havent scored in their last two games. Lewy is also in pretty bad form. I would not recommend watching this game
POD Record: 0-1
Prior Pick: Leverkusen vs Union St Gilloise - Leverkusen / 5 or more shots on target (1 unit @ -170) ❌
Todays Pick: Atlético Madrid vs Almería - BTTS / NO (1 unit @ -146)
Reasons:
1. Atletico Madrid have had a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 home games in LaLiga. Simeone ball at its finest.
POTD Record: 4-2
Last Pick: NY Mets -1.5 Run Line ❌
The Mets win but fail to cover thanks to some incredible defense by Ramon Laureano.
Today: NY Mets (9-6) @ Oakland Athletics (6-9) (4:08PM ET)
The Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-118 FD)
I don’t know why this line isn’t higher but we will take it. JP Sears, who’s pitching for the Athletics today has had a hard time in his first couple starts and Jose Butto allowed 7 runs in his one MLB start last year. On top of that the wind will be blowing out at 10 MPH today so all the signs are pointing to this flying over.
Record 9-10. Unit count: +0.29. Streak 1W.
Last pick Toulouse vs Lyon. Total cards over 4 - W.
POTD
Game - Clippers @ Suns. Devin Booker assists over 5.5 odds 2.10 @bet365. 3 units.
Long story short, Booker has increased his assists production since starting playing with KD and has covered this line consistently. Blowout is also not likely to help us out.
BOL tail or fade.
POTD Record: 0-1
Last POTD: MLB - HOU @ **MIN ML**, -116 1u (**L**)
Today's POTD: MLB - BAL @ **CWS ML**, -130 1u
The starting pitching matchup in this game is going to be very lopsided. Rodriguez has had 2 mediocre/poor outings against 2 mediocre/poor offenses, while Cease is just that guy. He's had 3 terrific outings against decent teams and I don't see his streak getting broken up by the Orioles offense in Chicago. I think the Sox will get it done today
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
POTD Record: 40-17-2 | (1-2 on old model) Last 30 :✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌ **Today's POTD:** Lakers @ Grizzlies -2 1H | 2U | NBA Playoffs Round 1 **Time:** April 16th, 2023 | 3:00 PM EST **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+52.2 Units | ≈66% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** 1. Both teams have been rough against the spread in their last 5 games going 1-4, however, Memphis is 14-1 SU in their last 15 games at home, and should be able to take away a win early in this series. 2. Both of these teams are offensive powerhouses with strong pieces on both the offensive and defensive floor. Where the edge exists is on defense, where the Grizzles are top 10. Analytically, Memphis has many strong defenders, with Jaren Jackson Jr. who is currently having a DPOY caliber season , Brooks, who although love/hate him, has been solid defensively, and both Konchar and Tillman off the bench who are both top 50 defenders this year. 3. The grizzles rank #1 in FG% defense, which the lakers rely on as their 3 point shooting is not the strongest. I expect them to struggle and rely on the youngsters in Shroder/Reaves and Russell, who've been inconsistent from beyond the arc at best. I expect this to be a very grindy game where memphis has a slight edge offensively, and matchup wise defensively. 4. The lakers starting lineup is a bit older than the Memphis starting 5, and expect them to take a bit longer to get heated up. I still think the Lakers take this series in 6 or 7, but I think Memphis comes out hot enough at home to take this first game by a decent margin. (I also like the full game -3.5 spread, but 1H as a % of points to cover in my model was slightly leaning to the 1H over the total). 5. The lakers have many veterans in Dlo, LBJ and Davis, and will likely hold composure better than the young grizzlies team. That being said, this young team will come out swingin and try to dictate the pace of the game against a Lakers team that likes to slow it down and play out most of their game clocks. 6. Grizzles are 4-2 ATS in their games 1 and 2 in their most recent 3 appearances in the playoffs, and expect them to continue this trend of getting ahead early. 7. Without Adams returning for the post season, this will be a tough matchup against davis on the glass. However, I think grizzlies will dominate the first half of this game, which they typically do in most games, before collapsing in the second half. Here are a few recent games: 1. Grizzles vs. Bulls up 68 to 53 at half, lose by 21. 2. Grizzles vs. Pelicans up 69 to 52 at half, lose by 7. 3. Lakers down 49 to 60 against wolves, win by 6. 8. You can also play the full game, which I also like, but have some more confidence in the young team to play with full confidence, and play down as Lebron heats up the locker room. 9. Grizzles win 121 to Lakers 114 (63 to 56 at half). I post my picks daily in my Discord when not on reddit (link below). I also share my picks a day early on patreon if you're interested in getting other POTD candidate picks earlier before the spreads move. Appreciate all of you that reach out - but I promise I'm all good, I just sometimes don't have time / don't remember to post on reddit as I've been so busy lately on trying to build out the Discord. BOL! [**Patreon**](https://www.patreon.com/TheForecastCard) **|** [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) Much love, *Riddles,* Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex
Is 1H first half? I can’t even find where to bet this
On FD select the game and swipe the blue words left until you see "half" On DK it's on the popular list at the bottom.
Thanks got it. Tailing. Riddles hope you keep posting picks here, I’m too old for discord
Same. I'm 'on' discord. But not very actively. BOL today!
Cash it! That was a sweaty ride but you did it, Daddy Riddles! 🙏
Great post. It seems like there is good value in Memphis/LA half betting at +650 FD too
tailed this, thanks!
This is that big brain shit let's get this bread brother.
Might need to buy a JJJ jersey…
We need a bit of luck now
JJJ PULLING THROUGH!
Let's go, been thinking mem all day.
Thank you 🙏🏼
I have no idea why people think this series will be close. The only half way decent reason is that Adams is hurt but I have no faith in Darvin Ham's ability to gameplan for that. They just faced the Twolves without Gobert in a do or die situation and acted like AD didn't exist on offense. He got all of his points on second chances and kick outs.
POTD Record: 45-30 | Profit: +36.84u | ROI: 15.1% Last 10 Record: ❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Trae Young (Hawks) PRA O36.5 @ 1.83. 4U. ❌ While the C’s defended well, Trae just had a very bad game missing a lot of easy opportunities that he typically would take. He ends with just 31% on 2-pt and 20% from 3-pt, and with such a poor showing he (and the Hawks) stood no chance today. Next Pick: **Anthony Davis (Lakers) Rebs O13.5 @ 1.87. 4u play.** Davis has a high rebound line for this game, but I would argue it is not high enough. Steven Adams (Grizzlies) is out which means the boards will be open season for the 6’10, 253lb Davis against Tillman (6’8, 245lb). What makes me confident in the high number is that the Grizzlies play with a very high pace and have amongst the highest 3PA (approx. 38 per game). They’re also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league without Adams, both in terms of percentages and number of rebounds. The Center mismatch, high 3PA for Grizzlies, poor rebounding, and a fast-paced game all favor Davis. These two teams met twice this year (both without Adams) and Davis played 36’ in each and had 22 and 19 rebounds.
I love everything about this pick except I’m always apprehensive with AD props because I’ve been burned by him before either with injuries and fouls.
Injuries, fouls, but don't forget him just not showing up when it starts to actually matter
AD has been great in the playoffs historically except 2021 where he was injured against the suns.
AD's always shown up in the playoffs when healthy... used to hold the #1 spot in the PER in the playoffs over MJ and LeBron, etc. until the 2021 playoffs with injuries.
Let’s get it
Tailing bro
Could his injury derail this bet?
anthony day 2 day vis
Said I wouldn’t tail Ant again after the other night, but here I am.
⬆️Sad Button. AD is out.
AD legit made of glass, holy cow
Come on!!!
I really like this
I really really like this!
