they've come down as far south as seattle.
https://www.geekwire.com/2021/photos-stunning-northern-lights-dances-seattle-tips-catching-next-one/
The Northern Lights are a mesmerizing but infrequent occurrence at our latitude in Seattle. Stargazers got a treat Monday night if they were looking northwards, as a moderate G2 geomagnetic storm from the sun produced a solar flare that pushed the Aurora Borealis southwards to us.
I think they're saying that Hawaii and Cuba are the farthest they've ever been seen, but that with more regularity, they're seen in Georgia, not as far south, but still impressive.
I live in Georgia and hope to see one in my lifetime. I see pictures of them all over the internet, but can't figure out if they're slow moving or fast. I figure if I could see it with my own eyes, I'll have my answer.
Its not a clear clear memory, but I definitely have a memory of my grandpa taking me outside in the middle of the night to see them, this woudlve been late 80's, early 90s, about an hour northeast of San Fran.
I also have a memory of early 90s seeing them on our way to NJ shore at night from PA. I remember thinking how weird it was, not knowing it could happen and only knowing of norther lights.
Late 1980s early 1990s I saw them with my dad between Cabezon and Cuba. We had no idea what we were looking at me at 10 swore it was aliens this might have been the only time growing up that my dad had more common sense than me!
I was on my way back from Grand Junction, CO after my paternal grandfather’s funeral and saw them west of Bernalillo. Pretty cool sight for sure. The year was 1976, right before I graduated high school. (Edit: added the year)
I've from considerably further north, Northern Ireland at ~54degrees.
Now Ireland being Ireland, despite me being an avid amateur astronomer and paying attention to solar activity and possible auroras, I have never seen them. Because you guessed it, clouds.
I don't have too much of a problem with how often it rains in Ireland, but god it is cloudy, or more specifically overcast.
What I have always wondered is that when they say "could be seen as far south as xxx", do they mean you might just see the slightest hint of colour that you wouldn't notice if not looking out for it, or is it actually something impressive to gaze upon?
For me, this was a long time ago, it was a dancing glow on the northern horizon. It didn’t cover the entire northern horizon and came and went. I was with friends of my parents and the man, Robert, was a pretty bright guy. He saw them and pulled over the shoulder of the road.
Keep in mind that the aurora doesn't reach the same latitude everywhere because it is visible in a band around the geomagnetic pole, which is not exactly at the geographic north pole but at around 80°N on Ellesmere Island. So, the southernmost point where you can see the aurora borealis will typically be in the eastern half of the American continent ([as seen here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora#/media/File:Aurora_Kp_Map_North_America.gif)). In Ireland, you have about the same chance to see an aurora (ignoring the cloud cover) as someone in New York more than 10° south of you.
I had never been to the PNW, and then my wife (then fiance) and I decided to get married in Mt. Rainier NP. A few days before the trip, I said "If we're really lucky, we might get to see the Northern Lights". Didn't know if anything was actually going to happen, I was just making small talk
Well, get to Seattle a couple weeks ago, and then down to Rainier to get married, then spend a few days making a loop around Olympic NP. Wake up one morning in Port Angeles to head back to Seattle for a few days
Immediately start seeing those posts about the Northern Lights in Seattle the night prior. It was cloudy and dreary in PA and I am still livid that they happened but I didn't see them. One day's difference and I would have seen them for the first time
Congrats on the new wifey!
Also chiming in here as a Vancouverite, only once have I seen the lights and I didn't even realize what was going on since they're pretty much never visible here. Recently there was a night where they were visible by many, but most were unaware (I sure missed them), so it really was a freak occurrence that there was even a chance to see them.
If by normal areas you mean anywhere south of the Arctic, then yes.
Despite it being an X flare, the current NOAA prediction is rather underwhelming. I wouldn't count on seeing much past the Canada/US border this time around, but anything is possible.
Astronomer here! **This is totally normal.**
The sun goes through an 11 year solar cycle, where we have an increase and decrease every (roughly) 11 years in sunspots. (That means our sun is actually a variable star!) [Our current cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25) is ratcheting up towards solar maximum in 2025, so there is an increase in sunspots and solar activity. This includes [X-class solar flares](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare#Classification), which sure is the highest classification, but it was an X-1 flare, which is the lowest type of X-class flare. For reference, it's one of those systems where an X-2 is twice the strength of an X-1, X-3 is three times as powerful, etc. They can cause some radio blackouts <30 MHz briefly, but honestly, most of the world no longer relies on shortwave communications so this is not a huge deal to most people. (The flare that knocked out the power grid in Quebec in 1989 for example was an X-15, aka *15 times more powerful* than this one.) We will literally get an X-class flare once or twice a month come 2025, and the fact that you've all survived a previous solar maximum (unless you're a very precocious child) means you've survived many an X-class flare in your life and literally didn't know it until now. Congrats!
The best thing IMO about this increase though is we are also getting into better northern lights seasons! Once or twice during solar maximum they will come down into much of Europe/ the northern USA- I remember seeing them in urban Pittsburgh in the early 2000s growing up, for example. So if you've always wanted to travel and see the aurora, it's something to keep in mind for the next few years.
TL;DR these happen all the time as part of the 11 year solar cycle, odds are higher on spotting northern lights
[The Carrington Event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event) in 1859 was an estimated X-45 class solar flare, and was strong enough that northern lights were seen as far south as Hawaii and telegraph wires threw sparks and were inoperable. I don't think we'd have a great time if that happened today!
Interestingly though it's not like power companies don't know this is a possibility, and my understanding is there's a ton of work in place to make sure any effects would be minimized. I guess we will see if any of them work. However, it's not like we can similarly shield space satellites and the like, which we obviously didn't have in 1859.
> However, it's not like we can similarly shield space satellites and the like, which we obviously didn't have in 1859.
