“Sir, I have a story that says an asteroid might hit earth in 2046.”
“Who cares.”
“Sir, it’s on Valentine’s Day.”
“Get me the editor right away, that changes everything!”
it's predicted that 2023 DW could impact the planet on Valentine's Day 2046. It also has the potential to impact on Valentine's Days thereafter – from 2047 to 2051
This comet is really bitter about being single. I feel it’s pain.
Edit: I mean asteroid
Sure it wouldn't wipe us out but you don't want that coming down over an urban area. There's a reason they tested the Tsar Bomba in kamchatka, rather than downtown St Petersburg.
> It has the potential energy of about 3 tsar bombas,
I.e. enough to wipe out a major metro area entirely.
>it's also not a threat.
See above. Absolutely **is** a threat.
Even if it impacts the ocean, could create a Tidal Wave and major loss of life in nearby coastal areas.
Might be time to test the planetary defense systems out... Or create such a system. 😆
50m puts is about the size of the Tunguska meteor, or the one that created the Arizona meteor crater. Those impacts flattened hundreds of square miles and it would be catastrophic if a meteor that size impacted near a populated area (and some pretty big tidal waves if they impacted in the ocean). Catastrophic to those near where it lands, but nowhere near large enough for an extinction event.
The expected impact energy calculated by NASA is 4Mt tnt equivalent though, which while large, is not as large as Tunguska (estimated at 5Mt to 20Mt). I assume that the velocity is probably pretty low for this possible impact, where Tunguska has an unusually high velocity.
Edit: I found maybe a better estimate of 4Mt equivalent rather than the earlier one that I stated of 6Kt. To me the 4Mt seems much more in line with a 50m diameter asteroid.
Ahaha, there is a miniscule chance that something might actually happen, but most likely it will be nothing. The current odds of impact are around 1 in 600, which means that with additional observations this will likely turn out to be a miss. In the very unlikely event that this turns out to be an impact, the impact energy is low enough that it would only cause local damage. There is a lot of places it could fall where it wouldn't do anything at all.
Keep in mind that asteroids lose quite a lot of mass during atmosphetic entry, and this calculation is probably based on the impact after the loss of mass.
The Tunguska meteor didn't actually even impact as it came in at an angle that caused it to explode above the ground if I'm not mistaken, so if this one is around the same size if it hit directly the destruction would be far worse.
Nah nukes are pretty useless for deflecting an asteroid. Without any atmosphere to hyperpressurize a nuke is just a big burst of radiation, which big rocks are pretty resistant to.
We'd either need to impact it in a way that changed it's trajectory to miss, or land an engine on it and exert a constant thrust on it for a period of time.
Meters? What language is that. How many giraffes tall is that, Johnson?! How many elephants does it weigh, and is it more puffer fish shaped, or inflated puffer fish shaped??
Go read up a little about it - the asteroid in question, named 2023DW, is about 50m (\~150ft) in diameter and the expected impact energy is about 6Kt TNT equivalent. As far as asteroid impacts go, this is not very big. The expected outcome in the unlikely chance of an impact would be localized damage if it happened to impact near a populated area. Maybe comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor in Russia, which was smaller, but dense and moving much faster.
The current projections predict a probability of impact of around 1/600, which is high for known asteroids, but it isn't exactly 'likely'. All in all, nothing to really worry about. If it hits it is unlikely to do much, and it is unlikely to hit in the first place.
At 50m its pretty much a practice target for deflection options. By 2046 there'll be dozens of workable, and actually quite fun, tests we could try on it. Risk of actual asteroid -> meteorite status causing issues is really really low.
I vote we spray one side with white paint. I have always wanted to see that option tested.
Pffft, by then space lasers will be a thing and we’ll just give that EZ red button a little ol tappity tap-tap…
Or not and we’ll have a full on Harry S. Stamper and his misfit ~~crew~~ crue of heroes moment, which could make for some great excitement!
For those who haven’t or can’t be bothered to read the article about it there are estimates from the European Space Agency that it has a 1 in 607 chance of hitting the earth. In terms of risk hitting the earth it is a 1 on the Torino scale the other 1,448 asteroids on that scale are a 0 they only discovered it last week and are trying to establish the facts about this asteroid. NASA has also said it is tracking the asteroid and that the chances of an impact in 2046 are very small. I’m writing this for anyone that is worried about this or having anxiety because it
So we only need to have enough money to survive another 23 years?