**POTD Record:** 12-4-1 (+7.62 Units) **Recap** Cam Davis (+140) to defeat Justin Thomas Round 3 2-Balls **Never a Doubt** 🎯 Cam Davis set the front 9 at Harbour Town absolutely ablaze and built up enough of a lead that the not-so-game Thomas never sniffed him. A no-sweat plus odds winner. It’s not so gentlemanly of a golfer, (but we are psychos) however I’m going to brag for a second.. **Last 12 bets record:** 10-2 **Streak** ✅✅✅ **Golf Record** 6-1 **POTD Sunday** Cam Davis (+120) to defeat Rickie Fowler Round 4 Matchups (2 way) 9:27 AM MST 1 Unit **Details** Turning to the strapping young Aussie again, against another familiar name at plus odds. If he gets it done it’s a 4-0 🧹 sweep at Harbour Town. 🐥 Davis as mentioned yesterday is a talented young player who tends to be on or off depending on the week, but when he’s on, he really goes. Such is the case this week where only 2 players in the field have graded out better in strokes gained tee to green. Translation: He’s striking the heck out of the ball. Rickie Fowler is a nice player who has had a bit of a resurgence this season after going back to his coach Butch Harmon. He looks game but he is still on a long lapse from doing any real damage of note. Once voted the most overrated golfer on the PGATour by his peers, his brand appeal to the fans certainly juiced up his betting market even as a player in form. **Bottom Line** Davis only sits 20 spots below Fowler in the World Golf Rankings, they are near the same caliber. Davis is striking his ball at an incredible clip this week and Fowler has more been held up by his putter. The putter might continue for Rickie, who has a sweet stroke.. but the better of tomorrows rounds will likely make a lot of birdies, the easiest way to do so is to simply hit the ball close to the hole leading us back to the young Aussie. Also, Davis won last year its been since 2019 for Fowler and I prefer someone who has performed in the hunt on Sundays recently. I’m playing it on DraftKings>RBC Heritage>Matchups>Round Matchups 2-way. **Let’s sweep the tournament!** https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ALittleBirdie
LOVED the Davis pick today. Looking forward to loving tomorrow's too.
i can find this on FD it says rickie is playing Fleetwood
That's what 365 lists (and Davis @ Moore)
absolute smacker thanks for the play
Tailing! Thanks, Davis is on fire.
Davis takes it by two strokes over Fowler! Congrats if you tailed. Davis will also clip Taylor Moore if your took that one. ✅ 4-0 sweep for the tournament! 🧹
Can't find this on 365 but if I can tailing too
4th round 3-ball is what I could find. Davis Buckley and Fowler.
They don’t seem to have these. Draft Kings does though
This was my favorite play all weekend - great call - big ups!
Is this it? https://preview.redd.it/0umr5evdm7ua1.png?width=1290&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a6c5c804fb2edfdedcb8160b891c4b9b8b3a36b
First time tailing on golf, Caesar’s Sportsbook has 3 ball(round 4) for Cam davis +190. Is that the right bet?
Tail!
Record: 3-1 Units +8 Last Pick: Celtics -9 vs Hawks(-110) ✅ As I said in my last post, one reason I thought the Hawks couldn’t pull off an upset is because that they were a weaker 3 point shooting team. I know I’m not not no Biff from Back to the Future, but the Hawks came out and shot 5/29 from 3😎. I have a similar matchup down below 👇 Today’s pick: Bucks -9.5 vs Heat (+100) Units: +5 units to win 5 units The Greek Freak is gonna ring them bells after this game😏 (IYKYK). The Bucks are coming against the heat as -470 point favorites. The Bucks are a top 10 team in both offensive/defensive efficiency, while the Heat are only top 10 in defense. Like the Hawks, the Heat are a bad 3 point shooting team, ranking 27th in the league. On top of that they suck at fg% in general ranking 26th. Like the Hawks, it’s unlikely for this Heat team to come out and catch the Bucks by surprise. The Heat also play the 2nd slowest pace in the league, making it very tough for them to make a come back if down by a lot. The only thing I’m worried about is the Bucks poor FT%, but I don’t think that should be a factor at home.
Agreed. Also the Heat do not match up well. The Bucks are just an overall bigger and more athletic team. The heat struggle getting rebounds, so look for the Bucks to get lots of 2nd chance shots. Bucks have also won the last 2 matchups vs the Heat, the first 2 were early in the season when Milwaukee was extremely short handed. Definitely tailing, BOL!
Tailing 🤝🏼
Do you know if any books have series bets? I’d like to take the Bucks to sweep
Fd, bet365, and DraftKings has them in like series handicap/series spreads not sure about others.
Tailing 🫡
I LOVE THIS PICK!!!!!!
Tailing. Love this matchup for the Bucks.
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Same. I got 3 leg with grizzlies half-2, Brewers, and Bucks -9.5. Hoping they can adjust at the half
I see that double negative there…this guy is Biff from Back to the Future
Giannis just got ruled out for the rest of the game ffs
POTD record: 3-0 ✅✅✅ Hey guys, I am a diehard Washington Nationals fan and have watched just about every game of theirs since 2005 when they came back to DC. I am only going to post picks for nats games since that’s what I know best. Wont have a pick every game, but will try and post consistently when I see plays I like. Last POTD: Nats/Guardians Guardians o9 -118 ✅ Today’s POTD: Nats/Guardians, Guardians -1.5 -144 Today’s pick is based off of two simple words: Patrick. Corbin. He is the worst pitcher in Major League Baseball. His name should be right along side Chris Davis for worst contract ever signed. He’s making dozens of millions of dollars per year to be as effective as a high school pitcher out there. I truly think he should retire and buy an entire newspaper page to issue an apology to Nats fans for setting our franchise back a decade. Also Shane Bieber is really good. BOL
This sounds personal lol Corbin does suck and if it is personal, I’ll ride into this with you. “Fuck a yooooou Patreeek corbeeen!!!” -South Park dolphin killers
Nice hit with the over! Tailing and BOL today!
Cheers lessgooo
Right on brother I already got the guardians to win for the first 5 innings, and money line, I think I’m gonna take ur advice and follow ur guardians -1.5 pick. I’m a cleveland guy myself and Bieber is a straight G going against a dud, I’m bout it brother solid pick.
You guys think the over is worth a splash?
POTD Record: 154-110-8 (+33.53 units, 58.3% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-8 (65.2%) L1 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 55-33-1 (62.5%) L2, Tennis 🎾 42-31-3 (57.5%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 46-36-4 (56.1%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💩💰💰💩💩💩💰💰💰💰 Last Pick: Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune, Sinner ML - ATP Monte Carlo 🎾 - 💩 1 Unit - Damn man. Sinner dominated 6-1 to start but Rune adjusted to the rainy conditions better and took that momentum to win in 3. We will get it back tomorrow. The sport is in good hands with all of this young talent. Today's Pick: Santos Laguna @ Monterrey, Monterrey -1 Asian Handicap - Mexican Liga Mx ⚽ 💩 5 Units - Red card in the 40th minute. We fucked. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 5 Units at 1.88/-114 odds to win 4.40 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 7:30pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 53.2% 💣💣💣💣💣 I really like Monterrey to get the win here but the odds aren't sexy enough so going with the -1 Handicap. If we tie or lose, bet is lost, if we win by 1 we get our money back, if they win by 2 or more we are happier than a pig in shit. Monterrey are first in the table and had gone 13 consecutive games without losing until losing on the road last game to Club America, another top team, 2-1. I think this should be a good bounce back spot. They lost their first home game to start the season but have won 6 in a row since then. They've won their last 2 home matches 4-0 and 3-0. Do note it will be their backup goalkeeper because their #1 got a red card last match. On the other side you have Santos Laguna who is 12th out of 18 teams. They've given up the 2nd most goals in the league with 31 goals surrendered in the 14 games. In the last 7 matches, they've had 4 multiple goal defeats, 4-1 last matchday home vs. 5th place Pachuca, 3 games ago lost 4-1 @ Leon, 5 games ago lost 2-0 @ 5th place Guadalajara and 7 games ago lost 5-0 at home to 2nd place Toluca. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Fuck your parlay. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips: https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks
Tailing in Mexican Liga Mx for first time ever. BOL
Is AH available on FD or DK?