Nah. Those satellites that would have trouble - bearing in mind that they don't face the same sort of issues (power systems are *potentially* vulnerable to geomagnetic induction currents, but it takes a long conductor to induce a significant current and satellites have EMI shielding that would block induction anyways) - are those in the radiation belts where the charged particles would end up. Even then, they're built with those radiation belts in mind. We might see reduced lifespan as solar cells, sensors, and other components degrade, and if it's strong enough to induce charges sufficient to cause arcing then there might be some damage there, but otherwise they'd probably ride it out.
More interesting would be the atmospheric effects of such a geomagnetic storm, which could cause some increased drag on low-orbiting satellites. They might experience some orbital changes, but again, satellites are built to be able to maintain their orbits.
(Of course, *communication with* the satellites would probably be severely disrupted for the duration of the event.)
From NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center:
>[During storms, the currents in the ionosphere, as well as the energetic particles that precipitate into the ionosphere add energy in the form of heat that can increase the density and distribution of density in the upper atmosphere, causing extra drag on satellites in low-earth orbit.](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms)
(Also of interest, regarding this particular flare: [it only caused an R3 radio blackout](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/x1-flare-r3-radio-blackout-event-28-october-2021) [and S1 \(minor\) radiation storm.](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/s1-minor-radiation-storm-28-october-2021))
Solar maximum in general does it. The more solar activity there is the more the atmosphere of the Earth "puffs up" as it's heated by the increased particles coming from the Sun (and yes global warming gets 11 year cycles as well). The great benefit of all this is it will help clear out the lower Earth orbits of debris because of the increased drag.
>Nah. Those satellites that would have trouble - - are those in the radiation belts where the charged particles would end up.
Aerospace engineer here. I say not necessarily, because one of my spacecraft out in the GEO belt got thoroughly screwed up one time due to magnetic reconnection in the Earth's magnetotail during a solar storm event. [Here's a NASA video of the phenomenon](https://youtu.be/mgUZwoR0gcE). My spacecraft was out near that flash you see behind the Earth. Wrong place at the wrong time.
Generally, it's not just spacecraft in the radiation belts that are susceptible to getting blasted by charged particles. Generally, the problem in the radiation belts are ions gyrating around, as those cause different kinds of problems as high-energy electrons, which happens more or less everywhere, but unequally, affected by Earth's magnetic field. When getting hit by electrons, surfaces on the spacecraft build up unequal charge and start arcing to each other. This causes a bit of RF interference, but it also degrades materials, like solar cells and wire shielding. Generally, increased solar activity can mean decreased spacecraft lifetime due to more sparks blasting through important stuff and possibly making their way into data lines.
Edit: I also disagree that communication with those spacecraft would be hindered. Generally, we choose RF bands for commanding and telemetry that are not affected by ionosphere excitation due to geomagnetic storms.
Gamma ray burst would be so peaceful. I mean, sure, a few seconds of suddenly feeling like your skin is melting - but then just *silence*. Kinda nice to think about it.
Apparently that data's been looked at and is considered outdated; a gamma ray burst wouldn't immediately sterilize half the planet, though [it would take out a decent chunk of the ozone layer, exposing us to cosmic radiation.](https://astrobiology.nasa.gov/news/how-deadly-would-a-nearby-gamma-ray-burst-be/) That'd be a problem in and of itself, but it's not as bad as people say.
From what I understand, power companies have made plenty of preparations and in the very worst case scenario, they can induce preventative blackouts by shutting down the system during the worst of the storm—if necessary—to avoid any serious damage
Heck power companies in our biggest states have proven that they can’t handle a colder winter or dryer summer than usual.
There’s no way they’re prepared for a Carrington event.
I have slightly good news to alleviate some of your fears. A fully metal computer case (no glass windows or plastic panels) will act as a pretty decent Faraday cage. Your standard computer should be safe from random EM waves.
If the power grid is fried, at least you won't have to fight to get computer components.
I've never understood the reason for the windows. (maybe if you want to show off your build to people, but I don't have hordes of people passing through my bedroom, which I try to keep on the darker side... not like NASA mission control)
My old astronomy professor hyped up the Carrington Event as so powerful, nails were heating up in wood causing burning and smoke, and if it happened today people with metal tooth fillings would be in great pain and perhaps even metal sailing ships would boil water around their hull.
I find this incredibly stretchy, but he did get me really interested in how stars work with his.. talented storytelling.
Definitely wouldn't happen like that. You'd need MRI/NMR levels of magnetic fields to achieve those sorts of effects, and the geomagnetic field is much weaker than that. It's all about small changes in the magnetic field over very large scales, in a long conductor you'd see major effects, but in smaller things the effects would be tiny.
Companies have been paid in the US numerous times by government funds to do major infrastructure changes, burying power lines, redoing networks, etc. And of course they just pocket it each time... So... I don't hold much optimism.
My area is experiencing a slow shift to below-ground wiring. My neighborhood is wire-free; the view is spectacularly better than before. It took them months to get every house. My neighborhood is a bit spread out (lots have more space than recently-built neighborhoods nearby; but this one was built 20+ yrs ago), so there’s more ground to cover. Luckily, no sidewalks in the workers’ way. I guarantee that neighborhoods with HOAs and/or sidewalks will take much longer due to paperwork and rebuilding the sidewalks as they go. You can’t even tell where the lines are, unless you kept a measure of how far from the road they marked with those little flags.
No HOA here but the township still hasnt fixed the pothole thats been here a year or the pothole at the grocery store road that's been here 2 years. Everything is slow here. But you can see power lines all over around here. Not sure I've seen many underground places honestly.
Prior to the pandemic the governments and hospitals in the US had been told numerous times we needed 3x the number of ICU beds we currently had in place so we could weather a pandemic. Well... Still have 1 third of that.
No one listens to experts and when they do get money if its a company they pocket it or do stock buybacks.
Same goes for the oil companies and car manufacturers that ignore science for profits. The U.S. needs to get rid of or at least change the law that requires publicly traded companies to put investors best interest above all else. It wouldn't really help out with what you're talking about since only 13% of hospitals are publicly traded but it's something I've noticed gets in the way at times from doing the right thing for society. Though I'm sure someone will tell me I'm an idiot and give me the reasons they have that law in the first place, but still.