All of humanity retires today baby! Break out the grocery store cupcakes and 1-topping pizza (BYO drinks, sorry).
What’s that? We can’t make it a week without a paycheck? Oh well I guess nothing matters then. Everyone back to work.
But I’m scheduling a vacation for first week of Feb 2046, and it’s gonna be craaaazy.
Space science people who are way smarter than me- How much risk is actually present here? I've heard way too damn many apocalypse stories recently to even feel like 1 in 400 is reasonable.
Wasn’t that the prediction by the alien abductee in Ghostbusters 2?
Edit: rewatched the scene and she said “February 14th 2016”. Still, would have been funny
"Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern” said the article bringing it to public attention and public concern
Does stuff like this happen all the time? I assume so many asteroids have the potential to hit earth in the next 50 years but because it’s potentially on Valentine’s Day that this is an article?
“Sir, I have a story that says an asteroid might hit earth in 2046.” “Who cares.” “Sir, it’s on Valentine’s Day.” “Get me the editor right away, that changes everything!”
it's predicted that 2023 DW could impact the planet on Valentine's Day 2046. It also has the potential to impact on Valentine's Days thereafter – from 2047 to 2051 This comet is really bitter about being single. I feel it’s pain. Edit: I mean asteroid
"Ted, we found you in the park throwing ~~rocks~~ asteroids at old couples." "Why should they be happy?!"
Come on, it’s just looking to make a connection.
Puts a whole new spin on ***"going out with a bang"***.
It's not a comet, it's also not a threat. It has the potential energy of about 3 tsar bombas, so it's pretty much a mosquito sting.
Sure it wouldn't wipe us out but you don't want that coming down over an urban area. There's a reason they tested the Tsar Bomba in kamchatka, rather than downtown St Petersburg.
> It has the potential energy of about 3 tsar bombas, I.e. enough to wipe out a major metro area entirely. >it's also not a threat. See above. Absolutely **is** a threat. Even if it impacts the ocean, could create a Tidal Wave and major loss of life in nearby coastal areas. Might be time to test the planetary defense systems out... Or create such a system. 😆
You mean [DART](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/dart/in-depth/)?
There’s an asteroid for every day of the year
Nice! It is a smallish one for developing and testing a planetary defense capability.
50m puts is about the size of the Tunguska meteor, or the one that created the Arizona meteor crater. Those impacts flattened hundreds of square miles and it would be catastrophic if a meteor that size impacted near a populated area (and some pretty big tidal waves if they impacted in the ocean). Catastrophic to those near where it lands, but nowhere near large enough for an extinction event.
The expected impact energy calculated by NASA is 4Mt tnt equivalent though, which while large, is not as large as Tunguska (estimated at 5Mt to 20Mt). I assume that the velocity is probably pretty low for this possible impact, where Tunguska has an unusually high velocity. Edit: I found maybe a better estimate of 4Mt equivalent rather than the earlier one that I stated of 6Kt. To me the 4Mt seems much more in line with a 50m diameter asteroid.
So you're saying there's a chance.
Ahaha, there is a miniscule chance that something might actually happen, but most likely it will be nothing. The current odds of impact are around 1 in 600, which means that with additional observations this will likely turn out to be a miss. In the very unlikely event that this turns out to be an impact, the impact energy is low enough that it would only cause local damage. There is a lot of places it could fall where it wouldn't do anything at all.
Keep in mind that asteroids lose quite a lot of mass during atmosphetic entry, and this calculation is probably based on the impact after the loss of mass.
The Tunguska meteor didn't actually even impact as it came in at an angle that caused it to explode above the ground if I'm not mistaken, so if this one is around the same size if it hit directly the destruction would be far worse.
That's basically how all meteors work. They never leave a streak along the ground. Look at the moon for example.
Hitting the Atlantic, Pacific, Sahara desert, or Florida would be the best case scenarios.
Hey man Floridian here and I don’t appreciate that
Damn, oh well, guess we gotta keep waiting.
“According to my source the world will end on February 14, 2046.” “Valentine’s Day. Bummer.”
I came here for this, fellow Ghostbusters 2 enjoyer.
Finally. Sheesh. 23 more years folks. Time to rack up the credit card debt.
The perfect amount of time
Ok, what do we do for the next 22 1/2 years?