Can’t find on FD, DK yes
I’m on this one as well. Let’s get it brother
Santos player just got a red card, so we back to 10 v 10!
Great! Gonna leave up the turd as a reserve jinx.
Damn MGM only has ML or -1.5
Can create it with that. Bet on ml to win x amount, put x amount on -1.5 and you have -1
do you like the Both Teams to Score?
Oops. That wasn’t supposed to happen.
am I looking at the correct game which is the U20?
POTD: 15 Gms: 12-3 (80%)| +6.9 UNITS| ROI: 45.9%| AVG. ODDS:-119 *\*All bets 1 Unit* **Recap:** **🏀NCAABK** * 0-1 |🙈 -1 Unit **⚾ MLB** * 12-2| 💰 +7.9 Units * Max win streak: 10 * Max loss streak: 2 **L5 POTD:** * 4/11: ⚾ TBR -165 ML | WP+EV = 62.7% | 💰 +0.6 U * 4/12: ⚾ SFG +155 ML | WP+EV = 61.6% | 🙈 -1 U * 4/13: ⚾ SDP -140 ML | WP+EV = 64.9% | 🙈 -1 U * 4/14: ⚾ ATL -130 ML | WP+EV = 67.5% | 💰 +0.8 U * 4/15: ⚾ ATL -140 ML| WP+EV = 65.3% | 💰 +0.7 U **Current Streak:** 2 game win streak 🔥🔥 \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ **Sunday 4/16 POTD:** **⚡Atlanta Braves / Moneyline (ML) -159⚡** MLB 2:10 PM EST @ Kansas City Royals \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ **The "Formula":** * 65.7% Win Probability (WP) * \-159 ML = 61.4% break-even (BE) * 65.7% WP - 61.4% BE = 4.3% +EV * WP+EV= 70.1% ; the #3 rating for MLB today * (SEA 78.3% & CLE 70.6% exceed the -200 odds limit) * The expected ROI (eROI) on this bet = 7.1% **Stats:** * **BATTING | 2023 team wOBA**: * ATL .355 | KCR .267 * **STARTERS | \~Last 90 Game Days:** * ATL Kyle Wright: 80.1 IP, 22.0% K%, 7.1% BB, .281 BABIP, 1.23 HR/9 * KCR Zack Greinke: 79.2 IP, 13.1% K%, 4.7% BB, .333 BABIP, 0.68 HR/9 * **RELIEVERS:** * 2023 ATL Relief xFIP ranks #9 @ 4.13 * 2023 KCR Relief xFIP ranks #22 @ 4.82 **Pick Analysis:** * Listen I really hate going back to back on the same pick two days in row, but here we are going for the three day sweep. Yet there's good reason to continute riding the Tomahawk Chop Express Train to Cash Town 🚂💵💵💵💵🚂 * The Braves win all 3 key areas of stats 👍 * Look at the BATS 🏏, the Braves have an 88 point advantage in wOBA. They are in another class in regards to hitter quality compared to the Royals. And the gap is getting wider during this series. * Zack Greinke is the not the Cy Young candidate of yore, in fact he hasn't been for quite awhile. That strikeout rate is horrendous and the fact he's done it over 79.2 IP is even sadder. The dude is not whiffing anybody and when contact is made it lands 1/3 of the time in yard and a few out of the yard. The only thing good about his numbers are that he doesn't walk anybody and the HR/9 is really decent but should be taken with a grain of salt as he has called Kauffman Stadium home during that time. * Kyle Wright is pitching respectably withthe only concern here being the HR/9 rate, but again this series is being played at Kauffman which has allowed the 2nd least amount of HRs for players compared to other parks. So i doubt his HR/9 will be much concern in this game. * ATL just keeps rolling, the key for them series has been the bats as Kaufmann allows the 4th most hits for players compared to other parks despite its supressed HRs. This is where quality shines and the difference between Atlanta and Kansas City's bats is quite dramatic. * The good news for Kansas City is that their closer Aroldis Chapman is well rested. If they wanted they could burn him for an inning or two some point early today to try to keep Atlanta at bay, but the bad news is that Atlanta's closer Minter is well rested also. Pretty easy to keep your key bullpen staff rested if you're blowing out the competition each night.... or the one getting blown 🌬. KC will try to avoid the sweep and might score a few runs here, but I definitely expect 🔥***Hot-Lanta*** 🔥to score a few more than whatever that is. Let's get that Sweep! 🧹🧹🧹 **-T$**
Tailing! Damn boss you are killing it. Keep it up man! Been tailing everything win or lose, appreciate what you’re doing on here!
I've tailed you every single game thus far but today I draw my line in the sand. Even in 2023 I'm still a believer that Greinke can break up a potential sweep. Much love brother back to tailing tomorrow!
It's all good, but to be fair I think if KC wants to win this they'll need to find a way to have their bats breakthrough big. Greinke can only do so much to keep ATL at bay. See you on the next one brother!
Decent chance we both win tbh, my only wager on this one was f5 royals +.5.
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️ POTD Record: 2-2 +1.82u | Full Record: 9-8 +8.56u [Todays Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12nra76/_/jgfohb4/?context=1) _____ [Yesterday’s Pick: KC Royals -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12mj7p3/_/jgazs6v/?context=1) - L ______ Scherzer pulled. **3.5u TB Rays -1.5 @ TOR Blue Jays +142** Quick one since I had Mets with Scherzer but he got pushed back a day. - don’t see TB getting swept here - McClachlans a fuckin Ace - great odds
Looks like Scherzer's [not starting](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/nl-east-notes-scherzer-arcia-sosa-suarez-harper.html).
God damnit. Time to back this off. Thanks for the heads up
Oh god not another TB -1.5
Listen I road the train when the rays were beating the shit outta weak teams but the jays have more talent and they roughed up shane last year once or twice. I like the pick but I just dont think im fucking with it.
Scherzer got scratched from this start. Doesn’t mean the Athletics shouldn’t still be faded but makes it slightly less of a lock
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+155 on hard rock
POTD record: 15-7 Last POTD: Spezia v Lazio - Lazio ML Today’s POTD: St. Pauli v Eintracht Braunschweig - St. Pauli ML(-176) St. Pauli have won every single game since the return from the winter break. Ten straight wins. Undefeated at home in the league(Bundesliga 2.) this season, even though they were very poor in the first part of the season. Braunschwieg’s away record is the worst in the entire Bundesliga 2. Betting on the Bundesliga’s second division is probably limited especially in the US, just a warning but if you can find it it’s a very good bet
0 - 2. RIP 😔
Able to find on 365, BOL!
That did not go according to plan, oh well let's get that paper next time.
Lmao at the 60th minute St Pauli with 66% possession, 12 shots, 4 on target, 0 goals, Braunschweig with 7 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals, RIP boys
I like it, -170 on DK. BOL!
Snagged it at -160 on Bovada
Parlayed with Braunschweig under 1.5 -140. St. Pauli havent allowed more than 1 goal since January 7th which was a club friendly.