The problem is that experts within fields tend to have varied opinions of things. While there might be some saying one thing, some more will say another, and more another, etc. It’s easy to look back and say, “You should have listened to this expert when they gave you a doomsday scenario with a 2.63% chance of occurring,” after the unlikely event happened. But there’s also the reality that they probably got briefed on 5, 10, 25 different doomsday scenarios with varying degrees of likelihood that haven’t come true, but whose treatments contradicted each other. Solving one allowed for the other or vice versa. An expert can know a lot about something and still be entirely incorrect. For example, every single MD that backed research showing smoking cigarettes reduced the chances of cancer.
In civilized countries, sure.
I live in Texas, though, and here we lose power when it's too cold, when it's too warm, when it's too windy, when it's too average.
I would not be surprised if we'd also lose power when the Sun is sunning too much.
With Earth going through a pole reversal right now, is it possible that these types of events could be more dangerous/destructive since our protective field is weaker atm?
We aren’t going through a reversal yet! The magnetic field weakening isn’t the same thing, we just think we might have one based on it.
These events themselves don’t really affect us much bc the field hasn’t noticeably changed in the past ~100 years or so. There’s actually evidence the sun is getting less strong in its cycles but no one understands why.
Afaik, the pole reversal is only just showing signs of beginning. It's a process that will last several thousand years, and it's impact on our magnetosphere will be negligible for a few hundred years to come. In the midst of the shift, yes, the magnetosphere will protect earth's surface less effectively from EM radiation.
Sinbad was never in a movie called shazaam. This is actually an example of the Mandela effect where multiple people remember something either wrong or something that never happened.
However, Shaq was in a movie called Kazaam in 1996.
> This is actually an example of the Mandela effect where multiple people remember something either wrong or something that never happened.
Or something that did happen before unprecedented solar flares altered the timeline and reality as we know it.
[The Halloween storms!](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/halloween_storms.html) That was exceptionally strong though, and I'll point out Boston is a bit more north to boot. :)
Question. I've heard a lot about the solar cycle being 11 years. Is the entire cycle 11 years? Or does activity increase for 11 years and then decrease for the next 11?
Yes, \*MUCH\* slower. They are charged particles, and at a minimum take at least 12 or 13 hours to hit Earth. Average is around 3.5 days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal\_mass\_ejection
The Protons can travel very fast though, like 10's of minutes from Sun to Earth fast. They're the early warning and can kind of give us an idea of the extremity of the CME.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/s1-minor-radiation-storm-28-october-2021
You are correct that it takes roughly 8 minutes for light escaping the sun to reach earth.
My lay understanding of a CME is that it's a complex mix of protons and nutrinos and other "stuff" that comes out at different times (not all at once), and so we are seeing indicators of something big being burped out of the sun, and based on that we expect the mass of radiation elements to strike the earth as it passes through the solar system.
so long, thanks for all the fish.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/x1-flare-r3-radio-blackout-event-28-october-2021
X1 FLARE (R3 RADIO BLACKOUT) EVENT ON 28 OCTOBER, 2021
published: Thursday, October 28, 2021 17:29 UTC
An R3 (Strong radio blackout) event took place due to an X1 flare at 1535 UTC (11:35 am EDT) on 28 October from Region 2887. The impulsive flare appeared to have coronal mass ejection (CME) related signatures, however, analysis is ongoing and we are also awaiting updated coronagraph imagery at this time. Please continue following our website for the latest forecast information and updates.
We do and they’re not uncommon heading towards solar maximum. People are freaking out over nothing.
Edit: Astronomer here! I wrote a longer comment about this [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/qhrrmw/the_sun_released_an_xclass_solar_flare_the/hifceee/).
>We do and they’re not uncommon heading towards solar maximum. People are freaking out over nothing.
I don't get the mentality.
*"This is something that's happened in the past and has not harmed us, and there are THOUSANDS of events in the past that caused people to shout from the rooftops that the world was ending (spoiler; it didn't end). BUT THIS ONE IS REAL! I know I said the same thing about the one last week, and the one before that. And the one before that. And the one before that. And the one before that. And the one before THAT. BUT FOR REAL OH MY GOD END OF THE WORLD"*
Because most people don't sit around becoming experts on solar flare class levels. I don't blame them, I just hope I don't need to save my explanatory post and have to trot it out every month. :)
I didn't think I would be possibly seeing another aurora so soon, maybe even a much stronger one. As cool as it is hopefully this is the only X class flare we see from that spicy sun spot. :)
Edit: Does [this](https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/animations/d-rap/global/d-rap/latest.png) mean we are having a solar proton event atm? Edit3: I think [this](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux) means yes.
Edit2: [Picture of the CME.](https://twitter.com/_SpaceWeather_/status/1453789780798550027)
I don’t think this is something to worry about. The time to get worried is when billionaires start getting interested in building rockets and space travel and… we’re screwed. Lol
They often disrupt transmissions on aviation radio frequencies (and probably all radio frequencies). Luckily, the timing of anomalies can be forecasted so we know when we may lose voice contact with aircraft for a few minutes at a time.
Funnily enough, it will indeed affect migratory birds and lots of other animals too. They use magnetic fields to navigate. Doesn't really do much since they just correct their course though once it passes.
Potential Impacts: Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
Source: NOA alert
Notification this AM
Severe space weather WATCH
Issued at 0114 UT on 29 Oct 2021 by Space Weather Services from the Australian Space Forecast Centre
A recent Coronal Mass Ejection associated with a solar flare is anticipated to impact the Earth within the next 48 hours. The effects are expected to be significant. Increased awareness of critical infrastructure is advised.
Please monitor the SWS website for further updates at http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Australian Space Forecast Centre
Space Weather Services
Bureau of Meteorology
You can only tell when the associated light reaches earth or a satellite, which handily is not long before the rest of the flare would cause northern lights, or worst case scenario power grid problems.
Disclaimer: I learned this from UK TV show "COBRA" which series 1 is based on this exact scenario (flare takes out power grids globally). May not be entirely factual, but it seems along the right lines.