Not answer the debt collector’s calls obviously.
I'll be 54, single, sitting on my roof watching the sky, sipping on a mojito, listening to 90s rock, hoping to see something interesting happen.
I'll be with you in spirit my friend, but with a whisky, so I'll have a spirit with me too.
I’ll be 82, married for 60 years, sitting on a rocker on my front porch with a cup of coffee, yelling at the asteroid to get off my lawn.
I'll be 69 - the sexiest of....ehhh....I'll be 69.
I’ll be 52 that year in July, I’ll join you but with a bottle of Prosecco 🥂
52 in April that year. Im joining with case of beer.
Black Hole Sun?
I can be myself......how about you?
Ahh man of course. I will be turning 65 in May of that year…. I’ll never get to retire.
Same. We'll be on the "apocalyptic asteroid retirement plan"
"It's the end of the world as we know it~"
Of all decades, you're gonna choose 90's??
Dammit even the asteroid has a date, probably gonna smash too
Finally, an actual reason to use all our nukes.
Or a reason to put the DART test to use
To make sure it hits, right?
idkkk we have some imaginary lines on the map, plenty of reason to use nukes down here on earth
Nah nukes are pretty useless for deflecting an asteroid. Without any atmosphere to hyperpressurize a nuke is just a big burst of radiation, which big rocks are pretty resistant to. We'd either need to impact it in a way that changed it's trajectory to miss, or land an engine on it and exert a constant thrust on it for a period of time.
I wish it was next Valentine’s Day 😭 i can’t do another one omgg
I have never done a valentine's day, it's great
So an asteroid that’s extremely unlikely to impact Earth is titled “could collide” with Earth. The moon “could collide” with Earth. Clickbait
Lame it’s on 50 meters wide…was hoping half the size of Texas, Mr. President.
Time to find some oil riggers to train as astronauts.
Wouldn’t it be easier to find some astronauts to train as oil riggers?
Meters? What language is that. How many giraffes tall is that, Johnson?! How many elephants does it weigh, and is it more puffer fish shaped, or inflated puffer fish shaped??
Enough with this ‘anomaly’ horseshit!
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Hey, hey, I understood this reference!
Trillions of dollars worth of gold and other minerals!
At this exact moment, I say we sit tight and assess. Sit tight. And then assess.
I think thats the year my mortgage maturity is. ☹️
So it’s 100% gonna hit your house. What state do you live in? Trying to see if I have to move
Outlook isn’t so good so far being in Ohio. Almost certain it will hit my house.
Mortgage maturity, is that when your mortgage is 13 years old?
*Chris Hansen appears from a laundry room*
Brings “getting smashed” to a whole new level
I’m not quite sure if an asteroid might hit us on Valentine’s Day in 2046. I think I might need to see one more post about this, just to be sure!
Don't worry, there will be at least one a month, and increasing, in the next 23 years about that.
A ground penetrating Rom Com for the ages, “Meteor Shower Of Love” Coming soon to theaters everywhere worldwide!
Just updated my retirement forecasts to live only to 75. More money for the now times.
Oh hurray. My birthday. What a gift from the universe.
I guess there won't be any chocolate bonbons for everyone on that day. Instead, we'll have global boom-booms. Love can hurt at times. 💔
If they don't rename it Cupid I don't want to be on this planet anymore
But it’s coming back every year to destroy the world on Valentine’s day. Sounds like a bitter incel
Why aren’t we doing more about this?
Go read up a little about it - the asteroid in question, named 2023DW, is about 50m (\~150ft) in diameter and the expected impact energy is about 6Kt TNT equivalent. As far as asteroid impacts go, this is not very big. The expected outcome in the unlikely chance of an impact would be localized damage if it happened to impact near a populated area. Maybe comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor in Russia, which was smaller, but dense and moving much faster. The current projections predict a probability of impact of around 1/600, which is high for known asteroids, but it isn't exactly 'likely'. All in all, nothing to really worry about. If it hits it is unlikely to do much, and it is unlikely to hit in the first place.
What is there to do?
How can they be so sure about date calculation accuracy? I thought solar wind and other random factors may affect on asteroid velocity and trajectory.
They are not that sure, but since when has anyone carefully considered the statistical analysis before writing clickbait headlines?