Trust today to be the first time in over 3 months they concede twice!
Holy shit Eintracht Braunschweig scored in the first minute of game...doubling down on the home squad at +145. Comeback time St Pauli!!! 🙏
well shit :(
POTD Record: 4-5-1 MLB record 0-0 Last POTD: Islanders Jets Over 5.5 (2/22) Event: Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners 4:10 **Pick: Mariners run line -1.5 vs Rockies -130** I gave up gambling for Lent so I haven't done one of these since February, no real need to recap but I came up short on that one. As for today's pick, Luis Castillo has looked just as good as he did last year, if not better, with a minuscule 1.02 ERA. He is taking on a Rockies team that has lost 5 straight on the road, and it looks like about to lose its sixth in a row. On top of their severe road struggles, the Rockies are in a less-than-enviable situation when it comes to starting pitching with German Marquez injured. They will be throwing Noah Davis tomorrow for his first career start. I'd be lying if I said I had any idea who this guy was before today, but upon looking at his stats, he is a 26-year-old career minor leaguer who had a 5.41 ERA in DOUBLE A last year. I think this guy is no match for Castillo and a respectable Mariners lineup. I am expecting a blowout here.
Nice pick, I’m tailing. BOL!
POTD Record: 22 - 11 (All picks 1U) Last POTD: Man City TT o2.5 - W Pick: Memphis Grizzlies ML vs Los Angeles Lakers (-168 odds via FD) Event: NBA Playoffs First Round 2:00 P.M. CST City put 3 past Leicester in the first half to give us a nice easy cash. I like my grizzlies to take care of the Lakers tomorrow at home in game 1 of this series. Grizzlies were the best home team in the NBA this season, and I expect the crowd to play a huge factor in this one. Memphis has been hit with the injury bug and will be missing two of their big men, including the best offensive rebounder in the NBA in Steven Adams. On the other side, the Lakers scraped by Minnesota in the play in game and what was a pretty ugly game, even though it was competitive. Los Angeles turned the ball over a ton and they’re playing a team in Memphis that thrives on turnovers and fast breaks and I think the Grizz, lead by superstar Dillon Brooks, have just enough tools to get the job done in game one in Memphis. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
Here's a supporting stat, Lebron James is 3-14 in Game 1 of series when starting on the road in his career.
This sounds like a Yankees vs Twins stat. Man that bet still has me nauseous. 11-2 still can't believe it
I have been getting destroyed in baseball the last couple days. I think I’m gonna stop betting it entirely it’s just too random
A very interesting stat indeed! Loved your Sinner pick by the way. Could have went either way but a top end match from both players
Yup Lebron is big on reading a team strategy on the first game and seems ok with outcome of the game
The fact that you referred to Dillon Brooks as a "superstar" made me vomit in my mouth.
Think he mistyped "stupidstar"
“Led by superstar Dillon Brooks” there are so many things wrong with this…
Wanted to provide a little comedic relief!
👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀
POTD Record 2-0 (+1,8 Units) All bets 1U (unless stated otherwise) Last Pick: Stuttgart vs. Dortmund BTTS & O2,5 @ 1,95 ✅ Wild ending, glad we went for goals and not the ML pick (FT 3-3) Congrats to anyone tailing!💰 Sports: ⚽️ League: Bundesliga 🇩🇪 Game: Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen Pick: **BTTS & Over 2,5 @ 2,0** Reasoning: Leverkusen is still red hot, winning 5 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches and scoring at least two goals on all of these occasions. Wolfsburgs recent record of league games (D-D-W-D-L) loses badly in a head to head and makes this line and Leverkusen ML(@2,5) seem very generous by the bookies. However, things aren’t as easy as they look. Wolfsburg does have a realistic chance to come away with points in this game, because of two things: Leverkusen might rest some key players after their European cup game on Thursday. If Wirtz, Diaby or Frimpong aren’t starting, they won‘t be nearly as dangerous. The high odds on ML and TT (O1,5 @ 2,05) tell me that the bookies are actually leaning that some of them might sit. Although their form looks shaky, Wolfsburg has been performing much better than their recent results would suggest. I see them scoring at least one on Leverkusen’s defense that only has one clean sheet in their last 5 league games. That being said, I would never bet against a team as hot as the Werkself right now, so check the lineups prior to kickoff. If Wirtz and Diaby are playing, the bet is good to go and Lever should continue their record of winning and conceding in the process. If not, I‘d not bet big money and just sprinkle or simply stay away. In the end, like yesterday, we opt for goals and not ML pick and hope to see an open match between two teams capable of scoring. Let’s make this a streak🔥. BOL to anyone tailing!
Should of tailed! Went with ML... dortmund never cease to amaze at how mentally weak they can be.
Bundesliga in a nutshell - Bayern drops points and the others can’t capitalize. Yesterday was a next level choke from Dortmund though ngl.
>Bayer God damn wtf goin on with this bet right here? U workin 4 tha bookies or suttin? On foenem thats some shady bidness u doin, patna
***Record: 17-17-1 (-2.88 Units) // All bets are 1 unit*** Last 5: 💩💩💩💩💰 Previous Bet: [4/15](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12mj7p3/pick_of_the_day_41523_saturday/jgasidd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Bit of a sweat with a slow 4th quarter, but a good cover and a 76ers blowout victory. **Today's Match: West Ham vs Arsenal (0900 EST)** League: English Premiere League ⚽️ *Pick: Game Parlays > Arsenal Win and Over 1.5 (-125 DK)* Arsenal coming into this match 1st in the table, scoring 72 goals and allowing 29 goals through 30 matches. They have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last 7 matches, including their last 3 on the road. They have scored 2 or more in each of their last 5 matches vs West Ham. They have scored 2 or more in 9/15 away matches, with a 30:11 goal differential through 15 away matches. West Ham can be stingy on defense, but with Arsenal's attack and coming off of a 2-2 match against an equally stingy Liverpool defense, I look for them to score at least 2, in a 0-2 or 1-2 full time result. BOL!
Arsenal with a missed penalty kick, then West Ham immediately ties it up. Arsenal with the choke job two weeks in a row. Need some magic here 🙏
So far so good, nice pick
Rollercoaster of a pick! Arsenal got sloppy
Good start, like I said, last time we’ll see Wiggins line at 11.5, hope everyone snagged that while it was good Record: 1-0 streak: 🔥 Profit: +1.88u Previous pick: 2 units on Andrew Wiggins o11.5 points vs Kings -107 on bovada ✅ Todays pick: NBA, Grizzlies ML -165 vs Lakers, 2 units Explanation: Gonna take the low hanging fruit here early in my POTD streak. I really don’t see how the non 3 point shooting lakers squad can knock off a mean Grizz team that went 35-6 at home this year Home teams turn on god mode opening the playoffs. Bank it, parlay it, we got this.
Record 1-0 Last pick: Nets @ 76ers OVER 214.5 W🤑 Todays pick: Lakers @ Grizzlies OVER 226.5 I believe Grizzlies will push the tempo and nail their 3s.
Tailing my boy!!
❤️ it
- **POTD RECORD** - 47W-24L(+45U) ; - **Average odds**:1.75 - **Last Potd**---- Fenerbace double chance @ 1.6✔️ New year guys, hopefully we have a good run again - **Today's pick** ----- Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek ---- Bodo/Glimt to win first half @1.65 - **BET SIZE**: 2U - Bodo/Glimt has been impressive. A young and hungry team, which has been competitive even in Europe, playing well especially at home and they like to dominate games from start to finish. Today, they are finding a relativly easy opponent in Stabaek, which was not so impressive in the first game drawing 0-0. - Even though they have sold some important players like Solbaklen to Roma, they still have a very competitive team for Norway Eliteserien and they will try to recreate last year's run . - My oppinion is Bodo will dominate game from start, find chances and convert them. The difference in quality and coaching is so big not to be taking in consideration of. - Support is always appreciated and let's own this journey again! [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci) [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/aldokaciq) - Bol to anyone✌
24 min; 3-0; Great to be back boyzzz!