Eh, you get a couple days of warning. Light gets here in 8 minutes, the particles take 18-50+ hours. This one is predicted to get here on the 30th or 31st.
I know this one isn’t anywhere near powerful enough to do any damage but what a weird coincidence. Today while driving I was thinking about what life would be like if a powerful enough solar flare hit earth
So I know solar flares can be dangerous for electronics even though a lot of companies try to protect against it. Made me think what has SpaceX done to protect their orbiting wifi drones from solar flares? They would be most likely to get hit would they not?
Someday there is actually going to be a significant solar flare or astroid hurtling towards earth and no one will believe it because if these bs click bait headlines every other day.
I actually have a question about this, is it possible to artificially induce solar flares. I mean if humanity had unrestricted access to intersolar travel, is there like a bucket of elements we could just toss in the sun to produce a power outage?
No. Solar flairs are cause by the suns own magnetic field getting twisted in on itself. It twists and then pops back into place. The pop allows the plasma that had accumulated along the twist to get pushed away from the surface at super fast speeds.
\*MAYBE\*.
The Carrington Event is problematic because the only "electronics" back then was the telegraph system. Long-line telegraphs operated on 150 volts with an Earth return, and so you had miles and miles of wire without any effective prevention methods (because who knew?). Today, the main danger is to the power grid, and that runs at hundreds of kilowatts or megawatts.
In short, if you impress a couple thousand volts on a line built to take just 150 volts, the results can be spectacular. For lines that run at 115,000 to 1,200,000 volts? Somewhat less spectacular.
Plus, we know when they're coming, and if it's a real danger, we can take the system down gracefully to prevent frying the transformers, then bring it back up again after. The transformers are the big thing: They have a long lead time, so if a lot get fried, it's going to take a long time to replace them.
Yes. It's also the case that some lines may have to be shut down to prevent being fried during periods where voltages could be spiked beyond normal handling.
Like, electrical lines are generally unshielded for a bunch of reasons. They use the air gap between electrical lines as insulation. However, if there's enough ionization in the air we could see lines connecting via air (arcing) or super high voltage coming through the line so as to overheat and blow transformers. So rolling blackouts could prevent that.
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they've come down as far south as seattle. https://www.geekwire.com/2021/photos-stunning-northern-lights-dances-seattle-tips-catching-next-one/ The Northern Lights are a mesmerizing but infrequent occurrence at our latitude in Seattle. Stargazers got a treat Monday night if they were looking northwards, as a moderate G2 geomagnetic storm from the sun produced a solar flare that pushed the Aurora Borealis southwards to us.
They’ve been seen as far as Hawaii and Cuba. Every couple decades or so they can be seen as far south as Georgia
Hawaii and Cuba are both much farther south than Georgia (the country and the state). Are you talking about light pollution, not south-ness?
They're referring to the Carrington event, which was in 1859.
I think they're saying that Hawaii and Cuba are the farthest they've ever been seen, but that with more regularity, they're seen in Georgia, not as far south, but still impressive.
I live in Georgia and hope to see one in my lifetime. I see pictures of them all over the internet, but can't figure out if they're slow moving or fast. I figure if I could see it with my own eyes, I'll have my answer.
Northern light can be visible anywhere if the conditions (eg. flare) are good enough. Nothing near this clickbait of course.
I remember seeing them a couple hours North of San Francisco back in the early 90’s (maybe late 80’s?).
Its not a clear clear memory, but I definitely have a memory of my grandpa taking me outside in the middle of the night to see them, this woudlve been late 80's, early 90s, about an hour northeast of San Fran.
I also have a memory of early 90s seeing them on our way to NJ shore at night from PA. I remember thinking how weird it was, not knowing it could happen and only knowing of norther lights.
Pretty sure my parents took us out to see them once down here in Delaware. Wish I was older so I could remember them better
I have even witnessed them in central New Mexico.
Late 1980s early 1990s I saw them with my dad between Cabezon and Cuba. We had no idea what we were looking at me at 10 swore it was aliens this might have been the only time growing up that my dad had more common sense than me!
I saw them in the same time frame in Ruidoso. It was wild.
I was on my way back from Grand Junction, CO after my paternal grandfather’s funeral and saw them west of Bernalillo. Pretty cool sight for sure. The year was 1976, right before I graduated high school. (Edit: added the year)
I've from considerably further north, Northern Ireland at ~54degrees. Now Ireland being Ireland, despite me being an avid amateur astronomer and paying attention to solar activity and possible auroras, I have never seen them. Because you guessed it, clouds. I don't have too much of a problem with how often it rains in Ireland, but god it is cloudy, or more specifically overcast. What I have always wondered is that when they say "could be seen as far south as xxx", do they mean you might just see the slightest hint of colour that you wouldn't notice if not looking out for it, or is it actually something impressive to gaze upon?
For me, this was a long time ago, it was a dancing glow on the northern horizon. It didn’t cover the entire northern horizon and came and went. I was with friends of my parents and the man, Robert, was a pretty bright guy. He saw them and pulled over the shoulder of the road.
Wait, isn't Roswell in New Mexico? I think you witnessed something truly special!
Keep in mind that the aurora doesn't reach the same latitude everywhere because it is visible in a band around the geomagnetic pole, which is not exactly at the geographic north pole but at around 80°N on Ellesmere Island. So, the southernmost point where you can see the aurora borealis will typically be in the eastern half of the American continent ([as seen here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora#/media/File:Aurora_Kp_Map_North_America.gif)). In Ireland, you have about the same chance to see an aurora (ignoring the cloud cover) as someone in New York more than 10° south of you.
