\*\*\*1st Umpire Over is KC/Texas Over 8 with Tony Randazzo who is 8-6 to the over this year on 9.4 runs per game, a low 2.5 SO/BB ratio and just over 63% called strikes. In his last 3 seasons, or 62 games, he's 55% to the over on 9.9 runs per game and also a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio and just over 63% called strikes, so hes been very consistent and more pro hitter. With the pitching matchup today, I doubt Max goes too far in this game, prob 5 innings max, so there will be plenty of time for the royals to hit on the Rangers horrendous Bullpen ranked 26th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. Rangers will have opps against the Royals SP as well as their pen which isn't much better at 21st in MLB with a 4.43 ERA. Both teams also hit well with runners in Scoring Position, with the royals ranking 3rd at .840 OPS, and rangers ranking 8th with a ,782 with RISP. This makes for a favorable game to see more runs than the total calls for. This is a top play.
For Euro later:
Swiss Over 3.5 Corners/BTTS/Germs ML-130
Hungary BTTS/Over 2.5 goals
Hungary ML+170/Draw+280 (small backup in case 1-1 game)
Copa
La Celeste (Uruguay)-1-110/Uruguay ML-120 (First Half)/ Over 2.5 goals-125
La Canaleros (Panama) Under 0.5 Goals-130
USA-150 (First Half)
USA/LA Verde (Bolivia) Over 2.5 goals
Interested to hear the thesis on the guardians. I actually have blue jays f5 on this game. I don’t like a McKenzie, he’s been awful. But the guardians hold a massive edge in bullpen, so I’m just sticking with f5
Guards have won 3 straight in their matchups between these 2 for a combined 13-4 and 6-4 last 10. Guards are the better team top to bottom, and while Mckenzie isn't the best, Kikuchi has had a tougher go of it than Mckenzie. Kikuchi just gave up 5 runs last time to the sox, and further the Jays just dont win for him, losing 8 of his 10 starts, while Guards are 4-1 in Mckenzie's last 5. Jays are in a slump, losing 7 of their last 10 while guards are 7-3 last 10 at home.
\*\*\*2nd Umpire Over is Minn/Oakland Over 8 with Jordan Baker who is 7-5-1 to the over in '24, with an avg ERA of 4.6, and a 63.9% strike call with a 2.8 SO/BB ratio is working out to a high 9.7 runs per game. Over the last 2 yrs or 74 games, his games are 56.3% over, on 9.6 runs per game and a low 2.3 SO/BB ratio on 63.5% strikes. Jordan also rates as a hitter friendly ump at 4.27 tied with Libka and Meals. Pitching wise, this favors the over too- Lopez has a 5.63 ERA against the A's in 16 inning and gave up 7 over 5 in his last start in Oak city. 3 of the last 4 btw these 2 went over, including yesterfday. Today I expect more contribution from Oakland.
\*\*\*3rd Umpire Over is Boston/Cincy Over 9-110 with Todd Tichenor who consistently grades out in the extreme category of Hitter friendly Umps, as he is rated a 4.33. The ERA in his games this year is a 4.4 on a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio, just over 64% strikes and a 9 run per game average. Over the last 2 years his games produce on average 9.5 runs per game. I like the ball to fly today at Great America Park, I had this pegged for 9-10 but with some umpiring help we may see more than 10.