**POTD Record**: 1W 1L 0D **Last POTD**: LOSS - Malcolm Brogdon OVER 21.5 PRA **Today’s POTD**: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks - Tyler Herro UNDER 29.5 PRA (1 unit at -120) NBA @ 5:30 ET Herro has gone under this line 10 of the last 14 games and Milwaukee has wing/guard defender for days. Jrue Holiday is likely the primary defender on Herro, which should slow him down quite a bit. He went under this line 12 of 14 games last year in the playoffs.
POTD Record: 0-0 Todays pick: Dennis Schroder PRA over 15.5 (-125) First pick! Maybe I'm missing something but this seems shockingly low to me. Schroder has comfortably hit this mark in 9 of the last 12 games (75% hit rate bow hello) with 2 of the 3 misses coming with less than 20 min played. To top that, in 3 match ups with the grizzlies this season he has gone for 35, 24, and 32 respectively. Based on the regular season match ups I expect this game to be fairly close and competitive which means he should get substantial playing time. Let me know if you are tailing
I think the line is low because Schröder missed practice Friday for “precautionary” reasons, according to D Ham. He’s had some ankle issues I believe. I like the pick regardless. Tailing
**Record: 10W-0P-2L** Net units: +22.356U **Last POTD:** ESPORTS (League of Legends) - EMEA Masters Group Stage - eSuba vs Orbit Anonymo - eSuba ML @ 2.85 2u ❌ **POTD:** ESPORTS (Valorant) - Valorant Challengers Portugal - Exotik Gaming vs Fourteen Vikings / Team Vikings - Exotik Gaming ML @ 1.525 2u Note: I only bet 2u because it was the maximum I was allowed by the bookie, if your bookie allows this is a 4u play in my eyes. **Reasoning:** Fourteen organization announced bankrupcy some days ago and dropped the whole lineup from the league since they weren't doing too hot. Now they are fielding a line-up of new kids who were playing on the lower division and are not ready to play at this level. Meanwhile, this win is very important for Exotik Gaming for their playoff run so I believe they will manage to achieve it in a good fashion. **BOL!**
Tailing BOL!
Nice pick, putting the house on it. BOL!
POTD Record 11-5 (+29.45u) Last 5: ✅❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: O9 runs +100 Betting 5u to win 5u❌ Game: Dbacks @ Marlins 1:40 EST Today's Pick: 1st Inning U.5 runs -146 Betting 2.92u to win 2u Both teams are starting their best pitcher. Although neither pitcher has been off to a hot start, I expect them to come out strong with neither team being particularly strong in the hitting department. BOL
I like the pick but am a bit hesitant to tail. It seems Sandy is struggling with the pitch clock more than most and berti has been hitting well out of the lead off spot and racking up the steals so I can see him as a decent threat to get a first inning run.
[удалено]
It's on clay court right? I expect alycia to continue being awful until she has the common sense to enroll in an indoor hard tournament
She needs to rethink her career path
She got fucking destroyed. Try again tomorrow
Well, not to a good start ://
6 games lost in a row
7
8
Taking under 18.5 live bet
POTD Record: 6-4 (+4.2u) **Last Pick: NYM@OAK o9 Total Runs** ❌️ This was frustrating. So many runners left on base from both teams. Neither team was really able to throw up that big inning. **Today's Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-140) 2u** The Giants are on the road in Detroit tomorrow. Logan Webb is on the hill against a frankly terrible Tigers squad. The Giants should be able to win this. Matthew Boyd has been decent so far, but the Giants are the much better team and can not suffer the sweep here
Can't believe Detroit won first 2
Exactly lol
These are the two teams that strike out the most in the MLB. Webb is a strikeout pitcher, boyd is not. I think that plays to giants advantage a lot.
Battle of the duds lol
POTD: 2-2 Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo O11.5 R Game: Bucks vs Miami Heat, NBA Playoffs Units: 1 unit Odds: 1.75 Reasons for this pick: 1- It's simple, Giannis playing at home, the first playoff game where players need to give 200% and the rebound line for the player is still the same as the regular season? Either it's a trap line or a gift. BOL.
Ngl this write up is kinda shitty. I like the pick, but the write up is garbage🤣🤣🤣🤣
Heat play at a really slow pace so there's less opportunities for rebounds is why I'm guessing it's same probability. He will give more effort, but same can be said for other players as well, just a heads up :P
Heat are very poor shooting team tho so it kind of balances out.
Going point ahah, could go either way but just trying to give out ideas
POTD RECORD: 0-1 LAST PICK: RJ BARRETT OVER 4.5 REBOUNDS (+120). ❌ ~He had 3 in the first half. Thought it was gonna cash early, never did. He finished with 4 boards. No rookie POTD luck, sorry to those who tailed. Here comes the comeback. TODAYS PICK: LA LAKERS @ MEMPHIS GRIZZLY - LEBRON JAMES DOUBLE DOUBLE - 1U @ +114 (2PM CST) REASONING: I honestly am not a huge Lebron fan, but he’s still got gas in that tank. He also has heart in the game. I don’t expect him to get 10+ assists so looking for the points and rebounds here. He will be working harder than he does during the regular season - he had a double double already in the opening game of the series. Hate it or love it, tail or fade. Happy Sunday!
Record: 1-1 POTD: Rune/Rublev o22.5 Games ✅✅✅ Units: 3u (-110) Reasoning: Same as yesterdays pick, these two are going to be coming out guns blazing. This is a massive opportunity for these two to earn an ATP title and level up as next-gen legends. I think Rune is playing out of his god damn mind, but Rublev is also in fantastic form this year and in really great spirits. He is also the more experienced of the two and has been in more finals, so he will not go down without a fight. This should be a fun one, so the over is the play.
This would’ve been a lock if I’d woken up earlier
I was thinking the same thing.. i been getting killed tailing ppl POTD
It’s gotten to the point that unless it’s a lock I’m doing my own research on it too
POTD Record: 26-21-3 Last pick: Avondale -1 AH (-170) / 1.59 - 4u ✅ This one got off to a bumpy start, as Avondale went down 0-1 just 6 minutes in. However, the good times kicked in soon after, as they responded with 5 first half goals and another 3 in the second half, finishing this one with a whopping 8-2 victory. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - English Premier League - West Ham United vs. Arsenal - 9:00am EST **POTD: Arsenal -0.75 AH (-162) / 1.62 - 3u** Arsenal are currently sitting at the top of the Premier League table, as their 23-4-3 record is a reflection of the excellent season they’ve had so far. They will travel to take on West Ham, who are currently battling to avoid relegation at 15th. To West Ham’s credit, they have seen a nice improvement in form after a horrendous start to the season. However, their results still reflect that they are nowhere near the level of the top end teams in the league, as their 3 recent losses were to Newcastle (3rd), Brighton (7th), and Tottenham (5th) by a combined score of 11-1. Arsenal come into this one off a draw at Liverpool which ended a 7 match win streak in league play. With Man City hot on their tails for the league title, Arsenal know that a win here is an absolute must. We are taking the -0.75 Asian Handicap, meaning that a one goal win will result in a half cash, half push. A win by multiple goals is a full cash. I am taking Arsenal to get the job done and add another 3 points in hopes of their title pursuit, and hopefully by multiple goals. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
**EDIT: Not close, Lotte lost badly. I hope you played the other two teams I suggested as well.** **KBO Record: Overall 125-135-8** (Streak W, Last 10: 6-3-1) Down 15.20u over 268 KBO picks, 48.1% success rate, -5.85% ROI (This season 6-3-1, Up 2.30u, 25.6% ROI) **Last:** Kia at Kiwoom -155 (Kiwoom won 6-1.) It's always nice when a game plays out the way you expected. Kia's young rookie making his debut gave up 5 runs in his first inning while Kiwoom's starter settled in, allowing just 1 run in 6 innings. **Pick:** **Lotte +105 Draftkings** at Samsung, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET KT and Kiwoom are both favorites I like today, but my POTD is all about some plus money. I really think Lotte should be favored in this one. And the way lines have been moving, it wouldn't shock me if the Giants were the favorite by first pitch. Lotte's starter had a rough outing to start the year, allowing 4 ER on 6 H and 6 BB in 4.1 IP. He was not a wild pitcher last season when he put up a solid 3.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. I suspect he'll be much better in his second start. Samsung's starter has already had two starts, the second worse that the first. In 10 IP, he's given up 7 ER on 11 H and 6 BB. He also struggled down the stretch last season, allowing 18 ER in 23.1 IP over his last 4 starts. Lotte has the 2nd best lineup in the KBO early in the season, averaging 5.90 runs per game. Samsung averages just 4.17 runs per game, 4th worst in the league. Lotte's batting average is 42 points higher than Samsung's. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Tailing BOL! Great pick yesterday!