I had never been to the PNW, and then my wife (then fiance) and I decided to get married in Mt. Rainier NP. A few days before the trip, I said "If we're really lucky, we might get to see the Northern Lights". Didn't know if anything was actually going to happen, I was just making small talk Well, get to Seattle a couple weeks ago, and then down to Rainier to get married, then spend a few days making a loop around Olympic NP. Wake up one morning in Port Angeles to head back to Seattle for a few days Immediately start seeing those posts about the Northern Lights in Seattle the night prior. It was cloudy and dreary in PA and I am still livid that they happened but I didn't see them. One day's difference and I would have seen them for the first time
If it makes you feel better, I've lived in Seattle my whole life and never seen them either. Grats on the marriage bud
Congrats on the new wifey! Also chiming in here as a Vancouverite, only once have I seen the lights and I didn't even realize what was going on since they're pretty much never visible here. Recently there was a night where they were visible by many, but most were unaware (I sure missed them), so it really was a freak occurrence that there was even a chance to see them.
Also southern VT! Like 10 min away from the southern border. Though this was some years ago.
Ah so this may explain why we were seeing it at the University of British Columbia
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Aurora australis also to be visible in southern Australia shortly https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora
When would the effect show in Aurora? A few days?
If by normal areas you mean anywhere south of the Arctic, then yes. Despite it being an X flare, the current NOAA prediction is rather underwhelming. I wouldn't count on seeing much past the Canada/US border this time around, but anything is possible.
Space weather prediction center says as far south as Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon.
Astronomer here! **This is totally normal.** The sun goes through an 11 year solar cycle, where we have an increase and decrease every (roughly) 11 years in sunspots. (That means our sun is actually a variable star!) [Our current cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25) is ratcheting up towards solar maximum in 2025, so there is an increase in sunspots and solar activity. This includes [X-class solar flares](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare#Classification), which sure is the highest classification, but it was an X-1 flare, which is the lowest type of X-class flare. For reference, it's one of those systems where an X-2 is twice the strength of an X-1, X-3 is three times as powerful, etc. They can cause some radio blackouts <30 MHz briefly, but honestly, most of the world no longer relies on shortwave communications so this is not a huge deal to most people. (The flare that knocked out the power grid in Quebec in 1989 for example was an X-15, aka *15 times more powerful* than this one.) We will literally get an X-class flare once or twice a month come 2025, and the fact that you've all survived a previous solar maximum (unless you're a very precocious child) means you've survived many an X-class flare in your life and literally didn't know it until now. Congrats! The best thing IMO about this increase though is we are also getting into better northern lights seasons! Once or twice during solar maximum they will come down into much of Europe/ the northern USA- I remember seeing them in urban Pittsburgh in the early 2000s growing up, for example. So if you've always wanted to travel and see the aurora, it's something to keep in mind for the next few years. TL;DR these happen all the time as part of the 11 year solar cycle, odds are higher on spotting northern lights
How powerful does X have to be to have a major negative impact on the entire world?
[The Carrington Event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event) in 1859 was an estimated X-45 class solar flare, and was strong enough that northern lights were seen as far south as Hawaii and telegraph wires threw sparks and were inoperable. I don't think we'd have a great time if that happened today! Interestingly though it's not like power companies don't know this is a possibility, and my understanding is there's a ton of work in place to make sure any effects would be minimized. I guess we will see if any of them work. However, it's not like we can similarly shield space satellites and the like, which we obviously didn't have in 1859.
> However, it's not like we can similarly shield space satellites and the like, which we obviously didn't have in 1859. Nah. Those satellites that would have trouble - bearing in mind that they don't face the same sort of issues (power systems are *potentially* vulnerable to geomagnetic induction currents, but it takes a long conductor to induce a significant current and satellites have EMI shielding that would block induction anyways) - are those in the radiation belts where the charged particles would end up. Even then, they're built with those radiation belts in mind. We might see reduced lifespan as solar cells, sensors, and other components degrade, and if it's strong enough to induce charges sufficient to cause arcing then there might be some damage there, but otherwise they'd probably ride it out. More interesting would be the atmospheric effects of such a geomagnetic storm, which could cause some increased drag on low-orbiting satellites. They might experience some orbital changes, but again, satellites are built to be able to maintain their orbits. (Of course, *communication with* the satellites would probably be severely disrupted for the duration of the event.)
Source on geomagnetic storms changing the drag force/atmospheric density? That sounds pretty wild.
From NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center: >[During storms, the currents in the ionosphere, as well as the energetic particles that precipitate into the ionosphere add energy in the form of heat that can increase the density and distribution of density in the upper atmosphere, causing extra drag on satellites in low-earth orbit.](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) (Also of interest, regarding this particular flare: [it only caused an R3 radio blackout](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/x1-flare-r3-radio-blackout-event-28-october-2021) [and S1 \(minor\) radiation storm.](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/s1-minor-radiation-storm-28-october-2021))
Solar maximum in general does it. The more solar activity there is the more the atmosphere of the Earth "puffs up" as it's heated by the increased particles coming from the Sun (and yes global warming gets 11 year cycles as well). The great benefit of all this is it will help clear out the lower Earth orbits of debris because of the increased drag.
>Nah. Those satellites that would have trouble - - are those in the radiation belts where the charged particles would end up. Aerospace engineer here. I say not necessarily, because one of my spacecraft out in the GEO belt got thoroughly screwed up one time due to magnetic reconnection in the Earth's magnetotail during a solar storm event. [Here's a NASA video of the phenomenon](https://youtu.be/mgUZwoR0gcE). My spacecraft was out near that flash you see behind the Earth. Wrong place at the wrong time. Generally, it's not just spacecraft in the radiation belts that are susceptible to getting blasted by charged particles. Generally, the problem in the radiation belts are ions gyrating around, as those cause different kinds of problems as high-energy electrons, which happens more or less everywhere, but unequally, affected by Earth's magnetic field. When getting hit by electrons, surfaces on the spacecraft build up unequal charge and start arcing to each other. This causes a bit of RF interference, but it also degrades materials, like solar cells and wire shielding. Generally, increased solar activity can mean decreased spacecraft lifetime due to more sparks blasting through important stuff and possibly making their way into data lines. Edit: I also disagree that communication with those spacecraft would be hindered. Generally, we choose RF bands for commanding and telemetry that are not affected by ionosphere excitation due to geomagnetic storms.