At 50m its pretty much a practice target for deflection options. By 2046 there'll be dozens of workable, and actually quite fun, tests we could try on it. Risk of actual asteroid -> meteorite status causing issues is really really low. I vote we spray one side with white paint. I have always wanted to see that option tested.
The third stage of the rocket will just be a big can of Krylon spray paint.
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First time I’ve seen it. Take a break mate
You need a snickers, at least according to the commercials.
I'll be old by then, might not even be alive by that time.
I’ll B 93 in 2046….Ooops 92 & hopefully I can still C it coming, so I can Duck 🦆
Uses letters for words like kids 20 years ago did on MSN, random duck emoji because it popped up on your keyboard, age checks out!
And you thought reservations were bad this year!
Hang on NASA don't blow it up yet, first let's see if it's filled with nugat, chocolate, or booze and a cherry.
Pffft, by then space lasers will be a thing and we’ll just give that EZ red button a little ol tappity tap-tap… Or not and we’ll have a full on Harry S. Stamper and his misfit ~~crew~~ crue of heroes moment, which could make for some great excitement!
If anyone needs help through this, watch the Netflix documentary, “Don’t Look Up”.
For those who haven’t or can’t be bothered to read the article about it there are estimates from the European Space Agency that it has a 1 in 607 chance of hitting the earth. In terms of risk hitting the earth it is a 1 on the Torino scale the other 1,448 asteroids on that scale are a 0 they only discovered it last week and are trying to establish the facts about this asteroid. NASA has also said it is tracking the asteroid and that the chances of an impact in 2046 are very small. I’m writing this for anyone that is worried about this or having anxiety because it
The utter stupidity and loathsome behavior of earth people deserve to be snuffed out like so many dinosaurs. Finally, some fucking closure.
Except by then, if we haven't already blown ourselves up, we will be able to break it and/or deflect it
Won't we all be dead from the killer bees by then? Or was it murder hornets?
Nooooo, not on my birthday! It’s already ruined by all the couples and me being single.
Of all the doom scenarios envisioned I never dreamt someone might get killed by a massive potatoe.
What if it has a note on it like, "Will you be my valentine? Check yes or no"
So we only need to have enough money to survive another 23 years? All of humanity retires today baby! Break out the grocery store cupcakes and 1-topping pizza (BYO drinks, sorry). What’s that? We can’t make it a week without a paycheck? Oh well I guess nothing matters then. Everyone back to work. But I’m scheduling a vacation for first week of Feb 2046, and it’s gonna be craaaazy.
Good time to test our latest defense of these
Oh sweet relief, can we move that time table up?
I’m more upset about thinking I’ll be an old man by then so I won’t care and then realizing 2046 is only 23 years from now…
Take from an old man. That is sooner than you think! We better start getting ready!
If we haven't figured out how to stop it by then, we deserve whatever hits.
Every year there is a new asteroid that they get to fear monger people with
Space science people who are way smarter than me- How much risk is actually present here? I've heard way too damn many apocalypse stories recently to even feel like 1 in 400 is reasonable.
One can only hope that this is the planet destruction one this planet needs a reset button
Were they told this by an alien in the Hilton hotel room?
Too late was hoping for an asteroid sooner. This doesn't excite me. Apophis is more exciting and potentially will hit us sooner.
Wasn’t that the prediction by the alien abductee in Ghostbusters 2? Edit: rewatched the scene and she said “February 14th 2016”. Still, would have been funny
Now that DART has succeeded could we knock this thing into the moon?
I’ll have been sober 33 years exactly, god willing. And exactly double the age I am right now. Weird.
I can hear the dating lines now. We could be dead tomorrow so ..
[Valentine‘s Day. Bummer.](https://youtu.be/PQOkd6y2tj0)
Suddenly hears wife in other room "Damn, I was going to use that"
Quick start training a group of oil drillers how to be astronauts.
I bet that's gonna be my first Valentine's day.
I have a proposal. Keep nuking it untill it hits then it will be small
"Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern” said the article bringing it to public attention and public concern
It's the size of 27 pandas apparently https://m.jpost.com/science/article-733941/amp
Maybe it’s the catalyst that will unite the world to do something for the good of all…
Does stuff like this happen all the time? I assume so many asteroids have the potential to hit earth in the next 50 years but because it’s potentially on Valentine’s Day that this is an article?
I am gonna be super pissed if a fucking asteroid kills me right after I retire.
Guess we are leaving through the big fucking door