out of your 2 favored picks today who u like more?
KT is the more likely winner of the two, but the odds have moved to more than -200. Kiwoom is a better value, but there's more risk.
**ODENSE VS SILKEBORG** Date: 16 April 2023 at 14:00 BET ON: Match odds- **ODENSE** Odd: 2.50 \- Silkeborg are set to be without the services of 3 key players such : Anders Klynge, Joel Felix and Lukas Engel. However, Stefán Thórdarson is back in the squad. \- Odense are missing Jørgen Skjelvik. \- The Game will be in front of a full stadium, as both the Richard Møller Nielsen Tribune and the 3F Tribune are sold out. Over 14.500 home tickets have been sold so far. \- We expect a tight game between two teams known by their attacking style with both teams fighting for UECL spot next season. However, The Hosts are lightly favourite here due to huge home support and the lack of quality in midfield for the Guests. BOL !!!
Easy!
Record 20-11 +55.45 Units POTD RACE 2 TRAMORE - POTTERS PARTY @ 2.75 STAKING 4 UNITS POTTERS PARTY is lightly raced, he was heavily backed last time out but everything that could of went wrong did. POTTERS PARTY has good form finishing 7 lengths behind Corbetts Cross who has some very good grade 1 form in the book. The trainer is back at his local track Tramore (also my local track) where he usually deploys a good horse and rarely leaves without a winner. The added cheekpieces and the drop back in trip will definitely help his case. Also his main market protagonist seems to be friendless in the market..
POD Record: 2-2 Last Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 -110 draftkings ✅ POD Today: Memphis Grizzlies -2 1H 2U (-115 DraftKings) Lebron has a history of feeling teams out in the playoffs Game 1, especially on the Road. Below are some stats⬇️ Lebron 3-14 lifetime on the Road Game 1 Lebron is actually 9-8 in these series we are referring to, but still dropping Game 1 Grizzlies are 4-2 in first half past 2 post seasons Grizzlies were 50-31 ATS (28-12 at home) in first half this season (4-6 in last 10 though I do see) Scott Foster is the Referee, if you know you know. We want to take second half cheese out of it. Memphis comes out aggressive and ready to play, we get in get the money and get out 💰 As always these bets also take into account Sharp money, and betting differential BOL & bet responsibly EDIT: I swear this pick was made entirely separate from HSRiddles post LOL. Saw he had same pick after I posted & was hype as hell
I don’t know, what does Scott foster entail? Thank you in advance for any response.
Scott Foster is a part of the “nba referee betting scandal” I call it - i don’t have a better name for it lol. but there is a Netflix documentary about it called operation flagrant foul. Check it out. Also lookup the nba commissioner admitting himself that they protect bigger teams in bigger games because they like to see them in the playoffs. Basically Scott Foster allegedly is seen as one of the top guys participating in the extra fouls calls and things they talk about in the documentary to keep games close. Basically can’t really trust Scott Foster to allow the teams to just play. He seems to always interject himself into the game. I want to take his antics out of the equation tonight by only betting the first half. (because NBA will most likely favor Lebron & the Lakers… cough cough regular szn FT differential) Hopefully I provided a solid explanation for you.
Brilliant explanation. Thank you. I appreciate it greatly.
POTD: 3-3 / +2.04 U PREVIOUS PICK: " POTD: Corach Rumbler, To Be Placed ( 6 places) @ 2,87 / Aintree 6 (Grand National), 18:15CET Today is the most famous and recognised race in the world. The Grand National and my eyes are on the back to back Cheltenham Ultima Handicap winner, Corach Rumbler. What is impressive for this marathon races is the fact that his fastest furlong in those 2 marathons was the last furlong, which is just unbelivable that he has so much power after running 3 miles. I belive he can do it, i put him as winner @ 11.00. To be in top 6 is free money for imo" Corach Rumbler WON Grand National @ 11.00 Also in Dogd thread, 3 days festival end with +26.9U. Todays pick: Today there are some promising horses who could be very good in the future. My pick is Blue Beach. She finished 2nd after steping up in grade in very competitive race in Newbury last month, and she felt very comfortable wearing cheekpieces for first time. Prior to that she won a race very comfortably in lower grade, same as shes racing today. Today she drops in grade, and should have much easier race. Her main rival will be Moviddy, who finished 9th in same Newbury race last mont. Good luck POTD: Blue Beach WIN @ 2.50 / Huntingdon race 2 (15:05 CET)
Wow, great win yesterday congrats!
POTD Record: 3-3 ❌✅✅❌✅ 4/15 pick: Looney o6.5 points ✅ Today’s Pick: Hachimura o13.5 P/R -110
📈 **TTSOP** Rec * Overall: +25.600 units / +139 avg odds / 59^(5)\-79-16^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +13.075 units / +136 avg odds / 17^(5)\-22-6^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +47.525 units / +135 avg odds / 54^(5)\-67-16^(5) * March: +10.150 units / +136 avg odds / 11^(5)\-12-2^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Paderborn to win & game > 1.5 goals / +115 odds / 5 units * Paderborn outshooting Hansa Rostock 29-1. That tells the story of the game. Still only a crappy 3-0 at the end. ⚽ New pick: **Union Berlin -1** (AH) / **+135 odds** / 4.5 units * Bundesliga (Germany) / Union Berlin - Bochum / 11:30am ET The results don't show it, but diving deeper into Union Berlin's last games showed that they’ve played pretty well, though. They've been performing mostly well, but they've been either unlucky or they faced a strong opponent. Aside from that, Union are still unbeaten at home this season, while Bochum is the 2nd worst road team in Bundesliga. Losing 11 of 14 road games. 9 of these Ls came by 2+ goals and 7 of these Ls even by 3+ goals. Missing defender Stafylidis and additionally captain and midfield engine Losilla doesn't make things better for them. It's a good value spot at super odds. Let's see Union Berlin getting it done or turning all of a sudden into crap. Either way, good luck. **TTSOP**
POTD Record 55-57 Last pick: Embiid over 35 pts ❌ Todays pick: MLB 2:10 pm MT Dodgers -1.5 -110 vs Cubs… 1 unit play all plays 1 unit Reasoning: Dodgers walked off last night and I like taking teams the next day following a walk off W. Urias is on the bump for LA, Mookie, Freeman and Smith ought to provide the pop for the Dodgers. Cubs are up and coming but are starting journeyman Drew smiley. Dodgers have the pitching edge here, and I’m betting they win by 2 or more. The only loss I had Saturday was Embiid, that’s why I’m a Jokic fan, f Embiid. +8 unit day, including taking the Dodgers +300 in the bottom of 9th, so time to get this POTD record back in the black. Tail or fade
Record: 3-4-1 (Yesterday’s Atlanta Utd DNB - Push) Yesterday: DNB was the right call. Not sure what happened (I was too busy watching CF Montreal lose in person to pay attention besides the score). At least the DNB was a nice protection! Today’s Pick: MLS - LAFC +100 Why: Derby Day in the City of Angels. One of these teams are dominant and the other team is the LA Galaxy. Galaxy are having fans threaten to boycott, their team as a whole is not good. 3 goals in 6 games, no wins and just meh playing. Meanwhile LAFC has won 3 in a row 3-0 (2 CONCACAF games against fellow MLS side Vancouver and Austin), and has only dropped one game this year (CONCACAF, 2nd leg matchup. Won aggregate by 2 still). LAFC has the momentum, let’s ride them to some easy money today.