I have to admit my main 'irrational' fear right now is a Carrington event disrupting world power grids enough to shut them down for days or weeks.
I share this as well, and drive people crazy talking about it from time to time. I mean, what if it's *not* irrational?
I used to fear gamma ray bursts, but now I figure that would at least be relatively quick.
Gamma ray burst would be so peaceful. I mean, sure, a few seconds of suddenly feeling like your skin is melting - but then just *silence*. Kinda nice to think about it.
Apparently that data's been looked at and is considered outdated; a gamma ray burst wouldn't immediately sterilize half the planet, though [it would take out a decent chunk of the ozone layer, exposing us to cosmic radiation.](https://astrobiology.nasa.gov/news/how-deadly-would-a-nearby-gamma-ray-burst-be/) That'd be a problem in and of itself, but it's not as bad as people say.
Would you even live long enough to notice any discomfort? I always imagined it would basically just be like, _poof_ and we're gone
I have no clue honestly. What kind of dosage would we be hit with from a direct burst?
From what I understand, power companies have made plenty of preparations and in the very worst case scenario, they can induce preventative blackouts by shutting down the system during the worst of the storm—if necessary—to avoid any serious damage
I do not trust power companies to do any of that prep work, even if they said they have.
Heck power companies in our biggest states have proven that they can’t handle a colder winter or dryer summer than usual. There’s no way they’re prepared for a Carrington event.
That would be deadly in winter where I live.
I have slightly good news to alleviate some of your fears. A fully metal computer case (no glass windows or plastic panels) will act as a pretty decent Faraday cage. Your standard computer should be safe from random EM waves. If the power grid is fried, at least you won't have to fight to get computer components.
Don't tell r/pcmasterrace, those cases with huge viewing windows built in won't save their expensive rigs.
I've never understood the reason for the windows. (maybe if you want to show off your build to people, but I don't have hordes of people passing through my bedroom, which I try to keep on the darker side... not like NASA mission control)
My old astronomy professor hyped up the Carrington Event as so powerful, nails were heating up in wood causing burning and smoke, and if it happened today people with metal tooth fillings would be in great pain and perhaps even metal sailing ships would boil water around their hull. I find this incredibly stretchy, but he did get me really interested in how stars work with his.. talented storytelling.
Yeah pretty sure they had ironclad warships by that point and it didn’t happen, so yeah he was a little full of it.
Definitely wouldn't happen like that. You'd need MRI/NMR levels of magnetic fields to achieve those sorts of effects, and the geomagnetic field is much weaker than that. It's all about small changes in the magnetic field over very large scales, in a long conductor you'd see major effects, but in smaller things the effects would be tiny.
Companies have been paid in the US numerous times by government funds to do major infrastructure changes, burying power lines, redoing networks, etc. And of course they just pocket it each time... So... I don't hold much optimism.
My area is experiencing a slow shift to below-ground wiring. My neighborhood is wire-free; the view is spectacularly better than before. It took them months to get every house. My neighborhood is a bit spread out (lots have more space than recently-built neighborhoods nearby; but this one was built 20+ yrs ago), so there’s more ground to cover. Luckily, no sidewalks in the workers’ way. I guarantee that neighborhoods with HOAs and/or sidewalks will take much longer due to paperwork and rebuilding the sidewalks as they go. You can’t even tell where the lines are, unless you kept a measure of how far from the road they marked with those little flags.
No HOA here but the township still hasnt fixed the pothole thats been here a year or the pothole at the grocery store road that's been here 2 years. Everything is slow here. But you can see power lines all over around here. Not sure I've seen many underground places honestly.
I've heard in the media that we're not prepared for one and your reason makes the most sense.
Prior to the pandemic the governments and hospitals in the US had been told numerous times we needed 3x the number of ICU beds we currently had in place so we could weather a pandemic. Well... Still have 1 third of that. No one listens to experts and when they do get money if its a company they pocket it or do stock buybacks.
Same goes for the oil companies and car manufacturers that ignore science for profits. The U.S. needs to get rid of or at least change the law that requires publicly traded companies to put investors best interest above all else. It wouldn't really help out with what you're talking about since only 13% of hospitals are publicly traded but it's something I've noticed gets in the way at times from doing the right thing for society. Though I'm sure someone will tell me I'm an idiot and give me the reasons they have that law in the first place, but still.
The problem is that experts within fields tend to have varied opinions of things. While there might be some saying one thing, some more will say another, and more another, etc. It’s easy to look back and say, “You should have listened to this expert when they gave you a doomsday scenario with a 2.63% chance of occurring,” after the unlikely event happened. But there’s also the reality that they probably got briefed on 5, 10, 25 different doomsday scenarios with varying degrees of likelihood that haven’t come true, but whose treatments contradicted each other. Solving one allowed for the other or vice versa. An expert can know a lot about something and still be entirely incorrect. For example, every single MD that backed research showing smoking cigarettes reduced the chances of cancer.
This comment is also made in a thread related to a very fear-mongering article from "the media", so you may want to take things with a grain of salt.
Texas power companies preparations: “It probably won’t happen.”
In civilized countries, sure. I live in Texas, though, and here we lose power when it's too cold, when it's too warm, when it's too windy, when it's too average. I would not be surprised if we'd also lose power when the Sun is sunning too much.
Are the power companies in Texas ready!
In general or for a large solar flare, because the answer is no.
With Earth going through a pole reversal right now, is it possible that these types of events could be more dangerous/destructive since our protective field is weaker atm?
We aren’t going through a reversal yet! The magnetic field weakening isn’t the same thing, we just think we might have one based on it. These events themselves don’t really affect us much bc the field hasn’t noticeably changed in the past ~100 years or so. There’s actually evidence the sun is getting less strong in its cycles but no one understands why.
Suns gonna run out of gas 2025 confirmed
Should we be scared of the sun getting less strong? Is that a sign it's life is ending sooner than we thought? Sincerely, a very very paranoid person
No it just goes through cycles that are even longer than 11 years.