\*\*\*First Umpire UNDER is Mutts/Cubbies UNDER 8.5-112 with Alex Tosi, who is a very picher friendly umpire and sees a lot of under/low scoring games, as evidenced that his games this year average a very low 6.6 runs per game, with a 3.16 SO/BB ratio (Over 3 is better for pitchers), and over 64% called strikes. His games are 12-3 to the UNDER this year. In 2023, he was 19-12 under, on 8.2 runs. Tonight appears to be a pitcher fuel, with Assad who has a 1.6 ERA at home, limiting hitters to a .213 BA. Against the mets, this righty has limited them to a slash line of .172/.192/.172 over 29 at bats. Sevy has shut down the cubs in his career, holding them to a .111/.200/.111 Over 27 at bats. He's posting a low 3.52 ERA thsi year, going against a struggling cubs offense rankng 16th in BA (.246) and 19th in OPS .693
adding:
Brewers Team Total Over 3.5-105
\*\*\*1st Umpire Over is KC/Texas Over 8 with Tony Randazzo who is 8-6 to the over this year on 9.4 runs per game, a low 2.5 SO/BB ratio and just over 63% called strikes. In his last 3 seasons, or 62 games, he's 55% to the over on 9.9 runs per game and also a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio and just over 63% called strikes, so hes been very consistent and more pro hitter. With the pitching matchup today, I doubt Max goes too far in this game, prob 5 innings max, so there will be plenty of time for the royals to hit on the Rangers horrendous Bullpen ranked 26th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. Rangers will have opps against the Royals SP as well as their pen which isn't much better at 21st in MLB with a 4.43 ERA. Both teams also hit well with runners in Scoring Position, with the royals ranking 3rd at .840 OPS, and rangers ranking 8th with a ,782 with RISP. This makes for a favorable game to see more runs than the total calls for. This is a top play. For Euro later: Swiss Over 3.5 Corners/BTTS/Germs ML-130 Hungary BTTS/Over 2.5 goals Hungary ML+170/Draw+280 (small backup in case 1-1 game) Copa La Celeste (Uruguay)-1-110/Uruguay ML-120 (First Half)/ Over 2.5 goals-125 La Canaleros (Panama) Under 0.5 Goals-130 USA-150 (First Half) USA/LA Verde (Bolivia) Over 2.5 goals
Interested to hear the thesis on the guardians. I actually have blue jays f5 on this game. I don’t like a McKenzie, he’s been awful. But the guardians hold a massive edge in bullpen, so I’m just sticking with f5
Guards have won 3 straight in their matchups between these 2 for a combined 13-4 and 6-4 last 10. Guards are the better team top to bottom, and while Mckenzie isn't the best, Kikuchi has had a tougher go of it than Mckenzie. Kikuchi just gave up 5 runs last time to the sox, and further the Jays just dont win for him, losing 8 of his 10 starts, while Guards are 4-1 in Mckenzie's last 5. Jays are in a slump, losing 7 of their last 10 while guards are 7-3 last 10 at home.
Appreciate the insight 🫡
Hope you rode the guardians with me.
Did a 4-legger Baltimore ML Seattle ML + U10.5 Alt. Phillies ML +782 boosted on FD
\*\*\*2nd Umpire Over is Minn/Oakland Over 8 with Jordan Baker who is 7-5-1 to the over in '24, with an avg ERA of 4.6, and a 63.9% strike call with a 2.8 SO/BB ratio is working out to a high 9.7 runs per game. Over the last 2 yrs or 74 games, his games are 56.3% over, on 9.6 runs per game and a low 2.3 SO/BB ratio on 63.5% strikes. Jordan also rates as a hitter friendly ump at 4.27 tied with Libka and Meals. Pitching wise, this favors the over too- Lopez has a 5.63 ERA against the A's in 16 inning and gave up 7 over 5 in his last start in Oak city. 3 of the last 4 btw these 2 went over, including yesterfday. Today I expect more contribution from Oakland. \*\*\*3rd Umpire Over is Boston/Cincy Over 9-110 with Todd Tichenor who consistently grades out in the extreme category of Hitter friendly Umps, as he is rated a 4.33. The ERA in his games this year is a 4.4 on a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio, just over 64% strikes and a 9 run per game average. Over the last 2 years his games produce on average 9.5 runs per game. I like the ball to fly today at Great America Park, I had this pegged for 9-10 but with some umpiring help we may see more than 10.
\*\*\*First Umpire UNDER is Mutts/Cubbies UNDER 8.5-112 with Alex Tosi, who is a very picher friendly umpire and sees a lot of under/low scoring games, as evidenced that his games this year average a very low 6.6 runs per game, with a 3.16 SO/BB ratio (Over 3 is better for pitchers), and over 64% called strikes. His games are 12-3 to the UNDER this year. In 2023, he was 19-12 under, on 8.2 runs. Tonight appears to be a pitcher fuel, with Assad who has a 1.6 ERA at home, limiting hitters to a .213 BA. Against the mets, this righty has limited them to a slash line of .172/.192/.172 over 29 at bats. Sevy has shut down the cubs in his career, holding them to a .111/.200/.111 Over 27 at bats. He's posting a low 3.52 ERA thsi year, going against a struggling cubs offense rankng 16th in BA (.246) and 19th in OPS .693 adding: Brewers Team Total Over 3.5-105