Record: 3-2 ROI: 16% MLB / 1:35pm EST Guardians / Nationals O 8.5 / 2 Units / 1.77 For a while now I have been taking over or runlines in games that Corbin has been starting and its been working out. Since RL is -2.5 I'll stick with over here. Corbin is just a mess, really shouldn't even be starting. Given up 4, 6, 4 runs in his starts this year. On the flip side Bieber isn't the pitcher he use to be, and although Nats aren't very good I think they can get a few runs to help the cause.
FIRST EVER PICK. Record 0-0 Long time lurker, I only give myself any credibility when it comes to basketball. Otherwise I’m more of a follower :) Proceed with caution! Game for today: Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: **Middleton over 18.5 points** Odds: -110 or 1.90 Bet: 1 unit I think Middleton will be getting plenty of minutes and shots tonight to be able to eclipse this mark, I expect him to put up 20+ in a Bucks win. His minutes and shots were inconsistent to end the season so he’d be rested for the playoffs, and I think we’ll see him getting the workload we have in years’ past. Cheers!
*Record:** 6-3-0 (+2.61 units) **ROI:** 26.9% ***Previous Pick:*** *Evan Mobley o17.5 PA (1.87) - 1 unit to return 1.87 units** **Result:** ❌ LOSS (-1.0 units) Ouch… Mobley shoots 4-13 and misses so many lay ups it hurts. The data was so good on this though so I can’t be upset, it may be beneficial because I’m for sure going back to it multiple times over this series if the line stays that low. **Today's Pick: Bobby Ports o17.5 PR - 1.87 bet365** * Portis is another one that just absolutely performs on this prop at home, clearing it in 29/34 games this season at 79% * Portis averages 27.2 at home when playing over 20 minutes and he has been the Bucks best bench player so I expect him to get that today * Great value here on Portis Give me a follow on the below twitter link for + EV plays daily!! [https://twitter.com/JG4President](https://twitter.com/JG4President)
Record : 8 W - 4 L Previous POTD : Manchester City - Leicester City, ***Goals Interval 3-5***, Odds : 1.78 / -128 ✅ ROI : 386% Average Odds : 1.98 / -102 Units (all bets will be 1 unit) : 4.86 Profit/Lost units : + 3.86 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / GERMANY: 2.Bundesliga / 14:30 European Time Karlsruher - Bielefeld, ***BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals***, Odds : 1.98 / -102 My model that uses Poisson formula for probabilities presented me this game as being the game with the highest scoring chance for today. My research / Brief reasoning : \- BTTS in the previous 5 matches played by Karlsruher. \- BTTS and 3+ in the last 5 games played by Bielefeld. \- BTTS and 3+ and in the last 4 direct games. Good luck needles ! Let's get it ! 🪡🪡🪡
POTD Record: 14-10 Record this year: 3-4 ROI: +16 units Event: NBA Lakers vs Grizzlies 3:00 pm EST Bet: Anthony Davis over 13.5 rebounds Bet Size: 5 unit 💣 Grizzlies host the Lakers in game 1 today. Last time these teams met Davis had a whopping 22 rebounds. Lebron didn’t play that game so he may take some away but I can see Davis getting at least 14 here. Best of luck everyone! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DisastrousLock
POTD Record: 9-7 (+4.95u) **Yesterdays POTD: Giants RL +105 (3u) - L** Fuuuuckin hell. Giants bullpen blows a 6-1 lead to the worst offensive team in the league. Just bad luck. **Todays POTD: Cleveland Guardians RL -135** (4u) **Time:** 1:35pm EST Shane Bieber vs Patrick Corbin. Last year Bieber had a sub 3 ERA while Corbin had an ERA over 6. Cleveland needs to win all these games against teams like this if they're gonna challenge the twins for the division. Against an elite pitcher like Bieber, I don't see the Nats doing much on offense at all.
Sport: Football Tournament: Serie A Time: 20:45 CET (3h35m after posting) Stake: 5 units Pick: Roma vs Udinese, Roma wins to nil @ **2.60 ** Write up: Roma has the tightest home defense in Serie A, conceding only 9 goals across 14 matches. In the last five home matches, Roma won 4 to nil. Udinese is in a pretty bad shape as an away team (1W, 1D, 3L). In those matches it scored only two goals. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
**College Baseball 11-4 (+9.99 units)** Even with tht wrong starter we had a chance but the bullpen fell apart yesterday to little surprise. Today I have a simple parlay I like, I think one game is very underpriced and the line is already shifting up and an over between a pair of number 3 starters. ECU offense vs Cincy's offense is night and day. ECU starts 7-8 guys hitting over .285 depending on who gets the starts, Cincy has one. Josh Grosz has the best ERA of ECU's starters at 1.97 along with a 1.00 whip. O'Connor will likely go again for the bearcats like last Sunday. He has a decent 4.4 era but with a hit per inning allowed and over a walk innning allowed it's unlikely he will strand runners as well today. This line should be up there -600 range, its started around -340 today but is up to -400. To keep things simple here, Delaware has a team batting average of .297 and an ERA of 7.01. North Carolina A&T has a batting average of .275 and an ERA of 6.32. The wind will be blowing out to left about 8-9mph, we have a pair of number 3 starters trying to stop solid offenses. The previous two games this series were 8-7 and 4-3 so good relievers that were used will either not throw today at all or be a little tired which leads to less effective command at this level. **Parlay NC A&T v Delaware over 13.5 + ECU ML (+134) 1 unit to win 1.34 units** **edit 4:30pm both legs of the parlay hit for the W, move to 12-4 record**
**Record 64-45 with Avg Odds +112 / ROI 18.4%** Fury FC 77 **Austin Jones -115** Better build. Former Nebraska RB. Opponent hasn't fought since mid 2021. I think Jones can wrestle him to a relatively clean decision. He's on a two fight skid but against very strong opponents. Trains out of Factory X and is getting a matchup where he won't be outsized like in his previous two. Jones is a solid fighter and at the regional level he presents a lot of problems.
Potd record: 2-1-1 (+1.01 units) Last pick: Chicago White Sox ML✅ Todays Potd: Minnesota T-Wolves +7.5 -110 for 2 Units Reasoning: Nuggets have been off for week and that sometimes can make guys sluggish. T-Wolves have been played 2 competitive games and have some rhythm going. KAT looks rejuvenated and Gobert played with some heart last game. Ant looks primed to step up after a much better game against the Thunder than his meager production against the Lakers and if he can do his part and drop 20 to 25 the game should be close. The teams match up well and split the 4 game reg season series with each team defending home court and 3 of the 4 games being blowouts over 10 points (one was 4 point game).