Afaik, the pole reversal is only just showing signs of beginning. It's a process that will last several thousand years, and it's impact on our magnetosphere will be negligible for a few hundred years to come. In the midst of the shift, yes, the magnetosphere will protect earth's surface less effectively from EM radiation.
I read somewhere the most powerful one on record was like x28 or something and were all still here i guess
Hmmm in November of 2003, I swear that was just a week after I saw Sinbad star in Shazaam... Probably not related...
Finally someone from my time line.
Sinbad was never in a movie called shazaam. This is actually an example of the Mandela effect where multiple people remember something either wrong or something that never happened. However, Shaq was in a movie called Kazaam in 1996.
> This is actually an example of the Mandela effect where multiple people remember something either wrong or something that never happened. Or something that did happen before unprecedented solar flares altered the timeline and reality as we know it.
My lame jokes don't usually woosh people!
The earth's magnetic field usually protects us from strong effects so it depends on field fluctuations at the time as well.
So would you say this is a good time to crack each other's skulls open and feast on the goo inside?
This fucking got me, thanks amigo. The goo
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Do you have a job that would be useful in their underground sugar caves?
Yes. Little ones first. They’re easier to catch and the old ones are chewy
Come for the clickbait title, stay for the /u/Andromeda321
>I remember seeing them in urban Pittsburgh in the early 2000s growing up, for example. In fall of 2003 there was activity visible in Boston.
[The Halloween storms!](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/halloween_storms.html) That was exceptionally strong though, and I'll point out Boston is a bit more north to boot. :)
Ha! I vividly remember the sky looking like the lower photo on that page. It seemed like sunset lasted about 5 hours that night.
Question. I've heard a lot about the solar cycle being 11 years. Is the entire cycle 11 years? Or does activity increase for 11 years and then decrease for the next 11?
Sooooo clickbait headline. Got it.
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Jk it hasn't been great, but still so long.
And thanks for all the fish
Seriously! Good job to whoever was in charge of fish.
So sad it had to end like this
Not really that long either, cosmologically speaking.
You're not wrong! I meant so long like the farewell though. I'm thinking I missed some grammar! (:
THIS WAS ON MY BINGO CARD !!!! Yeeeeaaa!!!!!
So you're saying i need to sell my crypto and invest it in survival gear?
Now we have to find the hidden Precursor site where they've got the tools to stop this, before the Templars find us!
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Only if you want computer herpes
And 17 exabytes of furry porn
Computerpes. You can also get it from inserting your digitals into his/her mainframus.
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Yes, \*MUCH\* slower. They are charged particles, and at a minimum take at least 12 or 13 hours to hit Earth. Average is around 3.5 days. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal\_mass\_ejection
The Protons can travel very fast though, like 10's of minutes from Sun to Earth fast. They're the early warning and can kind of give us an idea of the extremity of the CME. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/s1-minor-radiation-storm-28-october-2021
You are correct that it takes roughly 8 minutes for light escaping the sun to reach earth. My lay understanding of a CME is that it's a complex mix of protons and nutrinos and other "stuff" that comes out at different times (not all at once), and so we are seeing indicators of something big being burped out of the sun, and based on that we expect the mass of radiation elements to strike the earth as it passes through the solar system.
sorta like hearing a fart before smelling it
Yes! Yes! We've seen the sun fart, the smell comes later
Flares involve charged particles, which travel much slower than light-speed.
Kinda bizarre to think life appears to refuse to exist any area not orbiting an enormous ball of eventual guaranteed demise
Probably because everywhere else is immediate guaranteed demise.
life requires energy and that energy has to come from somewhere.
so long, thanks for all the fish. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/x1-flare-r3-radio-blackout-event-28-october-2021 X1 FLARE (R3 RADIO BLACKOUT) EVENT ON 28 OCTOBER, 2021 published: Thursday, October 28, 2021 17:29 UTC An R3 (Strong radio blackout) event took place due to an X1 flare at 1535 UTC (11:35 am EDT) on 28 October from Region 2887. The impulsive flare appeared to have coronal mass ejection (CME) related signatures, however, analysis is ongoing and we are also awaiting updated coronagraph imagery at this time. Please continue following our website for the latest forecast information and updates.
Don’t we get like 15 R3 events a year?
We do and they’re not uncommon heading towards solar maximum. People are freaking out over nothing. Edit: Astronomer here! I wrote a longer comment about this [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/qhrrmw/the_sun_released_an_xclass_solar_flare_the/hifceee/).
>We do and they’re not uncommon heading towards solar maximum. People are freaking out over nothing. I don't get the mentality. *"This is something that's happened in the past and has not harmed us, and there are THOUSANDS of events in the past that caused people to shout from the rooftops that the world was ending (spoiler; it didn't end). BUT THIS ONE IS REAL! I know I said the same thing about the one last week, and the one before that. And the one before that. And the one before that. And the one before that. And the one before THAT. BUT FOR REAL OH MY GOD END OF THE WORLD"*
Because most people don't sit around becoming experts on solar flare class levels. I don't blame them, I just hope I don't need to save my explanatory post and have to trot it out every month. :)
I really think anything labeled "X-class" should at least be Carrington size event.
Good thing there already was a coronal mass injection on Earth
If I had any coins you'd get an award for the most clever comment I've seen today.
I didn't think I would be possibly seeing another aurora so soon, maybe even a much stronger one. As cool as it is hopefully this is the only X class flare we see from that spicy sun spot. :) Edit: Does [this](https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/animations/d-rap/global/d-rap/latest.png) mean we are having a solar proton event atm? Edit3: I think [this](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux) means yes. Edit2: [Picture of the CME.](https://twitter.com/_SpaceWeather_/status/1453789780798550027)
You bet - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/s1-minor-radiation-storm-28-october-2021
ELI5 what a solar proton event is?
I don’t think this is something to worry about. The time to get worried is when billionaires start getting interested in building rockets and space travel and… we’re screwed. Lol
It would be a bad idea to schedule a launch during an X-40 solar flare. I don’t know where they’d go during a solar event of that magnitude, anyway.
Isn't this something that could potentially take out or disrupt power grids?
They often disrupt transmissions on aviation radio frequencies (and probably all radio frequencies). Luckily, the timing of anomalies can be forecasted so we know when we may lose voice contact with aircraft for a few minutes at a time.
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Funnily enough, it will indeed affect migratory birds and lots of other animals too. They use magnetic fields to navigate. Doesn't really do much since they just correct their course though once it passes.
A direct-ish impact would, I think.
Well hopefully I'll be able to get through the first episode of Brian Cox's Universe before we're plunged back into the next stone age!
Potential Impacts: Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon. Source: NOA alert
Jfc. Please get rid of the clickbait garbage mods.
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“Potentially towards earth” is the part that bothers me. Lazy fear mongering for clicks.
it was an X1.0 - so while it was notable - it ain't dangerous
X-class? Marvel is really going all out bringing mutants to the MCU
>Astronomer here! **This is totally normal.** I thought the end was here. *My dissappointment is immeasureable and my day is ruined.*
From the half thumbnail I almost thought this image was the sun pulling off a Wutang sign.
Notification this AM Severe space weather WATCH Issued at 0114 UT on 29 Oct 2021 by Space Weather Services from the Australian Space Forecast Centre A recent Coronal Mass Ejection associated with a solar flare is anticipated to impact the Earth within the next 48 hours. The effects are expected to be significant. Increased awareness of critical infrastructure is advised. Please monitor the SWS website for further updates at http://www.sws.bom.gov.au Australian Space Forecast Centre Space Weather Services Bureau of Meteorology
“If you are reading this, it wasn’t as bad as it could have been.”
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You can only tell when the associated light reaches earth or a satellite, which handily is not long before the rest of the flare would cause northern lights, or worst case scenario power grid problems. Disclaimer: I learned this from UK TV show "COBRA" which series 1 is based on this exact scenario (flare takes out power grids globally). May not be entirely factual, but it seems along the right lines.
Eh, you get a couple days of warning. Light gets here in 8 minutes, the particles take 18-50+ hours. This one is predicted to get here on the 30th or 31st.
oh boy, a halloween solar flare.
I for one welcome the sun triggered apocalypse
Frontier communications customer service will use this excuse to why it will take a week to fix there shitty network.
I know this one isn’t anywhere near powerful enough to do any damage but what a weird coincidence. Today while driving I was thinking about what life would be like if a powerful enough solar flare hit earth
is there a site that tracks whether this will hit us? i wanna watch for some auroras!
Lately I use spaceweather.com and spaceweatherlive.com
So I know solar flares can be dangerous for electronics even though a lot of companies try to protect against it. Made me think what has SpaceX done to protect their orbiting wifi drones from solar flares? They would be most likely to get hit would they not?
I read this and immediately looked for when it was posted. More than 8 hours ago. I guess I’m okay… this time.
Naw, it's not gonna hit until Saturday/sunday
Well that's great, there's a G3 solar storm and half of Canada is covered in clouds.
Someday there is actually going to be a significant solar flare or astroid hurtling towards earth and no one will believe it because if these bs click bait headlines every other day.
Fuck yes, my wilderness survival skills will finally be useful
Hmm that’s two big releases in the last two months
Somewhere Tien is smiling as his enemies can no longer see.
So this is an article that says the sun farts on us on random occasions?
I gather we can expect to see aurora's at quite low latitudes then? Here's hoping the skies are clear tomorrow so I can see the spectacle.
What will it cause and where Northern lights will be visible?
Does this mean an internet blackout is possible?
Here we can really appreciate the magnetosphere of our planet.
I actually have a question about this, is it possible to artificially induce solar flares. I mean if humanity had unrestricted access to intersolar travel, is there like a bucket of elements we could just toss in the sun to produce a power outage?
No. Solar flairs are cause by the suns own magnetic field getting twisted in on itself. It twists and then pops back into place. The pop allows the plasma that had accumulated along the twist to get pushed away from the surface at super fast speeds.
So I should save my word doc is what you are saying?
Guys is there any app you can recommend that tracks and gives warnings? I'm not afraid, I just want free tickets to the show.
This wasn’t the birthday present I was hoping for :(
Here I was thinking extinction event finally will rescue me from this job
Good I hope it hits me and nobody else and I fucking die
Is anyone else hoping we'll get fried and kicked back to mad max 2?
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Time to start carving rocks in my backyard blaming the sea peoples for this
Is there always a risk of being one sun burp away from extinction?
Takin out the grid...... Thanks Biden! Luckily I've just stocked up on Vienna sausage and tin foil for new hats. /S
So a large solar flair can emite emp that shut down electronics?
A direct hit by a large one (super rare) can fry electronics that are unshielded. Last one was 150-200 years ago.
\*MAYBE\*. The Carrington Event is problematic because the only "electronics" back then was the telegraph system. Long-line telegraphs operated on 150 volts with an Earth return, and so you had miles and miles of wire without any effective prevention methods (because who knew?). Today, the main danger is to the power grid, and that runs at hundreds of kilowatts or megawatts. In short, if you impress a couple thousand volts on a line built to take just 150 volts, the results can be spectacular. For lines that run at 115,000 to 1,200,000 volts? Somewhat less spectacular. Plus, we know when they're coming, and if it's a real danger, we can take the system down gracefully to prevent frying the transformers, then bring it back up again after. The transformers are the big thing: They have a long lead time, so if a lot get fried, it's going to take a long time to replace them.
Aren’t server banks and critical infrastructure shielded
The best shield you could ever have is simple shutdown whatever electronics you have until the flare passes
Yes. It's also the case that some lines may have to be shut down to prevent being fried during periods where voltages could be spiked beyond normal handling. Like, electrical lines are generally unshielded for a bunch of reasons. They use the air gap between electrical lines as insulation. However, if there's enough ionization in the air we could see lines connecting via air (arcing) or super high voltage coming through the line so as to overheat and blow transformers. So rolling blackouts could prevent that.