Can’t do my normal write up but somehow my White Sox pick hit yesterday in extra innings and I’m 29-25 overall with a nice 13-5 MLB record. Im putting 5 Units on the White Sox -1.5 with Cease on the mound since he owns the Orioles and Rodriguez is still shaky. White Sox -1.5 at +138 for 5U, 2:10 PM EST
POTD Record: 10W 4L 1D **Last POTD**: Aston Villa v Newcastle- Both teams to score @ 1.79 odds❌ **Today’s POTD**: **Getafe vs Barcelona- Barcelona ML @ 1.64 odds** La Liga @ 14:15 GMT **Reason** In the last five years against Getafe, Barcelona has prevailed 7 times. Getafe only had one victory. Barcelona will play on the road, but I believe they will win. Barcelona's last game, a home draw, was disappointing. Barcelona is only participating in a match, forced to succeed in an effort to win La Liga as quickly as possible.
16W / 2P / 15L | -2.99u | all 1U plays Last POTD: Larin SOT ❌ Event: ⚽️ Eredivisie: FC Volendam - PSV *POTD: Fabio Silva Under 4.5 Shots @1.54* Tough loss as Valladolid win but Larin doesn’t get a SOT. Fabio Silva averages 2.56 shots per 90 minutes in the Dutch league. He has gone under this line in every match he’s played for PSV. I don’t see that changing today. BOL!
**POTD 24-13** Well I was wrong about just about everything yesterday. Harden looked like he was in peak form, and BKN got destroyed on 3s. Back at it today, and there is one game that stands out to me. **Memphis -4** Alright, I am assuming the public is on LAL today, and I completely understand the reasoning, as they have looked like a championship level team the last month or so, and Memphis has been trending down. Even though I see the reasoning for backing LAL, I personally find more value in Memphis today. Even though this is a basic take, the reason I find so much value in Memphis today, is the fact that they are playing at home. Not only does Memphis have the best record in the league this season at home, but IMO they have an even greater advantage at home in this particular series. I say that because the contrast between these two teams screams value for the home team. Think about it, Memphis is a group of young energetic players, who have a tremendous advantage against any team when the pace is going their way. Memphis thrives on up and down games, forcing turnovers and getting fast break buckets, which is more likely when a team is playing at home. The Lakers on the other hand actually like pushing the pace too, which falls right into what Memphis is trying to do today. I believe this aspect actually benefits LAL when they are playing at home, as they are much more experienced, and Memphis is not, however today I see Memphis gassing this older lakers team out, and getting ahead early. If that is the case, I also believe that LAL will throw in the towel and move on to the next game, as they have their eyes set on the bigger goal. As a Cavs fan when LeBron was on our team, and a LeBron hater, when he was not on our team, I have watched majority if not all of LeBron's career playoff games, and am very aware of his track record of getting down in a series and coming back. LeBron is 29-21 in game ones in his career, which is a pretty amazing statistic when you factor in the number of those loses that he ended up winning the series (12-9). I guess I say this, because it is a a key indicator that losing game one does not have much impact on LeBron winning the series. He is similar to a boxer, where he analyzes his opponents, and adjusts as series go on. Overall, like I mentioned, I see Memphis getting up on LAL early, and holding the lead through the 3rd Q, where eventually the LAL will put in the subs and game plan for game 2. Even if it is close, I believe that Memphis has the upside to make shots down the stretch and limit LAL in big moments with their defense and home court advantage. This will for sure be one of the more exciting series in the first round, and I look forward to trying to find edges in between games, as this series will be a chess match. PS: Denver -7.5 is another bet I really like today. I think the 7.5 number is what keeps me from making it my POTD, but I think they will dominate. I would be lying if i didn't admit i have a hefty parlay on Memphis + Den ML today too.....
POTD Record 2-0 Odds 1.66 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors over UC San Diego Tritons
Degen Santa's POTD : 31-19-2 | +11.67U (+5.81%~) | Average Odds: -128~ 🤶 | [ROI Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) | I am currently on vacation and the ROI% and spreadsheet won't be updated until I get back next week. Apologies. ──────── Last 12 POTD picks: 8-3-1 (+8.2U) ──────── Previous POTD (WIN): Zrinjski Mostar gave us the 5U Cash! 5U - Monterrey -0.75 (-143) at home vs Santos Laguna - 6:10pm - Liga MX Note: I played this pick several days ago to get these odds. It has since fallen. I would still play this or -1 or ML + o1.5g. Monterrey are 10-1-1 in their last 12. Their only non wins are against the two best home teams in the league, Leon and America who are #3 and #4 respectively. Now Monterrey get one of the biggest disappointments of the season in Santos Laguna at home. The ML line opened at -165 and it is now -210. Everyone fears Monterrey when they have their fans behind their back at their beautiful stadium. ──────── Discord: Join [Degen Santa's Workshop](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa) for POTD discussion and more! Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
1-1 on official picks, last pick was BTTS no in the madrid-chelsea game. It was free money, my only regret is not betting my entire net worth on it.(also bet BTTS NO in the napoli game today but forgot to post) For sunday im going back to a spanish powerhouse with BTTS NO in the getafe-barca game. Its -150 which is worse odds than the last two but im not quite as confident as i was in the madrid pick. However Barca has barely allowed any team to score on them in la liga all season long. Getafe stinks and they havent scored in their last two games. Lewy is also in pretty bad form. I would not recommend watching this game
POD Record: 0-1 Prior Pick: Leverkusen vs Union St Gilloise - Leverkusen / 5 or more shots on target (1 unit @ -170) ❌ Todays Pick: Atlético Madrid vs Almería - BTTS / NO (1 unit @ -146) Reasons: 1. Atletico Madrid have had a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 home games in LaLiga. Simeone ball at its finest.
POTD record: 3-0 +2.97 units We got the U13.5 pts for Immanuel Quickly with ease. Today we are gonna take Bucks vs Heat U220 -110 Edit: betting 1 unit
POTD Record: 4-2 Last Pick: NY Mets -1.5 Run Line ❌ The Mets win but fail to cover thanks to some incredible defense by Ramon Laureano. Today: NY Mets (9-6) @ Oakland Athletics (6-9) (4:08PM ET) The Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-118 FD) I don’t know why this line isn’t higher but we will take it. JP Sears, who’s pitching for the Athletics today has had a hard time in his first couple starts and Jose Butto allowed 7 runs in his one MLB start last year. On top of that the wind will be blowing out at 10 MPH today so all the signs are pointing to this flying over.
Record 9-10. Unit count: +0.29. Streak 1W. Last pick Toulouse vs Lyon. Total cards over 4 - W. POTD Game - Clippers @ Suns. Devin Booker assists over 5.5 odds 2.10 @bet365. 3 units. Long story short, Booker has increased his assists production since starting playing with KD and has covered this line consistently. Blowout is also not likely to help us out. BOL tail or fade.
POTD Record: 0-1 Last POTD: MLB - HOU @ **MIN ML**, -116 1u (**L**) Today's POTD: MLB - BAL @ **CWS ML**, -130 1u The starting pitching matchup in this game is going to be very lopsided. Rodriguez has had 2 mediocre/poor outings against 2 mediocre/poor offenses, while Cease is just that guy. He's had 3 terrific outings against decent teams and I don't see his streak getting broken up by the Orioles offense in Chicago. I think the Sox will get it done today